鲸吞2030的个人主页 - 老虎社区

鲸吞2030

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02:00

$INTC 20251205 42.0 PUT$

12-02

今晚

12-02

$MSTR 20251205 180.0 CALL$

12-02

$SPY 20251201 683.0 CALL$

11-28

$CRCL 20251128 78.0 CALL$ 10倍

11-28

今晚翻倍

11-28

$GOOG 20251128 322.5 PUT$

11-27

$MIU.HK 20251230 46.00 CALL$

11-27

$CRCL 20251128 78.0 CALL$

11-26

$GOOG 20251128 340.0 CALL$

11-26

$GOOG 20251128 310.0 PUT$

11-25

$MIU.HK 20251230 46.00 CALL$

11-21

就这么点

11-21

太牛逼了

11-21

$SPY 20251120 670.0 PUT$

11-19

$SPY 20251118 661.0 CALL$

11-18

$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 最好是盘前跌一跌

11-15

股价天天跌

财报前瞻 | 小米Q3营收预增28%，电动车有望实现盈利，智能手机与IoT面临压力

11-06

$SPY 20251105 681.0 CALL$

10-20

$ADM 20251031 63.0 CALL$

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251201 683.0 CALL\">$SPY 20251201 683.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251201 683.0 CALL\">$SPY 20251201 683.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20251201 683.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f0bd7286be1e282930a977639fbe84","width":"978","height":"1877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506171030196704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":505136095785024,"gmtCreate":1764343163610,"gmtModify":1764343166696,"author":{"id":"4118205146243860","authorId":"4118205146243860","name":"鲸吞2030","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118205146243860","idStr":"4118205146243860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRCL 20251128 78.0 CALL\">$CRCL 20251128 78.0 CALL$ </a> 10倍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRCL 20251128 78.0 CALL\">$CRCL 20251128 78.0 CALL$ </a> 10倍","text":"$CRCL 20251128 78.0 CALL$ 10倍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0be3ba05f2f1a938e6a08cab70efce","width":"978","height":"1877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505136095785024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4122170526769150","authorId":"4122170526769150","name":"佑齐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a752d961c7babd8abd6ea008e60f9a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4122170526769150","idStr":"4122170526769150"},"content":"敢玩末日你也是个狠角色[抱拳]","text":"敢玩末日你也是个狠角色[抱拳]","html":"敢玩末日你也是个狠角色[抱拳]"},{"author":{"id":"4204676077602360","authorId":"4204676077602360","name":"路很长向前看","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1a5e43e666bd01d92b4b35ffa4b944","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4204676077602360","idStr":"4204676077602360"},"content":"还是期权刺激[捂脸]","text":"还是期权刺激[捂脸]","html":"还是期权刺激[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505130660036968,"gmtCreate":1764341666124,"gmtModify":1764341678983,"author":{"id":"4118205146243860","authorId":"4118205146243860","name":"鲸吞2030","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118205146243860","idStr":"4118205146243860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"今晚翻倍","listText":"今晚翻倍","text":"今晚翻倍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db71c47efea6bdec50f03f4ce1718769","width":"978","height":"1877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505130660036968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505130631057680,"gmtCreate":1764341373407,"gmtModify":1764341388875,"author":{"id":"4118205146243860","authorId":"4118205146243860","name":"鲸吞2030","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118205146243860","idStr":"4118205146243860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251120 670.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251120 670.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251120 670.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251120 670.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20251120 670.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff7854a946e84b77e82ec597b4ffeb9","width":"978","height":"1877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502322281206008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":501654733390176,"gmtCreate":1763482450353,"gmtModify":1763482452786,"author":{"id":"4118205146243860","authorId":"4118205146243860","name":"鲸吞2030","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118205146243860","idStr":"4118205146243860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251118 661.0 CALL\">$SPY 20251118 661.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251118 661.0 CALL\">$SPY 20251118 661.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20251118 661.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ba7e6c38a5b56163e7e76f89588e6d","width":"978","height":"1877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501654733390176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":501566012494152,"gmtCreate":1763460383082,"gmtModify":1763460385035,"author":{"id":"4118205146243860","authorId":"4118205146243860","name":"鲸吞2030","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118205146243860","idStr":"4118205146243860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$&nbsp;</a> 最好是盘前跌一跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$&nbsp;</a> 最好是盘前跌一跌","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 最好是盘前跌一跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501566012494152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500431050240672,"gmtCreate":1763216049953,"gmtModify":1763216052318,"author":{"id":"4118205146243860","authorId":"4118205146243860","name":"鲸吞2030","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118205146243860","idStr":"4118205146243860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"股价天天跌","listText":"股价天天跌","text":"股价天天跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500431050240672","repostId":"1117325495","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117325495","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1762847656,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117325495?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-11 15:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 小米Q3营收预增28%，电动车有望实现盈利，智能手机与IoT面临压力","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117325495","media":"财报Agent","summary":"每股收益预计为0.39元，同比增长75%。电动车业务方面，随着交付量的持续增长，小米汽车有望首次盈利。华泰证券预计，第三季度智能手机收入可能小幅下滑约1%。花旗预计小米第三季度的电动车营收将实现盈利，但手机业务毛利率及IoT收入增速未达预期。电动车业务的盈利突破可能成为亮点，推动整体业绩增长，而智能手机业务和物联网业务则面临一定的增长放缓和毛利率压力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>将于11月18日（港股盘后）发布其2025年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据预测，小米第三季度总收入约为1165亿元人民币，同比增长约28%。每股收益预计为0.39元，同比增长75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f9c0d1eb8a99a137eaa459cbad7e7a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"587\"/></p><p>具体来看，智能手机业务仍面临一定压力，预计毛利率受到存储芯片价格上涨的影响。尽管如此，手机高端化战略继续推进，整体收入有望得到支撑。物联网与生活方式产品（IoT）的增速预计会有所放缓，主要受到中国补贴退坡的影响，但毛利率依然保持韧性。电动车业务方面，随着交付量的持续增长，小米汽车有望首次盈利。</p><h2 id=\"id_2824935115\">上季度回顾</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>营收</strong>：1159.6亿元人民币，同比增长30.5%，创历史新高，超出预期的1149.4亿元人民币。</p></li><li><p><strong>调整后净利润</strong>：108.3亿元人民币，同比增长75.4%，同样创下历史新高，超出预期的102.3亿元人民币。</p></li><li><p><strong>营业利润</strong>：134.4亿元人民币，超出预期的104.3亿元人民币。</p></li><li><p><strong>毛利率</strong>：22.5%，环比微降0.3个百分点。</p></li><li><p><strong>研发支出</strong>：77.6亿元人民币，同比增长41.2%，超出预期的71.8亿元人民币。</p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3420669461\">各业务表现：</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>智能电动汽车</strong>：收入213亿元人民币，交付81302辆新车，毛利率26.4%。经营亏损收窄至3亿元人民币，远超市场预期。</p></li><li><p><strong>手机业务</strong>：全球出货量同比微增0.6%，达到4240万台，但收入同比下降2.1%，降至455亿元人民币，主要受低价机型拉低整体平均销售单价（ASP）影响。毛利率从12.1%降至11.5%。</p></li><li><p><strong>AIoT业务</strong>：收入同比增长44.7%，达到387亿元人民币，创历史新高。智能大家电（空调、冰箱、洗衣机）表现尤为突出，收入同比增长66.2%，毛利率提升至22.5%。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3345078273\">本季度看点</h2><p>本季度财报的关键看点主要集中在以下几个方面：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>电动车业务的首次盈利</strong>：电动车业务预计首次实现单季盈利，成为本季度财报的最大亮点。随着交付量的逐步攀升，小米电动汽车业务将成为未来增长的重要驱动力。预计交付量约为10.9万辆，收入286亿元，毛利率在26%以上。电动车业务的盈利能力不仅能提升小米整体财务表现，还能增强市场对其未来增长潜力的信心。</p></li><li><p><strong>智能手机业务面临压力</strong>：智能手机毛利率承压，主要由于存储芯片价格上涨。华泰证券预计，第三季度智能手机收入可能小幅下滑约1%。不过，小米在高端市场的持续推进，特别是17系列的高端机型（Pro/Pro Max）占比提升，仍将为整体收入结构提供一定支撑。高端化战略将有助于抵消部分成本压力，尽管短期内毛利率有所下降，长期来看，仍有助于改善盈利能力。</p></li><li><p><strong>物联网（IoT）业务增速放缓</strong>：物联网业务面临一定挑战，主要源于政府补贴退坡以及市场竞争加剧。尽管如此，物联网的毛利率仍保持韧性。建银国际预计，第三季度IoT收入增速可能放缓至5%，但由于小米避免了大规模的价格战，其毛利率仍将维持较高水平。海外市场的持续扩展，尤其是欧洲和印度市场的渗透，或许会成为IoT板块新的增长亮点。</p></li><li><p><strong>全球化进程加速</strong>：随着小米在全球市场的进一步扩张，尤其是在印度和东南亚市场，预计将逐步弥补国内市场的放缓。高盛预计，随着小米在全球零售业务的加强，海外市场的贡献将加速增长，成为驱动公司整体收入增长的重要因素。</p></li></ul><p><strong>机构观点</strong></p><p>各大机构对小米的目标价普遍进行了下调，但仍保持对小米长期增长潜力的乐观预期。以下是一些主要机构的观点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>华泰证券</strong>：该机构维持小米“买入”评级，并预计第三季度收入将同比增长23%，主要受到电动车业务强劲表现的推动。华泰证券预计小米第三季度的电动车出货量为10.9万台，电动车业务有望首次盈利。尽管手机业务毛利率面临压力，华泰证券仍看好小米在高端市场的持续推进，维持目标价65.4港元，较此前下调约5%。</p></li><li><p><strong>花旗银行</strong>：花旗银行对小米的目标价微调，从66港元下调至65港元。花旗预计小米第三季度的电动车营收将实现盈利，但手机业务毛利率及IoT收入增速未达预期。花旗认为，短期内小米的智能手机业务将面临较大压力，但长期来看，小米在AIoT和电动车等新兴业务的增长将支撑其整体业绩。</p></li><li><p><strong>高盛</strong>：高盛对小米的目标价下调幅度较大，从66港元下调至56.5港元。高盛指出，存储芯片价格上涨会对智能手机毛利率带来压力，且电动汽车二期工厂的延期可能影响交付进度。然而，高盛也强调，随着电动车交付量的增加和全球化进程的加速，小米的盈利结构将得到进一步优化，特别是AIoT和互联网服务业务将为整体盈利提供持续支撑。</p></li><li><p><strong>中银国际</strong>：中银国际维持小米“买入”评级，并将目标价小幅下调至74.4港元。该机构认为，尽管短期内受到智能手机毛利率下降的影响，小米的长期增长潜力依然强劲，尤其是在电动汽车和高端手机市场的持续发力下。中银国际认为，小米目前的估值已具吸引力，是一个长期投资机会。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_303898188\">总结</h2><p>小米即将发布的2025年第三季度财报预计将呈现“冰火两重天”的局面。电动汽车业务的盈利突破可能成为亮点，推动整体业绩增长，而智能手机和物联网业务则面临增长放缓和毛利率压力。尽管短期内挑战较大，机构普遍维持“买入”评级，显示出对小米长期增长潜力的信心。</p><p>投资者应关注三大核心业务的表现：电动车盈利能力、智能手机毛利率变化和物联网业务增长。如果这些业务能够按预期发展，尤其是电动车持续盈利，小米股价可能在未来几个月迎来反弹。</p><p>总体来看，虽然短期压力较大，但小米仍具备强劲的长期增长潜力。投资者应在关注短期财报的同时，把握小米在高端手机、电动汽车及全球扩张中的发展机遇。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 小米Q3营收预增28%，电动车有望实现盈利，智能手机与IoT面临压力</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 小米Q3营收预增28%，电动车有望实现盈利，智能手机与IoT面临压力\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-11 15:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>将于11月18日（港股盘后）发布其2025年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据预测，小米第三季度总收入约为1165亿元人民币，同比增长约28%。每股收益预计为0.39元，同比增长75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f9c0d1eb8a99a137eaa459cbad7e7a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"587\"/></p><p>具体来看，智能手机业务仍面临一定压力，预计毛利率受到存储芯片价格上涨的影响。尽管如此，手机高端化战略继续推进，整体收入有望得到支撑。物联网与生活方式产品（IoT）的增速预计会有所放缓，主要受到中国补贴退坡的影响，但毛利率依然保持韧性。电动车业务方面，随着交付量的持续增长，小米汽车有望首次盈利。</p><h2 id=\"id_2824935115\">上季度回顾</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>营收</strong>：1159.6亿元人民币，同比增长30.5%，创历史新高，超出预期的1149.4亿元人民币。</p></li><li><p><strong>调整后净利润</strong>：108.3亿元人民币，同比增长75.4%，同样创下历史新高，超出预期的102.3亿元人民币。</p></li><li><p><strong>营业利润</strong>：134.4亿元人民币，超出预期的104.3亿元人民币。</p></li><li><p><strong>毛利率</strong>：22.5%，环比微降0.3个百分点。</p></li><li><p><strong>研发支出</strong>：77.6亿元人民币，同比增长41.2%，超出预期的71.8亿元人民币。</p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3420669461\">各业务表现：</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>智能电动汽车</strong>：收入213亿元人民币，交付81302辆新车，毛利率26.4%。经营亏损收窄至3亿元人民币，远超市场预期。</p></li><li><p><strong>手机业务</strong>：全球出货量同比微增0.6%，达到4240万台，但收入同比下降2.1%，降至455亿元人民币，主要受低价机型拉低整体平均销售单价（ASP）影响。毛利率从12.1%降至11.5%。</p></li><li><p><strong>AIoT业务</strong>：收入同比增长44.7%，达到387亿元人民币，创历史新高。智能大家电（空调、冰箱、洗衣机）表现尤为突出，收入同比增长66.2%，毛利率提升至22.5%。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3345078273\">本季度看点</h2><p>本季度财报的关键看点主要集中在以下几个方面：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>电动车业务的首次盈利</strong>：电动车业务预计首次实现单季盈利，成为本季度财报的最大亮点。随着交付量的逐步攀升，小米电动汽车业务将成为未来增长的重要驱动力。预计交付量约为10.9万辆，收入286亿元，毛利率在26%以上。电动车业务的盈利能力不仅能提升小米整体财务表现，还能增强市场对其未来增长潜力的信心。</p></li><li><p><strong>智能手机业务面临压力</strong>：智能手机毛利率承压，主要由于存储芯片价格上涨。华泰证券预计，第三季度智能手机收入可能小幅下滑约1%。不过，小米在高端市场的持续推进，特别是17系列的高端机型（Pro/Pro Max）占比提升，仍将为整体收入结构提供一定支撑。高端化战略将有助于抵消部分成本压力，尽管短期内毛利率有所下降，长期来看，仍有助于改善盈利能力。</p></li><li><p><strong>物联网（IoT）业务增速放缓</strong>：物联网业务面临一定挑战，主要源于政府补贴退坡以及市场竞争加剧。尽管如此，物联网的毛利率仍保持韧性。建银国际预计，第三季度IoT收入增速可能放缓至5%，但由于小米避免了大规模的价格战，其毛利率仍将维持较高水平。海外市场的持续扩展，尤其是欧洲和印度市场的渗透，或许会成为IoT板块新的增长亮点。</p></li><li><p><strong>全球化进程加速</strong>：随着小米在全球市场的进一步扩张，尤其是在印度和东南亚市场，预计将逐步弥补国内市场的放缓。高盛预计，随着小米在全球零售业务的加强，海外市场的贡献将加速增长，成为驱动公司整体收入增长的重要因素。</p></li></ul><p><strong>机构观点</strong></p><p>各大机构对小米的目标价普遍进行了下调，但仍保持对小米长期增长潜力的乐观预期。以下是一些主要机构的观点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>华泰证券</strong>：该机构维持小米“买入”评级，并预计第三季度收入将同比增长23%，主要受到电动车业务强劲表现的推动。华泰证券预计小米第三季度的电动车出货量为10.9万台，电动车业务有望首次盈利。尽管手机业务毛利率面临压力，华泰证券仍看好小米在高端市场的持续推进，维持目标价65.4港元，较此前下调约5%。</p></li><li><p><strong>花旗银行</strong>：花旗银行对小米的目标价微调，从66港元下调至65港元。花旗预计小米第三季度的电动车营收将实现盈利，但手机业务毛利率及IoT收入增速未达预期。花旗认为，短期内小米的智能手机业务将面临较大压力，但长期来看，小米在AIoT和电动车等新兴业务的增长将支撑其整体业绩。</p></li><li><p><strong>高盛</strong>：高盛对小米的目标价下调幅度较大，从66港元下调至56.5港元。高盛指出，存储芯片价格上涨会对智能手机毛利率带来压力，且电动汽车二期工厂的延期可能影响交付进度。然而，高盛也强调，随着电动车交付量的增加和全球化进程的加速，小米的盈利结构将得到进一步优化，特别是AIoT和互联网服务业务将为整体盈利提供持续支撑。</p></li><li><p><strong>中银国际</strong>：中银国际维持小米“买入”评级，并将目标价小幅下调至74.4港元。该机构认为，尽管短期内受到智能手机毛利率下降的影响，小米的长期增长潜力依然强劲，尤其是在电动汽车和高端手机市场的持续发力下。中银国际认为，小米目前的估值已具吸引力，是一个长期投资机会。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_303898188\">总结</h2><p>小米即将发布的2025年第三季度财报预计将呈现“冰火两重天”的局面。电动汽车业务的盈利突破可能成为亮点，推动整体业绩增长，而智能手机和物联网业务则面临增长放缓和毛利率压力。尽管短期内挑战较大，机构普遍维持“买入”评级，显示出对小米长期增长潜力的信心。</p><p>投资者应关注三大核心业务的表现：电动车盈利能力、智能手机毛利率变化和物联网业务增长。如果这些业务能够按预期发展，尤其是电动车持续盈利，小米股价可能在未来几个月迎来反弹。</p><p>总体来看，虽然短期压力较大，但小米仍具备强劲的长期增长潜力。投资者应在关注短期财报的同时，把握小米在高端手机、电动汽车及全球扩张中的发展机遇。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117325495","content_text":"小米集团-W将于11月18日（港股盘后）发布其2025年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据预测，小米第三季度总收入约为1165亿元人民币，同比增长约28%。每股收益预计为0.39元，同比增长75%。具体来看，智能手机业务仍面临一定压力，预计毛利率受到存储芯片价格上涨的影响。尽管如此，手机高端化战略继续推进，整体收入有望得到支撑。物联网与生活方式产品（IoT）的增速预计会有所放缓，主要受到中国补贴退坡的影响，但毛利率依然保持韧性。电动车业务方面，随着交付量的持续增长，小米汽车有望首次盈利。上季度回顾营收：1159.6亿元人民币，同比增长30.5%，创历史新高，超出预期的1149.4亿元人民币。调整后净利润：108.3亿元人民币，同比增长75.4%，同样创下历史新高，超出预期的102.3亿元人民币。营业利润：134.4亿元人民币，超出预期的104.3亿元人民币。毛利率：22.5%，环比微降0.3个百分点。研发支出：77.6亿元人民币，同比增长41.2%，超出预期的71.8亿元人民币。各业务表现：智能电动汽车：收入213亿元人民币，交付81302辆新车，毛利率26.4%。经营亏损收窄至3亿元人民币，远超市场预期。手机业务：全球出货量同比微增0.6%，达到4240万台，但收入同比下降2.1%，降至455亿元人民币，主要受低价机型拉低整体平均销售单价（ASP）影响。毛利率从12.1%降至11.5%。AIoT业务：收入同比增长44.7%，达到387亿元人民币，创历史新高。智能大家电（空调、冰箱、洗衣机）表现尤为突出，收入同比增长66.2%，毛利率提升至22.5%。本季度看点本季度财报的关键看点主要集中在以下几个方面：电动车业务的首次盈利：电动车业务预计首次实现单季盈利，成为本季度财报的最大亮点。随着交付量的逐步攀升，小米电动汽车业务将成为未来增长的重要驱动力。预计交付量约为10.9万辆，收入286亿元，毛利率在26%以上。电动车业务的盈利能力不仅能提升小米整体财务表现，还能增强市场对其未来增长潜力的信心。智能手机业务面临压力：智能手机毛利率承压，主要由于存储芯片价格上涨。华泰证券预计，第三季度智能手机收入可能小幅下滑约1%。不过，小米在高端市场的持续推进，特别是17系列的高端机型（Pro/Pro Max）占比提升，仍将为整体收入结构提供一定支撑。高端化战略将有助于抵消部分成本压力，尽管短期内毛利率有所下降，长期来看，仍有助于改善盈利能力。物联网（IoT）业务增速放缓：物联网业务面临一定挑战，主要源于政府补贴退坡以及市场竞争加剧。尽管如此，物联网的毛利率仍保持韧性。建银国际预计，第三季度IoT收入增速可能放缓至5%，但由于小米避免了大规模的价格战，其毛利率仍将维持较高水平。海外市场的持续扩展，尤其是欧洲和印度市场的渗透，或许会成为IoT板块新的增长亮点。全球化进程加速：随着小米在全球市场的进一步扩张，尤其是在印度和东南亚市场，预计将逐步弥补国内市场的放缓。高盛预计，随着小米在全球零售业务的加强，海外市场的贡献将加速增长，成为驱动公司整体收入增长的重要因素。机构观点各大机构对小米的目标价普遍进行了下调，但仍保持对小米长期增长潜力的乐观预期。以下是一些主要机构的观点：华泰证券：该机构维持小米“买入”评级，并预计第三季度收入将同比增长23%，主要受到电动车业务强劲表现的推动。华泰证券预计小米第三季度的电动车出货量为10.9万台，电动车业务有望首次盈利。尽管手机业务毛利率面临压力，华泰证券仍看好小米在高端市场的持续推进，维持目标价65.4港元，较此前下调约5%。花旗银行：花旗银行对小米的目标价微调，从66港元下调至65港元。花旗预计小米第三季度的电动车营收将实现盈利，但手机业务毛利率及IoT收入增速未达预期。花旗认为，短期内小米的智能手机业务将面临较大压力，但长期来看，小米在AIoT和电动车等新兴业务的增长将支撑其整体业绩。高盛：高盛对小米的目标价下调幅度较大，从66港元下调至56.5港元。高盛指出，存储芯片价格上涨会对智能手机毛利率带来压力，且电动汽车二期工厂的延期可能影响交付进度。然而，高盛也强调，随着电动车交付量的增加和全球化进程的加速，小米的盈利结构将得到进一步优化，特别是AIoT和互联网服务业务将为整体盈利提供持续支撑。中银国际：中银国际维持小米“买入”评级，并将目标价小幅下调至74.4港元。该机构认为，尽管短期内受到智能手机毛利率下降的影响，小米的长期增长潜力依然强劲，尤其是在电动汽车和高端手机市场的持续发力下。中银国际认为，小米目前的估值已具吸引力，是一个长期投资机会。总结小米即将发布的2025年第三季度财报预计将呈现“冰火两重天”的局面。电动汽车业务的盈利突破可能成为亮点，推动整体业绩增长，而智能手机和物联网业务则面临增长放缓和毛利率压力。尽管短期内挑战较大，机构普遍维持“买入”评级，显示出对小米长期增长潜力的信心。投资者应关注三大核心业务的表现：电动车盈利能力、智能手机毛利率变化和物联网业务增长。如果这些业务能够按预期发展，尤其是电动车持续盈利，小米股价可能在未来几个月迎来反弹。总体来看，虽然短期压力较大，但小米仍具备强劲的长期增长潜力。投资者应在关注短期财报的同时，把握小米在高端手机、电动汽车及全球扩张中的发展机遇。此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497005098852496,"gmtCreate":1762361739223,"gmtModify":1762361741537,"author":{"id":"4118205146243860","authorId":"4118205146243860","name":"鲸吞2030","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118205146243860","idStr":"4118205146243860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251105 681.0 CALL\">$SPY 20251105 681.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251105 681.0 CALL\">$SPY 20251105 681.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$SPY 20251105 681.0 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