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2021-12-15

Ok

U.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed<blockquote>由于投资者等待美联储，PPI 读数公布后美国股市开盘走低</blockquote>

2021-12-08

Why didn’t the author write and post this article on 7 Dec? 😂

The Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote>

2021-11-30

Who likes to see more green days? 💚💚💚

2021-11-20

Technology!

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2021-11-18

2021 & beyond: Metaverse

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2021-11-16

Like!

Razer execs plan to value firm at up to US$4.5 bln in take-private deal -sources<blockquote>Razer 高管计划在私有化交易中对公司估值高达 45 亿美元 - 消息人士</blockquote>

2021-11-16

Nice!

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2021-11-16

Meme stock?

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2021-11-07

Nice post!

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2021-11-05

Hope travel will resume soon.

5 Stocks To Watch For November 5, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 5 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>

2021-11-02

Why?

Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>

2021-10-27

Boring is Gold’

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2021-10-26

Rally on!

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2021-10-25

Come on AAPL 😘

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2021-10-24

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@不二说价值:📢请关注我的youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。📢 我会每周给1-2支美港股做评分，如果您希望我对某一支股票评分，请在评论区留言或点赞别人的留言。我会优先为热度高的公司评分！✅配合视频站，我的空间站专属内容大幅增加，每月还会有独家现金福利哦！具体请看：十万刀空间站独家内容和丰富福利介绍$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$ $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ $Twitter(TWTR)$

2021-10-14

It’s earnings week. Stay the course.

Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>

2021-10-11

Everything has a season.

China tech stocks are making a big comeback<blockquote>中国科技股强势回归</blockquote>

2021-10-08

the genie wants to grant wishes (pros) but his Master controls him (cons)…

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2021-10-06

Anyone keeps track these ‘predictions’?

The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote>

2021-10-06

Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.

Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639492308,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179453620?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed<blockquote>由于投资者等待美联储，PPI 读数公布后美国股市开盘走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179453620","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed,Nasdaq Composite down 1.2% at 15,229.","content":"<p>U.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed,Nasdaq Composite down 1.2% at 15,229.96,S&amp;P 500 down 0.7% at 4,635.65,Dow industrials down 98 points, or 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者等待美联储，PPI 数据公布后美国股市开盘走低，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1.2%，至 15,229.96 点，标准普尔 500 指数下跌 0.7%，至 4,635.65 点，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 98 点，或 0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;shares were among the biggest early droppers on the S&amp;P 500, falling 2.1% premarket after CEO Elon Musk announced that that he has sold another $906.5 million in shares.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价是标普500早盘跌幅最大的股票之一，在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克宣布再出售 9.065 亿美元股票后，盘前下跌 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Fellow automaker&nbsp;Ford&nbsp;also fell, down 1.7% following news that by 2030Toyotawould beinvesting $35 billion into battery-powered electronic vehicles, a space where Ford has sought to establish itself as a leader.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商福特也下跌，下跌 1.7%，此前有消息称，到 2030 年，丰田将投资 350 亿美元用于电池驱动的电动汽车，福特一直寻求在该领域确立自己的领导者地位。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer&nbsp;shares rose nearly 1% after final results of tests on its Covid drug showed it reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 89% in high-risk patients.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司股价上涨近 1%，此前其 Covid 药物的最终测试结果显示，该药物可将高风险患者的住院人数和死亡人数减少 89%。</blockquote></p><p> Research from Goldman Sachs showed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 is powered by five stocks&nbsp;that have accounted for 51% of its return since the end of April. Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia and Tesla account for more than one-third of the S&amp;P 500's 26% return this year, according to Goldman.</p><p><blockquote>高盛的研究显示，自 4 月底以来，标普500由五只股票驱动，这五只股票占其回报率的 51%。据高盛称，微软、谷歌、苹果、英伟达和特斯拉今年占标准普尔 500 指数 26% 回报率的三分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> Traders are awaiting a decision from the Fed on&nbsp;how quickly the central bank will tighten monetary policy&nbsp;amid a backdrop of fresh inflation numbers that reflected the fastest annual increase in nearly four decades. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) soared 6.8% in November compared to last year, according to figures published last week.</p><p><blockquote>交易员正在等待美联储就美联储收紧货币政策的速度做出决定，因为新的通胀数据反映了近四十年来最快的年度增幅。根据上周公布的数据，11 月份劳工部消费者价格指数 (CPI) 较去年飙升 6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to hold its two-day policy-setting meeting starting on Tuesday, followed by the release of the monetary policy statement and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Wednesday. An updated Summary of Economic Projections outlining individual members' outlooks for economic conditions and interest rates is set to accompany the statement.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）定于周二开始举行为期两天的政策制定会议，随后美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周三发布货币政策声明和讲话。该声明将附有最新的经济预测摘要，概述个别成员对经济状况和利率的展望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has been under pressure to control rising inflation levels, as investors watch for clues of a faster taper that could set the stage for earlier rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直面临着控制不断上升的通胀水平的压力，因为投资者正在关注更快缩减通胀的线索，这可能会为早期加息创造条件。</blockquote></p><p> “Because inflation expectations do appear to be adaptive, our view is that the longer inflation stays elevated, the greater the risk that consumers adjust their behaviors in a way that contributes to persistently elevated inflation” wrote PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding in a&nbsp;recent note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）经济学家蒂芙尼-怀尔丁（Tiffany Wilding）在最近给客户的一份报告中写道：”由于通胀预期似乎确实具有适应性，我们的观点是，通胀持续高企的时间越长，消费者调整行为的风险就越大。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe the Fed will want to manage this risk by shortening the time over which it winds down its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), aiming to end the program in March 2022, while also signaling a June rate hike is likely,” said Wilding.</p><p><blockquote>“怀尔丁说：”我们认为，美联储将希望通过缩短结束购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的时间来管理这一风险，目标是在2022年3月结束该计划，同时也暗示可能在6月加息。</blockquote></p><p> PIMCO managing director and portfolio manager Sonali Pier also separately&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live&nbsp;that the firm expects to see two hikes in 2022, three hikes in 2023, and potentially four in 2024, with the Fed trying to bring the policy rate to neutral.</p><p><blockquote>太平洋投资管理公司董事总经理兼投资组合经理索纳利·皮尔 (Sonali Pier) 也分别向雅虎财经直播表示，该公司预计 2022 年将加息两次，2023 年将加息三次，2024 年可能加息四次，美联储试图将政策利率提高到中性。</blockquote></p><p> “Amid proliferating signs of solid growth and a robust job market, various measures depict a deeply troubled economy,” wrote&nbsp;Oxford Economics senior economist Bob Schwartzin a new report. \"Households are downbeat, according to sentiment surveys, and the so-called 'misery index' that adds together inflation and unemployment hovers around recession levels.\"</p><p><blockquote>“牛津经济研究院高级经济学家鲍勃-施瓦津（Bob Schwartzin）在一份新报告中写道：”在稳健增长和强劲就业市场的迹象不断增多的情况下，各种指标都描绘出一个深陷困境的经济。“根据情绪调查，家庭情绪悲观，将通货膨胀和失业率加起来的所谓‘痛苦指数’徘徊在衰退水平附近。”</blockquote></p><p> Markets&nbsp;await a trove of fresh economic data this week. November retail sales, out on Wednesday, are expected to rise by 0.8%, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. And November housing starts are forecasted to see a month-over-month increase of 3.3%.</p><p><blockquote>市场正在等待本周大量新的经济数据。根据彭博的一致估计，周三公布的 11 月份零售额预计将增长 0.8%。预计11月份新屋开工率将环比增长3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley projects the U.S. unemployment rate will drop to 3% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利预计2022年美国失业率将降至3%。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's stunning to see how much the rate has fallen in the last five months,” Morgan chief U.S. economist&nbsp;Michael Feroli told Yahoo Finance Live. “We expect that pace of decline to slow, but it doesn't take much to get below 4%, even with a tick up in the labor participation rate which has been depressed over the last year and a half.\"</p><p><blockquote>“摩根首席美国经济学家迈克尔-费罗利（Michael Feroli）对雅虎财经直播说：”看到过去五个月的比率下降了多少，真是令人震惊。“我们预计下降速度会放缓，但即使劳动参与率在过去一年半的时间里一直处于低迷状态，也不需要太多时间就能降到 4% 以下”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed<blockquote>由于投资者等待美联储，PPI 读数公布后美国股市开盘走低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed<blockquote>由于投资者等待美联储，PPI 读数公布后美国股市开盘走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-14 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed,Nasdaq Composite down 1.2% at 15,229.96,S&amp;P 500 down 0.7% at 4,635.65,Dow industrials down 98 points, or 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者等待美联储，PPI 数据公布后美国股市开盘走低，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1.2%，至 15,229.96 点，标准普尔 500 指数下跌 0.7%，至 4,635.65 点，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 98 点，或 0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;shares were among the biggest early droppers on the S&amp;P 500, falling 2.1% premarket after CEO Elon Musk announced that that he has sold another $906.5 million in shares.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价是标普500早盘跌幅最大的股票之一，在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克宣布再出售 9.065 亿美元股票后，盘前下跌 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Fellow automaker&nbsp;Ford&nbsp;also fell, down 1.7% following news that by 2030Toyotawould beinvesting $35 billion into battery-powered electronic vehicles, a space where Ford has sought to establish itself as a leader.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商福特也下跌，下跌 1.7%，此前有消息称，到 2030 年，丰田将投资 350 亿美元用于电池驱动的电动汽车，福特一直寻求在该领域确立自己的领导者地位。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer&nbsp;shares rose nearly 1% after final results of tests on its Covid drug showed it reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 89% in high-risk patients.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司股价上涨近 1%，此前其 Covid 药物的最终测试结果显示，该药物可将高风险患者的住院人数和死亡人数减少 89%。</blockquote></p><p> Research from Goldman Sachs showed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 is powered by five stocks&nbsp;that have accounted for 51% of its return since the end of April. Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia and Tesla account for more than one-third of the S&amp;P 500's 26% return this year, according to Goldman.</p><p><blockquote>高盛的研究显示，自 4 月底以来，标普500由五只股票驱动，这五只股票占其回报率的 51%。据高盛称，微软、谷歌、苹果、英伟达和特斯拉今年占标准普尔 500 指数 26% 回报率的三分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> Traders are awaiting a decision from the Fed on&nbsp;how quickly the central bank will tighten monetary policy&nbsp;amid a backdrop of fresh inflation numbers that reflected the fastest annual increase in nearly four decades. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) soared 6.8% in November compared to last year, according to figures published last week.</p><p><blockquote>交易员正在等待美联储就美联储收紧货币政策的速度做出决定，因为新的通胀数据反映了近四十年来最快的年度增幅。根据上周公布的数据，11 月份劳工部消费者价格指数 (CPI) 较去年飙升 6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to hold its two-day policy-setting meeting starting on Tuesday, followed by the release of the monetary policy statement and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Wednesday. An updated Summary of Economic Projections outlining individual members' outlooks for economic conditions and interest rates is set to accompany the statement.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）定于周二开始举行为期两天的政策制定会议，随后美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周三发布货币政策声明和讲话。该声明将附有最新的经济预测摘要，概述个别成员对经济状况和利率的展望。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has been under pressure to control rising inflation levels, as investors watch for clues of a faster taper that could set the stage for earlier rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直面临着控制不断上升的通胀水平的压力，因为投资者正在关注更快缩减通胀的线索，这可能会为早期加息创造条件。</blockquote></p><p> “Because inflation expectations do appear to be adaptive, our view is that the longer inflation stays elevated, the greater the risk that consumers adjust their behaviors in a way that contributes to persistently elevated inflation” wrote PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding in a&nbsp;recent note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>“太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）经济学家蒂芙尼-怀尔丁（Tiffany Wilding）在最近给客户的一份报告中写道：”由于通胀预期似乎确实具有适应性，我们的观点是，通胀持续高企的时间越长，消费者调整行为的风险就越大。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe the Fed will want to manage this risk by shortening the time over which it winds down its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), aiming to end the program in March 2022, while also signaling a June rate hike is likely,” said Wilding.</p><p><blockquote>“怀尔丁说：”我们认为，美联储将希望通过缩短结束购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的时间来管理这一风险，目标是在2022年3月结束该计划，同时也暗示可能在6月加息。</blockquote></p><p> PIMCO managing director and portfolio manager Sonali Pier also separately&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live&nbsp;that the firm expects to see two hikes in 2022, three hikes in 2023, and potentially four in 2024, with the Fed trying to bring the policy rate to neutral.</p><p><blockquote>太平洋投资管理公司董事总经理兼投资组合经理索纳利·皮尔 (Sonali Pier) 也分别向雅虎财经直播表示，该公司预计 2022 年将加息两次，2023 年将加息三次，2024 年可能加息四次，美联储试图将政策利率提高到中性。</blockquote></p><p> “Amid proliferating signs of solid growth and a robust job market, various measures depict a deeply troubled economy,” wrote&nbsp;Oxford Economics senior economist Bob Schwartzin a new report. \"Households are downbeat, according to sentiment surveys, and the so-called 'misery index' that adds together inflation and unemployment hovers around recession levels.\"</p><p><blockquote>“牛津经济研究院高级经济学家鲍勃-施瓦津（Bob Schwartzin）在一份新报告中写道：”在稳健增长和强劲就业市场的迹象不断增多的情况下，各种指标都描绘出一个深陷困境的经济。“根据情绪调查，家庭情绪悲观，将通货膨胀和失业率加起来的所谓‘痛苦指数’徘徊在衰退水平附近。”</blockquote></p><p> Markets&nbsp;await a trove of fresh economic data this week. November retail sales, out on Wednesday, are expected to rise by 0.8%, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. And November housing starts are forecasted to see a month-over-month increase of 3.3%.</p><p><blockquote>市场正在等待本周大量新的经济数据。根据彭博的一致估计，周三公布的 11 月份零售额预计将增长 0.8%。预计11月份新屋开工率将环比增长3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley projects the U.S. unemployment rate will drop to 3% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利预计2022年美国失业率将降至3%。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's stunning to see how much the rate has fallen in the last five months,” Morgan chief U.S. economist&nbsp;Michael Feroli told Yahoo Finance Live. “We expect that pace of decline to slow, but it doesn't take much to get below 4%, even with a tick up in the labor participation rate which has been depressed over the last year and a half.\"</p><p><blockquote>“摩根首席美国经济学家迈克尔-费罗利（Michael Feroli）对雅虎财经直播说：”看到过去五个月的比率下降了多少，真是令人震惊。“我们预计下降速度会放缓，但即使劳动参与率在过去一年半的时间里一直处于低迷状态，也不需要太多时间就能降到 4% 以下”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179453620","content_text":"U.S.Stocks open lower after PPI reading as investors await Fed,Nasdaq Composite down 1.2% at 15,229.96,S&P 500 down 0.7% at 4,635.65,Dow industrials down 98 points, or 0.3%.\nTesla shares were among the biggest early droppers on the S&P 500, falling 2.1% premarket after CEO Elon Musk announced that that he has sold another $906.5 million in shares.\nFellow automaker Ford also fell, down 1.7% following news that by 2030Toyotawould beinvesting $35 billion into battery-powered electronic vehicles, a space where Ford has sought to establish itself as a leader.\nPfizer shares rose nearly 1% after final results of tests on its Covid drug showed it reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 89% in high-risk patients.\nResearch from Goldman Sachs showed the S&P 500 is powered by five stocks that have accounted for 51% of its return since the end of April. Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia and Tesla account for more than one-third of the S&P 500's 26% return this year, according to Goldman.\nTraders are awaiting a decision from the Fed on how quickly the central bank will tighten monetary policy amid a backdrop of fresh inflation numbers that reflected the fastest annual increase in nearly four decades. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) soared 6.8% in November compared to last year, according to figures published last week.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to hold its two-day policy-setting meeting starting on Tuesday, followed by the release of the monetary policy statement and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Wednesday. An updated Summary of Economic Projections outlining individual members' outlooks for economic conditions and interest rates is set to accompany the statement.\nThe Fed has been under pressure to control rising inflation levels, as investors watch for clues of a faster taper that could set the stage for earlier rate hikes.\n“Because inflation expectations do appear to be adaptive, our view is that the longer inflation stays elevated, the greater the risk that consumers adjust their behaviors in a way that contributes to persistently elevated inflation” wrote PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding in a recent note to clients.\n“We believe the Fed will want to manage this risk by shortening the time over which it winds down its purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), aiming to end the program in March 2022, while also signaling a June rate hike is likely,” said Wilding.\nPIMCO managing director and portfolio manager Sonali Pier also separately told Yahoo Finance Live that the firm expects to see two hikes in 2022, three hikes in 2023, and potentially four in 2024, with the Fed trying to bring the policy rate to neutral.\n“Amid proliferating signs of solid growth and a robust job market, various measures depict a deeply troubled economy,” wrote Oxford Economics senior economist Bob Schwartzin a new report. \"Households are downbeat, according to sentiment surveys, and the so-called 'misery index' that adds together inflation and unemployment hovers around recession levels.\"\nMarkets await a trove of fresh economic data this week. November retail sales, out on Wednesday, are expected to rise by 0.8%, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. And November housing starts are forecasted to see a month-over-month increase of 3.3%.\nMeanwhile, Morgan Stanley projects the U.S. unemployment rate will drop to 3% in 2022.\n\"It's stunning to see how much the rate has fallen in the last five months,” Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli told Yahoo Finance Live. “We expect that pace of decline to slow, but it doesn't take much to get below 4%, even with a tick up in the labor participation rate which has been depressed over the last year and a half.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602976465,"gmtCreate":1638965798907,"gmtModify":1638965798996,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why didn’t the author write and post this article on 7 Dec? 😂","listText":"Why didn’t the author write and post this article on 7 Dec? 😂","text":"Why didn’t the author write and post this article on 7 Dec? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602976465","repostId":"1119697932","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119697932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638948374,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119697932?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119697932","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for ","content":"<p>Don’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>不要被大型科技股的上涨所迷惑。可能会有更多的痛苦，给标普500带来更多的麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> There’s no denying that these stocks are on the up again, for now.Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Meta Platforms&nbsp;(FB),Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN),Netflix&nbsp;(NFLX),Alphabet&nbsp;(GOOGL),Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), and&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA) have all risen between 3% and 10% from the low points reached in their recent pullbacks. Stocks had been sliding from mid-November until late last week, as the Federal Reserve signaled that it might move sooner than planned to halt the bond purchases it has used to prop up the economy during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，这些股票目前又在上涨。苹果（AAPL）、Meta Platforms（FB）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Netflix（NFLX）、Alphabet（GOOGL）、微软（MSFT）和特斯拉（TSLA）都从最近回调时达到的低点上涨了 3% 到 10%。从 11 月中旬到上周晚些时候，股市一直在下滑，因为美联储表示可能会比原计划更早采取行动，停止在疫情期间用于支撑经济的债券购买。</blockquote></p><p> Less money moving into long-dated Treasury bonds allows their prices to fall, all else being equal, pushing yields on the debt higher. Those higher interest rates reduce the current, discounted value of future profits—and investors in these tech giants are counting on big profits many years down the line.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，流入长期国债的资金减少，导致其价格下跌，从而推高了债务收益率。这些较高的利率降低了未来利润的当前贴现价值——这些科技巨头的投资者指望未来许多年内获得巨额利润。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s far from certain that the pain for Big Tech stocks is over.</p><p><blockquote>但大型科技股的痛苦还不能确定是否已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s change in stance will make gains hard to come by for Big Tech stocks. Central banks effectively print money to buy bonds, so the more they purchase,, the bigger their balance sheets become. Less bond buying means slower balance-sheet growth, which makes a difference for Big Tech stocks, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美联储立场的转变将使大型科技股难以上涨。中央银行实际上印钞是为了购买债券，所以他们购买的债券越多，他们的资产负债表就越大。美国银行表示，债券购买减少意味着资产负债表增长放缓，这对大型科技股产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Its data show a close correlation between the size of central-bank balance sheets and Big Tech valuations. And the aggregate size of the balance sheets of the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England has flattened out at about $25 trillion, while the market capitalization of the Big Tech stocks has continued to rise.</p><p><blockquote>其数据显示，央行资产负债表规模与大型科技公司估值之间存在密切相关。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行和英国央行的资产负债表总规模已持平至25万亿美元左右，而大型科技股的市值则持续上升。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that based on history, a central-bank balance sheet of about $25 trillion implies an the aggregate market capitalization for those Big Tech stocks of around $9 trillion, according to Bank of America’s data. That would mean a decline of about 20% from the current $11.3 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，根据历史数据，根据美国银行的数据，中央银行约 25 万亿美元的资产负债表意味着这些大型科技股的总市值约为 9 万亿美元。这意味着比目前的 11.3 万亿美元下降约 20%。</blockquote></p><p> A separate indicator also hints that the best of Big Tech’s outperformance may be over. The group’s gains have outpaced the S&amp;P 500’s by so much recently that its total market cap is now the highest portion of the S&amp;P 500’s total value since August 2020. That, of course, was just before the Big Tech stocks all experienced corrections, or declines of at least 10%.</p><p><blockquote>另一个指标也暗示，大型科技公司的最佳表现可能已经结束。该集团的涨幅最近远远超过了标普500，以至于其总市值目前是自 2020 年 8 月以来标普500总市值中所占比例最高的。当然，那是在大型科技股都经历调整或至少下跌 10% 之前。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, the last time Big Tech was so large compared to the broader market was in 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，上一次大型科技公司相对于更广泛的市场规模如此之大是在 2000 年，也就是互联网泡沫破裂之前。</blockquote></p><p> A poor performance by Big Tech could drag the S&amp;P 500 down. The index is weighted according to market cap, so when the biggest stocks fall, it makes more of a difference than when smaller companies decline. If the S&amp;P 500 is to post solid gains from here, it will need the help of stocks outside of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司的糟糕表现可能会拖累标普500。该指数根据市值进行加权，因此当最大的股票下跌时，其影响比较小的公司下跌时更大。如果标普500要从这里获得稳健的收益，它将需要大型科技股以外的股票的帮助。</blockquote></p><p> That is also far from a certainty. The percentage of New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages was just under 50% as of Monday, compared with close to 100% during the best times, according to Morgan Stanley. If so many stocks keep trading at such low prices, the S&amp;P 500 should fall about 8% from its current level, the bank’s data show.</p><p><blockquote>这也远非确定无疑。根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至周一，纽约证券交易所上市股票交易价格高于 200 天移动平均线的比例略低于 50%，而在最好的时期这一比例接近 100%。该银行的数据显示，如果这么多股票继续以如此低的价格交易，标普500将从目前的水平下跌约 8%。</blockquote></p><p> One positive is that the S&amp;P 500 has risen about 4% in the four trading days since the low of its recent pullback. This week, the vast majority of stocks on the index have participated in the rally.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的方面是，自近期回调低点以来，标普500在四个交易日内上涨了约4%。本周，指数中绝大多数个股都参与了涨势。</blockquote></p><p> That is a good sign, but investors will need to see the index stage a broad rally for longer in order to have confidence in the gains.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个好兆头，但投资者需要看到该指数在更长时间内出现广泛上涨，才能对涨幅有信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 15:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>不要被大型科技股的上涨所迷惑。可能会有更多的痛苦，给标普500带来更多的麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> There’s no denying that these stocks are on the up again, for now.Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Meta Platforms&nbsp;(FB),Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN),Netflix&nbsp;(NFLX),Alphabet&nbsp;(GOOGL),Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), and&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA) have all risen between 3% and 10% from the low points reached in their recent pullbacks. Stocks had been sliding from mid-November until late last week, as the Federal Reserve signaled that it might move sooner than planned to halt the bond purchases it has used to prop up the economy during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，这些股票目前又在上涨。苹果（AAPL）、Meta Platforms（FB）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Netflix（NFLX）、Alphabet（GOOGL）、微软（MSFT）和特斯拉（TSLA）都从最近回调时达到的低点上涨了 3% 到 10%。从 11 月中旬到上周晚些时候，股市一直在下滑，因为美联储表示可能会比原计划更早采取行动，停止在疫情期间用于支撑经济的债券购买。</blockquote></p><p> Less money moving into long-dated Treasury bonds allows their prices to fall, all else being equal, pushing yields on the debt higher. Those higher interest rates reduce the current, discounted value of future profits—and investors in these tech giants are counting on big profits many years down the line.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，流入长期国债的资金减少，导致其价格下跌，从而推高了债务收益率。这些较高的利率降低了未来利润的当前贴现价值——这些科技巨头的投资者指望未来许多年内获得巨额利润。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s far from certain that the pain for Big Tech stocks is over.</p><p><blockquote>但大型科技股的痛苦还不能确定是否已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s change in stance will make gains hard to come by for Big Tech stocks. Central banks effectively print money to buy bonds, so the more they purchase,, the bigger their balance sheets become. Less bond buying means slower balance-sheet growth, which makes a difference for Big Tech stocks, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美联储立场的转变将使大型科技股难以上涨。中央银行实际上印钞是为了购买债券，所以他们购买的债券越多，他们的资产负债表就越大。美国银行表示，债券购买减少意味着资产负债表增长放缓，这对大型科技股产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Its data show a close correlation between the size of central-bank balance sheets and Big Tech valuations. And the aggregate size of the balance sheets of the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England has flattened out at about $25 trillion, while the market capitalization of the Big Tech stocks has continued to rise.</p><p><blockquote>其数据显示，央行资产负债表规模与大型科技公司估值之间存在密切相关。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行和英国央行的资产负债表总规模已持平至25万亿美元左右，而大型科技股的市值则持续上升。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that based on history, a central-bank balance sheet of about $25 trillion implies an the aggregate market capitalization for those Big Tech stocks of around $9 trillion, according to Bank of America’s data. That would mean a decline of about 20% from the current $11.3 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，根据历史数据，根据美国银行的数据，中央银行约 25 万亿美元的资产负债表意味着这些大型科技股的总市值约为 9 万亿美元。这意味着比目前的 11.3 万亿美元下降约 20%。</blockquote></p><p> A separate indicator also hints that the best of Big Tech’s outperformance may be over. The group’s gains have outpaced the S&amp;P 500’s by so much recently that its total market cap is now the highest portion of the S&amp;P 500’s total value since August 2020. That, of course, was just before the Big Tech stocks all experienced corrections, or declines of at least 10%.</p><p><blockquote>另一个指标也暗示，大型科技公司的最佳表现可能已经结束。该集团的涨幅最近远远超过了标普500，以至于其总市值目前是自 2020 年 8 月以来标普500总市值中所占比例最高的。当然，那是在大型科技股都经历调整或至少下跌 10% 之前。</blockquote></p><p> Before that, the last time Big Tech was so large compared to the broader market was in 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，上一次大型科技公司相对于更广泛的市场规模如此之大是在 2000 年，也就是互联网泡沫破裂之前。</blockquote></p><p> A poor performance by Big Tech could drag the S&amp;P 500 down. The index is weighted according to market cap, so when the biggest stocks fall, it makes more of a difference than when smaller companies decline. If the S&amp;P 500 is to post solid gains from here, it will need the help of stocks outside of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技公司的糟糕表现可能会拖累标普500。该指数根据市值进行加权，因此当最大的股票下跌时，其影响比较小的公司下跌时更大。如果标普500要从这里获得稳健的收益，它将需要大型科技股以外的股票的帮助。</blockquote></p><p> That is also far from a certainty. The percentage of New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages was just under 50% as of Monday, compared with close to 100% during the best times, according to Morgan Stanley. If so many stocks keep trading at such low prices, the S&amp;P 500 should fall about 8% from its current level, the bank’s data show.</p><p><blockquote>这也远非确定无疑。根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至周一，纽约证券交易所上市股票交易价格高于 200 天移动平均线的比例略低于 50%，而在最好的时期这一比例接近 100%。该银行的数据显示，如果这么多股票继续以如此低的价格交易，标普500将从目前的水平下跌约 8%。</blockquote></p><p> One positive is that the S&amp;P 500 has risen about 4% in the four trading days since the low of its recent pullback. This week, the vast majority of stocks on the index have participated in the rally.</p><p><blockquote>一个积极的方面是，自近期回调低点以来，标普500在四个交易日内上涨了约4%。本周，指数中绝大多数个股都参与了涨势。</blockquote></p><p> That is a good sign, but investors will need to see the index stage a broad rally for longer in order to have confidence in the gains.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个好兆头，但投资者需要看到该指数在更长时间内出现广泛上涨，才能对涨幅有信心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-pain-stock-market-sp500-51638909682?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","NFLX":"奈飞","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MSFT":"微软",".DJI":"道琼斯","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-pain-stock-market-sp500-51638909682?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119697932","content_text":"Don’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for the S&P 500.\nThere’s no denying that these stocks are on the up again, for now.Apple (AAPL),Meta Platforms (FB),Amazon.com (AMZN),Netflix (NFLX),Alphabet (GOOGL),Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) have all risen between 3% and 10% from the low points reached in their recent pullbacks. Stocks had been sliding from mid-November until late last week, as the Federal Reserve signaled that it might move sooner than planned to halt the bond purchases it has used to prop up the economy during the pandemic.\nLess money moving into long-dated Treasury bonds allows their prices to fall, all else being equal, pushing yields on the debt higher. Those higher interest rates reduce the current, discounted value of future profits—and investors in these tech giants are counting on big profits many years down the line.\nBut it’s far from certain that the pain for Big Tech stocks is over.\nThe Fed’s change in stance will make gains hard to come by for Big Tech stocks. Central banks effectively print money to buy bonds, so the more they purchase,, the bigger their balance sheets become. Less bond buying means slower balance-sheet growth, which makes a difference for Big Tech stocks, according to Bank of America.\nIts data show a close correlation between the size of central-bank balance sheets and Big Tech valuations. And the aggregate size of the balance sheets of the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England has flattened out at about $25 trillion, while the market capitalization of the Big Tech stocks has continued to rise.\nThe problem is that based on history, a central-bank balance sheet of about $25 trillion implies an the aggregate market capitalization for those Big Tech stocks of around $9 trillion, according to Bank of America’s data. That would mean a decline of about 20% from the current $11.3 trillion.\nA separate indicator also hints that the best of Big Tech’s outperformance may be over. The group’s gains have outpaced the S&P 500’s by so much recently that its total market cap is now the highest portion of the S&P 500’s total value since August 2020. That, of course, was just before the Big Tech stocks all experienced corrections, or declines of at least 10%.\nBefore that, the last time Big Tech was so large compared to the broader market was in 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.\nA poor performance by Big Tech could drag the S&P 500 down. The index is weighted according to market cap, so when the biggest stocks fall, it makes more of a difference than when smaller companies decline. If the S&P 500 is to post solid gains from here, it will need the help of stocks outside of Big Tech.\nThat is also far from a certainty. The percentage of New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages was just under 50% as of Monday, compared with close to 100% during the best times, according to Morgan Stanley. If so many stocks keep trading at such low prices, the S&P 500 should fall about 8% from its current level, the bank’s data show.\nOne positive is that the S&P 500 has risen about 4% in the four trading days since the low of its recent pullback. This week, the vast majority of stocks on the index have participated in the rally.\nThat is a good sign, but investors will need to see the index stage a broad rally for longer in order to have confidence in the gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"FB":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609942158,"gmtCreate":1638234816939,"gmtModify":1638234890725,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Who likes to see more green days? 💚💚💚","listText":"Who likes to see more green days? 💚💚💚","text":"Who likes to see more green days? 💚💚💚","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/731f743157d92d1f5273e375fef209de","width":"1125","height":"2284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609942158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872082591,"gmtCreate":1637375778132,"gmtModify":1637375778299,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Technology!","listText":"Technology!","text":"Technology!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872082591","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878255233,"gmtCreate":1637200216219,"gmtModify":1637200216304,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"2021 &amp; beyond: Metaverse&nbsp;","listText":"2021 &amp; beyond: Metaverse&nbsp;","text":"2021 & beyond: Metaverse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878255233","repostId":"2184764854","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871861012,"gmtCreate":1637052658193,"gmtModify":1637052658375,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like!","listText":"Like!","text":"Like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871861012","repostId":"1195660296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195660296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637045792,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195660296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-16 14:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Razer execs plan to value firm at up to US$4.5 bln in take-private deal -sources<blockquote>Razer 高管计划在私有化交易中对公司估值高达 45 亿美元 - 消息人士</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195660296","media":"Reuters","summary":"A consortium led by Razer Inc's top executives is planning to value the Hong Kong-listed gaming hard","content":"<p>A consortium led by Razer Inc's top executives is planning to value the Hong Kong-listed gaming hardware maker at up to HK$35 billion ($4.5 billion) in a deal to take it private, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>两名直接知情人士表示，由雷蛇公司高管领导的财团正计划对这家在香港上市的游戏硬件制造商进行高达 350 亿港元（45 亿美元）的私有化交易。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Min-Liang Tan and non-executive director Kaling Lim, with a combined stake of nearly 60% in Razer, are leading a group to offer up to HK$4 per share for the deal, the people said. That is almost double Razer's average share price of HK$2.1 over the past month.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，董事长陈敏良和非执行董事林嘉玲合计持有雷蛇近60%的股份，他们正带领一个集团为这笔交易出价高达每股4港元。这几乎是 Razer 过去一个月平均股价 2.1 港元的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The move comes as the consortium believes Razer, based in the United States and Singapore, has been undervalued in Hong Kong where investors typically pay more attention to tech firms from mainland China, the people added, declining to be identified due to confidentiality constraints.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士补充说，此举是因为该财团认为总部位于美国和新加坡的雷蛇在香港被低估了，而香港的投资者通常更关注来自中国大陆的科技公司，但由于保密限制，这些公司不愿透露姓名。</blockquote></p><p> Razer declined to comment. Tan and Lim also declined to comment on a Reuters query made via the company.</p><p><blockquote>雷蛇拒绝置评。谭和林也拒绝对路透社通过该公司提出的询问发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, a company filing said Tan and Lim were in preliminary talks with financial investors to explore the possibility of a transaction involving the company which may or may not lead to a general offer for its shares.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，一份公司文件称，Tan 和 Lim 正在与金融投资者进行初步谈判，以探索涉及该公司的交易的可能性，该交易可能会也可能不会导致其股票的全面收购。</blockquote></p><p> The consortium is also in talks with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners for the buyout, said one of the two people and two other people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>其中一人和另外两名知情人士表示，该财团还在与私募股权公司 CVC Capital Partners 就收购事宜进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Buyout firm KKR has also studied the deal but has yet to decide on whether it will invest, said the first two people and another person.</p><p><blockquote>前两名人士和另一名人士表示，收购公司 KKR 也研究了这笔交易，但尚未决定是否投资。</blockquote></p><p> KKR declined to comment. CVC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>KKR拒绝置评。CVC没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> The talks have advanced and the consortium is looking to announce the deal by end-2021, the first two people said.</p><p><blockquote>前两位人士表示，谈判已经取得进展，该财团希望在 2021 年底前宣布该交易。</blockquote></p><p> The consortium aims to eventually list Razer in New York to take advantage of higher valuations for tech stocks, the first two people told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>前两位人士告诉路透社，该财团的目标是最终将 Razer 在纽约上市，以利用科技股较高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> RAZER PERFORMANCE</p><p><blockquote>雷蛇性能</blockquote></p><p> Founded in the United States and Singapore in 2005, Razer has grown from making wireless mice to manufacturing gaming laptops, gaming keyboards and other accessories.</p><p><blockquote>Razer于2005年在美国和新加坡成立，从制造无线鼠标发展到制造游戏笔记本电脑、游戏键盘和其他配件。</blockquote></p><p> It swung to a record net profit of $31.3 million in the first half of 2021, riding a gaming boom as COVID-19-related lockdowns kept people at home, compared to a net loss of $17.7 million a year earlier. The United States accounted for 42% of its first-half revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年上半年，由于与 COVID-19 相关的封锁让人们呆在家里，该公司的净利润达到创纪录的 3130 万美元，而去年同期净亏损为 1770 万美元。美国占其上半年营收的42%。</blockquote></p><p> Razer went public at HK$3.88 per share in the Asian financial hub in 2017, in a stellar debut powered by strong retail demand for new technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>2017年，雷蛇在亚洲金融中心以每股3.88港元的价格上市，在新科技股强劲的零售需求推动下，首次亮相就取得了辉煌的成绩。</blockquote></p><p> But its stock more than halved last month from this year's peak of HK$3.36 in February, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 24% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>但其股价上个月较今年 2 月份 3.36 港元的峰值下跌了一半以上，而基准恒生指数同期下跌了 24%。</blockquote></p><p> However, the shares have jumped 30% to five-month highs since the October filing on Tan and Lim's talks with investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自 10 月份陈和林与投资者的会谈提交文件以来，该股已上涨 30%，至五个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> A transaction would add to a surge in strategic investors and buyout firms tapping Hong Kong companies for take-private opportunities, attracted by undervalued shares.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易将加剧战略投资者和收购公司在被低估的股票吸引下，利用香港公司寻求私有化机会的激增。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong-listed firms have been involved in $8.15 billion worth of take-private deals in 2021, versus $23 billion for all of last year, Refinitiv data showed.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，2021 年香港上市公司参与了价值 81.5 亿美元的私有化交易，而去年全年为 230 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 7.7923 Hong Kong dollars)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=7.7923港元）</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Razer execs plan to value firm at up to US$4.5 bln in take-private deal -sources<blockquote>Razer 高管计划在私有化交易中对公司估值高达 45 亿美元 - 消息人士</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRazer execs plan to value firm at up to US$4.5 bln in take-private deal -sources<blockquote>Razer 高管计划在私有化交易中对公司估值高达 45 亿美元 - 消息人士</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-16 14:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A consortium led by Razer Inc's top executives is planning to value the Hong Kong-listed gaming hardware maker at up to HK$35 billion ($4.5 billion) in a deal to take it private, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>两名直接知情人士表示，由雷蛇公司高管领导的财团正计划对这家在香港上市的游戏硬件制造商进行高达 350 亿港元（45 亿美元）的私有化交易。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Min-Liang Tan and non-executive director Kaling Lim, with a combined stake of nearly 60% in Razer, are leading a group to offer up to HK$4 per share for the deal, the people said. That is almost double Razer's average share price of HK$2.1 over the past month.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，董事长陈敏良和非执行董事林嘉玲合计持有雷蛇近60%的股份，他们正带领一个集团为这笔交易出价高达每股4港元。这几乎是 Razer 过去一个月平均股价 2.1 港元的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The move comes as the consortium believes Razer, based in the United States and Singapore, has been undervalued in Hong Kong where investors typically pay more attention to tech firms from mainland China, the people added, declining to be identified due to confidentiality constraints.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士补充说，此举是因为该财团认为总部位于美国和新加坡的雷蛇在香港被低估了，而香港的投资者通常更关注来自中国大陆的科技公司，但由于保密限制，这些公司不愿透露姓名。</blockquote></p><p> Razer declined to comment. Tan and Lim also declined to comment on a Reuters query made via the company.</p><p><blockquote>雷蛇拒绝置评。谭和林也拒绝对路透社通过该公司提出的询问发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> In late October, a company filing said Tan and Lim were in preliminary talks with financial investors to explore the possibility of a transaction involving the company which may or may not lead to a general offer for its shares.</p><p><blockquote>10 月下旬，一份公司文件称，Tan 和 Lim 正在与金融投资者进行初步谈判，以探索涉及该公司的交易的可能性，该交易可能会也可能不会导致其股票的全面收购。</blockquote></p><p> The consortium is also in talks with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners for the buyout, said one of the two people and two other people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>其中一人和另外两名知情人士表示，该财团还在与私募股权公司 CVC Capital Partners 就收购事宜进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Buyout firm KKR has also studied the deal but has yet to decide on whether it will invest, said the first two people and another person.</p><p><blockquote>前两名人士和另一名人士表示，收购公司 KKR 也研究了这笔交易，但尚未决定是否投资。</blockquote></p><p> KKR declined to comment. CVC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>KKR拒绝置评。CVC没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> The talks have advanced and the consortium is looking to announce the deal by end-2021, the first two people said.</p><p><blockquote>前两位人士表示，谈判已经取得进展，该财团希望在 2021 年底前宣布该交易。</blockquote></p><p> The consortium aims to eventually list Razer in New York to take advantage of higher valuations for tech stocks, the first two people told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>前两位人士告诉路透社，该财团的目标是最终将 Razer 在纽约上市，以利用科技股较高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> RAZER PERFORMANCE</p><p><blockquote>雷蛇性能</blockquote></p><p> Founded in the United States and Singapore in 2005, Razer has grown from making wireless mice to manufacturing gaming laptops, gaming keyboards and other accessories.</p><p><blockquote>Razer于2005年在美国和新加坡成立，从制造无线鼠标发展到制造游戏笔记本电脑、游戏键盘和其他配件。</blockquote></p><p> It swung to a record net profit of $31.3 million in the first half of 2021, riding a gaming boom as COVID-19-related lockdowns kept people at home, compared to a net loss of $17.7 million a year earlier. The United States accounted for 42% of its first-half revenue.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年上半年，由于与 COVID-19 相关的封锁让人们呆在家里，该公司的净利润达到创纪录的 3130 万美元，而去年同期净亏损为 1770 万美元。美国占其上半年营收的42%。</blockquote></p><p> Razer went public at HK$3.88 per share in the Asian financial hub in 2017, in a stellar debut powered by strong retail demand for new technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>2017年，雷蛇在亚洲金融中心以每股3.88港元的价格上市，在新科技股强劲的零售需求推动下，首次亮相就取得了辉煌的成绩。</blockquote></p><p> But its stock more than halved last month from this year's peak of HK$3.36 in February, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 24% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>但其股价上个月较今年 2 月份 3.36 港元的峰值下跌了一半以上，而基准恒生指数同期下跌了 24%。</blockquote></p><p> However, the shares have jumped 30% to five-month highs since the October filing on Tan and Lim's talks with investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自 10 月份陈和林与投资者的会谈提交文件以来，该股已上涨 30%，至五个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> A transaction would add to a surge in strategic investors and buyout firms tapping Hong Kong companies for take-private opportunities, attracted by undervalued shares.</p><p><blockquote>这笔交易将加剧战略投资者和收购公司在被低估的股票吸引下，利用香港公司寻求私有化机会的激增。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong-listed firms have been involved in $8.15 billion worth of take-private deals in 2021, versus $23 billion for all of last year, Refinitiv data showed.</p><p><blockquote>路孚特数据显示，2021 年香港上市公司参与了价值 81.5 亿美元的私有化交易，而去年全年为 230 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 7.7923 Hong Kong dollars)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=7.7923港元）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/razer-execs-plan-value-firm-043540878.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/razer-execs-plan-value-firm-043540878.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195660296","content_text":"A consortium led by Razer Inc's top executives is planning to value the Hong Kong-listed gaming hardware maker at up to HK$35 billion ($4.5 billion) in a deal to take it private, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.\nChairman Min-Liang Tan and non-executive director Kaling Lim, with a combined stake of nearly 60% in Razer, are leading a group to offer up to HK$4 per share for the deal, the people said. That is almost double Razer's average share price of HK$2.1 over the past month.\nThe move comes as the consortium believes Razer, based in the United States and Singapore, has been undervalued in Hong Kong where investors typically pay more attention to tech firms from mainland China, the people added, declining to be identified due to confidentiality constraints.\nRazer declined to comment. Tan and Lim also declined to comment on a Reuters query made via the company.\nIn late October, a company filing said Tan and Lim were in preliminary talks with financial investors to explore the possibility of a transaction involving the company which may or may not lead to a general offer for its shares.\nThe consortium is also in talks with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners for the buyout, said one of the two people and two other people with knowledge of the matter.\nBuyout firm KKR has also studied the deal but has yet to decide on whether it will invest, said the first two people and another person.\nKKR declined to comment. CVC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.\nThe talks have advanced and the consortium is looking to announce the deal by end-2021, the first two people said.\nThe consortium aims to eventually list Razer in New York to take advantage of higher valuations for tech stocks, the first two people told Reuters.\nRAZER PERFORMANCE\nFounded in the United States and Singapore in 2005, Razer has grown from making wireless mice to manufacturing gaming laptops, gaming keyboards and other accessories.\nIt swung to a record net profit of $31.3 million in the first half of 2021, riding a gaming boom as COVID-19-related lockdowns kept people at home, compared to a net loss of $17.7 million a year earlier. The United States accounted for 42% of its first-half revenue.\nRazer went public at HK$3.88 per share in the Asian financial hub in 2017, in a stellar debut powered by strong retail demand for new technology stocks.\nBut its stock more than halved last month from this year's peak of HK$3.36 in February, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 24% over the same period.\nHowever, the shares have jumped 30% to five-month highs since the October filing on Tan and Lim's talks with investors.\nA transaction would add to a surge in strategic investors and buyout firms tapping Hong Kong companies for take-private opportunities, attracted by undervalued shares.\nHong Kong-listed firms have been involved in $8.15 billion worth of take-private deals in 2021, versus $23 billion for all of last year, Refinitiv data showed.\n($1 = 7.7923 Hong Kong dollars)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01337":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871863509,"gmtCreate":1637052637100,"gmtModify":1637052637272,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871863509","repostId":"2183112076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871860617,"gmtCreate":1637052394024,"gmtModify":1637052394236,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Meme stock?","listText":"Meme stock?","text":"Meme stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871860617","repostId":"1160740007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845061657,"gmtCreate":1636253760421,"gmtModify":1636253760578,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice post!","listText":"Nice post!","text":"Nice post!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845061657","repostId":"2181074782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846486130,"gmtCreate":1636105119881,"gmtModify":1636105119938,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope travel will resume soon.","listText":"Hope travel will resume soon.","text":"Hope travel will resume soon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846486130","repostId":"1153941728","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153941728","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636100935,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153941728?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 16:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 5, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 5 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153941728","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Johnson Controls Int","content":"<p><div> Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:  Wall Street expects Johnson Controls International plc to report quarterly earnings at $0.87 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion before ...</p><p><blockquote><div>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：华尔街预计江森自控国际有限公司将公布每股0.87美元的季度收益，之前的营收为63.8亿美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 5, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 5 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 5, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 5 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 16:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:  Wall Street expects Johnson Controls International plc to report quarterly earnings at $0.87 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion before ...</p><p><blockquote><div>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：华尔街预计江森自控国际有限公司将公布每股0.87美元的季度收益，之前的营收为63.8亿美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JCI":"江森自控","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","EXPE":"Expedia","ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153941728","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Johnson Controls International plc to report quarterly earnings at $0.87 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion before the opening bell. Johnson Controls shares rose 0.3% to $74.00 in after-hours trading Thursday.\nExpedia Group, Inc. reported stronger-than-expected earnings and sales results for the third quarter on Thursday. Expedia shares jumped 12.4% to $177 in premarket trading Friday.\nAnalysts are expecting The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company to have earned $0.29 per share on revenue of $4.75 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Goodyear Tire shares rose 0.2% to $21.50 in after-hours trading Thursday.\nPinterest, Inc. reported upbeat results for its third quarter on Thursday. However, the company also posted a shortfall in monthly active users. Pinterest shares surged 6.7% to $46.55 in premarket trading Friday.\nAirbnb, Inc. reported its best quarter on record, with earnings and sales figures surpassing market expectations. Airbnb shares rose 6.8% to $190.56 in premarket trading Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EXPE":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"PINS":0.9,"JCI":0.9,"GT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843552914,"gmtCreate":1635844191457,"gmtModify":1635844234825,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why?","listText":"Why?","text":"Why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843552914","repostId":"1186935118","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186935118","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635842654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186935118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186935118","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE h","content":"<p>Hot chinese&nbsp;stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE&nbsp;holding,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、网易、哔哩哔哩、科控股、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌1%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaefcfb4e54fa93d6d4d2bf8c76f8d4\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-02 16:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hot chinese&nbsp;stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE&nbsp;holding,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、网易、哔哩哔哩、科控股、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌1%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaefcfb4e54fa93d6d4d2bf8c76f8d4\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来","RLX":"雾芯科技","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","LI":"理想汽车","JD":"京东","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","PDD":"拼多多","NTES":"网易","BEKE":"贝壳","BIDU":"百度"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186935118","content_text":"Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE holding,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 1% and 4%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"BEKE":0.9,"LI":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"RLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855314836,"gmtCreate":1635336093661,"gmtModify":1635336093661,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Boring is Gold’","listText":"Boring is Gold’","text":"Boring is Gold’","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855314836","repostId":"2178408679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852007385,"gmtCreate":1635219534996,"gmtModify":1635219535150,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rally on!","listText":"Rally on!","text":"Rally on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852007385","repostId":"1182426097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858726928,"gmtCreate":1635124325591,"gmtModify":1635124326251,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come on AAPL 😘","listText":"Come on AAPL 😘","text":"Come on AAPL 😘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858726928","repostId":"2178808449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858882807,"gmtCreate":1635036202313,"gmtModify":1635036202494,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"📢请关注我的youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。📢 我会每周给1-2支美港股做评分，如果您希望我对某一支股票评分，请在评论区留言或点赞别人的留言。我会优先为热度高的公司评分！✅配合视频站，我的空间站专属内容大幅增加，每月还会有独家现金福利哦！具体请看：十万刀空间站独家内容和丰富福利介绍$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$ $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ $Twitter(TWTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4b372ebaabc9ab331651966caf59ea","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851438567","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"548756c7f03e41038a8354fd725e202f","tweetId":"851438567","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/45b307928602268010842830030/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4b372ebaabc9ab331651966caf59ea"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825320385,"gmtCreate":1634202876189,"gmtModify":1634202876189,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","listText":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","text":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825320385","repostId":"1111412750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经崩溃。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎陷入困境。为什么逢低买入没有奏效，这是一个很好的理由，而且这次可能也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，每次市场动摇时，波动性下降一直是支撑市场的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX 都会飙升。然后，一大群交易者会进来寻找做空波动性，这将导致 VIX 走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一组成部分似乎已经消失。VIX自6月份以来一直在稳步上升，低点更高。最近，VIX 一直未能低于 18，而且标普500的每次下跌都会出现更低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，倾斜指数最近几周急剧下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空其平价形式，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入平价形式。这就是为什么当VIX触及低点时，倾斜指数在6月份创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月之前没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对冲空头波动头寸的对冲，偏斜指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不回到这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能即将退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。看来波动性卖家的消失是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上的相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过。巨大的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天和那时有许多相同的相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中的一大部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的走势与美元的走势完全相反。当美元走强时，标普500就会下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股票不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过 35 个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期利率很可能需要上涨更多。到 2014 年 10 月量化宽松结束时，两年期利率约为 50 至 60 个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在将进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在 11 月 FOMC 会议后开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但 10 年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在回升我几个月来一直告诉你的情况。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近停滞速度。他们在美国变得如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow现在预计第三季度的增长率仅为1.3%，比第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常情况下，强势美元会向购买商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等商品价格上涨已经可能减缓增长，现在随着美元升值，这个问题变得更加突出。它降低了曲线长端的利率，并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次与以往的回调不同。这就是为什么这次回调仅处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为有一点非常清楚，那就是 GDP 增长预期远远偏离基数，这意味着盈利预期极有可能远离基数，这意味着盈利增长率将走低或高于下降幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的情况下推高美元指数，导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经崩溃。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎陷入困境。为什么逢低买入没有奏效，这是一个很好的理由，而且这次可能也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，每次市场动摇时，波动性下降一直是支撑市场的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX 都会飙升。然后，一大群交易者会进来寻找做空波动性，这将导致 VIX 走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一组成部分似乎已经消失。VIX自6月份以来一直在稳步上升，低点更高。最近，VIX 一直未能低于 18，而且标普500的每次下跌都会出现更低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，倾斜指数最近几周急剧下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空其平价形式，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入平价形式。这就是为什么当VIX触及低点时，倾斜指数在6月份创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月之前没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对冲空头波动头寸的对冲，偏斜指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不回到这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能即将退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。看来波动性卖家的消失是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上的相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过。巨大的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天和那时有许多相同的相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中的一大部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的走势与美元的走势完全相反。当美元走强时，标普500就会下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股票不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过 35 个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期利率很可能需要上涨更多。到 2014 年 10 月量化宽松结束时，两年期利率约为 50 至 60 个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在将进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在 11 月 FOMC 会议后开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但 10 年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在回升我几个月来一直告诉你的情况。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近停滞速度。他们在美国变得如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow现在预计第三季度的增长率仅为1.3%，比第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常情况下，强势美元会向购买商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等商品价格上涨已经可能减缓增长，现在随着美元升值，这个问题变得更加突出。它降低了曲线长端的利率，并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次与以往的回调不同。这就是为什么这次回调仅处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为有一点非常清楚，那就是 GDP 增长预期远远偏离基数，这意味着盈利预期极有可能远离基数，这意味着盈利增长率将走低或高于下降幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的情况下推高美元指数，导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828700475,"gmtCreate":1633941356781,"gmtModify":1633941356927,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Everything has a season.","listText":"Everything has a season.","text":"Everything has a season.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828700475","repostId":"1169493532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169493532","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633939680,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169493532?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 16:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China tech stocks are making a big comeback<blockquote>中国科技股强势回归</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169493532","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"China tech stocks are making a big comeback in premarket trading on relief over Meituan Fine.Alibaba","content":"<p>China tech stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;making&nbsp;a big&nbsp;comeback&nbsp;in premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;on relief over&nbsp;Meituan&nbsp;Fine.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,NetEase,Baidu,Didi Global,Bilibili&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tencent&nbsp;music&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于美团-W罚款的缓解，中国科技股在盘前交易中卷土重来.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、网易、百度、滴滴全球、哔哩哔哩和腾讯控股音乐上涨1%至6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f698271f2e6b19a8f94cd621df6ff7f\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks continued their rebound on Monday after Beijing slapped a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan.</p><p><blockquote>在中国政府对食品配送巨头美团-W处以低于预期的罚款后，中国科技股周一继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index jumped as much as 3% in a third day of gains after closing at a record low on Wednesday. Meituan rose as much as 8.4%, making it the top performer on the gauge. The stock also boosted the broader Hang Seng Index, which gained as much as 2%.</p><p><blockquote>香港恒生科技指数在周三创下历史新低后，连续第三天上涨，涨幅高达 3%。美团-W股价高达 8.4%，成为该指标中表现最好的股票。该股还提振了更广泛的恒生指数，该股上涨了 2%。</blockquote></p><p> “The momentum continues in buying Alibaba after Munger,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.</p><p><blockquote>“在芒格之后，收购阿里巴巴-SW的势头仍在继续，”大华继显执行董事Steven Leung说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China tech stocks are making a big comeback<blockquote>中国科技股强势回归</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina tech stocks are making a big comeback<blockquote>中国科技股强势回归</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-11 16:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>China tech stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;making&nbsp;a big&nbsp;comeback&nbsp;in premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;on relief over&nbsp;Meituan&nbsp;Fine.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,NetEase,Baidu,Didi Global,Bilibili&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tencent&nbsp;music&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于美团-W罚款的缓解，中国科技股在盘前交易中卷土重来.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、网易、百度、滴滴全球、哔哩哔哩和腾讯控股音乐上涨1%至6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f698271f2e6b19a8f94cd621df6ff7f\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks continued their rebound on Monday after Beijing slapped a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan.</p><p><blockquote>在中国政府对食品配送巨头美团-W处以低于预期的罚款后，中国科技股周一继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index jumped as much as 3% in a third day of gains after closing at a record low on Wednesday. Meituan rose as much as 8.4%, making it the top performer on the gauge. The stock also boosted the broader Hang Seng Index, which gained as much as 2%.</p><p><blockquote>香港恒生科技指数在周三创下历史新低后，连续第三天上涨，涨幅高达 3%。美团-W股价高达 8.4%，成为该指标中表现最好的股票。该股还提振了更广泛的恒生指数，该股上涨了 2%。</blockquote></p><p> “The momentum continues in buying Alibaba after Munger,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.</p><p><blockquote>“在芒格之后，收购阿里巴巴-SW的势头仍在继续，”大华继显执行董事Steven Leung说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","NIO":"蔚来","JD":"京东","NTES":"网易","LI":"理想汽车","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BIDU":"百度","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169493532","content_text":"China tech stocks are making a big comeback in premarket trading on relief over Meituan Fine.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,NetEase,Baidu,Didi Global,Bilibili and Tencent music climbed between 1% and 6%.\n\nChinese technology stocks continued their rebound on Monday after Beijing slapped a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan.\nHong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index jumped as much as 3% in a third day of gains after closing at a record low on Wednesday. Meituan rose as much as 8.4%, making it the top performer on the gauge. The stock also boosted the broader Hang Seng Index, which gained as much as 2%.\n“The momentum continues in buying Alibaba after Munger,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823248747,"gmtCreate":1633644686836,"gmtModify":1633644686999,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"the genie wants to grant wishes (pros) but&nbsp;his Master controls him (cons)…","listText":"the genie wants to grant wishes (pros) but&nbsp;his Master controls him (cons)…","text":"the genie wants to grant wishes (pros) but his Master controls him (cons)…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823248747","repostId":"2173497159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829246902,"gmtCreate":1633520815195,"gmtModify":1633520815330,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Anyone keeps track these ‘predictions’?&nbsp;","listText":"Anyone keeps track these ‘predictions’?&nbsp;","text":"Anyone keeps track these ‘predictions’?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829246902","repostId":"1140605265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140605265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633514236,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140605265?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140605265","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while lev","content":"<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（项目辛迪加）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。他们无一例外地选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来，唯一加息的发达经济体中央银行是挪威的挪威银行，该银行于 9 月 24 日将政策利率从零上调至 0.25%。虽然它暗示可能在 12 月份再次加息，其政策利率可能在 2024 年底达到 1.7%，但这只不过是货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施持续实现 2% 通胀目标所需的加息措施的进一步证据。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>如今的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相符的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行没有给予金融稳定足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在 1997 年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通货膨胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。为了应对 COVID-19 大流行病，各国央行采取了前所未有的积极政策来确保金融稳定，这证实了 “一次被咬，两次害羞 ”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，取消了所有支持实体经济活动的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身就是可持续价格稳定（以及一些中央银行的另一个目标，即充分就业）的先决条件。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并预计），如果美国联邦政府在 10 月 18 日或前后违反 “债务上限 ”，各国央行--尤其是美联储--已准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）的马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达 600 万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达 15 万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我感到乐观。如果主权违约持续下去，成本可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生戏剧性和毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX,0.43%仍然是世界高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限这样的自残，如今金融脆弱性仍然普遍存在。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表在本世纪创下历史新高，使得所有四个部门都更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>中央银行是唯一有能力解决资金和市场流动性危机的经济行为者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。中国和美国、欧元区、日本和英国都是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫--以及抵御泡沫的家庭债务--迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但是，即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度而持久的经济衰退也将不可避免。再加上中国的潜在增长率大幅下降（由于人口结构和不利于企业的政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是 equitySPX、+1.05% GDOW、0.04% DJIA、+0.92% 和房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近进行了小幅调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下是负值）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期真实安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样，那么今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离现实了。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管机构和监管机构都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都需要大幅去杠杆化，以减少金融脆弱性并增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为早该恢复金融可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR），将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未如此重要。2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的阴暗地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，现在潜伏的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>Willem H. Buiter 是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。彼于2010年至2018年担任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（项目辛迪加）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。他们无一例外地选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来，唯一加息的发达经济体中央银行是挪威的挪威银行，该银行于 9 月 24 日将政策利率从零上调至 0.25%。虽然它暗示可能在 12 月份再次加息，其政策利率可能在 2024 年底达到 1.7%，但这只不过是货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施持续实现 2% 通胀目标所需的加息措施的进一步证据。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>如今的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相符的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行没有给予金融稳定足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在 1997 年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通货膨胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。为了应对 COVID-19 大流行病，各国央行采取了前所未有的积极政策来确保金融稳定，这证实了 “一次被咬，两次害羞 ”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，取消了所有支持实体经济活动的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身就是可持续价格稳定（以及一些中央银行的另一个目标，即充分就业）的先决条件。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并预计），如果美国联邦政府在 10 月 18 日或前后违反 “债务上限 ”，各国央行--尤其是美联储--已准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）的马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达 600 万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达 15 万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我感到乐观。如果主权违约持续下去，成本可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生戏剧性和毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX,0.43%仍然是世界高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限这样的自残，如今金融脆弱性仍然普遍存在。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表在本世纪创下历史新高，使得所有四个部门都更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>中央银行是唯一有能力解决资金和市场流动性危机的经济行为者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。中国和美国、欧元区、日本和英国都是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫--以及抵御泡沫的家庭债务--迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但是，即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度而持久的经济衰退也将不可避免。再加上中国的潜在增长率大幅下降（由于人口结构和不利于企业的政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是 equitySPX、+1.05% GDOW、0.04% DJIA、+0.92% 和房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近进行了小幅调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下是负值）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期真实安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样，那么今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离现实了。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管机构和监管机构都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都需要大幅去杠杆化，以减少金融脆弱性并增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为早该恢复金融可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR），将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未如此重要。2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的阴暗地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，现在潜伏的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>Willem H. Buiter 是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。彼于2010年至2018年担任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140605265","content_text":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.\n\nNEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.\nAs a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which lifted its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has hinted that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.\n\nToday’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nCentral banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.\nPrioritize financial stability over inflation\nThe result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.\nCentral banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.\n\nThere is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.\n\nI hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent study by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.\nIn any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.\nVulnerable to financial shocks\nEven without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.\n\nThe economic and social cost of a\nfinancial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.\n\nCentral banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.\nChina’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.\nDistorted beliefs and enduring bubbles\nAcross the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nThe goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.\n\nWhenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.\nCentral banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.\nWillem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829288145,"gmtCreate":1633514411868,"gmtModify":1633516589748,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.","listText":"Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.","text":"Past performance does not guarantee futureresults.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829288145","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（太）担心十月份的市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008. But the marketisn't always a terrifying place to...</p><p><blockquote><div>纽约（CNN Business）——十月通常是华尔街阴森恐怖的一个月。众所周知，股市在 1929 年 10 月、1987 年以及最近的 2008 年崩盘。但是市场并不总是一个可怕的地方……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":867035781,"gmtCreate":1633162330992,"gmtModify":1633162331142,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"A new month and a new beginning. Up, up and up!","listText":"A new month and a new beginning. Up, up and up!","text":"A new month and a new beginning. Up, up and up!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867035781","repostId":"2172631966","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872082591,"gmtCreate":1637375778132,"gmtModify":1637375778299,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Technology!","listText":"Technology!","text":"Technology!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872082591","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845061657,"gmtCreate":1636253760421,"gmtModify":1636253760578,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice post!","listText":"Nice post!","text":"Nice post!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845061657","repostId":"2181074782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828700475,"gmtCreate":1633941356781,"gmtModify":1633941356927,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Everything has a season.","listText":"Everything has a season.","text":"Everything has a season.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828700475","repostId":"1169493532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169493532","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633939680,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169493532?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 16:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China tech stocks are making a big comeback<blockquote>中国科技股强势回归</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169493532","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"China tech stocks are making a big comeback in premarket trading on relief over Meituan Fine.Alibaba","content":"<p>China tech stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;making&nbsp;a big&nbsp;comeback&nbsp;in premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;on relief over&nbsp;Meituan&nbsp;Fine.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,NetEase,Baidu,Didi Global,Bilibili&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tencent&nbsp;music&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于美团-W罚款的缓解，中国科技股在盘前交易中卷土重来.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、网易、百度、滴滴全球、哔哩哔哩和腾讯控股音乐上涨1%至6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f698271f2e6b19a8f94cd621df6ff7f\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks continued their rebound on Monday after Beijing slapped a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan.</p><p><blockquote>在中国政府对食品配送巨头美团-W处以低于预期的罚款后，中国科技股周一继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index jumped as much as 3% in a third day of gains after closing at a record low on Wednesday. Meituan rose as much as 8.4%, making it the top performer on the gauge. The stock also boosted the broader Hang Seng Index, which gained as much as 2%.</p><p><blockquote>香港恒生科技指数在周三创下历史新低后，连续第三天上涨，涨幅高达 3%。美团-W股价高达 8.4%，成为该指标中表现最好的股票。该股还提振了更广泛的恒生指数，该股上涨了 2%。</blockquote></p><p> “The momentum continues in buying Alibaba after Munger,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.</p><p><blockquote>“在芒格之后，收购阿里巴巴-SW的势头仍在继续，”大华继显执行董事Steven Leung说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China tech stocks are making a big comeback<blockquote>中国科技股强势回归</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina tech stocks are making a big comeback<blockquote>中国科技股强势回归</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-11 16:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>China tech stocks&nbsp;are&nbsp;making&nbsp;a big&nbsp;comeback&nbsp;in premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;on relief over&nbsp;Meituan&nbsp;Fine.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,NetEase,Baidu,Didi Global,Bilibili&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tencent&nbsp;music&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.</p><p><blockquote>由于美团-W罚款的缓解，中国科技股在盘前交易中卷土重来.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、网易、百度、滴滴全球、哔哩哔哩和腾讯控股音乐上涨1%至6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f698271f2e6b19a8f94cd621df6ff7f\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks continued their rebound on Monday after Beijing slapped a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan.</p><p><blockquote>在中国政府对食品配送巨头美团-W处以低于预期的罚款后，中国科技股周一继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index jumped as much as 3% in a third day of gains after closing at a record low on Wednesday. Meituan rose as much as 8.4%, making it the top performer on the gauge. The stock also boosted the broader Hang Seng Index, which gained as much as 2%.</p><p><blockquote>香港恒生科技指数在周三创下历史新低后，连续第三天上涨，涨幅高达 3%。美团-W股价高达 8.4%，成为该指标中表现最好的股票。该股还提振了更广泛的恒生指数，该股上涨了 2%。</blockquote></p><p> “The momentum continues in buying Alibaba after Munger,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.</p><p><blockquote>“在芒格之后，收购阿里巴巴-SW的势头仍在继续，”大华继显执行董事Steven Leung说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","NIO":"蔚来","JD":"京东","NTES":"网易","LI":"理想汽车","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BIDU":"百度","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169493532","content_text":"China tech stocks are making a big comeback in premarket trading on relief over Meituan Fine.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,NetEase,Baidu,Didi Global,Bilibili and Tencent music climbed between 1% and 6%.\n\nChinese technology stocks continued their rebound on Monday after Beijing slapped a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan.\nHong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index jumped as much as 3% in a third day of gains after closing at a record low on Wednesday. Meituan rose as much as 8.4%, making it the top performer on the gauge. The stock also boosted the broader Hang Seng Index, which gained as much as 2%.\n“The momentum continues in buying Alibaba after Munger,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825320385,"gmtCreate":1634202876189,"gmtModify":1634202876189,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","listText":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","text":"It’s earnings week. Stay the course.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825320385","repostId":"1111412750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经崩溃。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎陷入困境。为什么逢低买入没有奏效，这是一个很好的理由，而且这次可能也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，每次市场动摇时，波动性下降一直是支撑市场的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX 都会飙升。然后，一大群交易者会进来寻找做空波动性，这将导致 VIX 走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一组成部分似乎已经消失。VIX自6月份以来一直在稳步上升，低点更高。最近，VIX 一直未能低于 18，而且标普500的每次下跌都会出现更低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，倾斜指数最近几周急剧下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空其平价形式，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入平价形式。这就是为什么当VIX触及低点时，倾斜指数在6月份创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月之前没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对冲空头波动头寸的对冲，偏斜指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不回到这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能即将退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。看来波动性卖家的消失是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上的相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过。巨大的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天和那时有许多相同的相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中的一大部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的走势与美元的走势完全相反。当美元走强时，标普500就会下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股票不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过 35 个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期利率很可能需要上涨更多。到 2014 年 10 月量化宽松结束时，两年期利率约为 50 至 60 个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在将进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在 11 月 FOMC 会议后开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但 10 年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在回升我几个月来一直告诉你的情况。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近停滞速度。他们在美国变得如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow现在预计第三季度的增长率仅为1.3%，比第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常情况下，强势美元会向购买商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等商品价格上涨已经可能减缓增长，现在随着美元升值，这个问题变得更加突出。它降低了曲线长端的利率，并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次与以往的回调不同。这就是为什么这次回调仅处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为有一点非常清楚，那就是 GDP 增长预期远远偏离基数，这意味着盈利预期极有可能远离基数，这意味着盈利增长率将走低或高于下降幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的情况下推高美元指数，导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经崩溃。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎陷入困境。为什么逢低买入没有奏效，这是一个很好的理由，而且这次可能也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，每次市场动摇时，波动性下降一直是支撑市场的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX 都会飙升。然后，一大群交易者会进来寻找做空波动性，这将导致 VIX 走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一组成部分似乎已经消失。VIX自6月份以来一直在稳步上升，低点更高。最近，VIX 一直未能低于 18，而且标普500的每次下跌都会出现更低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，倾斜指数最近几周急剧下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空其平价形式，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入平价形式。这就是为什么当VIX触及低点时，倾斜指数在6月份创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月之前没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对冲空头波动头寸的对冲，偏斜指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不回到这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能即将退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。看来波动性卖家的消失是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上的相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过。巨大的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天和那时有许多相同的相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中的一大部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的走势与美元的走势完全相反。当美元走强时，标普500就会下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股票不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过 35 个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期利率很可能需要上涨更多。到 2014 年 10 月量化宽松结束时，两年期利率约为 50 至 60 个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在将进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在 11 月 FOMC 会议后开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但 10 年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在回升我几个月来一直告诉你的情况。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近停滞速度。他们在美国变得如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow现在预计第三季度的增长率仅为1.3%，比第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常情况下，强势美元会向购买商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等商品价格上涨已经可能减缓增长，现在随着美元升值，这个问题变得更加突出。它降低了曲线长端的利率，并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次与以往的回调不同。这就是为什么这次回调仅处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为有一点非常清楚，那就是 GDP 增长预期远远偏离基数，这意味着盈利预期极有可能远离基数，这意味着盈利增长率将走低或高于下降幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的情况下推高美元指数，导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843552914,"gmtCreate":1635844191457,"gmtModify":1635844234825,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Why?","listText":"Why?","text":"Why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843552914","repostId":"1186935118","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186935118","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635842654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186935118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 16:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186935118","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE h","content":"<p>Hot chinese&nbsp;stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE&nbsp;holding,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、网易、哔哩哔哩、科控股、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌1%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaefcfb4e54fa93d6d4d2bf8c76f8d4\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading<blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-02 16:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hot chinese&nbsp;stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE&nbsp;holding,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>热门中国股票在盘前交易中下跌.阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、网易、哔哩哔哩、科控股、蔚来、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌1%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feaefcfb4e54fa93d6d4d2bf8c76f8d4\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来","RLX":"雾芯科技","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","LI":"理想汽车","JD":"京东","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","PDD":"拼多多","NTES":"网易","BEKE":"贝壳","BIDU":"百度"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186935118","content_text":"Hot chinese stocks dropped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.com,Baidu,NetEase,Bilibili,KE holding,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 1% and 4%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"BEKE":0.9,"LI":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"RLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846486130,"gmtCreate":1636105119881,"gmtModify":1636105119938,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope travel will resume soon.","listText":"Hope travel will resume soon.","text":"Hope travel will resume soon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846486130","repostId":"1153941728","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153941728","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636100935,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153941728?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 16:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 5, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 5 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153941728","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Johnson Controls Int","content":"<p><div> Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:  Wall Street expects Johnson Controls International plc to report quarterly earnings at $0.87 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion before ...</p><p><blockquote><div>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：华尔街预计江森自控国际有限公司将公布每股0.87美元的季度收益，之前的营收为63.8亿美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 5, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 5 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 5, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 11 月 5 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 16:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:  Wall Street expects Johnson Controls International plc to report quarterly earnings at $0.87 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion before ...</p><p><blockquote><div>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：华尔街预计江森自控国际有限公司将公布每股0.87美元的季度收益，之前的营收为63.8亿美元……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JCI":"江森自控","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","EXPE":"Expedia","ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/23916600/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-5-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153941728","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Johnson Controls International plc to report quarterly earnings at $0.87 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion before the opening bell. Johnson Controls shares rose 0.3% to $74.00 in after-hours trading Thursday.\nExpedia Group, Inc. reported stronger-than-expected earnings and sales results for the third quarter on Thursday. Expedia shares jumped 12.4% to $177 in premarket trading Friday.\nAnalysts are expecting The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company to have earned $0.29 per share on revenue of $4.75 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Goodyear Tire shares rose 0.2% to $21.50 in after-hours trading Thursday.\nPinterest, Inc. reported upbeat results for its third quarter on Thursday. However, the company also posted a shortfall in monthly active users. Pinterest shares surged 6.7% to $46.55 in premarket trading Friday.\nAirbnb, Inc. reported its best quarter on record, with earnings and sales figures surpassing market expectations. Airbnb shares rose 6.8% to $190.56 in premarket trading Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EXPE":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"PINS":0.9,"JCI":0.9,"GT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858726928,"gmtCreate":1635124325591,"gmtModify":1635124326251,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Come on AAPL 😘","listText":"Come on AAPL 😘","text":"Come on AAPL 😘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858726928","repostId":"2178808449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829246902,"gmtCreate":1633520815195,"gmtModify":1633520815330,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Anyone keeps track these ‘predictions’?&nbsp;","listText":"Anyone keeps track these ‘predictions’?&nbsp;","text":"Anyone keeps track these ‘predictions’?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829246902","repostId":"1140605265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140605265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633514236,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140605265?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140605265","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while lev","content":"<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（项目辛迪加）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。他们无一例外地选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来，唯一加息的发达经济体中央银行是挪威的挪威银行，该银行于 9 月 24 日将政策利率从零上调至 0.25%。虽然它暗示可能在 12 月份再次加息，其政策利率可能在 2024 年底达到 1.7%，但这只不过是货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施持续实现 2% 通胀目标所需的加息措施的进一步证据。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>如今的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相符的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行没有给予金融稳定足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在 1997 年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通货膨胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。为了应对 COVID-19 大流行病，各国央行采取了前所未有的积极政策来确保金融稳定，这证实了 “一次被咬，两次害羞 ”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，取消了所有支持实体经济活动的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身就是可持续价格稳定（以及一些中央银行的另一个目标，即充分就业）的先决条件。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并预计），如果美国联邦政府在 10 月 18 日或前后违反 “债务上限 ”，各国央行--尤其是美联储--已准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）的马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达 600 万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达 15 万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我感到乐观。如果主权违约持续下去，成本可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生戏剧性和毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX,0.43%仍然是世界高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限这样的自残，如今金融脆弱性仍然普遍存在。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表在本世纪创下历史新高，使得所有四个部门都更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>中央银行是唯一有能力解决资金和市场流动性危机的经济行为者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。中国和美国、欧元区、日本和英国都是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫--以及抵御泡沫的家庭债务--迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但是，即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度而持久的经济衰退也将不可避免。再加上中国的潜在增长率大幅下降（由于人口结构和不利于企业的政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是 equitySPX、+1.05% GDOW、0.04% DJIA、+0.92% 和房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近进行了小幅调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下是负值）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期真实安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样，那么今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离现实了。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管机构和监管机构都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都需要大幅去杠杆化，以减少金融脆弱性并增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为早该恢复金融可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR），将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未如此重要。2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的阴暗地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，现在潜伏的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>Willem H. Buiter 是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。彼于2010年至2018年担任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（项目辛迪加）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。他们无一例外地选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来，唯一加息的发达经济体中央银行是挪威的挪威银行，该银行于 9 月 24 日将政策利率从零上调至 0.25%。虽然它暗示可能在 12 月份再次加息，其政策利率可能在 2024 年底达到 1.7%，但这只不过是货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施持续实现 2% 通胀目标所需的加息措施的进一步证据。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>如今的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相符的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行没有给予金融稳定足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在 1997 年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通货膨胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。为了应对 COVID-19 大流行病，各国央行采取了前所未有的积极政策来确保金融稳定，这证实了 “一次被咬，两次害羞 ”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，取消了所有支持实体经济活动的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身就是可持续价格稳定（以及一些中央银行的另一个目标，即充分就业）的先决条件。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并预计），如果美国联邦政府在 10 月 18 日或前后违反 “债务上限 ”，各国央行--尤其是美联储--已准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）的马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达 600 万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达 15 万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我感到乐观。如果主权违约持续下去，成本可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生戏剧性和毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX,0.43%仍然是世界高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限这样的自残，如今金融脆弱性仍然普遍存在。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表在本世纪创下历史新高，使得所有四个部门都更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>中央银行是唯一有能力解决资金和市场流动性危机的经济行为者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。中国和美国、欧元区、日本和英国都是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫--以及抵御泡沫的家庭债务--迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但是，即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度而持久的经济衰退也将不可避免。再加上中国的潜在增长率大幅下降（由于人口结构和不利于企业的政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是 equitySPX、+1.05% GDOW、0.04% DJIA、+0.92% 和房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近进行了小幅调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下是负值）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期真实安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样，那么今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离现实了。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管机构和监管机构都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都需要大幅去杠杆化，以减少金融脆弱性并增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为早该恢复金融可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR），将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未如此重要。2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的阴暗地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，现在潜伏的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>Willem H. Buiter 是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。彼于2010年至2018年担任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140605265","content_text":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.\n\nNEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.\nAs a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which lifted its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has hinted that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.\n\nToday’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nCentral banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.\nPrioritize financial stability over inflation\nThe result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.\nCentral banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.\n\nThere is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.\n\nI hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent study by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.\nIn any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.\nVulnerable to financial shocks\nEven without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.\n\nThe economic and social cost of a\nfinancial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.\n\nCentral banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.\nChina’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.\nDistorted beliefs and enduring bubbles\nAcross the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nThe goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.\n\nWhenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.\nCentral banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.\nWillem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855314836,"gmtCreate":1635336093661,"gmtModify":1635336093661,"author":{"id":"4094906971334360","authorId":"4094906971334360","name":"henglaw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094906971334360","idStr":"4094906971334360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Boring is Gold’","listText":"Boring is Gold’","text":"Boring is Gold’","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855314836","repostId":"2178408679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}