利弗莫尔1929的个人主页 - 老虎社区

利弗莫尔1929

利弗莫尔1929

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利弗莫尔1929

2023-02-18

每次遇到问题，解决问题都要伤害经济，这是最直接也是最有效的办法！

抱歉，原内容已删除

利弗莫尔1929

2022-10-04

美国金融市场的利空消化能力是真的强悍！

抱歉，原内容已删除

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-04

$标普500(.SPX)$4178突破一下！加油！！！通胀很快到2%了，马上停止加息了！然后就是降息！美联储夸大了通胀！

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-04

$标普500(.SPX)$4190

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-04

$标普500(.SPX)$单纯看多！！！无脑看多！今晚看4190！加油！！！

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-03

$标普500(.SPX)$突破4140上涨到4160

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-03

$标普500(.SPX)$上4160

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-02

$标普500(.SPX)$还特么想反弹？下来吧！3800才是你的归途！加油！！！

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-01

$标普500(.SPX)$废了！估计4064左右！甚至更低！！！加息后遗症终于出来了！加油！

利弗莫尔1929

2022-08-01

$S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF(SPXU)$今晚开始赚钱！毋庸置疑，标普500已见顶！！！

利弗莫尔1929

2022-07-29

$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$暴涨！暴涨啊！恐慌啊！恐慌！！！

利弗莫尔1929

2022-07-26

$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$我觉得会上30，美联储很有可能加息100个基点！为什么这么说呢！因为欧洲央行也出人意料的多加息了25个基点！大家都是为了更好的抵御通胀！所以，恐慌情绪拉满！美股暴跌是必然的！各位大宗商品也一定是暴跌！加密货币更是会跌的一塌糊涂！个人意见！勿喷！！！谢谢。

利弗莫尔1929

2022-07-23

$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$单纯看空！

利弗莫尔1929

2022-07-19

$Sea Ltd(SE)$单纯看空

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a>暴涨！暴涨啊！恐慌啊！恐慌！！！","text":"$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$暴涨！暴涨啊！恐慌啊！恐慌！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":84,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":6,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682438575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3552132070985856","authorId":"3552132070985856","name":"环游世界一公里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e299f3cbaf4183c0e6e6ef442bb3222e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我感觉快了，美指开始涨了","text":"我感觉快了，美指开始涨了","html":"我感觉快了，美指开始涨了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685646509,"gmtCreate":1659623315106,"gmtModify":1659623350904,"author":{"id":"4120438411084530","authorId":"4120438411084530","name":"利弗莫尔1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66053efc3c4565a9623a00e495bccc4d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>4178突破一下！加油！！！通胀很快到2%了，马上停止加息了！然后就是降息！美联储夸大了通胀！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>4178突破一下！加油！！！通胀很快到2%了，马上停止加息了！然后就是降息！美联储夸大了通胀！","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$4178突破一下！加油！！！通胀很快到2%了，马上停止加息了！然后就是降息！美联储夸大了通胀！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685646509","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685657617,"gmtCreate":1659620907642,"gmtModify":1659620907642,"author":{"id":"4120438411084530","authorId":"4120438411084530","name":"利弗莫尔1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66053efc3c4565a9623a00e495bccc4d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><v-v 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Ltd(SE)$单纯看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686824409","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625443083,"gmtCreate":1676684425742,"gmtModify":1676684427952,"author":{"id":"4120438411084530","authorId":"4120438411084530","name":"利弗莫尔1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66053efc3c4565a9623a00e495bccc4d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每次遇到问题，解决问题都要伤害经济，这是最直接也是最有效的办法！","listText":"每次遇到问题，解决问题都要伤害经济，这是最直接也是最有效的办法！","text":"每次遇到问题，解决问题都要伤害经济，这是最直接也是最有效的办法！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625443083","repostId":"2312208299","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668225163,"gmtCreate":1664836224952,"gmtModify":1664836227914,"author":{"id":"4120438411084530","authorId":"4120438411084530","name":"利弗莫尔1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66053efc3c4565a9623a00e495bccc4d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国金融市场的利空消化能力是真的强悍！","listText":"美国金融市场的利空消化能力是真的强悍！","text":"美国金融市场的利空消化能力是真的强悍！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668225163","repostId":"2272015020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2272015020","pubTimestamp":1664823573,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2272015020?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-04 02:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"今年最大降幅！美债收益率狂泻 市场自己“降了一次息” 发生了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272015020","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"远逊预期的9月美国ISM制造业指数、信贷市场的疲软，以及瑞信危机，都增加了美联储被迫调整政策的可能性。目前交易者下调对联储收紧货币的预期，并再次押注联储最快明年5月降息。","content":"<html><body><p>美东时间10月3日周一，美股高开高走，三大股指午盘涨幅都扩大到2%以上，同时美债债券价格大反弹、收益率狂泻。</p>\n<p>基准10年期美国国债收益率在周一美股早盘曾下测3.57%，较亚市早盘3.80%上方的日内高位回落26个基点，这是今年以来首次日内降幅达26个基点，也是过去十年中第二次如此大幅下降。</p>\n<p>媒体认为，美股和美债价格反弹部分源于周一公布的美国制造业先行指标意外逊色，9月美国ISM制造业指数远低于预期，超预期下降至50.9，接近制造业活动停滞的荣枯分水岭50，创逾两年新低。此外，信贷市场疲的疲软，以及被投机者押注遭遇雷曼式危机的瑞信，都增加了美联储最终不得不在动荡中调整政策的可能性。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻注意到，正是在美股早盘时段公布美国ISM数据后，10年期美债收益率才降至9月22日以来最低点，回吐美联储上月第三次激进加息75个基点后的所有升幅。</p>\n<p>目前交易者已下调对美联储收紧政策的预期，并再次押注，美联储最快会在明年5月降息。</p>\n<p>彭博的全球利率隐含概率（WIRP）显示，本周一市场预期美联储的终端利率为4.38%，较上周五预期的4.52%下降14个基点，上上周三美联储会议宣布加息75个基点后不久，这一市场预期利率曾达到4.7%的高位，相当于本周一较一周多以前的高位下降32个基点。</p>\n<p>上述隐含利率从今年5月起呈现下行趋势，这表明，投资者预计，经济放缓将促使美联储改变政策。</p>\n<p>不过，媒体认为，这些押注美联储明年降息的投资者可能失望。在标普500指数经历了二十年来表现最差的9月后，美股会迎来姗姗来迟的反弹，并可能持续反弹，但今年市场对抗与美联储的策略一直没有真正奏效。</p>\n<p>投资者可能会从上周美联储官员的表态中获得线索，他们的言论和迄今为止的美联储鹰派共识预期略有不同。虽然本周联储官员的讲话可能会增加谨慎的态度，但应该很难看出偏离联储坚决抑制通胀这个共识，在联储青睐的通胀衡量指标还处于近四年来最高水平时，尤其如此。</p>\n<p>上周五公布的美联储青睐指标——核心PCE价格指数8月同比增长4.9%，较7月和市场预期的4.7%更快增长，不过，数据公布后，就有市场人士发出了开始买入美股的呼声。</p>\n<p>上周五，Leuthold Group的首席投资策略师Jim Paulsen在访谈中表示，由于通胀已经见顶，美联储的货币紧缩可能接近尾声，而从过往经历看，紧缩尾声一直是买入股票的好时机。</p>\n<p>Palusen指出了多个已经产生货币收缩效应的因素，包括货币和财政增长放缓、美元走强和债券收益率上升，认为这些因素是他预计明年通胀放缓的原因。</p>\n<p>虽然美联储官员自称致力于将通胀率降至 2% 的目标，但Palusen认为，他们已接近达到目标。</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“我不知道美联储是否必须再做任何事情。我认为（他们）可能已经打赢了通胀的战争，只是我们还不知道。从历史上看，通胀峰值一直是买入股市的好时机。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Palusen指出，目前标普500 指数的估值处于相对较低的水平，投资者情绪非常悲观，这是逆向投资者通常视为对股市有利局面。</p>\n<p>他提到债券收益率上升、大宗商品价格下跌以及房贷利率变得越来越难以承受，认为整个经济中闪烁的悲观信号表明美联储过度紧缩。</p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>\n<div>\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          </div>\n</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今年最大降幅！美债收益率狂泻 市场自己“降了一次息” 发生了什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今年最大降幅！美债收益率狂泻 市场自己“降了一次息” 发生了什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 02:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671732><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美东时间10月3日周一，美股高开高走，三大股指午盘涨幅都扩大到2%以上，同时美债债券价格大反弹、收益率狂泻。\n基准10年期美国国债收益率在周一美股早盘曾下测3.57%，较亚市早盘3.80%上方的日内高位回落26个基点，这是今年以来首次日内降幅达26个基点，也是过去十年中第二次如此大幅下降。\n媒体认为，美股和美债价格反弹部分源于周一公布的美国制造业先行指标意外逊色，9月美国ISM制造业指数远低于预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671732\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3abc8d75-a325-46b7-b038-9141cbfa551a.jpg?imageView2/1/w/340/h/340","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671732","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272015020","content_text":"美东时间10月3日周一，美股高开高走，三大股指午盘涨幅都扩大到2%以上，同时美债债券价格大反弹、收益率狂泻。\n基准10年期美国国债收益率在周一美股早盘曾下测3.57%，较亚市早盘3.80%上方的日内高位回落26个基点，这是今年以来首次日内降幅达26个基点，也是过去十年中第二次如此大幅下降。\n媒体认为，美股和美债价格反弹部分源于周一公布的美国制造业先行指标意外逊色，9月美国ISM制造业指数远低于预期，超预期下降至50.9，接近制造业活动停滞的荣枯分水岭50，创逾两年新低。此外，信贷市场疲的疲软，以及被投机者押注遭遇雷曼式危机的瑞信，都增加了美联储最终不得不在动荡中调整政策的可能性。\n华尔街见闻注意到，正是在美股早盘时段公布美国ISM数据后，10年期美债收益率才降至9月22日以来最低点，回吐美联储上月第三次激进加息75个基点后的所有升幅。\n目前交易者已下调对美联储收紧政策的预期，并再次押注，美联储最快会在明年5月降息。\n彭博的全球利率隐含概率（WIRP）显示，本周一市场预期美联储的终端利率为4.38%，较上周五预期的4.52%下降14个基点，上上周三美联储会议宣布加息75个基点后不久，这一市场预期利率曾达到4.7%的高位，相当于本周一较一周多以前的高位下降32个基点。\n上述隐含利率从今年5月起呈现下行趋势，这表明，投资者预计，经济放缓将促使美联储改变政策。\n不过，媒体认为，这些押注美联储明年降息的投资者可能失望。在标普500指数经历了二十年来表现最差的9月后，美股会迎来姗姗来迟的反弹，并可能持续反弹，但今年市场对抗与美联储的策略一直没有真正奏效。\n投资者可能会从上周美联储官员的表态中获得线索，他们的言论和迄今为止的美联储鹰派共识预期略有不同。虽然本周联储官员的讲话可能会增加谨慎的态度，但应该很难看出偏离联储坚决抑制通胀这个共识，在联储青睐的通胀衡量指标还处于近四年来最高水平时，尤其如此。\n上周五公布的美联储青睐指标——核心PCE价格指数8月同比增长4.9%，较7月和市场预期的4.7%更快增长，不过，数据公布后，就有市场人士发出了开始买入美股的呼声。\n上周五，Leuthold Group的首席投资策略师Jim Paulsen在访谈中表示，由于通胀已经见顶，美联储的货币紧缩可能接近尾声，而从过往经历看，紧缩尾声一直是买入股票的好时机。\nPalusen指出了多个已经产生货币收缩效应的因素，包括货币和财政增长放缓、美元走强和债券收益率上升，认为这些因素是他预计明年通胀放缓的原因。\n虽然美联储官员自称致力于将通胀率降至 2% 的目标，但Palusen认为，他们已接近达到目标。\n\n“我不知道美联储是否必须再做任何事情。我认为（他们）可能已经打赢了通胀的战争，只是我们还不知道。从历史上看，通胀峰值一直是买入股市的好时机。”\n\nPalusen指出，目前标普500 指数的估值处于相对较低的水平，投资者情绪非常悲观，这是逆向投资者通常视为对股市有利局面。\n他提到债券收益率上升、大宗商品价格下跌以及房贷利率变得越来越难以承受，认为整个经济中闪烁的悲观信号表明美联储过度紧缩。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685650322,"gmtCreate":1659617189269,"gmtModify":1659618071620,"author":{"id":"4120438411084530","authorId":"4120438411084530","name":"利弗莫尔1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66053efc3c4565a9623a00e495bccc4d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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