悠闲54321的个人主页 - 老虎社区

悠闲54321

悠闲54321

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12-10 17:04

$京东工业(07618)$ 幸亏没打[龇牙] 鸡肋

12-10 14:33

做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？

期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？

12-10 14:20

$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$ 这只股票如果中签，我留着！figr我中签了900股，赚了1万多美元，当是获利回吐了！老虎最近没有美股申购了😅

12-09 09:39

$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$ 申购一下

12-08 16:34

$宝济药业-B(02659)$

12-07

$京东工业(07618)$ 申购热情不高啊？

12-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一个个穷鬼没事就评论世界首富如何画饼，挺可笑的！

11-28

$纳芯微(02676)$ 有a股打必亏

11-28

$天域半导体(02658)$ 申购意愿不高啊

11-26

$海伟股份(09609)$

11-20

$创新实业(02788)$ 中2000股

11-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 物理ai才是ai的落地闭环🌹

11-14

美股相信，a股不信😂

11-12

$百利天恒(02615)$ 坑人坑过不下去了

11-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 押注特斯拉，为的不是收益而是梦想🌹

11-07

$百利天恒(02615)$ A股太黑了，不打新了（有a+h)价格不好的不打，坑人啊😛

11-06

$乐舒适(02698)$

11-04

$均胜电子(00699)$ A股29，不知道能不能赚钱

11-04

$文远知行-W(00800)$ 美股10美元，不知道能不能吃到肉🌹

11-04

$小马智行-W(02026)$ 还好中的不多，这种没良心的公司不能买😭

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鸡肋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509239462027512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509222396125968,"gmtCreate":1765348435595,"gmtModify":1765348437664,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？","listText":"做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？","text":"做空又鼻青脸肿的了吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509222396125968","repostId":"1189549161","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189549161","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1764748724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189549161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-03 15:58","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189549161","media":"期权女巫","summary":"最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉的股价“荒谬地高估”，并指出在马斯克提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”，并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价<strong>“荒谬地高估”</strong>，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。</p><p>Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。</p><p>该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd47663a499b877c20380b5c4656420c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：</strong></p><p>11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）</p><p>11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）</p><p>Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：</p><h4 id=\"id_914544632\">指控一，特斯拉高估值</h4><p>以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。</p><p>即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。</p><p>也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。</p><h4 id=\"id_358471813\">指控二，马斯克损害股东利益</h4><p>2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。</p><p>如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。</p><h4 id=\"id_3348701816\">Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空</h4><p>2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。</p><p>2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。</p><p></p><p>针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：</p><h2 id=\"id_3497513190\">一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵</p></li><li><p>特斯拉估值重估</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL</p></li><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：413.02（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/10CzWz8\" title=\"TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL \" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706f0b9e0572dd478419166ca45a54b5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_763220772\">二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略</p></li><li><p>Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL</p></li><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：441.95（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/70CzZYe\" title=\"TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8e27e903407bc266095b990953e7df\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-03 15:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价<strong>“荒谬地高估”</strong>，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。</p><p>Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。</p><p>该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd47663a499b877c20380b5c4656420c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：</strong></p><p>11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）</p><p>11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）</p><p>Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：</p><h4 id=\"id_914544632\">指控一，特斯拉高估值</h4><p>以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。</p><p>即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。</p><p>也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。</p><h4 id=\"id_358471813\">指控二，马斯克损害股东利益</h4><p>2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。</p><p>如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。</p><h4 id=\"id_3348701816\">Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空</h4><p>2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。</p><p>2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。</p><p></p><p>针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：</p><h2 id=\"id_3497513190\">一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵</p></li><li><p>特斯拉估值重估</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL</p></li><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：413.02（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/10CzWz8\" title=\"TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL \" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706f0b9e0572dd478419166ca45a54b5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_763220772\">二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略</p></li><li><p>Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL</p></li><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：441.95（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/70CzZYe\" title=\"TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8e27e903407bc266095b990953e7df\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189549161","content_text":"最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价“荒谬地高估”，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：指控一，特斯拉高估值以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。指控二，马斯克损害股东利益2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）逻辑Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵特斯拉估值重估结构卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL盈亏平衡点（到期）：413.02（目前价位429.24）TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）逻辑Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空结构买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL盈亏平衡点（到期）：441.95（目前价位429.24）TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":2,"TSLA":2,"TSLR":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509218996609824,"gmtCreate":1765347607544,"gmtModify":1765347609876,"author":{"id":"4185497195462182","authorId":"4185497195462182","name":"悠闲54321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e959ff00bccf19f014b59a4a97b5cc8","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185497195462182","idStr":"4185497195462182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03887\">$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$</a>&nbsp; 这只股票如果中签，我留着！figr我中签了900股，赚了1万多美元，当是获利回吐了！老虎最近没有美股申购了😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03887\">$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$</a>&nbsp; 这只股票如果中签，我留着！figr我中签了900股，赚了1万多美元，当是获利回吐了！老虎最近没有美股申购了😅","text":"$HASHKEY HLDGS(03887)$ 这只股票如果中签，我留着！figr我中签了900股，赚了1万多美元，当是获利回吐了！老虎最近没有美股申购了😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509218996609824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572569667966603","authorId":"3572569667966603","name":"BENBENBEN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9310aca6850a69947792b8faef3e872","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572569667966603","idStr":"3572569667966603"},"content":"美股逻辑港股逻辑完全不同","text":"美股逻辑港股逻辑完全不同","html":"美股逻辑港股逻辑完全不同"},{"author":{"id":"3436834735371567","authorId":"3436834735371567","name":"半支烟2024","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a2d9ae133085a39d74d19550a53ce6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3436834735371567","idStr":"3436834735371567"},"content":"Mdln ipo开始申购，美股moomoo可以申购，老虎不行","text":"Mdln ipo开始申购，美股moomoo可以申购，老虎不行","html":"Mdln 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