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","text":"$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544004310720792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":527039530656264,"gmtCreate":1769646000162,"gmtModify":1769646002580,"author":{"id":"4204868670659262","authorId":"4204868670659262","name":"长胜永久","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952aa9a4bdc477b4b20a1adcd9a2919f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204868670659262","idStr":"4204868670659262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"左进右出","listText":"左进右出","text":"左进右出","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527039530656264","repostId":"2606716580","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606716580","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1769605736,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606716580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-28 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"白银面临\"交割失败\"危机？3月或成贵金属\"关键时刻\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606716580","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"1月COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter警告，若如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>贵金属市场正面临一场潜在的交割危机。</p><p>资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称，<strong>纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。</strong></p><p>异常的交割需求已经显现。据Holter透露，<strong>在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至200万盎司。随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。</strong></p><p>这一警告正值白银市场经历史无前例的涨势之际。白银价格2025年迄今已飙升154%，仅1月便上涨约40%，远超同期股市表现。瑞银策略师本周已向客户示警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅"失控"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/96783686c1c4b0b731b35a1dfb4637bc\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1805752455\">一旦交割失败，金融体系面临崩溃风险？</h2><p>COMEX白银市场正面临前所未有的实物交割压力。Holter指出，<strong>1月作为非交割月出现4000万盎司的交割申请属于极端异常现象，这预示着3月主要交割月可能出现更大规模的挤兑。</strong></p><p><strong>"如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，合约价值将归零，</strong>"Holter表示。他强调，交割违约将彻底否定COMEX的定价权威性，因为无法兑现的合约不具备任何价值。</p><p>更严重的是<strong>，白银交割失败将立即传导至黄金市场。</strong>Holter警告称<strong>，由于黄金本质上是"反美元"或"反美国国债"资产，黄金市场的违约将直接冲击信用市场，进而威胁整个金融体系的稳定性。</strong></p><p>目前COMEX登记可交割的白银库存约为1.1亿至1.2亿盎司，但市场对这些库存是否存在重复抵押或其他权益负担存疑。若3月交割需求超过可用库存，市场将面临1980年白银星期四事件以来最严重的流动性危机。</p><p>Holter对交割违约的后果描绘了一幅严峻图景。他预测，<strong>若2026年3月出现交割失败，将引发货币归零和整个金融体系的崩溃。</strong></p><p>"实体经济依赖信用运转，你接触的一切、你做的一切，都涉及信用的参与，"Holter表示。如果信用变得无法获取，实体经济将完全停摆。</p><p>这一警告并非危言耸听。贵金属市场的定价机制长期依赖纸面合约，实物交割比例极低。一旦市场对纸面合约的信任崩塌，投资者将蜂拥要求实物交割，而交易所库存远不足以满足所有合约的交割需求。</p><p>考虑到美国200万亿美元的总债务和承诺规模，金融体系对信用的依赖已达到历史极值。任何关键市场的信任危机都可能触发连锁反应，而贵金属市场恰恰是整个货币体系信用的最后锚点。</p><h2 id=\"id_2371812444\">价格预测"可笑地低估"</h2><p>尽管白银价格已突破每盎司100美元，Holter认为市场仍处于涨势早期阶段。他表示，<strong>当前所有价格预测——包括数年前提出的每盎司600美元目标——最终都将被证明"可笑地低估"。</strong></p><p>知名白银分析师Peter Krauth同样持乐观态度，<strong>预计在即将到来的"狂热阶段"中，银价有望冲击每盎司300美元。</strong>Krauth认为，每盎司50美元已成为新的价格底部，金银比率的剧烈调整将成为推升银价的核心动力。</p><p>Holter从货币角度提供了更极端的估值框架。他指出，<strong>若以美国联邦政府38万亿美元债务计算，用8000吨黄金储备作为支撑，金价应达到每盎司20万美元。这一逻辑同样适用于白银的重新定价。</strong></p><p>部分做空贵金属的大型交易商和银行已陷入财务困境。Holter表示，持续上涨的金属价格——尤其是白银价格——正在对这些机构造成严重压力，这可能加剧市场的不稳定性。</p><p>白银的强劲表现根植于基本面的深层失衡。作为兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，白银正受到多重需求的挤压。</p><p>工业需求持续强劲，特别是在太阳能、电动汽车和电子产品等领域。与此同时，投资需求也在激增，投资者将白银视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。</p><p>供应端则面临结构性约束。白银主要作为铜、铅、锌等基本金属开采的副产品，其产量难以快速响应价格信号。这种供应刚性在需求激增时容易引发价格剧烈波动。</p><p>Krauth强调，支撑涨势持续"相当长一段时间"的所有要素均已具备。尽管短期存在回调风险，但中长期趋势已经确立。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n白银面临\"交割失败\"危机？3月或成贵金属\"关键时刻\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-28 21:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>贵金属市场正面临一场潜在的交割危机。</p><p>资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称，<strong>纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。</strong></p><p>异常的交割需求已经显现。据Holter透露，<strong>在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至200万盎司。随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。</strong></p><p>这一警告正值白银市场经历史无前例的涨势之际。白银价格2025年迄今已飙升154%，仅1月便上涨约40%，远超同期股市表现。瑞银策略师本周已向客户示警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅"失控"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/96783686c1c4b0b731b35a1dfb4637bc\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1805752455\">一旦交割失败，金融体系面临崩溃风险？</h2><p>COMEX白银市场正面临前所未有的实物交割压力。Holter指出，<strong>1月作为非交割月出现4000万盎司的交割申请属于极端异常现象，这预示着3月主要交割月可能出现更大规模的挤兑。</strong></p><p><strong>"如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，合约价值将归零，</strong>"Holter表示。他强调，交割违约将彻底否定COMEX的定价权威性，因为无法兑现的合约不具备任何价值。</p><p>更严重的是<strong>，白银交割失败将立即传导至黄金市场。</strong>Holter警告称<strong>，由于黄金本质上是"反美元"或"反美国国债"资产，黄金市场的违约将直接冲击信用市场，进而威胁整个金融体系的稳定性。</strong></p><p>目前COMEX登记可交割的白银库存约为1.1亿至1.2亿盎司，但市场对这些库存是否存在重复抵押或其他权益负担存疑。若3月交割需求超过可用库存，市场将面临1980年白银星期四事件以来最严重的流动性危机。</p><p>Holter对交割违约的后果描绘了一幅严峻图景。他预测，<strong>若2026年3月出现交割失败，将引发货币归零和整个金融体系的崩溃。</strong></p><p>"实体经济依赖信用运转，你接触的一切、你做的一切，都涉及信用的参与，"Holter表示。如果信用变得无法获取，实体经济将完全停摆。</p><p>这一警告并非危言耸听。贵金属市场的定价机制长期依赖纸面合约，实物交割比例极低。一旦市场对纸面合约的信任崩塌，投资者将蜂拥要求实物交割，而交易所库存远不足以满足所有合约的交割需求。</p><p>考虑到美国200万亿美元的总债务和承诺规模，金融体系对信用的依赖已达到历史极值。任何关键市场的信任危机都可能触发连锁反应，而贵金属市场恰恰是整个货币体系信用的最后锚点。</p><h2 id=\"id_2371812444\">价格预测"可笑地低估"</h2><p>尽管白银价格已突破每盎司100美元，Holter认为市场仍处于涨势早期阶段。他表示，<strong>当前所有价格预测——包括数年前提出的每盎司600美元目标——最终都将被证明"可笑地低估"。</strong></p><p>知名白银分析师Peter Krauth同样持乐观态度，<strong>预计在即将到来的"狂热阶段"中，银价有望冲击每盎司300美元。</strong>Krauth认为，每盎司50美元已成为新的价格底部，金银比率的剧烈调整将成为推升银价的核心动力。</p><p>Holter从货币角度提供了更极端的估值框架。他指出，<strong>若以美国联邦政府38万亿美元债务计算，用8000吨黄金储备作为支撑，金价应达到每盎司20万美元。这一逻辑同样适用于白银的重新定价。</strong></p><p>部分做空贵金属的大型交易商和银行已陷入财务困境。Holter表示，持续上涨的金属价格——尤其是白银价格——正在对这些机构造成严重压力，这可能加剧市场的不稳定性。</p><p>白银的强劲表现根植于基本面的深层失衡。作为兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，白银正受到多重需求的挤压。</p><p>工业需求持续强劲，特别是在太阳能、电动汽车和电子产品等领域。与此同时，投资需求也在激增，投资者将白银视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。</p><p>供应端则面临结构性约束。白银主要作为铜、铅、锌等基本金属开采的副产品，其产量难以快速响应价格信号。这种供应刚性在需求激增时容易引发价格剧烈波动。</p><p>Krauth强调，支撑涨势持续"相当长一段时间"的所有要素均已具备。尽管短期存在回调风险，但中长期趋势已经确立。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26334bf6f4e25ca891e786d2e0bdfb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764384","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2606716580","content_text":"贵金属市场正面临一场潜在的交割危机。资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。异常的交割需求已经显现。据Holter透露，在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至200万盎司。随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。这一警告正值白银市场经历史无前例的涨势之际。白银价格2025年迄今已飙升154%，仅1月便上涨约40%，远超同期股市表现。瑞银策略师本周已向客户示警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅\"失控\"。一旦交割失败，金融体系面临崩溃风险？COMEX白银市场正面临前所未有的实物交割压力。Holter指出，1月作为非交割月出现4000万盎司的交割申请属于极端异常现象，这预示着3月主要交割月可能出现更大规模的挤兑。\"如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，合约价值将归零，\"Holter表示。他强调，交割违约将彻底否定COMEX的定价权威性，因为无法兑现的合约不具备任何价值。更严重的是，白银交割失败将立即传导至黄金市场。Holter警告称，由于黄金本质上是\"反美元\"或\"反美国国债\"资产，黄金市场的违约将直接冲击信用市场，进而威胁整个金融体系的稳定性。目前COMEX登记可交割的白银库存约为1.1亿至1.2亿盎司，但市场对这些库存是否存在重复抵押或其他权益负担存疑。若3月交割需求超过可用库存，市场将面临1980年白银星期四事件以来最严重的流动性危机。Holter对交割违约的后果描绘了一幅严峻图景。他预测，若2026年3月出现交割失败，将引发货币归零和整个金融体系的崩溃。\"实体经济依赖信用运转，你接触的一切、你做的一切，都涉及信用的参与，\"Holter表示。如果信用变得无法获取，实体经济将完全停摆。这一警告并非危言耸听。贵金属市场的定价机制长期依赖纸面合约，实物交割比例极低。一旦市场对纸面合约的信任崩塌，投资者将蜂拥要求实物交割，而交易所库存远不足以满足所有合约的交割需求。考虑到美国200万亿美元的总债务和承诺规模，金融体系对信用的依赖已达到历史极值。任何关键市场的信任危机都可能触发连锁反应，而贵金属市场恰恰是整个货币体系信用的最后锚点。价格预测\"可笑地低估\"尽管白银价格已突破每盎司100美元，Holter认为市场仍处于涨势早期阶段。他表示，当前所有价格预测——包括数年前提出的每盎司600美元目标——最终都将被证明\"可笑地低估\"。知名白银分析师Peter Krauth同样持乐观态度，预计在即将到来的\"狂热阶段\"中，银价有望冲击每盎司300美元。Krauth认为，每盎司50美元已成为新的价格底部，金银比率的剧烈调整将成为推升银价的核心动力。Holter从货币角度提供了更极端的估值框架。他指出，若以美国联邦政府38万亿美元债务计算，用8000吨黄金储备作为支撑，金价应达到每盎司20万美元。这一逻辑同样适用于白银的重新定价。部分做空贵金属的大型交易商和银行已陷入财务困境。Holter表示，持续上涨的金属价格——尤其是白银价格——正在对这些机构造成严重压力，这可能加剧市场的不稳定性。白银的强劲表现根植于基本面的深层失衡。作为兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，白银正受到多重需求的挤压。工业需求持续强劲，特别是在太阳能、电动汽车和电子产品等领域。与此同时，投资需求也在激增，投资者将白银视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。供应端则面临结构性约束。白银主要作为铜、铅、锌等基本金属开采的副产品，其产量难以快速响应价格信号。这种供应刚性在需求激增时容易引发价格剧烈波动。Krauth强调，支撑涨势持续\"相当长一段时间\"的所有要素均已具备。尽管短期存在回调风险，但中长期趋势已经确立。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SImain":1.87,"QImain":2,"SI2603":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526818420285576,"gmtCreate":1769595155379,"gmtModify":1769595156843,"author":{"id":"4204868670659262","authorId":"4204868670659262","name":"长胜永久","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952aa9a4bdc477b4b20a1adcd9a2919f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204868670659262","idStr":"4204868670659262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDCNH.FOREX\">$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDCNH.FOREX\">$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473963816878216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":563049476911472,"gmtCreate":1778491800334,"gmtModify":1778491802606,"author":{"id":"4204868670659262","authorId":"4204868670659262","name":"长胜永久","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952aa9a4bdc477b4b20a1adcd9a2919f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204868670659262","idStr":"4204868670659262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWY\">$韩国ETF-iShares MSCI(EWY)$</a> 看多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWY\">$韩国ETF-iShares MSCI(EWY)$</a> 看多","text":"$韩国ETF-iShares MSCI(EWY)$ 看多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563049476911472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527039530656264,"gmtCreate":1769646000162,"gmtModify":1769646002580,"author":{"id":"4204868670659262","authorId":"4204868670659262","name":"长胜永久","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952aa9a4bdc477b4b20a1adcd9a2919f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204868670659262","idStr":"4204868670659262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"左进右出","listText":"左进右出","text":"左进右出","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527039530656264","repostId":"2606716580","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606716580","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1769605736,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606716580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-28 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"白银面临\"交割失败\"危机？3月或成贵金属\"关键时刻\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606716580","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"1月COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter警告，若如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>贵金属市场正面临一场潜在的交割危机。</p><p>资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称，<strong>纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。</strong></p><p>异常的交割需求已经显现。据Holter透露，<strong>在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至200万盎司。随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。</strong></p><p>这一警告正值白银市场经历史无前例的涨势之际。白银价格2025年迄今已飙升154%，仅1月便上涨约40%，远超同期股市表现。瑞银策略师本周已向客户示警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅"失控"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/96783686c1c4b0b731b35a1dfb4637bc\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1805752455\">一旦交割失败，金融体系面临崩溃风险？</h2><p>COMEX白银市场正面临前所未有的实物交割压力。Holter指出，<strong>1月作为非交割月出现4000万盎司的交割申请属于极端异常现象，这预示着3月主要交割月可能出现更大规模的挤兑。</strong></p><p><strong>"如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，合约价值将归零，</strong>"Holter表示。他强调，交割违约将彻底否定COMEX的定价权威性，因为无法兑现的合约不具备任何价值。</p><p>更严重的是<strong>，白银交割失败将立即传导至黄金市场。</strong>Holter警告称<strong>，由于黄金本质上是"反美元"或"反美国国债"资产，黄金市场的违约将直接冲击信用市场，进而威胁整个金融体系的稳定性。</strong></p><p>目前COMEX登记可交割的白银库存约为1.1亿至1.2亿盎司，但市场对这些库存是否存在重复抵押或其他权益负担存疑。若3月交割需求超过可用库存，市场将面临1980年白银星期四事件以来最严重的流动性危机。</p><p>Holter对交割违约的后果描绘了一幅严峻图景。他预测，<strong>若2026年3月出现交割失败，将引发货币归零和整个金融体系的崩溃。</strong></p><p>"实体经济依赖信用运转，你接触的一切、你做的一切，都涉及信用的参与，"Holter表示。如果信用变得无法获取，实体经济将完全停摆。</p><p>这一警告并非危言耸听。贵金属市场的定价机制长期依赖纸面合约，实物交割比例极低。一旦市场对纸面合约的信任崩塌，投资者将蜂拥要求实物交割，而交易所库存远不足以满足所有合约的交割需求。</p><p>考虑到美国200万亿美元的总债务和承诺规模，金融体系对信用的依赖已达到历史极值。任何关键市场的信任危机都可能触发连锁反应，而贵金属市场恰恰是整个货币体系信用的最后锚点。</p><h2 id=\"id_2371812444\">价格预测"可笑地低估"</h2><p>尽管白银价格已突破每盎司100美元，Holter认为市场仍处于涨势早期阶段。他表示，<strong>当前所有价格预测——包括数年前提出的每盎司600美元目标——最终都将被证明"可笑地低估"。</strong></p><p>知名白银分析师Peter Krauth同样持乐观态度，<strong>预计在即将到来的"狂热阶段"中，银价有望冲击每盎司300美元。</strong>Krauth认为，每盎司50美元已成为新的价格底部，金银比率的剧烈调整将成为推升银价的核心动力。</p><p>Holter从货币角度提供了更极端的估值框架。他指出，<strong>若以美国联邦政府38万亿美元债务计算，用8000吨黄金储备作为支撑，金价应达到每盎司20万美元。这一逻辑同样适用于白银的重新定价。</strong></p><p>部分做空贵金属的大型交易商和银行已陷入财务困境。Holter表示，持续上涨的金属价格——尤其是白银价格——正在对这些机构造成严重压力，这可能加剧市场的不稳定性。</p><p>白银的强劲表现根植于基本面的深层失衡。作为兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，白银正受到多重需求的挤压。</p><p>工业需求持续强劲，特别是在太阳能、电动汽车和电子产品等领域。与此同时，投资需求也在激增，投资者将白银视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。</p><p>供应端则面临结构性约束。白银主要作为铜、铅、锌等基本金属开采的副产品，其产量难以快速响应价格信号。这种供应刚性在需求激增时容易引发价格剧烈波动。</p><p>Krauth强调，支撑涨势持续"相当长一段时间"的所有要素均已具备。尽管短期存在回调风险，但中长期趋势已经确立。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>白银面临\"交割失败\"危机？3月或成贵金属\"关键时刻\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n白银面临\"交割失败\"危机？3月或成贵金属\"关键时刻\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-28 21:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>贵金属市场正面临一场潜在的交割危机。</p><p>资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称，<strong>纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。</strong></p><p>异常的交割需求已经显现。据Holter透露，<strong>在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至200万盎司。随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。</strong></p><p>这一警告正值白银市场经历史无前例的涨势之际。白银价格2025年迄今已飙升154%，仅1月便上涨约40%，远超同期股市表现。瑞银策略师本周已向客户示警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅"失控"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/96783686c1c4b0b731b35a1dfb4637bc\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1805752455\">一旦交割失败，金融体系面临崩溃风险？</h2><p>COMEX白银市场正面临前所未有的实物交割压力。Holter指出，<strong>1月作为非交割月出现4000万盎司的交割申请属于极端异常现象，这预示着3月主要交割月可能出现更大规模的挤兑。</strong></p><p><strong>"如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，合约价值将归零，</strong>"Holter表示。他强调，交割违约将彻底否定COMEX的定价权威性，因为无法兑现的合约不具备任何价值。</p><p>更严重的是<strong>，白银交割失败将立即传导至黄金市场。</strong>Holter警告称<strong>，由于黄金本质上是"反美元"或"反美国国债"资产，黄金市场的违约将直接冲击信用市场，进而威胁整个金融体系的稳定性。</strong></p><p>目前COMEX登记可交割的白银库存约为1.1亿至1.2亿盎司，但市场对这些库存是否存在重复抵押或其他权益负担存疑。若3月交割需求超过可用库存，市场将面临1980年白银星期四事件以来最严重的流动性危机。</p><p>Holter对交割违约的后果描绘了一幅严峻图景。他预测，<strong>若2026年3月出现交割失败，将引发货币归零和整个金融体系的崩溃。</strong></p><p>"实体经济依赖信用运转，你接触的一切、你做的一切，都涉及信用的参与，"Holter表示。如果信用变得无法获取，实体经济将完全停摆。</p><p>这一警告并非危言耸听。贵金属市场的定价机制长期依赖纸面合约，实物交割比例极低。一旦市场对纸面合约的信任崩塌，投资者将蜂拥要求实物交割，而交易所库存远不足以满足所有合约的交割需求。</p><p>考虑到美国200万亿美元的总债务和承诺规模，金融体系对信用的依赖已达到历史极值。任何关键市场的信任危机都可能触发连锁反应，而贵金属市场恰恰是整个货币体系信用的最后锚点。</p><h2 id=\"id_2371812444\">价格预测"可笑地低估"</h2><p>尽管白银价格已突破每盎司100美元，Holter认为市场仍处于涨势早期阶段。他表示，<strong>当前所有价格预测——包括数年前提出的每盎司600美元目标——最终都将被证明"可笑地低估"。</strong></p><p>知名白银分析师Peter Krauth同样持乐观态度，<strong>预计在即将到来的"狂热阶段"中，银价有望冲击每盎司300美元。</strong>Krauth认为，每盎司50美元已成为新的价格底部，金银比率的剧烈调整将成为推升银价的核心动力。</p><p>Holter从货币角度提供了更极端的估值框架。他指出，<strong>若以美国联邦政府38万亿美元债务计算，用8000吨黄金储备作为支撑，金价应达到每盎司20万美元。这一逻辑同样适用于白银的重新定价。</strong></p><p>部分做空贵金属的大型交易商和银行已陷入财务困境。Holter表示，持续上涨的金属价格——尤其是白银价格——正在对这些机构造成严重压力，这可能加剧市场的不稳定性。</p><p>白银的强劲表现根植于基本面的深层失衡。作为兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，白银正受到多重需求的挤压。</p><p>工业需求持续强劲，特别是在太阳能、电动汽车和电子产品等领域。与此同时，投资需求也在激增，投资者将白银视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。</p><p>供应端则面临结构性约束。白银主要作为铜、铅、锌等基本金属开采的副产品，其产量难以快速响应价格信号。这种供应刚性在需求激增时容易引发价格剧烈波动。</p><p>Krauth强调，支撑涨势持续"相当长一段时间"的所有要素均已具备。尽管短期存在回调风险，但中长期趋势已经确立。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26334bf6f4e25ca891e786d2e0bdfb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764384","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2606716580","content_text":"贵金属市场正面临一场潜在的交割危机。资深贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。异常的交割需求已经显现。据Holter透露，在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至200万盎司。随着3月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。这一警告正值白银市场经历史无前例的涨势之际。白银价格2025年迄今已飙升154%，仅1月便上涨约40%，远超同期股市表现。瑞银策略师本周已向客户示警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅\"失控\"。一旦交割失败，金融体系面临崩溃风险？COMEX白银市场正面临前所未有的实物交割压力。Holter指出，1月作为非交割月出现4000万盎司的交割申请属于极端异常现象，这预示着3月主要交割月可能出现更大规模的挤兑。\"如果COMEX无法履行交割义务，合约价值将归零，\"Holter表示。他强调，交割违约将彻底否定COMEX的定价权威性，因为无法兑现的合约不具备任何价值。更严重的是，白银交割失败将立即传导至黄金市场。Holter警告称，由于黄金本质上是\"反美元\"或\"反美国国债\"资产，黄金市场的违约将直接冲击信用市场，进而威胁整个金融体系的稳定性。目前COMEX登记可交割的白银库存约为1.1亿至1.2亿盎司，但市场对这些库存是否存在重复抵押或其他权益负担存疑。若3月交割需求超过可用库存，市场将面临1980年白银星期四事件以来最严重的流动性危机。Holter对交割违约的后果描绘了一幅严峻图景。他预测，若2026年3月出现交割失败，将引发货币归零和整个金融体系的崩溃。\"实体经济依赖信用运转，你接触的一切、你做的一切，都涉及信用的参与，\"Holter表示。如果信用变得无法获取，实体经济将完全停摆。这一警告并非危言耸听。贵金属市场的定价机制长期依赖纸面合约，实物交割比例极低。一旦市场对纸面合约的信任崩塌，投资者将蜂拥要求实物交割，而交易所库存远不足以满足所有合约的交割需求。考虑到美国200万亿美元的总债务和承诺规模，金融体系对信用的依赖已达到历史极值。任何关键市场的信任危机都可能触发连锁反应，而贵金属市场恰恰是整个货币体系信用的最后锚点。价格预测\"可笑地低估\"尽管白银价格已突破每盎司100美元，Holter认为市场仍处于涨势早期阶段。他表示，当前所有价格预测——包括数年前提出的每盎司600美元目标——最终都将被证明\"可笑地低估\"。知名白银分析师Peter Krauth同样持乐观态度，预计在即将到来的\"狂热阶段\"中，银价有望冲击每盎司300美元。Krauth认为，每盎司50美元已成为新的价格底部，金银比率的剧烈调整将成为推升银价的核心动力。Holter从货币角度提供了更极端的估值框架。他指出，若以美国联邦政府38万亿美元债务计算，用8000吨黄金储备作为支撑，金价应达到每盎司20万美元。这一逻辑同样适用于白银的重新定价。部分做空贵金属的大型交易商和银行已陷入财务困境。Holter表示，持续上涨的金属价格——尤其是白银价格——正在对这些机构造成严重压力，这可能加剧市场的不稳定性。白银的强劲表现根植于基本面的深层失衡。作为兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，白银正受到多重需求的挤压。工业需求持续强劲，特别是在太阳能、电动汽车和电子产品等领域。与此同时，投资需求也在激增，投资者将白银视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具。供应端则面临结构性约束。白银主要作为铜、铅、锌等基本金属开采的副产品，其产量难以快速响应价格信号。这种供应刚性在需求激增时容易引发价格剧烈波动。Krauth强调，支撑涨势持续\"相当长一段时间\"的所有要素均已具备。尽管短期存在回调风险，但中长期趋势已经确立。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SImain":1.87,"QImain":2,"SI2603":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":561853107582896,"gmtCreate":1778202946674,"gmtModify":1778202948676,"author":{"id":"4204868670659262","authorId":"4204868670659262","name":"长胜永久","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952aa9a4bdc477b4b20a1adcd9a2919f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204868670659262","idStr":"4204868670659262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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