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05-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@宏观姐夫:美国参议院以54票对45票批准沃什出任美联储主席，投资者要紧盯这5个时间点

02-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@期权小班长:暴跌提前兑现

2025-06-19

中了

2025-06-11

$联合健康(UNH)$ 看多了

2025-06-05

$联合健康(UNH)$ 牢笼

2025-05-28

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2025-05-22

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2025-05-16

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市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","listText":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","text":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3248156fb84ea77888b7d9997bea27","width":"1672","height":"941"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9200e3553345f148d4dc2733fd63dc9","width":"1672","height":"941"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85eb31e1443241efd2b535c0d20e98ff","width":"1672","height":"941"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564101877719384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529661743853592,"gmtCreate":1770332817658,"gmtModify":1770332819692,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529661743853592","repostId":"529553326101072","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":529553326101072,"gmtCreate":1770305797908,"gmtModify":1770377400193,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"暴跌提前兑现","htmlText":"大家应该还有印象我们前两天发的30万手VIX看涨期权吧 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX%2020260218%2035.0%20CALL\">$VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL\">$VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ，没想到暴跌这么快就开始了。 目前看来3月中旬前会跌出底部，到时很好抄底。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 对于AI板块这波集体回调，没什么好讲的，市场上值得投注的标的越来越少不是什么好事，回想25年百花齐放，闭眼随便买才是最好的环境，不光是对于投资，对于AI本身来说也是。 虽然周初说英伟达回调170可以考虑sell put，但目前来看这波下跌还没完，股价可能会到160。 周三有个大单sell put了3月初到期140 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260306%20140.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20260306 140.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓4.28万手。从行权价大家应该可以看出来这次回调的预期了吧，170不值得机构接盘，但140可以考虑。 第二个大单是下周到期157.5put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a> ，开仓2.5万手买入，意思是不排除股价会回调到60周均线位置。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$&lt;</a>","listText":"大家应该还有印象我们前两天发的30万手VIX看涨期权吧 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX%2020260218%2035.0%20CALL\">$VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL\">$VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ，没想到暴跌这么快就开始了。 目前看来3月中旬前会跌出底部，到时很好抄底。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 对于AI板块这波集体回调，没什么好讲的，市场上值得投注的标的越来越少不是什么好事，回想25年百花齐放，闭眼随便买才是最好的环境，不光是对于投资，对于AI本身来说也是。 虽然周初说英伟达回调170可以考虑sell put，但目前来看这波下跌还没完，股价可能会到160。 周三有个大单sell put了3月初到期140 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260306%20140.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20260306 140.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓4.28万手。从行权价大家应该可以看出来这次回调的预期了吧，170不值得机构接盘，但140可以考虑。 第二个大单是下周到期157.5put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a> ，开仓2.5万手买入，意思是不排除股价会回调到60周均线位置。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$&lt;</a>","text":"大家应该还有印象我们前两天发的30万手VIX看涨期权吧 $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$ $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$ ，没想到暴跌这么快就开始了。 目前看来3月中旬前会跌出底部，到时很好抄底。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 对于AI板块这波集体回调，没什么好讲的，市场上值得投注的标的越来越少不是什么好事，回想25年百花齐放，闭眼随便买才是最好的环境，不光是对于投资，对于AI本身来说也是。 虽然周初说英伟达回调170可以考虑sell put，但目前来看这波下跌还没完，股价可能会到160。 周三有个大单sell put了3月初到期140 $NVDA 20260306 140.0 PUT$ ，开仓4.28万手。从行权价大家应该可以看出来这次回调的预期了吧，170不值得机构接盘，但140可以考虑。 第二个大单是下周到期157.5put $NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$ ，开仓2.5万手买入，意思是不排除股价会回调到60周均线位置。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 牢笼","text":"$联合健康(UNH)$ 牢笼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442836510052504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439771224371392,"gmtCreate":1748394507193,"gmtModify":1748395908949,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$比亚迪股份(01211)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439771224371392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":437773191741848,"gmtCreate":1747902797691,"gmtModify":1747906452924,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"挺好","listText":"挺好","text":"挺好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053365d70400faf9e5606cb7772c3300","width":"1112","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437773191741848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":435662715134504,"gmtCreate":1747392752500,"gmtModify":1747400762942,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YB\">$元保(YB)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YB\">$元保(YB)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$元保(YB)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3f28ac83f99bd10f2dd65b0d6f144e","width":"1112","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/435662715134504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":444951319663216,"gmtCreate":1749652087465,"gmtModify":1749652088554,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看多了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看多了","text":"$联合健康(UNH)$ 看多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/444951319663216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564674824517512,"gmtCreate":1778894455891,"gmtModify":1778894458521,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564674824517512","repostId":"564101877719384","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":564101877719384,"gmtCreate":1778731635517,"gmtModify":1778738153673,"author":{"id":"4240127339965010","authorId":"4240127339965010","name":"宏观姐夫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786901ed7d73568418b065fbd21e071d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4240127339965010","authorIdStr":"4240127339965010"},"themes":[],"title":"美国参议院以54票对45票批准沃什出任美联储主席，投资者要紧盯这5个时间点","htmlText":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","listText":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","text":"5月13日，美国参议院以54票对45票确认凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席。鲍威尔的主席任期将在5月15日结束，全球市场也将正式进入“沃什时代”。 市场真正关心的，不只是沃什会不会更快降息，而是他会不会顶住特朗普的宽松压力，会不会把通胀重新放回政策优先级，又能不能在美联储内部分歧加大的背景下，建立自己的政策权威。 所以，沃什上任后的前100天，不只是一次职位交接，更是市场重新理解美联储政策方向的过程。真正值得盯的，是下面5个时间点。 1、5月15日：正式接棒，市场开始给“沃什框架”定价 5月15日，鲍威尔的主席任期结束，沃什正式接棒。 这个节点本身未必立刻带来剧烈波动，但从这一天开始，市场看待美联储的方式会发生变化。过去大家问的是：鲍威尔会不会转鸽。接下来要问的是：沃什到底会把美联储往哪里带。 他面前的环境并不轻松。 一边是特朗普希望更低利率；另一边是美国通胀压力重新抬头，美联储内部也已经出现更偏鹰的声音。沃什此前在参议院听证会上强调，美联储需要维护货币政策独立性，同时也承认通胀是央行必须正面应对的问题。 所以，5月15日之后，市场最先交易的，可能不是“马上降息”，而是： 沃什会不会成为一个更容易被政治影响的主席，还是一个更强调通胀纪律的主席。 如果市场更相信后者，美元和短端美债收益率容易获得支撑；如果市场更担心前者，长期通胀预期和黄金的避险定价反而可能上升。 2、上任后的首次公开讲话：市场听他先讲通胀，还是先讲增长 沃什上任后，第一次公开讲话会非常重要。 时间现在还没有确定，但这个节点一定会被市场盯住。因为一位新主席的第一次发声，往往不是普通讲话，而是在主动告诉市场：未来一段时间，什么是美联储最在意的矛盾。 市场会重点听两类表述。 如果沃什一上来就强调通胀风险、价格稳定和政策克制，市场会把他理解为偏鹰的新主席。2年期美债收益率和美元可能偏强，纳指等长久期资产会承受一些压力。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3248156fb84ea77888b7d9997bea27","width":"1672","height":"941"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9200e3553345f148d4dc2733fd63dc9","width":"1672","height":"941"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85eb31e1443241efd2b535c0d20e98ff","width":"1672","height":"941"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564101877719384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529661743853592,"gmtCreate":1770332817658,"gmtModify":1770332819692,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529661743853592","repostId":"529553326101072","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":529553326101072,"gmtCreate":1770305797908,"gmtModify":1770377400193,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"暴跌提前兑现","htmlText":"大家应该还有印象我们前两天发的30万手VIX看涨期权吧 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX%2020260218%2035.0%20CALL\">$VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL\">$VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ，没想到暴跌这么快就开始了。 目前看来3月中旬前会跌出底部，到时很好抄底。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 对于AI板块这波集体回调，没什么好讲的，市场上值得投注的标的越来越少不是什么好事，回想25年百花齐放，闭眼随便买才是最好的环境，不光是对于投资，对于AI本身来说也是。 虽然周初说英伟达回调170可以考虑sell put，但目前来看这波下跌还没完，股价可能会到160。 周三有个大单sell put了3月初到期140 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260306%20140.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20260306 140.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓4.28万手。从行权价大家应该可以看出来这次回调的预期了吧，170不值得机构接盘，但140可以考虑。 第二个大单是下周到期157.5put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a> ，开仓2.5万手买入，意思是不排除股价会回调到60周均线位置。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$&lt;</a>","listText":"大家应该还有印象我们前两天发的30万手VIX看涨期权吧 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX%2020260218%2035.0%20CALL\">$VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL\">$VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ，没想到暴跌这么快就开始了。 目前看来3月中旬前会跌出底部，到时很好抄底。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 对于AI板块这波集体回调，没什么好讲的，市场上值得投注的标的越来越少不是什么好事，回想25年百花齐放，闭眼随便买才是最好的环境，不光是对于投资，对于AI本身来说也是。 虽然周初说英伟达回调170可以考虑sell put，但目前来看这波下跌还没完，股价可能会到160。 周三有个大单sell put了3月初到期140 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260306%20140.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20260306 140.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓4.28万手。从行权价大家应该可以看出来这次回调的预期了吧，170不值得机构接盘，但140可以考虑。 第二个大单是下周到期157.5put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a> ，开仓2.5万手买入，意思是不排除股价会回调到60周均线位置。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$&lt;</a>","text":"大家应该还有印象我们前两天发的30万手VIX看涨期权吧 $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$ $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$ ，没想到暴跌这么快就开始了。 目前看来3月中旬前会跌出底部，到时很好抄底。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 对于AI板块这波集体回调，没什么好讲的，市场上值得投注的标的越来越少不是什么好事，回想25年百花齐放，闭眼随便买才是最好的环境，不光是对于投资，对于AI本身来说也是。 虽然周初说英伟达回调170可以考虑sell put，但目前来看这波下跌还没完，股价可能会到160。 周三有个大单sell put了3月初到期140 $NVDA 20260306 140.0 PUT$ ，开仓4.28万手。从行权价大家应该可以看出来这次回调的预期了吧，170不值得机构接盘，但140可以考虑。 第二个大单是下周到期157.5put $NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$ ，开仓2.5万手买入，意思是不排除股价会回调到60周均线位置。 $标普500ETF(SPY)$<","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21c99b8f30c86a293dfb5d20d2de2074","width":"1941","height":"200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37284b77e67252112b16a0274cbc888","width":"938","height":"891"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f4976288aa516c9af93b3e6678dbe49","width":"890","height":"894"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529553326101072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":447691866538880,"gmtCreate":1750322058306,"gmtModify":1750322060974,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中了","listText":"中了","text":"中了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eea7a62b9cd3828847cfe0a6c4b425df","width":"1344","height":"2390"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/447691866538880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442836510052504,"gmtCreate":1749136761620,"gmtModify":1749138172646,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 牢笼","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$联合健康(UNH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 牢笼","text":"$联合健康(UNH)$ 牢笼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442836510052504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439771224371392,"gmtCreate":1748394507193,"gmtModify":1748395908949,"author":{"id":"4205068129724230","authorId":"4205068129724230","name":"鸣涛","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4205068129724230","authorIdStr":"4205068129724230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YB\">$元保(YB)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YB\">$元保(YB)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$元保(YB)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3f28ac83f99bd10f2dd65b0d6f144e","width":"1112","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/435662715134504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}