5702046G的个人主页 - 老虎社区

5702046G

5702046G

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IP属地：广东

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06-03

$诺基亚(NOK)$ 目标价120，明年到达

05-27

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 它在磨期权，

04-21

被套了是吧？

摩根大通：逢高做空美元，结汇避险需求共振，人民币中期看涨

2025-12-10

哦

国台办回应赖清德当局出卖台积电：媚美卖台还文过饰非无耻至极

2025-10-21

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 流通股越来越少，懂得都懂

2025-10-10

$APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ 下一个Crwv？

2025-09-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 格局

2025-09-19

$GRANITESHARES 2X LONG AMD DAILY ETF(AMDL)$ 5块我接盘！

2025-09-13

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 充份换手把散户挂在29块，然后开始回调哈哈哈

2025-09-08

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 三倍60块基本没问题

2025-09-03

$Gryphon Digital Mining(ABTC)$ 10.22接了盘 **了

2025-08-26

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 年底就会爆发

2025-08-19

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 空头没吃饭？砸到80

2025-08-19

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 基本面是没什么变化的，

2025-08-17

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 75块接两倍

2025-08-11

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 本月200

2025-08-07

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 年底300

2025-08-02

$联合健康(UNH)$ 150全仓接盘

2025-07-22

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 等爆发，赚点零花钱

2025-07-17

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 本周30块

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$诺基亚(NOK)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 目标价120，明年到达","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$诺基亚(NOK)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 目标价120，明年到达","text":"$诺基亚(NOK)$ 目标价120，明年到达","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571040352424672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":568510862778736,"gmtCreate":1779817800390,"gmtModify":1779817922530,"author":{"id":"4170648728014932","authorId":"4170648728014932","name":"5702046G","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc24361b1d29e4b2aefeac87c6240b1f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4170648728014932","idStr":"4170648728014932"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 它在磨期权，","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 它在磨期权，","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ 它在磨期权，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/568510862778736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498733509538745","authorId":"3498733509538745","name":"马鞍山哆啦A梦","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3498733509538745","idStr":"3498733509538745"},"content":"call和put都磨得差不多了吧？","text":"call和put都磨得差不多了吧？","html":"call和put都磨得差不多了吧？"},{"author":{"id":"3548413174045027","authorId":"3548413174045027","name":"amiaogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25942a8dd319ab06b48dc41434f55b54","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3548413174045027","idStr":"3548413174045027"},"content":"财报前没有跑，现在亏没了","text":"财报前没有跑，现在亏没了","html":"财报前没有跑，现在亏没了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555891842576736,"gmtCreate":1776749027048,"gmtModify":1776749029451,"author":{"id":"4170648728014932","authorId":"4170648728014932","name":"5702046G","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc24361b1d29e4b2aefeac87c6240b1f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4170648728014932","idStr":"4170648728014932"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"被套了是吧？","listText":"被套了是吧？","text":"被套了是吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555891842576736","repostId":"2628872850","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2628872850","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776688708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2628872850?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 20:38","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通：逢高做空美元，结汇避险需求共振，人民币中期看涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628872850","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通认为，中资企业持续抛售美元叠加人民币避险属性提升，共同支撑其中期走强。企业结汇动能强劲，且不仅限于当期美元收入——过去数年积累的庞大存量美元储蓄正被加速消耗，为人民币升值提供持续动力；中东冲突期间人民币始终稳守7.0关口下方，叠加石油美元体系分化及能源贸易中人民币结算占比上升，避险吸引力显著增强。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>人民币汇率延续偏强走势。尽管近两个交易日有所回调，但幅度有限，整体仍处高位。4月20日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率报6.8198；4月14日一度触及6.8156，创下2023年3月以来新高。</p><p></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>认为，<strong>企业结汇需求构成人民币中期走强的重要支撑。</strong>中国企业的美元抛盘更具持续性，春节季节性因素消退后动能依然强劲。3月总外汇结算比率与净外汇结算比率均创2020年以来同期最高水平。更重要的是，出口商不仅将当期增量美元收入结汇，还在主动消耗过去数年积累的存量美元储蓄。</p><p>与此同时，<strong>人民币的避险属性也在提升。</strong>中东冲突期间，美元兑离岸人民币始终维持在7.0关口下方，人民币的相对稳定性，叠加“石油美元体系分化”叙事及能源贸易中人民币计价占比的上升，共同强化了其避险吸引力。</p><p>基于中期看涨逻辑的强化，摩根大通上调了对人民币的预期，<strong>相应下调美元兑人民币汇率预测，预计未来几个季度将测试6.70水平</strong>。值得注意的是，近期逆周期因子再度活跃，显示央行调节意愿有所回归，但摩根大通认为央行更可能的政策取向是通过节奏管控引导人民币有序升值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da72f834677e738063833109d76bfd33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"452\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1430615539\">企业持续抛售美元，结汇潜力支撑人民币中期走强</h2><p>支撑人民币中期走强的结构性力量正在积聚，<strong>中国企业持续抛售美元是核心驱动之一。</strong></p><p>外汇管理局数据显示，3月企业结汇动能强劲，且超出春节季节性因素的解释范围。当月外汇结售汇总比率达71.0%，净结汇比率为7.7个百分点，均为2020年以来同期最高水平，表明在地缘政治与汇率波动加剧背景下，企业倾向于将美元收入兑换为人民币，结汇意愿保持强劲。</p><p>更值得关注的是，<strong>企业美元净卖出规模已超过将新增美元收入结汇的理论上限。</strong>3月与货物贸易相关的美元净卖出达600亿美元，与2月持平，而同期贸易顺差有所收窄。按外汇管理局口径，当月出口商新增贸易美元收入约500亿美元，其中约30%可能以人民币计价结算，剩余约350亿美元理论上需结汇。实际结汇量远超这一估算，意味着<strong>出口商不仅在结汇新增美元收入，还在主动消耗过去数年积累的存量美元储蓄。</strong></p><p>摩根大通估算，2022年至2025年间，中国企业可能累积了6000亿至9000亿美元的海外美元存款。这一庞大的存量资金构成持续的结汇潜力，足以在较长时间内为人民币升值提供有力支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecfc4ab32c34c0026969a00e5aa1daa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"548\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2347075473\">避险属性崛起，大宗商品人民币结算比例快速攀升</h2><p>除企业结汇外，<strong>人民币作为全球交易货币的地位提升，正为其中期走强提供支撑路径。</strong></p><p>在中东冲突期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDCNH.FOREX\">美元/离岸人民币</a>始终稳守7关口下方，人民币的相对稳定性显著强化了其“避险货币”叙事。与此同时，围绕“石油美元体系分化”及人民币在能源贸易中计价结算比例上升的讨论持续升温。</p><p>数据印证了这一趋势。大宗商品相关人民币结算金额占人民币计价货物贸易总额的比例，已从2020年的约5%升至2023年的约20%。从更长周期看，人民币在货物贸易跨境结算中的占比目前已接近30%，较2018年的12%大幅提升。前中国人民银行行长周小川近期亦表示，随着市场对美元信心的削弱以及中国贸易顺差的持续扩大，人民币国际化正进入“黄金时期”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f08b37dfdf93802d518e08d020069c2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ddd150a76118e4e126a1ac62e398245\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_517802880\">看涨人民币至6.70，央行或侧重节奏管控</h2><p>基于上述中期看多逻辑，摩根大通进一步看涨人民币，相应下调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDCNY.FOREX\">美元/人民币</a>汇率预测。</p><p>具体而言，该行将2026年第二季度至第四季度及2027年第一季度的美元/人民币目标价，由此前各季度均为6.85，依次调至6.80、6.75、6.70及6.70。报告指出，<strong>6.70的目标更多反映对人民币升值方向与幅度的判断</strong>，而非对具体路径的精确预判，实际升值过程可能比预测曲线更为曲折。</p><p>从央行行为看，中国人民银行近期再度出现逆周期调控迹象，反向调节因子重新激活。但摩根大通认为，央行不会“划定硬性底线”，更可能的政策取向是通过节奏管控引导人民币有序升值，而非阻断升值趋势。</p><p>在交易层面，由于现货汇率与中间价之间仍存在较大偏离，摩根大通当前对美元/人民币维持中性立场。不过，该行更倾向于利用汇率反弹机会重新建立美元空头头寸，而非在当前水平追涨美元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通：逢高做空美元，结汇避险需求共振，人民币中期看涨</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通：逢高做空美元，结汇避险需求共振，人民币中期看涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-20 20:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>人民币汇率延续偏强走势。尽管近两个交易日有所回调，但幅度有限，整体仍处高位。4月20日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率报6.8198；4月14日一度触及6.8156，创下2023年3月以来新高。</p><p></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>认为，<strong>企业结汇需求构成人民币中期走强的重要支撑。</strong>中国企业的美元抛盘更具持续性，春节季节性因素消退后动能依然强劲。3月总外汇结算比率与净外汇结算比率均创2020年以来同期最高水平。更重要的是，出口商不仅将当期增量美元收入结汇，还在主动消耗过去数年积累的存量美元储蓄。</p><p>与此同时，<strong>人民币的避险属性也在提升。</strong>中东冲突期间，美元兑离岸人民币始终维持在7.0关口下方，人民币的相对稳定性，叠加“石油美元体系分化”叙事及能源贸易中人民币计价占比的上升，共同强化了其避险吸引力。</p><p>基于中期看涨逻辑的强化，摩根大通上调了对人民币的预期，<strong>相应下调美元兑人民币汇率预测，预计未来几个季度将测试6.70水平</strong>。值得注意的是，近期逆周期因子再度活跃，显示央行调节意愿有所回归，但摩根大通认为央行更可能的政策取向是通过节奏管控引导人民币有序升值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da72f834677e738063833109d76bfd33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"452\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1430615539\">企业持续抛售美元，结汇潜力支撑人民币中期走强</h2><p>支撑人民币中期走强的结构性力量正在积聚，<strong>中国企业持续抛售美元是核心驱动之一。</strong></p><p>外汇管理局数据显示，3月企业结汇动能强劲，且超出春节季节性因素的解释范围。当月外汇结售汇总比率达71.0%，净结汇比率为7.7个百分点，均为2020年以来同期最高水平，表明在地缘政治与汇率波动加剧背景下，企业倾向于将美元收入兑换为人民币，结汇意愿保持强劲。</p><p>更值得关注的是，<strong>企业美元净卖出规模已超过将新增美元收入结汇的理论上限。</strong>3月与货物贸易相关的美元净卖出达600亿美元，与2月持平，而同期贸易顺差有所收窄。按外汇管理局口径，当月出口商新增贸易美元收入约500亿美元，其中约30%可能以人民币计价结算，剩余约350亿美元理论上需结汇。实际结汇量远超这一估算，意味着<strong>出口商不仅在结汇新增美元收入，还在主动消耗过去数年积累的存量美元储蓄。</strong></p><p>摩根大通估算，2022年至2025年间，中国企业可能累积了6000亿至9000亿美元的海外美元存款。这一庞大的存量资金构成持续的结汇潜力，足以在较长时间内为人民币升值提供有力支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecfc4ab32c34c0026969a00e5aa1daa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"548\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2347075473\">避险属性崛起，大宗商品人民币结算比例快速攀升</h2><p>除企业结汇外，<strong>人民币作为全球交易货币的地位提升，正为其中期走强提供支撑路径。</strong></p><p>在中东冲突期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDCNH.FOREX\">美元/离岸人民币</a>始终稳守7关口下方，人民币的相对稳定性显著强化了其“避险货币”叙事。与此同时，围绕“石油美元体系分化”及人民币在能源贸易中计价结算比例上升的讨论持续升温。</p><p>数据印证了这一趋势。大宗商品相关人民币结算金额占人民币计价货物贸易总额的比例，已从2020年的约5%升至2023年的约20%。从更长周期看，人民币在货物贸易跨境结算中的占比目前已接近30%，较2018年的12%大幅提升。前中国人民银行行长周小川近期亦表示，随着市场对美元信心的削弱以及中国贸易顺差的持续扩大，人民币国际化正进入“黄金时期”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f08b37dfdf93802d518e08d020069c2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ddd150a76118e4e126a1ac62e398245\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_517802880\">看涨人民币至6.70，央行或侧重节奏管控</h2><p>基于上述中期看多逻辑，摩根大通进一步看涨人民币，相应下调<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDCNY.FOREX\">美元/人民币</a>汇率预测。</p><p>具体而言，该行将2026年第二季度至第四季度及2027年第一季度的美元/人民币目标价，由此前各季度均为6.85，依次调至6.80、6.75、6.70及6.70。报告指出，<strong>6.70的目标更多反映对人民币升值方向与幅度的判断</strong>，而非对具体路径的精确预判，实际升值过程可能比预测曲线更为曲折。</p><p>从央行行为看，中国人民银行近期再度出现逆周期调控迹象，反向调节因子重新激活。但摩根大通认为，央行不会“划定硬性底线”，更可能的政策取向是通过节奏管控引导人民币有序升值，而非阻断升值趋势。</p><p>在交易层面，由于现货汇率与中间价之间仍存在较大偏离，摩根大通当前对美元/人民币维持中性立场。不过，该行更倾向于利用汇率反弹机会重新建立美元空头头寸，而非在当前水平追涨美元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{"CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","JPO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2628872850","content_text":"人民币汇率延续偏强走势。尽管近两个交易日有所回调，但幅度有限，整体仍处高位。4月20日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率报6.8198；4月14日一度触及6.8156，创下2023年3月以来新高。摩根大通认为，企业结汇需求构成人民币中期走强的重要支撑。中国企业的美元抛盘更具持续性，春节季节性因素消退后动能依然强劲。3月总外汇结算比率与净外汇结算比率均创2020年以来同期最高水平。更重要的是，出口商不仅将当期增量美元收入结汇，还在主动消耗过去数年积累的存量美元储蓄。与此同时，人民币的避险属性也在提升。中东冲突期间，美元兑离岸人民币始终维持在7.0关口下方，人民币的相对稳定性，叠加“石油美元体系分化”叙事及能源贸易中人民币计价占比的上升，共同强化了其避险吸引力。基于中期看涨逻辑的强化，摩根大通上调了对人民币的预期，相应下调美元兑人民币汇率预测，预计未来几个季度将测试6.70水平。值得注意的是，近期逆周期因子再度活跃，显示央行调节意愿有所回归，但摩根大通认为央行更可能的政策取向是通过节奏管控引导人民币有序升值。企业持续抛售美元，结汇潜力支撑人民币中期走强支撑人民币中期走强的结构性力量正在积聚，中国企业持续抛售美元是核心驱动之一。外汇管理局数据显示，3月企业结汇动能强劲，且超出春节季节性因素的解释范围。当月外汇结售汇总比率达71.0%，净结汇比率为7.7个百分点，均为2020年以来同期最高水平，表明在地缘政治与汇率波动加剧背景下，企业倾向于将美元收入兑换为人民币，结汇意愿保持强劲。更值得关注的是，企业美元净卖出规模已超过将新增美元收入结汇的理论上限。3月与货物贸易相关的美元净卖出达600亿美元，与2月持平，而同期贸易顺差有所收窄。按外汇管理局口径，当月出口商新增贸易美元收入约500亿美元，其中约30%可能以人民币计价结算，剩余约350亿美元理论上需结汇。实际结汇量远超这一估算，意味着出口商不仅在结汇新增美元收入，还在主动消耗过去数年积累的存量美元储蓄。摩根大通估算，2022年至2025年间，中国企业可能累积了6000亿至9000亿美元的海外美元存款。这一庞大的存量资金构成持续的结汇潜力，足以在较长时间内为人民币升值提供有力支撑。避险属性崛起，大宗商品人民币结算比例快速攀升除企业结汇外，人民币作为全球交易货币的地位提升，正为其中期走强提供支撑路径。在中东冲突期间，美元/离岸人民币始终稳守7关口下方，人民币的相对稳定性显著强化了其“避险货币”叙事。与此同时，围绕“石油美元体系分化”及人民币在能源贸易中计价结算比例上升的讨论持续升温。数据印证了这一趋势。大宗商品相关人民币结算金额占人民币计价货物贸易总额的比例，已从2020年的约5%升至2023年的约20%。从更长周期看，人民币在货物贸易跨境结算中的占比目前已接近30%，较2018年的12%大幅提升。前中国人民银行行长周小川近期亦表示，随着市场对美元信心的削弱以及中国贸易顺差的持续扩大，人民币国际化正进入“黄金时期”。看涨人民币至6.70，央行或侧重节奏管控基于上述中期看多逻辑，摩根大通进一步看涨人民币，相应下调美元/人民币汇率预测。具体而言，该行将2026年第二季度至第四季度及2027年第一季度的美元/人民币目标价，由此前各季度均为6.85，依次调至6.80、6.75、6.70及6.70。报告指出，6.70的目标更多反映对人民币升值方向与幅度的判断，而非对具体路径的精确预判，实际升值过程可能比预测曲线更为曲折。从央行行为看，中国人民银行近期再度出现逆周期调控迹象，反向调节因子重新激活。但摩根大通认为，央行不会“划定硬性底线”，更可能的政策取向是通过节奏管控引导人民币有序升值，而非阻断升值趋势。在交易层面，由于现货汇率与中间价之间仍存在较大偏离，摩根大通当前对美元/人民币维持中性立场。不过，该行更倾向于利用汇率反弹机会重新建立美元空头头寸，而非在当前水平追涨美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USDindex.FOREX":2,"UUP":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"JPO":0.6,"USDCNH.FOREX":2,"CYB":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509207152751384,"gmtCreate":1765344714885,"gmtModify":1765344717298,"author":{"id":"4170648728014932","authorId":"4170648728014932","name":"5702046G","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc24361b1d29e4b2aefeac87c6240b1f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4170648728014932","idStr":"4170648728014932"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哦","listText":"哦","text":"哦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509207152751384","repostId":"2590377522","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2590377522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765337803,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590377522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-10 11:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"国台办回应赖清德当局出卖台积电：媚美卖台还文过饰非 无耻至极","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590377522","media":"中国新闻网","summary":"中新网12月10日电 12月10日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。有记者问：赖清德日前接受媒体采访时称，支持台积电或半导体产业到美国、日本、欧洲去，以促进世界的繁荣与进步。请问国台办对此有何评论？发言人陈斌华表示，这再次证明，赖清德当局是不折不扣的“卖台专业户”、恬不知耻的“诈骗集团”。明明是台湾几代民众辛苦打拼而积攒的宝贵资产在被掠夺、被掏空，他们却粉饰为“促进世界的繁荣与进步”；明明是岛内产业、企业和民众利益在被奉送、被牺牲，他们还洋洋得意于“为美国制造业作出贡献”。如此媚美卖台还文过饰非，真是无耻至极。","content":"<div>\n<p>中新网12月10日电 12月10日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。有记者问：赖清德日前接受媒体采访时称，支持台积电或半导体产业到美国、日本、欧洲去，以促进世界的繁荣与进步。请问国台办对此有何评论？发言人陈斌华表示，这再次证明，赖清德当局是不折不扣的“卖台专业户”、恬不知耻的“诈骗集团”。明明是台湾几代民众辛苦打拼而积攒的宝贵资产在被掠夺、被掏空，他们却粉饰为“促进世界的繁荣与进步”；明明是岛内产业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oy4MqHyCpB\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国台办回应赖清德当局出卖台积电：媚美卖台还文过饰非 无耻至极</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国台办回应赖清德当局出卖台积电：媚美卖台还文过饰非 无耻至极\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-10 11:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oy4MqHyCpB><strong>中国新闻网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中新网12月10日电 12月10日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。有记者问：赖清德日前接受媒体采访时称，支持台积电或半导体产业到美国、日本、欧洲去，以促进世界的繁荣与进步。请问国台办对此有何评论？发言人陈斌华表示，这再次证明，赖清德当局是不折不扣的“卖台专业户”、恬不知耻的“诈骗集团”。明明是台湾几代民众辛苦打拼而积攒的宝贵资产在被掠夺、被掏空，他们却粉饰为“促进世界的繁荣与进步”；明明是岛内产业...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oy4MqHyCpB\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4543":"AI","SG9999004220.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Asia Dividend Equity Fund  SGD","LU0878004406.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) 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12月10日，国务院台办举行例行新闻发布会。有记者问：赖清德日前接受媒体采访时称，支持台积电或半导体产业到美国、日本、欧洲去，以促进世界的繁荣与进步。请问国台办对此有何评论？发言人陈斌华表示，这再次证明，赖清德当局是不折不扣的“卖台专业户”、恬不知耻的“诈骗集团”。明明是台湾几代民众辛苦打拼而积攒的宝贵资产在被掠夺、被掏空，他们却粉饰为“促进世界的繁荣与进步”；明明是岛内产业、企业和民众利益在被奉送、被牺牲，他们还洋洋得意于“为美国制造业作出贡献”。如此媚美卖台还文过饰非，真是无耻至极。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"TSM":1.91}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":491370636583744,"gmtCreate":1760984646355,"gmtModify":1760984648133,"author":{"id":"4170648728014932","authorId":"4170648728014932","name":"5702046G","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc24361b1d29e4b2aefeac87c6240b1f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4170648728014932","idStr":"4170648728014932"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a> 流通股越来越少，懂得都懂","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$</a> 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