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BennyB

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2021-09-06

My balls can defy the odds of September

Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?<blockquote>多头能否挑战九月疲软的可能性？</blockquote>

2021-09-04

Not bad tbh

2021-08-27

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$time to sell soon

2021-08-27

Lmao usa

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2021-08-27

Hmmmm

2021-08-26

Looking good

2021-08-26

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my pp hardddd

2021-08-26

Dolla dolla

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2021-08-26

Likelike

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2021-08-25

Based

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2021-08-25

Semicon industry looking good

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2021-08-25

Might be time to buy?

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2021-08-25

Good news!

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2021-08-25

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$to the mo0o0o0o0on

2021-08-25

Nice nice picture

2021-08-25

Nice nice nice

2021-08-18

Gotta be prepared

6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>市场连续6个月呈现积极态势……接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Buying the dip

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2021-08-18

[得意]

3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Nice

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balls can defy the odds of September&nbsp;","listText":"My balls can defy the odds of September&nbsp;","text":"My balls can defy the odds of September","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817614285","repostId":"1136345203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136345203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932942,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1136345203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?<blockquote>多头能否挑战九月疲软的可能性？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136345203","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the ","content":"<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our&nbsp;<i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i>&nbsp;on Wednesday:</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们之前讨论过 8 月份往往是一年中最疲软的月份之一，但多头将这种疲软定义为上涨了近 3%。然而，正如我们在<i><b>每日市场评论</b></i>周三：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月份的季节性表现不佳，市场上涨了 2.6%。9 月份的季节性会更准确吗？”</i></blockquote></p><p> For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p><p><blockquote>目前，看涨偏见依然强烈，因为从 GDP 到制造业和就业等一系列弱于预期的经济数据给美联储可能阻止其<i>“锥形”</i>计划。但是，正如我们稍后会讨论的，我们认为多头可能出于不同的原因是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> However, in the meantime, the&nbsp;<i>“stairstep”</i>&nbsp;advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market.&nbsp;<b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与此同时，<i>“楼梯”</i>随着投机取代市场投资，基本面疲软的公司大幅上涨，市场继续上涨。<b>因此，尽管价格仍然高企，但现金流却在减弱，这表明下一次经济衰退大约还有一到两周的时间。</b>到目前为止，这些修正仍仅限于 50-dma，比周五收盘价低约 3%，但对 200-dma 进行 10% 的修正仍有可能。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p><p><blockquote>虽然市场在过去一年中的上涨似乎没有什么令人担忧的地方，但鉴于市场上涨的幅度，也许这应该是令人担忧的地方。我将在即将发表的文章中讨论 “市场融化 ”的历史及其最终结果。然而，需要注意的是，随着盈利失败，估值也会相应上升<i>t</i>o 跟上看涨预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a&nbsp;</b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b>&nbsp;until after it is over.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的是，投资者从未意识到他们正处于</b><b><i>“融化”</i></b><b>直到一切结束。</b></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>随着市场的推进，广度仍然疲软</b></u></blockquote></p><p> At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p><p><blockquote>目前看涨趋势仍在继续，我们暂时必须尊重这一趋势。然而，有明显迹象表明，领先优势开始明显缩小，这在历史上一直是对投资者的警告。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>”&nbsp;As shown in the chart below, although the S&amp;P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&amp;P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&amp;P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“如下图所示，尽管标普500上周还处于历史高位，但纽约证券交易所整体的累计涨跌幅线在今年6月11日达到峰值。两者之间的背离看起来与去年 9 月初相似--当时主要是标普500内的 “五大 ”股票（“将军”）推动标普500达到 2020 年 9 月 2 日的高点。查尔斯·施瓦布</i><i>“标普500股票交易高于 50 天移动平均线的比例在 4 月份达到顶峰，在 6 月份达到低谷，直到最近才有所改善，但又再次面临压力。纳斯达克和罗素 2000 指数的情况就不一样了，这两个指数都在 2 月初达到顶峰，此后普遍呈下降趋势。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“相对于 200 天移动平均线 (DMA)，这三个指数自 4 月份以来总体呈下降趋势，如下图第二张图表所示。”查尔斯·施瓦布</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p><p><blockquote>当然，正如我们每周重复的那样，当我们指出警告信号时，这并不意味着卖掉所有东西并去兑现。然而，它确实是一个明显的警告，相应地调整你的风险敞口，并为潜在的颠簸旅程做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>  <b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“飞机降落时系上安全带并不意味着你会坠毁。但这是一种合理的预防措施，以防万一”。</i><b>美联储真的能缩减规模吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted&nbsp;<b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我们注意到越来越多的美联储发言人讨论开始<i>“锥形”</i>美联储最近几周的资产负债表购买。随着就业恢复到历史上被认为的 “充分就业 ”水平，职位空缺激增，通货膨胀上升，缩减就业规模的必要性显而易见。如前所述<b><i>在我们的每日市场评论中：</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Importantly&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>  <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some&nbsp;“wiggle-room”&nbsp;for now, but likely not for long.</i>“  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p><p><blockquote><i>“个人消费支出 7 月份增长 0.4%，符合预期。该水平比 6 月份低 0.1%。</i><i><b>同比增长率为 4.2%，是美联储 2% 通胀目标的两倍多。</b></i><i>重要的</i><i><b>这表明美联储应该采取行动收紧货币政策。</b></i><i>然而，经修正后的平均 PCE 为 2%，这给了美联储一些 “回旋余地”，但可能不会持续太久。</i>“虽然美联储短期内可能有一些回旋余地，但调整后的平均PCE将在下个月赶上PCE。</blockquote></p><p> The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be&nbsp;<i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，美联储现在被迫收紧货币政策以平息通胀压力。然而，不断上升的风险表明它们可能是<i>被困住了</i>继续购买债券，冒着通胀飙升和造成市场不稳定的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That risk is the&nbsp;<i>“deficit.”</i></p><p><blockquote>这种风险是<i>“赤字。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁将为赤字提供资金</b></blockquote></p><p> As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as&nbsp;<i>“infrastructure”</i>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>正如最近所讨论的，政府目前的强制性开支消耗了现有税收收入的100%以上。因此，所有可自由支配支出加上额外计划，例如<i>“基础设施”</i>和<i>“人力基础设施”</i>来自债务发行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i>&nbsp;$1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如图所示，2021 年预算将把当前赤字推向 4 万亿美元，要求美联储至少货币化<b><i>根据我们之前的分析，该发行量为 1 万亿美元。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>  <i>Reason</i>    <i>The CBO&nbsp;(Congressional Budget Office) recently&nbsp;produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns.&nbsp;I reconstructed a chart from&nbsp;Deutsche Bank&nbsp;showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p><p><blockquote><i>去年政府支出扩张的规模和范围是前所未有的。因为山姆大叔没有钱，所以很多钱都进了政府的信用卡。赤字和债务飙升。但这仅仅是开始。</i><i><b>拜登政府最近提出了2022财年6万亿美元的预算，其中三分之二是借款。”–</b></i><i>理由</i><i>CBO（国会预算办公室）最近发布了到2050年的长期债务预测，确保了糟糕的经济回报。我重建了一张德意志银行的图表，显示了美国联邦债务和美联储的资产负债表。该图表使用了CBO到2050年的预测。</i><b>按照目前的增长率，到2050年，联邦债务负担将从28万亿美元攀升至约140万亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题在于美联储必须继续将30%的债务发行货币化，以防止利率飙升并破坏经济。</blockquote></p><p> Let than sink in for a minute.</p><p><blockquote>让我们沉浸一分钟。</blockquote></p><p> If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to&nbsp;<i>“taper”</i>&nbsp;their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p><p><blockquote>如果情况确实如此，美联储将无法<i>锥形</i>他们的资产负债表购买，除非他们愿意冒利率飙升、经济增长崩溃和通货紧缩螺旋的风险。</blockquote></p><p> As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p><p><blockquote>正如预期的第三季度-<b>GDP被削减</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that&nbsp;<i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i>&nbsp;To wit:</p><p><blockquote>自今年年初以来，我们已经撰写了几篇文章，指出当人为刺激推动经济增长时，经济增长最终会令人失望。具体来说，我们注意到<i>“债券发出了经济警告”。</i>即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The&nbsp;<i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i>&nbsp;is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>如图所示，利率与经济综合指数之间的相关性表明，当前对经济持续扩张和通胀上升的预期过于乐观。</b></i><i>按照目前的速度，到2022年，经济增长可能会很快恢复到2%以下。”</i>这个<i><b>经济增长失望</b></i>这也是债务和赤字水平飙升的一个函数，如上所述，债务和赤字水平必须完全由美联储提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>周四，由于经济数据继续令人失望，亚特兰大联储和摩根士丹利都下调了对第三季度增长的预期。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>3.7</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>percent</b></i>  <i>on September 2,&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>  <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p><p><blockquote><i>“GDPNow模型对2021年第三季度实际国内生产总值增长（经季节性调整年率）的估计为</i><i><b>3.7</b></i><i> </i><i><b>百分比</b></i><i>9月2日，</i><i><b>低于 9 月 1 日的 5.3%</b></i><i>亚特兰大联储</i>值得注意的是，消费和投资大幅下调，分别从2.6%和23.4%下降到1.9%和19.3%。然而，正如我们之前指出的，这并不奇怪，因为 “刺激 ”离开了这个体系，经济驱动因素恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根和高盛也是如此</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，摩根斯坦利也下调了他们的预期：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>  <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>    <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>我们将第三季度 GDP 跟踪从之前的 6.5% 下调至 2.9%</b></i><i>.我们对第四季度GDP的预测维持在6.7%。修正至第三季度意味着今年第四季度/第四季度全年 GDP 为 5.6%（同比增长 5.7%），比美联储在 6 月份经济预测摘要（SEP）中预测的 7.0% 低 1.4 个百分点，比彭博经济学家一致认为的 6.3% 低 0.7 个百分点。</i><i><b>对数据的审查显示，经济放缓并不广泛，主要反映了刺激支出的回报以及持续的供应链瓶颈。</b></i><i>波动因素最大的是大件耐用品的支出，这些商品从刺激检查中受益最多，但受库存不足和供应短缺导致价格上涨的影响最大，例如汽车。”</i>正如我们之前所讨论的，这两次评级下调是在追赶我们之前的分析和两周前高盛的下调。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>  <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i>&nbsp;–  <i>&nbsp;Goldman Sachs</i>  Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我们已将第三季度 GDP 预测下调至 +5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产均受到打击。</b></i><i>8月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务的支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。”</i> –<i>高盛</i>投资者不应忽视这些评级下调的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利预测面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity&nbsp;(personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p><p><blockquote>在我们关于<i><b>“经济和盈利增长达到顶峰，</b></i>“我们指出，企业收益和利润最终来自经济活动（个人消费和商业投资）。因此，目前的崇高期望不太可能得到满足。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>投资者目前面临的问题是，分析师的假设总是很高，而市场的估值更为极端，这让人失望的余地很小。例如，根据分析师对 2020 年 4700 点的目标价假设和当前的盈利预期，标准普尔指数的盈利增长为 2.6 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p><p><blockquote>这使得目前的市盈率为 2020 年市盈率的 25.6 倍，按照历史标准来看，这仍然很昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&amp;P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p><p><blockquote>随着盈利增长开始恢复，这也使得标普500远高于线性趋势线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p><p><blockquote>到今年年底，公司将出于多种原因下调盈利预期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>经济增长不会像预期的那样强劲。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>潜在的更高企业税率可能会减少收益。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>刺激措施带来的投入成本增加无法转嫁给消费者。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>利率上升导致借贷成本增加，从而影响盈利。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于就业减少和工资疲软，消费者比目前预期的疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于美元走强影响出口，全球需求疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i>&nbsp;“overpaying”</i></b><b>&nbsp;for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这将再次让投资者</b><b><i>“多付”</i></b><b>对于未能实现的盈利增长。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?<blockquote>多头能否挑战九月疲软的可能性？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 20:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our&nbsp;<i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i>&nbsp;on Wednesday:</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们之前讨论过 8 月份往往是一年中最疲软的月份之一，但多头将这种疲软定义为上涨了近 3%。然而，正如我们在<i><b>每日市场评论</b></i>周三：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月份的季节性表现不佳，市场上涨了 2.6%。9 月份的季节性会更准确吗？”</i></blockquote></p><p> For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p><p><blockquote>目前，看涨偏见依然强烈，因为从 GDP 到制造业和就业等一系列弱于预期的经济数据给美联储可能阻止其<i>“锥形”</i>计划。但是，正如我们稍后会讨论的，我们认为多头可能出于不同的原因是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> However, in the meantime, the&nbsp;<i>“stairstep”</i>&nbsp;advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market.&nbsp;<b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与此同时，<i>“楼梯”</i>随着投机取代市场投资，基本面疲软的公司大幅上涨，市场继续上涨。<b>因此，尽管价格仍然高企，但现金流却在减弱，这表明下一次经济衰退大约还有一到两周的时间。</b>到目前为止，这些修正仍仅限于 50-dma，比周五收盘价低约 3%，但对 200-dma 进行 10% 的修正仍有可能。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p><p><blockquote>虽然市场在过去一年中的上涨似乎没有什么令人担忧的地方，但鉴于市场上涨的幅度，也许这应该是令人担忧的地方。我将在即将发表的文章中讨论 “市场融化 ”的历史及其最终结果。然而，需要注意的是，随着盈利失败，估值也会相应上升<i>t</i>o 跟上看涨预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a&nbsp;</b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b>&nbsp;until after it is over.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得注意的是，投资者从未意识到他们正处于</b><b><i>“融化”</i></b><b>直到一切结束。</b></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>随着市场的推进，广度仍然疲软</b></u></blockquote></p><p> At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p><p><blockquote>目前看涨趋势仍在继续，我们暂时必须尊重这一趋势。然而，有明显迹象表明，领先优势开始明显缩小，这在历史上一直是对投资者的警告。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>”&nbsp;As shown in the chart below, although the S&amp;P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&amp;P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&amp;P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“如下图所示，尽管标普500上周还处于历史高位，但纽约证券交易所整体的累计涨跌幅线在今年6月11日达到峰值。两者之间的背离看起来与去年 9 月初相似--当时主要是标普500内的 “五大 ”股票（“将军”）推动标普500达到 2020 年 9 月 2 日的高点。查尔斯·施瓦布</i><i>“标普500股票交易高于 50 天移动平均线的比例在 4 月份达到顶峰，在 6 月份达到低谷，直到最近才有所改善，但又再次面临压力。纳斯达克和罗素 2000 指数的情况就不一样了，这两个指数都在 2 月初达到顶峰，此后普遍呈下降趋势。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“相对于 200 天移动平均线 (DMA)，这三个指数自 4 月份以来总体呈下降趋势，如下图第二张图表所示。”查尔斯·施瓦布</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p><p><blockquote>当然，正如我们每周重复的那样，当我们指出警告信号时，这并不意味着卖掉所有东西并去兑现。然而，它确实是一个明显的警告，相应地调整你的风险敞口，并为潜在的颠簸旅程做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>  <b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“飞机降落时系上安全带并不意味着你会坠毁。但这是一种合理的预防措施，以防万一”。</i><b>美联储真的能缩减规模吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted&nbsp;<b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>我们注意到越来越多的美联储发言人讨论开始<i>“锥形”</i>美联储最近几周的资产负债表购买。随着就业恢复到历史上被认为的 “充分就业 ”水平，职位空缺激增，通货膨胀上升，缩减就业规模的必要性显而易见。如前所述<b><i>在我们的每日市场评论中：</i></b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Importantly&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>  <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some&nbsp;“wiggle-room”&nbsp;for now, but likely not for long.</i>“  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p><p><blockquote><i>“个人消费支出 7 月份增长 0.4%，符合预期。该水平比 6 月份低 0.1%。</i><i><b>同比增长率为 4.2%，是美联储 2% 通胀目标的两倍多。</b></i><i>重要的</i><i><b>这表明美联储应该采取行动收紧货币政策。</b></i><i>然而，经修正后的平均 PCE 为 2%，这给了美联储一些 “回旋余地”，但可能不会持续太久。</i>“虽然美联储短期内可能有一些回旋余地，但调整后的平均PCE将在下个月赶上PCE。</blockquote></p><p> The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be&nbsp;<i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p><p><blockquote>关键是，美联储现在被迫收紧货币政策以平息通胀压力。然而，不断上升的风险表明它们可能是<i>被困住了</i>继续购买债券，冒着通胀飙升和造成市场不稳定的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That risk is the&nbsp;<i>“deficit.”</i></p><p><blockquote>这种风险是<i>“赤字。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谁将为赤字提供资金</b></blockquote></p><p> As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as&nbsp;<i>“infrastructure”</i>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>正如最近所讨论的，政府目前的强制性开支消耗了现有税收收入的100%以上。因此，所有可自由支配支出加上额外计划，例如<i>“基础设施”</i>和<i>“人力基础设施”</i>来自债务发行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i>&nbsp;$1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>如图所示，2021 年预算将把当前赤字推向 4 万亿美元，要求美联储至少货币化<b><i>根据我们之前的分析，该发行量为 1 万亿美元。</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>  <i>Reason</i>    <i>The CBO&nbsp;(Congressional Budget Office) recently&nbsp;produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns.&nbsp;I reconstructed a chart from&nbsp;Deutsche Bank&nbsp;showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p><p><blockquote><i>去年政府支出扩张的规模和范围是前所未有的。因为山姆大叔没有钱，所以很多钱都进了政府的信用卡。赤字和债务飙升。但这仅仅是开始。</i><i><b>拜登政府最近提出了2022财年6万亿美元的预算，其中三分之二是借款。”–</b></i><i>理由</i><i>CBO（国会预算办公室）最近发布了到2050年的长期债务预测，确保了糟糕的经济回报。我重建了一张德意志银行的图表，显示了美国联邦债务和美联储的资产负债表。该图表使用了CBO到2050年的预测。</i><b>按照目前的增长率，到2050年，联邦债务负担将从28万亿美元攀升至约140万亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p><p><blockquote>当然，问题在于美联储必须继续将30%的债务发行货币化，以防止利率飙升并破坏经济。</blockquote></p><p> Let than sink in for a minute.</p><p><blockquote>让我们沉浸一分钟。</blockquote></p><p> If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to&nbsp;<i>“taper”</i>&nbsp;their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p><p><blockquote>如果情况确实如此，美联储将无法<i>锥形</i>他们的资产负债表购买，除非他们愿意冒利率飙升、经济增长崩溃和通货紧缩螺旋的风险。</blockquote></p><p> As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p><p><blockquote>正如预期的第三季度-<b>GDP被削减</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that&nbsp;<i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i>&nbsp;To wit:</p><p><blockquote>自今年年初以来，我们已经撰写了几篇文章，指出当人为刺激推动经济增长时，经济增长最终会令人失望。具体来说，我们注意到<i>“债券发出了经济警告”。</i>即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The&nbsp;<i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i>&nbsp;is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>如图所示，利率与经济综合指数之间的相关性表明，当前对经济持续扩张和通胀上升的预期过于乐观。</b></i><i>按照目前的速度，到2022年，经济增长可能会很快恢复到2%以下。”</i>这个<i><b>经济增长失望</b></i>这也是债务和赤字水平飙升的一个函数，如上所述，债务和赤字水平必须完全由美联储提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>周四，由于经济数据继续令人失望，亚特兰大联储和摩根士丹利都下调了对第三季度增长的预期。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>3.7</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>percent</b></i>  <i>on September 2,&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>  <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p><p><blockquote><i>“GDPNow模型对2021年第三季度实际国内生产总值增长（经季节性调整年率）的估计为</i><i><b>3.7</b></i><i> </i><i><b>百分比</b></i><i>9月2日，</i><i><b>低于 9 月 1 日的 5.3%</b></i><i>亚特兰大联储</i>值得注意的是，消费和投资大幅下调，分别从2.6%和23.4%下降到1.9%和19.3%。然而，正如我们之前指出的，这并不奇怪，因为 “刺激 ”离开了这个体系，经济驱动因素恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根和高盛也是如此</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，摩根斯坦利也下调了他们的预期：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>  <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>  <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>    <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><i><b>我们将第三季度 GDP 跟踪从之前的 6.5% 下调至 2.9%</b></i><i>.我们对第四季度GDP的预测维持在6.7%。修正至第三季度意味着今年第四季度/第四季度全年 GDP 为 5.6%（同比增长 5.7%），比美联储在 6 月份经济预测摘要（SEP）中预测的 7.0% 低 1.4 个百分点，比彭博经济学家一致认为的 6.3% 低 0.7 个百分点。</i><i><b>对数据的审查显示，经济放缓并不广泛，主要反映了刺激支出的回报以及持续的供应链瓶颈。</b></i><i>波动因素最大的是大件耐用品的支出，这些商品从刺激检查中受益最多，但受库存不足和供应短缺导致价格上涨的影响最大，例如汽车。”</i>正如我们之前所讨论的，这两次评级下调是在追赶我们之前的分析和两周前高盛的下调。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>  <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i>&nbsp;–  <i>&nbsp;Goldman Sachs</i>  Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“我们已将第三季度 GDP 预测下调至 +5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产均受到打击。</b></i><i>8月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务的支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。”</i> –<i>高盛</i>投资者不应忽视这些评级下调的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利预测面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity&nbsp;(personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p><p><blockquote>在我们关于<i><b>“经济和盈利增长达到顶峰，</b></i>“我们指出，企业收益和利润最终来自经济活动（个人消费和商业投资）。因此，目前的崇高期望不太可能得到满足。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>投资者目前面临的问题是，分析师的假设总是很高，而市场的估值更为极端，这让人失望的余地很小。例如，根据分析师对 2020 年 4700 点的目标价假设和当前的盈利预期，标准普尔指数的盈利增长为 2.6 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p><p><blockquote>这使得目前的市盈率为 2020 年市盈率的 25.6 倍，按照历史标准来看，这仍然很昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&amp;P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p><p><blockquote>随着盈利增长开始恢复，这也使得标普500远高于线性趋势线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p><p><blockquote>到今年年底，公司将出于多种原因下调盈利预期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>经济增长不会像预期的那样强劲。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>潜在的更高企业税率可能会减少收益。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>刺激措施带来的投入成本增加无法转嫁给消费者。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>利率上升导致借贷成本增加，从而影响盈利。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于就业减少和工资疲软，消费者比目前预期的疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>由于美元走强影响出口，全球需求疲软。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i>&nbsp;“overpaying”</i></b><b>&nbsp;for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这将再次让投资者</b><b><i>“多付”</i></b><b>对于未能实现的盈利增长。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136345203","content_text":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market Commentary on Wednesday:\n\n“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”\n\n\nFor now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their “tapering” plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.\nHowever, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.\nWhile there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings failto keep up with bullish expectations.\nSignificantly, investors never realize they are in a “melt-up” until after it is over.\nBreadth Remains Weak As Market Advances\nAt the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.\n\n” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab\n\n“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”\n“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab\nOf course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.\n\n“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”\n\nCan The Fed Really Taper?\nWe have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin “tapering” the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted in our daily market commentary:\n\n“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. \nThe year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.\n Importantly \nit suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.\nHowever, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.“\n\nWhile the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.\nThe point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be “trapped” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.\nThat risk is the “deficit.”\nWho Is Going To Fund The Deficit\nAs discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as “infrastructure” and “human infrastructure”comes from debt issuance.\nAs shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.\n\nThe scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. \nThe Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –\nReason\n\n\nThe CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.\n\nThe federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.\nThe problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.\nLet than sink in for a minute.\nIf that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to “taper” their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.\nAs Expected Q3-GDP Gets Slashed\nSince the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that “bonds were sending an economic warning.” To wit:\n\n“\nAs shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.\n At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”\n\nThe disappointment of economic growth is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.\nOn Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.\n\n“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is \n3.7\n \npercent\non September 2, \ndown from 5.3 percent on September 1\n.” – Atlanta Fed\n\nNotably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.\nMorgan and Goldman As Well\nAs stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:\n\n“\nWe are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously\n. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.\n\n\nAn examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.\n The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”\n\nAs we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:\n\n“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.\nSpending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.” –\n  Goldman Sachs\n\nInvestors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.\nEarnings Estimates At Risk\nIn our post on“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.\nThe problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.\nSuch puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.\nThat also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.\nThrough the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:\n\nEconomic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.\nPotentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.\nThe increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.\nHigher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.\nA weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.\nGlobal demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.\n\nSuch will leave investors once again “overpaying” for earnings growth that fails to 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picture","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc4ec33c440f25383f32ec7e9d3e9b4","width":"720","height":"1535"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837363534","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834476286,"gmtCreate":1629824392245,"gmtModify":1633682172700,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice nice nice","listText":"Nice nice nice","text":"Nice nice 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prepared","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004442","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119160710?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>市场连续6个月呈现积极态势……接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>连续。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个'危险信号'是标普500已连续 6 个月实现正回报。</i><i><b>如下图 10 年月度图表所示，此类连胜很少见，当它们确实发生时，通常会遇到一个月或更长时间的负回报。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（还值得注意的是，当 12 个月 RSI 如此超买时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，我在上面的图表中只追溯到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6 个积极的市场月份 – 长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特-席勒博士的长期名义股市数据，我计算出了每月正回报率，然后突出显示了 6 个或更多正市场月的时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表现的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期看涨期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演时段经常，但并不总是，</i><i><b>先于相当不错的市场调整或熊市。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续两个月或更长时间正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>表格显示的是，近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后至少有一个月的消极表现。23%的情况下出现连续三个月的阳性，只有14%的情况持续4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次出现6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或以上的时期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有修正。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，运行都至少以负回报月份结束，但绝大多数以更深层次的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，没有人担心<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场上<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储每月仍注入 1200 亿美元的流动性，投资者明白了<i>“殴打将持续到士气好转为止。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场上涨有可能在历史上最长的一段时间内继续有增无减。唯一的问题是它什么时候结束，会有多大的调整？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因是，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么面对 2020 年 2 月的 “大流行病 ”，市场表现相当不错的原因。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的是，“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关闭”</i>经济的。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者争相 “退出 ”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>校正大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场严重偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，并且经常导致 20% 或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该注意他们所承担的'风险'的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延长、偏离和看涨的时候。”</i>历史上只有 6 次市场同时如此延长、看涨和超买。这些时期都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，自 1925 年以来，72 个月移动平均线一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反移动平均线是罕见的，只发生在<i>“均值恢复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，要修正72个月移动平均线，需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，同样的情绪在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期手段的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候，我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>市场目前定价完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。在估值在许多层面上仍然过高的情况下，这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，8月和9月市场历来表现疲软。然而，鉴于已经有6个月的积极市场，调整的风险已经显着上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统上任的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储可能会讨论<i>“锥形”</i>资产购买以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要解决<i>幽灵</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>问题很简单，<i>“风险”</i>修正的程度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么，不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下几点，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该'卖掉一切'和'藏现金'。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理就是管理<i>“风险”</i>通过<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有一个<i>“一般般”</i>在扑克桌上，你下注少或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你会起身离开餐桌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最能说明问题的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即获利）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖掉那些不起作用的职位。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间不跟随市场反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会进一步下跌。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>将追踪止损向上移动</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>相对于您的风险承受能力审查您的投资组合配置。</i></b><i>如果你在市场周期的这个阶段积极配置股票，你可能想试着回忆一下你在2008年的感受。提高现金水平并相应增加固定收入，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我错了吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但如果指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进展的初始阶段，或；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复收支平衡，这和赚钱是不一样的。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比弥补资本损失要容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>市场连续6个月呈现积极态势……接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>市场连续6个月呈现积极态势……接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>连续。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个'危险信号'是标普500已连续 6 个月实现正回报。</i><i><b>如下图 10 年月度图表所示，此类连胜很少见，当它们确实发生时，通常会遇到一个月或更长时间的负回报。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（还值得注意的是，当 12 个月 RSI 如此超买时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，我在上面的图表中只追溯到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6 个积极的市场月份 – 长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特-席勒博士的长期名义股市数据，我计算出了每月正回报率，然后突出显示了 6 个或更多正市场月的时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表现的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期看涨期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演时段经常，但并不总是，</i><i><b>先于相当不错的市场调整或熊市。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续两个月或更长时间正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>表格显示的是，近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后至少有一个月的消极表现。23%的情况下出现连续三个月的阳性，只有14%的情况持续4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次出现6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或以上的时期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有修正。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，运行都至少以负回报月份结束，但绝大多数以更深层次的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，没有人担心<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场上<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储每月仍注入 1200 亿美元的流动性，投资者明白了<i>“殴打将持续到士气好转为止。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场上涨有可能在历史上最长的一段时间内继续有增无减。唯一的问题是它什么时候结束，会有多大的调整？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因是，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么面对 2020 年 2 月的 “大流行病 ”，市场表现相当不错的原因。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的是，“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关闭”</i>经济的。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者争相 “退出 ”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>校正大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场严重偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，并且经常导致 20% 或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该注意他们所承担的'风险'的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延长、偏离和看涨的时候。”</i>历史上只有 6 次市场同时如此延长、看涨和超买。这些时期都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，自 1925 年以来，72 个月移动平均线一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反移动平均线是罕见的，只发生在<i>“均值恢复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，要修正72个月移动平均线，需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，同样的情绪在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期手段的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候，我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>市场目前定价完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。在估值在许多层面上仍然过高的情况下，这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，8月和9月市场历来表现疲软。然而，鉴于已经有6个月的积极市场，调整的风险已经显着上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统上任的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储可能会讨论<i>“锥形”</i>资产购买以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要解决<i>幽灵</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>问题很简单，<i>“风险”</i>修正的程度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么，不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下几点，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该'卖掉一切'和'藏现金'。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理就是管理<i>“风险”</i>通过<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有一个<i>“一般般”</i>在扑克桌上，你下注少或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你会起身离开餐桌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最能说明问题的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即获利）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖掉那些不起作用的职位。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间不跟随市场反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会进一步下跌。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>将追踪止损向上移动</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>相对于您的风险承受能力审查您的投资组合配置。</i></b><i>如果你在市场周期的这个阶段积极配置股票，你可能想试着回忆一下你在2008年的感受。提高现金水平并相应增加固定收入，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我错了吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但如果指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进展的初始阶段，或；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复收支平衡，这和赚钱是不一样的。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比弥补资本损失要容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831004907,"gmtCreate":1629270202109,"gmtModify":1633686075505,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buying the dip","listText":"Buying the dip","text":"Buying the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004907","repostId":"1146130472","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831005697,"gmtCreate":1629270162819,"gmtModify":1633686075830,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831005697","repostId":"1114320591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114320591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629255336,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114320591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114320591","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The best investors in the world swear by holding high-quality companies for decades on end. These stocks fit that bill.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.</li>  <li>These three business titans are leaders in their fields.</li>  <li>They are also built to last for a very long time.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>时间加上耐心会导致股票市场的财富积累。</li><li>这三位商业巨头都是各自领域的领导者。</li><li>它们也可以持续很长时间。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> I'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我要给你看我最喜欢的股票。有时我投资时着眼于未来几年的丰厚回报。这些是我预计在未来几年和几十年里继续击败市场的产品。把它们从我的投资组合里挖出来要花很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Let me show you why I intend to hold&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX),<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and&nbsp;<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.</p><p><blockquote>让我告诉你为什么我打算举行<b>网飞</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX），<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）以及<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）从长远来看。这些股票可能不是每个投资者都能永远持有的股票，但你绝对应该仔细看看这些顶级投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 网飞</b></blockquote></p><p> First, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in&nbsp;2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>首先，你知道网飞是红色邮购DVD租赁的发送者。该公司于 2007 年为 DVD 客户推出了数字视频流作为免费附加组件，然后在 2011 年将流媒体业务拆分为一项独立的订阅服务。Qwikster事件是一个大的营销混乱，当然可以处理得更好，但从长远来看，这绝对是正确的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Going all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:</p><p><blockquote>全力投入全数字流媒体服务使 Netflix 能够在全球范围内推出付费订阅计划，并辅以对原创内容的雄心勃勃的关注。用户数量从2011年夏天的2600万飙升至今天的2.09亿。这一奇妙的趋势为公司的营收和利润创造了奇迹：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646be4c2a73d68810e962c19efe82476\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的 NFLX 收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 看到了将这项收费引入全新市场的机会，与 DVD 邮寄业务相比，该市场的基础设施成本低，并且具有全球增长潜力。因此，在美国视频租赁行业占据主导地位的DVD业务被毫不客气地抛弃，取而代之的是更好的想法。</blockquote></p><p> These days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，网飞是一家屡获殊荣的内容制作商，在每个重要市场都拥有无与伦比的分销网络（中国除外，该公司必须通过当地合作伙伴关系运营）。自 Qwikster 事件以来，该股已实现 2,240% 的回报率，复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 35.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet是在线服务巨头谷歌的母公司。斯坦福大学的一个学生项目很快发展成为世界领先的在线搜索工具。再加上谷歌数字广告工具的赚钱能力，该公司很早就产生了强劲的现金流。现金利润被再投资于更多的商业想法。谷歌最终建立或购买了在网络浏览器、在线视频、电子邮件和智能手机软件等重要领域拥有无与伦比的市场份额的服务。</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.</p><p><blockquote>到 2015 年，联合创始人谢尔盖·布林 (Sergey Brin) 和拉里·佩奇 (Larry Page) 得出结论，谷歌的肉和土豆搜索和广告业务最终将不得不消失，取而代之的是移动替代品和其他创新。所以公司做了一些大的改变。谷歌聘请了首席财务官露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat），她是一位拥有数十年大型企业融资经验的银行业高管。同年晚些时候，该公司更名为Alphabet，并将自己重组为一个不同业务的松散企业集团。</blockquote></p><p> Google is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌仍是Alphabet的中坚力量，2020年占控股公司总销售额的99.6%。尽管在自动驾驶汽车和光纤互联网连接领域取得了一些进展，但非谷歌业务仍在定期亏损。与此同时，公司正在开发大量具有巨大长期增长前景和同样巨大发展风险的线上和线下业务项目，为不确定的未来做准备。</blockquote></p><p> If the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.</p><p><blockquote>如果自动驾驶汽车从长远来看行不通，Alphabet可能会在医学研究或新型风力发电机中找到提款机。我们可能从未听说过 Alphabet 庞大投资组合中的下一个大赢家。如果Alphabet开始从人工智能工具或癌症药物中赚大钱，大多数消费者可能根本不会认为这些东西是谷歌的业务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb97b6814df65240bd8f0b4a0690e77e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 的GOOGL收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet将继续继承谷歌的传统，但当基于浏览器的搜索和广告业务开始步履蹒跚时，并不缺乏完全不相关的业务可以接管。在此之前，传统搜索业务蓬勃发展，Alphabet在 10 年内回报了投资者 912%。年增长率为 23.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walt Disney</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 华特·迪士尼</b></blockquote></p><p> And then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.</p><p><blockquote>然后是近百年的娱乐巨头。老鼠之家是由两个有远见的卡通制作兄弟于1923年创立的。该公司经历了世界大战、几次可怕的经济衰退、10 年的分销和生产技术进步等等。</blockquote></p><p> The leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.</p><p><blockquote>你今天看到的休闲和娱乐集团与最初的业务相去甚远，最初的业务是一个纯粹的卡通制作工作室。迪士尼世界和迪士尼乐园是文化的试金石。该公司是一家领先的酒店和度假村服务提供商，包括一家邮轮公司。我想不出还有哪家公司能像迪士尼那样有效地掌握知识产权货币化的艺术。这种知识产权——大多数美国人熟知的角色、虚构世界和故事情节——将永远是迪士尼业务的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Times are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.</p><p><blockquote>现在的日子很艰难，因为冠状病毒疫情关闭了世界各地的电影院、主题公园、度假村和游轮。因此，迪士尼仔细审视了娱乐业的剧烈变化，并决定全力支持流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.</p><p><blockquote>该公司自上而下进行了重组，以支持迪士尼的流媒体平台。Disney+、Hulu、Hotstar 和 ESPN+ 流媒体服务有望在全球媒体流媒体市场挑战 Netflix，在 2021 年第三季度累计拥有 1.74 亿用户。迪士尼在健康危机最黑暗的日子里承担了一些额外的债务，很可能会使用部分闲置现金来加速其流媒体运营。</blockquote></p><p> The coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.</p><p><blockquote>冠状病毒让迪士尼措手不及，但管理层毫不犹豫地打开了一毛钱。整个庞然大物现在正朝着不同的方向前进，得到了将公司带到今天这一步的相同的讲故事资产宝库的支持。从长远来看，这家管理非常出色的公司也跑赢了市场，10 年收益为 439%，复合年增长率为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110cd288830d0e354767349fe36259e6\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The common denominator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公分母</b></blockquote></p><p> These three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司截然不同，但它们仍然有一个非常重要的共同点。面对顺境和逆境，我在寻找灵活性。如果你的公司准备在周围的商业环境发生变化时对其运营计划进行彻底的改变，你就知道你有一个经得起时间考验的组织。</blockquote></p><p> Lots of&nbsp;time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.</p><p><blockquote>在市场上的大量时间等于积累财富的回报。这是你可以从本杰明·格雷厄姆的著作和他的明星学生沃伦·巴菲特的优异成绩中学到的主要教训。积累改变生活的财富并不需要几年的惊人回报。你所需要的通常是几十年的稳健收益。</blockquote></p><p> For example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with&nbsp;the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.</p><p><blockquote>例如，10% 的年回报率（与长期市场平均水平一致）加起来 20 年后利润高达 673%。在这个长期尺度上，以微弱优势击败华尔街会产生很大的影响。将您的平均收益提高到仅 11%，您将在这 20 年内看到 806% 的回报。更大的增长会带来更大的长期总回报。上面讨论的三只股票都是为了做得更好，从长远来看，它们的生存几乎是由市场条件需要时改变的意愿所保证的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.</li>  <li>These three business titans are leaders in their fields.</li>  <li>They are also built to last for a very long time.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>时间加上耐心会导致股票市场的财富积累。</li><li>这三位商业巨头都是各自领域的领导者。</li><li>它们也可以持续很长时间。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> I'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我要给你看我最喜欢的股票。有时我投资时着眼于未来几年的丰厚回报。这些是我预计在未来几年和几十年里继续击败市场的产品。把它们从我的投资组合里挖出来要花很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Let me show you why I intend to hold&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX),<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and&nbsp;<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.</p><p><blockquote>让我告诉你为什么我打算举行<b>网飞</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX），<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）以及<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）从长远来看。这些股票可能不是每个投资者都能永远持有的股票，但你绝对应该仔细看看这些顶级投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 网飞</b></blockquote></p><p> First, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in&nbsp;2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>首先，你知道网飞是红色邮购DVD租赁的发送者。该公司于 2007 年为 DVD 客户推出了数字视频流作为免费附加组件，然后在 2011 年将流媒体业务拆分为一项独立的订阅服务。Qwikster事件是一个大的营销混乱，当然可以处理得更好，但从长远来看，这绝对是正确的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Going all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:</p><p><blockquote>全力投入全数字流媒体服务使 Netflix 能够在全球范围内推出付费订阅计划，并辅以对原创内容的雄心勃勃的关注。用户数量从2011年夏天的2600万飙升至今天的2.09亿。这一奇妙的趋势为公司的营收和利润创造了奇迹：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646be4c2a73d68810e962c19efe82476\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的 NFLX 收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 看到了将这项收费引入全新市场的机会，与 DVD 邮寄业务相比，该市场的基础设施成本低，并且具有全球增长潜力。因此，在美国视频租赁行业占据主导地位的DVD业务被毫不客气地抛弃，取而代之的是更好的想法。</blockquote></p><p> These days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，网飞是一家屡获殊荣的内容制作商，在每个重要市场都拥有无与伦比的分销网络（中国除外，该公司必须通过当地合作伙伴关系运营）。自 Qwikster 事件以来，该股已实现 2,240% 的回报率，复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 35.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet是在线服务巨头谷歌的母公司。斯坦福大学的一个学生项目很快发展成为世界领先的在线搜索工具。再加上谷歌数字广告工具的赚钱能力，该公司很早就产生了强劲的现金流。现金利润被再投资于更多的商业想法。谷歌最终建立或购买了在网络浏览器、在线视频、电子邮件和智能手机软件等重要领域拥有无与伦比的市场份额的服务。</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.</p><p><blockquote>到 2015 年，联合创始人谢尔盖·布林 (Sergey Brin) 和拉里·佩奇 (Larry Page) 得出结论，谷歌的肉和土豆搜索和广告业务最终将不得不消失，取而代之的是移动替代品和其他创新。所以公司做了一些大的改变。谷歌聘请了首席财务官露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat），她是一位拥有数十年大型企业融资经验的银行业高管。同年晚些时候，该公司更名为Alphabet，并将自己重组为一个不同业务的松散企业集团。</blockquote></p><p> Google is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌仍是Alphabet的中坚力量，2020年占控股公司总销售额的99.6%。尽管在自动驾驶汽车和光纤互联网连接领域取得了一些进展，但非谷歌业务仍在定期亏损。与此同时，公司正在开发大量具有巨大长期增长前景和同样巨大发展风险的线上和线下业务项目，为不确定的未来做准备。</blockquote></p><p> If the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.</p><p><blockquote>如果自动驾驶汽车从长远来看行不通，Alphabet可能会在医学研究或新型风力发电机中找到提款机。我们可能从未听说过 Alphabet 庞大投资组合中的下一个大赢家。如果Alphabet开始从人工智能工具或癌症药物中赚大钱，大多数消费者可能根本不会认为这些东西是谷歌的业务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb97b6814df65240bd8f0b4a0690e77e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 的GOOGL收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet将继续继承谷歌的传统，但当基于浏览器的搜索和广告业务开始步履蹒跚时，并不缺乏完全不相关的业务可以接管。在此之前，传统搜索业务蓬勃发展，Alphabet在 10 年内回报了投资者 912%。年增长率为 23.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walt Disney</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 华特·迪士尼</b></blockquote></p><p> And then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.</p><p><blockquote>然后是近百年的娱乐巨头。老鼠之家是由两个有远见的卡通制作兄弟于1923年创立的。该公司经历了世界大战、几次可怕的经济衰退、10 年的分销和生产技术进步等等。</blockquote></p><p> The leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.</p><p><blockquote>你今天看到的休闲和娱乐集团与最初的业务相去甚远，最初的业务是一个纯粹的卡通制作工作室。迪士尼世界和迪士尼乐园是文化的试金石。该公司是一家领先的酒店和度假村服务提供商，包括一家邮轮公司。我想不出还有哪家公司能像迪士尼那样有效地掌握知识产权货币化的艺术。这种知识产权——大多数美国人熟知的角色、虚构世界和故事情节——将永远是迪士尼业务的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Times are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.</p><p><blockquote>现在的日子很艰难，因为冠状病毒疫情关闭了世界各地的电影院、主题公园、度假村和游轮。因此，迪士尼仔细审视了娱乐业的剧烈变化，并决定全力支持流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.</p><p><blockquote>该公司自上而下进行了重组，以支持迪士尼的流媒体平台。Disney+、Hulu、Hotstar 和 ESPN+ 流媒体服务有望在全球媒体流媒体市场挑战 Netflix，在 2021 年第三季度累计拥有 1.74 亿用户。迪士尼在健康危机最黑暗的日子里承担了一些额外的债务，很可能会使用部分闲置现金来加速其流媒体运营。</blockquote></p><p> The coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.</p><p><blockquote>冠状病毒让迪士尼措手不及，但管理层毫不犹豫地打开了一毛钱。整个庞然大物现在正朝着不同的方向前进，得到了将公司带到今天这一步的相同的讲故事资产宝库的支持。从长远来看，这家管理非常出色的公司也跑赢了市场，10 年收益为 439%，复合年增长率为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110cd288830d0e354767349fe36259e6\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The common denominator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公分母</b></blockquote></p><p> These three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司截然不同，但它们仍然有一个非常重要的共同点。面对顺境和逆境，我在寻找灵活性。如果你的公司准备在周围的商业环境发生变化时对其运营计划进行彻底的改变，你就知道你有一个经得起时间考验的组织。</blockquote></p><p> Lots of&nbsp;time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.</p><p><blockquote>在市场上的大量时间等于积累财富的回报。这是你可以从本杰明·格雷厄姆的著作和他的明星学生沃伦·巴菲特的优异成绩中学到的主要教训。积累改变生活的财富并不需要几年的惊人回报。你所需要的通常是几十年的稳健收益。</blockquote></p><p> For example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with&nbsp;the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.</p><p><blockquote>例如，10% 的年回报率（与长期市场平均水平一致）加起来 20 年后利润高达 673%。在这个长期尺度上，以微弱优势击败华尔街会产生很大的影响。将您的平均收益提高到仅 11%，您将在这 20 年内看到 806% 的回报。更大的增长会带来更大的长期总回报。上面讨论的三只股票都是为了做得更好，从长远来看，它们的生存几乎是由市场条件需要时改变的意愿所保证的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼","GOOGL":"谷歌A","NFLX":"奈飞","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114320591","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.\nLet me show you why I intend to hold Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.\n1. Netflix\nFirst, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in 2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.\nGoing all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:\nNFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nNetflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.\nThese days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.\n2. Alphabet\nAlphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.\nBy 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.\nGoogle is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.\nIf the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.\nGOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAlphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.\n3. Walt Disney\nAnd then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.\nThe leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.\nTimes are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.\nThe company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.\nThe coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThe common denominator\nThese three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.\nLots of time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.\nFor example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831002805,"gmtCreate":1629270094007,"gmtModify":1633686076377,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2160fbce2a3ec19aa03330da22476c40","width":"720","height":"1535"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831002805","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":819638755,"gmtCreate":1630062973977,"gmtModify":1704955369271,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>time to sell soon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>time to sell soon","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$time to sell soon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a95161b893d9a77723dbe72df909ba","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":921,"commentSize":180,"repostSize":20,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819638755","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576921444396208","authorId":"3576921444396208","name":"海风吹了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1a04bed39fe67d0cc062c97a24ba23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576921444396208","authorIdStr":"3576921444396208"},"content":"坚持就是胜利！","text":"坚持就是胜利！","html":"坚持就是胜利！"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831005697,"gmtCreate":1629270162819,"gmtModify":1633686075830,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831005697","repostId":"1114320591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114320591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629255336,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114320591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114320591","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The best investors in the world swear by holding high-quality companies for decades on end. These stocks fit that bill.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.</li>  <li>These three business titans are leaders in their fields.</li>  <li>They are also built to last for a very long time.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>时间加上耐心会导致股票市场的财富积累。</li><li>这三位商业巨头都是各自领域的领导者。</li><li>它们也可以持续很长时间。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> I'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我要给你看我最喜欢的股票。有时我投资时着眼于未来几年的丰厚回报。这些是我预计在未来几年和几十年里继续击败市场的产品。把它们从我的投资组合里挖出来要花很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Let me show you why I intend to hold&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX),<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and&nbsp;<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.</p><p><blockquote>让我告诉你为什么我打算举行<b>网飞</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX），<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）以及<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）从长远来看。这些股票可能不是每个投资者都能永远持有的股票，但你绝对应该仔细看看这些顶级投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 网飞</b></blockquote></p><p> First, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in&nbsp;2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>首先，你知道网飞是红色邮购DVD租赁的发送者。该公司于 2007 年为 DVD 客户推出了数字视频流作为免费附加组件，然后在 2011 年将流媒体业务拆分为一项独立的订阅服务。Qwikster事件是一个大的营销混乱，当然可以处理得更好，但从长远来看，这绝对是正确的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Going all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:</p><p><blockquote>全力投入全数字流媒体服务使 Netflix 能够在全球范围内推出付费订阅计划，并辅以对原创内容的雄心勃勃的关注。用户数量从2011年夏天的2600万飙升至今天的2.09亿。这一奇妙的趋势为公司的营收和利润创造了奇迹：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646be4c2a73d68810e962c19efe82476\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的 NFLX 收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 看到了将这项收费引入全新市场的机会，与 DVD 邮寄业务相比，该市场的基础设施成本低，并且具有全球增长潜力。因此，在美国视频租赁行业占据主导地位的DVD业务被毫不客气地抛弃，取而代之的是更好的想法。</blockquote></p><p> These days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，网飞是一家屡获殊荣的内容制作商，在每个重要市场都拥有无与伦比的分销网络（中国除外，该公司必须通过当地合作伙伴关系运营）。自 Qwikster 事件以来，该股已实现 2,240% 的回报率，复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 35.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet是在线服务巨头谷歌的母公司。斯坦福大学的一个学生项目很快发展成为世界领先的在线搜索工具。再加上谷歌数字广告工具的赚钱能力，该公司很早就产生了强劲的现金流。现金利润被再投资于更多的商业想法。谷歌最终建立或购买了在网络浏览器、在线视频、电子邮件和智能手机软件等重要领域拥有无与伦比的市场份额的服务。</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.</p><p><blockquote>到 2015 年，联合创始人谢尔盖·布林 (Sergey Brin) 和拉里·佩奇 (Larry Page) 得出结论，谷歌的肉和土豆搜索和广告业务最终将不得不消失，取而代之的是移动替代品和其他创新。所以公司做了一些大的改变。谷歌聘请了首席财务官露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat），她是一位拥有数十年大型企业融资经验的银行业高管。同年晚些时候，该公司更名为Alphabet，并将自己重组为一个不同业务的松散企业集团。</blockquote></p><p> Google is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌仍是Alphabet的中坚力量，2020年占控股公司总销售额的99.6%。尽管在自动驾驶汽车和光纤互联网连接领域取得了一些进展，但非谷歌业务仍在定期亏损。与此同时，公司正在开发大量具有巨大长期增长前景和同样巨大发展风险的线上和线下业务项目，为不确定的未来做准备。</blockquote></p><p> If the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.</p><p><blockquote>如果自动驾驶汽车从长远来看行不通，Alphabet可能会在医学研究或新型风力发电机中找到提款机。我们可能从未听说过 Alphabet 庞大投资组合中的下一个大赢家。如果Alphabet开始从人工智能工具或癌症药物中赚大钱，大多数消费者可能根本不会认为这些东西是谷歌的业务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb97b6814df65240bd8f0b4a0690e77e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 的GOOGL收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet将继续继承谷歌的传统，但当基于浏览器的搜索和广告业务开始步履蹒跚时，并不缺乏完全不相关的业务可以接管。在此之前，传统搜索业务蓬勃发展，Alphabet在 10 年内回报了投资者 912%。年增长率为 23.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walt Disney</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 华特·迪士尼</b></blockquote></p><p> And then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.</p><p><blockquote>然后是近百年的娱乐巨头。老鼠之家是由两个有远见的卡通制作兄弟于1923年创立的。该公司经历了世界大战、几次可怕的经济衰退、10 年的分销和生产技术进步等等。</blockquote></p><p> The leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.</p><p><blockquote>你今天看到的休闲和娱乐集团与最初的业务相去甚远，最初的业务是一个纯粹的卡通制作工作室。迪士尼世界和迪士尼乐园是文化的试金石。该公司是一家领先的酒店和度假村服务提供商，包括一家邮轮公司。我想不出还有哪家公司能像迪士尼那样有效地掌握知识产权货币化的艺术。这种知识产权——大多数美国人熟知的角色、虚构世界和故事情节——将永远是迪士尼业务的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Times are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.</p><p><blockquote>现在的日子很艰难，因为冠状病毒疫情关闭了世界各地的电影院、主题公园、度假村和游轮。因此，迪士尼仔细审视了娱乐业的剧烈变化，并决定全力支持流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.</p><p><blockquote>该公司自上而下进行了重组，以支持迪士尼的流媒体平台。Disney+、Hulu、Hotstar 和 ESPN+ 流媒体服务有望在全球媒体流媒体市场挑战 Netflix，在 2021 年第三季度累计拥有 1.74 亿用户。迪士尼在健康危机最黑暗的日子里承担了一些额外的债务，很可能会使用部分闲置现金来加速其流媒体运营。</blockquote></p><p> The coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.</p><p><blockquote>冠状病毒让迪士尼措手不及，但管理层毫不犹豫地打开了一毛钱。整个庞然大物现在正朝着不同的方向前进，得到了将公司带到今天这一步的相同的讲故事资产宝库的支持。从长远来看，这家管理非常出色的公司也跑赢了市场，10 年收益为 439%，复合年增长率为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110cd288830d0e354767349fe36259e6\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The common denominator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公分母</b></blockquote></p><p> These three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司截然不同，但它们仍然有一个非常重要的共同点。面对顺境和逆境，我在寻找灵活性。如果你的公司准备在周围的商业环境发生变化时对其运营计划进行彻底的改变，你就知道你有一个经得起时间考验的组织。</blockquote></p><p> Lots of&nbsp;time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.</p><p><blockquote>在市场上的大量时间等于积累财富的回报。这是你可以从本杰明·格雷厄姆的著作和他的明星学生沃伦·巴菲特的优异成绩中学到的主要教训。积累改变生活的财富并不需要几年的惊人回报。你所需要的通常是几十年的稳健收益。</blockquote></p><p> For example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with&nbsp;the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.</p><p><blockquote>例如，10% 的年回报率（与长期市场平均水平一致）加起来 20 年后利润高达 673%。在这个长期尺度上，以微弱优势击败华尔街会产生很大的影响。将您的平均收益提高到仅 11%，您将在这 20 年内看到 806% 的回报。更大的增长会带来更大的长期总回报。上面讨论的三只股票都是为了做得更好，从长远来看，它们的生存几乎是由市场条件需要时改变的意愿所保证的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我从不出售的 3 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.</li>  <li>These three business titans are leaders in their fields.</li>  <li>They are also built to last for a very long time.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>时间加上耐心会导致股票市场的财富积累。</li><li>这三位商业巨头都是各自领域的领导者。</li><li>它们也可以持续很长时间。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> I'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我要给你看我最喜欢的股票。有时我投资时着眼于未来几年的丰厚回报。这些是我预计在未来几年和几十年里继续击败市场的产品。把它们从我的投资组合里挖出来要花很多时间。</blockquote></p><p> Let me show you why I intend to hold&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX),<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and&nbsp;<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.</p><p><blockquote>让我告诉你为什么我打算举行<b>网飞</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX），<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOGL）以及<b>华特·迪士尼</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：DIS）从长远来看。这些股票可能不是每个投资者都能永远持有的股票，但你绝对应该仔细看看这些顶级投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 网飞</b></blockquote></p><p> First, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in&nbsp;2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>首先，你知道网飞是红色邮购DVD租赁的发送者。该公司于 2007 年为 DVD 客户推出了数字视频流作为免费附加组件，然后在 2011 年将流媒体业务拆分为一项独立的订阅服务。Qwikster事件是一个大的营销混乱，当然可以处理得更好，但从长远来看，这绝对是正确的想法。</blockquote></p><p> Going all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:</p><p><blockquote>全力投入全数字流媒体服务使 Netflix 能够在全球范围内推出付费订阅计划，并辅以对原创内容的雄心勃勃的关注。用户数量从2011年夏天的2600万飙升至今天的2.09亿。这一奇妙的趋势为公司的营收和利润创造了奇迹：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646be4c2a73d68810e962c19efe82476\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 提供的 NFLX 收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 看到了将这项收费引入全新市场的机会，与 DVD 邮寄业务相比，该市场的基础设施成本低，并且具有全球增长潜力。因此，在美国视频租赁行业占据主导地位的DVD业务被毫不客气地抛弃，取而代之的是更好的想法。</blockquote></p><p> These days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，网飞是一家屡获殊荣的内容制作商，在每个重要市场都拥有无与伦比的分销网络（中国除外，该公司必须通过当地合作伙伴关系运营）。自 Qwikster 事件以来，该股已实现 2,240% 的回报率，复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 35.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Alphabet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Alphabet</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet是在线服务巨头谷歌的母公司。斯坦福大学的一个学生项目很快发展成为世界领先的在线搜索工具。再加上谷歌数字广告工具的赚钱能力，该公司很早就产生了强劲的现金流。现金利润被再投资于更多的商业想法。谷歌最终建立或购买了在网络浏览器、在线视频、电子邮件和智能手机软件等重要领域拥有无与伦比的市场份额的服务。</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.</p><p><blockquote>到 2015 年，联合创始人谢尔盖·布林 (Sergey Brin) 和拉里·佩奇 (Larry Page) 得出结论，谷歌的肉和土豆搜索和广告业务最终将不得不消失，取而代之的是移动替代品和其他创新。所以公司做了一些大的改变。谷歌聘请了首席财务官露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat），她是一位拥有数十年大型企业融资经验的银行业高管。同年晚些时候，该公司更名为Alphabet，并将自己重组为一个不同业务的松散企业集团。</blockquote></p><p> Google is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌仍是Alphabet的中坚力量，2020年占控股公司总销售额的99.6%。尽管在自动驾驶汽车和光纤互联网连接领域取得了一些进展，但非谷歌业务仍在定期亏损。与此同时，公司正在开发大量具有巨大长期增长前景和同样巨大发展风险的线上和线下业务项目，为不确定的未来做准备。</blockquote></p><p> If the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.</p><p><blockquote>如果自动驾驶汽车从长远来看行不通，Alphabet可能会在医学研究或新型风力发电机中找到提款机。我们可能从未听说过 Alphabet 庞大投资组合中的下一个大赢家。如果Alphabet开始从人工智能工具或癌症药物中赚大钱，大多数消费者可能根本不会认为这些东西是谷歌的业务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb97b6814df65240bd8f0b4a0690e77e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS 的GOOGL收入 (TTM) 数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet将继续继承谷歌的传统，但当基于浏览器的搜索和广告业务开始步履蹒跚时，并不缺乏完全不相关的业务可以接管。在此之前，传统搜索业务蓬勃发展，Alphabet在 10 年内回报了投资者 912%。年增长率为 23.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Walt Disney</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 华特·迪士尼</b></blockquote></p><p> And then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.</p><p><blockquote>然后是近百年的娱乐巨头。老鼠之家是由两个有远见的卡通制作兄弟于1923年创立的。该公司经历了世界大战、几次可怕的经济衰退、10 年的分销和生产技术进步等等。</blockquote></p><p> The leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.</p><p><blockquote>你今天看到的休闲和娱乐集团与最初的业务相去甚远，最初的业务是一个纯粹的卡通制作工作室。迪士尼世界和迪士尼乐园是文化的试金石。该公司是一家领先的酒店和度假村服务提供商，包括一家邮轮公司。我想不出还有哪家公司能像迪士尼那样有效地掌握知识产权货币化的艺术。这种知识产权——大多数美国人熟知的角色、虚构世界和故事情节——将永远是迪士尼业务的命脉。</blockquote></p><p> Times are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.</p><p><blockquote>现在的日子很艰难，因为冠状病毒疫情关闭了世界各地的电影院、主题公园、度假村和游轮。因此，迪士尼仔细审视了娱乐业的剧烈变化，并决定全力支持流媒体平台。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.</p><p><blockquote>该公司自上而下进行了重组，以支持迪士尼的流媒体平台。Disney+、Hulu、Hotstar 和 ESPN+ 流媒体服务有望在全球媒体流媒体市场挑战 Netflix，在 2021 年第三季度累计拥有 1.74 亿用户。迪士尼在健康危机最黑暗的日子里承担了一些额外的债务，很可能会使用部分闲置现金来加速其流媒体运营。</blockquote></p><p> The coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.</p><p><blockquote>冠状病毒让迪士尼措手不及，但管理层毫不犹豫地打开了一毛钱。整个庞然大物现在正朝着不同的方向前进，得到了将公司带到今天这一步的相同的讲故事资产宝库的支持。从长远来看，这家管理非常出色的公司也跑赢了市场，10 年收益为 439%，复合年增长率为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110cd288830d0e354767349fe36259e6\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The common denominator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公分母</b></blockquote></p><p> These three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司截然不同，但它们仍然有一个非常重要的共同点。面对顺境和逆境，我在寻找灵活性。如果你的公司准备在周围的商业环境发生变化时对其运营计划进行彻底的改变，你就知道你有一个经得起时间考验的组织。</blockquote></p><p> Lots of&nbsp;time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.</p><p><blockquote>在市场上的大量时间等于积累财富的回报。这是你可以从本杰明·格雷厄姆的著作和他的明星学生沃伦·巴菲特的优异成绩中学到的主要教训。积累改变生活的财富并不需要几年的惊人回报。你所需要的通常是几十年的稳健收益。</blockquote></p><p> For example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with&nbsp;the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.</p><p><blockquote>例如，10% 的年回报率（与长期市场平均水平一致）加起来 20 年后利润高达 673%。在这个长期尺度上，以微弱优势击败华尔街会产生很大的影响。将您的平均收益提高到仅 11%，您将在这 20 年内看到 806% 的回报。更大的增长会带来更大的长期总回报。上面讨论的三只股票都是为了做得更好，从长远来看，它们的生存几乎是由市场条件需要时改变的意愿所保证的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼","GOOGL":"谷歌A","NFLX":"奈飞","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114320591","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.\nLet me show you why I intend to hold Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.\n1. Netflix\nFirst, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in 2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.\nGoing all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:\nNFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nNetflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.\nThese days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.\n2. Alphabet\nAlphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.\nBy 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.\nGoogle is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.\nIf the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.\nGOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAlphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.\n3. Walt Disney\nAnd then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.\nThe leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.\nTimes are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.\nThe company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.\nThe coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThe common denominator\nThese three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.\nLots of time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.\nFor example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":837346884,"gmtCreate":1629859532948,"gmtModify":1633681877685,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Based","listText":"Based","text":"Based","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837346884","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810185812,"gmtCreate":1629952465436,"gmtModify":1633681205430,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my pp hardddd","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my pp hardddd","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my pp hardddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2321bff80c1bf917e26fdfca31bbf3c2","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810185812","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896979373,"gmtCreate":1628553729792,"gmtModify":1633746266931,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lube up boys","listText":"Lube up boys","text":"Lube up boys","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896979373","repostId":"1142685473","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837362559,"gmtCreate":1629857957171,"gmtModify":1633681893182,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Semicon industry looking good&nbsp;","listText":"Semicon industry looking good&nbsp;","text":"Semicon industry looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837362559","repostId":"2162082230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831004907,"gmtCreate":1629270202109,"gmtModify":1633686075505,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buying the dip","listText":"Buying the dip","text":"Buying the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004907","repostId":"1146130472","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810117644,"gmtCreate":1629951886888,"gmtModify":1633681211002,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dolla dolla","listText":"Dolla dolla","text":"Dolla dolla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810117644","repostId":"1101434650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831004442,"gmtCreate":1629270243586,"gmtModify":1633686074956,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gotta be prepared&nbsp;","listText":"Gotta be prepared&nbsp;","text":"Gotta be prepared","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004442","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119160710?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>市场连续6个月呈现积极态势……接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>连续。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个'危险信号'是标普500已连续 6 个月实现正回报。</i><i><b>如下图 10 年月度图表所示，此类连胜很少见，当它们确实发生时，通常会遇到一个月或更长时间的负回报。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（还值得注意的是，当 12 个月 RSI 如此超买时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，我在上面的图表中只追溯到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6 个积极的市场月份 – 长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特-席勒博士的长期名义股市数据，我计算出了每月正回报率，然后突出显示了 6 个或更多正市场月的时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表现的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期看涨期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演时段经常，但并不总是，</i><i><b>先于相当不错的市场调整或熊市。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续两个月或更长时间正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>表格显示的是，近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后至少有一个月的消极表现。23%的情况下出现连续三个月的阳性，只有14%的情况持续4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次出现6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或以上的时期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有修正。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，运行都至少以负回报月份结束，但绝大多数以更深层次的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，没有人担心<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场上<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储每月仍注入 1200 亿美元的流动性，投资者明白了<i>“殴打将持续到士气好转为止。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场上涨有可能在历史上最长的一段时间内继续有增无减。唯一的问题是它什么时候结束，会有多大的调整？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因是，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么面对 2020 年 2 月的 “大流行病 ”，市场表现相当不错的原因。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的是，“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关闭”</i>经济的。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者争相 “退出 ”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>校正大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场严重偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，并且经常导致 20% 或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该注意他们所承担的'风险'的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延长、偏离和看涨的时候。”</i>历史上只有 6 次市场同时如此延长、看涨和超买。这些时期都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，自 1925 年以来，72 个月移动平均线一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反移动平均线是罕见的，只发生在<i>“均值恢复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，要修正72个月移动平均线，需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，同样的情绪在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期手段的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候，我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>市场目前定价完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。在估值在许多层面上仍然过高的情况下，这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，8月和9月市场历来表现疲软。然而，鉴于已经有6个月的积极市场，调整的风险已经显着上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统上任的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储可能会讨论<i>“锥形”</i>资产购买以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要解决<i>幽灵</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>问题很简单，<i>“风险”</i>修正的程度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么，不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下几点，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该'卖掉一切'和'藏现金'。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理就是管理<i>“风险”</i>通过<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有一个<i>“一般般”</i>在扑克桌上，你下注少或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你会起身离开餐桌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最能说明问题的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即获利）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖掉那些不起作用的职位。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间不跟随市场反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会进一步下跌。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>将追踪止损向上移动</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>相对于您的风险承受能力审查您的投资组合配置。</i></b><i>如果你在市场周期的这个阶段积极配置股票，你可能想试着回忆一下你在2008年的感受。提高现金水平并相应增加固定收入，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我错了吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但如果指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进展的初始阶段，或；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复收支平衡，这和赚钱是不一样的。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比弥补资本损失要容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>市场连续6个月呈现积极态势……接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?<blockquote>市场连续6个月呈现积极态势……接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 14:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p><p><blockquote>在上周末的时事通讯中，我讨论了<b><i>6-积极的市场月份</i></b>连续。即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i>   <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i>   <i>“</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“另一个'危险信号'是标普500已连续 6 个月实现正回报。</i><i><b>如下图 10 年月度图表所示，此类连胜很少见，当它们确实发生时，通常会遇到一个月或更长时间的负回报。</b></i><i>“</i><i>（还值得注意的是，当 12 个月 RSI 如此超买时，已经发生了更大的修正过程。）</i></blockquote></p><p> As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，我在上面的图表中只追溯到了10年前。这产生了几个电子邮件问题，询问长期历史事件的数量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6 个积极的市场月份 – 长期</b></blockquote></p><p> Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p><p><blockquote>利用罗伯特-席勒博士的长期名义股市数据，我计算出了每月正回报率，然后突出显示了 6 个或更多正市场月的时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p><p><blockquote>从上面的图表中可以得出几个重要的结论。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>  <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>  <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li> </ol> The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>所有连续表现的时期最终都会结束。</b><i>（虽然这似乎是显而易见的，但投资者在长期看涨期间往往会忘记这一点。）</i></li><li><i>鉴于极长的市场历史，</i><i><b>如此长时间的看涨表现有些罕见。</b></i></li><li><i>这样的表演时段经常，但并不总是，</i><i><b>先于相当不错的市场调整或熊市。</b></i></li></ol>下表显示了连续两个月或更长时间正回报的所有时期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p><p><blockquote>表格显示的是，近40%的情况下，两个月的积极表现之后至少有一个月的消极表现。23%的情况下出现连续三个月的阳性，只有14%的情况持续4个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p><p><blockquote><b>自1871年以来，在出现负月份之前，只有12次出现6个月或更长时间的正回报。</b>总共只有40次发生，在245个2个月或以上的时期中，市场运行了6个月或更长时间没有修正。</blockquote></p><p> However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在每个时期，运行都至少以负回报月份结束，但绝大多数以更深层次的调整结束。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>这次不一样</u></b></blockquote></p><p> At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，没有人担心<i>“风险”</i>在金融市场上<i>“看涨偏见”</i>仍然不受约束。由于美联储每月仍注入 1200 亿美元的流动性，投资者明白了<i>“殴打将持续到士气好转为止。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场上涨有可能在历史上最长的一段时间内继续有增无减。唯一的问题是它什么时候结束，会有多大的调整？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p><p><blockquote><b>什么会导致修正不得而知？</b>原因是，如果市场意识到某个问题，参与者<i>“价格”</i>那个<i>“风险”</i>进入市场。这就是为什么，特别是当投资者在市场上积极定位时，当意外的外部事件发生时，价格迅速下跌<i>“风险”</i>减少。</blockquote></p><p> Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么面对 2020 年 2 月的 “大流行病 ”，市场表现相当不错的原因。然而，市场参与者没有准备好的是，“外生”事件是完整的<i>“关闭”</i>经济的。</blockquote></p><p> So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p><p><blockquote>因此，无论什么事件导致投资者争相 “退出 ”，都不是我们目前在财经媒体上讨论或担心的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>校正大小</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>修正的幅度是一个更容易回答的问题。</b></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>目前，市场严重偏离其2年（24个月）移动平均线。这种极端偏差在历史上是罕见的，并且经常导致 20% 或更多的修正。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们在<i><b>“过去的表现并不能保证。”</b></i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>  There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p><p><blockquote><i>“这也是投资者应该注意他们所承担的'风险'的地方。如图所示，历史上很少有月度指数如此延长、偏离和看涨的时候。”</i>历史上只有 6 次市场同时如此延长、看涨和超买。这些时期都标志着更多的历史表现高峰——1929年、1937年、1946年、1957年、1987年、1999年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p><p><blockquote>重要的是，自 1925 年以来，72 个月移动平均线一直是市场的长期运行支撑。违反移动平均线是罕见的，只发生在<i>“均值恢复”</i>熊市。<b>目前，要修正72个月移动平均线，需要下跌36.5%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p><p><blockquote>目前，鉴于目前的情况，这种修正似乎不太可能<i>“看涨情绪。”</i>然而，同样的情绪在2020年2月市场测试这一支撑之前比比皆是。</blockquote></p><p> Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于与长期手段的巨大偏差，我们怀疑在未来的某个时候，我们可能会再次测试这种支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>进入野兽的肚子</u></b></blockquote></p><p> The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p><p><blockquote>市场目前定价完美。投资者继续无视经济增长放缓的警告，希望货币干预将无限期地持续下去。虽然情况确实可能如此，但这并不排除市场出现调整或更糟的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p><p><blockquote>利率继续大幅下降，表明经济增长正在迅速减弱。在估值在许多层面上仍然过高的情况下，这将导致未来几个月的盈利令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p><p><blockquote>由于各种原因，8月和9月市场历来表现疲软。然而，鉴于已经有6个月的积极市场，调整的风险已经显着上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote><b>新总统上任的第一年在8月至9月期间也表现不佳。</b>随着“债务上限”的临近，美联储可能会讨论<i>“锥形”</i>资产购买以及经济报告可能令人失望，有很多事情需要解决<i>幽灵</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p><p><blockquote>问题很简单，<i>“风险”</i>修正的程度现在提高了。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>这意味着什么，不意味着什么</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p><p><blockquote>让我重复以下几点，以免混淆。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>  As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“这种分析并不意味着你应该'卖掉一切'和'藏现金'。”</b></i>一如既往，长期投资组合管理就是管理<i>“风险”</i>通过<i>“调整”</i>随着时间的推移。</blockquote></p><p> If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有一个<i>“一般般”</i>在扑克桌上，你下注少或弃牌。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着你会起身离开餐桌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这一分析最能说明问题的是，我们应该利用反弹来重新平衡投资组合。</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>修剪获胜位置</i></b><i>回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即获利）</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>卖掉那些不起作用的职位。</i></b><i>如果它们在反弹期间不跟随市场反弹，那么当市场再次抛售时，它们就会进一步下跌。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>将追踪止损向上移动</i></b><i>达到新的水平。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b><i>相对于您的风险承受能力审查您的投资组合配置。</i></b><i>如果你在市场周期的这个阶段积极配置股票，你可能想试着回忆一下你在2008年的感受。提高现金水平并相应增加固定收入，以减少相对市场敞口。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p><p><blockquote><b>我错了吗？</b>绝对的。</blockquote></p><p> But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p><p><blockquote>但如果指标警告我们一些更重要的事情呢？</blockquote></p><p> What’s worse:</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i>暂时错过长期进展的初始阶段，或；</i></li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>花时间恢复收支平衡，这和赚钱是不一样的。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我最近在我们的博客中提到的<b><i>交易规则：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“</i>   <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b>   <b>&nbsp;–</b>   <i>Todd Harrison</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>“</i><b><i>弥补机会比弥补资本损失要容易得多。”</i></b><b> –</b><i>托德·哈里森</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809659012,"gmtCreate":1627367787736,"gmtModify":1633765667704,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad news&nbsp;","listText":"Bad news&nbsp;","text":"Bad news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809659012","repostId":"2154993011","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}