显卡之王的个人主页 - 老虎社区

显卡之王

显卡之王

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IP属地：上海

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0勋章

2024-09-27

过几天还是砸下去，赚了的赶紧跑吧。

2024-10-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 13.5 的本，有比我更高的吗？

2025-11-18

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 财报之后直接跳空高开到 300。

2024-09-27

瞎了眼了，呵呵。国内融券无限量，过一阵砸死他。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2025-05-22

别吹了。

财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键

2024-10-25

$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ 通胀不停，黄金不停。

2025-07-29

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 后半夜上 180 稳了。

2025-01-28

华尔街做个局把国人从达子里洗出去而已，坚定持有肯定还会新高。

Wedbush不看好DeepSeek，称科技股抛售是“黄金买入机会”

2024-08-02

的确如此，英伟达下跌就是加仓的好机会，未来五万亿很容易，卖铲子不是一个好的例子，因为 AI 行业算力的重要性远大于软件。

财报在即，股价过山车大摩为何依然坚定看多英伟达？

2025-06-03

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这次必破前高。

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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都不行，别幻想了。资金只是不明觉厉而已。","listText":"AMD 都不行，别幻想了。资金只是不明觉厉而已。","text":"AMD 都不行，别幻想了。资金只是不明觉厉而已。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494005637009608","repostId":"2578640425","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2578640425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1761575199,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2578640425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-27 22:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高通推出人工智能芯片，在数据中心市场与英伟达竞争","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2578640425","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球最大手机芯片制造商$高通$正式进军AI数据中心市场，推出新型芯片和计算机系统，直接挑战$英伟达$在这一增长最快的半导体细分领域的主导地位。高通股价盘中涨20%。高通还将于2027年推出后续产品AI250。高通进军的方向正重塑着半导体行业格局——为支撑人工智能软件与服务，全球数据中心投入已高达数千亿美元。根据预测，目前统治AI计算领域的英伟达其数据中心部门今年营收将突破1800亿美元，超过包括高通在内的任何芯片公司总收入。","content":"<p>全球最大手机芯片制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>正式进军AI数据中心市场，推出新型芯片和计算机系统，直接挑战<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>等巨头的订单，将为高通开辟重要新收入来源。尽管近两年保持稳定盈利增长，但投资者更青睐其他科技股——2025年迄今高通股价涨幅仅10%，远费城半导体指数40%的飙升幅度。</p><p>根据预测，目前统治AI计算领域的英伟达其数据中心部门今年营收将突破1800亿美元，超过包括高通在内的任何芯片公司总收入。</p><p>马拉迪强调，新芯片将提供前所未有的内存容量，搭载高达768GB低功耗DRAM。内存存取速度与容量直接决定芯片处理AI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>的效能。这批新产品专注推理任务，即在大型语言模型完成训练后，支撑AI服务实际运行的计算工作。</p><p>风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高通推出人工智能芯片，在数据中心市场与英伟达竞争</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高通推出人工智能芯片，在数据中心市场与英伟达竞争\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-27 22:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202510272229209744ecb2&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球最大手机芯片制造商高通正式进军AI数据中心市场，推出新型芯片和计算机系统，直接挑战英伟达在这一增长最快的半导体细分领域的主导地位。高通股价盘中涨20%。10月27日，该公司宣布，AI200芯片将于明年开始出货，可作为独立组件、扩展卡或完整服务器机架提供。沙特阿拉伯AI初创公司Humain将成为首个客户，计划从2026年起部署基于新芯片的200兆瓦算力。高通还将于2027年推出后续产品AI250...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202510272229209744ecb2&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU1267930573.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"AA\" (SGD) ACC A","QCOM":"高通","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 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以上了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472157054206664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":470588266586120,"gmtCreate":1755920860284,"gmtModify":1755920862088,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这次财报极度的炸裂，前所未见，闻所未闻。数据高的离谱到让人无法相信。","listText":"这次财报极度的炸裂，前所未见，闻所未闻。数据高的离谱到让人无法相信。","text":"这次财报极度的炸裂，前所未见，闻所未闻。数据高的离谱到让人无法相信。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/470588266586120","repostId":"1123712564","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123712564","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1755768004,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123712564?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-21 17:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻丨英伟达二季报，或用盈利改善+需求强劲再次提振行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123712564","media":"财报Agent","summary":"财报有望提供“催化剂”，回调就是入场机会？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong><em>摘要：</em></strong><em>AI芯片巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 将于8月27日美股盘后发布2026财年第二季度财报。屡创新高之后，8月19日，英伟达出现3.5%的下跌，引发了对AI概念股的高估值担忧。市场急切希望从英伟达最新财报中看到积极因素，再次为市场注入“催化剂”。</em></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2625b51460d2a8b3cb3183713857994\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_727041255\">一季度业绩回顾</h3><p>2026财年第一季度，英伟达整体营收同比增长69%，达到441亿美元，高于市场预期的431亿美元；净利润187.75亿美元，市场预期207.67亿美元；调整后每股收益为0.96美元，市场预期0.93美元。其中，数据中心营收为391亿美元，较去年同期增长73%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa35dac97d217b9abffc497aa0b3fded\" title=\"来源：英伟达财报\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"838\"/><span>来源：英伟达财报</span></p><h3 id=\"id_667651264\">二季度展望</h3><p>英伟达预计第二财季的销售额将达到450亿美元，上下浮动2%。而据彭博社数据，分析师普遍预测英伟达第二财季将实现每股收益约1.01美元，销售额约460.91亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d75cf63c3d3cfa191d055848295046a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"60\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174d67f9c1ca15fadb3757f1e106b46b\" title=\"数据来源：彭博\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"135\"/><span>数据来源：彭博</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3638991784\">主要看点</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈利改善</strong></p></li></ul><p>一季度，英伟达调整后净利率下跌至52.77%，主要原因是Blackwell系列产能爬坡和管理研发费用增速较高。本季度由于上述因素都已改善，英伟达的盈利情况料表现积极。</p><p>由于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>产能扩张，良品率继续提高，以及GB系列的大规模出货摊低单价，英伟达的毛利率也预计比一季度回升。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7ca561521c06115190af2d64ae88b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>四巨头“撑腰”，数据中心业务继续“爆炸性”增长</strong></p></li></ul><p>目前市场普遍预期英伟达Q2数据中心营收将达420亿-430亿美元，同比增64%。来自Blackwell系列的收入贡献占比预期在90%或者更高。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>四大巨头本季度的资本开支达880亿美元，其中有约1/4会用于购买英伟达芯片，这是稳固的基本盘。同时，四大巨头纷纷上调了全年的资本开支预期，这也保证了英伟达业绩的持续性。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>产品迭代带来超预期增量</strong></p></li></ul><p>据业内消息，GB200和300系列的订单远超预期，大厂对AI投入保持热情，上下游都继续增加产能来迎接未来的增长，各家财报会议上也都在表达乐观预期。不光是PCB，CPO，甚至液冷，SOFC等相关标的也大幅上涨。鸿海董事长表示，服务器会出现300%的环比增长，显示了Blackwell需求相当乐观。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d08f31e6ff22f47b830b2af0d0ea7ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"511\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>中国市场因素</strong></p></li></ul><p>在H20解禁限售后，中国大厂的订单会被纳入本财季营收。按华尔街的估算，英伟达可获得20亿至30亿美元的增量收入。不过在美国出口限制下，许可证获批的具体时间难以确定。<strong>英伟达的下季度指引中可能会排除来自中国市场的直接收入，</strong>不过，也有值得期待的新进展：据报道，<strong>英伟达正在为中国市场研发一款基于其最新Blackwell架构的新型人工智能(AI)芯片，该芯片的性能将比目前获准销售的H20型号更加强大。</strong></p><p>关注财报会议上是否有对中国业务的特别介绍。</p><h3 id=\"id_2037172172\">大行评级</h3><p>摩根士丹利：维持对英伟达的“买入”评级，将目标价微调至206美元。认为Blackwell GPU供应改善，英伟达拥有持续强劲的客户需求。</p><p>富国银行：将英伟达目标价上调至220美元，维持“增持”评级。看好其强劲需求和恢复向中国销售H20芯片带来的增量机会。</p><p>KeyBanc：将英伟达的目标价从190美元上调至215美元，并维持“增持”评级。</p><p>Susquehanna：将英伟达目标价从180美元上调至210美元，并维持“正面”评级。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻丨英伟达二季报，或用盈利改善+需求强劲再次提振行情</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻丨英伟达二季报，或用盈利改善+需求强劲再次提振行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-21 17:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong><em>摘要：</em></strong><em>AI芯片巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 将于8月27日美股盘后发布2026财年第二季度财报。屡创新高之后，8月19日，英伟达出现3.5%的下跌，引发了对AI概念股的高估值担忧。市场急切希望从英伟达最新财报中看到积极因素，再次为市场注入“催化剂”。</em></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2625b51460d2a8b3cb3183713857994\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_727041255\">一季度业绩回顾</h3><p>2026财年第一季度，英伟达整体营收同比增长69%，达到441亿美元，高于市场预期的431亿美元；净利润187.75亿美元，市场预期207.67亿美元；调整后每股收益为0.96美元，市场预期0.93美元。其中，数据中心营收为391亿美元，较去年同期增长73%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa35dac97d217b9abffc497aa0b3fded\" title=\"来源：英伟达财报\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"838\"/><span>来源：英伟达财报</span></p><h3 id=\"id_667651264\">二季度展望</h3><p>英伟达预计第二财季的销售额将达到450亿美元，上下浮动2%。而据彭博社数据，分析师普遍预测英伟达第二财季将实现每股收益约1.01美元，销售额约460.91亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d75cf63c3d3cfa191d055848295046a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"60\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174d67f9c1ca15fadb3757f1e106b46b\" title=\"数据来源：彭博\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"135\"/><span>数据来源：彭博</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3638991784\">主要看点</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈利改善</strong></p></li></ul><p>一季度，英伟达调整后净利率下跌至52.77%，主要原因是Blackwell系列产能爬坡和管理研发费用增速较高。本季度由于上述因素都已改善，英伟达的盈利情况料表现积极。</p><p>由于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>产能扩张，良品率继续提高，以及GB系列的大规模出货摊低单价，英伟达的毛利率也预计比一季度回升。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7ca561521c06115190af2d64ae88b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>四巨头“撑腰”，数据中心业务继续“爆炸性”增长</strong></p></li></ul><p>目前市场普遍预期英伟达Q2数据中心营收将达420亿-430亿美元，同比增64%。来自Blackwell系列的收入贡献占比预期在90%或者更高。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>四大巨头本季度的资本开支达880亿美元，其中有约1/4会用于购买英伟达芯片，这是稳固的基本盘。同时，四大巨头纷纷上调了全年的资本开支预期，这也保证了英伟达业绩的持续性。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>产品迭代带来超预期增量</strong></p></li></ul><p>据业内消息，GB200和300系列的订单远超预期，大厂对AI投入保持热情，上下游都继续增加产能来迎接未来的增长，各家财报会议上也都在表达乐观预期。不光是PCB，CPO，甚至液冷，SOFC等相关标的也大幅上涨。鸿海董事长表示，服务器会出现300%的环比增长，显示了Blackwell需求相当乐观。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d08f31e6ff22f47b830b2af0d0ea7ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"511\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>中国市场因素</strong></p></li></ul><p>在H20解禁限售后，中国大厂的订单会被纳入本财季营收。按华尔街的估算，英伟达可获得20亿至30亿美元的增量收入。不过在美国出口限制下，许可证获批的具体时间难以确定。<strong>英伟达的下季度指引中可能会排除来自中国市场的直接收入，</strong>不过，也有值得期待的新进展：据报道，<strong>英伟达正在为中国市场研发一款基于其最新Blackwell架构的新型人工智能(AI)芯片，该芯片的性能将比目前获准销售的H20型号更加强大。</strong></p><p>关注财报会议上是否有对中国业务的特别介绍。</p><h3 id=\"id_2037172172\">大行评级</h3><p>摩根士丹利：维持对英伟达的“买入”评级，将目标价微调至206美元。认为Blackwell GPU供应改善，英伟达拥有持续强劲的客户需求。</p><p>富国银行：将英伟达目标价上调至220美元，维持“增持”评级。看好其强劲需求和恢复向中国销售H20芯片带来的增量机会。</p><p>KeyBanc：将英伟达的目标价从190美元上调至215美元，并维持“增持”评级。</p><p>Susquehanna：将英伟达目标价从180美元上调至210美元，并维持“正面”评级。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c73d889262c17eb71c19a0e4e5a40a","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123712564","content_text":"摘要：AI芯片巨头 英伟达 将于8月27日美股盘后发布2026财年第二季度财报。屡创新高之后，8月19日，英伟达出现3.5%的下跌，引发了对AI概念股的高估值担忧。市场急切希望从英伟达最新财报中看到积极因素，再次为市场注入“催化剂”。一季度业绩回顾2026财年第一季度，英伟达整体营收同比增长69%，达到441亿美元，高于市场预期的431亿美元；净利润187.75亿美元，市场预期207.67亿美元；调整后每股收益为0.96美元，市场预期0.93美元。其中，数据中心营收为391亿美元，较去年同期增长73%。来源：英伟达财报二季度展望英伟达预计第二财季的销售额将达到450亿美元，上下浮动2%。而据彭博社数据，分析师普遍预测英伟达第二财季将实现每股收益约1.01美元，销售额约460.91亿美元。数据来源：彭博主要看点盈利改善一季度，英伟达调整后净利率下跌至52.77%，主要原因是Blackwell系列产能爬坡和管理研发费用增速较高。本季度由于上述因素都已改善，英伟达的盈利情况料表现积极。由于台积电产能扩张，良品率继续提高，以及GB系列的大规模出货摊低单价，英伟达的毛利率也预计比一季度回升。四巨头“撑腰”，数据中心业务继续“爆炸性”增长目前市场普遍预期英伟达Q2数据中心营收将达420亿-430亿美元，同比增64%。来自Blackwell系列的收入贡献占比预期在90%或者更高。微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta四大巨头本季度的资本开支达880亿美元，其中有约1/4会用于购买英伟达芯片，这是稳固的基本盘。同时，四大巨头纷纷上调了全年的资本开支预期，这也保证了英伟达业绩的持续性。产品迭代带来超预期增量据业内消息，GB200和300系列的订单远超预期，大厂对AI投入保持热情，上下游都继续增加产能来迎接未来的增长，各家财报会议上也都在表达乐观预期。不光是PCB，CPO，甚至液冷，SOFC等相关标的也大幅上涨。鸿海董事长表示，服务器会出现300%的环比增长，显示了Blackwell需求相当乐观。中国市场因素在H20解禁限售后，中国大厂的订单会被纳入本财季营收。按华尔街的估算，英伟达可获得20亿至30亿美元的增量收入。不过在美国出口限制下，许可证获批的具体时间难以确定。英伟达的下季度指引中可能会排除来自中国市场的直接收入，不过，也有值得期待的新进展：据报道，英伟达正在为中国市场研发一款基于其最新Blackwell架构的新型人工智能(AI)芯片，该芯片的性能将比目前获准销售的H20型号更加强大。关注财报会议上是否有对中国业务的特别介绍。大行评级摩根士丹利：维持对英伟达的“买入”评级，将目标价微调至206美元。认为Blackwell 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Invest通过两只主动管理型ETF同步增持，既延续了其5月以来对英伟达的谨慎看多态度，也标志着这家以&#34;颠覆性创新&#34;投资闻名的机构，可能正在调整对AI龙头股的持仓策略。</p><p>当前持仓数据显示，尽管英伟达尚未进入ARKK前十大重仓股，但本次加仓后其权重排名较一季度末已显著提升。在AI算力需求持续爆发的产业背景下，这家全球市值第三的芯片巨头即将交出的成绩单，或将直接影响ARK Invest后续的调仓节奏。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前抢筹超3.4万股！木头姐旗下ARK ETF加仓英伟达</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1299010.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1299010.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2539280220","content_text":"5月29日，ARK Invest掌门人Cathie Wood周二进行增持操作，在英伟达公布财报前夕大举买入34,543股芯片巨头股票。具体来看，其旗舰产品ARK创新ETF(ARKK.US)增持21,504股，ARK下一代互联网ETF(ARKW.US)买入13,039股。此次操作使英伟达在ARKK的持仓排名上升至第29位，在ARKW的持仓位次提升至第24位。值得关注的是，本次加仓时机与ARKK过往操作形成鲜明对比：自2022年11月以来，该基金对英伟达的十次交易中有八次为卖出操作，仅有的两次买入分别发生在本周二及5月7日(当日买入64,838股)。类似模式也出现在ARKW的交易记录中——过去十笔交易中八次减持，仅有的两次增持分别为本周二及5月7日的19,645股买入。作为2024年人工智能行情的核心标的，英伟达本周三盘后将披露最新财报。Cathie Wood此次\"打破常规\"的加仓动作，恰逢市场聚焦芯片巨头业绩指引的关键节点。ARK 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[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31a547a00415c90203f95df6ff5baa45","width":"618","height":"1066"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439618478305552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437825410966240,"gmtCreate":1747926048664,"gmtModify":1747926049841,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别吹了。","listText":"别吹了。","text":"别吹了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437825410966240","repostId":"1199021275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199021275","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1747996740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199021275?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-23 18:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199021275","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。总结综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 \"硬件放量\" 转向 \"软硬协同\"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1941147329\">摘要</h2><p>Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f1f26d003e3e7ab0add1f58d3403a4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1526\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1771872495\">市场预测</h2><p>根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。</p><h2 id=\"id_3203938694\">上季度回顾</h2><p>2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf4c5954f1b34b80ab9e905fdbcbbc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2259532674\">本季度展望</h2><h4 id=\"id_1495851561\">数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存</h4><p>尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。</p><h4 id=\"id_4036667996\">供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导</h4><p>美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。</p><h4 id=\"id_1264992437\">定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡</h4><p>Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1990478644\">总结</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 &#34;硬件放量&#34; 转向 &#34;软硬协同&#34;。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。若 Blackwell Ultra 架构能如期在 2025 年下半年推出并实现 40 倍推理性能提升，叠加越南产线降本效应释放，或可缓解当前压力；但若替代品威胁持续扩大或地缘政策进一步收紧，其市场份额与盈利能力将面临更严峻考验。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-23 18:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1941147329\">摘要</h2><p>Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f1f26d003e3e7ab0add1f58d3403a4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1526\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1771872495\">市场预测</h2><p>根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。</p><h2 id=\"id_3203938694\">上季度回顾</h2><p>2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf4c5954f1b34b80ab9e905fdbcbbc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2259532674\">本季度展望</h2><h4 id=\"id_1495851561\">数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存</h4><p>尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。</p><h4 id=\"id_4036667996\">供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导</h4><p>美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。</p><h4 id=\"id_1264992437\">定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡</h4><p>Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1990478644\">总结</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 &#34;硬件放量&#34; 转向 &#34;软硬协同&#34;。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。若 Blackwell Ultra 架构能如期在 2025 年下半年推出并实现 40 倍推理性能提升，叠加越南产线降本效应释放，或可缓解当前压力；但若替代品威胁持续扩大或地缘政策进一步收紧，其市场份额与盈利能力将面临更严峻考验。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d00325b3cb3f8302fe4544d2a072ea9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199021275","content_text":"摘要Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。市场预测根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。上季度回顾2024 年四季度收入为 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够不到300"},{"author":{"id":"4116079906716510","authorId":"4116079906716510","name":"杰克村长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460d4cfacfcca0b959ee145bfb410e69","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4116079906716510","idStr":"4116079906716510"},"content":"你丫梦做多了怕是","text":"你丫梦做多了怕是","html":"你丫梦做多了怕是"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353937995751656,"gmtCreate":1727418693313,"gmtModify":1727419167234,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"瞎了眼了，呵呵。国内融券无限量，过一阵砸死他。","listText":"瞎了眼了，呵呵。国内融券无限量，过一阵砸死他。","text":"瞎了眼了，呵呵。国内融券无限量，过一阵砸死他。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353937995751656","repostId":"2470073741","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547499860800538","authorId":"3547499860800538","name":"唤唤霸霸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4842950dc96000bc44fa266137eef860","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547499860800538","idStr":"3547499860800538"},"content":"国内你这种张口就来也无限量，确实可怕","text":"国内你这种张口就来也无限量，确实可怕","html":"国内你这种张口就来也无限量，确实可怕"},{"author":{"id":"3545228092363147","authorId":"3545228092363147","name":"华尔街之吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0c61175b3eb317ebf8b952a45bf3c7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3545228092363147","idStr":"3545228092363147"},"content":"人家买港股 缅a有百度 阿里？","text":"人家买港股 缅a有百度 阿里？","html":"人家买港股 缅a有百度 阿里？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437825410966240,"gmtCreate":1747926048664,"gmtModify":1747926049841,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别吹了。","listText":"别吹了。","text":"别吹了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437825410966240","repostId":"1199021275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199021275","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1747996740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199021275?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-23 18:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199021275","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。总结综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 \"硬件放量\" 转向 \"软硬协同\"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1941147329\">摘要</h2><p>Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f1f26d003e3e7ab0add1f58d3403a4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1526\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1771872495\">市场预测</h2><p>根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。</p><h2 id=\"id_3203938694\">上季度回顾</h2><p>2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf4c5954f1b34b80ab9e905fdbcbbc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2259532674\">本季度展望</h2><h4 id=\"id_1495851561\">数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存</h4><p>尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。</p><h4 id=\"id_4036667996\">供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导</h4><p>美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。</p><h4 id=\"id_1264992437\">定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡</h4><p>Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1990478644\">总结</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 &#34;硬件放量&#34; 转向 &#34;软硬协同&#34;。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。若 Blackwell Ultra 架构能如期在 2025 年下半年推出并实现 40 倍推理性能提升，叠加越南产线降本效应释放，或可缓解当前压力；但若替代品威胁持续扩大或地缘政策进一步收紧，其市场份额与盈利能力将面临更严峻考验。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 英伟达良率波动毛利承压，AI算力＋软硬协同或成破局关键\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-23 18:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1941147329\">摘要</h2><p>Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f1f26d003e3e7ab0add1f58d3403a4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1526\" tg-height=\"218\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1771872495\">市场预测</h2><p>根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。</p><h2 id=\"id_3203938694\">上季度回顾</h2><p>2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf4c5954f1b34b80ab9e905fdbcbbc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2259532674\">本季度展望</h2><h4 id=\"id_1495851561\">数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存</h4><p>尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。</p><h4 id=\"id_4036667996\">供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导</h4><p>美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。</p><h4 id=\"id_1264992437\">定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡</h4><p>Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。</p><h2 id=\"id_1990478644\">总结</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 &#34;硬件放量&#34; 转向 &#34;软硬协同&#34;。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 生态护城河与应对竞争对手技术追赶之间寻找平衡。若 Blackwell Ultra 架构能如期在 2025 年下半年推出并实现 40 倍推理性能提升，叠加越南产线降本效应释放，或可缓解当前压力；但若替代品威胁持续扩大或地缘政策进一步收紧，其市场份额与盈利能力将面临更严峻考验。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d00325b3cb3f8302fe4544d2a072ea9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199021275","content_text":"摘要Nvidia 将于 2025 年 5 月 28 日收盘后公布其 2026 财年第一季度业绩。根据彭博社的一致预期，英伟达Q1营收预计为432.74亿美元，同比增长 66%，调整后净利润为222.6亿美元，调整后EPS为0.886美元。主要依赖 Blackwell 架构 GPU 量产及 H200 交付量提升，头部云厂商订单占比 55%。受台积电封装良率影响，毛利率预计降至 69.65%（上季度 73%），研发投入增至 40.7 亿美元（同比 + 49%），重点投向 Blackwell Ultra 架构。FY25Q4 营收 393 亿美元（同比 + 78%），数据中心业务占 86%，但 HBM 出口限制导致 15% 订单延迟。越南测试产线 Q2 末投产后，预计降低封装成本 10%-15%。市场预测根据英伟达投资者网站披露，公司预计FY26Q1营收为430亿美元（±2%），同比增幅达66%。该预测基于Blackwell架构GPU的量产进度及H200交付量的爬坡，其中微软、谷歌等头部云厂商的订单占比达55%。毛利率预计降至69.65%（上季度73%），主因马来西亚封装测试环节关税成本上升及台积电CoWoS-L封装工艺的良率爬坡压力。研发同比增长49%至40.7亿美元，主要用于Blackwell Ultra架构的研发投入（占研发预算60%）。上季度回顾2024 年四季度收入为 393 亿美元，同比增长 78%，环比增长 12%，超越彭博一致预期（382 亿美元）；GAAP 毛利率为 73%，符合彭博一致预期；净利润为 221 亿美元，超越彭博一致预期（198 亿美元），GAAP 净利润率为 56.2%；GAAP每股收益为 0.89 美元，同比增长 82%，环比增长 14%。管理层在电话会议中透露，越南测试产线将于Q2末投产，预计降低封装环节10%-15%成本。本季度展望数据中心业务：结构性增长与客户集中度风险并存尽管全球云计算资本开支增速放缓至18%（IDC），但AI算力投资占比提升至35%，驱动英伟达GPU需求升高。本季度微软、谷歌H200采购量环比增长40%，但中小云服务商因融资成本上升削减订单，前五大客户集中度攀升至58%（同比+15pct）。高盛指出，TOP10云厂商2025年AI资本开支达1420亿美元，其中65%流向GPU采购，但头部化趋势可能导致英伟达议价权边际弱化。此外，AMD MI300X推理性能较H100提升30%，或分流20%推理市场份额。供应链韧性测试：产能转移与关税成本传导美国对全球尤其是亚洲半导体关税大幅升高，将直接影响马来西亚封装环节成本结构。目前英伟达采取三阶段应对：1）将H20芯片流片转移至台积电台湾厂区，规避原产地规则；2）与日月光合作开发Chiplet封装，晶圆损耗率从8%降至4.5%；3）越南测试产线首批设备已调试完成，预计Q2末量产。然而，过渡期H100交付周期延长至12周，部分客户转向AMD MI300X或谷歌TPU v5（供应链调研显示替代率约7%）。定价权博弈：技术溢价与商业条款再平衡Blackwell架构GPU量产推动产品均价提升15%，但客户采购策略趋严。亚马逊AWS最新合同显示，30%采购量附加“性能对赌条款”——若实际算力效率低于宣传值10%，英伟达需返还货款的5%-8%。摩根士丹利测算，此类条款或压制毛利率上行空间1.2pct，但CUDA生态黏性仍支撑70%以上毛利率。此外，NVIDIA AI Enterprise软件订阅服务贡献营收占比升至8%，有望缓解硬件毛利率压力。总结综合来看，英伟达在 AI 算力长周期中仍占据技术领先地位，但其增长逻辑正从 \"硬件放量\" 转向 \"软硬协同\"。短期需应对供应链过渡期的产能波动和地缘政策冲击，长期则需在维持 CUDA 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通胀不停，黄金不停。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363856510906640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":461963121397768,"gmtCreate":1753802143518,"gmtModify":1753802144613,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 后半夜上 180 稳了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 后半夜上 180 稳了。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 后半夜上 180 稳了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461963121397768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397329719312984,"gmtCreate":1738026911538,"gmtModify":1738027154978,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华尔街做个局把国人从达子里洗出去而已，坚定持有肯定还会新高。","listText":"华尔街做个局把国人从达子里洗出去而已，坚定持有肯定还会新高。","text":"华尔街做个局把国人从达子里洗出去而已，坚定持有肯定还会新高。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397329719312984","repostId":"1191348013","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191348013","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737987789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191348013?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-27 22:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wedbush不看好DeepSeek，称科技股抛售是“黄金买入机会”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191348013","media":"智通财经网","summary":"AI重点是企业用例和更广泛的基础设施。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wedbush表示，周一，DeepSeek的R1大型语言模型及市场对美国公司竞争模型成本的担忧引发的科技股抛售，可能为投资者提供“黄金买入机会”。Wedbush分析师在报告中评论称，“显然，科技股正面临由英伟达领跌的巨大压力，(华尔街)将把DeepSeek视为对美国科技主导地位和把控这场人工智能革命的重大威胁。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush分析师说：“虽然DeepSeek模型令人印象深刻并对市场产生连锁反应，但在我们看来，现实情况是，美股七巨头和美国科技公司正专注的(通用人工智能)最后阶段以及所有基础设施和生态系统都是DeepSeek无法接近的。目前，人工智能的重点是企业用例和更广泛的基础设施，这将在未来3年推动这2万亿美元的资本支出。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">DeepSeek在12月底发布了免费的开源大型语言模型R1，称在两个月内开发而成，耗资557万美元。DeepSeek表示，它使用了英伟达的H800 GPU大约2788小时。目前，DeepSeek的人工智能助手现已取代ChatGPT成为App Store上排名第一的免费应用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，也有部分人士表示质疑，称研究表明上述成本仅包括DeepSeek-V3的“官方培训”，不包括与架构、算法和数据的先前研究和消融实验相关的成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush Securities表示，DeepSeek是否能找到一种方法绕过美国对英伟达和其他GPU制造商的出口管制“还有待观察”。该机构补充说，DeepSeek模型的推出令人印象深刻，但最终，它并不被视为满足继续建立更广泛人工智能基础设施所需的“竞争威胁”。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wedbush不看好DeepSeek，称科技股抛售是“黄金买入机会”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush不看好DeepSeek，称科技股抛售是“黄金买入机会”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-27 22:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1244794.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wedbush表示，周一，DeepSeek的R1大型语言模型及市场对美国公司竞争模型成本的担忧引发的科技股抛售，可能为投资者提供“黄金买入机会”。Wedbush分析师在报告中评论称，“显然，科技股正面临由英伟达领跌的巨大压力，(华尔街)将把DeepSeek视为对美国科技主导地位和把控这场人工智能革命的重大威胁。”Wedbush分析师说：“虽然DeepSeek模型令人印象深刻并对市场产生连锁反应，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1244794.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9b3296a59921ce97bdfc79eee468fd55","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1244794.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1191348013","content_text":"Wedbush表示，周一，DeepSeek的R1大型语言模型及市场对美国公司竞争模型成本的担忧引发的科技股抛售，可能为投资者提供“黄金买入机会”。Wedbush分析师在报告中评论称，“显然，科技股正面临由英伟达领跌的巨大压力，(华尔街)将把DeepSeek视为对美国科技主导地位和把控这场人工智能革命的重大威胁。”Wedbush分析师说：“虽然DeepSeek模型令人印象深刻并对市场产生连锁反应，但在我们看来，现实情况是，美股七巨头和美国科技公司正专注的(通用人工智能)最后阶段以及所有基础设施和生态系统都是DeepSeek无法接近的。目前，人工智能的重点是企业用例和更广泛的基础设施，这将在未来3年推动这2万亿美元的资本支出。”DeepSeek在12月底发布了免费的开源大型语言模型R1，称在两个月内开发而成，耗资557万美元。DeepSeek表示，它使用了英伟达的H800 GPU大约2788小时。目前，DeepSeek的人工智能助手现已取代ChatGPT成为App Store上排名第一的免费应用。与此同时，也有部分人士表示质疑，称研究表明上述成本仅包括DeepSeek-V3的“官方培训”，不包括与架构、算法和数据的先前研究和消融实验相关的成本。Wedbush Securities表示，DeepSeek是否能找到一种方法绕过美国对英伟达和其他GPU制造商的出口管制“还有待观察”。该机构补充说，DeepSeek模型的推出令人印象深刻，但最终，它并不被视为满足继续建立更广泛人工智能基础设施所需的“竞争威胁”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.1,"MSFT":1.1,"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334101097295880,"gmtCreate":1722600590451,"gmtModify":1722600592745,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"的确如此，英伟达下跌就是加仓的好机会，未来五万亿很容易，卖铲子不是一个好的例子，因为 AI 行业算力的重要性远大于软件。","listText":"的确如此，英伟达下跌就是加仓的好机会，未来五万亿很容易，卖铲子不是一个好的例子，因为 AI 行业算力的重要性远大于软件。","text":"的确如此，英伟达下跌就是加仓的好机会，未来五万亿很容易，卖铲子不是一个好的例子，因为 AI 行业算力的重要性远大于软件。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334101097295880","repostId":"2456475757","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456475757","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1722586638,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2456475757?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-02 16:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报在即，股价过山车  大摩为何依然坚定看多英伟达？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456475757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，由于英伟达目前芯片产品销售强劲，而且未来新产品的前景明朗，当目前被夸大的行业竞争等风险随时间消退后，英伟达股价表现将继续走强，近期股价回调提供了一个很好的入场点。","content":"<html><body><p>在这轮美股科技股的抛售潮中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>作为GPU领头羊也回调了不少，本周的股价更像是坐了过山车，周二大跌7%，然后周三大涨近13%，周四又跌了6%...股价自7月高点以来已累计跌超19%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7ef5cbc1-f3ef-4478-af8e-406a7f892109.png\" title=\"\"/></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>无视英伟达近期下跌的股价，在7月31日在发布研报看好英伟达，并指出，<strong>由于英伟达目前芯片产品销售强劲，而且未来新产品的前景明朗，以及市场过度夸大行业竞争等负面影响会随着时间消退，英伟达此次股价回调将提供了一个很好的入场点。依旧强烈看好英伟达未来的股价表现</strong>，并维持了“增持”评级。受此消息影响，英伟达股价在周三收盘时还大涨近13%。</p>\n<p>那么大摩为什么继续看好英伟达？</p>\n<p>因为大摩认为，<strong>目前市场对英伟达的担忧主要集中在AI行业资本支出过大、行业竞争激烈等几个方面，而这些负面影响是会随着时间推移而减弱的，毕竟英伟达的GPU产品优势还在</strong>。</p>\n<h2>大摩看好英伟达的原因：</h2>\n<p>1、未来对英伟达GPU产品的<strong>需求将从Hopper逐步转移到Blackwell</strong>，而在过渡期间，Hopper架构的<strong>H100及H200 GPU产品的销量依旧强劲，能够支持英伟达的营收。</strong></p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>很明显，Hopper架构GPU产品正处于周期的尾声，随着技术进步和产品更新换代，市场需求将从基于Hopper架构的产品转移到下一代的Blackwell架构产品。</p>\n<p>随着产品需求的转移，供应链的限制也会改变：可能会从GPU产能不足，变成硅材料的供应不足（即原材料供应可能成为新的瓶颈）。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>2、大型科技公司对Blackwell架构的GPU新品的热情持续高涨，让英伟达未来的营收前景更明朗。</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>英伟达的Blackwell新品比前代产品的推理性能的大幅提升，增加对客户的吸引力。</p>\n<p>尽管Blackwell和组合机架的复杂性，可能会给供应量带来挑战，但目前英伟达的产能提升进度似乎进展顺利。</p>\n<p>我们预计到10月份，首批Blackwell产品的出货量可将较为可观，但到2025年初，Hopper 架构的GPU产品仍将是英伟达的主要营收来源。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h2>大摩：近期英伟达股价下跌可能与以下几大风险有关，但不用过于忧虑！</h2>\n<p>大摩非常看好英伟达，并指出英伟达近期股价下跌可能与下面几大风险有关，但这些风险的负面影响都会随着时间推移而减弱。</p>\n<p><strong> 第一大风险：科技巨头大幅增加AI资本支出，但无法从AI投资收回相应比例的投资回报</strong></p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>我们看到各地的人工智能资本支出都在持续上升，但华尔街最近并不满意这些科技巨头大幅增加AI的季度资本支出，并引发了投资者近期对美股科技股的抛售。</p>\n<p><strong>但要理解大型科技公司在增加AI投资过程中，正面临各种关于土地和电网功率限制，因此资本支出是非线性的</strong>。</p>\n<p>我们的调查普遍显示，科技公司希望尽快部署GPU，即使在新产品Blackwell即将推出的情况下，英伟达H100产品的需求依然稳定，此前担心科技公司会减少对H100产品的需求可能多虑了。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><strong>第二大风险：竞争生态</strong></p>\n<p>大摩指出，人工智能是一个庞大的市场，仅英伟达一家的GPU产品是无法满足整个市场的需求，因此<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>想打造自己的芯片，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>也考虑使用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的TPU来完成训练大模型的关键工作，以及AMD也在瓜分GPU市场，这些竞争都对英伟达的股票造成了压力。</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>幸运的是，我们听说有许多投资了定制芯片或替代品的科技公司又回到了英伟达的怀抱，在人工智能的竞赛中，英伟达仍处于中心位置，我们认为这种情况暂时不会改变。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><strong>第三大风险：供应链问题</strong></p>\n<p>尽管英伟达目前面临一些供应链方面的担忧，例如HBM3e的产能，以及GB200机架产品的散热等问题的确存在，但英伟达正在积极解决问题，而且Blackwell产品在下半年也有加速量产的的积极信号。</p>\n<p>同时，大摩指出另一个需警惕的点：<strong>部分英伟达在台湾的代工合作伙伴（ODM）可能对GB200产品的未来需求预测过于乐观</strong>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>部分ODM预计，明年对GB200产品机架的需求可能高达5~9万个，这可能有点乐观了。</p>\n<p>按照每个GB200机架平均集成了54 个GPU，假设市场需求7万个机架，每个机架售价约4万美元（GPU 3.5 万美元、CPU 和交换机约5000 美元）来计算，这将需要1500亿美元。</p>\n<p>所以我们预计，明年英伟达的数据中心业务营收不大可能达到3000亿美元如此乐观的水平，而是更接近1640亿美元。如果剔除了Mellanox以及游戏业务带来的营收，处理器带来的营收约是1450亿美元。</p>\n<p>在此期间，最大的风险仍是营收数据的浮动。不过短期内，这些数据仍会支撑英伟达的股价。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p><strong>第四大风险：宏观经济环境的担忧和市场估值压缩</strong></p>\n<p>大摩指出，经济大环境可能是最难以忽视的因素：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>因为云计算、GPU的高资本支出依赖于强劲的风险偏好环境，如果全球经济疲软肯定会影响支出。届时投资人对公司的估值可能变得更加严格，并影响投资者对风险资产的投资意愿。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>最后，大摩指出，未来有很多催化剂能提振英伟达股价，例如：盈利预测或业绩预期的上调、Blackwell产品交货时间变得更加确定、英伟达对市场出现的竞争担忧的有力回应，以及在半导体行业中，AI这个主题使英伟达的业务更加引人注目等。</p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>\n<div>\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          </div>\n</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报在即，股价过山车  大摩为何依然坚定看多英伟达？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报在即，股价过山车  大摩为何依然坚定看多英伟达？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-02 16:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3722174><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在这轮美股科技股的抛售潮中，英伟达作为GPU领头羊也回调了不少，本周的股价更像是坐了过山车，周二大跌7%，然后周三大涨近13%，周四又跌了6%...股价自7月高点以来已累计跌超19%。\n\n摩根士丹利无视英伟达近期下跌的股价，在7月31日在发布研报看好英伟达，并指出，由于英伟达目前芯片产品销售强劲，而且未来新产品的前景明朗，以及市场过度夸大行业竞争等负面影响会随着时间消退，英伟达此次股价回调将提供了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3722174\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/01438d0b-fc06-47ba-ada6-c0520f3165c3.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3722174","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2456475757","content_text":"在这轮美股科技股的抛售潮中，英伟达作为GPU领头羊也回调了不少，本周的股价更像是坐了过山车，周二大跌7%，然后周三大涨近13%，周四又跌了6%...股价自7月高点以来已累计跌超19%。\n\n摩根士丹利无视英伟达近期下跌的股价，在7月31日在发布研报看好英伟达，并指出，由于英伟达目前芯片产品销售强劲，而且未来新产品的前景明朗，以及市场过度夸大行业竞争等负面影响会随着时间消退，英伟达此次股价回调将提供了一个很好的入场点。依旧强烈看好英伟达未来的股价表现，并维持了“增持”评级。受此消息影响，英伟达股价在周三收盘时还大涨近13%。\n那么大摩为什么继续看好英伟达？\n因为大摩认为，目前市场对英伟达的担忧主要集中在AI行业资本支出过大、行业竞争激烈等几个方面，而这些负面影响是会随着时间推移而减弱的，毕竟英伟达的GPU产品优势还在。\n大摩看好英伟达的原因：\n1、未来对英伟达GPU产品的需求将从Hopper逐步转移到Blackwell，而在过渡期间，Hopper架构的H100及H200 GPU产品的销量依旧强劲，能够支持英伟达的营收。\n\n很明显，Hopper架构GPU产品正处于周期的尾声，随着技术进步和产品更新换代，市场需求将从基于Hopper架构的产品转移到下一代的Blackwell架构产品。\n随着产品需求的转移，供应链的限制也会改变：可能会从GPU产能不足，变成硅材料的供应不足（即原材料供应可能成为新的瓶颈）。\n\n2、大型科技公司对Blackwell架构的GPU新品的热情持续高涨，让英伟达未来的营收前景更明朗。\n\n英伟达的Blackwell新品比前代产品的推理性能的大幅提升，增加对客户的吸引力。\n尽管Blackwell和组合机架的复杂性，可能会给供应量带来挑战，但目前英伟达的产能提升进度似乎进展顺利。\n我们预计到10月份，首批Blackwell产品的出货量可将较为可观，但到2025年初，Hopper 架构的GPU产品仍将是英伟达的主要营收来源。\n\n大摩：近期英伟达股价下跌可能与以下几大风险有关，但不用过于忧虑！\n大摩非常看好英伟达，并指出英伟达近期股价下跌可能与下面几大风险有关，但这些风险的负面影响都会随着时间推移而减弱。\n 第一大风险：科技巨头大幅增加AI资本支出，但无法从AI投资收回相应比例的投资回报\n\n我们看到各地的人工智能资本支出都在持续上升，但华尔街最近并不满意这些科技巨头大幅增加AI的季度资本支出，并引发了投资者近期对美股科技股的抛售。\n但要理解大型科技公司在增加AI投资过程中，正面临各种关于土地和电网功率限制，因此资本支出是非线性的。\n我们的调查普遍显示，科技公司希望尽快部署GPU，即使在新产品Blackwell即将推出的情况下，英伟达H100产品的需求依然稳定，此前担心科技公司会减少对H100产品的需求可能多虑了。\n\n第二大风险：竞争生态\n大摩指出，人工智能是一个庞大的市场，仅英伟达一家的GPU产品是无法满足整个市场的需求，因此亚马逊想打造自己的芯片，而苹果也考虑使用谷歌的TPU来完成训练大模型的关键工作，以及AMD也在瓜分GPU市场，这些竞争都对英伟达的股票造成了压力。\n\n幸运的是，我们听说有许多投资了定制芯片或替代品的科技公司又回到了英伟达的怀抱，在人工智能的竞赛中，英伟达仍处于中心位置，我们认为这种情况暂时不会改变。\n\n第三大风险：供应链问题\n尽管英伟达目前面临一些供应链方面的担忧，例如HBM3e的产能，以及GB200机架产品的散热等问题的确存在，但英伟达正在积极解决问题，而且Blackwell产品在下半年也有加速量产的的积极信号。\n同时，大摩指出另一个需警惕的点：部分英伟达在台湾的代工合作伙伴（ODM）可能对GB200产品的未来需求预测过于乐观。\n\n部分ODM预计，明年对GB200产品机架的需求可能高达5~9万个，这可能有点乐观了。\n按照每个GB200机架平均集成了54 个GPU，假设市场需求7万个机架，每个机架售价约4万美元（GPU 3.5 万美元、CPU 和交换机约5000 美元）来计算，这将需要1500亿美元。\n所以我们预计，明年英伟达的数据中心业务营收不大可能达到3000亿美元如此乐观的水平，而是更接近1640亿美元。如果剔除了Mellanox以及游戏业务带来的营收，处理器带来的营收约是1450亿美元。\n在此期间，最大的风险仍是营收数据的浮动。不过短期内，这些数据仍会支撑英伟达的股价。\n\n第四大风险：宏观经济环境的担忧和市场估值压缩\n大摩指出，经济大环境可能是最难以忽视的因素：\n\n因为云计算、GPU的高资本支出依赖于强劲的风险偏好环境，如果全球经济疲软肯定会影响支出。届时投资人对公司的估值可能变得更加严格，并影响投资者对风险资产的投资意愿。\n\n最后，大摩指出，未来有很多催化剂能提振英伟达股价，例如：盈利预测或业绩预期的上调、Blackwell产品交货时间变得更加确定、英伟达对市场出现的竞争担忧的有力回应，以及在半导体行业中，AI这个主题使英伟达的业务更加引人注目等。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442111045230808,"gmtCreate":1748960118832,"gmtModify":1748960119950,"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4173149581503700","idStr":"4173149581503700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 这次必破前高。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 这次必破前高。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这次必破前高。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442111045230808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}