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心機之蛙

心機之蛙

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0勋章

07-14 21:45

天天都是说这个问题

甲骨文股价创14个月新低，债务与OpenAI交易执行风险引发担忧

07-14 20:44

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 今天又不跟半导体，跟软件，哪个版块跌你都跟

07-14 01:11

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 你是半导体还是云计算[流泪]

07-13 22:56

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 哎，顺便吧

07-11

$SK海力士-WI(SKHYV)$ 都没波动

07-11

$SK海力士-WI(SKHYV)$ 不买，存看戏

07-10

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 有打开都是绿的

07-09

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 大部分股价都起来了，这货只负责跌，不负责涨，何时止跌啊，就一个愁

07-07

看多倒是买啊，为什么一直跌，全是扯淡

终于结束9连跌！甲骨文过去22个交易日跌了18天

07-07

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 134都不知道能不能止跌

07-03

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 初生啊😯

07-03

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 看来今天140破定了

07-03

又绿了，真的只是反弹。

异动解读｜甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，创25年最差单周表现后延续超跌反弹

07-02

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 一首凉凉送给你

07-02

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 他又要绿了，哎

07-01

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 你去si吧你

07-01

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 软件股都涨疯了，你这是哎

07-01

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 我的自选里就你绿的，但我就只买了你

06-30

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 什么时候止跌？没完没了

06-27

那为什么微软也涨

“OpenAI推迟上市”之下：甲骨文、Nebius带头硬件股下跌，ServiceNow和Workday领衔软件股全线大涨

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a></span><span></span>公司股价周一跌至14个月以来最低点，投资者对其高债务水平及包括一项价值3000亿美元的OpenAI交易在内的重大项目的执行风险表示担忧，并导致其信用评级遭下调。</p>\n<p>　　甲骨文股价周一下跌逾6%，收于92美元下方，创下自2025年5月以来的最低水平。今年以来，该股已累计下跌约31%。</p>\n<p>　　周二盘前该股下跌约0.8%。</p>\n<p>　　市场担忧主要集中在两方面。首先，甲骨文正在推进一项与OpenAI的3000亿美元数据中心建设合作，这一大规模投资计划将显著增加公司的债务负担。其次，投资者对甲骨文能否有效执行如此大规模的基础设施扩张持怀疑态度。</p>\n<p>　　尽管甲骨文在云计算和AI基础设施领域持续投入，包括为OpenAI提供算力支持，但其面临的财务压力正在加剧。公司需在把握AI增长机遇与维持财务稳健之间保持平衡，而市场目前对此持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>　　就在上周，OpenAI重组为营利性公益企业，重组完成后OpenAI基金会持有OpenAI集团约26%的股权，估值约1300亿美元。作为OpenAI重要的算力合作伙伴，甲骨文的履约能力将直接影响这一AI巨头的发展节奏。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：张俊 SF065</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-14/doc-inihusyc8038960.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>甲骨文公司股价周一跌至14个月以来最低点，投资者对其高债务水平及包括一项价值3000亿美元的OpenAI交易在内的重大项目的执行风险表示担忧，并导致其信用评级遭下调。\n　　甲骨文股价周一下跌逾6%，收于92美元下方，创下自2025年5月以来的最低水平。今年以来，该股已累计下跌约31%。\n　　周二盘前该股下跌约0.8%。\n　　市场担忧主要集中在两方面。首先，甲骨文正在推进一项与OpenAI的3000...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-14/doc-inihusyc8038960.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-07-14/doc-inihusyc8038960.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2651784106","content_text":"甲骨文公司股价周一跌至14个月以来最低点，投资者对其高债务水平及包括一项价值3000亿美元的OpenAI交易在内的重大项目的执行风险表示担忧，并导致其信用评级遭下调。\n　　甲骨文股价周一下跌逾6%，收于92美元下方，创下自2025年5月以来的最低水平。今年以来，该股已累计下跌约31%。\n　　周二盘前该股下跌约0.8%。\n　　市场担忧主要集中在两方面。首先，甲骨文正在推进一项与OpenAI的3000亿美元数据中心建设合作，这一大规模投资计划将显著增加公司的债务负担。其次，投资者对甲骨文能否有效执行如此大规模的基础设施扩张持怀疑态度。\n　　尽管甲骨文在云计算和AI基础设施领域持续投入，包括为OpenAI提供算力支持，但其面临的财务压力正在加剧。公司需在把握AI增长机遇与维持财务稳健之间保持平衡，而市场目前对此持谨慎态度。\n　　就在上周，OpenAI重组为营利性公益企业，重组完成后OpenAI基金会持有OpenAI集团约26%的股权，估值约1300亿美元。作为OpenAI重要的算力合作伙伴，甲骨文的履约能力将直接影响这一AI巨头的发展节奏。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张俊 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哎，顺便吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585413318501488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576749494655505","authorId":"3576749494655505","name":"winds08","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a1aac7f018a9c03fa3e9e7f1f87df5c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3576749494655505","idStr":"3576749494655505"},"content":"这个股票要多熬一段时间，目前这种直线抛压是天天说债务压力大有一些恐慌；需要等着自己修复。如果不能修复那可能整体AI板块都会继续承压","text":"这个股票要多熬一段时间，目前这种直线抛压是天天说债务压力大有一些恐慌；需要等着自己修复。如果不能修复那可能整体AI板块都会继续承压","html":"这个股票要多熬一段时间，目前这种直线抛压是天天说债务压力大有一些恐慌；需要等着自己修复。如果不能修复那可能整体AI板块都会继续承压"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584387991945240,"gmtCreate":1783702946721,"gmtModify":1783702948590,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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不买，存看戏","text":"$SK海力士-WI(SKHYV)$ 不买，存看戏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584367180899304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584344673866056,"gmtCreate":1783693702885,"gmtModify":1783693704622,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 有打开都是绿的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 有打开都是绿的","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 有打开都是绿的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584344673866056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583688064962584,"gmtCreate":1783532066110,"gmtModify":1783532068059,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 大部分股价都起来了，这货只负责跌，不负责涨，何时止跌啊，就一个愁","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 大部分股价都起来了，这货只负责跌，不负责涨，何时止跌啊，就一个愁","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 大部分股价都起来了，这货只负责跌，不负责涨，何时止跌啊，就一个愁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583688064962584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583286662697336,"gmtCreate":1783435399719,"gmtModify":1783438256727,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"看多倒是买啊，为什么一直跌，全是扯淡","listText":"看多倒是买啊，为什么一直跌，全是扯淡","text":"看多倒是买啊，为什么一直跌，全是扯淡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583286662697336","repostId":"2649677661","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649677661","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783383938,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2649677661?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-07 08:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"终于结束9连跌！甲骨文过去22个交易日跌了18天","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649677661","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"甲骨文9连跌终止，但自历史高点已累跌56%，与软件板块整体反弹形成罕见背离。资本开支失控与债务膨胀被指为股价持续溃败的元凶。然而，华尔街看多情绪却攀至20年峰值——84%分析师给出买入评级，平均目标价隐含82%涨幅。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>甲骨文9连跌终止，但自历史高点已累跌56%，与软件板块整体反弹形成罕见背离。资本开支失控与债务膨胀被指为股价持续溃败的元凶。然而，华尔街看多情绪却攀至20年峰值——84%分析师给出买入评级，平均目标价隐含82%涨幅。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文股价在经历自2021年以来最长连跌后终于止血，但这场跌势的深度与持续性仍令市场侧目。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">隔夜甲骨文股价收涨2.49%，报143.76美元，终结此前长达9个交易日的连续下跌，创下自6月15日以来单日最大涨幅。盘中股价一度触及145.62美元，较前收盘价高出3.8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7056fd8f5cd01febe076ef60128c33c\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这次反弹难以掩盖更深层的颓势。自6月1日触及2026年收盘高点248.15美元以来，甲骨文在过去22个交易日中有18天录得下跌，累计跌幅达26.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>与此同时，华尔街分析师对该股的看多情绪却达到近20年来的峰值，平均目标价较当前股价隐含逾80%的上行空间，形成鲜明反差。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2293527603\">跌势之深：56%的距离与一场&#34;真正的暴跌&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此轮下跌的烈度在甲骨文近年历史上颇为罕见。9连跌期间，股价累计下挫24%，为2021年12月以来最长连跌纪录。若将时间窗口拉长，<strong>自2025年9月10日创下历史收盘高点324.33美元以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌56.2%；过去52周跌幅亦达38.1%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据巴伦周刊报道，更令市场关注的是，甲骨文此轮下跌恰与软件板块整体反弹形成背离。iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF在截至上周四的五个交易日内连续上涨，累计涨幅超过10%，而甲骨文却在同期逆势走低。这一背离表明，拖累甲骨文的并非行业系统性压力，而是公司层面的特定因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资本开支与债务问题是悬在甲骨文头顶的主要风险，也被普遍视为其股价持续跑输的重要原因。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，甲骨文需要外部融资来支撑其资本开支计划，并将&#34;融资挑战&#34;列为关键风险之一。公司不断扩张的支出规模与日益累积的债务，正是当前投资者最为关切的核心议题。</p><h2 id=\"id_1380471901\">分析师力挺：84%买入评级，目标价隐含82%涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管股价持续承压，华尔街对甲骨文的信心却处于历史高位。据FactSet数据，目前覆盖甲骨文的分析师中，<strong>84%给予买入评级——这一比例在过去20年中仅在2011年5月短暂被超越。分析师平均目标价为254.84美元，较上周四收盘价隐含约82%的上行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，瑞穗证券分析师Siti Panigrahi最为乐观，目标价高达320美元，甲骨文亦是瑞穗的重点推荐标的。Panigrahi在上周四的研报中表示，&#34;甲骨文横跨数据库、基础设施与应用层的端到端AI技术栈，使其成为AI普及浪潮中的核心长期受益者。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KeyBanc分析师上月亦上调了对甲骨文的盈利预测，<strong>理由是对运营费用增速将保持温和&#34;越来越有信心&#34;，</strong>并维持增持评级及300美元目标价，认为&#34;未来的上行空间正是来源于此&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI基础设施军备竞赛持续升温的背景下，甲骨文能否在维持财务纪律的同时兑现增长承诺，将是决定其股价能否向分析师目标价靠拢的关键变量。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>终于结束9连跌！甲骨文过去22个交易日跌了18天</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n终于结束9连跌！甲骨文过去22个交易日跌了18天\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-07 08:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>甲骨文9连跌终止，但自历史高点已累跌56%，与软件板块整体反弹形成罕见背离。资本开支失控与债务膨胀被指为股价持续溃败的元凶。然而，华尔街看多情绪却攀至20年峰值——84%分析师给出买入评级，平均目标价隐含82%涨幅。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">甲骨文股价在经历自2021年以来最长连跌后终于止血，但这场跌势的深度与持续性仍令市场侧目。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">隔夜甲骨文股价收涨2.49%，报143.76美元，终结此前长达9个交易日的连续下跌，创下自6月15日以来单日最大涨幅。盘中股价一度触及145.62美元，较前收盘价高出3.8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7056fd8f5cd01febe076ef60128c33c\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，这次反弹难以掩盖更深层的颓势。自6月1日触及2026年收盘高点248.15美元以来，甲骨文在过去22个交易日中有18天录得下跌，累计跌幅达26.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>与此同时，华尔街分析师对该股的看多情绪却达到近20年来的峰值，平均目标价较当前股价隐含逾80%的上行空间，形成鲜明反差。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2293527603\">跌势之深：56%的距离与一场&#34;真正的暴跌&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此轮下跌的烈度在甲骨文近年历史上颇为罕见。9连跌期间，股价累计下挫24%，为2021年12月以来最长连跌纪录。若将时间窗口拉长，<strong>自2025年9月10日创下历史收盘高点324.33美元以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌56.2%；过去52周跌幅亦达38.1%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据巴伦周刊报道，更令市场关注的是，甲骨文此轮下跌恰与软件板块整体反弹形成背离。iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF在截至上周四的五个交易日内连续上涨，累计涨幅超过10%，而甲骨文却在同期逆势走低。这一背离表明，拖累甲骨文的并非行业系统性压力，而是公司层面的特定因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>资本开支与债务问题是悬在甲骨文头顶的主要风险，也被普遍视为其股价持续跑输的重要原因。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，甲骨文需要外部融资来支撑其资本开支计划，并将&#34;融资挑战&#34;列为关键风险之一。公司不断扩张的支出规模与日益累积的债务，正是当前投资者最为关切的核心议题。</p><h2 id=\"id_1380471901\">分析师力挺：84%买入评级，目标价隐含82%涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管股价持续承压，华尔街对甲骨文的信心却处于历史高位。据FactSet数据，目前覆盖甲骨文的分析师中，<strong>84%给予买入评级——这一比例在过去20年中仅在2011年5月短暂被超越。分析师平均目标价为254.84美元，较上周四收盘价隐含约82%的上行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，瑞穗证券分析师Siti Panigrahi最为乐观，目标价高达320美元，甲骨文亦是瑞穗的重点推荐标的。Panigrahi在上周四的研报中表示，&#34;甲骨文横跨数据库、基础设施与应用层的端到端AI技术栈，使其成为AI普及浪潮中的核心长期受益者。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KeyBanc分析师上月亦上调了对甲骨文的盈利预测，<strong>理由是对运营费用增速将保持温和&#34;越来越有信心&#34;，</strong>并维持增持评级及300美元目标价，认为&#34;未来的上行空间正是来源于此&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在AI基础设施军备竞赛持续升温的背景下，甲骨文能否在维持财务纪律的同时兑现增长承诺，将是决定其股价能否向分析师目标价靠拢的关键变量。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) 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SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","IGV":"北美软件ETF-iShares","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776328","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2649677661","content_text":"甲骨文9连跌终止，但自历史高点已累跌56%，与软件板块整体反弹形成罕见背离。资本开支失控与债务膨胀被指为股价持续溃败的元凶。然而，华尔街看多情绪却攀至20年峰值——84%分析师给出买入评级，平均目标价隐含82%涨幅。甲骨文股价在经历自2021年以来最长连跌后终于止血，但这场跌势的深度与持续性仍令市场侧目。隔夜甲骨文股价收涨2.49%，报143.76美元，终结此前长达9个交易日的连续下跌，创下自6月15日以来单日最大涨幅。盘中股价一度触及145.62美元，较前收盘价高出3.8%。然而，这次反弹难以掩盖更深层的颓势。自6月1日触及2026年收盘高点248.15美元以来，甲骨文在过去22个交易日中有18天录得下跌，累计跌幅达26.2%。与此同时，华尔街分析师对该股的看多情绪却达到近20年来的峰值，平均目标价较当前股价隐含逾80%的上行空间，形成鲜明反差。跌势之深：56%的距离与一场\"真正的暴跌\"此轮下跌的烈度在甲骨文近年历史上颇为罕见。9连跌期间，股价累计下挫24%，为2021年12月以来最长连跌纪录。若将时间窗口拉长，自2025年9月10日创下历史收盘高点324.33美元以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌56.2%；过去52周跌幅亦达38.1%。据巴伦周刊报道，更令市场关注的是，甲骨文此轮下跌恰与软件板块整体反弹形成背离。iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF在截至上周四的五个交易日内连续上涨，累计涨幅超过10%，而甲骨文却在同期逆势走低。这一背离表明，拖累甲骨文的并非行业系统性压力，而是公司层面的特定因素。资本开支与债务问题是悬在甲骨文头顶的主要风险，也被普遍视为其股价持续跑输的重要原因。分析认为，甲骨文需要外部融资来支撑其资本开支计划，并将\"融资挑战\"列为关键风险之一。公司不断扩张的支出规模与日益累积的债务，正是当前投资者最为关切的核心议题。分析师力挺：84%买入评级，目标价隐含82%涨幅尽管股价持续承压，华尔街对甲骨文的信心却处于历史高位。据FactSet数据，目前覆盖甲骨文的分析师中，84%给予买入评级——这一比例在过去20年中仅在2011年5月短暂被超越。分析师平均目标价为254.84美元，较上周四收盘价隐含约82%的上行空间。其中，瑞穗证券分析师Siti Panigrahi最为乐观，目标价高达320美元，甲骨文亦是瑞穗的重点推荐标的。Panigrahi在上周四的研报中表示，\"甲骨文横跨数据库、基础设施与应用层的端到端AI技术栈，使其成为AI普及浪潮中的核心长期受益者。\"KeyBanc分析师上月亦上调了对甲骨文的盈利预测，理由是对运营费用增速将保持温和\"越来越有信心\"，并维持增持评级及300美元目标价，认为\"未来的上行空间正是来源于此\"。在AI基础设施军备竞赛持续升温的背景下，甲骨文能否在维持财务纪律的同时兑现增长承诺，将是决定其股价能否向分析师目标价靠拢的关键变量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCS":0.6,"ORCX":0.6,"TDIV":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"IGV":0.6,"ORCL":1.98,"ORCU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583288787280096,"gmtCreate":1783434588807,"gmtModify":1783434590798,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 134都不知道能不能止跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 134都不知道能不能止跌","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 134都不知道能不能止跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583288787280096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581552764686712,"gmtCreate":1783012084775,"gmtModify":1783012649366,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 初生啊😯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 初生啊😯","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 初生啊😯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581552764686712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581557484822720,"gmtCreate":1783011907024,"gmtModify":1783011908811,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 看来今天140破定了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 看来今天140破定了","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 看来今天140破定了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581557484822720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581536442390064,"gmtCreate":1783008181091,"gmtModify":1783008183149,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"又绿了，真的只是反弹。","listText":"又绿了，真的只是反弹。","text":"又绿了，真的只是反弹。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581536442390064","repostId":"1198049303","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198049303","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"行情直击","id":"1059448697","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a"},"pubTimestamp":1783001811,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198049303?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-02 22:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"异动解读｜甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，创25年最差单周表现后延续超跌反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198049303","media":"行情直击","summary":"7月2日，甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，报146.9美元/股，成交额10.72亿美元。消息面上，甲骨文此前一周累计暴跌19%，创2001年互联网泡沫以来最大单周跌幅，当前系统软件板块持续回暖为股价提供修复动力。公司目前背负约1300亿美元债务，计划筹集400亿美元支撑AI基建，同时裁员约2.1万人以压缩成本。目前71%的分析师建议买入该股，为近15年来最高比例。","content":"<p><p>7月2日，甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，报146.9美元/股，成交额10.72亿美元。消息面上，甲骨文此前一周累计暴跌19%，创2001年互联网泡沫以来最大单周跌幅，当前系统软件板块持续回暖为股价提供修复动力。</p><p>尽管公司最新披露AI数据中心投资风险——若OpenAI等核心客户无法支付账单或续约，昂贵算力资产可能面临闲置困境——但深度超跌后的技术性修复仍在延续。公司目前背负约1300亿美元债务，计划筹集400亿美元支撑AI基建，同时裁员约2.1万人以压缩成本。板块内CrowdStrike涨2.88%、NEBIUS涨2.15%、Palo Alto Networks涨1.08%，行业整体走强带动反弹。目前71%的分析师建议买入该股，为近15年来最高比例。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读｜甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，创25年最差单周表现后延续超跌反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读｜甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，创25年最差单周表现后延续超跌反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059448697\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-02 22:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p>7月2日，甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，报146.9美元/股，成交额10.72亿美元。消息面上，甲骨文此前一周累计暴跌19%，创2001年互联网泡沫以来最大单周跌幅，当前系统软件板块持续回暖为股价提供修复动力。</p><p>尽管公司最新披露AI数据中心投资风险——若OpenAI等核心客户无法支付账单或续约，昂贵算力资产可能面临闲置困境——但深度超跌后的技术性修复仍在延续。公司目前背负约1300亿美元债务，计划筹集400亿美元支撑AI基建，同时裁员约2.1万人以压缩成本。板块内CrowdStrike涨2.88%、NEBIUS涨2.15%、Palo Alto Networks涨1.08%，行业整体走强带动反弹。目前71%的分析师建议买入该股，为近15年来最高比例。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198049303","content_text":"7月2日，甲骨文盘中上涨3.09%，报146.9美元/股，成交额10.72亿美元。消息面上，甲骨文此前一周累计暴跌19%，创2001年互联网泡沫以来最大单周跌幅，当前系统软件板块持续回暖为股价提供修复动力。尽管公司最新披露AI数据中心投资风险——若OpenAI等核心客户无法支付账单或续约，昂贵算力资产可能面临闲置困境——但深度超跌后的技术性修复仍在延续。公司目前背负约1300亿美元债务，计划筹集400亿美元支撑AI基建，同时裁员约2.1万人以压缩成本。板块内CrowdStrike涨2.88%、NEBIUS涨2.15%、Palo Alto Networks涨1.08%，行业整体走强带动反弹。目前71%的分析师建议买入该股，为近15年来最高比例。（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581521452749888,"gmtCreate":1783004450038,"gmtModify":1783004452110,"author":{"id":"4152449096929562","authorId":"4152449096929562","name":"心機之蛙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0802e7428db8284a82acd6b5b2dd48f9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4152449096929562","idStr":"4152449096929562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 一首凉凉送给你","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 一首凉凉送给你","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 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软件股都涨疯了，你这是哎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581181468340496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472098980994884","authorId":"3472098980994884","name":"拒绝游泳的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52fff20daaba255185a5f3bd46574b0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3472098980994884","idStr":"3472098980994884"},"content":"今天他又化身跟着半导体跌 [流泪]","text":"今天他又化身跟着半导体跌 [流泪]","html":"今天他又化身跟着半导体跌 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 什么时候止跌？没完没了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$&nbsp;</a> 什么时候止跌？没完没了","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 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09:59","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"“OpenAI推迟上市”之下：甲骨文、Nebius带头硬件股下跌，ServiceNow和Workday领衔软件股全线大涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2646396411","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"OpenAI财务困境或推迟IPO，引发市场重估AI冲击预期。软件股ServiceNow、Workday涨逾9%，Figma涨超10%，昔日\"重灾区\"领涨。分析师指出，企业全面用AI替代软件的说法不切实际，最悲观时刻或已过去。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">OpenAI财务困境引发市场重估，软件股大涨芯片股承压。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，6月25日，《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>》报道OpenAI因财务压力可能推迟IPO计划，市场由此重新评估AI对传统软件企业的冲击程度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>软件板块周五迎来普涨行情，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>等一度被视为受AI威胁最大的软件股领涨，而与OpenAI深度绑定的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>则逆势下跌。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">RBC资本市场分析师Rishi Jaluria表示，尽管市场对软件行业的整体情绪仍然偏负面，但&#34;最悲观的时刻或许已经过去&#34;。他同时指出，&#34;企业将用AI全面替代现有软件解决方案&#34;的说法并不符合现实。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">软件股普涨，昔日&#34;重灾区&#34;领涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五涨幅最为突出的，正是此前被认为最易受AI冲击的软件企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ServiceNow和Workday股价均上涨逾9%，跻身当日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数涨幅最大个股之列。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad35c126d9c75623bcde08d69039d51e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"878\"/><span>（标普成分股涨幅前五）</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Figma和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a>分别收涨逾10%和8%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>各自上涨约5%；Atlassian涨幅亦超过5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cb822341796dc74b80050148405e62f0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1812\" tg-height=\"1190\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Raymond James分析师Adam Tindle指出，<strong>尽管单日股价波动难以精确归因，但周五涨幅最大的个股，恰恰是此前市场最为担忧会被AI蚕食的那批公司，ServiceNow和Atlassian均属此列。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">甲骨文逆势下跌，云基础设施业务成拖累</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与软件股普涨形成鲜明对比的是，甲骨文周五收跌约3%，成为板块内的明显异类。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Morningstar分析师Luke Yang表示，<strong>OpenAI IPO延迟的消息是影响甲骨文股价表现的主要因素。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Yang解释称，这一消息对软件应用侧属于&#34;利好&#34;，但对云基础设施侧则是&#34;利空&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">甲骨文与OpenAI之间签有规模高达3000亿美元的云计算合作协议，这使得甲骨文部分业务的前景与OpenAI的成败高度关联。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从甲骨文自身的业务结构来看，云计算的重要性已愈发突出。在2026财年，<strong>甲骨文</strong>云业务收入同比增长39%至340亿美元，而<strong>软件业务收入则小幅下滑1%至245亿美元。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">云基础设施企业承压，算力供应商面临预期下修风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>受OpenAI财务困境消息拖累，新兴云基础设施公司同样未能幸免。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">Nebius</a> Group周五双双下跌，两家公司股价分别收跌约2%和6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Luke Yang指出，两家公司均高度依赖AI基础设施需求。一旦市场对OpenAI增长前景的预期趋于保守，相关云算力供应商所受的负面影响将更为直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">荷兰资产（Dutch Asset）投资经理Eric Jhonsa在社交媒体上表示，市场目前对多数SaaS企业定价了大量长期终值风险，而对部分AI基础设施标的则几乎未计入长期风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他进一步指出，GLM 5.2等前沿大模型的进展、出口管制政策，以及企业转向更小、更廉价模型以压缩token成本的趋势，均表明AI算力资本支出在更长期限上同样面临不确定性。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值分化加剧，AI基础设施投资逻辑面临再校准</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次行情亦将AI相关标的内部的估值分化推至台前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Eric Jhonsa指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>目前以约20倍远期市盈率交易，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>约为23倍，而Marvell达58倍，Astera则高达116倍，后两者的股权激励占收益和自由现金流的比例亦更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>他认为，这种分化&#34;荒谬&#34;，存在明显的均值回归压力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，部分SaaS企业在持续保持两位数年化经常性收入和自由现金流增长的背景下，估值已压缩至10至15倍远期自由现金流（剔除股权激励），他认为这一水平提供了较好的安全边际。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在投资策略上</strong>，Eric Jhonsa表示，对于仅需资本支出在2028年前保持强劲增长（而非延续至2030年或更远）即可支撑估值的AI基础设施标的，他持建设性态度；而对于需要更长资本支出周期来验证估值的标的，则持谨慎乃至看空立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>他补充称，以15至20倍2028年预期每股收益买入AI基础设施标的，远比支付30倍以上更令他感到安心。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在宏观层面，Eric Jhonsa表示若下半年通胀再度走热，叠加美联储在政治压力下反应迟缓，长端利率或将大幅攀升。这将是当前科技股估值所面临的最大宏观威胁。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“OpenAI推迟上市”之下：甲骨文、Nebius带头硬件股下跌，ServiceNow和Workday领衔软件股全线大涨</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“OpenAI推迟上市”之下：甲骨文、Nebius带头硬件股下跌，ServiceNow和Workday领衔软件股全线大涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-27 09:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">OpenAI财务困境引发市场重估，软件股大涨芯片股承压。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，6月25日，《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>》报道OpenAI因财务压力可能推迟IPO计划，市场由此重新评估AI对传统软件企业的冲击程度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>软件板块周五迎来普涨行情，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>等一度被视为受AI威胁最大的软件股领涨，而与OpenAI深度绑定的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>则逆势下跌。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">RBC资本市场分析师Rishi Jaluria表示，尽管市场对软件行业的整体情绪仍然偏负面，但&#34;最悲观的时刻或许已经过去&#34;。他同时指出，&#34;企业将用AI全面替代现有软件解决方案&#34;的说法并不符合现实。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">软件股普涨，昔日&#34;重灾区&#34;领涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周五涨幅最为突出的，正是此前被认为最易受AI冲击的软件企业。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ServiceNow和Workday股价均上涨逾9%，跻身当日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数涨幅最大个股之列。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad35c126d9c75623bcde08d69039d51e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"878\"/><span>（标普成分股涨幅前五）</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Figma和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a>分别收涨逾10%和8%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>各自上涨约5%；Atlassian涨幅亦超过5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cb822341796dc74b80050148405e62f0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1812\" tg-height=\"1190\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Raymond James分析师Adam Tindle指出，<strong>尽管单日股价波动难以精确归因，但周五涨幅最大的个股，恰恰是此前市场最为担忧会被AI蚕食的那批公司，ServiceNow和Atlassian均属此列。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">甲骨文逆势下跌，云基础设施业务成拖累</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与软件股普涨形成鲜明对比的是，甲骨文周五收跌约3%，成为板块内的明显异类。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Morningstar分析师Luke Yang表示，<strong>OpenAI IPO延迟的消息是影响甲骨文股价表现的主要因素。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Yang解释称，这一消息对软件应用侧属于&#34;利好&#34;，但对云基础设施侧则是&#34;利空&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">甲骨文与OpenAI之间签有规模高达3000亿美元的云计算合作协议，这使得甲骨文部分业务的前景与OpenAI的成败高度关联。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从甲骨文自身的业务结构来看，云计算的重要性已愈发突出。在2026财年，<strong>甲骨文</strong>云业务收入同比增长39%至340亿美元，而<strong>软件业务收入则小幅下滑1%至245亿美元。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">云基础设施企业承压，算力供应商面临预期下修风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>受OpenAI财务困境消息拖累，新兴云基础设施公司同样未能幸免。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">Nebius</a> Group周五双双下跌，两家公司股价分别收跌约2%和6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Luke Yang指出，两家公司均高度依赖AI基础设施需求。一旦市场对OpenAI增长前景的预期趋于保守，相关云算力供应商所受的负面影响将更为直接。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">荷兰资产（Dutch Asset）投资经理Eric Jhonsa在社交媒体上表示，市场目前对多数SaaS企业定价了大量长期终值风险，而对部分AI基础设施标的则几乎未计入长期风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他进一步指出，GLM 5.2等前沿大模型的进展、出口管制政策，以及企业转向更小、更廉价模型以压缩token成本的趋势，均表明AI算力资本支出在更长期限上同样面临不确定性。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值分化加剧，AI基础设施投资逻辑面临再校准</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次行情亦将AI相关标的内部的估值分化推至台前。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Eric Jhonsa指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>目前以约20倍远期市盈率交易，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>约为23倍，而Marvell达58倍，Astera则高达116倍，后两者的股权激励占收益和自由现金流的比例亦更高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>他认为，这种分化&#34;荒谬&#34;，存在明显的均值回归压力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，部分SaaS企业在持续保持两位数年化经常性收入和自由现金流增长的背景下，估值已压缩至10至15倍远期自由现金流（剔除股权激励），他认为这一水平提供了较好的安全边际。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在投资策略上</strong>，Eric Jhonsa表示，对于仅需资本支出在2028年前保持强劲增长（而非延续至2030年或更远）即可支撑估值的AI基础设施标的，他持建设性态度；而对于需要更长资本支出周期来验证估值的标的，则持谨慎乃至看空立场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>他补充称，以15至20倍2028年预期每股收益买入AI基础设施标的，远比支付30倍以上更令他感到安心。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在宏观层面，Eric Jhonsa表示若下半年通胀再度走热，叠加美联储在政治压力下反应迟缓，长端利率或将大幅攀升。这将是当前科技股估值所面临的最大宏观威胁。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d72bca297f2d00c91eacc1d2b6750fb4","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","WDAY":"Workday","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NBIS":"NEBIUS","IGM":"iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF","ORCL":"甲骨文","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","NOWL":"2倍做多NOW ETF-GraniteShares","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2433249047.HKD":"THEMATICS META \"R/A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","NBIL":"GraniteShares 2x Long NBIS Daily 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Associates US Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775663","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2646396411","content_text":"OpenAI财务困境引发市场重估，软件股大涨芯片股承压。华尔街见闻提及，6月25日，《纽约时报》报道OpenAI因财务压力可能推迟IPO计划，市场由此重新评估AI对传统软件企业的冲击程度。软件板块周五迎来普涨行情，此前ServiceNow、Workday等一度被视为受AI威胁最大的软件股领涨，而与OpenAI深度绑定的甲骨文则逆势下跌。RBC资本市场分析师Rishi Jaluria表示，尽管市场对软件行业的整体情绪仍然偏负面，但\"最悲观的时刻或许已经过去\"。他同时指出，\"企业将用AI全面替代现有软件解决方案\"的说法并不符合现实。软件股普涨，昔日\"重灾区\"领涨周五涨幅最为突出的，正是此前被认为最易受AI冲击的软件企业。ServiceNow和Workday股价均上涨逾9%，跻身当日标普500指数涨幅最大个股之列。（标普成分股涨幅前五）Figma和Datadog分别收涨逾10%和8%；Adobe和Salesforce各自上涨约5%；Atlassian涨幅亦超过5%。Raymond James分析师Adam Tindle指出，尽管单日股价波动难以精确归因，但周五涨幅最大的个股，恰恰是此前市场最为担忧会被AI蚕食的那批公司，ServiceNow和Atlassian均属此列。甲骨文逆势下跌，云基础设施业务成拖累与软件股普涨形成鲜明对比的是，甲骨文周五收跌约3%，成为板块内的明显异类。Morningstar分析师Luke Yang表示，OpenAI 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