我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity的个人主页 - 老虎社区

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

我就不要5000万美元💵

IP属地：山西

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0勋章

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

06-11 17:04

冷静。哪个两万亿市值的企业还在亏钱？

SpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

2025-06-28

$Desktop Metal Inc(DM)$

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

01-30

$Desktop Metal Inc(DM)$ 从王老师变老王，从心中的神坛，变成也不过如此

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

2022-05-13

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$可别退市，我的命都交给你了，退市咱就天台见，[喷血]

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

05-29

$美光科技(MU)$

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

2022-04-28

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$老子快绷不住骂你了

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

06-11 07:03

赞成。

市场消息：美参议员写信呼吁证交会推迟SpaceX的IPO

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

2022-05-08

$Cenntro Electric Group Limited(CENN)$实属骗子公司，进去的，倒霉吧

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

04-10

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 能不能跌到50？

我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity

2022-12-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 继续跌，跌到100。那才爽啊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Ives将此次IPO定性为&#34;AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻&#34;，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。</p><h2 id=\"ipo\">史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。</strong>公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的&#34;圣杯&#34;式整合。</p><h2 id=\"53\">空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，<strong>意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的&#34;期权溢价&#34;——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens将其基准情景定义为&#34;最小可行产品&#34;，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。</p><h2 id=\"id_1255959513\">历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃&#34;回落宿命&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，<strong>当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。</strong>Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。&#34;IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，&#34;Ritter告诉CBS新闻，&#34;因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的&#34;成熟型&#34;公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。&#34;我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，&#34;他表示，&#34;也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"3a4094e4\">散户涌入与指数被动买盘</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，<strong>散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。&#34;有大量资金在追踪这些指数，&#34;Grelck说，&#34;随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"9b6f4062\">锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens认为，<strong>这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。</strong>即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。&#34;</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-11 16:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">史上最大IPO即将登场，但围绕其定价的争议同样史无前例。乐观者将其比作英伟达早年的历史性入场窗口，悲观者则以财务模型推断，当前定价已高估逾半。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX定于本周五（6月12日）在纳斯达克以代码SPCX挂牌交易，发行价135美元，计划募资约750亿美元，上市后估值高达1.77万亿美元，将创下全球IPO规模之最。围绕这只股票，华尔街正陷入罕见的尖锐分歧——乐观派将其视为一代人难得一遇的入场机会，悲观派则认为投资者正在为埃隆·马斯克的宏大愿景支付高达72美元的&#34;期权溢价&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush Securities高级分析师Dan Ives将此次IPO定性为&#34;AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻&#34;，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。</p><h2 id=\"ipo\">史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。</strong>公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的&#34;圣杯&#34;式整合。</p><h2 id=\"53\">空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，<strong>意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的&#34;期权溢价&#34;——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens将其基准情景定义为&#34;最小可行产品&#34;，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。</p><h2 id=\"id_1255959513\">历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃&#34;回落宿命&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，<strong>当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。</strong>Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。&#34;IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，&#34;Ritter告诉CBS新闻，&#34;因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的&#34;成熟型&#34;公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。&#34;我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，&#34;他表示，&#34;也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"3a4094e4\">散户涌入与指数被动买盘</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，<strong>散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。&#34;有大量资金在追踪这些指数，&#34;Grelck说，&#34;随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"9b6f4062\">锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens认为，<strong>这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。</strong>即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。&#34;</p></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"LU0143551892.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU2954938101.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A8P\" (SGD) INC","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2999663052.SGD":"T 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774413","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642407785","content_text":"多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。史上最大IPO即将登场，但围绕其定价的争议同样史无前例。乐观者将其比作英伟达早年的历史性入场窗口，悲观者则以财务模型推断，当前定价已高估逾半。SpaceX定于本周五（6月12日）在纳斯达克以代码SPCX挂牌交易，发行价135美元，计划募资约750亿美元，上市后估值高达1.77万亿美元，将创下全球IPO规模之最。围绕这只股票，华尔街正陷入罕见的尖锐分歧——乐观派将其视为一代人难得一遇的入场机会，悲观派则认为投资者正在为埃隆·马斯克的宏大愿景支付高达72美元的\"期权溢价\"。Wedbush Securities高级分析师Dan Ives将此次IPO定性为\"AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻\"，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的\"圣杯\"式整合。空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的\"期权溢价\"——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。Owens将其基准情景定义为\"最小可行产品\"，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃\"回落宿命\"尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。\"IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，\"Ritter告诉CBS新闻，\"因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。\"据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的\"成熟型\"公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。\"我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，\"他表示，\"也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。\"散户涌入与指数被动买盘此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。\"有大量资金在追踪这些指数，\"Grelck说，\"随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。\"锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。Owens认为，这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：\"我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCF":0.6,"SPCX":2,"SPCH":0.6,"LOFF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573861654394672,"gmtCreate":1781132592593,"gmtModify":1781142050086,"author":{"id":"4103012405740810","authorId":"4103012405740810","name":"我就不要5000万美元Taoist 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22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：美参议员写信呼吁证交会推迟SpaceX的IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181933077","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月10日，据纽约时报报道，市场正密切关注SpaceX将于周五开始公开交易，因为华尔街预计这家马斯克旗下的火箭与AI巨头将从热切的投资者手中筹集超740亿美元的资金。但根据最新报道，美参议员沃伦是最新一位对IPO持怀疑态度的人，她指出IPO可能对散户投资者构成潜在危险。沃伦周二致信美国证交会主席阿特金斯，希望该委员会能推迟SpaceX的IPO。她在信中写道，此次IPO“似乎会给普通投资者及其退休储蓄带来重大风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月10日，据纽约时报报道，市场正密切关注SpaceX将于周五开始公开交易，因为华尔街预计这家马斯克旗下的火箭与AI巨头将从热切的投资者手中筹集超740亿美元的资金。但根据最新报道，美参议员沃伦是最新一位对IPO持怀疑态度的人，她指出IPO可能对散户投资者构成潜在危险。沃伦周二致信美国证交会主席阿特金斯，希望该委员会能推迟SpaceX的IPO。她在信中写道，此次IPO“似乎会给普通投资者及其退休储蓄带来重大风险”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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22:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月10日，据纽约时报报道，市场正密切关注SpaceX将于周五开始公开交易，因为华尔街预计这家马斯克旗下的火箭与AI巨头将从热切的投资者手中筹集超740亿美元的资金。但根据最新报道，美参议员沃伦是最新一位对IPO持怀疑态度的人，她指出IPO可能对散户投资者构成潜在危险。沃伦周二致信美国证交会主席阿特金斯，希望该委员会能推迟SpaceX的IPO。她在信中写道，此次IPO“似乎会给普通投资者及其退休储蓄带来重大风险”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d341c06c6ee21d1115fabb535090081","relate_stocks":{"SNK":"GraniteShares 2x Short SpaceX Daily ETF","SPCU":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF","SPCF":"ProShares Ultra SpaceX","SPCH":"Leverage Shares 2X Long SPCX Daily ETF","LOFF":"Direxion Daily SpaceX Bull 2X ETF","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","SPAL":"GraniteShares 2x Long SpaceX Daily 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cms-style=\"font-L\">一个指数能不能涨，要看权重股涨不涨，而创业板的权重，经历过很多变动</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">曾经的创业板，是猪创板，主要看<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300498\">温氏股份</a></span><span></span>涨不涨，而后随着<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a></span><span></span>上市，变成了电池创业板，涨不涨主要看宁德时代，直到现在也是如此。（下方图片来源于<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a></span><span></span>问财，查看详情）</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230727/322/w728h394/20230727/97aa-57500bb42fdab7a440ca0eae4ae9903c.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">所以，宁德时代的这份半年报，很重要，尤其是，新能源板块目前是所有行业内，为数不多增长确定性最高的行业，而宁德时代的这份半年报，也确实没有出幺蛾子，非常亮眼。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230727/266/w670h396/20230727/7cf0-2e3e8c3d0fb8c4ab119e29ffdb90e071.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">首先，扣非归母净利润同比148%，什么概念呢？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">去年赚了70亿，今年赚了175亿，炸裂。净利润如果说涨了，但是现金流没有增加，那么可能会是有订单没现金，但是同时，经营现金流竟然也增长了98%</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">这就说明了，不单单有订单，还收得到现金，基本上就是个卖方市场格局了，换句话说就是：我宁德时代的规矩就是规矩！</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">看完简单的数据，我们再继续看报表</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">其中生产数据，是市场比较关注的点</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230727/53/w667h186/20230727/ae63-c0b9b582b0ed770c8d85fc9e4d64a730.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">其中最亮眼的，还不是动力电池，其实这份报表，最令我眼前一亮的，是储能业务。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">一直以来新能源行业，其实是有一个比较明确的短板的：电能的储存。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">首先我们的发电，主要依靠几种方式：火电，水电，风电，光电，以及核电。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">火电是相对比较好调控的，因此也是我们最主要的发电方式之一，而其他各种方式，都有储能的问题，电在电网中，是需要传输消纳的，没有储能的情况下，就需要你发多少电就用多少电，实在用不了的只能浪费。原本呢，用电需求只是工业用电民间用电啥的，就还好，还能调控，如今风光电占比增加，同时车用电也不短扩大占比，那么自然储能的需求就很大了，不然你的电网撑不住</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">在此基础上，储能的大幅发展，几乎是必然的，但是谁能吃到这个份额，才是重点。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230727/87/w696h191/20230727/e7de-eccb6439d9084b7550c79954ffefe7f7.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">而至少从目前来看，宁德时代是吃到了这波红利的，在全球市占第一的情况下，依然保持了翻倍增长。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">并且，并不单纯的窝里横，而是全球通杀。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230727/513/w944h369/20230727/3ee1-15d9e037c208e6cc13eb61674e91d44e.png\"/><span></span></div><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230727/536/w998h338/20230727/e9e7-709d4f0decf995f1f2ee43ce7774fe34.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">境外收入占比，也是接近翻倍了</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">只能说，宁德时代的这份答卷，就真的做到了：国内外通杀，风靡全球男女老少。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">并且也没有说故步自封。研发费用上升也是杠杠的</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230727/167/w907h60/20230727/6900-b5dc71e668c712cfb3290cb93f350eb0.png\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\">那有没有忧虑呢？</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">有的，来自原材料与<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a></span><span></span>。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">先说原材料</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">最主要的原材料问题，是碳酸锂<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">碳酸锂的价格已经从最高价60万左右跌到现在20万一吨，疯狂增厚了宁德时代的利润</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">但是，上游的材料降价，始终还是会传导的，如果后续随着碳酸锂价格的回暖，这部分成本是有可能增加的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">其次，就是比亚迪了</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">不得不说，比亚迪相比于宁德时代，优势在于确实下场做车，上游电池电芯电控，下游零配件，终端车，都是比亚迪自己内部循环，把控程度很好，也不需要看别人眼色，增长率也非常夸张。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">虽然目前新能源行业的渗透率还在上升，因此他们的正面对抗还不明显，但是随着渗透率的进一步提升，他们的正面对抗就会逐步增加，并且刀片电池，其实也是对宁德时代造成了不少挑战的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">不过至少现在，宁德时代的这份报表忧虑不大，更多的是优秀。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">对比目前宁德时代的动态市盈率，24.4倍，这个位置怎么看都不算贵。</font></p>\n<div>\n<span>现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报季 | 宁德时代，电车储能双第一，国内外通杀，风靡全球男女老少</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报季 | 宁德时代，电车储能双第一，国内外通杀，风靡全球男女老少\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-27 13:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2023-07-27/doc-imzeaywv7554847.shtml><strong>同花顺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个指数能不能涨，要看权重股涨不涨，而创业板的权重，经历过很多变动曾经的创业板，是猪创板，主要看温氏股份涨不涨，而后随着宁德时代上市，变成了电池创业板，涨不涨主要看宁德时代，直到现在也是如此。（下方图片来源于同花顺问财，查看详情）所以，宁德时代的这份半年报，很重要，尤其是，新能源板块目前是所有行业内，为数不多增长确定性最高的行业，而宁德时代的这份半年报，也确实没有出幺蛾子，非常亮眼。首先，扣非归母...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2023-07-27/doc-imzeaywv7554847.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","JKS":"晶科能源"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2023-07-27/doc-imzeaywv7554847.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2354562723","content_text":"一个指数能不能涨，要看权重股涨不涨，而创业板的权重，经历过很多变动曾经的创业板，是猪创板，主要看温氏股份涨不涨，而后随着宁德时代上市，变成了电池创业板，涨不涨主要看宁德时代，直到现在也是如此。（下方图片来源于同花顺问财，查看详情）所以，宁德时代的这份半年报，很重要，尤其是，新能源板块目前是所有行业内，为数不多增长确定性最高的行业，而宁德时代的这份半年报，也确实没有出幺蛾子，非常亮眼。首先，扣非归母净利润同比148%，什么概念呢？去年赚了70亿，今年赚了175亿，炸裂。净利润如果说涨了，但是现金流没有增加，那么可能会是有订单没现金，但是同时，经营现金流竟然也增长了98%这就说明了，不单单有订单，还收得到现金，基本上就是个卖方市场格局了，换句话说就是：我宁德时代的规矩就是规矩！看完简单的数据，我们再继续看报表其中生产数据，是市场比较关注的点其中最亮眼的，还不是动力电池，其实这份报表，最令我眼前一亮的，是储能业务。一直以来新能源行业，其实是有一个比较明确的短板的：电能的储存。首先我们的发电，主要依靠几种方式：火电，水电，风电，光电，以及核电。火电是相对比较好调控的，因此也是我们最主要的发电方式之一，而其他各种方式，都有储能的问题，电在电网中，是需要传输消纳的，没有储能的情况下，就需要你发多少电就用多少电，实在用不了的只能浪费。原本呢，用电需求只是工业用电民间用电啥的，就还好，还能调控，如今风光电占比增加，同时车用电也不短扩大占比，那么自然储能的需求就很大了，不然你的电网撑不住在此基础上，储能的大幅发展，几乎是必然的，但是谁能吃到这个份额，才是重点。而至少从目前来看，宁德时代是吃到了这波红利的，在全球市占第一的情况下，依然保持了翻倍增长。并且，并不单纯的窝里横，而是全球通杀。境外收入占比，也是接近翻倍了只能说，宁德时代的这份答卷，就真的做到了：国内外通杀，风靡全球男女老少。并且也没有说故步自封。研发费用上升也是杠杠的那有没有忧虑呢？有的，来自原材料与比亚迪。先说原材料最主要的原材料问题，是碳酸锂碳酸锂的价格已经从最高价60万左右跌到现在20万一吨，疯狂增厚了宁德时代的利润但是，上游的材料降价，始终还是会传导的，如果后续随着碳酸锂价格的回暖，这部分成本是有可能增加的。其次，就是比亚迪了不得不说，比亚迪相比于宁德时代，优势在于确实下场做车，上游电池电芯电控，下游零配件，终端车，都是比亚迪自己内部循环，把控程度很好，也不需要看别人眼色，增长率也非常夸张。虽然目前新能源行业的渗透率还在上升，因此他们的正面对抗还不明显，但是随着渗透率的进一步提升，他们的正面对抗就会逐步增加，并且刀片电池，其实也是对宁德时代造成了不少挑战的。不过至少现在，宁德时代的这份报表忧虑不大，更多的是优秀。对比目前宁德时代的动态市盈率，24.4倍，这个位置怎么看都不算贵。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":1,"JKS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187168833925280,"gmtCreate":1686719473433,"gmtModify":1686719475696,"author":{"id":"4103012405740810","authorId":"4103012405740810","name":"我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa9ba5dd1e4e1f2bd15226aa249ab64","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103012405740810","authorIdStr":"4103012405740810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说的很大，但是不细。没用。老黄发现用GPU训练人工智能比CPU更符合算法，CPU处理复杂的事，GPU善于做简单但是繁重的工作。符合人工智能的特点，也就是弱人工智能比人强的特点，然后收取很少费用让高校专门做研究用，让人们觉得确实比英特尔的好用，之后才普及开。到了人工智能时代就起飞了，现在还有虚拟现实工厂，都是老黄在元宇宙来之前埋的种子，","listText":"说的很大，但是不细。没用。老黄发现用GPU训练人工智能比CPU更符合算法，CPU处理复杂的事，GPU善于做简单但是繁重的工作。符合人工智能的特点，也就是弱人工智能比人强的特点，然后收取很少费用让高校专门做研究用，让人们觉得确实比英特尔的好用，之后才普及开。到了人工智能时代就起飞了，现在还有虚拟现实工厂，都是老黄在元宇宙来之前埋的种子，","text":"说的很大，但是不细。没用。老黄发现用GPU训练人工智能比CPU更符合算法，CPU处理复杂的事，GPU善于做简单但是繁重的工作。符合人工智能的特点，也就是弱人工智能比人强的特点，然后收取很少费用让高校专门做研究用，让人们觉得确实比英特尔的好用，之后才普及开。到了人工智能时代就起飞了，现在还有虚拟现实工厂，都是老黄在元宇宙来之前埋的种子，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187168833925280","repostId":"1136875021","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653827634,"gmtCreate":1680766389028,"gmtModify":1680766390565,"author":{"id":"4103012405740810","authorId":"4103012405740810","name":"我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa9ba5dd1e4e1f2bd15226aa249ab64","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103012405740810","authorIdStr":"4103012405740810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你是怕人看了？用红色字体？","listText":"你是怕人看了？用红色字体？","text":"你是怕人看了？用红色字体？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653827634","repostId":"1193322916","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193322916","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680751385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193322916?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-06 11:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权大单 | 空头报告来袭，美股最火AI股重挫！才安静没几天，美国又一区域银行大跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193322916","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美东时间周三（4月5日），期权市场总成交量达35,378,919张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；美国电车股继续全线下跌，特斯拉本周已跌10%；空头报告+各国政府针对AI的禁令，重挫美股最火AI","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>摘要：美东时间周三（4月5日），期权市场总成交量达35,378,919张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；美国电车股继续全线下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>本周已跌10%；空头报告+各国政府针对AI的禁令，重挫美股最火AI股。</strong></blockquote><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>美东时间周三（4月5日），经济衰退担忧成为主旋律，美股三大指数涨跌不一。美国3月ADP就业数据不及预期、3月ISM非制造业指数意外大跌，显示出美国经济增长正走向急剧放缓或衰退的潜在迹象。截至收盘，道指涨80.34点，涨幅为0.24%，报33482.72点；纳指跌129.47点，跌幅为1.07%，报11996.86点；标普500指数跌10.22点，跌幅为0.25%，报4090.38点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ef6a0e52618952d359804770df166b\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"147\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p>周三，期权市场总成交量达35,378,919张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a9b769abd0818a360f911ca9aa0863e\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1808\" tg-height=\"390\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交728.2万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比61%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e306d67cf88e85b1984f7f058b97cd\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1616\" tg-height=\"405\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05573bd546e1619eda32d0e64464ac7b\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1420\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><blockquote><strong>美国电车股继续全线下跌，特斯拉本周已跌10%</strong></blockquote><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>周三跌超3%，报185.52美元。期权合约成交200.8万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的60%。2023年4月6日到期行权价为190美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为139,636张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f0909a550771c850ee300d64b211b4\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">对未来前景的担忧，叠加“琢磨不透”的退税政策及衰退预期，4月的美股电车股正被逐步压垮。</span></strong></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">媒体分析认为，隔夜电动车股的走势不能完全归咎于市场，更重要的是，多位汽车公司高管在本周美国银行汽车会议上的发言，让投资者大失所望，未来对电动汽车销量的悲观预期，与一再生变的税收抵免让投资者们 “选择离开”。</span></p><p><strong>美国电话电报</strong>周三上涨1.22%，报19.88美元。期权合约成交105.8万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的98%。2023年4月21日到期行权价为18美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为316,445张。同时，投资者需注意，该公司今日将除息。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/892b12ae5bd16258b875537464d88c54\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>三、异动观察</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470c0e575d3fdc79cec4be42af729927\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1721\" tg-height=\"543\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><blockquote><strong>美股最火AI股重挫</strong></blockquote><p><strong>C3.ai周三跌超15%，报21.09美元。</strong>2023年4月6日到期行权价为20美元<strong>看跌期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为15,776张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4e27a6e81ccc150760c79efd25d1ac5\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">消息方面：令市场始料未及，一份关于C3.ai的空头报告打破了“一切美好”,令市场始料未及。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Kerrisdale Capital上个月发布了一份关于该公司的空头报告，并在4月致函该公司的审计师——德勤，强调其对C3.ai涉嫌财务造假问题的担忧。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Sahm Adrangi称：该公司使用高度激进的会计手段来夸大其损益表指标，以满足卖方分析师对收入和某些利润指标的估计，并掩盖其基础业务的显著恶化趋势。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Kerrisdale在其网站上发布称，该公司将与定制软件生产相关的成本计入研发而非收入成本，以提高利润率。根据这一判断，这是C3.ai用来将自己展示为高利润的软件即服务业务而不是基于低利润咨询的会计手段之一。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">各国政府针对AI的禁令</span></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">祸不单行，各国政府接连颁布AI禁令，重挫整个AI赛道，也使C3.ai的处境“雪上加霜”。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">欧洲率先发布禁令。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">上周意大利对ChatGPT的禁令，掀起了一轮针对OpenAI的监管风暴，德国监管机构跟进，表示正在考虑暂时禁用ChatGPT，法国、爱尔兰、西班牙等欧洲国家也紧随其后，开始考虑对AI聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>采取更严格的监管。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">4月3日周一，德国联邦数据保护专员发言人称，出于数据保护方面的考虑，可能会暂时禁止在德国使用ChatGPT。该发言人称，是否决定禁止将由德国联邦数据保护机构研判后决定。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">国白宫官员表示，美国总统拜登将于周二在白宫与科技顾问举行会议，讨论人工智能（AI）给人类、社会和国家安全带来的“风险和机遇”。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">有媒体报道称，白宫官员表示，拜登将讨论保护权利和安全的重要性，以确保负责任的创新和适当的保障措施。白宫将呼吁国会通过隐私法，以保护孩子，并限制科技公司收集所有人的个人数据。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">媒体报道策划加拿大隐私专员办公室（OPC）4月4日宣布开始就涉及“指控OpenAI未经同意收集、使用和披露个人信息”的投诉进行调查。</span></p><blockquote><strong>才安静没几天，美国又一区域银行大跌</strong></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">阿莱恩斯西部银行</a>周三跌超12%，报29.37美元。2023年4月6日到期行权价为30美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为7,147张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e4439211db6afcfdb3924a5c4daead\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">促使该银行股价大跌的是原因是，4月4日周二盘后，这家区域性银行更新了其财务披露信息，但未透露更多有关其存款余额的信息。</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Jefferies的分析师Casey Haire认为：投资者可能会认为，该银行在存款余额方面的数据不尽人意，所以才选择不披露相关数据。这是该银行自3月10日以来的第四次更新财务数据，也是唯一一次没有明确披露存款数据的更新。</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">在上个月美国发生区域性银行危机之后，投资者一直关注各家银行的存款余额指标。</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权大单 | 空头报告来袭，美股最火AI股重挫！才安静没几天，美国又一区域银行大跌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权大单 | 空头报告来袭，美股最火AI股重挫！才安静没几天，美国又一区域银行大跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-04-06 11:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>摘要：美东时间周三（4月5日），期权市场总成交量达35,378,919张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；美国电车股继续全线下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>本周已跌10%；空头报告+各国政府针对AI的禁令，重挫美股最火AI股。</strong></blockquote><p><strong>一、市场概览</strong></p><p>美东时间周三（4月5日），经济衰退担忧成为主旋律，美股三大指数涨跌不一。美国3月ADP就业数据不及预期、3月ISM非制造业指数意外大跌，显示出美国经济增长正走向急剧放缓或衰退的潜在迹象。截至收盘，道指涨80.34点，涨幅为0.24%，报33482.72点；纳指跌129.47点，跌幅为1.07%，报11996.86点；标普500指数跌10.22点，跌幅为0.25%，报4090.38点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ef6a0e52618952d359804770df166b\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"147\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><p>周三，期权市场总成交量达35,378,919张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a9b769abd0818a360f911ca9aa0863e\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1808\" tg-height=\"390\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p>标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交728.2万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比61%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e306d67cf88e85b1984f7f058b97cd\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1616\" tg-height=\"405\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>二、期权成交总量TOP10</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05573bd546e1619eda32d0e64464ac7b\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1420\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><blockquote><strong>美国电车股继续全线下跌，特斯拉本周已跌10%</strong></blockquote><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>周三跌超3%，报185.52美元。期权合约成交200.8万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的60%。2023年4月6日到期行权价为190美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为139,636张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f0909a550771c850ee300d64b211b4\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"269\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">对未来前景的担忧，叠加“琢磨不透”的退税政策及衰退预期，4月的美股电车股正被逐步压垮。</span></strong></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">媒体分析认为，隔夜电动车股的走势不能完全归咎于市场，更重要的是，多位汽车公司高管在本周美国银行汽车会议上的发言，让投资者大失所望，未来对电动汽车销量的悲观预期，与一再生变的税收抵免让投资者们 “选择离开”。</span></p><p><strong>美国电话电报</strong>周三上涨1.22%，报19.88美元。期权合约成交105.8万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的98%。2023年4月21日到期行权价为18美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为316,445张。同时，投资者需注意，该公司今日将除息。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/892b12ae5bd16258b875537464d88c54\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1644\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><strong>三、异动观察</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470c0e575d3fdc79cec4be42af729927\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1721\" tg-height=\"543\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><blockquote><strong>美股最火AI股重挫</strong></blockquote><p><strong>C3.ai周三跌超15%，报21.09美元。</strong>2023年4月6日到期行权价为20美元<strong>看跌期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为15,776张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4e27a6e81ccc150760c79efd25d1ac5\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">消息方面：令市场始料未及，一份关于C3.ai的空头报告打破了“一切美好”,令市场始料未及。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Kerrisdale Capital上个月发布了一份关于该公司的空头报告，并在4月致函该公司的审计师——德勤，强调其对C3.ai涉嫌财务造假问题的担忧。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Sahm Adrangi称：该公司使用高度激进的会计手段来夸大其损益表指标，以满足卖方分析师对收入和某些利润指标的估计，并掩盖其基础业务的显著恶化趋势。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Kerrisdale在其网站上发布称，该公司将与定制软件生产相关的成本计入研发而非收入成本，以提高利润率。根据这一判断，这是C3.ai用来将自己展示为高利润的软件即服务业务而不是基于低利润咨询的会计手段之一。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">各国政府针对AI的禁令</span></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">祸不单行，各国政府接连颁布AI禁令，重挫整个AI赛道，也使C3.ai的处境“雪上加霜”。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">欧洲率先发布禁令。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">上周意大利对ChatGPT的禁令，掀起了一轮针对OpenAI的监管风暴，德国监管机构跟进，表示正在考虑暂时禁用ChatGPT，法国、爱尔兰、西班牙等欧洲国家也紧随其后，开始考虑对AI聊天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>采取更严格的监管。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">4月3日周一，德国联邦数据保护专员发言人称，出于数据保护方面的考虑，可能会暂时禁止在德国使用ChatGPT。该发言人称，是否决定禁止将由德国联邦数据保护机构研判后决定。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">国白宫官员表示，美国总统拜登将于周二在白宫与科技顾问举行会议，讨论人工智能（AI）给人类、社会和国家安全带来的“风险和机遇”。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">有媒体报道称，白宫官员表示，拜登将讨论保护权利和安全的重要性，以确保负责任的创新和适当的保障措施。白宫将呼吁国会通过隐私法，以保护孩子，并限制科技公司收集所有人的个人数据。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">媒体报道策划加拿大隐私专员办公室（OPC）4月4日宣布开始就涉及“指控OpenAI未经同意收集、使用和披露个人信息”的投诉进行调查。</span></p><blockquote><strong>才安静没几天，美国又一区域银行大跌</strong></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">阿莱恩斯西部银行</a>周三跌超12%，报29.37美元。2023年4月6日到期行权价为30美元<strong>看涨期权</strong>的成交量特别高，成交量为7,147张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e4439211db6afcfdb3924a5c4daead\" title=\"数据来源：Market Chameleon\" tg-width=\"1641\" tg-height=\"275\"/><span>数据来源：Market Chameleon</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">促使该银行股价大跌的是原因是，4月4日周二盘后，这家区域性银行更新了其财务披露信息，但未透露更多有关其存款余额的信息。</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">Jefferies的分析师Casey Haire认为：投资者可能会认为，该银行在存款余额方面的数据不尽人意，所以才选择不披露相关数据。这是该银行自3月10日以来的第四次更新财务数据，也是唯一一次没有明确披露存款数据的更新。</span></p><p><span style=\"color:#562727;\" class=\"color-mark\">在上个月美国发生区域性银行危机之后，投资者一直关注各家银行的存款余额指标。</span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","BK4543":"AI","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","T":"At&T","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4023":"应用软件"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193322916","content_text":"摘要：美东时间周三（4月5日），期权市场总成交量达35,378,919张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%；美国电车股继续全线下跌，特斯拉本周已跌10%；空头报告+各国政府针对AI的禁令，重挫美股最火AI股。一、市场概览美东时间周三（4月5日），经济衰退担忧成为主旋律，美股三大指数涨跌不一。美国3月ADP就业数据不及预期、3月ISM非制造业指数意外大跌，显示出美国经济增长正走向急剧放缓或衰退的潜在迹象。截至收盘，道指涨80.34点，涨幅为0.24%，报33482.72点；纳指跌129.47点，跌幅为1.07%，报11996.86点；标普500指数跌10.22点，跌幅为0.25%，报4090.38点。数据来源：老虎国际周三，期权市场总成交量达35,378,919张合约，其中，看涨期权占比54%。数据来源：Market Chameleon标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交728.2万张合约，其中，看跌期权占比61%。数据来源：Market Chameleon二、期权成交总量TOP10数据来源：老虎国际美国电车股继续全线下跌，特斯拉本周已跌10%特斯拉周三跌超3%，报185.52美元。期权合约成交200.8万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的60%。2023年4月6日到期行权价为190美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为139,636张。数据来源：Market Chameleon对未来前景的担忧，叠加“琢磨不透”的退税政策及衰退预期，4月的美股电车股正被逐步压垮。媒体分析认为，隔夜电动车股的走势不能完全归咎于市场，更重要的是，多位汽车公司高管在本周美国银行汽车会议上的发言，让投资者大失所望，未来对电动汽车销量的悲观预期，与一再生变的税收抵免让投资者们 “选择离开”。美国电话电报周三上涨1.22%，报19.88美元。期权合约成交105.8万张，看涨期权占全部期权交易的98%。2023年4月21日到期行权价为18美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为316,445张。同时，投资者需注意，该公司今日将除息。数据来源：Market Chameleon三、异动观察数据来源：Market Chameleon美股最火AI股重挫C3.ai周三跌超15%，报21.09美元。2023年4月6日到期行权价为20美元看跌期权的成交量特别高，成交量为15,776张。数据来源：Market Chameleon消息方面：令市场始料未及，一份关于C3.ai的空头报告打破了“一切美好”,令市场始料未及。Kerrisdale Capital上个月发布了一份关于该公司的空头报告，并在4月致函该公司的审计师——德勤，强调其对C3.ai涉嫌财务造假问题的担忧。Sahm Adrangi称：该公司使用高度激进的会计手段来夸大其损益表指标，以满足卖方分析师对收入和某些利润指标的估计，并掩盖其基础业务的显著恶化趋势。Kerrisdale在其网站上发布称，该公司将与定制软件生产相关的成本计入研发而非收入成本，以提高利润率。根据这一判断，这是C3.ai用来将自己展示为高利润的软件即服务业务而不是基于低利润咨询的会计手段之一。各国政府针对AI的禁令祸不单行，各国政府接连颁布AI禁令，重挫整个AI赛道，也使C3.ai的处境“雪上加霜”。欧洲率先发布禁令。上周意大利对ChatGPT的禁令，掀起了一轮针对OpenAI的监管风暴，德国监管机构跟进，表示正在考虑暂时禁用ChatGPT，法国、爱尔兰、西班牙等欧洲国家也紧随其后，开始考虑对AI聊天机器人采取更严格的监管。4月3日周一，德国联邦数据保护专员发言人称，出于数据保护方面的考虑，可能会暂时禁止在德国使用ChatGPT。该发言人称，是否决定禁止将由德国联邦数据保护机构研判后决定。国白宫官员表示，美国总统拜登将于周二在白宫与科技顾问举行会议，讨论人工智能（AI）给人类、社会和国家安全带来的“风险和机遇”。有媒体报道称，白宫官员表示，拜登将讨论保护权利和安全的重要性，以确保负责任的创新和适当的保障措施。白宫将呼吁国会通过隐私法，以保护孩子，并限制科技公司收集所有人的个人数据。媒体报道策划加拿大隐私专员办公室（OPC）4月4日宣布开始就涉及“指控OpenAI未经同意收集、使用和披露个人信息”的投诉进行调查。才安静没几天，美国又一区域银行大跌阿莱恩斯西部银行周三跌超12%，报29.37美元。2023年4月6日到期行权价为30美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为7,147张。数据来源：Market Chameleon促使该银行股价大跌的是原因是，4月4日周二盘后，这家区域性银行更新了其财务披露信息，但未透露更多有关其存款余额的信息。Jefferies的分析师Casey 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Deity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa9ba5dd1e4e1f2bd15226aa249ab64","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103012405740810","authorIdStr":"4103012405740810"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"老子刚退坑，再也不干了","listText":"老子刚退坑，再也不干了","text":"老子刚退坑，再也不干了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659064804","repostId":"2321975584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2321975584","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1679563984,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2321975584?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-23 17:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"电商今年会否卷入价格战？阿里戴珊：高投入去卷低质量的增长并不是最优解","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321975584","media":"36氪","summary":"面对商家普遍关心的“电商平台是否今年会卷入价格战”问题，戴珊回应称，“一味通过高投入去卷低质量的增长并不是最优解。”她提出，“好货好价”、“内容化”、“用户价值增长”才是天猫和品牌的增长机会。3月22","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>面对商家普遍关心的“电商平台是否今年会卷入价格战”问题，戴珊回应称，“一味通过高投入去卷低质量的增长并不是最优解。”她提出，“好货好价”、“内容化”、“用户价值增长”才是天猫和品牌的增长机会。</b></blockquote><p>3月22日下午3点，天猫举办了一场针对核心品牌商家的小规模闭门沟通会，阿里巴巴中国商业板块总裁戴珊出席，在上海与十几位品牌商家进行交流。</p><p>在3个小时的会议里，戴珊首次明确了天猫2023年的发展策略，并就“该不该做低价”、“如何更好的内容化”等问题和品牌商家进行了沟通。</p><p>每年初举办商家沟通会是阿里的惯例。一位接近阿里的人士告诉36氪，早些年逍遥子会亲自出席，但过去三年受疫情影响，这类沟通会无法正常在线下进行。此番是2022年戴珊接管大淘宝之后，第一次在线下跟品牌商家的高层面对面沟通。</p><p>戴珊称，<b>2023年天猫将在“用户增长”、“市场增长”、“新产业”三个方面加大投入</b>，“只有真金白银的投入，才能让品牌与平台共同实现增长”。</p><p>面对商家普遍关心的“电商平台是否今年会卷入价格战”问题，戴珊回应称，“一味通过高投入去卷低质量的增长并不是最优解。”她提出，“好货好价”、“内容化”、“用户价值增长”才是天猫和品牌的增长机会。</p><p>阿里巴巴曾长达数年在电商领域保持第一，但今日这家公司的处境大不相同。万亿GMV规模的竞争对手越来越多，而大淘宝的核心用户管理收入已经连续三个季度负增长。</p><p>疫情结束，平台和商家都希望重返增长通道。一位参与此次闭门会的商家称，“希望能给到具体的、能落地的、能解决增长问题的方案”。</p><p>如何做好“性价比”和“内容化”</p><p>随着京东等电商平台宣布重投入“低价”策略，一些商家在会上表示，十分担忧今年各大电商平台会再次掀起价格战，因为这会伤害品牌商家的利润。</p><p>对此，戴珊提出第一个增长机会来自“好货好价”，希望以此来打消商家们的担忧，“好货在前，有‘好货&#39;才有必要追求‘好价’，而好货往往并不会最便宜，只有好货与好价同时存在，才能最大满足消费者诉求。”</p><p>比起一味追求低价，天猫更鼓励商家对“性价比”进行投入，这样既不会打破既有的价格体系，也能实现增长。一位阿里员工告诉36氪，所谓对“性价比”投入，具体手段包括打折发券，新品规划，对细分人群进行运营策略调整等。</p><p>此外戴珊透露，平台将改掉百亿补贴/聚划算的商业机制，“推出更公平的竞价机制”。</p><p>品牌商家们格外关心的另一个问题则是“内容化该怎么做”。36氪从一些天猫头部商家处获悉，过去1-2年内，为了在淘宝天猫做好内容，他们都自建了内容团队。除了直播，它们大都投入了许多精力运营逛逛，部分品牌甚至会每月发上数百条短视频。</p><p>戴珊在闭门会上称，“这个时代发生变化了，过去的图文详情页已经讲不清楚商品了，要跟上消费者的需求。我们也看到去年双11之后，<b>使用短视频、直播等形式进行用户沟通的内容型商家的增长，远高于以图文详情为表达方式的商家。”</b></p><p>事实上，戴珊上任后，淘系内容化的战略地位就有所提升。淘宝的直播和内容业务逛逛原本置于平台业务框架下，2022年1月初的组织架构调整中，淘宝直播负责人道放和逛逛负责人千城均直接向戴珊汇报。2022年年中，逛逛的负责人改为汪庭祥，他曾任淘鲜达CEO、淘菜菜市场负责人。</p><p>36氪了解到，淘宝直播2022年下半年保持了不错的增长，这很大程度上归功于淘宝直播的主播池在过去一年以来持续引入新血液，例如罗永浩、俞敏洪、刘畊宏妻子vivi等已有大量粉丝的名人IP，近日淘宝直播也宣布和TVB进行合作，超过48位TVB艺人都会基于TVB甄选这个账号入淘直播。</p><p>戴珊在会上提及，今年内容化的一个重要工作是<b>如何用好淘宝直播、短视频等内容产品，与店铺经营进行更深度的勾连。</b></p><p>而从淘宝天猫的角度，流量是最直接的扶持。此前36氪从接近阿里的人士处获悉，手淘推荐信息流给到直播和短视频的流量，将从30%左右上调至70%，直播的入口可能再次发生变化。此外，短视频、内容种草和直播都将进入品牌店铺的首页。</p><p>“用户全生命周期运营，我们过去做得不够好”</p><p>针对“如何更好留住用户”的问题，戴珊也有所反思。</p><p>“用户全生命周期运营，我们过去做得不够好，今年会加大投入。以前红利期大家忙着往前跑，顾不了那么多，来了先让他买，到店人先转化。”戴珊说，“对于我们的经营来说，品牌的长期建设、品牌的长期生意，品牌用户全生命周期建设，是不变的主题。”</p><p>为了帮助商家运营好老客户，淘宝天猫近期发布了一条新规则——允许店铺设置的会员价、粉丝价、老客价、新客价不计入大促最低价计算。这意味着，<b>无论是淘宝还是天猫店铺，将有望在会员粉丝价上做出比大促还低的价格。</b></p><p>大促曾经是阿里巴巴最重要的利器。但随着各路玩家重投电商、直播间一年365天的打折，仅靠大促来留住消费者已经很难。</p><p>一位参会的品牌商家负责人认为，天猫态度上为增长做好了准备，动作上目前看是小步前进，不过有待进一步明确。</p></body></html>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-23 17:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/2182418435079942><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>面对商家普遍关心的“电商平台是否今年会卷入价格战”问题，戴珊回应称，“一味通过高投入去卷低质量的增长并不是最优解。”她提出，“好货好价”、“内容化”、“用户价值增长”才是天猫和品牌的增长机会。3月22日下午3点，天猫举办了一场针对核心品牌商家的小规模闭门沟通会，阿里巴巴中国商业板块总裁戴珊出席，在上海与十几位品牌商家进行交流。在3个小时的会议里，戴珊首次明确了天猫2023年的发展策略，并就“该不该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/2182418435079942\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/2182418435079942","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321975584","content_text":"面对商家普遍关心的“电商平台是否今年会卷入价格战”问题，戴珊回应称，“一味通过高投入去卷低质量的增长并不是最优解。”她提出，“好货好价”、“内容化”、“用户价值增长”才是天猫和品牌的增长机会。3月22日下午3点，天猫举办了一场针对核心品牌商家的小规模闭门沟通会，阿里巴巴中国商业板块总裁戴珊出席，在上海与十几位品牌商家进行交流。在3个小时的会议里，戴珊首次明确了天猫2023年的发展策略，并就“该不该做低价”、“如何更好的内容化”等问题和品牌商家进行了沟通。每年初举办商家沟通会是阿里的惯例。一位接近阿里的人士告诉36氪，早些年逍遥子会亲自出席，但过去三年受疫情影响，这类沟通会无法正常在线下进行。此番是2022年戴珊接管大淘宝之后，第一次在线下跟品牌商家的高层面对面沟通。戴珊称，2023年天猫将在“用户增长”、“市场增长”、“新产业”三个方面加大投入，“只有真金白银的投入，才能让品牌与平台共同实现增长”。面对商家普遍关心的“电商平台是否今年会卷入价格战”问题，戴珊回应称，“一味通过高投入去卷低质量的增长并不是最优解。”她提出，“好货好价”、“内容化”、“用户价值增长”才是天猫和品牌的增长机会。阿里巴巴曾长达数年在电商领域保持第一，但今日这家公司的处境大不相同。万亿GMV规模的竞争对手越来越多，而大淘宝的核心用户管理收入已经连续三个季度负增长。疫情结束，平台和商家都希望重返增长通道。一位参与此次闭门会的商家称，“希望能给到具体的、能落地的、能解决增长问题的方案”。如何做好“性价比”和“内容化”随着京东等电商平台宣布重投入“低价”策略，一些商家在会上表示，十分担忧今年各大电商平台会再次掀起价格战，因为这会伤害品牌商家的利润。对此，戴珊提出第一个增长机会来自“好货好价”，希望以此来打消商家们的担忧，“好货在前，有‘好货'才有必要追求‘好价’，而好货往往并不会最便宜，只有好货与好价同时存在，才能最大满足消费者诉求。”比起一味追求低价，天猫更鼓励商家对“性价比”进行投入，这样既不会打破既有的价格体系，也能实现增长。一位阿里员工告诉36氪，所谓对“性价比”投入，具体手段包括打折发券，新品规划，对细分人群进行运营策略调整等。此外戴珊透露，平台将改掉百亿补贴/聚划算的商业机制，“推出更公平的竞价机制”。品牌商家们格外关心的另一个问题则是“内容化该怎么做”。36氪从一些天猫头部商家处获悉，过去1-2年内，为了在淘宝天猫做好内容，他们都自建了内容团队。除了直播，它们大都投入了许多精力运营逛逛，部分品牌甚至会每月发上数百条短视频。戴珊在闭门会上称，“这个时代发生变化了，过去的图文详情页已经讲不清楚商品了，要跟上消费者的需求。我们也看到去年双11之后，使用短视频、直播等形式进行用户沟通的内容型商家的增长，远高于以图文详情为表达方式的商家。”事实上，戴珊上任后，淘系内容化的战略地位就有所提升。淘宝的直播和内容业务逛逛原本置于平台业务框架下，2022年1月初的组织架构调整中，淘宝直播负责人道放和逛逛负责人千城均直接向戴珊汇报。2022年年中，逛逛的负责人改为汪庭祥，他曾任淘鲜达CEO、淘菜菜市场负责人。36氪了解到，淘宝直播2022年下半年保持了不错的增长，这很大程度上归功于淘宝直播的主播池在过去一年以来持续引入新血液，例如罗永浩、俞敏洪、刘畊宏妻子vivi等已有大量粉丝的名人IP，近日淘宝直播也宣布和TVB进行合作，超过48位TVB艺人都会基于TVB甄选这个账号入淘直播。戴珊在会上提及，今年内容化的一个重要工作是如何用好淘宝直播、短视频等内容产品，与店铺经营进行更深度的勾连。而从淘宝天猫的角度，流量是最直接的扶持。此前36氪从接近阿里的人士处获悉，手淘推荐信息流给到直播和短视频的流量，将从30%左右上调至70%，直播的入口可能再次发生变化。此外，短视频、内容种草和直播都将进入品牌店铺的首页。“用户全生命周期运营，我们过去做得不够好”针对“如何更好留住用户”的问题，戴珊也有所反思。“用户全生命周期运营，我们过去做得不够好，今年会加大投入。以前红利期大家忙着往前跑，顾不了那么多，来了先让他买，到店人先转化。”戴珊说，“对于我们的经营来说，品牌的长期建设、品牌的长期生意，品牌用户全生命周期建设，是不变的主题。”为了帮助商家运营好老客户，淘宝天猫近期发布了一条新规则——允许店铺设置的会员价、粉丝价、老客价、新客价不计入大促最低价计算。这意味着，无论是淘宝还是天猫店铺，将有望在会员粉丝价上做出比大促还低的价格。大促曾经是阿里巴巴最重要的利器。但随着各路玩家重投电商、直播间一年365天的打折，仅靠大促来留住消费者已经很难。一位参会的品牌商家负责人认为，天猫态度上为增长做好了准备，动作上目前看是小步前进，不过有待进一步明确。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650123503,"gmtCreate":1678977348602,"gmtModify":1678977441473,"author":{"id":"4103012405740810","authorId":"4103012405740810","name":"我就不要5000万美元Taoist 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11:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"半导体产业链大迁徙，墨西哥才是大赢家","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152108425","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在墨西哥的“半导体蓝图”中，除晶圆代工外，其计划借助美国方面的投资，打造本土的半导体封装、测试与设计方面等领域，最终成为北美半导体产业链中不可或缺的一环。有些演员因为有天赋，常常被说是老天爷追着赏饭吃","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>在墨西哥的“半导体蓝图”中，除晶圆代工外，其计划借助美国方面的投资，打造本土的半导体封装、测试与设计方面等领域，最终成为北美半导体产业链中不可或缺的一环。</blockquote><p>有些演员因为有天赋，常常被说是老天爷追着赏饭吃。而有些国家或地区，因为全球最大的两大经济体“互撕头发”，而被追着给钱给资源。印度和越南常常被提及，相反墨西哥则容易被忽略，可能离中国太远，但和美国做邻居，逃不过被“投喂”的命运。</p><p>前段时间，美国总统Joe Biden拉着加拿大与墨西哥总理共同商议，计划开启半导体产业论坛，以此在北美地区重塑供应链，减少对中国台湾在晶圆制造方面的依赖，同时制约中国大陆在高端芯片领域的发展。</p><p>去年夏天，美国通过《芯片法案》（CHIPS and Science Act），投资总额2800亿美元。其中，500亿美元用于在美国本土新建晶圆代工厂，目前已有台积电、美光与英特尔等响应号召。根据美墨两国协议，未来部分晶圆厂可能会选择墨西哥，并为当地带来大量的工作机会。</p><p>当然，墨西哥方面的半导体“蓝图”远不止如此。除晶圆代工外，计划借助美国方面的投资，打造本土的半导体封装、测试与设计方面等领域，最终成为北美半导体产业链中不可或缺的一环。</p><p><b>饼画好了，如何落地？</b></p><p>首先，墨西哥目前的一大优势是相对低廉的人力成本，毕竟完全Made in America可能在成本上并不具备优势；其次，根据协议，美墨两国除了在半导体投资方面的合作，还包括相关教育资源方面的支援，保障人才供给；资金方面，墨西哥方面也正在游说，希望通过美国的背书，以获取巨额贷款。资源方面，墨西哥是全球第10大锂矿资源国，早在去年9月，美墨两国政要已就如何将锂矿与芯片生产绑定的问题，进行协商。</p><p>现实角度，芯片制造是一个对技术和人才都高度依赖的行业，特别是在工艺上，光刻机的精度是制约芯片制造关键中的关键。另外，Intel的一条14纳米投资超过250亿美元，而按现在的发展速度，三年就会更新一代制程，三年连投资成本都收不回来就要再投巨资建设下一代生产线。所以，美国芯片法案的这些钱可能也不太够。</p><p>但一切困难也架不住美国的决心。在此之前，美国方面已在尝试将电动汽车生产迁移至墨西哥。电动汽车厂商（Link EV Electric Vehicles）计划投资2.6亿美元在墨西哥建设产线，通用汽车公司也在随后投资超10亿美元在墨西哥搭建电动汽车工厂。不止美国，来自路透社的最新消息显示，德国汽车制造商宝马计划在墨西哥中部圣路易斯波托西州进行一项新的重大投资。此前宝马已经在该州拥有一家工厂。墨西哥方面希望未来可形成矿产、芯片与电动汽车的产业协同效应。</p><p>从来没有所谓的躺赢，不过是在背后暗自较劲罢了。从以上的布局不难看出，为了搭上产业链回迁的这班车，墨西哥方面花的功夫不少，加之中美贸易冲突不断升级，坐收渔翁之利（据华尔街日报，金额可达数百亿美元），美加两国领导亲自加持，天时、地利与人和，全凑齐了。虽然目前仍无法判断墨西哥能否就此崛起，但这一波，稳赚不赔。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680487><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在墨西哥的“半导体蓝图”中，除晶圆代工外，其计划借助美国方面的投资，打造本土的半导体封装、测试与设计方面等领域，最终成为北美半导体产业链中不可或缺的一环。有些演员因为有天赋，常常被说是老天爷追着赏饭吃。而有些国家或地区，因为全球最大的两大经济体“互撕头发”，而被追着给钱给资源。印度和越南常常被提及，相反墨西哥则容易被忽略，可能离中国太远，但和美国做邻居，逃不过被“投喂”的命运。前段时间，美国总统...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680487\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3680487","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152108425","content_text":"在墨西哥的“半导体蓝图”中，除晶圆代工外，其计划借助美国方面的投资，打造本土的半导体封装、测试与设计方面等领域，最终成为北美半导体产业链中不可或缺的一环。有些演员因为有天赋，常常被说是老天爷追着赏饭吃。而有些国家或地区，因为全球最大的两大经济体“互撕头发”，而被追着给钱给资源。印度和越南常常被提及，相反墨西哥则容易被忽略，可能离中国太远，但和美国做邻居，逃不过被“投喂”的命运。前段时间，美国总统Joe Biden拉着加拿大与墨西哥总理共同商议，计划开启半导体产业论坛，以此在北美地区重塑供应链，减少对中国台湾在晶圆制造方面的依赖，同时制约中国大陆在高端芯片领域的发展。去年夏天，美国通过《芯片法案》（CHIPS and Science Act），投资总额2800亿美元。其中，500亿美元用于在美国本土新建晶圆代工厂，目前已有台积电、美光与英特尔等响应号召。根据美墨两国协议，未来部分晶圆厂可能会选择墨西哥，并为当地带来大量的工作机会。当然，墨西哥方面的半导体“蓝图”远不止如此。除晶圆代工外，计划借助美国方面的投资，打造本土的半导体封装、测试与设计方面等领域，最终成为北美半导体产业链中不可或缺的一环。饼画好了，如何落地？首先，墨西哥目前的一大优势是相对低廉的人力成本，毕竟完全Made in America可能在成本上并不具备优势；其次，根据协议，美墨两国除了在半导体投资方面的合作，还包括相关教育资源方面的支援，保障人才供给；资金方面，墨西哥方面也正在游说，希望通过美国的背书，以获取巨额贷款。资源方面，墨西哥是全球第10大锂矿资源国，早在去年9月，美墨两国政要已就如何将锂矿与芯片生产绑定的问题，进行协商。现实角度，芯片制造是一个对技术和人才都高度依赖的行业，特别是在工艺上，光刻机的精度是制约芯片制造关键中的关键。另外，Intel的一条14纳米投资超过250亿美元，而按现在的发展速度，三年就会更新一代制程，三年连投资成本都收不回来就要再投巨资建设下一代生产线。所以，美国芯片法案的这些钱可能也不太够。但一切困难也架不住美国的决心。在此之前，美国方面已在尝试将电动汽车生产迁移至墨西哥。电动汽车厂商（Link EV Electric Vehicles）计划投资2.6亿美元在墨西哥建设产线，通用汽车公司也在随后投资超10亿美元在墨西哥搭建电动汽车工厂。不止美国，来自路透社的最新消息显示，德国汽车制造商宝马计划在墨西哥中部圣路易斯波托西州进行一项新的重大投资。此前宝马已经在该州拥有一家工厂。墨西哥方面希望未来可形成矿产、芯片与电动汽车的产业协同效应。从来没有所谓的躺赢，不过是在背后暗自较劲罢了。从以上的布局不难看出，为了搭上产业链回迁的这班车，墨西哥方面花的功夫不少，加之中美贸易冲突不断升级，坐收渔翁之利（据华尔街日报，金额可达数百亿美元），美加两国领导亲自加持，天时、地利与人和，全凑齐了。虽然目前仍无法判断墨西哥能否就此崛起，但这一波，稳赚不赔。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626679673,"gmtCreate":1674149758293,"gmtModify":1674149759992,"author":{"id":"4103012405740810","authorId":"4103012405740810","name":"我就不要5000万美元Taoist 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16:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"SpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642407785","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">史上最大IPO即将登场，但围绕其定价的争议同样史无前例。乐观者将其比作英伟达早年的历史性入场窗口，悲观者则以财务模型推断，当前定价已高估逾半。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX定于本周五（6月12日）在纳斯达克以代码SPCX挂牌交易，发行价135美元，计划募资约750亿美元，上市后估值高达1.77万亿美元，将创下全球IPO规模之最。围绕这只股票，华尔街正陷入罕见的尖锐分歧——乐观派将其视为一代人难得一遇的入场机会，悲观派则认为投资者正在为埃隆·马斯克的宏大愿景支付高达72美元的&#34;期权溢价&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush Securities高级分析师Dan Ives将此次IPO定性为&#34;AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻&#34;，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。</p><h2 id=\"ipo\">史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。</strong>公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的&#34;圣杯&#34;式整合。</p><h2 id=\"53\">空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，<strong>意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的&#34;期权溢价&#34;——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens将其基准情景定义为&#34;最小可行产品&#34;，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。</p><h2 id=\"id_1255959513\">历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃&#34;回落宿命&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，<strong>当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。</strong>Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。&#34;IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，&#34;Ritter告诉CBS新闻，&#34;因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的&#34;成熟型&#34;公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。&#34;我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，&#34;他表示，&#34;也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"3a4094e4\">散户涌入与指数被动买盘</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，<strong>散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。&#34;有大量资金在追踪这些指数，&#34;Grelck说，&#34;随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"9b6f4062\">锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens认为，<strong>这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。</strong>即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。&#34;</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX上市倒计时：错过它，等于错过2009年的英伟达？华尔街陷入两难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-11 16:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">史上最大IPO即将登场，但围绕其定价的争议同样史无前例。乐观者将其比作英伟达早年的历史性入场窗口，悲观者则以财务模型推断，当前定价已高估逾半。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX定于本周五（6月12日）在纳斯达克以代码SPCX挂牌交易，发行价135美元，计划募资约750亿美元，上市后估值高达1.77万亿美元，将创下全球IPO规模之最。围绕这只股票，华尔街正陷入罕见的尖锐分歧——乐观派将其视为一代人难得一遇的入场机会，悲观派则认为投资者正在为埃隆·马斯克的宏大愿景支付高达72美元的&#34;期权溢价&#34;。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush Securities高级分析师Dan Ives将此次IPO定性为&#34;AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻&#34;，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。</p><h2 id=\"ipo\">史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"ai\">多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。</strong>公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的&#34;圣杯&#34;式整合。</p><h2 id=\"53\">空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，<strong>意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的&#34;期权溢价&#34;——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens将其基准情景定义为&#34;最小可行产品&#34;，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。</p><h2 id=\"id_1255959513\">历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃&#34;回落宿命&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，<strong>当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。</strong>Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。&#34;IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，&#34;Ritter告诉CBS新闻，&#34;因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的&#34;成熟型&#34;公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。&#34;我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，&#34;他表示，&#34;也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"3a4094e4\">散户涌入与指数被动买盘</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，<strong>散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。&#34;有大量资金在追踪这些指数，&#34;Grelck说，&#34;随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"9b6f4062\">锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Owens认为，<strong>这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。</strong>即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#34;我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。&#34;</p></blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"LU0143551892.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU2462591277.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"AN\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU2954938101.SGD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL FOCUSED GROWTH EQUITY \"A8P\" (SGD) INC","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2999663052.SGD":"T 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774413","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642407785","content_text":"多头看好SpaceX旗下数据中心的强悍AI算力及与特斯拉合并的圣杯前景，将本次IPO视为类似英伟达发展初期的“加倍买入”时机；空头则指其溢价过高、持续亏损，折价53%才是合理估值。面对散户大举涌入、限售提早解禁以及巨型IPO抽离流动性的历史宿命，这场世纪上市恐将引发美股剧烈波动。史上最大IPO即将登场，但围绕其定价的争议同样史无前例。乐观者将其比作英伟达早年的历史性入场窗口，悲观者则以财务模型推断，当前定价已高估逾半。SpaceX定于本周五（6月12日）在纳斯达克以代码SPCX挂牌交易，发行价135美元，计划募资约750亿美元，上市后估值高达1.77万亿美元，将创下全球IPO规模之最。围绕这只股票，华尔街正陷入罕见的尖锐分歧——乐观派将其视为一代人难得一遇的入场机会，悲观派则认为投资者正在为埃隆·马斯克的宏大愿景支付高达72美元的\"期权溢价\"。Wedbush Securities高级分析师Dan Ives将此次IPO定性为\"AI革命向前迈进的重要时刻\"，并认为SpaceX与特斯拉合并的概率超过80%，届时或将催生一个涵盖AI生态核心资产的马斯克商业帝国。与此相对，Morningstar分析师Nicolas Owens给出的公允价值仅为每股63美元，较发行价低53%，直指当前定价在很大程度上是对轨道数据中心等高风险项目的押注，而非对已实现业务的合理定价。此次IPO对市场的影响已提前显现。本周二纳斯达克指数盘中一度下跌4%，随后收窄至跌1%，周三盘中再度下挫近2%，市场对超大规模IPO吸走流动性的担忧情绪持续发酵。同时，约30%的IPO份额将优先向散户投资者分配——远高于通常5%至10%的惯例比例——叠加纳斯达克100指数和罗素指数均修改规则为SpaceX开辟快速纳入通道，此次上市将深度影响数以百万计持有指数基金的普通退休账户持有人。史上最大IPO：高增长背后的亏损叙事SpaceX此次公开发行约5.56亿股，占公司总股本略超4%，募资规模约750亿美元，估值1.77万亿美元，超越特斯拉（1.5万亿美元）、Meta（1.4万亿美元）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦（1.04万亿美元）。公司基本面呈现典型的高增长、高亏损特征：2025年营收达186.7亿美元，同比增长33%，但同期净亏损达49.4亿美元。按发行价测算，市销率约为94倍。该IPO已获超额认购，意味着市场需求超过SpaceX愿意在发行价出售的股票数量，首日乃至前几日的交易可能伴随较大价格波动。目前，Hyperliquid永续期货市场上SpaceX合约报价约为155美元，较135美元发行价隐含约15%的上涨空间。多头逻辑：AI基础设施与特斯拉合并想象Dan Ives的乐观论据核心指向SpaceX在AI基础设施领域的现实进展。公司旗下位于田纳西州孟菲斯的Colossus数据中心，集成22万块英伟达顶级GPU，可提供超过300兆瓦的AI算力。这一硬件优势已转化为可观的商业合同。据此前的上市文件披露，SpaceX与谷歌签署了约每月9.2亿美元的AI算力租赁协议；Anthropic则同意支付每月12.5亿美元，独家使用孟菲斯Colossus 1设施的算力，合同期至2029年5月，总金额逾400亿美元。在资本运作层面，Ives指出，今年2月SpaceX收购xAI，使特斯拉持有的20亿美元xAI投资转换为SpaceX股份，两家公司之间的股权关联已然形成。他认为，若SpaceX与特斯拉最终合并，马斯克将得以掌控AI生态链上更完整的版图，实现所谓的\"圣杯\"式整合。空头论据：53%折价与轨道数据中心的赌注Morningstar的Nicolas Owens给出了截然不同的估值框架。在其周一发布的研报中，他将SpaceX公允价值定为每股63美元，意味着当前135美元的发行价中，有约72美元是投资者为公司尚未实现、甚至可能永远无法实现的宏大项目所支付的\"期权溢价\"——主要包括轨道数据中心和火星基地计划。Owens将其基准情景定义为\"最小可行产品\"，赋予50%的概率：轨道数据中心在技术上可行，但面临规模瓶颈，SpaceX届时约占全球AI算力预测容量的4%，到2035年可实现约470亿美元的年度轨道AI收入。悲观情景则赋予43%的概率：轨道数据中心根本无法落地，或相较于地面方案不具备成本优势。Owens认为，在此情形下，公司可能在2028年前后放弃该项目，就像特斯拉当年中止多座小型汽车工厂建设计划一样。若如此，估值将大幅缩水。唯有在最乐观情景下——轨道数据中心不仅可行且成本优于地面方案——公司估值才能达到1.97万亿美元，对应每股154美元，略高于发行价。Owens坦言，SpaceX或许是全球唯一有能力实现这一目标的公司，但相关科学可行性至今仍存在较大不确定性。纽约大学金融学教授Aswath Damodaran给出的企业价值估算为1.22万亿美元，同时承认在极度乐观的假设下1.75万亿美元的估值并非完全没有依据，但这已预设了公司在企业AI市场取得显著份额，以及整体太空发射行业在未来十年快速扩张。历史警示：大型IPO往往难逃\"回落宿命\"尽管The Motley Fool等机构指出，当前SpaceX闪烁着与2009年低知名度时期的英伟达相似的“加倍买入”信号，但历史数据对巨型IPO并不友好。Truist的分析显示，在过去15年中，30个大型科技IPO在交易第一年的平均最大回撤幅度高达55%，超过半数的公司在首秀一年后录得负回报。佛罗里达大学IPO研究专家、教授Jay Ritter的数据覆盖范围更广——对1980年至2024年逾9200只IPO的研究显示，以上市首日收盘价买入的投资者，三年市场调整后平均回报率为-21%。\"IPO平均首日涨幅约为19%，\"Ritter告诉CBS新闻，\"因此，买入价是135美元还是165美元，最终回报差异显著。\"据Motley Fool统计，2011年至2024年间上市的1724只股票，在上市后一年的加权平均回报率为-1.7%；而对于SpaceX这类规模更大、公司成立已24年且年收入数百亿美元的\"成熟型\"公司而言，历史记录则更为不利。Truist的Sam Grelck亦指出，短期表现通常强于长期：上市后一周至三个月的表现相对较好，但随着时间延伸至一年及以上，回调和负收益开始逐步显现。\"我们不知道它究竟会如何走，也存在例外，\"他表示，\"也许SpaceX会表现良好，没有大幅回调。\"散户涌入与指数被动买盘此次IPO的一个特殊之处，在于散户参与度异常之高。约30%的IPO份额向散户投资者分配，远超通常5%至10%的水平，同时多家在线券商已大幅降低普通投资者以发行价认购的门槛。然而，更大规模散户参与也可能带来额外的股价波动风险。Grelck指出，散户投资者在公司增长不及预期时，往往比机构投资者更倾向于直接抛售，而非选择持仓等待。另一方面，指数纳入机制将形成被动买盘支撑。纳斯达克100指数近期修改了规则，允许SpaceX在上市后15个交易日内纳入指数，这意味着追踪该指数的热门ETF产品QQQ的持有人将自动成为SpaceX股东；罗素系列指数则允许SpaceX在上市后5个交易日内快速纳入。\"有大量资金在追踪这些指数，\"Grelck说，\"随着SpaceX进入指数，系统性买入有可能在一定程度上对股价形成支撑。\"锁定期安排：波动风险的隐藏变量此次IPO另一个值得关注的细节，是SpaceX非常规的股票锁定期安排。与通常要求内部人士和早期股东在上市180天后才能出售股份的惯例不同，SpaceX允许部分投资者（马斯克本人除外）在IPO后数周即可出售一定比例股份，此后再分批解锁，直至12月。Owens认为，这一安排意味着未来六个月内市场将持续面临潜在的抛售压力。即便实际抛售压力不大，市场也可能提前消化预期，在每个解锁节点前主动卖出，制造阶段性回调。此外，5.56亿发行股仅占公司总股本的约4%，随着早期投资者借助分批解锁套现，市场上的卖盘供给将持续增加，即便指数被动买入形成一定对冲，对股价的下行压力仍不容忽视。Owens总结道：\"我们认为，渴望分享SpaceX未来机遇的长期投资者，将在初始发行之后获得比当前发行价提供更多安全边际的买入机会。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCF":0.6,"SPCX":2,"SPCH":0.6,"LOFF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":450757461353336,"gmtCreate":1751074436017,"gmtModify":1751074438455,"author":{"id":"4103012405740810","authorId":"4103012405740810","name":"我就不要5000万美元Taoist 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22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：美参议员写信呼吁证交会推迟SpaceX的IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181933077","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月10日，据纽约时报报道，市场正密切关注SpaceX将于周五开始公开交易，因为华尔街预计这家马斯克旗下的火箭与AI巨头将从热切的投资者手中筹集超740亿美元的资金。但根据最新报道，美参议员沃伦是最新一位对IPO持怀疑态度的人，她指出IPO可能对散户投资者构成潜在危险。沃伦周二致信美国证交会主席阿特金斯，希望该委员会能推迟SpaceX的IPO。她在信中写道，此次IPO“似乎会给普通投资者及其退休储蓄带来重大风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月10日，据纽约时报报道，市场正密切关注SpaceX将于周五开始公开交易，因为华尔街预计这家马斯克旗下的火箭与AI巨头将从热切的投资者手中筹集超740亿美元的资金。但根据最新报道，美参议员沃伦是最新一位对IPO持怀疑态度的人，她指出IPO可能对散户投资者构成潜在危险。沃伦周二致信美国证交会主席阿特金斯，希望该委员会能推迟SpaceX的IPO。她在信中写道，此次IPO“似乎会给普通投资者及其退休储蓄带来重大风险”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息：美参议员写信呼吁证交会推迟SpaceX的IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-10 22:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月10日，据纽约时报报道，市场正密切关注SpaceX将于周五开始公开交易，因为华尔街预计这家马斯克旗下的火箭与AI巨头将从热切的投资者手中筹集超740亿美元的资金。但根据最新报道，美参议员沃伦是最新一位对IPO持怀疑态度的人，她指出IPO可能对散户投资者构成潜在危险。沃伦周二致信美国证交会主席阿特金斯，希望该委员会能推迟SpaceX的IPO。她在信中写道，此次IPO“似乎会给普通投资者及其退休储蓄带来重大风险”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d341c06c6ee21d1115fabb535090081","relate_stocks":{"SNK":"GraniteShares 2x Short SpaceX Daily ETF","SPCU":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF","SPCF":"ProShares Ultra SpaceX","SPCH":"Leverage Shares 2X Long SPCX Daily ETF","LOFF":"Direxion Daily SpaceX Bull 2X ETF","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","SPAL":"GraniteShares 2x Long SpaceX Daily 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