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庄志刚
2024-02-02
$签字银行(SBNY)$
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庄志刚
2024-04-10
$签字银行(SBNY)$
依然范特西
庄志刚
2023-12-29
$签字银行(SBNY)$
。。
庄志刚
2024-01-12
$签字银行(SBNY)$
持续更新
庄志刚
2024-01-11
$签字银行(SBNY)$
可以
庄志刚
2024-01-08
$签字银行(SBNY)$
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庄志刚
2022-11-02
$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$
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庄志刚
2023-12-21
$签字银行(SBNY)$
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庄志刚
2022-12-28
有什么好糟心的[笑哭] [得意]
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2023-12-23
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20:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球楼市泡沫一个一个爆了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133652867","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当时，英国政府宣布对夫妻购房进行税收减免，导致楼市需求激增，房价飙升。包括瑞典在内，北欧目前已成为全球房地产市场崩塌最严重的地区之一。20个大城市中的每一个城市的价格涨幅都在减速。安大略省基奇纳市和滑铁卢市的基准价格在六个月内下跌了16%。韩国楼市大幅降温韩国楼市出现萎缩迹象，全国房价连续九个月下跌，上半年公寓成交量较去年同期下降50.6%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国房价跌速已创下十三年来最快水平，英国房价或将跌回十年前水平，瑞典房价跌速创十年来最快水平，澳大利亚房价跌速创三十年最快水平...</blockquote><p>在全球央行的加息潮下，全球楼市击鼓传花的游戏进入尾声，令人闻风丧胆的大崩盘或将重现。</p><p>欧洲方面，英国房价出现了15个月来的首次下跌；瑞典房价跌速创下了至少十年来的最快水平。</p><p>美洲方面，美国房价跌速已创下十三年来的最快水平，加拿大第一大城市多伦多房价已降至去年10月以来的最低水平。</p><p>而在亚洲市场，韩国正面临一场“迫在眉睫的房地产衰退”，严重程度将大于2009-2014年金融危机之后的颓势。</p><p><b>英国房价或将跌回十年前水平</b></p><p>疫情封锁期间，英国政府为救助楼市宣布临时削减购房税，在市场引发了购房狂热，将平均房价推高了31000英镑，这一水平是减税金额的两倍。</p><p>随着经济前景越发黯淡，加上英国前首相特拉斯的减税计划重挫市场信心，投资者对楼市也越来越悲观。房地产门户网站Zoopla表示，自所谓的迷你预算以来，楼市需求已下降20%，至疫情开始以来的最低水平。</p><p>房价也支撑不住了。据央视新闻报道，11月1日，全英房屋抵押贷款协会发布的数据显示，英国2022年10月平均房价环比下降0.9%，这是15个月以来的首次下跌，也是2020年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。</p><p>投资银行Panmure Gordon的首席经济学家Simon French预测，英国房价将未来三年将下跌14%，<b>使实际价值跌回2013年的水平</b>。彭博经济学家预计明年房价将下跌约10%。</p><p>这不禁让人想到三十多年前的大崩盘。当时，英国政府宣布对夫妻购房进行税收减免，导致楼市需求激增，房价飙升。到1980年代末，房价终于不堪重负发生雪崩，之后花了近9年时间才恢复到之前的高点。</p><p><b>瑞典房价跌速创十年来最快水平</b></p><p>瑞典的情况与英国类似，疫情刺激计划带来了房地产的短暂繁荣。但是，在瑞典央行开始加息后，情况发生了变化。</p><p>最新数据显示，<b>瑞典房地产市场正在以2013年以来的最快速度崩塌。</b></p><p>瑞典国有银行SBAB周三表示，房地产上市网站Booli的交易数据显示截至上月，房价较峰值下跌了19%，公寓价格下跌了13%。它还预计房价将较3月份的高点下跌约20%，降幅略高于北欧银行和瑞典央行的预测。</p><p>10月份房价环比下降了4%，经季节调整后跌幅为2.3%。相比之下，9月份的名义跌幅为2.6%，这是当时的历史最高水平。数据显示，<b>瑞典各地的房价都在下跌，</b>其中瑞典第二大城市哥德堡的独栋房屋跌幅最大，自峰值以来已下跌19%。</p><p>包括瑞典在内，北欧目前已成为全球房地产市场崩塌最严重的地区之一。</p><p><b>美国楼市持续减速</b></p><p>美国上周公布的房价数据显示，美国8月S&P/CS20座大城市季调后房价指数环比跌1.32%，创2009年3月来最大环比跌幅。<b>20个大城市中的每一个城市的价格涨幅都在减速。</b></p><p>标普道琼斯指数董事总经理Craig Lazzara在一份新闻稿中表示，“一个月前我们注意到的美国房价的强力减速，在8月得以延续。20个大城市中的每一个城市的价格涨幅都在减速。这些数据清楚地表明，房价增长率在2022年春季达到顶峰，此后一直在下降。”</p><p>由于美联储激进加息，美国按揭贷款利率飙升，近几个月的房地产数据大多非常低迷，需求遭遇严重打击。今年初，<b>30年期按揭住房贷款的平均利率约为3%，而当前已经飙涨至7%</b>。</p><p>与此同时，由于卖家不愿意放弃此前享有的低利率，上市的房屋数量也在减少，从供给角度说，这对房价构成一定支撑。不过分析认为，鉴于宏观经济环境更具挑战性，美国房价很可能会继续减速。</p><p><b>加拿大第一大城市房价跌回一年前水平</b></p><p>积累了30多年泡沫的加拿大楼市也崩了。</p><p>加拿大第一大城市多伦多基准房价自今年以来的高点下降了17%左右，至去年10月的水平。安大略省基奇纳市和滑铁卢市的基准价格在六个月内下跌了16%。</p><p>随着加拿大央行的进一步加息，居民将更难负担房贷，预计未来房价还将继续下跌。</p><p><b>韩国楼市大幅降温</b></p><p>韩国楼市出现萎缩迹象，全国房价连续九个月下跌，上半年公寓成交量较去年同期下降50.6%。</p><p>韩国央行自去年8月起加息是造成楼市降温的重要原因之一，出口低迷、大城市人口“逆流”和高通胀下购买力的下滑也导致需求锐减。这给央行制造了“降通胀”还是“保增长”的难题。</p><p>野村经济研究员本次悲观预测，韩国全国房价将从峰值到谷底骤降约10%，衡量整体住房市场状况的价格基准——<b>首尔公寓价格将暴跌18%。</b></p><p>这会比2009-2014年金融危机之后韩国房地产市场降温的幅度更大。楼市急剧降温将打击私人消费，在全球半导体行业疲软和出口不振的同时，推动韩国经济陷入更深的衰退。</p><p><b>澳大利亚房价跌速创三十年最快水平</b></p><p>大型房地产数据分析公司CoreLogic发布的最新数据显示，澳大利亚8月房屋价值下跌1.6%，创下自1983年以来全澳的最大单月跌幅。</p><p>数据显示，自今年1月以来，悉尼的房价下跌了7.4%。此外，布里斯班、堪培拉、墨尔本等主要城市的房价均有所下滑。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球楼市泡沫一个一个爆了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-02 20:31 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673937><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国房价跌速已创下十三年来最快水平，英国房价或将跌回十年前水平，瑞典房价跌速创十年来最快水平，澳大利亚房价跌速创三十年最快水平...在全球央行的加息潮下，全球楼市击鼓传花的游戏进入尾声，令人闻风丧胆的大崩盘或将重现。欧洲方面，英国房价出现了15个月来的首次下跌；瑞典房价跌速创下了至少十年来的最快水平。美洲方面，美国房价跌速已创下十三年来的最快水平，加拿大第一大城市多伦多房价已降至去年10月以来的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673937\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8cc1e7567ad2c1dcb9f4d64c14835f8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673937","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133652867","content_text":"美国房价跌速已创下十三年来最快水平，英国房价或将跌回十年前水平，瑞典房价跌速创十年来最快水平，澳大利亚房价跌速创三十年最快水平...在全球央行的加息潮下，全球楼市击鼓传花的游戏进入尾声，令人闻风丧胆的大崩盘或将重现。欧洲方面，英国房价出现了15个月来的首次下跌；瑞典房价跌速创下了至少十年来的最快水平。美洲方面，美国房价跌速已创下十三年来的最快水平，加拿大第一大城市多伦多房价已降至去年10月以来的最低水平。而在亚洲市场，韩国正面临一场“迫在眉睫的房地产衰退”，严重程度将大于2009-2014年金融危机之后的颓势。英国房价或将跌回十年前水平疫情封锁期间，英国政府为救助楼市宣布临时削减购房税，在市场引发了购房狂热，将平均房价推高了31000英镑，这一水平是减税金额的两倍。随着经济前景越发黯淡，加上英国前首相特拉斯的减税计划重挫市场信心，投资者对楼市也越来越悲观。房地产门户网站Zoopla表示，自所谓的迷你预算以来，楼市需求已下降20%，至疫情开始以来的最低水平。房价也支撑不住了。据央视新闻报道，11月1日，全英房屋抵押贷款协会发布的数据显示，英国2022年10月平均房价环比下降0.9%，这是15个月以来的首次下跌，也是2020年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。投资银行Panmure Gordon的首席经济学家Simon French预测，英国房价将未来三年将下跌14%，使实际价值跌回2013年的水平。彭博经济学家预计明年房价将下跌约10%。这不禁让人想到三十多年前的大崩盘。当时，英国政府宣布对夫妻购房进行税收减免，导致楼市需求激增，房价飙升。到1980年代末，房价终于不堪重负发生雪崩，之后花了近9年时间才恢复到之前的高点。瑞典房价跌速创十年来最快水平瑞典的情况与英国类似，疫情刺激计划带来了房地产的短暂繁荣。但是，在瑞典央行开始加息后，情况发生了变化。最新数据显示，瑞典房地产市场正在以2013年以来的最快速度崩塌。瑞典国有银行SBAB周三表示，房地产上市网站Booli的交易数据显示截至上月，房价较峰值下跌了19%，公寓价格下跌了13%。它还预计房价将较3月份的高点下跌约20%，降幅略高于北欧银行和瑞典央行的预测。10月份房价环比下降了4%，经季节调整后跌幅为2.3%。相比之下，9月份的名义跌幅为2.6%，这是当时的历史最高水平。数据显示，瑞典各地的房价都在下跌，其中瑞典第二大城市哥德堡的独栋房屋跌幅最大，自峰值以来已下跌19%。包括瑞典在内，北欧目前已成为全球房地产市场崩塌最严重的地区之一。美国楼市持续减速美国上周公布的房价数据显示，美国8月S&P/CS20座大城市季调后房价指数环比跌1.32%，创2009年3月来最大环比跌幅。20个大城市中的每一个城市的价格涨幅都在减速。标普道琼斯指数董事总经理Craig Lazzara在一份新闻稿中表示，“一个月前我们注意到的美国房价的强力减速，在8月得以延续。20个大城市中的每一个城市的价格涨幅都在减速。这些数据清楚地表明，房价增长率在2022年春季达到顶峰，此后一直在下降。”由于美联储激进加息，美国按揭贷款利率飙升，近几个月的房地产数据大多非常低迷，需求遭遇严重打击。今年初，30年期按揭住房贷款的平均利率约为3%，而当前已经飙涨至7%。与此同时，由于卖家不愿意放弃此前享有的低利率，上市的房屋数量也在减少，从供给角度说，这对房价构成一定支撑。不过分析认为，鉴于宏观经济环境更具挑战性，美国房价很可能会继续减速。加拿大第一大城市房价跌回一年前水平积累了30多年泡沫的加拿大楼市也崩了。加拿大第一大城市多伦多基准房价自今年以来的高点下降了17%左右，至去年10月的水平。安大略省基奇纳市和滑铁卢市的基准价格在六个月内下跌了16%。随着加拿大央行的进一步加息，居民将更难负担房贷，预计未来房价还将继续下跌。韩国楼市大幅降温韩国楼市出现萎缩迹象，全国房价连续九个月下跌，上半年公寓成交量较去年同期下降50.6%。韩国央行自去年8月起加息是造成楼市降温的重要原因之一，出口低迷、大城市人口“逆流”和高通胀下购买力的下滑也导致需求锐减。这给央行制造了“降通胀”还是“保增长”的难题。野村经济研究员本次悲观预测，韩国全国房价将从峰值到谷底骤降约10%，衡量整体住房市场状况的价格基准——首尔公寓价格将暴跌18%。这会比2009-2014年金融危机之后韩国房地产市场降温的幅度更大。楼市急剧降温将打击私人消费，在全球半导体行业疲软和出口不振的同时，推动韩国经济陷入更深的衰退。澳大利亚房价跌速创三十年最快水平大型房地产数据分析公司CoreLogic发布的最新数据显示，澳大利亚8月房屋价值下跌1.6%，创下自1983年以来全澳的最大单月跌幅。数据显示，自今年1月以来，悉尼的房价下跌了7.4%。此外，布里斯班、堪培拉、墨尔本等主要城市的房价均有所下滑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665539553,"gmtCreate":1667367096272,"gmtModify":1667367118292,"author":{"id":"4088946125416260","authorId":"4088946125416260","name":"庄志刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6cd42ace22c778d7a2609f039f07f27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088946125416260","authorIdStr":"4088946125416260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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12:55","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"蔚来回应整车工厂生产暂停：消息属实，会影响生产和交付进度","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174960072","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"蔚来位于合肥的两座工厂相继停产。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近日有媒体报道：受防疫要求，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>位于合肥的两座工厂相继停产，目前旗下车型的交付进度普遍延缓。</p><p>据财经网消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>汽车相关负责人回应此事表示：生产受疫情影响确实比较严重，消息属实，会影响生产和交付进度。另有接近蔚来的人士表示，蔚来在合肥经开区的汽车产业园Neo Park近期同样处于封闭管控，F2工厂的整车生产线也暂停运转。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来回应整车工厂生产暂停：消息属实，会影响生产和交付进度</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来回应整车工厂生产暂停：消息属实，会影响生产和交付进度\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-02 12:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>近日有媒体报道：受防疫要求，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>位于合肥的两座工厂相继停产，目前旗下车型的交付进度普遍延缓。</p><p>据财经网消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>汽车相关负责人回应此事表示：生产受疫情影响确实比较严重，消息属实，会影响生产和交付进度。另有接近蔚来的人士表示，蔚来在合肥经开区的汽车产业园Neo Park近期同样处于封闭管控，F2工厂的整车生产线也暂停运转。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608c0ca7f544a93854339353ff5e9ae1","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174960072","content_text":"近日有媒体报道：受防疫要求，蔚来位于合肥的两座工厂相继停产，目前旗下车型的交付进度普遍延缓。据财经网消息，蔚来汽车相关负责人回应此事表示：生产受疫情影响确实比较严重，消息属实，会影响生产和交付进度。另有接近蔚来的人士表示，蔚来在合肥经开区的汽车产业园Neo Park近期同样处于封闭管控，F2工厂的整车生产线也暂停运转。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666917392,"gmtCreate":1665371473616,"gmtModify":1665371907080,"author":{"id":"4088946125416260","authorId":"4088946125416260","name":"庄志刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6cd42ace22c778d7a2609f039f07f27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088946125416260","authorIdStr":"4088946125416260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太反转了","listText":"太反转了","text":"太反转了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666917392","repostId":"1137925561","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137925561","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665369382,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137925561?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-10 10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股虽弱，但难阻A股反转","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137925561","media":"格隆汇","summary":"展望4季度，拐点临近，当下市场已进入较好布局期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：樊继拓 等</p><p><b>相比1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高，认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市，但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年，美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。目前A股的经济、投资者仓位、估值、汇率环境非常类似2019年8月初的低点，后续可能会再次出现V型反转，建议投资者积极做多。配置上我们认为，市场的风格正在往价值转变，这一转变至少是季度的，甚至有很大的概率演变为年度的风格转变。</b></p><p><b>（1）国内风险可控，投资者担心美股的风险。</b>相比较1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高。国内的经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。美国经济所面临的利率大幅上行、通胀波动大、经济衰退等风险，很多都是十年甚至几十年一遇的，这已经成为影响A股反转的最后障碍。从美股的调整幅度来看，2010到2021年，除了疫情期间，其他历次经济小级别衰退（可以理解为软着陆），美股调整幅度均不超过20%。而年初以来，标普500最大回撤幅度高达25%，基本上已经意味着资本市场认为，美国经济很难软着陆。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e8553e0c68b5dcdfeeb34a8a7c82fe\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在的关键是，对A股的影响会有多大？2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市。2000-2002年，标普500最大跌幅-49%，上证综指最大跌幅-41%；2007-2008年，标普500最大跌幅-57%，上证综指最大跌幅-72%，这次甚至A股的跌幅更大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee501ed7b9b59111257b74af011c9dd1\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>（2）但这一次中美股市所处的估值位置完全不同，美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。</b>之所以2000-2002、2007-2008年，A股比美股调整更剧烈，背后很重要的原因是2000年底和2007年底，A股本身处在估值泡沫化的顶点，但这一次A股股市是处在历史很低的位置。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c243c96cd4d66eecf3d90e806ce0c19\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>更低的估值意味着，虽然美股调整对A股的负面影响还在，但已经非常小了。从2009-2021年美国历次小级别熊市对A股影响幅度，已经能看到类似的结论了。2011、2015、2018和2020年，美国经历过4次小级别熊市，前两次恰好是A股估值处在高位，后两次A股估值处在低位，后两次对A股的影响非常小。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea755fed81faf5026bb18a9563d2981a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>（3）美国经济会影响出口，但这是滞后指标。</b>从基本面的角度，投资者担心如果海外衰退，可能会导致出口下滑，从而压制国内的经济。我们认为，这一影响肯定是存在的。但由于2000年以来，中国经济的历次周期都是早于欧美的，所以出口大多是经济的滞后指标。经济下滑的时候，出口滞后下滑，经济企稳的时候，出口滞后企稳。股市的企稳主要取决于国内经济的韧性，随着稳增长的推进，房地产政策正在不断宽松，信贷社融的改善虽然有所反复，但大方向上，依然是在改善的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2a3e90e802fc588da40abd8d6472d6a\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f4fdc811b0f338929362726c2b5829a\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>（4）策略观点：可能会再次V型反转。</b>7月以后，经济预期再次回落，导致上证50等指数最先开始走弱，8月下旬开始，由于疫情、美股调整、风格转变等影响，指数再次走弱。我们认为指数层面的调整已经接近尾声，但风格转变可能才刚刚开始。10月开始，在稳增长等因素的驱动下，指数有可能止跌再次V型反转。整体上来看，2022年7月-2023年中，指数将会是宽幅震荡。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8113bfff648a82888401a8a93e6240\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb729e7b7ecfe937485a1ff55097d2d\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>行业配置建议：全面增配价值股。</b>8月开始，我们不断提示“提前开始风格转换”，部分投资者认为长期产业逻辑、当期景气度比估值更重要，犹豫不决的投资者依然很多。需要警惕的是，即使是2016年白酒牛市和2019年半导体牛市，在风格转变初期的时候,风格变化也是领先业绩的。当下的风格转变至少是季度的，甚至有很大的概率发展为年度风格变化。<b>（1）成长股的季度性反弹已经结束，建议配置上转向价值股。</b>由于市场年度的风格是拉锯期，所以价值成长会伴随指数的涨跌出现快速的变化，4-8月成长的反弹类似2015年Q4和2019年Q1，季度涨幅过后可能会休整一个季度。如果明年初经济改善或成长业绩出现不好的变化，则时间可能更久。三季报期间可能会有成长股小的喘息窗口，时间和级别会比4-8月小很多。<b>（2）可以在半年内超配金融地产。</b>银行地产的超额收益大多出现在经济下降后期到经济回升早期，在经济确定改善之前，反而更容易产生超额收益。非银估值位置更好，但近期正面催化剂较少，启动时间可能比银行地产略晚，但依然建议超配。<b>（3）消费的逻辑演绎还不充分。</b>疫情后投资者开始逐渐预期经济恢复，这一恢复的过程虽然受到房地产销售的波折，但大方向上还能持续。建议优先关注疫后产能格局优化的酒店、航空，后续等待稳增长效果，逐渐增配和经济相关度高的家电等。<b>（4）周期股长期逻辑完美，短期正在承受美国经济可能会衰退的影响。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00271d7cc42cca1b7993dd3b602f975c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股虽弱，但难阻A股反转</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 10:36 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：樊继拓 等相比1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高，认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市，但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年，美股风险可能只是个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555509","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1137925561","content_text":"作者：樊继拓 等相比1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高，认为海外风险甚至可能会影响A股反转。国内经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市，但这一次A股估值远低于2000年和2007年，美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。目前A股的经济、投资者仓位、估值、汇率环境非常类似2019年8月初的低点，后续可能会再次出现V型反转，建议投资者积极做多。配置上我们认为，市场的风格正在往价值转变，这一转变至少是季度的，甚至有很大的概率演变为年度的风格转变。（1）国内风险可控，投资者担心美股的风险。相比较1-4月的调整，8月底以来，投资者对海外风险的关注度更高。国内的经济风险（疫情、房地产下行）虽然依然存在，但是下行的速度慢很多，而且存在稳增长、房地产政策宽松等对冲性利好。美国经济所面临的利率大幅上行、通胀波动大、经济衰退等风险，很多都是十年甚至几十年一遇的，这已经成为影响A股反转的最后障碍。从美股的调整幅度来看，2010到2021年，除了疫情期间，其他历次经济小级别衰退（可以理解为软着陆），美股调整幅度均不超过20%。而年初以来，标普500最大回撤幅度高达25%，基本上已经意味着资本市场认为，美国经济很难软着陆。现在的关键是，对A股的影响会有多大？2000-2002年和2007-2008年，伴随着美国经济较大级别的衰退和美股的大熊市，A股也是大级别熊市。2000-2002年，标普500最大跌幅-49%，上证综指最大跌幅-41%；2007-2008年，标普500最大跌幅-57%，上证综指最大跌幅-72%，这次甚至A股的跌幅更大。（2）但这一次中美股市所处的估值位置完全不同，美股风险可能只是个纸老虎。之所以2000-2002、2007-2008年，A股比美股调整更剧烈，背后很重要的原因是2000年底和2007年底，A股本身处在估值泡沫化的顶点，但这一次A股股市是处在历史很低的位置。更低的估值意味着，虽然美股调整对A股的负面影响还在，但已经非常小了。从2009-2021年美国历次小级别熊市对A股影响幅度，已经能看到类似的结论了。2011、2015、2018和2020年，美国经历过4次小级别熊市，前两次恰好是A股估值处在高位，后两次A股估值处在低位，后两次对A股的影响非常小。（3）美国经济会影响出口，但这是滞后指标。从基本面的角度，投资者担心如果海外衰退，可能会导致出口下滑，从而压制国内的经济。我们认为，这一影响肯定是存在的。但由于2000年以来，中国经济的历次周期都是早于欧美的，所以出口大多是经济的滞后指标。经济下滑的时候，出口滞后下滑，经济企稳的时候，出口滞后企稳。股市的企稳主要取决于国内经济的韧性，随着稳增长的推进，房地产政策正在不断宽松，信贷社融的改善虽然有所反复，但大方向上，依然是在改善的。（4）策略观点：可能会再次V型反转。7月以后，经济预期再次回落，导致上证50等指数最先开始走弱，8月下旬开始，由于疫情、美股调整、风格转变等影响，指数再次走弱。我们认为指数层面的调整已经接近尾声，但风格转变可能才刚刚开始。10月开始，在稳增长等因素的驱动下，指数有可能止跌再次V型反转。整体上来看，2022年7月-2023年中，指数将会是宽幅震荡。行业配置建议：全面增配价值股。8月开始，我们不断提示“提前开始风格转换”，部分投资者认为长期产业逻辑、当期景气度比估值更重要，犹豫不决的投资者依然很多。需要警惕的是，即使是2016年白酒牛市和2019年半导体牛市，在风格转变初期的时候,风格变化也是领先业绩的。当下的风格转变至少是季度的，甚至有很大的概率发展为年度风格变化。（1）成长股的季度性反弹已经结束，建议配置上转向价值股。由于市场年度的风格是拉锯期，所以价值成长会伴随指数的涨跌出现快速的变化，4-8月成长的反弹类似2015年Q4和2019年Q1，季度涨幅过后可能会休整一个季度。如果明年初经济改善或成长业绩出现不好的变化，则时间可能更久。三季报期间可能会有成长股小的喘息窗口，时间和级别会比4-8月小很多。（2）可以在半年内超配金融地产。银行地产的超额收益大多出现在经济下降后期到经济回升早期，在经济确定改善之前，反而更容易产生超额收益。非银估值位置更好，但近期正面催化剂较少，启动时间可能比银行地产略晚，但依然建议超配。（3）消费的逻辑演绎还不充分。疫情后投资者开始逐渐预期经济恢复，这一恢复的过程虽然受到房地产销售的波折，但大方向上还能持续。建议优先关注疫后产能格局优化的酒店、航空，后续等待稳增长效果，逐渐增配和经济相关度高的家电等。（4）周期股长期逻辑完美，短期正在承受美国经济可能会衰退的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800570867,"gmtCreate":1627309999359,"gmtModify":1627309999359,"author":{"id":"4088946125416260","authorId":"4088946125416260","name":"庄志刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6cd42ace22c778d7a2609f039f07f27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088946125416260","authorIdStr":"4088946125416260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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