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Leisure and happiness
01:52
$黄金主连 2602(GCmain)$
Leisure and happiness
12-19
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-18
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-18
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-17
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-16
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-15
$黄金主连 2602(GCmain)$
Leisure and happiness
12-15
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-13
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-12
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-12
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-11
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-10
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-09
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-08
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-08
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-05
胡说八道
抱歉，原内容已删除
Leisure and happiness
12-04
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-03
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
Leisure and happiness
12-03
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
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","text":"$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509215165080488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":508600428499672,"gmtCreate":1765201446092,"gmtModify":1765201447499,"author":{"id":"4160815406881052","authorId":"4160815406881052","name":"Leisure and happiness","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b8215114146279a2c35877a8714991f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4160815406881052","idStr":"4160815406881052"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAUUSD.FOREX\">$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XAUUSD.FOREX\">$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> ","text":"$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/508600428499672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507460540018960,"gmtCreate":1764868718624,"gmtModify":1764868721371,"author":{"id":"4160815406881052","authorId":"4160815406881052","name":"Leisure and happiness","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b8215114146279a2c35877a8714991f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4160815406881052","idStr":"4160815406881052"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"胡说八道","listText":"胡说八道","text":"胡说八道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507460540018960","repostId":"1147673574","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147673574","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764808474,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147673574?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-04 08:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI叙事逻辑变了！美股真正的风险不是加息、衰退而是滞胀","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147673574","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"近期美股的涨跌几乎是被美联储牵着走。截至25日收盘，纳斯达克收复了20日的暴跌，但美股的分歧并没有消除。AI叙事逻辑变了AI是美股本轮行情的主线，而且主要由龙头科技股驱动——2025年年内，英伟达、微软和谷歌这三个科技龙头就贡献了纳斯达克指数一半以上的涨幅。但从宏观角度看，AI叙事逻辑的变化有利于AI成本下降、应用普及，对美股指数反而更有利。流动性是否宽松相比AI叙事，流动性松紧更能直接影响美股的短期涨跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb3a599e571fdd64a718b20a0fef6d04\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p>近期美股的涨跌几乎是被美联储牵着走。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">进入11月后，美联储官员密集放鹰，加之9月非农与通胀数据均强于预期，市场对美联储12月降息的押注明显降温，美股持续回调。尤其是20日晚间纳斯达克大跌了2.15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">直到21日晚，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示短期内存在降息空间，市场情绪随即反转，投资者将12月降息概率从约35%抬升至约70%，美股随之反弹，纳斯达克收涨0.88%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">24日开盘前，美联储理事沃勒再次呼吁支持12月先行降息、然后再逐会判断，推动美股高开。开盘不久，又传出中美高层通话的消息，市场乐观情绪进一步放大。其后公布的11月达拉斯联储制造业指数低于全部经济学家预期，令市场对12月降息的押注进一步升温，美股涨幅继续扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">25日凌晨，特朗普发帖称与中方通话“非常好”，并表示计划于明年4月份访华，市场风险偏好随之提升；不久后，“新美联储通讯社”发布文章称旧金山联储主席戴利支持降息。最终纳斯达克上涨了2.69%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至25日收盘，纳斯达克收复了20日的暴跌，但美股的分歧并没有消除。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">24日，大空头迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）突然在X上复出，上来就是一连串对AI泡沫的猛烈抨击。他不仅公开称“AI是下一个互联网泡沫”，还直接对英伟达下注做空，顺带做空Palantir（虽然随后承认已平仓，但情绪冲击依然存在）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">很显然，当前美股的多空分歧，主要集中在两个核心变量：AI叙事能否持续以及流动性是否继续宽松。在我们看来，<strong>这两个方向本身并不存在根本性问题。中期真正需要警惕的，是美国经济是否滑向“滞胀”，而其关键决定因素是看通胀的走向</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2044737598\">AI叙事逻辑变了</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI是美股本轮行情的主线，而且主要由龙头科技股驱动——2025年年内，英伟达、微软和谷歌这三个科技龙头就贡献了纳斯达克指数一半以上的涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中英伟达是最大的科技龙头，市值最高达到了5万亿美元，是因为它掌握了AI训练和推理的核心GPU技术，在高性能计算市场几乎垄断，形成了强大的技术护城河，叠加英伟达处在AI基础设施的最上游，能最先能感受到全球科技需求的冷暖。所以，它也被市场看作科技成长风向标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但近期以英伟达为主的英达链出现了不小幅度的回调，主要有两方面原因：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一是<strong>市场对AI泡沫化程度仍然有较大分歧和疑虑</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，英伟达等AI龙头的估值已远超传统基本面框架，但市场对其三位数增长能否持续存在分歧；同时，科技巨头的AI投入持续飙升，动辄数百亿美元，但真正可变现的商业模式仍不清晰，出现“投入大、回报慢”的错配。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，AI服务器与数据中心建设出现类似2000年光纤时代的“重复建设”苗头，供应链库存、租赁 GPU 价格开始松动，暗示需求可能并非线性增长。也就是说，资本支出爆表，盈利兑现滞后，估值高企，容易形成泡沫结构。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值和财务压力的角度来看，标普500的市盈率正处于历史高位，纳斯达克的整体估值水平也不低，部分AI龙头的前瞻市盈率处于几十倍甚至上百倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当前AI估值确实存在一定的泡沫化迹象，但距离像2000年科网泡沫那样的高点仍有一定的距离，以及这次并不是单纯的估值炒作，而是一场底层技术变革带来的产业革命</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前的泡沫更多集中在预期与估值上的阶段性过热，而不是商业模式完全无法落地。AI已在算力、数据中心、办公协作、内容生产、企业软件等多条产业链中形成真实需求，科技巨头也在通过大规模资本开支构建长期护城河，这与当年的“没有盈利、没有技术、只有概念”的科技互联网时代并不相同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以我们认为，尽管AI短期会有估值波动，但距离“泡沫破裂”的条件（需求骤停、融资链断裂、商业模式彻底失败）还很远。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二是<strong>英伟达“垄断级成长”叙事被打断，科技股出现分化</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期有一则报道，Meta正考虑2027年在其数据中心使用谷歌的张量处理单元（TPU），而非英伟达芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TPU（Tensor Processing Unit）是谷歌自研的AI专用加速器芯片，最新一代为2025年4月发布的第七代，代号Ironwood。它在显存容量上已追平英伟达的B200，在特定AI任务（推理/搜索）上实现了“降维打击”，但通用性仍不及GPU，TPU更偏定制化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，谷歌最新发布的Gemini 3模型市场反响也不错，华尔街见闻表示，这被认为在推理和编码能力上超越了OpenAI的ChatGPT，而这一模型正是使用TPU而非英伟达芯片训练的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然谷歌的TPU或Gemini生态无法完全取代英伟达在AI算力上的核心地位，但市场多了一个可靠选择，英伟达“一家独大”的叙事被削弱。英伟达的PEG、估值溢价随之下降，依赖英伟达算力的微软、Meta、亚马逊也陷入盘整，反之谷歌的股价一枝独秀。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但从宏观角度看，AI叙事逻辑的变化有利于AI成本下降、应用普及，对美股指数反而更有利。结构上看，科技股内部也会从单一龙头行情转向云厂商、软件、应用层共同受益的格局。</p><h2 id=\"id_2840863484\">流动性是否宽松</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>相比AI叙事，流动性松紧更能直接影响美股的短期涨跌</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是因为一旦流动性收紧，它会立刻体现在一连串的价格反应上：杠杆盘被迫去杠杆、科技股估值被压缩、ETF被赎回、量化资金被动卖出……正如近期美股的大跌，很大程度就归咎于流动性偏紧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而衡量全球流动性紧张程度的一个重要参考，就是<strong>美国10年期国债收益率，它可以看作全球真实流动性的“温度计”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利率是资金使用成本，利率越低意味着成本越低，市场上的钱就越多，流动性宽松；价格越高，成本越贵，市场上的钱越少 ，流动性就越紧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而决定10年期美债利率高低的核心力量是利率政策预期以及QE（量化宽松）/QT（量化紧缩）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场永远交易的是未来，而不是当下。当加息预期升温，长端收益率被推高，市场流动性就会收紧；当降息预期增强，长端收益率下行，流动性则会改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些预期又受到美国经济数据和通胀数据的主导，这是因为美联储肩负“稳定物价与充分就业”的双重使命。一旦通胀走高，美联储会选择紧缩货币政策压制通胀；而当就业或增长走弱时，美联储又必须重新释放宽松。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">复盘历史，美股大牛更容易出现在10年期美债收益率低，也就是流动性宽松的时候。这就是为什么一旦出现“12月不降息”这种鹰派信号，美股短线如临大敌。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8ca92314889a627f45595354951a1ec\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"693\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果说加息改变的是“资金成本”，那么QE/QT改变的则是“资金数量”。当美联储QE时，它会大量买入国债等资产，债券需求增加，债券价格上涨，长端收益率被压低（国债价格与收益率呈反向关系），流动性变得充裕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">QT则是美联储卖出国债等资产，相当于收回流动性，这会推高长期利率，放大市场的脆弱性。典型的案例发生在2017–2018年。为了压制高通胀，美联储从2017年10月启动QT，并在 2017–2018年期间连续加息8次，这使10年期美债收益率从约2.1%升至3.2%。在加息与QT的双重作用下，全球流动性明显收紧。最终在2018年四季度，标普500暴跌约20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是为什么市场对2024–2025年QT节奏极度敏感，因为缩表速度越快，越不利于流动性的释放。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以说，<strong>美股短期最害怕的不是AI叙事变化，而是美联储放鹰、10年美债收益率上行、12月不降息等这种“流动性收紧”的信号</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过我们认为流动性问题并不用过于担忧，美联储12月降息的可能性还是很大，毕竟美国就业数据并不好看，通胀压力虽然存在但没有失控（具体数据下文有阐述）。而且美联储已经决定自2025年12月1日起停止QT，意味着流动性不再被进一步抽紧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我们需要谨防的是12月美联储会议</strong>（11日凌晨公布会议结果）<strong>，可能会出现降息+偏鹰的信号，以及后续会有降息预期的波动，美股可能会出现震荡或者承压。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1682035504\">美股真正的危机</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>中期来看，美股真正的危机不是加息，也不是衰退而是滞胀</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果通胀失控，加息通常是短期现象，市场能消化并在预期转向时反弹；加息可能引发速度快的回调，但若通胀回落，降息与流动性回补会推动复苏。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">例如2022年，美联储快速加息并启动缩表导致流动性急速收紧，科技股、成长股遭遇沉重打击。幸运的是，随着通胀边际回落和市场对降息的预期逐步回升，市场随后触底回稳。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">衰退的破坏性可以很大，但也并不是最坏的情况，因为美国经济一旦陷入衰退，美联储有成熟的工具去刺激经济，如采取大幅降息或扩表以及QE、财政刺激（退税、基建、补贴）等。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">典型案例是2008年，金融体系危机引发深度衰退，但美联储与财政的大规模干预（降息+QE+财政救助）最终托住市场并开启长期牛市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>最致命的情况就是经济疲弱伴随高通胀，也就是滞胀。</strong>在这种情况下，美联储会处在两难境地，降息会助长通胀，继续加息则会进一步扼杀经济。既没有可行的“救市”手段，市场也没有“降息托底”的期待。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">典型的案例在1970年代，当时美国经历了典型的滞胀期，当时经济疲软、石油冲击频发，同时工资—物价螺旋上升，通胀水平持续在7%至13%之间，高通胀蚕食了名义收益（实际收益率=名义收益率-通胀率）。由于政策难以同时抑制高通胀并刺激经济增长，投资者在这一时期长期面临横盘甚至亏损的局面。尤其是在1973–1974年的两年里，标普500暴跌了约48%，经历了真正的股灾。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">整体而言，单纯的加息会引发美股短期调整，衰退通常会让市场先跌出风险，再靠政策把信心托回来，但滞胀会同时打击盈利与估值，并剥夺政策救市的有效工具，这对于股市而言才是真正的系统性危机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>那么什么样的状态才算“滞胀”？这个触发标准大约是核心CPI>5%且持续>6个月，同时失业率>6%且连续上升</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">看当下的数据，美国还没有步入这么严重的地步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2025年10月，美国核心CPI同比增长约3.1%，连续三个月>3%，虽然高于美联储2%的目标，但还没有失控；10月美国失业率为4.2%，连续3个月持平，略高于2025年初的4.0%~4.1%，新增就业7.3万（大幅低于预期），连续3个月低于10万，经济疲软但就业并没有出现大幅恶化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>通胀高但低于5%，失业率走高但低于6%，我们更愿意称这种状态为“类滞胀”</strong>。在这种状态下，美联储依然“左右为难”，这也是为什么美联储降息速度慢、说话谨慎。怕的不是经济短期下滑，而是怕通胀反弹导致长端利率再飙升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">回看历史，“类滞胀”环境下，美股也很难有大牛市。因为核心CPI大于3%，通胀黏性较高，美联储货币政策可操作的空间有限，也就是释放的流动性不会很充裕。但结构性行情明显，因为市场更多是靠盈利改善或结构性故事上涨，所以具有盈利确定性的科技龙头，以及受益于成本型通胀的能源、有色资源板块通常表现更强。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总而言之，<strong>美股短期的核心矛盾仍是流动性和AI情绪。目前来看，这两个方向都没有本质问题，只是容易在数据与预期之间反复震荡，市场也随之呈现拉锯</strong>。<strong>中期真正需要警惕的，是美国经济是否会滑向“滞胀”，那将同时挤压估值与盈利，成为美股最不愿面对的情形</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而<strong>决定美国是否进入“滞胀”的关键要看通胀</strong>。经济疲软固然重要，但如果通胀能快速回落，美联储就有政策空间去降息，经济也有机会软着陆。反之，即使经济放缓，如果通胀仍然顽固不退，美国滞胀就真正来了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以<strong>影响美股方向的中期因素是通胀，我们需要密切关注美国通胀的变化，尤其是核心CPI、PCE、服务类以及大宗商品价格等走势</strong>。如果这些指标大幅上行，美国通胀显著抬头，例如核心CPI连续环比≥0.4%，美联储货币政策很难维持宽松，美股则以防守为主；如果通胀保持温和趋势，美股则存在逢低布局的窗口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从更长期的维度来看，决定美股能否持续慢牛的关键还是要看美国国力</strong>，如美国在战略科技领域的领先是否扩大，还是被削弱？美元是否会出现结构性替代？以及美国债务是否持续恶化？这三项若同时钝化，企业盈利端则面临中枢下行的压力。这个时候，即使通胀在低位，投资者也该谨慎。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1571189977230","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI叙事逻辑变了！美股真正的风险不是加息、衰退而是滞胀</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI叙事逻辑变了！美股真正的风险不是加息、衰退而是滞胀\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-04 08:34 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Di4bu8YcDcFfqsJHQ-TUwQ><strong>虎嗅APP</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期美股的涨跌几乎是被美联储牵着走。进入11月后，美联储官员密集放鹰，加之9月非农与通胀数据均强于预期，市场对美联储12月降息的押注明显降温，美股持续回调。尤其是20日晚间纳斯达克大跌了2.15%。直到21日晚，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示短期内存在降息空间，市场情绪随即反转，投资者将12月降息概率从约35%抬升至约70%，美股随之反弹，纳斯达克收涨0.88%。24日开盘前，美联储理事沃勒再次呼吁支持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Di4bu8YcDcFfqsJHQ-TUwQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb3a599e571fdd64a718b20a0fef6d04","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Di4bu8YcDcFfqsJHQ-TUwQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147673574","content_text":"近期美股的涨跌几乎是被美联储牵着走。进入11月后，美联储官员密集放鹰，加之9月非农与通胀数据均强于预期，市场对美联储12月降息的押注明显降温，美股持续回调。尤其是20日晚间纳斯达克大跌了2.15%。直到21日晚，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示短期内存在降息空间，市场情绪随即反转，投资者将12月降息概率从约35%抬升至约70%，美股随之反弹，纳斯达克收涨0.88%。24日开盘前，美联储理事沃勒再次呼吁支持12月先行降息、然后再逐会判断，推动美股高开。开盘不久，又传出中美高层通话的消息，市场乐观情绪进一步放大。其后公布的11月达拉斯联储制造业指数低于全部经济学家预期，令市场对12月降息的押注进一步升温，美股涨幅继续扩大。25日凌晨，特朗普发帖称与中方通话“非常好”，并表示计划于明年4月份访华，市场风险偏好随之提升；不久后，“新美联储通讯社”发布文章称旧金山联储主席戴利支持降息。最终纳斯达克上涨了2.69%。截至25日收盘，纳斯达克收复了20日的暴跌，但美股的分歧并没有消除。24日，大空头迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）突然在X上复出，上来就是一连串对AI泡沫的猛烈抨击。他不仅公开称“AI是下一个互联网泡沫”，还直接对英伟达下注做空，顺带做空Palantir（虽然随后承认已平仓，但情绪冲击依然存在）。很显然，当前美股的多空分歧，主要集中在两个核心变量：AI叙事能否持续以及流动性是否继续宽松。在我们看来，这两个方向本身并不存在根本性问题。中期真正需要警惕的，是美国经济是否滑向“滞胀”，而其关键决定因素是看通胀的走向。AI叙事逻辑变了AI是美股本轮行情的主线，而且主要由龙头科技股驱动——2025年年内，英伟达、微软和谷歌这三个科技龙头就贡献了纳斯达克指数一半以上的涨幅。其中英伟达是最大的科技龙头，市值最高达到了5万亿美元，是因为它掌握了AI训练和推理的核心GPU技术，在高性能计算市场几乎垄断，形成了强大的技术护城河，叠加英伟达处在AI基础设施的最上游，能最先能感受到全球科技需求的冷暖。所以，它也被市场看作科技成长风向标。但近期以英伟达为主的英达链出现了不小幅度的回调，主要有两方面原因：一是市场对AI泡沫化程度仍然有较大分歧和疑虑。首先，英伟达等AI龙头的估值已远超传统基本面框架，但市场对其三位数增长能否持续存在分歧；同时，科技巨头的AI投入持续飙升，动辄数百亿美元，但真正可变现的商业模式仍不清晰，出现“投入大、回报慢”的错配。其次，AI服务器与数据中心建设出现类似2000年光纤时代的“重复建设”苗头，供应链库存、租赁 GPU 价格开始松动，暗示需求可能并非线性增长。也就是说，资本支出爆表，盈利兑现滞后，估值高企，容易形成泡沫结构。从估值和财务压力的角度来看，标普500的市盈率正处于历史高位，纳斯达克的整体估值水平也不低，部分AI龙头的前瞻市盈率处于几十倍甚至上百倍。当前AI估值确实存在一定的泡沫化迹象，但距离像2000年科网泡沫那样的高点仍有一定的距离，以及这次并不是单纯的估值炒作，而是一场底层技术变革带来的产业革命。当前的泡沫更多集中在预期与估值上的阶段性过热，而不是商业模式完全无法落地。AI已在算力、数据中心、办公协作、内容生产、企业软件等多条产业链中形成真实需求，科技巨头也在通过大规模资本开支构建长期护城河，这与当年的“没有盈利、没有技术、只有概念”的科技互联网时代并不相同。所以我们认为，尽管AI短期会有估值波动，但距离“泡沫破裂”的条件（需求骤停、融资链断裂、商业模式彻底失败）还很远。二是英伟达“垄断级成长”叙事被打断，科技股出现分化。近期有一则报道，Meta正考虑2027年在其数据中心使用谷歌的张量处理单元（TPU），而非英伟达芯片。TPU（Tensor Processing Unit）是谷歌自研的AI专用加速器芯片，最新一代为2025年4月发布的第七代，代号Ironwood。它在显存容量上已追平英伟达的B200，在特定AI任务（推理/搜索）上实现了“降维打击”，但通用性仍不及GPU，TPU更偏定制化。此外，谷歌最新发布的Gemini 3模型市场反响也不错，华尔街见闻表示，这被认为在推理和编码能力上超越了OpenAI的ChatGPT，而这一模型正是使用TPU而非英伟达芯片训练的。虽然谷歌的TPU或Gemini生态无法完全取代英伟达在AI算力上的核心地位，但市场多了一个可靠选择，英伟达“一家独大”的叙事被削弱。英伟达的PEG、估值溢价随之下降，依赖英伟达算力的微软、Meta、亚马逊也陷入盘整，反之谷歌的股价一枝独秀。但从宏观角度看，AI叙事逻辑的变化有利于AI成本下降、应用普及，对美股指数反而更有利。结构上看，科技股内部也会从单一龙头行情转向云厂商、软件、应用层共同受益的格局。流动性是否宽松相比AI叙事，流动性松紧更能直接影响美股的短期涨跌。这是因为一旦流动性收紧，它会立刻体现在一连串的价格反应上：杠杆盘被迫去杠杆、科技股估值被压缩、ETF被赎回、量化资金被动卖出……正如近期美股的大跌，很大程度就归咎于流动性偏紧。而衡量全球流动性紧张程度的一个重要参考，就是美国10年期国债收益率，它可以看作全球真实流动性的“温度计”。利率是资金使用成本，利率越低意味着成本越低，市场上的钱就越多，流动性宽松；价格越高，成本越贵，市场上的钱越少 ，流动性就越紧。而决定10年期美债利率高低的核心力量是利率政策预期以及QE（量化宽松）/QT（量化紧缩）。市场永远交易的是未来，而不是当下。当加息预期升温，长端收益率被推高，市场流动性就会收紧；当降息预期增强，长端收益率下行，流动性则会改善。这些预期又受到美国经济数据和通胀数据的主导，这是因为美联储肩负“稳定物价与充分就业”的双重使命。一旦通胀走高，美联储会选择紧缩货币政策压制通胀；而当就业或增长走弱时，美联储又必须重新释放宽松。复盘历史，美股大牛更容易出现在10年期美债收益率低，也就是流动性宽松的时候。这就是为什么一旦出现“12月不降息”这种鹰派信号，美股短线如临大敌。如果说加息改变的是“资金成本”，那么QE/QT改变的则是“资金数量”。当美联储QE时，它会大量买入国债等资产，债券需求增加，债券价格上涨，长端收益率被压低（国债价格与收益率呈反向关系），流动性变得充裕。QT则是美联储卖出国债等资产，相当于收回流动性，这会推高长期利率，放大市场的脆弱性。典型的案例发生在2017–2018年。为了压制高通胀，美联储从2017年10月启动QT，并在 2017–2018年期间连续加息8次，这使10年期美债收益率从约2.1%升至3.2%。在加息与QT的双重作用下，全球流动性明显收紧。最终在2018年四季度，标普500暴跌约20%。这就是为什么市场对2024–2025年QT节奏极度敏感，因为缩表速度越快，越不利于流动性的释放。所以说，美股短期最害怕的不是AI叙事变化，而是美联储放鹰、10年美债收益率上行、12月不降息等这种“流动性收紧”的信号。不过我们认为流动性问题并不用过于担忧，美联储12月降息的可能性还是很大，毕竟美国就业数据并不好看，通胀压力虽然存在但没有失控（具体数据下文有阐述）。而且美联储已经决定自2025年12月1日起停止QT，意味着流动性不再被进一步抽紧。我们需要谨防的是12月美联储会议（11日凌晨公布会议结果），可能会出现降息+偏鹰的信号，以及后续会有降息预期的波动，美股可能会出现震荡或者承压。美股真正的危机中期来看，美股真正的危机不是加息，也不是衰退而是滞胀。如果通胀失控，加息通常是短期现象，市场能消化并在预期转向时反弹；加息可能引发速度快的回调，但若通胀回落，降息与流动性回补会推动复苏。例如2022年，美联储快速加息并启动缩表导致流动性急速收紧，科技股、成长股遭遇沉重打击。幸运的是，随着通胀边际回落和市场对降息的预期逐步回升，市场随后触底回稳。衰退的破坏性可以很大，但也并不是最坏的情况，因为美国经济一旦陷入衰退，美联储有成熟的工具去刺激经济，如采取大幅降息或扩表以及QE、财政刺激（退税、基建、补贴）等。典型案例是2008年，金融体系危机引发深度衰退，但美联储与财政的大规模干预（降息+QE+财政救助）最终托住市场并开启长期牛市。最致命的情况就是经济疲弱伴随高通胀，也就是滞胀。在这种情况下，美联储会处在两难境地，降息会助长通胀，继续加息则会进一步扼杀经济。既没有可行的“救市”手段，市场也没有“降息托底”的期待。典型的案例在1970年代，当时美国经历了典型的滞胀期，当时经济疲软、石油冲击频发，同时工资—物价螺旋上升，通胀水平持续在7%至13%之间，高通胀蚕食了名义收益（实际收益率=名义收益率-通胀率）。由于政策难以同时抑制高通胀并刺激经济增长，投资者在这一时期长期面临横盘甚至亏损的局面。尤其是在1973–1974年的两年里，标普500暴跌了约48%，经历了真正的股灾。整体而言，单纯的加息会引发美股短期调整，衰退通常会让市场先跌出风险，再靠政策把信心托回来，但滞胀会同时打击盈利与估值，并剥夺政策救市的有效工具，这对于股市而言才是真正的系统性危机。那么什么样的状态才算“滞胀”？这个触发标准大约是核心CPI>5%且持续>6个月，同时失业率>6%且连续上升。看当下的数据，美国还没有步入这么严重的地步。2025年10月，美国核心CPI同比增长约3.1%，连续三个月>3%，虽然高于美联储2%的目标，但还没有失控；10月美国失业率为4.2%，连续3个月持平，略高于2025年初的4.0%~4.1%，新增就业7.3万（大幅低于预期），连续3个月低于10万，经济疲软但就业并没有出现大幅恶化。通胀高但低于5%，失业率走高但低于6%，我们更愿意称这种状态为“类滞胀”。在这种状态下，美联储依然“左右为难”，这也是为什么美联储降息速度慢、说话谨慎。怕的不是经济短期下滑，而是怕通胀反弹导致长端利率再飙升。回看历史，“类滞胀”环境下，美股也很难有大牛市。因为核心CPI大于3%，通胀黏性较高，美联储货币政策可操作的空间有限，也就是释放的流动性不会很充裕。但结构性行情明显，因为市场更多是靠盈利改善或结构性故事上涨，所以具有盈利确定性的科技龙头，以及受益于成本型通胀的能源、有色资源板块通常表现更强。总而言之，美股短期的核心矛盾仍是流动性和AI情绪。目前来看，这两个方向都没有本质问题，只是容易在数据与预期之间反复震荡，市场也随之呈现拉锯。中期真正需要警惕的，是美国经济是否会滑向“滞胀”，那将同时挤压估值与盈利，成为美股最不愿面对的情形。而决定美国是否进入“滞胀”的关键要看通胀。经济疲软固然重要，但如果通胀能快速回落，美联储就有政策空间去降息，经济也有机会软着陆。反之，即使经济放缓，如果通胀仍然顽固不退，美国滞胀就真正来了。所以影响美股方向的中期因素是通胀，我们需要密切关注美国通胀的变化，尤其是核心CPI、PCE、服务类以及大宗商品价格等走势。如果这些指标大幅上行，美国通胀显著抬头，例如核心CPI连续环比≥0.4%，美联储货币政策很难维持宽松，美股则以防守为主；如果通胀保持温和趋势，美股则存在逢低布局的窗口。从更长期的维度来看，决定美股能否持续慢牛的关键还是要看美国国力，如美国在战略科技领域的领先是否扩大，还是被削弱？美元是否会出现结构性替代？以及美国债务是否持续恶化？这三项若同时钝化，企业盈利端则面临中枢下行的压力。这个时候，即使通胀在低位，投资者也该谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":2,".DJI":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507312615215288,"gmtCreate":1764831700366,"gmtModify":1764831701721,"author":{"id":"4160815406881052","authorId":"4160815406881052","name":"Leisure 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