奇奇的个人主页 - 老虎社区

奇奇

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2021-10-06

有国考支撑的教育股到底了吗

2021-10-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@交易汇_股指大赢家:思考美联储释放四大利空下，美股不跌反涨的理由为何

2021-10-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@爱上趋势股:一文看懂：全球新能源汽车之巅峰对决！

2021-10-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@Ivan_甘灿荣:一定要留意这一周：美股到了关键点位，推荐一个交易策略

2021-10-01

$绿叶制药(02186)$观察一下

2021-08-18

买买买，就当存股了

2021-08-16

会不会到1500

@程俊Dream:重磅分析，本周黄金和白银大跌的底部是多少？

2021-08-16

$华能国际电力股份(00902)$亏大了

2020-10-07

$Yalla Group(YALA)$解套了

2020-10-06

$Yalla Group(YALA)$分配晚了

2019-08-16

廉价硬件商

2019-05-03

$云集(YJ)$ 一股都不给了吗？

2019-01-19

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ ，$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 缺口回补后强势反弹，轻仓试多，下周择机止盈，隔了一个周末，当然也有可能是止损。大趋势看空不变，最好天然气4块左右做空建仓安全。

2019-01-17

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ .$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ .位置尴尬，多空不宜，空仓休息

2019-01-17

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 目前来看，偏多，看今晚了，持续强势就做多，仓位轻一点。当然，不做也行。

2019-01-17

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 做空15分钟低位止盈，现在位置尴尬，不适合持仓，观望休息

2019-01-16

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 15分钟已高位，做空的坐等1小时高位加仓

2019-01-16

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ $三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 做空跟上，还有肉

2019-01-15

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ $三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 天然气持续强势，继续看高一线，做多持仓，走早的莫追。大趋势依然空，做空建仓不着急，观察天然气上是否上4

2019-01-14

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 天然气反弹如期而至，力度较大，可以稍微看多一线，做多择机止盈。大方向依旧看空，逢高做空需要考虑到可能的几个反弹位置。

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因为无法找到因果关系，因此在后续的相关报导中，有看到略过说明的，却也有看到因为美股收涨，就用美联储政策「其实」没那么鹰派来解释。可再怎么看，收资金、早加息、降GDP、升通胀，从正常的逻辑来看都算股市的偏空因素，不能因为股市涨了，就把鹰派的利空说成不是利空。 漫长的操作岁月我学到了一件事，要能够在金融操作有大斩获，独立思考、不随波逐流是很重要的条件。逻辑永远比赚赔重要，因为拉长次数来看，决定赚赔的还是对的思维模式。能够判断别人的观点是否有逻辑上的瑕疵，就能够客观思考，不陷入固有框架而受限。 遇到美联储利空，股市却不跌反涨。我宁可用其它方式来解读，却也不愿意说成白马非马。几种可能性中，极少数的可能性是市场错误定价，会在之后的行情中调整回来，但在讯息传递深具效率性、参与者专业程度相对高的美股来说，机率是很低的。 利空不跌是行情重要解读之一 另一种可能性是，在美联储早已充分沟通下，本次相关的利空都已被市场预期。这种观点大部分成立，但","text":"2021年9月，一向引领全球央行的美联储终于跟上了欧央的脚步，于FOMC会议之后进一步明确了缩减购债。搭配还是坚持通胀是暂时性的观点，可以看出美联储的难处。把本次会后内容与上个月底的全球央行会议上鲍尔的谈话做个对比，原本预期年底Taper的时间点于此次进一步确认，可以发现政策转向明显更为鹰派。此外，点阵图暗示2022年提早加息的机率大增、下调今年GDP预期及提高通胀数据，四个面向，对股市都是利空。 美联储较六月调降今年GDP及调升通胀预期 可说也奇怪，利空环伺下，美股不跌反涨。在凌晨两点结果公布前美股早已大涨，这部份或可以归因于亚洲「雷曼再起」疑虑的消除，也可以是政府举债上限难题在众议院得到了初步的解决。但消息公布后美股持续强势，并未随著市场消化后而走低，收盘时道琼斯、Nasdaq及标普涨幅都在1%左右，让一堆专家摸不著头绪，鹰派的政策却迎来美股走扬？ 因为无法找到因果关系，因此在后续的相关报导中，有看到略过说明的，却也有看到因为美股收涨，就用美联储政策「其实」没那么鹰派来解释。可再怎么看，收资金、早加息、降GDP、升通胀，从正常的逻辑来看都算股市的偏空因素，不能因为股市涨了，就把鹰派的利空说成不是利空。 漫长的操作岁月我学到了一件事，要能够在金融操作有大斩获，独立思考、不随波逐流是很重要的条件。逻辑永远比赚赔重要，因为拉长次数来看，决定赚赔的还是对的思维模式。能够判断别人的观点是否有逻辑上的瑕疵，就能够客观思考，不陷入固有框架而受限。 遇到美联储利空，股市却不跌反涨。我宁可用其它方式来解读，却也不愿意说成白马非马。几种可能性中，极少数的可能性是市场错误定价，会在之后的行情中调整回来，但在讯息传递深具效率性、参与者专业程度相对高的美股来说，机率是很低的。 利空不跌是行情重要解读之一 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2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","listText":"01 2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","text":"01 2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2204e3d31e731d268e8a063b6df755","width":"673","height":"384"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84df94dc9c09cdd4991da5ce5c9f55b","width":"990","height":"515"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8825c2550333809d35d9725fa872ebb","width":"663","height":"361"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869260010","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865721386,"gmtCreate":1633022798440,"gmtModify":1633022798440,"author":{"id":"53137553765248","authorId":"53137553765248","name":"奇奇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5ebb9b6c9c0fe4b0a76a04aa120e2dc0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865721386","repostId":"869611528","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":869611528,"gmtCreate":1632279145060,"gmtModify":1635324225271,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"一定要留意这一周：美股到了关键点位，推荐一个交易策略","htmlText":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 虽然美股指看空，作为对冲手段来","listText":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 虽然美股指看空，作为对冲手段来","text":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 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&nbsp; 从短期的绝对跌幅来说，是有一些超预期的。但从行情发展本身而言，此前提及过白银面临补跌的时间周期风险只是得到了必须的释放而已。黄金和白银依然有较大的机会在此完成下跌的最后一棒，随后进入属于自己的节奏中。&nbsp; 白银补跌 时间周期匹配&nbsp; 在7月19日的<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/173252261?invite=WEGPT&amp;lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">文章</a>中，曾经和大家预告了白银未来3-4周（当时算起）面临补跌的风险，价格可能会再度测试低位。事实的情况也是如此，本周时间周期刚好进入到第九次信号之中。价格和时间都满足了市场补跌行情的需求。 当然，从目前的短期趋势来说，假设和猜测白银已经触底是有一些左侧交易的意思。日线和更短一些的周期都还未给出明确的反转向上的信号。如果周线可以留下不错的下影线的话，后续低位盘旋的机会可以考虑构建投机性的多单。中长期的投资者，则不用太多考虑成本些许差异，无杠杆或者低杠杆的模式下，耐心就是赚钱的利器。&nbsp; 黄金行情有变数么？&nbsp; 黄金短暂跌破1700，又一次提供了短期的投机**易机会，跟跌白银的力度还是超出了预估范围。当前1750均价的长期投资头寸处于小幅浮亏状态之中，不过考虑到1750-1900+的过山车都已经坐过，应该也不会太担忧这种短期波动。&nbsp; 从价格来看，年内的黄金低位1680附近的支持情况还是较为关键的。我们正在观察未来1-2周及8月的收线情况。确认跌破的话将会明显影响到短期的多头信心，并且引发止损卖盘的出现。1700下方投机多单需要考虑将上述价格作为","listText":"周一早间黄金白银出现大跳水行情，黄金一度跌破1700整数关口，勉强守住年内低点后反弹修正。白银同样出现重挫，对去年9-11月的低点平台进行了测试。 &nbsp; 从短期的绝对跌幅来说，是有一些超预期的。但从行情发展本身而言，此前提及过白银面临补跌的时间周期风险只是得到了必须的释放而已。黄金和白银依然有较大的机会在此完成下跌的最后一棒，随后进入属于自己的节奏中。&nbsp; 白银补跌 时间周期匹配&nbsp; 在7月19日的<a 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当然，从目前的短期趋势来说，假设和猜测白银已经触底是有一些左侧交易的意思。日线和更短一些的周期都还未给出明确的反转向上的信号。如果周线可以留下不错的下影线的话，后续低位盘旋的机会可以考虑构建投机性的多单。中长期的投资者，则不用太多考虑成本些许差异，无杠杆或者低杠杆的模式下，耐心就是赚钱的利器。 黄金行情有变数么？ 黄金短暂跌破1700，又一次提供了短期的投机**易机会，跟跌白银的力度还是超出了预估范围。当前1750均价的长期投资头寸处于小幅浮亏状态之中，不过考虑到1750-1900+的过山车都已经坐过，应该也不会太担忧这种短期波动。 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href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/173252261?invite=WEGPT&amp;lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">文章</a>中，曾经和大家预告了白银未来3-4周（当时算起）面临补跌的风险，价格可能会再度测试低位。事实的情况也是如此，本周时间周期刚好进入到第九次信号之中。价格和时间都满足了市场补跌行情的需求。 当然，从目前的短期趋势来说，假设和猜测白银已经触底是有一些左侧交易的意思。日线和更短一些的周期都还未给出明确的反转向上的信号。如果周线可以留下不错的下影线的话，后续低位盘旋的机会可以考虑构建投机性的多单。中长期的投资者，则不用太多考虑成本些许差异，无杠杆或者低杠杆的模式下，耐心就是赚钱的利器。&nbsp; 黄金行情有变数么？&nbsp; 黄金短暂跌破1700，又一次提供了短期的投机**易机会，跟跌白银的力度还是超出了预估范围。当前1750均价的长期投资头寸处于小幅浮亏状态之中，不过考虑到1750-1900+的过山车都已经坐过，应该也不会太担忧这种短期波动。&nbsp; 从价格来看，年内的黄金低位1680附近的支持情况还是较为关键的。我们正在观察未来1-2周及8月的收线情况。确认跌破的话将会明显影响到短期的多头信心，并且引发止损卖盘的出现。1700下方投机多单需要考虑将上述价格作为","text":"周一早间黄金白银出现大跳水行情，黄金一度跌破1700整数关口，勉强守住年内低点后反弹修正。白银同样出现重挫，对去年9-11月的低点平台进行了测试。 从短期的绝对跌幅来说，是有一些超预期的。但从行情发展本身而言，此前提及过白银面临补跌的时间周期风险只是得到了必须的释放而已。黄金和白银依然有较大的机会在此完成下跌的最后一棒，随后进入属于自己的节奏中。 白银补跌 时间周期匹配 在7月19日的文章中，曾经和大家预告了白银未来3-4周（当时算起）面临补跌的风险，价格可能会再度测试低位。事实的情况也是如此，本周时间周期刚好进入到第九次信号之中。价格和时间都满足了市场补跌行情的需求。 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