+关注
修牙的云哥
暂无个人介绍
IP属地:河南
10
关注
0
粉丝
2
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
修牙的云哥
2022-12-01
今晚1830 明晚1930?
抱歉,原内容已删除
修牙的云哥
2022-06-23
$2年美债2209(ZT2209)$
有懂这个的么? 目前还能拿到多少?
修牙的云哥
2022-06-23
给做空找了个 恰当的理由。
美联储为何不敢救美股?
修牙的云哥
2022-04-01
能源期货是? 原油天然气 哪列么?
修牙的云哥
2022-02-15
迷你铜需要多少保证金能开?
$迷你铜主连 2203(QCmain)$
修牙的云哥
2022-02-14
$迷你铜2203(QC2203)$
实盘保证金是多少?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":4088078943940700,"uuid":"4088078943940700","gmtCreate":1624975880991,"gmtModify":1644233576700,"name":"修牙的云哥","pinyin":"xydygxiuyadeyunge","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":10,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":2,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.24","exceedPercentage":"93.82%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.31%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.24","exceedPercentage":"93.97%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"河南","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":620481337,"gmtCreate":1669901680229,"gmtModify":1669901681895,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今晚1830 明晚1930?","listText":"今晚1830 明晚1930?","text":"今晚1830 明晚1930?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620481337","repostId":"1140468149","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683396665,"gmtCreate":1655989268463,"gmtModify":1704863801587,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZT2209\">$2年美债2209(ZT2209)$</a>有懂这个的么? 目前还能拿到多少?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZT2209\">$2年美债2209(ZT2209)$</a>有懂这个的么? 目前还能拿到多少?","text":"$2年美债2209(ZT2209)$有懂这个的么? 目前还能拿到多少?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4840cdf10dcb64a34868c1f54ac7422c","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683396665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683982878,"gmtCreate":1655957645296,"gmtModify":1704863682228,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"给做空找了个 恰当的理由。","listText":"给做空找了个 恰当的理由。","text":"给做空找了个 恰当的理由。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683982878","repostId":"1122450899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122450899","pubTimestamp":1655908485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122450899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储为何不敢救美股?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122450899","media":"见闻VIP会员","summary":"股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨,令美国劳动参与率持续降低,降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值,令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场,或财务自由,或压力减轻提前退休。</p><p>目前美股暴跌,虽令美股居民资产缩水,但也有好处——"帮助"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势,帮助改善劳动力供给短缺;而如果维护美股,则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的原因之一。</p><p><b>美股一直涨也是有副作用的?</b></p><p>在6月份美国CPI数据创40年新高,加息预期升温后,美股再度大幅跳水,截至6月17日,标普500、道指、纳指年内跌幅分别达到22.90%、17.75%和30.98%。</p><p>纳斯达克自本轮高点最大回撤幅度达到35%,已经超过了2020年新冠疫情时期的最大回撤。而且,与彼时不同,美联储已不可能再"大放水"救市了,美股的下行周期似乎仍未结束。</p><p>见闻VIP此前提到,由于美国家庭资产与养老金深度"绑定",美股暴跌令美国家庭财富缩水。根据美联储数据显示,一季度房地产等资产价格上涨,但公司股票带来的权益类资产缩水较为严重。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2128b9ff440a2cd6f75fe3cba8f8f2\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>图:美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化(来源:美联储)</span></p><p>考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶,2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。</p><p>此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定,美联储有"看跌期权",不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏,美股上涨的副作用已经显现,美联储放弃"看跌期权"也另有深意。</p><p><b>美股涨太多,都没人愿意干活了?</b></p><p>根据美联储数据显示,美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金,而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6fff708501e31bfde5fcbf666ef1ed\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而美国的养老金与美股"深度绑定",养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。</p><p>美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市,为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来,当养老金赚的"太多了",这可能让更多人,尤其是中产阶级摸到了"财务自由"门槛、或者说"养老无忧"。</p><p>而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看,20多年来,在"科技互联网"高速发展的红利之下,美股涨幅巨大,尤其以纳斯达克为首,20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ae51f632b488b5e3ae2fefd15f0b22\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>需要注意的是,劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口(包括就业和在找工作的失业人数)相对适龄劳动人口(16-64岁人口)的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿,受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。</p><p>可以看出,<b>由于财富增值效应显著,近20年来,尤其是08年金融危机后,全球"大放水"导致美股加速上涨,劳动参与率也快速下滑,意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。</b></p><p>这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面,加速了美国薪资的增长,为通胀进一步上升"添砖加瓦"。</p><p>另外,从长期数据来看,这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿,也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右,降至疫情前2%左右水平,但失业率低点却更低了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8b6cf636e99116ca7a0ff2f039e030\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期,这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏,从而更易于涨薪,进而形成"薪资-物价"螺旋式上升循环。</p><p><b>给美股降温,也是在</b>"<b>帮助</b>"<b>劳动力加速返岗</b></p><p>由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作,在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下,美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益,可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。</p><p>从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例(1-劳动参与率)来看,除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外,2018年及2022年的美股下跌,都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be719aaba590412cc9c8f6b0b1b4071\" tg-width=\"1110\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这很可能说明,股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。</p><p><b>因此,本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强,甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来"帮助"劳动力加速返岗,以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。</b></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1646046088746","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储为何不敢救美股?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储为何不敢救美股?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-22 22:34 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg><strong>见闻VIP会员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨,令美国劳动参与率持续降低,降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值,令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场,或财务自由,或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌,虽令美股居民资产缩水,但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势,帮助改善劳动力供给短缺;而如果维护美股,则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122450899","content_text":"长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨,令美国劳动参与率持续降低,降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值,令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场,或财务自由,或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌,虽令美股居民资产缩水,但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势,帮助改善劳动力供给短缺;而如果维护美股,则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的原因之一。美股一直涨也是有副作用的?在6月份美国CPI数据创40年新高,加息预期升温后,美股再度大幅跳水,截至6月17日,标普500、道指、纳指年内跌幅分别达到22.90%、17.75%和30.98%。纳斯达克自本轮高点最大回撤幅度达到35%,已经超过了2020年新冠疫情时期的最大回撤。而且,与彼时不同,美联储已不可能再\"大放水\"救市了,美股的下行周期似乎仍未结束。见闻VIP此前提到,由于美国家庭资产与养老金深度\"绑定\",美股暴跌令美国家庭财富缩水。根据美联储数据显示,一季度房地产等资产价格上涨,但公司股票带来的权益类资产缩水较为严重。图:美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化(来源:美联储)考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶,2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定,美联储有\"看跌期权\",不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏,美股上涨的副作用已经显现,美联储放弃\"看跌期权\"也另有深意。美股涨太多,都没人愿意干活了?根据美联储数据显示,美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金,而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。而美国的养老金与美股\"深度绑定\",养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市,为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来,当养老金赚的\"太多了\",这可能让更多人,尤其是中产阶级摸到了\"财务自由\"门槛、或者说\"养老无忧\"。而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看,20多年来,在\"科技互联网\"高速发展的红利之下,美股涨幅巨大,尤其以纳斯达克为首,20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。需要注意的是,劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口(包括就业和在找工作的失业人数)相对适龄劳动人口(16-64岁人口)的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿,受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。可以看出,由于财富增值效应显著,近20年来,尤其是08年金融危机后,全球\"大放水\"导致美股加速上涨,劳动参与率也快速下滑,意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面,加速了美国薪资的增长,为通胀进一步上升\"添砖加瓦\"。另外,从长期数据来看,这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿,也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右,降至疫情前2%左右水平,但失业率低点却更低了。在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期,这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏,从而更易于涨薪,进而形成\"薪资-物价\"螺旋式上升循环。给美股降温,也是在\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作,在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下,美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益,可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例(1-劳动参与率)来看,除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外,2018年及2022年的美股下跌,都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。这很可能说明,股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。因此,本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强,甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗,以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610733168,"gmtCreate":1648776417957,"gmtModify":1648776417957,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能源期货是? 原油天然气 哪列么?","listText":"能源期货是? 原油天然气 哪列么?","text":"能源期货是? 原油天然气 哪列么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610733168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631442609,"gmtCreate":1644908929042,"gmtModify":1644908929042,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"迷你铜需要多少保证金能开?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QCmain\">$迷你铜主连 2203(QCmain)$ </a>","listText":"迷你铜需要多少保证金能开?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QCmain\">$迷你铜主连 2203(QCmain)$ </a>","text":"迷你铜需要多少保证金能开?$迷你铜主连 2203(QCmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631442609","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3539976188026875","authorId":"3539976188026875","name":"哈哈哦哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf977d1a014b3766e0a2d679e4d914d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","text":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","html":"优惠时段1650美刀一手"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631287221,"gmtCreate":1644794540025,"gmtModify":1644794540025,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QC2203\">$迷你铜2203(QC2203)$ </a> 实盘保证金是多少?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QC2203\">$迷你铜2203(QC2203)$ </a> 实盘保证金是多少?","text":"$迷你铜2203(QC2203)$ 实盘保证金是多少?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631287221","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3539976188026875","authorId":"3539976188026875","name":"哈哈哦哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf977d1a014b3766e0a2d679e4d914d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","text":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","html":"优惠时段1650美刀一手"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":631442609,"gmtCreate":1644908929042,"gmtModify":1644908929042,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"迷你铜需要多少保证金能开?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QCmain\">$迷你铜主连 2203(QCmain)$ </a>","listText":"迷你铜需要多少保证金能开?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QCmain\">$迷你铜主连 2203(QCmain)$ </a>","text":"迷你铜需要多少保证金能开?$迷你铜主连 2203(QCmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631442609","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3539976188026875","authorId":"3539976188026875","name":"哈哈哦哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf977d1a014b3766e0a2d679e4d914d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","text":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","html":"优惠时段1650美刀一手"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631287221,"gmtCreate":1644794540025,"gmtModify":1644794540025,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QC2203\">$迷你铜2203(QC2203)$ </a> 实盘保证金是多少?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QC2203\">$迷你铜2203(QC2203)$ </a> 实盘保证金是多少?","text":"$迷你铜2203(QC2203)$ 实盘保证金是多少?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631287221","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3539976188026875","authorId":"3539976188026875","name":"哈哈哦哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf977d1a014b3766e0a2d679e4d914d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","text":"优惠时段1650美刀一手","html":"优惠时段1650美刀一手"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620481337,"gmtCreate":1669901680229,"gmtModify":1669901681895,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今晚1830 明晚1930?","listText":"今晚1830 明晚1930?","text":"今晚1830 明晚1930?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620481337","repostId":"1140468149","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140468149","pubTimestamp":1669901443,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140468149?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-01 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国上周初请失业金人数回落至22.5万,续请失业金人数升至2月以来新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140468149","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,美国截至11月26日当周初请失业金人数为22.5万,低于市场预期的23.5万,前值为24万。此外,美国截至11月19日当周续请失业金人数为160.8万,为2月以来新高,高","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,美国截至11月26日当周初请失业金人数为22.5万,低于市场预期的23.5万,前值为24万。此外,美国截至11月19日当周续请失业金人数为160.8万,为2月以来新高,高于预期的157.3万,前值为155.1万;美国截至11月26日当周初请失业金人数四周均值为22.88万,前值为22.68万。</p><p>机构指出,上周初请失业金人数下降,而续请失业金人数上升至2月份以来的最高水平,这表明在逐渐降温的劳动力市场中,失去工作的美国人更难找到新工作。经济学家最近几周一直在更密切地关注续请失业金人数,因为这是人们在失业后找到工作有多难的一个指标,也被认为暗示着即将到来的经济衰退。尽管过去两个月该指标一直在上升,但仍接近历史低点。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1638341397728","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国上周初请失业金人数回落至22.5万,续请失业金人数升至2月以来新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国上周初请失业金人数回落至22.5万,续请失业金人数升至2月以来新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-01 21:30 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840958.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,美国截至11月26日当周初请失业金人数为22.5万,低于市场预期的23.5万,前值为24万。此外,美国截至11月19日当周续请失业金人数为160.8万,为2月以来新高,高于预期的157.3万,前值为155.1万;美国截至11月26日当周初请失业金人数四周均值为22.88万,前值为22.68万。机构指出,上周初请失业金人数下降,而续请失业金人数上升至2月份以来的最高水平...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840958.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f866f5d880ac7442ed06621cdcccdbfd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840958.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140468149","content_text":"美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,美国截至11月26日当周初请失业金人数为22.5万,低于市场预期的23.5万,前值为24万。此外,美国截至11月19日当周续请失业金人数为160.8万,为2月以来新高,高于预期的157.3万,前值为155.1万;美国截至11月26日当周初请失业金人数四周均值为22.88万,前值为22.68万。机构指出,上周初请失业金人数下降,而续请失业金人数上升至2月份以来的最高水平,这表明在逐渐降温的劳动力市场中,失去工作的美国人更难找到新工作。经济学家最近几周一直在更密切地关注续请失业金人数,因为这是人们在失业后找到工作有多难的一个指标,也被认为暗示着即将到来的经济衰退。尽管过去两个月该指标一直在上升,但仍接近历史低点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683982878,"gmtCreate":1655957645296,"gmtModify":1704863682228,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"给做空找了个 恰当的理由。","listText":"给做空找了个 恰当的理由。","text":"给做空找了个 恰当的理由。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683982878","repostId":"1122450899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122450899","pubTimestamp":1655908485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122450899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储为何不敢救美股?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122450899","media":"见闻VIP会员","summary":"股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨,令美国劳动参与率持续降低,降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值,令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场,或财务自由,或压力减轻提前退休。</p><p>目前美股暴跌,虽令美股居民资产缩水,但也有好处——"帮助"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势,帮助改善劳动力供给短缺;而如果维护美股,则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的原因之一。</p><p><b>美股一直涨也是有副作用的?</b></p><p>在6月份美国CPI数据创40年新高,加息预期升温后,美股再度大幅跳水,截至6月17日,标普500、道指、纳指年内跌幅分别达到22.90%、17.75%和30.98%。</p><p>纳斯达克自本轮高点最大回撤幅度达到35%,已经超过了2020年新冠疫情时期的最大回撤。而且,与彼时不同,美联储已不可能再"大放水"救市了,美股的下行周期似乎仍未结束。</p><p>见闻VIP此前提到,由于美国家庭资产与养老金深度"绑定",美股暴跌令美国家庭财富缩水。根据美联储数据显示,一季度房地产等资产价格上涨,但公司股票带来的权益类资产缩水较为严重。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2128b9ff440a2cd6f75fe3cba8f8f2\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>图:美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化(来源:美联储)</span></p><p>考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶,2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。</p><p>此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定,美联储有"看跌期权",不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏,美股上涨的副作用已经显现,美联储放弃"看跌期权"也另有深意。</p><p><b>美股涨太多,都没人愿意干活了?</b></p><p>根据美联储数据显示,美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金,而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6fff708501e31bfde5fcbf666ef1ed\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>而美国的养老金与美股"深度绑定",养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。</p><p>美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市,为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来,当养老金赚的"太多了",这可能让更多人,尤其是中产阶级摸到了"财务自由"门槛、或者说"养老无忧"。</p><p>而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看,20多年来,在"科技互联网"高速发展的红利之下,美股涨幅巨大,尤其以纳斯达克为首,20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ae51f632b488b5e3ae2fefd15f0b22\" tg-width=\"1107\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>需要注意的是,劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口(包括就业和在找工作的失业人数)相对适龄劳动人口(16-64岁人口)的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿,受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。</p><p>可以看出,<b>由于财富增值效应显著,近20年来,尤其是08年金融危机后,全球"大放水"导致美股加速上涨,劳动参与率也快速下滑,意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。</b></p><p>这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面,加速了美国薪资的增长,为通胀进一步上升"添砖加瓦"。</p><p>另外,从长期数据来看,这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿,也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右,降至疫情前2%左右水平,但失业率低点却更低了。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8b6cf636e99116ca7a0ff2f039e030\" tg-width=\"1109\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期,这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏,从而更易于涨薪,进而形成"薪资-物价"螺旋式上升循环。</p><p><b>给美股降温,也是在</b>"<b>帮助</b>"<b>劳动力加速返岗</b></p><p>由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作,在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下,美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益,可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。</p><p>从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例(1-劳动参与率)来看,除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外,2018年及2022年的美股下跌,都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be719aaba590412cc9c8f6b0b1b4071\" tg-width=\"1110\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这很可能说明,股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。</p><p><b>因此,本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强,甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来"帮助"劳动力加速返岗,以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。</b></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1646046088746","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储为何不敢救美股?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储为何不敢救美股?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-22 22:34 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg><strong>见闻VIP会员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨,令美国劳动参与率持续降低,降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值,令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场,或财务自由,或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌,虽令美股居民资产缩水,但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势,帮助改善劳动力供给短缺;而如果维护美股,则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122450899","content_text":"长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨,令美国劳动参与率持续降低,降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值,令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场,或财务自由,或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌,虽令美股居民资产缩水,但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势,帮助改善劳动力供给短缺;而如果维护美股,则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的原因之一。美股一直涨也是有副作用的?在6月份美国CPI数据创40年新高,加息预期升温后,美股再度大幅跳水,截至6月17日,标普500、道指、纳指年内跌幅分别达到22.90%、17.75%和30.98%。纳斯达克自本轮高点最大回撤幅度达到35%,已经超过了2020年新冠疫情时期的最大回撤。而且,与彼时不同,美联储已不可能再\"大放水\"救市了,美股的下行周期似乎仍未结束。见闻VIP此前提到,由于美国家庭资产与养老金深度\"绑定\",美股暴跌令美国家庭财富缩水。根据美联储数据显示,一季度房地产等资产价格上涨,但公司股票带来的权益类资产缩水较为严重。图:美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化(来源:美联储)考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶,2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定,美联储有\"看跌期权\",不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏,美股上涨的副作用已经显现,美联储放弃\"看跌期权\"也另有深意。美股涨太多,都没人愿意干活了?根据美联储数据显示,美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金,而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。而美国的养老金与美股\"深度绑定\",养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市,为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来,当养老金赚的\"太多了\",这可能让更多人,尤其是中产阶级摸到了\"财务自由\"门槛、或者说\"养老无忧\"。而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看,20多年来,在\"科技互联网\"高速发展的红利之下,美股涨幅巨大,尤其以纳斯达克为首,20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。需要注意的是,劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口(包括就业和在找工作的失业人数)相对适龄劳动人口(16-64岁人口)的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿,受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。可以看出,由于财富增值效应显著,近20年来,尤其是08年金融危机后,全球\"大放水\"导致美股加速上涨,劳动参与率也快速下滑,意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面,加速了美国薪资的增长,为通胀进一步上升\"添砖加瓦\"。另外,从长期数据来看,这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿,也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右,降至疫情前2%左右水平,但失业率低点却更低了。在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期,这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏,从而更易于涨薪,进而形成\"薪资-物价\"螺旋式上升循环。给美股降温,也是在\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作,在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下,美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益,可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例(1-劳动参与率)来看,除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外,2018年及2022年的美股下跌,都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。这很可能说明,股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。因此,本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强,甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗,以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683396665,"gmtCreate":1655989268463,"gmtModify":1704863801587,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZT2209\">$2年美债2209(ZT2209)$</a>有懂这个的么? 目前还能拿到多少?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ZT2209\">$2年美债2209(ZT2209)$</a>有懂这个的么? 目前还能拿到多少?","text":"$2年美债2209(ZT2209)$有懂这个的么? 目前还能拿到多少?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4840cdf10dcb64a34868c1f54ac7422c","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683396665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610733168,"gmtCreate":1648776417957,"gmtModify":1648776417957,"author":{"id":"4088078943940700","authorId":"4088078943940700","name":"修牙的云哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92059d11d6ba53f7d913ae39a962bbd7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能源期货是? 原油天然气 哪列么?","listText":"能源期货是? 原油天然气 哪列么?","text":"能源期货是? 原油天然气 哪列么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610733168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}