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candywyt
00:18
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
[微笑]
早说过这破票不值这个价钱,还有人为了信仰在做韭菜,跌到100先,然后继续往30走。
candywyt
07-16 23:17
这算唱多了吗,带血的算筹码拿好了?
摩根士丹利警示"内存之墙":GPU决定AI跑多快,内存决定AI走多远
candywyt
07-08
终于来了一个正常点的,SemiAnalysis的鬼故事一个接着一个,其实就是收了“咨询费”帮忙砸盘的。发负面报告→股价跌→找企业卖咨询→收了钱之后报告语气就软了,现在和Tema ETF 达成了商业合作。所谓的专业订阅费用基本都是给他们塞牙缝的,真正赚钱的活估计就是小作文。
摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机
candywyt
06-25
要跌还得跌,根本不值这个价钱,吹牛让散户为马爸爸买单吗
异动解读|SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,多位投资者力挺太空AI前景叠加超跌反弹
candywyt
06-25
假消息,小作文吧
存储暴跌!韩媒:英伟达Rubin预期减产,SK海力士HBM4扩产放缓
candywyt
06-24
$拼多多(PDD)$
那么多现金在手里,为啥不投点自己,回购点股份不好吗,而且现在股价那么便宜。
candywyt
06-23
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
开始收割了,ESG都不过关,很多基金不可以买入的,后面还有原始股抛压,冲进去的散户韭菜这波估计两三年回不来了,高高的站在山岗上了
candywyt
06-12
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
好公司不代表好价钱,喜欢这个人是一回事,投资一家公司那就是投资人角度看问题,市销率都93倍多了,拿到的算力租赁合同五年期的也是随时可以解约的。天下没有给普通人随便暴富的机会,你以为是开了市第一个冲进去买入的,其实人家已经过了N手了,不要高位去站岗就不错了。
candywyt
06-06
这种报告就是和华尔街的机构串谋的。真的是一会儿一个香橼现在又来一个。不太平啊
“黑色星期五”的导火索?Semianalysis报告“重创”美光
candywyt
06-05
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$
candywyt
06-05
$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$
机构又要搞事情了,之前唱空闪迪,一会儿又要砸盘博通,实际上就是吓唬散户,把散户震下车,股价低了逢低买入。他们知道涨太快了后面没得玩了,先缓一下,搞点花样。目前AI叙事没变,投入每减少,跌都是假跌。只要看英伟达是不是继续在大量出货,有没有放缓。高端存储产能要扩产没那么简单,设厂买设备调试起码2-3年。跌了就是上车机会
candywyt
04-27
同样的味道,之前SNDK也给他出过一个报告,结果今天破1000了
[笑哭]
异动解读 | 香橼做空报告施压,应用光电盘前大跌5.01%
candywyt
03-26
等级不到不给裸卖的吧
candywyt
02-24
这个机构早点不出来做空,就等英伟达财报前来发文章,AI基础建设大趋势没根本变化,巨头投资都是事实,订单一个一个的下,闪存配合英伟达芯片是必须品,这个事实也没变化,为什么说不可持续,三星扩产能难道一夜之间就能扩出来?建厂,设备采购,调试产线,供应链配套,都是需要时间的,给他一说,闪存的寒冬立即就要到了一样。就是机构唱戏吓唬胆小的散户,让散户坐电梯交出筹码的勾当而已。
知名做空机构香橼称正在做空闪迪,指存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”
candywyt
01-28
$SanDisk Corp(SNDK)$
盘前顶上去,但又萎了
candywyt
01-16
$巴西石油公司(PBR)$
感觉爬不动,涨了两天爬不上去了😤
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a><a href=\"\">[微笑] </a>早说过这破票不值这个价钱,还有人为了信仰在做韭菜,跌到100先,然后继续往30走。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a><a href=\"\">[微笑] </a>早说过这破票不值这个价钱,还有人为了信仰在做韭菜,跌到100先,然后继续往30走。","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ [微笑] 早说过这破票不值这个价钱,还有人为了信仰在做韭菜,跌到100先,然后继续往30走。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586848581193760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586480026678024,"gmtCreate":1784215031990,"gmtModify":1784215334507,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这算唱多了吗,带血的算筹码拿好了?","listText":"这算唱多了吗,带血的算筹码拿好了?","text":"这算唱多了吗,带血的算筹码拿好了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586480026678024","repostId":"2651428177","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2651428177","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784213252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2651428177?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-16 22:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利警示\"内存之墙\":GPU决定AI跑多快,内存决定AI走多远","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651428177","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着大模型参数规模、推理Token和Agentic AI快速增长,存储系统正成为制约AI进一步扩张的核心限制因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利在最新发布的全球科技深度报告中提出,<strong>容量不足、带宽受限和成本高企共同构成"存储墙"(Memory Wall),未来AI基础设施的竞争,将越来越取决于谁能突破这一系统性瓶颈。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,到2030年,Agentic AI将贡献全球DRAM新增需求的26%至77%,云端存储支出将增至4180亿美元,2026年至2030年复合增速约8%。与此同时,存储在云厂商资本开支中的占比将由2023年的12%提升至2027年的40%,资本投入强度持续攀升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利认为,<strong>这意味着AI产业链的投资逻辑正从GPU等计算芯片,逐步向整个存储生态扩散。</strong>未来受益的不仅是传统存储厂商,还包括制程、封装、互连、材料、存算一体等多个细分方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,<strong>不含HBM的新型存储技术总市场规模(TAM)将从2025年的12亿美元扩大至2030年的230亿美元;若计入HBM,2030年整体市场规模有望达到2760亿美元。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3993437438\" style=\"text-align: left;\">从GPU到存储体系:AI基础设施的“重心迁移”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利指出,<strong>AI产业的核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:处理器性能持续攀升,但存储带宽与容量的提升严重滞后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示,DDR5单通道带宽预计仅从2024年的44.8GB/s增至2026年的51.2GB/s,两年增幅约14%;而同期全球AI推理Token生成量将从每月约10万亿个激增至3200万亿个,增长超320倍,两者差距急剧拉大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>存储成本亦成为AI部署的关键制约。</strong>当前CPU服务器中存储相关BOM成本占比高达73%,DRAM每GB价格更回升至近30年高位。摩根士丹利认为,这已不仅是供给不足,更折射出架构、接口、封装、计算模式与材料体系的系统性挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此,AI产业发展重心正发生迁移:过去市场围绕GPU展开竞争,未来决定系统扩展能力的将是整个存储体系。从先进制程、HBM、封装,到CXL、MRDIMM、存算一体及新材料,围绕“内存之墙”的技术创新将成为AI基础设施升级的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">简言之,G<strong>PU决定AI跑多快,内存系统决定AI走多远。 下一轮AI投资机会,也将从计算芯片延伸至整个存储产业链。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4060125191\" style=\"text-align: left;\">六大创新方向打开产业空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">围绕突破"存储墙",摩根士丹利将未来技术演进归纳为六大方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一是先进制程。</strong> DRAM已进入1γ(1c)节点时代,三星、SK海力士和美光均已启动量产或爬坡。不过,从1β到1γ的线宽缩小幅度已不足10%,二维DRAM正逐渐接近物理极限。NAND方面,行业已迈入200层至300层时代,美光量产276层产品、三星第九代V-NAND达到286层、SK海力士已实现321层量产,路线图则指向2030年前突破1000层。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二是存储架构创新。</strong> 包括PLC NAND、3D DRAM、ZAM以及zHBM等新架构正在推进。其中,3D DRAM希望通过垂直堆叠突破密度瓶颈,但具备完整电容结构的量产仍需较长时间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三是先进封装。</strong> HBM路线图正迈向HBM4和HBM4E,预计2027年16层HBM4E将实现量产,单栈带宽达到1.5TB/s至2TB/s以上。SanDisk推出的高带宽闪存(HBF)则通过TSV连接多个3D NAND阵列,可提供最高4TB显存容量,在带宽接近HBM的同时,容量达到其8至16倍,首批样品预计于2026年下半年交付。此外,晶圆级堆叠(WoW)市场预计将由2025年的1000万美元快速增长至2030年的98亿美元,年复合增速高达322%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第四是外围互连芯片。</strong> MRDIMM通过集成MRCD和MDB芯片,实现双通道并行访问,可将有效带宽提升至DDR5原生频率的两倍。CXL则借助PCIe实现内存扩展,突破传统DIMM容量限制。摩根士丹利将2030年CXL MXC芯片市场规模预测由9.9亿美元上调至21亿美元,CXL交换芯片市场规模则由6.64亿美元上调至19亿美元。进入DDR6时代,双路服务器RCD芯片用量预计将由24颗增至96颗。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第五是存算一体(PIM/CIM)。</strong> 三星HBM-PIM(Aquabolt-XL)和SK海力士GDDR6-AiM已进入商业化阶段。实验数据显示,PIM可将平均内存访问延迟降低逾50%,部分场景性能提升最高可达16倍,能效提升超过80%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第六是新材料。</strong> 包括Si/SiGe超晶格沟道、TiO₂基电容介质、HZO铁电材料以及钼金属化等新材料体系正加速导入,以降低功耗、提升存储密度并改善制造工艺,为下一代3D DRAM和3D NAND提供支撑。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利警示\"内存之墙\":GPU决定AI跑多快,内存决定AI走多远\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-16 22:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着大模型参数规模、推理Token和Agentic AI快速增长,存储系统正成为制约AI进一步扩张的核心限制因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利在最新发布的全球科技深度报告中提出,<strong>容量不足、带宽受限和成本高企共同构成"存储墙"(Memory Wall),未来AI基础设施的竞争,将越来越取决于谁能突破这一系统性瓶颈。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,到2030年,Agentic AI将贡献全球DRAM新增需求的26%至77%,云端存储支出将增至4180亿美元,2026年至2030年复合增速约8%。与此同时,存储在云厂商资本开支中的占比将由2023年的12%提升至2027年的40%,资本投入强度持续攀升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利认为,<strong>这意味着AI产业链的投资逻辑正从GPU等计算芯片,逐步向整个存储生态扩散。</strong>未来受益的不仅是传统存储厂商,还包括制程、封装、互连、材料、存算一体等多个细分方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,<strong>不含HBM的新型存储技术总市场规模(TAM)将从2025年的12亿美元扩大至2030年的230亿美元;若计入HBM,2030年整体市场规模有望达到2760亿美元。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3993437438\" style=\"text-align: left;\">从GPU到存储体系:AI基础设施的“重心迁移”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利指出,<strong>AI产业的核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:处理器性能持续攀升,但存储带宽与容量的提升严重滞后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示,DDR5单通道带宽预计仅从2024年的44.8GB/s增至2026年的51.2GB/s,两年增幅约14%;而同期全球AI推理Token生成量将从每月约10万亿个激增至3200万亿个,增长超320倍,两者差距急剧拉大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>存储成本亦成为AI部署的关键制约。</strong>当前CPU服务器中存储相关BOM成本占比高达73%,DRAM每GB价格更回升至近30年高位。摩根士丹利认为,这已不仅是供给不足,更折射出架构、接口、封装、计算模式与材料体系的系统性挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此,AI产业发展重心正发生迁移:过去市场围绕GPU展开竞争,未来决定系统扩展能力的将是整个存储体系。从先进制程、HBM、封装,到CXL、MRDIMM、存算一体及新材料,围绕“内存之墙”的技术创新将成为AI基础设施升级的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">简言之,G<strong>PU决定AI跑多快,内存系统决定AI走多远。 下一轮AI投资机会,也将从计算芯片延伸至整个存储产业链。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4060125191\" style=\"text-align: left;\">六大创新方向打开产业空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">围绕突破"存储墙",摩根士丹利将未来技术演进归纳为六大方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一是先进制程。</strong> DRAM已进入1γ(1c)节点时代,三星、SK海力士和美光均已启动量产或爬坡。不过,从1β到1γ的线宽缩小幅度已不足10%,二维DRAM正逐渐接近物理极限。NAND方面,行业已迈入200层至300层时代,美光量产276层产品、三星第九代V-NAND达到286层、SK海力士已实现321层量产,路线图则指向2030年前突破1000层。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二是存储架构创新。</strong> 包括PLC NAND、3D DRAM、ZAM以及zHBM等新架构正在推进。其中,3D DRAM希望通过垂直堆叠突破密度瓶颈,但具备完整电容结构的量产仍需较长时间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三是先进封装。</strong> HBM路线图正迈向HBM4和HBM4E,预计2027年16层HBM4E将实现量产,单栈带宽达到1.5TB/s至2TB/s以上。SanDisk推出的高带宽闪存(HBF)则通过TSV连接多个3D NAND阵列,可提供最高4TB显存容量,在带宽接近HBM的同时,容量达到其8至16倍,首批样品预计于2026年下半年交付。此外,晶圆级堆叠(WoW)市场预计将由2025年的1000万美元快速增长至2030年的98亿美元,年复合增速高达322%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第四是外围互连芯片。</strong> MRDIMM通过集成MRCD和MDB芯片,实现双通道并行访问,可将有效带宽提升至DDR5原生频率的两倍。CXL则借助PCIe实现内存扩展,突破传统DIMM容量限制。摩根士丹利将2030年CXL MXC芯片市场规模预测由9.9亿美元上调至21亿美元,CXL交换芯片市场规模则由6.64亿美元上调至19亿美元。进入DDR6时代,双路服务器RCD芯片用量预计将由24颗增至96颗。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第五是存算一体(PIM/CIM)。</strong> 三星HBM-PIM(Aquabolt-XL)和SK海力士GDDR6-AiM已进入商业化阶段。实验数据显示,PIM可将平均内存访问延迟降低逾50%,部分场景性能提升最高可达16倍,能效提升超过80%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第六是新材料。</strong> 包括Si/SiGe超晶格沟道、TiO₂基电容介质、HZO铁电材料以及钼金属化等新材料体系正加速导入,以降低功耗、提升存储密度并改善制造工艺,为下一代3D DRAM和3D NAND提供支撑。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","KBWB":"银行ETF-PowerShares","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","RAM":"2倍做多DRAM ETF-T-REX","IAI":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Broker De","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0210528500.USD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","DRAL":"2倍做多DRAM ETF-Defiance","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","DRAM":"Roundhill Memory ETF","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777129","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2651428177","content_text":"摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。随着大模型参数规模、推理Token和Agentic AI快速增长,存储系统正成为制约AI进一步扩张的核心限制因素。摩根士丹利在最新发布的全球科技深度报告中提出,容量不足、带宽受限和成本高企共同构成\"存储墙\"(Memory Wall),未来AI基础设施的竞争,将越来越取决于谁能突破这一系统性瓶颈。报告预计,到2030年,Agentic AI将贡献全球DRAM新增需求的26%至77%,云端存储支出将增至4180亿美元,2026年至2030年复合增速约8%。与此同时,存储在云厂商资本开支中的占比将由2023年的12%提升至2027年的40%,资本投入强度持续攀升。摩根士丹利认为,这意味着AI产业链的投资逻辑正从GPU等计算芯片,逐步向整个存储生态扩散。未来受益的不仅是传统存储厂商,还包括制程、封装、互连、材料、存算一体等多个细分方向。报告预计,不含HBM的新型存储技术总市场规模(TAM)将从2025年的12亿美元扩大至2030年的230亿美元;若计入HBM,2030年整体市场规模有望达到2760亿美元。从GPU到存储体系:AI基础设施的“重心迁移”摩根士丹利指出,AI产业的核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:处理器性能持续攀升,但存储带宽与容量的提升严重滞后。数据显示,DDR5单通道带宽预计仅从2024年的44.8GB/s增至2026年的51.2GB/s,两年增幅约14%;而同期全球AI推理Token生成量将从每月约10万亿个激增至3200万亿个,增长超320倍,两者差距急剧拉大。存储成本亦成为AI部署的关键制约。当前CPU服务器中存储相关BOM成本占比高达73%,DRAM每GB价格更回升至近30年高位。摩根士丹利认为,这已不仅是供给不足,更折射出架构、接口、封装、计算模式与材料体系的系统性挑战。由此,AI产业发展重心正发生迁移:过去市场围绕GPU展开竞争,未来决定系统扩展能力的将是整个存储体系。从先进制程、HBM、封装,到CXL、MRDIMM、存算一体及新材料,围绕“内存之墙”的技术创新将成为AI基础设施升级的主要驱动力。简言之,GPU决定AI跑多快,内存系统决定AI走多远。 下一轮AI投资机会,也将从计算芯片延伸至整个存储产业链。六大创新方向打开产业空间围绕突破\"存储墙\",摩根士丹利将未来技术演进归纳为六大方向。第一是先进制程。 DRAM已进入1γ(1c)节点时代,三星、SK海力士和美光均已启动量产或爬坡。不过,从1β到1γ的线宽缩小幅度已不足10%,二维DRAM正逐渐接近物理极限。NAND方面,行业已迈入200层至300层时代,美光量产276层产品、三星第九代V-NAND达到286层、SK海力士已实现321层量产,路线图则指向2030年前突破1000层。第二是存储架构创新。 包括PLC NAND、3D DRAM、ZAM以及zHBM等新架构正在推进。其中,3D DRAM希望通过垂直堆叠突破密度瓶颈,但具备完整电容结构的量产仍需较长时间。第三是先进封装。 HBM路线图正迈向HBM4和HBM4E,预计2027年16层HBM4E将实现量产,单栈带宽达到1.5TB/s至2TB/s以上。SanDisk推出的高带宽闪存(HBF)则通过TSV连接多个3D NAND阵列,可提供最高4TB显存容量,在带宽接近HBM的同时,容量达到其8至16倍,首批样品预计于2026年下半年交付。此外,晶圆级堆叠(WoW)市场预计将由2025年的1000万美元快速增长至2030年的98亿美元,年复合增速高达322%。第四是外围互连芯片。 MRDIMM通过集成MRCD和MDB芯片,实现双通道并行访问,可将有效带宽提升至DDR5原生频率的两倍。CXL则借助PCIe实现内存扩展,突破传统DIMM容量限制。摩根士丹利将2030年CXL MXC芯片市场规模预测由9.9亿美元上调至21亿美元,CXL交换芯片市场规模则由6.64亿美元上调至19亿美元。进入DDR6时代,双路服务器RCD芯片用量预计将由24颗增至96颗。第五是存算一体(PIM/CIM)。 三星HBM-PIM(Aquabolt-XL)和SK海力士GDDR6-AiM已进入商业化阶段。实验数据显示,PIM可将平均内存访问延迟降低逾50%,部分场景性能提升最高可达16倍,能效提升超过80%。第六是新材料。 包括Si/SiGe超晶格沟道、TiO₂基电容介质、HZO铁电材料以及钼金属化等新材料体系正加速导入,以降低功耗、提升存储密度并改善制造工艺,为下一代3D DRAM和3D NAND提供支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KBWB":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"IAI":0.6,"AGIX":1.5,"MS":1.5,"DRAL":0.6,"AIPO":1.5,"QTOC":1.5,"VTHR":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"RAM":0.6,"DRAM":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583626764881992,"gmtCreate":1783517101015,"gmtModify":1783517103604,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"终于来了一个正常点的,SemiAnalysis的鬼故事一个接着一个,其实就是收了“咨询费”帮忙砸盘的。发负面报告→股价跌→找企业卖咨询→收了钱之后报告语气就软了,现在和Tema ETF 达成了商业合作。所谓的专业订阅费用基本都是给他们塞牙缝的,真正赚钱的活估计就是小作文。","listText":"终于来了一个正常点的,SemiAnalysis的鬼故事一个接着一个,其实就是收了“咨询费”帮忙砸盘的。发负面报告→股价跌→找企业卖咨询→收了钱之后报告语气就软了,现在和Tema ETF 达成了商业合作。所谓的专业订阅费用基本都是给他们塞牙缝的,真正赚钱的活估计就是小作文。","text":"终于来了一个正常点的,SemiAnalysis的鬼故事一个接着一个,其实就是收了“咨询费”帮忙砸盘的。发负面报告→股价跌→找企业卖咨询→收了钱之后报告语气就软了,现在和Tema ETF 达成了商业合作。所谓的专业订阅费用基本都是给他们塞牙缝的,真正赚钱的活估计就是小作文。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583626764881992","repostId":"2649960560","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649960560","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1783507341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2649960560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-08 18:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649960560","media":"智通财经","summary":"【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<b>【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】</b>7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”评级,并将2026年12月的目标价调高至480,000韩元。摩根大通指出,尽管三星在今年上半年一次性计提了超过15万亿韩元的巨额劳务成本拨备,但在AI基础设施建设引发的存储芯片价格狂飙及韩元贬值的双重利好拉动下,其二季度实际盈利表现击败了此前已被市场调低的预期,展现出极具韧性的周期爆发力。报告强调,经历此前的股价回调后,目前三星电子股价对应的未来12个月滚动市盈率仅为5.2倍。小摩称,三星已成为全球范围内“定价最便宜的优质存储资产”,此前的市场悲观情绪反而为中长线投资者提供了极佳的逢低买入时机。 </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-08 18:42 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”评级,并将2026年12月的目标价调高至480,000韩元。摩根大通指出,尽管三星在今年上半年一次性计提了超过15万亿韩元的巨额劳务成本拨备,但在AI基础设施建设引发的存储芯片价格狂飙及韩元贬值的双重...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DRAM":"Roundhill Memory ETF","EEMO":"Invesco S&P Emerging Markets Momentum ETF","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","WTAI":"WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund","SSNLF":"三星电子","RAM":"2倍做多DRAM ETF-T-REX","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IEMG":"iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4543":"AI","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4582":"ESG ETF-MSCI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","07747":"南方两倍做多三星电子","DRAL":"2倍做多DRAM ETF-Defiance","EDZ":"新兴市场ETF-Direxion三倍做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PGF":"优先金融股指数ETF-PowerShares"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2649960560","content_text":"【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”评级,并将2026年12月的目标价调高至480,000韩元。摩根大通指出,尽管三星在今年上半年一次性计提了超过15万亿韩元的巨额劳务成本拨备,但在AI基础设施建设引发的存储芯片价格狂飙及韩元贬值的双重利好拉动下,其二季度实际盈利表现击败了此前已被市场调低的预期,展现出极具韧性的周期爆发力。报告强调,经历此前的股价回调后,目前三星电子股价对应的未来12个月滚动市盈率仅为5.2倍。小摩称,三星已成为全球范围内“定价最便宜的优质存储资产”,此前的市场悲观情绪反而为中长线投资者提供了极佳的逢低买入时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DRAL":0.6,"07747":0.6,"PGF":1.5,"EDZ":1.5,"SSNLF":1.5,"EEMO":1.5,"RAM":1.5,"DRAM":1.5,"IEMG":1.5,"WTAI":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579045349765640,"gmtCreate":1782398672369,"gmtModify":1782398972268,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"要跌还得跌,根本不值这个价钱,吹牛让散户为马爸爸买单吗","listText":"要跌还得跌,根本不值这个价钱,吹牛让散户为马爸爸买单吗","text":"要跌还得跌,根本不值这个价钱,吹牛让散户为马爸爸买单吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579045349765640","repostId":"1163051666","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163051666","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"行情直击","id":"1059448697","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a"},"pubTimestamp":1782395901,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163051666?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-25 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动解读|SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,多位投资者力挺太空AI前景叠加超跌反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163051666","media":"行情直击","summary":"6月25日,SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,报152.72美元/股,成交额21.65亿美元。消息面上,SpaceX投资者David George及Andreessen近日相继公开看好星舰发展,称太空AI算力布局不可避免;Triller Group宣布将SpaceX持仓作为战略财库资产纳入资产负债表;ARK Invest此前在股价下跌期间增持超3200万美元SpaceX股份,机构逢低买入信号提振市场情绪。此外,Wedbush最新研报指出SpaceX算力出租或预示新Colossus巨型数据中心建设计划,Reflection AI已签署月付1.5亿美元、合同总价值最高达63亿美元的算力合约,AI变现能力获市场认可。","content":"<p><p>6月25日,SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,报152.72美元/股,成交额21.65亿美元。该股此前自上市高点225.64美元累计回撤逾三成,本次反弹受多重利好提振。</p><p>消息面上,SpaceX投资者David George及Andreessen近日相继公开看好星舰发展,称太空AI算力布局不可避免;Triller Group宣布将SpaceX持仓作为战略财库资产纳入资产负债表;ARK Invest此前在股价下跌期间增持超3200万美元SpaceX股份,机构逢低买入信号提振市场情绪。此外,Wedbush最新研报指出SpaceX算力出租或预示新Colossus巨型数据中心建设计划,Reflection AI已签署月付1.5亿美元、合同总价值最高达63亿美元的算力合约,AI变现能力获市场认可。</p><p>(以上内容均基于市场公开消息,由程序或算法智能生成,仅作为股价异动提醒,不作为投资建议或交易依据。)</p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读|SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,多位投资者力挺太空AI前景叠加超跌反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读|SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,多位投资者力挺太空AI前景叠加超跌反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059448697\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-25 21:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p>6月25日,SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,报152.72美元/股,成交额21.65亿美元。该股此前自上市高点225.64美元累计回撤逾三成,本次反弹受多重利好提振。</p><p>消息面上,SpaceX投资者David George及Andreessen近日相继公开看好星舰发展,称太空AI算力布局不可避免;Triller Group宣布将SpaceX持仓作为战略财库资产纳入资产负债表;ARK Invest此前在股价下跌期间增持超3200万美元SpaceX股份,机构逢低买入信号提振市场情绪。此外,Wedbush最新研报指出SpaceX算力出租或预示新Colossus巨型数据中心建设计划,Reflection AI已签署月付1.5亿美元、合同总价值最高达63亿美元的算力合约,AI变现能力获市场认可。</p><p>(以上内容均基于市场公开消息,由程序或算法智能生成,仅作为股价异动提醒,不作为投资建议或交易依据。)</p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163051666","content_text":"6月25日,SpaceX盘中上涨3.43%,报152.72美元/股,成交额21.65亿美元。该股此前自上市高点225.64美元累计回撤逾三成,本次反弹受多重利好提振。消息面上,SpaceX投资者David George及Andreessen近日相继公开看好星舰发展,称太空AI算力布局不可避免;Triller Group宣布将SpaceX持仓作为战略财库资产纳入资产负债表;ARK Invest此前在股价下跌期间增持超3200万美元SpaceX股份,机构逢低买入信号提振市场情绪。此外,Wedbush最新研报指出SpaceX算力出租或预示新Colossus巨型数据中心建设计划,Reflection AI已签署月付1.5亿美元、合同总价值最高达63亿美元的算力合约,AI变现能力获市场认可。(以上内容均基于市场公开消息,由程序或算法智能生成,仅作为股价异动提醒,不作为投资建议或交易依据。)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":578831565648592,"gmtCreate":1782325514539,"gmtModify":1782331672216,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"假消息,小作文吧","listText":"假消息,小作文吧","text":"假消息,小作文吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/578831565648592","repostId":"2645569548","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2645569548","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782257901,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2645569548?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-24 07:38","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"存储暴跌!韩媒:英伟达Rubin预期减产,SK海力士HBM4扩产放缓","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2645569548","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一篇韩国媒体报道,引发全球存储股连锁暴跌,美股盘中美光大跌13%。据报道,英伟达Rubin芯片生产预测下调,SK海力士放缓HBM4扩产、转向利润率反超HBM逾15个百分点的通用DRAM市场,令AI基础设施需求前景骤生疑云。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国一篇行业报道在全球市场引发连锁反应,将高带宽存储芯片供应前景的隐忧推至台前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据韩国媒体23日报道,<strong>SK海力士正在放缓第六代高带宽存储芯片(HBM4)的量产扩张节奏,并将资源重新倾斜至通用型DRAM市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一消息成为触发存储股大幅回调的导火索。彭博社与CNBC均援引消息称,"交易员将矛头指向一篇韩国媒体报道——SK海力士正在放缓AI存储芯片扩产,并将重心转回通用型DRAM"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于存储股约占韩国综合指数(KOSPI)权重的60%,韩国股市随即暴跌逾10%,并触发熔断机制,恐慌情绪随后向全球市场蔓延。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道援引一名熟悉SK海力士内部情况的人士表示,鉴于<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>下一代芯片"Rubin"的生产预测持续下调</strong>,该公司管理层已无必要加速推进向HBM4的产线转换。此番表态令市场对高端AI基础设施的需求前景产生质疑,并对英伟达等相关产业链构成压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>周二美光收跌13%,西部数据收跌8.5%。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/689cffb398525f14233f6be8df3d0d70\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>通用DRAM利润率反超HBM,促使SK海力士重新配置资源</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国媒体报道的核心逻辑在于存储市场内部的盈利结构变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至今年一季度,通用型DRAM与HBM之间的营业利润率差距已扩大至逾15个百分点,通用DRAM反而占据优势。大信证券预计,通用DRAM的营业利润率在年内理论峰值可达90%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在此背景下,SK海力士据报正延迟将部分第五代HBM(HBM3E)产线转换为HBM4的计划,转而加大对通用DRAM市场的供应响应能力。SK海力士管理层不得不正视竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>已通过通用DRAM获取丰厚利润这一现实。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK海力士在一季度财报中亦披露,DRAM平均售价已升至60%中段水平,并与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>签署了一份为期三年的DDR5供应合同,外界普遍将此解读为公司在通用DRAM领域锁定长期收益能见度的举措。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>华尔街看多DRAM周期,HBM市场份额存分歧</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多家海外投行的研判与上述战略取向相互印证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为,SK海力士至少在2026年前维持HBM3及HBM3E合计逾50%的市场主导地位即已足够;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>则将整体存储价格周期而非HBM份额保卫战视为SK海力士估值的核心驱动因素,并基于DRAM均价至2026年将上涨62%的预测,将盈利预测上调56%至63%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,HBM4扩产放缓也为竞争对手打开了窗口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Counterpoint Research数据,SK海力士去年四季度HBM市场份额为57%,但若<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>在今年下半年成功实现HBM4量产,SK海力士的份额或逐步收窄至50%至60%区间。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高端AI供应链压力浮现,英伟达Rubin系统备受关注</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次报道引发市场波动,折射出投资者对高端AI基础设施建设节奏的深层担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK海力士知情人士在报道中明确提及,英伟达下一代"Rubin"芯片的生产预测正在下调,这一表述直接冲击了市场对HBM4需求强劲的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从更宏观视角来看,这一动向也与高端英伟达系统的推进困境相呼应。搭载HBM4的Vera Rubin机架因存储价格大幅攀升推高整体成本,令超大规模数据中心运营商的利润空间承压。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bdda390a5edae7a8d4ae122aef51241d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"610\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0495120ef2ea93732c79782a9e8294e4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"764\" tg-height=\"429\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK海力士此次放缓HBM4扩张,究竟是主动管理定价节奏的战略选择,还是终端需求走软的信号,目前市场尚存分歧,但其触发的全球风险规避情绪已然真实落地。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>存储暴跌!韩媒:英伟达Rubin预期减产,SK海力士HBM4扩产放缓</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储暴跌!韩媒:英伟达Rubin预期减产,SK海力士HBM4扩产放缓\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-24 07:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国一篇行业报道在全球市场引发连锁反应,将高带宽存储芯片供应前景的隐忧推至台前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据韩国媒体23日报道,<strong>SK海力士正在放缓第六代高带宽存储芯片(HBM4)的量产扩张节奏,并将资源重新倾斜至通用型DRAM市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一消息成为触发存储股大幅回调的导火索。彭博社与CNBC均援引消息称,"交易员将矛头指向一篇韩国媒体报道——SK海力士正在放缓AI存储芯片扩产,并将重心转回通用型DRAM"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">由于存储股约占韩国综合指数(KOSPI)权重的60%,韩国股市随即暴跌逾10%,并触发熔断机制,恐慌情绪随后向全球市场蔓延。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道援引一名熟悉SK海力士内部情况的人士表示,鉴于<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>下一代芯片"Rubin"的生产预测持续下调</strong>,该公司管理层已无必要加速推进向HBM4的产线转换。此番表态令市场对高端AI基础设施的需求前景产生质疑,并对英伟达等相关产业链构成压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span>周二美光收跌13%,西部数据收跌8.5%。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/689cffb398525f14233f6be8df3d0d70\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>通用DRAM利润率反超HBM,促使SK海力士重新配置资源</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国媒体报道的核心逻辑在于存储市场内部的盈利结构变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至今年一季度,通用型DRAM与HBM之间的营业利润率差距已扩大至逾15个百分点,通用DRAM反而占据优势。大信证券预计,通用DRAM的营业利润率在年内理论峰值可达90%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在此背景下,SK海力士据报正延迟将部分第五代HBM(HBM3E)产线转换为HBM4的计划,转而加大对通用DRAM市场的供应响应能力。SK海力士管理层不得不正视竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>已通过通用DRAM获取丰厚利润这一现实。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK海力士在一季度财报中亦披露,DRAM平均售价已升至60%中段水平,并与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>签署了一份为期三年的DDR5供应合同,外界普遍将此解读为公司在通用DRAM领域锁定长期收益能见度的举措。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>华尔街看多DRAM周期,HBM市场份额存分歧</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多家海外投行的研判与上述战略取向相互印证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为,SK海力士至少在2026年前维持HBM3及HBM3E合计逾50%的市场主导地位即已足够;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>则将整体存储价格周期而非HBM份额保卫战视为SK海力士估值的核心驱动因素,并基于DRAM均价至2026年将上涨62%的预测,将盈利预测上调56%至63%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,HBM4扩产放缓也为竞争对手打开了窗口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据Counterpoint Research数据,SK海力士去年四季度HBM市场份额为57%,但若<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>在今年下半年成功实现HBM4量产,SK海力士的份额或逐步收窄至50%至60%区间。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高端AI供应链压力浮现,英伟达Rubin系统备受关注</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次报道引发市场波动,折射出投资者对高端AI基础设施建设节奏的深层担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK海力士知情人士在报道中明确提及,英伟达下一代"Rubin"芯片的生产预测正在下调,这一表述直接冲击了市场对HBM4需求强劲的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从更宏观视角来看,这一动向也与高端英伟达系统的推进困境相呼应。搭载HBM4的Vera Rubin机架因存储价格大幅攀升推高整体成本,令超大规模数据中心运营商的利润空间承压。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bdda390a5edae7a8d4ae122aef51241d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"610\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0495120ef2ea93732c79782a9e8294e4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"764\" tg-height=\"429\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SK海力士此次放缓HBM4扩张,究竟是主动管理定价节奏的战略选择,还是终端需求走软的信号,目前市场尚存分歧,但其触发的全球风险规避情绪已然真实落地。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU2125909759.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety H-R/A SGD","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","SNDK":"闪迪","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0133085943.USD":"T 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775325","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645569548","content_text":"韩国一篇行业报道在全球市场引发连锁反应,将高带宽存储芯片供应前景的隐忧推至台前。据韩国媒体23日报道,SK海力士正在放缓第六代高带宽存储芯片(HBM4)的量产扩张节奏,并将资源重新倾斜至通用型DRAM市场。这一消息成为触发存储股大幅回调的导火索。彭博社与CNBC均援引消息称,\"交易员将矛头指向一篇韩国媒体报道——SK海力士正在放缓AI存储芯片扩产,并将重心转回通用型DRAM\"。由于存储股约占韩国综合指数(KOSPI)权重的60%,韩国股市随即暴跌逾10%,并触发熔断机制,恐慌情绪随后向全球市场蔓延。报道援引一名熟悉SK海力士内部情况的人士表示,鉴于英伟达下一代芯片\"Rubin\"的生产预测持续下调,该公司管理层已无必要加速推进向HBM4的产线转换。此番表态令市场对高端AI基础设施的需求前景产生质疑,并对英伟达等相关产业链构成压力。周二美光收跌13%,西部数据收跌8.5%。通用DRAM利润率反超HBM,促使SK海力士重新配置资源韩国媒体报道的核心逻辑在于存储市场内部的盈利结构变化。截至今年一季度,通用型DRAM与HBM之间的营业利润率差距已扩大至逾15个百分点,通用DRAM反而占据优势。大信证券预计,通用DRAM的营业利润率在年内理论峰值可达90%。在此背景下,SK海力士据报正延迟将部分第五代HBM(HBM3E)产线转换为HBM4的计划,转而加大对通用DRAM市场的供应响应能力。SK海力士管理层不得不正视竞争对手三星电子已通过通用DRAM获取丰厚利润这一现实。SK海力士在一季度财报中亦披露,DRAM平均售价已升至60%中段水平,并与微软签署了一份为期三年的DDR5供应合同,外界普遍将此解读为公司在通用DRAM领域锁定长期收益能见度的举措。华尔街看多DRAM周期,HBM市场份额存分歧多家海外投行的研判与上述战略取向相互印证。高盛认为,SK海力士至少在2026年前维持HBM3及HBM3E合计逾50%的市场主导地位即已足够;摩根士丹利则将整体存储价格周期而非HBM份额保卫战视为SK海力士估值的核心驱动因素,并基于DRAM均价至2026年将上涨62%的预测,将盈利预测上调56%至63%。然而,HBM4扩产放缓也为竞争对手打开了窗口。据Counterpoint 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Rubin机架因存储价格大幅攀升推高整体成本,令超大规模数据中心运营商的利润空间承压。SK海力士此次放缓HBM4扩张,究竟是主动管理定价节奏的战略选择,还是终端需求走软的信号,目前市场尚存分歧,但其触发的全球风险规避情绪已然真实落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUU":0.6,"SKHY":1,"SNDK":2,"MUD":0.6,"WDCX":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"WDC":2,"SNDU":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"MU":2,"07709":1.87,"STX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":578733649760856,"gmtCreate":1782301530766,"gmtModify":1782301818619,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ </a> 那么多现金在手里,为啥不投点自己,回购点股份不好吗,而且现在股价那么便宜。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ </a> 那么多现金在手里,为啥不投点自己,回购点股份不好吗,而且现在股价那么便宜。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 那么多现金在手里,为啥不投点自己,回购点股份不好吗,而且现在股价那么便宜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/578733649760856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117954127910450","authorId":"4117954127910450","name":"凉风羽羽毛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4117954127910450","authorIdStr":"4117954127910450"},"content":"股价低不低的他们不在乎,千亿供应链,你想想多少油水","text":"股价低不低的他们不在乎,千亿供应链,你想想多少油水","html":"股价低不低的他们不在乎,千亿供应链,你想想多少油水"},{"author":{"id":"168783092076414","authorId":"168783092076414","name":"土司","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198afb48b98a5d0c0a8fd93bc993100c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"168783092076414","authorIdStr":"168783092076414"},"content":"可能是想等到20多元的时候再回购吧。","text":"可能是想等到20多元的时候再回购吧。","html":"可能是想等到20多元的时候再回购吧。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":578268565177200,"gmtCreate":1782187985132,"gmtModify":1782189120390,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 开始收割了,ESG都不过关,很多基金不可以买入的,后面还有原始股抛压,冲进去的散户韭菜这波估计两三年回不来了,高高的站在山岗上了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 开始收割了,ESG都不过关,很多基金不可以买入的,后面还有原始股抛压,冲进去的散户韭菜这波估计两三年回不来了,高高的站在山岗上了","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 开始收割了,ESG都不过关,很多基金不可以买入的,后面还有原始股抛压,冲进去的散户韭菜这波估计两三年回不来了,高高的站在山岗上了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/578268565177200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171852166939492","authorId":"4171852166939492","name":"飞翔正版","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171852166939492","authorIdStr":"4171852166939492"},"content":"没事,反正是模拟盘 [龇牙]","text":"没事,反正是模拟盘 [龇牙]","html":"没事,反正是模拟盘 [龇牙]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":574516886550232,"gmtCreate":1781276796977,"gmtModify":1781277174142,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 好公司不代表好价钱,喜欢这个人是一回事,投资一家公司那就是投资人角度看问题,市销率都93倍多了,拿到的算力租赁合同五年期的也是随时可以解约的。天下没有给普通人随便暴富的机会,你以为是开了市第一个冲进去买入的,其实人家已经过了N手了,不要高位去站岗就不错了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 好公司不代表好价钱,喜欢这个人是一回事,投资一家公司那就是投资人角度看问题,市销率都93倍多了,拿到的算力租赁合同五年期的也是随时可以解约的。天下没有给普通人随便暴富的机会,你以为是开了市第一个冲进去买入的,其实人家已经过了N手了,不要高位去站岗就不错了。","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 好公司不代表好价钱,喜欢这个人是一回事,投资一家公司那就是投资人角度看问题,市销率都93倍多了,拿到的算力租赁合同五年期的也是随时可以解约的。天下没有给普通人随便暴富的机会,你以为是开了市第一个冲进去买入的,其实人家已经过了N手了,不要高位去站岗就不错了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574516886550232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572198526386376,"gmtCreate":1780721539364,"gmtModify":1780723396972,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这种报告就是和华尔街的机构串谋的。真的是一会儿一个香橼现在又来一个。不太平啊","listText":"这种报告就是和华尔街的机构串谋的。真的是一会儿一个香橼现在又来一个。不太平啊","text":"这种报告就是和华尔街的机构串谋的。真的是一会儿一个香橼现在又来一个。不太平啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572198526386376","repostId":"2641126679","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2641126679","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1780718953,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2641126679?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-06 12:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“黑色星期五”的导火索?Semianalysis报告“重创”美光","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641126679","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SemiAnalysis发布关于英伟达削减内存容量的报告,被市场解读为AI需求降温,导致美光在获英伟达HBM4认证的同日股价重挫13%,创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。该机构虽否认看空,但因其屡次发布看空美光的误导性叙事且频遭基本面“打脸”,正引发市场对其研究质量的强烈质疑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一份来自半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis的报告,再度成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价单日重挫的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五,美光股价收跌13%,创下2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅,而这已是SemiAnalysis多次发布看空美光相关报告后引发市场恐慌的最新一例。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cfd865fd1d9918ae29bf5d09c0818b01\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2302\" tg-height=\"1466\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次下跌的直接触发点,是SemiAnalysis发布报告称,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>已将其下一代Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存容量从55TB大幅削减至28TB,市场将此解读为AI内存需求降温的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息一出,美光股价当日重挫,半导体板块全线承压,三大股指悉数收跌。值得注意的是,就在同一天,英伟达CEO黄仁勋公开宣布,美光已与SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>一同通过英伟达HBM4认证,成为最新一代高带宽内存的合格供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>然而,利好消息未能抵挡报告引发的抛售浪潮。</strong>SemiAnalysis随后在社交平台X上发文回应,称其分析"并无任何看空之处",但这一辩解在市场上几乎未能引发任何反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,多位市场人士和网友对SemiAnalysis的研究质量及信息传播方式提出强烈质疑,认为<strong>该机构已多次以"深度研究"之名制造看空美光的叙事,却屡屡被股价走势和公司基本面所打脸。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">利好与利空同日上演,美光单日重挫13%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五对美光而言是矛盾的一天。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄仁勋在公开场合确认,<strong>美光已与SK海力士和三星并列,成为英伟达HBM4认证供应商。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街分析师此前普遍预期英伟达将采用三家供应商,但KeyBanc分析师John Vinh曾指出SK海力士和美光在满足英伟达标准方面存在一定问题。因此,此次官方认证对美光而言本应是重大利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,美光股价当日仍收跌13%,报864.01美元,为2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。叠加周四7.7%的跌幅,美光两日累计跌幅已超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据道琼斯市场数据,此前美光股价在过去12个月内累计涨幅超过735%,高估值令其对任何获利回吐行为都极为敏感。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis报告的核心争议:模块化内存还是HBM?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次引发市场波动的SemiAnalysis报告,核心内容是<strong>英伟达削减了Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存(SOCAMM DRAM)容量。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">需要指出的是,模块化内存与驱动AI服务器内存芯片需求的高带宽内存(HBM)是两个不同的产品类别。SemiAnalysis创始人Dylan Patel随后发文澄清,称该机构的分析"并无任何看空之处"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据巴伦周刊报道,英伟达削减模块化内存容量,实际上可能反映的是HBM挤出效应正在发生——由于HBM生产极为耗费晶圆产能(每单位HBM所需晶圆产能约为标准内存的三倍),HBM供应扩张必然压缩其他内存类型的产能,并推高整个内存行业的价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构Trendforce的分析师写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"随着HBM技术代际在2027年持续演进,芯片尺寸扩大与需求同步上升,对传统DRAM产能的挤出效应预计将进一步加剧。这将为供应商提供充分理由上调HBM价格,并强化其在明年HBM谈判中的定价权。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">屡次"看空"屡次被打脸,SemiAnalysis成争议焦点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次事件并非SemiAnalysis第一次因涉及美光的报告引发市场波动,也并非第一次事后被证明方向有误。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交平台X用户@Klaytonlolus整理了SemiAnalysis过去数月内多次发布看空美光相关报告的时间线:</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月初</strong>,SemiAnalysis称美光HBM4样品引脚速度偏弱,落后于SK海力士和三星。彼时美光股价约430美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾114%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月28日</strong>,SemiAnalysis称英伟达Rubin首年HBM4订单"看不到美光的身影"。彼时美光股价435.28美元,此后同样涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾111%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2月6日</strong>,SemiAnalysis发布最具影响力的一篇报告,称美光在Rubin首个12个月内的HBM4份额"基本归零"。彼时美光股价394.69美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾133%;若从3月低点321美元算起,涨幅更超186%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>6月4日至5日</strong>,SemiAnalysis再度发布报告,称英伟达削减Vera Rubin CPU侧SOCAMM DRAM容量,暗示内存需求降温。美光6月4日收于996美元,次日跌至920美元附近,单日跌幅约7.5%。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b9dcfa6eac78d1d611137d196d7b67\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"767\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd80a19931ad976fbaedff42ec5c6b4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus在帖子中写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"这已经不只是'一次判断失误'的问题。这是反复以极度自信的语气,将供应链故事包装成深度行业研究,然后被股价、基本面和AI内存超级周期狠狠打脸。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis回应:信息不对称之争</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对外界批评,SemiAnalysis回应称,其报告的真实结论是"美光HBM延迟对美光而言是利好,因为普通DDR的利润率高于HBM",并表示批评者根本没有读过完整报告,"那些这么说的人甚至没有订阅权限"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ceddc1710699824418c779e6510fcd\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"138\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,这一回应本身也引发了新的争议。用户Vinit Baliyan质问道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"为什么你们不能向更广泛的订阅用户分享这类信息?你们是否在向机构客户提供准确信息,同时让普通订阅者和散户陷入困惑?这实际上是在给你们的富有客户提供不对称优势,代价是散户投资者的利益。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ee670b5f94ea818e75b3eede14033f3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"307\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一位用户Klaytonlolus则指出,SemiAnalysis的报告被多家媒体广泛引用,核心信息被解读为"英伟达未向美光下达HBM4订单",这是明确的看空框架。美光CFO随后公开反驳"不准确的报道",称HBM4已进入大规模量产阶段,客户出货已经开始,且量产节奏比此前预期提前了一个季度。美光随后正式宣布HBM4 36GB 12H进入大规模量产,专为英伟达Vera Rubin设计,带宽超过2.8 TB/s,能效提升逾20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus写道,"问题不在于读者是否读了完整报告,问题在于你们的标题、摘要和框架制造了明确的看空美光叙事,而这一叙事后来被美光管理层和官方产品公告所推翻。这不是'深度研究',这是不负责任的框架,加上事后的危机公关。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94e709dfd649e05e675b89fbc44082ee\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管批评声浪不小,SemiAnalysis在业内仍有一定支持者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">付费订阅用户"Macho Man Randy Newman"表示,</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis的深度报告帮助他在内存股已大幅上涨后仍坚定持仓,目前其美光持仓已实现22倍回报。他认为,SemiAnalysis提供的是详细的事实性报道,但其编辑性结论则需要读者自行判断。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b900c6ff2a4481dcea88962e9f6a01f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"157\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用户Dave则持中立立场:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"无论这些博客和Substack写得多么详尽,它们终究只是它们本身。做好自己的研究,如果你有信念,就必须过滤掉噪音。我个人认为SemiAnalysis提供的信号多于噪音,但没有人是没有偏见的。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9d56241a1a2580004cf43076e1c9a19\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"160\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也有用户将矛头指向更深层的市场结构问题。用户IVCrushLeague评论道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"如果一位分析师对SK海力士或三星的判断出错到这种程度,他们早就要躲起来了。这也是为什么这类恐慌性信息主要针对美光。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58845bdfa0f3e44592d42945386024aa\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"137\"/><span></span></p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“黑色星期五”的导火索?Semianalysis报告“重创”美光\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-06 12:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一份来自半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis的报告,再度成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价单日重挫的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五,美光股价收跌13%,创下2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅,而这已是SemiAnalysis多次发布看空美光相关报告后引发市场恐慌的最新一例。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cfd865fd1d9918ae29bf5d09c0818b01\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2302\" tg-height=\"1466\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次下跌的直接触发点,是SemiAnalysis发布报告称,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>已将其下一代Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存容量从55TB大幅削减至28TB,市场将此解读为AI内存需求降温的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息一出,美光股价当日重挫,半导体板块全线承压,三大股指悉数收跌。值得注意的是,就在同一天,英伟达CEO黄仁勋公开宣布,美光已与SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>一同通过英伟达HBM4认证,成为最新一代高带宽内存的合格供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>然而,利好消息未能抵挡报告引发的抛售浪潮。</strong>SemiAnalysis随后在社交平台X上发文回应,称其分析"并无任何看空之处",但这一辩解在市场上几乎未能引发任何反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,多位市场人士和网友对SemiAnalysis的研究质量及信息传播方式提出强烈质疑,认为<strong>该机构已多次以"深度研究"之名制造看空美光的叙事,却屡屡被股价走势和公司基本面所打脸。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">利好与利空同日上演,美光单日重挫13%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五对美光而言是矛盾的一天。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄仁勋在公开场合确认,<strong>美光已与SK海力士和三星并列,成为英伟达HBM4认证供应商。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街分析师此前普遍预期英伟达将采用三家供应商,但KeyBanc分析师John Vinh曾指出SK海力士和美光在满足英伟达标准方面存在一定问题。因此,此次官方认证对美光而言本应是重大利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,美光股价当日仍收跌13%,报864.01美元,为2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。叠加周四7.7%的跌幅,美光两日累计跌幅已超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据道琼斯市场数据,此前美光股价在过去12个月内累计涨幅超过735%,高估值令其对任何获利回吐行为都极为敏感。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis报告的核心争议:模块化内存还是HBM?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次引发市场波动的SemiAnalysis报告,核心内容是<strong>英伟达削减了Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存(SOCAMM DRAM)容量。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">需要指出的是,模块化内存与驱动AI服务器内存芯片需求的高带宽内存(HBM)是两个不同的产品类别。SemiAnalysis创始人Dylan Patel随后发文澄清,称该机构的分析"并无任何看空之处"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据巴伦周刊报道,英伟达削减模块化内存容量,实际上可能反映的是HBM挤出效应正在发生——由于HBM生产极为耗费晶圆产能(每单位HBM所需晶圆产能约为标准内存的三倍),HBM供应扩张必然压缩其他内存类型的产能,并推高整个内存行业的价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构Trendforce的分析师写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"随着HBM技术代际在2027年持续演进,芯片尺寸扩大与需求同步上升,对传统DRAM产能的挤出效应预计将进一步加剧。这将为供应商提供充分理由上调HBM价格,并强化其在明年HBM谈判中的定价权。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">屡次"看空"屡次被打脸,SemiAnalysis成争议焦点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次事件并非SemiAnalysis第一次因涉及美光的报告引发市场波动,也并非第一次事后被证明方向有误。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交平台X用户@Klaytonlolus整理了SemiAnalysis过去数月内多次发布看空美光相关报告的时间线:</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月初</strong>,SemiAnalysis称美光HBM4样品引脚速度偏弱,落后于SK海力士和三星。彼时美光股价约430美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾114%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月28日</strong>,SemiAnalysis称英伟达Rubin首年HBM4订单"看不到美光的身影"。彼时美光股价435.28美元,此后同样涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾111%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2月6日</strong>,SemiAnalysis发布最具影响力的一篇报告,称美光在Rubin首个12个月内的HBM4份额"基本归零"。彼时美光股价394.69美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾133%;若从3月低点321美元算起,涨幅更超186%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>6月4日至5日</strong>,SemiAnalysis再度发布报告,称英伟达削减Vera Rubin CPU侧SOCAMM DRAM容量,暗示内存需求降温。美光6月4日收于996美元,次日跌至920美元附近,单日跌幅约7.5%。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b9dcfa6eac78d1d611137d196d7b67\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"767\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd80a19931ad976fbaedff42ec5c6b4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus在帖子中写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"这已经不只是'一次判断失误'的问题。这是反复以极度自信的语气,将供应链故事包装成深度行业研究,然后被股价、基本面和AI内存超级周期狠狠打脸。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis回应:信息不对称之争</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对外界批评,SemiAnalysis回应称,其报告的真实结论是"美光HBM延迟对美光而言是利好,因为普通DDR的利润率高于HBM",并表示批评者根本没有读过完整报告,"那些这么说的人甚至没有订阅权限"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ceddc1710699824418c779e6510fcd\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"138\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,这一回应本身也引发了新的争议。用户Vinit Baliyan质问道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"为什么你们不能向更广泛的订阅用户分享这类信息?你们是否在向机构客户提供准确信息,同时让普通订阅者和散户陷入困惑?这实际上是在给你们的富有客户提供不对称优势,代价是散户投资者的利益。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ee670b5f94ea818e75b3eede14033f3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"307\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一位用户Klaytonlolus则指出,SemiAnalysis的报告被多家媒体广泛引用,核心信息被解读为"英伟达未向美光下达HBM4订单",这是明确的看空框架。美光CFO随后公开反驳"不准确的报道",称HBM4已进入大规模量产阶段,客户出货已经开始,且量产节奏比此前预期提前了一个季度。美光随后正式宣布HBM4 36GB 12H进入大规模量产,专为英伟达Vera Rubin设计,带宽超过2.8 TB/s,能效提升逾20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus写道,"问题不在于读者是否读了完整报告,问题在于你们的标题、摘要和框架制造了明确的看空美光叙事,而这一叙事后来被美光管理层和官方产品公告所推翻。这不是'深度研究',这是不负责任的框架,加上事后的危机公关。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94e709dfd649e05e675b89fbc44082ee\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管批评声浪不小,SemiAnalysis在业内仍有一定支持者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">付费订阅用户"Macho Man Randy Newman"表示,</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis的深度报告帮助他在内存股已大幅上涨后仍坚定持仓,目前其美光持仓已实现22倍回报。他认为,SemiAnalysis提供的是详细的事实性报道,但其编辑性结论则需要读者自行判断。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b900c6ff2a4481dcea88962e9f6a01f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"157\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用户Dave则持中立立场:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"无论这些博客和Substack写得多么详尽,它们终究只是它们本身。做好自己的研究,如果你有信念,就必须过滤掉噪音。我个人认为SemiAnalysis提供的信号多于噪音,但没有人是没有偏见的。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9d56241a1a2580004cf43076e1c9a19\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"160\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也有用户将矛头指向更深层的市场结构问题。用户IVCrushLeague评论道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"如果一位分析师对SK海力士或三星的判断出错到这种程度,他们早就要躲起来了。这也是为什么这类恐慌性信息主要针对美光。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58845bdfa0f3e44592d42945386024aa\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"137\"/><span></span></p></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00dac9da971ee0e08b72a17d0d0b507","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4566":"资本集团","MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A 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VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774017","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641126679","content_text":"一份来自半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis的报告,再度成为美光科技股价单日重挫的导火索。周五,美光股价收跌13%,创下2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅,而这已是SemiAnalysis多次发布看空美光相关报告后引发市场恐慌的最新一例。本次下跌的直接触发点,是SemiAnalysis发布报告称,英伟达已将其下一代Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存容量从55TB大幅削减至28TB,市场将此解读为AI内存需求降温的信号。消息一出,美光股价当日重挫,半导体板块全线承压,三大股指悉数收跌。值得注意的是,就在同一天,英伟达CEO黄仁勋公开宣布,美光已与SK海力士、三星一同通过英伟达HBM4认证,成为最新一代高带宽内存的合格供应商。然而,利好消息未能抵挡报告引发的抛售浪潮。SemiAnalysis随后在社交平台X上发文回应,称其分析\"并无任何看空之处\",但这一辩解在市场上几乎未能引发任何反转。与此同时,多位市场人士和网友对SemiAnalysis的研究质量及信息传播方式提出强烈质疑,认为该机构已多次以\"深度研究\"之名制造看空美光的叙事,却屡屡被股价走势和公司基本面所打脸。利好与利空同日上演,美光单日重挫13%周五对美光而言是矛盾的一天。黄仁勋在公开场合确认,美光已与SK海力士和三星并列,成为英伟达HBM4认证供应商。华尔街分析师此前普遍预期英伟达将采用三家供应商,但KeyBanc分析师John Vinh曾指出SK海力士和美光在满足英伟达标准方面存在一定问题。因此,此次官方认证对美光而言本应是重大利好。然而,美光股价当日仍收跌13%,报864.01美元,为2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。叠加周四7.7%的跌幅,美光两日累计跌幅已超过20%。据道琼斯市场数据,此前美光股价在过去12个月内累计涨幅超过735%,高估值令其对任何获利回吐行为都极为敏感。SemiAnalysis报告的核心争议:模块化内存还是HBM?本次引发市场波动的SemiAnalysis报告,核心内容是英伟达削减了Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存(SOCAMM DRAM)容量。需要指出的是,模块化内存与驱动AI服务器内存芯片需求的高带宽内存(HBM)是两个不同的产品类别。SemiAnalysis创始人Dylan Patel随后发文澄清,称该机构的分析\"并无任何看空之处\"。据巴伦周刊报道,英伟达削减模块化内存容量,实际上可能反映的是HBM挤出效应正在发生——由于HBM生产极为耗费晶圆产能(每单位HBM所需晶圆产能约为标准内存的三倍),HBM供应扩张必然压缩其他内存类型的产能,并推高整个内存行业的价格。研究机构Trendforce的分析师写道:\"随着HBM技术代际在2027年持续演进,芯片尺寸扩大与需求同步上升,对传统DRAM产能的挤出效应预计将进一步加剧。这将为供应商提供充分理由上调HBM价格,并强化其在明年HBM谈判中的定价权。\"屡次\"看空\"屡次被打脸,SemiAnalysis成争议焦点此次事件并非SemiAnalysis第一次因涉及美光的报告引发市场波动,也并非第一次事后被证明方向有误。社交平台X用户@Klaytonlolus整理了SemiAnalysis过去数月内多次发布看空美光相关报告的时间线:1月初,SemiAnalysis称美光HBM4样品引脚速度偏弱,落后于SK海力士和三星。彼时美光股价约430美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾114%。1月28日,SemiAnalysis称英伟达Rubin首年HBM4订单\"看不到美光的身影\"。彼时美光股价435.28美元,此后同样涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾111%。2月6日,SemiAnalysis发布最具影响力的一篇报告,称美光在Rubin首个12个月内的HBM4份额\"基本归零\"。彼时美光股价394.69美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾133%;若从3月低点321美元算起,涨幅更超186%。6月4日至5日,SemiAnalysis再度发布报告,称英伟达削减Vera Rubin CPU侧SOCAMM DRAM容量,暗示内存需求降温。美光6月4日收于996美元,次日跌至920美元附近,单日跌幅约7.5%。Klaytonlolus在帖子中写道:\"这已经不只是'一次判断失误'的问题。这是反复以极度自信的语气,将供应链故事包装成深度行业研究,然后被股价、基本面和AI内存超级周期狠狠打脸。\"SemiAnalysis回应:信息不对称之争面对外界批评,SemiAnalysis回应称,其报告的真实结论是\"美光HBM延迟对美光而言是利好,因为普通DDR的利润率高于HBM\",并表示批评者根本没有读过完整报告,\"那些这么说的人甚至没有订阅权限\"。然而,这一回应本身也引发了新的争议。用户Vinit Baliyan质问道:\"为什么你们不能向更广泛的订阅用户分享这类信息?你们是否在向机构客户提供准确信息,同时让普通订阅者和散户陷入困惑?这实际上是在给你们的富有客户提供不对称优势,代价是散户投资者的利益。\"另一位用户Klaytonlolus则指出,SemiAnalysis的报告被多家媒体广泛引用,核心信息被解读为\"英伟达未向美光下达HBM4订单\",这是明确的看空框架。美光CFO随后公开反驳\"不准确的报道\",称HBM4已进入大规模量产阶段,客户出货已经开始,且量产节奏比此前预期提前了一个季度。美光随后正式宣布HBM4 36GB 12H进入大规模量产,专为英伟达Vera Rubin设计,带宽超过2.8 TB/s,能效提升逾20%。Klaytonlolus写道,\"问题不在于读者是否读了完整报告,问题在于你们的标题、摘要和框架制造了明确的看空美光叙事,而这一叙事后来被美光管理层和官方产品公告所推翻。这不是'深度研究',这是不负责任的框架,加上事后的危机公关。\"尽管批评声浪不小,SemiAnalysis在业内仍有一定支持者。付费订阅用户\"Macho Man Randy Newman\"表示,SemiAnalysis的深度报告帮助他在内存股已大幅上涨后仍坚定持仓,目前其美光持仓已实现22倍回报。他认为,SemiAnalysis提供的是详细的事实性报道,但其编辑性结论则需要读者自行判断。用户Dave则持中立立场:\"无论这些博客和Substack写得多么详尽,它们终究只是它们本身。做好自己的研究,如果你有信念,就必须过滤掉噪音。我个人认为SemiAnalysis提供的信号多于噪音,但没有人是没有偏见的。\"也有用户将矛头指向更深层的市场结构问题。用户IVCrushLeague评论道:\"如果一位分析师对SK海力士或三星的判断出错到这种程度,他们早就要躲起来了。这也是为什么这类恐慌性信息主要针对美光。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MULL":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"MU":2.1,"MUD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571946405016880,"gmtCreate":1780657681073,"gmtModify":1780658211619,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a> ","text":"$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571946405016880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":571946393735832,"gmtCreate":1780657674437,"gmtModify":1780658211639,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a> 机构又要搞事情了,之前唱空闪迪,一会儿又要砸盘博通,实际上就是吓唬散户,把散户震下车,股价低了逢低买入。他们知道涨太快了后面没得玩了,先缓一下,搞点花样。目前AI叙事没变,投入每减少,跌都是假跌。只要看英伟达是不是继续在大量出货,有没有放缓。高端存储产能要扩产没那么简单,设厂买设备调试起码2-3年。跌了就是上车机会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a> 机构又要搞事情了,之前唱空闪迪,一会儿又要砸盘博通,实际上就是吓唬散户,把散户震下车,股价低了逢低买入。他们知道涨太快了后面没得玩了,先缓一下,搞点花样。目前AI叙事没变,投入每减少,跌都是假跌。只要看英伟达是不是继续在大量出货,有没有放缓。高端存储产能要扩产没那么简单,设厂买设备调试起码2-3年。跌了就是上车机会","text":"$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ 机构又要搞事情了,之前唱空闪迪,一会儿又要砸盘博通,实际上就是吓唬散户,把散户震下车,股价低了逢低买入。他们知道涨太快了后面没得玩了,先缓一下,搞点花样。目前AI叙事没变,投入每减少,跌都是假跌。只要看英伟达是不是继续在大量出货,有没有放缓。高端存储产能要扩产没那么简单,设厂买设备调试起码2-3年。跌了就是上车机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571946393735832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558142850729248,"gmtCreate":1777297050909,"gmtModify":1777297053712,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"同样的味道,之前SNDK也给他出过一个报告,结果今天破1000了<a href=\"\">[笑哭] </a>","listText":"同样的味道,之前SNDK也给他出过一个报告,结果今天破1000了<a href=\"\">[笑哭] </a>","text":"同样的味道,之前SNDK也给他出过一个报告,结果今天破1000了[笑哭] ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558142850729248","repostId":"1116639706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116639706","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1777296444,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116639706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-27 21:27","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 香橼做空报告施压,应用光电盘前大跌5.01%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116639706","media":"异动解读","summary":"应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。","content":"<p>应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。</p><p>香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读 | 香橼做空报告施压,应用光电盘前大跌5.01%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读 | 香橼做空报告施压,应用光电盘前大跌5.01%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-27 21:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。</p><p>香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAOI":"Applied Optoelectronics Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116639706","content_text":"应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAOI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546822102984736,"gmtCreate":1774525048008,"gmtModify":1774529777408,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"等级不到不给裸卖的吧","listText":"等级不到不给裸卖的吧","text":"等级不到不给裸卖的吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546822102984736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":536423406006400,"gmtCreate":1771948148959,"gmtModify":1771949495332,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个机构早点不出来做空,就等英伟达财报前来发文章,AI基础建设大趋势没根本变化,巨头投资都是事实,订单一个一个的下,闪存配合英伟达芯片是必须品,这个事实也没变化,为什么说不可持续,三星扩产能难道一夜之间就能扩出来?建厂,设备采购,调试产线,供应链配套,都是需要时间的,给他一说,闪存的寒冬立即就要到了一样。就是机构唱戏吓唬胆小的散户,让散户坐电梯交出筹码的勾当而已。","listText":"这个机构早点不出来做空,就等英伟达财报前来发文章,AI基础建设大趋势没根本变化,巨头投资都是事实,订单一个一个的下,闪存配合英伟达芯片是必须品,这个事实也没变化,为什么说不可持续,三星扩产能难道一夜之间就能扩出来?建厂,设备采购,调试产线,供应链配套,都是需要时间的,给他一说,闪存的寒冬立即就要到了一样。就是机构唱戏吓唬胆小的散户,让散户坐电梯交出筹码的勾当而已。","text":"这个机构早点不出来做空,就等英伟达财报前来发文章,AI基础建设大趋势没根本变化,巨头投资都是事实,订单一个一个的下,闪存配合英伟达芯片是必须品,这个事实也没变化,为什么说不可持续,三星扩产能难道一夜之间就能扩出来?建厂,设备采购,调试产线,供应链配套,都是需要时间的,给他一说,闪存的寒冬立即就要到了一样。就是机构唱戏吓唬胆小的散户,让散户坐电梯交出筹码的勾当而已。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536423406006400","repostId":"1120902790","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120902790","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1771944490,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120902790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-24 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"知名做空机构香橼称正在做空闪迪,指存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120902790","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>知名做空机构香橼称正在做空 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a> ,指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。</strong></p><p>香橼续称,市场正按照英伟达的逻辑给闪迪定价,但这存在一个致命问题:英伟达拥有护城河,而闪迪销售的仅仅是大宗商品。存储芯片本质上是周期性行业,而周期终会见顶。</p><p>闪迪盘中震荡下挫,截至发稿跌幅超5%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a> 跌近3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a> 跌2%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a> 跌约1%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943ede7ba4aac71b369748ef6729a72f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1160973a09dc1249fa306fd91b9d84c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"860\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>知名做空机构香橼称正在做空闪迪,指存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-24 22:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>知名做空机构香橼称正在做空 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a> ,指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。</strong></p><p>香橼续称,市场正按照英伟达的逻辑给闪迪定价,但这存在一个致命问题:英伟达拥有护城河,而闪迪销售的仅仅是大宗商品。存储芯片本质上是周期性行业,而周期终会见顶。</p><p>闪迪盘中震荡下挫,截至发稿跌幅超5%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a> 跌近3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a> 跌2%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a> 跌约1%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943ede7ba4aac71b369748ef6729a72f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1160973a09dc1249fa306fd91b9d84c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"860\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42124aee3650a48de8abd3a477140231","relate_stocks":{"SNDK":"闪迪"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120902790","content_text":"知名做空机构香橼称正在做空 闪迪 ,指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。香橼续称,市场正按照英伟达的逻辑给闪迪定价,但这存在一个致命问题:英伟达拥有护城河,而闪迪销售的仅仅是大宗商品。存储芯片本质上是周期性行业,而周期终会见顶。闪迪盘中震荡下挫,截至发稿跌幅超5%。同时, 希捷科技 跌近3%, 西部数据 跌2%, 美光科技 跌约1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDK":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526897390740072,"gmtCreate":1769608531260,"gmtModify":1769608639442,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$SanDisk Corp(SNDK)$</a> 盘前顶上去,但又萎了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$SanDisk Corp(SNDK)$</a> 盘前顶上去,但又萎了","text":"$SanDisk Corp(SNDK)$ 盘前顶上去,但又萎了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526897390740072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":522080316552200,"gmtCreate":1768497053731,"gmtModify":1768513595213,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4214746600733160","authorIdStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$巴西石油公司(PBR)$ </a> 感觉爬不动,涨了两天爬不上去了😤","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$巴西石油公司(PBR)$ </a> 感觉爬不动,涨了两天爬不上去了😤","text":"$巴西石油公司(PBR)$ 感觉爬不动,涨了两天爬不上去了😤","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/522080316552200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":586848581193760,"gmtCreate":1784305092709,"gmtModify":1784305094918,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a><a href=\"\">[微笑] </a>早说过这破票不值这个价钱,还有人为了信仰在做韭菜,跌到100先,然后继续往30走。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$ </a><a href=\"\">[微笑] </a>早说过这破票不值这个价钱,还有人为了信仰在做韭菜,跌到100先,然后继续往30走。","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ [微笑] 早说过这破票不值这个价钱,还有人为了信仰在做韭菜,跌到100先,然后继续往30走。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586848581193760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586480026678024,"gmtCreate":1784215031990,"gmtModify":1784215334507,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这算唱多了吗,带血的算筹码拿好了?","listText":"这算唱多了吗,带血的算筹码拿好了?","text":"这算唱多了吗,带血的算筹码拿好了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586480026678024","repostId":"2651428177","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2651428177","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784213252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2651428177?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-16 22:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利警示\"内存之墙\":GPU决定AI跑多快,内存决定AI走多远","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651428177","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着大模型参数规模、推理Token和Agentic AI快速增长,存储系统正成为制约AI进一步扩张的核心限制因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利在最新发布的全球科技深度报告中提出,<strong>容量不足、带宽受限和成本高企共同构成"存储墙"(Memory Wall),未来AI基础设施的竞争,将越来越取决于谁能突破这一系统性瓶颈。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,到2030年,Agentic AI将贡献全球DRAM新增需求的26%至77%,云端存储支出将增至4180亿美元,2026年至2030年复合增速约8%。与此同时,存储在云厂商资本开支中的占比将由2023年的12%提升至2027年的40%,资本投入强度持续攀升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利认为,<strong>这意味着AI产业链的投资逻辑正从GPU等计算芯片,逐步向整个存储生态扩散。</strong>未来受益的不仅是传统存储厂商,还包括制程、封装、互连、材料、存算一体等多个细分方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,<strong>不含HBM的新型存储技术总市场规模(TAM)将从2025年的12亿美元扩大至2030年的230亿美元;若计入HBM,2030年整体市场规模有望达到2760亿美元。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3993437438\" style=\"text-align: left;\">从GPU到存储体系:AI基础设施的“重心迁移”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利指出,<strong>AI产业的核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:处理器性能持续攀升,但存储带宽与容量的提升严重滞后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示,DDR5单通道带宽预计仅从2024年的44.8GB/s增至2026年的51.2GB/s,两年增幅约14%;而同期全球AI推理Token生成量将从每月约10万亿个激增至3200万亿个,增长超320倍,两者差距急剧拉大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>存储成本亦成为AI部署的关键制约。</strong>当前CPU服务器中存储相关BOM成本占比高达73%,DRAM每GB价格更回升至近30年高位。摩根士丹利认为,这已不仅是供给不足,更折射出架构、接口、封装、计算模式与材料体系的系统性挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此,AI产业发展重心正发生迁移:过去市场围绕GPU展开竞争,未来决定系统扩展能力的将是整个存储体系。从先进制程、HBM、封装,到CXL、MRDIMM、存算一体及新材料,围绕“内存之墙”的技术创新将成为AI基础设施升级的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">简言之,G<strong>PU决定AI跑多快,内存系统决定AI走多远。 下一轮AI投资机会,也将从计算芯片延伸至整个存储产业链。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4060125191\" style=\"text-align: left;\">六大创新方向打开产业空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">围绕突破"存储墙",摩根士丹利将未来技术演进归纳为六大方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一是先进制程。</strong> DRAM已进入1γ(1c)节点时代,三星、SK海力士和美光均已启动量产或爬坡。不过,从1β到1γ的线宽缩小幅度已不足10%,二维DRAM正逐渐接近物理极限。NAND方面,行业已迈入200层至300层时代,美光量产276层产品、三星第九代V-NAND达到286层、SK海力士已实现321层量产,路线图则指向2030年前突破1000层。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二是存储架构创新。</strong> 包括PLC NAND、3D DRAM、ZAM以及zHBM等新架构正在推进。其中,3D DRAM希望通过垂直堆叠突破密度瓶颈,但具备完整电容结构的量产仍需较长时间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三是先进封装。</strong> HBM路线图正迈向HBM4和HBM4E,预计2027年16层HBM4E将实现量产,单栈带宽达到1.5TB/s至2TB/s以上。SanDisk推出的高带宽闪存(HBF)则通过TSV连接多个3D NAND阵列,可提供最高4TB显存容量,在带宽接近HBM的同时,容量达到其8至16倍,首批样品预计于2026年下半年交付。此外,晶圆级堆叠(WoW)市场预计将由2025年的1000万美元快速增长至2030年的98亿美元,年复合增速高达322%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第四是外围互连芯片。</strong> MRDIMM通过集成MRCD和MDB芯片,实现双通道并行访问,可将有效带宽提升至DDR5原生频率的两倍。CXL则借助PCIe实现内存扩展,突破传统DIMM容量限制。摩根士丹利将2030年CXL MXC芯片市场规模预测由9.9亿美元上调至21亿美元,CXL交换芯片市场规模则由6.64亿美元上调至19亿美元。进入DDR6时代,双路服务器RCD芯片用量预计将由24颗增至96颗。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第五是存算一体(PIM/CIM)。</strong> 三星HBM-PIM(Aquabolt-XL)和SK海力士GDDR6-AiM已进入商业化阶段。实验数据显示,PIM可将平均内存访问延迟降低逾50%,部分场景性能提升最高可达16倍,能效提升超过80%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第六是新材料。</strong> 包括Si/SiGe超晶格沟道、TiO₂基电容介质、HZO铁电材料以及钼金属化等新材料体系正加速导入,以降低功耗、提升存储密度并改善制造工艺,为下一代3D DRAM和3D NAND提供支撑。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利警示\"内存之墙\":GPU决定AI跑多快,内存决定AI走多远\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-16 22:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着大模型参数规模、推理Token和Agentic AI快速增长,存储系统正成为制约AI进一步扩张的核心限制因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利在最新发布的全球科技深度报告中提出,<strong>容量不足、带宽受限和成本高企共同构成"存储墙"(Memory Wall),未来AI基础设施的竞争,将越来越取决于谁能突破这一系统性瓶颈。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,到2030年,Agentic AI将贡献全球DRAM新增需求的26%至77%,云端存储支出将增至4180亿美元,2026年至2030年复合增速约8%。与此同时,存储在云厂商资本开支中的占比将由2023年的12%提升至2027年的40%,资本投入强度持续攀升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利认为,<strong>这意味着AI产业链的投资逻辑正从GPU等计算芯片,逐步向整个存储生态扩散。</strong>未来受益的不仅是传统存储厂商,还包括制程、封装、互连、材料、存算一体等多个细分方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告预计,<strong>不含HBM的新型存储技术总市场规模(TAM)将从2025年的12亿美元扩大至2030年的230亿美元;若计入HBM,2030年整体市场规模有望达到2760亿美元。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3993437438\" style=\"text-align: left;\">从GPU到存储体系:AI基础设施的“重心迁移”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利指出,<strong>AI产业的核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:处理器性能持续攀升,但存储带宽与容量的提升严重滞后。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据显示,DDR5单通道带宽预计仅从2024年的44.8GB/s增至2026年的51.2GB/s,两年增幅约14%;而同期全球AI推理Token生成量将从每月约10万亿个激增至3200万亿个,增长超320倍,两者差距急剧拉大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>存储成本亦成为AI部署的关键制约。</strong>当前CPU服务器中存储相关BOM成本占比高达73%,DRAM每GB价格更回升至近30年高位。摩根士丹利认为,这已不仅是供给不足,更折射出架构、接口、封装、计算模式与材料体系的系统性挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此,AI产业发展重心正发生迁移:过去市场围绕GPU展开竞争,未来决定系统扩展能力的将是整个存储体系。从先进制程、HBM、封装,到CXL、MRDIMM、存算一体及新材料,围绕“内存之墙”的技术创新将成为AI基础设施升级的主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">简言之,G<strong>PU决定AI跑多快,内存系统决定AI走多远。 下一轮AI投资机会,也将从计算芯片延伸至整个存储产业链。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_4060125191\" style=\"text-align: left;\">六大创新方向打开产业空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">围绕突破"存储墙",摩根士丹利将未来技术演进归纳为六大方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一是先进制程。</strong> DRAM已进入1γ(1c)节点时代,三星、SK海力士和美光均已启动量产或爬坡。不过,从1β到1γ的线宽缩小幅度已不足10%,二维DRAM正逐渐接近物理极限。NAND方面,行业已迈入200层至300层时代,美光量产276层产品、三星第九代V-NAND达到286层、SK海力士已实现321层量产,路线图则指向2030年前突破1000层。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二是存储架构创新。</strong> 包括PLC NAND、3D DRAM、ZAM以及zHBM等新架构正在推进。其中,3D DRAM希望通过垂直堆叠突破密度瓶颈,但具备完整电容结构的量产仍需较长时间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三是先进封装。</strong> HBM路线图正迈向HBM4和HBM4E,预计2027年16层HBM4E将实现量产,单栈带宽达到1.5TB/s至2TB/s以上。SanDisk推出的高带宽闪存(HBF)则通过TSV连接多个3D NAND阵列,可提供最高4TB显存容量,在带宽接近HBM的同时,容量达到其8至16倍,首批样品预计于2026年下半年交付。此外,晶圆级堆叠(WoW)市场预计将由2025年的1000万美元快速增长至2030年的98亿美元,年复合增速高达322%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第四是外围互连芯片。</strong> MRDIMM通过集成MRCD和MDB芯片,实现双通道并行访问,可将有效带宽提升至DDR5原生频率的两倍。CXL则借助PCIe实现内存扩展,突破传统DIMM容量限制。摩根士丹利将2030年CXL MXC芯片市场规模预测由9.9亿美元上调至21亿美元,CXL交换芯片市场规模则由6.64亿美元上调至19亿美元。进入DDR6时代,双路服务器RCD芯片用量预计将由24颗增至96颗。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第五是存算一体(PIM/CIM)。</strong> 三星HBM-PIM(Aquabolt-XL)和SK海力士GDDR6-AiM已进入商业化阶段。实验数据显示,PIM可将平均内存访问延迟降低逾50%,部分场景性能提升最高可达16倍,能效提升超过80%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第六是新材料。</strong> 包括Si/SiGe超晶格沟道、TiO₂基电容介质、HZO铁电材料以及钼金属化等新材料体系正加速导入,以降低功耗、提升存储密度并改善制造工艺,为下一代3D DRAM和3D NAND提供支撑。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" 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SGD-H1","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","DRAL":"2倍做多DRAM ETF-Defiance","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","DRAM":"Roundhill Memory ETF","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777129","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2651428177","content_text":"摩根士丹利指出,AI核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:DDR5带宽两年仅增14%,而推理Token同期激增超320倍,DRAM价格重回近30年高位。预计2030年云端存储支出达4180亿美元,存储占云厂商资本开支比重将由12%升至40%。未来竞争关键在于突破容量、带宽与成本制约的存储体系,投资逻辑从GPU向制程、封装、互连、存算一体及新材料等六大方向扩散。随着大模型参数规模、推理Token和Agentic AI快速增长,存储系统正成为制约AI进一步扩张的核心限制因素。摩根士丹利在最新发布的全球科技深度报告中提出,容量不足、带宽受限和成本高企共同构成\"存储墙\"(Memory Wall),未来AI基础设施的竞争,将越来越取决于谁能突破这一系统性瓶颈。报告预计,到2030年,Agentic AI将贡献全球DRAM新增需求的26%至77%,云端存储支出将增至4180亿美元,2026年至2030年复合增速约8%。与此同时,存储在云厂商资本开支中的占比将由2023年的12%提升至2027年的40%,资本投入强度持续攀升。摩根士丹利认为,这意味着AI产业链的投资逻辑正从GPU等计算芯片,逐步向整个存储生态扩散。未来受益的不仅是传统存储厂商,还包括制程、封装、互连、材料、存算一体等多个细分方向。报告预计,不含HBM的新型存储技术总市场规模(TAM)将从2025年的12亿美元扩大至2030年的230亿美元;若计入HBM,2030年整体市场规模有望达到2760亿美元。从GPU到存储体系:AI基础设施的“重心迁移”摩根士丹利指出,AI产业的核心瓶颈正从“算力墙”转向“存储墙”:处理器性能持续攀升,但存储带宽与容量的提升严重滞后。数据显示,DDR5单通道带宽预计仅从2024年的44.8GB/s增至2026年的51.2GB/s,两年增幅约14%;而同期全球AI推理Token生成量将从每月约10万亿个激增至3200万亿个,增长超320倍,两者差距急剧拉大。存储成本亦成为AI部署的关键制约。当前CPU服务器中存储相关BOM成本占比高达73%,DRAM每GB价格更回升至近30年高位。摩根士丹利认为,这已不仅是供给不足,更折射出架构、接口、封装、计算模式与材料体系的系统性挑战。由此,AI产业发展重心正发生迁移:过去市场围绕GPU展开竞争,未来决定系统扩展能力的将是整个存储体系。从先进制程、HBM、封装,到CXL、MRDIMM、存算一体及新材料,围绕“内存之墙”的技术创新将成为AI基础设施升级的主要驱动力。简言之,GPU决定AI跑多快,内存系统决定AI走多远。 下一轮AI投资机会,也将从计算芯片延伸至整个存储产业链。六大创新方向打开产业空间围绕突破\"存储墙\",摩根士丹利将未来技术演进归纳为六大方向。第一是先进制程。 DRAM已进入1γ(1c)节点时代,三星、SK海力士和美光均已启动量产或爬坡。不过,从1β到1γ的线宽缩小幅度已不足10%,二维DRAM正逐渐接近物理极限。NAND方面,行业已迈入200层至300层时代,美光量产276层产品、三星第九代V-NAND达到286层、SK海力士已实现321层量产,路线图则指向2030年前突破1000层。第二是存储架构创新。 包括PLC NAND、3D DRAM、ZAM以及zHBM等新架构正在推进。其中,3D DRAM希望通过垂直堆叠突破密度瓶颈,但具备完整电容结构的量产仍需较长时间。第三是先进封装。 HBM路线图正迈向HBM4和HBM4E,预计2027年16层HBM4E将实现量产,单栈带宽达到1.5TB/s至2TB/s以上。SanDisk推出的高带宽闪存(HBF)则通过TSV连接多个3D NAND阵列,可提供最高4TB显存容量,在带宽接近HBM的同时,容量达到其8至16倍,首批样品预计于2026年下半年交付。此外,晶圆级堆叠(WoW)市场预计将由2025年的1000万美元快速增长至2030年的98亿美元,年复合增速高达322%。第四是外围互连芯片。 MRDIMM通过集成MRCD和MDB芯片,实现双通道并行访问,可将有效带宽提升至DDR5原生频率的两倍。CXL则借助PCIe实现内存扩展,突破传统DIMM容量限制。摩根士丹利将2030年CXL MXC芯片市场规模预测由9.9亿美元上调至21亿美元,CXL交换芯片市场规模则由6.64亿美元上调至19亿美元。进入DDR6时代,双路服务器RCD芯片用量预计将由24颗增至96颗。第五是存算一体(PIM/CIM)。 三星HBM-PIM(Aquabolt-XL)和SK海力士GDDR6-AiM已进入商业化阶段。实验数据显示,PIM可将平均内存访问延迟降低逾50%,部分场景性能提升最高可达16倍,能效提升超过80%。第六是新材料。 包括Si/SiGe超晶格沟道、TiO₂基电容介质、HZO铁电材料以及钼金属化等新材料体系正加速导入,以降低功耗、提升存储密度并改善制造工艺,为下一代3D DRAM和3D NAND提供支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KBWB":0.6,"CHAT":1.5,"IAI":0.6,"AGIX":1.5,"MS":1.5,"DRAL":0.6,"AIPO":1.5,"QTOC":1.5,"VTHR":1.5,"ARTY":1.5,"RAM":0.6,"DRAM":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":578268565177200,"gmtCreate":1782187985132,"gmtModify":1782189120390,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 开始收割了,ESG都不过关,很多基金不可以买入的,后面还有原始股抛压,冲进去的散户韭菜这波估计两三年回不来了,高高的站在山岗上了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 开始收割了,ESG都不过关,很多基金不可以买入的,后面还有原始股抛压,冲进去的散户韭菜这波估计两三年回不来了,高高的站在山岗上了","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 开始收割了,ESG都不过关,很多基金不可以买入的,后面还有原始股抛压,冲进去的散户韭菜这波估计两三年回不来了,高高的站在山岗上了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/578268565177200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171852166939492","authorId":"4171852166939492","name":"飞翔正版","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4171852166939492","idStr":"4171852166939492"},"content":"没事,反正是模拟盘 [龇牙]","text":"没事,反正是模拟盘 [龇牙]","html":"没事,反正是模拟盘 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机构又要搞事情了,之前唱空闪迪,一会儿又要砸盘博通,实际上就是吓唬散户,把散户震下车,股价低了逢低买入。他们知道涨太快了后面没得玩了,先缓一下,搞点花样。目前AI叙事没变,投入每减少,跌都是假跌。只要看英伟达是不是继续在大量出货,有没有放缓。高端存储产能要扩产没那么简单,设厂买设备调试起码2-3年。跌了就是上车机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571946393735832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":578733649760856,"gmtCreate":1782301530766,"gmtModify":1782301818619,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ </a> 那么多现金在手里,为啥不投点自己,回购点股份不好吗,而且现在股价那么便宜。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ </a> 那么多现金在手里,为啥不投点自己,回购点股份不好吗,而且现在股价那么便宜。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 那么多现金在手里,为啥不投点自己,回购点股份不好吗,而且现在股价那么便宜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/578733649760856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117954127910450","authorId":"4117954127910450","name":"凉风羽羽毛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4117954127910450","idStr":"4117954127910450"},"content":"股价低不低的他们不在乎,千亿供应链,你想想多少油水","text":"股价低不低的他们不在乎,千亿供应链,你想想多少油水","html":"股价低不低的他们不在乎,千亿供应链,你想想多少油水"},{"author":{"id":"168783092076414","authorId":"168783092076414","name":"土司","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198afb48b98a5d0c0a8fd93bc993100c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"168783092076414","idStr":"168783092076414"},"content":"可能是想等到20多元的时候再回购吧。","text":"可能是想等到20多元的时候再回购吧。","html":"可能是想等到20多元的时候再回购吧。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":536423406006400,"gmtCreate":1771948148959,"gmtModify":1771949495332,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个机构早点不出来做空,就等英伟达财报前来发文章,AI基础建设大趋势没根本变化,巨头投资都是事实,订单一个一个的下,闪存配合英伟达芯片是必须品,这个事实也没变化,为什么说不可持续,三星扩产能难道一夜之间就能扩出来?建厂,设备采购,调试产线,供应链配套,都是需要时间的,给他一说,闪存的寒冬立即就要到了一样。就是机构唱戏吓唬胆小的散户,让散户坐电梯交出筹码的勾当而已。","listText":"这个机构早点不出来做空,就等英伟达财报前来发文章,AI基础建设大趋势没根本变化,巨头投资都是事实,订单一个一个的下,闪存配合英伟达芯片是必须品,这个事实也没变化,为什么说不可持续,三星扩产能难道一夜之间就能扩出来?建厂,设备采购,调试产线,供应链配套,都是需要时间的,给他一说,闪存的寒冬立即就要到了一样。就是机构唱戏吓唬胆小的散户,让散户坐电梯交出筹码的勾当而已。","text":"这个机构早点不出来做空,就等英伟达财报前来发文章,AI基础建设大趋势没根本变化,巨头投资都是事实,订单一个一个的下,闪存配合英伟达芯片是必须品,这个事实也没变化,为什么说不可持续,三星扩产能难道一夜之间就能扩出来?建厂,设备采购,调试产线,供应链配套,都是需要时间的,给他一说,闪存的寒冬立即就要到了一样。就是机构唱戏吓唬胆小的散户,让散户坐电梯交出筹码的勾当而已。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/536423406006400","repostId":"1120902790","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120902790","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1771944490,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120902790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-24 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"知名做空机构香橼称正在做空闪迪,指存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120902790","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>知名做空机构香橼称正在做空 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a> ,指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。</strong></p><p>香橼续称,市场正按照英伟达的逻辑给闪迪定价,但这存在一个致命问题:英伟达拥有护城河,而闪迪销售的仅仅是大宗商品。存储芯片本质上是周期性行业,而周期终会见顶。</p><p>闪迪盘中震荡下挫,截至发稿跌幅超5%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a> 跌近3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a> 跌2%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a> 跌约1%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943ede7ba4aac71b369748ef6729a72f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1160973a09dc1249fa306fd91b9d84c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"860\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-24 22:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>知名做空机构香橼称正在做空 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a> ,指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。</strong></p><p>香橼续称,市场正按照英伟达的逻辑给闪迪定价,但这存在一个致命问题:英伟达拥有护城河,而闪迪销售的仅仅是大宗商品。存储芯片本质上是周期性行业,而周期终会见顶。</p><p>闪迪盘中震荡下挫,截至发稿跌幅超5%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a> 跌近3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a> 跌2%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a> 跌约1%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943ede7ba4aac71b369748ef6729a72f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1160973a09dc1249fa306fd91b9d84c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"860\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42124aee3650a48de8abd3a477140231","relate_stocks":{"SNDK":"闪迪"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120902790","content_text":"知名做空机构香橼称正在做空 闪迪 ,指当前存储芯片市场繁荣为“供应幻象”。香橼续称,市场正按照英伟达的逻辑给闪迪定价,但这存在一个致命问题:英伟达拥有护城河,而闪迪销售的仅仅是大宗商品。存储芯片本质上是周期性行业,而周期终会见顶。闪迪盘中震荡下挫,截至发稿跌幅超5%。同时, 希捷科技 跌近3%, 西部数据 跌2%, 美光科技 跌约1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDK":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":572198526386376,"gmtCreate":1780721539364,"gmtModify":1780723396972,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这种报告就是和华尔街的机构串谋的。真的是一会儿一个香橼现在又来一个。不太平啊","listText":"这种报告就是和华尔街的机构串谋的。真的是一会儿一个香橼现在又来一个。不太平啊","text":"这种报告就是和华尔街的机构串谋的。真的是一会儿一个香橼现在又来一个。不太平啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572198526386376","repostId":"2641126679","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2641126679","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1780718953,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2641126679?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-06 12:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“黑色星期五”的导火索?Semianalysis报告“重创”美光","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2641126679","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SemiAnalysis发布关于英伟达削减内存容量的报告,被市场解读为AI需求降温,导致美光在获英伟达HBM4认证的同日股价重挫13%,创2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。该机构虽否认看空,但因其屡次发布看空美光的误导性叙事且频遭基本面“打脸”,正引发市场对其研究质量的强烈质疑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一份来自半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis的报告,再度成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价单日重挫的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五,美光股价收跌13%,创下2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅,而这已是SemiAnalysis多次发布看空美光相关报告后引发市场恐慌的最新一例。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cfd865fd1d9918ae29bf5d09c0818b01\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2302\" tg-height=\"1466\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次下跌的直接触发点,是SemiAnalysis发布报告称,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>已将其下一代Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存容量从55TB大幅削减至28TB,市场将此解读为AI内存需求降温的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息一出,美光股价当日重挫,半导体板块全线承压,三大股指悉数收跌。值得注意的是,就在同一天,英伟达CEO黄仁勋公开宣布,美光已与SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>一同通过英伟达HBM4认证,成为最新一代高带宽内存的合格供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>然而,利好消息未能抵挡报告引发的抛售浪潮。</strong>SemiAnalysis随后在社交平台X上发文回应,称其分析"并无任何看空之处",但这一辩解在市场上几乎未能引发任何反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,多位市场人士和网友对SemiAnalysis的研究质量及信息传播方式提出强烈质疑,认为<strong>该机构已多次以"深度研究"之名制造看空美光的叙事,却屡屡被股价走势和公司基本面所打脸。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">利好与利空同日上演,美光单日重挫13%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五对美光而言是矛盾的一天。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄仁勋在公开场合确认,<strong>美光已与SK海力士和三星并列,成为英伟达HBM4认证供应商。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街分析师此前普遍预期英伟达将采用三家供应商,但KeyBanc分析师John Vinh曾指出SK海力士和美光在满足英伟达标准方面存在一定问题。因此,此次官方认证对美光而言本应是重大利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,美光股价当日仍收跌13%,报864.01美元,为2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。叠加周四7.7%的跌幅,美光两日累计跌幅已超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据道琼斯市场数据,此前美光股价在过去12个月内累计涨幅超过735%,高估值令其对任何获利回吐行为都极为敏感。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis报告的核心争议:模块化内存还是HBM?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次引发市场波动的SemiAnalysis报告,核心内容是<strong>英伟达削减了Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存(SOCAMM DRAM)容量。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">需要指出的是,模块化内存与驱动AI服务器内存芯片需求的高带宽内存(HBM)是两个不同的产品类别。SemiAnalysis创始人Dylan Patel随后发文澄清,称该机构的分析"并无任何看空之处"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据巴伦周刊报道,英伟达削减模块化内存容量,实际上可能反映的是HBM挤出效应正在发生——由于HBM生产极为耗费晶圆产能(每单位HBM所需晶圆产能约为标准内存的三倍),HBM供应扩张必然压缩其他内存类型的产能,并推高整个内存行业的价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构Trendforce的分析师写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"随着HBM技术代际在2027年持续演进,芯片尺寸扩大与需求同步上升,对传统DRAM产能的挤出效应预计将进一步加剧。这将为供应商提供充分理由上调HBM价格,并强化其在明年HBM谈判中的定价权。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">屡次"看空"屡次被打脸,SemiAnalysis成争议焦点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次事件并非SemiAnalysis第一次因涉及美光的报告引发市场波动,也并非第一次事后被证明方向有误。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交平台X用户@Klaytonlolus整理了SemiAnalysis过去数月内多次发布看空美光相关报告的时间线:</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月初</strong>,SemiAnalysis称美光HBM4样品引脚速度偏弱,落后于SK海力士和三星。彼时美光股价约430美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾114%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月28日</strong>,SemiAnalysis称英伟达Rubin首年HBM4订单"看不到美光的身影"。彼时美光股价435.28美元,此后同样涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾111%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2月6日</strong>,SemiAnalysis发布最具影响力的一篇报告,称美光在Rubin首个12个月内的HBM4份额"基本归零"。彼时美光股价394.69美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾133%;若从3月低点321美元算起,涨幅更超186%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>6月4日至5日</strong>,SemiAnalysis再度发布报告,称英伟达削减Vera Rubin CPU侧SOCAMM DRAM容量,暗示内存需求降温。美光6月4日收于996美元,次日跌至920美元附近,单日跌幅约7.5%。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b9dcfa6eac78d1d611137d196d7b67\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"767\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd80a19931ad976fbaedff42ec5c6b4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus在帖子中写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"这已经不只是'一次判断失误'的问题。这是反复以极度自信的语气,将供应链故事包装成深度行业研究,然后被股价、基本面和AI内存超级周期狠狠打脸。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis回应:信息不对称之争</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对外界批评,SemiAnalysis回应称,其报告的真实结论是"美光HBM延迟对美光而言是利好,因为普通DDR的利润率高于HBM",并表示批评者根本没有读过完整报告,"那些这么说的人甚至没有订阅权限"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ceddc1710699824418c779e6510fcd\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"138\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,这一回应本身也引发了新的争议。用户Vinit Baliyan质问道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"为什么你们不能向更广泛的订阅用户分享这类信息?你们是否在向机构客户提供准确信息,同时让普通订阅者和散户陷入困惑?这实际上是在给你们的富有客户提供不对称优势,代价是散户投资者的利益。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ee670b5f94ea818e75b3eede14033f3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"307\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一位用户Klaytonlolus则指出,SemiAnalysis的报告被多家媒体广泛引用,核心信息被解读为"英伟达未向美光下达HBM4订单",这是明确的看空框架。美光CFO随后公开反驳"不准确的报道",称HBM4已进入大规模量产阶段,客户出货已经开始,且量产节奏比此前预期提前了一个季度。美光随后正式宣布HBM4 36GB 12H进入大规模量产,专为英伟达Vera Rubin设计,带宽超过2.8 TB/s,能效提升逾20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus写道,"问题不在于读者是否读了完整报告,问题在于你们的标题、摘要和框架制造了明确的看空美光叙事,而这一叙事后来被美光管理层和官方产品公告所推翻。这不是'深度研究',这是不负责任的框架,加上事后的危机公关。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94e709dfd649e05e675b89fbc44082ee\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管批评声浪不小,SemiAnalysis在业内仍有一定支持者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">付费订阅用户"Macho Man Randy Newman"表示,</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis的深度报告帮助他在内存股已大幅上涨后仍坚定持仓,目前其美光持仓已实现22倍回报。他认为,SemiAnalysis提供的是详细的事实性报道,但其编辑性结论则需要读者自行判断。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b900c6ff2a4481dcea88962e9f6a01f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"157\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用户Dave则持中立立场:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"无论这些博客和Substack写得多么详尽,它们终究只是它们本身。做好自己的研究,如果你有信念,就必须过滤掉噪音。我个人认为SemiAnalysis提供的信号多于噪音,但没有人是没有偏见的。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9d56241a1a2580004cf43076e1c9a19\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"160\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也有用户将矛头指向更深层的市场结构问题。用户IVCrushLeague评论道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"如果一位分析师对SK海力士或三星的判断出错到这种程度,他们早就要躲起来了。这也是为什么这类恐慌性信息主要针对美光。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58845bdfa0f3e44592d42945386024aa\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"137\"/><span></span></p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“黑色星期五”的导火索?Semianalysis报告“重创”美光\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-06 12:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一份来自半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis的报告,再度成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>股价单日重挫的导火索。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五,美光股价收跌13%,创下2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅,而这已是SemiAnalysis多次发布看空美光相关报告后引发市场恐慌的最新一例。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cfd865fd1d9918ae29bf5d09c0818b01\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2302\" tg-height=\"1466\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次下跌的直接触发点,是SemiAnalysis发布报告称,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>已将其下一代Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存容量从55TB大幅削减至28TB,市场将此解读为AI内存需求降温的信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息一出,美光股价当日重挫,半导体板块全线承压,三大股指悉数收跌。值得注意的是,就在同一天,英伟达CEO黄仁勋公开宣布,美光已与SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>一同通过英伟达HBM4认证,成为最新一代高带宽内存的合格供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>然而,利好消息未能抵挡报告引发的抛售浪潮。</strong>SemiAnalysis随后在社交平台X上发文回应,称其分析"并无任何看空之处",但这一辩解在市场上几乎未能引发任何反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,多位市场人士和网友对SemiAnalysis的研究质量及信息传播方式提出强烈质疑,认为<strong>该机构已多次以"深度研究"之名制造看空美光的叙事,却屡屡被股价走势和公司基本面所打脸。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">利好与利空同日上演,美光单日重挫13%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五对美光而言是矛盾的一天。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄仁勋在公开场合确认,<strong>美光已与SK海力士和三星并列,成为英伟达HBM4认证供应商。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街分析师此前普遍预期英伟达将采用三家供应商,但KeyBanc分析师John Vinh曾指出SK海力士和美光在满足英伟达标准方面存在一定问题。因此,此次官方认证对美光而言本应是重大利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,美光股价当日仍收跌13%,报864.01美元,为2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。叠加周四7.7%的跌幅,美光两日累计跌幅已超过20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据道琼斯市场数据,此前美光股价在过去12个月内累计涨幅超过735%,高估值令其对任何获利回吐行为都极为敏感。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis报告的核心争议:模块化内存还是HBM?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次引发市场波动的SemiAnalysis报告,核心内容是<strong>英伟达削减了Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存(SOCAMM DRAM)容量。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">需要指出的是,模块化内存与驱动AI服务器内存芯片需求的高带宽内存(HBM)是两个不同的产品类别。SemiAnalysis创始人Dylan Patel随后发文澄清,称该机构的分析"并无任何看空之处"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据巴伦周刊报道,英伟达削减模块化内存容量,实际上可能反映的是HBM挤出效应正在发生——由于HBM生产极为耗费晶圆产能(每单位HBM所需晶圆产能约为标准内存的三倍),HBM供应扩张必然压缩其他内存类型的产能,并推高整个内存行业的价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构Trendforce的分析师写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"随着HBM技术代际在2027年持续演进,芯片尺寸扩大与需求同步上升,对传统DRAM产能的挤出效应预计将进一步加剧。这将为供应商提供充分理由上调HBM价格,并强化其在明年HBM谈判中的定价权。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">屡次"看空"屡次被打脸,SemiAnalysis成争议焦点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次事件并非SemiAnalysis第一次因涉及美光的报告引发市场波动,也并非第一次事后被证明方向有误。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交平台X用户@Klaytonlolus整理了SemiAnalysis过去数月内多次发布看空美光相关报告的时间线:</p><blockquote><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月初</strong>,SemiAnalysis称美光HBM4样品引脚速度偏弱,落后于SK海力士和三星。彼时美光股价约430美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾114%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1月28日</strong>,SemiAnalysis称英伟达Rubin首年HBM4订单"看不到美光的身影"。彼时美光股价435.28美元,此后同样涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾111%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2月6日</strong>,SemiAnalysis发布最具影响力的一篇报告,称美光在Rubin首个12个月内的HBM4份额"基本归零"。彼时美光股价394.69美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾133%;若从3月低点321美元算起,涨幅更超186%。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>6月4日至5日</strong>,SemiAnalysis再度发布报告,称英伟达削减Vera Rubin CPU侧SOCAMM DRAM容量,暗示内存需求降温。美光6月4日收于996美元,次日跌至920美元附近,单日跌幅约7.5%。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b9dcfa6eac78d1d611137d196d7b67\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"767\"/><span></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7cd80a19931ad976fbaedff42ec5c6b4\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"465\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus在帖子中写道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"这已经不只是'一次判断失误'的问题。这是反复以极度自信的语气,将供应链故事包装成深度行业研究,然后被股价、基本面和AI内存超级周期狠狠打脸。"</p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis回应:信息不对称之争</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对外界批评,SemiAnalysis回应称,其报告的真实结论是"美光HBM延迟对美光而言是利好,因为普通DDR的利润率高于HBM",并表示批评者根本没有读过完整报告,"那些这么说的人甚至没有订阅权限"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ceddc1710699824418c779e6510fcd\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"138\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,这一回应本身也引发了新的争议。用户Vinit Baliyan质问道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"为什么你们不能向更广泛的订阅用户分享这类信息?你们是否在向机构客户提供准确信息,同时让普通订阅者和散户陷入困惑?这实际上是在给你们的富有客户提供不对称优势,代价是散户投资者的利益。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ee670b5f94ea818e75b3eede14033f3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"307\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一位用户Klaytonlolus则指出,SemiAnalysis的报告被多家媒体广泛引用,核心信息被解读为"英伟达未向美光下达HBM4订单",这是明确的看空框架。美光CFO随后公开反驳"不准确的报道",称HBM4已进入大规模量产阶段,客户出货已经开始,且量产节奏比此前预期提前了一个季度。美光随后正式宣布HBM4 36GB 12H进入大规模量产,专为英伟达Vera Rubin设计,带宽超过2.8 TB/s,能效提升逾20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Klaytonlolus写道,"问题不在于读者是否读了完整报告,问题在于你们的标题、摘要和框架制造了明确的看空美光叙事,而这一叙事后来被美光管理层和官方产品公告所推翻。这不是'深度研究',这是不负责任的框架,加上事后的危机公关。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94e709dfd649e05e675b89fbc44082ee\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"609\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管批评声浪不小,SemiAnalysis在业内仍有一定支持者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">付费订阅用户"Macho Man Randy Newman"表示,</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis的深度报告帮助他在内存股已大幅上涨后仍坚定持仓,目前其美光持仓已实现22倍回报。他认为,SemiAnalysis提供的是详细的事实性报道,但其编辑性结论则需要读者自行判断。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b900c6ff2a4481dcea88962e9f6a01f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"157\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用户Dave则持中立立场:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"无论这些博客和Substack写得多么详尽,它们终究只是它们本身。做好自己的研究,如果你有信念,就必须过滤掉噪音。我个人认为SemiAnalysis提供的信号多于噪音,但没有人是没有偏见的。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a9d56241a1a2580004cf43076e1c9a19\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"160\"/><span></span></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也有用户将矛头指向更深层的市场结构问题。用户IVCrushLeague评论道:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"如果一位分析师对SK海力士或三星的判断出错到这种程度,他们早就要躲起来了。这也是为什么这类恐慌性信息主要针对美光。"</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58845bdfa0f3e44592d42945386024aa\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"137\"/><span></span></p></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00dac9da971ee0e08b72a17d0d0b507","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4566":"资本集团","MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A 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VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774017","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2641126679","content_text":"一份来自半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis的报告,再度成为美光科技股价单日重挫的导火索。周五,美光股价收跌13%,创下2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅,而这已是SemiAnalysis多次发布看空美光相关报告后引发市场恐慌的最新一例。本次下跌的直接触发点,是SemiAnalysis发布报告称,英伟达已将其下一代Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存容量从55TB大幅削减至28TB,市场将此解读为AI内存需求降温的信号。消息一出,美光股价当日重挫,半导体板块全线承压,三大股指悉数收跌。值得注意的是,就在同一天,英伟达CEO黄仁勋公开宣布,美光已与SK海力士、三星一同通过英伟达HBM4认证,成为最新一代高带宽内存的合格供应商。然而,利好消息未能抵挡报告引发的抛售浪潮。SemiAnalysis随后在社交平台X上发文回应,称其分析\"并无任何看空之处\",但这一辩解在市场上几乎未能引发任何反转。与此同时,多位市场人士和网友对SemiAnalysis的研究质量及信息传播方式提出强烈质疑,认为该机构已多次以\"深度研究\"之名制造看空美光的叙事,却屡屡被股价走势和公司基本面所打脸。利好与利空同日上演,美光单日重挫13%周五对美光而言是矛盾的一天。黄仁勋在公开场合确认,美光已与SK海力士和三星并列,成为英伟达HBM4认证供应商。华尔街分析师此前普遍预期英伟达将采用三家供应商,但KeyBanc分析师John Vinh曾指出SK海力士和美光在满足英伟达标准方面存在一定问题。因此,此次官方认证对美光而言本应是重大利好。然而,美光股价当日仍收跌13%,报864.01美元,为2025年4月以来最大单日跌幅。叠加周四7.7%的跌幅,美光两日累计跌幅已超过20%。据道琼斯市场数据,此前美光股价在过去12个月内累计涨幅超过735%,高估值令其对任何获利回吐行为都极为敏感。SemiAnalysis报告的核心争议:模块化内存还是HBM?本次引发市场波动的SemiAnalysis报告,核心内容是英伟达削减了Vera Rubin服务器机架的模块化内存(SOCAMM DRAM)容量。需要指出的是,模块化内存与驱动AI服务器内存芯片需求的高带宽内存(HBM)是两个不同的产品类别。SemiAnalysis创始人Dylan Patel随后发文澄清,称该机构的分析\"并无任何看空之处\"。据巴伦周刊报道,英伟达削减模块化内存容量,实际上可能反映的是HBM挤出效应正在发生——由于HBM生产极为耗费晶圆产能(每单位HBM所需晶圆产能约为标准内存的三倍),HBM供应扩张必然压缩其他内存类型的产能,并推高整个内存行业的价格。研究机构Trendforce的分析师写道:\"随着HBM技术代际在2027年持续演进,芯片尺寸扩大与需求同步上升,对传统DRAM产能的挤出效应预计将进一步加剧。这将为供应商提供充分理由上调HBM价格,并强化其在明年HBM谈判中的定价权。\"屡次\"看空\"屡次被打脸,SemiAnalysis成争议焦点此次事件并非SemiAnalysis第一次因涉及美光的报告引发市场波动,也并非第一次事后被证明方向有误。社交平台X用户@Klaytonlolus整理了SemiAnalysis过去数月内多次发布看空美光相关报告的时间线:1月初,SemiAnalysis称美光HBM4样品引脚速度偏弱,落后于SK海力士和三星。彼时美光股价约430美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾114%。1月28日,SemiAnalysis称英伟达Rubin首年HBM4订单\"看不到美光的身影\"。彼时美光股价435.28美元,此后同样涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾111%。2月6日,SemiAnalysis发布最具影响力的一篇报告,称美光在Rubin首个12个月内的HBM4份额\"基本归零\"。彼时美光股价394.69美元,此后涨至920美元以上,涨幅逾133%;若从3月低点321美元算起,涨幅更超186%。6月4日至5日,SemiAnalysis再度发布报告,称英伟达削减Vera Rubin CPU侧SOCAMM DRAM容量,暗示内存需求降温。美光6月4日收于996美元,次日跌至920美元附近,单日跌幅约7.5%。Klaytonlolus在帖子中写道:\"这已经不只是'一次判断失误'的问题。这是反复以极度自信的语气,将供应链故事包装成深度行业研究,然后被股价、基本面和AI内存超级周期狠狠打脸。\"SemiAnalysis回应:信息不对称之争面对外界批评,SemiAnalysis回应称,其报告的真实结论是\"美光HBM延迟对美光而言是利好,因为普通DDR的利润率高于HBM\",并表示批评者根本没有读过完整报告,\"那些这么说的人甚至没有订阅权限\"。然而,这一回应本身也引发了新的争议。用户Vinit Baliyan质问道:\"为什么你们不能向更广泛的订阅用户分享这类信息?你们是否在向机构客户提供准确信息,同时让普通订阅者和散户陷入困惑?这实际上是在给你们的富有客户提供不对称优势,代价是散户投资者的利益。\"另一位用户Klaytonlolus则指出,SemiAnalysis的报告被多家媒体广泛引用,核心信息被解读为\"英伟达未向美光下达HBM4订单\",这是明确的看空框架。美光CFO随后公开反驳\"不准确的报道\",称HBM4已进入大规模量产阶段,客户出货已经开始,且量产节奏比此前预期提前了一个季度。美光随后正式宣布HBM4 36GB 12H进入大规模量产,专为英伟达Vera Rubin设计,带宽超过2.8 TB/s,能效提升逾20%。Klaytonlolus写道,\"问题不在于读者是否读了完整报告,问题在于你们的标题、摘要和框架制造了明确的看空美光叙事,而这一叙事后来被美光管理层和官方产品公告所推翻。这不是'深度研究',这是不负责任的框架,加上事后的危机公关。\"尽管批评声浪不小,SemiAnalysis在业内仍有一定支持者。付费订阅用户\"Macho Man Randy Newman\"表示,SemiAnalysis的深度报告帮助他在内存股已大幅上涨后仍坚定持仓,目前其美光持仓已实现22倍回报。他认为,SemiAnalysis提供的是详细的事实性报道,但其编辑性结论则需要读者自行判断。用户Dave则持中立立场:\"无论这些博客和Substack写得多么详尽,它们终究只是它们本身。做好自己的研究,如果你有信念,就必须过滤掉噪音。我个人认为SemiAnalysis提供的信号多于噪音,但没有人是没有偏见的。\"也有用户将矛头指向更深层的市场结构问题。用户IVCrushLeague评论道:\"如果一位分析师对SK海力士或三星的判断出错到这种程度,他们早就要躲起来了。这也是为什么这类恐慌性信息主要针对美光。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MULL":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"MU":2.1,"MUD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583626764881992,"gmtCreate":1783517101015,"gmtModify":1783517103604,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"终于来了一个正常点的,SemiAnalysis的鬼故事一个接着一个,其实就是收了“咨询费”帮忙砸盘的。发负面报告→股价跌→找企业卖咨询→收了钱之后报告语气就软了,现在和Tema ETF 达成了商业合作。所谓的专业订阅费用基本都是给他们塞牙缝的,真正赚钱的活估计就是小作文。","listText":"终于来了一个正常点的,SemiAnalysis的鬼故事一个接着一个,其实就是收了“咨询费”帮忙砸盘的。发负面报告→股价跌→找企业卖咨询→收了钱之后报告语气就软了,现在和Tema ETF 达成了商业合作。所谓的专业订阅费用基本都是给他们塞牙缝的,真正赚钱的活估计就是小作文。","text":"终于来了一个正常点的,SemiAnalysis的鬼故事一个接着一个,其实就是收了“咨询费”帮忙砸盘的。发负面报告→股价跌→找企业卖咨询→收了钱之后报告语气就软了,现在和Tema ETF 达成了商业合作。所谓的专业订阅费用基本都是给他们塞牙缝的,真正赚钱的活估计就是小作文。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583626764881992","repostId":"2649960560","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649960560","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1783507341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2649960560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-08 18:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649960560","media":"智通财经","summary":"【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<b>【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】</b>7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”评级,并将2026年12月的目标价调高至480,000韩元。摩根大通指出,尽管三星在今年上半年一次性计提了超过15万亿韩元的巨额劳务成本拨备,但在AI基础设施建设引发的存储芯片价格狂飙及韩元贬值的双重利好拉动下,其二季度实际盈利表现击败了此前已被市场调低的预期,展现出极具韧性的周期爆发力。报告强调,经历此前的股价回调后,目前三星电子股价对应的未来12个月滚动市盈率仅为5.2倍。小摩称,三星已成为全球范围内“定价最便宜的优质存储资产”,此前的市场悲观情绪反而为中长线投资者提供了极佳的逢低买入时机。 </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”评级,并将2026年12月的目标价调高至480,000韩元。摩根大通指出,尽管三星在今年上半年一次性计提了超过15万亿韩元的巨额劳务成本拨备,但在AI基础设施建设引发的存储芯片价格狂飙及韩元贬值的双重...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DRAM":"Roundhill Memory ETF","EEMO":"Invesco S&P Emerging Markets Momentum ETF","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","WTAI":"WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund","SSNLF":"三星电子","RAM":"2倍做多DRAM ETF-T-REX","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IEMG":"iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4543":"AI","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4582":"ESG ETF-MSCI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","07747":"南方两倍做多三星电子","DRAL":"2倍做多DRAM ETF-Defiance","EDZ":"新兴市场ETF-Direxion三倍做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PGF":"优先金融股指数ETF-PowerShares"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2649960560","content_text":"【摩根大通重申三星电子增持评级,称股价回调带来逢低买入时机】7月8日消息,摩根大通在最新发布的个股研究报告中,对全球半导体巨头三星电子披露的2026年第二季度强劲初步业绩给予了极高评价,重申其“增持”评级,并将2026年12月的目标价调高至480,000韩元。摩根大通指出,尽管三星在今年上半年一次性计提了超过15万亿韩元的巨额劳务成本拨备,但在AI基础设施建设引发的存储芯片价格狂飙及韩元贬值的双重利好拉动下,其二季度实际盈利表现击败了此前已被市场调低的预期,展现出极具韧性的周期爆发力。报告强调,经历此前的股价回调后,目前三星电子股价对应的未来12个月滚动市盈率仅为5.2倍。小摩称,三星已成为全球范围内“定价最便宜的优质存储资产”,此前的市场悲观情绪反而为中长线投资者提供了极佳的逢低买入时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DRAL":0.6,"07747":0.6,"PGF":1.5,"EDZ":1.5,"SSNLF":1.5,"EEMO":1.5,"RAM":1.5,"DRAM":1.5,"IEMG":1.5,"WTAI":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":571946405016880,"gmtCreate":1780657681073,"gmtModify":1780658211619,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a> ","text":"$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571946405016880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":558142850729248,"gmtCreate":1777297050909,"gmtModify":1777297053712,"author":{"id":"4214746600733160","authorId":"4214746600733160","name":"candywyt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5eb768ce3960a3a934f43931a29031","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4214746600733160","idStr":"4214746600733160"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"同样的味道,之前SNDK也给他出过一个报告,结果今天破1000了<a href=\"\">[笑哭] </a>","listText":"同样的味道,之前SNDK也给他出过一个报告,结果今天破1000了<a href=\"\">[笑哭] </a>","text":"同样的味道,之前SNDK也给他出过一个报告,结果今天破1000了[笑哭] ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558142850729248","repostId":"1116639706","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116639706","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1777296444,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116639706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-27 21:27","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"异动解读 | 香橼做空报告施压,应用光电盘前大跌5.01%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116639706","media":"异动解读","summary":"应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。","content":"<p>应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。</p><p>香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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21:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。</p><p>消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。</p><p>香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAOI":"Applied Optoelectronics Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116639706","content_text":"应用光电今日盘前股价大跌5.01%,引起了市场的广泛关注。消息面上,知名做空机构香橼此前发布的做空报告持续对股价构成压力。报告列出了五大核心理由,包括公司存在估值泡沫、财务脆弱、客户集中风险、技术兑现滞后,以及英伟达下一代平台采用CPO方案可能大幅减少对AAOI核心可插拔光模块的需求。香橼在报告中进一步指出,应用光电的核心业务是可插拔光模块,目前不具备CPO(共封装光学)量产能力,因此被排除在主流CPO生态之外,其长期增长逻辑面临严峻挑战。这份报告引发了投资者对公司未来前景的担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAOI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}