Jibaban的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Jibaban

Jibaban

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

7关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-12-14

Buy

Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market Again. What’s Next for Musk’s EV Firm.<blockquote>特斯拉股票再次陷入熊市。马斯克电动汽车公司的下一步是什么。</blockquote>

2021-12-08

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$now or never.. To the moon!

2021-12-08

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$To the moon!!

2021-11-22

Faith

Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>

2021-11-06

[Happy]

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-04

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Wow how long will this last?

2021-11-03

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up or down today?

2021-10-28

$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$It’s happening! All the way please !!

2021-10-26

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Woooo

2021-10-26

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy to keep

2021-10-26

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy to keep long term

2021-10-25

$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$take and run !

2021-10-25

Great

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-23

Tell me your opinion about this news...

Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32<blockquote>特斯拉大涨近1%创903.32历史新高</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4097984683297470","uuid":"4097984683297470","gmtCreate":1634881617178,"gmtModify":1634954086681,"name":"Jibaban","pinyin":"jibaban","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":7,"tweetSize":14,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.73%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.07","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.07","exceedPercentage":"60.14%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":604705171,"gmtCreate":1639443623812,"gmtModify":1639443623812,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604705171","repostId":"1114636896","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114636896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639439509,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114636896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market Again. What’s Next for Musk’s EV Firm.<blockquote>特斯拉股票再次陷入熊市。马斯克电动汽车公司的下一步是什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114636896","media":"Barrons","summary":"Shares of electric-vehicle leader Tesla crossed into bear-market territory today. That statement is ","content":"<p>Shares of electric-vehicle leader&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;crossed into bear-market territory&nbsp;today. That statement is technically true, but also a little tiring. Stocks, individually, don’t have bear or bull markets. That terms should be reserved for, well, the overall market. Still, the big dip in a mega-cap stock is noteworthy leaving investors wondering what might come next.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领导者特斯拉的股价今天进入熊市区域。这种说法在技术上是正确的，但也有点累。就个人而言，股票没有熊市或牛市。这些条款应该留给整个市场。尽管如此，大型股的大幅下跌还是值得注意的，让投资者想知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed down 5% at $966.41. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;both closed down 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价收盘下跌5%，至966.41美元。标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均收跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The Monday dip sent the company’s market cap below $1 trillion based on the number of shares outstanding, excluding management stock options. Shares are down 21% from the Nov. 4 closing high of $1,229.91. Shares are down 22% from the intraday high of $1,243.49.</p><p><blockquote>根据已发行股票数量（不包括管理层股票期权）计算，周一的下跌使该公司的市值跌破1万亿美元。股价较11月4日收盘高点1,229.91美元下跌21%。股价较盘中高点1,243.49美元下跌22%。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not bear markets should be measured from a closing high or an intraday high is the source of debate on Wall Street. But again, the debate doesn’t really matter in this instance because individual stocks don’t have bull and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>熊市应该从收盘高点还是盘中高点来衡量是华尔街争论的焦点。但同样，在这种情况下，争论并不重要，因为个股没有牛市和熊市。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it’s a bear market or not isn’t the point for individual investors. The pain of a 20% drop is real.</p><p><blockquote>对于个人投资者来说，是否是熊市并不是重点。下跌20%的痛苦是真实的。</blockquote></p><p> One of the last times Tesla stock closed in bear-market territory was February 2021. (Yes, <i>Barron’s</i> wrote about the single stock bear market then, too.) Back then, interest rates were rising and highly valued tech stocks took it on the chin. Higher rates hurt the valuation of shares of faster-growing companies more than those of slow-growing mature companies—that’s just the way the math of higher interest rates works out.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票最后一次收于熊市区域是在2021年2月。（是的，<i>巴伦周刊</i>当时也写过关于单股熊市的文章。）当时，利率正在上升，高估值的科技股承受了压力。较高的利率对增长较快的公司股票估值的损害大于增长缓慢的成熟公司的股票估值——这正是较高利率的数学计算方式。</blockquote></p><p> Back then it took about six months for the stock to retake its old highs. If that were to happen again, bullish investors would be waiting until June 2022 to see Tesla stock hit $1,300.</p><p><blockquote>当时，该股花了大约六个月的时间才恢复到旧高点。如果这种情况再次发生，看涨的投资者将等到2022年6月才能看到特斯拉股价触及1,300美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would be a long wait for bulls, and while there is no way to know if that scenario will even unfold, there is a lot going on that could move the stock in the coming couple of months. Bullish and bearish Tesla investors will be watching for the startup of two new plants in Germany and Texas, the impact of those new plants on profit margins, the start of deliveries of the Tesla Cybertruck and the overall growth of EVs in the U.S., Europe, and China.</p><p><blockquote>对于多头来说，这将是一个漫长的等待，虽然没有办法知道这种情况是否会发生，但未来几个月有很多事情可能会影响该股。看涨和看跌的特斯拉投资者将关注德国和德克萨斯两家新工厂的启动、这些新工厂对利润率的影响、特斯拉Cybertruck的开始交付以及美国电动汽车的整体增长、欧洲和中国。</blockquote></p><p> With all that coming, it raising the question of why the shares are struggling.</p><p><blockquote>随之而来的是，这引发了一个问题：为什么股价陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Two things might be at work. First, CEO Elon Musk is still selling stock. It creates an overhang. Some bulls might wait to buy until the large sales are over. Musk has at least 5 million or 6 million shares left to sell associated with his expiring stock options. He will probably be done selling by the end of 2021, but he might just Tweet out when he’s done. At current pace, we figure by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>可能有两件事在起作用。首先，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克仍在出售股票。它创造了一个悬垂。一些多头可能会等到大规模抛售结束后再买入。马斯克还有至少500万或600万股与他即将到期的股票期权相关的股票可供出售。他可能会在2021年底完成出售，但他可能会在完成后发布推文。按照目前的速度，我们预计到年底。</blockquote></p><p> Second, there is the issue of Musk being named Time’s Person of the Year.Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos won that distinction in 1999, near a multiyear peak in that stock. Amazon shares went on to slide, and some investors think Tesla stock could do the same.</p><p><blockquote>其次，还有马斯克被《时代》杂志评为年度人物的问题。亚马逊。com(AMZN)创始人杰夫·贝索斯(Mark Zuckerberg)在1999年获得了这一殊荣，当时该股股价接近多年来的峰值。亚马逊股价继续下滑，一些投资者认为特斯拉股价也可能出现同样的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon comparison with Tesla doesn’t quite match up, however. The two companies are at very different stages of development when their top executives won Time’s distinction. Amazon had a market capitalization of $27 billion back then. Tesla’s market cap is now hovering around $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，亚马逊与特斯拉的比较并不完全匹配。当这两家公司的高管赢得《时代》杂志的殊荣时，它们正处于截然不同的发展阶段。亚马逊当时的市值为270亿美元。特斯拉的市值目前徘徊在1万亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Still, it’s a belief, and traders do odd things from time to time, justified or not. When stocks move upward, or downward, momentum traders will jump on the trend for whatever reason.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这仍然是一种信念，交易者时不时会做一些奇怪的事情，无论是否合理。当股票上涨或下跌时，无论出于何种原因，动量交易者都会顺势而为。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market Again. What’s Next for Musk’s EV Firm.<blockquote>特斯拉股票再次陷入熊市。马斯克电动汽车公司的下一步是什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is in a Bear Market Again. What’s Next for Musk’s EV Firm.<blockquote>特斯拉股票再次陷入熊市。马斯克电动汽车公司的下一步是什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 07:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of electric-vehicle leader&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;crossed into bear-market territory&nbsp;today. That statement is technically true, but also a little tiring. Stocks, individually, don’t have bear or bull markets. That terms should be reserved for, well, the overall market. Still, the big dip in a mega-cap stock is noteworthy leaving investors wondering what might come next.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领导者特斯拉的股价今天进入熊市区域。这种说法在技术上是正确的，但也有点累。就个人而言，股票没有熊市或牛市。这些条款应该留给整个市场。尽管如此，大型股的大幅下跌还是值得注意的，让投资者想知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed down 5% at $966.41. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;both closed down 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价收盘下跌5%，至966.41美元。标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均收跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The Monday dip sent the company’s market cap below $1 trillion based on the number of shares outstanding, excluding management stock options. Shares are down 21% from the Nov. 4 closing high of $1,229.91. Shares are down 22% from the intraday high of $1,243.49.</p><p><blockquote>根据已发行股票数量（不包括管理层股票期权）计算，周一的下跌使该公司的市值跌破1万亿美元。股价较11月4日收盘高点1,229.91美元下跌21%。股价较盘中高点1,243.49美元下跌22%。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not bear markets should be measured from a closing high or an intraday high is the source of debate on Wall Street. But again, the debate doesn’t really matter in this instance because individual stocks don’t have bull and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>熊市应该从收盘高点还是盘中高点来衡量是华尔街争论的焦点。但同样，在这种情况下，争论并不重要，因为个股没有牛市和熊市。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it’s a bear market or not isn’t the point for individual investors. The pain of a 20% drop is real.</p><p><blockquote>对于个人投资者来说，是否是熊市并不是重点。下跌20%的痛苦是真实的。</blockquote></p><p> One of the last times Tesla stock closed in bear-market territory was February 2021. (Yes, <i>Barron’s</i> wrote about the single stock bear market then, too.) Back then, interest rates were rising and highly valued tech stocks took it on the chin. Higher rates hurt the valuation of shares of faster-growing companies more than those of slow-growing mature companies—that’s just the way the math of higher interest rates works out.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票最后一次收于熊市区域是在2021年2月。（是的，<i>巴伦周刊</i>当时也写过关于单股熊市的文章。）当时，利率正在上升，高估值的科技股承受了压力。较高的利率对增长较快的公司股票估值的损害大于增长缓慢的成熟公司的股票估值——这正是较高利率的数学计算方式。</blockquote></p><p> Back then it took about six months for the stock to retake its old highs. If that were to happen again, bullish investors would be waiting until June 2022 to see Tesla stock hit $1,300.</p><p><blockquote>当时，该股花了大约六个月的时间才恢复到旧高点。如果这种情况再次发生，看涨的投资者将等到2022年6月才能看到特斯拉股价触及1,300美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would be a long wait for bulls, and while there is no way to know if that scenario will even unfold, there is a lot going on that could move the stock in the coming couple of months. Bullish and bearish Tesla investors will be watching for the startup of two new plants in Germany and Texas, the impact of those new plants on profit margins, the start of deliveries of the Tesla Cybertruck and the overall growth of EVs in the U.S., Europe, and China.</p><p><blockquote>对于多头来说，这将是一个漫长的等待，虽然没有办法知道这种情况是否会发生，但未来几个月有很多事情可能会影响该股。看涨和看跌的特斯拉投资者将关注德国和德克萨斯两家新工厂的启动、这些新工厂对利润率的影响、特斯拉Cybertruck的开始交付以及美国电动汽车的整体增长、欧洲和中国。</blockquote></p><p> With all that coming, it raising the question of why the shares are struggling.</p><p><blockquote>随之而来的是，这引发了一个问题：为什么股价陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Two things might be at work. First, CEO Elon Musk is still selling stock. It creates an overhang. Some bulls might wait to buy until the large sales are over. Musk has at least 5 million or 6 million shares left to sell associated with his expiring stock options. He will probably be done selling by the end of 2021, but he might just Tweet out when he’s done. At current pace, we figure by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>可能有两件事在起作用。首先，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克仍在出售股票。它创造了一个悬垂。一些多头可能会等到大规模抛售结束后再买入。马斯克还有至少500万或600万股与他即将到期的股票期权相关的股票可供出售。他可能会在2021年底完成出售，但他可能会在完成后发布推文。按照目前的速度，我们预计到年底。</blockquote></p><p> Second, there is the issue of Musk being named Time’s Person of the Year.Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos won that distinction in 1999, near a multiyear peak in that stock. Amazon shares went on to slide, and some investors think Tesla stock could do the same.</p><p><blockquote>其次，还有马斯克被《时代》杂志评为年度人物的问题。亚马逊。com(AMZN)创始人杰夫·贝索斯(Mark Zuckerberg)在1999年获得了这一殊荣，当时该股股价接近多年来的峰值。亚马逊股价继续下滑，一些投资者认为特斯拉股价也可能出现同样的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon comparison with Tesla doesn’t quite match up, however. The two companies are at very different stages of development when their top executives won Time’s distinction. Amazon had a market capitalization of $27 billion back then. Tesla’s market cap is now hovering around $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，亚马逊与特斯拉的比较并不完全匹配。当这两家公司的高管赢得《时代》杂志的殊荣时，它们正处于截然不同的发展阶段。亚马逊当时的市值为270亿美元。特斯拉的市值目前徘徊在1万亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Still, it’s a belief, and traders do odd things from time to time, justified or not. When stocks move upward, or downward, momentum traders will jump on the trend for whatever reason.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这仍然是一种信念，交易者时不时会做一些奇怪的事情，无论是否合理。当股票上涨或下跌时，无论出于何种原因，动量交易者都会顺势而为。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-bear-musk-51639436863?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-bear-musk-51639436863?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114636896","content_text":"Shares of electric-vehicle leader Tesla crossed into bear-market territory today. That statement is technically true, but also a little tiring. Stocks, individually, don’t have bear or bull markets. That terms should be reserved for, well, the overall market. Still, the big dip in a mega-cap stock is noteworthy leaving investors wondering what might come next.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed down 5% at $966.41. The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed down 0.9%.\nThe Monday dip sent the company’s market cap below $1 trillion based on the number of shares outstanding, excluding management stock options. Shares are down 21% from the Nov. 4 closing high of $1,229.91. Shares are down 22% from the intraday high of $1,243.49.\nWhether or not bear markets should be measured from a closing high or an intraday high is the source of debate on Wall Street. But again, the debate doesn’t really matter in this instance because individual stocks don’t have bull and bear markets.\nWhether it’s a bear market or not isn’t the point for individual investors. The pain of a 20% drop is real.\nOne of the last times Tesla stock closed in bear-market territory was February 2021. (Yes, Barron’s wrote about the single stock bear market then, too.) Back then, interest rates were rising and highly valued tech stocks took it on the chin. Higher rates hurt the valuation of shares of faster-growing companies more than those of slow-growing mature companies—that’s just the way the math of higher interest rates works out.\nBack then it took about six months for the stock to retake its old highs. If that were to happen again, bullish investors would be waiting until June 2022 to see Tesla stock hit $1,300.\nThat would be a long wait for bulls, and while there is no way to know if that scenario will even unfold, there is a lot going on that could move the stock in the coming couple of months. Bullish and bearish Tesla investors will be watching for the startup of two new plants in Germany and Texas, the impact of those new plants on profit margins, the start of deliveries of the Tesla Cybertruck and the overall growth of EVs in the U.S., Europe, and China.\nWith all that coming, it raising the question of why the shares are struggling.\nTwo things might be at work. First, CEO Elon Musk is still selling stock. It creates an overhang. Some bulls might wait to buy until the large sales are over. Musk has at least 5 million or 6 million shares left to sell associated with his expiring stock options. He will probably be done selling by the end of 2021, but he might just Tweet out when he’s done. At current pace, we figure by year-end.\nSecond, there is the issue of Musk being named Time’s Person of the Year.Amazon.com (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos won that distinction in 1999, near a multiyear peak in that stock. Amazon shares went on to slide, and some investors think Tesla stock could do the same.\nThe Amazon comparison with Tesla doesn’t quite match up, however. The two companies are at very different stages of development when their top executives won Time’s distinction. Amazon had a market capitalization of $27 billion back then. Tesla’s market cap is now hovering around $1 trillion.\nStill, it’s a belief, and traders do odd things from time to time, justified or not. When stocks move upward, or downward, momentum traders will jump on the trend for whatever reason.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602936919,"gmtCreate":1638954609591,"gmtModify":1638954609591,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>now or never..&nbsp;To the moon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>now or never..&nbsp;To the moon!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$now or never.. To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602936919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602938528,"gmtCreate":1638954582347,"gmtModify":1638954582347,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>To the moon!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>To the moon!!","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$To the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602938528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875927948,"gmtCreate":1637595817195,"gmtModify":1637595817195,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Faith","listText":"Faith","text":"Faith","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875927948","repostId":"1176632260","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176632260","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637158579,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176632260?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-17 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176632260","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.</li>  <li>Palantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.</li>  <li>The stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.</li>  <li>I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第三季度收入增长放缓，但随着商业业务势头回升和股权薪酬放缓，Palantir的看涨论点越来越强。</li><li>Palantir的长期增长轨迹完好无损，管理层指导到2025年销售额复合年增长率为30%以上。此外，Palantir看起来已经像一台正在形成的自由现金流机器。</li><li>该股在目前水平上被低估，为投资者提供了产生长期阿尔法的绝佳机会。</li><li>我对Palantir的评级为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最新的季度业绩和前瞻性指引显示出增长减速的迹象。当销售增长放缓时，高市盈率增长股票往往会面临压力，这就是上周Palantir发生的情况。从近期来看，股市是一台投票机；然而，从长期来看，市场是一台称重机。要想成功，投资者必须着眼于长期。看着Palantir疲软的价格走势，人们很容易忘记Palantir是一家真正特殊的公司，拥有一条坚不可摧的护城河，其中包括卓越的技术、网络效应（政府和商业关系）、富有远见的管理和强大的品牌形象（与反恐和民族主义相关）。在我看来，Palantir最近的抛售是一个很好的长期买入机会，我将在以下部分概述我的推理。</blockquote></p><p> As you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>您可能知道，Palantir的愿景是成为这个星球上最重要的软件公司。如今，Palantir的边缘人工智能平台有潜力主导数据操作系统和分析领域，这恰好是一个快速增长的市场。随着每个季度的过去，Palantir都在赢得新客户，因此，Palantir的牛市论点不断增强。现在，Palantir的第三季度报告远非完美，因为该公司显示出增长放缓的迹象。然而，Palantir在商业领域不断增长的业务势头以及股票薪酬支出早就应该放缓的迹象强化了该公司的看涨论点。要了解有关我对Palantir的看涨论点的更多信息，我建议您阅读以下注释：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Palantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla</li>  <li>Palantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World</li>  <li>Palantir Stock: Building An Army</li> </ol> Before we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>Palantir与特斯拉惊人地相似</li><li>Palantir正在重新定义现代世界的操作系统</li><li>Palantir股票：建立一支军队</li></ol>在得出Palantir的公允价值和预期回报之前，让我们更详细地分析Palantir第三季度的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Breaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir第三季度业绩细分</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，Palantir的收入同比增长36%，达到3.92亿美元（高于管理层指导的3.85亿美元）。尽管Palantir超出了销售指引，但2021年第三季度的销售增长显着放缓（2021年第二季度同比增长49%）。在IT支出非常健康的时候（微软第三季度出色的业绩就证明了这一点），随着经济恢复正常，数据分析软件公司的表现应该会超出预期，为什么Palantir的增长会放缓，弱点来自哪里？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39599f1410f08819b841ca3cb5dad21f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年实现了令人印象深刻的60%以上的同比增长后，Palantir的政府业务增长在2021年第三季度大幅放缓。虽然Palantir的政府部门收入增速从Q2的66%y/y下降到Q3的34%y/y，但这些成绩绝不差。随着政府财政年度将于9月结束，经济放缓可能只是预算管理的结果。现在，Palantir的管理层一直坚称他们的重点是长期，我们知道，由于其合同的性质，Palantir的增长可能会不稳定。从积极的方面来看，Palantir在本季度确实赢得了一些交易，包括与美国陆军达成的价值9亿美元的提供情报数据结构和分析解决方案的交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9454707f695d2944d0831e1dcfc64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>与Palantir的政府业务相比，随着该公司根据“初创公司代工”计划向选定的零日公司（年轻的初创公司）提供代工平台，向下游转移，其商业业务正在加速增长。Palantir希望成为下一代科技巨头的主要数据操作系统提供商，这一下游举措为该软件提供商打开了巨大的市场。第三季度，Palantir的商业收入为1.74亿美元（约占总收入的44%），这意味着同比增长率为37%【美国商业收入同比增长加速至103%）。因此，很容易看出Palantir的多元化努力开始得到回报。与政府部门相比，商业部门是一个更大的市场；因此，Palantir在这里获得的牵引力超过了其政府业务的放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6979dbeb3a9f06a44e34258ff7c6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.</p><p><blockquote>在利润率方面，Palantir继续报告大量数据。2021年第三季度，Palantir的调整后。毛利率升至82%（同比增长约100个基点），贡献率扩大至57%（同比增长约100个基点）。现在，由于看似过高的股票薪酬计划，Palantir仍然没有盈利；然而，凭借其利润率，Palantir成为一家利润丰厚的企业只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cb8cf252718ea948f211d13fc9f4a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我很高兴看到Palantir产生强劲的自由现金流。2021年到目前为止，Palantir的调整后收入为3.2亿美元。自由现金流（调整后自由现金流利润率为29%）。Palantir仍处于高速增长阶段，因此，我可以看到Palantir在2020年代变成一台FCF机器——类似于当今的大型科技公司。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb504dc349b3c31a9307c531595e44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34495a6627f39f40acd745f911cfa795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir管理层预计第四季度收入为4.18亿美元（环比增长2600万美元（环比增长6.66%））。此外，Palantir还指导了adj。营业利润率将下降至22%；然而，他们预计2021年第三季度的增长率为22%，实际调整后的增长率为22%。营业利润率为30%。所以，我认为这个指南中包含了某种程度的沙袋。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7d14573f4162af9e75a0122f8b3618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，Palantir目前预计收入将增长至$15.27 B（同比增长40%）。自由现金流超过4亿美元。过去，Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp曾预计到2025年复合年增长率将达到30%以上。因此，我们可以自信地预计该公司明年将达到20亿美元的年收入里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Since its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.</p><p><blockquote>自公开上市以来，针对Palantir的看跌论点一直集中在商业客户的吸引力有限及其臃肿的股票薪酬计划上。然而，我认为Palantir正在证明这些论点是错误的，而第三季度是一个真正的信念助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛市论点越来越强</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，Palantir新增34家净新客户，即客户总数环比增长20%。商业客户数量环比增长46%，超过了总客户增长，代表了Palantir商业产品的明显业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65524e6cad63512b8c28545d2694003a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir现在向较小的公司提供其代工平台，我们预计商业客户数量将在未来几个季度和几年内膨胀。许多批评者将Palantir的SPAC投资称为购买收入的交易；然而，我们将这些交易视为战略投资，以证明Palantir软件平台在商业领域各种用例中的可行性。此外，Palantir的交易完成数据（分享如下）显示，Palantir在销售和营销方面的巨额投资正在获得相当可观的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8870c2d7c6a9a734f125d76047ce3c1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，Palantir的总剩余交易价值为$3.6 B[商业剩余交易价值为$2.2 B（同比增长101%）]，为该公司未来几年提供了强大的渠道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835f52a8f182efefcd5e9eaeb63bcfef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.</p><p><blockquote>对于Palantir的股东来说，一个特别棘手的问题是其臃肿的股权薪酬计划，这使得该公司看起来更像是一家员工合作社，而不是一家上市的营利性公司。尽管Palantir的股票薪酬（1.84亿美元；占总收入的47%）在2021年第三季度仍保持在超高水平，但这一趋势显然表明SBC正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dbf880d002116e8df5fd9bc5e7b370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir规模的扩大，收入迅速增长，而基于股票的薪酬[占收入的百分比]持续下降。因此，随着每个季度的过去，对Palantir的看跌论点越来越弱。现在，让我们确定Palantir的公允价值和预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <i><b>Assumptions:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>假设：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32607fd03d29b289a0e3bd216b0db20a\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Results:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>结果：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb459bd9b95d6732e939ad46b27dd73c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的模型，Palantir每股价值约31美元，即目前被低估约27%。因此，Palantir在这里似乎是一个不错的选择。然而，我们还必须评估股票的预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数，即35倍。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the expected returns for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Palantir的预期回报：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a12d02340653a630ec00875a082191\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述结果，Palantir的股票预计到2031年将从约23美元增长到约132美元，复合年增长率约为19%。由于这些预期回报高于我们15%的投资门槛率，我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking At The Technical Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看技术图</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，我强调了Palantir面临的以下风险：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.</li>  <li>As discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.</li> </ul> Source:Palantir Stock: Building An Army</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的管理层着眼于长期，预计该公司将积极投资以寻求未来的销售增长，换句话说，这意味着Palantir在短期内仍将无法盈利。随着通胀上升和债券收益率上升，以大倍数交易的亏损股票（例如，Palantir目前的市盈率约为35倍）可能会出现深度调整。因此，Palantir的股价在未来几个月可能会保持波动。</li><li>正如今天所讨论的，Palantir目前位于50移动平均线和200移动平均线（25美元）附近的关键支撑位，突破可能会进一步向20美元大关下跌。因此，我更喜欢在接下来的几个月里通过平均成本计划购买。</li></ul>资料来源：Palantir股票：建立一支军队</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此后，Palantir从反向头肩形态中的突破被证明是假的，该股在10月初的死亡交叉后已跌破200日均线趋势线。由于通胀环境，市场情绪对成长型股票相当悲观（少数市场宠儿除外），因此，Palantir在短期内可能还有更多下行空间。17.5美元至20美元区域应该会成为Palantir的有力支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25025246a456372f13a3e9a1fd49daeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> From a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.</p><p><blockquote>从长期角度来看，我仍然认为Palantir是一家下一代大型科技公司，未来很可能拥有数万亿美元的市值。随着商业领域的增长势头和政府国防软件领域的垄断市场份额，Palantir是未来十年最强劲的长期增长故事之一。尽管Palantir尚未盈利，但该公司已经产生了大量自由现金流（2021年为4亿美元）。此外，Palantir的股票薪酬也显示出放缓的迹象。此外，估值倍数（基于2022年20亿美元的收入，市盈率为23倍）在过去十个月左右大幅收缩。由于近期波动性持续存在，我继续建议使用平均成本计划在Palantir建仓（最多占投资组合的3-4%）。Palantir的股价为每股23美元，值得大力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Key Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>关键要点：我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格为23美元</b></i></blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Ahan Vashi</p><p><blockquote>本文由Ahan Vashi撰写</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-17 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.</li>  <li>Palantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.</li>  <li>The stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.</li>  <li>I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第三季度收入增长放缓，但随着商业业务势头回升和股权薪酬放缓，Palantir的看涨论点越来越强。</li><li>Palantir的长期增长轨迹完好无损，管理层指导到2025年销售额复合年增长率为30%以上。此外，Palantir看起来已经像一台正在形成的自由现金流机器。</li><li>该股在目前水平上被低估，为投资者提供了产生长期阿尔法的绝佳机会。</li><li>我对Palantir的评级为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最新的季度业绩和前瞻性指引显示出增长减速的迹象。当销售增长放缓时，高市盈率增长股票往往会面临压力，这就是上周Palantir发生的情况。从近期来看，股市是一台投票机；然而，从长期来看，市场是一台称重机。要想成功，投资者必须着眼于长期。看着Palantir疲软的价格走势，人们很容易忘记Palantir是一家真正特殊的公司，拥有一条坚不可摧的护城河，其中包括卓越的技术、网络效应（政府和商业关系）、富有远见的管理和强大的品牌形象（与反恐和民族主义相关）。在我看来，Palantir最近的抛售是一个很好的长期买入机会，我将在以下部分概述我的推理。</blockquote></p><p> As you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>您可能知道，Palantir的愿景是成为这个星球上最重要的软件公司。如今，Palantir的边缘人工智能平台有潜力主导数据操作系统和分析领域，这恰好是一个快速增长的市场。随着每个季度的过去，Palantir都在赢得新客户，因此，Palantir的牛市论点不断增强。现在，Palantir的第三季度报告远非完美，因为该公司显示出增长放缓的迹象。然而，Palantir在商业领域不断增长的业务势头以及股票薪酬支出早就应该放缓的迹象强化了该公司的看涨论点。要了解有关我对Palantir的看涨论点的更多信息，我建议您阅读以下注释：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Palantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla</li>  <li>Palantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World</li>  <li>Palantir Stock: Building An Army</li> </ol> Before we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>Palantir与特斯拉惊人地相似</li><li>Palantir正在重新定义现代世界的操作系统</li><li>Palantir股票：建立一支军队</li></ol>在得出Palantir的公允价值和预期回报之前，让我们更详细地分析Palantir第三季度的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Breaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir第三季度业绩细分</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，Palantir的收入同比增长36%，达到3.92亿美元（高于管理层指导的3.85亿美元）。尽管Palantir超出了销售指引，但2021年第三季度的销售增长显着放缓（2021年第二季度同比增长49%）。在IT支出非常健康的时候（微软第三季度出色的业绩就证明了这一点），随着经济恢复正常，数据分析软件公司的表现应该会超出预期，为什么Palantir的增长会放缓，弱点来自哪里？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39599f1410f08819b841ca3cb5dad21f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年实现了令人印象深刻的60%以上的同比增长后，Palantir的政府业务增长在2021年第三季度大幅放缓。虽然Palantir的政府部门收入增速从Q2的66%y/y下降到Q3的34%y/y，但这些成绩绝不差。随着政府财政年度将于9月结束，经济放缓可能只是预算管理的结果。现在，Palantir的管理层一直坚称他们的重点是长期，我们知道，由于其合同的性质，Palantir的增长可能会不稳定。从积极的方面来看，Palantir在本季度确实赢得了一些交易，包括与美国陆军达成的价值9亿美元的提供情报数据结构和分析解决方案的交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9454707f695d2944d0831e1dcfc64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>与Palantir的政府业务相比，随着该公司根据“初创公司代工”计划向选定的零日公司（年轻的初创公司）提供代工平台，向下游转移，其商业业务正在加速增长。Palantir希望成为下一代科技巨头的主要数据操作系统提供商，这一下游举措为该软件提供商打开了巨大的市场。第三季度，Palantir的商业收入为1.74亿美元（约占总收入的44%），这意味着同比增长率为37%【美国商业收入同比增长加速至103%）。因此，很容易看出Palantir的多元化努力开始得到回报。与政府部门相比，商业部门是一个更大的市场；因此，Palantir在这里获得的牵引力超过了其政府业务的放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6979dbeb3a9f06a44e34258ff7c6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.</p><p><blockquote>在利润率方面，Palantir继续报告大量数据。2021年第三季度，Palantir的调整后。毛利率升至82%（同比增长约100个基点），贡献率扩大至57%（同比增长约100个基点）。现在，由于看似过高的股票薪酬计划，Palantir仍然没有盈利；然而，凭借其利润率，Palantir成为一家利润丰厚的企业只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cb8cf252718ea948f211d13fc9f4a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我很高兴看到Palantir产生强劲的自由现金流。2021年到目前为止，Palantir的调整后收入为3.2亿美元。自由现金流（调整后自由现金流利润率为29%）。Palantir仍处于高速增长阶段，因此，我可以看到Palantir在2020年代变成一台FCF机器——类似于当今的大型科技公司。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb504dc349b3c31a9307c531595e44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34495a6627f39f40acd745f911cfa795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir管理层预计第四季度收入为4.18亿美元（环比增长2600万美元（环比增长6.66%））。此外，Palantir还指导了adj。营业利润率将下降至22%；然而，他们预计2021年第三季度的增长率为22%，实际调整后的增长率为22%。营业利润率为30%。所以，我认为这个指南中包含了某种程度的沙袋。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7d14573f4162af9e75a0122f8b3618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，Palantir目前预计收入将增长至$15.27 B（同比增长40%）。自由现金流超过4亿美元。过去，Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp曾预计到2025年复合年增长率将达到30%以上。因此，我们可以自信地预计该公司明年将达到20亿美元的年收入里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Since its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.</p><p><blockquote>自公开上市以来，针对Palantir的看跌论点一直集中在商业客户的吸引力有限及其臃肿的股票薪酬计划上。然而，我认为Palantir正在证明这些论点是错误的，而第三季度是一个真正的信念助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛市论点越来越强</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，Palantir新增34家净新客户，即客户总数环比增长20%。商业客户数量环比增长46%，超过了总客户增长，代表了Palantir商业产品的明显业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65524e6cad63512b8c28545d2694003a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir现在向较小的公司提供其代工平台，我们预计商业客户数量将在未来几个季度和几年内膨胀。许多批评者将Palantir的SPAC投资称为购买收入的交易；然而，我们将这些交易视为战略投资，以证明Palantir软件平台在商业领域各种用例中的可行性。此外，Palantir的交易完成数据（分享如下）显示，Palantir在销售和营销方面的巨额投资正在获得相当可观的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8870c2d7c6a9a734f125d76047ce3c1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，Palantir的总剩余交易价值为$3.6 B[商业剩余交易价值为$2.2 B（同比增长101%）]，为该公司未来几年提供了强大的渠道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835f52a8f182efefcd5e9eaeb63bcfef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.</p><p><blockquote>对于Palantir的股东来说，一个特别棘手的问题是其臃肿的股权薪酬计划，这使得该公司看起来更像是一家员工合作社，而不是一家上市的营利性公司。尽管Palantir的股票薪酬（1.84亿美元；占总收入的47%）在2021年第三季度仍保持在超高水平，但这一趋势显然表明SBC正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dbf880d002116e8df5fd9bc5e7b370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir规模的扩大，收入迅速增长，而基于股票的薪酬[占收入的百分比]持续下降。因此，随着每个季度的过去，对Palantir的看跌论点越来越弱。现在，让我们确定Palantir的公允价值和预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <i><b>Assumptions:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>假设：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32607fd03d29b289a0e3bd216b0db20a\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Results:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>结果：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb459bd9b95d6732e939ad46b27dd73c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的模型，Palantir每股价值约31美元，即目前被低估约27%。因此，Palantir在这里似乎是一个不错的选择。然而，我们还必须评估股票的预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数，即35倍。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the expected returns for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Palantir的预期回报：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a12d02340653a630ec00875a082191\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述结果，Palantir的股票预计到2031年将从约23美元增长到约132美元，复合年增长率约为19%。由于这些预期回报高于我们15%的投资门槛率，我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking At The Technical Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看技术图</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，我强调了Palantir面临的以下风险：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.</li>  <li>As discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.</li> </ul> Source:Palantir Stock: Building An Army</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的管理层着眼于长期，预计该公司将积极投资以寻求未来的销售增长，换句话说，这意味着Palantir在短期内仍将无法盈利。随着通胀上升和债券收益率上升，以大倍数交易的亏损股票（例如，Palantir目前的市盈率约为35倍）可能会出现深度调整。因此，Palantir的股价在未来几个月可能会保持波动。</li><li>正如今天所讨论的，Palantir目前位于50移动平均线和200移动平均线（25美元）附近的关键支撑位，突破可能会进一步向20美元大关下跌。因此，我更喜欢在接下来的几个月里通过平均成本计划购买。</li></ul>资料来源：Palantir股票：建立一支军队</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此后，Palantir从反向头肩形态中的突破被证明是假的，该股在10月初的死亡交叉后已跌破200日均线趋势线。由于通胀环境，市场情绪对成长型股票相当悲观（少数市场宠儿除外），因此，Palantir在短期内可能还有更多下行空间。17.5美元至20美元区域应该会成为Palantir的有力支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25025246a456372f13a3e9a1fd49daeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> From a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.</p><p><blockquote>从长期角度来看，我仍然认为Palantir是一家下一代大型科技公司，未来很可能拥有数万亿美元的市值。随着商业领域的增长势头和政府国防软件领域的垄断市场份额，Palantir是未来十年最强劲的长期增长故事之一。尽管Palantir尚未盈利，但该公司已经产生了大量自由现金流（2021年为4亿美元）。此外，Palantir的股票薪酬也显示出放缓的迹象。此外，估值倍数（基于2022年20亿美元的收入，市盈率为23倍）在过去十个月左右大幅收缩。由于近期波动性持续存在，我继续建议使用平均成本计划在Palantir建仓（最多占投资组合的3-4%）。Palantir的股价为每股23美元，值得大力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Key Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>关键要点：我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格为23美元</b></i></blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Ahan Vashi</p><p><blockquote>本文由Ahan Vashi撰写</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469410-palantir-stock-earnings-bull-thesis-stronger-commercial-business-momentum\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469410-palantir-stock-earnings-bull-thesis-stronger-commercial-business-momentum","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176632260","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.\nPalantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.\nThe stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.\nI rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nPalantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.\nAs you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:\n\nPalantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla\nPalantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World\nPalantir Stock: Building An Army\n\nBefore we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.\nBreaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results\nIn Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nAfter registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nIn contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nOn the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.\n\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.\nSince its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.\nThe Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger\nIn Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nWith Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nAt the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nA particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.\nSource: YCharts\nAs Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.\nPalantir's Fair Value And Expected Return\nTo find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nAssumptions:\n\nResults:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAccording to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.\nTo calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.\nHere are the expected returns for Palantir:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.\nLooking At The Technical Picture\nIn late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:\n\nPalantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.\nAs discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.\n\nSource:Palantir Stock: Building An Army\nSince then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.\nSource: YCharts\nConcluding Thoughts\nFrom a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23\nThis article was written by Ahan Vashi","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842569279,"gmtCreate":1636202860440,"gmtModify":1636202860531,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842569279","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848614658,"gmtCreate":1635994356049,"gmtModify":1635994356158,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Wow how long will this last?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Wow how long will this last?","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Wow how long will this last?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87a70ec10a4c75609b6e62d0b4e93167","width":"750","height":"1869"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848614658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841705746,"gmtCreate":1635940457681,"gmtModify":1635940457784,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up or down today?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up or down today?","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up or down today?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2393394ba64a9a4cb0b8d8aa08850d68","width":"750","height":"1978"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841705746","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855872848,"gmtCreate":1635359127204,"gmtModify":1635359127279,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>It’s happening! All the way please !!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>It’s happening! All the way please !!","text":"$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$It’s happening! All the way please !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855872848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852687679,"gmtCreate":1635262209165,"gmtModify":1635262234344,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woooo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woooo","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Woooo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3bebefc9eaed60e355366f0987dd4fb","width":"750","height":"1697"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852687679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852686177,"gmtCreate":1635261971748,"gmtModify":1635261971917,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy to keep","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a7771bd419e73b0e06b9a4ed3a016a4","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852686177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852689866,"gmtCreate":1635261772876,"gmtModify":1635261772949,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep long term&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep long term&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy to keep long term","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9e153eff2a436f0132e6df761f8018","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852689866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856680956,"gmtCreate":1635173237989,"gmtModify":1635173270106,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$</a>take&nbsp;and run !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$</a>take&nbsp;and run !","text":"$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$take and run !","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb31f7b189a7e9fc2a11554710a06aa6","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856680956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856142306,"gmtCreate":1635164461055,"gmtModify":1635164461131,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856142306","repostId":"2178142560","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851430930,"gmtCreate":1634918707124,"gmtModify":1634949645423,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097984683297470","authorIdStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851430930","repostId":"1154277407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154277407","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634910256,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154277407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-22 21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32<blockquote>特斯拉大涨近1%创903.32历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154277407","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32.On the morning of October 21st, Tesla","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;soared nearly&nbsp;1% and reached an all-time high at&nbsp;903.32.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9efe14c5fd20d7c4f39cc2a21c93b034\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">On the morning of October 21st, Tesla Motors announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉飙升近1%，达到903.32的历史新高。10月21日早间，特斯拉公布2021年第三季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The financial report shows that Tesla Motors's third-quarter revenue was 13.757 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 57%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US $1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of 389%; Diluted earnings per share was $1.44, compared with $0.27 in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>财报显示，特斯拉第三季度营收137.57亿美元，同比增长57%；归属于普通股股东的净利润16.18亿美元，同比增长389%；摊薄后每股收益为1.44美元，上年同期为0.27美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32<blockquote>特斯拉大涨近1%创903.32历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32<blockquote>特斯拉大涨近1%创903.32历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-22 21:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;soared nearly&nbsp;1% and reached an all-time high at&nbsp;903.32.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9efe14c5fd20d7c4f39cc2a21c93b034\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">On the morning of October 21st, Tesla Motors announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉飙升近1%，达到903.32的历史新高。10月21日早间，特斯拉公布2021年第三季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The financial report shows that Tesla Motors's third-quarter revenue was 13.757 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 57%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US $1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of 389%; Diluted earnings per share was $1.44, compared with $0.27 in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>财报显示，特斯拉第三季度营收137.57亿美元，同比增长57%；归属于普通股股东的净利润16.18亿美元，同比增长389%；摊薄后每股收益为1.44美元，上年同期为0.27美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154277407","content_text":"Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32.On the morning of October 21st, Tesla Motors announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2021.\nThe financial report shows that Tesla Motors's third-quarter revenue was 13.757 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 57%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US $1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of 389%; Diluted earnings per share was $1.44, compared with $0.27 in the same period last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"content":"It is expected to peak and should drop. I hope that I can buy the coming “dip”. Some said that the next support level (based on 1 Day chart) stands at about $850++","text":"It is expected to peak and should drop. I hope that I can buy the coming “dip”. Some said that the next support level (based on 1 Day chart) stands at about $850++","html":"It is expected to peak and should drop. I hope that I can buy the coming “dip”. Some said that the next support level (based on 1 Day chart) stands at about $850++"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":602938528,"gmtCreate":1638954582347,"gmtModify":1638954582347,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>To the moon!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>To the moon!!","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$To the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602938528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841705746,"gmtCreate":1635940457681,"gmtModify":1635940457784,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up or down today?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Up or down today?","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up or down today?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2393394ba64a9a4cb0b8d8aa08850d68","width":"750","height":"1978"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841705746","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856680956,"gmtCreate":1635173237989,"gmtModify":1635173270106,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$</a>take&nbsp;and run !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$</a>take&nbsp;and run !","text":"$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$take and run !","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb31f7b189a7e9fc2a11554710a06aa6","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856680956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851430930,"gmtCreate":1634918707124,"gmtModify":1634949645423,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851430930","repostId":"1154277407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154277407","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634910256,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154277407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-22 21:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32<blockquote>特斯拉大涨近1%创903.32历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154277407","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32.On the morning of October 21st, Tesla","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;soared nearly&nbsp;1% and reached an all-time high at&nbsp;903.32.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9efe14c5fd20d7c4f39cc2a21c93b034\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">On the morning of October 21st, Tesla Motors announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉飙升近1%，达到903.32的历史新高。10月21日早间，特斯拉公布2021年第三季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The financial report shows that Tesla Motors's third-quarter revenue was 13.757 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 57%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US $1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of 389%; Diluted earnings per share was $1.44, compared with $0.27 in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>财报显示，特斯拉第三季度营收137.57亿美元，同比增长57%；归属于普通股股东的净利润16.18亿美元，同比增长389%；摊薄后每股收益为1.44美元，上年同期为0.27美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32<blockquote>特斯拉大涨近1%创903.32历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32<blockquote>特斯拉大涨近1%创903.32历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-22 21:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;soared nearly&nbsp;1% and reached an all-time high at&nbsp;903.32.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9efe14c5fd20d7c4f39cc2a21c93b034\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">On the morning of October 21st, Tesla Motors announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉飙升近1%，达到903.32的历史新高。10月21日早间，特斯拉公布2021年第三季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The financial report shows that Tesla Motors's third-quarter revenue was 13.757 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 57%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US $1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of 389%; Diluted earnings per share was $1.44, compared with $0.27 in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>财报显示，特斯拉第三季度营收137.57亿美元，同比增长57%；归属于普通股股东的净利润16.18亿美元，同比增长389%；摊薄后每股收益为1.44美元，上年同期为0.27美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154277407","content_text":"Tesla soared nearly 1% and reached an all-time high at 903.32.On the morning of October 21st, Tesla Motors announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2021.\nThe financial report shows that Tesla Motors's third-quarter revenue was 13.757 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 57%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was US $1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of 389%; Diluted earnings per share was $1.44, compared with $0.27 in the same period last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574381076586256","idStr":"3574381076586256"},"content":"It is expected to peak and should drop. I hope that I can buy the coming “dip”. Some said that the next support level (based on 1 Day chart) stands at about $850++","text":"It is expected to peak and should drop. I hope that I can buy the coming “dip”. Some said that the next support level (based on 1 Day chart) stands at about $850++","html":"It is expected to peak and should drop. I hope that I can buy the coming “dip”. Some said that the next support level (based on 1 Day chart) stands at about $850++"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604705171,"gmtCreate":1639443623812,"gmtModify":1639443623812,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604705171","repostId":"1114636896","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114636896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639439509,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114636896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market Again. What’s Next for Musk’s EV Firm.<blockquote>特斯拉股票再次陷入熊市。马斯克电动汽车公司的下一步是什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114636896","media":"Barrons","summary":"Shares of electric-vehicle leader Tesla crossed into bear-market territory today. That statement is ","content":"<p>Shares of electric-vehicle leader&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;crossed into bear-market territory&nbsp;today. That statement is technically true, but also a little tiring. Stocks, individually, don’t have bear or bull markets. That terms should be reserved for, well, the overall market. Still, the big dip in a mega-cap stock is noteworthy leaving investors wondering what might come next.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领导者特斯拉的股价今天进入熊市区域。这种说法在技术上是正确的，但也有点累。就个人而言，股票没有熊市或牛市。这些条款应该留给整个市场。尽管如此，大型股的大幅下跌还是值得注意的，让投资者想知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed down 5% at $966.41. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;both closed down 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价收盘下跌5%，至966.41美元。标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均收跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The Monday dip sent the company’s market cap below $1 trillion based on the number of shares outstanding, excluding management stock options. Shares are down 21% from the Nov. 4 closing high of $1,229.91. Shares are down 22% from the intraday high of $1,243.49.</p><p><blockquote>根据已发行股票数量（不包括管理层股票期权）计算，周一的下跌使该公司的市值跌破1万亿美元。股价较11月4日收盘高点1,229.91美元下跌21%。股价较盘中高点1,243.49美元下跌22%。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not bear markets should be measured from a closing high or an intraday high is the source of debate on Wall Street. But again, the debate doesn’t really matter in this instance because individual stocks don’t have bull and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>熊市应该从收盘高点还是盘中高点来衡量是华尔街争论的焦点。但同样，在这种情况下，争论并不重要，因为个股没有牛市和熊市。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it’s a bear market or not isn’t the point for individual investors. The pain of a 20% drop is real.</p><p><blockquote>对于个人投资者来说，是否是熊市并不是重点。下跌20%的痛苦是真实的。</blockquote></p><p> One of the last times Tesla stock closed in bear-market territory was February 2021. (Yes, <i>Barron’s</i> wrote about the single stock bear market then, too.) Back then, interest rates were rising and highly valued tech stocks took it on the chin. Higher rates hurt the valuation of shares of faster-growing companies more than those of slow-growing mature companies—that’s just the way the math of higher interest rates works out.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票最后一次收于熊市区域是在2021年2月。（是的，<i>巴伦周刊</i>当时也写过关于单股熊市的文章。）当时，利率正在上升，高估值的科技股承受了压力。较高的利率对增长较快的公司股票估值的损害大于增长缓慢的成熟公司的股票估值——这正是较高利率的数学计算方式。</blockquote></p><p> Back then it took about six months for the stock to retake its old highs. If that were to happen again, bullish investors would be waiting until June 2022 to see Tesla stock hit $1,300.</p><p><blockquote>当时，该股花了大约六个月的时间才恢复到旧高点。如果这种情况再次发生，看涨的投资者将等到2022年6月才能看到特斯拉股价触及1,300美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would be a long wait for bulls, and while there is no way to know if that scenario will even unfold, there is a lot going on that could move the stock in the coming couple of months. Bullish and bearish Tesla investors will be watching for the startup of two new plants in Germany and Texas, the impact of those new plants on profit margins, the start of deliveries of the Tesla Cybertruck and the overall growth of EVs in the U.S., Europe, and China.</p><p><blockquote>对于多头来说，这将是一个漫长的等待，虽然没有办法知道这种情况是否会发生，但未来几个月有很多事情可能会影响该股。看涨和看跌的特斯拉投资者将关注德国和德克萨斯两家新工厂的启动、这些新工厂对利润率的影响、特斯拉Cybertruck的开始交付以及美国电动汽车的整体增长、欧洲和中国。</blockquote></p><p> With all that coming, it raising the question of why the shares are struggling.</p><p><blockquote>随之而来的是，这引发了一个问题：为什么股价陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Two things might be at work. First, CEO Elon Musk is still selling stock. It creates an overhang. Some bulls might wait to buy until the large sales are over. Musk has at least 5 million or 6 million shares left to sell associated with his expiring stock options. He will probably be done selling by the end of 2021, but he might just Tweet out when he’s done. At current pace, we figure by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>可能有两件事在起作用。首先，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克仍在出售股票。它创造了一个悬垂。一些多头可能会等到大规模抛售结束后再买入。马斯克还有至少500万或600万股与他即将到期的股票期权相关的股票可供出售。他可能会在2021年底完成出售，但他可能会在完成后发布推文。按照目前的速度，我们预计到年底。</blockquote></p><p> Second, there is the issue of Musk being named Time’s Person of the Year.Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos won that distinction in 1999, near a multiyear peak in that stock. Amazon shares went on to slide, and some investors think Tesla stock could do the same.</p><p><blockquote>其次，还有马斯克被《时代》杂志评为年度人物的问题。亚马逊。com(AMZN)创始人杰夫·贝索斯(Mark Zuckerberg)在1999年获得了这一殊荣，当时该股股价接近多年来的峰值。亚马逊股价继续下滑，一些投资者认为特斯拉股价也可能出现同样的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon comparison with Tesla doesn’t quite match up, however. The two companies are at very different stages of development when their top executives won Time’s distinction. Amazon had a market capitalization of $27 billion back then. Tesla’s market cap is now hovering around $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，亚马逊与特斯拉的比较并不完全匹配。当这两家公司的高管赢得《时代》杂志的殊荣时，它们正处于截然不同的发展阶段。亚马逊当时的市值为270亿美元。特斯拉的市值目前徘徊在1万亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Still, it’s a belief, and traders do odd things from time to time, justified or not. When stocks move upward, or downward, momentum traders will jump on the trend for whatever reason.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这仍然是一种信念，交易者时不时会做一些奇怪的事情，无论是否合理。当股票上涨或下跌时，无论出于何种原因，动量交易者都会顺势而为。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market Again. What’s Next for Musk’s EV Firm.<blockquote>特斯拉股票再次陷入熊市。马斯克电动汽车公司的下一步是什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is in a Bear Market Again. What’s Next for Musk’s EV Firm.<blockquote>特斯拉股票再次陷入熊市。马斯克电动汽车公司的下一步是什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 07:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of electric-vehicle leader&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;crossed into bear-market territory&nbsp;today. That statement is technically true, but also a little tiring. Stocks, individually, don’t have bear or bull markets. That terms should be reserved for, well, the overall market. Still, the big dip in a mega-cap stock is noteworthy leaving investors wondering what might come next.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车领导者特斯拉的股价今天进入熊市区域。这种说法在技术上是正确的，但也有点累。就个人而言，股票没有熊市或牛市。这些条款应该留给整个市场。尽管如此，大型股的大幅下跌还是值得注意的，让投资者想知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed down 5% at $966.41. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;both closed down 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价收盘下跌5%，至966.41美元。标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均收跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The Monday dip sent the company’s market cap below $1 trillion based on the number of shares outstanding, excluding management stock options. Shares are down 21% from the Nov. 4 closing high of $1,229.91. Shares are down 22% from the intraday high of $1,243.49.</p><p><blockquote>根据已发行股票数量（不包括管理层股票期权）计算，周一的下跌使该公司的市值跌破1万亿美元。股价较11月4日收盘高点1,229.91美元下跌21%。股价较盘中高点1,243.49美元下跌22%。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not bear markets should be measured from a closing high or an intraday high is the source of debate on Wall Street. But again, the debate doesn’t really matter in this instance because individual stocks don’t have bull and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>熊市应该从收盘高点还是盘中高点来衡量是华尔街争论的焦点。但同样，在这种情况下，争论并不重要，因为个股没有牛市和熊市。</blockquote></p><p> Whether it’s a bear market or not isn’t the point for individual investors. The pain of a 20% drop is real.</p><p><blockquote>对于个人投资者来说，是否是熊市并不是重点。下跌20%的痛苦是真实的。</blockquote></p><p> One of the last times Tesla stock closed in bear-market territory was February 2021. (Yes, <i>Barron’s</i> wrote about the single stock bear market then, too.) Back then, interest rates were rising and highly valued tech stocks took it on the chin. Higher rates hurt the valuation of shares of faster-growing companies more than those of slow-growing mature companies—that’s just the way the math of higher interest rates works out.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票最后一次收于熊市区域是在2021年2月。（是的，<i>巴伦周刊</i>当时也写过关于单股熊市的文章。）当时，利率正在上升，高估值的科技股承受了压力。较高的利率对增长较快的公司股票估值的损害大于增长缓慢的成熟公司的股票估值——这正是较高利率的数学计算方式。</blockquote></p><p> Back then it took about six months for the stock to retake its old highs. If that were to happen again, bullish investors would be waiting until June 2022 to see Tesla stock hit $1,300.</p><p><blockquote>当时，该股花了大约六个月的时间才恢复到旧高点。如果这种情况再次发生，看涨的投资者将等到2022年6月才能看到特斯拉股价触及1,300美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would be a long wait for bulls, and while there is no way to know if that scenario will even unfold, there is a lot going on that could move the stock in the coming couple of months. Bullish and bearish Tesla investors will be watching for the startup of two new plants in Germany and Texas, the impact of those new plants on profit margins, the start of deliveries of the Tesla Cybertruck and the overall growth of EVs in the U.S., Europe, and China.</p><p><blockquote>对于多头来说，这将是一个漫长的等待，虽然没有办法知道这种情况是否会发生，但未来几个月有很多事情可能会影响该股。看涨和看跌的特斯拉投资者将关注德国和德克萨斯两家新工厂的启动、这些新工厂对利润率的影响、特斯拉Cybertruck的开始交付以及美国电动汽车的整体增长、欧洲和中国。</blockquote></p><p> With all that coming, it raising the question of why the shares are struggling.</p><p><blockquote>随之而来的是，这引发了一个问题：为什么股价陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Two things might be at work. First, CEO Elon Musk is still selling stock. It creates an overhang. Some bulls might wait to buy until the large sales are over. Musk has at least 5 million or 6 million shares left to sell associated with his expiring stock options. He will probably be done selling by the end of 2021, but he might just Tweet out when he’s done. At current pace, we figure by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>可能有两件事在起作用。首先，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克仍在出售股票。它创造了一个悬垂。一些多头可能会等到大规模抛售结束后再买入。马斯克还有至少500万或600万股与他即将到期的股票期权相关的股票可供出售。他可能会在2021年底完成出售，但他可能会在完成后发布推文。按照目前的速度，我们预计到年底。</blockquote></p><p> Second, there is the issue of Musk being named Time’s Person of the Year.Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos won that distinction in 1999, near a multiyear peak in that stock. Amazon shares went on to slide, and some investors think Tesla stock could do the same.</p><p><blockquote>其次，还有马斯克被《时代》杂志评为年度人物的问题。亚马逊。com(AMZN)创始人杰夫·贝索斯(Mark Zuckerberg)在1999年获得了这一殊荣，当时该股股价接近多年来的峰值。亚马逊股价继续下滑，一些投资者认为特斯拉股价也可能出现同样的情况。</blockquote></p><p> The Amazon comparison with Tesla doesn’t quite match up, however. The two companies are at very different stages of development when their top executives won Time’s distinction. Amazon had a market capitalization of $27 billion back then. Tesla’s market cap is now hovering around $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，亚马逊与特斯拉的比较并不完全匹配。当这两家公司的高管赢得《时代》杂志的殊荣时，它们正处于截然不同的发展阶段。亚马逊当时的市值为270亿美元。特斯拉的市值目前徘徊在1万亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Still, it’s a belief, and traders do odd things from time to time, justified or not. When stocks move upward, or downward, momentum traders will jump on the trend for whatever reason.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这仍然是一种信念，交易者时不时会做一些奇怪的事情，无论是否合理。当股票上涨或下跌时，无论出于何种原因，动量交易者都会顺势而为。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-bear-musk-51639436863?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-bear-musk-51639436863?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114636896","content_text":"Shares of electric-vehicle leader Tesla crossed into bear-market territory today. That statement is technically true, but also a little tiring. Stocks, individually, don’t have bear or bull markets. That terms should be reserved for, well, the overall market. Still, the big dip in a mega-cap stock is noteworthy leaving investors wondering what might come next.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed down 5% at $966.41. The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed down 0.9%.\nThe Monday dip sent the company’s market cap below $1 trillion based on the number of shares outstanding, excluding management stock options. Shares are down 21% from the Nov. 4 closing high of $1,229.91. Shares are down 22% from the intraday high of $1,243.49.\nWhether or not bear markets should be measured from a closing high or an intraday high is the source of debate on Wall Street. But again, the debate doesn’t really matter in this instance because individual stocks don’t have bull and bear markets.\nWhether it’s a bear market or not isn’t the point for individual investors. The pain of a 20% drop is real.\nOne of the last times Tesla stock closed in bear-market territory was February 2021. (Yes, Barron’s wrote about the single stock bear market then, too.) Back then, interest rates were rising and highly valued tech stocks took it on the chin. Higher rates hurt the valuation of shares of faster-growing companies more than those of slow-growing mature companies—that’s just the way the math of higher interest rates works out.\nBack then it took about six months for the stock to retake its old highs. If that were to happen again, bullish investors would be waiting until June 2022 to see Tesla stock hit $1,300.\nThat would be a long wait for bulls, and while there is no way to know if that scenario will even unfold, there is a lot going on that could move the stock in the coming couple of months. Bullish and bearish Tesla investors will be watching for the startup of two new plants in Germany and Texas, the impact of those new plants on profit margins, the start of deliveries of the Tesla Cybertruck and the overall growth of EVs in the U.S., Europe, and China.\nWith all that coming, it raising the question of why the shares are struggling.\nTwo things might be at work. First, CEO Elon Musk is still selling stock. It creates an overhang. Some bulls might wait to buy until the large sales are over. Musk has at least 5 million or 6 million shares left to sell associated with his expiring stock options. He will probably be done selling by the end of 2021, but he might just Tweet out when he’s done. At current pace, we figure by year-end.\nSecond, there is the issue of Musk being named Time’s Person of the Year.Amazon.com (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos won that distinction in 1999, near a multiyear peak in that stock. Amazon shares went on to slide, and some investors think Tesla stock could do the same.\nThe Amazon comparison with Tesla doesn’t quite match up, however. The two companies are at very different stages of development when their top executives won Time’s distinction. Amazon had a market capitalization of $27 billion back then. Tesla’s market cap is now hovering around $1 trillion.\nStill, it’s a belief, and traders do odd things from time to time, justified or not. When stocks move upward, or downward, momentum traders will jump on the trend for whatever reason.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602936919,"gmtCreate":1638954609591,"gmtModify":1638954609591,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>now or never..&nbsp;To the moon!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>now or never..&nbsp;To the moon!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$now or never.. To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602936919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855872848,"gmtCreate":1635359127204,"gmtModify":1635359127279,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>It’s happening! All the way please !!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>It’s happening! All the way please !!","text":"$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$It’s happening! All the way please !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855872848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856142306,"gmtCreate":1635164461055,"gmtModify":1635164461131,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856142306","repostId":"2178142560","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842569279,"gmtCreate":1636202860440,"gmtModify":1636202860531,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842569279","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848614658,"gmtCreate":1635994356049,"gmtModify":1635994356158,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Wow how long will this last?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Wow how long will this last?","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Wow how long will this last?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87a70ec10a4c75609b6e62d0b4e93167","width":"750","height":"1869"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848614658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852686177,"gmtCreate":1635261971748,"gmtModify":1635261971917,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy to keep","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a7771bd419e73b0e06b9a4ed3a016a4","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852686177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875927948,"gmtCreate":1637595817195,"gmtModify":1637595817195,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Faith","listText":"Faith","text":"Faith","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875927948","repostId":"1176632260","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176632260","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637158579,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176632260?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-17 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176632260","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDespite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.</li>  <li>Palantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.</li>  <li>The stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.</li>  <li>I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第三季度收入增长放缓，但随着商业业务势头回升和股权薪酬放缓，Palantir的看涨论点越来越强。</li><li>Palantir的长期增长轨迹完好无损，管理层指导到2025年销售额复合年增长率为30%以上。此外，Palantir看起来已经像一台正在形成的自由现金流机器。</li><li>该股在目前水平上被低估，为投资者提供了产生长期阿尔法的绝佳机会。</li><li>我对Palantir的评级为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最新的季度业绩和前瞻性指引显示出增长减速的迹象。当销售增长放缓时，高市盈率增长股票往往会面临压力，这就是上周Palantir发生的情况。从近期来看，股市是一台投票机；然而，从长期来看，市场是一台称重机。要想成功，投资者必须着眼于长期。看着Palantir疲软的价格走势，人们很容易忘记Palantir是一家真正特殊的公司，拥有一条坚不可摧的护城河，其中包括卓越的技术、网络效应（政府和商业关系）、富有远见的管理和强大的品牌形象（与反恐和民族主义相关）。在我看来，Palantir最近的抛售是一个很好的长期买入机会，我将在以下部分概述我的推理。</blockquote></p><p> As you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>您可能知道，Palantir的愿景是成为这个星球上最重要的软件公司。如今，Palantir的边缘人工智能平台有潜力主导数据操作系统和分析领域，这恰好是一个快速增长的市场。随着每个季度的过去，Palantir都在赢得新客户，因此，Palantir的牛市论点不断增强。现在，Palantir的第三季度报告远非完美，因为该公司显示出增长放缓的迹象。然而，Palantir在商业领域不断增长的业务势头以及股票薪酬支出早就应该放缓的迹象强化了该公司的看涨论点。要了解有关我对Palantir的看涨论点的更多信息，我建议您阅读以下注释：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Palantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla</li>  <li>Palantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World</li>  <li>Palantir Stock: Building An Army</li> </ol> Before we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>Palantir与特斯拉惊人地相似</li><li>Palantir正在重新定义现代世界的操作系统</li><li>Palantir股票：建立一支军队</li></ol>在得出Palantir的公允价值和预期回报之前，让我们更详细地分析Palantir第三季度的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Breaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir第三季度业绩细分</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，Palantir的收入同比增长36%，达到3.92亿美元（高于管理层指导的3.85亿美元）。尽管Palantir超出了销售指引，但2021年第三季度的销售增长显着放缓（2021年第二季度同比增长49%）。在IT支出非常健康的时候（微软第三季度出色的业绩就证明了这一点），随着经济恢复正常，数据分析软件公司的表现应该会超出预期，为什么Palantir的增长会放缓，弱点来自哪里？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39599f1410f08819b841ca3cb5dad21f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年实现了令人印象深刻的60%以上的同比增长后，Palantir的政府业务增长在2021年第三季度大幅放缓。虽然Palantir的政府部门收入增速从Q2的66%y/y下降到Q3的34%y/y，但这些成绩绝不差。随着政府财政年度将于9月结束，经济放缓可能只是预算管理的结果。现在，Palantir的管理层一直坚称他们的重点是长期，我们知道，由于其合同的性质，Palantir的增长可能会不稳定。从积极的方面来看，Palantir在本季度确实赢得了一些交易，包括与美国陆军达成的价值9亿美元的提供情报数据结构和分析解决方案的交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9454707f695d2944d0831e1dcfc64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>与Palantir的政府业务相比，随着该公司根据“初创公司代工”计划向选定的零日公司（年轻的初创公司）提供代工平台，向下游转移，其商业业务正在加速增长。Palantir希望成为下一代科技巨头的主要数据操作系统提供商，这一下游举措为该软件提供商打开了巨大的市场。第三季度，Palantir的商业收入为1.74亿美元（约占总收入的44%），这意味着同比增长率为37%【美国商业收入同比增长加速至103%）。因此，很容易看出Palantir的多元化努力开始得到回报。与政府部门相比，商业部门是一个更大的市场；因此，Palantir在这里获得的牵引力超过了其政府业务的放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6979dbeb3a9f06a44e34258ff7c6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.</p><p><blockquote>在利润率方面，Palantir继续报告大量数据。2021年第三季度，Palantir的调整后。毛利率升至82%（同比增长约100个基点），贡献率扩大至57%（同比增长约100个基点）。现在，由于看似过高的股票薪酬计划，Palantir仍然没有盈利；然而，凭借其利润率，Palantir成为一家利润丰厚的企业只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cb8cf252718ea948f211d13fc9f4a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我很高兴看到Palantir产生强劲的自由现金流。2021年到目前为止，Palantir的调整后收入为3.2亿美元。自由现金流（调整后自由现金流利润率为29%）。Palantir仍处于高速增长阶段，因此，我可以看到Palantir在2020年代变成一台FCF机器——类似于当今的大型科技公司。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb504dc349b3c31a9307c531595e44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34495a6627f39f40acd745f911cfa795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir管理层预计第四季度收入为4.18亿美元（环比增长2600万美元（环比增长6.66%））。此外，Palantir还指导了adj。营业利润率将下降至22%；然而，他们预计2021年第三季度的增长率为22%，实际调整后的增长率为22%。营业利润率为30%。所以，我认为这个指南中包含了某种程度的沙袋。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7d14573f4162af9e75a0122f8b3618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，Palantir目前预计收入将增长至$15.27 B（同比增长40%）。自由现金流超过4亿美元。过去，Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp曾预计到2025年复合年增长率将达到30%以上。因此，我们可以自信地预计该公司明年将达到20亿美元的年收入里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Since its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.</p><p><blockquote>自公开上市以来，针对Palantir的看跌论点一直集中在商业客户的吸引力有限及其臃肿的股票薪酬计划上。然而，我认为Palantir正在证明这些论点是错误的，而第三季度是一个真正的信念助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛市论点越来越强</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，Palantir新增34家净新客户，即客户总数环比增长20%。商业客户数量环比增长46%，超过了总客户增长，代表了Palantir商业产品的明显业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65524e6cad63512b8c28545d2694003a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir现在向较小的公司提供其代工平台，我们预计商业客户数量将在未来几个季度和几年内膨胀。许多批评者将Palantir的SPAC投资称为购买收入的交易；然而，我们将这些交易视为战略投资，以证明Palantir软件平台在商业领域各种用例中的可行性。此外，Palantir的交易完成数据（分享如下）显示，Palantir在销售和营销方面的巨额投资正在获得相当可观的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8870c2d7c6a9a734f125d76047ce3c1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，Palantir的总剩余交易价值为$3.6 B[商业剩余交易价值为$2.2 B（同比增长101%）]，为该公司未来几年提供了强大的渠道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835f52a8f182efefcd5e9eaeb63bcfef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.</p><p><blockquote>对于Palantir的股东来说，一个特别棘手的问题是其臃肿的股权薪酬计划，这使得该公司看起来更像是一家员工合作社，而不是一家上市的营利性公司。尽管Palantir的股票薪酬（1.84亿美元；占总收入的47%）在2021年第三季度仍保持在超高水平，但这一趋势显然表明SBC正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dbf880d002116e8df5fd9bc5e7b370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir规模的扩大，收入迅速增长，而基于股票的薪酬[占收入的百分比]持续下降。因此，随着每个季度的过去，对Palantir的看跌论点越来越弱。现在，让我们确定Palantir的公允价值和预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <i><b>Assumptions:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>假设：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32607fd03d29b289a0e3bd216b0db20a\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Results:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>结果：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb459bd9b95d6732e939ad46b27dd73c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的模型，Palantir每股价值约31美元，即目前被低估约27%。因此，Palantir在这里似乎是一个不错的选择。然而，我们还必须评估股票的预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数，即35倍。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the expected returns for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Palantir的预期回报：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a12d02340653a630ec00875a082191\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述结果，Palantir的股票预计到2031年将从约23美元增长到约132美元，复合年增长率约为19%。由于这些预期回报高于我们15%的投资门槛率，我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking At The Technical Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看技术图</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，我强调了Palantir面临的以下风险：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.</li>  <li>As discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.</li> </ul> Source:Palantir Stock: Building An Army</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的管理层着眼于长期，预计该公司将积极投资以寻求未来的销售增长，换句话说，这意味着Palantir在短期内仍将无法盈利。随着通胀上升和债券收益率上升，以大倍数交易的亏损股票（例如，Palantir目前的市盈率约为35倍）可能会出现深度调整。因此，Palantir的股价在未来几个月可能会保持波动。</li><li>正如今天所讨论的，Palantir目前位于50移动平均线和200移动平均线（25美元）附近的关键支撑位，突破可能会进一步向20美元大关下跌。因此，我更喜欢在接下来的几个月里通过平均成本计划购买。</li></ul>资料来源：Palantir股票：建立一支军队</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此后，Palantir从反向头肩形态中的突破被证明是假的，该股在10月初的死亡交叉后已跌破200日均线趋势线。由于通胀环境，市场情绪对成长型股票相当悲观（少数市场宠儿除外），因此，Palantir在短期内可能还有更多下行空间。17.5美元至20美元区域应该会成为Palantir的有力支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25025246a456372f13a3e9a1fd49daeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> From a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.</p><p><blockquote>从长期角度来看，我仍然认为Palantir是一家下一代大型科技公司，未来很可能拥有数万亿美元的市值。随着商业领域的增长势头和政府国防软件领域的垄断市场份额，Palantir是未来十年最强劲的长期增长故事之一。尽管Palantir尚未盈利，但该公司已经产生了大量自由现金流（2021年为4亿美元）。此外，Palantir的股票薪酬也显示出放缓的迹象。此外，估值倍数（基于2022年20亿美元的收入，市盈率为23倍）在过去十个月左右大幅收缩。由于近期波动性持续存在，我继续建议使用平均成本计划在Palantir建仓（最多占投资组合的3-4%）。Palantir的股价为每股23美元，值得大力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Key Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>关键要点：我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格为23美元</b></i></blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Ahan Vashi</p><p><blockquote>本文由Ahan Vashi撰写</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: The Bull Thesis Keeps Getting Stronger<blockquote>Palantir股票：牛市论点不断增强</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-17 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.</li>  <li>Palantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.</li>  <li>The stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.</li>  <li>I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第三季度收入增长放缓，但随着商业业务势头回升和股权薪酬放缓，Palantir的看涨论点越来越强。</li><li>Palantir的长期增长轨迹完好无损，管理层指导到2025年销售额复合年增长率为30%以上。此外，Palantir看起来已经像一台正在形成的自由现金流机器。</li><li>该股在目前水平上被低估，为投资者提供了产生长期阿尔法的绝佳机会。</li><li>我对Palantir的评级为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)最新的季度业绩和前瞻性指引显示出增长减速的迹象。当销售增长放缓时，高市盈率增长股票往往会面临压力，这就是上周Palantir发生的情况。从近期来看，股市是一台投票机；然而，从长期来看，市场是一台称重机。要想成功，投资者必须着眼于长期。看着Palantir疲软的价格走势，人们很容易忘记Palantir是一家真正特殊的公司，拥有一条坚不可摧的护城河，其中包括卓越的技术、网络效应（政府和商业关系）、富有远见的管理和强大的品牌形象（与反恐和民族主义相关）。在我看来，Palantir最近的抛售是一个很好的长期买入机会，我将在以下部分概述我的推理。</blockquote></p><p> As you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:</p><p><blockquote>您可能知道，Palantir的愿景是成为这个星球上最重要的软件公司。如今，Palantir的边缘人工智能平台有潜力主导数据操作系统和分析领域，这恰好是一个快速增长的市场。随着每个季度的过去，Palantir都在赢得新客户，因此，Palantir的牛市论点不断增强。现在，Palantir的第三季度报告远非完美，因为该公司显示出增长放缓的迹象。然而，Palantir在商业领域不断增长的业务势头以及股票薪酬支出早就应该放缓的迹象强化了该公司的看涨论点。要了解有关我对Palantir的看涨论点的更多信息，我建议您阅读以下注释：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Palantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla</li>  <li>Palantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World</li>  <li>Palantir Stock: Building An Army</li> </ol> Before we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>Palantir与特斯拉惊人地相似</li><li>Palantir正在重新定义现代世界的操作系统</li><li>Palantir股票：建立一支军队</li></ol>在得出Palantir的公允价值和预期回报之前，让我们更详细地分析Palantir第三季度的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Breaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir第三季度业绩细分</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，Palantir的收入同比增长36%，达到3.92亿美元（高于管理层指导的3.85亿美元）。尽管Palantir超出了销售指引，但2021年第三季度的销售增长显着放缓（2021年第二季度同比增长49%）。在IT支出非常健康的时候（微软第三季度出色的业绩就证明了这一点），随着经济恢复正常，数据分析软件公司的表现应该会超出预期，为什么Palantir的增长会放缓，弱点来自哪里？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39599f1410f08819b841ca3cb5dad21f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年实现了令人印象深刻的60%以上的同比增长后，Palantir的政府业务增长在2021年第三季度大幅放缓。虽然Palantir的政府部门收入增速从Q2的66%y/y下降到Q3的34%y/y，但这些成绩绝不差。随着政府财政年度将于9月结束，经济放缓可能只是预算管理的结果。现在，Palantir的管理层一直坚称他们的重点是长期，我们知道，由于其合同的性质，Palantir的增长可能会不稳定。从积极的方面来看，Palantir在本季度确实赢得了一些交易，包括与美国陆军达成的价值9亿美元的提供情报数据结构和分析解决方案的交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9454707f695d2944d0831e1dcfc64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>与Palantir的政府业务相比，随着该公司根据“初创公司代工”计划向选定的零日公司（年轻的初创公司）提供代工平台，向下游转移，其商业业务正在加速增长。Palantir希望成为下一代科技巨头的主要数据操作系统提供商，这一下游举措为该软件提供商打开了巨大的市场。第三季度，Palantir的商业收入为1.74亿美元（约占总收入的44%），这意味着同比增长率为37%【美国商业收入同比增长加速至103%）。因此，很容易看出Palantir的多元化努力开始得到回报。与政府部门相比，商业部门是一个更大的市场；因此，Palantir在这里获得的牵引力超过了其政府业务的放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f6979dbeb3a9f06a44e34258ff7c6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.</p><p><blockquote>在利润率方面，Palantir继续报告大量数据。2021年第三季度，Palantir的调整后。毛利率升至82%（同比增长约100个基点），贡献率扩大至57%（同比增长约100个基点）。现在，由于看似过高的股票薪酬计划，Palantir仍然没有盈利；然而，凭借其利润率，Palantir成为一家利润丰厚的企业只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cb8cf252718ea948f211d13fc9f4a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我很高兴看到Palantir产生强劲的自由现金流。2021年到目前为止，Palantir的调整后收入为3.2亿美元。自由现金流（调整后自由现金流利润率为29%）。Palantir仍处于高速增长阶段，因此，我可以看到Palantir在2020年代变成一台FCF机器——类似于当今的大型科技公司。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceb504dc349b3c31a9307c531595e44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34495a6627f39f40acd745f911cfa795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir管理层预计第四季度收入为4.18亿美元（环比增长2600万美元（环比增长6.66%））。此外，Palantir还指导了adj。营业利润率将下降至22%；然而，他们预计2021年第三季度的增长率为22%，实际调整后的增长率为22%。营业利润率为30%。所以，我认为这个指南中包含了某种程度的沙袋。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da7d14573f4162af9e75a0122f8b3618\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，Palantir目前预计收入将增长至$15.27 B（同比增长40%）。自由现金流超过4亿美元。过去，Palantir首席执行官Alex Karp曾预计到2025年复合年增长率将达到30%以上。因此，我们可以自信地预计该公司明年将达到20亿美元的年收入里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Since its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.</p><p><blockquote>自公开上市以来，针对Palantir的看跌论点一直集中在商业客户的吸引力有限及其臃肿的股票薪酬计划上。然而，我认为Palantir正在证明这些论点是错误的，而第三季度是一个真正的信念助推器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛市论点越来越强</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，Palantir新增34家净新客户，即客户总数环比增长20%。商业客户数量环比增长46%，超过了总客户增长，代表了Palantir商业产品的明显业务势头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65524e6cad63512b8c28545d2694003a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir现在向较小的公司提供其代工平台，我们预计商业客户数量将在未来几个季度和几年内膨胀。许多批评者将Palantir的SPAC投资称为购买收入的交易；然而，我们将这些交易视为战略投资，以证明Palantir软件平台在商业领域各种用例中的可行性。此外，Palantir的交易完成数据（分享如下）显示，Palantir在销售和营销方面的巨额投资正在获得相当可观的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8870c2d7c6a9a734f125d76047ce3c1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，Palantir的总剩余交易价值为$3.6 B[商业剩余交易价值为$2.2 B（同比增长101%）]，为该公司未来几年提供了强大的渠道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835f52a8f182efefcd5e9eaeb63bcfef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2021年第三季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.</p><p><blockquote>对于Palantir的股东来说，一个特别棘手的问题是其臃肿的股权薪酬计划，这使得该公司看起来更像是一家员工合作社，而不是一家上市的营利性公司。尽管Palantir的股票薪酬（1.84亿美元；占总收入的47%）在2021年第三季度仍保持在超高水平，但这一趋势显然表明SBC正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dbf880d002116e8df5fd9bc5e7b370\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir规模的扩大，收入迅速增长，而基于股票的薪酬[占收入的百分比]持续下降。因此，随着每个季度的过去，对Palantir的看跌论点越来越弱。现在，让我们确定Palantir的公允价值和预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</blockquote></p><p> To find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了找到Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <i><b>Assumptions:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>假设：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32607fd03d29b289a0e3bd216b0db20a\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Results:</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>结果：</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb459bd9b95d6732e939ad46b27dd73c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的模型，Palantir每股价值约31美元，即目前被低估约27%。因此，Palantir在这里似乎是一个不错的选择。然而，我们还必须评估股票的预期回报，以做出明智的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数，即35倍。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the expected returns for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Palantir的预期回报：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a12d02340653a630ec00875a082191\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述结果，Palantir的股票预计到2031年将从约23美元增长到约132美元，复合年增长率约为19%。由于这些预期回报高于我们15%的投资门槛率，我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格约为23美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking At The Technical Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看技术图</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，我强调了Palantir面临的以下风险：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.</li>  <li>As discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.</li> </ul> Source:Palantir Stock: Building An Army</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的管理层着眼于长期，预计该公司将积极投资以寻求未来的销售增长，换句话说，这意味着Palantir在短期内仍将无法盈利。随着通胀上升和债券收益率上升，以大倍数交易的亏损股票（例如，Palantir目前的市盈率约为35倍）可能会出现深度调整。因此，Palantir的股价在未来几个月可能会保持波动。</li><li>正如今天所讨论的，Palantir目前位于50移动平均线和200移动平均线（25美元）附近的关键支撑位，突破可能会进一步向20美元大关下跌。因此，我更喜欢在接下来的几个月里通过平均成本计划购买。</li></ul>资料来源：Palantir股票：建立一支军队</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此后，Palantir从反向头肩形态中的突破被证明是假的，该股在10月初的死亡交叉后已跌破200日均线趋势线。由于通胀环境，市场情绪对成长型股票相当悲观（少数市场宠儿除外），因此，Palantir在短期内可能还有更多下行空间。17.5美元至20美元区域应该会成为Palantir的有力支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25025246a456372f13a3e9a1fd49daeb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> From a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.</p><p><blockquote>从长期角度来看，我仍然认为Palantir是一家下一代大型科技公司，未来很可能拥有数万亿美元的市值。随着商业领域的增长势头和政府国防软件领域的垄断市场份额，Palantir是未来十年最强劲的长期增长故事之一。尽管Palantir尚未盈利，但该公司已经产生了大量自由现金流（2021年为4亿美元）。此外，Palantir的股票薪酬也显示出放缓的迹象。此外，估值倍数（基于2022年20亿美元的收入，市盈率为23倍）在过去十个月左右大幅收缩。由于近期波动性持续存在，我继续建议使用平均成本计划在Palantir建仓（最多占投资组合的3-4%）。Palantir的股价为每股23美元，值得大力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>Key Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>关键要点：我将Palantir评为强力买入，价格为23美元</b></i></blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Ahan Vashi</p><p><blockquote>本文由Ahan Vashi撰写</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469410-palantir-stock-earnings-bull-thesis-stronger-commercial-business-momentum\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4469410-palantir-stock-earnings-bull-thesis-stronger-commercial-business-momentum","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176632260","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite registering a deceleration in revenue growth in Q3, the bullish thesis for Palantir is getting stronger as commercial business momentum picks up and share-based compensation moderates.\nPalantir's long-term growth trajectory is intact, with management guiding for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Furthermore, Palantir is already looking like a free cash flow machine in the making.\nThe stock is undervalued at current levels, offering investors an excellent opportunity to generate long-term alpha.\nI rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nPalantir's (PLTR) latest quarterly results and forward guidance showed signs of decelerating growth. When sales growth decelerates, high-multiple growth stocks tend to come under pressure, and that's what happened with Palantir last week. In the near term, the stock market is a voting machine; however, in the long term, the market is a weighing machine. To be successful, investors must focus on the long term. Looking at Palantir's weak price action, it is easy to forget that Palantir is a truly special company with an impenetrable moat that includes superior technology, network effects (government and commercial relationships), visionary management, and a strong brand image (tied to anti-terrorism and nationalism). In my view, the latest sell-off in Palantir is a great long-term buying opportunity, and I will outline my reasoning in the following sections.\nAs you may know, Palantir's vision is to become the most important software company on this planet. Today, Palantir's edge AI platforms have the potential to dominate the data OS and analytics space, which happens to be a rapidly growing market. With each passing quarter, Palantir is winning new customers, and as such, the bull thesis for Palantir keeps getting stronger. Now, Palantir's Q3 report was far from perfect as the company showed signs of a growth slowdown. However, Palantir's growing business momentum in the commercial sector and signs of a long-overdue moderation in stock-based compensation expenses strengthen the bullish thesis for the company. To learn more about my bullish thesis on Palantir, I recommend you to read the following notes:\n\nPalantir Is Uncannily Similar To Tesla\nPalantir Is Redefining Operating Systems For The Modern World\nPalantir Stock: Building An Army\n\nBefore we derive the fair value and expected returns for Palantir, let's analyze Palantir's Q3 results in more detail.\nBreaking Down Palantir's Q3 Results\nIn Q3, Palantir's revenue grew by 36% y/y to come in at $392M (ahead of management's guidance of $385M). Although Palantir beat on sales guidance, the sales growth decelerated significantly in Q3 2021 (from the 49% y/y growth seen in Q2 2021). At a time when IT spending is very healthy (as evidenced by Microsoft's stellar Q3 results), and data analytics software firms are supposed to outperform expectations as the economy returns to normalcy, why is Palantir's growth slowing down, where is the weakness coming from?\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nAfter registering an impressive 60%+ y/y growth in the first half of 2021, Palantir's government business growth slowed down drastically in Q3 2021. Although Palantir's government sector revenue growth rate dropped from 66% y/y in Q2 to 34% y/y in Q3, these results are by no means poor. The slowdown could just be a result of budget management as the government fiscal year ends in September. Now, Palantir's management has always maintained that their focus is on the long-term, and we understand that Palantir's growth could be lumpy due to the nature of its contracts. On a positive note, Palantir did win some deals during this quarter, including the $900M deal with the US Army for providing Intelligence Data Fabric and Analytics solutions.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nIn contrast to Palantir's government business, its commercial business is experiencing an acceleration in growth as the company moves downstream by offering its Foundry platform to select Day Zero companies (young startups) under its \"Foundry for Startups\" initiative. Palantir wants to become the primary data operating system provider for the next generation of tech behemoths, and this move downstream unlocks a massive market for the software provider. In Q3, Palantir's commercial revenue came in at $174M (~44% of total revenues), implying a growth rate of 37% y/y [US commercial revenue growth accelerated to 103% y/y). Hence, it is easy to see that Palantir's diversification efforts are starting to pay off. The commercial sector is a much larger market compared to the governmental sector; hence, Palantir gaining traction here outweighs its government business slowdown.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nOn the margin front, Palantir continues to report massive numbers. In Q3 2021, Palantir's adj. gross margin rose to 82% (up ~100 bps y/y), and the contribution margin expanded to 57% (up ~100 bps y/y). Now, Palantir is still not profitable due to a seemingly exorbitant stock-based compensation plan; however, with its margin profile, it is only a matter of time before Palantir becomes a very profitable business.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor now, I am happy to see robust free cash flow generation from Palantir. So far in 2021, Palantir has generated $320M in adj. free cash flow (at 29% adj. FCF margin). Palantir is still in the hyper-growth phase, and so, I can see Palantir turning into an FCF machine over the 2020s - akin to today's big tech companies.\n\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor Q4, Palantir's management guided for revenues of $418M (sequential growth of $26M (+6.66% q/q)). Furthermore, Palantir guided for adj. operating margins to decline to 22%; however, they guided for 22% for Q3 2021, and the actual adj. operating margins came in at 30%. So, I think there's some level of sandbagging embedded into this guidance.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nFor 2021, Palantir is now expected to grow revenue to $1.527B (up 40% y/y) with adj. free cash flow of more than $400M. In the past, Alex Karp, Palantir's CEO, has guided for 30%+ CAGR sales growth through 2025. Hence, we can confidently expect the company to hit the $2B annual revenue milestone next year.\nSince its public listing, the bearish arguments against Palantir have been centered around limited traction among commercial customers and its bloated stock-based compensation plan. However, I think Palantir is proving these arguments to be false, and Q3 was a real conviction booster.\nThe Bull Thesis Is Getting Stronger\nIn Q3 2021, Palantir added 34 net new customers, i.e., 20% q/q growth in total customers. The commercial customer count outpaced total customer growth by growing at 46% q/q, representing clear business momentum for Palantir's commercial offerings.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nWith Palantir now offering its Foundry platform to smaller companies, we can expect this commercial customer count to inflate over coming quarters and years. Many critics have labeled Palantir's SPAC investments as deals for buying revenue; however, we see these deals as strategic investments to prove the viability of Palantir's software platform across various use-cases in the commercial sector. Furthermore, Palantir's deal closure data (shared below) shows that Palantir's big investments in Sales and Marketing are paying off quite handsomely.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nAt the end of Q3, Palantir had $3.6B in total remaining deal value [commercial remaining deal value of $2.2B (up 101% y/y)], giving the company a strong pipeline for the next few years.\nSource: Palantir Q3 2021 Earnings Presentation\nA particularly thorny issue for Palantir's shareholders has been its bloated share-based compensation plan that makes the company look more like an employee cooperative rather than a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. Although Palantir's stock-based compensation ($184M; 47% of total revenues) remained at ultra-high levels in Q3 2021, the trend is clearly pointing towards moderation in SBC.\nSource: YCharts\nAs Palantir scales up, revenues are growing rapidly, and the stock-based compensation [as a percentage of revenue] continues to decline. Hence, the bearish argument against Palantir is getting weaker with every passing quarter. Now, let's determine Palantir's fair value and expected returns to make an informed investment decision.\nPalantir's Fair Value And Expected Return\nTo find Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nAssumptions:\n\nResults:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAccording to our model, Palantir is worth ~$31 per share, i.e., it is currently undervalued by ~27%. Hence, Palantir seems like a good buy here. However, we must also assess the expected returns for the stock to make an informed investment decision.\nTo calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple, i.e., 35x, to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns cross our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.\nHere are the expected returns for Palantir:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per the results above, Palantir's stock is projected to grow from ~$23 to ~$132 at a CAGR of ~19% by 2031. Since these expected returns are higher than our investment hurdle rate of 15%, I rate Palantir a strong buy at ~$23.\nLooking At The Technical Picture\nIn late September, I highlighted the following risks for Palantir:\n\nPalantir's management is focused on the long-term, and the company is expected to invest aggressively in the hunt for future sales growth, which in other words means Palantir will remain unprofitable in the near term. With rising inflation and growing bond yields, loss-making equities trading at big multiples (e.g., Palantir currently trades at ~35x P/S) could be in for a deep correction. Therefore, Palantir's stock could remain volatile over the next few months.\nAs discussed today, Palantir now sits at crucial support around its 50-SMA and 200-SMA ($25), and a breakdown could open further downside move here towards the $20 mark. Hence, I prefer buying through a dollar-cost averaging plan over the next few months.\n\nSource:Palantir Stock: Building An Army\nSince then, Palantir's breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern proved to be a head fake, and the stock has broken down below its 200-DMA trendline after a death cross in early October. Due to an inflationary environment, the market sentiment is pretty bearish towards growth stocks (barring a few market darlings), and so, Palantir could yet have more downside in the short term. The $17.5 to $20 zone should serve as strong support for Palantir.\nSource: YCharts\nConcluding Thoughts\nFrom a long-term perspective, I continue to think of Palantir as a next-gen big tech company that could very well command a market cap of trillions of dollars down the road. With growing momentum in the commercial sector and a monopolistic market share in the governmental defense software space, Palantir is one of the strongest long-term growth stories for the next decade. Although Palantir is not yet profitable, the company already generates massive amounts of free cash flow ($400M in 2021). Furthermore, Palantir's stock-based compensation is showing signs of moderation. Additionally, the valuation multiple (P/S of 23x based on 2022E revenue of $2B) has contracted significantly over the last ten months or so. With near-term volatility here to stay, I continue to recommend the use of a dollar-cost averaging plan to build a position in Palantir (up to 3-4% of portfolio). At $23 per share, Palantir is a strong buy.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Palantir a strong buy at $23\nThis article was written by Ahan Vashi","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852687679,"gmtCreate":1635262209165,"gmtModify":1635262234344,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woooo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Woooo","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Woooo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3bebefc9eaed60e355366f0987dd4fb","width":"750","height":"1697"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852687679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852689866,"gmtCreate":1635261772876,"gmtModify":1635261772949,"author":{"id":"4097984683297470","authorId":"4097984683297470","name":"Jibaban","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e6aa6f1c9026342f8a5af6a5329111f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097984683297470","idStr":"4097984683297470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep long term&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Buy to keep long term&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Buy to keep long term","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9e153eff2a436f0132e6df761f8018","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852689866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}