杀疯了！特斯拉降到历史最低价，意欲何为？

华尔街见闻2023-01-06

特斯拉被“逼到墙角”了吗？特斯拉又双叒叕降价了。1月6日，特斯拉官网显示，特斯拉国产车型大幅降价，Model 3起售价22.99万元，Model Y起售价25.99万元。特斯拉同时宣布Model S、Model X定价，分别为78.99万元起售、87.99万元起售。这是特斯拉2023年的第一次降价，也是半年以来除促销优惠活动外的第二次直接降价。值得注意的是，本次降价幅度也是特斯拉历次降价之最，已...

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精彩评论

Aoeivu
2023-01-06
Aoeivu
理想我觉得还是有戏，蔚来我造手机之后就开始不看好。
- Aoeivu:
  [微笑]我觉得拿小鹏和蔚来和理想比是侮辱了理想，脚踏实地造车就比亚迪和理想
- fincc:
  理想市值很快将是蔚来和小鹏之和
荷马先生
2023-01-06
荷马先生
成本是最大竞争力
jammyXP
2023-01-06
jammyXP
我去年6月提的modely立亏四万[流泪]
- jammyXP:
  你是懂摊薄成本的
- txpg:
  应该庆幸买的不是股票
- Johnsonk:
  再买一辆，摊薄成本
iAm22
2023-01-06
iAm22
这一顿猛如虎的操作之后，当下环境不妙的是谁？难道小编不知道？
问问任总用什么手机
2023-01-06
问问任总用什么手机
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
日牙湖小小凡
2023-01-06
日牙湖小小凡
我看其他公司不是不想跟，是没能力。市场会给出答案。

发表看法

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What is Tesla's intention to drop to the lowest price in history?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e036fa26bcf06265979d9b38ec9478e","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"特斯拉被“逼到墙角”了吗？特斯拉又双叒叕降价了。1月6日，特斯拉官网显示，特斯拉国产车型大幅降价，Model 3起售价22.99万元，Model Y起售价25.99万元。特斯拉同时宣布Model S、Model X定价，分别为78.99万元起售、87.99万元起售。这是特斯拉2023年的第一次降价，也是半年以来除促销优惠活动外的第二次直接降价。值得注意的是，本次降价幅度也是特斯拉历次降价之最，已跌破历史最低价，其中Model Y长续航版降价最多，达到了48000元。如此大刀阔斧的降价促销，或许表明特斯拉为了提高销量已经“杀红了眼”，也可能暗示了当下特斯拉的处境确实不妙。在上海工厂的推动下，特斯拉曾近进入过一段产能暴增期，规模效应为特斯来带来了远高于其他车企的毛利率，也成为了特斯拉降价促销、马斯克喊出年销量150万辆的底气所在。然而，本周四乘联会发布的数据显示，特斯拉上海超级工厂12月交付量55796辆，较11月份下降44%，同比下降21%，为五个月以来的最低水平。去年12月24日到今年1月2日，上海超级工厂放假停产，预计还将在本月晚些时候春节期间继续停产，也引发了市场对于“特斯拉卖不动”了的担忧。稍早时候，特斯拉发布了令人失望的2022年第四季度生产和交付报告，连续第三个季度交付量不及预期，且特斯拉2022年全年的总交付量达到131万，并未达到150万辆的目标。凡此种种，华尔街机构认为特斯拉已出现供应过剩，下调了特斯拉的评级与目标价：Cowen公司对特斯拉的目标价从205美元大砍至122美元，花旗表示，在特斯拉正在大量增加产能之际，交付数据不及预期，可能会加剧人们对其未来需求的担忧，对特斯拉的评级为中性。特斯拉也“迎来”了2023年的第一个交易日的开门黑，股价盘中一度暴跌15%，创两年多来最大盘中跌幅，刷新2020年8月份以来的最低位。特斯拉被“逼到墙角”？不少分析师已经纷纷发出警告：不要低估了特斯拉所面临危机的严重性。本周，Bernstein下调了对特斯拉的评级和目标股价，并认为2023年度的（交付）数据可能会“出现重大调整”：我们还担心，在利率上升以及消费者支出放缓之际，市场可能面临更大压力，继续对特斯拉等估值较高的股票造成更为严重的影响。华尔街见闻在VIP文章《特斯拉的“最终幻想”又来到了梦碎的关口》中指出，从8月拜登签署的抗通胀法案，到特斯拉供应链问题，再到电动车市场的激烈竞争，种种原因造成了特斯拉库存的膨胀，也许已将特斯拉再次拖入了“产能地狱”——而这次是过剩的2.0版本。摩根士丹利在报告中指出，由于产量超过交付量近56000辆，特斯拉的渠道库存在一年内翻了两番。为了迅速清理库存，特斯拉在2022下半年才开启了“史无前例”的降价促销活动，这也必然对其利润率造成了侵蚀。马斯克此前就警告称，2023年特斯拉的利润率将降低，他说：2023年将会是一场相当严重的经济衰退，严重程度将与2009年相当。在经济衰退期间，利润率将很低，甚至是负的。特斯拉的毛利率高于其他任何公司，这给了其更多的空间，来降低毛利率以维持或增加需求。同时，特斯拉在二手车市场上也遇到了难题，根据Edmunds的数据显示，特斯拉二手车的价格正以快于其他汽车制造商的速度下降。11月，特斯拉二手车的平均成交价格较7月份的峰值下降17%，整个二手车市场的平均价格在此期间下降了4%。11月，二手特斯拉在经销商库存中的平均库存时间为50天，而所有品牌二手车的平均库存时间为38天。媒体分析称，如果特斯拉二手车价格继续加速下跌，或将蚕食新车销量。此外，特斯拉的供应过剩与汽车业的整体需求减退有关。在美联储造成的高利率环境下，越来越多的分析师警告汽车行业需求的萎缩。投行Wedbush分析师Dan Ives在给媒体的一封电子邮件中写道：特斯拉的需求明显出现裂缝，(第四季度)数据并不乐观。由于消费者通常通过分期付款购买或租赁汽车，因此更高的利率会直接影响消费者的购买决策，甚至减少购买。美国汽车经销商Cox Automotive的首席经济学家Jonathan Smoke警告：汽车行业正从供应问题转变为需求问题，这对未来一年的收入和利润来说不是好兆头。Great Hill Capital董事长Thomas Hayes则表示，特斯拉的股票正面临着高利率、税损抛售以及重仓基金抛售的“完美风暴”。特斯拉还能降价？正如上文马斯克所言，特斯拉的毛利率高于其他任何公司，这给予了更多的降价空间。锂猫实验室此前曾测算，从毛利率水平来看，特斯拉与毛利率最高的理想相比，尚有8.59%的降价空间——以Model 3为例，现价25万的低配版将降价至22.8万左右——这已接近本次降价后的22.9万元。与毛利率最低的小鹏作比较，特斯拉则有近20%的降价空间——以Model 3为例，现价25万的低配版将降价至20万左右。来源：各公司财报，锂猫实验室制图从净利率水平看，如果特斯拉保持和比亚迪类似的净利润率，特斯拉也还有10%左右的降价空间——Model 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