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Fatidiote83

Fatidiote83

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2021-10-31

😆

Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>

2021-10-27

[Happy]

Buckle Up For Apple’s Earnings Day: Here’s What To Know<blockquote>系好安全带迎接苹果财报日：以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>

2021-10-20

Learning from history

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2021-08-23

[Happy]

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2021-08-13

🥺

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2021-08-12

👍🏻

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2021-08-08

//@Fatidiote83:Yes

Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>

2021-08-08

Yes

Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>

2021-07-22

Bit coin

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In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股票数量从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股票数量从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855369004,"gmtCreate":1635337444115,"gmtModify":1635337444115,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855369004","repostId":"1139410348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139410348","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635325558,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139410348?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-27 17:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buckle Up For Apple’s Earnings Day: Here’s What To Know<blockquote>系好安全带迎接苹果财报日：以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139410348","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Apple is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and","content":"<p>Apple is&nbsp;scheduled&nbsp;to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and the Apple Maven will follow all the action via live blog. Today, we look at what investors should expect of the event and discuss what could happen to Apple stock(<b>AAPL</b>) .</p><p><blockquote>苹果定于10月28日星期四收盘后公布第四季度财报，这位苹果专家将通过实时博客关注所有动态。今天，我们来看看投资者对这一事件的预期，并讨论苹果股票可能会发生什么（<b>AAPL</b>).</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s expectations</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的期望</blockquote></p><p> Analysts&nbsp;expect&nbsp;to see the Cupertino company report revenues of $84.8 billion this time, meaning an increase of a bit more than 30% YOY. Keep in mind that these high levels of growth will be against&nbsp;very easy comps last year&nbsp;that were impacted by COVID-19 and the delayed launch of the iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这家库比蒂诺公司此次的营收将达到848亿美元，同比增长略高于30%。请记住，这些高水平的增长将与去年受到COVID-19和iPhone 12推迟发布影响的非常轻松的比较形成对比。</blockquote></p><p> On earnings, consensus points at EPS of $1.24 vs. a much lower $0.73 this time last year. Fiscal Q4 consensus EPS has inched higher by about a penny in the past few weeks and moved up by around a dime since right before last quarter’s earnings season. Clearly, Wall Street has become progressively more optimistic about Apple’s upcoming earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利方面，市场普遍认为每股收益为1.24美元，而去年同期为0.73美元。过去几周，第四财季普遍每股收益小幅上涨了约1美分，自上季度财报季之前以来上涨了约1美分。显然，华尔街对苹果即将发布的财报变得越来越乐观。</blockquote></p><p> It is worth refreshing our memory on Apple’s own guidance for the quarter. This is what CFO Luca Maestri had to say, about three months ago (as paraphrased by the Apple Maven):</p><p><blockquote>值得我们回顾一下苹果自己对本季度的指导。这是首席财务官卢卡·马埃斯特里(Luca Maestri)大约三个月前所说的话（正如《苹果专家》所解释的）：</blockquote></p><p>   “No revenue outlook, only directional comments. If COVID-19 impact does not worsen, expect double-digit growth in sales, but lower than the 36% of the June quarter due to FX at three percentage points of drag, services going back to ‘normal’, and supply constraints greater this time on iPhone and iPad. Gross margin 41.5% to 42.5%; Opex $11.3 billion to $11.5 billion; Other income zero; Tax rate 16%.”  Key topics of conversation</p><p><blockquote>“没有收入展望，只有方向性评论。如果COVID-19的影响没有恶化，预计销售额将实现两位数增长，但由于外汇拖累3个百分点，低于6月份季度的36%，服务恢复‘正常’，以及这次iPhone和iPad的供应限制更大。毛利率41.5%至42.5%；运营支出113亿美元至115亿美元；其他收入为零；税率16%。”谈话的关键话题</blockquote></p><p> As usual, the iPhone will likely be a center-of-attention business. Not only do smartphones account for roughly half of Apple’s total revenues, but the segment also seems to have been a beneficiary of two successful product launches in the past 12 months: the 5G-ready iPhone 12 and iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，iPhone可能会成为人们关注的焦点。智能手机不仅约占苹果总收入的一半，而且该细分市场似乎也是过去12个月两款成功产品发布的受益者：支持5G的iPhone 12和iPhone 13。</blockquote></p><p> I have talked about the iPhone at length recently. First, the “super cycle thesis”seems to be proving right, at least judging by third-party research reports. However, keep in mind the&nbsp;debate around the supply chain challenges, as it could provide clues about device sales in the important holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>我最近详细谈论了iPhone。首先，“超级周期论题”似乎被证明是正确的，至少从第三方研究报告来看是这样。然而，请记住围绕供应链挑战的争论，因为它可以提供有关重要假期季度设备销售的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Services will likely be another hot topic. The bad news is that any potential drag&nbsp;from the App Store debacle&nbsp;may be reflected in the company’s guidance for fiscal first quarter, even if the impact may not be felt in fiscal Q4 results. The better news is that strength in the iPhone and other products could help to propel user engagement and consumption of Apple’s services, something that not even Apple’s management team might have been able to factor into their guidance last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>服务可能会成为另一个热门话题。坏消息是，App Store崩溃带来的任何潜在拖累都可能反映在该公司第一财季的指引中，即使第四财季业绩中可能感受不到这种影响。更好的消息是，iPhone和其他产品的实力可能有助于推动用户参与度和苹果服务的消费，即使是苹果的管理团队也可能无法将其纳入上季度的指导中。</blockquote></p><p> What to expect of AAPL stock</p><p><blockquote>对AAPL股票的期待</blockquote></p><p> A few months ago,I did a study on Apple share price behavior&nbsp;ahead of earnings seasons. At the median, AAPL has risen just short of 5% in the two weeks following the announcement of the company’s quarterly results. This is much better than Apple stock’s average two-week performance outside the earnings period – a.k.a. the “control group”. See chart below.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，我在财报季之前对苹果股价行为进行了研究。按中位数计算，AAPL在公布季度业绩后的两周内上涨了近5%。这比苹果股票在收益期之外（也称为“对照组”）两周的平均表现要好得多。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4261df569b5d66c7ee39b0feb401d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"690\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be encouraging news for Apple stock investors – more so considering that AAPL remains below its all-time high, although now by only 5%. Maybe more importantly to long-term holders of the shares, I think thatreasonable valuations,stabilizing yieldsanda drop in volatilityall conspire in favor of the stock at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果股票投资者来说，这可能是一个令人鼓舞的消息——考虑到AAPL的股价仍低于历史高点，尽管目前仅下跌了5%，这一点更是如此。也许对于股票的长期持有者来说更重要的是，我认为合理的估值、稳定的收益率和波动性的下降都有利于该股目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buckle Up For Apple’s Earnings Day: Here’s What To Know<blockquote>系好安全带迎接苹果财报日：以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuckle Up For Apple’s Earnings Day: Here’s What To Know<blockquote>系好安全带迎接苹果财报日：以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-27 17:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple is&nbsp;scheduled&nbsp;to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and the Apple Maven will follow all the action via live blog. Today, we look at what investors should expect of the event and discuss what could happen to Apple stock(<b>AAPL</b>) .</p><p><blockquote>苹果定于10月28日星期四收盘后公布第四季度财报，这位苹果专家将通过实时博客关注所有动态。今天，我们来看看投资者对这一事件的预期，并讨论苹果股票可能会发生什么（<b>AAPL</b>).</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s expectations</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的期望</blockquote></p><p> Analysts&nbsp;expect&nbsp;to see the Cupertino company report revenues of $84.8 billion this time, meaning an increase of a bit more than 30% YOY. Keep in mind that these high levels of growth will be against&nbsp;very easy comps last year&nbsp;that were impacted by COVID-19 and the delayed launch of the iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这家库比蒂诺公司此次的营收将达到848亿美元，同比增长略高于30%。请记住，这些高水平的增长将与去年受到COVID-19和iPhone 12推迟发布影响的非常轻松的比较形成对比。</blockquote></p><p> On earnings, consensus points at EPS of $1.24 vs. a much lower $0.73 this time last year. Fiscal Q4 consensus EPS has inched higher by about a penny in the past few weeks and moved up by around a dime since right before last quarter’s earnings season. Clearly, Wall Street has become progressively more optimistic about Apple’s upcoming earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利方面，市场普遍认为每股收益为1.24美元，而去年同期为0.73美元。过去几周，第四财季普遍每股收益小幅上涨了约1美分，自上季度财报季之前以来上涨了约1美分。显然，华尔街对苹果即将发布的财报变得越来越乐观。</blockquote></p><p> It is worth refreshing our memory on Apple’s own guidance for the quarter. This is what CFO Luca Maestri had to say, about three months ago (as paraphrased by the Apple Maven):</p><p><blockquote>值得我们回顾一下苹果自己对本季度的指导。这是首席财务官卢卡·马埃斯特里(Luca Maestri)大约三个月前所说的话（正如《苹果专家》所解释的）：</blockquote></p><p>   “No revenue outlook, only directional comments. If COVID-19 impact does not worsen, expect double-digit growth in sales, but lower than the 36% of the June quarter due to FX at three percentage points of drag, services going back to ‘normal’, and supply constraints greater this time on iPhone and iPad. Gross margin 41.5% to 42.5%; Opex $11.3 billion to $11.5 billion; Other income zero; Tax rate 16%.”  Key topics of conversation</p><p><blockquote>“没有收入展望，只有方向性评论。如果COVID-19的影响没有恶化，预计销售额将实现两位数增长，但由于外汇拖累3个百分点，低于6月份季度的36%，服务恢复‘正常’，以及这次iPhone和iPad的供应限制更大。毛利率41.5%至42.5%；运营支出113亿美元至115亿美元；其他收入为零；税率16%。”谈话的关键话题</blockquote></p><p> As usual, the iPhone will likely be a center-of-attention business. Not only do smartphones account for roughly half of Apple’s total revenues, but the segment also seems to have been a beneficiary of two successful product launches in the past 12 months: the 5G-ready iPhone 12 and iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，iPhone可能会成为人们关注的焦点。智能手机不仅约占苹果总收入的一半，而且该细分市场似乎也是过去12个月两款成功产品发布的受益者：支持5G的iPhone 12和iPhone 13。</blockquote></p><p> I have talked about the iPhone at length recently. First, the “super cycle thesis”seems to be proving right, at least judging by third-party research reports. However, keep in mind the&nbsp;debate around the supply chain challenges, as it could provide clues about device sales in the important holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>我最近详细谈论了iPhone。首先，“超级周期论题”似乎被证明是正确的，至少从第三方研究报告来看是这样。然而，请记住围绕供应链挑战的争论，因为它可以提供有关重要假期季度设备销售的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Services will likely be another hot topic. The bad news is that any potential drag&nbsp;from the App Store debacle&nbsp;may be reflected in the company’s guidance for fiscal first quarter, even if the impact may not be felt in fiscal Q4 results. The better news is that strength in the iPhone and other products could help to propel user engagement and consumption of Apple’s services, something that not even Apple’s management team might have been able to factor into their guidance last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>服务可能会成为另一个热门话题。坏消息是，App Store崩溃带来的任何潜在拖累都可能反映在该公司第一财季的指引中，即使第四财季业绩中可能感受不到这种影响。更好的消息是，iPhone和其他产品的实力可能有助于推动用户参与度和苹果服务的消费，即使是苹果的管理团队也可能无法将其纳入上季度的指导中。</blockquote></p><p> What to expect of AAPL stock</p><p><blockquote>对AAPL股票的期待</blockquote></p><p> A few months ago,I did a study on Apple share price behavior&nbsp;ahead of earnings seasons. At the median, AAPL has risen just short of 5% in the two weeks following the announcement of the company’s quarterly results. This is much better than Apple stock’s average two-week performance outside the earnings period – a.k.a. the “control group”. See chart below.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，我在财报季之前对苹果股价行为进行了研究。按中位数计算，AAPL在公布季度业绩后的两周内上涨了近5%。这比苹果股票在收益期之外（也称为“对照组”）两周的平均表现要好得多。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4261df569b5d66c7ee39b0feb401d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"690\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be encouraging news for Apple stock investors – more so considering that AAPL remains below its all-time high, although now by only 5%. Maybe more importantly to long-term holders of the shares, I think thatreasonable valuations,stabilizing yieldsanda drop in volatilityall conspire in favor of the stock at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果股票投资者来说，这可能是一个令人鼓舞的消息——考虑到AAPL的股价仍低于历史高点，尽管目前仅下跌了5%，这一点更是如此。也许对于股票的长期持有者来说更重要的是，我认为合理的估值、稳定的收益率和波动性的下降都有利于该股目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/buckle-up-for-apples-earnings-day-heres-what-to-know\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/buckle-up-for-apples-earnings-day-heres-what-to-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139410348","content_text":"Apple is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and the Apple Maven will follow all the action via live blog. Today, we look at what investors should expect of the event and discuss what could happen to Apple stock(AAPL) .\nWall Street’s expectations\nAnalysts expect to see the Cupertino company report revenues of $84.8 billion this time, meaning an increase of a bit more than 30% YOY. Keep in mind that these high levels of growth will be against very easy comps last year that were impacted by COVID-19 and the delayed launch of the iPhone 12.\nOn earnings, consensus points at EPS of $1.24 vs. a much lower $0.73 this time last year. Fiscal Q4 consensus EPS has inched higher by about a penny in the past few weeks and moved up by around a dime since right before last quarter’s earnings season. Clearly, Wall Street has become progressively more optimistic about Apple’s upcoming earnings report.\nIt is worth refreshing our memory on Apple’s own guidance for the quarter. This is what CFO Luca Maestri had to say, about three months ago (as paraphrased by the Apple Maven):\n\n “No revenue outlook, only directional comments. If COVID-19 impact does not worsen, expect double-digit growth in sales, but lower than the 36% of the June quarter due to FX at three percentage points of drag, services going back to ‘normal’, and supply constraints greater this time on iPhone and iPad. Gross margin 41.5% to 42.5%; Opex $11.3 billion to $11.5 billion; Other income zero; Tax rate 16%.”\n\nKey topics of conversation\nAs usual, the iPhone will likely be a center-of-attention business. Not only do smartphones account for roughly half of Apple’s total revenues, but the segment also seems to have been a beneficiary of two successful product launches in the past 12 months: the 5G-ready iPhone 12 and iPhone 13.\nI have talked about the iPhone at length recently. First, the “super cycle thesis”seems to be proving right, at least judging by third-party research reports. However, keep in mind the debate around the supply chain challenges, as it could provide clues about device sales in the important holiday quarter.\nServices will likely be another hot topic. The bad news is that any potential drag from the App Store debacle may be reflected in the company’s guidance for fiscal first quarter, even if the impact may not be felt in fiscal Q4 results. The better news is that strength in the iPhone and other products could help to propel user engagement and consumption of Apple’s services, something that not even Apple’s management team might have been able to factor into their guidance last quarter.\nWhat to expect of AAPL stock\nA few months ago,I did a study on Apple share price behavior ahead of earnings seasons. At the median, AAPL has risen just short of 5% in the two weeks following the announcement of the company’s quarterly results. This is much better than Apple stock’s average two-week performance outside the earnings period – a.k.a. the “control group”. See chart below.\nFigure 2: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.\nThis can be encouraging news for Apple stock investors – more so considering that AAPL remains below its all-time high, although now by only 5%. Maybe more importantly to long-term holders of the shares, I think thatreasonable valuations,stabilizing yieldsanda drop in volatilityall conspire in favor of the stock at current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853095754,"gmtCreate":1634740254953,"gmtModify":1634740306705,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Learning from history","listText":"Learning from history","text":"Learning from history","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853095754","repostId":"1166268649","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":835587061,"gmtCreate":1629727240953,"gmtModify":1633682897014,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835587061","repostId":"1102818813","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894494881,"gmtCreate":1628845471043,"gmtModify":1633689041778,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🥺","listText":"🥺","text":"🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894494881","repostId":"2159295103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895503529,"gmtCreate":1628753122061,"gmtModify":1633689766072,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895503529","repostId":"2158936289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891290336,"gmtCreate":1628389669625,"gmtModify":1633747461343,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4089880049731650\">@Fatidiote83</a>:Yes","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4089880049731650\">@Fatidiote83</a>:Yes","text":"//@Fatidiote83:Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891290336","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891200966,"gmtCreate":1628389170155,"gmtModify":1633747470949,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891200966","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172367150,"gmtCreate":1626938162770,"gmtModify":1633769562540,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089880049731650","idStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bit coin&nbsp;","listText":"Bit coin&nbsp;","text":"Bit coin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172367150","repostId":"1153484478","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":840468741,"gmtCreate":1635674016436,"gmtModify":1635674016436,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😆","listText":"😆","text":"😆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840468741","repostId":"2179471352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股票数量从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股票数量从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894494881,"gmtCreate":1628845471043,"gmtModify":1633689041778,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🥺","listText":"🥺","text":"🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894494881","repostId":"2159295103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891200966,"gmtCreate":1628389170155,"gmtModify":1633747470949,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891200966","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":853095754,"gmtCreate":1634740254953,"gmtModify":1634740306705,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Learning from history","listText":"Learning from history","text":"Learning from history","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853095754","repostId":"1166268649","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172367150,"gmtCreate":1626938162770,"gmtModify":1633769562540,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bit coin&nbsp;","listText":"Bit coin&nbsp;","text":"Bit coin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172367150","repostId":"1153484478","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":855369004,"gmtCreate":1635337444115,"gmtModify":1635337444115,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855369004","repostId":"1139410348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139410348","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635325558,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139410348?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-27 17:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buckle Up For Apple’s Earnings Day: Here’s What To Know<blockquote>系好安全带迎接苹果财报日：以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139410348","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Apple is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and","content":"<p>Apple is&nbsp;scheduled&nbsp;to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and the Apple Maven will follow all the action via live blog. Today, we look at what investors should expect of the event and discuss what could happen to Apple stock(<b>AAPL</b>) .</p><p><blockquote>苹果定于10月28日星期四收盘后公布第四季度财报，这位苹果专家将通过实时博客关注所有动态。今天，我们来看看投资者对这一事件的预期，并讨论苹果股票可能会发生什么（<b>AAPL</b>).</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s expectations</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的期望</blockquote></p><p> Analysts&nbsp;expect&nbsp;to see the Cupertino company report revenues of $84.8 billion this time, meaning an increase of a bit more than 30% YOY. Keep in mind that these high levels of growth will be against&nbsp;very easy comps last year&nbsp;that were impacted by COVID-19 and the delayed launch of the iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这家库比蒂诺公司此次的营收将达到848亿美元，同比增长略高于30%。请记住，这些高水平的增长将与去年受到COVID-19和iPhone 12推迟发布影响的非常轻松的比较形成对比。</blockquote></p><p> On earnings, consensus points at EPS of $1.24 vs. a much lower $0.73 this time last year. Fiscal Q4 consensus EPS has inched higher by about a penny in the past few weeks and moved up by around a dime since right before last quarter’s earnings season. Clearly, Wall Street has become progressively more optimistic about Apple’s upcoming earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利方面，市场普遍认为每股收益为1.24美元，而去年同期为0.73美元。过去几周，第四财季普遍每股收益小幅上涨了约1美分，自上季度财报季之前以来上涨了约1美分。显然，华尔街对苹果即将发布的财报变得越来越乐观。</blockquote></p><p> It is worth refreshing our memory on Apple’s own guidance for the quarter. This is what CFO Luca Maestri had to say, about three months ago (as paraphrased by the Apple Maven):</p><p><blockquote>值得我们回顾一下苹果自己对本季度的指导。这是首席财务官卢卡·马埃斯特里(Luca Maestri)大约三个月前所说的话（正如《苹果专家》所解释的）：</blockquote></p><p>   “No revenue outlook, only directional comments. If COVID-19 impact does not worsen, expect double-digit growth in sales, but lower than the 36% of the June quarter due to FX at three percentage points of drag, services going back to ‘normal’, and supply constraints greater this time on iPhone and iPad. Gross margin 41.5% to 42.5%; Opex $11.3 billion to $11.5 billion; Other income zero; Tax rate 16%.”  Key topics of conversation</p><p><blockquote>“没有收入展望，只有方向性评论。如果COVID-19的影响没有恶化，预计销售额将实现两位数增长，但由于外汇拖累3个百分点，低于6月份季度的36%，服务恢复‘正常’，以及这次iPhone和iPad的供应限制更大。毛利率41.5%至42.5%；运营支出113亿美元至115亿美元；其他收入为零；税率16%。”谈话的关键话题</blockquote></p><p> As usual, the iPhone will likely be a center-of-attention business. Not only do smartphones account for roughly half of Apple’s total revenues, but the segment also seems to have been a beneficiary of two successful product launches in the past 12 months: the 5G-ready iPhone 12 and iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，iPhone可能会成为人们关注的焦点。智能手机不仅约占苹果总收入的一半，而且该细分市场似乎也是过去12个月两款成功产品发布的受益者：支持5G的iPhone 12和iPhone 13。</blockquote></p><p> I have talked about the iPhone at length recently. First, the “super cycle thesis”seems to be proving right, at least judging by third-party research reports. However, keep in mind the&nbsp;debate around the supply chain challenges, as it could provide clues about device sales in the important holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>我最近详细谈论了iPhone。首先，“超级周期论题”似乎被证明是正确的，至少从第三方研究报告来看是这样。然而，请记住围绕供应链挑战的争论，因为它可以提供有关重要假期季度设备销售的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Services will likely be another hot topic. The bad news is that any potential drag&nbsp;from the App Store debacle&nbsp;may be reflected in the company’s guidance for fiscal first quarter, even if the impact may not be felt in fiscal Q4 results. The better news is that strength in the iPhone and other products could help to propel user engagement and consumption of Apple’s services, something that not even Apple’s management team might have been able to factor into their guidance last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>服务可能会成为另一个热门话题。坏消息是，App Store崩溃带来的任何潜在拖累都可能反映在该公司第一财季的指引中，即使第四财季业绩中可能感受不到这种影响。更好的消息是，iPhone和其他产品的实力可能有助于推动用户参与度和苹果服务的消费，即使是苹果的管理团队也可能无法将其纳入上季度的指导中。</blockquote></p><p> What to expect of AAPL stock</p><p><blockquote>对AAPL股票的期待</blockquote></p><p> A few months ago,I did a study on Apple share price behavior&nbsp;ahead of earnings seasons. At the median, AAPL has risen just short of 5% in the two weeks following the announcement of the company’s quarterly results. This is much better than Apple stock’s average two-week performance outside the earnings period – a.k.a. the “control group”. See chart below.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，我在财报季之前对苹果股价行为进行了研究。按中位数计算，AAPL在公布季度业绩后的两周内上涨了近5%。这比苹果股票在收益期之外（也称为“对照组”）两周的平均表现要好得多。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4261df569b5d66c7ee39b0feb401d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"690\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be encouraging news for Apple stock investors – more so considering that AAPL remains below its all-time high, although now by only 5%. Maybe more importantly to long-term holders of the shares, I think thatreasonable valuations,stabilizing yieldsanda drop in volatilityall conspire in favor of the stock at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果股票投资者来说，这可能是一个令人鼓舞的消息——考虑到AAPL的股价仍低于历史高点，尽管目前仅下跌了5%，这一点更是如此。也许对于股票的长期持有者来说更重要的是，我认为合理的估值、稳定的收益率和波动性的下降都有利于该股目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buckle Up For Apple’s Earnings Day: Here’s What To Know<blockquote>系好安全带迎接苹果财报日：以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuckle Up For Apple’s Earnings Day: Here’s What To Know<blockquote>系好安全带迎接苹果财报日：以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-27 17:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple is&nbsp;scheduled&nbsp;to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and the Apple Maven will follow all the action via live blog. Today, we look at what investors should expect of the event and discuss what could happen to Apple stock(<b>AAPL</b>) .</p><p><blockquote>苹果定于10月28日星期四收盘后公布第四季度财报，这位苹果专家将通过实时博客关注所有动态。今天，我们来看看投资者对这一事件的预期，并讨论苹果股票可能会发生什么（<b>AAPL</b>).</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s expectations</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的期望</blockquote></p><p> Analysts&nbsp;expect&nbsp;to see the Cupertino company report revenues of $84.8 billion this time, meaning an increase of a bit more than 30% YOY. Keep in mind that these high levels of growth will be against&nbsp;very easy comps last year&nbsp;that were impacted by COVID-19 and the delayed launch of the iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，这家库比蒂诺公司此次的营收将达到848亿美元，同比增长略高于30%。请记住，这些高水平的增长将与去年受到COVID-19和iPhone 12推迟发布影响的非常轻松的比较形成对比。</blockquote></p><p> On earnings, consensus points at EPS of $1.24 vs. a much lower $0.73 this time last year. Fiscal Q4 consensus EPS has inched higher by about a penny in the past few weeks and moved up by around a dime since right before last quarter’s earnings season. Clearly, Wall Street has become progressively more optimistic about Apple’s upcoming earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>在盈利方面，市场普遍认为每股收益为1.24美元，而去年同期为0.73美元。过去几周，第四财季普遍每股收益小幅上涨了约1美分，自上季度财报季之前以来上涨了约1美分。显然，华尔街对苹果即将发布的财报变得越来越乐观。</blockquote></p><p> It is worth refreshing our memory on Apple’s own guidance for the quarter. This is what CFO Luca Maestri had to say, about three months ago (as paraphrased by the Apple Maven):</p><p><blockquote>值得我们回顾一下苹果自己对本季度的指导。这是首席财务官卢卡·马埃斯特里(Luca Maestri)大约三个月前所说的话（正如《苹果专家》所解释的）：</blockquote></p><p>   “No revenue outlook, only directional comments. If COVID-19 impact does not worsen, expect double-digit growth in sales, but lower than the 36% of the June quarter due to FX at three percentage points of drag, services going back to ‘normal’, and supply constraints greater this time on iPhone and iPad. Gross margin 41.5% to 42.5%; Opex $11.3 billion to $11.5 billion; Other income zero; Tax rate 16%.”  Key topics of conversation</p><p><blockquote>“没有收入展望，只有方向性评论。如果COVID-19的影响没有恶化，预计销售额将实现两位数增长，但由于外汇拖累3个百分点，低于6月份季度的36%，服务恢复‘正常’，以及这次iPhone和iPad的供应限制更大。毛利率41.5%至42.5%；运营支出113亿美元至115亿美元；其他收入为零；税率16%。”谈话的关键话题</blockquote></p><p> As usual, the iPhone will likely be a center-of-attention business. Not only do smartphones account for roughly half of Apple’s total revenues, but the segment also seems to have been a beneficiary of two successful product launches in the past 12 months: the 5G-ready iPhone 12 and iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，iPhone可能会成为人们关注的焦点。智能手机不仅约占苹果总收入的一半，而且该细分市场似乎也是过去12个月两款成功产品发布的受益者：支持5G的iPhone 12和iPhone 13。</blockquote></p><p> I have talked about the iPhone at length recently. First, the “super cycle thesis”seems to be proving right, at least judging by third-party research reports. However, keep in mind the&nbsp;debate around the supply chain challenges, as it could provide clues about device sales in the important holiday quarter.</p><p><blockquote>我最近详细谈论了iPhone。首先，“超级周期论题”似乎被证明是正确的，至少从第三方研究报告来看是这样。然而，请记住围绕供应链挑战的争论，因为它可以提供有关重要假期季度设备销售的线索。</blockquote></p><p> Services will likely be another hot topic. The bad news is that any potential drag&nbsp;from the App Store debacle&nbsp;may be reflected in the company’s guidance for fiscal first quarter, even if the impact may not be felt in fiscal Q4 results. The better news is that strength in the iPhone and other products could help to propel user engagement and consumption of Apple’s services, something that not even Apple’s management team might have been able to factor into their guidance last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>服务可能会成为另一个热门话题。坏消息是，App Store崩溃带来的任何潜在拖累都可能反映在该公司第一财季的指引中，即使第四财季业绩中可能感受不到这种影响。更好的消息是，iPhone和其他产品的实力可能有助于推动用户参与度和苹果服务的消费，即使是苹果的管理团队也可能无法将其纳入上季度的指导中。</blockquote></p><p> What to expect of AAPL stock</p><p><blockquote>对AAPL股票的期待</blockquote></p><p> A few months ago,I did a study on Apple share price behavior&nbsp;ahead of earnings seasons. At the median, AAPL has risen just short of 5% in the two weeks following the announcement of the company’s quarterly results. This is much better than Apple stock’s average two-week performance outside the earnings period – a.k.a. the “control group”. See chart below.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，我在财报季之前对苹果股价行为进行了研究。按中位数计算，AAPL在公布季度业绩后的两周内上涨了近5%。这比苹果股票在收益期之外（也称为“对照组”）两周的平均表现要好得多。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ce4261df569b5d66c7ee39b0feb401d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"690\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：两周回报率中位数，盈利与非盈利。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be encouraging news for Apple stock investors – more so considering that AAPL remains below its all-time high, although now by only 5%. Maybe more importantly to long-term holders of the shares, I think thatreasonable valuations,stabilizing yieldsanda drop in volatilityall conspire in favor of the stock at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果股票投资者来说，这可能是一个令人鼓舞的消息——考虑到AAPL的股价仍低于历史高点，尽管目前仅下跌了5%，这一点更是如此。也许对于股票的长期持有者来说更重要的是，我认为合理的估值、稳定的收益率和波动性的下降都有利于该股目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/buckle-up-for-apples-earnings-day-heres-what-to-know\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/buckle-up-for-apples-earnings-day-heres-what-to-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139410348","content_text":"Apple is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 results on Thursday, October 28, after the closing bell – and the Apple Maven will follow all the action via live blog. Today, we look at what investors should expect of the event and discuss what could happen to Apple stock(AAPL) .\nWall Street’s expectations\nAnalysts expect to see the Cupertino company report revenues of $84.8 billion this time, meaning an increase of a bit more than 30% YOY. Keep in mind that these high levels of growth will be against very easy comps last year that were impacted by COVID-19 and the delayed launch of the iPhone 12.\nOn earnings, consensus points at EPS of $1.24 vs. a much lower $0.73 this time last year. Fiscal Q4 consensus EPS has inched higher by about a penny in the past few weeks and moved up by around a dime since right before last quarter’s earnings season. Clearly, Wall Street has become progressively more optimistic about Apple’s upcoming earnings report.\nIt is worth refreshing our memory on Apple’s own guidance for the quarter. This is what CFO Luca Maestri had to say, about three months ago (as paraphrased by the Apple Maven):\n\n “No revenue outlook, only directional comments. If COVID-19 impact does not worsen, expect double-digit growth in sales, but lower than the 36% of the June quarter due to FX at three percentage points of drag, services going back to ‘normal’, and supply constraints greater this time on iPhone and iPad. Gross margin 41.5% to 42.5%; Opex $11.3 billion to $11.5 billion; Other income zero; Tax rate 16%.”\n\nKey topics of conversation\nAs usual, the iPhone will likely be a center-of-attention business. Not only do smartphones account for roughly half of Apple’s total revenues, but the segment also seems to have been a beneficiary of two successful product launches in the past 12 months: the 5G-ready iPhone 12 and iPhone 13.\nI have talked about the iPhone at length recently. First, the “super cycle thesis”seems to be proving right, at least judging by third-party research reports. However, keep in mind the debate around the supply chain challenges, as it could provide clues about device sales in the important holiday quarter.\nServices will likely be another hot topic. The bad news is that any potential drag from the App Store debacle may be reflected in the company’s guidance for fiscal first quarter, even if the impact may not be felt in fiscal Q4 results. The better news is that strength in the iPhone and other products could help to propel user engagement and consumption of Apple’s services, something that not even Apple’s management team might have been able to factor into their guidance last quarter.\nWhat to expect of AAPL stock\nA few months ago,I did a study on Apple share price behavior ahead of earnings seasons. At the median, AAPL has risen just short of 5% in the two weeks following the announcement of the company’s quarterly results. This is much better than Apple stock’s average two-week performance outside the earnings period – a.k.a. the “control group”. See chart below.\nFigure 2: Median 2-week returns, earnings vs. non-earnings.\nThis can be encouraging news for Apple stock investors – more so considering that AAPL remains below its all-time high, although now by only 5%. Maybe more importantly to long-term holders of the shares, I think thatreasonable valuations,stabilizing yieldsanda drop in volatilityall conspire in favor of the stock at current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":895503529,"gmtCreate":1628753122061,"gmtModify":1633689766072,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895503529","repostId":"2158936289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835587061,"gmtCreate":1629727240953,"gmtModify":1633682897014,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835587061","repostId":"1102818813","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891290336,"gmtCreate":1628389669625,"gmtModify":1633747461343,"author":{"id":"4089880049731650","authorId":"4089880049731650","name":"Fatidiote83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb9d3d0ae6ea3eade6ebcdb25e041727","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089880049731650","authorIdStr":"4089880049731650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4089880049731650\">@Fatidiote83</a>:Yes","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4089880049731650\">@Fatidiote83</a>:Yes","text":"//@Fatidiote83:Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891290336","repostId":"1159872041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159872041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628385224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159872041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159872041","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.It's been a wild year for Teslastock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.In February,Piper Sandler analys","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Headed to $1,200?<blockquote>特斯拉股票：将升至1,200美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.</li>  <li>Rising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.</li>  <li>Investors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.</li> </ul> It's been a wild year for&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 18% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉第二季度的交付量同比增长了一倍多。</li><li>电动汽车需求的增长可能有利于特斯拉。</li><li>投资者在考虑分析师的目标价时应保持谨慎。</li></ul>这是疯狂的一年<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）股票。今年年初，股价最初飙升超过20%。但该股现在已经回吐了所有涨幅，今年迄今的回报率为负1%。这意味着该股的表现明显落后于<b>标普500</b>今年增长了18%。</blockquote></p><p> But one analyst thinks the stock could take off.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师认为该股可能会起飞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"We still really like this stock.\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In February,<b>Piper Sandler</b>&nbsp;analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.</p><p><blockquote>2月份，<b>派珀·桑德勒</b>分析师Alexander Potter做出了大胆的看涨期权，将这只成长型股票的12个月目标价从515美元上调至1,200美元。他表示，特斯拉的交付量可能会从2020年的50万辆增加到今年的近90万辆。当然，这一预测是在全球供应短缺恶化之前做出的。尽管如此，特斯拉的增长速度极快。该公司第二季度的交付量比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到201,304辆。</blockquote></p><p> Following Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.</p><p><blockquote>继特斯拉上月底发布第二季度财报后，该分析师重申了这一目标，并指出该公司似乎有望受益于市场份额的增长、该公司自动驾驶软件的货币化以及特斯拉能源业务中“未被充分重视的机会”，其中包括电池储能和太阳能发电产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Further, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.</p><p><blockquote>此外，波特指出，特斯拉第二季度营业利润率强劲，为11%，他预计特斯拉最近推出的Autopilot订阅将带来增量改善。</blockquote></p><p> On Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.</p><p><blockquote>8月3日，波特再次重申了跑赢大盘对该股的评级和1200美元的目标价，称“我们仍然非常喜欢这只股票”。他指出，总体而言，对纯电动汽车的需求不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what gives?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么给了？</b></blockquote></p><p> If shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.</p><p><blockquote>如果股价真的能涨到1200美元，为什么这么多投资者似乎认为该股的价值如此之低（基于撰写本文时该股的价格略低于700美元）。毕竟，如果投资者普遍认为特斯拉股票在未来12个月内可能达到1,200美元，那么今天的股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.</p><p><blockquote>问题归结为股票的前瞻性估值。截至撰写本文时，特斯拉股价的市盈率约为370，很大程度上预计未来几年将强劲增长。由于该公司的估值很大程度上基于未来的利润，因此对特斯拉未来增长轨迹的看法略有差异，就会对该股目前的内在价值产生截然不同的假设。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者不应仅仅因为一位分析师的股价目标较高就急于购买特斯拉股票。尽管如此，波特确实对特斯拉强劲的商业势头有一些优点。就连特斯拉本身也重申了今年汽车交付量增长50%以上的指导意见，而这一指导意见是在全球许多公司（包括特斯拉）都受到供应链短缺的负面影响之际提供的。此外，特斯拉管理层在第二季度更新中指出，进入第三季度，对其车辆的需求创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉股票1,200美元的目标价很难证明合理，但该股的交易价格可能足够低，投资者可以在该股建立少量头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/07/tesla-stock-headed-to-1200/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159872041","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTesla deliveries more than doubled year over year in Q2.\nRising demand for electric vehicles could benefit Tesla.\nInvestors should exercise caution when it comes to analysts' price targets.\n\nIt's been a wild year for Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)stock. When the year started, shares initially surged more than 20%. But the stock has now given up all of those gains, with a year-to-date return of negative 1%. This means the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500's 18% gain this year.\nBut one analyst thinks the stock could take off.\n\"We still really like this stock.\"\nIn February,Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Pottermade a bold call, boosting his 12-month price target for thegrowth stockfrom $515 to $1,200. He said Tesla deliveries could increase from 500,000 vehicles in 2020 to nearly 900,000 this year. Of course, this projection was made before global supply shortages worsened. Nevertheless, Tesla is growing extremely rapidly. The company's second-quarter deliveries more than doubled compared to the year-ago quarter, rising to 201,304.\nFollowing Tesla's second-quarter earnings release late last month, the analyst reiterated this target, noting that the company looks poised to benefit from market share gains, the monetization of the company's Autopilot software, and \"underappreciated opportunities\" in Tesla's energy business, which includes revenue from battery energy storage and solar energy generation products.\nFurther, Potter pointed to Tesla's strong second-quarter operating margin of 11%, which he expects will see incremental improvement from Tesla's recently launched Autopilot subscription.\nOn Aug. 3, Potter once again reiterated an overweight rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, saying \"We still really like this stock.\" He pointed to growing demand for battery electric vehicles overall.\nSo what gives?\nIf shares could truly rise to $1,200, why do so many investors seem to think the stock is worth so much less (based on the stock's price of just under $700 at the time of this writing). After all, if $1,200 was generally viewed by investors as a likely outcome for Tesla stock within the next 12 months, shares would be trading significantly higher today.\nThe issue boils down to the stock's forward-looking valuation. With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 370 at the time of this writing, Tesla shares are largely priced for strong growth for years to come. Since the company's valuation is based largely on profits far into the future, slight variances in views for Tesla's future growth trajectory yield dramatically different assumptions about the stock's intrinsic value today.\nInvestors, therefore, shouldn't be quick to buy Tesla stock just because one analyst has a high price target for shares. Still, Potter does notably have some good points about Tesla's strong business momentum. Even Tesla itself reiterated guidance for vehicle deliveries to grow more than 50% this year -- and that guidance was provided during a time that many companies around the world (including Tesla) are negatively impacted by supply chain shortages. Further, Tesla management noted in its second-quarter update that demand for its vehicles was at an all-time high going into Q3.\nWhile a $1,200 price target for Tesla stock would be difficult to justify, shares may be trading low enough for investors to start a small position in the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}