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05-19 21:51
为什么盘中还在跌呢
花旗看高美光至840美元！目标价近乎翻倍，预言DRAM均价明年狂飙200%
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DRAM 的位元供应增长率正走向 30%，但仍需要额外的新晶圆产能来满足 2027 年的 AI 需求。我们将美光的预测与花旗的研究观点进行了对齐，即 2026 年 DRAM 的平均售价(ASP)将同比飙升 200%，而 2026 年 NAND 的平均售价将同比上涨 186%。”</p><p>韩国公司 SK 海力士和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>位列全球最大的内存芯片制造商之列。SK 海力士是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>HBM 芯片的主要供应商。三星和美光在这一领域与 SK 海力士展开竞争。</p><p>花旗分析师指出，HBM 的供应依然紧张。分析师补充道，鉴于 3 比 4 的晶圆转换率以及 HBM 与商品化市场之间的利润率差异，目前内存制造商缺乏转换或增加额外 HBM 产能的动力。</p><p>3 比 4 的晶圆转换率通常是指 3 英寸和 4 英寸半导体衬底之间的物理切换或加工成本对比。</p><p>分析师还补充称，由于 HBM 产能紧张，他们预计 HBM 的定价在 2027 年会走高，且内存制造商在增加供应时会保持克制，以防止明年 AI 数据中心削减 HBM 的搭载量。分析师提到，上周为了应对强劲的定价，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>已经在包括无线产品在内的 20 多个项目中将 DRAM 的搭载量削减了 50%。</p><p>HBM产能的制造流程独特，包括存储芯片行业迄今最为复杂的先进封装、硅通孔(TSV)以及良率问题。洁净室严格限制及更高级别绿色能效要求阻碍了快速扩张产能以应对价格飙升。传统上，当价格对存储芯片厂商们极为有利时，供应通常会很快跟进增加。但目前行业面临诸多结构性限制——尤其是制造与封装工艺极度复杂的HBM愈发挤占产能、通用DRAM/NAND供给弹性不足，而AI驱动的需求增长速度持续超预期。</p><p>在第一季度的业绩电话会议中，美光管理层特别提到面向AI基础设施的高容量数据中心SSD、KV缓存部署以及与英伟达AI算力基础设施集群相关的PCIe Gen6 SSD需求爆发。这表明AI相关存储芯片需求远比许多华尔街分析师预期范围的要广。现代AI基础设施不仅消耗更多HBM内存，还需要高带宽DRAM、更多存储容量以及高速SSD基础设施，以满足检索和agentic AI(即AI智能体)工作负载的增长需求。新兴AI应用，包括机器人、多AI代理系统和多模态推理模型，也在持续创造新的存储需求向量，意味着AI存储密集度可能在AI部署完成后仍继续指数级增长。</p><p>正如美光科技数据中心业务部门高级副总裁兼总经理Jeremy Werner在最新采访中揭示的那样，从底层的AI数据中心数据流处理工程逻辑看，这轮行情的底层驱动力不是“AI需要更多计算芯片”这么简单，而是Claude Cowork，以及OpenClaw等AI智能体主导的AI推理时代把内存/存储从配套组件推成系统瓶颈。</p><p>AI训练工程更依赖大规模并行计算，而推理尤其是长上下文、多轮对话、Agentic AI工作流，需要持续保存KV Cache、上下文状态和中间结果;内存/存储空间不足时，模型不得不重复计算历史状态，GPU利用率下降、token生成成本上升。因此，HBM、DDR5、LPDDR、企业级SSD乃至HDD/数据湖，正在形成一条从GPU近端到远端存储的“AI记忆链”，决定AI系统的吞吐、延迟、并发能力和单位token经济性。这也是为什么美光、三星、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>等存储与数据存储股出现联动狂飙：需求不是只集中在HBM，而是沿着AI服务器架构向DRAM、NAND、SSD和HDD全链条外溢。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1443609.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，花旗将美光科技(MU.US)的股票目标价从 425 美元大幅上调至 840 美元，并维持“买入”评级。理由是预期该公司将提高动态随机存取内存(DRAM)的价格。分析师表示：“我们将美光的目标价从 425 美元(对应 2027 自然年每股收益的 5 倍)上调至 840 美元(对应 2027 自然年每股收益的 8 倍)，因为我们认为，继同行三星在第一自然年提价 100% 之后，美光...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1443609.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA 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的景气周期将持续到 2027 自然年，并预计 HBM[高带宽内存]的价格明年将会上涨。”“今年大部分的 DRAM 提价都集中在商品化或非 HBM DRAM 的供需失衡上。尽管鉴于应用材料(AMAT.US)等设备制造商近期给出的硅系统销售额增长 30% 以上的预期，我们认为截至 2026 年底 DRAM 的位元供应增长率正走向 30%，但仍需要额外的新晶圆产能来满足 2027 年的 AI 需求。我们将美光的预测与花旗的研究观点进行了对齐，即 2026 年 DRAM 的平均售价(ASP)将同比飙升 200%，而 2026 年 NAND 的平均售价将同比上涨 186%。”韩国公司 SK 海力士和三星电子位列全球最大的内存芯片制造商之列。SK 海力士是英伟达HBM 芯片的主要供应商。三星和美光在这一领域与 SK 海力士展开竞争。花旗分析师指出，HBM 的供应依然紧张。分析师补充道，鉴于 3 比 4 的晶圆转换率以及 HBM 与商品化市场之间的利润率差异，目前内存制造商缺乏转换或增加额外 HBM 产能的动力。3 比 4 的晶圆转换率通常是指 3 英寸和 4 英寸半导体衬底之间的物理切换或加工成本对比。分析师还补充称，由于 HBM 产能紧张，他们预计 HBM 的定价在 2027 年会走高，且内存制造商在增加供应时会保持克制，以防止明年 AI 数据中心削减 HBM 的搭载量。分析师提到，上周为了应对强劲的定价，思科已经在包括无线产品在内的 20 多个项目中将 DRAM 的搭载量削减了 50%。HBM产能的制造流程独特，包括存储芯片行业迄今最为复杂的先进封装、硅通孔(TSV)以及良率问题。洁净室严格限制及更高级别绿色能效要求阻碍了快速扩张产能以应对价格飙升。传统上，当价格对存储芯片厂商们极为有利时，供应通常会很快跟进增加。但目前行业面临诸多结构性限制——尤其是制造与封装工艺极度复杂的HBM愈发挤占产能、通用DRAM/NAND供给弹性不足，而AI驱动的需求增长速度持续超预期。在第一季度的业绩电话会议中，美光管理层特别提到面向AI基础设施的高容量数据中心SSD、KV缓存部署以及与英伟达AI算力基础设施集群相关的PCIe Gen6 SSD需求爆发。这表明AI相关存储芯片需求远比许多华尔街分析师预期范围的要广。现代AI基础设施不仅消耗更多HBM内存，还需要高带宽DRAM、更多存储容量以及高速SSD基础设施，以满足检索和agentic AI(即AI智能体)工作负载的增长需求。新兴AI应用，包括机器人、多AI代理系统和多模态推理模型，也在持续创造新的存储需求向量，意味着AI存储密集度可能在AI部署完成后仍继续指数级增长。正如美光科技数据中心业务部门高级副总裁兼总经理Jeremy Werner在最新采访中揭示的那样，从底层的AI数据中心数据流处理工程逻辑看，这轮行情的底层驱动力不是“AI需要更多计算芯片”这么简单，而是Claude Cowork，以及OpenClaw等AI智能体主导的AI推理时代把内存/存储从配套组件推成系统瓶颈。AI训练工程更依赖大规模并行计算，而推理尤其是长上下文、多轮对话、Agentic AI工作流，需要持续保存KV Cache、上下文状态和中间结果;内存/存储空间不足时，模型不得不重复计算历史状态，GPU利用率下降、token生成成本上升。因此，HBM、DDR5、LPDDR、企业级SSD乃至HDD/数据湖，正在形成一条从GPU近端到远端存储的“AI记忆链”，决定AI系统的吞吐、延迟、并发能力和单位token经济性。这也是为什么美光、三星、SK海力士、闪迪、西部数据等存储与数据存储股出现联动狂飙：需求不是只集中在HBM，而是沿着AI服务器架构向DRAM、NAND、SSD和HDD全链条外溢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MULL":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"MU":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":565921036294136,"gmtCreate":1779198706966,"gmtModify":1779200535087,"author":{"id":"4211091566332892","authorId":"4211091566332892","name":"时间的玫瑰jj","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4211091566332892","idStr":"4211091566332892"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"为什么盘中还在跌呢","listText":"为什么盘中还在跌呢","text":"为什么盘中还在跌呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/565921036294136","repostId":"2636955856","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2636955856","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1779193800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2636955856?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-19 20:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"花旗看高美光至840美元！目标价近乎翻倍，预言DRAM均价明年狂飙200%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636955856","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，花旗将美光科技的股票目标价从 425 美元大幅上调至 840 美元，并维持“买入”评级。理由是预期该公司将提高动态随机存取内存的价格。分析师表示：“我们将美光的目标价从 425 美元上调至 840 美元，因为我们认为，继同行三星在第一自然年提价 100% 之后，美光将在第二自然年将 DRAM 价格提高 40% 以上。此外，我们预计 DRAM 的景气周期将持续到 2027 自然年，并预计 HBM[高带宽内存]的价格明年将会上涨。”三星和美光在这一领域与 SK 海力士展开竞争。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，花旗将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>(MU.US)的股票目标价从 425 美元大幅上调至 840 美元，并维持“买入”评级。理由是预期该公司将提高动态随机存取内存(DRAM)的价格。</p><p>分析师表示：“我们将美光的目标价从 425 美元(对应 2027 自然年每股收益的 5 倍)上调至 840 美元(对应 2027 自然年每股收益的 8 倍)，因为我们认为，继同行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>在第一自然年提价 100% 之后，美光将在第二自然年将 DRAM 价格提高 40% 以上。此外，我们预计 DRAM 的景气周期将持续到 2027 自然年，并预计 HBM[高带宽内存]的价格明年将会上涨。”</p><p>“今年大部分的 DRAM 提价都集中在商品化或非 HBM DRAM 的供需失衡上。尽管鉴于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>(AMAT.US)等设备制造商近期给出的硅系统销售额增长 30% 以上的预期，我们认为截至 2026 年底 DRAM 的位元供应增长率正走向 30%，但仍需要额外的新晶圆产能来满足 2027 年的 AI 需求。我们将美光的预测与花旗的研究观点进行了对齐，即 2026 年 DRAM 的平均售价(ASP)将同比飙升 200%，而 2026 年 NAND 的平均售价将同比上涨 186%。”</p><p>韩国公司 SK 海力士和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>位列全球最大的内存芯片制造商之列。SK 海力士是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>HBM 芯片的主要供应商。三星和美光在这一领域与 SK 海力士展开竞争。</p><p>花旗分析师指出，HBM 的供应依然紧张。分析师补充道，鉴于 3 比 4 的晶圆转换率以及 HBM 与商品化市场之间的利润率差异，目前内存制造商缺乏转换或增加额外 HBM 产能的动力。</p><p>3 比 4 的晶圆转换率通常是指 3 英寸和 4 英寸半导体衬底之间的物理切换或加工成本对比。</p><p>分析师还补充称，由于 HBM 产能紧张，他们预计 HBM 的定价在 2027 年会走高，且内存制造商在增加供应时会保持克制，以防止明年 AI 数据中心削减 HBM 的搭载量。分析师提到，上周为了应对强劲的定价，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>已经在包括无线产品在内的 20 多个项目中将 DRAM 的搭载量削减了 50%。</p><p>HBM产能的制造流程独特，包括存储芯片行业迄今最为复杂的先进封装、硅通孔(TSV)以及良率问题。洁净室严格限制及更高级别绿色能效要求阻碍了快速扩张产能以应对价格飙升。传统上，当价格对存储芯片厂商们极为有利时，供应通常会很快跟进增加。但目前行业面临诸多结构性限制——尤其是制造与封装工艺极度复杂的HBM愈发挤占产能、通用DRAM/NAND供给弹性不足，而AI驱动的需求增长速度持续超预期。</p><p>在第一季度的业绩电话会议中，美光管理层特别提到面向AI基础设施的高容量数据中心SSD、KV缓存部署以及与英伟达AI算力基础设施集群相关的PCIe Gen6 SSD需求爆发。这表明AI相关存储芯片需求远比许多华尔街分析师预期范围的要广。现代AI基础设施不仅消耗更多HBM内存，还需要高带宽DRAM、更多存储容量以及高速SSD基础设施，以满足检索和agentic AI(即AI智能体)工作负载的增长需求。新兴AI应用，包括机器人、多AI代理系统和多模态推理模型，也在持续创造新的存储需求向量，意味着AI存储密集度可能在AI部署完成后仍继续指数级增长。</p><p>正如美光科技数据中心业务部门高级副总裁兼总经理Jeremy Werner在最新采访中揭示的那样，从底层的AI数据中心数据流处理工程逻辑看，这轮行情的底层驱动力不是“AI需要更多计算芯片”这么简单，而是Claude Cowork，以及OpenClaw等AI智能体主导的AI推理时代把内存/存储从配套组件推成系统瓶颈。</p><p>AI训练工程更依赖大规模并行计算，而推理尤其是长上下文、多轮对话、Agentic AI工作流，需要持续保存KV Cache、上下文状态和中间结果;内存/存储空间不足时，模型不得不重复计算历史状态，GPU利用率下降、token生成成本上升。因此，HBM、DDR5、LPDDR、企业级SSD乃至HDD/数据湖，正在形成一条从GPU近端到远端存储的“AI记忆链”，决定AI系统的吞吐、延迟、并发能力和单位token经济性。这也是为什么美光、三星、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>等存储与数据存储股出现联动狂飙：需求不是只集中在HBM，而是沿着AI服务器架构向DRAM、NAND、SSD和HDD全链条外溢。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>花旗看高美光至840美元！目标价近乎翻倍，预言DRAM均价明年狂飙200%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n花旗看高美光至840美元！目标价近乎翻倍，预言DRAM均价明年狂飙200%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-19 20:30 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1443609.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，花旗将美光科技(MU.US)的股票目标价从 425 美元大幅上调至 840 美元，并维持“买入”评级。理由是预期该公司将提高动态随机存取内存(DRAM)的价格。分析师表示：“我们将美光的目标价从 425 美元(对应 2027 自然年每股收益的 5 倍)上调至 840 美元(对应 2027 自然年每股收益的 8 倍)，因为我们认为，继同行三星在第一自然年提价 100% 之后，美光...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1443609.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA 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