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Ryanlah

Ryanlah

Love the rocket ride with apes

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2021-08-31

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$not only USA, cud have franchising at S.E.A

2021-08-06

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ Won’t cut, justsit n wait 🚀 is launching. APES!!! HODL

2021-07-23

$Apple(AAPL)$tgif

2021-08-31

$Alibaba(BABA)$Buy in 155,157,159,161,163 support support support!!!

2021-08-10

Yeah!!!! Love that launch!

AMC shares rose 7% in premarket trading.<blockquote>AMC股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote>

2021-09-09

$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$Options Options Diso Disco….. 💃🕺

2021-08-07

$Albemarle(ALB)$恭喜更上一乘

2021-08-06

For the greener generations! ♻️

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-08

$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$Woops GoGoGo!

2021-08-06

This is the direction 🚀 and see the rest from the 🌙moon.

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">$ALB 20211217 260.0 CALL(ALB)$</a>What’s inthe 📦…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">$ALB 20211217 260.0 CALL(ALB)$</a>What’s inthe 📦…","text":"$ALB 20211217 260.0 CALL(ALB)$What’s inthe 📦…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24764eb6e52c598cdc8e6e4f8d757d55","width":"750","height":"1464"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844065582","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886782726,"gmtCreate":1631626503565,"gmtModify":1631884037624,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$</a>厉不厉害","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$</a>厉不厉害","text":"$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$厉不厉害","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/675d602688c6ee23baa4432e67edc2df","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886782726","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883051474,"gmtCreate":1631192001998,"gmtModify":1631890055708,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lest take and run along.","listText":"Lest take and run along.","text":"Lest take and run along.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883051474","repostId":"1112626627","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112626627","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631168221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112626627?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 14:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts<blockquote>华尔街六大银行发布市场红色警报</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112626627","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.\nThese ar","content":"<p><i>Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>摩根士丹利、美国银行、德意志银行、花旗集团、瑞士信贷和高盛。</i></blockquote></p><p> These are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.</p><p><blockquote>这些是华尔街一些最大的银行在过去几天对美国股市发布了“红色警报”警告，一些银行预计美国股市即将出现10-20%的回调，而另一些银行则预计未来几个月将缓慢走低。下面我们总结了他们令人惊讶的悲观观点的亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Morgan Stanley</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>摩根士丹利</b></u></blockquote></p><p> We start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"<b>which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500</b>\" through October.</p><p><blockquote>我们从摩根士丹利开始，该公司昨天发布了最新的全球宏观论坛幻灯片（可供专业订阅者使用），该银行首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨(Andrew Sheets)警告称，股市内部继续遵循“中期周期转型”，这一过程通常以优质股票（例如FAAMGs市场“将军”）受到打击而告终，”<b>这给高质量的标普500带来了巨大的风险</b>“一直到十月。</blockquote></p><p> Sheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:</p><p><blockquote>Sheets通过披露他认为将在年底前定义市场的五个主题来构建他的悲观观点。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Policy divergence and the start of tapering:</b>MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>政策分歧与tapering启动：</b>MS预计美联储将在9月会议上表明其缩减规模的意图。随着央行政策变得不那么宽松，政策也变得更加分歧。这将为做多DXY、做空PLN/HUF、做空美国久期和黄金提供支撑，对美国和台湾股市保持谨慎。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Vaccination divergence:</b>The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>疫苗接种分歧：</b>世界有两种应对新冠肺炎的策略——疫苗接种和抑制。德尔塔变异毒株使后者变得困难，增加了疫苗接种率低地区的增长风险。该银行认为这对欧盟股市有利。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Valuation divergence:</b>2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"<i>Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>估值背离：</b>2021年迄今为止，估值出现了广泛调整。床单的建议：“<i>关注估值调整程度较大的领域。我们将巴西股票与新兴市场股票添加到我们的热门交易中。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Echoes of 2004:</b>Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>2004年的回声：</b>Sheets认为2004年为“中期周期转型”提供了有用的指南。他建议承担违约风险而不是利差风险，就像贷款而不是信用债券一样。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Doing things &gt; buying things:</b>The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy &gt; metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>做事&gt;买东西：</b>疫情见证了对商品的需求激增，而对服务的需求崩溃。随着复苏的继续，预计会出现逆转。我们认为这支持能源&gt;金属，并对美国非必需消费品持谨慎态度。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> While regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.</p><p><blockquote>虽然普通读者都知道摩根士丹利的长期主题，即美国经济正在经历周期中期转型，但对于那些不熟悉的人来说，这是该银行首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)之前构建的一种方式，表明ISM制造业指数总是落后于支付的价格，而支付的价格最近已经逆转（如下图所示），表明他密切关注的指标存在重大下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89346c02440d5fab4a98e72d7d27ba1f\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...</p><p><blockquote>作为这种“中期周期转型”的一部分，几个月前，该银行敦促客户从小盘股转向优质股票...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2afd584db11f19b6b05031483d6f6c\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with a<b>market correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...</b></p><p><blockquote>...我们现在正处于结束中期周期转变的边缘，根据迈克尔·威尔逊的说法，这种转变要么以“火灾”结束，要么以<b>由于利率上升，市场调整了10-20%...</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... or<b>\"ice\"</b>as consumer spending grinds to a halt.</p><p><blockquote>...或者<b>“冰”</b>随着消费者支出逐渐停止。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:</p><p><blockquote>综合起来，Andrew Sheets列出了以下5个关键的市场要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>September and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:</b>The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a result<b>Morgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight</b>.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>9月和10月对于央行沟通、经济数据和市场技术面来说是一个棘手的时期：</b>鉴于目前的估值，该行认为美国股票和美国债券都存在风险，因此<b>摩根士丹利将美国股市评级下调至跑输大盘，全球股市评级下调至同等权重</b>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>For the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.</b>On growth, the bank believes that \"<i>we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,</i><i><b>but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>对于全球经济，摩根士丹利认为当前许多通胀压力都是暂时的，但通胀见顶的时间因地区和国家而异。</b>在增长方面，该行认为“<i>我们已经度过了经济活动的高峰期，美国八月份尤其疲软，</i><i><b>但周期的结束还没有临近。”</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li><b>In rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,</b>after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>在利率方面，MS认为核心利率已经触底并将在2021年第四季度和2022年下半年走高也就不足为奇了，</b>毕竟，这是华尔街最大的共识交易（因此很可能是错误的）：央行退出政策宽松和经济数据近期触底应该都有助于推高收益率。Sheets还认为美元在年底也会走高。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>For equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:</b>That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500.<b>Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.</b></p><p><blockquote><li><b>对于股票，Sheets警告说，市场内部继续遵循“中期周期转型”：</b>如上所述，这一过程通常以优质股票受到打击而告终，这给优质标普500带来了巨大的风险。<b>“火”（利率上升）和“冰”（增长放缓比预期更严重）都对今年迄今几乎没有下调评级的市场构成风险。</b></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> Putting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “<b>we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"</b>adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，周三早间Sheets接受彭博电视台采访时表示“<b>我们将在9月份经历一段数据疲软的时期，届时德尔塔变异毒株和学校重新开放的风险将会增加”</b>他补充说，“如果数据确实保持疲软，市场估值就不会像市场其他部分那样调整。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Bank of America</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>美国银行</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Regular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&amp;P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.</p><p><blockquote>老读者都会知道，美国银行是2021年最看跌的大银行之一，其首席投资官每周都会喷出一剂火和硫磺（例如，请参阅他的“12张黑暗图表中的熊市案例”），而该银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian将标准普尔2021年底最低目标价维持在3,800点，与Stifel的Barry Bannister并列最看跌策略师。</blockquote></p><p> Well that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&amp;P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"<i><b>downside risks remain\"</b></i>and asking \"<i><b>what good news is left</b></i>?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&amp;P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.</p><p><blockquote>今天情况发生了变化，就像几周前的迈克尔·威尔逊一样，她最终将年终标普目标价从3800点上调至4250点，承认她正在“根据市场调整我们的模型”，即只是赶上股票，即美联储的资产负债表，但在此之前她警告说“<i><b>下行风险依然存在”</b></i>并询问“<i><b>还剩下什么好消息</b></i>？“事实上，虽然更高，但她的新目标价仍意味着较当前价格下跌6%。下表揭示了她如何达到该特定价格，以及Subramanian如何获得2022年底标准普尔目标价4,600点……仅比现货高出2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90219af90e39133a9a8eb66d0c0b8b5e\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"<i>Should you keep dancing if the music slows down</i>?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&amp;P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.</p><p><blockquote>但她今天早上发表的题为“<i>如果音乐慢下来，你应该继续跳舞吗</i>？“（供专业订阅者使用）是对一切与市场脱轨的事物的严厉批评，对于任何认为在4500点的历史高点买入标准普尔指数是个好主意的人来说，这是一个警示故事。</blockquote></p><p> Next, Subramanian warns that \"<i>sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...</i></p><p><blockquote>接下来，萨勃拉曼尼亚警告说“<i>情绪几乎是乐观的，我们的卖方指标（见SSI）比2007年以来的任何时候都更接近卖出信号”...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cceedf36db75a0f6e084d6dcd15450b5\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&amp;P500 returns...</p><p><blockquote>...一个解释25%后续S&amp;P 500回报的指标...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bba5b54c4c953c1b807b2ade30989a8\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.</p><p><blockquote>...而工资/投入成本通胀和供应链转变开始对利润率造成压力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7359b080cc5e60ad6723c32b74c68b70\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"976\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,<b>with S&amp;P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline</b>. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"</p><p><blockquote>美银策略师还计算出利率风险处于历史高位，<b>标普500股票久期相当于36年期零息债券，贴现率每上升10个基点就相当于下降4%</b>最后，“估值不允许出错。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aef25e2e8272798285ebdeeeb692671\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Having reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"<b>this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>在不情愿地提高了价格目标后，萨勃拉曼尼亚和威尔逊一样，很快警告说：“<b>这可能不会结束。但当它结束时，结局可能会很糟糕。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>   If taper means no upside to the S&amp;P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping –   <b>PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&amp;P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99.</b>  As noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&amp;P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&amp;P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates that<b>the 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果缩减意味着标普500没有上行空间，那么紧缩将会更糟。金丝雀在鸣叫——<b>工业活动晴雨表PPG中止了对供应链困境的指导；信用利差已经悄然扩大，我们的估值模型（对标准普尔10年期回报的解释力约为80%）现在显示自99年以来首次出现负回报（每年-0.8%）。</b>如上所述，萨勃拉曼尼亚还研究了她最喜欢的指标之一——正常化收益的价格——该指标与随后的长期标普500回报有着非常密切的关系。美国银行策略师计算出，标普500当前的追踪正常化市盈率为29倍<b>10年期12个月价格回报率为-0.8%，“代表着科技泡沫以来首次出现负回报”。换句话说，十年后股票将...低于他们现在的位置。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da5e585ef1b82a957e348d35e1e959b\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>Deutsche Bank</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>德意志银行</b></u></blockquote></p><p> While not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.<b>This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>虽然不像摩根士丹利（及其股票跑输大盘评级）或美国银行（其近期和10年预测令人沮丧）那么悲观，但德意志银行也加入了看跌的行列，在该行最新的众议院观点中（可供专业订阅者使用），题为“新世界：超越新冠疫情”，该行写道，“全球经济在夏季表现强劲，但delta变量导致数据低于预期的频率越来越高。<b>这导致我们下调了美国近期增长前景，就像高通胀数据将注意力转移到央行何时缩减资产购买一样。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but<i>\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>展望未来，DB指出，虽然缩减讨论将增加本月美联储和欧洲央行决策的风险，但<i>“9月份还将出现其他对前景至关重要的事件。德国大选已经明显升温，民调显示只有三党联盟才能形成多数，这意味着谈判可能需要几个月的时间。美国政府资金将于9月30日耗尽，围绕债务上限的潜在斗争即将来临。此外，众议院将在9月27日之前对两党基础设施法案进行投票，我们应该很快就会找到下一任美联储主席。”</i></blockquote></p><p> ANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"<i><b>expect an imminent correction</b></i>\" even though they see the S&amp;P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.</p><p><blockquote>尽管金融市场依然活跃，股指屡创新高，但德意志银行的策略师“<i><b>预计即将出现调整</b></i>“尽管他们认为标普500在年底前会回升到目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Some more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&amp;P drop 6%-10%:</p><p><blockquote>有关即将到来的市场回调的更多细节，DB认为标准普尔指数将下跌6%-10%：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Indicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>宏观周期性增长指标见顶，数据意外现为负面</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Earnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.</p><p><blockquote><li>由于自下而上的共识大幅上调了远期预期，盈利上调可能会完成。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Inflation risks are rising.</p><p><blockquote><li>通胀风险上升。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>And overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.</p><p><blockquote><li>尽管回购和资金流入仍然强劲，但整体仓位较高，而散户投资者正在撤退。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> But, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如上所述，在寻求摆脱超级空头的过程中，DB指出，由于其基线仍然是强劲增长，但通胀只是逐渐温和上升，因此它预计股市将反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The summary of the bank's market views is below:</p><p><blockquote>本行市场观点摘要如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393a1c149faa0a0ba4b5a163c46f0615\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Goldman Sachs</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>高盛</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”</p><p><blockquote>也许最令人高兴的观点来自高盛的克里斯蒂安·穆勒-格利斯曼(Christian Mueller-Glissmann)，他在接受彭博社采访时呼应了wefirst几周前的观察结果，即“高估值增加了市场脆弱性”，并补充说，“如果出现新的负面发展，它可能会产生增长冲击，导致风险迅速降低。”</blockquote></p><p> “The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.</p><p><blockquote>穆勒-格利斯曼说：“这里的关键点是，如果你遇到巨大的负面意外，那么剩下的缓冲就所剩无几了。”</blockquote></p><p> Writing in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&amp;P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.<b>After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&amp;P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Mueller-Glissman在周二的GOAL Kickstart报告（可供专业订阅者使用）中写道，“尽管宏观经济疲软，标普500仍继续创下历史新高。事实上，夏季已实现成交量降至8%，预示着新的低成交量状态，从而带来特别强劲的风险调整回报。<b>在第一季度明确的‘好消息就是好消息’制度之后，对于标普500来说，上个季度的‘坏消息’再次变成了‘好消息’。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938dbf6f7ed7bb36b78a422b7829b9b7\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师指出，这“与鸽派‘货币政策’或寻求收益率的更多支持是一致的：实际收益率下降提振了长期长期成长型股票，帮助了目前权重更大的广泛指数。这些股票。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，剖析宏观惊喜表明，尽管全球地图得分直到最近仍为正值，但美国地图在劳动力数据的带动下转为负值，而消费者和制造业表现更好。总而言之，这支持了鸽派的美联储政策预期，创造了“金发姑娘”的背景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cefc2563977601840609b214886ffe6\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, as Goldman warns,<b>\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"</b>During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&amp;P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&amp;P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&amp;P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如高盛警告的那样，<b>“最近，宏观意外也全面变得更加负面。”</b>在宏观经济出现负面意外期间，股市的右尾风险历来较为有限——标普500的平均回报率和命中率往往较低。期权市场已经反映了这一点——对于未来300万美元，标普500回报率非常正（高于8%）的可能性定价低于正常水平，甚至低于经济放缓阶段。另一方面，Mueller-Glissman指出，与低成交量时期的平均水平相比，标普500上涨5%的可能性仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5b78b4707ec4beeb36ba3bde0c12e4\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Meanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，近期较低的已实现波动率已将波动率风险溢价推高至接近2000年后的高点，高盛期权研究团队预计年底前的已实现波动率将低于隐含水平。</blockquote></p><p> The conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"</p><p><blockquote>结论是：“由于股市接近历史高点、股市估值上升以及近期增长/通胀组合不太有利，看涨期权覆盖作为套利覆盖仍然具有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Citigroup</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>花旗集团</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&amp;P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,<b>half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.</b>And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.</p><p><blockquote>花旗的Chris Montagu也谈到了市场脆弱性加剧的威胁，他在最新的观点报告中写道，投资者的仓位已经变得超级看涨，标普500的多头与空头的比例接近10比1。在他看来，<b>其中一半的押注可能会因指数下跌2.2%而面临损失。</b>即使是很小的调整也可能被强制多头平仓放大。</blockquote></p><p> As Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.</p><p><blockquote>正如蒙塔古观察到的那样，主要股指继续创下新高，但不同地区的基础定位差异很大。美国股票头寸被延长且非常片面的净多头，这导致头寸的不对称风险放大了任何小幅的市场调整。投资者继续加剧这种长期偏见。与此同时，欧洲的仓位要轻得多，近期不太可能显着推动价格走势。在日本，日经225指数最近的上涨最初只看到有限的投资者参与，但有迹象表明，尽管ETF继续出现小幅流出，但期货投资者的流动正在加速。</blockquote></p><p> Focusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"</p><p><blockquote>蒙塔古仅关注美国，他写道，“整个夏季，投资者一直在稳步增加净多头敞口”，并且仍然非常多头。与此同时，如果包括“遗留”头寸，特别是6月FOMC会议前后向净多头的大幅波动，那么头寸看起来会更加广泛，因为“投资者上周继续增加多头偏好，但仅以适度稳定的速度”整个夏天剩下的时间都可以看到。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880354e695a0e0b3140c297256f35a1\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">WIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"<b>risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"</b>According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).<b>That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，蒙塔古警告说“<b>下行风险不对称，多头与空头数量接近10比1，头寸拥挤。”</b>根据他的计算，“当跌破4,435点（修正约2.2%）时，这些多头平均获利2.4%，一半头寸亏损。<b>这意味着小幅调整可能会因被迫多头平仓而被放大，从而推动市场进一步下跌。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"<b>nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>最后，纳斯达克同样捉襟见肘，多头头寸集中，使市场更容易受到抛售的影响，而旧头寸则坐拥巨额利润，可以缓冲小幅波动。”<b>近四分之一的头寸是最近的，没有利润缓冲。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一次严重的低迷可能会很快变成一场溃败。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Credit Suisse</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>瑞士信贷</b></u></blockquote></p><p> We round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist&nbsp;Andrew Garthwaite who while turned<b>bearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们通过浏览瑞士信贷股票策略师安德鲁·加斯韦特(Andrew Garthwaite)的最新报告来完善悲观的银行概要。<b>看空美国股市，同时预测债券收益率上升和通胀预期可能有助于欧洲股市跑赢地区同行。</b></blockquote></p><p> Europe’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.</p><p><blockquote>Garthwaite表示，欧洲的PMI势头“比美国好得多，市场异常地与此脱钩”，同时指出，他是美国股市的“小跑输大盘”，因为税收和监管比其他地区构成更高的风险，并指出“极端”估值。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>那么，调整甚至熊市是必然的吗？当然不会，除了美联储之外，还有两个关键的催化剂可以阻止这种结果。一方面，当股市即将突破4,350点的关键支撑位时，银行可以像三周前那样再次创纪录地爆发股票回购。然后，散户投资者的风险偏好持续存在。</blockquote></p><p> In his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通量化分析师Nick Panigirtzoglou在最新的流量和流动性报告中将散户投资者视为近期上涨背后的关键力量，并指出他们在7月和8月向美国股票和ETF投入了近300亿美元现金，为两个月来最多。摩根大通表示，只要宽松货币政策持续下去，这些散户投资者的表现在过去两年中击败了对冲基金，也可能成为保持市场稳定的支撑支柱。</blockquote></p><p> “Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”</p><p><blockquote>包括Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou在内的摩根大通全球策略师在9月1日的一份报告中写道：“散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股市调整看起来不太可能。”“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股市的态度还有待观察。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7624eef20d4b231aad9ebb3afc2e3e10\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"</p><p><blockquote>Panigirtzoglou写道：“今年到目前为止，散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股市调整看起来不太可能。”他补充说，“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股市的态度仍有待观察。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他也承认了相反的论点，“散户流动的力量将股市推高了这么多，并使全球投资者更多地购买跑赢大盘股票，其中许多人不愿意，因此获利了结的风险自然应该很高。事实上，为了支持这一反驳论点，更新我们最全面的股票头寸指标，即全球非银行投资者的隐含股票配置，表明目前的股票配置为46%，仅略低于2018年雷曼危机后47.6%的高点”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1854fc59f780452d1b297f29f0f8fc05\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter&nbsp; argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管摩根大通量化分析师承认他对这一反驳观点表示同情，但“在散户流入股市的资金没有大幅放缓的情况下，股市调整的风险仍然很低。”因此，他认为，未来每天和每周监控零售流量“是股市前景的关键”。</blockquote></p><p> And since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.</p><p><blockquote>既然摩根大通知道这一点，美联储当然也知道这一点，我们相信，即使是最小的市场问题也会在马里纳·埃克尔斯大楼引起强烈反应，因为我们现在已经远远超出了不归路，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司根本无法承受股市哪怕是最小的下跌，而不会冒着市场全面崩溃的风险，这让上面预测这一点的银行非常懊恼。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts<blockquote>华尔街六大银行发布市场红色警报</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts<blockquote>华尔街六大银行发布市场红色警报</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 14:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>摩根士丹利、美国银行、德意志银行、花旗集团、瑞士信贷和高盛。</i></blockquote></p><p> These are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.</p><p><blockquote>这些是华尔街一些最大的银行在过去几天对美国股市发布了“红色警报”警告，一些银行预计美国股市即将出现10-20%的回调，而另一些银行则预计未来几个月将缓慢走低。下面我们总结了他们令人惊讶的悲观观点的亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Morgan Stanley</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>摩根士丹利</b></u></blockquote></p><p> We start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"<b>which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500</b>\" through October.</p><p><blockquote>我们从摩根士丹利开始，该公司昨天发布了最新的全球宏观论坛幻灯片（可供专业订阅者使用），该银行首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨(Andrew Sheets)警告称，股市内部继续遵循“中期周期转型”，这一过程通常以优质股票（例如FAAMGs市场“将军”）受到打击而告终，”<b>这给高质量的标普500带来了巨大的风险</b>“一直到十月。</blockquote></p><p> Sheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:</p><p><blockquote>Sheets通过披露他认为将在年底前定义市场的五个主题来构建他的悲观观点。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Policy divergence and the start of tapering:</b>MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>政策分歧与tapering启动：</b>MS预计美联储将在9月会议上表明其缩减规模的意图。随着央行政策变得不那么宽松，政策也变得更加分歧。这将为做多DXY、做空PLN/HUF、做空美国久期和黄金提供支撑，对美国和台湾股市保持谨慎。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Vaccination divergence:</b>The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>疫苗接种分歧：</b>世界有两种应对新冠肺炎的策略——疫苗接种和抑制。德尔塔变异毒株使后者变得困难，增加了疫苗接种率低地区的增长风险。该银行认为这对欧盟股市有利。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Valuation divergence:</b>2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"<i>Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"</i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>估值背离：</b>2021年迄今为止，估值出现了广泛调整。床单的建议：“<i>关注估值调整程度较大的领域。我们将巴西股票与新兴市场股票添加到我们的热门交易中。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Echoes of 2004:</b>Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>2004年的回声：</b>Sheets认为2004年为“中期周期转型”提供了有用的指南。他建议承担违约风险而不是利差风险，就像贷款而不是信用债券一样。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Doing things &gt; buying things:</b>The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy &gt; metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>做事&gt;买东西：</b>疫情见证了对商品的需求激增，而对服务的需求崩溃。随着复苏的继续，预计会出现逆转。我们认为这支持能源&gt;金属，并对美国非必需消费品持谨慎态度。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> While regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.</p><p><blockquote>虽然普通读者都知道摩根士丹利的长期主题，即美国经济正在经历周期中期转型，但对于那些不熟悉的人来说，这是该银行首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)之前构建的一种方式，表明ISM制造业指数总是落后于支付的价格，而支付的价格最近已经逆转（如下图所示），表明他密切关注的指标存在重大下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89346c02440d5fab4a98e72d7d27ba1f\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...</p><p><blockquote>作为这种“中期周期转型”的一部分，几个月前，该银行敦促客户从小盘股转向优质股票...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2afd584db11f19b6b05031483d6f6c\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with a<b>market correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...</b></p><p><blockquote>...我们现在正处于结束中期周期转变的边缘，根据迈克尔·威尔逊的说法，这种转变要么以“火灾”结束，要么以<b>由于利率上升，市场调整了10-20%...</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... or<b>\"ice\"</b>as consumer spending grinds to a halt.</p><p><blockquote>...或者<b>“冰”</b>随着消费者支出逐渐停止。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:</p><p><blockquote>综合起来，Andrew Sheets列出了以下5个关键的市场要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>September and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:</b>The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a result<b>Morgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight</b>.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>9月和10月对于央行沟通、经济数据和市场技术面来说是一个棘手的时期：</b>鉴于目前的估值，该行认为美国股票和美国债券都存在风险，因此<b>摩根士丹利将美国股市评级下调至跑输大盘，全球股市评级下调至同等权重</b>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>For the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.</b>On growth, the bank believes that \"<i>we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,</i><i><b>but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"</b></i></p><p><blockquote><li><b>对于全球经济，摩根士丹利认为当前许多通胀压力都是暂时的，但通胀见顶的时间因地区和国家而异。</b>在增长方面，该行认为“<i>我们已经度过了经济活动的高峰期，美国八月份尤其疲软，</i><i><b>但周期的结束还没有临近。”</b></i></li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li><b>In rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,</b>after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>在利率方面，MS认为核心利率已经触底并将在2021年第四季度和2022年下半年走高也就不足为奇了，</b>毕竟，这是华尔街最大的共识交易（因此很可能是错误的）：央行退出政策宽松和经济数据近期触底应该都有助于推高收益率。Sheets还认为美元在年底也会走高。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>For equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:</b>That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500.<b>Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.</b></p><p><blockquote><li><b>对于股票，Sheets警告说，市场内部继续遵循“中期周期转型”：</b>如上所述，这一过程通常以优质股票受到打击而告终，这给优质标普500带来了巨大的风险。<b>“火”（利率上升）和“冰”（增长放缓比预期更严重）都对今年迄今几乎没有下调评级的市场构成风险。</b></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> Putting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “<b>we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"</b>adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，周三早间Sheets接受彭博电视台采访时表示“<b>我们将在9月份经历一段数据疲软的时期，届时德尔塔变异毒株和学校重新开放的风险将会增加”</b>他补充说，“如果数据确实保持疲软，市场估值就不会像市场其他部分那样调整。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Bank of America</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>美国银行</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Regular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&amp;P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.</p><p><blockquote>老读者都会知道，美国银行是2021年最看跌的大银行之一，其首席投资官每周都会喷出一剂火和硫磺（例如，请参阅他的“12张黑暗图表中的熊市案例”），而该银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian将标准普尔2021年底最低目标价维持在3,800点，与Stifel的Barry Bannister并列最看跌策略师。</blockquote></p><p> Well that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&amp;P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"<i><b>downside risks remain\"</b></i>and asking \"<i><b>what good news is left</b></i>?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&amp;P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.</p><p><blockquote>今天情况发生了变化，就像几周前的迈克尔·威尔逊一样，她最终将年终标普目标价从3800点上调至4250点，承认她正在“根据市场调整我们的模型”，即只是赶上股票，即美联储的资产负债表，但在此之前她警告说“<i><b>下行风险依然存在”</b></i>并询问“<i><b>还剩下什么好消息</b></i>？“事实上，虽然更高，但她的新目标价仍意味着较当前价格下跌6%。下表揭示了她如何达到该特定价格，以及Subramanian如何获得2022年底标准普尔目标价4,600点……仅比现货高出2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90219af90e39133a9a8eb66d0c0b8b5e\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"<i>Should you keep dancing if the music slows down</i>?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&amp;P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.</p><p><blockquote>但她今天早上发表的题为“<i>如果音乐慢下来，你应该继续跳舞吗</i>？“（供专业订阅者使用）是对一切与市场脱轨的事物的严厉批评，对于任何认为在4500点的历史高点买入标准普尔指数是个好主意的人来说，这是一个警示故事。</blockquote></p><p> Next, Subramanian warns that \"<i>sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...</i></p><p><blockquote>接下来，萨勃拉曼尼亚警告说“<i>情绪几乎是乐观的，我们的卖方指标（见SSI）比2007年以来的任何时候都更接近卖出信号”...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cceedf36db75a0f6e084d6dcd15450b5\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&amp;P500 returns...</p><p><blockquote>...一个解释25%后续S&amp;P 500回报的指标...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bba5b54c4c953c1b807b2ade30989a8\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.</p><p><blockquote>...而工资/投入成本通胀和供应链转变开始对利润率造成压力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7359b080cc5e60ad6723c32b74c68b70\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"976\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,<b>with S&amp;P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline</b>. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"</p><p><blockquote>美银策略师还计算出利率风险处于历史高位，<b>标普500股票久期相当于36年期零息债券，贴现率每上升10个基点就相当于下降4%</b>最后，“估值不允许出错。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aef25e2e8272798285ebdeeeb692671\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Having reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"<b>this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>在不情愿地提高了价格目标后，萨勃拉曼尼亚和威尔逊一样，很快警告说：“<b>这可能不会结束。但当它结束时，结局可能会很糟糕。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>   If taper means no upside to the S&amp;P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping –   <b>PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&amp;P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99.</b>  As noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&amp;P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&amp;P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates that<b>the 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果缩减意味着标普500没有上行空间，那么紧缩将会更糟。金丝雀在鸣叫——<b>工业活动晴雨表PPG中止了对供应链困境的指导；信用利差已经悄然扩大，我们的估值模型（对标准普尔10年期回报的解释力约为80%）现在显示自99年以来首次出现负回报（每年-0.8%）。</b>如上所述，萨勃拉曼尼亚还研究了她最喜欢的指标之一——正常化收益的价格——该指标与随后的长期标普500回报有着非常密切的关系。美国银行策略师计算出，标普500当前的追踪正常化市盈率为29倍<b>10年期12个月价格回报率为-0.8%，“代表着科技泡沫以来首次出现负回报”。换句话说，十年后股票将...低于他们现在的位置。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da5e585ef1b82a957e348d35e1e959b\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>Deutsche Bank</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>德意志银行</b></u></blockquote></p><p> While not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.<b>This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>虽然不像摩根士丹利（及其股票跑输大盘评级）或美国银行（其近期和10年预测令人沮丧）那么悲观，但德意志银行也加入了看跌的行列，在该行最新的众议院观点中（可供专业订阅者使用），题为“新世界：超越新冠疫情”，该行写道，“全球经济在夏季表现强劲，但delta变量导致数据低于预期的频率越来越高。<b>这导致我们下调了美国近期增长前景，就像高通胀数据将注意力转移到央行何时缩减资产购买一样。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but<i>\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>展望未来，DB指出，虽然缩减讨论将增加本月美联储和欧洲央行决策的风险，但<i>“9月份还将出现其他对前景至关重要的事件。德国大选已经明显升温，民调显示只有三党联盟才能形成多数，这意味着谈判可能需要几个月的时间。美国政府资金将于9月30日耗尽，围绕债务上限的潜在斗争即将来临。此外，众议院将在9月27日之前对两党基础设施法案进行投票，我们应该很快就会找到下一任美联储主席。”</i></blockquote></p><p> ANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"<i><b>expect an imminent correction</b></i>\" even though they see the S&amp;P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.</p><p><blockquote>尽管金融市场依然活跃，股指屡创新高，但德意志银行的策略师“<i><b>预计即将出现调整</b></i>“尽管他们认为标普500在年底前会回升到目前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Some more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&amp;P drop 6%-10%:</p><p><blockquote>有关即将到来的市场回调的更多细节，DB认为标准普尔指数将下跌6%-10%：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Indicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>宏观周期性增长指标见顶，数据意外现为负面</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Earnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.</p><p><blockquote><li>由于自下而上的共识大幅上调了远期预期，盈利上调可能会完成。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Inflation risks are rising.</p><p><blockquote><li>通胀风险上升。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>And overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.</p><p><blockquote><li>尽管回购和资金流入仍然强劲，但整体仓位较高，而散户投资者正在撤退。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> But, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如上所述，在寻求摆脱超级空头的过程中，DB指出，由于其基线仍然是强劲增长，但通胀只是逐渐温和上升，因此它预计股市将反弹。</blockquote></p><p> The summary of the bank's market views is below:</p><p><blockquote>本行市场观点摘要如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393a1c149faa0a0ba4b5a163c46f0615\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Goldman Sachs</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>高盛</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”</p><p><blockquote>也许最令人高兴的观点来自高盛的克里斯蒂安·穆勒-格利斯曼(Christian Mueller-Glissmann)，他在接受彭博社采访时呼应了wefirst几周前的观察结果，即“高估值增加了市场脆弱性”，并补充说，“如果出现新的负面发展，它可能会产生增长冲击，导致风险迅速降低。”</blockquote></p><p> “The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.</p><p><blockquote>穆勒-格利斯曼说：“这里的关键点是，如果你遇到巨大的负面意外，那么剩下的缓冲就所剩无几了。”</blockquote></p><p> Writing in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&amp;P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.<b>After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&amp;P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>Mueller-Glissman在周二的GOAL Kickstart报告（可供专业订阅者使用）中写道，“尽管宏观经济疲软，标普500仍继续创下历史新高。事实上，夏季已实现成交量降至8%，预示着新的低成交量状态，从而带来特别强劲的风险调整回报。<b>在第一季度明确的‘好消息就是好消息’制度之后，对于标普500来说，上个季度的‘坏消息’再次变成了‘好消息’。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938dbf6f7ed7bb36b78a422b7829b9b7\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师指出，这“与鸽派‘货币政策’或寻求收益率的更多支持是一致的：实际收益率下降提振了长期长期成长型股票，帮助了目前权重更大的广泛指数。这些股票。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Meanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，剖析宏观惊喜表明，尽管全球地图得分直到最近仍为正值，但美国地图在劳动力数据的带动下转为负值，而消费者和制造业表现更好。总而言之，这支持了鸽派的美联储政策预期，创造了“金发姑娘”的背景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cefc2563977601840609b214886ffe6\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, as Goldman warns,<b>\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"</b>During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&amp;P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&amp;P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&amp;P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正如高盛警告的那样，<b>“最近，宏观意外也全面变得更加负面。”</b>在宏观经济出现负面意外期间，股市的右尾风险历来较为有限——标普500的平均回报率和命中率往往较低。期权市场已经反映了这一点——对于未来300万美元，标普500回报率非常正（高于8%）的可能性定价低于正常水平，甚至低于经济放缓阶段。另一方面，Mueller-Glissman指出，与低成交量时期的平均水平相比，标普500上涨5%的可能性仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5b78b4707ec4beeb36ba3bde0c12e4\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Meanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，近期较低的已实现波动率已将波动率风险溢价推高至接近2000年后的高点，高盛期权研究团队预计年底前的已实现波动率将低于隐含水平。</blockquote></p><p> The conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"</p><p><blockquote>结论是：“由于股市接近历史高点、股市估值上升以及近期增长/通胀组合不太有利，看涨期权覆盖作为套利覆盖仍然具有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Citigroup</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>花旗集团</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&amp;P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,<b>half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.</b>And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.</p><p><blockquote>花旗的Chris Montagu也谈到了市场脆弱性加剧的威胁，他在最新的观点报告中写道，投资者的仓位已经变得超级看涨，标普500的多头与空头的比例接近10比1。在他看来，<b>其中一半的押注可能会因指数下跌2.2%而面临损失。</b>即使是很小的调整也可能被强制多头平仓放大。</blockquote></p><p> As Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.</p><p><blockquote>正如蒙塔古观察到的那样，主要股指继续创下新高，但不同地区的基础定位差异很大。美国股票头寸被延长且非常片面的净多头，这导致头寸的不对称风险放大了任何小幅的市场调整。投资者继续加剧这种长期偏见。与此同时，欧洲的仓位要轻得多，近期不太可能显着推动价格走势。在日本，日经225指数最近的上涨最初只看到有限的投资者参与，但有迹象表明，尽管ETF继续出现小幅流出，但期货投资者的流动正在加速。</blockquote></p><p> Focusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"</p><p><blockquote>蒙塔古仅关注美国，他写道，“整个夏季，投资者一直在稳步增加净多头敞口”，并且仍然非常多头。与此同时，如果包括“遗留”头寸，特别是6月FOMC会议前后向净多头的大幅波动，那么头寸看起来会更加广泛，因为“投资者上周继续增加多头偏好，但仅以适度稳定的速度”整个夏天剩下的时间都可以看到。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880354e695a0e0b3140c297256f35a1\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">WIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"<b>risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"</b>According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).<b>That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，蒙塔古警告说“<b>下行风险不对称，多头与空头数量接近10比1，头寸拥挤。”</b>根据他的计算，“当跌破4,435点（修正约2.2%）时，这些多头平均获利2.4%，一半头寸亏损。<b>这意味着小幅调整可能会因被迫多头平仓而被放大，从而推动市场进一步下跌。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"<b>nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>最后，纳斯达克同样捉襟见肘，多头头寸集中，使市场更容易受到抛售的影响，而旧头寸则坐拥巨额利润，可以缓冲小幅波动。”<b>近四分之一的头寸是最近的，没有利润缓冲。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一次严重的低迷可能会很快变成一场溃败。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Credit Suisse</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>瑞士信贷</b></u></blockquote></p><p> We round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist&nbsp;Andrew Garthwaite who while turned<b>bearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们通过浏览瑞士信贷股票策略师安德鲁·加斯韦特(Andrew Garthwaite)的最新报告来完善悲观的银行概要。<b>看空美国股市，同时预测债券收益率上升和通胀预期可能有助于欧洲股市跑赢地区同行。</b></blockquote></p><p> Europe’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.</p><p><blockquote>Garthwaite表示，欧洲的PMI势头“比美国好得多，市场异常地与此脱钩”，同时指出，他是美国股市的“小跑输大盘”，因为税收和监管比其他地区构成更高的风险，并指出“极端”估值。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>那么，调整甚至熊市是必然的吗？当然不会，除了美联储之外，还有两个关键的催化剂可以阻止这种结果。一方面，当股市即将突破4,350点的关键支撑位时，银行可以像三周前那样再次创纪录地爆发股票回购。然后，散户投资者的风险偏好持续存在。</blockquote></p><p> In his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通量化分析师Nick Panigirtzoglou在最新的流量和流动性报告中将散户投资者视为近期上涨背后的关键力量，并指出他们在7月和8月向美国股票和ETF投入了近300亿美元现金，为两个月来最多。摩根大通表示，只要宽松货币政策持续下去，这些散户投资者的表现在过去两年中击败了对冲基金，也可能成为保持市场稳定的支撑支柱。</blockquote></p><p> “Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”</p><p><blockquote>包括Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou在内的摩根大通全球策略师在9月1日的一份报告中写道：“散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股市调整看起来不太可能。”“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股市的态度还有待观察。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7624eef20d4b231aad9ebb3afc2e3e10\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"</p><p><blockquote>Panigirtzoglou写道：“今年到目前为止，散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股市调整看起来不太可能。”他补充说，“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股市的态度仍有待观察。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，他也承认了相反的论点，“散户流动的力量将股市推高了这么多，并使全球投资者更多地购买跑赢大盘股票，其中许多人不愿意，因此获利了结的风险自然应该很高。事实上，为了支持这一反驳论点，更新我们最全面的股票头寸指标，即全球非银行投资者的隐含股票配置，表明目前的股票配置为46%，仅略低于2018年雷曼危机后47.6%的高点”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1854fc59f780452d1b297f29f0f8fc05\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter&nbsp; argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管摩根大通量化分析师承认他对这一反驳观点表示同情，但“在散户流入股市的资金没有大幅放缓的情况下，股市调整的风险仍然很低。”因此，他认为，未来每天和每周监控零售流量“是股市前景的关键”。</blockquote></p><p> And since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.</p><p><blockquote>既然摩根大通知道这一点，美联储当然也知道这一点，我们相信，即使是最小的市场问题也会在马里纳·埃克尔斯大楼引起强烈反应，因为我们现在已经远远超出了不归路，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司根本无法承受股市哪怕是最小的下跌，而不会冒着市场全面崩溃的风险，这让上面预测这一点的银行非常懊恼。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/six-largest-wall-street-banks-issue-market-red-alerts\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/six-largest-wall-street-banks-issue-market-red-alerts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112626627","content_text":"Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.\nThese are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.\nMorgan Stanley\nWe start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500\" through October.\nSheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:\n\nPolicy divergence and the start of tapering:MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.\nVaccination divergence:The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.\nValuation divergence:2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"\nEchoes of 2004:Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.\nDoing things > buying things:The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy > metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.\n\nWhile regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.\n\nAs part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...\n\n... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with amarket correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...\n\n... or\"ice\"as consumer spending grinds to a halt.\nPutting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:\n\nSeptember and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a resultMorgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight.\nFor the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.On growth, the bank believes that \"we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"\nIn rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.\nFor equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500.Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.\n\nPutting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”\nBank of America\nRegular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.\nWell that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"downside risks remain\"and asking \"what good news is left?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.\n\nBut far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"Should you keep dancing if the music slows down?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.\nNext, Subramanian warns that \"sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...\n\n... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&P500 returns...\n\n... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.\n\nThe BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,with S&P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"\n\nHaving reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"\n\n If taper means no upside to the S&P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping – \n PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99.\n\nAs noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates thatthe 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.\nDeutsche Bank\nWhile not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"\nLooking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"\nANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"expect an imminent correction\" even though they see the S&P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.\nSome more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&P drop 6%-10%:\n\nIndicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative\nEarnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.\nInflation risks are rising.\nAnd overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.\n\nBut, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.\nThe summary of the bank's market views is below:\n\nGoldman Sachs\nPerhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”\n“The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.\nWriting in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"\nThis, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"\nMeanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.\nHowever, as Goldman warns,\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.\nMeanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.\nThe conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"\nCitigroup\nThe threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.\nAs Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.\nFocusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"\nWIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.\"\nFinally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"\nIn short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.\nCredit Suisse\nWe round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite who while turnedbearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.\nEurope’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.\n* * *\nSo is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.\nIn his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.\n“Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”\n\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"\nAt the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".\nAnd while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter  argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"\nAnd since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889896455,"gmtCreate":1631133109277,"gmtModify":1631884401490,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$</a>Options Options Diso Disco….. 💃🕺&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$</a>Options Options Diso Disco….. 💃🕺&nbsp;","text":"$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$Options Options Diso Disco….. 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GoGoGo!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19fbd3e0d408ec5efa7e6b6fb86e252c","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880548664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816442866,"gmtCreate":1630521483955,"gmtModify":1631884406284,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>F}}#%%^^kin HLOD em!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>F}}#%%^^kin HLOD em!!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$F}}#%%^^kin HLOD em!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2386338e464cfe67623b191d7be5a5e0","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816442866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818534029,"gmtCreate":1630418597261,"gmtModify":1631885308018,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">$Support.com(SPRT)$</a>Just support!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">$Support.com(SPRT)$</a>Just support!","text":"$Support.com(SPRT)$Just support!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc436137a2eacdf07a0eb79fb64d23b8","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818534029","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811739816,"gmtCreate":1630344983135,"gmtModify":1704958879500,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Pls support!! We boarded&nbsp;🚀 &amp;&nbsp;is coming to the 🌙&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Pls support!! We boarded&nbsp;🚀 &amp;&nbsp;is coming to the 🌙&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Pls support!! We boarded 🚀 & is coming to the 🌙","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86dff4a6942b10aa279332dedb07c55f","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811739816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811792486,"gmtCreate":1630344025845,"gmtModify":1704958872409,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>not only USA, cud have franchising at S.E.A","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>not only USA, cud have franchising at S.E.A","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$not only USA, cud have franchising at S.E.A","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f342494cb2e81047f9a38485409e346","width":"4032","height":"2268"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811792486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811796231,"gmtCreate":1630343814723,"gmtModify":1704958870335,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Buy in 155,157,159,161,163 support support support!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Buy in 155,157,159,161,163 support support support!!!","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Buy in 155,157,159,161,163 support support support!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811796231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811259046,"gmtCreate":1630328850685,"gmtModify":1704958507901,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>we had this in my hood!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>we had this in my hood!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$we had this in my hood!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b31f19a95649ee15b0a8d57101ccea4","width":"3355","height":"684"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811259046","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831639948,"gmtCreate":1629310137884,"gmtModify":1631886974841,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>just another meme to meet.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>just another meme to meet.","text":"$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$just another meme to meet.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33fab6a32a391d0e9b2396bb9203896b","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831639948","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831695776,"gmtCreate":1629309085895,"gmtModify":1631890055719,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s 10% and 🚀 to meet at the 🌚 !","listText":"It’s 10% and 🚀 to meet at the 🌚 !","text":"It’s 10% and 🚀 to meet at the 🌚 !","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bcb6cdd0774de383b49d244be2a354","width":"750","height":"2103"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831695776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831695110,"gmtCreate":1629308982830,"gmtModify":1631890055718,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"10 par enuff? 👍","listText":"10 par enuff? 👍","text":"10 par enuff? 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831695110","repostId":"1171001359","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831695905,"gmtCreate":1629308941207,"gmtModify":1631890055721,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok lor","listText":"Ok lor","text":"Ok lor","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831695905","repostId":"1130907862","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130907862","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629263879,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130907862?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 13:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?<blockquote>英伟达：下一只“永不出售”的股票？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130907862","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week  as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!NVIDIA Corp.  reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands  in three ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.</li>  <li>While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.</li>  <li>That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!</li>  <li>Is this the next \"never sell\" stock?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38542d6cdbd9dec8054c33389caf105c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达将于本周三（8/18）公布财报，该股徘徊在历史高点附近。</li><li>虽然该公司的未来看起来肯定是光明的，但股票定价可能会趋于完美。</li><li>也就是说，如果现在有哪只股票值得高市盈率，那就是英伟达！</li><li>这是下一只“永不出售”的股票吗？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达公司（NVDA）本周公布了财报，该股的定价似乎非常完美。</blockquote></p><p> That said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!</p><p><blockquote>也就是说……有些股票你就是不卖！</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达当然属于这一类。如果说今天有哪家公司值得获得高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达。该公司涉足技术领域三个最大的增长领域：游戏、加密货币和5G（更不用说它在汽车/自动驾驶领域的重要性了！）.</blockquote></p><p> In fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这是一只您可能应该在任何有意义的回调时增加头寸的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Which makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!</p><p><blockquote>这使得它成为现金担保看跌策略的绝佳股票。通过对你想在任何下跌时买入（或增持）的股票设置下跌限价单来获得报酬！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当我们进入本周的财报时，让我们来看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> High-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>高增长科技公司总是很难估值，因为根据未来增长预测，它们的交易价格往往非常高（当前）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488bcf7cabe5578f2e798e2b21b60dc0\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).</p><p><blockquote>是的，45.8倍的预期市盈率是一个健康的市盈率，但如果今天有哪家公司值得拥有高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达（考虑到其芯片在技术主要增长领域的重要性）。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的历史销售额和EPS增长图表一直是一件美好的事情！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961a45a675c7ac09b08b5b755c2d096c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.<i>Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情期间一些销售额肯定有所提前，但该公司预计2022财年每股收益为3.95美元（比2021年增长129%）。然而，NVDA预计2023年和2024年的盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股4.36美元（增长10%）和每股5.04美元（增长16%）。<i>请注意，NVDA的财政年度结束时间是一月份。</i></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也非常强劲，拥有127亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率高达23.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"N\" in FAANG?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>FAANG的“N”？</b></blockquote></p><p> One could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，英伟达实际上应该取代Netflix(NFLX)成为FAANG中的“N”。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达目前是标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）第九大权重。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9991ce7ada74056e0662b198cf339154\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).</p><p><blockquote>在纳斯达克100指数(QQQ)中权重排名第八。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f835b261cdbc64458bb82196e5134f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??</p><p><blockquote>英伟达也会成为道琼斯工业平均指数的下一个成员吗（在某个时候取代国际商业机器公司（IBM））？？</blockquote></p><p> All the more reason to not sell any time soon...</p><p><blockquote>更有理由不尽快出售...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入！（透过现金抵押看跌期权）</b></blockquote></p><p> Cash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.</p><p><blockquote>现金担保看跌期权是增加您喜欢的股票长期头寸的好方法。</blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对NVIDIA的打击区为149.00美元至173.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际13.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e38091bf0ca8f52b16334659004eef4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA历来是一只波动性较大的股票（隐含波动率为42%），其波动性/风险评级为4就突显了这一点。然而，该股正处于非常强劲的上升趋势（因此其回调指标2也对最低所需安全边际产生负面影响，目前为13.0%）。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA本周还公布了收益，因此我们的期权分析需要关注这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股仍处于非常强劲的上升趋势，其50日移动平均线（蓝线）高于200日移动平均线（红线）。我们现在有一些良好的支持水平值得关注：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>50-day MA (~$193.00)</li>  <li>Low from July 2021 (~$181.50)</li>  <li>Breakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)</li>  <li>200-day MA (~$152.50)</li> </ol> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28eb9670c7016d91d063e8e7809de17d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>50天均线（~193.00美元）</li><li>2021年7月以来的低点（约181.50美元）</li><li>2021年5月起的突破水平（~161.00美元）</li><li>200日均线（~152.50美元）</li></ol></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区149.00美元至173.00美元似乎有一些不错的技术支持，这显然让我们对在执行区周围出售现金担保看跌期权感觉相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英伟达的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是21年9月17日到期的8月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f301b2bff52960855c087e8208548dbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权@约1.81美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.0%，安全边际为12.3%，Delta为13。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（185.00美元）或更保守（170.00美元）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们在9月17日以1.81美元的价格出售了NVDA 175.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取181.00美元的权利金。作为此溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以175.00美元的执行价格为每份出售的合约购买100股NVDA股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在175.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留1.81美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于175.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以175.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是173.19美元（175.00美元-1.81美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为如果您能够以173.19美元的成本基础增加您的NVDA头寸，这是一个双赢的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英伟达的长期和短期看法，我们认为现金担保看跌策略目前对于有兴趣增加头寸（或建立新头寸）的投资者来说非常有意义。NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权的平均月收益率为1.0%（或未来31天为1.0%），安全边际为12.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).</p><p><blockquote>假设您可以继续以类似的风险/回报参数每45-60天滚动该头寸，那么您可以在未来12个月内从NVIDIA获得12%以上的年化收入（同时您耐心等待增加头寸）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?<blockquote>英伟达：下一只“永不出售”的股票？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?<blockquote>英伟达：下一只“永不出售”的股票？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.</li>  <li>While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.</li>  <li>That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!</li>  <li>Is this the next \"never sell\" stock?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38542d6cdbd9dec8054c33389caf105c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达将于本周三（8/18）公布财报，该股徘徊在历史高点附近。</li><li>虽然该公司的未来看起来肯定是光明的，但股票定价可能会趋于完美。</li><li>也就是说，如果现在有哪只股票值得高市盈率，那就是英伟达！</li><li>这是下一只“永不出售”的股票吗？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Daniel Chetroni/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达公司（NVDA）本周公布了财报，该股的定价似乎非常完美。</blockquote></p><p> That said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!</p><p><blockquote>也就是说……有些股票你就是不卖！</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达当然属于这一类。如果说今天有哪家公司值得获得高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达。该公司涉足技术领域三个最大的增长领域：游戏、加密货币和5G（更不用说它在汽车/自动驾驶领域的重要性了！）.</blockquote></p><p> In fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这是一只您可能应该在任何有意义的回调时增加头寸的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Which makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!</p><p><blockquote>这使得它成为现金担保看跌策略的绝佳股票。通过对你想在任何下跌时买入（或增持）的股票设置下跌限价单来获得报酬！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.</p><p><blockquote>当我们进入本周的财报时，让我们来看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> High-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>高增长科技公司总是很难估值，因为根据未来增长预测，它们的交易价格往往非常高（当前）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488bcf7cabe5578f2e798e2b21b60dc0\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).</p><p><blockquote>是的，45.8倍的预期市盈率是一个健康的市盈率，但如果今天有哪家公司值得拥有高市盈率，那肯定是英伟达（考虑到其芯片在技术主要增长领域的重要性）。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的历史销售额和EPS增长图表一直是一件美好的事情！</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961a45a675c7ac09b08b5b755c2d096c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.<i>Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.</i></p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情期间一些销售额肯定有所提前，但该公司预计2022财年每股收益为3.95美元（比2021年增长129%）。然而，NVDA预计2023年和2024年的盈利将进一步增长，分别达到每股4.36美元（增长10%）和每股5.04美元（增长16%）。<i>请注意，NVDA的财政年度结束时间是一月份。</i></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表也非常强劲，拥有127亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率高达23.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The \"N\" in FAANG?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>FAANG的“N”？</b></blockquote></p><p> One could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，英伟达实际上应该取代Netflix(NFLX)成为FAANG中的“N”。</blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>英伟达目前是标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）第九大权重。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9991ce7ada74056e0662b198cf339154\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).</p><p><blockquote>在纳斯达克100指数(QQQ)中权重排名第八。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f835b261cdbc64458bb82196e5134f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??</p><p><blockquote>英伟达也会成为道琼斯工业平均指数的下一个成员吗（在某个时候取代国际商业机器公司（IBM））？？</blockquote></p><p> All the more reason to not sell any time soon...</p><p><blockquote>更有理由不尽快出售...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入！（透过现金抵押看跌期权）</b></blockquote></p><p> Cash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.</p><p><blockquote>现金担保看跌期权是增加您喜欢的股票长期头寸的好方法。</blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对NVIDIA的打击区为149.00美元至173.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际13.0%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e38091bf0ca8f52b16334659004eef4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA历来是一只波动性较大的股票（隐含波动率为42%），其波动性/风险评级为4就突显了这一点。然而，该股正处于非常强劲的上升趋势（因此其回调指标2也对最低所需安全边际产生负面影响，目前为13.0%）。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA本周还公布了收益，因此我们的期权分析需要关注这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股仍处于非常强劲的上升趋势，其50日移动平均线（蓝线）高于200日移动平均线（红线）。我们现在有一些良好的支持水平值得关注：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>50-day MA (~$193.00)</li>  <li>Low from July 2021 (~$181.50)</li>  <li>Breakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)</li>  <li>200-day MA (~$152.50)</li> </ol> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28eb9670c7016d91d063e8e7809de17d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>50天均线（~193.00美元）</li><li>2021年7月以来的低点（约181.50美元）</li><li>2021年5月起的突破水平（~161.00美元）</li><li>200日均线（~152.50美元）</li></ol></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区149.00美元至173.00美元似乎有一些不错的技术支持，这显然让我们对在执行区周围出售现金担保看跌期权感觉相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英伟达的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是21年9月17日到期的8月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f301b2bff52960855c087e8208548dbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权@约1.81美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.0%，安全边际为12.3%，Delta为13。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（185.00美元）或更保守（170.00美元）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们在9月17日以1.81美元的价格出售了NVDA 175.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取181.00美元的权利金。作为此溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以175.00美元的执行价格为每份出售的合约购买100股NVDA股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在175.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留1.81美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于175.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以175.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是173.19美元（175.00美元-1.81美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为如果您能够以173.19美元的成本基础增加您的NVDA头寸，这是一个双赢的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英伟达的长期和短期看法，我们认为现金担保看跌策略目前对于有兴趣增加头寸（或建立新头寸）的投资者来说非常有意义。NVDA 9月17日175.00美元看跌期权的平均月收益率为1.0%（或未来31天为1.0%），安全边际为12.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Assuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).</p><p><blockquote>假设您可以继续以类似的风险/回报参数每45-60天滚动该头寸，那么您可以在未来12个月内从NVIDIA获得12%以上的年化收入（同时您耐心等待增加头寸）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450207-nvidia-the-next-never-sell-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450207-nvidia-the-next-never-sell-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130907862","content_text":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.\nWhile the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.\nThat said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!\nIs this the next \"never sell\" stock?\n\nDaniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nNVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.\nThat said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!\nNVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).\nIn fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.\nWhich makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!\nValuation\nAs we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.\nHigh-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.\n\nYes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).\nNVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!\n\nAlthough some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.\nThe company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.\nThe \"N\" in FAANG?\nOne could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.\nNVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nSource: YCharts\nAnd the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).\nSource: YCharts\nCould NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??\nAll the more reason to not sell any time soon...\nBuy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)\nCash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.\n(Source: Option income Advisor)\nNVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).\nNVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:\n\n50-day MA (~$193.00)\nLow from July 2021 (~$181.50)\nBreakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)\n200-day MA (~$152.50)\n\n\nThere appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nWe have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).Please listen to the video above for further details.\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.\nIf the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).\nAll that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.\nAssuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833356282,"gmtCreate":1629207633246,"gmtModify":1631890055723,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Opens lower and close at high, ain’t that obvious…. In order to go up, it has to come down first.","listText":"Opens lower and close at high, ain’t that obvious…. In order to go up, it has to come down first.","text":"Opens lower and close at high, ain’t that obvious…. In order to go up, it has to come down first.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833356282","repostId":"1146168029","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146168029","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629206834,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146168029?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146168029","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 17) Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.\nDow industrials fall 291","content":"<p>(Aug 17)&nbsp;Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>（8月17日）零售销售降幅大于预期后，股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials fall 291 points, or 0.8%. S&amp;P 500 drops 0.7% to 4,448.21. Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% at 14,650.41.</p><p><blockquote>道指下跌291点，跌幅0.8%。标普500下跌0.7%，至4,448.21点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%，至14,650.41点。</blockquote></p><p> China tech stocks slump&nbsp;as&nbsp;China’s market regulator issued draft rules banning unfair competition among the nation’s online platform operators.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国市场监管机构发布禁止中国在线平台运营商之间不公平竞争的规则草案，中国科技股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792e1772879dc34b07a1aad8629d5ca1\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Dow member Home Depot fell more than 4%&nbsp;after reporting second-quarter results, knocking futures. While quarterly earnings topped estimates, same-store sales rose 4.5% in the period, below the 5% consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount. U.S. same store sales increased by just 3.4%.</p><p><blockquote>道指成分股家得宝公布二季度业绩后跌超4%，打击期货。虽然季度收益超出预期，但同期同店销售额增长4.5%，低于StreetAccount调查的分析师5%的普遍预期。美国同店销售额仅增长3.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4c94ff0a55a39c655244dde44c44ae\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Walmart shares gained&nbsp;0.27% after&nbsp;second-quarter earnings topped estimates. The retailer issued cautious guidance; the company said it will earn between $1.30 and $1.40 a share this quarter while the consensus analyst estimate is $1.32, according to StreetAccount.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价上涨0.零售商发布了谨慎的指引；根据StreetAccount的数据，该公司表示本季度每股收益将在1.30美元至1.40美元之间，而分析师普遍预期为1.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc921ddb3f633aa1f233242ac43da84c\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 21:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 17)&nbsp;Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>（8月17日）零售销售降幅大于预期后，股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials fall 291 points, or 0.8%. S&amp;P 500 drops 0.7% to 4,448.21. Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% at 14,650.41.</p><p><blockquote>道指下跌291点，跌幅0.8%。标普500下跌0.7%，至4,448.21点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%，至14,650.41点。</blockquote></p><p> China tech stocks slump&nbsp;as&nbsp;China’s market regulator issued draft rules banning unfair competition among the nation’s online platform operators.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国市场监管机构发布禁止中国在线平台运营商之间不公平竞争的规则草案，中国科技股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792e1772879dc34b07a1aad8629d5ca1\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Dow member Home Depot fell more than 4%&nbsp;after reporting second-quarter results, knocking futures. While quarterly earnings topped estimates, same-store sales rose 4.5% in the period, below the 5% consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount. U.S. same store sales increased by just 3.4%.</p><p><blockquote>道指成分股家得宝公布二季度业绩后跌超4%，打击期货。虽然季度收益超出预期，但同期同店销售额增长4.5%，低于StreetAccount调查的分析师5%的普遍预期。美国同店销售额仅增长3.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4c94ff0a55a39c655244dde44c44ae\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Walmart shares gained&nbsp;0.27% after&nbsp;second-quarter earnings topped estimates. The retailer issued cautious guidance; the company said it will earn between $1.30 and $1.40 a share this quarter while the consensus analyst estimate is $1.32, according to StreetAccount.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价上涨0.零售商发布了谨慎的指引；根据StreetAccount的数据，该公司表示本季度每股收益将在1.30美元至1.40美元之间，而分析师普遍预期为1.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc921ddb3f633aa1f233242ac43da84c\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146168029","content_text":"(Aug 17) Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.\nDow industrials fall 291 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 drops 0.7% to 4,448.21. Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% at 14,650.41.\nChina tech stocks slump as China’s market regulator issued draft rules banning unfair competition among the nation’s online platform operators.\nDow member Home Depot fell more than 4% after reporting second-quarter results, knocking futures. While quarterly earnings topped estimates, same-store sales rose 4.5% in the period, below the 5% consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount. U.S. same store sales increased by just 3.4%.\n\nWalmart shares gained 0.27% after second-quarter earnings topped estimates. The retailer issued cautious guidance; the company said it will earn between $1.30 and $1.40 a share this quarter while the consensus analyst estimate is $1.32, according to StreetAccount.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839485570,"gmtCreate":1629173982190,"gmtModify":1631890055727,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ofcuz..","listText":"Ofcuz..","text":"Ofcuz..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839485570","repostId":"1133874781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133874781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629164267,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133874781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊的3个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133874781","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazo","content":"<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票今天可能比亚马逊更好的选择的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的表现都很相似，尤其是在过去的一两年里。请参阅下面的滚动一年相关图-越接近+1，股票的每日回报就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了为什么与同行亚马逊相比，苹果公司可能是更好的选择的三个原因。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven将很快站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL与AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后表现出色</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度财报以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增速大幅放缓。亚马逊已经证明，疫情时期对该公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的情况正好相反。虽然更悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但苹果证明他们错了：第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了36%和101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对值来看，不可否认的是，苹果的股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了亚马逊的估值如何远高于苹果，无论是在往绩收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价并不完美的环境中，为人们可能认为更好的股票多付一点钱可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样股票估值似乎过低的时期，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.增长被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，根据Seeking Alpha的数据，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，尽管亚马逊在电子商务和云领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司可能会在明年或2023年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。今年市盈率为25倍，颇具吸引力，我怀疑市场没有正确地将这些机会纳入股价中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票今天可能比亚马逊更好的选择的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的表现都很相似，尤其是在过去的一两年里。请参阅下面的滚动一年相关图-越接近+1，股票的每日回报就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了为什么与同行亚马逊相比，苹果公司可能是更好的选择的三个原因。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven将很快站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL与AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后表现出色</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度财报以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增速大幅放缓。亚马逊已经证明，疫情时期对该公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的情况正好相反。虽然更悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但苹果证明他们错了：第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了36%和101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对值来看，不可否认的是，苹果的股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了亚马逊的估值如何远高于苹果，无论是在往绩收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价并不完美的环境中，为人们可能认为更好的股票多付一点钱可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样股票估值似乎过低的时期，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.增长被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，根据Seeking Alpha的数据，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，尽管亚马逊在电子商务和云领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司可能会在明年或2023年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。今年市盈率为25倍，颇具吸引力，我怀疑市场没有正确地将这些机会纳入股价中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133874781","content_text":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazon or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.\nBut today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel Amazon Maven will soon take the other side of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.\nFigure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.\n#1. Post-pandemic outperformer\nSince reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.\nThe opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.\nFigure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.\n#2. Valuations more appealing\nIn absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).\nIn an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.\nFigure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.\n#3. Underappreciated growth\nLastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.\nThe Cupertino company could be introducing a new mixed reality headset next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839817006,"gmtCreate":1629142334805,"gmtModify":1631890055737,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Na Way! We gonna see u from the moon, cos it’s launching. 🚀&nbsp;","listText":"Na Way! We gonna see u from the moon, cos it’s launching. 🚀&nbsp;","text":"Na Way! We gonna see u from the moon, cos it’s launching. 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839817006","repostId":"1137437693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137437693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629116844,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137437693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>据华尔街称，3只飞涨的股票可能下跌53%至84%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137437693","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/o","content":"<p>  Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote>分析师预计这些飙升的股票将会重挫。<b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.</li>  <li>Though Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.</li> </ul> It's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a></b> bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，疫情和/或轧空对这三家公司的待遇非常好。</li><li>尽管华尔街的价格目标通常可以持保留态度，但这些目标可能是正确的。</li></ul>现在是成为投资者的好时机。在近17个月的时间里，广受关注<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a></b>该指数在2020年3月冠状病毒崩溃期间触底，现已翻了一番。耐心一次又一次地在华尔街带来利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，众所周知，并非每只股票都会成为赢家。据华尔街分析师和投资公司称，根据每家公司的共识目标价，有三只飞涨的股票在未来一年可能会损失53%至84%的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna: Implied downside of 53%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Moderna：隐含下跌53%</b></blockquote></p><p> First up is skyrocketing&nbsp;biotech stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a></b>, which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.</p><p><blockquote>首先是飙升的生物科技股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">莫德纳公司。</a></b>，自2020年初以来已上涨近1,900%。即使在从上周盘中高点回调超过20%后，Moderna的股价仍必须再下跌53%才能达到184.92美元的一致目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能猜到的那样，Moderna升天的原因是其紧急使用授权(EUA)冠状病毒疾病2019(COVID-19)疫苗mRNA-1273的成功。在临床试验中，Moderna的候选疫苗的疫苗效力（VE）约为94%。除了<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>该疫苗的VE为95%，在功效方面没有其他EUA疫苗接近。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的崛起是Moderna的另一大福音。delta的传播性提高了许多发达国家的疫苗接种率，并鼓励了美国。美国食品药品监督管理局将授权为那些免疫系统受损的人注射加强针。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.</p><p><blockquote>最终，Moderna飙升的股价似乎表明，在COVID-19局势好转之前，情况可能会变得更糟，而加强注射将提供比以前预测的更强劲的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> However, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">First</a>, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing.&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>&nbsp;is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a></b> shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Moderna的估值问题是双重的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">第一</a>，新冠疫苗接种的竞争正在加剧，而不是减少。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>在未来几个月内收到EUA是一个不错的选择，并且<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a></b>提高单剂量疫苗的产量应该没有任何问题。我们可能会在2021年看到Moderna的收入高峰年。</blockquote></p><p> The other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.</p><p><blockquote>另一个问题是mRNA-1273是Moderna唯一上市的药物。基于单一疗法的1570亿美元市值可能会也可能不会持续下去，这听起来风险很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dillard's: Implied downside of 55%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Dillard's：隐含下跌55%</b></blockquote></p><p> The next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">Dillard's</a></b>. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>下一只飞涨的股票可能会有点令人惊讶...百货连锁店<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">迪拉德氏</a></b>8月13日星期五，迪拉德的股价创下196美元的历史收盘新高，使其市值突破40亿美元。但分析师对该公司的一致目标价为87.33美元，该百货商店明年可能会降价55%。</blockquote></p><p> If you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.</p><p><blockquote>如果您想知道为什么Dillard的股价在过去一年中上涨了625%，那么其经营业绩将是一个很好的起点。该公司在疫情爆发后大幅削减成本，大力推动直接面向消费者的销售，并严格管理库存。如果没有这些繁重的管理费用，过去两个季度的利润绝对飙升，因为被压抑的需求鼓励消费者走出家门，进入零售店。</blockquote></p><p> Dillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.</p><p><blockquote>迪拉德在提高股东价值方面也做得很好。在截至7月31日的26周内，该公司回购了约140万股股票，总计1.71亿美元。这听起来可能不多，但它使公司的流通股数量减少了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，迪拉德的可交易流通量相对较小，而且是一只被大量卖空的股票。这种组合使其成为轧空的完美目标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Despite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些积极因素，但投资者重要的是要认识到零售百货商店通常增长缓慢且具有周期性。尽管迪拉德的同比比较令人印象深刻，但其2021年26周零售额仅比2019年同期26周零售额高出1%。此外，与2019年相比，2021年同店销售额仅增长4%。虽然毛利率明显较高，但这更多地与成本削减有关，而不是显着的销售吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Though Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迪拉德反抗华尔街的时间可能会比预期的要长一些，但历史表明它没有机会跟上这一步伐。华尔街的价格目标很可能最终会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>: Implied downside of 84%</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>：隐含下行空间84%</b></blockquote></p><p> Sporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.</p><p><blockquote>根据华尔街的一致目标价，最具潜在下行空间的是电影院股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>尽管AMC是今年表现最好的股票之一，但它需要从当前股价下跌84%才能达到每股5.25美元的共识目标。</blockquote></p><p> AMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在一月份获得了巨大的提振，当时该公司通过发行普通股和债务使自己免于破产。一直押注该公司进一步下跌的卖空者对AMC的融资感到措手不及，这导致了恶性轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Today, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.</p><p><blockquote>如今，AMC热情的散户投资者有着相同的目标——即看到另一次轧空。截至7月30日，8585万股被空头持有，几乎占流通股的17%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.</p><p><blockquote>AMC及其散户投资者面临的问题是，基本面始终很重要，AMC的经营业绩和资产负债表简直就是一部恐怖电影。虽然影院容量的增加推动了第二季度销售额的环比增长，但这并不能原谅AMC在过去六个月中消耗了5.765亿美元现金的事实，也不能原谅它距离盈利还有很长的路要走的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表是一个更大的问题。截至6月底，AMC的企业借款为55亿美元，另外还有4.2亿美元的递延租金需要支付。随着该公司的股票发行实际上达到最大限度，AMC将被迫依靠其18.1亿美元的现金和2.12亿美元的循环信贷额度来偿还租金义务和债务。由于其2026年和2027年债券的价格分别为面值的58%和62%，债券持有人明确表示担心AMC将无法保持偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a>'s Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>锦上添花的是我们已经见证了戏剧排他性的减少。例如，AMC与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a>华纳兄弟公司仅提供45天的独家窗口，比大流行前传统的75天独家期减少到90天。</blockquote></p><p> It may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要超过12个月的时间，但AMC确实有望跌回2月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>据华尔街称，3只飞涨的股票可能下跌53%至84%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>据华尔街称，3只飞涨的股票可能下跌53%至84%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 20:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote>分析师预计这些飙升的股票将会重挫。<b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.</li>  <li>Though Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.</li> </ul> It's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a></b> bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，疫情和/或轧空对这三家公司的待遇非常好。</li><li>尽管华尔街的价格目标通常可以持保留态度，但这些目标可能是正确的。</li></ul>现在是成为投资者的好时机。在近17个月的时间里，广受关注<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a></b>该指数在2020年3月冠状病毒崩溃期间触底，现已翻了一番。耐心一次又一次地在华尔街带来利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.</p><p><blockquote>然而，众所周知，并非每只股票都会成为赢家。据华尔街分析师和投资公司称，根据每家公司的共识目标价，有三只飞涨的股票在未来一年可能会损失53%至84%的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moderna: Implied downside of 53%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Moderna：隐含下跌53%</b></blockquote></p><p> First up is skyrocketing&nbsp;biotech stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a></b>, which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.</p><p><blockquote>首先是飙升的生物科技股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">莫德纳公司。</a></b>，自2020年初以来已上涨近1,900%。即使在从上周盘中高点回调超过20%后，Moderna的股价仍必须再下跌53%才能达到184.92美元的一致目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能猜到的那样，Moderna升天的原因是其紧急使用授权(EUA)冠状病毒疾病2019(COVID-19)疫苗mRNA-1273的成功。在临床试验中，Moderna的候选疫苗的疫苗效力（VE）约为94%。除了<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b>该疫苗的VE为95%，在功效方面没有其他EUA疫苗接近。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的崛起是Moderna的另一大福音。delta的传播性提高了许多发达国家的疫苗接种率，并鼓励了美国。美国食品药品监督管理局将授权为那些免疫系统受损的人注射加强针。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.</p><p><blockquote>最终，Moderna飙升的股价似乎表明，在COVID-19局势好转之前，情况可能会变得更糟，而加强注射将提供比以前预测的更强劲的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> However, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">First</a>, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing.&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>&nbsp;is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a></b> shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Moderna的估值问题是双重的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">第一</a>，新冠疫苗接种的竞争正在加剧，而不是减少。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>在未来几个月内收到EUA是一个不错的选择，并且<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a></b>提高单剂量疫苗的产量应该没有任何问题。我们可能会在2021年看到Moderna的收入高峰年。</blockquote></p><p> The other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.</p><p><blockquote>另一个问题是mRNA-1273是Moderna唯一上市的药物。基于单一疗法的1570亿美元市值可能会也可能不会持续下去，这听起来风险很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dillard's: Implied downside of 55%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Dillard's：隐含下跌55%</b></blockquote></p><p> The next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">Dillard's</a></b>. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>下一只飞涨的股票可能会有点令人惊讶...百货连锁店<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">迪拉德氏</a></b>8月13日星期五，迪拉德的股价创下196美元的历史收盘新高，使其市值突破40亿美元。但分析师对该公司的一致目标价为87.33美元，该百货商店明年可能会降价55%。</blockquote></p><p> If you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.</p><p><blockquote>如果您想知道为什么Dillard的股价在过去一年中上涨了625%，那么其经营业绩将是一个很好的起点。该公司在疫情爆发后大幅削减成本，大力推动直接面向消费者的销售，并严格管理库存。如果没有这些繁重的管理费用，过去两个季度的利润绝对飙升，因为被压抑的需求鼓励消费者走出家门，进入零售店。</blockquote></p><p> Dillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.</p><p><blockquote>迪拉德在提高股东价值方面也做得很好。在截至7月31日的26周内，该公司回购了约140万股股票，总计1.71亿美元。这听起来可能不多，但它使公司的流通股数量减少了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p> It's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>还值得指出的是，迪拉德的可交易流通量相对较小，而且是一只被大量卖空的股票。这种组合使其成为轧空的完美目标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Despite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些积极因素，但投资者重要的是要认识到零售百货商店通常增长缓慢且具有周期性。尽管迪拉德的同比比较令人印象深刻，但其2021年26周零售额仅比2019年同期26周零售额高出1%。此外，与2019年相比，2021年同店销售额仅增长4%。虽然毛利率明显较高，但这更多地与成本削减有关，而不是显着的销售吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Though Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迪拉德反抗华尔街的时间可能会比预期的要长一些，但历史表明它没有机会跟上这一步伐。华尔街的价格目标很可能最终会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>: Implied downside of 84%</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>：隐含下行空间84%</b></blockquote></p><p> Sporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.</p><p><blockquote>根据华尔街的一致目标价，最具潜在下行空间的是电影院股<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>尽管AMC是今年表现最好的股票之一，但它需要从当前股价下跌84%才能达到每股5.25美元的共识目标。</blockquote></p><p> AMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在一月份获得了巨大的提振，当时该公司通过发行普通股和债务使自己免于破产。一直押注该公司进一步下跌的卖空者对AMC的融资感到措手不及，这导致了恶性轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Today, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.</p><p><blockquote>如今，AMC热情的散户投资者有着相同的目标——即看到另一次轧空。截至7月30日，8585万股被空头持有，几乎占流通股的17%。</blockquote></p><p> The problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.</p><p><blockquote>AMC及其散户投资者面临的问题是，基本面始终很重要，AMC的经营业绩和资产负债表简直就是一部恐怖电影。虽然影院容量的增加推动了第二季度销售额的环比增长，但这并不能原谅AMC在过去六个月中消耗了5.765亿美元现金的事实，也不能原谅它距离盈利还有很长的路要走的事实。</blockquote></p><p> The balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表是一个更大的问题。截至6月底，AMC的企业借款为55亿美元，另外还有4.2亿美元的递延租金需要支付。随着该公司的股票发行实际上达到最大限度，AMC将被迫依靠其18.1亿美元的现金和2.12亿美元的循环信贷额度来偿还租金义务和债务。由于其2026年和2027年债券的价格分别为面值的58%和62%，债券持有人明确表示担心AMC将无法保持偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> The icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a>'s Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>锦上添花的是我们已经见证了戏剧排他性的减少。例如，AMC与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a>华纳兄弟公司仅提供45天的独家窗口，比大流行前传统的75天独家期减少到90天。</blockquote></p><p> It may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要超过12个月的时间，但AMC确实有望跌回2月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDS":"狄乐百货","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","JNJ":"强生",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137437693","content_text":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.\nThough Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.\n\nIt's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed S&P 500 bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.\nHowever, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.\nModerna: Implied downside of 53%\nFirst up is skyrocketing biotech stock Moderna, Inc., which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.\nAs you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.\nThe rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.\nUltimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.\nHowever, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. First, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing. Novavax is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and Johnson & Johnson shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.\nThe other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.\nDillard's: Implied downside of 55%\nThe next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain Dillard's. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.\nIf you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.\nDillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.\nIt's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.\nDespite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.\nThough Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.\nAMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 84%\nSporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock AMC Entertainment. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.\nAMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.\nToday, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.\nThe problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.\nThe balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.\nThe icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with AT&T Inc's Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.\nIt may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"DDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830396417,"gmtCreate":1629008139739,"gmtModify":1631890055740,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s all meet at the moon!","listText":"Let’s all meet at the moon!","text":"Let’s all meet at the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830396417","repostId":"2159211727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894048680,"gmtCreate":1628779494540,"gmtModify":1631888633482,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087900337749310","authorIdStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">$Albemarle(ALB)$</a>再接再厉继续努力，迈向上升","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">$Albemarle(ALB)$</a>再接再厉继续努力，迈向上升","text":"$Albemarle(ALB)$再接再厉继续努力，迈向上升","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5e5e3ad2b28a576e660590f4741474f","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894048680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":811792486,"gmtCreate":1630344025845,"gmtModify":1704958872409,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>not only USA, cud have franchising at S.E.A","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>not only USA, cud have franchising at S.E.A","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$not only USA, cud have franchising at S.E.A","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f342494cb2e81047f9a38485409e346","width":"4032","height":"2268"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811792486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899295081,"gmtCreate":1628190957543,"gmtModify":1633752812979,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> Won’t cut, justsit n wait 🚀 is launching. APES!!! HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> Won’t cut, justsit n wait 🚀 is launching. APES!!! HODL","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ Won’t cut, justsit n wait 🚀 is launching. APES!!! HODL","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1f147728e88af05f57867d38a6e428","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899295081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175800257,"gmtCreate":1627017861379,"gmtModify":1633768720881,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>tgif","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>tgif","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$tgif","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c56deeb060aacd9400fddc51c6b0b973","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175800257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811796231,"gmtCreate":1630343814723,"gmtModify":1704958870335,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Buy in 155,157,159,161,163 support support support!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Buy in 155,157,159,161,163 support support support!!!","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Buy in 155,157,159,161,163 support support support!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811796231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896297297,"gmtCreate":1628583594019,"gmtModify":1633745972203,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah!!!! Love that launch!","listText":"Yeah!!!! Love that launch!","text":"Yeah!!!! Love that launch!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896297297","repostId":"1116005404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116005404","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628582673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116005404?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC shares rose 7% in premarket trading.<blockquote>AMC股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116005404","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC shares rose 7% in premarket trading.\nAMC Entertainment reported a narrower than expected loss fo","content":"<p>AMC&nbsp;shares rose 7% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/692b6fc550595ea189d7b6697732bdac\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMC Entertainment&nbsp;reported&nbsp;a narrower than expected loss for the second quarter while revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线公布第二季度亏损窄于预期，而营收则超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMC&nbsp;will begin accepting apex cryptocurrency&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;as payment for move tickets and concessions by the end of this&nbsp;year.</p><p><blockquote>AMC将开始接受apex加密货币<b>比特币</b>作为今年年底前移动门票和优惠的付款。</blockquote></p><p> “By year end, we will have the information technology system in place to accept Bitcoin as payment for movie tickets and concessions if purchased online at all of our U.S. theatres,” AMC Entertainment CEO&nbsp;<b>Adam Aron</b>&nbsp;said on&nbsp;the Q2 earnings call on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线首席执行官表示：“到今年年底，我们将建立信息技术系统，接受比特币作为在美国所有影院在线购买的电影票和优惠的付款方式。”<b>亚当·阿伦</b>周一在第二季度财报看涨期权上表示。</blockquote></p><p> Aron added that AMC Entertainment is in the preliminary stages of exploring how else the company can participate in the new “burgeoning cryptocurrency universe.”</p><p><blockquote>阿伦补充说，AMC院线正处于探索该公司如何参与新的“新兴加密货币世界”的初步阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC shares rose 7% in premarket trading.<blockquote>AMC股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC shares rose 7% in premarket trading.<blockquote>AMC股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 16:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC&nbsp;shares rose 7% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价在盘前交易中上涨7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/692b6fc550595ea189d7b6697732bdac\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMC Entertainment&nbsp;reported&nbsp;a narrower than expected loss for the second quarter while revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线公布第二季度亏损窄于预期，而营收则超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMC&nbsp;will begin accepting apex cryptocurrency&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;as payment for move tickets and concessions by the end of this&nbsp;year.</p><p><blockquote>AMC将开始接受apex加密货币<b>比特币</b>作为今年年底前移动门票和优惠的付款。</blockquote></p><p> “By year end, we will have the information technology system in place to accept Bitcoin as payment for movie tickets and concessions if purchased online at all of our U.S. theatres,” AMC Entertainment CEO&nbsp;<b>Adam Aron</b>&nbsp;said on&nbsp;the Q2 earnings call on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线首席执行官表示：“到今年年底，我们将建立信息技术系统，接受比特币作为在美国所有影院在线购买的电影票和优惠的付款方式。”<b>亚当·阿伦</b>周一在第二季度财报看涨期权上表示。</blockquote></p><p> Aron added that AMC Entertainment is in the preliminary stages of exploring how else the company can participate in the new “burgeoning cryptocurrency universe.”</p><p><blockquote>阿伦补充说，AMC院线正处于探索该公司如何参与新的“新兴加密货币世界”的初步阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116005404","content_text":"AMC shares rose 7% in premarket trading.\nAMC Entertainment reported a narrower than expected loss for the second quarter while revenue topped estimates.\nAMC will begin accepting apex cryptocurrency Bitcoin as payment for move tickets and concessions by the end of this year.\n“By year end, we will have the information technology system in place to accept Bitcoin as payment for movie tickets and concessions if purchased online at all of our U.S. theatres,” AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron said on the Q2 earnings call on Monday.\nAron added that AMC Entertainment is in the preliminary stages of exploring how else the company can participate in the new “burgeoning cryptocurrency universe.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889896455,"gmtCreate":1631133109277,"gmtModify":1631884401490,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$</a>Options Options Diso Disco….. 💃🕺&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">$Albemarle(ALB)$</a>恭喜更上一乘","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">$Albemarle(ALB)$</a>恭喜更上一乘","text":"$Albemarle(ALB)$恭喜更上一乘","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ddb813260beda94109bf14034f82840","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893245556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":899230657,"gmtCreate":1628192877879,"gmtModify":1633752811220,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For the greener generations! ♻️&nbsp;","listText":"For the greener generations! ♻️&nbsp;","text":"For the greener generations! ♻️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899230657","repostId":"1173170520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880548664,"gmtCreate":1631067611558,"gmtModify":1631884402147,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$</a>Woops GoGoGo!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$</a>Woops GoGoGo!","text":"$AMC 20210924 30.0 PUT(AMC)$Woops GoGoGo!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19fbd3e0d408ec5efa7e6b6fb86e252c","width":"750","height":"1300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880548664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899679790,"gmtCreate":1628183139210,"gmtModify":1633752832042,"author":{"id":"4087900337749310","authorId":"4087900337749310","name":"Ryanlah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f705250fa39c7ed493cd83d018249e90","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087900337749310","idStr":"4087900337749310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is the direction 🚀 and see the rest from the 🌙moon.","listText":"This is the direction 🚀 and see the rest from the 🌙moon.","text":"This is the direction 🚀 and see the rest from the 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