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2025-07-25

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特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”

05-15

**公司

闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约

09-18 23:10

放屁大摩臭名昭著

AI智能体争夺30万亿美元消费市场！大摩：Meta、苹果、亚马逊等有望受益，谷歌面临商业模式考验

08-04

这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了今天深跌反弹这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号只要这样的信号一出现不论真假不去核实股价先大跌后反弹可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹

SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”

07-04

这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了

SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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justify;\">值得注意的是，摩根士丹利此次对北美互联网行业整体前景仍持乐观态度，并将Meta、苹果、亚马逊、eBay和Shopify列为其认为在智能体浪潮中定位较为有利的一批公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Meta Muse成为新变量 每1亿用户或为2028年EPS贡献约1%增量</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次研报尤其关注Meta最新推出的Muse。摩根士丹利认为，Muse是智能体市场的一项重要进展：推出后连续9天位居应用下载榜前五，同时能够利用Facebook、Instagram及Meta其他数据资源提供个性化交互，并已将移动网页浏览和操作能力融入使用场景，可以直接通过浏览器执行部分交易任务。与此同时，Muse具有较高的免费使用额度——每周提供1亿个免费token，摩根士丹利估计，这一额度可能足以支持用户每天进行100次以上查询。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与单纯依靠订阅收费相比，摩根士丹利认为，Muse真正值得关注的商业化机会可能来自用户行为和交易本身。目前Muse可以通过订阅模式收费，但该行预计，Meta最终可能针对由Muse促成的交易收取佣金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利还对这一商业模式进行了量化测算。假设到2028年Muse拥有1亿用户，每名用户每天发起5次查询，其中10%属于可以商业化的查询，同时Meta每次商业查询实现约0.07美元收入，那么Muse一年可为Meta贡献约13亿美元收入和约0.35美元增量每股收益，相当于为2028年EPS增加约1%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而这一模型具有相当大的规模效应。摩根士丹利的敏感性分析显示，如果Muse用户规模以及每名用户产生的商业查询数量进一步提高，其交易相关收入可能达到80亿美元以上；在更积极的情景下，Muse甚至可能为Meta 2028年EPS带来15%以上的增量空间。不过，这一结果高度取决于用户规模、商业查询频率和变现效率等假设，并非该行的基准预测。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>智能体竞争关键不只在模型 分发能力与独家数据成为核心筹码</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，决定横向AI智能体最终竞争格局的两个重要因素，是规模化分发能力和大规模独特数据集。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是Meta、谷歌和苹果被该行认为具备较好基础的原因。苹果和谷歌分别掌握iOS和Android生态，其软件与硬件的深度整合，使两家公司更容易在整个设备生态中部署智能体应用和功能；Meta的差异化优势则来自Facebook和Instagram等平台积累的大量第一方数据，这些数据有助于智能体理解用户偏好并提供更加个性化的服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，技术能力本身并不足以保证最终胜出。摩根士丹利指出，推动智能体普及本质上还涉及消费者行为习惯的改变，因此产品推广、用户教育以及能否清楚展示实际使用价值同样重要。Muse推出时间尚不足10天，但初期用户表现已经释放出一些积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>电商格局或重新洗牌 亚马逊、eBay及Shopify定位相对有利</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在智能体逐步介入购物决策和交易之后，电商平台可能成为最直接受到影响的领域之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，在其覆盖的电商公司中，亚马逊和eBay的智能体时代定位相对较好，而Peloton(PTON.US)、Chewy(CHWY.US)和FIGS(FIGS.US)等公司面临的潜在风险相对更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Shopify则扮演不同角色。摩根士丹利认为，Shopify并不只是一个直接面对消费者的购物平台，其更重要的价值在于为大量分散的商户提供基础设施。因此，当商户需要调整商品信息、交易流程和技术架构，以适应智能体主导的购物环境时，Shopify可能成为帮助这些商家完成转型的重要“基础设施提供者”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之，当消费者越来越多地让AI替自己“找商品、比价格、下订单”时，电商行业竞争的重点可能逐渐从“谁拥有最好的网站和App”，扩展至“谁最容易被AI智能体发现、理解并完成交易”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>旅游平台并非最脆弱 独特实时库存构成重要壁垒</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期市场对于智能体颠覆在线旅游平台(OTA)的担忧明显升温。报告指出，随着相关担忧重新发酵，一些处于“智能体竞争战场”的在线旅游公司股价在此前约两周内累计下跌约6%-12%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但摩根士丹利认为，市场可能低估了Booking Holdings(BKNG.US)、Airbnb(ABNB.US)和Expedia(EXPE.US)手中的一项重要资产，独特、分散、规模庞大且不断变化的实时库存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">酒店房间、民宿、航班等旅游产品不像标准化商品一样容易被AI完全替代。旅游消费通常需要大量图片浏览、目的地探索、行程规划和产品发现，因此消费者并不一定愿意完全跳过OTA平台。摩根士丹利认为，“探索、规划和产品发现”本身可能构成旅游行业的一种竞争壁垒。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，OTA仍需关注两个关键指标：一是直接流量是否被AI智能体分流；二是这些平台能否推出自己的智能体产品，将用户和交易继续留在自身平台之内。这两点可能影响其长期估值水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>网约车面临更直接冲击 AI可能把竞争进一步推向“比价”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比旅游和外卖，摩根士丹利认为，网约车行业面临的智能体颠覆风险更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">原因在于网约车服务更加标准化。对于一名只是希望从办公室前往机场的消费者而言，优步(UBER.US)和Lyft(LYFT.US)之间的选择可能主要取决于价格和等待时间。智能体完全可以同时查询多个平台，然后自动选择价格最低或最快的一项服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较之下，点外卖和订旅游产品通常涉及更多图片浏览、探索和个人偏好，因此消费者主动参与决策的价值更高。摩根士丹利因此认为，越标准化、客单价越小、越依赖价格进行决策的交易，越容易受到横向AI智能体影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，这并不意味着优步、Lyft或DoorDash(DASH.US)会失去价值。摩根士丹利指出，大规模司机、配送员以及本地配送网络本身就是智能体难以自行复制的实体基础设施。即使未来消费者通过Meta或其他AI智能体叫车、点餐，横向智能体仍可能需要接入优步、Lyft和DoorDash的网络才能真正完成服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，真正的问题可能从“消费者是否继续打开优步App”，转变为“当AI成为入口后，优步能从一笔订单中保留多少经济价值”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>谷歌面临更深层考验 智能体佣金模式可能压低传统搜索变现率</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，智能体时代一个尤其值得关注的潜在受影响者是谷歌现有商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着Meta等大型平台不断推出智能体产品，如果这些产品成功吸引大量用户，并从谷歌搜索引擎手中夺走具有商业价值的查询和交易，谷歌可能不得不主动调整目前高度成熟的搜索广告变现体系。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中最大的差异在于“抽成率”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利估计，目前传统搜索广告每笔交易对应的“有效抽成率”——即广告支出占商品交易总额(GMV)的比例——大约是今年早期部分智能体交易佣金模式的5至10倍。这意味着，如果消费者越来越多地直接通过AI智能体完成购买，而不是点击传统搜索广告进入商家网站，谷歌可能面临单笔交易变现水平下降的风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，该行认为，谷歌必须继续加快下一代智能体产品落地，利用其庞大的搜索用户基础和数据优势守住智能体交易漏斗的上游位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但谷歌并非没有缓冲空间。目前零售商超过80%的线上流量仍属于免费或直接流量。随着AI智能体普及，如果部分原本免费的直接流量转化为需要支付佣金的智能体流量，即使单笔交易抽成率下降，新增的付费交易量也可能部分抵消影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利测算，如果约5个百分点的免费/直接流量转向付费渠道，可以抵消有效抽成率约14个百分点的下降；但如果智能体最终的抽成率只有5%，谷歌需要约38个百分点的流量从免费渠道转向付费渠道才能完全实现收支平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也意味着，智能体时代潜在的利益冲突将越来越明显，谷歌等大型平台希望把更多原本免费的直接流量转化为可收费的智能体交易，而零售商则需要保护利润率更高的直接流量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI智能体争夺30万亿美元消费市场！大摩：Meta、苹果、亚马逊等有望受益，谷歌面临商业模式考验</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI智能体争夺30万亿美元消费市场！大摩：Meta、苹果、亚马逊等有望受益，谷歌面临商业模式考验\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-18 22:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>摩根士丹利发布最新研报称，随着Meta Platforms(META.US)推出Muse智能体，以及Instinct等AI智能体迅速获得市场关注，“智能体AI”正在从单纯的信息问答工具进一步向能够替用户搜索、比较、决策乃至完成交易的“行动型助手”演变。摩根士丹利估计，未来可通过智能体产品实现数字化的全球消费者支出规模约达<strong>30万亿美元</strong>，覆盖电商、旅游、广告、外卖、网约车等多个领域，其潜在市场规模与生成式AI在企业知识工作领域的市场机会大致相当。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，这场智能体浪潮不仅可能创造新的流量入口和交易渠道，也可能重新分配互联网行业长期形成的利润池。拥有庞大用户分发渠道、独特数据以及软硬件生态的平台处于相对有利位置，其中Meta、苹果(AAPL.US)和谷歌(GOOGL.US)具备较明显的基础优势；在下游企业中，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、eBay(EBAY.US)和Shopify(SHOP.US)等公司的智能体时代定位相对突出。与此同时，网约车等标准化程度较高、消费者更看重价格的行业面临的潜在冲击更值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，摩根士丹利此次对北美互联网行业整体前景仍持乐观态度，并将Meta、苹果、亚马逊、eBay和Shopify列为其认为在智能体浪潮中定位较为有利的一批公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Meta Muse成为新变量 每1亿用户或为2028年EPS贡献约1%增量</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次研报尤其关注Meta最新推出的Muse。摩根士丹利认为，Muse是智能体市场的一项重要进展：推出后连续9天位居应用下载榜前五，同时能够利用Facebook、Instagram及Meta其他数据资源提供个性化交互，并已将移动网页浏览和操作能力融入使用场景，可以直接通过浏览器执行部分交易任务。与此同时，Muse具有较高的免费使用额度——每周提供1亿个免费token，摩根士丹利估计，这一额度可能足以支持用户每天进行100次以上查询。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与单纯依靠订阅收费相比，摩根士丹利认为，Muse真正值得关注的商业化机会可能来自用户行为和交易本身。目前Muse可以通过订阅模式收费，但该行预计，Meta最终可能针对由Muse促成的交易收取佣金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利还对这一商业模式进行了量化测算。假设到2028年Muse拥有1亿用户，每名用户每天发起5次查询，其中10%属于可以商业化的查询，同时Meta每次商业查询实现约0.07美元收入，那么Muse一年可为Meta贡献约13亿美元收入和约0.35美元增量每股收益，相当于为2028年EPS增加约1%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而这一模型具有相当大的规模效应。摩根士丹利的敏感性分析显示，如果Muse用户规模以及每名用户产生的商业查询数量进一步提高，其交易相关收入可能达到80亿美元以上；在更积极的情景下，Muse甚至可能为Meta 2028年EPS带来15%以上的增量空间。不过，这一结果高度取决于用户规模、商业查询频率和变现效率等假设，并非该行的基准预测。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>智能体竞争关键不只在模型 分发能力与独家数据成为核心筹码</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，决定横向AI智能体最终竞争格局的两个重要因素，是规模化分发能力和大规模独特数据集。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是Meta、谷歌和苹果被该行认为具备较好基础的原因。苹果和谷歌分别掌握iOS和Android生态，其软件与硬件的深度整合，使两家公司更容易在整个设备生态中部署智能体应用和功能；Meta的差异化优势则来自Facebook和Instagram等平台积累的大量第一方数据，这些数据有助于智能体理解用户偏好并提供更加个性化的服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，技术能力本身并不足以保证最终胜出。摩根士丹利指出，推动智能体普及本质上还涉及消费者行为习惯的改变，因此产品推广、用户教育以及能否清楚展示实际使用价值同样重要。Muse推出时间尚不足10天，但初期用户表现已经释放出一些积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>电商格局或重新洗牌 亚马逊、eBay及Shopify定位相对有利</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在智能体逐步介入购物决策和交易之后，电商平台可能成为最直接受到影响的领域之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，在其覆盖的电商公司中，亚马逊和eBay的智能体时代定位相对较好，而Peloton(PTON.US)、Chewy(CHWY.US)和FIGS(FIGS.US)等公司面临的潜在风险相对更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Shopify则扮演不同角色。摩根士丹利认为，Shopify并不只是一个直接面对消费者的购物平台，其更重要的价值在于为大量分散的商户提供基础设施。因此，当商户需要调整商品信息、交易流程和技术架构，以适应智能体主导的购物环境时，Shopify可能成为帮助这些商家完成转型的重要“基础设施提供者”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之，当消费者越来越多地让AI替自己“找商品、比价格、下订单”时，电商行业竞争的重点可能逐渐从“谁拥有最好的网站和App”，扩展至“谁最容易被AI智能体发现、理解并完成交易”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>旅游平台并非最脆弱 独特实时库存构成重要壁垒</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期市场对于智能体颠覆在线旅游平台(OTA)的担忧明显升温。报告指出，随着相关担忧重新发酵，一些处于“智能体竞争战场”的在线旅游公司股价在此前约两周内累计下跌约6%-12%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但摩根士丹利认为，市场可能低估了Booking Holdings(BKNG.US)、Airbnb(ABNB.US)和Expedia(EXPE.US)手中的一项重要资产，独特、分散、规模庞大且不断变化的实时库存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">酒店房间、民宿、航班等旅游产品不像标准化商品一样容易被AI完全替代。旅游消费通常需要大量图片浏览、目的地探索、行程规划和产品发现，因此消费者并不一定愿意完全跳过OTA平台。摩根士丹利认为，“探索、规划和产品发现”本身可能构成旅游行业的一种竞争壁垒。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，OTA仍需关注两个关键指标：一是直接流量是否被AI智能体分流；二是这些平台能否推出自己的智能体产品，将用户和交易继续留在自身平台之内。这两点可能影响其长期估值水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>网约车面临更直接冲击 AI可能把竞争进一步推向“比价”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比旅游和外卖，摩根士丹利认为，网约车行业面临的智能体颠覆风险更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">原因在于网约车服务更加标准化。对于一名只是希望从办公室前往机场的消费者而言，优步(UBER.US)和Lyft(LYFT.US)之间的选择可能主要取决于价格和等待时间。智能体完全可以同时查询多个平台，然后自动选择价格最低或最快的一项服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较之下，点外卖和订旅游产品通常涉及更多图片浏览、探索和个人偏好，因此消费者主动参与决策的价值更高。摩根士丹利因此认为，越标准化、客单价越小、越依赖价格进行决策的交易，越容易受到横向AI智能体影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，这并不意味着优步、Lyft或DoorDash(DASH.US)会失去价值。摩根士丹利指出，大规模司机、配送员以及本地配送网络本身就是智能体难以自行复制的实体基础设施。即使未来消费者通过Meta或其他AI智能体叫车、点餐，横向智能体仍可能需要接入优步、Lyft和DoorDash的网络才能真正完成服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，真正的问题可能从“消费者是否继续打开优步App”，转变为“当AI成为入口后，优步能从一笔订单中保留多少经济价值”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>谷歌面临更深层考验 智能体佣金模式可能压低传统搜索变现率</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，智能体时代一个尤其值得关注的潜在受影响者是谷歌现有商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着Meta等大型平台不断推出智能体产品，如果这些产品成功吸引大量用户，并从谷歌搜索引擎手中夺走具有商业价值的查询和交易，谷歌可能不得不主动调整目前高度成熟的搜索广告变现体系。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中最大的差异在于“抽成率”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利估计，目前传统搜索广告每笔交易对应的“有效抽成率”——即广告支出占商品交易总额(GMV)的比例——大约是今年早期部分智能体交易佣金模式的5至10倍。这意味着，如果消费者越来越多地直接通过AI智能体完成购买，而不是点击传统搜索广告进入商家网站，谷歌可能面临单笔交易变现水平下降的风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，该行认为，谷歌必须继续加快下一代智能体产品落地，利用其庞大的搜索用户基础和数据优势守住智能体交易漏斗的上游位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但谷歌并非没有缓冲空间。目前零售商超过80%的线上流量仍属于免费或直接流量。随着AI智能体普及，如果部分原本免费的直接流量转化为需要支付佣金的智能体流量，即使单笔交易抽成率下降，新增的付费交易量也可能部分抵消影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利测算，如果约5个百分点的免费/直接流量转向付费渠道，可以抵消有效抽成率约14个百分点的下降；但如果智能体最终的抽成率只有5%，谷歌需要约38个百分点的流量从免费渠道转向付费渠道才能完全实现收支平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也意味着，智能体时代潜在的利益冲突将越来越明显，谷歌等大型平台希望把更多原本免费的直接流量转化为可收费的智能体交易，而零售商则需要保护利润率更高的直接流量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde2e4fc86b629e1a7a7708ea53eb694","relate_stocks":{"AMZU":"2倍做多AMZN ETF-Direxion","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","AAPD":"1倍做空AAPL ETF-Direxion","METQ":"Tradr 2X Short META Daily ETF","AAPL":"苹果","AMZW":"Roundhill AMZN WeeklyPay™ ETF","FBL":"2倍做多META ETF-GraniteShares","AAPE":"Leverage Shares 2X Long AAPL Daily ETF","METU":"2倍做多META ETF-Direxion","IOSX":"Corgi AAPL 2x Daily 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Platforms(META.US)推出Muse智能体，以及Instinct等AI智能体迅速获得市场关注，“智能体AI”正在从单纯的信息问答工具进一步向能够替用户搜索、比较、决策乃至完成交易的“行动型助手”演变。摩根士丹利估计，未来可通过智能体产品实现数字化的全球消费者支出规模约达30万亿美元，覆盖电商、旅游、广告、外卖、网约车等多个领域，其潜在市场规模与生成式AI在企业知识工作领域的市场机会大致相当。摩根士丹利认为，这场智能体浪潮不仅可能创造新的流量入口和交易渠道，也可能重新分配互联网行业长期形成的利润池。拥有庞大用户分发渠道、独特数据以及软硬件生态的平台处于相对有利位置，其中Meta、苹果(AAPL.US)和谷歌(GOOGL.US)具备较明显的基础优势；在下游企业中，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、eBay(EBAY.US)和Shopify(SHOP.US)等公司的智能体时代定位相对突出。与此同时，网约车等标准化程度较高、消费者更看重价格的行业面临的潜在冲击更值得关注。值得注意的是，摩根士丹利此次对北美互联网行业整体前景仍持乐观态度，并将Meta、苹果、亚马逊、eBay和Shopify列为其认为在智能体浪潮中定位较为有利的一批公司。Meta Muse成为新变量 每1亿用户或为2028年EPS贡献约1%增量此次研报尤其关注Meta最新推出的Muse。摩根士丹利认为，Muse是智能体市场的一项重要进展：推出后连续9天位居应用下载榜前五，同时能够利用Facebook、Instagram及Meta其他数据资源提供个性化交互，并已将移动网页浏览和操作能力融入使用场景，可以直接通过浏览器执行部分交易任务。与此同时，Muse具有较高的免费使用额度——每周提供1亿个免费token，摩根士丹利估计，这一额度可能足以支持用户每天进行100次以上查询。与单纯依靠订阅收费相比，摩根士丹利认为，Muse真正值得关注的商业化机会可能来自用户行为和交易本身。目前Muse可以通过订阅模式收费，但该行预计，Meta最终可能针对由Muse促成的交易收取佣金。摩根士丹利还对这一商业模式进行了量化测算。假设到2028年Muse拥有1亿用户，每名用户每天发起5次查询，其中10%属于可以商业化的查询，同时Meta每次商业查询实现约0.07美元收入，那么Muse一年可为Meta贡献约13亿美元收入和约0.35美元增量每股收益，相当于为2028年EPS增加约1%。而这一模型具有相当大的规模效应。摩根士丹利的敏感性分析显示，如果Muse用户规模以及每名用户产生的商业查询数量进一步提高，其交易相关收入可能达到80亿美元以上；在更积极的情景下，Muse甚至可能为Meta 2028年EPS带来15%以上的增量空间。不过，这一结果高度取决于用户规模、商业查询频率和变现效率等假设，并非该行的基准预测。智能体竞争关键不只在模型 分发能力与独家数据成为核心筹码摩根士丹利认为，决定横向AI智能体最终竞争格局的两个重要因素，是规模化分发能力和大规模独特数据集。这也是Meta、谷歌和苹果被该行认为具备较好基础的原因。苹果和谷歌分别掌握iOS和Android生态，其软件与硬件的深度整合，使两家公司更容易在整个设备生态中部署智能体应用和功能；Meta的差异化优势则来自Facebook和Instagram等平台积累的大量第一方数据，这些数据有助于智能体理解用户偏好并提供更加个性化的服务。不过，技术能力本身并不足以保证最终胜出。摩根士丹利指出，推动智能体普及本质上还涉及消费者行为习惯的改变，因此产品推广、用户教育以及能否清楚展示实际使用价值同样重要。Muse推出时间尚不足10天，但初期用户表现已经释放出一些积极信号。电商格局或重新洗牌 亚马逊、eBay及Shopify定位相对有利在智能体逐步介入购物决策和交易之后，电商平台可能成为最直接受到影响的领域之一。摩根士丹利认为，在其覆盖的电商公司中，亚马逊和eBay的智能体时代定位相对较好，而Peloton(PTON.US)、Chewy(CHWY.US)和FIGS(FIGS.US)等公司面临的潜在风险相对更高。Shopify则扮演不同角色。摩根士丹利认为，Shopify并不只是一个直接面对消费者的购物平台，其更重要的价值在于为大量分散的商户提供基础设施。因此，当商户需要调整商品信息、交易流程和技术架构，以适应智能体主导的购物环境时，Shopify可能成为帮助这些商家完成转型的重要“基础设施提供者”。换言之，当消费者越来越多地让AI替自己“找商品、比价格、下订单”时，电商行业竞争的重点可能逐渐从“谁拥有最好的网站和App”，扩展至“谁最容易被AI智能体发现、理解并完成交易”。旅游平台并非最脆弱 独特实时库存构成重要壁垒近期市场对于智能体颠覆在线旅游平台(OTA)的担忧明显升温。报告指出，随着相关担忧重新发酵，一些处于“智能体竞争战场”的在线旅游公司股价在此前约两周内累计下跌约6%-12%。但摩根士丹利认为，市场可能低估了Booking Holdings(BKNG.US)、Airbnb(ABNB.US)和Expedia(EXPE.US)手中的一项重要资产，独特、分散、规模庞大且不断变化的实时库存。酒店房间、民宿、航班等旅游产品不像标准化商品一样容易被AI完全替代。旅游消费通常需要大量图片浏览、目的地探索、行程规划和产品发现，因此消费者并不一定愿意完全跳过OTA平台。摩根士丹利认为，“探索、规划和产品发现”本身可能构成旅游行业的一种竞争壁垒。不过，OTA仍需关注两个关键指标：一是直接流量是否被AI智能体分流；二是这些平台能否推出自己的智能体产品，将用户和交易继续留在自身平台之内。这两点可能影响其长期估值水平。网约车面临更直接冲击 AI可能把竞争进一步推向“比价”相比旅游和外卖，摩根士丹利认为，网约车行业面临的智能体颠覆风险更高。原因在于网约车服务更加标准化。对于一名只是希望从办公室前往机场的消费者而言，优步(UBER.US)和Lyft(LYFT.US)之间的选择可能主要取决于价格和等待时间。智能体完全可以同时查询多个平台，然后自动选择价格最低或最快的一项服务。相较之下，点外卖和订旅游产品通常涉及更多图片浏览、探索和个人偏好，因此消费者主动参与决策的价值更高。摩根士丹利因此认为，越标准化、客单价越小、越依赖价格进行决策的交易，越容易受到横向AI智能体影响。不过，这并不意味着优步、Lyft或DoorDash(DASH.US)会失去价值。摩根士丹利指出，大规模司机、配送员以及本地配送网络本身就是智能体难以自行复制的实体基础设施。即使未来消费者通过Meta或其他AI智能体叫车、点餐，横向智能体仍可能需要接入优步、Lyft和DoorDash的网络才能真正完成服务。因此，真正的问题可能从“消费者是否继续打开优步App”，转变为“当AI成为入口后，优步能从一笔订单中保留多少经济价值”。谷歌面临更深层考验 智能体佣金模式可能压低传统搜索变现率摩根士丹利认为，智能体时代一个尤其值得关注的潜在受影响者是谷歌现有商业模式。随着Meta等大型平台不断推出智能体产品，如果这些产品成功吸引大量用户，并从谷歌搜索引擎手中夺走具有商业价值的查询和交易，谷歌可能不得不主动调整目前高度成熟的搜索广告变现体系。其中最大的差异在于“抽成率”。摩根士丹利估计，目前传统搜索广告每笔交易对应的“有效抽成率”——即广告支出占商品交易总额(GMV)的比例——大约是今年早期部分智能体交易佣金模式的5至10倍。这意味着，如果消费者越来越多地直接通过AI智能体完成购买，而不是点击传统搜索广告进入商家网站，谷歌可能面临单笔交易变现水平下降的风险。因此，该行认为，谷歌必须继续加快下一代智能体产品落地，利用其庞大的搜索用户基础和数据优势守住智能体交易漏斗的上游位置。但谷歌并非没有缓冲空间。目前零售商超过80%的线上流量仍属于免费或直接流量。随着AI智能体普及，如果部分原本免费的直接流量转化为需要支付佣金的智能体流量，即使单笔交易抽成率下降，新增的付费交易量也可能部分抵消影响。摩根士丹利测算，如果约5个百分点的免费/直接流量转向付费渠道，可以抵消有效抽成率约14个百分点的下降；但如果智能体最终的抽成率只有5%，谷歌需要约38个百分点的流量从免费渠道转向付费渠道才能完全实现收支平衡。这也意味着，智能体时代潜在的利益冲突将越来越明显，谷歌等大型平台希望把更多原本免费的直接流量转化为可收费的智能体交易，而零售商则需要保护利润率更高的直接流量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPB":0.6,"FBYY":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"FBL":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"METQ":0.6,"METG":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"AMZN":2,"AMZO":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AMAA":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AMZY":0.6,"AMZD":0.6,"AMZG":0.6,"AMZP":0.6,"METU":0.6,"IOSX":0.6,"FBX":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"AMZU":0.6,"META":2,"METD":0.6,"AAPL":2,"AAPE":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AZYY":0.6,"METW":0.6,"AMZW":0.6,"FBY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":592895919739240,"gmtCreate":1785777557738,"gmtModify":1785777559877,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了&nbsp; 今天深跌反弹&nbsp; 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号&nbsp; 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实&nbsp; 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","listText":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了&nbsp; 今天深跌反弹&nbsp; 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号&nbsp; 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实&nbsp; 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","text":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/592895919739240","repostId":"1191337680","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191337680","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785747178,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191337680?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-03 16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191337680","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的Rubin Ultra预览版规格低于市场此前预期。SemiAnalysis表示，MI455X取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-03 16:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"MIC":"2倍做多MU ETF-Corgi","AMDW":"Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","AMDU":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income AMD ETF","AMDY":"AMD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AMYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST AMD ETF","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA 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Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约640万美元。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近40%降至约28%，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由4%提升至12%。换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到60.54万亿韩元，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约0.7万亿韩元，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到7300亿美元，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUU":0.6,"SMCL":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"SMCZ":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"AMD":2,"AVGX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SMCI":2,"AMDY":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"AVGO":2,"AVL":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"SMYY":0.6,"07388":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"HPE":2,"DELL":2,"MU":2,"DLLL":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVYY":0.6,"SMCX":0.6,"SMCY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SMCC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582055511184664,"gmtCreate":1783134898947,"gmtModify":1783137554962,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","listText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","text":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582055511184664","repostId":"2648520346","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2648520346","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782952915,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2648520346?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-02 08:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648520346","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SemiAnalysis透露，谷歌下一代TPU（Humufish）将弃用台积电CoWoS，改用英特尔EMIB-T封装。EMIB-T通过硅通孔实现垂直供电，不仅去除了昂贵的中介层、大幅降低成本并提高硅片利用率，还能更好地支持下一代HBM。然而，EMIB-T作为新技术，其大规模量产的良率仍是英特尔面临的最大考验。","content":"<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-02 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776021","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2648520346","content_text":"7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，谷歌下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃台积电的CoWoS封装，转而采用英特尔的EMIB-T技术。\n目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。谷歌作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，\n\n“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”\n\n两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。\n\n摆脱光罩限制与降低成本\n台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。\nSemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”\n除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。\n更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。\n相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。\n\n \n \n垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM\nHumufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。\nSemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”\n这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。\n\n架构适配性与量产大考\n针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。\n“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”\nNutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。\n\n量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考\n尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”\n\nSemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”\n只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.88,"TSMZ":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"03145":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"04335":1.92,"STSM":0.6,"GOOGL":1.95,"LINT":0.6,"INTC":1.92,"GOU":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"INTW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564487666640392,"gmtCreate":1778848761062,"gmtModify":1778850246986,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"**公司","listText":"**公司","text":"**公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564487666640392","repostId":"2635728701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2635728701","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778832487,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2635728701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-15 16:08","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2635728701","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东 、高通等。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。</p><p>闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。</p><p>此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。</p><p>如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。</p><p>此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。</p><p>据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>(MRK.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司‌少于5%流通股‌的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求‌。</p><p>SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。</p><p>周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。</p><p>更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app</p><p>更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)</p> </body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-15 16:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNXX":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDK":"闪迪","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0963586101.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AT\" ACC","LU0054578231.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SMALLCAP \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2635728701","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东(MRK.US)、高通(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司‌少于5%流通股‌的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求‌。SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNXX":0.6,"SNDK":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460556196311360,"gmtCreate":1753451481076,"gmtModify":1753452543723,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"懂个屁","listText":"懂个屁","text":"懂个屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460556196311360","repostId":"2554175982","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2554175982","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1753424940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2554175982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-25 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2554175982","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-25 14:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4521":"英国银行股","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","HSBC":"汇丰","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3751869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2554175982","content_text":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：1. 技术可靠性存疑：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。2. 消费者行为转变困难：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。3. 盈利能力证明缺失：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：Robotaxi进展缓慢：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。Optimus人形机器人重新设计：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"HSBC":1,"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":460556196311360,"gmtCreate":1753451481076,"gmtModify":1753452543723,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"懂个屁","listText":"懂个屁","text":"懂个屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460556196311360","repostId":"2554175982","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2554175982","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1753424940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2554175982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-25 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2554175982","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-25 14:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA 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(USD) INC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","HSBC":"汇丰","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3751869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2554175982","content_text":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：1. 技术可靠性存疑：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。2. 消费者行为转变困难：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。3. 盈利能力证明缺失：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：Robotaxi进展缓慢：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。Optimus人形机器人重新设计：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"HSBC":1,"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564487666640392,"gmtCreate":1778848761062,"gmtModify":1778850246986,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"**公司","listText":"**公司","text":"**公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564487666640392","repostId":"2635728701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2635728701","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778832487,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2635728701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-15 16:08","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2635728701","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东 、高通等。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。</p><p>闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。</p><p>此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。</p><p>如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。</p><p>此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。</p><p>据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>(MRK.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司‌少于5%流通股‌的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求‌。</p><p>SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。</p><p>周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。</p><p>更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app</p><p>更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)</p> </body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-15 16:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNXX":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDK":"闪迪","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0963586101.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AT\" ACC","LU0054578231.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SMALLCAP \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2635728701","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东(MRK.US)、高通(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司‌少于5%流通股‌的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求‌。SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNXX":0.6,"SNDK":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609147123172088,"gmtCreate":1789744225502,"gmtModify":1789745282396,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"放屁 大摩臭名昭著","listText":"放屁 大摩臭名昭著","text":"放屁 大摩臭名昭著","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609147123172088","repostId":"1186871205","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186871205","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1789742815,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186871205?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-18 22:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI智能体争夺30万亿美元消费市场！大摩：Meta、苹果、亚马逊等有望受益，谷歌面临商业模式考验","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186871205","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"摩根士丹利估计，未来可通过智能体产品实现数字化的全球消费者支出规模约达30万亿美元，覆盖电商、旅游、广告、外卖、网约车等多个领域，其潜在市场规模与生成式AI在企业知识工作领域的市场机会大致相当。值得注意的是，摩根士丹利此次对北美互联网行业整体前景仍持乐观态度，并将Meta、苹果、亚马逊、eBay和Shopify列为其认为在智能体浪潮中定位较为有利的一批公司。这也是Meta、谷歌和苹果被该行认为具备较好基础的原因。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>摩根士丹利发布最新研报称，随着Meta Platforms(META.US)推出Muse智能体，以及Instinct等AI智能体迅速获得市场关注，“智能体AI”正在从单纯的信息问答工具进一步向能够替用户搜索、比较、决策乃至完成交易的“行动型助手”演变。摩根士丹利估计，未来可通过智能体产品实现数字化的全球消费者支出规模约达<strong>30万亿美元</strong>，覆盖电商、旅游、广告、外卖、网约车等多个领域，其潜在市场规模与生成式AI在企业知识工作领域的市场机会大致相当。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，这场智能体浪潮不仅可能创造新的流量入口和交易渠道，也可能重新分配互联网行业长期形成的利润池。拥有庞大用户分发渠道、独特数据以及软硬件生态的平台处于相对有利位置，其中Meta、苹果(AAPL.US)和谷歌(GOOGL.US)具备较明显的基础优势；在下游企业中，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、eBay(EBAY.US)和Shopify(SHOP.US)等公司的智能体时代定位相对突出。与此同时，网约车等标准化程度较高、消费者更看重价格的行业面临的潜在冲击更值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，摩根士丹利此次对北美互联网行业整体前景仍持乐观态度，并将Meta、苹果、亚马逊、eBay和Shopify列为其认为在智能体浪潮中定位较为有利的一批公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Meta Muse成为新变量 每1亿用户或为2028年EPS贡献约1%增量</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次研报尤其关注Meta最新推出的Muse。摩根士丹利认为，Muse是智能体市场的一项重要进展：推出后连续9天位居应用下载榜前五，同时能够利用Facebook、Instagram及Meta其他数据资源提供个性化交互，并已将移动网页浏览和操作能力融入使用场景，可以直接通过浏览器执行部分交易任务。与此同时，Muse具有较高的免费使用额度——每周提供1亿个免费token，摩根士丹利估计，这一额度可能足以支持用户每天进行100次以上查询。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与单纯依靠订阅收费相比，摩根士丹利认为，Muse真正值得关注的商业化机会可能来自用户行为和交易本身。目前Muse可以通过订阅模式收费，但该行预计，Meta最终可能针对由Muse促成的交易收取佣金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利还对这一商业模式进行了量化测算。假设到2028年Muse拥有1亿用户，每名用户每天发起5次查询，其中10%属于可以商业化的查询，同时Meta每次商业查询实现约0.07美元收入，那么Muse一年可为Meta贡献约13亿美元收入和约0.35美元增量每股收益，相当于为2028年EPS增加约1%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而这一模型具有相当大的规模效应。摩根士丹利的敏感性分析显示，如果Muse用户规模以及每名用户产生的商业查询数量进一步提高，其交易相关收入可能达到80亿美元以上；在更积极的情景下，Muse甚至可能为Meta 2028年EPS带来15%以上的增量空间。不过，这一结果高度取决于用户规模、商业查询频率和变现效率等假设，并非该行的基准预测。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>智能体竞争关键不只在模型 分发能力与独家数据成为核心筹码</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，决定横向AI智能体最终竞争格局的两个重要因素，是规模化分发能力和大规模独特数据集。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是Meta、谷歌和苹果被该行认为具备较好基础的原因。苹果和谷歌分别掌握iOS和Android生态，其软件与硬件的深度整合，使两家公司更容易在整个设备生态中部署智能体应用和功能；Meta的差异化优势则来自Facebook和Instagram等平台积累的大量第一方数据，这些数据有助于智能体理解用户偏好并提供更加个性化的服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，技术能力本身并不足以保证最终胜出。摩根士丹利指出，推动智能体普及本质上还涉及消费者行为习惯的改变，因此产品推广、用户教育以及能否清楚展示实际使用价值同样重要。Muse推出时间尚不足10天，但初期用户表现已经释放出一些积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>电商格局或重新洗牌 亚马逊、eBay及Shopify定位相对有利</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在智能体逐步介入购物决策和交易之后，电商平台可能成为最直接受到影响的领域之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，在其覆盖的电商公司中，亚马逊和eBay的智能体时代定位相对较好，而Peloton(PTON.US)、Chewy(CHWY.US)和FIGS(FIGS.US)等公司面临的潜在风险相对更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Shopify则扮演不同角色。摩根士丹利认为，Shopify并不只是一个直接面对消费者的购物平台，其更重要的价值在于为大量分散的商户提供基础设施。因此，当商户需要调整商品信息、交易流程和技术架构，以适应智能体主导的购物环境时，Shopify可能成为帮助这些商家完成转型的重要“基础设施提供者”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之，当消费者越来越多地让AI替自己“找商品、比价格、下订单”时，电商行业竞争的重点可能逐渐从“谁拥有最好的网站和App”，扩展至“谁最容易被AI智能体发现、理解并完成交易”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>旅游平台并非最脆弱 独特实时库存构成重要壁垒</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期市场对于智能体颠覆在线旅游平台(OTA)的担忧明显升温。报告指出，随着相关担忧重新发酵，一些处于“智能体竞争战场”的在线旅游公司股价在此前约两周内累计下跌约6%-12%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但摩根士丹利认为，市场可能低估了Booking Holdings(BKNG.US)、Airbnb(ABNB.US)和Expedia(EXPE.US)手中的一项重要资产，独特、分散、规模庞大且不断变化的实时库存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">酒店房间、民宿、航班等旅游产品不像标准化商品一样容易被AI完全替代。旅游消费通常需要大量图片浏览、目的地探索、行程规划和产品发现，因此消费者并不一定愿意完全跳过OTA平台。摩根士丹利认为，“探索、规划和产品发现”本身可能构成旅游行业的一种竞争壁垒。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，OTA仍需关注两个关键指标：一是直接流量是否被AI智能体分流；二是这些平台能否推出自己的智能体产品，将用户和交易继续留在自身平台之内。这两点可能影响其长期估值水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>网约车面临更直接冲击 AI可能把竞争进一步推向“比价”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比旅游和外卖，摩根士丹利认为，网约车行业面临的智能体颠覆风险更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">原因在于网约车服务更加标准化。对于一名只是希望从办公室前往机场的消费者而言，优步(UBER.US)和Lyft(LYFT.US)之间的选择可能主要取决于价格和等待时间。智能体完全可以同时查询多个平台，然后自动选择价格最低或最快的一项服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较之下，点外卖和订旅游产品通常涉及更多图片浏览、探索和个人偏好，因此消费者主动参与决策的价值更高。摩根士丹利因此认为，越标准化、客单价越小、越依赖价格进行决策的交易，越容易受到横向AI智能体影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，这并不意味着优步、Lyft或DoorDash(DASH.US)会失去价值。摩根士丹利指出，大规模司机、配送员以及本地配送网络本身就是智能体难以自行复制的实体基础设施。即使未来消费者通过Meta或其他AI智能体叫车、点餐，横向智能体仍可能需要接入优步、Lyft和DoorDash的网络才能真正完成服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，真正的问题可能从“消费者是否继续打开优步App”，转变为“当AI成为入口后，优步能从一笔订单中保留多少经济价值”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>谷歌面临更深层考验 智能体佣金模式可能压低传统搜索变现率</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，智能体时代一个尤其值得关注的潜在受影响者是谷歌现有商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着Meta等大型平台不断推出智能体产品，如果这些产品成功吸引大量用户，并从谷歌搜索引擎手中夺走具有商业价值的查询和交易，谷歌可能不得不主动调整目前高度成熟的搜索广告变现体系。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中最大的差异在于“抽成率”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利估计，目前传统搜索广告每笔交易对应的“有效抽成率”——即广告支出占商品交易总额(GMV)的比例——大约是今年早期部分智能体交易佣金模式的5至10倍。这意味着，如果消费者越来越多地直接通过AI智能体完成购买，而不是点击传统搜索广告进入商家网站，谷歌可能面临单笔交易变现水平下降的风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，该行认为，谷歌必须继续加快下一代智能体产品落地，利用其庞大的搜索用户基础和数据优势守住智能体交易漏斗的上游位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但谷歌并非没有缓冲空间。目前零售商超过80%的线上流量仍属于免费或直接流量。随着AI智能体普及，如果部分原本免费的直接流量转化为需要支付佣金的智能体流量，即使单笔交易抽成率下降，新增的付费交易量也可能部分抵消影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利测算，如果约5个百分点的免费/直接流量转向付费渠道，可以抵消有效抽成率约14个百分点的下降；但如果智能体最终的抽成率只有5%，谷歌需要约38个百分点的流量从免费渠道转向付费渠道才能完全实现收支平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也意味着，智能体时代潜在的利益冲突将越来越明显，谷歌等大型平台希望把更多原本免费的直接流量转化为可收费的智能体交易，而零售商则需要保护利润率更高的直接流量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI智能体争夺30万亿美元消费市场！大摩：Meta、苹果、亚马逊等有望受益，谷歌面临商业模式考验</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI智能体争夺30万亿美元消费市场！大摩：Meta、苹果、亚马逊等有望受益，谷歌面临商业模式考验\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-18 22:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>摩根士丹利发布最新研报称，随着Meta Platforms(META.US)推出Muse智能体，以及Instinct等AI智能体迅速获得市场关注，“智能体AI”正在从单纯的信息问答工具进一步向能够替用户搜索、比较、决策乃至完成交易的“行动型助手”演变。摩根士丹利估计，未来可通过智能体产品实现数字化的全球消费者支出规模约达<strong>30万亿美元</strong>，覆盖电商、旅游、广告、外卖、网约车等多个领域，其潜在市场规模与生成式AI在企业知识工作领域的市场机会大致相当。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，这场智能体浪潮不仅可能创造新的流量入口和交易渠道，也可能重新分配互联网行业长期形成的利润池。拥有庞大用户分发渠道、独特数据以及软硬件生态的平台处于相对有利位置，其中Meta、苹果(AAPL.US)和谷歌(GOOGL.US)具备较明显的基础优势；在下游企业中，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、eBay(EBAY.US)和Shopify(SHOP.US)等公司的智能体时代定位相对突出。与此同时，网约车等标准化程度较高、消费者更看重价格的行业面临的潜在冲击更值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，摩根士丹利此次对北美互联网行业整体前景仍持乐观态度，并将Meta、苹果、亚马逊、eBay和Shopify列为其认为在智能体浪潮中定位较为有利的一批公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Meta Muse成为新变量 每1亿用户或为2028年EPS贡献约1%增量</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次研报尤其关注Meta最新推出的Muse。摩根士丹利认为，Muse是智能体市场的一项重要进展：推出后连续9天位居应用下载榜前五，同时能够利用Facebook、Instagram及Meta其他数据资源提供个性化交互，并已将移动网页浏览和操作能力融入使用场景，可以直接通过浏览器执行部分交易任务。与此同时，Muse具有较高的免费使用额度——每周提供1亿个免费token，摩根士丹利估计，这一额度可能足以支持用户每天进行100次以上查询。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与单纯依靠订阅收费相比，摩根士丹利认为，Muse真正值得关注的商业化机会可能来自用户行为和交易本身。目前Muse可以通过订阅模式收费，但该行预计，Meta最终可能针对由Muse促成的交易收取佣金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利还对这一商业模式进行了量化测算。假设到2028年Muse拥有1亿用户，每名用户每天发起5次查询，其中10%属于可以商业化的查询，同时Meta每次商业查询实现约0.07美元收入，那么Muse一年可为Meta贡献约13亿美元收入和约0.35美元增量每股收益，相当于为2028年EPS增加约1%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而这一模型具有相当大的规模效应。摩根士丹利的敏感性分析显示，如果Muse用户规模以及每名用户产生的商业查询数量进一步提高，其交易相关收入可能达到80亿美元以上；在更积极的情景下，Muse甚至可能为Meta 2028年EPS带来15%以上的增量空间。不过，这一结果高度取决于用户规模、商业查询频率和变现效率等假设，并非该行的基准预测。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>智能体竞争关键不只在模型 分发能力与独家数据成为核心筹码</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，决定横向AI智能体最终竞争格局的两个重要因素，是规模化分发能力和大规模独特数据集。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是Meta、谷歌和苹果被该行认为具备较好基础的原因。苹果和谷歌分别掌握iOS和Android生态，其软件与硬件的深度整合，使两家公司更容易在整个设备生态中部署智能体应用和功能；Meta的差异化优势则来自Facebook和Instagram等平台积累的大量第一方数据，这些数据有助于智能体理解用户偏好并提供更加个性化的服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，技术能力本身并不足以保证最终胜出。摩根士丹利指出，推动智能体普及本质上还涉及消费者行为习惯的改变，因此产品推广、用户教育以及能否清楚展示实际使用价值同样重要。Muse推出时间尚不足10天，但初期用户表现已经释放出一些积极信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>电商格局或重新洗牌 亚马逊、eBay及Shopify定位相对有利</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在智能体逐步介入购物决策和交易之后，电商平台可能成为最直接受到影响的领域之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，在其覆盖的电商公司中，亚马逊和eBay的智能体时代定位相对较好，而Peloton(PTON.US)、Chewy(CHWY.US)和FIGS(FIGS.US)等公司面临的潜在风险相对更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Shopify则扮演不同角色。摩根士丹利认为，Shopify并不只是一个直接面对消费者的购物平台，其更重要的价值在于为大量分散的商户提供基础设施。因此，当商户需要调整商品信息、交易流程和技术架构，以适应智能体主导的购物环境时，Shopify可能成为帮助这些商家完成转型的重要“基础设施提供者”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之，当消费者越来越多地让AI替自己“找商品、比价格、下订单”时，电商行业竞争的重点可能逐渐从“谁拥有最好的网站和App”，扩展至“谁最容易被AI智能体发现、理解并完成交易”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>旅游平台并非最脆弱 独特实时库存构成重要壁垒</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期市场对于智能体颠覆在线旅游平台(OTA)的担忧明显升温。报告指出，随着相关担忧重新发酵，一些处于“智能体竞争战场”的在线旅游公司股价在此前约两周内累计下跌约6%-12%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但摩根士丹利认为，市场可能低估了Booking Holdings(BKNG.US)、Airbnb(ABNB.US)和Expedia(EXPE.US)手中的一项重要资产，独特、分散、规模庞大且不断变化的实时库存。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">酒店房间、民宿、航班等旅游产品不像标准化商品一样容易被AI完全替代。旅游消费通常需要大量图片浏览、目的地探索、行程规划和产品发现，因此消费者并不一定愿意完全跳过OTA平台。摩根士丹利认为，“探索、规划和产品发现”本身可能构成旅游行业的一种竞争壁垒。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，OTA仍需关注两个关键指标：一是直接流量是否被AI智能体分流；二是这些平台能否推出自己的智能体产品，将用户和交易继续留在自身平台之内。这两点可能影响其长期估值水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>网约车面临更直接冲击 AI可能把竞争进一步推向“比价”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比旅游和外卖，摩根士丹利认为，网约车行业面临的智能体颠覆风险更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">原因在于网约车服务更加标准化。对于一名只是希望从办公室前往机场的消费者而言，优步(UBER.US)和Lyft(LYFT.US)之间的选择可能主要取决于价格和等待时间。智能体完全可以同时查询多个平台，然后自动选择价格最低或最快的一项服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较之下，点外卖和订旅游产品通常涉及更多图片浏览、探索和个人偏好，因此消费者主动参与决策的价值更高。摩根士丹利因此认为，越标准化、客单价越小、越依赖价格进行决策的交易，越容易受到横向AI智能体影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，这并不意味着优步、Lyft或DoorDash(DASH.US)会失去价值。摩根士丹利指出，大规模司机、配送员以及本地配送网络本身就是智能体难以自行复制的实体基础设施。即使未来消费者通过Meta或其他AI智能体叫车、点餐，横向智能体仍可能需要接入优步、Lyft和DoorDash的网络才能真正完成服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，真正的问题可能从“消费者是否继续打开优步App”，转变为“当AI成为入口后，优步能从一笔订单中保留多少经济价值”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>谷歌面临更深层考验 智能体佣金模式可能压低传统搜索变现率</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利认为，智能体时代一个尤其值得关注的潜在受影响者是谷歌现有商业模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着Meta等大型平台不断推出智能体产品，如果这些产品成功吸引大量用户，并从谷歌搜索引擎手中夺走具有商业价值的查询和交易，谷歌可能不得不主动调整目前高度成熟的搜索广告变现体系。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中最大的差异在于“抽成率”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利估计，目前传统搜索广告每笔交易对应的“有效抽成率”——即广告支出占商品交易总额(GMV)的比例——大约是今年早期部分智能体交易佣金模式的5至10倍。这意味着，如果消费者越来越多地直接通过AI智能体完成购买，而不是点击传统搜索广告进入商家网站，谷歌可能面临单笔交易变现水平下降的风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，该行认为，谷歌必须继续加快下一代智能体产品落地，利用其庞大的搜索用户基础和数据优势守住智能体交易漏斗的上游位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但谷歌并非没有缓冲空间。目前零售商超过80%的线上流量仍属于免费或直接流量。随着AI智能体普及，如果部分原本免费的直接流量转化为需要支付佣金的智能体流量，即使单笔交易抽成率下降，新增的付费交易量也可能部分抵消影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利测算，如果约5个百分点的免费/直接流量转向付费渠道，可以抵消有效抽成率约14个百分点的下降；但如果智能体最终的抽成率只有5%，谷歌需要约38个百分点的流量从免费渠道转向付费渠道才能完全实现收支平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也意味着，智能体时代潜在的利益冲突将越来越明显，谷歌等大型平台希望把更多原本免费的直接流量转化为可收费的智能体交易，而零售商则需要保护利润率更高的直接流量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cde2e4fc86b629e1a7a7708ea53eb694","relate_stocks":{"AMZU":"2倍做多AMZN ETF-Direxion","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","AAPD":"1倍做空AAPL ETF-Direxion","METQ":"Tradr 2X Short META Daily ETF","AAPL":"苹果","AMZW":"Roundhill AMZN WeeklyPay™ ETF","FBL":"2倍做多META ETF-GraniteShares","AAPE":"Leverage Shares 2X Long AAPL Daily ETF","METU":"2倍做多META ETF-Direxion","IOSX":"Corgi AAPL 2x Daily 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Platforms(META.US)推出Muse智能体，以及Instinct等AI智能体迅速获得市场关注，“智能体AI”正在从单纯的信息问答工具进一步向能够替用户搜索、比较、决策乃至完成交易的“行动型助手”演变。摩根士丹利估计，未来可通过智能体产品实现数字化的全球消费者支出规模约达30万亿美元，覆盖电商、旅游、广告、外卖、网约车等多个领域，其潜在市场规模与生成式AI在企业知识工作领域的市场机会大致相当。摩根士丹利认为，这场智能体浪潮不仅可能创造新的流量入口和交易渠道，也可能重新分配互联网行业长期形成的利润池。拥有庞大用户分发渠道、独特数据以及软硬件生态的平台处于相对有利位置，其中Meta、苹果(AAPL.US)和谷歌(GOOGL.US)具备较明显的基础优势；在下游企业中，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、eBay(EBAY.US)和Shopify(SHOP.US)等公司的智能体时代定位相对突出。与此同时，网约车等标准化程度较高、消费者更看重价格的行业面临的潜在冲击更值得关注。值得注意的是，摩根士丹利此次对北美互联网行业整体前景仍持乐观态度，并将Meta、苹果、亚马逊、eBay和Shopify列为其认为在智能体浪潮中定位较为有利的一批公司。Meta Muse成为新变量 每1亿用户或为2028年EPS贡献约1%增量此次研报尤其关注Meta最新推出的Muse。摩根士丹利认为，Muse是智能体市场的一项重要进展：推出后连续9天位居应用下载榜前五，同时能够利用Facebook、Instagram及Meta其他数据资源提供个性化交互，并已将移动网页浏览和操作能力融入使用场景，可以直接通过浏览器执行部分交易任务。与此同时，Muse具有较高的免费使用额度——每周提供1亿个免费token，摩根士丹利估计，这一额度可能足以支持用户每天进行100次以上查询。与单纯依靠订阅收费相比，摩根士丹利认为，Muse真正值得关注的商业化机会可能来自用户行为和交易本身。目前Muse可以通过订阅模式收费，但该行预计，Meta最终可能针对由Muse促成的交易收取佣金。摩根士丹利还对这一商业模式进行了量化测算。假设到2028年Muse拥有1亿用户，每名用户每天发起5次查询，其中10%属于可以商业化的查询，同时Meta每次商业查询实现约0.07美元收入，那么Muse一年可为Meta贡献约13亿美元收入和约0.35美元增量每股收益，相当于为2028年EPS增加约1%。而这一模型具有相当大的规模效应。摩根士丹利的敏感性分析显示，如果Muse用户规模以及每名用户产生的商业查询数量进一步提高，其交易相关收入可能达到80亿美元以上；在更积极的情景下，Muse甚至可能为Meta 2028年EPS带来15%以上的增量空间。不过，这一结果高度取决于用户规模、商业查询频率和变现效率等假设，并非该行的基准预测。智能体竞争关键不只在模型 分发能力与独家数据成为核心筹码摩根士丹利认为，决定横向AI智能体最终竞争格局的两个重要因素，是规模化分发能力和大规模独特数据集。这也是Meta、谷歌和苹果被该行认为具备较好基础的原因。苹果和谷歌分别掌握iOS和Android生态，其软件与硬件的深度整合，使两家公司更容易在整个设备生态中部署智能体应用和功能；Meta的差异化优势则来自Facebook和Instagram等平台积累的大量第一方数据，这些数据有助于智能体理解用户偏好并提供更加个性化的服务。不过，技术能力本身并不足以保证最终胜出。摩根士丹利指出，推动智能体普及本质上还涉及消费者行为习惯的改变，因此产品推广、用户教育以及能否清楚展示实际使用价值同样重要。Muse推出时间尚不足10天，但初期用户表现已经释放出一些积极信号。电商格局或重新洗牌 亚马逊、eBay及Shopify定位相对有利在智能体逐步介入购物决策和交易之后，电商平台可能成为最直接受到影响的领域之一。摩根士丹利认为，在其覆盖的电商公司中，亚马逊和eBay的智能体时代定位相对较好，而Peloton(PTON.US)、Chewy(CHWY.US)和FIGS(FIGS.US)等公司面临的潜在风险相对更高。Shopify则扮演不同角色。摩根士丹利认为，Shopify并不只是一个直接面对消费者的购物平台，其更重要的价值在于为大量分散的商户提供基础设施。因此，当商户需要调整商品信息、交易流程和技术架构，以适应智能体主导的购物环境时，Shopify可能成为帮助这些商家完成转型的重要“基础设施提供者”。换言之，当消费者越来越多地让AI替自己“找商品、比价格、下订单”时，电商行业竞争的重点可能逐渐从“谁拥有最好的网站和App”，扩展至“谁最容易被AI智能体发现、理解并完成交易”。旅游平台并非最脆弱 独特实时库存构成重要壁垒近期市场对于智能体颠覆在线旅游平台(OTA)的担忧明显升温。报告指出，随着相关担忧重新发酵，一些处于“智能体竞争战场”的在线旅游公司股价在此前约两周内累计下跌约6%-12%。但摩根士丹利认为，市场可能低估了Booking Holdings(BKNG.US)、Airbnb(ABNB.US)和Expedia(EXPE.US)手中的一项重要资产，独特、分散、规模庞大且不断变化的实时库存。酒店房间、民宿、航班等旅游产品不像标准化商品一样容易被AI完全替代。旅游消费通常需要大量图片浏览、目的地探索、行程规划和产品发现，因此消费者并不一定愿意完全跳过OTA平台。摩根士丹利认为，“探索、规划和产品发现”本身可能构成旅游行业的一种竞争壁垒。不过，OTA仍需关注两个关键指标：一是直接流量是否被AI智能体分流；二是这些平台能否推出自己的智能体产品，将用户和交易继续留在自身平台之内。这两点可能影响其长期估值水平。网约车面临更直接冲击 AI可能把竞争进一步推向“比价”相比旅游和外卖，摩根士丹利认为，网约车行业面临的智能体颠覆风险更高。原因在于网约车服务更加标准化。对于一名只是希望从办公室前往机场的消费者而言，优步(UBER.US)和Lyft(LYFT.US)之间的选择可能主要取决于价格和等待时间。智能体完全可以同时查询多个平台，然后自动选择价格最低或最快的一项服务。相较之下，点外卖和订旅游产品通常涉及更多图片浏览、探索和个人偏好，因此消费者主动参与决策的价值更高。摩根士丹利因此认为，越标准化、客单价越小、越依赖价格进行决策的交易，越容易受到横向AI智能体影响。不过，这并不意味着优步、Lyft或DoorDash(DASH.US)会失去价值。摩根士丹利指出，大规模司机、配送员以及本地配送网络本身就是智能体难以自行复制的实体基础设施。即使未来消费者通过Meta或其他AI智能体叫车、点餐，横向智能体仍可能需要接入优步、Lyft和DoorDash的网络才能真正完成服务。因此，真正的问题可能从“消费者是否继续打开优步App”，转变为“当AI成为入口后，优步能从一笔订单中保留多少经济价值”。谷歌面临更深层考验 智能体佣金模式可能压低传统搜索变现率摩根士丹利认为，智能体时代一个尤其值得关注的潜在受影响者是谷歌现有商业模式。随着Meta等大型平台不断推出智能体产品，如果这些产品成功吸引大量用户，并从谷歌搜索引擎手中夺走具有商业价值的查询和交易，谷歌可能不得不主动调整目前高度成熟的搜索广告变现体系。其中最大的差异在于“抽成率”。摩根士丹利估计，目前传统搜索广告每笔交易对应的“有效抽成率”——即广告支出占商品交易总额(GMV)的比例——大约是今年早期部分智能体交易佣金模式的5至10倍。这意味着，如果消费者越来越多地直接通过AI智能体完成购买，而不是点击传统搜索广告进入商家网站，谷歌可能面临单笔交易变现水平下降的风险。因此，该行认为，谷歌必须继续加快下一代智能体产品落地，利用其庞大的搜索用户基础和数据优势守住智能体交易漏斗的上游位置。但谷歌并非没有缓冲空间。目前零售商超过80%的线上流量仍属于免费或直接流量。随着AI智能体普及，如果部分原本免费的直接流量转化为需要支付佣金的智能体流量，即使单笔交易抽成率下降，新增的付费交易量也可能部分抵消影响。摩根士丹利测算，如果约5个百分点的免费/直接流量转向付费渠道，可以抵消有效抽成率约14个百分点的下降；但如果智能体最终的抽成率只有5%，谷歌需要约38个百分点的流量从免费渠道转向付费渠道才能完全实现收支平衡。这也意味着，智能体时代潜在的利益冲突将越来越明显，谷歌等大型平台希望把更多原本免费的直接流量转化为可收费的智能体交易，而零售商则需要保护利润率更高的直接流量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPB":0.6,"FBYY":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"FBL":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"METQ":0.6,"METG":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"AMZN":2,"AMZO":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AMAA":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AMZY":0.6,"AMZD":0.6,"AMZG":0.6,"AMZP":0.6,"METU":0.6,"IOSX":0.6,"FBX":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"AMZU":0.6,"META":2,"METD":0.6,"AAPL":2,"AAPE":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AZYY":0.6,"METW":0.6,"AMZW":0.6,"FBY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":592895919739240,"gmtCreate":1785777557738,"gmtModify":1785777559877,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了&nbsp; 今天深跌反弹&nbsp; 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号&nbsp; 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实&nbsp; 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","listText":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了&nbsp; 今天深跌反弹&nbsp; 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号&nbsp; 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实&nbsp; 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","text":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/592895919739240","repostId":"1191337680","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191337680","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785747178,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191337680?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-03 16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191337680","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的Rubin Ultra预览版规格低于市场此前预期。SemiAnalysis表示，MI455X取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-03 16:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"MIC":"2倍做多MU ETF-Corgi","AMDW":"Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","AMDU":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income AMD ETF","AMDY":"AMD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AMYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST AMD ETF","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA 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Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约640万美元。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近40%降至约28%，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由4%提升至12%。换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到60.54万亿韩元，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约0.7万亿韩元，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到7300亿美元，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MUU":0.6,"SMCL":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"SMCZ":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"AMD":2,"AVGX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SMCI":2,"AMDY":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"AVGO":2,"AVL":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"SMYY":0.6,"07388":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"HPE":2,"DELL":2,"MU":2,"DLLL":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVYY":0.6,"SMCX":0.6,"SMCY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SMCC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582055511184664,"gmtCreate":1783134898947,"gmtModify":1783137554962,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","listText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","text":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582055511184664","repostId":"2648520346","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2648520346","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782952915,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2648520346?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-02 08:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648520346","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SemiAnalysis透露，谷歌下一代TPU（Humufish）将弃用台积电CoWoS，改用英特尔EMIB-T封装。EMIB-T通过硅通孔实现垂直供电，不仅去除了昂贵的中介层、大幅降低成本并提高硅片利用率，还能更好地支持下一代HBM。然而，EMIB-T作为新技术，其大规模量产的良率仍是英特尔面临的最大考验。","content":"<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-02 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI 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Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2092937148.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776021","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2648520346","content_text":"7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，谷歌下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃台积电的CoWoS封装，转而采用英特尔的EMIB-T技术。\n目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。谷歌作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，\n\n“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”\n\n两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。\n\n摆脱光罩限制与降低成本\n台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。\nSemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”\n除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。\n更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。\n相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。\n\n \n \n垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM\nHumufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。\nSemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”\n这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。\n\n架构适配性与量产大考\n针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。\n“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”\nNutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。\n\n量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考\n尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”\n\nSemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”\n只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.88,"TSMZ":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"03145":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"04335":1.92,"STSM":0.6,"GOOGL":1.95,"LINT":0.6,"INTC":1.92,"GOU":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"INTW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}