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09-04 12:53

沃什：鲍威尔是美联储主席，那我是什么？🤡🤡🤡

沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”！决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是：鲍威尔？

05-05

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 无语了。。。

05-05

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 真服了，天天跌。

04-17

$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ ？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？

04-17

$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$

02-18

马到成功

@小虎活动:【新春活动】抽马年幸运签，新的一年Horse 发生 🐎✨

02-18

马到成功 @小虎活动 @好友 @TIGR @小虎周边站

02-13

$蔚来(NIO)$ 加油⛽⛽⛽

02-03

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 有没有搞错呀，横盘很久了。上不上下不下的。

02-02

$蔚来(NIO)$ 硬起来，大哥哥。

01-21

$蔚来(NIO)$ 你踏马退市吧，**玩意！

2025-11-20

$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$

2025-08-07

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 起来💪

2025-07-07

$NQ100指数主连 2509(NQmain)$ ？？？

2025-06-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 别太拉就行[捂脸]

2025-03-20

$恒生指数主连 2503(HSImain)$ 冲

2025-02-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 退市吧你😓😓😓

2025-02-26

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 加油！

2025-02-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 能不能不要一直吃屎

2025-02-21

$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$ 起来

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10:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”！决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是：鲍威尔？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2664738303","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Bianco Research创始人Bianco表示，沃勒已表态倾向维持利率不变，美联储9月议息会议的投票格局目前为6票（维持）对5票（加息），理事鲍威尔的立场尚不明朗，或成“一票定音”的关键人物。距会议不足两周，加息概率实际已接近50/50，鲍威尔的沉默成为不确定性来源。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周，投票格局高度胶着，鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出，除宏观数据的博弈外，投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>我一直认为，观察美联储现在就是在数票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变，Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为：<strong>6票（维持）对5票（加息），还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc8cd5400bbfe6ce21bbc0b92608faf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"285\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ae3fd7541fe5a6f68694e7c486b2800\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"680\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bianco个人的计票单</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔：刻意低调，却成关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco指出，鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言，“他希望淡出公众视野”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景：特朗普持续批评美联储，令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑，FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>如果所有人都按照公开表态投票，鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">加息概率：实际已是50/50</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco的结论直接而清晰：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候，加息概率实际上已经是50/50。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月30日，他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是<strong>7对5</strong>，但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息，还是7对5维持。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be97558273da267e35b30c2c845a7f72\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>目前，随着沃勒倒向维持阵营，维持派暂时以6对5领先，但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡，令最终结果悬而未决。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco认为，特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，正是出于对独立性的担忧，FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场，而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式，相对清晰地追踪政策走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自1936年以来，从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推测起来，这意味着维持现状，因为没有达成任何协议，美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然，他们可以同意举行第二次（或第三次）投票，直到打破平局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/049ab18b6937fdedb9e7e7682140ff81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”！决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是：鲍威尔？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”！决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是：鲍威尔？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-04 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周，投票格局高度胶着，鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出，除宏观数据的博弈外，投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>我一直认为，观察美联储现在就是在数票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变，Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为：<strong>6票（维持）对5票（加息），还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc8cd5400bbfe6ce21bbc0b92608faf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"285\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ae3fd7541fe5a6f68694e7c486b2800\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"680\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bianco个人的计票单</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔：刻意低调，却成关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco指出，鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言，“他希望淡出公众视野”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景：特朗普持续批评美联储，令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑，FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>如果所有人都按照公开表态投票，鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">加息概率：实际已是50/50</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco的结论直接而清晰：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候，加息概率实际上已经是50/50。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月30日，他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是<strong>7对5</strong>，但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息，还是7对5维持。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be97558273da267e35b30c2c845a7f72\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>目前，随着沃勒倒向维持阵营，维持派暂时以6对5领先，但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡，令最终结果悬而未决。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco认为，特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，正是出于对独立性的担忧，FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场，而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式，相对清晰地追踪政策走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自1936年以来，从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推测起来，这意味着维持现状，因为没有达成任何协议，美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然，他们可以同意举行第二次（或第三次）投票，直到打破平局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/049ab18b6937fdedb9e7e7682140ff81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5009085843fdda4e963c30afad78aaa9","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3781065","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2664738303","content_text":"距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周，投票格局高度胶着，鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出，除宏观数据的博弈外，投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道：我一直认为，观察美联储现在就是在数票。随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变，Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为：6票（维持）对5票（加息），还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。Bianco个人的计票单鲍威尔：刻意低调，却成关键变量Bianco指出，鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言，“他希望淡出公众视野”。这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景：特朗普持续批评美联储，令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑，FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。然而，鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道：如果所有人都按照公开表态投票，鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。加息概率：实际已是50/50Bianco的结论直接而清晰：这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候，加息概率实际上已经是50/50。8月30日，他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是7对5，但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息，还是7对5维持。”目前，随着沃勒倒向维持阵营，维持派暂时以6对5领先，但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡，令最终结果悬而未决。Bianco认为，特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。他表示，正是出于对独立性的担忧，FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场，而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式，相对清晰地追踪政策走向。自1936年以来，从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 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能不能不要一直吃屎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407435691803240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405968049004784,"gmtCreate":1740139665232,"gmtModify":1740139666236,"author":{"id":"4198679134562252","authorId":"4198679134562252","name":"遵循本心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f9ed8ce2c01d2775374c918bfb6380","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4198679134562252","authorIdStr":"4198679134562252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 起来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 起来","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2503(NQmain)$ 起来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405968049004784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":603998822031488,"gmtCreate":1788497633658,"gmtModify":1788497635942,"author":{"id":"4198679134562252","authorId":"4198679134562252","name":"遵循本心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f9ed8ce2c01d2775374c918bfb6380","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4198679134562252","authorIdStr":"4198679134562252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"沃什：鲍威尔是美联储主席，那我是什么？🤡🤡🤡","listText":"沃什：鲍威尔是美联储主席，那我是什么？🤡🤡🤡","text":"沃什：鲍威尔是美联储主席，那我是什么？🤡🤡🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603998822031488","repostId":"2664738303","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2664738303","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1788489001,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2664738303?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-04 10:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”！决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是：鲍威尔？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2664738303","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Bianco Research创始人Bianco表示，沃勒已表态倾向维持利率不变，美联储9月议息会议的投票格局目前为6票（维持）对5票（加息），理事鲍威尔的立场尚不明朗，或成“一票定音”的关键人物。距会议不足两周，加息概率实际已接近50/50，鲍威尔的沉默成为不确定性来源。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周，投票格局高度胶着，鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出，除宏观数据的博弈外，投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>我一直认为，观察美联储现在就是在数票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变，Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为：<strong>6票（维持）对5票（加息），还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc8cd5400bbfe6ce21bbc0b92608faf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"285\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ae3fd7541fe5a6f68694e7c486b2800\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"680\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bianco个人的计票单</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔：刻意低调，却成关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco指出，鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言，“他希望淡出公众视野”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景：特朗普持续批评美联储，令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑，FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>如果所有人都按照公开表态投票，鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">加息概率：实际已是50/50</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco的结论直接而清晰：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候，加息概率实际上已经是50/50。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月30日，他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是<strong>7对5</strong>，但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息，还是7对5维持。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be97558273da267e35b30c2c845a7f72\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>目前，随着沃勒倒向维持阵营，维持派暂时以6对5领先，但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡，令最终结果悬而未决。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco认为，特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，正是出于对独立性的担忧，FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场，而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式，相对清晰地追踪政策走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自1936年以来，从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推测起来，这意味着维持现状，因为没有达成任何协议，美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然，他们可以同意举行第二次（或第三次）投票，直到打破平局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/049ab18b6937fdedb9e7e7682140ff81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"595\" 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class=\"title\">\n沃勒“不加”形成“6比5”！决定9月美联储是否加息的关键竟是：鲍威尔？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-04 10:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周，投票格局高度胶着，鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出，除宏观数据的博弈外，投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>我一直认为，观察美联储现在就是在数票。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变，Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为：<strong>6票（维持）对5票（加息），还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dc8cd5400bbfe6ce21bbc0b92608faf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"285\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5ae3fd7541fe5a6f68694e7c486b2800\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"680\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bianco个人的计票单</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鲍威尔：刻意低调，却成关键变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco指出，鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言，“他希望淡出公众视野”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景：特朗普持续批评美联储，令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑，FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>如果所有人都按照公开表态投票，鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">加息概率：实际已是50/50</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco的结论直接而清晰：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候，加息概率实际上已经是50/50。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月30日，他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是<strong>7对5</strong>，但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息，还是7对5维持。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be97558273da267e35b30c2c845a7f72\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>目前，随着沃勒倒向维持阵营，维持派暂时以6对5领先，但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡，令最终结果悬而未决。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bianco认为，特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，正是出于对独立性的担忧，FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场，而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式，相对清晰地追踪政策走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自1936年以来，从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推测起来，这意味着维持现状，因为没有达成任何协议，美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然，他们可以同意举行第二次（或第三次）投票，直到打破平局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/049ab18b6937fdedb9e7e7682140ff81\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5009085843fdda4e963c30afad78aaa9","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3781065","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2664738303","content_text":"距美联储9月16日议息会议不足两周，投票格局高度胶着，鲍威尔的沉默正在成为市场最大的悬念。Bianco Research创始人Jim Bianco在社交媒体上发文指出，除宏观数据的博弈外，投票情况正在成为影响当前美联储的政策走向的关键因素。他写道：我一直认为，观察美联储现在就是在数票。随着美联储理事沃勒近期表态倾向于维持利率不变，Bianco将当前的票数格局梳理为：6票（维持）对5票（加息），还有1票归属未知——那就是美联储前主席、现任理事鲍威尔。Bianco个人的计票单鲍威尔：刻意低调，却成关键变量Bianco指出，鲍威尔自5月新闻发布会后便未再公开发言，“他希望淡出公众视野”。这一策略在Bianco看来有其背景：特朗普持续批评美联储，令委员会对自身独立性产生顾虑，FOMC投票委员们因此逐渐转向更明确地以公开表态来锚定各自立场。然而，鲍威尔的沉默如今反而制造了不确定性。Bianco写道：如果所有人都按照公开表态投票，鲍威尔的一票就举足轻重。加息概率：实际已是50/50Bianco的结论直接而清晰：这就是为什么在距离会议不足两周的时候，加息概率实际上已经是50/50。8月30日，他此前曾预判9月16日的投票结果将是7对5，但方向尚不确定——“我只是不确定是7对5加息，还是7对5维持。”目前，随着沃勒倒向维持阵营，维持派暂时以6对5领先，但鲍威尔的一票仍可打破平衡，令最终结果悬而未决。Bianco认为，特朗普对美联储的持续施压是理解当前票数分化的重要背景。他表示，正是出于对独立性的担忧，FOMC委员们开始更倾向于通过公开表态来明确各自立场，而非依赖内部协商形成共识。这使得外界得以通过“票数清点”的方式，相对清晰地追踪政策走向。自1936年以来，从未出现过6–6的投票结果。最接近的一次是1963年、1964年和1973年的6–5。 美国《联邦储备法》中没有关于平局的规定。他写道：推测起来，这意味着维持现状，因为没有达成任何协议，美联储将继续保持联邦基金利率稳定。当然，他们可以同意举行第二次（或第三次）投票，直到打破平局。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US5Y.BOND":2,"US30Y.BOND":2,".SPX":2,"BND":2,"TMV":2,"VGLT":2,"TLT":2,"SVXY":0.6,"SQQQ":2,"UBT":2,".DJI":2,"UVIX":0.6,"VIXmain":2,"US12M.BOND":2,"VGIT":2,"BOXX":2,"VIX":2,"UVXY":0.6,"TIP":2,"TMF":2,"US10Y.BOND":2,"US3Y.BOND":2,"TLH":2,"HYG":2,"SHV":2,"ESmain":2,"TQQQ":2,"US7Y.BOND":2,"USTB":2,"SGOV":2,"IEF":2,".IXIC":2,"US2Y.BOND":2,"VIXY":2,"QQQ":2,"US6M.BOND":2,"VXX":2,"EDV":2,"SVIX":0.6,"GOVT":2,"NQmain":2,"TBT":2,"SCHO":2,"AGG":2,"VGSH":2,"TLTW":2,"YMmain":2,"SHY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397845878673472,"gmtCreate":1738153073308,"gmtModify":1738153282966,"author":{"id":"4198679134562252","authorId":"4198679134562252","name":"遵循本心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f9ed8ce2c01d2775374c918bfb6380","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4198679134562252","authorIdStr":"4198679134562252"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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