价格投机的个人主页 - 老虎社区

价格投机

价格投机

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IP属地：海外

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3主题

0勋章

02-06

头铁做多富时中国，做多标普，都打到布林线下轨了，除非趋势向下我认输，否则死扛着，

01-31

你信吗？前几天说不要做空白银，结果白银大跌，现在又跑出来说不要做多白银，川普在印钞打仗，黄金能跌？除非加息，中国央行在买黄金，能跌？这帮黑嘴就会糊弄散户

01-29

为啥这个时候出不要做空？白银已经严重过热，随时可能暴跌

2025-12-28

$沪深300(000300.SH)$

2025-12-29

Replying to @三市波段笔记:理由是什么？白银暴涨是见顶信号，半导体一小时线已经掉头向下了//@三市波段笔记:科技我不做空，白银做空的仓位我增加了//@始皇:今天科技不妙呀，是不是得改成都做空？

01-30

Replying to @虎虎的小尾巴:你们真缺德，刚说不要做空就是暴跌，//@虎虎的小尾巴:别人说啥不重要。你想做就做//@始皇:为啥这个时候出不要做空？白银已经严重过热，随时可能暴跌

01-29

现在有可能暴跌，也有可能做空

02-26

$2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion(MUU)$

02-17

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 爸爸

02-05

收到，做空黄金

中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表，继续看好中美股市和金银铜

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 爸爸","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 爸爸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533666623341472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529658624295864,"gmtCreate":1770332074313,"gmtModify":1770332077136,"author":{"id":"4113710084411392","authorId":"4113710084411392","name":"价格投机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e93ce64f19a039ed4e90a716037e0d3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113710084411392","authorIdStr":"4113710084411392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"头铁做多富时中国，做多标普，都打到布林线下轨了，除非趋势向下我认输，否则死扛着，","listText":"头铁做多富时中国，做多标普，都打到布林线下轨了，除非趋势向下我认输，否则死扛着，","text":"头铁做多富时中国，做多标普，都打到布林线下轨了，除非趋势向下我认输，否则死扛着，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529658624295864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3455967323479283","authorId":"3455967323479283","name":"有认知却没钱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928a2c393f886c12fe587ec81fb5cfc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3455967323479283","authorIdStr":"3455967323479283"},"content":"敢做多中国，看来你想去要饭了","text":"敢做多中国，看来你想去要饭了","html":"敢做多中国，看来你想去要饭了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529304926667152,"gmtCreate":1770260964327,"gmtModify":1770260966559,"author":{"id":"4113710084411392","authorId":"4113710084411392","name":"价格投机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e93ce64f19a039ed4e90a716037e0d3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113710084411392","authorIdStr":"4113710084411392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"收到，做空黄金","listText":"收到，做空黄金","text":"收到，做空黄金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529304926667152","repostId":"2608442381","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608442381","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770163086,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608442381?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-04 07:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表，继续看好中美股市和金银铜","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608442381","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市和金银铜。去年以来，中金公司持续提示美联储停止缩表和开启扩表，在4月和年末得到验证。毕竟，维系金融稳定也是美联储的一大任务目标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。鉴于当前美元流动性体系运行规律和大财政趋势所形成的强约束，选择谁作为美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市(尤其被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>指出，去年4月对等关税、10月政府关门等多次流动性紧张问题以及今年初格陵兰岛争端带来的美债抛售潮已经越来越说明，日益扩大的美国财政融资需求和美国金融体系的稳健运行均高度依赖美联储“充裕流动性”体系的最终兜底，而在中期选举在即的情况下，紧缩财政和金融危机都不是特朗普想要看到的结果。</p><p>去年以来，中金公司持续提示美联储停止缩表和开启扩表，在4月和年末得到验证。虽然去年12月底美联储已开启扩表，流动性边际改善，但狭义流动性(准备金)仍远低于“充裕水平”的下限，美元流动性量价指标均显示仍处于疫情以来较紧张状态，中金公司认为这是近几天市场出现恐慌抛售的根本原因。债务压力、选举压力和金融市场稳定压力之下，选择谁做联储主席可能差别没有那么大，流动性趋势扩张可能是大概率事件。</p><h2 id=\"id_2951049242\">为什么难以撼动扩表</h2><p>自2008年金融危机以来，美联储资产负债表基本处在一个阶梯型上升的趋势。其根本原因在于，美联储建立起了一个基于“充裕流动性”(ample reserve)运行的货币政策体系。2008年后，市场长期充裕的流动性和超低利率极大程度上影响了金融业的融资行为，例如银行业内广泛依赖活期存款融资，而日益壮大的非银体系(如对冲基金)则很大程度上依赖隔夜回购市场。因此，当金融活动的规模扩大，市场上就需要有更大规模的超短期流动性(即准备金)来维持这一体系。而当流动性低于警戒线后(依据美联储测算出的充裕流动性规模，约占GDP的10%-11%)，金融市场便易发风险。</p><p>事实上，2019年以来的金融风险是发生在流动性接近或低于这一警戒线后(图表1)。当然，这也是沃什所认为的QE政策问题所在。但对于这种结构性难题，除非“大破”，否则很难“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002214\">大立</a>”。问题是，特朗普政府、美联储、美国企业民众(主街)和华尔街有多大魄力和勇气可以接受一场“大破”。毕竟，维系金融稳定也是美联储的一大任务目标。从历史经验来看，金融危机影响实体经济的周期长度往往久于对金融市场本身，如2007年次贷危机后，美国经济的衰退周期持续到了2009年，且之后复苏整体疲软，而金融市场本身则在2009年便实现了复苏。</p><p>真正使得当下美联储不得不常态化扩表的，是财政主导对货币政策的捆绑。如前所述，当前美国金融市场严重依赖回购融资，而美债又是回购市场的核心抵押品(图表3)。也就是说，如果财政发债无人承接，那么美债贬值将连带紧缩市场融资规模，并通过“抵押品乘数”(collateral multiplier)放大紧缩效果。因此，财政扩张+充裕流动性体系+QT的组合存在天然矛盾，QT也最终多是通过引爆美债-回购市场的风险(潜在系统性风险)迫使美联储下场重新QE救市而收场。2019年9月的回购市场风险、2020年3月的美债市场风险、乃至去年4月对等关税问题，及之后美联储在QT政策上的迅速转向，已经屡次证明了这一结果。2024年以来中金公司持续提示，在面临国内贫富差距问题和全球地缘与科技竞争的当下，美国财政紧缩的可能性比较低，特别是今年面临中期选举压力，特朗普扩张财政的迫切性有增无减。</p><h2 id=\"id_1485678019\">虚假独立性下的财政货币配合</h2><p>鉴于沃什是特朗普精挑细选出来的主席人选，中金公司估计大概率其会基本遵循特朗普团队施政的紧迫性次序。一如去年Miran当选FOMC理事前显示出严守美联储独立性，而上任后持续推动大幅降息一样，中金公司预计沃什的“鹰”在操作层面可能面临压力。赢得中期选举、在可预见的特朗普任期内实现制造业回流，便是最大的“政治正确”，货币继续配合财政降息、扩表(甚至YCC)。在此框架下，沃什可能同步推进对美国银行业的去监管，如完全取消SLR对MBS、美债的限制，以鼓励市场持债缓解美联储被迫QE的困境。长期来看，实现美国经济“脱虚向实”也并不意味着简单粗暴地打压美国金融业，特别是在金融危机可能对实体经济造成长期而深刻影响的情况下。正如去年以来贝森特持续喊话美联储关注地产等脆弱部门一样9[]，中金公司预计“脱虚向实”更多是货币配合财政向某些实体部门结构性放水，以更有效得刺激制造业回流、缓解家庭小企业融资负担。</p><p>落到资产，中金公司再次强掉今年财政、货币双宽松的预期不变，美国名义经济周期有望向上重启，美元流动性量价齐宽，将支撑全球风险资产和金银铜，尤其利好新兴市场(如仍被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。板块层面，在获得了美联储的支持后，特朗普可能进一步加速地缘格局重构，安全与韧性的重要性越发凸显，继续利好生产力提升(科技与工业)和资源自足两条主线。当然，持续的扩表可能进一步刺激金融机构投机行为，增加市场泡沫风险，短期内加大市场波动(如金银铜)，对未来的货币政策带来更大挑战。</p><p><strong>图表1：历史上流动性低于充裕水平时，金融危机易发</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d8ea1327c628fcecfcfde3986dd4db\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"477\"/></p><p>资料来源：Haver，FRED，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>图表2：美债隔夜回购融资已超过3万亿美元</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4423a1b28d497a80eb4def9dbc170d\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>资料来源：FRED，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>图表3：美债是回购市场的主要抵押品</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b892808a9ff3ffd7fc49904e5f1ab265\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>图表4：美国财政赤字率大概率维持高位</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4015895169c98fc7a1e58be84529c64d\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>资料来源：CRFB，CBO，中金公司研究部</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表，继续看好中美股市和金银铜</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表，继续看好中美股市和金银铜\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-04 07:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1401321.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月4日，中金公司发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。鉴于当前美元流动性体系运行规律和大财政趋势所形成的强约束，选择谁作为美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市(尤其被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。中金公司指出，去年4月对等关税...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1401321.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","COPP":"Sprott Copper Miners ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","HSI":"恒生指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1401321.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608442381","content_text":"2月4日，中金公司发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。鉴于当前美元流动性体系运行规律和大财政趋势所形成的强约束，选择谁作为美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市(尤其被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。中金公司指出，去年4月对等关税、10月政府关门等多次流动性紧张问题以及今年初格陵兰岛争端带来的美债抛售潮已经越来越说明，日益扩大的美国财政融资需求和美国金融体系的稳健运行均高度依赖美联储“充裕流动性”体系的最终兜底，而在中期选举在即的情况下，紧缩财政和金融危机都不是特朗普想要看到的结果。去年以来，中金公司持续提示美联储停止缩表和开启扩表，在4月和年末得到验证。虽然去年12月底美联储已开启扩表，流动性边际改善，但狭义流动性(准备金)仍远低于“充裕水平”的下限，美元流动性量价指标均显示仍处于疫情以来较紧张状态，中金公司认为这是近几天市场出现恐慌抛售的根本原因。债务压力、选举压力和金融市场稳定压力之下，选择谁做联储主席可能差别没有那么大，流动性趋势扩张可能是大概率事件。为什么难以撼动扩表自2008年金融危机以来，美联储资产负债表基本处在一个阶梯型上升的趋势。其根本原因在于，美联储建立起了一个基于“充裕流动性”(ample reserve)运行的货币政策体系。2008年后，市场长期充裕的流动性和超低利率极大程度上影响了金融业的融资行为，例如银行业内广泛依赖活期存款融资，而日益壮大的非银体系(如对冲基金)则很大程度上依赖隔夜回购市场。因此，当金融活动的规模扩大，市场上就需要有更大规模的超短期流动性(即准备金)来维持这一体系。而当流动性低于警戒线后(依据美联储测算出的充裕流动性规模，约占GDP的10%-11%)，金融市场便易发风险。事实上，2019年以来的金融风险是发生在流动性接近或低于这一警戒线后(图表1)。当然，这也是沃什所认为的QE政策问题所在。但对于这种结构性难题，除非“大破”，否则很难“大立”。问题是，特朗普政府、美联储、美国企业民众(主街)和华尔街有多大魄力和勇气可以接受一场“大破”。毕竟，维系金融稳定也是美联储的一大任务目标。从历史经验来看，金融危机影响实体经济的周期长度往往久于对金融市场本身，如2007年次贷危机后，美国经济的衰退周期持续到了2009年，且之后复苏整体疲软，而金融市场本身则在2009年便实现了复苏。真正使得当下美联储不得不常态化扩表的，是财政主导对货币政策的捆绑。如前所述，当前美国金融市场严重依赖回购融资，而美债又是回购市场的核心抵押品(图表3)。也就是说，如果财政发债无人承接，那么美债贬值将连带紧缩市场融资规模，并通过“抵押品乘数”(collateral 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGQ\">$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGQ\">$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527337185826096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":526978651836456,"gmtCreate":1769702559810,"gmtModify":1769702562837,"author":{"id":"4113710084411392","authorId":"4113710084411392","name":"价格投机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e93ce64f19a039ed4e90a716037e0d3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113710084411392","authorIdStr":"4113710084411392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a 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爸爸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533666623341472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529304926667152,"gmtCreate":1770260964327,"gmtModify":1770260966559,"author":{"id":"4113710084411392","authorId":"4113710084411392","name":"价格投机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e93ce64f19a039ed4e90a716037e0d3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113710084411392","idStr":"4113710084411392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"收到，做空黄金","listText":"收到，做空黄金","text":"收到，做空黄金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529304926667152","repostId":"2608442381","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608442381","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770163086,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608442381?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-04 07:58","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表，继续看好中美股市和金银铜","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608442381","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市和金银铜。去年以来，中金公司持续提示美联储停止缩表和开启扩表，在4月和年末得到验证。毕竟，维系金融稳定也是美联储的一大任务目标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。鉴于当前美元流动性体系运行规律和大财政趋势所形成的强约束，选择谁作为美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市(尤其被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>指出，去年4月对等关税、10月政府关门等多次流动性紧张问题以及今年初格陵兰岛争端带来的美债抛售潮已经越来越说明，日益扩大的美国财政融资需求和美国金融体系的稳健运行均高度依赖美联储“充裕流动性”体系的最终兜底，而在中期选举在即的情况下，紧缩财政和金融危机都不是特朗普想要看到的结果。</p><p>去年以来，中金公司持续提示美联储停止缩表和开启扩表，在4月和年末得到验证。虽然去年12月底美联储已开启扩表，流动性边际改善，但狭义流动性(准备金)仍远低于“充裕水平”的下限，美元流动性量价指标均显示仍处于疫情以来较紧张状态，中金公司认为这是近几天市场出现恐慌抛售的根本原因。债务压力、选举压力和金融市场稳定压力之下，选择谁做联储主席可能差别没有那么大，流动性趋势扩张可能是大概率事件。</p><h2 id=\"id_2951049242\">为什么难以撼动扩表</h2><p>自2008年金融危机以来，美联储资产负债表基本处在一个阶梯型上升的趋势。其根本原因在于，美联储建立起了一个基于“充裕流动性”(ample reserve)运行的货币政策体系。2008年后，市场长期充裕的流动性和超低利率极大程度上影响了金融业的融资行为，例如银行业内广泛依赖活期存款融资，而日益壮大的非银体系(如对冲基金)则很大程度上依赖隔夜回购市场。因此，当金融活动的规模扩大，市场上就需要有更大规模的超短期流动性(即准备金)来维持这一体系。而当流动性低于警戒线后(依据美联储测算出的充裕流动性规模，约占GDP的10%-11%)，金融市场便易发风险。</p><p>事实上，2019年以来的金融风险是发生在流动性接近或低于这一警戒线后(图表1)。当然，这也是沃什所认为的QE政策问题所在。但对于这种结构性难题，除非“大破”，否则很难“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002214\">大立</a>”。问题是，特朗普政府、美联储、美国企业民众(主街)和华尔街有多大魄力和勇气可以接受一场“大破”。毕竟，维系金融稳定也是美联储的一大任务目标。从历史经验来看，金融危机影响实体经济的周期长度往往久于对金融市场本身，如2007年次贷危机后，美国经济的衰退周期持续到了2009年，且之后复苏整体疲软，而金融市场本身则在2009年便实现了复苏。</p><p>真正使得当下美联储不得不常态化扩表的，是财政主导对货币政策的捆绑。如前所述，当前美国金融市场严重依赖回购融资，而美债又是回购市场的核心抵押品(图表3)。也就是说，如果财政发债无人承接，那么美债贬值将连带紧缩市场融资规模，并通过“抵押品乘数”(collateral multiplier)放大紧缩效果。因此，财政扩张+充裕流动性体系+QT的组合存在天然矛盾，QT也最终多是通过引爆美债-回购市场的风险(潜在系统性风险)迫使美联储下场重新QE救市而收场。2019年9月的回购市场风险、2020年3月的美债市场风险、乃至去年4月对等关税问题，及之后美联储在QT政策上的迅速转向，已经屡次证明了这一结果。2024年以来中金公司持续提示，在面临国内贫富差距问题和全球地缘与科技竞争的当下，美国财政紧缩的可能性比较低，特别是今年面临中期选举压力，特朗普扩张财政的迫切性有增无减。</p><h2 id=\"id_1485678019\">虚假独立性下的财政货币配合</h2><p>鉴于沃什是特朗普精挑细选出来的主席人选，中金公司估计大概率其会基本遵循特朗普团队施政的紧迫性次序。一如去年Miran当选FOMC理事前显示出严守美联储独立性，而上任后持续推动大幅降息一样，中金公司预计沃什的“鹰”在操作层面可能面临压力。赢得中期选举、在可预见的特朗普任期内实现制造业回流，便是最大的“政治正确”，货币继续配合财政降息、扩表(甚至YCC)。在此框架下，沃什可能同步推进对美国银行业的去监管，如完全取消SLR对MBS、美债的限制，以鼓励市场持债缓解美联储被迫QE的困境。长期来看，实现美国经济“脱虚向实”也并不意味着简单粗暴地打压美国金融业，特别是在金融危机可能对实体经济造成长期而深刻影响的情况下。正如去年以来贝森特持续喊话美联储关注地产等脆弱部门一样9[]，中金公司预计“脱虚向实”更多是货币配合财政向某些实体部门结构性放水，以更有效得刺激制造业回流、缓解家庭小企业融资负担。</p><p>落到资产，中金公司再次强掉今年财政、货币双宽松的预期不变，美国名义经济周期有望向上重启，美元流动性量价齐宽，将支撑全球风险资产和金银铜，尤其利好新兴市场(如仍被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。板块层面，在获得了美联储的支持后，特朗普可能进一步加速地缘格局重构，安全与韧性的重要性越发凸显，继续利好生产力提升(科技与工业)和资源自足两条主线。当然，持续的扩表可能进一步刺激金融机构投机行为，增加市场泡沫风险，短期内加大市场波动(如金银铜)，对未来的货币政策带来更大挑战。</p><p><strong>图表1：历史上流动性低于充裕水平时，金融危机易发</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d8ea1327c628fcecfcfde3986dd4db\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"477\"/></p><p>资料来源：Haver，FRED，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>图表2：美债隔夜回购融资已超过3万亿美元</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4423a1b28d497a80eb4def9dbc170d\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>资料来源：FRED，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>图表3：美债是回购市场的主要抵押品</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b892808a9ff3ffd7fc49904e5f1ab265\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>图表4：美国财政赤字率大概率维持高位</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4015895169c98fc7a1e58be84529c64d\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>资料来源：CRFB，CBO，中金公司研究部</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表，继续看好中美股市和金银铜</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金：沃什难撼美联储扩表，继续看好中美股市和金银铜\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-04 07:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1401321.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月4日，中金公司发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。鉴于当前美元流动性体系运行规律和大财政趋势所形成的强约束，选择谁作为美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市(尤其被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。中金公司指出，去年4月对等关税...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1401321.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","COPP":"Sprott Copper Miners ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","HSI":"恒生指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1401321.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608442381","content_text":"2月4日，中金公司发布研究报告称，当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什充任下一任美联储主席，引发了市场对其缩表言论的担忧。鉴于当前美元流动性体系运行规律和大财政趋势所形成的强约束，选择谁作为美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张。全球资产的牛市有持续的可能，今年内继续看好受益于美元流动性趋势性改善的中美股市(尤其被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。中金公司指出，去年4月对等关税、10月政府关门等多次流动性紧张问题以及今年初格陵兰岛争端带来的美债抛售潮已经越来越说明，日益扩大的美国财政融资需求和美国金融体系的稳健运行均高度依赖美联储“充裕流动性”体系的最终兜底，而在中期选举在即的情况下，紧缩财政和金融危机都不是特朗普想要看到的结果。去年以来，中金公司持续提示美联储停止缩表和开启扩表，在4月和年末得到验证。虽然去年12月底美联储已开启扩表，流动性边际改善，但狭义流动性(准备金)仍远低于“充裕水平”的下限，美元流动性量价指标均显示仍处于疫情以来较紧张状态，中金公司认为这是近几天市场出现恐慌抛售的根本原因。债务压力、选举压力和金融市场稳定压力之下，选择谁做联储主席可能差别没有那么大，流动性趋势扩张可能是大概率事件。为什么难以撼动扩表自2008年金融危机以来，美联储资产负债表基本处在一个阶梯型上升的趋势。其根本原因在于，美联储建立起了一个基于“充裕流动性”(ample reserve)运行的货币政策体系。2008年后，市场长期充裕的流动性和超低利率极大程度上影响了金融业的融资行为，例如银行业内广泛依赖活期存款融资，而日益壮大的非银体系(如对冲基金)则很大程度上依赖隔夜回购市场。因此，当金融活动的规模扩大，市场上就需要有更大规模的超短期流动性(即准备金)来维持这一体系。而当流动性低于警戒线后(依据美联储测算出的充裕流动性规模，约占GDP的10%-11%)，金融市场便易发风险。事实上，2019年以来的金融风险是发生在流动性接近或低于这一警戒线后(图表1)。当然，这也是沃什所认为的QE政策问题所在。但对于这种结构性难题，除非“大破”，否则很难“大立”。问题是，特朗普政府、美联储、美国企业民众(主街)和华尔街有多大魄力和勇气可以接受一场“大破”。毕竟，维系金融稳定也是美联储的一大任务目标。从历史经验来看，金融危机影响实体经济的周期长度往往久于对金融市场本身，如2007年次贷危机后，美国经济的衰退周期持续到了2009年，且之后复苏整体疲软，而金融市场本身则在2009年便实现了复苏。真正使得当下美联储不得不常态化扩表的，是财政主导对货币政策的捆绑。如前所述，当前美国金融市场严重依赖回购融资，而美债又是回购市场的核心抵押品(图表3)。也就是说，如果财政发债无人承接，那么美债贬值将连带紧缩市场融资规模，并通过“抵押品乘数”(collateral multiplier)放大紧缩效果。因此，财政扩张+充裕流动性体系+QT的组合存在天然矛盾，QT也最终多是通过引爆美债-回购市场的风险(潜在系统性风险)迫使美联储下场重新QE救市而收场。2019年9月的回购市场风险、2020年3月的美债市场风险、乃至去年4月对等关税问题，及之后美联储在QT政策上的迅速转向，已经屡次证明了这一结果。2024年以来中金公司持续提示，在面临国内贫富差距问题和全球地缘与科技竞争的当下，美国财政紧缩的可能性比较低，特别是今年面临中期选举压力，特朗普扩张财政的迫切性有增无减。虚假独立性下的财政货币配合鉴于沃什是特朗普精挑细选出来的主席人选，中金公司估计大概率其会基本遵循特朗普团队施政的紧迫性次序。一如去年Miran当选FOMC理事前显示出严守美联储独立性，而上任后持续推动大幅降息一样，中金公司预计沃什的“鹰”在操作层面可能面临压力。赢得中期选举、在可预见的特朗普任期内实现制造业回流，便是最大的“政治正确”，货币继续配合财政降息、扩表(甚至YCC)。在此框架下，沃什可能同步推进对美国银行业的去监管，如完全取消SLR对MBS、美债的限制，以鼓励市场持债缓解美联储被迫QE的困境。长期来看，实现美国经济“脱虚向实”也并不意味着简单粗暴地打压美国金融业，特别是在金融危机可能对实体经济造成长期而深刻影响的情况下。正如去年以来贝森特持续喊话美联储关注地产等脆弱部门一样9[]，中金公司预计“脱虚向实”更多是货币配合财政向某些实体部门结构性放水，以更有效得刺激制造业回流、缓解家庭小企业融资负担。落到资产，中金公司再次强掉今年财政、货币双宽松的预期不变，美国名义经济周期有望向上重启，美元流动性量价齐宽，将支撑全球风险资产和金银铜，尤其利好新兴市场(如仍被全球主动资金显著低配的中国股市)和金银铜。板块层面，在获得了美联储的支持后，特朗普可能进一步加速地缘格局重构，安全与韧性的重要性越发凸显，继续利好生产力提升(科技与工业)和资源自足两条主线。当然，持续的扩表可能进一步刺激金融机构投机行为，增加市场泡沫风险，短期内加大市场波动(如金银铜)，对未来的货币政策带来更大挑战。图表1：历史上流动性低于充裕水平时，金融危机易发资料来源：Haver，FRED，中金公司研究部图表2：美债隔夜回购融资已超过3万亿美元资料来源：FRED，中金公司研究部图表3：美债是回购市场的主要抵押品资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部图表4：美国财政赤字率大概率维持高位资料来源：CRFB，CBO，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MGCmain":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"MHGmain":2,"PAmain":2,"MNQ2612":2,"NQmain":2,"HGmain":2,"GCmain":2,".IXIC":2,"PLmain":2,"SILmain":2,"HSI":2,"HTImain":2,"HSTECH":2,"NDX":2,"MGC2602":2,".SPX":2,"XAGUSD.FOREX":2,"HSImain":2,"SIL2603":2,"COPP":1,"MNQ2603":2,"YMmain":2,"SImain":2,"MNQmain":2,"ESmain":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}