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2025-11-28
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谷歌TPU抢英伟达GPU生意：份额肯定会降，但不是瞬间发生
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20:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谷歌TPU抢英伟达GPU生意：份额肯定会降，但不是瞬间发生","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586787887","media":"智通财经网","summary":"大语言模型竞争是一场马拉松。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>几乎是在一夜之间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>TPU的大名人尽皆知。</p><p>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>干翻<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>”的说法从华尔街传播到了全世界，导致英伟达不得不主动回应，表示自己的GPU目前为止依然遥遥领先。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3d1e1b8577257e5336e5b3ddc773a1\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"241\"/></p><p>美银在最新发布的研究报告<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603194\">中力</a>挺英伟达。<strong>美银承认英伟达的市场份额将从85%回落到75%左右，但份额变化将逐步发生。短期内，供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。</strong></p><p>美银判断谷歌的TPU加剧了AI加速器领域的竞争，但考虑到行业整体处于增长浪潮中，维持英伟达、博通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>“买入”投资评级。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6830a8d455ed4da36403af47580ba1fe\" tg-width=\"426\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>大语言模型竞争是一场马拉松</strong></p><p>美银在研报中写道：AI行业近期动作频频，谷歌推出Gemini 3模型后，Anthropic紧接着低调发布Claude Opus 4.5模型，声称在编码、智能代理及问题解决等关键任务上优于Gemini 3。</p><p>预计OpenAI、xAI等头部模型开发商将在未来数月内推出竞品。需注意的是，大型语言模型（LLM）的竞争是一场长期马拉松，当前的市场格局并不代表未来的份额走向——2025年1月排名第一的DeepSeek，目前已跌至排行榜第17位。</p><p>谷歌近十年来一直在研发定制化TPU，据其披露，Gemini 2和Gemini 3模型的训练“100%依赖TPU”，而其公共云业务主要使用英伟达GPU。</p><p>近期有消息称，谷歌或于2026年向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>出租TPU，并可能在2027年推进本地部署（Meta及其他潜在客户）。尽管两家公司尚未对此类交易发表官方评论，但若消息属实，将加剧Meta现有GPU供应商（英伟达、超微）的竞争压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6830a8d455ed4da36403af47580ba1fe\" tg-width=\"426\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>市场份额演变逻辑</strong></p><p>英伟达当前市场份额超85%，预计将逐步回落至75%左右的常态化水平，原因是更多客户将开发定制芯片以适配多样化的训练/推理任务。</p><p>美银认为，英伟达商用GPU仍具优势：现货供应便捷、支持多云部署、英伟达拥有完整的软件生态和开发者群体，且覆盖无法自主研发定制芯片的主权基金及企业本地部署客户，TAM范围更广。</p><p>定制芯片的适用场景有限：虽能降低谷歌、Meta等内部工作量巨大的客户的特定任务成本，但在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>Azure、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>AWS等公共云及100余家新兴云厂商中实用性较低——这类场景对灵活性要求极高，这也是谷歌公共云仍采用GPU的核心原因。</p><p>份额变化将逐步发生：短期内供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6830a8d455ed4da36403af47580ba1fe\" tg-width=\"426\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>三大公司目标价</strong></p><p>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微</a>（AMD）目标价300美元</p><p>基于2027财年非公认会计准则EPS的32倍市盈率，处于其历史14-55倍区间中部，合理性在于AI业务增长及CPU份额提升，抵消了周期性嵌入式/主机游戏市场的缓慢增长。</p><p>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>（AVGO）目标价400美元</p><p>基于2026财年37倍市盈率，处于其历史10-38倍区间上端，符合高增长计算厂商1-2倍PEG估值框架，合理性在于双位数EPS增长及半导体行业领先的盈利能力、自由现金流生成能力和回报率。</p><p>3. 英伟达（NVDA）目标价275美元</p><p>基于2027财年剔除现金后的28倍市盈率，处于其历史25-56倍前瞻市盈率区间内，合理性在于其在快速增长的AI计算/网络市场的领先份额，抵消了全球AI项目的波动性、游戏市场的周期性及电力获取相关担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdd7bbffc2aa163daaf7bc2869550b73\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"766\"/></p></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌TPU抢英伟达GPU生意：份额肯定会降，但不是瞬间发生\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-28 20:48 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128205508a4c07e17&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>几乎是在一夜之间，谷歌TPU的大名人尽皆知。“谷歌干翻英伟达”的说法从华尔街传播到了全世界，导致英伟达不得不主动回应，表示自己的GPU目前为止依然遥遥领先。美银在最新发布的研究报告中力挺英伟达。美银承认英伟达的市场份额将从85%回落到75%左右，但份额变化将逐步发生。短期内，供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。美银判断谷歌的TPU加剧了AI加速器领域的竞争，但考虑到行业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128205508a4c07e17&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a072916e50e051d9d07f8ac86cb8c47","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128205508a4c07e17&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586787887","content_text":"几乎是在一夜之间，谷歌TPU的大名人尽皆知。“谷歌干翻英伟达”的说法从华尔街传播到了全世界，导致英伟达不得不主动回应，表示自己的GPU目前为止依然遥遥领先。美银在最新发布的研究报告中力挺英伟达。美银承认英伟达的市场份额将从85%回落到75%左右，但份额变化将逐步发生。短期内，供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。美银判断谷歌的TPU加剧了AI加速器领域的竞争，但考虑到行业整体处于增长浪潮中，维持英伟达、博通、AMD“买入”投资评级。大语言模型竞争是一场马拉松美银在研报中写道：AI行业近期动作频频，谷歌推出Gemini 3模型后，Anthropic紧接着低调发布Claude Opus 4.5模型，声称在编码、智能代理及问题解决等关键任务上优于Gemini 3。预计OpenAI、xAI等头部模型开发商将在未来数月内推出竞品。需注意的是，大型语言模型（LLM）的竞争是一场长期马拉松，当前的市场格局并不代表未来的份额走向——2025年1月排名第一的DeepSeek，目前已跌至排行榜第17位。谷歌近十年来一直在研发定制化TPU，据其披露，Gemini 2和Gemini 3模型的训练“100%依赖TPU”，而其公共云业务主要使用英伟达GPU。近期有消息称，谷歌或于2026年向Meta出租TPU，并可能在2027年推进本地部署（Meta及其他潜在客户）。尽管两家公司尚未对此类交易发表官方评论，但若消息属实，将加剧Meta现有GPU供应商（英伟达、超微）的竞争压力。市场份额演变逻辑英伟达当前市场份额超85%，预计将逐步回落至75%左右的常态化水平，原因是更多客户将开发定制芯片以适配多样化的训练/推理任务。美银认为，英伟达商用GPU仍具优势：现货供应便捷、支持多云部署、英伟达拥有完整的软件生态和开发者群体，且覆盖无法自主研发定制芯片的主权基金及企业本地部署客户，TAM范围更广。定制芯片的适用场景有限：虽能降低谷歌、Meta等内部工作量巨大的客户的特定任务成本，但在微软Azure、亚马逊AWS等公共云及100余家新兴云厂商中实用性较低——这类场景对灵活性要求极高，这也是谷歌公共云仍采用GPU的核心原因。份额变化将逐步发生：短期内供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。三大公司目标价1. 超微（AMD）目标价300美元基于2027财年非公认会计准则EPS的32倍市盈率，处于其历史14-55倍区间中部，合理性在于AI业务增长及CPU份额提升，抵消了周期性嵌入式/主机游戏市场的缓慢增长。2. 博通（AVGO）目标价400美元基于2026财年37倍市盈率，处于其历史10-38倍区间上端，符合高增长计算厂商1-2倍PEG估值框架，合理性在于双位数EPS增长及半导体行业领先的盈利能力、自由现金流生成能力和回报率。3. 英伟达（NVDA）目标价275美元基于2027财年剔除现金后的28倍市盈率，处于其历史25-56倍前瞻市盈率区间内，合理性在于其在快速增长的AI计算/网络市场的领先份额，抵消了全球AI项目的波动性、游戏市场的周期性及电力获取相关担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":2,"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":505138480501032,"gmtCreate":1764343566753,"gmtModify":1764343913510,"author":{"id":"4204896106759852","authorId":"4204896106759852","name":"6fly","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4204896106759852","authorIdStr":"4204896106759852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505138480501032","repostId":"2586787887","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2586787887","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764334087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586787887?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-28 20:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谷歌TPU抢英伟达GPU生意：份额肯定会降，但不是瞬间发生","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586787887","media":"智通财经网","summary":"大语言模型竞争是一场马拉松。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>几乎是在一夜之间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>TPU的大名人尽皆知。</p><p>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>干翻<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>”的说法从华尔街传播到了全世界，导致英伟达不得不主动回应，表示自己的GPU目前为止依然遥遥领先。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3d1e1b8577257e5336e5b3ddc773a1\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"241\"/></p><p>美银在最新发布的研究报告<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603194\">中力</a>挺英伟达。<strong>美银承认英伟达的市场份额将从85%回落到75%左右，但份额变化将逐步发生。短期内，供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。</strong></p><p>美银判断谷歌的TPU加剧了AI加速器领域的竞争，但考虑到行业整体处于增长浪潮中，维持英伟达、博通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>“买入”投资评级。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6830a8d455ed4da36403af47580ba1fe\" tg-width=\"426\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>大语言模型竞争是一场马拉松</strong></p><p>美银在研报中写道：AI行业近期动作频频，谷歌推出Gemini 3模型后，Anthropic紧接着低调发布Claude Opus 4.5模型，声称在编码、智能代理及问题解决等关键任务上优于Gemini 3。</p><p>预计OpenAI、xAI等头部模型开发商将在未来数月内推出竞品。需注意的是，大型语言模型（LLM）的竞争是一场长期马拉松，当前的市场格局并不代表未来的份额走向——2025年1月排名第一的DeepSeek，目前已跌至排行榜第17位。</p><p>谷歌近十年来一直在研发定制化TPU，据其披露，Gemini 2和Gemini 3模型的训练“100%依赖TPU”，而其公共云业务主要使用英伟达GPU。</p><p>近期有消息称，谷歌或于2026年向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>出租TPU，并可能在2027年推进本地部署（Meta及其他潜在客户）。尽管两家公司尚未对此类交易发表官方评论，但若消息属实，将加剧Meta现有GPU供应商（英伟达、超微）的竞争压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6830a8d455ed4da36403af47580ba1fe\" tg-width=\"426\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>市场份额演变逻辑</strong></p><p>英伟达当前市场份额超85%，预计将逐步回落至75%左右的常态化水平，原因是更多客户将开发定制芯片以适配多样化的训练/推理任务。</p><p>美银认为，英伟达商用GPU仍具优势：现货供应便捷、支持多云部署、英伟达拥有完整的软件生态和开发者群体，且覆盖无法自主研发定制芯片的主权基金及企业本地部署客户，TAM范围更广。</p><p>定制芯片的适用场景有限：虽能降低谷歌、Meta等内部工作量巨大的客户的特定任务成本，但在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>Azure、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>AWS等公共云及100余家新兴云厂商中实用性较低——这类场景对灵活性要求极高，这也是谷歌公共云仍采用GPU的核心原因。</p><p>份额变化将逐步发生：短期内供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6830a8d455ed4da36403af47580ba1fe\" tg-width=\"426\" tg-height=\"421\"/></p><p><strong>三大公司目标价</strong></p><p>1. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微</a>（AMD）目标价300美元</p><p>基于2027财年非公认会计准则EPS的32倍市盈率，处于其历史14-55倍区间中部，合理性在于AI业务增长及CPU份额提升，抵消了周期性嵌入式/主机游戏市场的缓慢增长。</p><p>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>（AVGO）目标价400美元</p><p>基于2026财年37倍市盈率，处于其历史10-38倍区间上端，符合高增长计算厂商1-2倍PEG估值框架，合理性在于双位数EPS增长及半导体行业领先的盈利能力、自由现金流生成能力和回报率。</p><p>3. 英伟达（NVDA）目标价275美元</p><p>基于2027财年剔除现金后的28倍市盈率，处于其历史25-56倍前瞻市盈率区间内，合理性在于其在快速增长的AI计算/网络市场的领先份额，抵消了全球AI项目的波动性、游戏市场的周期性及电力获取相关担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdd7bbffc2aa163daaf7bc2869550b73\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"766\"/></p></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-28 20:48 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128205508a4c07e17&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>几乎是在一夜之间，谷歌TPU的大名人尽皆知。“谷歌干翻英伟达”的说法从华尔街传播到了全世界，导致英伟达不得不主动回应，表示自己的GPU目前为止依然遥遥领先。美银在最新发布的研究报告中力挺英伟达。美银承认英伟达的市场份额将从85%回落到75%左右，但份额变化将逐步发生。短期内，供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。美银判断谷歌的TPU加剧了AI加速器领域的竞争，但考虑到行业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128205508a4c07e17&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a072916e50e051d9d07f8ac86cb8c47","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251128205508a4c07e17&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586787887","content_text":"几乎是在一夜之间，谷歌TPU的大名人尽皆知。“谷歌干翻英伟达”的说法从华尔街传播到了全世界，导致英伟达不得不主动回应，表示自己的GPU目前为止依然遥遥领先。美银在最新发布的研究报告中力挺英伟达。美银承认英伟达的市场份额将从85%回落到75%左右，但份额变化将逐步发生。短期内，供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。美银判断谷歌的TPU加剧了AI加速器领域的竞争，但考虑到行业整体处于增长浪潮中，维持英伟达、博通、AMD“买入”投资评级。大语言模型竞争是一场马拉松美银在研报中写道：AI行业近期动作频频，谷歌推出Gemini 3模型后，Anthropic紧接着低调发布Claude Opus 4.5模型，声称在编码、智能代理及问题解决等关键任务上优于Gemini 3。预计OpenAI、xAI等头部模型开发商将在未来数月内推出竞品。需注意的是，大型语言模型（LLM）的竞争是一场长期马拉松，当前的市场格局并不代表未来的份额走向——2025年1月排名第一的DeepSeek，目前已跌至排行榜第17位。谷歌近十年来一直在研发定制化TPU，据其披露，Gemini 2和Gemini 3模型的训练“100%依赖TPU”，而其公共云业务主要使用英伟达GPU。近期有消息称，谷歌或于2026年向Meta出租TPU，并可能在2027年推进本地部署（Meta及其他潜在客户）。尽管两家公司尚未对此类交易发表官方评论，但若消息属实，将加剧Meta现有GPU供应商（英伟达、超微）的竞争压力。市场份额演变逻辑英伟达当前市场份额超85%，预计将逐步回落至75%左右的常态化水平，原因是更多客户将开发定制芯片以适配多样化的训练/推理任务。美银认为，英伟达商用GPU仍具优势：现货供应便捷、支持多云部署、英伟达拥有完整的软件生态和开发者群体，且覆盖无法自主研发定制芯片的主权基金及企业本地部署客户，TAM范围更广。定制芯片的适用场景有限：虽能降低谷歌、Meta等内部工作量巨大的客户的特定任务成本，但在微软Azure、亚马逊AWS等公共云及100余家新兴云厂商中实用性较低——这类场景对灵活性要求极高，这也是谷歌公共云仍采用GPU的核心原因。份额变化将逐步发生：短期内供应链紧张及英伟达的规模优势，使得竞争对手难以快速抢占大量份额。三大公司目标价1. 超微（AMD）目标价300美元基于2027财年非公认会计准则EPS的32倍市盈率，处于其历史14-55倍区间中部，合理性在于AI业务增长及CPU份额提升，抵消了周期性嵌入式/主机游戏市场的缓慢增长。2. 博通（AVGO）目标价400美元基于2026财年37倍市盈率，处于其历史10-38倍区间上端，符合高增长计算厂商1-2倍PEG估值框架，合理性在于双位数EPS增长及半导体行业领先的盈利能力、自由现金流生成能力和回报率。3. 英伟达（NVDA）目标价275美元基于2027财年剔除现金后的28倍市盈率，处于其历史25-56倍前瞻市盈率区间内，合理性在于其在快速增长的AI计算/网络市场的领先份额，抵消了全球AI项目的波动性、游戏市场的周期性及电力获取相关担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":2,"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
