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2.5流物理学家miaxwell

2.5流物理学家miaxwell

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2.5流物理学家miaxwell

04-24 23:39

买阿里，他自己去用用淘宝有多难用，除了便宜，操作体验真的差。我一股都不会买阿里。

多软件、空芯片！“大空头”买入微软，做空英伟达

2.5流物理学家miaxwell

2024-07-12

没事台积电我永远血赚

2.5流物理学家miaxwell

2024-07-08

台积电不是挺猛吗我1/3仓的台积电都赚了一倍了

2.5流物理学家miaxwell

2024-07-30

$Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$ 向钱冲

2.5流物理学家miaxwell

2024-07-09

没错

2.5流物理学家miaxwell

2024-07-07

Replying to @交易wei生:btc 现在抄底吗？//@交易wei生:抄底btc

2.5流物理学家miaxwell

2024-06-19

英伟达去年500的时候，他们不就开始减持了吗？减持只是他们获利的方式，不拿出来永远只是数字

期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益

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Burry，正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股，一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票，并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>，进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时，他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权，显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置，呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑，对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外，4月10日，Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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07:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型，知名投资者Michael Burry，正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股，一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票，并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>，进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时，他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权，显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置，呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑，对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外，4月10日，Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"LU2077746001.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A2 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Burry，正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股，一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。\n据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他于周四买入微软股票，并同步增仓MSCI、PayPal和Adobe，进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。\n与此同时，他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权，以及英伟达和iShares半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权，显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。\n上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置，呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑，对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。\n另外，4月10日，Michael Burry买入京东和阿里巴巴股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVYY":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"MSFT":2,"NVDW":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SOXX":1.82,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDA":2,"MSFW":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332979083276320,"gmtCreate":1722319769785,"gmtModify":1722320334814,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SERV\">$Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$</a> &nbsp;向钱冲","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SERV\">$Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$</a> &nbsp;向钱冲","text":"$Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$ 向钱冲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd985e9fcf1b71acb36fe00e6e0488c","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332979083276320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326717725343784,"gmtCreate":1720766560009,"gmtModify":1720766562017,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没事台积电我永远血赚","listText":"没事台积电我永远血赚","text":"没事台积电我永远血赚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326717725343784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667707446439","authorId":"3527667707446439","name":"周小小88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9996b98cf4d1d2eac25d1802ef0f6acc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667707446439","idStr":"3527667707446439"},"content":"怎么个事？","text":"怎么个事？","html":"怎么个事？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325597789901016,"gmtCreate":1720493240052,"gmtModify":1720493242113,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没错","listText":"没错","text":"没错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325597789901016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325194833535032,"gmtCreate":1720422392567,"gmtModify":1720422394807,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"台积电不是挺猛吗 我1/3仓的台积电 都赚了一倍了","listText":"台积电不是挺猛吗 我1/3仓的台积电 都赚了一倍了","text":"台积电不是挺猛吗 我1/3仓的台积电 都赚了一倍了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325194833535032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324810606084240,"gmtCreate":1720328582631,"gmtModify":1720328588305,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:btc 现在抄底吗？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:抄底btc","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:btc 现在抄底吗？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:抄底btc","text":"Replying to @交易wei生:btc 现在抄底吗？//@交易wei生:抄底btc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324810606084240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318341955334240,"gmtCreate":1718758848301,"gmtModify":1718760861758,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"英伟达去年500的时候，他们不就开始减持了吗？ 减持只是他们获利的方式，不拿出来永远只是数字","listText":"英伟达去年500的时候，他们不就开始减持了吗？ 减持只是他们获利的方式，不拿出来永远只是数字","text":"英伟达去年500的时候，他们不就开始减持了吗？ 减持只是他们获利的方式，不拿出来永远只是数字","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318341955334240","repostId":"1173868444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173868444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1718692822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173868444?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-18 14:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173868444","media":"期权女巫","summary":"根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外  3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外看跌期权。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-18 14:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173868444","content_text":"英伟达 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。强劲的自由现金流利润率5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。‌$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  ‌这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% 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我一股都不会买阿里。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557110908535320","repostId":"2629864080","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2629864080","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776987504,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629864080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 07:38","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"多软件、空芯片！“大空头”买入微软，做空英伟达","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629864080","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"《大空头》原型投资人Michael Burry周四宣布建仓微软，增持Adobe、PayPal等软件股，同时买入纳指ETF及英伟达看跌期权做空科技大盘与半导体。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型，知名投资者Michael Burry，正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股，一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票，并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>，进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时，他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权，显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置，呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑，对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外，4月10日，Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>多软件、空芯片！“大空头”买入微软，做空英伟达</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n多软件、空芯片！“大空头”买入微软，做空英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-24 07:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型，知名投资者Michael Burry，正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股，一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露，他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票，并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>，进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时，他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权，显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置，呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑，对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外，4月10日，Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"LU2077746001.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A2 SGD-H","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1564329628.SGD":"Blackrock Dynamic 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向钱冲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd985e9fcf1b71acb36fe00e6e0488c","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332979083276320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325597789901016,"gmtCreate":1720493240052,"gmtModify":1720493242113,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没错","listText":"没错","text":"没错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325597789901016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324810606084240,"gmtCreate":1720328582631,"gmtModify":1720328588305,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:btc 现在抄底吗？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:抄底btc","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:btc 现在抄底吗？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435655686982177\">@交易wei生</a>:抄底btc","text":"Replying to @交易wei生:btc 现在抄底吗？//@交易wei生:抄底btc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324810606084240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318341955334240,"gmtCreate":1718758848301,"gmtModify":1718760861758,"author":{"id":"4128175852187242","authorId":"4128175852187242","name":"2.5流物理学家miaxwell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8b0d11c5df8c3afb8023e18fb0cbff9","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4128175852187242","idStr":"4128175852187242"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"英伟达去年500的时候，他们不就开始减持了吗？ 减持只是他们获利的方式，不拿出来永远只是数字","listText":"英伟达去年500的时候，他们不就开始减持了吗？ 减持只是他们获利的方式，不拿出来永远只是数字","text":"英伟达去年500的时候，他们不就开始减持了吗？ 减持只是他们获利的方式，不拿出来永远只是数字","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318341955334240","repostId":"1173868444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173868444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1718692822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173868444?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-18 14:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173868444","media":"期权女巫","summary":"根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外  3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外看跌期权。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Nvidia还能再升53%！卖出价外看跌期权获得不俗收益\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-18 14:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。</p><p>这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。</p><p>NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。</p><h3 id=\"id_1385842591\">强劲的自由现金流利润率</h3><p>5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。</p><p>但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。</p><p>例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。</p><p>此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。</p><p>所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。</p><p>这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。</p><h3 id=\"id_1152756337\">根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价</h3><p>这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。</p><p>因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。</p><p>这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。</p><p>分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2975518212\">卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权</h2><p>例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。</p><p>‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT\" title=\"$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  </a>‌</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51ed1c46f7831065a8de8af6b38794d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"3534\" tg-height=\"3330\"/></p><p>这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。</p><p>此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。</p><p>总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。</p><p><em>本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173868444","content_text":"英伟达 的股票在最近一段时间内有所上涨，但这裡仍然可能被低估。基于其强劲的自由现金流 (FCF) 和 FCF 利润率进行估值，NVDA 的股价可能值每股 200 美元，或高出目前价格的 53%。一种操作方法是卖出价外 (OTM) 看跌期权。这一估值假设Nvidia在未来一年内的FCF利润率至少为 53.5%，并且分析师的收入预测成真。本文将解释这是如何实现的。NVDA 股票在 6 月 17 日星期一早盘交易中为每股 131 美元。这是在公司上週实施10股拆1股的前瞻性拆股之后的价格。强劲的自由现金流利润率5月24日的Barchart文章以及6月5日的更新中描述了使用FCF利润率来评估Nvidia股票的方法。当时，使用这种方法，NVDA股票价值每股150美元。但自那时以来，分析师提高了他们的收入预测。市场似乎也越来越期待 2026 年 1 月的收入和 FCF 预测。因此，我决定修改我的估计。例如，Seeking Alpha 现在显示，2025年（即截至 2026 年 1 月的年度）的收入预估为 1573.8 亿美元，这比之前文章中显示的 1548.2 亿美元有所上调。此外，上一季度公司在 260 亿美元收入中实现了 149 亿美元的 FCF。这意味著其 FCF 利润率达到了惊人的 57.35%，如我在 5 月 24 日的文章中所示。这比其前一季度的 50.75% FCF 利润率和过去 12 个月（TTM）49.3% 的 FCF 利润率都有所提高。所以，如果 Nvidia 在接下来的12个月内（NTM）至少达到 53.5% 的 FCF 利润率，我们可以推算其 NTM 的 FCF。这假设收入平均至少为 1386.9 亿美元（即 2025 年 1 月估计的 1200 亿美元和 2026 年 1 月收入预估 1573.8 亿美元的平均值）。因此，将0.535乘以1386.9亿美元，得到NTM的FCF预估为742亿美元。这比 TTM的393亿美元高出88.8%。换句话说，FCF将大幅增长。根据 FCF 预估的 NVDA 股票目标价这意味著使用 FCF 收益率指标，Nvidia可能价值显著提高。例如，如果市场将股票的股息收益率定为 1.5%，假设其支付出100%的 FCF，那麽我们可以推算其市值。因此，如果我们将 NTM 的 FCF 预估 742 亿美元除以 1.5%，我们得到的市值预估为将近 5 万亿美元。例如，742 亿美元除以 0.015 等于 4947 亿美元，或 4.947 万亿美元。这比星期一 Nvidia 的 3.22 万亿美元市值高出 53.6%。换句话说，NVDA 股票价值应高出约 53%，或每股约 200 美元。分析师们正在提高他们的估值。例如，AnaChart.com，一个新的卖方分析师追踪服务显示，39 位分析师的平均估值现在为每股 234.45 美元。卖空价外 (OTM) 看跌期权例如，看看 7 月 12 日的到期日，距今 24 天。显示 127 美元行权价的看跌期权，这是价外 (OTM) 3.03%，其价格为 4.13 美元。‌$NVDA 20240712 127.0 PUT$  ‌这也意味著卖空者拥有良好的下行保护。例如，即使股票在7月12日或之前跌至127美元，投资者的盈亏平衡点是127美元减去4.13美元，即每股122.87美元。这比今天的价格还低。此外，如果投资者能在接下来的三个月内重複进行这笔交易，这样，他们可以在每次卖出的看跌期权到期而变成无价值时，享受股票的所有上涨潜力。换句话说，他们每次都可以保留所有的看跌期权收益以及NVDA股票的上涨空间。总之，NVDA的价值远超现价。对于现有股东来说，一种获利的方法是在临近的到期期间内卖空价外（OTM）看跌期权。本文編譯自Barchart，原文標題：Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth $200 Per Share Based on Its FCF, +53% More","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}