Mediator
05-04 19:12
市场定价不早就给到三年后去了？不然以为有今天的股价？
美光CEO：AI才刚开始，但内存已经不够了，今年DRAM与NAND需求或吞噬过半市场
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好马回头
05-05 10:37
好马回头
供不应求，就会继续涨价，就这么简单的道理。
Mediator
:
现在股价早就已经计价了这262728三年全部的产能收入，就这么简单的道理
什么也没有了～
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-04 18:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美光科技CEO表示，随着推理规模扩大，token需求将持续攀升，而token生成速度依赖更快、更大容量的内存——"内存已成为客户的战略资产"。他强调，当前面临的核心矛盾不是需求或定价，而是供给本身极度紧张且无法快速扩产。</p></blockquote><p>AI对DRAM和NAND的需求正在以超出产业供给能力的速度膨胀。按当前趋势，这部分需求今年预计将超过内存行业总可寻址市场（TAM）的50%——而据分析师判断，供给瓶颈在2028年之前不太可能得到实质性缓解。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>CEO Sanjay Mehrotra近日接受CNBC采访时直言，AI产业仍处于"早起阶段"（First Innings）。他指出，随着推理规模扩大，token需求将持续攀升，而token生成速度依赖更快、更大容量的内存——"内存已成为客户的战略资产"。他强调，当前面临的核心矛盾不是需求或定价，而是供给本身极度紧张且无法快速扩产。</p><p>美光刚刚公布的2026财年Q2业绩佐证了这一判断：公司营收、毛利率、每股收益及自由现金流均创历史新高，Q3预计将再度刷新纪录。</p><h2 id=\"id_2347871637\">供给缺口：2028年前难见拐点</h2><p>美光指出，传统服务器与AI服务器的需求均保持强劲，但同时受到DRAM和NAND供应紧张的制约。英国《金融时报》援引分析师观点称，考虑到新建晶圆厂所需的建设周期，供应紧缺局面在2028年之前不太可能缓解。</p><p>韩国媒体Global Economic的报道则给出了更具体的量化预期：随着面向NVIDIA Vera Rubin等下一代AI GPU的12层HBM4开始放量，更为谨慎的预测认为到2027年行业可能仅能满足约60%的DRAM需求。这一供需格局将巩固内存厂商的定价权，但硬币的另一面是，若量产进度未达预期，厂商的市场地位同样可能承压。</p><p>需求侧的推力仍在加速。Agentic AI工作负载正推动CPU的内存支持规格向400GB扩展——约为当前水平的4倍。NVIDIA Vera Rubin、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> MI400等下一代AI GPU均将搭载HBM4，在带宽提升的同时大幅扩展容量上限。LPDDR则凭借功耗效率优势，正成为大规模AI部署中的首选方案。</p><h2 id=\"id_2516650232\">美光的产品应对：HBM4已供货，HBM4E明年量产</h2><p>面对紧张的供需环境，美光正沿多条产品线推进下一代布局。公司目前已为NVIDIA Vera Rubin平台供应36GB（12-Hi）HBM4 DRAM，现有HBM3工艺预计达到成熟良率。下一代HBM4E内存计划明年开始量产爬坡。</p><p>在LPDDR领域，美光近期推出基于LPDDR5X的256GB SOCAMM2方案，可提供最高2TB容量。DDR5方面，公司正为NVIDIA Groq 3 LPX供货，Groq LPU单芯片支持最高12TB容量。</p><p>消费端同样感受到供给紧张的传导效应。美光预计PC和智能手机出货量将出现低双位数下滑，主要受供应受限和价格上涨驱动。一个值得关注的趋势信号是：32GB正在成为本地运行Agentic AI工作流的PC标准内存配置。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) 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