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雁门关向东二万五千里

雁门关向东二万五千里

雁门关

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雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-04-30

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 超微暴雷，需求疲软。

雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-07-04

就看川普对台湾“关税了，大概率和越南一样20%.

雁门关向东二万五千里

2024-04-18

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今晚开启暴跌，台积电二季度展望不及预期，英伟达增长乏力了。

雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-09-26

川普的话不能信，芯片关税从4月份喊到现一直没开征，我买的半导体三倍空已经从12元贬值到5元，腰斩了，做空台积电也惨目忍睹。

市场消息：特朗普政府正考虑减少半导体进口的计划

雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-03-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 完全靠炒作，销量崩了，大资金早跑了。

雁门关向东二万五千里

2024-04-01

我在2020年买的阿里巴巴，一辆特斯拉的钱，现在只剩个车轱辘了。

雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-08-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 二季度财报已经明牌了，460亿美元，三季度500亿，2026年能稳住就不错了。

雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-08-14

$三倍做空半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXS)$ 芯片关税就像难产了一样，从3月一直拖到8月，还没开征，就先豁免了一波，明显不敢加征。，

雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-07-02

$天然气主连 2508(NGmain)$ 如果不出意外，下周4.0以上

雁门关向东二万五千里

2025-04-16

美股现在只剩微软和谷歌还行。苹果，亚马逊和特斯拉，制造业受关税影响很大，有下跌风险，

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left;\">此外研报强调，<strong>任何关于美国可能限制原油出口的风险预期升温，都会进一步拉大布伦特与美国WTI原油之间的价差。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">最重要的是，高盛判断<strong>海峡重新开放之后的世界，由于基础设施被破坏，产量可能长期无法恢复。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_747803938\" style=\"text-align: left;\">复盘史上五次原油冲击，大型供应冲击往往持续多年</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛基准假设是4月开始逐步修复霍尔木兹海峡通行流量，价格在2026年四季度回落至70美元区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题在于，这条路径对供给侧的隐含前提很强——<strong>不仅要重开，还要在重开后较快恢复生产。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>为了评估“修复速度”，高盛回看过去50年五次最大的供给冲击，测算受冲击国家在四年后平均仍有42%的产量损失。</strong>主要原因通常是油田、管道、港口等基础设施遭到物理破坏，以及后续投资严重不足。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此高盛强调若伊朗及周边地区生产潜力遭受实质性损害，<strong>油价在风险情景下维持在100美元以上的时间可能远超市场当前预期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这条线索为什么会被放大？因为中东供给权重太高。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年伊朗原油产量为350万桶/日，另外七个波斯湾国家合计2180万桶/日，合计约占全球原油产量的30%。此外该地区合计650万桶/日的海上油田产能，因工程复杂、安全要求高，复产可能更为缓慢。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>报告分析，如果伊朗出现与历史均值相近的42%产量缺口，其原油产量将比冲击前低约150万桶/日。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_660733882\" style=\"text-align: left;\">各国可能疯狂囤油，这本身就会推高价格</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">霍尔木兹危机带来的持续不确定性，可能从2027年起触发全球性的战略石油储备（SPR）加速建设。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛分析原因有三：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第一，</strong>到2026年底，经合组织（OECD）国家的战略储备可能已被消耗至很低水平；</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第二，</strong>这次巨大的冲击可能促使各国政府提高未来的储备目标；</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三</strong>，美国向市场提供的1.72亿桶战略石油储备属于“交换”而非直接出售，后续需要归还并支付溢价。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高盛估算，如果全球战略储备建设速度比基线情景加快120万桶/日，那么将为2027年底的油价带来约12美元/桶的额外上行压力。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_803394935\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高油价最终会杀死高油价</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前全球几乎所有的原油闲置产能都因霍尔木兹海峡中断而被困在波斯湾。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛指出，历史经验表明，如果没有大规模的持续性产能损失，<strong>在海峡重新开放后，以沙特为首的OPEC核心国家很可能动用这些闲置产能来稳定市场，弥补中断期间的产量损失。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在过去的供应危机中，沙特和阿联酋的增产通常在两个季度内就能抵消70%至90%的供应损失。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>释放限制产能对于油价的压制效果有限，真正的杀死高油价的是它本身。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛认为高油价将加速能效提升和燃料替代，降低经济增长对石油的依赖。其次高油价将直接拖累全球经济，特别是能源密集型产业的活动。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">欧洲的工业天然气需求在2022年能源危机后，至今仍比危机前低20%-25%，这就是前车之鉴。</p><h2 id=\"id_2781267140\" style=\"text-align: left;\">综合来看，天平仍倾向涨价一端</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛强调无论是短期还是到2027年，石油价格的风险在总体上都是偏向上行的。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>几次历史性供应冲击的持续性表明，在供应中断时间更长或出现大规模持续性产能损失的风险情景下，油价长期维持在100美元/桶上方的可能性真实存在。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛对2027年第四季度布伦特油价的基准预测价格是69美元/桶，报告模拟了不同风险情景下的偏离幅度：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>霍尔木兹海峡中断60天：油价+24美元；</p></li><li><p>中东产能长期损失200万桶/日：油价+20美元；</p></li><li><p>上述两者同时发生：油价+42美元；</p></li><li><p>OPEC核心国长期增产100万桶/日：油价-4美元；</p></li><li><p>全球战略储备加速建设：油价+12美元。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对于投资者而言，当前的关键不在于海峡何时重开，而在于重开之后，中东的石油产能到底留下了多少永久性的伤疤。后者将决定未来数年的油价中枢。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-20 12:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767975><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛大宗商品团队警告，霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻背景下，布油存在突破2008年历史高点的风险。数据显示，布油价格在2008年7月曾冲高至147.50美元/桶高点。复盘五次历史供应冲击，受冲击国四年后平均仍有42%产量损失，基础设施破坏是主因，届时油价或长期维持100美元高位。高盛认为布伦特原油或突破2008历史高点，油价\"长期维持在100美元\"的风险上升。追风交易台消息，3月19日，高盛Daan ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767975\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{"PSX":"Phillips 66","PBF":"PBF Energy","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","PBR":"巴西石油公司","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A 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Corp Ltd.","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","SHEL":"SHELL PLC SPON ADS EACH REPR 2 ORD SHS","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","00857":"中国石油股份","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","VLO":"瓦莱罗能源","SLB":"斯伦贝谢","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","BKR":"Baker Hughes Co","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DVN":"德文能源","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","HAL":"哈里伯顿","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","00883":"中国海洋石油","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","CVX":"雪佛龙","BK4516":"特朗普概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3767975","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2620204572","content_text":"高盛大宗商品团队警告，霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻背景下，布油存在突破2008年历史高点的风险。数据显示，布油价格在2008年7月曾冲高至147.50美元/桶高点。复盘五次历史供应冲击，受冲击国四年后平均仍有42%产量损失，基础设施破坏是主因，届时油价或长期维持100美元高位。高盛认为布伦特原油或突破2008历史高点，油价\"长期维持在100美元\"的风险上升。追风交易台消息，3月19日，高盛Daan Struyven的大宗商品研究团队研报指出，在霍尔木兹海峡通道受阻局面持续的背景下，油价上涨趋势很难停止。如果这种低迷状态持续，让市场开始担忧供应中断可能延长，那么布伦特原油价格很可能突破2008年历史高点。数据显示，布油价格在2008年7月曾冲高至147.50美元/桶，创历史新高。此外研报强调，任何关于美国可能限制原油出口的风险预期升温，都会进一步拉大布伦特与美国WTI原油之间的价差。最重要的是，高盛判断海峡重新开放之后的世界，由于基础设施被破坏，产量可能长期无法恢复。复盘史上五次原油冲击，大型供应冲击往往持续多年高盛基准假设是4月开始逐步修复霍尔木兹海峡通行流量，价格在2026年四季度回落至70美元区间。问题在于，这条路径对供给侧的隐含前提很强——不仅要重开，还要在重开后较快恢复生产。为了评估“修复速度”，高盛回看过去50年五次最大的供给冲击，测算受冲击国家在四年后平均仍有42%的产量损失。主要原因通常是油田、管道、港口等基础设施遭到物理破坏，以及后续投资严重不足。因此高盛强调若伊朗及周边地区生产潜力遭受实质性损害，油价在风险情景下维持在100美元以上的时间可能远超市场当前预期。这条线索为什么会被放大？因为中东供给权重太高。2025年伊朗原油产量为350万桶/日，另外七个波斯湾国家合计2180万桶/日，合计约占全球原油产量的30%。此外该地区合计650万桶/日的海上油田产能，因工程复杂、安全要求高，复产可能更为缓慢。报告分析，如果伊朗出现与历史均值相近的42%产量缺口，其原油产量将比冲击前低约150万桶/日。各国可能疯狂囤油，这本身就会推高价格霍尔木兹危机带来的持续不确定性，可能从2027年起触发全球性的战略石油储备（SPR）加速建设。高盛分析原因有三：第一，到2026年底，经合组织（OECD）国家的战略储备可能已被消耗至很低水平；第二，这次巨大的冲击可能促使各国政府提高未来的储备目标；第三，美国向市场提供的1.72亿桶战略石油储备属于“交换”而非直接出售，后续需要归还并支付溢价。高盛估算，如果全球战略储备建设速度比基线情景加快120万桶/日，那么将为2027年底的油价带来约12美元/桶的额外上行压力。高油价最终会杀死高油价目前全球几乎所有的原油闲置产能都因霍尔木兹海峡中断而被困在波斯湾。高盛指出，历史经验表明，如果没有大规模的持续性产能损失，在海峡重新开放后，以沙特为首的OPEC核心国家很可能动用这些闲置产能来稳定市场，弥补中断期间的产量损失。在过去的供应危机中，沙特和阿联酋的增产通常在两个季度内就能抵消70%至90%的供应损失。释放限制产能对于油价的压制效果有限，真正的杀死高油价的是它本身。高盛认为高油价将加速能效提升和燃料替代，降低经济增长对石油的依赖。其次高油价将直接拖累全球经济，特别是能源密集型产业的活动。欧洲的工业天然气需求在2022年能源危机后，至今仍比危机前低20%-25%，这就是前车之鉴。综合来看，天平仍倾向涨价一端高盛强调无论是短期还是到2027年，石油价格的风险在总体上都是偏向上行的。几次历史性供应冲击的持续性表明，在供应中断时间更长或出现大规模持续性产能损失的风险情景下，油价长期维持在100美元/桶上方的可能性真实存在。高盛对2027年第四季度布伦特油价的基准预测价格是69美元/桶，报告模拟了不同风险情景下的偏离幅度：霍尔木兹海峡中断60天：油价+24美元；中东产能长期损失200万桶/日：油价+20美元；上述两者同时发生：油价+42美元；OPEC核心国长期增产100万桶/日：油价-4美元；全球战略储备加速建设：油价+12美元。对于投资者而言，当前的关键不在于海峡何时重开，而在于重开之后，中东的石油产能到底留下了多少永久性的伤疤。后者将决定未来数年的油价中枢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DVN":2,"USEG":2,"OXY":2,"PSX":2,"SLB":2,"SHEL":2,"00386":2,"BP":2,"BKR":2,"CVX":2,"PBF":2,"00883":2,"PBR":2,"TTE":2,"MPC":2,"VLO":2,"00857":2,"CLmain":2,"XOM":2,"MUR":2,"INDO":2,"HAL":2,"BZmain":2,"EQNR":2,"COP":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":42,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544479688889136,"gmtCreate":1773904010150,"gmtModify":1773907123982,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCO\">$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ </a> 这个股票就是坑货，原油跌1个点，他不涨，原油涨1个点，他跌2个点，只跌不涨，垃圾货。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCO\">$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ </a> 这个股票就是坑货，原油跌1个点，他不涨，原油涨1个点，他跌2个点，只跌不涨，垃圾货。","text":"$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ 这个股票就是坑货，原油跌1个点，他不涨，原油涨1个点，他跌2个点，只跌不涨，垃圾货。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544479688889136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544148438578080,"gmtCreate":1773874341277,"gmtModify":1773874343666,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a> 美国第31海军陆战队最快3月底才会到达中东，4月初会不会立即夺取海峡还是个未知数，市场正对美国失去耐心了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a> 美国第31海军陆战队最快3月底才会到达中东，4月初会不会立即夺取海峡还是个未知数，市场正对美国失去耐心了。","text":"$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ 美国第31海军陆战队最快3月底才会到达中东，4月初会不会立即夺取海峡还是个未知数，市场正对美国失去耐心了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544148438578080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":544017463178040,"gmtCreate":1773842260025,"gmtModify":1773842262135,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCO\">$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ </a> 一倍涨，两倍跌，贬值得太快，补仓没意义。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCO\">$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ </a> 一倍涨，两倍跌，贬值得太快，补仓没意义。","text":"$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ 一倍涨，两倍跌，贬值得太快，补仓没意义。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544017463178040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543741219783424,"gmtCreate":1773744547127,"gmtModify":1773753047475,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCO\">$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ </a> 空票成狗屎了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCO\">$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ </a> 空票成狗屎了。","text":"$二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF(SCO)$ 空票成狗屎了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543741219783424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543408314655480,"gmtCreate":1773662879972,"gmtModify":1773662881959,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 美军第31海军陆战队周五将到达中东，任务是夺取湾峡的控制权。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 美军第31海军陆战队周五将到达中东，任务是夺取湾峡的控制权。","text":"$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$ 美军第31海军陆战队周五将到达中东，任务是夺取湾峡的控制权。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543408314655480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4166199833663822","authorId":"4166199833663822","name":"滋滋紫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7bdb118676cc7291dfb8fb22bea3088","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4166199833663822","idStr":"4166199833663822"},"content":"问题是 能控制得住吗","text":"问题是 能控制得住吗","html":"问题是 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美国已经调海军陆战队去中东了，不是打仗，是护航，美国农民要春播了，油价必须打下来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543122346590520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":542246759772560,"gmtCreate":1773410674186,"gmtModify":1773410675586,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/542246759772560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":542249644328752,"gmtCreate":1773410673398,"gmtModify":1773410675726,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 冲突已经接近尾声，川普的作战计划就是3~4周，庄家通常先跑为快。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 冲突已经接近尾声，川普的作战计划就是3~4周，庄家通常先跑为快。","text":"$WTI原油主连 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美国已经没有多少拦截弹了，伊朗也没有值的炸的军事目标了。川普该结束冲突了，双方各自宣布胜利。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/541873212801864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545932020275498","authorId":"3545932020275498","name":"倒吊人3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e6345cffc7cd7260368947de5cb517","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3545932020275498","idStr":"3545932020275498"},"content":"不可能，不出动地面部队不行了。没了领袖的教徒就是疯子，你根本不知道他们会干嘛。只要没人盯着，他们会冲到任何地方搞大屠杀和恐怖袭击","text":"不可能，不出动地面部队不行了。没了领袖的教徒就是疯子，你根本不知道他们会干嘛。只要没人盯着，他们会冲到任何地方搞大屠杀和恐怖袭击","html":"不可能，不出动地面部队不行了。没了领袖的教徒就是疯子，你根本不知道他们会干嘛。只要没人盯着，他们会冲到任何地方搞大屠杀和恐怖袭击"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":541461254068144,"gmtCreate":1773218241719,"gmtModify":1773218243722,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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如果美军怕挨炸，不敢去护航，油价真有可能上100美元。","text":"$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$ 如果美军怕挨炸，不敢去护航，油价真有可能上100美元。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539688166285512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539755676111584,"gmtCreate":1772762635137,"gmtModify":1772762637299,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2604(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a>伊朗现在还有不少导弹，美军近一周都不可能去护航，90美元见","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 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原油冲上80就做空，8块见。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537981993841984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537981642921328,"gmtCreate":1772364063978,"gmtModify":1772364066500,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我也准备80先上一半仓位，95再满仓，不加杠秆。","listText":"我也准备80先上一半仓位，95再满仓，不加杠秆。","text":"我也准备80先上一半仓位，95再满仓，不加杠秆。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537981642921328","repostId":"537871390912560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":537871390912560,"gmtCreate":1772337226538,"gmtModify":1772337230497,"author":{"id":"3476097804612533","authorId":"3476097804612533","name":"以小搏大 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下周高点可能出现80，准备高位做空[正经]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/683250946e4eae83fb3120f198b6ea96","width":"1279","height":"1858"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537871390912560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537324464218992,"gmtCreate":1772203615995,"gmtModify":1772203618902,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092177932484180","idStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"吓人的，中期选举打不了","listText":"吓人的，中期选举打不了","text":"吓人的，中期选举打不了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537324464218992","repostId":"1105685550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105685550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772197629,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105685550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-27 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content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国际油价拉升，“福特”号航母抵达中东，美官方提醒公民尽快离开以色列</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-27 21:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五，国际油价大幅拉升，截至发稿，WTI原油日内涨幅达3%，布伦特原油涨近3%。消息面上，<strong>美军“福特”号航母抵达以色列水域，与“林肯”号组成双航母打击群，约20架美军加油机已抵达以色列。美国驻以色列大使馆下令非紧急雇员及家属撤离，并建议在以美国公民“尽快离开”。特朗普听取对伊军事行动汇报，美伊核谈判仍在进行。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db19e3c9afbd77bec18cbf1c6e2f6fd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"414\"/></p><p>中国外交部提醒公民暂勿前往伊朗，在当地人员尽快撤离。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac55c12dec50c5bc81933422bb2dd58a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105685550","content_text":"周五，国际油价大幅拉升，截至发稿，WTI原油日内涨幅达3%，布伦特原油涨近3%。消息面上，美军“福特”号航母抵达以色列水域，与“林肯”号组成双航母打击群，约20架美军加油机已抵达以色列。美国驻以色列大使馆下令非紧急雇员及家属撤离，并建议在以美国公民“尽快离开”。特朗普听取对伊军事行动汇报，美伊核谈判仍在进行。中国外交部提醒公民暂勿前往伊朗，在当地人员尽快撤离。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":430003810889824,"gmtCreate":1746002965846,"gmtModify":1746002967195,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092177932484180","authorIdStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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12:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息：特朗普政府正考虑减少半导体进口的计划","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147797724","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月26日，据华尔街日报：消息人士称，美国总统特朗普政府正考虑减少半导体进口的计划。未能保持进口芯片与国产芯片均衡比例的公司将需缴纳关税。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月26日，据华尔街日报：特朗普政府正考虑推出一项新计划，旨在大幅降低美国对海外制造半导体的依赖，以推动本土生产，并重塑全球供应链。该计划的核心目标是：要求芯片企业在美国本土制造的芯片数量，需与其客户从海外生产商进口的数量保持大致1:1的比例。</p><p>据知情人士透露，若企业长期无法维持这一比例，将面临额外关税。这项计划源于特朗普上月曾提及的设想：那些加大对美投资的科技公司将可避免半导体进口被征收约100%的高额关税。知情人士称，此次提出的产能对等要求，比单纯增加国内投资更为严苛，因为海外产品往往价格更低、供应链调整困难，而提升美国本土供应能力又需要时间。如果该计划得以实施，可能会使本已复杂的关税体系变得更加混乱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16545ce0b047eaf2fcff4cd1e302009d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"732\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场消息：特朗普政府正考虑减少半导体进口的计划\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-26 12:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月26日，据华尔街日报：特朗普政府正考虑推出一项新计划，旨在大幅降低美国对海外制造半导体的依赖，以推动本土生产，并重塑全球供应链。该计划的核心目标是：要求芯片企业在美国本土制造的芯片数量，需与其客户从海外生产商进口的数量保持大致1:1的比例。</p><p>据知情人士透露，若企业长期无法维持这一比例，将面临额外关税。这项计划源于特朗普上月曾提及的设想：那些加大对美投资的科技公司将可避免半导体进口被征收约100%的高额关税。知情人士称，此次提出的产能对等要求，比单纯增加国内投资更为严苛，因为海外产品往往价格更低、供应链调整困难，而提升美国本土供应能力又需要时间。如果该计划得以实施，可能会使本已复杂的关税体系变得更加混乱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16545ce0b047eaf2fcff4cd1e302009d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"732\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","INTC":"英特尔","TSM":"台积电","AVGO":"博通","NVDA":"英伟达","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","ASML":"阿斯麦","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147797724","content_text":"9月26日，据华尔街日报：特朗普政府正考虑推出一项新计划，旨在大幅降低美国对海外制造半导体的依赖，以推动本土生产，并重塑全球供应链。该计划的核心目标是：要求芯片企业在美国本土制造的芯片数量，需与其客户从海外生产商进口的数量保持大致1:1的比例。据知情人士透露，若企业长期无法维持这一比例，将面临额外关税。这项计划源于特朗普上月曾提及的设想：那些加大对美投资的科技公司将可避免半导体进口被征收约100%的高额关税。知情人士称，此次提出的产能对等要求，比单纯增加国内投资更为严苛，因为海外产品往往价格更低、供应链调整困难，而提升美国本土供应能力又需要时间。如果该计划得以实施，可能会使本已复杂的关税体系变得更加混乱。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRVL":1.1,"AVGO":1.1,"AMD":1.1,"QCOM":1.1,"TSM":1.1,"INTC":1.1,"ASML":1.1,"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4204362879912922","authorId":"4204362879912922","name":"最好的我们","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a104300367fc0a1b1aa2ebf43f1510e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4204362879912922","authorIdStr":"4204362879912922"},"content":"台积电投资两千亿美金在美国，已经豁免关税了，再说台湾是中国，怎样加收关税，关税战又打不赢我们，","text":"台积电投资两千亿美金在美国，已经豁免关税了，再说台湾是中国，怎样加收关税，关税战又打不赢我们，","html":"台积电投资两千亿美金在美国，已经豁免关税了，再说台湾是中国，怎样加收关税，关税战又打不赢我们，"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":417879423861352,"gmtCreate":1743062507174,"gmtModify":1743062508735,"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07291789f4dae4cc64e158f365e7e31b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092177932484180","authorIdStr":"4092177932484180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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