百万美刀的个人主页 - 老虎社区

百万美刀

百万美刀

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10-09 19:20

10 月份不可能加息啦，

下周美国CPI的决定性意义：美联储10月不加息？

2025-05-13

必须打

2025-05-10

研究显示：每晚睡前一小时喝一杯热牛奶，会比不喝牛奶的人多花几块钱

2025-03-06

那肯定是抄袭了代码

阿里推出全新推理模型，仅1/20参数媲美DeepSeek R1

2025-02-18

好东西。以后不断赚钱

2025-02-13

$ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF(BITU)$ 早日起来。最近BTC就是一个蒸荡行情

2025-01-29

红包大作战

2025-01-29

新年快乐举杯敬此年

2025-01-26

乐翻天

2025-01-24

$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$

2025-01-20

准备好了，继续大赚

2025-01-12

梦回 2024 年

2025-01-07

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 还可以，功夫不负有心人

2024-12-28

耐心和信心。然后反应速度

2024-12-23

马上到20w，大家等着上车

2024-12-08

活动活动赚钱

2024-12-03

$GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF(CONL)$ 又赚了

2024-11-29

在 coin 吃到了肉

2024-11-20

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 回本了

2024-11-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 350能到？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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月份不可能加息啦，","listText":"10 月份不可能加息啦，","text":"10 月份不可能加息啦，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616552936903224","repostId":"2674837763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2674837763","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1791544016,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2674837763?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-09 19:06","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"下周美国CPI的决定性意义：美联储10月不加息？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2674837763","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巴克莱、大摩均预计9月核心CPI环比涨幅从8月的0.29%放缓至0.24%，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨幅回落。能源推高整体通胀，但核心压力边际缓和，为美联储10月按兵不动提供依据。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">能源价格再度主导通胀走势，但核心压力边际趋缓，为美联储按兵不动提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局将于10月14日（下周三）公布9月CPI数据。据追风交易台消息，据巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测，9月整体CPI将因汽油价格大幅走高而加速上行，但核心CPI环比涨幅料较8月小幅收窄，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨势部分回落。<strong>两家机构均将核心CPI环比涨幅预测为0.24%，低于8月的0.29%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该数据将直接影响美联储10月议息会议决策。<strong>巴克莱研究认为，尽管近期通胀风险仍偏上行，美联储官员很可能在10月维持利率不变，继续观察后续数据，并将25个基点的加息路径推后至12月。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c129d0ba945366eb2239eb4ec36d8ed\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"592\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储稍早前公布的9月会议纪要显示，<strong>“大多数”预计年内再加息一次，但暗示10月不急</strong>。美联储理事沃勒表示，<strong>加息无需在连续政策会议上进行</strong>，官员可以根据经济数据灵活把握时机。市场已将加息预期从10月推迟至12月，高盛认为，12月加息概率更大，但FOMC最终判断无需进一步紧缩的可能性同样相当大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">能源拉动整体通胀，标题数据跳升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>巴克莱预测，9月整体CPI环比上涨0.58%（经季节性调整），同比升至3.7%，较8月的3.4%上行约0.3个百分点，不过仍低于今年5月4.2%的阶段性高点。摩根士丹利预测略高，同比涨幅为3.69%，环比为0.62%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>能源是此次整体通胀跳升的核心驱动力。</strong>据巴克莱预测，能源分项环比涨幅高达5.05%，其中汽油价格环比大涨9.23%，同比涨幅达34.8%；取暖油同比更高达38.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利指出，中东局势持续紧张是推高油价的重要因素，并将进一步传导至航空票价和运输成本。巴克莱研究团队在此前报告中亦警示，柴油价格上涨正逐步向美国消费者端传导。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dc83ec8fabaaa50aee467c557c7409a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"660\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀小幅放缓，无线通信回落是主因</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在整体通胀走高的同时，核心CPI压力略有缓和。巴克莱预测9月核心CPI环比上涨0.24%，同比2.5%；摩根士丹利预测一致，亦为0.24%，两者均较8月的0.29%下降5个基点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀放缓的主要动力来自&#34;教育与通信&#34;分项。8月，无线通信服务价格异常跳升，单月贡献核心CPI约0.1个百分点。巴克莱预计，Verizon最新一轮提价叠加AT&amp;T计划涨价幅度收窄，该分项9月仍将对通胀形成拉动，但力度将明显小于上月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，航空票价和医疗服务价格依然是核心通胀的支撑项。摩根士丹利指出，8月航空票价已同比上涨23%，9月仍预测环比上涨1.8%；巴克莱则预测航空票价环比涨2.6%。摩根士丹利补充，喷气燃料价格同比涨幅接近90%，而燃油占航空公司运营成本约20%至30%，按此测算，航空公司对燃油成本上涨的价格转嫁或已接近完整。此外，医疗服务在8月走弱后，摩根士丹利预测9月将环比反弹0.55%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02544d61c444d1a9352343c832e47030\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"773\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心商品方面，巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测环比涨幅维持在0.13%至0.14%区间，与8月基本持平，新车和旧车价格小幅走强。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">住房通胀趋于稳定，保险拖累持续</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">住房分项延续平稳走势。巴克莱预测，9月业主等价租金（OER）环比上涨0.24%，主要居所租金上涨0.23%；摩根士丹利预测OER和主要居所租金分别为0.25%和0.20%。摩根士丹利指出，今年5月以来，住房通胀月均涨幅约0.24%，略低于疫情前0.26%的长期趋势，预计近期将在该水平附近波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车保险继续对核心通胀形成拖累。摩根士丹利预测，9月车险保费环比下降0.20%，并预期负增长态势将延续至2027年，主要原因是保险公司盈利状况改善，促使其通过降价争夺市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">酒店价格方面，8月在连续两个月异常走弱后强劲反弹，摩根士丹利预测9月将回归平盘（0%环比）。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">PCE通胀预测：料维持在3%附近</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPI数据对美联储更为关注的PCE通胀指标同样具有指引意义。<strong>巴克莱将9月核心PCE通胀预测为0.22%环比，同比约3.0%；摩根士丹利预测则略高，为0.23%环比。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱研究人员Pooja Sriram、Marc Giannoni、Jonathan Millar及Colin Johanson指出，金融服务PCE价格存在一定不确定性，尤其是美国经济分析局（BEA）采用新方法估算投资组合管理服务价格，所需的名义支出和工时数据可能无法及时获取，增加了预测难度。团队表示，将在下周CPI及PPI数据公布后进一步修正预测。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储路径：10月按兵不动，12月加息25基点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从政策路径来看，巴克莱维持基准预测：美联储12月加息25个基点。该机构指出，受基数效应拖累，主席沃什偏好的6个月和12个月等中长期通胀指标今年内难以显著改善，但2027年前景将明显好转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期美联储官员的表态显示，通胀结果分布的不确定性或在风险管理层面支持进一步收紧，但巴克莱预计决策者将在10月选择观望，等待更多数据验证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得关注的是，摩根士丹利提醒，本次报告有几个关键变量需要密切跟踪：一是苹果9月9日发布新款iPhone时对部分旧款机型上调了10%至14%的价格，但由于智能手机在CPI篮子中权重仅约0.2%，且部分地区采样为双月频率，直接影响预计不超过1至1.4个基点；二是航空票价的进一步涨价空间是否已接近天花板；三是住房通胀能否维持当前稳定节奏。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n下周美国CPI的决定性意义：美联储10月不加息？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-09 19:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">能源价格再度主导通胀走势，但核心压力边际趋缓，为美联储按兵不动提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局将于10月14日（下周三）公布9月CPI数据。据追风交易台消息，据巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测，9月整体CPI将因汽油价格大幅走高而加速上行，但核心CPI环比涨幅料较8月小幅收窄，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨势部分回落。<strong>两家机构均将核心CPI环比涨幅预测为0.24%，低于8月的0.29%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该数据将直接影响美联储10月议息会议决策。<strong>巴克莱研究认为，尽管近期通胀风险仍偏上行，美联储官员很可能在10月维持利率不变，继续观察后续数据，并将25个基点的加息路径推后至12月。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c129d0ba945366eb2239eb4ec36d8ed\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"592\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储稍早前公布的9月会议纪要显示，<strong>“大多数”预计年内再加息一次，但暗示10月不急</strong>。美联储理事沃勒表示，<strong>加息无需在连续政策会议上进行</strong>，官员可以根据经济数据灵活把握时机。市场已将加息预期从10月推迟至12月，高盛认为，12月加息概率更大，但FOMC最终判断无需进一步紧缩的可能性同样相当大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">能源拉动整体通胀，标题数据跳升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>巴克莱预测，9月整体CPI环比上涨0.58%（经季节性调整），同比升至3.7%，较8月的3.4%上行约0.3个百分点，不过仍低于今年5月4.2%的阶段性高点。摩根士丹利预测略高，同比涨幅为3.69%，环比为0.62%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>能源是此次整体通胀跳升的核心驱动力。</strong>据巴克莱预测，能源分项环比涨幅高达5.05%，其中汽油价格环比大涨9.23%，同比涨幅达34.8%；取暖油同比更高达38.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利指出，中东局势持续紧张是推高油价的重要因素，并将进一步传导至航空票价和运输成本。巴克莱研究团队在此前报告中亦警示，柴油价格上涨正逐步向美国消费者端传导。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dc83ec8fabaaa50aee467c557c7409a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"660\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀小幅放缓，无线通信回落是主因</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在整体通胀走高的同时，核心CPI压力略有缓和。巴克莱预测9月核心CPI环比上涨0.24%，同比2.5%；摩根士丹利预测一致，亦为0.24%，两者均较8月的0.29%下降5个基点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀放缓的主要动力来自&#34;教育与通信&#34;分项。8月，无线通信服务价格异常跳升，单月贡献核心CPI约0.1个百分点。巴克莱预计，Verizon最新一轮提价叠加AT&amp;T计划涨价幅度收窄，该分项9月仍将对通胀形成拉动，但力度将明显小于上月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，航空票价和医疗服务价格依然是核心通胀的支撑项。摩根士丹利指出，8月航空票价已同比上涨23%，9月仍预测环比上涨1.8%；巴克莱则预测航空票价环比涨2.6%。摩根士丹利补充，喷气燃料价格同比涨幅接近90%，而燃油占航空公司运营成本约20%至30%，按此测算，航空公司对燃油成本上涨的价格转嫁或已接近完整。此外，医疗服务在8月走弱后，摩根士丹利预测9月将环比反弹0.55%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02544d61c444d1a9352343c832e47030\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"773\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心商品方面，巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测环比涨幅维持在0.13%至0.14%区间，与8月基本持平，新车和旧车价格小幅走强。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">住房通胀趋于稳定，保险拖累持续</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">住房分项延续平稳走势。巴克莱预测，9月业主等价租金（OER）环比上涨0.24%，主要居所租金上涨0.23%；摩根士丹利预测OER和主要居所租金分别为0.25%和0.20%。摩根士丹利指出，今年5月以来，住房通胀月均涨幅约0.24%，略低于疫情前0.26%的长期趋势，预计近期将在该水平附近波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车保险继续对核心通胀形成拖累。摩根士丹利预测，9月车险保费环比下降0.20%，并预期负增长态势将延续至2027年，主要原因是保险公司盈利状况改善，促使其通过降价争夺市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">酒店价格方面，8月在连续两个月异常走弱后强劲反弹，摩根士丹利预测9月将回归平盘（0%环比）。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">PCE通胀预测：料维持在3%附近</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPI数据对美联储更为关注的PCE通胀指标同样具有指引意义。<strong>巴克莱将9月核心PCE通胀预测为0.22%环比，同比约3.0%；摩根士丹利预测则略高，为0.23%环比。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱研究人员Pooja Sriram、Marc Giannoni、Jonathan Millar及Colin Johanson指出，金融服务PCE价格存在一定不确定性，尤其是美国经济分析局（BEA）采用新方法估算投资组合管理服务价格，所需的名义支出和工时数据可能无法及时获取，增加了预测难度。团队表示，将在下周CPI及PPI数据公布后进一步修正预测。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储路径：10月按兵不动，12月加息25基点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从政策路径来看，巴克莱维持基准预测：美联储12月加息25个基点。该机构指出，受基数效应拖累，主席沃什偏好的6个月和12个月等中长期通胀指标今年内难以显著改善，但2027年前景将明显好转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期美联储官员的表态显示，通胀结果分布的不确定性或在风险管理层面支持进一步收紧，但巴克莱预计决策者将在10月选择观望，等待更多数据验证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得关注的是，摩根士丹利提醒，本次报告有几个关键变量需要密切跟踪：一是苹果9月9日发布新款iPhone时对部分旧款机型上调了10%至14%的价格，但由于智能手机在CPI篮子中权重仅约0.2%，且部分地区采样为双月频率，直接影响预计不超过1至1.4个基点；二是航空票价的进一步涨价空间是否已接近天花板；三是住房通胀能否维持当前稳定节奏。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"SHV":"Ishares Trust Trust Ishares 0-1 YEAR Treasury BOND ETF","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","HMOP":"Hartford Municipal Opportunities ETF","XLRI":"The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Premium Income Fund","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X 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LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","FEM":"First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX Fund","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","OOQB":"One+One Bitcoin and Ether ETF","03599":"广发港美科技","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","EMPB":"Efficient Market Portfolio Plus ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","IBTK":"iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term Treasury ETF","RYSE":"Vest 10 Year Interest Rate Hedge ETF","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","IBII":"ISHARES IBONDS OCT 2032 TERM TIPS ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","XBIL":"US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3783267","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2674837763","content_text":"能源价格再度主导通胀走势，但核心压力边际趋缓，为美联储按兵不动提供支撑。美国劳工统计局将于10月14日（下周三）公布9月CPI数据。据追风交易台消息，据巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测，9月整体CPI将因汽油价格大幅走高而加速上行，但核心CPI环比涨幅料较8月小幅收窄，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨势部分回落。两家机构均将核心CPI环比涨幅预测为0.24%，低于8月的0.29%。该数据将直接影响美联储10月议息会议决策。巴克莱研究认为，尽管近期通胀风险仍偏上行，美联储官员很可能在10月维持利率不变，继续观察后续数据，并将25个基点的加息路径推后至12月。美联储稍早前公布的9月会议纪要显示，“大多数”预计年内再加息一次，但暗示10月不急。美联储理事沃勒表示，加息无需在连续政策会议上进行，官员可以根据经济数据灵活把握时机。市场已将加息预期从10月推迟至12月，高盛认为，12月加息概率更大，但FOMC最终判断无需进一步紧缩的可能性同样相当大。能源拉动整体通胀，标题数据跳升巴克莱预测，9月整体CPI环比上涨0.58%（经季节性调整），同比升至3.7%，较8月的3.4%上行约0.3个百分点，不过仍低于今年5月4.2%的阶段性高点。摩根士丹利预测略高，同比涨幅为3.69%，环比为0.62%。能源是此次整体通胀跳升的核心驱动力。据巴克莱预测，能源分项环比涨幅高达5.05%，其中汽油价格环比大涨9.23%，同比涨幅达34.8%；取暖油同比更高达38.8%。摩根士丹利指出，中东局势持续紧张是推高油价的重要因素，并将进一步传导至航空票价和运输成本。巴克莱研究团队在此前报告中亦警示，柴油价格上涨正逐步向美国消费者端传导。核心通胀小幅放缓，无线通信回落是主因在整体通胀走高的同时，核心CPI压力略有缓和。巴克莱预测9月核心CPI环比上涨0.24%，同比2.5%；摩根士丹利预测一致，亦为0.24%，两者均较8月的0.29%下降5个基点。核心通胀放缓的主要动力来自\"教育与通信\"分项。8月，无线通信服务价格异常跳升，单月贡献核心CPI约0.1个百分点。巴克莱预计，Verizon最新一轮提价叠加AT&T计划涨价幅度收窄，该分项9月仍将对通胀形成拉动，但力度将明显小于上月。与此同时，航空票价和医疗服务价格依然是核心通胀的支撑项。摩根士丹利指出，8月航空票价已同比上涨23%，9月仍预测环比上涨1.8%；巴克莱则预测航空票价环比涨2.6%。摩根士丹利补充，喷气燃料价格同比涨幅接近90%，而燃油占航空公司运营成本约20%至30%，按此测算，航空公司对燃油成本上涨的价格转嫁或已接近完整。此外，医疗服务在8月走弱后，摩根士丹利预测9月将环比反弹0.55%。核心商品方面，巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测环比涨幅维持在0.13%至0.14%区间，与8月基本持平，新车和旧车价格小幅走强。住房通胀趋于稳定，保险拖累持续住房分项延续平稳走势。巴克莱预测，9月业主等价租金（OER）环比上涨0.24%，主要居所租金上涨0.23%；摩根士丹利预测OER和主要居所租金分别为0.25%和0.20%。摩根士丹利指出，今年5月以来，住房通胀月均涨幅约0.24%，略低于疫情前0.26%的长期趋势，预计近期将在该水平附近波动。汽车保险继续对核心通胀形成拖累。摩根士丹利预测，9月车险保费环比下降0.20%，并预期负增长态势将延续至2027年，主要原因是保险公司盈利状况改善，促使其通过降价争夺市场份额。酒店价格方面，8月在连续两个月异常走弱后强劲反弹，摩根士丹利预测9月将回归平盘（0%环比）。PCE通胀预测：料维持在3%附近CPI数据对美联储更为关注的PCE通胀指标同样具有指引意义。巴克莱将9月核心PCE通胀预测为0.22%环比，同比约3.0%；摩根士丹利预测则略高，为0.23%环比。巴克莱研究人员Pooja Sriram、Marc Giannoni、Jonathan Millar及Colin Johanson指出，金融服务PCE价格存在一定不确定性，尤其是美国经济分析局（BEA）采用新方法估算投资组合管理服务价格，所需的名义支出和工时数据可能无法及时获取，增加了预测难度。团队表示，将在下周CPI及PPI数据公布后进一步修正预测。美联储路径：10月按兵不动，12月加息25基点从政策路径来看，巴克莱维持基准预测：美联储12月加息25个基点。该机构指出，受基数效应拖累，主席沃什偏好的6个月和12个月等中长期通胀指标今年内难以显著改善，但2027年前景将明显好转。近期美联储官员的表态显示，通胀结果分布的不确定性或在风险管理层面支持进一步收紧，但巴克莱预计决策者将在10月选择观望，等待更多数据验证。值得关注的是，摩根士丹利提醒，本次报告有几个关键变量需要密切跟踪：一是苹果9月9日发布新款iPhone时对部分旧款机型上调了10%至14%的价格，但由于智能手机在CPI篮子中权重仅约0.2%，且部分地区采样为双月频率，直接影响预计不超过1至1.4个基点；二是航空票价的进一步涨价空间是否已接近天花板；三是住房通胀能否维持当前稳定节奏。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US6M.BOND":1.5,"EMPB":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"XBIL":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"SPDN":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"VGSH":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"DMAX":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,".DJI":2,"SPYM":0.6,"MUB":1.5,"MUNX":1.5,"FEM":1.5,"UPRO":0.6,"IBII":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"SPYQ":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"SHV":1.5,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"TBIL":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"OOQB":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"MMAX":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"RYSE":1.5,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"HYG":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"IBTK":1.5,"HIBL":0.6,"VGIT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"SPYH":0.6,".IXIC":2,"GOVT":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,".SPX":2,"JULD":1.5,"DDM":0.6,"IEF":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"RAUS":1.5,"VEXC":1.5,"SH":0.6,"TLTW":1.5,"UDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"STIP":1.5,"LIBD":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"03599":1.5,"DXD":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"LIAJ":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":434574475285384,"gmtCreate":1747131107990,"gmtModify":1747131110135,"author":{"id":"4169435791132792","authorId":"4169435791132792","name":"百万美刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe3645a0b38dbd09a5345392904c86a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169435791132792","authorIdStr":"4169435791132792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"必须打","listText":"必须打","text":"必须打","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/434574475285384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":433367021195272,"gmtCreate":1746836209901,"gmtModify":1746836212148,"author":{"id":"4169435791132792","authorId":"4169435791132792","name":"百万美刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe3645a0b38dbd09a5345392904c86a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169435791132792","authorIdStr":"4169435791132792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"研究显示：每晚睡前一小时喝一杯热牛奶，会比不喝牛奶的人多花几块钱","listText":"研究显示：每晚睡前一小时喝一杯热牛奶，会比不喝牛奶的人多花几块钱","text":"研究显示：每晚睡前一小时喝一杯热牛奶，会比不喝牛奶的人多花几块钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/433367021195272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":410524855345632,"gmtCreate":1741235772143,"gmtModify":1741235773902,"author":{"id":"4169435791132792","authorId":"4169435791132792","name":"百万美刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe3645a0b38dbd09a5345392904c86a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169435791132792","authorIdStr":"4169435791132792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"那肯定是抄袭了代码","listText":"那肯定是抄袭了代码","text":"那肯定是抄袭了代码","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410524855345632","repostId":"1168774029","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168774029","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1741214757,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168774029?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-03-06 06:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里推出全新推理模型，仅1/20参数媲美DeepSeek R1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168774029","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月6日，阿里Qwen团队正式发布他们最新的研究成果 —— QwQ-32B大语言模型！QwQ-32B在仅有DeepSeek-R1约1/20参数量的情况下， 用强化学习，实现了性能上的惊人跨越！官方给出基准评测结果，涵盖了数学推理、代码能力和通用问题解决等多个方面。从数据中我们可以清晰地看到，在 AIME24 和 IFEval 等关键基准测试中，QwQ-32B 的表现甚至略微超过了参数量巨大的 DeepSeek-R1！ 而在其他基准测试中，也基本与 DeepSeek-R1 持平，远超其他对比模型。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月6日，阿里Qwen团队正式发布他们最新的研究成果 —— QwQ-32B大语言模型！QwQ-32B在仅有DeepSeek-R1约1/20参数量的情况下， 用强化学习，实现了性能上的惊人跨越！</p><p>官方给出基准评测结果，涵盖了数学推理、代码能力和通用问题解决等多个方面。从数据中我们可以清晰地看到，在 AIME24 和 IFEval 等关键基准测试中，QwQ-32B 的表现甚至略微超过了参数量巨大的 DeepSeek-R1！ 而在其他基准测试中，也基本与 DeepSeek-R1 持平，远超其他对比模型。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9cced590091aba4ccdef45108774c3\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"477\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里推出全新推理模型，仅1/20参数媲美DeepSeek R1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里推出全新推理模型，仅1/20参数媲美DeepSeek R1\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-06 06:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月6日，阿里Qwen团队正式发布他们最新的研究成果 —— QwQ-32B大语言模型！QwQ-32B在仅有DeepSeek-R1约1/20参数量的情况下， 用强化学习，实现了性能上的惊人跨越！</p><p>官方给出基准评测结果，涵盖了数学推理、代码能力和通用问题解决等多个方面。从数据中我们可以清晰地看到，在 AIME24 和 IFEval 等关键基准测试中，QwQ-32B 的表现甚至略微超过了参数量巨大的 DeepSeek-R1！ 而在其他基准测试中，也基本与 DeepSeek-R1 持平，远超其他对比模型。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9cced590091aba4ccdef45108774c3\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"477\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ 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06:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里推出全新推理模型，仅1/20参数媲美DeepSeek R1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168774029","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月6日，阿里Qwen团队正式发布他们最新的研究成果 —— QwQ-32B大语言模型！QwQ-32B在仅有DeepSeek-R1约1/20参数量的情况下， 用强化学习，实现了性能上的惊人跨越！官方给出基准评测结果，涵盖了数学推理、代码能力和通用问题解决等多个方面。从数据中我们可以清晰地看到，在 AIME24 和 IFEval 等关键基准测试中，QwQ-32B 的表现甚至略微超过了参数量巨大的 DeepSeek-R1！ 而在其他基准测试中，也基本与 DeepSeek-R1 持平，远超其他对比模型。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月6日，阿里Qwen团队正式发布他们最新的研究成果 —— QwQ-32B大语言模型！QwQ-32B在仅有DeepSeek-R1约1/20参数量的情况下， 用强化学习，实现了性能上的惊人跨越！</p><p>官方给出基准评测结果，涵盖了数学推理、代码能力和通用问题解决等多个方面。从数据中我们可以清晰地看到，在 AIME24 和 IFEval 等关键基准测试中，QwQ-32B 的表现甚至略微超过了参数量巨大的 DeepSeek-R1！ 而在其他基准测试中，也基本与 DeepSeek-R1 持平，远超其他对比模型。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9cced590091aba4ccdef45108774c3\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"477\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里推出全新推理模型，仅1/20参数媲美DeepSeek R1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-06 06:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月6日，阿里Qwen团队正式发布他们最新的研究成果 —— QwQ-32B大语言模型！QwQ-32B在仅有DeepSeek-R1约1/20参数量的情况下， 用强化学习，实现了性能上的惊人跨越！</p><p>官方给出基准评测结果，涵盖了数学推理、代码能力和通用问题解决等多个方面。从数据中我们可以清晰地看到，在 AIME24 和 IFEval 等关键基准测试中，QwQ-32B 的表现甚至略微超过了参数量巨大的 DeepSeek-R1！ 而在其他基准测试中，也基本与 DeepSeek-R1 持平，远超其他对比模型。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9cced590091aba4ccdef45108774c3\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"477\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU2226246903.HKD":"ALLIANZ 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持平，远超其他对比模型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":404949200843384,"gmtCreate":1739889008239,"gmtModify":1739889011697,"author":{"id":"4169435791132792","authorId":"4169435791132792","name":"百万美刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe3645a0b38dbd09a5345392904c86a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169435791132792","authorIdStr":"4169435791132792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好东西。以后不断赚钱","listText":"好东西。以后不断赚钱","text":"好东西。以后不断赚钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/404949200843384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616552936903224,"gmtCreate":1791544814209,"gmtModify":1791544816501,"author":{"id":"4169435791132792","authorId":"4169435791132792","name":"百万美刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe3645a0b38dbd09a5345392904c86a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169435791132792","authorIdStr":"4169435791132792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"10 月份不可能加息啦，","listText":"10 月份不可能加息啦，","text":"10 月份不可能加息啦，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616552936903224","repostId":"2674837763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2674837763","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1791544016,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2674837763?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-09 19:06","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"下周美国CPI的决定性意义：美联储10月不加息？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2674837763","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巴克莱、大摩均预计9月核心CPI环比涨幅从8月的0.29%放缓至0.24%，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨幅回落。能源推高整体通胀，但核心压力边际缓和，为美联储10月按兵不动提供依据。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">能源价格再度主导通胀走势，但核心压力边际趋缓，为美联储按兵不动提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局将于10月14日（下周三）公布9月CPI数据。据追风交易台消息，据巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测，9月整体CPI将因汽油价格大幅走高而加速上行，但核心CPI环比涨幅料较8月小幅收窄，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨势部分回落。<strong>两家机构均将核心CPI环比涨幅预测为0.24%，低于8月的0.29%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该数据将直接影响美联储10月议息会议决策。<strong>巴克莱研究认为，尽管近期通胀风险仍偏上行，美联储官员很可能在10月维持利率不变，继续观察后续数据，并将25个基点的加息路径推后至12月。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c129d0ba945366eb2239eb4ec36d8ed\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"592\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储稍早前公布的9月会议纪要显示，<strong>“大多数”预计年内再加息一次，但暗示10月不急</strong>。美联储理事沃勒表示，<strong>加息无需在连续政策会议上进行</strong>，官员可以根据经济数据灵活把握时机。市场已将加息预期从10月推迟至12月，高盛认为，12月加息概率更大，但FOMC最终判断无需进一步紧缩的可能性同样相当大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">能源拉动整体通胀，标题数据跳升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>巴克莱预测，9月整体CPI环比上涨0.58%（经季节性调整），同比升至3.7%，较8月的3.4%上行约0.3个百分点，不过仍低于今年5月4.2%的阶段性高点。摩根士丹利预测略高，同比涨幅为3.69%，环比为0.62%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>能源是此次整体通胀跳升的核心驱动力。</strong>据巴克莱预测，能源分项环比涨幅高达5.05%，其中汽油价格环比大涨9.23%，同比涨幅达34.8%；取暖油同比更高达38.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利指出，中东局势持续紧张是推高油价的重要因素，并将进一步传导至航空票价和运输成本。巴克莱研究团队在此前报告中亦警示，柴油价格上涨正逐步向美国消费者端传导。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dc83ec8fabaaa50aee467c557c7409a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"660\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀小幅放缓，无线通信回落是主因</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在整体通胀走高的同时，核心CPI压力略有缓和。巴克莱预测9月核心CPI环比上涨0.24%，同比2.5%；摩根士丹利预测一致，亦为0.24%，两者均较8月的0.29%下降5个基点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀放缓的主要动力来自&#34;教育与通信&#34;分项。8月，无线通信服务价格异常跳升，单月贡献核心CPI约0.1个百分点。巴克莱预计，Verizon最新一轮提价叠加AT&amp;T计划涨价幅度收窄，该分项9月仍将对通胀形成拉动，但力度将明显小于上月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，航空票价和医疗服务价格依然是核心通胀的支撑项。摩根士丹利指出，8月航空票价已同比上涨23%，9月仍预测环比上涨1.8%；巴克莱则预测航空票价环比涨2.6%。摩根士丹利补充，喷气燃料价格同比涨幅接近90%，而燃油占航空公司运营成本约20%至30%，按此测算，航空公司对燃油成本上涨的价格转嫁或已接近完整。此外，医疗服务在8月走弱后，摩根士丹利预测9月将环比反弹0.55%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02544d61c444d1a9352343c832e47030\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"773\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心商品方面，巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测环比涨幅维持在0.13%至0.14%区间，与8月基本持平，新车和旧车价格小幅走强。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">住房通胀趋于稳定，保险拖累持续</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">住房分项延续平稳走势。巴克莱预测，9月业主等价租金（OER）环比上涨0.24%，主要居所租金上涨0.23%；摩根士丹利预测OER和主要居所租金分别为0.25%和0.20%。摩根士丹利指出，今年5月以来，住房通胀月均涨幅约0.24%，略低于疫情前0.26%的长期趋势，预计近期将在该水平附近波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车保险继续对核心通胀形成拖累。摩根士丹利预测，9月车险保费环比下降0.20%，并预期负增长态势将延续至2027年，主要原因是保险公司盈利状况改善，促使其通过降价争夺市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">酒店价格方面，8月在连续两个月异常走弱后强劲反弹，摩根士丹利预测9月将回归平盘（0%环比）。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">PCE通胀预测：料维持在3%附近</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPI数据对美联储更为关注的PCE通胀指标同样具有指引意义。<strong>巴克莱将9月核心PCE通胀预测为0.22%环比，同比约3.0%；摩根士丹利预测则略高，为0.23%环比。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱研究人员Pooja Sriram、Marc Giannoni、Jonathan Millar及Colin Johanson指出，金融服务PCE价格存在一定不确定性，尤其是美国经济分析局（BEA）采用新方法估算投资组合管理服务价格，所需的名义支出和工时数据可能无法及时获取，增加了预测难度。团队表示，将在下周CPI及PPI数据公布后进一步修正预测。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储路径：10月按兵不动，12月加息25基点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从政策路径来看，巴克莱维持基准预测：美联储12月加息25个基点。该机构指出，受基数效应拖累，主席沃什偏好的6个月和12个月等中长期通胀指标今年内难以显著改善，但2027年前景将明显好转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期美联储官员的表态显示，通胀结果分布的不确定性或在风险管理层面支持进一步收紧，但巴克莱预计决策者将在10月选择观望，等待更多数据验证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得关注的是，摩根士丹利提醒，本次报告有几个关键变量需要密切跟踪：一是苹果9月9日发布新款iPhone时对部分旧款机型上调了10%至14%的价格，但由于智能手机在CPI篮子中权重仅约0.2%，且部分地区采样为双月频率，直接影响预计不超过1至1.4个基点；二是航空票价的进一步涨价空间是否已接近天花板；三是住房通胀能否维持当前稳定节奏。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n下周美国CPI的决定性意义：美联储10月不加息？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-09 19:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">能源价格再度主导通胀走势，但核心压力边际趋缓，为美联储按兵不动提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局将于10月14日（下周三）公布9月CPI数据。据追风交易台消息，据巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测，9月整体CPI将因汽油价格大幅走高而加速上行，但核心CPI环比涨幅料较8月小幅收窄，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨势部分回落。<strong>两家机构均将核心CPI环比涨幅预测为0.24%，低于8月的0.29%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该数据将直接影响美联储10月议息会议决策。<strong>巴克莱研究认为，尽管近期通胀风险仍偏上行，美联储官员很可能在10月维持利率不变，继续观察后续数据，并将25个基点的加息路径推后至12月。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c129d0ba945366eb2239eb4ec36d8ed\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"592\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储稍早前公布的9月会议纪要显示，<strong>“大多数”预计年内再加息一次，但暗示10月不急</strong>。美联储理事沃勒表示，<strong>加息无需在连续政策会议上进行</strong>，官员可以根据经济数据灵活把握时机。市场已将加息预期从10月推迟至12月，高盛认为，12月加息概率更大，但FOMC最终判断无需进一步紧缩的可能性同样相当大。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">能源拉动整体通胀，标题数据跳升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>巴克莱预测，9月整体CPI环比上涨0.58%（经季节性调整），同比升至3.7%，较8月的3.4%上行约0.3个百分点，不过仍低于今年5月4.2%的阶段性高点。摩根士丹利预测略高，同比涨幅为3.69%，环比为0.62%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>能源是此次整体通胀跳升的核心驱动力。</strong>据巴克莱预测，能源分项环比涨幅高达5.05%，其中汽油价格环比大涨9.23%，同比涨幅达34.8%；取暖油同比更高达38.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利指出，中东局势持续紧张是推高油价的重要因素，并将进一步传导至航空票价和运输成本。巴克莱研究团队在此前报告中亦警示，柴油价格上涨正逐步向美国消费者端传导。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dc83ec8fabaaa50aee467c557c7409a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"660\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀小幅放缓，无线通信回落是主因</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在整体通胀走高的同时，核心CPI压力略有缓和。巴克莱预测9月核心CPI环比上涨0.24%，同比2.5%；摩根士丹利预测一致，亦为0.24%，两者均较8月的0.29%下降5个基点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心通胀放缓的主要动力来自&#34;教育与通信&#34;分项。8月，无线通信服务价格异常跳升，单月贡献核心CPI约0.1个百分点。巴克莱预计，Verizon最新一轮提价叠加AT&amp;T计划涨价幅度收窄，该分项9月仍将对通胀形成拉动，但力度将明显小于上月。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，航空票价和医疗服务价格依然是核心通胀的支撑项。摩根士丹利指出，8月航空票价已同比上涨23%，9月仍预测环比上涨1.8%；巴克莱则预测航空票价环比涨2.6%。摩根士丹利补充，喷气燃料价格同比涨幅接近90%，而燃油占航空公司运营成本约20%至30%，按此测算，航空公司对燃油成本上涨的价格转嫁或已接近完整。此外，医疗服务在8月走弱后，摩根士丹利预测9月将环比反弹0.55%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02544d61c444d1a9352343c832e47030\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"773\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">核心商品方面，巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测环比涨幅维持在0.13%至0.14%区间，与8月基本持平，新车和旧车价格小幅走强。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">住房通胀趋于稳定，保险拖累持续</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">住房分项延续平稳走势。巴克莱预测，9月业主等价租金（OER）环比上涨0.24%，主要居所租金上涨0.23%；摩根士丹利预测OER和主要居所租金分别为0.25%和0.20%。摩根士丹利指出，今年5月以来，住房通胀月均涨幅约0.24%，略低于疫情前0.26%的长期趋势，预计近期将在该水平附近波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车保险继续对核心通胀形成拖累。摩根士丹利预测，9月车险保费环比下降0.20%，并预期负增长态势将延续至2027年，主要原因是保险公司盈利状况改善，促使其通过降价争夺市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">酒店价格方面，8月在连续两个月异常走弱后强劲反弹，摩根士丹利预测9月将回归平盘（0%环比）。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">PCE通胀预测：料维持在3%附近</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPI数据对美联储更为关注的PCE通胀指标同样具有指引意义。<strong>巴克莱将9月核心PCE通胀预测为0.22%环比，同比约3.0%；摩根士丹利预测则略高，为0.23%环比。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱研究人员Pooja Sriram、Marc Giannoni、Jonathan Millar及Colin Johanson指出，金融服务PCE价格存在一定不确定性，尤其是美国经济分析局（BEA）采用新方法估算投资组合管理服务价格，所需的名义支出和工时数据可能无法及时获取，增加了预测难度。团队表示，将在下周CPI及PPI数据公布后进一步修正预测。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">美联储路径：10月按兵不动，12月加息25基点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从政策路径来看，巴克莱维持基准预测：美联储12月加息25个基点。该机构指出，受基数效应拖累，主席沃什偏好的6个月和12个月等中长期通胀指标今年内难以显著改善，但2027年前景将明显好转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期美联储官员的表态显示，通胀结果分布的不确定性或在风险管理层面支持进一步收紧，但巴克莱预计决策者将在10月选择观望，等待更多数据验证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得关注的是，摩根士丹利提醒，本次报告有几个关键变量需要密切跟踪：一是苹果9月9日发布新款iPhone时对部分旧款机型上调了10%至14%的价格，但由于智能手机在CPI篮子中权重仅约0.2%，且部分地区采样为双月频率，直接影响预计不超过1至1.4个基点；二是航空票价的进一步涨价空间是否已接近天花板；三是住房通胀能否维持当前稳定节奏。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"SHV":"Ishares Trust Trust Ishares 0-1 YEAR Treasury BOND ETF","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","HMOP":"Hartford Municipal Opportunities ETF","XLRI":"The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Premium Income Fund","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X 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LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","FEM":"First Trust Emerging Markets AlphaDEX Fund","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","OOQB":"One+One Bitcoin and Ether ETF","03599":"广发港美科技","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","EMPB":"Efficient Market Portfolio Plus ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","IBTK":"iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term Treasury ETF","RYSE":"Vest 10 Year Interest Rate Hedge ETF","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","VEXC":"Vanguard Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","IBII":"ISHARES IBONDS OCT 2032 TERM TIPS ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","XBIL":"US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3783267","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2674837763","content_text":"能源价格再度主导通胀走势，但核心压力边际趋缓，为美联储按兵不动提供支撑。美国劳工统计局将于10月14日（下周三）公布9月CPI数据。据追风交易台消息，据巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测，9月整体CPI将因汽油价格大幅走高而加速上行，但核心CPI环比涨幅料较8月小幅收窄，主要原因是无线通信服务价格涨势部分回落。两家机构均将核心CPI环比涨幅预测为0.24%，低于8月的0.29%。该数据将直接影响美联储10月议息会议决策。巴克莱研究认为，尽管近期通胀风险仍偏上行，美联储官员很可能在10月维持利率不变，继续观察后续数据，并将25个基点的加息路径推后至12月。美联储稍早前公布的9月会议纪要显示，“大多数”预计年内再加息一次，但暗示10月不急。美联储理事沃勒表示，加息无需在连续政策会议上进行，官员可以根据经济数据灵活把握时机。市场已将加息预期从10月推迟至12月，高盛认为，12月加息概率更大，但FOMC最终判断无需进一步紧缩的可能性同样相当大。能源拉动整体通胀，标题数据跳升巴克莱预测，9月整体CPI环比上涨0.58%（经季节性调整），同比升至3.7%，较8月的3.4%上行约0.3个百分点，不过仍低于今年5月4.2%的阶段性高点。摩根士丹利预测略高，同比涨幅为3.69%，环比为0.62%。能源是此次整体通胀跳升的核心驱动力。据巴克莱预测，能源分项环比涨幅高达5.05%，其中汽油价格环比大涨9.23%，同比涨幅达34.8%；取暖油同比更高达38.8%。摩根士丹利指出，中东局势持续紧张是推高油价的重要因素，并将进一步传导至航空票价和运输成本。巴克莱研究团队在此前报告中亦警示，柴油价格上涨正逐步向美国消费者端传导。核心通胀小幅放缓，无线通信回落是主因在整体通胀走高的同时，核心CPI压力略有缓和。巴克莱预测9月核心CPI环比上涨0.24%，同比2.5%；摩根士丹利预测一致，亦为0.24%，两者均较8月的0.29%下降5个基点。核心通胀放缓的主要动力来自\"教育与通信\"分项。8月，无线通信服务价格异常跳升，单月贡献核心CPI约0.1个百分点。巴克莱预计，Verizon最新一轮提价叠加AT&T计划涨价幅度收窄，该分项9月仍将对通胀形成拉动，但力度将明显小于上月。与此同时，航空票价和医疗服务价格依然是核心通胀的支撑项。摩根士丹利指出，8月航空票价已同比上涨23%，9月仍预测环比上涨1.8%；巴克莱则预测航空票价环比涨2.6%。摩根士丹利补充，喷气燃料价格同比涨幅接近90%，而燃油占航空公司运营成本约20%至30%，按此测算，航空公司对燃油成本上涨的价格转嫁或已接近完整。此外，医疗服务在8月走弱后，摩根士丹利预测9月将环比反弹0.55%。核心商品方面，巴克莱和摩根士丹利预测环比涨幅维持在0.13%至0.14%区间，与8月基本持平，新车和旧车价格小幅走强。住房通胀趋于稳定，保险拖累持续住房分项延续平稳走势。巴克莱预测，9月业主等价租金（OER）环比上涨0.24%，主要居所租金上涨0.23%；摩根士丹利预测OER和主要居所租金分别为0.25%和0.20%。摩根士丹利指出，今年5月以来，住房通胀月均涨幅约0.24%，略低于疫情前0.26%的长期趋势，预计近期将在该水平附近波动。汽车保险继续对核心通胀形成拖累。摩根士丹利预测，9月车险保费环比下降0.20%，并预期负增长态势将延续至2027年，主要原因是保险公司盈利状况改善，促使其通过降价争夺市场份额。酒店价格方面，8月在连续两个月异常走弱后强劲反弹，摩根士丹利预测9月将回归平盘（0%环比）。PCE通胀预测：料维持在3%附近CPI数据对美联储更为关注的PCE通胀指标同样具有指引意义。巴克莱将9月核心PCE通胀预测为0.22%环比，同比约3.0%；摩根士丹利预测则略高，为0.23%环比。巴克莱研究人员Pooja 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Johanson指出，金融服务PCE价格存在一定不确定性，尤其是美国经济分析局（BEA）采用新方法估算投资组合管理服务价格，所需的名义支出和工时数据可能无法及时获取，增加了预测难度。团队表示，将在下周CPI及PPI数据公布后进一步修正预测。美联储路径：10月按兵不动，12月加息25基点从政策路径来看，巴克莱维持基准预测：美联储12月加息25个基点。该机构指出，受基数效应拖累，主席沃什偏好的6个月和12个月等中长期通胀指标今年内难以显著改善，但2027年前景将明显好转。近期美联储官员的表态显示，通胀结果分布的不确定性或在风险管理层面支持进一步收紧，但巴克莱预计决策者将在10月选择观望，等待更多数据验证。值得关注的是，摩根士丹利提醒，本次报告有几个关键变量需要密切跟踪：一是苹果9月9日发布新款iPhone时对部分旧款机型上调了10%至14%的价格，但由于智能手机在CPI篮子中权重仅约0.2%，且部分地区采样为双月频率，直接影响预计不超过1至1.4个基点；二是航空票价的进一步涨价空间是否已接近天花板；三是住房通胀能否维持当前稳定节奏。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US6M.BOND":1.5,"EMPB":1.5,"XLRI":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"XBIL":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"SPDN":0.6,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"VGSH":1.5,"VOO":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"DMAX":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,".DJI":2,"SPYM":0.6,"MUB":1.5,"MUNX":1.5,"FEM":1.5,"UPRO":0.6,"IBII":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"SPYQ":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"SHV":1.5,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"TBIL":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"OOQB":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"MMAX":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"RYSE":1.5,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"HYG":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"IBTK":1.5,"HIBL":0.6,"VGIT":1.5,"HMOP":1.5,"SPYH":0.6,".IXIC":2,"GOVT":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,".SPX":2,"JULD":1.5,"DDM":0.6,"IEF":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"RAUS":1.5,"VEXC":1.5,"SH":0.6,"TLTW":1.5,"UDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"STIP":1.5,"LIBD":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"03599":1.5,"DXD":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"LIAJ":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":403210105512280,"gmtCreate":1739458073218,"gmtModify":1739458287547,"author":{"id":"4169435791132792","authorId":"4169435791132792","name":"百万美刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe3645a0b38dbd09a5345392904c86a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4169435791132792","authorIdStr":"4169435791132792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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