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axiny
2021-07-29
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抱歉，原内容已删除
axiny
2021-07-29
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PayPal: Looking Beyond eBay's Impact<blockquote>PayPal：超越 eBay 的影响</blockquote>
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20:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Looking Beyond eBay's Impact<blockquote>PayPal：超越 eBay 的影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198546715","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.\nPayPal contends that asides from eBay","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.</li> <li>PayPal contends that asides from eBay Marketplace's migration off PayPal, its underlying business is performing very strongly.</li> <li>PayPal is priced at 13x sales. This is very attractively priced for such an entrenched high-quality payment solution platform.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4532465490efbc958deb5f9d66d7669\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal 2021 年第三季度指引令投资者大吃一惊。</li><li>PayPal认为，除了 eBay Marketplace 迁出PayPal之外，其基础业务表现非常强劲。</li><li>PayPal的定价是销售额的13倍。对于这样一个根深蒂固的高质量支付解决方案平台来说，这是一个非常有吸引力的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's (PYPL) guidance for Q3 is pointing towards a marked deceleration where its revenues are expected to grow approximately 14% y/y. However, this is predominantly due to eBay (EBAY) Marketplace exiting PayPal's platform.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal (PYPL) 对第三季度的指引显示，其收入预计同比增长约 14%，将出现明显放缓。然而，这主要是由于 eBay (eBay) 市场退出 PayPal 平台。</blockquote></p><p> For context, this will be a meaningful headwind of approximately 850 basis points during Q3, and it will slowly reduce its impact during Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就背景而言，这将是第三季度约 850 个基点的有意义的逆风，并将在 2021 年第四季度慢慢减少其影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, putting aside eBay's impact, PayPal's core operations remain strong and PayPal is still expected to grow by 20% this year,<i>including</i>e Bay's headwind.</p><p><blockquote>不过，撇开eBay的影响不谈，PayPal的核心业务依然强劲，PayPal今年仍有望增长20%，<i>包括</i>e湾的逆风。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal is expected to bring in $5 billion of free cash flow this year, putting the stock trading at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，PayPal预计今年将带来50亿美元的自由现金流，使股票交易达到自由现金流的74倍。</blockquote></p><p> In short, investors have no reason to be dissatisfied with this quarter's performance. PayPal is an attractive investment opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>总之，投资者没有理由对本季度的表现感到不满。PayPal是一个有吸引力的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Sentiment Going Into Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者情绪影响盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd702cef3486de22aca83e1d46bb8d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, contrary to countless other fast-growing names, PayPal had actually had a very strong run-up in its shares since May.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，与无数其他快速增长的公司不同，PayPal的股价实际上自 5 月份以来一直非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, given this backdrop where investors had such high expectations from PayPal, any mishap during the quarter was obviously going to take the share price down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在投资者对PayPal抱有如此高期望的背景下，本季度的任何意外显然都会导致股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's get into its results.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看它的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Slow Down, With a But</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率放缓，但</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55f4abe65fb78fef6b67c43fc1c4d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The big takeaway is that PayPal is reaffirming its guidance for 20% y/y in 2021. Having said that, the elephant in the room is that Q2 2021 saw just 19% y/y revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>最大的收获是，PayPal重申了 2021 年同比增长 20% 的指引。话虽如此，房间里的大象是 2021 年第二季度的收入同比增长率仅为 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Given that during Q1 its revenue had just grown by its fastest rate in PayPal's history, investors were minimally expecting PayPal to continue that momentum and shine this quarter. After all, this is a company that has a long history of delivering positive results and easily beating its guidance.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于第一季度其收入刚刚以 PayPal 历史上最快的速度增长，投资者至少预计PayPal将在本季度延续这一势头并大放异彩。毕竟，这是一家有着长期交付积极成果并轻松超越其指导的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <i>At the core of the after-hours reaction, we have to keep in mind that this is a company that buy-and-hold investors perceived as ''safe'' and one that ''shouldn't'' have negative surprises.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>盘后反应的核心是，我们必须记住，这是一家买入并持有投资者认为“安全”的公司，并且“不应该”出现负面意外。</i></blockquote></p><p> Hence, this rare weak quarter is more likely than not to be met by not only heavy selling in the coming days, and I fully suspect that the media will all over this stock reporting how PayPal has lost its flow.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这个罕见的疲软季度很可能不仅会在未来几天遭遇大量抛售，而且我完全怀疑媒体会到处报道PayPal如何失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal's CEO Dan Schulman points out that eBay was a headwind for PayPal during the quarter as eBay Marketplaces stopped being served by PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席执行官丹·舒尔曼 (Dan Schulman) 指出，由于PayPal不再为 eBay 市场提供服务，eBay 在本季度对PayPal来说是一个阻力。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal declares that eBay Marketplaces accounted for roughly 8% revenue growth rate headwind, which is particularly noticeable given the strong performance in the same period a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal宣称 eBay Marketplaces 的收入增长率阻力约为 8%，考虑到去年同期的强劲表现，这一点尤其引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36be5e188e36aeb4bca359735c818fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is what PayPal's CFO John Rainey said during the call:</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席财务官 John Rainey 在看涨期权上表示：</blockquote></p><p> <i>So last year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 22%, and in that number, there was a benefit of 5 percentage points of growth from eBay. So 22% revenue growth for 5 percentage points of benefit from eBay. This year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 19% and that number included 800 or 8 percentage points of headwind related to eBay's business.</i> Looking ahead, PayPal highlighted during the call that by year-end, eBay's total payment volume (''TPV'') will account for just 2.5% of PayPal TPV by year-end.</p><p><blockquote><i>因此，去年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 22%，其中 eBay 带来了 5 个百分点的增长。因此，22% 的收入增长从 eBay 中受益 5 个百分点。今年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 19%，其中包括与 eBay 业务相关的 800 个百分点或 8 个百分点的阻力。</i>展望未来，PayPal在看涨期权中强调，到年底，eBay的总支付量（“冠捷”）将仅占PayPal冠捷的2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, during Q2 2021, putting aside eBay's headwind, PayPal's revenue would have been up 32% y/y. Given that eBay will have migrated to its own payment solutions by Q4 2021, investors won't have to be patient too long until PayPal is once again reporting strong revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，在 2021 年第二季度，撇开 eBay 的阻力不谈，PayPal 的收入将同比增长 32%。鉴于 eBay 将于 2021 年第四季度迁移到自己的支付解决方案，投资者不必耐心太久，直到PayPal再次报告强劲的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, asides from eBay there's a lot to be attracted to here.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，除了易贝，这里还有很多吸引人的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Diverse Product Portfolio in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年PayPal的多元化产品组合</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest launch during the quarter was Zettle in the U.S. This is a digital point-of-sale card payment solution. Although it arrives into a very crowded space arguably a little late in the game.</p><p><blockquote>本季度最大的发布是美国的 Zettle。这是一个数字销售点卡支付解决方案。虽然它到达了一个非常拥挤的空间，可以说在游戏中有点晚。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, Venmo was also a latecomer to the digital wallet space and that hasn't stopped Venmo's performance in Q2 2021 growing its total payment volume by 58% y/y to $58 billion. This translated into Venmo increasing its revenues by 70% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Venmo 也是数字钱包领域的后来者，但这并没有阻止 Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现，其总支付量同比增长 58%，达到 580 亿美元。这意味着 Venmo 的收入同比增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p> Venmo's performance during Q2 2021 was driven by robust crypto trading on the platform.</p><p><blockquote>Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现是由该平台上强劲的加密货币交易推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Also, PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later is resonating with consumers and merchants with momentum accelerating sequentially from Q1 2021 to Q2 by 50%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal 的“先买后付”正在引起消费者和商家的共鸣，从 2021 年第一季度到第二季度，势头连续加速 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Altogether, despite investing in different products launches, PayPal still generates strong free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，尽管投资于不同的产品发布，PayPal仍然产生了强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal is a Free Cash Flow Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal是一台自由现金流机器</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0733d4c917e606b41fdf9a31c91d13\" tg-width=\"322\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> During Q2 2021, PayPal's free cash flow was down 33% y/y to $1 billion. Obviously, when taken together with its lackluster top-line growth rate during Q2 2021 this doesn't paint a particularly impressive picture of PayPal's performance.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第二季度，PayPal 的自由现金流同比下降 33%，至 10 亿美元。显然，当与 2021 年第二季度黯淡的营收增长率相结合时，这并不能描绘出 PayPal 特别令人印象深刻的业绩图景。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, consistent with its previous two quarters, PayPal once more reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance for $5 billion in 2021. Demonstrating that aside from the impact of eBay's migration, PayPal's free cash flow performance in 2021 remains unchanged from the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，与前两个季度一致，PayPal再次重申了2021年50亿美元的自由现金流指引。这表明，除了易贝迁移的影响之外，PayPal 2021年的自由现金流表现与年初相比保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Expensively Valued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值-估值不高</b></blockquote></p><p> High-quality stocks rarely come cheaply towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>在漫长的牛市即将结束时，优质股票很少会变得便宜。</blockquote></p><p> In a market where many companies are highly unprofitable and with middle-of-the-road revenue growth rates, PayPal is not only growing by 20% CAGR this year, but it's expected to grow at an even faster rate<i>next year</i>, while also generating ample free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>在许多公司高度无利可图且收入增长率处于中等水平的市场中，PayPal今年不仅复合年增长率达到 20%，而且预计还会以更快的速度增长<i>明年</i>，同时还产生充足的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> There aren't too many companies out there as entrenched as PayPal in fintech priced at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>像PayPal这样在金融科技领域根深蒂固、定价为 74 倍自由现金流的公司并不多。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface, this may appear expensive, but readers should keep in mind that this is free cash flows and not a sales multiple.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，这可能看起来很昂贵，但读者应该记住，这是自由现金流，而不是销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, for context, on a sales multiple, PayPal trades at 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，就销售倍数而言，PayPal的交易价格是销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's Q3 guidance took many investors by surprise, particularly given that this blue-chip household name rarely misfires. However, its underlying performance remains very strong.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 的第三季度指引让许多投资者感到惊讶，特别是考虑到这个蓝筹股家喻户晓的名字很少失败。然而，其潜在表现仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Given its strong free cash flow generation, and approximately mid-20s% CAGR expected next year, I believe that this stock is cheaply valued at just 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其强劲的自由现金流产生，以及预计明年约 20% 的复合年增长率，我相信这只股票的估值很便宜，仅为销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, since there are so many high-growth small-cap stocks that are now heavily into correction territory, I believe that there are even better investment opportunities elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于现在有如此多的高增长小盘股正在大量进入回调区域，我相信其他地方还有更好的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Looking Beyond eBay's Impact<blockquote>PayPal：超越 eBay 的影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Looking Beyond eBay's Impact<blockquote>PayPal：超越 eBay 的影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.</li> <li>PayPal contends that asides from eBay Marketplace's migration off PayPal, its underlying business is performing very strongly.</li> <li>PayPal is priced at 13x sales. This is very attractively priced for such an entrenched high-quality payment solution platform.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4532465490efbc958deb5f9d66d7669\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal 2021 年第三季度指引令投资者大吃一惊。</li><li>PayPal认为，除了 eBay Marketplace 迁出PayPal之外，其基础业务表现非常强劲。</li><li>PayPal的定价是销售额的13倍。对于这样一个根深蒂固的高质量支付解决方案平台来说，这是一个非常有吸引力的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's (PYPL) guidance for Q3 is pointing towards a marked deceleration where its revenues are expected to grow approximately 14% y/y. However, this is predominantly due to eBay (EBAY) Marketplace exiting PayPal's platform.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal (PYPL) 对第三季度的指引显示，其收入预计同比增长约 14%，将出现明显放缓。然而，这主要是由于 eBay (eBay) 市场退出 PayPal 平台。</blockquote></p><p> For context, this will be a meaningful headwind of approximately 850 basis points during Q3, and it will slowly reduce its impact during Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就背景而言，这将是第三季度约 850 个基点的有意义的逆风，并将在 2021 年第四季度慢慢减少其影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, putting aside eBay's impact, PayPal's core operations remain strong and PayPal is still expected to grow by 20% this year,<i>including</i>e Bay's headwind.</p><p><blockquote>不过，撇开eBay的影响不谈，PayPal的核心业务依然强劲，PayPal今年仍有望增长20%，<i>包括</i>e湾的逆风。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal is expected to bring in $5 billion of free cash flow this year, putting the stock trading at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，PayPal预计今年将带来50亿美元的自由现金流，使股票交易达到自由现金流的74倍。</blockquote></p><p> In short, investors have no reason to be dissatisfied with this quarter's performance. PayPal is an attractive investment opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>总之，投资者没有理由对本季度的表现感到不满。PayPal是一个有吸引力的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Sentiment Going Into Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者情绪影响盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd702cef3486de22aca83e1d46bb8d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, contrary to countless other fast-growing names, PayPal had actually had a very strong run-up in its shares since May.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，与无数其他快速增长的公司不同，PayPal的股价实际上自 5 月份以来一直非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, given this backdrop where investors had such high expectations from PayPal, any mishap during the quarter was obviously going to take the share price down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在投资者对PayPal抱有如此高期望的背景下，本季度的任何意外显然都会导致股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's get into its results.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看它的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Slow Down, With a But</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率放缓，但</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55f4abe65fb78fef6b67c43fc1c4d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The big takeaway is that PayPal is reaffirming its guidance for 20% y/y in 2021. Having said that, the elephant in the room is that Q2 2021 saw just 19% y/y revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>最大的收获是，PayPal重申了 2021 年同比增长 20% 的指引。话虽如此，房间里的大象是 2021 年第二季度的收入同比增长率仅为 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Given that during Q1 its revenue had just grown by its fastest rate in PayPal's history, investors were minimally expecting PayPal to continue that momentum and shine this quarter. After all, this is a company that has a long history of delivering positive results and easily beating its guidance.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于第一季度其收入刚刚以 PayPal 历史上最快的速度增长，投资者至少预计PayPal将在本季度延续这一势头并大放异彩。毕竟，这是一家有着长期交付积极成果并轻松超越其指导的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <i>At the core of the after-hours reaction, we have to keep in mind that this is a company that buy-and-hold investors perceived as ''safe'' and one that ''shouldn't'' have negative surprises.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>盘后反应的核心是，我们必须记住，这是一家买入并持有投资者认为“安全”的公司，并且“不应该”出现负面意外。</i></blockquote></p><p> Hence, this rare weak quarter is more likely than not to be met by not only heavy selling in the coming days, and I fully suspect that the media will all over this stock reporting how PayPal has lost its flow.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这个罕见的疲软季度很可能不仅会在未来几天遭遇大量抛售，而且我完全怀疑媒体会到处报道PayPal如何失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal's CEO Dan Schulman points out that eBay was a headwind for PayPal during the quarter as eBay Marketplaces stopped being served by PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席执行官丹·舒尔曼 (Dan Schulman) 指出，由于PayPal不再为 eBay 市场提供服务，eBay 在本季度对PayPal来说是一个阻力。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal declares that eBay Marketplaces accounted for roughly 8% revenue growth rate headwind, which is particularly noticeable given the strong performance in the same period a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal宣称 eBay Marketplaces 的收入增长率阻力约为 8%，考虑到去年同期的强劲表现，这一点尤其引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36be5e188e36aeb4bca359735c818fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is what PayPal's CFO John Rainey said during the call:</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席财务官 John Rainey 在看涨期权上表示：</blockquote></p><p> <i>So last year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 22%, and in that number, there was a benefit of 5 percentage points of growth from eBay. So 22% revenue growth for 5 percentage points of benefit from eBay. This year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 19% and that number included 800 or 8 percentage points of headwind related to eBay's business.</i> Looking ahead, PayPal highlighted during the call that by year-end, eBay's total payment volume (''TPV'') will account for just 2.5% of PayPal TPV by year-end.</p><p><blockquote><i>因此，去年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 22%，其中 eBay 带来了 5 个百分点的增长。因此，22% 的收入增长从 eBay 中受益 5 个百分点。今年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 19%，其中包括与 eBay 业务相关的 800 个百分点或 8 个百分点的阻力。</i>展望未来，PayPal在看涨期权中强调，到年底，eBay的总支付量（“冠捷”）将仅占PayPal冠捷的2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, during Q2 2021, putting aside eBay's headwind, PayPal's revenue would have been up 32% y/y. Given that eBay will have migrated to its own payment solutions by Q4 2021, investors won't have to be patient too long until PayPal is once again reporting strong revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，在 2021 年第二季度，撇开 eBay 的阻力不谈，PayPal 的收入将同比增长 32%。鉴于 eBay 将于 2021 年第四季度迁移到自己的支付解决方案，投资者不必耐心太久，直到PayPal再次报告强劲的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, asides from eBay there's a lot to be attracted to here.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，除了易贝，这里还有很多吸引人的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Diverse Product Portfolio in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年PayPal的多元化产品组合</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest launch during the quarter was Zettle in the U.S. This is a digital point-of-sale card payment solution. Although it arrives into a very crowded space arguably a little late in the game.</p><p><blockquote>本季度最大的发布是美国的 Zettle。这是一个数字销售点卡支付解决方案。虽然它到达了一个非常拥挤的空间，可以说在游戏中有点晚。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, Venmo was also a latecomer to the digital wallet space and that hasn't stopped Venmo's performance in Q2 2021 growing its total payment volume by 58% y/y to $58 billion. This translated into Venmo increasing its revenues by 70% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Venmo 也是数字钱包领域的后来者，但这并没有阻止 Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现，其总支付量同比增长 58%，达到 580 亿美元。这意味着 Venmo 的收入同比增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p> Venmo's performance during Q2 2021 was driven by robust crypto trading on the platform.</p><p><blockquote>Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现是由该平台上强劲的加密货币交易推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Also, PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later is resonating with consumers and merchants with momentum accelerating sequentially from Q1 2021 to Q2 by 50%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal 的“先买后付”正在引起消费者和商家的共鸣，从 2021 年第一季度到第二季度，势头连续加速 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Altogether, despite investing in different products launches, PayPal still generates strong free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，尽管投资于不同的产品发布，PayPal仍然产生了强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal is a Free Cash Flow Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal是一台自由现金流机器</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0733d4c917e606b41fdf9a31c91d13\" tg-width=\"322\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> During Q2 2021, PayPal's free cash flow was down 33% y/y to $1 billion. Obviously, when taken together with its lackluster top-line growth rate during Q2 2021 this doesn't paint a particularly impressive picture of PayPal's performance.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第二季度，PayPal 的自由现金流同比下降 33%，至 10 亿美元。显然，当与 2021 年第二季度黯淡的营收增长率相结合时，这并不能描绘出 PayPal 特别令人印象深刻的业绩图景。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, consistent with its previous two quarters, PayPal once more reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance for $5 billion in 2021. Demonstrating that aside from the impact of eBay's migration, PayPal's free cash flow performance in 2021 remains unchanged from the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，与前两个季度一致，PayPal再次重申了2021年50亿美元的自由现金流指引。这表明，除了易贝迁移的影响之外，PayPal 2021年的自由现金流表现与年初相比保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Expensively Valued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值-估值不高</b></blockquote></p><p> High-quality stocks rarely come cheaply towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>在漫长的牛市即将结束时，优质股票很少会变得便宜。</blockquote></p><p> In a market where many companies are highly unprofitable and with middle-of-the-road revenue growth rates, PayPal is not only growing by 20% CAGR this year, but it's expected to grow at an even faster rate<i>next year</i>, while also generating ample free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>在许多公司高度无利可图且收入增长率处于中等水平的市场中，PayPal今年不仅复合年增长率达到 20%，而且预计还会以更快的速度增长<i>明年</i>，同时还产生充足的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> There aren't too many companies out there as entrenched as PayPal in fintech priced at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>像PayPal这样在金融科技领域根深蒂固、定价为 74 倍自由现金流的公司并不多。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface, this may appear expensive, but readers should keep in mind that this is free cash flows and not a sales multiple.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，这可能看起来很昂贵，但读者应该记住，这是自由现金流，而不是销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, for context, on a sales multiple, PayPal trades at 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，就销售倍数而言，PayPal的交易价格是销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's Q3 guidance took many investors by surprise, particularly given that this blue-chip household name rarely misfires. However, its underlying performance remains very strong.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 的第三季度指引让许多投资者感到惊讶，特别是考虑到这个蓝筹股家喻户晓的名字很少失败。然而，其潜在表现仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Given its strong free cash flow generation, and approximately mid-20s% CAGR expected next year, I believe that this stock is cheaply valued at just 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其强劲的自由现金流产生，以及预计明年约 20% 的复合年增长率，我相信这只股票的估值很便宜，仅为销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, since there are so many high-growth small-cap stocks that are now heavily into correction territory, I believe that there are even better investment opportunities elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于现在有如此多的高增长小盘股正在大量进入回调区域，我相信其他地方还有更好的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442390-paypal-q2-2021-earnings-results-looking-beyond-ebay-impact\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442390-paypal-q2-2021-earnings-results-looking-beyond-ebay-impact","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198546715","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.\nPayPal contends that asides from eBay Marketplace's migration off PayPal, its underlying business is performing very strongly.\nPayPal is priced at 13x sales. This is very attractively priced for such an entrenched high-quality payment solution platform.\n\nJasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal's (PYPL) guidance for Q3 is pointing towards a marked deceleration where its revenues are expected to grow approximately 14% y/y. However, this is predominantly due to eBay (EBAY) Marketplace exiting PayPal's platform.\nFor context, this will be a meaningful headwind of approximately 850 basis points during Q3, and it will slowly reduce its impact during Q4 2021.\nHowever, putting aside eBay's impact, PayPal's core operations remain strong and PayPal is still expected to grow by 20% this year,includinge Bay's headwind.\nWhat's more, PayPal is expected to bring in $5 billion of free cash flow this year, putting the stock trading at 74x free cash flow.\nIn short, investors have no reason to be dissatisfied with this quarter's performance. PayPal is an attractive investment opportunity.\nInvestor Sentiment Going Into Earnings\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see above, contrary to countless other fast-growing names, PayPal had actually had a very strong run-up in its shares since May.\nHence, given this backdrop where investors had such high expectations from PayPal, any mishap during the quarter was obviously going to take the share price down.\nNow, let's get into its results.\nRevenue Growth Rates Slow Down, With a But\n\nThe big takeaway is that PayPal is reaffirming its guidance for 20% y/y in 2021. Having said that, the elephant in the room is that Q2 2021 saw just 19% y/y revenue growth rates.\nGiven that during Q1 its revenue had just grown by its fastest rate in PayPal's history, investors were minimally expecting PayPal to continue that momentum and shine this quarter. After all, this is a company that has a long history of delivering positive results and easily beating its guidance.\nAt the core of the after-hours reaction, we have to keep in mind that this is a company that buy-and-hold investors perceived as ''safe'' and one that ''shouldn't'' have negative surprises.\nHence, this rare weak quarter is more likely than not to be met by not only heavy selling in the coming days, and I fully suspect that the media will all over this stock reporting how PayPal has lost its flow.\nPayPal's CEO Dan Schulman points out that eBay was a headwind for PayPal during the quarter as eBay Marketplaces stopped being served by PayPal.\nWhat's more, PayPal declares that eBay Marketplaces accounted for roughly 8% revenue growth rate headwind, which is particularly noticeable given the strong performance in the same period a year ago.\n\nThis is what PayPal's CFO John Rainey said during the call:\n\nSo last year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 22%, and in that number, there was a benefit of 5 percentage points of growth from eBay. So 22% revenue growth for 5 percentage points of benefit from eBay. This year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 19% and that number included 800 or 8 percentage points of headwind related to eBay's business.\n\nLooking ahead, PayPal highlighted during the call that by year-end, eBay's total payment volume (''TPV'') will account for just 2.5% of PayPal TPV by year-end.\nWhat's more, during Q2 2021, putting aside eBay's headwind, PayPal's revenue would have been up 32% y/y. Given that eBay will have migrated to its own payment solutions by Q4 2021, investors won't have to be patient too long until PayPal is once again reporting strong revenue growth rates.\nIndeed, asides from eBay there's a lot to be attracted to here.\nPayPal's Diverse Product Portfolio in 2021\nThe biggest launch during the quarter was Zettle in the U.S. This is a digital point-of-sale card payment solution. Although it arrives into a very crowded space arguably a little late in the game.\nHaving said that, Venmo was also a latecomer to the digital wallet space and that hasn't stopped Venmo's performance in Q2 2021 growing its total payment volume by 58% y/y to $58 billion. This translated into Venmo increasing its revenues by 70% y/y.\nVenmo's performance during Q2 2021 was driven by robust crypto trading on the platform.\nAlso, PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later is resonating with consumers and merchants with momentum accelerating sequentially from Q1 2021 to Q2 by 50%.\nAltogether, despite investing in different products launches, PayPal still generates strong free cash flows.\nPayPal is a Free Cash Flow Machine\n\nDuring Q2 2021, PayPal's free cash flow was down 33% y/y to $1 billion. Obviously, when taken together with its lackluster top-line growth rate during Q2 2021 this doesn't paint a particularly impressive picture of PayPal's performance.\nOn the other hand, consistent with its previous two quarters, PayPal once more reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance for $5 billion in 2021. Demonstrating that aside from the impact of eBay's migration, PayPal's free cash flow performance in 2021 remains unchanged from the start of the year.\nValuation - Not Expensively Valued\nHigh-quality stocks rarely come cheaply towards the end of a very long bull market.\nIn a market where many companies are highly unprofitable and with middle-of-the-road revenue growth rates, PayPal is not only growing by 20% CAGR this year, but it's expected to grow at an even faster ratenext year, while also generating ample free cash flow.\nThere aren't too many companies out there as entrenched as PayPal in fintech priced at 74x free cash flow.\nOn the surface, this may appear expensive, but readers should keep in mind that this is free cash flows and not a sales multiple.\nMeanwhile, for context, on a sales multiple, PayPal trades at 13x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nPayPal's Q3 guidance took many investors by surprise, particularly given that this blue-chip household name rarely misfires. However, its underlying performance remains very strong.\nGiven its strong free cash flow generation, and approximately mid-20s% CAGR expected next year, I believe that this stock is cheaply valued at just 13x sales.\nHowever, since there are so many high-growth small-cap stocks that are now heavily into correction territory, I believe that there are even better investment opportunities elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":808137484,"gmtCreate":1627564257148,"gmtModify":1633763775817,"author":{"id":"4089813371711840","authorId":"4089813371711840","name":"axiny","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089813371711840","idStr":"4089813371711840"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ohhh","listText":"ohhh","text":"ohhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808137484","repostId":"2155990717","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808137323,"gmtCreate":1627564220062,"gmtModify":1633763776406,"author":{"id":"4089813371711840","authorId":"4089813371711840","name":"axiny","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089813371711840","idStr":"4089813371711840"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"oo","listText":"oo","text":"oo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808137323","repostId":"1198546715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198546715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627562631,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198546715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 20:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Looking Beyond eBay's Impact<blockquote>PayPal：超越 eBay 的影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198546715","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.\nPayPal contends that asides from eBay","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.</li> <li>PayPal contends that asides from eBay Marketplace's migration off PayPal, its underlying business is performing very strongly.</li> <li>PayPal is priced at 13x sales. This is very attractively priced for such an entrenched high-quality payment solution platform.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4532465490efbc958deb5f9d66d7669\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal 2021 年第三季度指引令投资者大吃一惊。</li><li>PayPal认为，除了 eBay Marketplace 迁出PayPal之外，其基础业务表现非常强劲。</li><li>PayPal的定价是销售额的13倍。对于这样一个根深蒂固的高质量支付解决方案平台来说，这是一个非常有吸引力的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's (PYPL) guidance for Q3 is pointing towards a marked deceleration where its revenues are expected to grow approximately 14% y/y. However, this is predominantly due to eBay (EBAY) Marketplace exiting PayPal's platform.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal (PYPL) 对第三季度的指引显示，其收入预计同比增长约 14%，将出现明显放缓。然而，这主要是由于 eBay (eBay) 市场退出 PayPal 平台。</blockquote></p><p> For context, this will be a meaningful headwind of approximately 850 basis points during Q3, and it will slowly reduce its impact during Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就背景而言，这将是第三季度约 850 个基点的有意义的逆风，并将在 2021 年第四季度慢慢减少其影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, putting aside eBay's impact, PayPal's core operations remain strong and PayPal is still expected to grow by 20% this year,<i>including</i>e Bay's headwind.</p><p><blockquote>不过，撇开eBay的影响不谈，PayPal的核心业务依然强劲，PayPal今年仍有望增长20%，<i>包括</i>e湾的逆风。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal is expected to bring in $5 billion of free cash flow this year, putting the stock trading at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，PayPal预计今年将带来50亿美元的自由现金流，使股票交易达到自由现金流的74倍。</blockquote></p><p> In short, investors have no reason to be dissatisfied with this quarter's performance. PayPal is an attractive investment opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>总之，投资者没有理由对本季度的表现感到不满。PayPal是一个有吸引力的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Sentiment Going Into Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者情绪影响盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd702cef3486de22aca83e1d46bb8d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, contrary to countless other fast-growing names, PayPal had actually had a very strong run-up in its shares since May.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，与无数其他快速增长的公司不同，PayPal的股价实际上自 5 月份以来一直非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, given this backdrop where investors had such high expectations from PayPal, any mishap during the quarter was obviously going to take the share price down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在投资者对PayPal抱有如此高期望的背景下，本季度的任何意外显然都会导致股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's get into its results.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看它的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Slow Down, With a But</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率放缓，但</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55f4abe65fb78fef6b67c43fc1c4d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The big takeaway is that PayPal is reaffirming its guidance for 20% y/y in 2021. Having said that, the elephant in the room is that Q2 2021 saw just 19% y/y revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>最大的收获是，PayPal重申了 2021 年同比增长 20% 的指引。话虽如此，房间里的大象是 2021 年第二季度的收入同比增长率仅为 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Given that during Q1 its revenue had just grown by its fastest rate in PayPal's history, investors were minimally expecting PayPal to continue that momentum and shine this quarter. After all, this is a company that has a long history of delivering positive results and easily beating its guidance.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于第一季度其收入刚刚以 PayPal 历史上最快的速度增长，投资者至少预计PayPal将在本季度延续这一势头并大放异彩。毕竟，这是一家有着长期交付积极成果并轻松超越其指导的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <i>At the core of the after-hours reaction, we have to keep in mind that this is a company that buy-and-hold investors perceived as ''safe'' and one that ''shouldn't'' have negative surprises.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>盘后反应的核心是，我们必须记住，这是一家买入并持有投资者认为“安全”的公司，并且“不应该”出现负面意外。</i></blockquote></p><p> Hence, this rare weak quarter is more likely than not to be met by not only heavy selling in the coming days, and I fully suspect that the media will all over this stock reporting how PayPal has lost its flow.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这个罕见的疲软季度很可能不仅会在未来几天遭遇大量抛售，而且我完全怀疑媒体会到处报道PayPal如何失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal's CEO Dan Schulman points out that eBay was a headwind for PayPal during the quarter as eBay Marketplaces stopped being served by PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席执行官丹·舒尔曼 (Dan Schulman) 指出，由于PayPal不再为 eBay 市场提供服务，eBay 在本季度对PayPal来说是一个阻力。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal declares that eBay Marketplaces accounted for roughly 8% revenue growth rate headwind, which is particularly noticeable given the strong performance in the same period a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal宣称 eBay Marketplaces 的收入增长率阻力约为 8%，考虑到去年同期的强劲表现，这一点尤其引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36be5e188e36aeb4bca359735c818fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is what PayPal's CFO John Rainey said during the call:</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席财务官 John Rainey 在看涨期权上表示：</blockquote></p><p> <i>So last year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 22%, and in that number, there was a benefit of 5 percentage points of growth from eBay. So 22% revenue growth for 5 percentage points of benefit from eBay. This year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 19% and that number included 800 or 8 percentage points of headwind related to eBay's business.</i> Looking ahead, PayPal highlighted during the call that by year-end, eBay's total payment volume (''TPV'') will account for just 2.5% of PayPal TPV by year-end.</p><p><blockquote><i>因此，去年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 22%，其中 eBay 带来了 5 个百分点的增长。因此，22% 的收入增长从 eBay 中受益 5 个百分点。今年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 19%，其中包括与 eBay 业务相关的 800 个百分点或 8 个百分点的阻力。</i>展望未来，PayPal在看涨期权中强调，到年底，eBay的总支付量（“冠捷”）将仅占PayPal冠捷的2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, during Q2 2021, putting aside eBay's headwind, PayPal's revenue would have been up 32% y/y. Given that eBay will have migrated to its own payment solutions by Q4 2021, investors won't have to be patient too long until PayPal is once again reporting strong revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，在 2021 年第二季度，撇开 eBay 的阻力不谈，PayPal 的收入将同比增长 32%。鉴于 eBay 将于 2021 年第四季度迁移到自己的支付解决方案，投资者不必耐心太久，直到PayPal再次报告强劲的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, asides from eBay there's a lot to be attracted to here.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，除了易贝，这里还有很多吸引人的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Diverse Product Portfolio in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年PayPal的多元化产品组合</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest launch during the quarter was Zettle in the U.S. This is a digital point-of-sale card payment solution. Although it arrives into a very crowded space arguably a little late in the game.</p><p><blockquote>本季度最大的发布是美国的 Zettle。这是一个数字销售点卡支付解决方案。虽然它到达了一个非常拥挤的空间，可以说在游戏中有点晚。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, Venmo was also a latecomer to the digital wallet space and that hasn't stopped Venmo's performance in Q2 2021 growing its total payment volume by 58% y/y to $58 billion. This translated into Venmo increasing its revenues by 70% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Venmo 也是数字钱包领域的后来者，但这并没有阻止 Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现，其总支付量同比增长 58%，达到 580 亿美元。这意味着 Venmo 的收入同比增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p> Venmo's performance during Q2 2021 was driven by robust crypto trading on the platform.</p><p><blockquote>Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现是由该平台上强劲的加密货币交易推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Also, PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later is resonating with consumers and merchants with momentum accelerating sequentially from Q1 2021 to Q2 by 50%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal 的“先买后付”正在引起消费者和商家的共鸣，从 2021 年第一季度到第二季度，势头连续加速 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Altogether, despite investing in different products launches, PayPal still generates strong free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，尽管投资于不同的产品发布，PayPal仍然产生了强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal is a Free Cash Flow Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal是一台自由现金流机器</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0733d4c917e606b41fdf9a31c91d13\" tg-width=\"322\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> During Q2 2021, PayPal's free cash flow was down 33% y/y to $1 billion. Obviously, when taken together with its lackluster top-line growth rate during Q2 2021 this doesn't paint a particularly impressive picture of PayPal's performance.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第二季度，PayPal 的自由现金流同比下降 33%，至 10 亿美元。显然，当与 2021 年第二季度黯淡的营收增长率相结合时，这并不能描绘出 PayPal 特别令人印象深刻的业绩图景。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, consistent with its previous two quarters, PayPal once more reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance for $5 billion in 2021. Demonstrating that aside from the impact of eBay's migration, PayPal's free cash flow performance in 2021 remains unchanged from the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，与前两个季度一致，PayPal再次重申了2021年50亿美元的自由现金流指引。这表明，除了易贝迁移的影响之外，PayPal 2021年的自由现金流表现与年初相比保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Expensively Valued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值-估值不高</b></blockquote></p><p> High-quality stocks rarely come cheaply towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>在漫长的牛市即将结束时，优质股票很少会变得便宜。</blockquote></p><p> In a market where many companies are highly unprofitable and with middle-of-the-road revenue growth rates, PayPal is not only growing by 20% CAGR this year, but it's expected to grow at an even faster rate<i>next year</i>, while also generating ample free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>在许多公司高度无利可图且收入增长率处于中等水平的市场中，PayPal今年不仅复合年增长率达到 20%，而且预计还会以更快的速度增长<i>明年</i>，同时还产生充足的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> There aren't too many companies out there as entrenched as PayPal in fintech priced at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>像PayPal这样在金融科技领域根深蒂固、定价为 74 倍自由现金流的公司并不多。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface, this may appear expensive, but readers should keep in mind that this is free cash flows and not a sales multiple.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，这可能看起来很昂贵，但读者应该记住，这是自由现金流，而不是销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, for context, on a sales multiple, PayPal trades at 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，就销售倍数而言，PayPal的交易价格是销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's Q3 guidance took many investors by surprise, particularly given that this blue-chip household name rarely misfires. However, its underlying performance remains very strong.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 的第三季度指引让许多投资者感到惊讶，特别是考虑到这个蓝筹股家喻户晓的名字很少失败。然而，其潜在表现仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Given its strong free cash flow generation, and approximately mid-20s% CAGR expected next year, I believe that this stock is cheaply valued at just 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其强劲的自由现金流产生，以及预计明年约 20% 的复合年增长率，我相信这只股票的估值很便宜，仅为销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, since there are so many high-growth small-cap stocks that are now heavily into correction territory, I believe that there are even better investment opportunities elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于现在有如此多的高增长小盘股正在大量进入回调区域，我相信其他地方还有更好的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Looking Beyond eBay's Impact<blockquote>PayPal：超越 eBay 的影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Looking Beyond eBay's Impact<blockquote>PayPal：超越 eBay 的影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.</li> <li>PayPal contends that asides from eBay Marketplace's migration off PayPal, its underlying business is performing very strongly.</li> <li>PayPal is priced at 13x sales. This is very attractively priced for such an entrenched high-quality payment solution platform.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4532465490efbc958deb5f9d66d7669\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal 2021 年第三季度指引令投资者大吃一惊。</li><li>PayPal认为，除了 eBay Marketplace 迁出PayPal之外，其基础业务表现非常强劲。</li><li>PayPal的定价是销售额的13倍。对于这样一个根深蒂固的高质量支付解决方案平台来说，这是一个非常有吸引力的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JasonDoiy/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's (PYPL) guidance for Q3 is pointing towards a marked deceleration where its revenues are expected to grow approximately 14% y/y. However, this is predominantly due to eBay (EBAY) Marketplace exiting PayPal's platform.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal (PYPL) 对第三季度的指引显示，其收入预计同比增长约 14%，将出现明显放缓。然而，这主要是由于 eBay (eBay) 市场退出 PayPal 平台。</blockquote></p><p> For context, this will be a meaningful headwind of approximately 850 basis points during Q3, and it will slowly reduce its impact during Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就背景而言，这将是第三季度约 850 个基点的有意义的逆风，并将在 2021 年第四季度慢慢减少其影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, putting aside eBay's impact, PayPal's core operations remain strong and PayPal is still expected to grow by 20% this year,<i>including</i>e Bay's headwind.</p><p><blockquote>不过，撇开eBay的影响不谈，PayPal的核心业务依然强劲，PayPal今年仍有望增长20%，<i>包括</i>e湾的逆风。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal is expected to bring in $5 billion of free cash flow this year, putting the stock trading at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，PayPal预计今年将带来50亿美元的自由现金流，使股票交易达到自由现金流的74倍。</blockquote></p><p> In short, investors have no reason to be dissatisfied with this quarter's performance. PayPal is an attractive investment opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>总之，投资者没有理由对本季度的表现感到不满。PayPal是一个有吸引力的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Sentiment Going Into Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者情绪影响盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd702cef3486de22aca83e1d46bb8d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see above, contrary to countless other fast-growing names, PayPal had actually had a very strong run-up in its shares since May.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上面看到的，与无数其他快速增长的公司不同，PayPal的股价实际上自 5 月份以来一直非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, given this backdrop where investors had such high expectations from PayPal, any mishap during the quarter was obviously going to take the share price down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在投资者对PayPal抱有如此高期望的背景下，本季度的任何意外显然都会导致股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's get into its results.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看它的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Slow Down, With a But</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率放缓，但</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55f4abe65fb78fef6b67c43fc1c4d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The big takeaway is that PayPal is reaffirming its guidance for 20% y/y in 2021. Having said that, the elephant in the room is that Q2 2021 saw just 19% y/y revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>最大的收获是，PayPal重申了 2021 年同比增长 20% 的指引。话虽如此，房间里的大象是 2021 年第二季度的收入同比增长率仅为 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Given that during Q1 its revenue had just grown by its fastest rate in PayPal's history, investors were minimally expecting PayPal to continue that momentum and shine this quarter. After all, this is a company that has a long history of delivering positive results and easily beating its guidance.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于第一季度其收入刚刚以 PayPal 历史上最快的速度增长，投资者至少预计PayPal将在本季度延续这一势头并大放异彩。毕竟，这是一家有着长期交付积极成果并轻松超越其指导的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <i>At the core of the after-hours reaction, we have to keep in mind that this is a company that buy-and-hold investors perceived as ''safe'' and one that ''shouldn't'' have negative surprises.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>盘后反应的核心是，我们必须记住，这是一家买入并持有投资者认为“安全”的公司，并且“不应该”出现负面意外。</i></blockquote></p><p> Hence, this rare weak quarter is more likely than not to be met by not only heavy selling in the coming days, and I fully suspect that the media will all over this stock reporting how PayPal has lost its flow.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这个罕见的疲软季度很可能不仅会在未来几天遭遇大量抛售，而且我完全怀疑媒体会到处报道PayPal如何失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal's CEO Dan Schulman points out that eBay was a headwind for PayPal during the quarter as eBay Marketplaces stopped being served by PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席执行官丹·舒尔曼 (Dan Schulman) 指出，由于PayPal不再为 eBay 市场提供服务，eBay 在本季度对PayPal来说是一个阻力。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, PayPal declares that eBay Marketplaces accounted for roughly 8% revenue growth rate headwind, which is particularly noticeable given the strong performance in the same period a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal宣称 eBay Marketplaces 的收入增长率阻力约为 8%，考虑到去年同期的强劲表现，这一点尤其引人注目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36be5e188e36aeb4bca359735c818fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is what PayPal's CFO John Rainey said during the call:</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 首席财务官 John Rainey 在看涨期权上表示：</blockquote></p><p> <i>So last year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 22%, and in that number, there was a benefit of 5 percentage points of growth from eBay. So 22% revenue growth for 5 percentage points of benefit from eBay. This year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 19% and that number included 800 or 8 percentage points of headwind related to eBay's business.</i> Looking ahead, PayPal highlighted during the call that by year-end, eBay's total payment volume (''TPV'') will account for just 2.5% of PayPal TPV by year-end.</p><p><blockquote><i>因此，去年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 22%，其中 eBay 带来了 5 个百分点的增长。因此，22% 的收入增长从 eBay 中受益 5 个百分点。今年第二季度，我们的收入增长了 19%，其中包括与 eBay 业务相关的 800 个百分点或 8 个百分点的阻力。</i>展望未来，PayPal在看涨期权中强调，到年底，eBay的总支付量（“冠捷”）将仅占PayPal冠捷的2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, during Q2 2021, putting aside eBay's headwind, PayPal's revenue would have been up 32% y/y. Given that eBay will have migrated to its own payment solutions by Q4 2021, investors won't have to be patient too long until PayPal is once again reporting strong revenue growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，在 2021 年第二季度，撇开 eBay 的阻力不谈，PayPal 的收入将同比增长 32%。鉴于 eBay 将于 2021 年第四季度迁移到自己的支付解决方案，投资者不必耐心太久，直到PayPal再次报告强劲的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, asides from eBay there's a lot to be attracted to here.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，除了易贝，这里还有很多吸引人的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Diverse Product Portfolio in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年PayPal的多元化产品组合</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest launch during the quarter was Zettle in the U.S. This is a digital point-of-sale card payment solution. Although it arrives into a very crowded space arguably a little late in the game.</p><p><blockquote>本季度最大的发布是美国的 Zettle。这是一个数字销售点卡支付解决方案。虽然它到达了一个非常拥挤的空间，可以说在游戏中有点晚。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, Venmo was also a latecomer to the digital wallet space and that hasn't stopped Venmo's performance in Q2 2021 growing its total payment volume by 58% y/y to $58 billion. This translated into Venmo increasing its revenues by 70% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Venmo 也是数字钱包领域的后来者，但这并没有阻止 Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现，其总支付量同比增长 58%，达到 580 亿美元。这意味着 Venmo 的收入同比增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p> Venmo's performance during Q2 2021 was driven by robust crypto trading on the platform.</p><p><blockquote>Venmo 在 2021 年第二季度的表现是由该平台上强劲的加密货币交易推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Also, PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later is resonating with consumers and merchants with momentum accelerating sequentially from Q1 2021 to Q2 by 50%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，PayPal 的“先买后付”正在引起消费者和商家的共鸣，从 2021 年第一季度到第二季度，势头连续加速 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Altogether, despite investing in different products launches, PayPal still generates strong free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，尽管投资于不同的产品发布，PayPal仍然产生了强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal is a Free Cash Flow Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal是一台自由现金流机器</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0733d4c917e606b41fdf9a31c91d13\" tg-width=\"322\" tg-height=\"364\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> During Q2 2021, PayPal's free cash flow was down 33% y/y to $1 billion. Obviously, when taken together with its lackluster top-line growth rate during Q2 2021 this doesn't paint a particularly impressive picture of PayPal's performance.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第二季度，PayPal 的自由现金流同比下降 33%，至 10 亿美元。显然，当与 2021 年第二季度黯淡的营收增长率相结合时，这并不能描绘出 PayPal 特别令人印象深刻的业绩图景。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, consistent with its previous two quarters, PayPal once more reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance for $5 billion in 2021. Demonstrating that aside from the impact of eBay's migration, PayPal's free cash flow performance in 2021 remains unchanged from the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，与前两个季度一致，PayPal再次重申了2021年50亿美元的自由现金流指引。这表明，除了易贝迁移的影响之外，PayPal 2021年的自由现金流表现与年初相比保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Expensively Valued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值-估值不高</b></blockquote></p><p> High-quality stocks rarely come cheaply towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>在漫长的牛市即将结束时，优质股票很少会变得便宜。</blockquote></p><p> In a market where many companies are highly unprofitable and with middle-of-the-road revenue growth rates, PayPal is not only growing by 20% CAGR this year, but it's expected to grow at an even faster rate<i>next year</i>, while also generating ample free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>在许多公司高度无利可图且收入增长率处于中等水平的市场中，PayPal今年不仅复合年增长率达到 20%，而且预计还会以更快的速度增长<i>明年</i>，同时还产生充足的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> There aren't too many companies out there as entrenched as PayPal in fintech priced at 74x free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>像PayPal这样在金融科技领域根深蒂固、定价为 74 倍自由现金流的公司并不多。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface, this may appear expensive, but readers should keep in mind that this is free cash flows and not a sales multiple.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，这可能看起来很昂贵，但读者应该记住，这是自由现金流，而不是销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, for context, on a sales multiple, PayPal trades at 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，就销售倍数而言，PayPal的交易价格是销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's Q3 guidance took many investors by surprise, particularly given that this blue-chip household name rarely misfires. However, its underlying performance remains very strong.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal 的第三季度指引让许多投资者感到惊讶，特别是考虑到这个蓝筹股家喻户晓的名字很少失败。然而，其潜在表现仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Given its strong free cash flow generation, and approximately mid-20s% CAGR expected next year, I believe that this stock is cheaply valued at just 13x sales.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其强劲的自由现金流产生，以及预计明年约 20% 的复合年增长率，我相信这只股票的估值很便宜，仅为销售额的 13 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, since there are so many high-growth small-cap stocks that are now heavily into correction territory, I believe that there are even better investment opportunities elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于现在有如此多的高增长小盘股正在大量进入回调区域，我相信其他地方还有更好的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442390-paypal-q2-2021-earnings-results-looking-beyond-ebay-impact\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442390-paypal-q2-2021-earnings-results-looking-beyond-ebay-impact","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198546715","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal's Q3 2021 guidance took investors by surprise.\nPayPal contends that asides from eBay Marketplace's migration off PayPal, its underlying business is performing very strongly.\nPayPal is priced at 13x sales. This is very attractively priced for such an entrenched high-quality payment solution platform.\n\nJasonDoiy/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal's (PYPL) guidance for Q3 is pointing towards a marked deceleration where its revenues are expected to grow approximately 14% y/y. However, this is predominantly due to eBay (EBAY) Marketplace exiting PayPal's platform.\nFor context, this will be a meaningful headwind of approximately 850 basis points during Q3, and it will slowly reduce its impact during Q4 2021.\nHowever, putting aside eBay's impact, PayPal's core operations remain strong and PayPal is still expected to grow by 20% this year,includinge Bay's headwind.\nWhat's more, PayPal is expected to bring in $5 billion of free cash flow this year, putting the stock trading at 74x free cash flow.\nIn short, investors have no reason to be dissatisfied with this quarter's performance. PayPal is an attractive investment opportunity.\nInvestor Sentiment Going Into Earnings\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see above, contrary to countless other fast-growing names, PayPal had actually had a very strong run-up in its shares since May.\nHence, given this backdrop where investors had such high expectations from PayPal, any mishap during the quarter was obviously going to take the share price down.\nNow, let's get into its results.\nRevenue Growth Rates Slow Down, With a But\n\nThe big takeaway is that PayPal is reaffirming its guidance for 20% y/y in 2021. Having said that, the elephant in the room is that Q2 2021 saw just 19% y/y revenue growth rates.\nGiven that during Q1 its revenue had just grown by its fastest rate in PayPal's history, investors were minimally expecting PayPal to continue that momentum and shine this quarter. After all, this is a company that has a long history of delivering positive results and easily beating its guidance.\nAt the core of the after-hours reaction, we have to keep in mind that this is a company that buy-and-hold investors perceived as ''safe'' and one that ''shouldn't'' have negative surprises.\nHence, this rare weak quarter is more likely than not to be met by not only heavy selling in the coming days, and I fully suspect that the media will all over this stock reporting how PayPal has lost its flow.\nPayPal's CEO Dan Schulman points out that eBay was a headwind for PayPal during the quarter as eBay Marketplaces stopped being served by PayPal.\nWhat's more, PayPal declares that eBay Marketplaces accounted for roughly 8% revenue growth rate headwind, which is particularly noticeable given the strong performance in the same period a year ago.\n\nThis is what PayPal's CFO John Rainey said during the call:\n\nSo last year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 22%, and in that number, there was a benefit of 5 percentage points of growth from eBay. So 22% revenue growth for 5 percentage points of benefit from eBay. This year in the second quarter, we grew revenue 19% and that number included 800 or 8 percentage points of headwind related to eBay's business.\n\nLooking ahead, PayPal highlighted during the call that by year-end, eBay's total payment volume (''TPV'') will account for just 2.5% of PayPal TPV by year-end.\nWhat's more, during Q2 2021, putting aside eBay's headwind, PayPal's revenue would have been up 32% y/y. Given that eBay will have migrated to its own payment solutions by Q4 2021, investors won't have to be patient too long until PayPal is once again reporting strong revenue growth rates.\nIndeed, asides from eBay there's a lot to be attracted to here.\nPayPal's Diverse Product Portfolio in 2021\nThe biggest launch during the quarter was Zettle in the U.S. This is a digital point-of-sale card payment solution. Although it arrives into a very crowded space arguably a little late in the game.\nHaving said that, Venmo was also a latecomer to the digital wallet space and that hasn't stopped Venmo's performance in Q2 2021 growing its total payment volume by 58% y/y to $58 billion. This translated into Venmo increasing its revenues by 70% y/y.\nVenmo's performance during Q2 2021 was driven by robust crypto trading on the platform.\nAlso, PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later is resonating with consumers and merchants with momentum accelerating sequentially from Q1 2021 to Q2 by 50%.\nAltogether, despite investing in different products launches, PayPal still generates strong free cash flows.\nPayPal is a Free Cash Flow Machine\n\nDuring Q2 2021, PayPal's free cash flow was down 33% y/y to $1 billion. Obviously, when taken together with its lackluster top-line growth rate during Q2 2021 this doesn't paint a particularly impressive picture of PayPal's performance.\nOn the other hand, consistent with its previous two quarters, PayPal once more reaffirmed its free cash flow guidance for $5 billion in 2021. Demonstrating that aside from the impact of eBay's migration, PayPal's free cash flow performance in 2021 remains unchanged from the start of the year.\nValuation - Not Expensively Valued\nHigh-quality stocks rarely come cheaply towards the end of a very long bull market.\nIn a market where many companies are highly unprofitable and with middle-of-the-road revenue growth rates, PayPal is not only growing by 20% CAGR this year, but it's expected to grow at an even faster ratenext year, while also generating ample free cash flow.\nThere aren't too many companies out there as entrenched as PayPal in fintech priced at 74x free cash flow.\nOn the surface, this may appear expensive, but readers should keep in mind that this is free cash flows and not a sales multiple.\nMeanwhile, for context, on a sales multiple, PayPal trades at 13x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nPayPal's Q3 guidance took many investors by surprise, particularly given that this blue-chip household name rarely misfires. However, its underlying performance remains very strong.\nGiven its strong free cash flow generation, and approximately mid-20s% CAGR expected next year, I believe that this stock is cheaply valued at just 13x sales.\nHowever, since there are so many high-growth small-cap stocks that are now heavily into correction territory, I believe that there are even better investment opportunities elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
