叁陆玖的个人主页 - 老虎社区

叁陆玖

叁陆玖

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IP属地：安徽

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3主题

0勋章

2025-09-08

$多邻国(DUOL)$ 买一点点等等看假装学习的人多了哈哈哈哈

2025-09-16

$两倍做多波动率指数期货ETF(UVIX)$ 再买我是**

01-20

Replying to @没有人比我更懂韭菜:怎么理解这里的大宗商品//@没有人比我更懂韭菜:闪迪的周期性极强...他卖的是大宗商品

2025-09-13

36+ 但是可能不如crcl和blsh亮眼。

2025-10-12

建国同志炒股自筹活动经费重创美元公信力也为国内群众制造进场时机不愧为饱经考验的资本主义战士

2025-09-22

没劲自己做自己的呗为了所谓对标自己的16都没了

雷军9月25日晚7点将举办第6次年度演讲！小米17系列同日发布

2025-09-05

$Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LLY ETF(LLYX)$ 做多比特币透支了出掉这个回点现金这个以后还有潜力的以后低一点再相见祝福大家

01-27

哈哈哈哈太坏了这帮人

01-26

[强] 挺详细

存储芯片，最大黑马

01-20

问题不大科技巨头摆在那里可以买

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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挺详细","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525975634654448","repostId":"2606935522","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606935522","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1769399634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606935522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-26 11:53","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"存储芯片，最大黑马","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606935522","media":"格隆汇","summary":"从追赶者到竞争者","content":"<p><strong>2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。</strong></p><p>这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。</p><p>更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。</p><p>这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。</p><h3 id=\"id_2899542882\">HMC的失利</h3><p>要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。</p><p>那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。</p><p>这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。</p><p>更致命的是时机判断。2013年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。</p><p>美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。</p><p>但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。</p><p>2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。</p><h3 id=\"id_3810015875\">HBM3E的转折</h3><p>真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。</p><p>前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。</p><p>2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。</p><p>这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。</p><p>2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。</p><p>但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。</p><p>更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。</p><h3 id=\"id_2205011960\">从卖内存到参与系统架构</h3><p>如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。</p><p>SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、OpenAI 以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。</p><p>在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a> 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。</p><p>与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。</p><p>这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。</p><h3 id=\"id_3085658045\">制程、产能与业务收缩</h3><p>技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。</p><p>在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。</p><p>在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。</p><p>与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。</p><p>从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。</p><p>与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。</p><h3 id=\"id_952301051\">从追赶者到竞争者</h3><p>随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。</p><p>目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。</p><p>多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。</p><p>不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。</p><p>为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。</p><p>与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。</p><p>综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。</p><p>但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 竞争中的上限。</p><h3 id=\"id_2042127808\">巅峰还是新起点？</h3><p>我们回到最初的问题：美光是否重返巅峰？</p><p>如果将“巅峰”定义为市场份额第一、技术绝对领先，那么答案显然是否定的。SK海力士和三星在HBM领域的先发优势、客户绑定深度以及产能规模，仍然是美光短期内难以逾越的壁垒。美光2025财年的财务表现虽然亮眼，但这更多是AI热潮下整个存储行业的红利，而非美光单独的结构性优势。</p><p>但如果将“巅峰”理解为重新确立关键竞争者的位置、建立可持续的技术与市场竞争力，那么美光确实正在经历一次深刻的战略重生。从HMC的惨痛失败到HBM3E的成功突围，从被动追随到主动参与系统架构设计，从泛化的产品组合到激进的业务聚焦，美光在过去五年完成的不仅是技术补课，更是对自身在AI时代存储产业中角色的重新定义。</p><p>美光当前的位置，或许更像是一个新的起点，而非传统意义上的巅峰回归。它已经证明了自己有能力在技术路线失误后实现战略校准，有决心通过激进的资源腾挪聚焦核心赛道，有实力在HBM等关键领域重新获得竞争资格。但要真正站上行业之巅，美光还需要在技术持续迭代、生态话语权构建、产能规模化扩张等维度，完成更长期的积累。</p><p>巅峰或许还很遥远，但至少，美光已经重新回到了通往巅峰的道路上。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>存储芯片，最大黑马</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储芯片，最大黑马\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 11:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4770a-60786256-b4e4-4139-badf-815fb3f4826c.jpg?guru_height=3866&guru_width=5791&guru_size=2465656","relate_stocks":{"LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2463028550.USD":"AB SICAV I AMERICAN MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) 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LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2606935522","content_text":"2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与三星：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。HMC的失利要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。更致命的是时机判断。2013年AMD和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和英特尔定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。HBM3E的转折真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。从卖内存到参与系统架构如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、谷歌、OpenAI 以及亚马逊 AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 Arm 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。制程、产能与业务收缩技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。从追赶者到竞争者随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；三星电子则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 竞争中的上限。巅峰还是新起点？我们回到最初的问题：美光是否重返巅峰？如果将“巅峰”定义为市场份额第一、技术绝对领先，那么答案显然是否定的。SK海力士和三星在HBM领域的先发优势、客户绑定深度以及产能规模，仍然是美光短期内难以逾越的壁垒。美光2025财年的财务表现虽然亮眼，但这更多是AI热潮下整个存储行业的红利，而非美光单独的结构性优势。但如果将“巅峰”理解为重新确立关键竞争者的位置、建立可持续的技术与市场竞争力，那么美光确实正在经历一次深刻的战略重生。从HMC的惨痛失败到HBM3E的成功突围，从被动追随到主动参与系统架构设计，从泛化的产品组合到激进的业务聚焦，美光在过去五年完成的不仅是技术补课，更是对自身在AI时代存储产业中角色的重新定义。美光当前的位置，或许更像是一个新的起点，而非传统意义上的巅峰回归。它已经证明了自己有能力在技术路线失误后实现战略校准，有决心通过激进的资源腾挪聚焦核心赛道，有实力在HBM等关键领域重新获得竞争资格。但要真正站上行业之巅，美光还需要在技术持续迭代、生态话语权构建、产能规模化扩张等维度，完成更长期的积累。巅峰或许还很遥远，但至少，美光已经重新回到了通往巅峰的道路上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SNDK":2,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"STX":2,"WDC":2,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"09347":2,"NVDY":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"MU":1.97,"MUU":2,"NVDW":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"SSNLF":2,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"07709":2,"SMSD.UK":2,"07747":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":523849486172904,"gmtCreate":1768919540249,"gmtModify":1768919545128,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4204802400643660","authorIdStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3568099945700012\">@没有人比我更懂韭菜</a>:怎么理解这里的大宗商品//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3568099945700012\">@没有人比我更懂韭菜</a>:闪迪的周期性极强...他卖的是大宗商品","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3568099945700012\">@没有人比我更懂韭菜</a>:怎么理解这里的大宗商品//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3568099945700012\">@没有人比我更懂韭菜</a>:闪迪的周期性极强...他卖的是大宗商品","text":"Replying to @没有人比我更懂韭菜:怎么理解这里的大宗商品//@没有人比我更懂韭菜:闪迪的周期性极强...他卖的是大宗商品","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/523849486172904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274778362153","authorId":"3479274778362153","name":"letgo09","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture110","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274778362153","authorIdStr":"3479274778362153"},"content":"大宗商品看供需，闪迪周期性特明显","text":"大宗商品看供需，闪迪周期性特明显","html":"大宗商品看供需，闪迪周期性特明显"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":523834722762920,"gmtCreate":1768915924814,"gmtModify":1768915928382,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4204802400643660","authorIdStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"问题不大 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他这还没起来呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521328222201368","repostId":"521327143986352","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":521327143986352,"gmtCreate":1768317099130,"gmtModify":1768318255707,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b5cf6c03bcac89ba1c73cf2a99df7b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4162104220111030","authorIdStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a>留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。美股有可能要跌了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a>留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。美股有可能要跌了。","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 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好家伙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521325631636392","repostId":"1147962694","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147962694","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1768315450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147962694?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-13 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"卡特彼勒创新高，此前宣布与英伟达扩大合作，通过AI推动创新发展","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147962694","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"推动跨行业创新发展。","content":"<p>周二，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a> 盘初涨1.7%，创历史新高，年内涨幅近12%。1月初，卡特彼勒宣布与英伟达扩大合作，通过新一代人工智能增强型客户解决方案及制造系统，推动跨行业创新发展。声明称，此次合作将改变卡特彼勒客户、经销商及员工的作业模式。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e10bf3bd24445ccfcc61754315fd32\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>卡特彼勒创新高，此前宣布与英伟达扩大合作，通过AI推动创新发展</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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tg-height=\"240\"></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c118f447ec0f1f0ce6060cc2e85ac6a4","relate_stocks":{"CAT":"卡特彼勒"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147962694","content_text":"周二，卡特彼勒 盘初涨1.7%，创历史新高，年内涨幅近12%。1月初，卡特彼勒宣布与英伟达扩大合作，通过新一代人工智能增强型客户解决方案及制造系统，推动跨行业创新发展。声明称，此次合作将改变卡特彼勒客户、经销商及员工的作业模式。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAT":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519597911797776,"gmtCreate":1767876289415,"gmtModify":1767877459726,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4204802400643660","authorIdStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"96给老子套住了[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"96给老子套住了[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"96给老子套住了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519597911797776","repostId":"2601935851","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601935851","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"「金吾财讯」以精准用户需求为切入点，打造一站式港美股投资细分领域品牌。依托战略合作伙伴凤凰网财经，将港美股内容传播到全球华人圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金吾财讯","id":"1086022552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c"},"pubTimestamp":1767853015,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601935851?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-08 14:16","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"【券商聚焦】华源证券维持毛戈平(01318)“买入”评级 指公司未来业绩增长确定性较高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601935851","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors签订战略合作框架协议。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002787\">华源</a>证券发研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors(路威凯腾)签订战略合作框架协议。根据协议，双方在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构进一步优化、人才引进与治理方面达成战略合作意向。路威凯腾将利用其全球化投资布局与战略伙伴网络，协助并赋能集团旗下品牌拓展海外高端零售渠道；双方拟共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权投资基金；同时在资本结构优化、人才引进与治理方面进行合作。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。机构全面布局消费领域全行业优质标的，并具备覆盖企业全生命周期的多元投资能力，单笔投资规模可覆盖500万至50亿美元。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。基于公司线上及线下渠道靓丽销售表现，该机构预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.1/15.8/20.3亿元，同比增长38%/30%/28%。公司作为国内高端彩妆品牌，创始人IP深度赋能品牌，护肤&amp;彩妆品类稳步增长，线下&amp;线上优势显著，当前品牌势能处于稳步向上阶段，大单品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>仍在高速增长，该机构看好公司的IP品牌价值稀缺＋渠道禀赋＋后续成长潜能，未来业绩增长确定性较高，维持“买入”评级。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【券商聚焦】华源证券维持毛戈平(01318)“买入”评级 指公司未来业绩增长确定性较高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【券商聚焦】华源证券维持毛戈平(01318)“买入”评级 指公司未来业绩增长确定性较高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086022552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金吾财讯 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-08 14:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002787\">华源</a>证券发研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors(路威凯腾)签订战略合作框架协议。根据协议，双方在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构进一步优化、人才引进与治理方面达成战略合作意向。路威凯腾将利用其全球化投资布局与战略伙伴网络，协助并赋能集团旗下品牌拓展海外高端零售渠道；双方拟共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权投资基金；同时在资本结构优化、人才引进与治理方面进行合作。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。机构全面布局消费领域全行业优质标的，并具备覆盖企业全生命周期的多元投资能力，单笔投资规模可覆盖500万至50亿美元。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。基于公司线上及线下渠道靓丽销售表现，该机构预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.1/15.8/20.3亿元，同比增长38%/30%/28%。公司作为国内高端彩妆品牌，创始人IP深度赋能品牌，护肤&amp;彩妆品类稳步增长，线下&amp;线上优势显著，当前品牌势能处于稳步向上阶段，大单品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>仍在高速增长，该机构看好公司的IP品牌价值稀缺＋渠道禀赋＋后续成长潜能，未来业绩增长确定性较高，维持“买入”评级。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20250109/MjJmNDVlM2IxNTc1MzAyMDFjYTFhODQyNzEzMTQ0NzU5OA==.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","01318":"毛戈平"},"source_url":"1972856","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2601935851","content_text":"金吾财讯 | 华源证券发研报指，毛戈平(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors(路威凯腾)签订战略合作框架协议。根据协议，双方在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构进一步优化、人才引进与治理方面达成战略合作意向。路威凯腾将利用其全球化投资布局与战略伙伴网络，协助并赋能集团旗下品牌拓展海外高端零售渠道；双方拟共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权投资基金；同时在资本结构优化、人才引进与治理方面进行合作。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。机构全面布局消费领域全行业优质标的，并具备覆盖企业全生命周期的多元投资能力，单笔投资规模可覆盖500万至50亿美元。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。基于公司线上及线下渠道靓丽销售表现，该机构预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.1/15.8/20.3亿元，同比增长38%/30%/28%。公司作为国内高端彩妆品牌，创始人IP深度赋能品牌，护肤&彩妆品类稳步增长，线下&线上优势显著，当前品牌势能处于稳步向上阶段，大单品矩阵仍在高速增长，该机构看好公司的IP品牌价值稀缺＋渠道禀赋＋后续成长潜能，未来业绩增长确定性较高，维持“买入”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161027":1.5,"01318":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509288505258144,"gmtCreate":1765375952526,"gmtModify":1765375955039,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4204802400643660","authorIdStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收购tk？不是不卖嘛 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n雷军9月25日晚7点将举办第6次年度演讲！小米17系列同日发布\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-22 08:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月22日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>集团董事长雷军：9月25日晚7点，我将举办第6次年度演讲，主题是《改变》。聊聊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>玄戒芯片和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>汽车背后的故事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40e34f11037042736586496da7e03d0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"470\"/></p><p><strong>雷军：小米17系列9月25日晚7点发布</strong></p><p>雷军：小米17系列，三款登场，每款都惊艳： 小米17是小米史上最强标准版旗舰，小米17Pro是最精湛的小尺寸科技影像旗舰。小米17ProMax是小米史上最强科技影像旗舰，搭载全新小米澎湃 OS3。9月25日晚7点发布。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b28c0f62f1e51ec4e3cbe168444388c\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"594\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86eaa8565a3430191eb6cda01c42ee72","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","01810":"小米集团-W","XIACY":"小米集团ADR"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194828945","content_text":"9月22日，小米集团董事长雷军：9月25日晚7点，我将举办第6次年度演讲，主题是《改变》。聊聊小米玄戒芯片和小米汽车背后的故事。雷军：小米17系列9月25日晚7点发布雷军：小米17系列，三款登场，每款都惊艳： 小米17是小米史上最强标准版旗舰，小米17Pro是最精湛的小尺寸科技影像旗舰。小米17ProMax是小米史上最强科技影像旗舰，搭载全新小米澎湃 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祝福大家","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e1c2ac0c0d12376d0dd378ca713f46","width":"906","height":"1459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/475069461594168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526293378383952,"gmtCreate":1769517295958,"gmtModify":1769517298658,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈哈太坏了这帮人","listText":"哈哈哈哈太坏了这帮人","text":"哈哈哈哈太坏了这帮人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526293378383952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525975634654448,"gmtCreate":1769436972915,"gmtModify":1769436975462,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;挺详细","listText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;挺详细","text":"[强] 挺详细","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525975634654448","repostId":"2606935522","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606935522","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1769399634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606935522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-26 11:53","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"存储芯片，最大黑马","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606935522","media":"格隆汇","summary":"从追赶者到竞争者","content":"<p><strong>2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。</strong></p><p>这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。</p><p>更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。</p><p>这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。</p><h3 id=\"id_2899542882\">HMC的失利</h3><p>要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。</p><p>那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。</p><p>这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。</p><p>更致命的是时机判断。2013年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。</p><p>美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。</p><p>但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。</p><p>2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。</p><h3 id=\"id_3810015875\">HBM3E的转折</h3><p>真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。</p><p>前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。</p><p>2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。</p><p>这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。</p><p>2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。</p><p>但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。</p><p>更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。</p><h3 id=\"id_2205011960\">从卖内存到参与系统架构</h3><p>如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。</p><p>SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、OpenAI 以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。</p><p>在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a> 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。</p><p>与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。</p><p>这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。</p><h3 id=\"id_3085658045\">制程、产能与业务收缩</h3><p>技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。</p><p>在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。</p><p>在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。</p><p>与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。</p><p>从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。</p><p>与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。</p><h3 id=\"id_952301051\">从追赶者到竞争者</h3><p>随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。</p><p>目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。</p><p>多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。</p><p>不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。</p><p>为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。</p><p>与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。</p><p>综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。</p><p>但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 竞争中的上限。</p><h3 id=\"id_2042127808\">巅峰还是新起点？</h3><p>我们回到最初的问题：美光是否重返巅峰？</p><p>如果将“巅峰”定义为市场份额第一、技术绝对领先，那么答案显然是否定的。SK海力士和三星在HBM领域的先发优势、客户绑定深度以及产能规模，仍然是美光短期内难以逾越的壁垒。美光2025财年的财务表现虽然亮眼，但这更多是AI热潮下整个存储行业的红利，而非美光单独的结构性优势。</p><p>但如果将“巅峰”理解为重新确立关键竞争者的位置、建立可持续的技术与市场竞争力，那么美光确实正在经历一次深刻的战略重生。从HMC的惨痛失败到HBM3E的成功突围，从被动追随到主动参与系统架构设计，从泛化的产品组合到激进的业务聚焦，美光在过去五年完成的不仅是技术补课，更是对自身在AI时代存储产业中角色的重新定义。</p><p>美光当前的位置，或许更像是一个新的起点，而非传统意义上的巅峰回归。它已经证明了自己有能力在技术路线失误后实现战略校准，有决心通过激进的资源腾挪聚焦核心赛道，有实力在HBM等关键领域重新获得竞争资格。但要真正站上行业之巅，美光还需要在技术持续迭代、生态话语权构建、产能规模化扩张等维度，完成更长期的积累。</p><p>巅峰或许还很遥远，但至少，美光已经重新回到了通往巅峰的道路上。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储芯片，最大黑马\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 11:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4770a-60786256-b4e4-4139-badf-815fb3f4826c.jpg?guru_height=3866&guru_width=5791&guru_size=2465656","relate_stocks":{"LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2463028550.USD":"AB SICAV I AMERICAN MULTI-ASSET PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) 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LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2606935522","content_text":"2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与三星：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。HMC的失利要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。更致命的是时机判断。2013年AMD和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和英特尔定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。HBM3E的转折真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。从卖内存到参与系统架构如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、谷歌、OpenAI 以及亚马逊 AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 Arm 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。制程、产能与业务收缩技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。从追赶者到竞争者随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；三星电子则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 竞争中的上限。巅峰还是新起点？我们回到最初的问题：美光是否重返巅峰？如果将“巅峰”定义为市场份额第一、技术绝对领先，那么答案显然是否定的。SK海力士和三星在HBM领域的先发优势、客户绑定深度以及产能规模，仍然是美光短期内难以逾越的壁垒。美光2025财年的财务表现虽然亮眼，但这更多是AI热潮下整个存储行业的红利，而非美光单独的结构性优势。但如果将“巅峰”理解为重新确立关键竞争者的位置、建立可持续的技术与市场竞争力，那么美光确实正在经历一次深刻的战略重生。从HMC的惨痛失败到HBM3E的成功突围，从被动追随到主动参与系统架构设计，从泛化的产品组合到激进的业务聚焦，美光在过去五年完成的不仅是技术补课，更是对自身在AI时代存储产业中角色的重新定义。美光当前的位置，或许更像是一个新的起点，而非传统意义上的巅峰回归。它已经证明了自己有能力在技术路线失误后实现战略校准，有决心通过激进的资源腾挪聚焦核心赛道，有实力在HBM等关键领域重新获得竞争资格。但要真正站上行业之巅，美光还需要在技术持续迭代、生态话语权构建、产能规模化扩张等维度，完成更长期的积累。巅峰或许还很遥远，但至少，美光已经重新回到了通往巅峰的道路上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"SNDK":2,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"STX":2,"WDC":2,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"09347":2,"NVDY":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"MU":1.97,"MUU":2,"NVDW":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"SSNLF":2,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"07709":2,"SMSD.UK":2,"07747":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":523834722762920,"gmtCreate":1768915924814,"gmtModify":1768915928382,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"问题不大 科技巨头摆在那里 可以买","listText":"问题不大 科技巨头摆在那里 可以买","text":"问题不大 科技巨头摆在那里 可以买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/523834722762920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}