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万中有三
09-10
很害怕美股涨吗
15999元起的 iPhone Duo，我劝你先别买！
万中有三
08-07
$中际旭创(03308)$
你好买公司吗
万中有三
08-05
被套了吗大空头
《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌
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src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212471.jpg\"/></p><p>从我的角度来讲：这台机器本身，还是要夸的。但夸完产品，得泼盆冷水，因为它救不了苹果。这里的\"救不了\"，指的不是卖不出去。而是我觉得折叠机对苹果来说是一笔\"客单价生意\"，不是一笔\"增长生意\"。它解决的是\"怎么让同一批果粉掏更多钱\"，却回答不了\"苹果下一个十年的增长从哪来\"。这两个问题，很多人觉得是同一个，其实差得很远。</p><p><strong>这是七年来最炸的一台 iPhone</strong></p><p>单看产品，iPhone Duo 确实是苹果这些年少有的硬货。</p><p>看下相关参数：搭载A20 Pro 芯片，内屏展开 7.6 英寸，超视网膜 XDR，比 iPhone 18 Pro Max 大出 50%；折起来外屏 5.4 英寸，跟普通直板机无异，展开的话可以说是史上最薄的 iPhone。为了这个薄度，苹果砍掉了 Face ID 和长焦镜头，指纹识别挪进侧边电源键，后置只剩 4800 万主摄加超广角两颗镜头，全球版只支持 eSIM。</p><p>还有一个细节值得玩味：iPhone Duo 支持Apple Pencil。乔布斯当年发布初代 iPhone 时怎么说的来着？\"谁要触控笔啊？\"十九年后，苹果把笔塞进了自家最贵的手机里。当然，这笔账果粉愿意付，但Pencil 需单独买。</p><p>市场也很给面子。Counterpoint 预测苹果入局第一年就能拿下全球折叠屏 25% 的份额，把<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>从 40% 挤到 32%；IDC 的口径更激进，认为到 2027 年苹果折叠机出货会超过 1700 万台，占到这个品类的四成。<span>面板</span>订单也能侧面说明它的火爆程度：三星给苹果独供的首批折叠面板，订单加到了 2000 万片，比原计划多出两成。竞争对手三星在发布会后放出《欢迎来到折叠时代》的宣传片，字里行间表达的都是\"你终于来了\"，Fold8 的预售也同比涨了三成。</p><p>产品炸、热度炸、机构预期也炸。但我觉得这掩盖不了苹果的后继无力。</p><p><strong>折叠池子太小 喂不饱苹果</strong></p><p>IDC 去年 8 月的数据显示，2025 年全球<span>折叠屏手机</span>出货量约 1983 万台。同一年全球智能手机大盘出货 12 亿台上下，折叠屏渗透率刚过 1.5%。就算苹果入局把整个赛道点着，Omdia 的预测也是 2026 年超 2200 万台、2028 年到 3600 万台。三年后，这个池子还是大盘的零头。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212692.jpg\"/></p><p>高盛基准预测，苹果折叠机 2026 年出货 1100 万台、2027 年 2700 万台。按官方四档定价（1999 / 2199 / 2599 / 3199 美元）估算的话，混合均价 2300 美元上下，首年进账 250 亿美元左右。什么概念？苹果 2025 财年总营收 4161.6 亿美元，这台\"史上最贵 iPhone\"满打满算，贡献不到 6%。而且 Counterpoint 之前说过，折叠机早期需求主要来自现有的iPhone 用户。换句话说，相当一部分是把本来要买 Pro Max 的人挪到了更贵的机器上，左手倒右手，净增量还得再打个折......</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212962.jpg\"/></p><p>苹果服务业务 2025 财年收入 1091.6 亿美元，同比增长 14%，摊到每个季度是 270 多亿美元。一个季度的服务收入，就比折叠机首年全部营收还多。哪怕按高盛的基准情形算到 2027 年，折叠机 600 亿美元上下的年收入，也刚摸到服务业务的一半。</p><p>所以想来想去，这台机器真正的意义，不在销量，而在价格锚点——它向市场证明 iPhone 还能继续涨价。这跟 2017 年 iPhone X 的剧本一模一样：形态创新打底，客单价上位。但问题是，2017 年的智能机大盘还在爬坡，换机周期两年多；2026 年的大盘一年只涨 1.9%，换机周期已经拖到四年。同样的招数，不同的时代。提价这个动作，在增量市场里叫进攻，在存量市场里叫收割自家用户。</p><p>资本市场已经用脚投票。发布会开着，苹果股价往下走。Duo 没有超出预期，投资者担心的还有：1999 美元的起售价压不住折叠屏的成本，利润率要承压。</p><p><strong>治得好创新焦虑，治不好苹果的病</strong></p><p>更要命的是，苹果现在最疼的地方，根本不在硬件形态上。</p><p>第一个疼点是 AI。Apple Intelligence 到 2024 年 WWDC 才仓促亮相，AI 版 Siri 一路跳票。这场发布会上，特努斯总算把新 Siri 端了出来：端侧模型打底，<span>私有云</span>接力，搞不定的请求路由给谷歌Gemini。但有个发布会上没怎么强调的事实——这套 Siri AI，<span>首发</span>没有中国，也没有欧盟。一台 15999 元起的国行 Duo，到手用不了苹果自己最看重的 AI 能力，这比任何评测都说明问题。</p><p>瑞银 6 月的调查显示，只有 24% 的消费者愿意因为 Apple Intelligence 提前换机，比半年前还少了 5 个百分点。一家坐拥约 25 亿台活跃设备的公司，在 AI 上要靠 Gemini 这种外援补窟窿...这事库克时代没解决，现在交到了特努斯手上。折叠机回答不了这个问题，甚至没法回避：两万块的 AI 手机，里面的 Siri 还是个半成品，国行用户连半成品都用不上。</p><p>第二个疼点是服务业务头顶的剑。谷歌每年付给苹果约 200 亿美元，买 Safari 的默认搜索位——按此前披露的协议条款，这笔钱至少签到 2026 年 9 月，也就是这个月。谷歌反垄断败诉之后，摩根士丹利估算协议告吹会打掉苹果 4% 到 6% 的利润，Evercore ISI 的口径是 15% 的税前利润承压。服务业务是苹果这些年估值故事的另一半，而这一半的命运，却捏在法院手里。</p><p>第三个疼点最隐蔽：苹果已经很多年没有做出\"下一个不是 iPhone 的东西\"了。可穿戴业务 2025 财年下滑 4%，Vision Pro没能点燃<span>空间计算</span>，汽车项目干脆砍掉。iPhone 占营收的比重还在 50% 以上。折叠机改变不了这个结构，它恰恰把这个结构焊得更死了：又一台 iPhone，只是一台更贵的 iPhone。</p><p>想想也挺矛盾的。今年 7 月底，苹果市值一度冲到 4.94 万亿美元，反超英伟达重回全球第一。市场用钱投票，投的是\"苹果的现金流依然无敌\"；但市场真正想听的答案，是\"AI 时代苹果还是不是入口\"。折叠机对前一个问题是锦上添花，对后一个问题是不置可否。</p><p>2017 年 iPhone X 发布的时候，我在稿子里写过一句话：苹果用形态创新开启了一轮超级周期。看来是对的，因为大盘在涨、用户在换机、竞争对手还没跟上。九年过去，三个前提一个都不剩了。</p><p>折叠机能让苹果继续贵下去，但没办法让苹果继续长大。一台两万块左右的手机，能救活它吗？</p>\n<div>\n<p>美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>></p>\n<div>\n 责任编辑：栎树\n </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>15999元起的 iPhone Duo，我劝你先别买！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n15999元起的 iPhone Duo，我劝你先别买！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-10 09:22 北京时间 <a href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/09/10092258402077.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：新商纪北京时间9月10日凌晨，苹果秋季发布会落幕，主题叫\"惊喜闪耀\"（Surprise and Shine）。这是约翰·特努斯9 月 1 日接任 CEO 之后的第一场大秀。传闻了七年的折叠 iPhone 这次真的来了，但名字出乎所有人意料：不叫 iPhone Fold，也不叫 iPhone Ultra，叫iPhone Duo。起售价 1999 美元，国行 15999 元起，顶配 2TB 版卖...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/09/10092258402077.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://imgcloud.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212471.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","LU0724617625.USD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0788109477.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) 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iPhone，没有之一。从我的角度来讲：这台机器本身，还是要夸的。但夸完产品，得泼盆冷水，因为它救不了苹果。这里的\"救不了\"，指的不是卖不出去。而是我觉得折叠机对苹果来说是一笔\"客单价生意\"，不是一笔\"增长生意\"。它解决的是\"怎么让同一批果粉掏更多钱\"，却回答不了\"苹果下一个十年的增长从哪来\"。这两个问题，很多人觉得是同一个，其实差得很远。这是七年来最炸的一台 iPhone单看产品，iPhone Duo 确实是苹果这些年少有的硬货。看下相关参数：搭载A20 Pro 芯片，内屏展开 7.6 英寸，超视网膜 XDR，比 iPhone 18 Pro Max 大出 50%；折起来外屏 5.4 英寸，跟普通直板机无异，展开的话可以说是史上最薄的 iPhone。为了这个薄度，苹果砍掉了 Face ID 和长焦镜头，指纹识别挪进侧边电源键，后置只剩 4800 万主摄加超广角两颗镜头，全球版只支持 eSIM。还有一个细节值得玩味：iPhone Duo 支持Apple Pencil。乔布斯当年发布初代 iPhone 时怎么说的来着？\"谁要触控笔啊？\"十九年后，苹果把笔塞进了自家最贵的手机里。当然，这笔账果粉愿意付，但Pencil 需单独买。市场也很给面子。Counterpoint 预测苹果入局第一年就能拿下全球折叠屏 25% 的份额，把三星从 40% 挤到 32%；IDC 的口径更激进，认为到 2027 年苹果折叠机出货会超过 1700 万台，占到这个品类的四成。面板订单也能侧面说明它的火爆程度：三星给苹果独供的首批折叠面板，订单加到了 2000 万片，比原计划多出两成。竞争对手三星在发布会后放出《欢迎来到折叠时代》的宣传片，字里行间表达的都是\"你终于来了\"，Fold8 的预售也同比涨了三成。产品炸、热度炸、机构预期也炸。但我觉得这掩盖不了苹果的后继无力。折叠池子太小 喂不饱苹果IDC 去年 8 月的数据显示，2025 年全球折叠屏手机出货量约 1983 万台。同一年全球智能手机大盘出货 12 亿台上下，折叠屏渗透率刚过 1.5%。就算苹果入局把整个赛道点着，Omdia 的预测也是 2026 年超 2200 万台、2028 年到 3600 万台。三年后，这个池子还是大盘的零头。高盛基准预测，苹果折叠机 2026 年出货 1100 万台、2027 年 2700 万台。按官方四档定价（1999 / 2199 / 2599 / 3199 美元）估算的话，混合均价 2300 美元上下，首年进账 250 亿美元左右。什么概念？苹果 2025 财年总营收 4161.6 亿美元，这台\"史上最贵 iPhone\"满打满算，贡献不到 6%。而且 Counterpoint 之前说过，折叠机早期需求主要来自现有的iPhone 用户。换句话说，相当一部分是把本来要买 Pro Max 的人挪到了更贵的机器上，左手倒右手，净增量还得再打个折......苹果服务业务 2025 财年收入 1091.6 亿美元，同比增长 14%，摊到每个季度是 270 多亿美元。一个季度的服务收入，就比折叠机首年全部营收还多。哪怕按高盛的基准情形算到 2027 年，折叠机 600 亿美元上下的年收入，也刚摸到服务业务的一半。所以想来想去，这台机器真正的意义，不在销量，而在价格锚点——它向市场证明 iPhone 还能继续涨价。这跟 2017 年 iPhone X 的剧本一模一样：形态创新打底，客单价上位。但问题是，2017 年的智能机大盘还在爬坡，换机周期两年多；2026 年的大盘一年只涨 1.9%，换机周期已经拖到四年。同样的招数，不同的时代。提价这个动作，在增量市场里叫进攻，在存量市场里叫收割自家用户。资本市场已经用脚投票。发布会开着，苹果股价往下走。Duo 没有超出预期，投资者担心的还有：1999 美元的起售价压不住折叠屏的成本，利润率要承压。治得好创新焦虑，治不好苹果的病更要命的是，苹果现在最疼的地方，根本不在硬件形态上。第一个疼点是 AI。Apple Intelligence 到 2024 年 WWDC 才仓促亮相，AI 版 Siri 一路跳票。这场发布会上，特努斯总算把新 Siri 端了出来：端侧模型打底，私有云接力，搞不定的请求路由给谷歌Gemini。但有个发布会上没怎么强调的事实——这套 Siri AI，首发没有中国，也没有欧盟。一台 15999 元起的国行 Duo，到手用不了苹果自己最看重的 AI 能力，这比任何评测都说明问题。瑞银 6 月的调查显示，只有 24% 的消费者愿意因为 Apple Intelligence 提前换机，比半年前还少了 5 个百分点。一家坐拥约 25 亿台活跃设备的公司，在 AI 上要靠 Gemini 这种外援补窟窿...这事库克时代没解决，现在交到了特努斯手上。折叠机回答不了这个问题，甚至没法回避：两万块的 AI 手机，里面的 Siri 还是个半成品，国行用户连半成品都用不上。第二个疼点是服务业务头顶的剑。谷歌每年付给苹果约 200 亿美元，买 Safari 的默认搜索位——按此前披露的协议条款，这笔钱至少签到 2026 年 9 月，也就是这个月。谷歌反垄断败诉之后，摩根士丹利估算协议告吹会打掉苹果 4% 到 6% 的利润，Evercore ISI 的口径是 15% 的税前利润承压。服务业务是苹果这些年估值故事的另一半，而这一半的命运，却捏在法院手里。第三个疼点最隐蔽：苹果已经很多年没有做出\"下一个不是 iPhone 的东西\"了。可穿戴业务 2025 财年下滑 4%，Vision Pro没能点燃空间计算，汽车项目干脆砍掉。iPhone 占营收的比重还在 50% 以上。折叠机改变不了这个结构，它恰恰把这个结构焊得更死了：又一台 iPhone，只是一台更贵的 iPhone。想想也挺矛盾的。今年 7 月底，苹果市值一度冲到 4.94 万亿美元，反超英伟达重回全球第一。市场用钱投票，投的是\"苹果的现金流依然无敌\"；但市场真正想听的答案，是\"AI 时代苹果还是不是入口\"。折叠机对前一个问题是锦上添花，对后一个问题是不置可否。2017 年 iPhone X 发布的时候，我在稿子里写过一句话：苹果用形态创新开启了一轮超级周期。看来是对的，因为大盘在涨、用户在换机、竞争对手还没跟上。九年过去，三个前提一个都不剩了。折叠机能让苹果继续贵下去，但没办法让苹果继续长大。一台两万块左右的手机，能救活它吗？\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\n 责任编辑：栎树","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPB":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"SAAPLmain":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"AAPE":0.6,"IOSX":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"VT":0.6,"AAPL":1.98,"IXN":0.6,"VGT":0.6,"METV":0.6,"ABFL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":594194445264120,"gmtCreate":1786085213914,"gmtModify":1786086695270,"author":{"id":"4115622194105270","authorId":"4115622194105270","name":"万中有三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b2cd4955c12fd33d186b67eb66f1cd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115622194105270","idStr":"4115622194105270"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03308\">$中际旭创(03308)$</a> 你好买公司吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03308\">$中际旭创(03308)$</a> 你好买公司吗","text":"$中际旭创(03308)$ 你好买公司吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/594194445264120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593413897577752,"gmtCreate":1785890996154,"gmtModify":1785891400364,"author":{"id":"4115622194105270","authorId":"4115622194105270","name":"万中有三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b2cd4955c12fd33d186b67eb66f1cd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115622194105270","idStr":"4115622194105270"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"被套了吗大空头","listText":"被套了吗大空头","text":"被套了吗大空头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593413897577752","repostId":"1108282527","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108282527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785890794,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108282527?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-05 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108282527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”因电影《大空头》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里，即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">重点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因电影《大空头（<span>The Big Short</span>）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（<span>Michael Burry</span>），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标普500指数</strong>周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对<strong>霍尔木兹海峡</strong>将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">科技股占比较高的<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种<strong>自我强化的循环</strong>，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的<strong>空头头寸</strong>：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美光科技（Micron）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（Nvidia）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>特斯拉（Tesla）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>应用材料（Applied Materials）</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他说，目前这些空头头寸<strong>除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-05 08:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">重点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因电影《大空头（<span>The Big Short</span>）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（<span>Michael Burry</span>），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标普500指数</strong>周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对<strong>霍尔木兹海峡</strong>将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">科技股占比较高的<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种<strong>自我强化的循环</strong>，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的<strong>空头头寸</strong>：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美光科技（Micron）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（Nvidia）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>特斯拉（Tesla）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>应用材料（Applied Materials）</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他说，目前这些空头头寸<strong>除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1b39b22a82612ecf8be42d25d85963","relate_stocks":{"PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","MUZ":"2倍做空MU ETF-Defiance","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","PLTU":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Direxion","07366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","PLTW":"PLTR周配息ETF-Roundhill","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","PLTY":"PLTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","07388":"南方两倍做空英伟达","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA 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Burry），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对霍尔木兹海峡将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。科技股占比较高的纳斯达克综合指数大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的空头头寸：iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）美光科技（Micron）英伟达（Nvidia）卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）Palantir特斯拉（Tesla）应用材料（Applied Materials）伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。他说，目前这些空头头寸除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态。伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTIR":0.6,"AMAT":2,"PLTU":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLA":2,"PLTD":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"CAT":2,"TSLG":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"PLTR":2,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"09366":0.6,"MU":2,"NVD":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVII":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"07366":0.6,"07788":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"SOXX":2,"09766":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"NVDW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":593413897577752,"gmtCreate":1785890996154,"gmtModify":1785891400364,"author":{"id":"4115622194105270","authorId":"4115622194105270","name":"万中有三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b2cd4955c12fd33d186b67eb66f1cd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115622194105270","idStr":"4115622194105270"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"被套了吗大空头","listText":"被套了吗大空头","text":"被套了吗大空头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/593413897577752","repostId":"1108282527","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108282527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785890794,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108282527?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-05 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108282527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"重点伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”因电影《大空头》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里，即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">重点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因电影《大空头（<span>The Big Short</span>）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（<span>Michael Burry</span>），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标普500指数</strong>周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对<strong>霍尔木兹海峡</strong>将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">科技股占比较高的<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种<strong>自我强化的循环</strong>，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的<strong>空头头寸</strong>：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美光科技（Micron）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（Nvidia）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>特斯拉（Tesla）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>应用材料（Applied Materials）</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他说，目前这些空头头寸<strong>除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大空头》原型Michael Burry 押注美股反弹将结束：我们接近一个重大顶部，可能出现类似1987年的暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-05 08:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">重点</h2><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌。”</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利好于预期以及油价再次下跌推动了市场上涨。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因电影《大空头（<span>The Big Short</span>）》而闻名的迈克尔·伯里（<span>Michael Burry</span>），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>标普500指数</strong>周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对<strong>霍尔木兹海峡</strong>将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">科技股占比较高的<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种<strong>自我强化的循环</strong>，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的<strong>空头头寸</strong>：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>美光科技（Micron）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达（Nvidia）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Palantir</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>特斯拉（Tesla）</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>应用材料（Applied Materials）</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他说，目前这些空头头寸<strong>除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1b39b22a82612ecf8be42d25d85963","relate_stocks":{"PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","MUZ":"2倍做空MU ETF-Defiance","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","PLTU":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Direxion","07366":"南方两倍做空特斯拉","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","PLTW":"PLTR周配息ETF-Roundhill","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","PLTY":"PLTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","07388":"南方两倍做空英伟达","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA 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Burry），即使标普500指数飙升至历史新高，仍坚持自己的看空押注，并警告称，这轮上涨行情最终仍可能演变成类似1987年股市崩盘那样的剧烈抛售。伯里周二在Substack上发文表示：“我仍然认为，我们有可能已经接近一个重大顶部，并且可能出现类似1987年的下跌，但标普500指数创出新高，很可能会吸引新的资金进入市场。”标普500指数周二上涨1.9%，创下自6月以来首次历史新高收盘。企业盈利强于预期，同时油价再次下跌，市场对霍尔木兹海峡将重新向海运开放的希望升温，这些因素共同推动了股市上涨。科技股占比较高的纳斯达克综合指数大涨2.7%，使其仅在本周前两个交易日的累计涨幅就接近5%。伯里一直是华尔街对人工智能热潮最直言不讳的怀疑者之一。他认为，当前对人工智能基础设施的需求，很大程度上是由一些最终可能无法持续的融资安排推动的。他表示，市场的上涨正在形成一种自我强化的循环，随着波动率下降，系统性投资者会增加市场敞口，从而进一步推动市场上涨。他写道：“记住，市场在波动率下降的情况下上涨，会迫使波动率目标型基金提高杠杆，同时也会让其他动量策略的杠杆资金开始发挥作用。”面对市场持续上涨，伯里表示，他仍然持有以下标的的空头头寸：iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）美光科技（Micron）英伟达（Nvidia）卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）Palantir特斯拉（Tesla）应用材料（Applied Materials）伯里表示，他仍然对这些空头头寸的长期判断充满信心。不过，他补充说，如果这些交易明显朝着对他不利的方向发展，他会选择止损。他说，目前这些空头头寸除了做空英伟达之外，其余全部仍处于盈利状态。伯里写道：“再次强调，做空并不适合所有人。我必须做空，但大多数人不应该这么做。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTIR":0.6,"AMAT":2,"PLTU":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLA":2,"PLTD":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"CAT":2,"TSLG":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"PLTR":2,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"09366":0.6,"MU":2,"NVD":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVII":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"07366":0.6,"07788":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"PLYY":0.6,"SOXX":2,"09766":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"NVDW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606172005912920,"gmtCreate":1789020856304,"gmtModify":1789025448964,"author":{"id":"4115622194105270","authorId":"4115622194105270","name":"万中有三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b2cd4955c12fd33d186b67eb66f1cd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115622194105270","idStr":"4115622194105270"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"很害怕美股涨吗","listText":"很害怕美股涨吗","text":"很害怕美股涨吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606172005912920","repostId":"2666559962","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2666559962","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1789003332,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2666559962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-10 09:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"15999元起的 iPhone Duo，我劝你先别买！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2666559962","media":"金融界","summary":"史上最贵 iPhone，没有之一。这是七年来最炸的一台 iPhone单看产品，iPhone Duo 确实是苹果这些年少有的硬货。还有一个细节值得玩味：iPhone Duo 支持Apple Pencil。苹果 2025 财年总营收 4161.6 亿美元，这台\"史上最贵 iPhone\"满打满算，贡献不到 6%。一台 15999 元起的国行 Duo，到手用不了苹果自己最看重的 AI 能力，这比任何评测都说明问题。可穿戴业务 2025 财年下滑 4%，Vision Pro没能点燃空间计算，汽车项目干脆砍掉。iPhone 占营收的比重还在 50% 以上。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>来源：新商纪</p><p>北京时间9月10日凌晨，苹果秋季发布会落幕，主题叫\"惊喜闪耀\"（Surprise and Shine）。这是约翰·特努斯9 月 1 日接任 CEO 之后的第一场大秀。传闻了七年的折叠 iPhone 这次真的来了，但名字出乎所有人意料：不叫 iPhone Fold，也不叫 iPhone Ultra，叫iPhone Duo。起售价 1999 美元，国行 15999 元起，顶配 2TB 版卖到 3199 美元、26499 元人民币。史上最贵 iPhone，没有之一。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212471.jpg\"/></p><p>从我的角度来讲：这台机器本身，还是要夸的。但夸完产品，得泼盆冷水，因为它救不了苹果。这里的\"救不了\"，指的不是卖不出去。而是我觉得折叠机对苹果来说是一笔\"客单价生意\"，不是一笔\"增长生意\"。它解决的是\"怎么让同一批果粉掏更多钱\"，却回答不了\"苹果下一个十年的增长从哪来\"。这两个问题，很多人觉得是同一个，其实差得很远。</p><p><strong>这是七年来最炸的一台 iPhone</strong></p><p>单看产品，iPhone Duo 确实是苹果这些年少有的硬货。</p><p>看下相关参数：搭载A20 Pro 芯片，内屏展开 7.6 英寸，超视网膜 XDR，比 iPhone 18 Pro Max 大出 50%；折起来外屏 5.4 英寸，跟普通直板机无异，展开的话可以说是史上最薄的 iPhone。为了这个薄度，苹果砍掉了 Face ID 和长焦镜头，指纹识别挪进侧边电源键，后置只剩 4800 万主摄加超广角两颗镜头，全球版只支持 eSIM。</p><p>还有一个细节值得玩味：iPhone Duo 支持Apple Pencil。乔布斯当年发布初代 iPhone 时怎么说的来着？\"谁要触控笔啊？\"十九年后，苹果把笔塞进了自家最贵的手机里。当然，这笔账果粉愿意付，但Pencil 需单独买。</p><p>市场也很给面子。Counterpoint 预测苹果入局第一年就能拿下全球折叠屏 25% 的份额，把<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>从 40% 挤到 32%；IDC 的口径更激进，认为到 2027 年苹果折叠机出货会超过 1700 万台，占到这个品类的四成。<span>面板</span>订单也能侧面说明它的火爆程度：三星给苹果独供的首批折叠面板，订单加到了 2000 万片，比原计划多出两成。竞争对手三星在发布会后放出《欢迎来到折叠时代》的宣传片，字里行间表达的都是\"你终于来了\"，Fold8 的预售也同比涨了三成。</p><p>产品炸、热度炸、机构预期也炸。但我觉得这掩盖不了苹果的后继无力。</p><p><strong>折叠池子太小 喂不饱苹果</strong></p><p>IDC 去年 8 月的数据显示，2025 年全球<span>折叠屏手机</span>出货量约 1983 万台。同一年全球智能手机大盘出货 12 亿台上下，折叠屏渗透率刚过 1.5%。就算苹果入局把整个赛道点着，Omdia 的预测也是 2026 年超 2200 万台、2028 年到 3600 万台。三年后，这个池子还是大盘的零头。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212692.jpg\"/></p><p>高盛基准预测，苹果折叠机 2026 年出货 1100 万台、2027 年 2700 万台。按官方四档定价（1999 / 2199 / 2599 / 3199 美元）估算的话，混合均价 2300 美元上下，首年进账 250 亿美元左右。什么概念？苹果 2025 财年总营收 4161.6 亿美元，这台\"史上最贵 iPhone\"满打满算，贡献不到 6%。而且 Counterpoint 之前说过，折叠机早期需求主要来自现有的iPhone 用户。换句话说，相当一部分是把本来要买 Pro Max 的人挪到了更贵的机器上，左手倒右手，净增量还得再打个折......</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212962.jpg\"/></p><p>苹果服务业务 2025 财年收入 1091.6 亿美元，同比增长 14%，摊到每个季度是 270 多亿美元。一个季度的服务收入，就比折叠机首年全部营收还多。哪怕按高盛的基准情形算到 2027 年，折叠机 600 亿美元上下的年收入，也刚摸到服务业务的一半。</p><p>所以想来想去，这台机器真正的意义，不在销量，而在价格锚点——它向市场证明 iPhone 还能继续涨价。这跟 2017 年 iPhone X 的剧本一模一样：形态创新打底，客单价上位。但问题是，2017 年的智能机大盘还在爬坡，换机周期两年多；2026 年的大盘一年只涨 1.9%，换机周期已经拖到四年。同样的招数，不同的时代。提价这个动作，在增量市场里叫进攻，在存量市场里叫收割自家用户。</p><p>资本市场已经用脚投票。发布会开着，苹果股价往下走。Duo 没有超出预期，投资者担心的还有：1999 美元的起售价压不住折叠屏的成本，利润率要承压。</p><p><strong>治得好创新焦虑，治不好苹果的病</strong></p><p>更要命的是，苹果现在最疼的地方，根本不在硬件形态上。</p><p>第一个疼点是 AI。Apple Intelligence 到 2024 年 WWDC 才仓促亮相，AI 版 Siri 一路跳票。这场发布会上，特努斯总算把新 Siri 端了出来：端侧模型打底，<span>私有云</span>接力，搞不定的请求路由给谷歌Gemini。但有个发布会上没怎么强调的事实——这套 Siri AI，<span>首发</span>没有中国，也没有欧盟。一台 15999 元起的国行 Duo，到手用不了苹果自己最看重的 AI 能力，这比任何评测都说明问题。</p><p>瑞银 6 月的调查显示，只有 24% 的消费者愿意因为 Apple Intelligence 提前换机，比半年前还少了 5 个百分点。一家坐拥约 25 亿台活跃设备的公司，在 AI 上要靠 Gemini 这种外援补窟窿...这事库克时代没解决，现在交到了特努斯手上。折叠机回答不了这个问题，甚至没法回避：两万块的 AI 手机，里面的 Siri 还是个半成品，国行用户连半成品都用不上。</p><p>第二个疼点是服务业务头顶的剑。谷歌每年付给苹果约 200 亿美元，买 Safari 的默认搜索位——按此前披露的协议条款，这笔钱至少签到 2026 年 9 月，也就是这个月。谷歌反垄断败诉之后，摩根士丹利估算协议告吹会打掉苹果 4% 到 6% 的利润，Evercore ISI 的口径是 15% 的税前利润承压。服务业务是苹果这些年估值故事的另一半，而这一半的命运，却捏在法院手里。</p><p>第三个疼点最隐蔽：苹果已经很多年没有做出\"下一个不是 iPhone 的东西\"了。可穿戴业务 2025 财年下滑 4%，Vision Pro没能点燃<span>空间计算</span>，汽车项目干脆砍掉。iPhone 占营收的比重还在 50% 以上。折叠机改变不了这个结构，它恰恰把这个结构焊得更死了：又一台 iPhone，只是一台更贵的 iPhone。</p><p>想想也挺矛盾的。今年 7 月底，苹果市值一度冲到 4.94 万亿美元，反超英伟达重回全球第一。市场用钱投票，投的是\"苹果的现金流依然无敌\"；但市场真正想听的答案，是\"AI 时代苹果还是不是入口\"。折叠机对前一个问题是锦上添花，对后一个问题是不置可否。</p><p>2017 年 iPhone X 发布的时候，我在稿子里写过一句话：苹果用形态创新开启了一轮超级周期。看来是对的，因为大盘在涨、用户在换机、竞争对手还没跟上。九年过去，三个前提一个都不剩了。</p><p>折叠机能让苹果继续贵下去，但没办法让苹果继续长大。一台两万块左右的手机，能救活它吗？</p>\n<div>\n<p>美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>></p>\n<div>\n 责任编辑：栎树\n </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>15999元起的 iPhone Duo，我劝你先别买！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n15999元起的 iPhone Duo，我劝你先别买！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-09-10 09:22 北京时间 <a href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/09/10092258402077.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：新商纪北京时间9月10日凌晨，苹果秋季发布会落幕，主题叫\"惊喜闪耀\"（Surprise and Shine）。这是约翰·特努斯9 月 1 日接任 CEO 之后的第一场大秀。传闻了七年的折叠 iPhone 这次真的来了，但名字出乎所有人意料：不叫 iPhone Fold，也不叫 iPhone Ultra，叫iPhone Duo。起售价 1999 美元，国行 15999 元起，顶配 2TB 版卖...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2026/09/10092258402077.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://imgcloud.jrjimg.cn/2026/09/cms_20260910092212471.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","LU0724617625.USD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0788109477.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) 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iPhone，没有之一。从我的角度来讲：这台机器本身，还是要夸的。但夸完产品，得泼盆冷水，因为它救不了苹果。这里的\"救不了\"，指的不是卖不出去。而是我觉得折叠机对苹果来说是一笔\"客单价生意\"，不是一笔\"增长生意\"。它解决的是\"怎么让同一批果粉掏更多钱\"，却回答不了\"苹果下一个十年的增长从哪来\"。这两个问题，很多人觉得是同一个，其实差得很远。这是七年来最炸的一台 iPhone单看产品，iPhone Duo 确实是苹果这些年少有的硬货。看下相关参数：搭载A20 Pro 芯片，内屏展开 7.6 英寸，超视网膜 XDR，比 iPhone 18 Pro Max 大出 50%；折起来外屏 5.4 英寸，跟普通直板机无异，展开的话可以说是史上最薄的 iPhone。为了这个薄度，苹果砍掉了 Face ID 和长焦镜头，指纹识别挪进侧边电源键，后置只剩 4800 万主摄加超广角两颗镜头，全球版只支持 eSIM。还有一个细节值得玩味：iPhone Duo 支持Apple Pencil。乔布斯当年发布初代 iPhone 时怎么说的来着？\"谁要触控笔啊？\"十九年后，苹果把笔塞进了自家最贵的手机里。当然，这笔账果粉愿意付，但Pencil 需单独买。市场也很给面子。Counterpoint 预测苹果入局第一年就能拿下全球折叠屏 25% 的份额，把三星从 40% 挤到 32%；IDC 的口径更激进，认为到 2027 年苹果折叠机出货会超过 1700 万台，占到这个品类的四成。面板订单也能侧面说明它的火爆程度：三星给苹果独供的首批折叠面板，订单加到了 2000 万片，比原计划多出两成。竞争对手三星在发布会后放出《欢迎来到折叠时代》的宣传片，字里行间表达的都是\"你终于来了\"，Fold8 的预售也同比涨了三成。产品炸、热度炸、机构预期也炸。但我觉得这掩盖不了苹果的后继无力。折叠池子太小 喂不饱苹果IDC 去年 8 月的数据显示，2025 年全球折叠屏手机出货量约 1983 万台。同一年全球智能手机大盘出货 12 亿台上下，折叠屏渗透率刚过 1.5%。就算苹果入局把整个赛道点着，Omdia 的预测也是 2026 年超 2200 万台、2028 年到 3600 万台。三年后，这个池子还是大盘的零头。高盛基准预测，苹果折叠机 2026 年出货 1100 万台、2027 年 2700 万台。按官方四档定价（1999 / 2199 / 2599 / 3199 美元）估算的话，混合均价 2300 美元上下，首年进账 250 亿美元左右。什么概念？苹果 2025 财年总营收 4161.6 亿美元，这台\"史上最贵 iPhone\"满打满算，贡献不到 6%。而且 Counterpoint 之前说过，折叠机早期需求主要来自现有的iPhone 用户。换句话说，相当一部分是把本来要买 Pro Max 的人挪到了更贵的机器上，左手倒右手，净增量还得再打个折......苹果服务业务 2025 财年收入 1091.6 亿美元，同比增长 14%，摊到每个季度是 270 多亿美元。一个季度的服务收入，就比折叠机首年全部营收还多。哪怕按高盛的基准情形算到 2027 年，折叠机 600 亿美元上下的年收入，也刚摸到服务业务的一半。所以想来想去，这台机器真正的意义，不在销量，而在价格锚点——它向市场证明 iPhone 还能继续涨价。这跟 2017 年 iPhone X 的剧本一模一样：形态创新打底，客单价上位。但问题是，2017 年的智能机大盘还在爬坡，换机周期两年多；2026 年的大盘一年只涨 1.9%，换机周期已经拖到四年。同样的招数，不同的时代。提价这个动作，在增量市场里叫进攻，在存量市场里叫收割自家用户。资本市场已经用脚投票。发布会开着，苹果股价往下走。Duo 没有超出预期，投资者担心的还有：1999 美元的起售价压不住折叠屏的成本，利润率要承压。治得好创新焦虑，治不好苹果的病更要命的是，苹果现在最疼的地方，根本不在硬件形态上。第一个疼点是 AI。Apple Intelligence 到 2024 年 WWDC 才仓促亮相，AI 版 Siri 一路跳票。这场发布会上，特努斯总算把新 Siri 端了出来：端侧模型打底，私有云接力，搞不定的请求路由给谷歌Gemini。但有个发布会上没怎么强调的事实——这套 Siri AI，首发没有中国，也没有欧盟。一台 15999 元起的国行 Duo，到手用不了苹果自己最看重的 AI 能力，这比任何评测都说明问题。瑞银 6 月的调查显示，只有 24% 的消费者愿意因为 Apple Intelligence 提前换机，比半年前还少了 5 个百分点。一家坐拥约 25 亿台活跃设备的公司，在 AI 上要靠 Gemini 这种外援补窟窿...这事库克时代没解决，现在交到了特努斯手上。折叠机回答不了这个问题，甚至没法回避：两万块的 AI 手机，里面的 Siri 还是个半成品，国行用户连半成品都用不上。第二个疼点是服务业务头顶的剑。谷歌每年付给苹果约 200 亿美元，买 Safari 的默认搜索位——按此前披露的协议条款，这笔钱至少签到 2026 年 9 月，也就是这个月。谷歌反垄断败诉之后，摩根士丹利估算协议告吹会打掉苹果 4% 到 6% 的利润，Evercore ISI 的口径是 15% 的税前利润承压。服务业务是苹果这些年估值故事的另一半，而这一半的命运，却捏在法院手里。第三个疼点最隐蔽：苹果已经很多年没有做出\"下一个不是 iPhone 的东西\"了。可穿戴业务 2025 财年下滑 4%，Vision Pro没能点燃空间计算，汽车项目干脆砍掉。iPhone 占营收的比重还在 50% 以上。折叠机改变不了这个结构，它恰恰把这个结构焊得更死了：又一台 iPhone，只是一台更贵的 iPhone。想想也挺矛盾的。今年 7 月底，苹果市值一度冲到 4.94 万亿美元，反超英伟达重回全球第一。市场用钱投票，投的是\"苹果的现金流依然无敌\"；但市场真正想听的答案，是\"AI 时代苹果还是不是入口\"。折叠机对前一个问题是锦上添花，对后一个问题是不置可否。2017 年 iPhone X 发布的时候，我在稿子里写过一句话：苹果用形态创新开启了一轮超级周期。看来是对的，因为大盘在涨、用户在换机、竞争对手还没跟上。九年过去，三个前提一个都不剩了。折叠机能让苹果继续贵下去，但没办法让苹果继续长大。一台两万块左右的手机，能救活它吗？\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\n 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