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vj_ql
2021-08-17
good one
@Ivan_甘灿荣:当心原油的黑天鹅事件，黄金博反弹还早了点
vj_ql
2021-07-30
yes//
@vj_ql
:Wow
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-25
Yeah
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-23
Wow
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-21
Like
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-19
ya//
@vj_ql
:Yes
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-18
Yes
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-18
Yes
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-15
ya//
@vj_ql
:predictable
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-15
predictable
抱歉，原内容已删除
vj_ql
2021-07-13
ok
@美股研究社:盘前全知道|奥本海默称小摩将打响开门红，华尔街建议增持FAAMG
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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one","listText":"good one","text":"good one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839258288","repostId":"830559635","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":830559635,"gmtCreate":1629083345023,"gmtModify":1744960723335,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312224764596","idStr":"3534312224764596"},"themes":[],"title":"当心原油的黑天鹅事件，黄金博反弹还早了点","htmlText":"黄金真的见底还是暴力反弹？原油短线暴动？ 本周末是老虎7周年线下open day活动的广深站，有感谢老虎的邀请来到会场与各位虎友们分享我的经验。作为现场福利，我把我的投资框架和体系给大家进行了展示和总结，感谢各位聆听的虎友。 线上的朋友也不着急，以后有机会再慢慢展示哈。 回归至最近的行情 一、原油 周四晚的直播给大家强调过，原油突发了一个重大潜在风险，就是美国白宫喊话OPEC+加快增产来满足市场，尽管很快被辟谣且被OPEC怼回去，但空穴来风并非无因。 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原油的定价主要是三大产油国决定，美国、俄罗斯和OPEC。而自疫情减产以来，美国并未参与且没表态，而这次突然表态就是个信号。这类消息出来后，无论台面上怎么说，私下的会晤不会少（就是条件如何谈的问题），而以往，OPEC的沙特还是听美国的，因此一旦谈妥，加速增产不是难事（以当前的高油价，其它国家更不会反对，本来在目前油价仍期望减产的国家也只有沙特）。目前是没有消息，一旦消息确认绝对是黑天鹅事件。 而根据历史价格类比，如果此时出现类似的黑天鹅事件，很可能单周会出现10%+的下跌，而后反弹（短期需求仍存在，有便宜货也会贸易商抄底）。因此当前油价最大风险/机会就在于美国引导下的OPEC增产，总之8月后做多油价要极为小心，做空的话也就那种黑天鹅机会值得捕捉一下。所以此前建议的卖出原油周期权策略要少做了，毕竟单周跌幅很可能超预期。 二、黄金 黄金是真见底还是暴力反弹？ 相信是很多朋友的疑惑，我倾向于是暴力反弹，持续性存疑。当价格金价跌穿1750时，说明此前很多的预期就需要修正，最少美联储缩表对金价的影响不是闹着玩的。而美联储收紧银根和缩表加息是美元贬值中期的特征（现场听课的虎友应该明白我说啥），而贬值中期的过程当中，金价往往是通道式下跌，最好的情况，也只是横盘调整。 因此，如果我们认为美联储会不加息，甚至负利率的话，那黄金价格仍能上涨。但如果","listText":"黄金真的见底还是暴力反弹？原油短线暴动？ 本周末是老虎7周年线下open day活动的广深站，有感谢老虎的邀请来到会场与各位虎友们分享我的经验。作为现场福利，我把我的投资框架和体系给大家进行了展示和总结，感谢各位聆听的虎友。 线上的朋友也不着急，以后有机会再慢慢展示哈。 回归至最近的行情 一、原油 周四晚的直播给大家强调过，原油突发了一个重大潜在风险，就是美国白宫喊话OPEC+加快增产来满足市场，尽管很快被辟谣且被OPEC怼回去，但空穴来风并非无因。 原油的定价主要是三大产油国决定，美国、俄罗斯和OPEC。而自疫情减产以来，美国并未参与且没表态，而这次突然表态就是个信号。这类消息出来后，无论台面上怎么说，私下的会晤不会少（就是条件如何谈的问题），而以往，OPEC的沙特还是听美国的，因此一旦谈妥，加速增产不是难事（以当前的高油价，其它国家更不会反对，本来在目前油价仍期望减产的国家也只有沙特）。目前是没有消息，一旦消息确认绝对是黑天鹅事件。 而根据历史价格类比，如果此时出现类似的黑天鹅事件，很可能单周会出现10%+的下跌，而后反弹（短期需求仍存在，有便宜货也会贸易商抄底）。因此当前油价最大风险/机会就在于美国引导下的OPEC增产，总之8月后做多油价要极为小心，做空的话也就那种黑天鹅机会值得捕捉一下。所以此前建议的卖出原油周期权策略要少做了，毕竟单周跌幅很可能超预期。 二、黄金 黄金是真见底还是暴力反弹？ 相信是很多朋友的疑惑，我倾向于是暴力反弹，持续性存疑。当价格金价跌穿1750时，说明此前很多的预期就需要修正，最少美联储缩表对金价的影响不是闹着玩的。而美联储收紧银根和缩表加息是美元贬值中期的特征（现场听课的虎友应该明白我说啥），而贬值中期的过程当中，金价往往是通道式下跌，最好的情况，也只是横盘调整。 因此，如果我们认为美联储会不加息，甚至负利率的话，那黄金价格仍能上涨。但如果","text":"黄金真的见底还是暴力反弹？原油短线暴动？ 本周末是老虎7周年线下open day活动的广深站，有感谢老虎的邀请来到会场与各位虎友们分享我的经验。作为现场福利，我把我的投资框架和体系给大家进行了展示和总结，感谢各位聆听的虎友。 线上的朋友也不着急，以后有机会再慢慢展示哈。 回归至最近的行情 一、原油 周四晚的直播给大家强调过，原油突发了一个重大潜在风险，就是美国白宫喊话OPEC+加快增产来满足市场，尽管很快被辟谣且被OPEC怼回去，但空穴来风并非无因。 原油的定价主要是三大产油国决定，美国、俄罗斯和OPEC。而自疫情减产以来，美国并未参与且没表态，而这次突然表态就是个信号。这类消息出来后，无论台面上怎么说，私下的会晤不会少（就是条件如何谈的问题），而以往，OPEC的沙特还是听美国的，因此一旦谈妥，加速增产不是难事（以当前的高油价，其它国家更不会反对，本来在目前油价仍期望减产的国家也只有沙特）。目前是没有消息，一旦消息确认绝对是黑天鹅事件。 而根据历史价格类比，如果此时出现类似的黑天鹅事件，很可能单周会出现10%+的下跌，而后反弹（短期需求仍存在，有便宜货也会贸易商抄底）。因此当前油价最大风险/机会就在于美国引导下的OPEC增产，总之8月后做多油价要极为小心，做空的话也就那种黑天鹅机会值得捕捉一下。所以此前建议的卖出原油周期权策略要少做了，毕竟单周跌幅很可能超预期。 二、黄金 黄金是真见底还是暴力反弹？ 相信是很多朋友的疑惑，我倾向于是暴力反弹，持续性存疑。当价格金价跌穿1750时，说明此前很多的预期就需要修正，最少美联储缩表对金价的影响不是闹着玩的。而美联储收紧银根和缩表加息是美元贬值中期的特征（现场听课的虎友应该明白我说啥），而贬值中期的过程当中，金价往往是通道式下跌，最好的情况，也只是横盘调整。 因此，如果我们认为美联储会不加息，甚至负利率的话，那黄金价格仍能上涨。但如果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b600cd8b6d04ce2ec144236f1532410","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60833ad10cdfda8a0640829a2b93d86","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ed4a93df24a6aad7cbbdf5fb7cab948","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830559635","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806364188,"gmtCreate":1627633732744,"gmtModify":1633757579428,"author":{"id":"4089069910449480","authorId":"4089069910449480","name":"vj_ql","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089069910449480","idStr":"4089069910449480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes//<a 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46%。华尔街：未来5年科技行业仍十分强劲，建议增持FAAMG据财联社报道，当地时间周一（12日），华尔街知名投资管理机构伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）发布报告称，预计未来5年科技行业的增长仍将非常强劲，与历史相比，科技公司内部的拥挤程度仍然很低，建议投资者增持FAAMG股票。伯恩斯坦分析师Toni Sacconaghi周一在报告称，今年上半年，资金从科技股转向价值股的趋势更为明显。但总的来说，伯恩斯坦仍看好整个科技板块。2、热点全知道美联储三号人物：尚未到缩减QE时机，担心「平均通胀目标制」导致快速加息没根据据富途报道，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，担忧美联储「平均通胀目标制」最后将导致快速加息是没有根据的。美联储购买国债和抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）都有助于降低住房成本，他同时表示，现在缩减QE时机未到","listText":"1、机构怎么看美股摩根士丹利：科技股估值令人想起互联网泡沫时期据报道，摩根士丹利在研报中写道，大型科技和互联网股的估值处于「极端」水平，市场修正10%至15%的可能性正在上升。低利率和经济增长的坚实背景推动科技行业的股价/销售比「达到2000年互联网泡沫高峰时的水平」。「问题是科技行业的盈利能力和利润状况脆弱」。大摩补充说，投入成本上升、美元走软、竞争加剧、税率上升、监管加强和客户阻力给该行业带来了「前所未有的挑战」。Oppenheimer分析师：小摩将打响财报季开门红据CNBC报道，未来几天，高盛、摩根大通、花旗集团和美国银行将率先发布财报。Oppenheimer技术分析主管Wald表示，投资者在投资银行股时应该慎重。在这些银行股中，Wald更看好摩根大通(JPM.US)，不看好富国银行(WFC.US)。自去年11月以来，摩根大通一直表现不佳，但富国银行却相反，Wald认为摩根大通即将崛起。摩根大通在2021年上涨了24%，优于银行股市场的总体表现。相比之下，富国银行上涨了 46%。华尔街：未来5年科技行业仍十分强劲，建议增持FAAMG据财联社报道，当地时间周一（12日），华尔街知名投资管理机构伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）发布报告称，预计未来5年科技行业的增长仍将非常强劲，与历史相比，科技公司内部的拥挤程度仍然很低，建议投资者增持FAAMG股票。伯恩斯坦分析师Toni 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