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美股周先森

美股周先森

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美股周先森

06-04

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 215上车先买个百分之十

美股周先森

08-28

这娘们跟我眼光竟然一样

“木头姐”继续减持AMD！套现约1810万美元，转向加仓博通与Cerebras

美股周先森

08-04

不认同这个观点

“AI股神爆仓”和“韩股史诗级崩盘”，看似“偶然”实则“必然”，这是未来的预演

美股周先森

07-21

AMD Helios 是“大包揽”套餐： AMD 的 Helios 机架不仅卖 GPU，它里面捆绑了整套全栈硬件——包括 6 代 EPYC (Venice) CPU、多达 12 块顶级 Pensando 网络芯片（DPU）、高性能存储和整机网路架构。算的是“整机总包价”：微软买 Helios，买的是“GPU + CPU + 交换机/DPU + 软件系统”的全套商业大礼包。拿这样一个“全家桶机架”的预估总价，去对比英伟达 Vera Rubin 的裸机或基础计算节点，价格自然会高出 40%。 AMD 官方自己都在强调“TCO（总拥有成本）低”：图像第三张截图中，AMD 数据中心负责人 Forrest Norrod 也明确说了，其核心优势是“最佳总拥有成本”。如果单论芯片算力性价比它敢卖得比英伟达贵，云计算巨头根本不可能买账。媒体又要开始做空达子哥了

比Rubin贵四成却拿下微软全栈订单？AMD产品周前用“定价权”重新定义AI芯片竞争

美股周先森

2025-09-15

这是在意淫吗？[回头] 对标苹果17你怎么敢的

雷军发微博称，小米17系列，全面对标iPhone

美股周先森

2025-09-11

你们训练的还能用吗[汗颜]

市场消息：阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片训练人工智能模型

美股周先森

09-11

吹牛逼！真加息我给手机吃了

美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，符合市场预期

美股周先森

08-06

华尔街这帮货给存储收入订的到底有多高？没一个及格的

AI需求力挺闪迪上季营收超预期增近四倍，拟豪掷140亿回购，但本季指引逊色

美股周先森

07-02

这是今年最大的单日跌幅吗？

美股周先森

02-27

早晚还的涨

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，预估为3.4%，前值为3.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI数据公布后，市场预计下周美联储加息的概率约为90%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局周五报告显示，面临伊朗战争、关税以及数据中心建设带来的持续压力，上个月通胀向美联储目标迈进的进展甚微。此前，一些官员曾暗示9月15日至16日的决策将取决于数据表现；鉴于此次数据，美联储很可能会认为这将促成三年来的首次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着投资者加大对加息的押注，美国国债收益率上升，股指期货保持高位。美联储主席沃什此前一直不愿透露美联储下一步行动的意向。与此同时，受中东冲突及俄乌战争冲击供应的影响，美国经济正面临能源价格反弹的挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周，油价突破每桶100美元，美国零售柴油价格也创下历史新高</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132607198","content_text":"美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，预估为3.4%，前值为3.4%。美国8月CPI数据公布后，市场预计下周美联储加息的概率约为90%。美国劳工统计局周五报告显示，面临伊朗战争、关税以及数据中心建设带来的持续压力，上个月通胀向美联储目标迈进的进展甚微。此前，一些官员曾暗示9月15日至16日的决策将取决于数据表现；鉴于此次数据，美联储很可能会认为这将促成三年来的首次加息。随着投资者加大对加息的押注，美国国债收益率上升，股指期货保持高位。美联储主席沃什此前一直不愿透露美联储下一步行动的意向。与此同时，受中东冲突及俄乌战争冲击供应的影响，美国经济正面临能源价格反弹的挑战。本周，油价突破每桶100美元，美国零售柴油价格也创下历史新高","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601583621662064,"gmtCreate":1787908056772,"gmtModify":1787908058941,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这娘们跟我眼光竟然一样","listText":"这娘们跟我眼光竟然一样","text":"这娘们跟我眼光竟然一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601583621662064","repostId":"1148069786","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148069786","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1787901132,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148069786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-28 15:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“木头姐”继续减持AMD！套现约1810万美元，转向加仓博通与Cerebras","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148069786","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 $美国超微公司$的同时，转而加仓$博通$及$Cerebras Systems$，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a>的同时，转而加仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBRS\">Cerebras Systems</a>，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据ARK Invest披露的数据，旗下多只ETF周三合计卖出37,977股AMD。AMD周四收跌0.9%，报476.67美元，按最新收盘价计算，此次减持股份价值约1810万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这并非ARK近期首次减持AMD。过去数月，随着AMD股价持续走高，Wood已多次削减相关持仓。AMD今年以来股价累计升幅超过一倍，较高的涨幅或成为ARK进行获利了结及重新配置仓位的背景之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，Wood正在加码其他AI芯片标的。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。值得注意的是，两只股票过去3个月均出现明显回调，此时ARK逆势加仓，也反映其正在利用股价调整增加相关敞口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，从整体持仓来看，<strong>AMD目前仍是ARK在三家公司中持仓规模最大的标的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以旗舰基金 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>为例，其持有AMD市值约1.933亿美元，占基金总持仓约3%，为第11大重仓股；相比之下，ARKK持有Cerebras约1.495亿美元，持有博通约9530万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wood近年来凭借对颠覆性科技领域的高集中度投资而闻名，重点布局包括人工智能、机器人、基因技术等领域，此前对特斯拉的大举押注更令其声名大噪。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种高风险、高成长的“登月式”投资策略也带来较大的业绩波动。数据显示，ARK旗下规模最大的ARKK过去5年年化回报约为**-9%**。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后<strong>主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“木头姐”继续减持AMD！套现约1810万美元，转向加仓博通与Cerebras</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“木头姐”继续减持AMD！套现约1810万美元，转向加仓博通与Cerebras\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-28 15:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a>的同时，转而加仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBRS\">Cerebras Systems</a>，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据ARK Invest披露的数据，旗下多只ETF周三合计卖出37,977股AMD。AMD周四收跌0.9%，报476.67美元，按最新收盘价计算，此次减持股份价值约1810万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这并非ARK近期首次减持AMD。过去数月，随着AMD股价持续走高，Wood已多次削减相关持仓。AMD今年以来股价累计升幅超过一倍，较高的涨幅或成为ARK进行获利了结及重新配置仓位的背景之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，Wood正在加码其他AI芯片标的。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。值得注意的是，两只股票过去3个月均出现明显回调，此时ARK逆势加仓，也反映其正在利用股价调整增加相关敞口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，从整体持仓来看，<strong>AMD目前仍是ARK在三家公司中持仓规模最大的标的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以旗舰基金 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>为例，其持有AMD市值约1.933亿美元，占基金总持仓约3%，为第11大重仓股；相比之下，ARKK持有Cerebras约1.495亿美元，持有博通约9530万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wood近年来凭借对颠覆性科技领域的高集中度投资而闻名，重点布局包括人工智能、机器人、基因技术等领域，此前对特斯拉的大举押注更令其声名大噪。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种高风险、高成长的“登月式”投资策略也带来较大的业绩波动。数据显示，ARK旗下规模最大的ARKK过去5年年化回报约为**-9%**。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后<strong>主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"CBRX":"Tradr 2x Long CBRS Daily ETF","AVGC":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Corgi","AVL":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Direxion","CBRZ":"Tradr 2X ShortCBRS Daily ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","AVGO":"博通","AMDC":"Corgi AMD 2x Daily ETF","AVGG":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Leverage Shares","AVS":"1倍做空AVGO ETF-Direxion","AMDD":"1倍做空AMD ETF-Direxion","AMD":"美国超微公司","CBRS":"Cerebras Systems","DAMD":"2倍做空AMD ETF-Defiance","AVGU":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-GraniteShares","AMDG":"2倍做多AMD ETF- Leverage Shares","AMDL":"2倍做多AMD ETF-GraniteShares","AVGW":"Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay ETF","AVGX":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Defiance","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","AMDW":"Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF","CBRG":"2倍做多CBRS ETF-Leverage Shares","AMYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST AMD ETF","AMDY":"AMD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148069786","content_text":"知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 美国超微公司的同时，转而加仓博通及Cerebras Systems，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。根据ARK Invest披露的数据，旗下多只ETF周三合计卖出37,977股AMD。AMD周四收跌0.9%，报476.67美元，按最新收盘价计算，此次减持股份价值约1810万美元。这并非ARK近期首次减持AMD。过去数月，随着AMD股价持续走高，Wood已多次削减相关持仓。AMD今年以来股价累计升幅超过一倍，较高的涨幅或成为ARK进行获利了结及重新配置仓位的背景之一。与此同时，Wood正在加码其他AI芯片标的。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。值得注意的是，两只股票过去3个月均出现明显回调，此时ARK逆势加仓，也反映其正在利用股价调整增加相关敞口。不过，从整体持仓来看，AMD目前仍是ARK在三家公司中持仓规模最大的标的。以旗舰基金 ARK Innovation ETF为例，其持有AMD市值约1.933亿美元，占基金总持仓约3%，为第11大重仓股；相比之下，ARKK持有Cerebras约1.495亿美元，持有博通约9530万美元。Wood近年来凭借对颠覆性科技领域的高集中度投资而闻名，重点布局包括人工智能、机器人、基因技术等领域，此前对特斯拉的大举押注更令其声名大噪。不过，这种高风险、高成长的“登月式”投资策略也带来较大的业绩波动。数据显示，ARK旗下规模最大的ARKK过去5年年化回报约为**-9%**。整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGW":0.6,"CBRS":2,"CBRG":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"CBRX":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"ARKK":2,"AVGU":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AVGO":2,"AVGX":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"AMDC":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"AMD":2,"AMDW":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"CBRZ":0.6,"AVGC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464650551454893","authorId":"3464650551454893","name":"浪潮上的小舢板","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f09f9717274b4d5e1da4831966b3bf","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3464650551454893","authorIdStr":"3464650551454893"},"content":"不是娘们儿了，是奶奶。","text":"不是娘们儿了，是奶奶。","html":"不是娘们儿了，是奶奶。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":594309182517416,"gmtCreate":1786113165062,"gmtModify":1786113980393,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这不扯犊子吗……","listText":"这不扯犊子吗……","text":"这不扯犊子吗……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/594309182517416","repostId":"1119946987","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119946987","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1786113061,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119946987?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-07 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SpaceX大涨逾10%！大摩：预计该股明年年中目标价为300美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119946987","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月7日，SpaceX涨幅扩大至逾10%！摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas认为，SpaceX股份禁售期结束是一个入场点，而不是利空警告。他认为，SpaceX是一家罕见的世代复合型企业，能够将能源大规模地转化为群体智能，其拥有资源去构建在能效、成本和速度上领先业界的算力业务。Jonas维持了对SpaceX的增持评级，并预计到明年年中该股目标价为300美元，这意味着该股可能较目前水平上涨近两倍。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月7日，SpaceX涨幅扩大至逾10%！消息面上，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas认为，SpaceX股份禁售期结束是一个入场点，而不是利空警告。他认为，SpaceX是一家罕见的世代复合型企业，能够将能源大规模地转化为群体智能，其拥有资源去构建在能效、成本和速度上领先业界的算力业务。Jonas维持了对SpaceX的增持评级，并预计到明年年中该股目标价为300美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5635d2dd52856ae069e8e9a4aaebde19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX大涨逾10%！大摩：预计该股明年年中目标价为300美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX大涨逾10%！大摩：预计该股明年年中目标价为300美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-07 22:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">8月7日，SpaceX涨幅扩大至逾10%！消息面上，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas认为，SpaceX股份禁售期结束是一个入场点，而不是利空警告。他认为，SpaceX是一家罕见的世代复合型企业，能够将能源大规模地转化为群体智能，其拥有资源去构建在能效、成本和速度上领先业界的算力业务。Jonas维持了对SpaceX的增持评级，并预计到明年年中该股目标价为300美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5635d2dd52856ae069e8e9a4aaebde19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"SPCM":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Tradr","SPCU":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Defiance","SNK":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-GraniteShares","SSPC":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","SPCG":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Tradr","SPCQ":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Defiance","SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","LOFF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Direxion","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","SPCH":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Leverage Shares","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares","SPAX":"2倍做多SPACEX ETF-T-REX"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119946987","content_text":"8月7日，SpaceX涨幅扩大至逾10%！消息面上，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas认为，SpaceX股份禁售期结束是一个入场点，而不是利空警告。他认为，SpaceX是一家罕见的世代复合型企业，能够将能源大规模地转化为群体智能，其拥有资源去构建在能效、成本和速度上领先业界的算力业务。Jonas维持了对SpaceX的增持评级，并预计到明年年中该股目标价为300美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LOFF":0.6,"SPAX":0.6,"SPCU":0.6,"SPCQ":0.6,"SPCX":2,"SNK":0.6,"SPCM":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"SPAL":0.6,"SSPC":0.6,"SPCG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593737382998744,"gmtCreate":1785972100325,"gmtModify":1785972102390,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街这帮货给存储收入订的到底有多高？没一个及格的","listText":"华尔街这帮货给存储收入订的到底有多高？没一个及格的","text":"华尔街这帮货给存储收入订的到底有多高？没一个及格的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593737382998744","repostId":"1115857594","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115857594","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1785970822,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115857594?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-06 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI需求力挺闪迪上季营收超预期增近四倍，拟豪掷140亿回购，但本季指引逊色","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115857594","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"与此同时，闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，当前总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。第四财季营收和盈利均超预期 毛利率表现尤其亮眼闪迪第四财季营收89.7亿美元，高于市场预期的约86亿美元。闪迪第四财季调整后EPS为39.25美元，明显高于市场预期的34.37美元，环比增长68%。闪迪还预计，第一财季调整后EPS为44至46美元，指引中值为45美元，略低于市场预期的约45.58美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季，闪迪营收、EPS和毛利率均创单季新高，EPS较分析师预期高逾10%，毛利率超预期升至84.6%、为一年前的三倍多；数据中心收入同比增近13倍、环比翻一倍，最大收入源边缘计算业务收入同比增近四倍，消费业务收入同比降5%；全财年营收较上年增长175%。第一财季营收指引中值同比增359%、仍较分析师预期低5.5%，EPS指引中值略低于预期，毛利率指引大致持平前季。股价盘后跌超6%。 </p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI存储需求的推动下，存储芯片龙头闪迪（Sandisk）上一财季业绩出乎意料地强劲，但本季指引未能达到华尔街的更炸裂增长期待。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间5日周三美股盘后，闪迪公布，截至2026年7月3日的公司第四财季，营收同比增长372%至89.7亿美元，较市场预期高4.3%；非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）39.25美元、为一年前水平0.29美元的135倍，较分析师预期高逾10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受存储需求、价格和数据中心业务拉动，闪迪第四财季盈利能力显著改善，调整后毛利率达到84.6%，为一年前的3.2倍，高于市场预期的81.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">整个2026财年，闪迪营收较上年增长175%至202.5亿美元，显示本轮NAND上行周期和AI基础设施相关需求对公司收入体量的拉动已相当显著。闪迪公告称，全财年营收优异主要得益于客户结构的优化、向高价值客户倾斜，以及产品定价提升，并提到，全财年数据中心业务收入增长437%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪CEO David Goeckeler称，第四财季公司交出了创纪录的营收、EPS和毛利率成绩单，到2026财年结束时，闪迪已建立起“领先的技术组合”，并将数据中心业务确立为关键增长支柱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0536100afdd1a660e1f8e7a762e604b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，当前总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。对于经历7月暴跌、估值快速回落的闪迪而言，大规模回购无疑是管理层释放信心的重要信号，也为股价提供潜在支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，财报公布后，周三常规交易时段收跌5.4%的闪迪股价并未止跌回涨，财报发布后，盘后跌超6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7d07247e2830390c3d4100e0f85eca60\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"470\" tg-height=\"132\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，股价大跌的关键原因并不在于第四财季业绩本身，而在于闪迪的本财季营收指引低于市场预期，调整后EPS指引区间基本落在市场预期附近。毛利率指引环比大致持平，有见顶迹象。闪迪是AI存储交易的主要受益者，市场对该司销售增长怀有极高的期望，股价表现显示，“超预期的过去”未能完全抵消“略低于预期的未来”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报公布前，华尔街非常看好闪迪，市场已经在交易NAND供需紧张、AI存储需求上行、毛利率高企和大规模回购等利好。过去一个月，分析师对闪迪2027财年的EPS预期上调约14%。媒体统计，30位覆盖闪迪的分析师中，25位给出买入评级，无一建议卖出，平均目标价2433美元，意味着较本周二收盘价还有约70%的上涨空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，当闪迪上财季业绩超预期但本季营收指引不及预期时，投资者更容易选择获利了结或降低风险敞口，尤其是在半导体板块近期整体承压、AI交易出现拥挤松动的背景下，任何“不够强”的指引影响都可能被放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周发布财报的韩国存储巨头SK海力士也给过市场类似警示：就算利润同比大幅增长，只要没有达到已被抬高的预期，股价也可能急剧下跌。闪迪这次的盘后反应本质上也是同一逻辑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>第四财季营收和盈利均超预期 毛利率表现尤其亮眼</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪第四财季营收89.7亿美元，高于市场预期的约86亿美元。当季营收环比增长51%，同比大幅增长372%、较第三财季的同比增幅251%进一步提速，体现出存储周期上行、价格改善以及AI相关需求扩张的共同推动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利端表现更强。闪迪第四财季调整后EPS为39.25美元，明显高于市场预期的34.37美元，环比增长68%。调整后营业利润达到71.0亿美元，同样环比增长68%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毛利率是第四财季财报中最突出的指标之一。闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率为84.6%，高于市场预期的81.5%，同比提升58.2个百分点。这意味着公司不仅受益于收入放量，也明显受益于产品定价、成本结构和产能利用率的改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在当前存储行业上行阶段，价格弹性往往直接传导至毛利率和利润率。第四财季的毛利率水平显示，闪迪在NAND供需偏紧、AI服务器和高端存储需求增长的背景下，仍具备较强的定价能力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>数据中心成为新增长支柱 边缘计算业务仍是最大收入来源</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分终端市场看，数据中心业务是本季增长最受关注的亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第四财季，闪迪数据中心收入为29.8亿美元，环比增长103%，同比增长1298%、即增近13倍。这表明在AI基础设施投资持续扩张的背景下，闪迪正从传统消费和边缘存储公司，逐步向数据中心存储供应商转型。管理层也在财报中强调，数据中心已经成为公司的关键增长支柱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">边缘计算（Edge）业务仍是闪迪当前最大收入来源，第四财季收入54.3亿美元，环比增长48%，同比增长392%。这一业务的大幅扩张说明，除数据中心外，企业端、终端设备、边缘计算和相关存储需求仍在贡献主要收入体量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比之下，消费类（Consumer）业务表现偏弱，第四财季收入5.56亿美元，环比下降32%，同比下降5%。这一部分反映出传统消费电子需求仍未完全恢复，也说明闪迪本轮增长的核心并不在消费端，而在企业级、数据中心和高附加值存储市场。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>闪迪全财年营收增长175% 显著受益于存储上行周期</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026财年，闪迪实现营收202.5亿美元，较上年增长175%。这一增速在半导体硬件公司中相当罕见，背后既有行业周期因素，也有AI基础设施投资带来的结构性需求变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年，NAND市场供需关系持续改善，行业库存去化、资本开支纪律和AI服务器存储需求共同推动价格上行。此前美国银行等机构也预计，NAND市场供需失衡可能延续至2027年，价格有望继续保持强劲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么在财报前，市场普遍预计闪迪第四财季会录得营收和利润大幅增长。真正的问题并不是公司能否交出高增长数字，而是能否在已经非常高的预期之上继续显著超预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从这次财报看，第四财季结果确实强劲，收入、EPS和毛利率都强于市场预期。但在股价交易层面，投资者更关心下一阶段增长斜率是否继续上修。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>第一财季营收指引逊色是盘后股价承压的核心</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪预计，2027财年第一财季营收为103亿至108亿美元，区间中值约105.5亿美元，相当于同比增长359%，较分析师预期的111.6亿美元低近5.5%。这是盘后股价加速下跌的最直接原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪还预计，第一财季调整后EPS为44至46美元，指引中值为45美元，略低于市场预期的约45.58美元。也就是说，EPS指引大致符合预期，但并未明显超预期。调整后毛利率指引为83.0%至85.0%，相较第四财季的84.6%，基本维持高位，但也没有进一步显著扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于普通公司而言，下一财季营收仍将环比增长、EPS维持高位，可能已经是不错的展望。但对闪迪而言，市场定价的门槛更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报前，期权市场对闪迪财报后单向波动的定价幅度高达14%，说明投资者本就预期财报会引发剧烈波动。刚刚过去的今年7月，闪迪股价累计暴跌47%，市值蒸发逾1500亿美元，市场情绪高度脆弱。在这种背景下，低于预期的营收指引足以触发盘后卖压。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>140亿美元回购释放信心 但短期难抵消指引压力</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，使公司总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。以公司经历大幅回调后的市值来看，这一回购规模相当可观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大规模回购通常有三层含义：一是管理层认为公司现金流和资产负债表足以支撑资本回报；二是管理层可能认为当前股价具备吸引力；三是回购可在一定程度上提升每股收益，对股价形成中长期支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，回购更多是中长期因素，短期交易中仍要让位于业绩指引和预期变化。尤其是在财报日这样的事件窗口，投资者通常首先反应的是下一财季营收、利润率和需求趋势。闪迪回购计划虽然积极，但未能抵消营收指引低于预期带来的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，公司预计下一财季稀释后流通股数约1.55亿股。如果回购持续执行，将可能进一步优化每股指标，但具体影响仍取决于回购节奏、股价水平和未来现金流表现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>毛利率高位维持 市场关注能否持续</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率84.6%，第一财季指引为83%至85%。这说明公司预计利润率仍将维持在极高水平，没有进一步明显抬升、有见顶迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从基本面角度看，这并不是坏消息。能够在营收继续扩张的同时维持80%以上调整后毛利率，说明行业供需结构仍然有利，公司产品组合和价格环境仍处在较强区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但从交易角度看，问题在于市场是否已经将这一毛利率水平充分计入估值。如果投资者此前押注毛利率继续超预期扩张，那么“高位持平”也可能被视为缺少新的上修催化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是闪迪盘后股价下跌的一个潜在原因：财报没有证伪多头逻辑，但也没有提供足够强的新证据让市场重新上调预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>半导体板块情绪仍脆弱 闪迪处在高Beta位置</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪股价周三常规交易时段已收跌5.4%，说明财报前投资者情绪并不稳固。财报公布后，股价盘后加速下跌，反映出市场对指引低于预期的反应较为迅速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与近期半导体板块整体环境有关。闪迪股价7月累跌47%，整个芯片板块也明显承压，费城半导体指数当月累跌21%，创2008年来最大月度跌幅。AI相关交易在经历长时间上涨后，估值和仓位都处于较高水平，一旦市场对增长斜率产生疑问，高Beta个股往往首当其冲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪正是存储芯片交易中弹性较高的标的之一。上行周期中，它受益于价格上涨、利润率扩张和AI需求；但在市场风险偏好下降、投资者开始重新审视增长预期时，其股价波动也会明显放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从本次财报来看，闪迪的基本面仍然强劲，尤其是数据中心业务增速、毛利率和全年收入增长都支撑了闪迪的长期故事。但短期股价表现显示，在当前市场环境下，仅仅交出一份“好财报”并不足够，投资者要求的是持续上修的前景和更强的业绩指引。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI需求力挺闪迪上季营收超预期增近四倍，拟豪掷140亿回购，但本季指引逊色</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI需求力挺闪迪上季营收超预期增近四倍，拟豪掷140亿回购，但本季指引逊色\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-06 07:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778788><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>第四财季，闪迪营收、EPS和毛利率均创单季新高，EPS较分析师预期高逾10%，毛利率超预期升至84.6%、为一年前的三倍多；数据中心收入同比增近13倍、环比翻一倍，最大收入源边缘计算业务收入同比增近四倍，消费业务收入同比降5%；全财年营收较上年增长175%。第一财季营收指引中值同比增359%、仍较分析师预期低5.5%，EPS指引中值略低于预期，毛利率指引大致持平前季。股价盘后跌超6%。 在AI存储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778788\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4b4cc944a1435f521642742c0d4f37b","relate_stocks":{"SNDU":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-T-REX","SNXX":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDG":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Leverage Shares","SNDQ":"2倍做空SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDK":"闪迪","SNDC":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Corgi"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778788","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115857594","content_text":"第四财季，闪迪营收、EPS和毛利率均创单季新高，EPS较分析师预期高逾10%，毛利率超预期升至84.6%、为一年前的三倍多；数据中心收入同比增近13倍、环比翻一倍，最大收入源边缘计算业务收入同比增近四倍，消费业务收入同比降5%；全财年营收较上年增长175%。第一财季营收指引中值同比增359%、仍较分析师预期低5.5%，EPS指引中值略低于预期，毛利率指引大致持平前季。股价盘后跌超6%。 在AI存储需求的推动下，存储芯片龙头闪迪（Sandisk）上一财季业绩出乎意料地强劲，但本季指引未能达到华尔街的更炸裂增长期待。美东时间5日周三美股盘后，闪迪公布，截至2026年7月3日的公司第四财季，营收同比增长372%至89.7亿美元，较市场预期高4.3%；非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）39.25美元、为一年前水平0.29美元的135倍，较分析师预期高逾10%。受存储需求、价格和数据中心业务拉动，闪迪第四财季盈利能力显著改善，调整后毛利率达到84.6%，为一年前的3.2倍，高于市场预期的81.5%。整个2026财年，闪迪营收较上年增长175%至202.5亿美元，显示本轮NAND上行周期和AI基础设施相关需求对公司收入体量的拉动已相当显著。闪迪公告称，全财年营收优异主要得益于客户结构的优化、向高价值客户倾斜，以及产品定价提升，并提到，全财年数据中心业务收入增长437%。闪迪CEO David Goeckeler称，第四财季公司交出了创纪录的营收、EPS和毛利率成绩单，到2026财年结束时，闪迪已建立起“领先的技术组合”，并将数据中心业务确立为关键增长支柱。与此同时，闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，当前总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。对于经历7月暴跌、估值快速回落的闪迪而言，大规模回购无疑是管理层释放信心的重要信号，也为股价提供潜在支撑。不过，财报公布后，周三常规交易时段收跌5.4%的闪迪股价并未止跌回涨，财报发布后，盘后跌超6%。分析认为，股价大跌的关键原因并不在于第四财季业绩本身，而在于闪迪的本财季营收指引低于市场预期，调整后EPS指引区间基本落在市场预期附近。毛利率指引环比大致持平，有见顶迹象。闪迪是AI存储交易的主要受益者，市场对该司销售增长怀有极高的期望，股价表现显示，“超预期的过去”未能完全抵消“略低于预期的未来”。财报公布前，华尔街非常看好闪迪，市场已经在交易NAND供需紧张、AI存储需求上行、毛利率高企和大规模回购等利好。过去一个月，分析师对闪迪2027财年的EPS预期上调约14%。媒体统计，30位覆盖闪迪的分析师中，25位给出买入评级，无一建议卖出，平均目标价2433美元，意味着较本周二收盘价还有约70%的上涨空间。因此，当闪迪上财季业绩超预期但本季营收指引不及预期时，投资者更容易选择获利了结或降低风险敞口，尤其是在半导体板块近期整体承压、AI交易出现拥挤松动的背景下，任何“不够强”的指引影响都可能被放大。上周发布财报的韩国存储巨头SK海力士也给过市场类似警示：就算利润同比大幅增长，只要没有达到已被抬高的预期，股价也可能急剧下跌。闪迪这次的盘后反应本质上也是同一逻辑。第四财季营收和盈利均超预期 毛利率表现尤其亮眼闪迪第四财季营收89.7亿美元，高于市场预期的约86亿美元。当季营收环比增长51%，同比大幅增长372%、较第三财季的同比增幅251%进一步提速，体现出存储周期上行、价格改善以及AI相关需求扩张的共同推动。盈利端表现更强。闪迪第四财季调整后EPS为39.25美元，明显高于市场预期的34.37美元，环比增长68%。调整后营业利润达到71.0亿美元，同样环比增长68%。毛利率是第四财季财报中最突出的指标之一。闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率为84.6%，高于市场预期的81.5%，同比提升58.2个百分点。这意味着公司不仅受益于收入放量，也明显受益于产品定价、成本结构和产能利用率的改善。在当前存储行业上行阶段，价格弹性往往直接传导至毛利率和利润率。第四财季的毛利率水平显示，闪迪在NAND供需偏紧、AI服务器和高端存储需求增长的背景下，仍具备较强的定价能力。数据中心成为新增长支柱 边缘计算业务仍是最大收入来源分终端市场看，数据中心业务是本季增长最受关注的亮点。第四财季，闪迪数据中心收入为29.8亿美元，环比增长103%，同比增长1298%、即增近13倍。这表明在AI基础设施投资持续扩张的背景下，闪迪正从传统消费和边缘存储公司，逐步向数据中心存储供应商转型。管理层也在财报中强调，数据中心已经成为公司的关键增长支柱。边缘计算（Edge）业务仍是闪迪当前最大收入来源，第四财季收入54.3亿美元，环比增长48%，同比增长392%。这一业务的大幅扩张说明，除数据中心外，企业端、终端设备、边缘计算和相关存储需求仍在贡献主要收入体量。相比之下，消费类（Consumer）业务表现偏弱，第四财季收入5.56亿美元，环比下降32%，同比下降5%。这一部分反映出传统消费电子需求仍未完全恢复，也说明闪迪本轮增长的核心并不在消费端，而在企业级、数据中心和高附加值存储市场。闪迪全财年营收增长175% 显著受益于存储上行周期2026财年，闪迪实现营收202.5亿美元，较上年增长175%。这一增速在半导体硬件公司中相当罕见，背后既有行业周期因素，也有AI基础设施投资带来的结构性需求变化。过去一年，NAND市场供需关系持续改善，行业库存去化、资本开支纪律和AI服务器存储需求共同推动价格上行。此前美国银行等机构也预计，NAND市场供需失衡可能延续至2027年，价格有望继续保持强劲。这也是为什么在财报前，市场普遍预计闪迪第四财季会录得营收和利润大幅增长。真正的问题并不是公司能否交出高增长数字，而是能否在已经非常高的预期之上继续显著超预期。从这次财报看，第四财季结果确实强劲，收入、EPS和毛利率都强于市场预期。但在股价交易层面，投资者更关心下一阶段增长斜率是否继续上修。第一财季营收指引逊色是盘后股价承压的核心闪迪预计，2027财年第一财季营收为103亿至108亿美元，区间中值约105.5亿美元，相当于同比增长359%，较分析师预期的111.6亿美元低近5.5%。这是盘后股价加速下跌的最直接原因。闪迪还预计，第一财季调整后EPS为44至46美元，指引中值为45美元，略低于市场预期的约45.58美元。也就是说，EPS指引大致符合预期，但并未明显超预期。调整后毛利率指引为83.0%至85.0%，相较第四财季的84.6%，基本维持高位，但也没有进一步显著扩张。对于普通公司而言，下一财季营收仍将环比增长、EPS维持高位，可能已经是不错的展望。但对闪迪而言，市场定价的门槛更高。财报前，期权市场对闪迪财报后单向波动的定价幅度高达14%，说明投资者本就预期财报会引发剧烈波动。刚刚过去的今年7月，闪迪股价累计暴跌47%，市值蒸发逾1500亿美元，市场情绪高度脆弱。在这种背景下，低于预期的营收指引足以触发盘后卖压。140亿美元回购释放信心 但短期难抵消指引压力闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，使公司总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。以公司经历大幅回调后的市值来看，这一回购规模相当可观。大规模回购通常有三层含义：一是管理层认为公司现金流和资产负债表足以支撑资本回报；二是管理层可能认为当前股价具备吸引力；三是回购可在一定程度上提升每股收益，对股价形成中长期支撑。不过，回购更多是中长期因素，短期交易中仍要让位于业绩指引和预期变化。尤其是在财报日这样的事件窗口，投资者通常首先反应的是下一财季营收、利润率和需求趋势。闪迪回购计划虽然积极，但未能抵消营收指引低于预期带来的压力。值得注意的是，公司预计下一财季稀释后流通股数约1.55亿股。如果回购持续执行，将可能进一步优化每股指标，但具体影响仍取决于回购节奏、股价水平和未来现金流表现。毛利率高位维持 市场关注能否持续闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率84.6%，第一财季指引为83%至85%。这说明公司预计利润率仍将维持在极高水平，没有进一步明显抬升、有见顶迹象。从基本面角度看，这并不是坏消息。能够在营收继续扩张的同时维持80%以上调整后毛利率，说明行业供需结构仍然有利，公司产品组合和价格环境仍处在较强区间。但从交易角度看，问题在于市场是否已经将这一毛利率水平充分计入估值。如果投资者此前押注毛利率继续超预期扩张，那么“高位持平”也可能被视为缺少新的上修催化。这也是闪迪盘后股价下跌的一个潜在原因：财报没有证伪多头逻辑，但也没有提供足够强的新证据让市场重新上调预期。半导体板块情绪仍脆弱 闪迪处在高Beta位置闪迪股价周三常规交易时段已收跌5.4%，说明财报前投资者情绪并不稳固。财报公布后，股价盘后加速下跌，反映出市场对指引低于预期的反应较为迅速。这与近期半导体板块整体环境有关。闪迪股价7月累跌47%，整个芯片板块也明显承压，费城半导体指数当月累跌21%，创2008年来最大月度跌幅。AI相关交易在经历长时间上涨后，估值和仓位都处于较高水平，一旦市场对增长斜率产生疑问，高Beta个股往往首当其冲。闪迪正是存储芯片交易中弹性较高的标的之一。上行周期中，它受益于价格上涨、利润率扩张和AI需求；但在市场风险偏好下降、投资者开始重新审视增长预期时，其股价波动也会明显放大。从本次财报来看，闪迪的基本面仍然强劲，尤其是数据中心业务增速、毛利率和全年收入增长都支撑了闪迪的长期故事。但短期股价表现显示，在当前市场环境下，仅仅交出一份“好财报”并不足够，投资者要求的是持续上修的前景和更强的业绩指引。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDG":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SNDK":2,"SNDQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593182027248832,"gmtCreate":1785834386377,"gmtModify":1785834388321,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不认同这个观点","listText":"不认同这个观点","text":"不认同这个观点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593182027248832","repostId":"2656801586","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2656801586","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785807357,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2656801586?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-04 09:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“AI股神爆仓”和“韩股史诗级崩盘”，看似“偶然”实则“必然”，这是未来的预演","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2656801586","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。随着利率正常化、传统避险资产失效、美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周，“AI股神”旗下对冲基金Situational Awareness，因押注AI公司的高杠杆交易失败，被迫清仓160亿美元股票仓位；同期，韩国KOSPI指数在48小时内一度暴跌逾20%，随后又从低点反弹25%，当周收盘基本持平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场将这两起事件视为偶发的“噪音”，并迅速消化、翻篇。市场在短暂震荡后，最终归为平静。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“向前看”的共识可能是一种危险的误读。“AI股神”基金爆仓与韩股暴跌表面上均未引发市场系统性崩溃，但德银认为，两者均是低利率时代杠杆堆积的同一症状，不应被视为孤立事件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台消息，8月3日德意志银行研究院Luke Templeman等分析师在报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们认为这种解读是错误的，至少是不完整的。两件事都是同一底层状况的症状：杠杆——存在于ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中的杠杆——而这种杠杆是十余年低利率、稳定利率环境所催生的。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更值得警惕的是，<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。</strong>美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p><h2 id=\"id_3276576350\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“收平”是最危险的幻觉</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">KOSPI一周内走了一个完整的“V形”，指数层面几乎归零。但德银报告指出，这个数字严重误导人。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一个指数在几天内来回波动45个百分点，在经济意义上，与它原地不动是两回事。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6edb4c7f8b579a50efee25a286f0ce3\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原因在于杠杆仓位的机制：下跌时，杠杆和保证金仓位通常被机械性、不可逆地强制平仓，不管后续如何反弹。指数层面的盈亏或许对冲掉了，但个人投资者——尤其是首次使用杠杆的散户——的财富损失无法被反弹“修复”。已经爆仓的散户回不来了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">有报道称超过3%的韩国成年人在近两周内收到了追保通知。报告称，“如果属实，这一数字令人深感忧虑。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是指数波动，这是真实的家庭财富损失。</p><h2 id=\"etf\">杠杆ETF：韩国今日，美欧明日？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国这次崩盘有一个具体的触发机制：今年4月，追踪三星电子和SK海力士的单股杠杆ETF正式上市。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这两只标的本已是市值逾万亿美元的超大型股，散户持有者又占据了相当大比例。杠杆ETF上线后，散户对这两只股票的杠杆敞口几乎在一夜之间被急剧放大。当底层股票下跌，杠杆产品对跌幅的放大效应随即触发连锁平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师警告，这不是韩国特有故事。“同类产品在美国和欧洲同样在快速增长。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8268989948deb75876b3aaa36e18b2e\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果类似事件发生在美国，传导路径将远比一个对冲基金清仓更具破坏力——它会穿透消费支出（被追加保证金的家庭削减开支）、信贷市场（券商和贷款机构重新评估抵押品）以及市场信心（散户参与度逆转）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银将韩国的事件与另一个案例类比：表面上是一起孤立事件的硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭，实际上迫使政策制定者近乎为整个美国银行体系的存款提供担保——干预规模远超最初问题本身的量级。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>教训不是每件小事都会演变成系统性事件，而是那些最终演变的，事先几乎都不明显。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"594321c0\">同一病根：十年低利率积累的杠杆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“AI股神”基金的爆仓，和KOSPI的闪崩，看似毫不相关。德银认为，两者是同一病症的不同症状：<strong>超过十年的低利率和稳定利率环境，系统性地鼓励了ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中杠杆的积累。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就像一栋楼的地基在多年缓慢沉降——表面看不出来，直到某个触发点让裂缝显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师还观察到，市场和政策制定者的注意力长期集中在主权债务风险上，而家庭杠杆的风险被系统性低估——家庭杠杆增速虽趋于平台期，但绝对水平依然高企。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当我们展示下面这张图时，客户的目光会落在主权债务的上升上，而不是家庭杠杆的平台期。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0db99570e7374c55f3ec147f0b206975\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“焦点偏移”，正是当前家庭杠杆风险被系统性低估的原因。</p><h2 id=\"id_3856059727\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“小波动”事件频繁发生，不是巧合</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银的数据显示，2022年以来VIX的尖峰频率，明显高于过去十年的均值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师将这一现象与全球央行货币政策利率正常化直接挂钩：<strong>低利率时代，市场波动被压制，杠杆因此堆积；当利率回归正常，压制波动的力量消失，积累的杠杆开始寻找出口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13057129194e09c817720fe4f504f3f6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2022年利率正常化以来，VIX的“小波动”事件频率明显高于过去十年。与此同时，传统避险资产——黄金、美元、瑞郎、日元、美债、德债——自2020年以来，在多次冲击中均未能有效对冲风险，包括新冠疫情、2022年加息、2025年关税冲击和2026年伊朗战争。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7176096aedd01af20b2fee4e4f6ff7ca\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师写道：<strong>“如果避险资产在最需要的时候持续失效，投资者隐性依赖的那层缓冲就比以前薄得多。这提高了未来&#39;小波动&#39;事件演变为更大问题的概率。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_804276630\">沃什的转变：美联储在主动制造波动？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告中提出了一个理解当前市场环境的关键框架——美联储的政策逻辑，可能已经发生了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告援引分析师Rob Armstrong的理论指出：<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，并非沟通失误，而是一种刻意为之的政策选择。其核心逻辑是：前瞻指引长期压制了日常波动，而过低的波动性，反过来鼓励了政府和市场参与者超出正常水平的借贷与杠杆积累。</strong>用Armstrong的话说，“日常波动过少，最终会导致金融危机。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的解法，<strong>是将“不确定性溢价”重新引回市场——让市场重新感受到风险，从而自发约束过度杠杆行为。</strong>他无法公开表达这一逻辑，否则会直接引发市场恐慌，因此以更模糊的&#34;裁判&#34;式表述示人。但在Armstrong看来，政策行动已清晰指向同一方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一逻辑的深远含义在于：如果波动本身已成为政策工具，那么“小波动”事件的频繁出现，就不再只是市场的副产品，而是政策制定者有意为之、甚至乐见其成的结果。投资者应当停止把每一次“Situational Awareness式爆仓”或“KOSPI式闪崩”当作孤立偶发事件来处理——它们，可能正是新常态。</p><h2 id=\"135935c\">积压的风险还在哪里</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告结尾列出了两个仍存在隐性积压风险的领域：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>私募股权：</strong>大量在近零利率时代收购的科技、媒体、电信（TMT）标的至今仍留在PE机构账上，因退出市场关闭而持有期远超预期。“清算时刻可能还在前方。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>上市企业：</strong>许多上市公司仍背负着上一轮债务驱动并购热潮中收购的低效资产，资产周转率偏低——这是廉价融资鼓励“重营收轻利润”扩张的遗留痕迹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析师写道：“市场的本能是把Situational Awareness基金崩盘和KOSPI波动归入&#39;噪音&#39;，因为两者目前都没有演变成系统性事件。这种本能可能是危险的，这种本能可能是危险的，<strong>尤其是在政策制定者不仅容忍、甚至可能主动引导更多日常波动的情况下。</strong>”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI股神爆仓”和“韩股史诗级崩盘”，看似“偶然”实则“必然”，这是未来的预演\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-04 09:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周，“AI股神”旗下对冲基金Situational Awareness，因押注AI公司的高杠杆交易失败，被迫清仓160亿美元股票仓位；同期，韩国KOSPI指数在48小时内一度暴跌逾20%，随后又从低点反弹25%，当周收盘基本持平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场将这两起事件视为偶发的“噪音”，并迅速消化、翻篇。市场在短暂震荡后，最终归为平静。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“向前看”的共识可能是一种危险的误读。“AI股神”基金爆仓与韩股暴跌表面上均未引发市场系统性崩溃，但德银认为，两者均是低利率时代杠杆堆积的同一症状，不应被视为孤立事件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台消息，8月3日德意志银行研究院Luke Templeman等分析师在报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们认为这种解读是错误的，至少是不完整的。两件事都是同一底层状况的症状：杠杆——存在于ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中的杠杆——而这种杠杆是十余年低利率、稳定利率环境所催生的。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更值得警惕的是，<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。</strong>美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p><h2 id=\"id_3276576350\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“收平”是最危险的幻觉</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">KOSPI一周内走了一个完整的“V形”，指数层面几乎归零。但德银报告指出，这个数字严重误导人。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一个指数在几天内来回波动45个百分点，在经济意义上，与它原地不动是两回事。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6edb4c7f8b579a50efee25a286f0ce3\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原因在于杠杆仓位的机制：下跌时，杠杆和保证金仓位通常被机械性、不可逆地强制平仓，不管后续如何反弹。指数层面的盈亏或许对冲掉了，但个人投资者——尤其是首次使用杠杆的散户——的财富损失无法被反弹“修复”。已经爆仓的散户回不来了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">有报道称超过3%的韩国成年人在近两周内收到了追保通知。报告称，“如果属实，这一数字令人深感忧虑。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是指数波动，这是真实的家庭财富损失。</p><h2 id=\"etf\">杠杆ETF：韩国今日，美欧明日？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国这次崩盘有一个具体的触发机制：今年4月，追踪三星电子和SK海力士的单股杠杆ETF正式上市。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这两只标的本已是市值逾万亿美元的超大型股，散户持有者又占据了相当大比例。杠杆ETF上线后，散户对这两只股票的杠杆敞口几乎在一夜之间被急剧放大。当底层股票下跌，杠杆产品对跌幅的放大效应随即触发连锁平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师警告，这不是韩国特有故事。“同类产品在美国和欧洲同样在快速增长。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8268989948deb75876b3aaa36e18b2e\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果类似事件发生在美国，传导路径将远比一个对冲基金清仓更具破坏力——它会穿透消费支出（被追加保证金的家庭削减开支）、信贷市场（券商和贷款机构重新评估抵押品）以及市场信心（散户参与度逆转）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银将韩国的事件与另一个案例类比：表面上是一起孤立事件的硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭，实际上迫使政策制定者近乎为整个美国银行体系的存款提供担保——干预规模远超最初问题本身的量级。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>教训不是每件小事都会演变成系统性事件，而是那些最终演变的，事先几乎都不明显。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"594321c0\">同一病根：十年低利率积累的杠杆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“AI股神”基金的爆仓，和KOSPI的闪崩，看似毫不相关。德银认为，两者是同一病症的不同症状：<strong>超过十年的低利率和稳定利率环境，系统性地鼓励了ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中杠杆的积累。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就像一栋楼的地基在多年缓慢沉降——表面看不出来，直到某个触发点让裂缝显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师还观察到，市场和政策制定者的注意力长期集中在主权债务风险上，而家庭杠杆的风险被系统性低估——家庭杠杆增速虽趋于平台期，但绝对水平依然高企。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当我们展示下面这张图时，客户的目光会落在主权债务的上升上，而不是家庭杠杆的平台期。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0db99570e7374c55f3ec147f0b206975\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“焦点偏移”，正是当前家庭杠杆风险被系统性低估的原因。</p><h2 id=\"id_3856059727\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“小波动”事件频繁发生，不是巧合</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银的数据显示，2022年以来VIX的尖峰频率，明显高于过去十年的均值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师将这一现象与全球央行货币政策利率正常化直接挂钩：<strong>低利率时代，市场波动被压制，杠杆因此堆积；当利率回归正常，压制波动的力量消失，积累的杠杆开始寻找出口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13057129194e09c817720fe4f504f3f6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2022年利率正常化以来，VIX的“小波动”事件频率明显高于过去十年。与此同时，传统避险资产——黄金、美元、瑞郎、日元、美债、德债——自2020年以来，在多次冲击中均未能有效对冲风险，包括新冠疫情、2022年加息、2025年关税冲击和2026年伊朗战争。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7176096aedd01af20b2fee4e4f6ff7ca\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师写道：<strong>“如果避险资产在最需要的时候持续失效，投资者隐性依赖的那层缓冲就比以前薄得多。这提高了未来&#39;小波动&#39;事件演变为更大问题的概率。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_804276630\">沃什的转变：美联储在主动制造波动？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告中提出了一个理解当前市场环境的关键框架——美联储的政策逻辑，可能已经发生了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告援引分析师Rob Armstrong的理论指出：<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，并非沟通失误，而是一种刻意为之的政策选择。其核心逻辑是：前瞻指引长期压制了日常波动，而过低的波动性，反过来鼓励了政府和市场参与者超出正常水平的借贷与杠杆积累。</strong>用Armstrong的话说，“日常波动过少，最终会导致金融危机。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的解法，<strong>是将“不确定性溢价”重新引回市场——让市场重新感受到风险，从而自发约束过度杠杆行为。</strong>他无法公开表达这一逻辑，否则会直接引发市场恐慌，因此以更模糊的&#34;裁判&#34;式表述示人。但在Armstrong看来，政策行动已清晰指向同一方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一逻辑的深远含义在于：如果波动本身已成为政策工具，那么“小波动”事件的频繁出现，就不再只是市场的副产品，而是政策制定者有意为之、甚至乐见其成的结果。投资者应当停止把每一次“Situational Awareness式爆仓”或“KOSPI式闪崩”当作孤立偶发事件来处理——它们，可能正是新常态。</p><h2 id=\"135935c\">积压的风险还在哪里</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告结尾列出了两个仍存在隐性积压风险的领域：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>私募股权：</strong>大量在近零利率时代收购的科技、媒体、电信（TMT）标的至今仍留在PE机构账上，因退出市场关闭而持有期远超预期。“清算时刻可能还在前方。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>上市企业：</strong>许多上市公司仍背负着上一轮债务驱动并购热潮中收购的低效资产，资产周转率偏低——这是廉价融资鼓励“重营收轻利润”扩张的遗留痕迹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析师写道：“市场的本能是把Situational Awareness基金崩盘和KOSPI波动归入&#39;噪音&#39;，因为两者目前都没有演变成系统性事件。这种本能可能是危险的，这种本能可能是危险的，<strong>尤其是在政策制定者不仅容忍、甚至可能主动引导更多日常波动的情况下。</strong>”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e69e2b1cc0cbb2a2ca0853d058e325d","relate_stocks":{"QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","FLKR":"Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF","KORU":"3倍做多韩国ETF-Direxion",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LPL":"LG Display Co ADS","CPNG":"Coupang, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDI":"DoubleDown Interactive","EWY":"韩国ETF-iShares MSCI","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","KF":"韩国基金","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","SHG":"新韩金融","KDEF":"PLUS Korea Defense Industry Index ETF","KPOP":"KPOP AND KOREAN ENTERTAINMENT ETF","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","SPEM":"SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","PKX":"浦项钢铁","BK4588":"碎股","SKM":"韩国SK电信","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","KEP":"韩国电力","GRVY":"重力社","KT":"韩国电信","MKOR":"Matthews Korea Active ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","KB":"韩国国民银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778623","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2656801586","content_text":"市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。上周，“AI股神”旗下对冲基金Situational Awareness，因押注AI公司的高杠杆交易失败，被迫清仓160亿美元股票仓位；同期，韩国KOSPI指数在48小时内一度暴跌逾20%，随后又从低点反弹25%，当周收盘基本持平。市场将这两起事件视为偶发的“噪音”，并迅速消化、翻篇。市场在短暂震荡后，最终归为平静。然而，这种“向前看”的共识可能是一种危险的误读。“AI股神”基金爆仓与韩股暴跌表面上均未引发市场系统性崩溃，但德银认为，两者均是低利率时代杠杆堆积的同一症状，不应被视为孤立事件。据追风交易台消息，8月3日德意志银行研究院Luke Templeman等分析师在报告中写道：我们认为这种解读是错误的，至少是不完整的。两件事都是同一底层状况的症状：杠杆——存在于ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中的杠杆——而这种杠杆是十余年低利率、稳定利率环境所催生的。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。“收平”是最危险的幻觉KOSPI一周内走了一个完整的“V形”，指数层面几乎归零。但德银报告指出，这个数字严重误导人。一个指数在几天内来回波动45个百分点，在经济意义上，与它原地不动是两回事。原因在于杠杆仓位的机制：下跌时，杠杆和保证金仓位通常被机械性、不可逆地强制平仓，不管后续如何反弹。指数层面的盈亏或许对冲掉了，但个人投资者——尤其是首次使用杠杆的散户——的财富损失无法被反弹“修复”。已经爆仓的散户回不来了。有报道称超过3%的韩国成年人在近两周内收到了追保通知。报告称，“如果属实，这一数字令人深感忧虑。”这不是指数波动，这是真实的家庭财富损失。杠杆ETF：韩国今日，美欧明日？韩国这次崩盘有一个具体的触发机制：今年4月，追踪三星电子和SK海力士的单股杠杆ETF正式上市。这两只标的本已是市值逾万亿美元的超大型股，散户持有者又占据了相当大比例。杠杆ETF上线后，散户对这两只股票的杠杆敞口几乎在一夜之间被急剧放大。当底层股票下跌，杠杆产品对跌幅的放大效应随即触发连锁平仓。分析师警告，这不是韩国特有故事。“同类产品在美国和欧洲同样在快速增长。”如果类似事件发生在美国，传导路径将远比一个对冲基金清仓更具破坏力——它会穿透消费支出（被追加保证金的家庭削减开支）、信贷市场（券商和贷款机构重新评估抵押品）以及市场信心（散户参与度逆转）。德银将韩国的事件与另一个案例类比：表面上是一起孤立事件的硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭，实际上迫使政策制定者近乎为整个美国银行体系的存款提供担保——干预规模远超最初问题本身的量级。教训不是每件小事都会演变成系统性事件，而是那些最终演变的，事先几乎都不明显。同一病根：十年低利率积累的杠杆“AI股神”基金的爆仓，和KOSPI的闪崩，看似毫不相关。德银认为，两者是同一病症的不同症状：超过十年的低利率和稳定利率环境，系统性地鼓励了ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中杠杆的积累。这就像一栋楼的地基在多年缓慢沉降——表面看不出来，直到某个触发点让裂缝显现。分析师还观察到，市场和政策制定者的注意力长期集中在主权债务风险上，而家庭杠杆的风险被系统性低估——家庭杠杆增速虽趋于平台期，但绝对水平依然高企。当我们展示下面这张图时，客户的目光会落在主权债务的上升上，而不是家庭杠杆的平台期。这种“焦点偏移”，正是当前家庭杠杆风险被系统性低估的原因。“小波动”事件频繁发生，不是巧合德银的数据显示，2022年以来VIX的尖峰频率，明显高于过去十年的均值。分析师将这一现象与全球央行货币政策利率正常化直接挂钩：低利率时代，市场波动被压制，杠杆因此堆积；当利率回归正常，压制波动的力量消失，积累的杠杆开始寻找出口。自2022年利率正常化以来，VIX的“小波动”事件频率明显高于过去十年。与此同时，传统避险资产——黄金、美元、瑞郎、日元、美债、德债——自2020年以来，在多次冲击中均未能有效对冲风险，包括新冠疫情、2022年加息、2025年关税冲击和2026年伊朗战争。分析师写道：“如果避险资产在最需要的时候持续失效，投资者隐性依赖的那层缓冲就比以前薄得多。这提高了未来'小波动'事件演变为更大问题的概率。”沃什的转变：美联储在主动制造波动？德银在报告中提出了一个理解当前市场环境的关键框架——美联储的政策逻辑，可能已经发生了根本性转变。报告援引分析师Rob Armstrong的理论指出：美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，并非沟通失误，而是一种刻意为之的政策选择。其核心逻辑是：前瞻指引长期压制了日常波动，而过低的波动性，反过来鼓励了政府和市场参与者超出正常水平的借贷与杠杆积累。用Armstrong的话说，“日常波动过少，最终会导致金融危机。”沃什的解法，是将“不确定性溢价”重新引回市场——让市场重新感受到风险，从而自发约束过度杠杆行为。他无法公开表达这一逻辑，否则会直接引发市场恐慌，因此以更模糊的\"裁判\"式表述示人。但在Armstrong看来，政策行动已清晰指向同一方向。这一逻辑的深远含义在于：如果波动本身已成为政策工具，那么“小波动”事件的频繁出现，就不再只是市场的副产品，而是政策制定者有意为之、甚至乐见其成的结果。投资者应当停止把每一次“Situational Awareness式爆仓”或“KOSPI式闪崩”当作孤立偶发事件来处理——它们，可能正是新常态。积压的风险还在哪里德银在报告结尾列出了两个仍存在隐性积压风险的领域：私募股权：大量在近零利率时代收购的科技、媒体、电信（TMT）标的至今仍留在PE机构账上，因退出市场关闭而持有期远超预期。“清算时刻可能还在前方。”上市企业：许多上市公司仍背负着上一轮债务驱动并购热潮中收购的低效资产，资产周转率偏低——这是廉价融资鼓励“重营收轻利润”扩张的遗留痕迹。分析师写道：“市场的本能是把Situational Awareness基金崩盘和KOSPI波动归入'噪音'，因为两者目前都没有演变成系统性事件。这种本能可能是危险的，这种本能可能是危险的，尤其是在政策制定者不仅容忍、甚至可能主动引导更多日常波动的情况下。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KEP":2,"ESmain":2,"KT":2,".SPX":2,"ARTY":1.5,"VXUS":1.5,"KF":2,"KPOP":2,"DDI":2,".IXIC":2,"CHAT":1.5,"QQQ":2,"QTOC":1.5,"EWY":2,"VTHR":1.5,"NQmain":2,"SPEM":1.5,"SHG":2,"YMmain":2,"SKM":2,"MKOR":2,"SQQQ":2,"KB":2,"CPNG":2,"LPL":2,"FLKR":2,"PKX":2,".DJI":2,"KORU":2,"KDEF":2,"TQQQ":2,"GRVY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573818931800493","authorId":"3573818931800493","name":"小肥狼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e84208dd37da6774cf295955acec8fc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3573818931800493","authorIdStr":"3573818931800493"},"content":"这就是先射箭后画靶，先把人抢光打死再强行按个罪名 [笑哭]","text":"这就是先射箭后画靶，先把人抢光打死再强行按个罪名 [笑哭]","html":"这就是先射箭后画靶，先把人抢光打死再强行按个罪名 [笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588031109202120,"gmtCreate":1784593708245,"gmtModify":1784593711941,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMD Helios 是“大包揽”套餐： AMD 的 Helios 机架不仅卖 GPU，它里面捆绑了整套全栈硬件——包括 6 代 EPYC (Venice) CPU、多达 12 块顶级 Pensando 网络芯片（DPU）、高性能存储和整机网路架构。 算的是“整机总包价”： 微软买 Helios，买的是“GPU + CPU + 交换机/DPU + 软件系统”的全套商业大礼包。拿这样一个“全家桶机架”的预估总价，去对比英伟达 Vera Rubin 的裸机或基础计算节点，价格自然会高出 40%。 AMD 官方自己都在强调“TCO（总拥有成本）低”： 图像第三张截图中，AMD 数据中心负责人 Forrest Norrod 也明确说了，其核心优势是“最佳总拥有成本”。如果单论芯片算力性价比它敢卖得比英伟达贵，云计算巨头根本不可能买账。媒体又要开始做空达子哥了","listText":"AMD Helios 是“大包揽”套餐： AMD 的 Helios 机架不仅卖 GPU，它里面捆绑了整套全栈硬件——包括 6 代 EPYC (Venice) CPU、多达 12 块顶级 Pensando 网络芯片（DPU）、高性能存储和整机网路架构。 算的是“整机总包价”： 微软买 Helios，买的是“GPU + CPU + 交换机/DPU + 软件系统”的全套商业大礼包。拿这样一个“全家桶机架”的预估总价，去对比英伟达 Vera Rubin 的裸机或基础计算节点，价格自然会高出 40%。 AMD 官方自己都在强调“TCO（总拥有成本）低”： 图像第三张截图中，AMD 数据中心负责人 Forrest Norrod 也明确说了，其核心优势是“最佳总拥有成本”。如果单论芯片算力性价比它敢卖得比英伟达贵，云计算巨头根本不可能买账。媒体又要开始做空达子哥了","text":"AMD Helios 是“大包揽”套餐： AMD 的 Helios 机架不仅卖 GPU，它里面捆绑了整套全栈硬件——包括 6 代 EPYC (Venice) CPU、多达 12 块顶级 Pensando 网络芯片（DPU）、高性能存储和整机网路架构。 算的是“整机总包价”： 微软买 Helios，买的是“GPU + CPU + 交换机/DPU + 软件系统”的全套商业大礼包。拿这样一个“全家桶机架”的预估总价，去对比英伟达 Vera Rubin 的裸机或基础计算节点，价格自然会高出 40%。 AMD 官方自己都在强调“TCO（总拥有成本）低”： 图像第三张截图中，AMD 数据中心负责人 Forrest Norrod 也明确说了，其核心优势是“最佳总拥有成本”。如果单论芯片算力性价比它敢卖得比英伟达贵，云计算巨头根本不可能买账。媒体又要开始做空达子哥了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588031109202120","repostId":"2653460892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2653460892","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784582244,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2653460892?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-21 05:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比Rubin贵四成却拿下微软全栈订单？AMD产品周前用“定价权”重新定义AI芯片竞争","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2653460892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"AMD凭借Helios机架级AI系统获微软Azure采购，此次合作实现\"GPU+CPU+网络\"全栈落地。研究机构Futurum Group估计，AMD Helios机架级AI系统售价在500万至550万美元之间，比英伟达Vera Rubin的350万至400万估价高出约40%。分析师预计其GPU市场份额有望从4.5%升至20%-25%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>数据中心GPU垄断地位的挑战，正从低价替代策略转向定价权叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>将在其Azure云平台上部署AMD的Helios机架级解决方案，用于驱动前沿模型AI推理工作负载。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group估计，在与微软达成的迄今最全面云合作协议中，Helios机架级AI系统以高于英伟达Rubin约40%的售价获得微软全栈采购</strong>，标志着AMD在AI基础设施市场的竞争逻辑出现了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软将在Azure上部署Helios用于前沿AI推理，同时引入第六代EPYC Venice CPU虚拟机系列及Pensando DPU。这是AMD首次在单一云客户中实现&#34;GPU+CPU+网络&#34;的全栈落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一芯片板块情绪回暖，叠加AMD本周晚些时候将举行大型产品发布活动，AMD股价一度大涨超5%，尾盘涨幅回落，收至1.58%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69b578399cb86b3bcdc34980c8cfdf05\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"766\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">比Rubin贵40%却照样卖</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易中一个易被忽视的数据是价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据全球性技术研究和顾问公司Futurum Group估计Helios售价在500万至550万美元之间，高于其对英伟达Vera Rubin 350万至400万美元的估价。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Helios每个计算托盘配备四块Instinct GPU，由单颗EPYC CPU驱动，并搭载多达12块Pensando网络芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AMD数据中心负责人Forrest Norrod称其核心优势在于&#34;最佳总拥有成本和最低每词元成本&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>交易并非仅止于GPU。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Azure将新增两个基于第六代EPYC Venice处理器的虚拟机系列，并在AI后端网络和部分服务中部署Pensando DPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着AMD在微软云中的角色，正从&#34;GPU供应商&#34;升级为&#34;综合AI基础设施提供商&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱近期将AMD目标价从500美元上调至665美元，认为其CPU上行空间在三家主要芯片股中&#34;最未被充分定价&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>该行预测AMD 2027年CPU收入将达约290亿美元，仅CPU一项到2030年可贡献约19美元每股盈利。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">产品周前的催化剂<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软的加入使AMD的Helios客户矩阵进一步加密。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>已承诺6吉瓦GPU部署，OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和印度TCS亦作出重大承诺。<strong>AMD称全球前十大AI公司中已有八家在其Instinct GPU上运行工作负载。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从财务数据看，2026年Q1数据中心营收同比增长57%至58亿美元，公司计划2027年起实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元数据中心AI营收，其中大部分来自Helios。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group分析师Daniel Newman认为AMD有望将数据中心GPU市场份额从当前的4.5%提升至20%-25%，&#34;这意味着数千亿美元的营收规模&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芯片板块周一整体反弹提供了有利的情绪背景。而本周产品发布的预期进一步强化了这一叙事，市场关注苏姿丰是否会给出更激进的2027年Helios出货指引。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">推理时代，软件或是护城河</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">硬件层面AMD已逼近甚至部分超越英伟达，但软件仍是关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，<strong>此前半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis高度评价英伟达在vLLM推理引擎上的性能优化，同时指出AMD在部分模型支持上仍有明显差距。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在软件层面，英伟达推出的Dynamo分布式推理框架将vLLM深度集成，专门针对MoE模型实现了预填充与解码分离（Disaggregated Serving）、高效KV缓存传输以及双批次重叠等优化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这套框架在NVL72上能够充分发挥硬件潜力，而AMD方面目前仍主要依赖标准vLLM与DISAGG版本，针对超大MoE模型与宽并行场景的深度优化尚未跟上。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达凭借二十年CUDA积累、主流框架优先适配及TensorRT等优化库构建的软件壁垒，在推理时代仍形成持久竞争优势。Counterpoint Research分析师Neil Shah同样指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在于软件和优化，英伟达凭借CUDA拥有更为成熟庞大的生态系统。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Newman提出的问题更为尖锐：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的胜出究竟源于技术领先，还是仅仅因为算力供应如此紧张，只要能造出来就有人买？</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品周来临之际，Helios能否在定价、性能、生态三个维度同时说服市场，将决定AMD究竟是真正撼动了英伟达的地位，还是仅在供应紧张期分到了一杯羹。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比Rubin贵四成却拿下微软全栈订单？AMD产品周前用“定价权”重新定义AI芯片竞争</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-21 05:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>数据中心GPU垄断地位的挑战，正从低价替代策略转向定价权叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>将在其Azure云平台上部署AMD的Helios机架级解决方案，用于驱动前沿模型AI推理工作负载。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group估计，在与微软达成的迄今最全面云合作协议中，Helios机架级AI系统以高于英伟达Rubin约40%的售价获得微软全栈采购</strong>，标志着AMD在AI基础设施市场的竞争逻辑出现了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软将在Azure上部署Helios用于前沿AI推理，同时引入第六代EPYC Venice CPU虚拟机系列及Pensando DPU。这是AMD首次在单一云客户中实现&#34;GPU+CPU+网络&#34;的全栈落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一芯片板块情绪回暖，叠加AMD本周晚些时候将举行大型产品发布活动，AMD股价一度大涨超5%，尾盘涨幅回落，收至1.58%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69b578399cb86b3bcdc34980c8cfdf05\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"766\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">比Rubin贵40%却照样卖</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易中一个易被忽视的数据是价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据全球性技术研究和顾问公司Futurum Group估计Helios售价在500万至550万美元之间，高于其对英伟达Vera Rubin 350万至400万美元的估价。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Helios每个计算托盘配备四块Instinct GPU，由单颗EPYC CPU驱动，并搭载多达12块Pensando网络芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AMD数据中心负责人Forrest Norrod称其核心优势在于&#34;最佳总拥有成本和最低每词元成本&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>交易并非仅止于GPU。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Azure将新增两个基于第六代EPYC Venice处理器的虚拟机系列，并在AI后端网络和部分服务中部署Pensando DPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着AMD在微软云中的角色，正从&#34;GPU供应商&#34;升级为&#34;综合AI基础设施提供商&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱近期将AMD目标价从500美元上调至665美元，认为其CPU上行空间在三家主要芯片股中&#34;最未被充分定价&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>该行预测AMD 2027年CPU收入将达约290亿美元，仅CPU一项到2030年可贡献约19美元每股盈利。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">产品周前的催化剂<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软的加入使AMD的Helios客户矩阵进一步加密。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>已承诺6吉瓦GPU部署，OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和印度TCS亦作出重大承诺。<strong>AMD称全球前十大AI公司中已有八家在其Instinct GPU上运行工作负载。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从财务数据看，2026年Q1数据中心营收同比增长57%至58亿美元，公司计划2027年起实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元数据中心AI营收，其中大部分来自Helios。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group分析师Daniel Newman认为AMD有望将数据中心GPU市场份额从当前的4.5%提升至20%-25%，&#34;这意味着数千亿美元的营收规模&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芯片板块周一整体反弹提供了有利的情绪背景。而本周产品发布的预期进一步强化了这一叙事，市场关注苏姿丰是否会给出更激进的2027年Helios出货指引。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">推理时代，软件或是护城河</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">硬件层面AMD已逼近甚至部分超越英伟达，但软件仍是关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，<strong>此前半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis高度评价英伟达在vLLM推理引擎上的性能优化，同时指出AMD在部分模型支持上仍有明显差距。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在软件层面，英伟达推出的Dynamo分布式推理框架将vLLM深度集成，专门针对MoE模型实现了预填充与解码分离（Disaggregated Serving）、高效KV缓存传输以及双批次重叠等优化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这套框架在NVL72上能够充分发挥硬件潜力，而AMD方面目前仍主要依赖标准vLLM与DISAGG版本，针对超大MoE模型与宽并行场景的深度优化尚未跟上。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达凭借二十年CUDA积累、主流框架优先适配及TensorRT等优化库构建的软件壁垒，在推理时代仍形成持久竞争优势。Counterpoint Research分析师Neil Shah同样指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在于软件和优化，英伟达凭借CUDA拥有更为成熟庞大的生态系统。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Newman提出的问题更为尖锐：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的胜出究竟源于技术领先，还是仅仅因为算力供应如此紧张，只要能造出来就有人买？</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品周来临之际，Helios能否在定价、性能、生态三个维度同时说服市场，将决定AMD究竟是真正撼动了英伟达的地位，还是仅在供应紧张期分到了一杯羹。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c56afc0171892292c6eae02f98432fd","relate_stocks":{"LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0726765562.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) INC","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","LU2347655073.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC A","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989763005.USD":"东方汇理教育基金A2 Acc","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1670756490.USD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" 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2027年CPU收入将达约290亿美元，仅CPU一项到2030年可贡献约19美元每股盈利。产品周前的催化剂矩阵微软的加入使AMD的Helios客户矩阵进一步加密。此前Meta已承诺6吉瓦GPU部署，OpenAI、甲骨文和印度TCS亦作出重大承诺。AMD称全球前十大AI公司中已有八家在其Instinct GPU上运行工作负载。从财务数据看，2026年Q1数据中心营收同比增长57%至58亿美元，公司计划2027年起实现数百亿美元数据中心AI营收，其中大部分来自Helios。Futurum Group分析师Daniel Newman认为AMD有望将数据中心GPU市场份额从当前的4.5%提升至20%-25%，\"这意味着数千亿美元的营收规模\"。芯片板块周一整体反弹提供了有利的情绪背景。而本周产品发布的预期进一步强化了这一叙事，市场关注苏姿丰是否会给出更激进的2027年Helios出货指引。推理时代，软件或是护城河硬件层面AMD已逼近甚至部分超越英伟达，但软件仍是关键变量。华尔街见闻提及，此前半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis高度评价英伟达在vLLM推理引擎上的性能优化，同时指出AMD在部分模型支持上仍有明显差距。在软件层面，英伟达推出的Dynamo分布式推理框架将vLLM深度集成，专门针对MoE模型实现了预填充与解码分离（Disaggregated Serving）、高效KV缓存传输以及双批次重叠等优化。这套框架在NVL72上能够充分发挥硬件潜力，而AMD方面目前仍主要依赖标准vLLM与DISAGG版本，针对超大MoE模型与宽并行场景的深度优化尚未跟上。英伟达凭借二十年CUDA积累、主流框架优先适配及TensorRT等优化库构建的软件壁垒，在推理时代仍形成持久竞争优势。Counterpoint Research分析师Neil 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215上车先买个百分之十","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571484782384648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537270974427152,"gmtCreate":1772190539901,"gmtModify":1772190542133,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"早晚还的涨","listText":"早晚还的涨","text":"早晚还的涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537270974427152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":503230053081848,"gmtCreate":1763887394906,"gmtModify":1763888376182,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一些分析把黄仁勋的乐观口径与 2000 年思科 CEO 对“第二次工业革命”的表述作类比，是因为： • AI 投资规模巨大 • 估值处于高位 • 市场情绪和杠杆很高 但本质不同： ✘ 2000 年思科面对的是“没有盈利的互联网公司” ✔ 2024–2025 年英伟达面对的是“真实、高利润的 AI 基建需求” 目前英伟达的现金流与利润是真实而巨大，不属于当年的“泡沫式收入”。 但市场确实在问一个关键问题： 英伟达的增长能否持续五年？还是已进入周期高点？ 这才是股价的核心争议。","listText":"一些分析把黄仁勋的乐观口径与 2000 年思科 CEO 对“第二次工业革命”的表述作类比，是因为： • AI 投资规模巨大 • 估值处于高位 • 市场情绪和杠杆很高 但本质不同： ✘ 2000 年思科面对的是“没有盈利的互联网公司” ✔ 2024–2025 年英伟达面对的是“真实、高利润的 AI 基建需求” 目前英伟达的现金流与利润是真实而巨大，不属于当年的“泡沫式收入”。 但市场确实在问一个关键问题： 英伟达的增长能否持续五年？还是已进入周期高点？ 这才是股价的核心争议。","text":"一些分析把黄仁勋的乐观口径与 2000 年思科 CEO 对“第二次工业革命”的表述作类比，是因为： • AI 投资规模巨大 • 估值处于高位 • 市场情绪和杠杆很高 但本质不同： ✘ 2000 年思科面对的是“没有盈利的互联网公司” ✔ 2024–2025 年英伟达面对的是“真实、高利润的 AI 基建需求” 目前英伟达的现金流与利润是真实而巨大，不属于当年的“泡沫式收入”。 但市场确实在问一个关键问题： 英伟达的增长能否持续五年？还是已进入周期高点？ 这才是股价的核心争议。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/503230053081848","repostId":"2585104043","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2585104043","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1763862721,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2585104043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-23 09:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达财报惊艳，美股却“调头向下”！如此“过山车”，交易员坦言：谁都没想到","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585104043","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期美股市场波动显著加剧，标普500与纳斯达克指数连续下挫，英伟达财报“利好出尽”反映情绪脆弱。有分析认为，黄仁勋近期回应市场质疑时的表态，与2000年互联网明星股思科时任CEO约翰·钱伯斯的姿态有相似之处。钱伯斯曾在2000年8月公司营收与利润增长超60%时宣称“第二次工业革命才刚刚开始”，然而一年后该股累计下跌67%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>近期美股市场波动显著加剧，标普500与纳斯达克指数连续下挫，英伟达财报“利好出尽”反映情绪脆弱。有分析认为，黄仁勋近期回应市场质疑时的表态，与2000年互联网明星股思科时任CEO约翰·钱伯斯的姿态有相似之处。钱伯斯曾在2000年8月公司营收与利润增长超60%时宣称“第二次工业革命才刚刚开始”，然而一年后该股累计下跌67%。</p></blockquote><p>受经济放缓忧虑、投资泡沫风险及投资者获利了结共同影响，美股近期出现数月来最显著的日内波动。标普500指数上周下跌近2%，11月累计跌幅达3.5%；以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数当月跌幅超6%，创下自4月以来最大三周跌幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9f61bd037836834cb22fddb0d9a79c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>市场尤为意外的是，被普遍看好的英伟达财报未能延续提振作用。</strong>其强劲业绩公布后股价冲高回落，标普500指数随后两小时内暴跌逾2%。有波动率交易员指出，市场当时充满无法归因的恐慌情绪。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e114a68191149cf540a4c83fdcaf59\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮波动中，此前热门股遭受重创：Robinhood市值月内缩水四分之一，Coinbase Global股价暴跌30%，Palantir Technologies下跌约23%。与此同时，<strong>近期加密货币集体遭遇重挫，而加密货币与科技股之间的联动效应显著放大，加剧整体市场压力。</strong></p><h2 id=\"ai\">人工智能泡沫争议</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管英伟达等AI企业仍保持强劲利润增长，但市场对其资本支出能否有效转化为盈利的担忧日益加剧。</strong>过去数月全球已宣布逾1.5万亿美元的AI相关投资，然而相关股票的估值倍数尚未达到2000年互联网泡沫破裂前的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会上回应称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论。从我们的角度来看，我们看到的情况非常不同。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，有交易员观察到，<strong>股价往往在企业负面消息公开前便已提前下跌。</strong>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O&#39;Rourke在报告中指出，英伟达CEO黄仁勋近期回应市场质疑时的表态，与2000年互联网明星股思科时任CEO约翰·钱伯斯的姿态有相似之处。钱伯斯曾在2000年8月公司营收与利润增长超60%时宣称“第二次工业革命才刚刚开始”，然而一年后该股累计下跌67%。</p><h2 id=\"65c08db7\">私募市场与加密货币的连锁反应</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去，股市投资者很少关注私募市场，但这一情况正在改变。如今，包括Sam Altman创立的OpenAI在内的一系列行业领军企业仍为私人持股，而“私募信贷”更已成为华尔街增长最迅速的业务板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期，<strong>汽车零部件集团第一品牌的倒闭事件，引发市场对私募信贷领域大规模贷款的担忧。</strong>该公司曾从债权人处融资约110亿美元。伦敦信贷对冲基金傅里叶资产管理首席投资官Orlando Gemes指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“部分企业此前以2%-3%的低利率融资，杠杆倍数高达七倍，如今却面临8%-10%的高利率再融资环境，压力巨大。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，<strong>加密货币市场的深度回调进一步拖累了市场情绪。</strong>一批通过发行股票筹资并重仓加密货币的“加密货币国库公司”正遭遇大幅抛售，导致曾备受追捧的相关策略本月暴跌37%，这一热门交易模式面临严峻考验。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易员指出，只要这类加密货币关联公司陷入困境，投资者便难以继续买入加密货币，市场将失去一类能够推动价格的买家。尽管以往加密货币崩盘对股市和经济影响有限，但如今持有加密货币的群体更广、市场规模更大，比特币价格已成为判断市场下一步走向的关键参考指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五，对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼公开表示，<strong>他此前“低估”了房利美、房地美股票与加密货币之间的联动关系，因加密货币仓位保证金要求上升，导致这些房贷机构股票遭到抛售。</strong></p><h2 id=\"a4756dc\">高杠杆引发连锁反应</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当前市场波动与杠杆交易及年底获利了结密切相关。</strong>华尔街机构和散户投资者均大量使用融资放大市场押注，Finra数据显示，10月底券商账户融资余额达1.1万亿美元，创历史新高；Morningstar统计显示，杠杆股票基金规模今年秋天突破1400亿美元，创1990年代有记录以来峰值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">杠杆交易在市场上涨时能放大收益，却在市场动荡时加剧风险。为满足保证金要求，投资者被迫抛售持仓，形成&#34;下跌-平仓-进一步下跌&#34;的恶性循环。这一机制在比特币市场尤为显著，当交易员使用高杠杆押注加密货币上涨时，一旦价格回落，连环平仓将引发巨额亏损，并可能跨市场传导至科技股等风险资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 旧金山QVR Advisors管理合伙人Benn Eifert指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“部分过度杠杆化的投资者同时持有加密货币和科技泡沫股。当加密货币头寸被平仓时，他们不得不抛售科技股维持保证金。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，行为金融因素也在发挥作用，投资者们正在获利了结。尽管标普500指数年内仍涨12%、债券市场迎2020年来最佳表现，但投资者普遍担忧已实现的利润可能回吐。这一心理在对冲基金领域尤为明显，交易员为保住年底奖金，往往在市场转弱时竞相抛售，这种集体行为容易形成&#34;抛售-下跌-进一步抛售&#34;的恶性循环。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达财报惊艳，美股却“调头向下”！如此“过山车”，交易员坦言：谁都没想到</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达财报惊艳，美股却“调头向下”！如此“过山车”，交易员坦言：谁都没想到\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-23 09:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>近期美股市场波动显著加剧，标普500与纳斯达克指数连续下挫，英伟达财报“利好出尽”反映情绪脆弱。有分析认为，黄仁勋近期回应市场质疑时的表态，与2000年互联网明星股思科时任CEO约翰·钱伯斯的姿态有相似之处。钱伯斯曾在2000年8月公司营收与利润增长超60%时宣称“第二次工业革命才刚刚开始”，然而一年后该股累计下跌67%。</p></blockquote><p>受经济放缓忧虑、投资泡沫风险及投资者获利了结共同影响，美股近期出现数月来最显著的日内波动。标普500指数上周下跌近2%，11月累计跌幅达3.5%；以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数当月跌幅超6%，创下自4月以来最大三周跌幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9f61bd037836834cb22fddb0d9a79c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>市场尤为意外的是，被普遍看好的英伟达财报未能延续提振作用。</strong>其强劲业绩公布后股价冲高回落，标普500指数随后两小时内暴跌逾2%。有波动率交易员指出，市场当时充满无法归因的恐慌情绪。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e114a68191149cf540a4c83fdcaf59\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮波动中，此前热门股遭受重创：Robinhood市值月内缩水四分之一，Coinbase Global股价暴跌30%，Palantir Technologies下跌约23%。与此同时，<strong>近期加密货币集体遭遇重挫，而加密货币与科技股之间的联动效应显著放大，加剧整体市场压力。</strong></p><h2 id=\"ai\">人工智能泡沫争议</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>尽管英伟达等AI企业仍保持强劲利润增长，但市场对其资本支出能否有效转化为盈利的担忧日益加剧。</strong>过去数月全球已宣布逾1.5万亿美元的AI相关投资，然而相关股票的估值倍数尚未达到2000年互联网泡沫破裂前的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会上回应称：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论。从我们的角度来看，我们看到的情况非常不同。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，有交易员观察到，<strong>股价往往在企业负面消息公开前便已提前下跌。</strong>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O&#39;Rourke在报告中指出，英伟达CEO黄仁勋近期回应市场质疑时的表态，与2000年互联网明星股思科时任CEO约翰·钱伯斯的姿态有相似之处。钱伯斯曾在2000年8月公司营收与利润增长超60%时宣称“第二次工业革命才刚刚开始”，然而一年后该股累计下跌67%。</p><h2 id=\"65c08db7\">私募市场与加密货币的连锁反应</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去，股市投资者很少关注私募市场，但这一情况正在改变。如今，包括Sam Altman创立的OpenAI在内的一系列行业领军企业仍为私人持股，而“私募信贷”更已成为华尔街增长最迅速的业务板块。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期，<strong>汽车零部件集团第一品牌的倒闭事件，引发市场对私募信贷领域大规模贷款的担忧。</strong>该公司曾从债权人处融资约110亿美元。伦敦信贷对冲基金傅里叶资产管理首席投资官Orlando Gemes指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“部分企业此前以2%-3%的低利率融资，杠杆倍数高达七倍，如今却面临8%-10%的高利率再融资环境，压力巨大。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，<strong>加密货币市场的深度回调进一步拖累了市场情绪。</strong>一批通过发行股票筹资并重仓加密货币的“加密货币国库公司”正遭遇大幅抛售，导致曾备受追捧的相关策略本月暴跌37%，这一热门交易模式面临严峻考验。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易员指出，只要这类加密货币关联公司陷入困境，投资者便难以继续买入加密货币，市场将失去一类能够推动价格的买家。尽管以往加密货币崩盘对股市和经济影响有限，但如今持有加密货币的群体更广、市场规模更大，比特币价格已成为判断市场下一步走向的关键参考指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五，对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼公开表示，<strong>他此前“低估”了房利美、房地美股票与加密货币之间的联动关系，因加密货币仓位保证金要求上升，导致这些房贷机构股票遭到抛售。</strong></p><h2 id=\"a4756dc\">高杠杆引发连锁反应</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当前市场波动与杠杆交易及年底获利了结密切相关。</strong>华尔街机构和散户投资者均大量使用融资放大市场押注，Finra数据显示，10月底券商账户融资余额达1.1万亿美元，创历史新高；Morningstar统计显示，杠杆股票基金规模今年秋天突破1400亿美元，创1990年代有记录以来峰值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">杠杆交易在市场上涨时能放大收益，却在市场动荡时加剧风险。为满足保证金要求，投资者被迫抛售持仓，形成&#34;下跌-平仓-进一步下跌&#34;的恶性循环。这一机制在比特币市场尤为显著，当交易员使用高杠杆押注加密货币上涨时，一旦价格回落，连环平仓将引发巨额亏损，并可能跨市场传导至科技股等风险资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 旧金山QVR Advisors管理合伙人Benn Eifert指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“部分过度杠杆化的投资者同时持有加密货币和科技泡沫股。当加密货币头寸被平仓时，他们不得不抛售科技股维持保证金。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，行为金融因素也在发挥作用，投资者们正在获利了结。尽管标普500指数年内仍涨12%、债券市场迎2020年来最佳表现，但投资者普遍担忧已实现的利润可能回吐。这一心理在对冲基金领域尤为明显，交易员为保住年底奖金，往往在市场转弱时竞相抛售，这种集体行为容易形成&#34;抛售-下跌-进一步抛售&#34;的恶性循环。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759944","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585104043","content_text":"近期美股市场波动显著加剧，标普500与纳斯达克指数连续下挫，英伟达财报“利好出尽”反映情绪脆弱。有分析认为，黄仁勋近期回应市场质疑时的表态，与2000年互联网明星股思科时任CEO约翰·钱伯斯的姿态有相似之处。钱伯斯曾在2000年8月公司营收与利润增长超60%时宣称“第二次工业革命才刚刚开始”，然而一年后该股累计下跌67%。受经济放缓忧虑、投资泡沫风险及投资者获利了结共同影响，美股近期出现数月来最显著的日内波动。标普500指数上周下跌近2%，11月累计跌幅达3.5%；以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数当月跌幅超6%，创下自4月以来最大三周跌幅。市场尤为意外的是，被普遍看好的英伟达财报未能延续提振作用。其强劲业绩公布后股价冲高回落，标普500指数随后两小时内暴跌逾2%。有波动率交易员指出，市场当时充满无法归因的恐慌情绪。本轮波动中，此前热门股遭受重创：Robinhood市值月内缩水四分之一，Coinbase Global股价暴跌30%，Palantir Technologies下跌约23%。与此同时，近期加密货币集体遭遇重挫，而加密货币与科技股之间的联动效应显著放大，加剧整体市场压力。人工智能泡沫争议尽管英伟达等AI企业仍保持强劲利润增长，但市场对其资本支出能否有效转化为盈利的担忧日益加剧。过去数月全球已宣布逾1.5万亿美元的AI相关投资，然而相关股票的估值倍数尚未达到2000年互联网泡沫破裂前的水平。英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会上回应称：“关于AI泡沫有很多讨论。从我们的角度来看，我们看到的情况非常不同。”然而，有交易员观察到，股价往往在企业负面消息公开前便已提前下跌。JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke在报告中指出，英伟达CEO黄仁勋近期回应市场质疑时的表态，与2000年互联网明星股思科时任CEO约翰·钱伯斯的姿态有相似之处。钱伯斯曾在2000年8月公司营收与利润增长超60%时宣称“第二次工业革命才刚刚开始”，然而一年后该股累计下跌67%。私募市场与加密货币的连锁反应过去，股市投资者很少关注私募市场，但这一情况正在改变。如今，包括Sam Altman创立的OpenAI在内的一系列行业领军企业仍为私人持股，而“私募信贷”更已成为华尔街增长最迅速的业务板块。近期，汽车零部件集团第一品牌的倒闭事件，引发市场对私募信贷领域大规模贷款的担忧。该公司曾从债权人处融资约110亿美元。伦敦信贷对冲基金傅里叶资产管理首席投资官Orlando Gemes指出：“部分企业此前以2%-3%的低利率融资，杠杆倍数高达七倍，如今却面临8%-10%的高利率再融资环境，压力巨大。”与此同时，加密货币市场的深度回调进一步拖累了市场情绪。一批通过发行股票筹资并重仓加密货币的“加密货币国库公司”正遭遇大幅抛售，导致曾备受追捧的相关策略本月暴跌37%，这一热门交易模式面临严峻考验。交易员指出，只要这类加密货币关联公司陷入困境，投资者便难以继续买入加密货币，市场将失去一类能够推动价格的买家。尽管以往加密货币崩盘对股市和经济影响有限，但如今持有加密货币的群体更广、市场规模更大，比特币价格已成为判断市场下一步走向的关键参考指标。周五，对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼公开表示，他此前“低估”了房利美、房地美股票与加密货币之间的联动关系，因加密货币仓位保证金要求上升，导致这些房贷机构股票遭到抛售。高杠杆引发连锁反应当前市场波动与杠杆交易及年底获利了结密切相关。华尔街机构和散户投资者均大量使用融资放大市场押注，Finra数据显示，10月底券商账户融资余额达1.1万亿美元，创历史新高；Morningstar统计显示，杠杆股票基金规模今年秋天突破1400亿美元，创1990年代有记录以来峰值。杠杆交易在市场上涨时能放大收益，却在市场动荡时加剧风险。为满足保证金要求，投资者被迫抛售持仓，形成\"下跌-平仓-进一步下跌\"的恶性循环。这一机制在比特币市场尤为显著，当交易员使用高杠杆押注加密货币上涨时，一旦价格回落，连环平仓将引发巨额亏损，并可能跨市场传导至科技股等风险资产。 旧金山QVR Advisors管理合伙人Benn Eifert指出：“部分过度杠杆化的投资者同时持有加密货币和科技泡沫股。当加密货币头寸被平仓时，他们不得不抛售科技股维持保证金。”此外，行为金融因素也在发挥作用，投资者们正在获利了结。尽管标普500指数年内仍涨12%、债券市场迎2020年来最佳表现，但投资者普遍担忧已实现的利润可能回吐。这一心理在对冲基金领域尤为明显，交易员为保住年底奖金，往往在市场转弱时竞相抛售，这种集体行为容易形成\"抛售-下跌-进一步抛售\"的恶性循环。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.5,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":478736577716960,"gmtCreate":1757910447830,"gmtModify":1757914934482,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这是在意淫吗？[回头]&nbsp; 对标苹果17你怎么敢的","listText":"这是在意淫吗？[回头]&nbsp; 对标苹果17你怎么敢的","text":"这是在意淫吗？[回头] 对标苹果17你怎么敢的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/478736577716960","repostId":"1179530372","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179530372","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1757904329,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179530372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-15 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"雷军发微博称，小米17系列，全面对标iPhone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179530372","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。</p><p>目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04bb0b4961a44f951d9ff099f3bfa450\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>雷军发微博称，小米17系列，全面对标iPhone</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n雷军发微博称，小米17系列，全面对标iPhone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-15 10:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。</p><p>目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04bb0b4961a44f951d9ff099f3bfa450\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b330c7a5fe2b62c4d008bd67f85ddd","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179530372","content_text":"9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477579200627504,"gmtCreate":1757606065816,"gmtModify":1757606084426,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你们训练的还能用吗[汗颜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"你们训练的还能用吗[汗颜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"你们训练的还能用吗[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477579200627504","repostId":"1199011675","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199011675","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1757605896,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199011675?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-11 23:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片训练人工智能模型","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199011675","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"阿里巴巴直线拉升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>直线拉升，截至发稿涨幅超8%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> 涨近5%。消息称<strong>阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片来训练人工智能模型。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad1dfa27f4270aba5885dfec95e8266\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80455325aaccaf597c796d37f65b82ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息：阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片训练人工智能模型</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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class=\"h-time\">2025-09-11 23:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>直线拉升，截至发稿涨幅超8%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> 涨近5%。消息称<strong>阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片来训练人工智能模型。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad1dfa27f4270aba5885dfec95e8266\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80455325aaccaf597c796d37f65b82ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66fa9e63945fcaa67212790e2606b678","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199011675","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴直线拉升，截至发稿涨幅超8%， 百度 涨近5%。消息称阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片来训练人工智能模型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":1.1,"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":470589610361256,"gmtCreate":1755920966263,"gmtModify":1755921269350,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这又涨上来了咋整？","listText":"这又涨上来了咋整？","text":"这又涨上来了咋整？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470589610361256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":571484782384648,"gmtCreate":1780546838677,"gmtModify":1780548409924,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 215上车先买个百分之十","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 215上车先买个百分之十","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 215上车先买个百分之十","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571484782384648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601583621662064,"gmtCreate":1787908056772,"gmtModify":1787908058941,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这娘们跟我眼光竟然一样","listText":"这娘们跟我眼光竟然一样","text":"这娘们跟我眼光竟然一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601583621662064","repostId":"1148069786","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148069786","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1787901132,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148069786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-28 15:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“木头姐”继续减持AMD！套现约1810万美元，转向加仓博通与Cerebras","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148069786","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 $美国超微公司$的同时，转而加仓$博通$及$Cerebras Systems$，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a>的同时，转而加仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBRS\">Cerebras Systems</a>，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据ARK Invest披露的数据，旗下多只ETF周三合计卖出37,977股AMD。AMD周四收跌0.9%，报476.67美元，按最新收盘价计算，此次减持股份价值约1810万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这并非ARK近期首次减持AMD。过去数月，随着AMD股价持续走高，Wood已多次削减相关持仓。AMD今年以来股价累计升幅超过一倍，较高的涨幅或成为ARK进行获利了结及重新配置仓位的背景之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，Wood正在加码其他AI芯片标的。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。值得注意的是，两只股票过去3个月均出现明显回调，此时ARK逆势加仓，也反映其正在利用股价调整增加相关敞口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，从整体持仓来看，<strong>AMD目前仍是ARK在三家公司中持仓规模最大的标的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以旗舰基金 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>为例，其持有AMD市值约1.933亿美元，占基金总持仓约3%，为第11大重仓股；相比之下，ARKK持有Cerebras约1.495亿美元，持有博通约9530万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wood近年来凭借对颠覆性科技领域的高集中度投资而闻名，重点布局包括人工智能、机器人、基因技术等领域，此前对特斯拉的大举押注更令其声名大噪。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种高风险、高成长的“登月式”投资策略也带来较大的业绩波动。数据显示，ARK旗下规模最大的ARKK过去5年年化回报约为**-9%**。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后<strong>主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“木头姐”继续减持AMD！套现约1810万美元，转向加仓博通与Cerebras</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“木头姐”继续减持AMD！套现约1810万美元，转向加仓博通与Cerebras\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-28 15:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">美国超微公司</a>的同时，转而加仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBRS\">Cerebras Systems</a>，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据ARK Invest披露的数据，旗下多只ETF周三合计卖出37,977股AMD。AMD周四收跌0.9%，报476.67美元，按最新收盘价计算，此次减持股份价值约1810万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这并非ARK近期首次减持AMD。过去数月，随着AMD股价持续走高，Wood已多次削减相关持仓。AMD今年以来股价累计升幅超过一倍，较高的涨幅或成为ARK进行获利了结及重新配置仓位的背景之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，Wood正在加码其他AI芯片标的。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。值得注意的是，两只股票过去3个月均出现明显回调，此时ARK逆势加仓，也反映其正在利用股价调整增加相关敞口。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，从整体持仓来看，<strong>AMD目前仍是ARK在三家公司中持仓规模最大的标的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以旗舰基金 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>为例，其持有AMD市值约1.933亿美元，占基金总持仓约3%，为第11大重仓股；相比之下，ARKK持有Cerebras约1.495亿美元，持有博通约9530万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Wood近年来凭借对颠覆性科技领域的高集中度投资而闻名，重点布局包括人工智能、机器人、基因技术等领域，此前对特斯拉的大举押注更令其声名大噪。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，这种高风险、高成长的“登月式”投资策略也带来较大的业绩波动。数据显示，ARK旗下规模最大的ARKK过去5年年化回报约为**-9%**。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后<strong>主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"CBRX":"Tradr 2x Long CBRS Daily ETF","AVGC":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Corgi","AVL":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Direxion","CBRZ":"Tradr 2X ShortCBRS Daily ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","AVGO":"博通","AMDC":"Corgi AMD 2x Daily ETF","AVGG":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Leverage Shares","AVS":"1倍做空AVGO ETF-Direxion","AMDD":"1倍做空AMD ETF-Direxion","AMD":"美国超微公司","CBRS":"Cerebras Systems","DAMD":"2倍做空AMD ETF-Defiance","AVGU":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-GraniteShares","AMDG":"2倍做多AMD ETF- Leverage Shares","AMDL":"2倍做多AMD ETF-GraniteShares","AVGW":"Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay ETF","AVGX":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Defiance","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","AMDW":"Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF","CBRG":"2倍做多CBRS ETF-Leverage Shares","AMYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST AMD ETF","AMDY":"AMD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148069786","content_text":"知名科技投资人、“木头姐”Cathie Wood近期继续调整AI芯片板块持仓，在减持 美国超微公司的同时，转而加仓博通及Cerebras Systems，显示ARK Invest正尝试分散其AI芯片投资布局。根据ARK Invest披露的数据，旗下多只ETF周三合计卖出37,977股AMD。AMD周四收跌0.9%，报476.67美元，按最新收盘价计算，此次减持股份价值约1810万美元。这并非ARK近期首次减持AMD。过去数月，随着AMD股价持续走高，Wood已多次削减相关持仓。AMD今年以来股价累计升幅超过一倍，较高的涨幅或成为ARK进行获利了结及重新配置仓位的背景之一。与此同时，Wood正在加码其他AI芯片标的。ARK周三买入57,705股博通，并买入69,585股AI芯片公司Cerebras。博通周四收涨4.5%，报371.54美元；Cerebras上涨2.5%，报186.67美元。值得注意的是，两只股票过去3个月均出现明显回调，此时ARK逆势加仓，也反映其正在利用股价调整增加相关敞口。不过，从整体持仓来看，AMD目前仍是ARK在三家公司中持仓规模最大的标的。以旗舰基金 ARK Innovation ETF为例，其持有AMD市值约1.933亿美元，占基金总持仓约3%，为第11大重仓股；相比之下，ARKK持有Cerebras约1.495亿美元，持有博通约9530万美元。Wood近年来凭借对颠覆性科技领域的高集中度投资而闻名，重点布局包括人工智能、机器人、基因技术等领域，此前对特斯拉的大举押注更令其声名大噪。不过，这种高风险、高成长的“登月式”投资策略也带来较大的业绩波动。数据显示，ARK旗下规模最大的ARKK过去5年年化回报约为**-9%**。整体来看，ARK此次操作并非完全撤出AMD，而更像是在AMD今年大幅上涨后主动降低集中度，并将部分资金转向近期明显回调的博通和Cerebras，以重新平衡AI芯片板块的投资组合。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGW":0.6,"CBRS":2,"CBRG":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"CBRX":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"ARKK":2,"AVGU":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AVGO":2,"AVGX":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"AMDC":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"AMD":2,"AMDW":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"CBRZ":0.6,"AVGC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464650551454893","authorId":"3464650551454893","name":"浪潮上的小舢板","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f09f9717274b4d5e1da4831966b3bf","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3464650551454893","authorIdStr":"3464650551454893"},"content":"不是娘们儿了，是奶奶。","text":"不是娘们儿了，是奶奶。","html":"不是娘们儿了，是奶奶。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593182027248832,"gmtCreate":1785834386377,"gmtModify":1785834388321,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不认同这个观点","listText":"不认同这个观点","text":"不认同这个观点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593182027248832","repostId":"2656801586","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2656801586","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785807357,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2656801586?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-04 09:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“AI股神爆仓”和“韩股史诗级崩盘”，看似“偶然”实则“必然”，这是未来的预演","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2656801586","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。随着利率正常化、传统避险资产失效、美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周，“AI股神”旗下对冲基金Situational Awareness，因押注AI公司的高杠杆交易失败，被迫清仓160亿美元股票仓位；同期，韩国KOSPI指数在48小时内一度暴跌逾20%，随后又从低点反弹25%，当周收盘基本持平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场将这两起事件视为偶发的“噪音”，并迅速消化、翻篇。市场在短暂震荡后，最终归为平静。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“向前看”的共识可能是一种危险的误读。“AI股神”基金爆仓与韩股暴跌表面上均未引发市场系统性崩溃，但德银认为，两者均是低利率时代杠杆堆积的同一症状，不应被视为孤立事件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台消息，8月3日德意志银行研究院Luke Templeman等分析师在报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们认为这种解读是错误的，至少是不完整的。两件事都是同一底层状况的症状：杠杆——存在于ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中的杠杆——而这种杠杆是十余年低利率、稳定利率环境所催生的。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更值得警惕的是，<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。</strong>美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p><h2 id=\"id_3276576350\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“收平”是最危险的幻觉</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">KOSPI一周内走了一个完整的“V形”，指数层面几乎归零。但德银报告指出，这个数字严重误导人。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一个指数在几天内来回波动45个百分点，在经济意义上，与它原地不动是两回事。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6edb4c7f8b579a50efee25a286f0ce3\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原因在于杠杆仓位的机制：下跌时，杠杆和保证金仓位通常被机械性、不可逆地强制平仓，不管后续如何反弹。指数层面的盈亏或许对冲掉了，但个人投资者——尤其是首次使用杠杆的散户——的财富损失无法被反弹“修复”。已经爆仓的散户回不来了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">有报道称超过3%的韩国成年人在近两周内收到了追保通知。报告称，“如果属实，这一数字令人深感忧虑。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是指数波动，这是真实的家庭财富损失。</p><h2 id=\"etf\">杠杆ETF：韩国今日，美欧明日？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国这次崩盘有一个具体的触发机制：今年4月，追踪三星电子和SK海力士的单股杠杆ETF正式上市。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这两只标的本已是市值逾万亿美元的超大型股，散户持有者又占据了相当大比例。杠杆ETF上线后，散户对这两只股票的杠杆敞口几乎在一夜之间被急剧放大。当底层股票下跌，杠杆产品对跌幅的放大效应随即触发连锁平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师警告，这不是韩国特有故事。“同类产品在美国和欧洲同样在快速增长。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8268989948deb75876b3aaa36e18b2e\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果类似事件发生在美国，传导路径将远比一个对冲基金清仓更具破坏力——它会穿透消费支出（被追加保证金的家庭削减开支）、信贷市场（券商和贷款机构重新评估抵押品）以及市场信心（散户参与度逆转）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银将韩国的事件与另一个案例类比：表面上是一起孤立事件的硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭，实际上迫使政策制定者近乎为整个美国银行体系的存款提供担保——干预规模远超最初问题本身的量级。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>教训不是每件小事都会演变成系统性事件，而是那些最终演变的，事先几乎都不明显。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"594321c0\">同一病根：十年低利率积累的杠杆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“AI股神”基金的爆仓，和KOSPI的闪崩，看似毫不相关。德银认为，两者是同一病症的不同症状：<strong>超过十年的低利率和稳定利率环境，系统性地鼓励了ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中杠杆的积累。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就像一栋楼的地基在多年缓慢沉降——表面看不出来，直到某个触发点让裂缝显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师还观察到，市场和政策制定者的注意力长期集中在主权债务风险上，而家庭杠杆的风险被系统性低估——家庭杠杆增速虽趋于平台期，但绝对水平依然高企。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当我们展示下面这张图时，客户的目光会落在主权债务的上升上，而不是家庭杠杆的平台期。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0db99570e7374c55f3ec147f0b206975\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“焦点偏移”，正是当前家庭杠杆风险被系统性低估的原因。</p><h2 id=\"id_3856059727\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“小波动”事件频繁发生，不是巧合</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银的数据显示，2022年以来VIX的尖峰频率，明显高于过去十年的均值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师将这一现象与全球央行货币政策利率正常化直接挂钩：<strong>低利率时代，市场波动被压制，杠杆因此堆积；当利率回归正常，压制波动的力量消失，积累的杠杆开始寻找出口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13057129194e09c817720fe4f504f3f6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2022年利率正常化以来，VIX的“小波动”事件频率明显高于过去十年。与此同时，传统避险资产——黄金、美元、瑞郎、日元、美债、德债——自2020年以来，在多次冲击中均未能有效对冲风险，包括新冠疫情、2022年加息、2025年关税冲击和2026年伊朗战争。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7176096aedd01af20b2fee4e4f6ff7ca\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师写道：<strong>“如果避险资产在最需要的时候持续失效，投资者隐性依赖的那层缓冲就比以前薄得多。这提高了未来&#39;小波动&#39;事件演变为更大问题的概率。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_804276630\">沃什的转变：美联储在主动制造波动？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告中提出了一个理解当前市场环境的关键框架——美联储的政策逻辑，可能已经发生了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告援引分析师Rob Armstrong的理论指出：<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，并非沟通失误，而是一种刻意为之的政策选择。其核心逻辑是：前瞻指引长期压制了日常波动，而过低的波动性，反过来鼓励了政府和市场参与者超出正常水平的借贷与杠杆积累。</strong>用Armstrong的话说，“日常波动过少，最终会导致金融危机。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的解法，<strong>是将“不确定性溢价”重新引回市场——让市场重新感受到风险，从而自发约束过度杠杆行为。</strong>他无法公开表达这一逻辑，否则会直接引发市场恐慌，因此以更模糊的&#34;裁判&#34;式表述示人。但在Armstrong看来，政策行动已清晰指向同一方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一逻辑的深远含义在于：如果波动本身已成为政策工具，那么“小波动”事件的频繁出现，就不再只是市场的副产品，而是政策制定者有意为之、甚至乐见其成的结果。投资者应当停止把每一次“Situational Awareness式爆仓”或“KOSPI式闪崩”当作孤立偶发事件来处理——它们，可能正是新常态。</p><h2 id=\"135935c\">积压的风险还在哪里</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告结尾列出了两个仍存在隐性积压风险的领域：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>私募股权：</strong>大量在近零利率时代收购的科技、媒体、电信（TMT）标的至今仍留在PE机构账上，因退出市场关闭而持有期远超预期。“清算时刻可能还在前方。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>上市企业：</strong>许多上市公司仍背负着上一轮债务驱动并购热潮中收购的低效资产，资产周转率偏低——这是廉价融资鼓励“重营收轻利润”扩张的遗留痕迹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析师写道：“市场的本能是把Situational Awareness基金崩盘和KOSPI波动归入&#39;噪音&#39;，因为两者目前都没有演变成系统性事件。这种本能可能是危险的，这种本能可能是危险的，<strong>尤其是在政策制定者不仅容忍、甚至可能主动引导更多日常波动的情况下。</strong>”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI股神爆仓”和“韩股史诗级崩盘”，看似“偶然”实则“必然”，这是未来的预演\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-04 09:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周，“AI股神”旗下对冲基金Situational Awareness，因押注AI公司的高杠杆交易失败，被迫清仓160亿美元股票仓位；同期，韩国KOSPI指数在48小时内一度暴跌逾20%，随后又从低点反弹25%，当周收盘基本持平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场将这两起事件视为偶发的“噪音”，并迅速消化、翻篇。市场在短暂震荡后，最终归为平静。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这种“向前看”的共识可能是一种危险的误读。“AI股神”基金爆仓与韩股暴跌表面上均未引发市场系统性崩溃，但德银认为，两者均是低利率时代杠杆堆积的同一症状，不应被视为孤立事件。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台消息，8月3日德意志银行研究院Luke Templeman等分析师在报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们认为这种解读是错误的，至少是不完整的。两件事都是同一底层状况的症状：杠杆——存在于ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中的杠杆——而这种杠杆是十余年低利率、稳定利率环境所催生的。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更值得警惕的是，<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。</strong>美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。</p><h2 id=\"id_3276576350\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“收平”是最危险的幻觉</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">KOSPI一周内走了一个完整的“V形”，指数层面几乎归零。但德银报告指出，这个数字严重误导人。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一个指数在几天内来回波动45个百分点，在经济意义上，与它原地不动是两回事。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6edb4c7f8b579a50efee25a286f0ce3\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">原因在于杠杆仓位的机制：下跌时，杠杆和保证金仓位通常被机械性、不可逆地强制平仓，不管后续如何反弹。指数层面的盈亏或许对冲掉了，但个人投资者——尤其是首次使用杠杆的散户——的财富损失无法被反弹“修复”。已经爆仓的散户回不来了。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">有报道称超过3%的韩国成年人在近两周内收到了追保通知。报告称，“如果属实，这一数字令人深感忧虑。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这不是指数波动，这是真实的家庭财富损失。</p><h2 id=\"etf\">杠杆ETF：韩国今日，美欧明日？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国这次崩盘有一个具体的触发机制：今年4月，追踪三星电子和SK海力士的单股杠杆ETF正式上市。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这两只标的本已是市值逾万亿美元的超大型股，散户持有者又占据了相当大比例。杠杆ETF上线后，散户对这两只股票的杠杆敞口几乎在一夜之间被急剧放大。当底层股票下跌，杠杆产品对跌幅的放大效应随即触发连锁平仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师警告，这不是韩国特有故事。“同类产品在美国和欧洲同样在快速增长。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8268989948deb75876b3aaa36e18b2e\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果类似事件发生在美国，传导路径将远比一个对冲基金清仓更具破坏力——它会穿透消费支出（被追加保证金的家庭削减开支）、信贷市场（券商和贷款机构重新评估抵押品）以及市场信心（散户参与度逆转）。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银将韩国的事件与另一个案例类比：表面上是一起孤立事件的硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭，实际上迫使政策制定者近乎为整个美国银行体系的存款提供担保——干预规模远超最初问题本身的量级。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>教训不是每件小事都会演变成系统性事件，而是那些最终演变的，事先几乎都不明显。</strong></p></blockquote><h2 id=\"594321c0\">同一病根：十年低利率积累的杠杆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“AI股神”基金的爆仓，和KOSPI的闪崩，看似毫不相关。德银认为，两者是同一病症的不同症状：<strong>超过十年的低利率和稳定利率环境，系统性地鼓励了ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中杠杆的积累。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就像一栋楼的地基在多年缓慢沉降——表面看不出来，直到某个触发点让裂缝显现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师还观察到，市场和政策制定者的注意力长期集中在主权债务风险上，而家庭杠杆的风险被系统性低估——家庭杠杆增速虽趋于平台期，但绝对水平依然高企。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当我们展示下面这张图时，客户的目光会落在主权债务的上升上，而不是家庭杠杆的平台期。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0db99570e7374c55f3ec147f0b206975\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种“焦点偏移”，正是当前家庭杠杆风险被系统性低估的原因。</p><h2 id=\"id_3856059727\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“小波动”事件频繁发生，不是巧合</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德银的数据显示，2022年以来VIX的尖峰频率，明显高于过去十年的均值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师将这一现象与全球央行货币政策利率正常化直接挂钩：<strong>低利率时代，市场波动被压制，杠杆因此堆积；当利率回归正常，压制波动的力量消失，积累的杠杆开始寻找出口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13057129194e09c817720fe4f504f3f6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自2022年利率正常化以来，VIX的“小波动”事件频率明显高于过去十年。与此同时，传统避险资产——黄金、美元、瑞郎、日元、美债、德债——自2020年以来，在多次冲击中均未能有效对冲风险，包括新冠疫情、2022年加息、2025年关税冲击和2026年伊朗战争。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7176096aedd01af20b2fee4e4f6ff7ca\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师写道：<strong>“如果避险资产在最需要的时候持续失效，投资者隐性依赖的那层缓冲就比以前薄得多。这提高了未来&#39;小波动&#39;事件演变为更大问题的概率。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_804276630\">沃什的转变：美联储在主动制造波动？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告中提出了一个理解当前市场环境的关键框架——美联储的政策逻辑，可能已经发生了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告援引分析师Rob Armstrong的理论指出：<strong>美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，并非沟通失误，而是一种刻意为之的政策选择。其核心逻辑是：前瞻指引长期压制了日常波动，而过低的波动性，反过来鼓励了政府和市场参与者超出正常水平的借贷与杠杆积累。</strong>用Armstrong的话说，“日常波动过少，最终会导致金融危机。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什的解法，<strong>是将“不确定性溢价”重新引回市场——让市场重新感受到风险，从而自发约束过度杠杆行为。</strong>他无法公开表达这一逻辑，否则会直接引发市场恐慌，因此以更模糊的&#34;裁判&#34;式表述示人。但在Armstrong看来，政策行动已清晰指向同一方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一逻辑的深远含义在于：如果波动本身已成为政策工具，那么“小波动”事件的频繁出现，就不再只是市场的副产品，而是政策制定者有意为之、甚至乐见其成的结果。投资者应当停止把每一次“Situational Awareness式爆仓”或“KOSPI式闪崩”当作孤立偶发事件来处理——它们，可能正是新常态。</p><h2 id=\"135935c\">积压的风险还在哪里</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德银在报告结尾列出了两个仍存在隐性积压风险的领域：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>私募股权：</strong>大量在近零利率时代收购的科技、媒体、电信（TMT）标的至今仍留在PE机构账上，因退出市场关闭而持有期远超预期。“清算时刻可能还在前方。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>上市企业：</strong>许多上市公司仍背负着上一轮债务驱动并购热潮中收购的低效资产，资产周转率偏低——这是廉价融资鼓励“重营收轻利润”扩张的遗留痕迹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析师写道：“市场的本能是把Situational Awareness基金崩盘和KOSPI波动归入&#39;噪音&#39;，因为两者目前都没有演变成系统性事件。这种本能可能是危险的，这种本能可能是危险的，<strong>尤其是在政策制定者不仅容忍、甚至可能主动引导更多日常波动的情况下。</strong>”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e69e2b1cc0cbb2a2ca0853d058e325d","relate_stocks":{"QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","FLKR":"Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF","KORU":"3倍做多韩国ETF-Direxion",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LPL":"LG Display Co ADS","CPNG":"Coupang, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDI":"DoubleDown Interactive","EWY":"韩国ETF-iShares MSCI","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","KF":"韩国基金","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","SHG":"新韩金融","KDEF":"PLUS Korea Defense Industry Index ETF","KPOP":"KPOP AND KOREAN ENTERTAINMENT ETF","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","SPEM":"SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","PKX":"浦项钢铁","BK4588":"碎股","SKM":"韩国SK电信","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","KEP":"韩国电力","GRVY":"重力社","KT":"韩国电信","MKOR":"Matthews Korea Active ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","KB":"韩国国民银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778623","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2656801586","content_text":"市场快速消化了“AI股神”爆仓和韩股暴跌事件，短暂震荡后归于平静。但德银认为，两起事件并非孤立偶发，而是十余年低利率催生的系统性杠杆积累的集中显现。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。上周，“AI股神”旗下对冲基金Situational Awareness，因押注AI公司的高杠杆交易失败，被迫清仓160亿美元股票仓位；同期，韩国KOSPI指数在48小时内一度暴跌逾20%，随后又从低点反弹25%，当周收盘基本持平。市场将这两起事件视为偶发的“噪音”，并迅速消化、翻篇。市场在短暂震荡后，最终归为平静。然而，这种“向前看”的共识可能是一种危险的误读。“AI股神”基金爆仓与韩股暴跌表面上均未引发市场系统性崩溃，但德银认为，两者均是低利率时代杠杆堆积的同一症状，不应被视为孤立事件。据追风交易台消息，8月3日德意志银行研究院Luke Templeman等分析师在报告中写道：我们认为这种解读是错误的，至少是不完整的。两件事都是同一底层状况的症状：杠杆——存在于ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中的杠杆——而这种杠杆是十余年低利率、稳定利率环境所催生的。更值得警惕的是，美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，可能是一种刻意为之的转变——主动向市场重新引入“不确定性溢价”，以遏制过度杠杆。美联储主动引入不确定性，“小波动”事件将以更高频率出现，且每一次都可能成为引爆更大危机的导火索。“收平”是最危险的幻觉KOSPI一周内走了一个完整的“V形”，指数层面几乎归零。但德银报告指出，这个数字严重误导人。一个指数在几天内来回波动45个百分点，在经济意义上，与它原地不动是两回事。原因在于杠杆仓位的机制：下跌时，杠杆和保证金仓位通常被机械性、不可逆地强制平仓，不管后续如何反弹。指数层面的盈亏或许对冲掉了，但个人投资者——尤其是首次使用杠杆的散户——的财富损失无法被反弹“修复”。已经爆仓的散户回不来了。有报道称超过3%的韩国成年人在近两周内收到了追保通知。报告称，“如果属实，这一数字令人深感忧虑。”这不是指数波动，这是真实的家庭财富损失。杠杆ETF：韩国今日，美欧明日？韩国这次崩盘有一个具体的触发机制：今年4月，追踪三星电子和SK海力士的单股杠杆ETF正式上市。这两只标的本已是市值逾万亿美元的超大型股，散户持有者又占据了相当大比例。杠杆ETF上线后，散户对这两只股票的杠杆敞口几乎在一夜之间被急剧放大。当底层股票下跌，杠杆产品对跌幅的放大效应随即触发连锁平仓。分析师警告，这不是韩国特有故事。“同类产品在美国和欧洲同样在快速增长。”如果类似事件发生在美国，传导路径将远比一个对冲基金清仓更具破坏力——它会穿透消费支出（被追加保证金的家庭削减开支）、信贷市场（券商和贷款机构重新评估抵押品）以及市场信心（散户参与度逆转）。德银将韩国的事件与另一个案例类比：表面上是一起孤立事件的硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭，实际上迫使政策制定者近乎为整个美国银行体系的存款提供担保——干预规模远超最初问题本身的量级。教训不是每件小事都会演变成系统性事件，而是那些最终演变的，事先几乎都不明显。同一病根：十年低利率积累的杠杆“AI股神”基金的爆仓，和KOSPI的闪崩，看似毫不相关。德银认为，两者是同一病症的不同症状：超过十年的低利率和稳定利率环境，系统性地鼓励了ETF、保证金账户和对冲基金账簿中杠杆的积累。这就像一栋楼的地基在多年缓慢沉降——表面看不出来，直到某个触发点让裂缝显现。分析师还观察到，市场和政策制定者的注意力长期集中在主权债务风险上，而家庭杠杆的风险被系统性低估——家庭杠杆增速虽趋于平台期，但绝对水平依然高企。当我们展示下面这张图时，客户的目光会落在主权债务的上升上，而不是家庭杠杆的平台期。这种“焦点偏移”，正是当前家庭杠杆风险被系统性低估的原因。“小波动”事件频繁发生，不是巧合德银的数据显示，2022年以来VIX的尖峰频率，明显高于过去十年的均值。分析师将这一现象与全球央行货币政策利率正常化直接挂钩：低利率时代，市场波动被压制，杠杆因此堆积；当利率回归正常，压制波动的力量消失，积累的杠杆开始寻找出口。自2022年利率正常化以来，VIX的“小波动”事件频率明显高于过去十年。与此同时，传统避险资产——黄金、美元、瑞郎、日元、美债、德债——自2020年以来，在多次冲击中均未能有效对冲风险，包括新冠疫情、2022年加息、2025年关税冲击和2026年伊朗战争。分析师写道：“如果避险资产在最需要的时候持续失效，投资者隐性依赖的那层缓冲就比以前薄得多。这提高了未来'小波动'事件演变为更大问题的概率。”沃什的转变：美联储在主动制造波动？德银在报告中提出了一个理解当前市场环境的关键框架——美联储的政策逻辑，可能已经发生了根本性转变。报告援引分析师Rob Armstrong的理论指出：美联储主席沃什撤回前瞻性指引，并非沟通失误，而是一种刻意为之的政策选择。其核心逻辑是：前瞻指引长期压制了日常波动，而过低的波动性，反过来鼓励了政府和市场参与者超出正常水平的借贷与杠杆积累。用Armstrong的话说，“日常波动过少，最终会导致金融危机。”沃什的解法，是将“不确定性溢价”重新引回市场——让市场重新感受到风险，从而自发约束过度杠杆行为。他无法公开表达这一逻辑，否则会直接引发市场恐慌，因此以更模糊的\"裁判\"式表述示人。但在Armstrong看来，政策行动已清晰指向同一方向。这一逻辑的深远含义在于：如果波动本身已成为政策工具，那么“小波动”事件的频繁出现，就不再只是市场的副产品，而是政策制定者有意为之、甚至乐见其成的结果。投资者应当停止把每一次“Situational Awareness式爆仓”或“KOSPI式闪崩”当作孤立偶发事件来处理——它们，可能正是新常态。积压的风险还在哪里德银在报告结尾列出了两个仍存在隐性积压风险的领域：私募股权：大量在近零利率时代收购的科技、媒体、电信（TMT）标的至今仍留在PE机构账上，因退出市场关闭而持有期远超预期。“清算时刻可能还在前方。”上市企业：许多上市公司仍背负着上一轮债务驱动并购热潮中收购的低效资产，资产周转率偏低——这是廉价融资鼓励“重营收轻利润”扩张的遗留痕迹。分析师写道：“市场的本能是把Situational Awareness基金崩盘和KOSPI波动归入'噪音'，因为两者目前都没有演变成系统性事件。这种本能可能是危险的，这种本能可能是危险的，尤其是在政策制定者不仅容忍、甚至可能主动引导更多日常波动的情况下。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KEP":2,"ESmain":2,"KT":2,".SPX":2,"ARTY":1.5,"VXUS":1.5,"KF":2,"KPOP":2,"DDI":2,".IXIC":2,"CHAT":1.5,"QQQ":2,"QTOC":1.5,"EWY":2,"VTHR":1.5,"NQmain":2,"SPEM":1.5,"SHG":2,"YMmain":2,"SKM":2,"MKOR":2,"SQQQ":2,"KB":2,"CPNG":2,"LPL":2,"FLKR":2,"PKX":2,".DJI":2,"KORU":2,"KDEF":2,"TQQQ":2,"GRVY":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573818931800493","authorId":"3573818931800493","name":"小肥狼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e84208dd37da6774cf295955acec8fc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3573818931800493","authorIdStr":"3573818931800493"},"content":"这就是先射箭后画靶，先把人抢光打死再强行按个罪名 [笑哭]","text":"这就是先射箭后画靶，先把人抢光打死再强行按个罪名 [笑哭]","html":"这就是先射箭后画靶，先把人抢光打死再强行按个罪名 [笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588031109202120,"gmtCreate":1784593708245,"gmtModify":1784593711941,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMD Helios 是“大包揽”套餐： AMD 的 Helios 机架不仅卖 GPU，它里面捆绑了整套全栈硬件——包括 6 代 EPYC (Venice) CPU、多达 12 块顶级 Pensando 网络芯片（DPU）、高性能存储和整机网路架构。 算的是“整机总包价”： 微软买 Helios，买的是“GPU + CPU + 交换机/DPU + 软件系统”的全套商业大礼包。拿这样一个“全家桶机架”的预估总价，去对比英伟达 Vera Rubin 的裸机或基础计算节点，价格自然会高出 40%。 AMD 官方自己都在强调“TCO（总拥有成本）低”： 图像第三张截图中，AMD 数据中心负责人 Forrest Norrod 也明确说了，其核心优势是“最佳总拥有成本”。如果单论芯片算力性价比它敢卖得比英伟达贵，云计算巨头根本不可能买账。媒体又要开始做空达子哥了","listText":"AMD Helios 是“大包揽”套餐： AMD 的 Helios 机架不仅卖 GPU，它里面捆绑了整套全栈硬件——包括 6 代 EPYC (Venice) CPU、多达 12 块顶级 Pensando 网络芯片（DPU）、高性能存储和整机网路架构。 算的是“整机总包价”： 微软买 Helios，买的是“GPU + CPU + 交换机/DPU + 软件系统”的全套商业大礼包。拿这样一个“全家桶机架”的预估总价，去对比英伟达 Vera Rubin 的裸机或基础计算节点，价格自然会高出 40%。 AMD 官方自己都在强调“TCO（总拥有成本）低”： 图像第三张截图中，AMD 数据中心负责人 Forrest Norrod 也明确说了，其核心优势是“最佳总拥有成本”。如果单论芯片算力性价比它敢卖得比英伟达贵，云计算巨头根本不可能买账。媒体又要开始做空达子哥了","text":"AMD Helios 是“大包揽”套餐： AMD 的 Helios 机架不仅卖 GPU，它里面捆绑了整套全栈硬件——包括 6 代 EPYC (Venice) CPU、多达 12 块顶级 Pensando 网络芯片（DPU）、高性能存储和整机网路架构。 算的是“整机总包价”： 微软买 Helios，买的是“GPU + CPU + 交换机/DPU + 软件系统”的全套商业大礼包。拿这样一个“全家桶机架”的预估总价，去对比英伟达 Vera Rubin 的裸机或基础计算节点，价格自然会高出 40%。 AMD 官方自己都在强调“TCO（总拥有成本）低”： 图像第三张截图中，AMD 数据中心负责人 Forrest Norrod 也明确说了，其核心优势是“最佳总拥有成本”。如果单论芯片算力性价比它敢卖得比英伟达贵，云计算巨头根本不可能买账。媒体又要开始做空达子哥了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588031109202120","repostId":"2653460892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2653460892","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784582244,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2653460892?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-21 05:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比Rubin贵四成却拿下微软全栈订单？AMD产品周前用“定价权”重新定义AI芯片竞争","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2653460892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"AMD凭借Helios机架级AI系统获微软Azure采购，此次合作实现\"GPU+CPU+网络\"全栈落地。研究机构Futurum Group估计，AMD Helios机架级AI系统售价在500万至550万美元之间，比英伟达Vera Rubin的350万至400万估价高出约40%。分析师预计其GPU市场份额有望从4.5%升至20%-25%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>数据中心GPU垄断地位的挑战，正从低价替代策略转向定价权叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>将在其Azure云平台上部署AMD的Helios机架级解决方案，用于驱动前沿模型AI推理工作负载。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group估计，在与微软达成的迄今最全面云合作协议中，Helios机架级AI系统以高于英伟达Rubin约40%的售价获得微软全栈采购</strong>，标志着AMD在AI基础设施市场的竞争逻辑出现了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软将在Azure上部署Helios用于前沿AI推理，同时引入第六代EPYC Venice CPU虚拟机系列及Pensando DPU。这是AMD首次在单一云客户中实现&#34;GPU+CPU+网络&#34;的全栈落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一芯片板块情绪回暖，叠加AMD本周晚些时候将举行大型产品发布活动，AMD股价一度大涨超5%，尾盘涨幅回落，收至1.58%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69b578399cb86b3bcdc34980c8cfdf05\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"766\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">比Rubin贵40%却照样卖</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易中一个易被忽视的数据是价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据全球性技术研究和顾问公司Futurum Group估计Helios售价在500万至550万美元之间，高于其对英伟达Vera Rubin 350万至400万美元的估价。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Helios每个计算托盘配备四块Instinct GPU，由单颗EPYC CPU驱动，并搭载多达12块Pensando网络芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AMD数据中心负责人Forrest Norrod称其核心优势在于&#34;最佳总拥有成本和最低每词元成本&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>交易并非仅止于GPU。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Azure将新增两个基于第六代EPYC Venice处理器的虚拟机系列，并在AI后端网络和部分服务中部署Pensando DPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着AMD在微软云中的角色，正从&#34;GPU供应商&#34;升级为&#34;综合AI基础设施提供商&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱近期将AMD目标价从500美元上调至665美元，认为其CPU上行空间在三家主要芯片股中&#34;最未被充分定价&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>该行预测AMD 2027年CPU收入将达约290亿美元，仅CPU一项到2030年可贡献约19美元每股盈利。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">产品周前的催化剂<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软的加入使AMD的Helios客户矩阵进一步加密。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>已承诺6吉瓦GPU部署，OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和印度TCS亦作出重大承诺。<strong>AMD称全球前十大AI公司中已有八家在其Instinct GPU上运行工作负载。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从财务数据看，2026年Q1数据中心营收同比增长57%至58亿美元，公司计划2027年起实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元数据中心AI营收，其中大部分来自Helios。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group分析师Daniel Newman认为AMD有望将数据中心GPU市场份额从当前的4.5%提升至20%-25%，&#34;这意味着数千亿美元的营收规模&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芯片板块周一整体反弹提供了有利的情绪背景。而本周产品发布的预期进一步强化了这一叙事，市场关注苏姿丰是否会给出更激进的2027年Helios出货指引。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">推理时代，软件或是护城河</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">硬件层面AMD已逼近甚至部分超越英伟达，但软件仍是关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，<strong>此前半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis高度评价英伟达在vLLM推理引擎上的性能优化，同时指出AMD在部分模型支持上仍有明显差距。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在软件层面，英伟达推出的Dynamo分布式推理框架将vLLM深度集成，专门针对MoE模型实现了预填充与解码分离（Disaggregated Serving）、高效KV缓存传输以及双批次重叠等优化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这套框架在NVL72上能够充分发挥硬件潜力，而AMD方面目前仍主要依赖标准vLLM与DISAGG版本，针对超大MoE模型与宽并行场景的深度优化尚未跟上。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达凭借二十年CUDA积累、主流框架优先适配及TensorRT等优化库构建的软件壁垒，在推理时代仍形成持久竞争优势。Counterpoint Research分析师Neil Shah同样指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在于软件和优化，英伟达凭借CUDA拥有更为成熟庞大的生态系统。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Newman提出的问题更为尖锐：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的胜出究竟源于技术领先，还是仅仅因为算力供应如此紧张，只要能造出来就有人买？</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品周来临之际，Helios能否在定价、性能、生态三个维度同时说服市场，将决定AMD究竟是真正撼动了英伟达的地位，还是仅在供应紧张期分到了一杯羹。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比Rubin贵四成却拿下微软全栈订单？AMD产品周前用“定价权”重新定义AI芯片竞争</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比Rubin贵四成却拿下微软全栈订单？AMD产品周前用“定价权”重新定义AI芯片竞争\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-21 05:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>数据中心GPU垄断地位的挑战，正从低价替代策略转向定价权叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，7月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>将在其Azure云平台上部署AMD的Helios机架级解决方案，用于驱动前沿模型AI推理工作负载。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group估计，在与微软达成的迄今最全面云合作协议中，Helios机架级AI系统以高于英伟达Rubin约40%的售价获得微软全栈采购</strong>，标志着AMD在AI基础设施市场的竞争逻辑出现了根本性转变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软将在Azure上部署Helios用于前沿AI推理，同时引入第六代EPYC Venice CPU虚拟机系列及Pensando DPU。这是AMD首次在单一云客户中实现&#34;GPU+CPU+网络&#34;的全栈落地。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一芯片板块情绪回暖，叠加AMD本周晚些时候将举行大型产品发布活动，AMD股价一度大涨超5%，尾盘涨幅回落，收至1.58%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69b578399cb86b3bcdc34980c8cfdf05\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"766\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">比Rubin贵40%却照样卖</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次交易中一个易被忽视的数据是价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据全球性技术研究和顾问公司Futurum Group估计Helios售价在500万至550万美元之间，高于其对英伟达Vera Rubin 350万至400万美元的估价。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Helios每个计算托盘配备四块Instinct GPU，由单颗EPYC CPU驱动，并搭载多达12块Pensando网络芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AMD数据中心负责人Forrest Norrod称其核心优势在于&#34;最佳总拥有成本和最低每词元成本&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>交易并非仅止于GPU。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Azure将新增两个基于第六代EPYC Venice处理器的虚拟机系列，并在AI后端网络和部分服务中部署Pensando DPU。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着AMD在微软云中的角色，正从&#34;GPU供应商&#34;升级为&#34;综合AI基础设施提供商&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱近期将AMD目标价从500美元上调至665美元，认为其CPU上行空间在三家主要芯片股中&#34;最未被充分定价&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>该行预测AMD 2027年CPU收入将达约290亿美元，仅CPU一项到2030年可贡献约19美元每股盈利。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">产品周前的催化剂<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">微软的加入使AMD的Helios客户矩阵进一步加密。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>已承诺6吉瓦GPU部署，OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和印度TCS亦作出重大承诺。<strong>AMD称全球前十大AI公司中已有八家在其Instinct GPU上运行工作负载。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从财务数据看，2026年Q1数据中心营收同比增长57%至58亿美元，公司计划2027年起实现<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元数据中心AI营收，其中大部分来自Helios。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Futurum Group分析师Daniel Newman认为AMD有望将数据中心GPU市场份额从当前的4.5%提升至20%-25%，&#34;这意味着数千亿美元的营收规模&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芯片板块周一整体反弹提供了有利的情绪背景。而本周产品发布的预期进一步强化了这一叙事，市场关注苏姿丰是否会给出更激进的2027年Helios出货指引。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">推理时代，软件或是护城河</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">硬件层面AMD已逼近甚至部分超越英伟达，但软件仍是关键变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，<strong>此前半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis高度评价英伟达在vLLM推理引擎上的性能优化，同时指出AMD在部分模型支持上仍有明显差距。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在软件层面，英伟达推出的Dynamo分布式推理框架将vLLM深度集成，专门针对MoE模型实现了预填充与解码分离（Disaggregated Serving）、高效KV缓存传输以及双批次重叠等优化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这套框架在NVL72上能够充分发挥硬件潜力，而AMD方面目前仍主要依赖标准vLLM与DISAGG版本，针对超大MoE模型与宽并行场景的深度优化尚未跟上。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达凭借二十年CUDA积累、主流框架优先适配及TensorRT等优化库构建的软件壁垒，在推理时代仍形成持久竞争优势。Counterpoint Research分析师Neil Shah同样指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在于软件和优化，英伟达凭借CUDA拥有更为成熟庞大的生态系统。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Newman提出的问题更为尖锐：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AMD的胜出究竟源于技术领先，还是仅仅因为算力供应如此紧张，只要能造出来就有人买？</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品周来临之际，Helios能否在定价、性能、生态三个维度同时说服市场，将决定AMD究竟是真正撼动了英伟达的地位，还是仅在供应紧张期分到了一杯羹。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c56afc0171892292c6eae02f98432fd","relate_stocks":{"LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0726765562.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) INC","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","LU2347655073.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC A","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989763005.USD":"东方汇理教育基金A2 Acc","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2404859667.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1670756490.USD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" 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SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777498","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2653460892","content_text":"AMD对英伟达数据中心GPU垄断地位的挑战，正从低价替代策略转向定价权叙事。华尔街见闻提及，7月20日，微软将在其Azure云平台上部署AMD的Helios机架级解决方案，用于驱动前沿模型AI推理工作负载。Futurum Group估计，在与微软达成的迄今最全面云合作协议中，Helios机架级AI系统以高于英伟达Rubin约40%的售价获得微软全栈采购，标志着AMD在AI基础设施市场的竞争逻辑出现了根本性转变。微软将在Azure上部署Helios用于前沿AI推理，同时引入第六代EPYC Venice CPU虚拟机系列及Pensando DPU。这是AMD首次在单一云客户中实现\"GPU+CPU+网络\"的全栈落地。周一芯片板块情绪回暖，叠加AMD本周晚些时候将举行大型产品发布活动，AMD股价一度大涨超5%，尾盘涨幅回落，收至1.58%。比Rubin贵40%却照样卖此次交易中一个易被忽视的数据是价格。据全球性技术研究和顾问公司Futurum Group估计Helios售价在500万至550万美元之间，高于其对英伟达Vera Rubin 350万至400万美元的估价。Helios每个计算托盘配备四块Instinct GPU，由单颗EPYC CPU驱动，并搭载多达12块Pensando网络芯片。AMD数据中心负责人Forrest Norrod称其核心优势在于\"最佳总拥有成本和最低每词元成本\"。交易并非仅止于GPU。亚马逊Azure将新增两个基于第六代EPYC Venice处理器的虚拟机系列，并在AI后端网络和部分服务中部署Pensando DPU。这意味着AMD在微软云中的角色，正从\"GPU供应商\"升级为\"综合AI基础设施提供商\"。巴克莱近期将AMD目标价从500美元上调至665美元，认为其CPU上行空间在三家主要芯片股中\"最未被充分定价\"。该行预测AMD 2027年CPU收入将达约290亿美元，仅CPU一项到2030年可贡献约19美元每股盈利。产品周前的催化剂矩阵微软的加入使AMD的Helios客户矩阵进一步加密。此前Meta已承诺6吉瓦GPU部署，OpenAI、甲骨文和印度TCS亦作出重大承诺。AMD称全球前十大AI公司中已有八家在其Instinct GPU上运行工作负载。从财务数据看，2026年Q1数据中心营收同比增长57%至58亿美元，公司计划2027年起实现数百亿美元数据中心AI营收，其中大部分来自Helios。Futurum Group分析师Daniel Newman认为AMD有望将数据中心GPU市场份额从当前的4.5%提升至20%-25%，\"这意味着数千亿美元的营收规模\"。芯片板块周一整体反弹提供了有利的情绪背景。而本周产品发布的预期进一步强化了这一叙事，市场关注苏姿丰是否会给出更激进的2027年Helios出货指引。推理时代，软件或是护城河硬件层面AMD已逼近甚至部分超越英伟达，但软件仍是关键变量。华尔街见闻提及，此前半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis高度评价英伟达在vLLM推理引擎上的性能优化，同时指出AMD在部分模型支持上仍有明显差距。在软件层面，英伟达推出的Dynamo分布式推理框架将vLLM深度集成，专门针对MoE模型实现了预填充与解码分离（Disaggregated Serving）、高效KV缓存传输以及双批次重叠等优化。这套框架在NVL72上能够充分发挥硬件潜力，而AMD方面目前仍主要依赖标准vLLM与DISAGG版本，针对超大MoE模型与宽并行场景的深度优化尚未跟上。英伟达凭借二十年CUDA积累、主流框架优先适配及TensorRT等优化库构建的软件壁垒，在推理时代仍形成持久竞争优势。Counterpoint Research分析师Neil Shah同样指出：关键在于软件和优化，英伟达凭借CUDA拥有更为成熟庞大的生态系统。Newman提出的问题更为尖锐：AMD的胜出究竟源于技术领先，还是仅仅因为算力供应如此紧张，只要能造出来就有人买？在产品周来临之际，Helios能否在定价、性能、生态三个维度同时说服市场，将决定AMD究竟是真正撼动了英伟达的地位，还是仅在供应紧张期分到了一杯羹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMYY":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"QQQA":0.6,"MSFT":1.86,"VGT":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"AMDS":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"CNAV":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"AMD":2.1,"MSFW":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":478736577716960,"gmtCreate":1757910447830,"gmtModify":1757914934482,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这是在意淫吗？[回头]&nbsp; 对标苹果17你怎么敢的","listText":"这是在意淫吗？[回头]&nbsp; 对标苹果17你怎么敢的","text":"这是在意淫吗？[回头] 对标苹果17你怎么敢的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/478736577716960","repostId":"1179530372","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179530372","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1757904329,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179530372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-15 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"雷军发微博称，小米17系列，全面对标iPhone","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179530372","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。</p><p>目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04bb0b4961a44f951d9ff099f3bfa450\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n雷军发微博称，小米17系列，全面对标iPhone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-15 10:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。</p><p>目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04bb0b4961a44f951d9ff099f3bfa450\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b330c7a5fe2b62c4d008bd67f85ddd","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179530372","content_text":"9月15日，小米集团董事长雷军微博称，小米17系列，产品力跨代升级，全面对标iPhone，正面迎战！此前，小米集团合伙人、总裁卢伟冰发文称，过去5年，我们研发投入超过1000亿人民币，未来5年投入将加码到2000亿人民币。这一次，在小米17系列上，大家将会看到我们一系列最新成果的呈现。目前，小米港股涨超1%，报55.85港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477579200627504,"gmtCreate":1757606065816,"gmtModify":1757606084426,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你们训练的还能用吗[汗颜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"你们训练的还能用吗[汗颜]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"你们训练的还能用吗[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477579200627504","repostId":"1199011675","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199011675","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1757605896,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199011675?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-11 23:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片训练人工智能模型","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199011675","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"阿里巴巴直线拉升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>直线拉升，截至发稿涨幅超8%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> 涨近5%。消息称<strong>阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片来训练人工智能模型。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad1dfa27f4270aba5885dfec95e8266\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80455325aaccaf597c796d37f65b82ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息：阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片训练人工智能模型</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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class=\"h-time\">2025-09-11 23:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>直线拉升，截至发稿涨幅超8%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> 涨近5%。消息称<strong>阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片来训练人工智能模型。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad1dfa27f4270aba5885dfec95e8266\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80455325aaccaf597c796d37f65b82ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66fa9e63945fcaa67212790e2606b678","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199011675","content_text":"周四，阿里巴巴直线拉升，截至发稿涨幅超8%， 百度 涨近5%。消息称阿里巴巴、百度使用自主研发的芯片来训练人工智能模型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":1.1,"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606645073311048,"gmtCreate":1789130297804,"gmtModify":1789131859507,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吹牛逼！真加息我给手机吃了","listText":"吹牛逼！真加息我给手机吃了","text":"吹牛逼！真加息我给手机吃了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606645073311048","repostId":"1132607198","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132607198","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"快讯推送自媒体","home_visible":0,"media_name":"老虎快讯","id":"1061542828","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6fb3c0336a0e7c79225e5feb8bd9d842"},"pubTimestamp":1789129864,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132607198?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-11 20:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，符合市场预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132607198","media":"老虎快讯","summary":"美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，预估为3.4%，前值为3.4%","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，预估为3.4%，前值为3.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI数据公布后，市场预计下周美联储加息的概率约为90%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局周五报告显示，面临伊朗战争、关税以及数据中心建设带来的持续压力，上个月通胀向美联储目标迈进的进展甚微。此前，一些官员曾暗示9月15日至16日的决策将取决于数据表现；鉴于此次数据，美联储很可能会认为这将促成三年来的首次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着投资者加大对加息的押注，美国国债收益率上升，股指期货保持高位。美联储主席沃什此前一直不愿透露美联储下一步行动的意向。与此同时，受中东冲突及俄乌战争冲击供应的影响，美国经济正面临能源价格反弹的挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周，油价突破每桶100美元，美国零售柴油价格也创下历史新高</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，符合市场预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，预估为3.4%，前值为3.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI数据公布后，市场预计下周美联储加息的概率约为90%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局周五报告显示，面临伊朗战争、关税以及数据中心建设带来的持续压力，上个月通胀向美联储目标迈进的进展甚微。此前，一些官员曾暗示9月15日至16日的决策将取决于数据表现；鉴于此次数据，美联储很可能会认为这将促成三年来的首次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着投资者加大对加息的押注，美国国债收益率上升，股指期货保持高位。美联储主席沃什此前一直不愿透露美联储下一步行动的意向。与此同时，受中东冲突及俄乌战争冲击供应的影响，美国经济正面临能源价格反弹的挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本周，油价突破每桶100美元，美国零售柴油价格也创下历史新高</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132607198","content_text":"美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，预估为3.4%，前值为3.4%。美国8月CPI数据公布后，市场预计下周美联储加息的概率约为90%。美国劳工统计局周五报告显示，面临伊朗战争、关税以及数据中心建设带来的持续压力，上个月通胀向美联储目标迈进的进展甚微。此前，一些官员曾暗示9月15日至16日的决策将取决于数据表现；鉴于此次数据，美联储很可能会认为这将促成三年来的首次加息。随着投资者加大对加息的押注，美国国债收益率上升，股指期货保持高位。美联储主席沃什此前一直不愿透露美联储下一步行动的意向。与此同时，受中东冲突及俄乌战争冲击供应的影响，美国经济正面临能源价格反弹的挑战。本周，油价突破每桶100美元，美国零售柴油价格也创下历史新高","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593737382998744,"gmtCreate":1785972100325,"gmtModify":1785972102390,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街这帮货给存储收入订的到底有多高？没一个及格的","listText":"华尔街这帮货给存储收入订的到底有多高？没一个及格的","text":"华尔街这帮货给存储收入订的到底有多高？没一个及格的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593737382998744","repostId":"1115857594","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115857594","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1785970822,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115857594?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-06 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI需求力挺闪迪上季营收超预期增近四倍，拟豪掷140亿回购，但本季指引逊色","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115857594","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"与此同时，闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，当前总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。第四财季营收和盈利均超预期 毛利率表现尤其亮眼闪迪第四财季营收89.7亿美元，高于市场预期的约86亿美元。闪迪第四财季调整后EPS为39.25美元，明显高于市场预期的34.37美元，环比增长68%。闪迪还预计，第一财季调整后EPS为44至46美元，指引中值为45美元，略低于市场预期的约45.58美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季，闪迪营收、EPS和毛利率均创单季新高，EPS较分析师预期高逾10%，毛利率超预期升至84.6%、为一年前的三倍多；数据中心收入同比增近13倍、环比翻一倍，最大收入源边缘计算业务收入同比增近四倍，消费业务收入同比降5%；全财年营收较上年增长175%。第一财季营收指引中值同比增359%、仍较分析师预期低5.5%，EPS指引中值略低于预期，毛利率指引大致持平前季。股价盘后跌超6%。 </p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI存储需求的推动下，存储芯片龙头闪迪（Sandisk）上一财季业绩出乎意料地强劲，但本季指引未能达到华尔街的更炸裂增长期待。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间5日周三美股盘后，闪迪公布，截至2026年7月3日的公司第四财季，营收同比增长372%至89.7亿美元，较市场预期高4.3%；非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）39.25美元、为一年前水平0.29美元的135倍，较分析师预期高逾10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受存储需求、价格和数据中心业务拉动，闪迪第四财季盈利能力显著改善，调整后毛利率达到84.6%，为一年前的3.2倍，高于市场预期的81.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">整个2026财年，闪迪营收较上年增长175%至202.5亿美元，显示本轮NAND上行周期和AI基础设施相关需求对公司收入体量的拉动已相当显著。闪迪公告称，全财年营收优异主要得益于客户结构的优化、向高价值客户倾斜，以及产品定价提升，并提到，全财年数据中心业务收入增长437%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪CEO David Goeckeler称，第四财季公司交出了创纪录的营收、EPS和毛利率成绩单，到2026财年结束时，闪迪已建立起“领先的技术组合”，并将数据中心业务确立为关键增长支柱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0536100afdd1a660e1f8e7a762e604b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，当前总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。对于经历7月暴跌、估值快速回落的闪迪而言，大规模回购无疑是管理层释放信心的重要信号，也为股价提供潜在支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，财报公布后，周三常规交易时段收跌5.4%的闪迪股价并未止跌回涨，财报发布后，盘后跌超6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7d07247e2830390c3d4100e0f85eca60\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"470\" tg-height=\"132\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，股价大跌的关键原因并不在于第四财季业绩本身，而在于闪迪的本财季营收指引低于市场预期，调整后EPS指引区间基本落在市场预期附近。毛利率指引环比大致持平，有见顶迹象。闪迪是AI存储交易的主要受益者，市场对该司销售增长怀有极高的期望，股价表现显示，“超预期的过去”未能完全抵消“略低于预期的未来”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报公布前，华尔街非常看好闪迪，市场已经在交易NAND供需紧张、AI存储需求上行、毛利率高企和大规模回购等利好。过去一个月，分析师对闪迪2027财年的EPS预期上调约14%。媒体统计，30位覆盖闪迪的分析师中，25位给出买入评级，无一建议卖出，平均目标价2433美元，意味着较本周二收盘价还有约70%的上涨空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，当闪迪上财季业绩超预期但本季营收指引不及预期时，投资者更容易选择获利了结或降低风险敞口，尤其是在半导体板块近期整体承压、AI交易出现拥挤松动的背景下，任何“不够强”的指引影响都可能被放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周发布财报的韩国存储巨头SK海力士也给过市场类似警示：就算利润同比大幅增长，只要没有达到已被抬高的预期，股价也可能急剧下跌。闪迪这次的盘后反应本质上也是同一逻辑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>第四财季营收和盈利均超预期 毛利率表现尤其亮眼</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪第四财季营收89.7亿美元，高于市场预期的约86亿美元。当季营收环比增长51%，同比大幅增长372%、较第三财季的同比增幅251%进一步提速，体现出存储周期上行、价格改善以及AI相关需求扩张的共同推动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利端表现更强。闪迪第四财季调整后EPS为39.25美元，明显高于市场预期的34.37美元，环比增长68%。调整后营业利润达到71.0亿美元，同样环比增长68%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毛利率是第四财季财报中最突出的指标之一。闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率为84.6%，高于市场预期的81.5%，同比提升58.2个百分点。这意味着公司不仅受益于收入放量，也明显受益于产品定价、成本结构和产能利用率的改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在当前存储行业上行阶段，价格弹性往往直接传导至毛利率和利润率。第四财季的毛利率水平显示，闪迪在NAND供需偏紧、AI服务器和高端存储需求增长的背景下，仍具备较强的定价能力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>数据中心成为新增长支柱 边缘计算业务仍是最大收入来源</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分终端市场看，数据中心业务是本季增长最受关注的亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第四财季，闪迪数据中心收入为29.8亿美元，环比增长103%，同比增长1298%、即增近13倍。这表明在AI基础设施投资持续扩张的背景下，闪迪正从传统消费和边缘存储公司，逐步向数据中心存储供应商转型。管理层也在财报中强调，数据中心已经成为公司的关键增长支柱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">边缘计算（Edge）业务仍是闪迪当前最大收入来源，第四财季收入54.3亿美元，环比增长48%，同比增长392%。这一业务的大幅扩张说明，除数据中心外，企业端、终端设备、边缘计算和相关存储需求仍在贡献主要收入体量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比之下，消费类（Consumer）业务表现偏弱，第四财季收入5.56亿美元，环比下降32%，同比下降5%。这一部分反映出传统消费电子需求仍未完全恢复，也说明闪迪本轮增长的核心并不在消费端，而在企业级、数据中心和高附加值存储市场。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>闪迪全财年营收增长175% 显著受益于存储上行周期</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026财年，闪迪实现营收202.5亿美元，较上年增长175%。这一增速在半导体硬件公司中相当罕见，背后既有行业周期因素，也有AI基础设施投资带来的结构性需求变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年，NAND市场供需关系持续改善，行业库存去化、资本开支纪律和AI服务器存储需求共同推动价格上行。此前美国银行等机构也预计，NAND市场供需失衡可能延续至2027年，价格有望继续保持强劲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是为什么在财报前，市场普遍预计闪迪第四财季会录得营收和利润大幅增长。真正的问题并不是公司能否交出高增长数字，而是能否在已经非常高的预期之上继续显著超预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从这次财报看，第四财季结果确实强劲，收入、EPS和毛利率都强于市场预期。但在股价交易层面，投资者更关心下一阶段增长斜率是否继续上修。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>第一财季营收指引逊色是盘后股价承压的核心</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪预计，2027财年第一财季营收为103亿至108亿美元，区间中值约105.5亿美元，相当于同比增长359%，较分析师预期的111.6亿美元低近5.5%。这是盘后股价加速下跌的最直接原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪还预计，第一财季调整后EPS为44至46美元，指引中值为45美元，略低于市场预期的约45.58美元。也就是说，EPS指引大致符合预期，但并未明显超预期。调整后毛利率指引为83.0%至85.0%，相较第四财季的84.6%，基本维持高位，但也没有进一步显著扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于普通公司而言，下一财季营收仍将环比增长、EPS维持高位，可能已经是不错的展望。但对闪迪而言，市场定价的门槛更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报前，期权市场对闪迪财报后单向波动的定价幅度高达14%，说明投资者本就预期财报会引发剧烈波动。刚刚过去的今年7月，闪迪股价累计暴跌47%，市值蒸发逾1500亿美元，市场情绪高度脆弱。在这种背景下，低于预期的营收指引足以触发盘后卖压。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>140亿美元回购释放信心 但短期难抵消指引压力</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，使公司总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。以公司经历大幅回调后的市值来看，这一回购规模相当可观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大规模回购通常有三层含义：一是管理层认为公司现金流和资产负债表足以支撑资本回报；二是管理层可能认为当前股价具备吸引力；三是回购可在一定程度上提升每股收益，对股价形成中长期支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，回购更多是中长期因素，短期交易中仍要让位于业绩指引和预期变化。尤其是在财报日这样的事件窗口，投资者通常首先反应的是下一财季营收、利润率和需求趋势。闪迪回购计划虽然积极，但未能抵消营收指引低于预期带来的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，公司预计下一财季稀释后流通股数约1.55亿股。如果回购持续执行，将可能进一步优化每股指标，但具体影响仍取决于回购节奏、股价水平和未来现金流表现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>毛利率高位维持 市场关注能否持续</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率84.6%，第一财季指引为83%至85%。这说明公司预计利润率仍将维持在极高水平，没有进一步明显抬升、有见顶迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从基本面角度看，这并不是坏消息。能够在营收继续扩张的同时维持80%以上调整后毛利率，说明行业供需结构仍然有利，公司产品组合和价格环境仍处在较强区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但从交易角度看，问题在于市场是否已经将这一毛利率水平充分计入估值。如果投资者此前押注毛利率继续超预期扩张，那么“高位持平”也可能被视为缺少新的上修催化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也是闪迪盘后股价下跌的一个潜在原因：财报没有证伪多头逻辑，但也没有提供足够强的新证据让市场重新上调预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>半导体板块情绪仍脆弱 闪迪处在高Beta位置</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪股价周三常规交易时段已收跌5.4%，说明财报前投资者情绪并不稳固。财报公布后，股价盘后加速下跌，反映出市场对指引低于预期的反应较为迅速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这与近期半导体板块整体环境有关。闪迪股价7月累跌47%，整个芯片板块也明显承压，费城半导体指数当月累跌21%，创2008年来最大月度跌幅。AI相关交易在经历长时间上涨后，估值和仓位都处于较高水平，一旦市场对增长斜率产生疑问，高Beta个股往往首当其冲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪正是存储芯片交易中弹性较高的标的之一。上行周期中，它受益于价格上涨、利润率扩张和AI需求；但在市场风险偏好下降、投资者开始重新审视增长预期时，其股价波动也会明显放大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从本次财报来看，闪迪的基本面仍然强劲，尤其是数据中心业务增速、毛利率和全年收入增长都支撑了闪迪的长期故事。但短期股价表现显示，在当前市场环境下，仅仅交出一份“好财报”并不足够，投资者要求的是持续上修的前景和更强的业绩指引。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI需求力挺闪迪上季营收超预期增近四倍，拟豪掷140亿回购，但本季指引逊色</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI需求力挺闪迪上季营收超预期增近四倍，拟豪掷140亿回购，但本季指引逊色\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-06 07:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778788><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>第四财季，闪迪营收、EPS和毛利率均创单季新高，EPS较分析师预期高逾10%，毛利率超预期升至84.6%、为一年前的三倍多；数据中心收入同比增近13倍、环比翻一倍，最大收入源边缘计算业务收入同比增近四倍，消费业务收入同比降5%；全财年营收较上年增长175%。第一财季营收指引中值同比增359%、仍较分析师预期低5.5%，EPS指引中值略低于预期，毛利率指引大致持平前季。股价盘后跌超6%。 在AI存储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778788\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4b4cc944a1435f521642742c0d4f37b","relate_stocks":{"SNDU":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-T-REX","SNXX":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDG":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Leverage Shares","SNDQ":"2倍做空SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDK":"闪迪","SNDC":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Corgi"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778788","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115857594","content_text":"第四财季，闪迪营收、EPS和毛利率均创单季新高，EPS较分析师预期高逾10%，毛利率超预期升至84.6%、为一年前的三倍多；数据中心收入同比增近13倍、环比翻一倍，最大收入源边缘计算业务收入同比增近四倍，消费业务收入同比降5%；全财年营收较上年增长175%。第一财季营收指引中值同比增359%、仍较分析师预期低5.5%，EPS指引中值略低于预期，毛利率指引大致持平前季。股价盘后跌超6%。 在AI存储需求的推动下，存储芯片龙头闪迪（Sandisk）上一财季业绩出乎意料地强劲，但本季指引未能达到华尔街的更炸裂增长期待。美东时间5日周三美股盘后，闪迪公布，截至2026年7月3日的公司第四财季，营收同比增长372%至89.7亿美元，较市场预期高4.3%；非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）39.25美元、为一年前水平0.29美元的135倍，较分析师预期高逾10%。受存储需求、价格和数据中心业务拉动，闪迪第四财季盈利能力显著改善，调整后毛利率达到84.6%，为一年前的3.2倍，高于市场预期的81.5%。整个2026财年，闪迪营收较上年增长175%至202.5亿美元，显示本轮NAND上行周期和AI基础设施相关需求对公司收入体量的拉动已相当显著。闪迪公告称，全财年营收优异主要得益于客户结构的优化、向高价值客户倾斜，以及产品定价提升，并提到，全财年数据中心业务收入增长437%。闪迪CEO David Goeckeler称，第四财季公司交出了创纪录的营收、EPS和毛利率成绩单，到2026财年结束时，闪迪已建立起“领先的技术组合”，并将数据中心业务确立为关键增长支柱。与此同时，闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，当前总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。对于经历7月暴跌、估值快速回落的闪迪而言，大规模回购无疑是管理层释放信心的重要信号，也为股价提供潜在支撑。不过，财报公布后，周三常规交易时段收跌5.4%的闪迪股价并未止跌回涨，财报发布后，盘后跌超6%。分析认为，股价大跌的关键原因并不在于第四财季业绩本身，而在于闪迪的本财季营收指引低于市场预期，调整后EPS指引区间基本落在市场预期附近。毛利率指引环比大致持平，有见顶迹象。闪迪是AI存储交易的主要受益者，市场对该司销售增长怀有极高的期望，股价表现显示，“超预期的过去”未能完全抵消“略低于预期的未来”。财报公布前，华尔街非常看好闪迪，市场已经在交易NAND供需紧张、AI存储需求上行、毛利率高企和大规模回购等利好。过去一个月，分析师对闪迪2027财年的EPS预期上调约14%。媒体统计，30位覆盖闪迪的分析师中，25位给出买入评级，无一建议卖出，平均目标价2433美元，意味着较本周二收盘价还有约70%的上涨空间。因此，当闪迪上财季业绩超预期但本季营收指引不及预期时，投资者更容易选择获利了结或降低风险敞口，尤其是在半导体板块近期整体承压、AI交易出现拥挤松动的背景下，任何“不够强”的指引影响都可能被放大。上周发布财报的韩国存储巨头SK海力士也给过市场类似警示：就算利润同比大幅增长，只要没有达到已被抬高的预期，股价也可能急剧下跌。闪迪这次的盘后反应本质上也是同一逻辑。第四财季营收和盈利均超预期 毛利率表现尤其亮眼闪迪第四财季营收89.7亿美元，高于市场预期的约86亿美元。当季营收环比增长51%，同比大幅增长372%、较第三财季的同比增幅251%进一步提速，体现出存储周期上行、价格改善以及AI相关需求扩张的共同推动。盈利端表现更强。闪迪第四财季调整后EPS为39.25美元，明显高于市场预期的34.37美元，环比增长68%。调整后营业利润达到71.0亿美元，同样环比增长68%。毛利率是第四财季财报中最突出的指标之一。闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率为84.6%，高于市场预期的81.5%，同比提升58.2个百分点。这意味着公司不仅受益于收入放量，也明显受益于产品定价、成本结构和产能利用率的改善。在当前存储行业上行阶段，价格弹性往往直接传导至毛利率和利润率。第四财季的毛利率水平显示，闪迪在NAND供需偏紧、AI服务器和高端存储需求增长的背景下，仍具备较强的定价能力。数据中心成为新增长支柱 边缘计算业务仍是最大收入来源分终端市场看，数据中心业务是本季增长最受关注的亮点。第四财季，闪迪数据中心收入为29.8亿美元，环比增长103%，同比增长1298%、即增近13倍。这表明在AI基础设施投资持续扩张的背景下，闪迪正从传统消费和边缘存储公司，逐步向数据中心存储供应商转型。管理层也在财报中强调，数据中心已经成为公司的关键增长支柱。边缘计算（Edge）业务仍是闪迪当前最大收入来源，第四财季收入54.3亿美元，环比增长48%，同比增长392%。这一业务的大幅扩张说明，除数据中心外，企业端、终端设备、边缘计算和相关存储需求仍在贡献主要收入体量。相比之下，消费类（Consumer）业务表现偏弱，第四财季收入5.56亿美元，环比下降32%，同比下降5%。这一部分反映出传统消费电子需求仍未完全恢复，也说明闪迪本轮增长的核心并不在消费端，而在企业级、数据中心和高附加值存储市场。闪迪全财年营收增长175% 显著受益于存储上行周期2026财年，闪迪实现营收202.5亿美元，较上年增长175%。这一增速在半导体硬件公司中相当罕见，背后既有行业周期因素，也有AI基础设施投资带来的结构性需求变化。过去一年，NAND市场供需关系持续改善，行业库存去化、资本开支纪律和AI服务器存储需求共同推动价格上行。此前美国银行等机构也预计，NAND市场供需失衡可能延续至2027年，价格有望继续保持强劲。这也是为什么在财报前，市场普遍预计闪迪第四财季会录得营收和利润大幅增长。真正的问题并不是公司能否交出高增长数字，而是能否在已经非常高的预期之上继续显著超预期。从这次财报看，第四财季结果确实强劲，收入、EPS和毛利率都强于市场预期。但在股价交易层面，投资者更关心下一阶段增长斜率是否继续上修。第一财季营收指引逊色是盘后股价承压的核心闪迪预计，2027财年第一财季营收为103亿至108亿美元，区间中值约105.5亿美元，相当于同比增长359%，较分析师预期的111.6亿美元低近5.5%。这是盘后股价加速下跌的最直接原因。闪迪还预计，第一财季调整后EPS为44至46美元，指引中值为45美元，略低于市场预期的约45.58美元。也就是说，EPS指引大致符合预期，但并未明显超预期。调整后毛利率指引为83.0%至85.0%，相较第四财季的84.6%，基本维持高位，但也没有进一步显著扩张。对于普通公司而言，下一财季营收仍将环比增长、EPS维持高位，可能已经是不错的展望。但对闪迪而言，市场定价的门槛更高。财报前，期权市场对闪迪财报后单向波动的定价幅度高达14%，说明投资者本就预期财报会引发剧烈波动。刚刚过去的今年7月，闪迪股价累计暴跌47%，市值蒸发逾1500亿美元，市场情绪高度脆弱。在这种背景下，低于预期的营收指引足以触发盘后卖压。140亿美元回购释放信心 但短期难抵消指引压力闪迪董事会批准新的140亿美元股票回购计划，使公司总剩余回购授权达到155亿美元。以公司经历大幅回调后的市值来看，这一回购规模相当可观。大规模回购通常有三层含义：一是管理层认为公司现金流和资产负债表足以支撑资本回报；二是管理层可能认为当前股价具备吸引力；三是回购可在一定程度上提升每股收益，对股价形成中长期支撑。不过，回购更多是中长期因素，短期交易中仍要让位于业绩指引和预期变化。尤其是在财报日这样的事件窗口，投资者通常首先反应的是下一财季营收、利润率和需求趋势。闪迪回购计划虽然积极，但未能抵消营收指引低于预期带来的压力。值得注意的是，公司预计下一财季稀释后流通股数约1.55亿股。如果回购持续执行，将可能进一步优化每股指标，但具体影响仍取决于回购节奏、股价水平和未来现金流表现。毛利率高位维持 市场关注能否持续闪迪第四财季调整后毛利率84.6%，第一财季指引为83%至85%。这说明公司预计利润率仍将维持在极高水平，没有进一步明显抬升、有见顶迹象。从基本面角度看，这并不是坏消息。能够在营收继续扩张的同时维持80%以上调整后毛利率，说明行业供需结构仍然有利，公司产品组合和价格环境仍处在较强区间。但从交易角度看，问题在于市场是否已经将这一毛利率水平充分计入估值。如果投资者此前押注毛利率继续超预期扩张，那么“高位持平”也可能被视为缺少新的上修催化。这也是闪迪盘后股价下跌的一个潜在原因：财报没有证伪多头逻辑，但也没有提供足够强的新证据让市场重新上调预期。半导体板块情绪仍脆弱 闪迪处在高Beta位置闪迪股价周三常规交易时段已收跌5.4%，说明财报前投资者情绪并不稳固。财报公布后，股价盘后加速下跌，反映出市场对指引低于预期的反应较为迅速。这与近期半导体板块整体环境有关。闪迪股价7月累跌47%，整个芯片板块也明显承压，费城半导体指数当月累跌21%，创2008年来最大月度跌幅。AI相关交易在经历长时间上涨后，估值和仓位都处于较高水平，一旦市场对增长斜率产生疑问，高Beta个股往往首当其冲。闪迪正是存储芯片交易中弹性较高的标的之一。上行周期中，它受益于价格上涨、利润率扩张和AI需求；但在市场风险偏好下降、投资者开始重新审视增长预期时，其股价波动也会明显放大。从本次财报来看，闪迪的基本面仍然强劲，尤其是数据中心业务增速、毛利率和全年收入增长都支撑了闪迪的长期故事。但短期股价表现显示，在当前市场环境下，仅仅交出一份“好财报”并不足够，投资者要求的是持续上修的前景和更强的业绩指引。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDG":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SNDK":2,"SNDQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581422729040440,"gmtCreate":1782979088850,"gmtModify":1782979090805,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这是今年最大的单日跌幅吗？","listText":"这是今年最大的单日跌幅吗？","text":"这是今年最大的单日跌幅吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581422729040440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537270974427152,"gmtCreate":1772190539901,"gmtModify":1772190542133,"author":{"id":"4193638932436702","authorId":"4193638932436702","name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorIdStr":"4193638932436702"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"早晚还的涨","listText":"早晚还的涨","text":"早晚还的涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537270974427152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}