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脸厚胆大心狠
女人心软裤带松，男人心软一生穷！
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脸厚胆大心狠
2018-10-25
$AMD(AMD)$ 盘前成交量681．6万说明什么呢？🤔
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-02-22
$百度(BIDU)$ 财报都是超预期，为什么股价还是跌了？
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-02-25
$京东(JD)$ 财报肯定不好，经济下滑，性丑闻带来交易量减少，还花几十亿买了个大酒店。
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-03-08
$网易(NTES)$ 为什么就你可以涨？
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-02-22
$AMD(AMD)$ AMD的GPU有希望抢夺英伟达的GPU市场么？
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-03-05
$京东(JD)$ 不知道为什么财报这么差都可以涨到这么多？
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-02-21
$京东(JD)$ 有大事发生？中概股就它跌了
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-02-28
$京东(JD)$ 月活和用户数增长很低，高开低走
脸厚胆大心狠
2019-03-08
$京东(JD)$ 下个星期一大盘还会跌么？
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——唐纳德•特朗普","listText":"真正的股神不研究K线图，而是自己画K线图。 ——唐纳德•特朗普","text":"真正的股神不研究K线图，而是自己画K线图。 ——唐纳德•特朗普","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494746409337040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":493952384168712,"gmtCreate":1761614822059,"gmtModify":1761615161954,"author":{"id":"53618817290676","authorId":"53618817290676","name":"脸厚胆大心狠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"53618817290676","authorIdStr":"53618817290676"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以抄底或者现在是不是应该对冲。 我自己现在有5成多头仓位，因为就像文章里写的，准备点现金抄底。但对于这次崩盘我也没有做特别充分的准备，哪怕在国庆节前写了有VIX大单赌暴跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL\">$VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$ </a>。因为7月份之后做空氛围一直有，不过被多头打爆了。 先说结论，虽然VIX涨幅低于4月，从做空细节上大盘跌幅略超出空头预期，所以本次下跌虽然非常值得抄底，但需要谨慎观察再出手。","listText":"可以抄底或者现在是不是应该对冲。 我自己现在有5成多头仓位，因为就像文章里写的，准备点现金抄底。但对于这次崩盘我也没有做特别充分的准备，哪怕在国庆节前写了有VIX大单赌暴跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL\">$VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$ </a>。因为7月份之后做空氛围一直有，不过被多头打爆了。 先说结论，虽然VIX涨幅低于4月，从做空细节上大盘跌幅略超出空头预期，所以本次下跌虽然非常值得抄底，但需要谨慎观察再出手。","text":"可以抄底或者现在是不是应该对冲。 我自己现在有5成多头仓位，因为就像文章里写的，准备点现金抄底。但对于这次崩盘我也没有做特别充分的准备，哪怕在国庆节前写了有VIX大单赌暴跌 $VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$ 。因为7月份之后做空氛围一直有，不过被多头打爆了。 先说结论，虽然VIX涨幅低于4月，从做空细节上大盘跌幅略超出空头预期，所以本次下跌虽然非常值得抄底，但需要谨慎观察再出手。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/493952384168712","repostId":"488205013782920","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":488205013782920,"gmtCreate":1760198768544,"gmtModify":1760238002321,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"美股回调3%，5%还是10%？","htmlText":"周五发完标题为“月底回调”的帖子后没几分钟就崩盘了，我想这跟说好的不一样啊。既然提前了，我想大家现在最关心的就是回调到什么点位可以抄底或者现在是不是应该对冲。我自己现在有5成多头仓位，因为就像文章里写的，准备点现金抄底。但对于这次崩盘我也没有做特别充分的准备，哪怕<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/484278687167200\" target=\"_blank\">在国庆节前写了有VIX大单</a>赌暴跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX%2020251119%2032.0%20CALL\">$VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$</a>。因为7月份之后做空氛围一直有，不过被多头打爆了。先说结论，虽然VIX涨幅低于4月，从做空细节上大盘跌幅略超出空头预期，所以本次下跌虽然非常值得抄底，但需要谨慎观察再出手。因为周五的期权数据要到周一盘前才会披露，所以本文采用的是周三和周四的期权开仓数据，对分析结果影响不大，主要是看看空头是怎么预判这次回调的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>从期权开仓可以看出本轮下跌空头布局很早，行权价非常有层次。10月8号开仓数据里有一些末日单腿看跌期权，这是平时开仓数据里比较罕见的，价外单方向末日买入。有一些腿甚至废了，比如9号到期659put和664put。但10号到期 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251010 659.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251010 659.0 PUT$ </a> 和13号到期651put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251013%20651.0%20PUT\">$SPY 2</a>","listText":"周五发完标题为“月底回调”的帖子后没几分钟就崩盘了，我想这跟说好的不一样啊。既然提前了，我想大家现在最关心的就是回调到什么点位可以抄底或者现在是不是应该对冲。我自己现在有5成多头仓位，因为就像文章里写的，准备点现金抄底。但对于这次崩盘我也没有做特别充分的准备，哪怕<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/484278687167200\" target=\"_blank\">在国庆节前写了有VIX大单</a>赌暴跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX%2020251119%2032.0%20CALL\">$VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$</a>。因为7月份之后做空氛围一直有，不过被多头打爆了。先说结论，虽然VIX涨幅低于4月，从做空细节上大盘跌幅略超出空头预期，所以本次下跌虽然非常值得抄底，但需要谨慎观察再出手。因为周五的期权数据要到周一盘前才会披露，所以本文采用的是周三和周四的期权开仓数据，对分析结果影响不大，主要是看看空头是怎么预判这次回调的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>从期权开仓可以看出本轮下跌空头布局很早，行权价非常有层次。10月8号开仓数据里有一些末日单腿看跌期权，这是平时开仓数据里比较罕见的，价外单方向末日买入。有一些腿甚至废了，比如9号到期659put和664put。但10号到期 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251010 659.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251010 659.0 PUT$ </a> 和13号到期651put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251013%20651.0%20PUT\">$SPY 2</a>","text":"周五发完标题为“月底回调”的帖子后没几分钟就崩盘了，我想这跟说好的不一样啊。既然提前了，我想大家现在最关心的就是回调到什么点位可以抄底或者现在是不是应该对冲。我自己现在有5成多头仓位，因为就像文章里写的，准备点现金抄底。但对于这次崩盘我也没有做特别充分的准备，哪怕在国庆节前写了有VIX大单赌暴跌 $VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$。因为7月份之后做空氛围一直有，不过被多头打爆了。先说结论，虽然VIX涨幅低于4月，从做空细节上大盘跌幅略超出空头预期，所以本次下跌虽然非常值得抄底，但需要谨慎观察再出手。因为周五的期权数据要到周一盘前才会披露，所以本文采用的是周三和周四的期权开仓数据，对分析结果影响不大，主要是看看空头是怎么预判这次回调的。$标普500ETF(SPY)$从期权开仓可以看出本轮下跌空头布局很早，行权价非常有层次。10月8号开仓数据里有一些末日单腿看跌期权，这是平时开仓数据里比较罕见的，价外单方向末日买入。有一些腿甚至废了，比如9号到期659put和664put。但10号到期 $SPY 20251010 659.0 PUT$ 和13号到期651put $SPY 2","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5f0b68147ba065bb7a05c2be952e91"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b58dea18cd5038c91cce9ff0392b72"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ae5f798da09d2394308938336cadb9"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/488205013782920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":11,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":493947907969480,"gmtCreate":1761614027807,"gmtModify":1761614034035,"author":{"id":"53618817290676","authorId":"53618817290676","name":"脸厚胆大心狠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"53618817290676","authorIdStr":"53618817290676"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 自从进入9月之后每天都有振奋人心的消息传来，AI使用频率呈指数增长后，一切基础设备都变的非常紧缺。 这次轮到AMD享受暴涨待遇，和OpenAI达成60亿美元交易后，距离万亿市值门槛又更近了一步。不过在此之前我们要先看看AMD暴涨后的下一步安排是什么。 首先整体的期权未平仓情况，暴涨当日大量头部看涨期权进行关仓，无论是做多做空都达到了止盈止损线。但未见大量远期开仓，多为近期开仓，主要原因可能是暴涨后iv升高，另外分析师报告还没出，远期规划有待商榷。 看跌期权变动不大，也是同样的道理，重大利好当前，也没有做空的理由。 周一开仓情况，看涨期权开仓集中在230～250区间，多空都有，形成集中持仓区，估计过两天会形成近两周的头部阻力位。 比较明显的做空iv卖出看涨期权选择了11月14日到期270call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251114 270.0 CALL\">$AMD 20251114 270.0 CALL$ </a> ，非常谨慎。 看跌期权开仓显示非常看涨，总体以sell put200为主，我们sell put可以选择190 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251010 190.0 PUT\">$AMD 20251010 190.0 PUT$ </a> 。 是的，虽然AMD暴涨了23%，但还是可以继续做多，市场没有看空，也没有看空理由。 观察到一个远期大单roll仓，平仓12月到期180call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251219 180.0 CALL\">$AMD 20251219 180.0 CALL$ </a>，买入2026年2月20日到期300call","listText":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 自从进入9月之后每天都有振奋人心的消息传来，AI使用频率呈指数增长后，一切基础设备都变的非常紧缺。 这次轮到AMD享受暴涨待遇，和OpenAI达成60亿美元交易后，距离万亿市值门槛又更近了一步。不过在此之前我们要先看看AMD暴涨后的下一步安排是什么。 首先整体的期权未平仓情况，暴涨当日大量头部看涨期权进行关仓，无论是做多做空都达到了止盈止损线。但未见大量远期开仓，多为近期开仓，主要原因可能是暴涨后iv升高，另外分析师报告还没出，远期规划有待商榷。 看跌期权变动不大，也是同样的道理，重大利好当前，也没有做空的理由。 周一开仓情况，看涨期权开仓集中在230～250区间，多空都有，形成集中持仓区，估计过两天会形成近两周的头部阻力位。 比较明显的做空iv卖出看涨期权选择了11月14日到期270call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251114 270.0 CALL\">$AMD 20251114 270.0 CALL$ </a> ，非常谨慎。 看跌期权开仓显示非常看涨，总体以sell put200为主，我们sell put可以选择190 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251010 190.0 PUT\">$AMD 20251010 190.0 PUT$ </a> 。 是的，虽然AMD暴涨了23%，但还是可以继续做多，市场没有看空，也没有看空理由。 观察到一个远期大单roll仓，平仓12月到期180call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251219 180.0 CALL\">$AMD 20251219 180.0 CALL$ </a>，买入2026年2月20日到期300call","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 自从进入9月之后每天都有振奋人心的消息传来，AI使用频率呈指数增长后，一切基础设备都变的非常紧缺。 这次轮到AMD享受暴涨待遇，和OpenAI达成60亿美元交易后，距离万亿市值门槛又更近了一步。不过在此之前我们要先看看AMD暴涨后的下一步安排是什么。 首先整体的期权未平仓情况，暴涨当日大量头部看涨期权进行关仓，无论是做多做空都达到了止盈止损线。但未见大量远期开仓，多为近期开仓，主要原因可能是暴涨后iv升高，另外分析师报告还没出，远期规划有待商榷。 看跌期权变动不大，也是同样的道理，重大利好当前，也没有做空的理由。 周一开仓情况，看涨期权开仓集中在230～250区间，多空都有，形成集中持仓区，估计过两天会形成近两周的头部阻力位。 比较明显的做空iv卖出看涨期权选择了11月14日到期270call $AMD 20251114 270.0 CALL$ ，非常谨慎。 看跌期权开仓显示非常看涨，总体以sell put200为主，我们sell put可以选择190 $AMD 20251010 190.0 PUT$ 。 是的，虽然AMD暴涨了23%，但还是可以继续做多，市场没有看空，也没有看空理由。 观察到一个远期大单roll仓，平仓12月到期180call $AMD 20251219 180.0 CALL$ ，买入2026年2月20日到期300call","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/493947907969480","repostId":"486740656631960","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":486740656631960,"gmtCreate":1759843441287,"gmtModify":1759843468644,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"AMD：目标300","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> 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自从进入9月之后每天都有振奋人心的消息传来，AI使用频率呈指数增长后，一切基础设备都变的非常紧缺。这次轮到AMD享受暴涨待遇，和OpenAI达成60亿美元交易后，距离万亿市值门槛又更近了一步。不过在此之前我们要先看看AMD暴涨后的下一步安排是什么。首先整体的期权未平仓情况，暴涨当日大量头部看涨期权进行关仓，无论是做多做空都达到了止盈止损线。但未见大量远期开仓，多为近期开仓，主要原因可能是暴涨后iv升高，另外分析师报告还没出，远期规划有待商榷。看跌期权变动不大，也是同样的道理，重大利好当前，也没有做空的理由。周一开仓情况，看涨期权开仓集中在230～250区间，多空都有，形成集中持仓区，估计过两天会形成近两周的头部阻力位。比较明显的做空iv卖出看涨期权选择了11月14日到期270call $AMD 20251114 270.0 CALL$ ，非常谨慎。看跌期权开仓显示非常看涨，总体以sell put200为主，我们sell put可以选择190 $AMD 20251010 190.0 PUT$ 。是的，虽然AMD暴涨了23%，但还是可以继续做多，市场没有看空，也没有看空理由。观察到一个远期大单roll仓，平仓12月到期180call $AMD 20251219 180.0 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25 万块英伟达 H100/H200 GPU，全球首个 ExaFLOP 级 AI 超级集群就是它建的，连 OpenAI 训练大模型都要找它租算力。更关键的是，这公司背后站着英伟达，新芯片能比对手早拿 5-8 个月，这种 “特权” 在算力军备竞赛里简直是核武器。","listText":"现在它手上握着 25 万块英伟达 H100/H200 GPU，全球首个 ExaFLOP 级 AI 超级集群就是它建的，连 OpenAI 训练大模型都要找它租算力。更关键的是，这公司背后站着英伟达，新芯片能比对手早拿 5-8 个月，这种 “特权” 在算力军备竞赛里简直是核武器。","text":"现在它手上握着 25 万块英伟达 H100/H200 GPU，全球首个 ExaFLOP 级 AI 超级集群就是它建的，连 OpenAI 训练大模型都要找它租算力。更关键的是，这公司背后站着英伟达，新芯片能比对手早拿 5-8 个月，这种 “特权” 在算力军备竞赛里简直是核武器。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/493803824865568","repostId":"491922672246856","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":491922672246856,"gmtCreate":1761119461246,"gmtModify":1761191060450,"author":{"id":"4218081059847062","authorId":"4218081059847062","name":"新财富资讯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503648c6c3264bc296cb3194c98655ca","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4218081059847062","authorIdStr":"4218081059847062"},"themes":[],"title":"股价半年涨3倍，英伟达「亲儿子」CoreWeave： 是算力神话还是估值泡沫？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">$富国银行(WFC)$</a> 一、小新带你识股：这只 AI 算力股凭什么逆势暴涨？ 最近美股震荡得让人揪心，纳斯达克指数月初单周回调超 3%，但有只股票却走出了独立行情 ——CoreWeave（CRWV）从 9月的 84 美元一路冲到 125 美元，这段时间最高时股价摸过 153 美元，半年时间股价翻了 3 倍还多。作为盯盘多年的老股民，小新起初以为又是蹭 AI 热点的 “昙花股”，深入研究后才发现，这公司竟是英伟达藏在幕后的 “算力操盘手”。 可能有人还没听过这只票，先给大家科普下：CoreWeave2017 年成立，最早靠加密货币挖矿起家，2019 年转型做 AI 算力服务，今年刚上市就成了美股明星。现在它手上握着 25 万块英伟达 H100/H200 GPU，全球首个 ExaFLOP 级 AI 超级集群就是它建的，连 OpenAI 训练大模型都要找它租算力。更关键的是，这公司背后站着英伟达，新芯片能比对手早拿 5-8 个月，这种 “特权” 在算力军备竞赛里简直是核武器。 二、拆解爆发密码：3 组数据看懂 CRWV 的核心底气 1. 收入增速：比火箭还快的增长曲线 这两年 CRWV 的营收增长堪称 “教科书","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">$富国银行(WFC)$</a> 一、小新带你识股：这只 AI 算力股凭什么逆势暴涨？ 最近美股震荡得让人揪心，纳斯达克指数月初单周回调超 3%，但有只股票却走出了独立行情 ——CoreWeave（CRWV）从 9月的 84 美元一路冲到 125 美元，这段时间最高时股价摸过 153 美元，半年时间股价翻了 3 倍还多。作为盯盘多年的老股民，小新起初以为又是蹭 AI 热点的 “昙花股”，深入研究后才发现，这公司竟是英伟达藏在幕后的 “算力操盘手”。 可能有人还没听过这只票，先给大家科普下：CoreWeave2017 年成立，最早靠加密货币挖矿起家，2019 年转型做 AI 算力服务，今年刚上市就成了美股明星。现在它手上握着 25 万块英伟达 H100/H200 GPU，全球首个 ExaFLOP 级 AI 超级集群就是它建的，连 OpenAI 训练大模型都要找它租算力。更关键的是，这公司背后站着英伟达，新芯片能比对手早拿 5-8 个月，这种 “特权” 在算力军备竞赛里简直是核武器。 二、拆解爆发密码：3 组数据看懂 CRWV 的核心底气 1. 收入增速：比火箭还快的增长曲线 这两年 CRWV 的营收增长堪称 “教科书","text":"$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $微软(MSFT)$ $富国银行(WFC)$ 一、小新带你识股：这只 AI 算力股凭什么逆势暴涨？ 最近美股震荡得让人揪心，纳斯达克指数月初单周回调超 3%，但有只股票却走出了独立行情 ——CoreWeave（CRWV）从 9月的 84 美元一路冲到 125 美元，这段时间最高时股价摸过 153 美元，半年时间股价翻了 3 倍还多。作为盯盘多年的老股民，小新起初以为又是蹭 AI 热点的 “昙花股”，深入研究后才发现，这公司竟是英伟达藏在幕后的 “算力操盘手”。 可能有人还没听过这只票，先给大家科普下：CoreWeave2017 年成立，最早靠加密货币挖矿起家，2019 年转型做 AI 算力服务，今年刚上市就成了美股明星。现在它手上握着 25 万块英伟达 H100/H200 GPU，全球首个 ExaFLOP 级 AI 超级集群就是它建的，连 OpenAI 训练大模型都要找它租算力。更关键的是，这公司背后站着英伟达，新芯片能比对手早拿 5-8 个月，这种 “特权” 在算力军备竞赛里简直是核武器。 二、拆解爆发密码：3 组数据看懂 CRWV 的核心底气 1. 收入增速：比火箭还快的增长曲线 这两年 CRWV 的营收增长堪称 “教科书","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5deac58e88c384aa81e5f7aba5a4cf3","width":"1024","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491922672246856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":493792818610240,"gmtCreate":1761575591005,"gmtModify":1761575593691,"author":{"id":"53618817290676","authorId":"53618817290676","name":"脸厚胆大心狠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"53618817290676","authorIdStr":"53618817290676"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"仔细想想...$摩根大通(JPM)$ 敢放贷380亿刀，肯定是十拿九稳能连本带利收回啊。$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 绝对是未来人工智能的扛把子，这还用怀疑？","listText":"仔细想想...$摩根大通(JPM)$ 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换句话说，只要你使用互联网上的服务，你就要向亚马逊交税。这就是亚马逊的终极格局。 核心业务的关键逻辑 为了说明这个观点，我们来重新回顾一下亚马逊CEO杰夫·贝佐斯钦点的几块核心业务。 首先是亚马逊的云服务，AWS。 可以回忆一下AWS服务是怎么诞生的：当时亚马逊的内部系统已经支撑不住公司的发展了，技术团队试图找一个一劳永逸的方式解决内部服务问题，于是开始开发云服务平台AWS的雏形。 结果做到一半的时候他们意识到，独立开发一套这样的系统非常费时费力，而且不仅亚马逊需要，很多大大小小的公司都用得着。于是他们决定把这个服务外部化、商业化，最终成就了这样一个明星业务。 现在AWS云服务平台已经是全世界性价比最高的云服务了。不管是通用电气这样的大公司，还是普通的创业小公司，都可以把自己的系统建立在AWS上，而且是随用随取随付费，和家里用电没有什么区别。 你会发现，在这整套商业逻辑里，有这么几个关键点： AWS云服务平台的前期投入和固定成本很高，比如买服务器，养大量的工程师等等； AWS云服务平台诞生之初就有一个非常好的大客户，就是亚马逊自己的电商业务。这个客户使得AWS平台不仅能够深刻地洞察需求，还能不断迭代自己的技术和服务； AWS云服务非常受益于规模效应。也就是越多的人用，这些前期成本和固定成本均摊下来的就越低。所以把AWS开放给外部，开放给全世界，AWS也就能更加便宜。也就更难有人和它竞争。 带着这三点思考，我们来看另一个亚马逊的核心业","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 很多不熟悉亚马逊的人，会把亚马逊归类为电商公司；一些用过亚马逊多元化服务的人，会说它是一家平台公司；还有一些人比较重视技术，认为亚马逊未来会是一家人工智能的公司。 我认为，这些都把亚马逊的格局想小了。不管是电商、平台，还是人工智能，都只是亚马逊的手段，不是目的。 亚马逊的终极野心是：向所有网上的活动“收税”。 换句话说，只要你使用互联网上的服务，你就要向亚马逊交税。这就是亚马逊的终极格局。 核心业务的关键逻辑 为了说明这个观点，我们来重新回顾一下亚马逊CEO杰夫·贝佐斯钦点的几块核心业务。 首先是亚马逊的云服务，AWS。 可以回忆一下AWS服务是怎么诞生的：当时亚马逊的内部系统已经支撑不住公司的发展了，技术团队试图找一个一劳永逸的方式解决内部服务问题，于是开始开发云服务平台AWS的雏形。 结果做到一半的时候他们意识到，独立开发一套这样的系统非常费时费力，而且不仅亚马逊需要，很多大大小小的公司都用得着。于是他们决定把这个服务外部化、商业化，最终成就了这样一个明星业务。 现在AWS云服务平台已经是全世界性价比最高的云服务了。不管是通用电气这样的大公司，还是普通的创业小公司，都可以把自己的系统建立在AWS上，而且是随用随取随付费，和家里用电没有什么区别。 你会发现，在这整套商业逻辑里，有这么几个关键点： AWS云服务平台的前期投入和固定成本很高，比如买服务器，养大量的工程师等等； AWS云服务平台诞生之初就有一个非常好的大客户，就是亚马逊自己的电商业务。这个客户使得AWS平台不仅能够深刻地洞察需求，还能不断迭代自己的技术和服务； AWS云服务非常受益于规模效应。也就是越多的人用，这些前期成本和固定成本均摊下来的就越低。所以把AWS开放给外部，开放给全世界，AWS也就能更加便宜。也就更难有人和它竞争。 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因此，在过去三个月上涨30%之后，我们会避开京东。","text":"当京东$京东(JD)$发布完整2018财年年报时，我们应该有机会更好地了解公司业务的潜在现金流表现，这可能支持对公司更积极的看法。 然而，最近一份的季度财报数据表明，京东是一个不具吸引力的投资案例：公司业绩一直不佳；自建的物流网络的战略非常昂贵，其创造的上门快递服务成本远远高于其快递竞争对手。 因此，在过去三个月上涨30%之后，我们会避开京东。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/419619","repostId":"1903159908","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":415560,"gmtCreate":1551719452264,"gmtModify":1704791394198,"author":{"id":"53618817290676","authorId":"53618817290676","name":"脸厚胆大心狠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"53618817290676","authorIdStr":"53618817290676"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东(JD)$ 不知道为什么财报这么差都可以涨到这么多？","listText":"$京东(JD)$ 不知道为什么财报这么差都可以涨到这么多？","text":"$京东(JD)$ 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