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jetsetyeo

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2021-12-04

Time to buy in?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-08

$Apple(AAPL)$why you raise so much after I sell? [Cry]

2021-12-08

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$

2021-11-02

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，当通货膨胀飙升时，这是最好的企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该买什么</blockquote>

2021-09-19

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ coming down

2021-10-22

$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$nice

2021-10-13

$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$ negative net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive about this stock to cause the last few spikes?

2021-12-25

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$ when is it going to get better

2021-09-22

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$

2021-10-17

$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$too late to buy?

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>&nbsp;time to buy in?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>&nbsp;time to buy in?&nbsp;","text":"$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$ time to buy in?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568d1dcabbbc5a2a2bcefe29af33bdac","width":"1080","height":"2977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692022314","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698506065,"gmtCreate":1640431711010,"gmtModify":1640431711138,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to get better","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to 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You might as well profit from it.High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted tw","content":"<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你还不如从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的一个严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在 20 世纪 70 年代两位数通货膨胀率时期管理着股票投资组合，并且对于消费者价格飙升时应该持有什么有很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在 1981 年写给伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）轻松提高价格的能力，以及 2）承接更多业务的能力，而不必花太多钱才能做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，目标是投资具有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速了解一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克（NKE）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意为勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员的标志性装备支付高价。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现了远高于 30% 的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中捕捉其产品的全部价格。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到约40%。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升，利润率也可能继续扩大。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年迄今为止，耐克股价上涨了约 19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果（AAPL）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高价硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品都是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>顾客根本无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这家科技巨头在定价方面有了更大的自由度。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的 M1 芯片将逐步取代英特尔在每台 Mac 中的 CPU，这凸显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上涨的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会造成销量的重大损失。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特允许苹果在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司投资组合中的份额增长到 40%，这是有充分理由的： 该公司在所有经济周期中都能保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约 13%，交易价格接近每股 150 美元。但是，如果你对加入目前的水平持观望态度，有些应用程序可能会因为你注册而免费分享苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（列维）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迪恩·贝尔通塞尔J/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增长营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了 41%，调整后毛利率提高了 390 个基点，达到 57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始根据通货膨胀主动调整定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi 股价在 2021 年上涨超过 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永恒资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司会兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最佳策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个值得永远持有的通胀避风港——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格上涨多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而巴菲特的好朋友比尔-盖茨恰好是美国最大的私人农田所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新的平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>您将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，您还将从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它不提供任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，当通货膨胀飙升时，这是最好的企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该买什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，当通货膨胀飙升时，这是最好的企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该买什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 17:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你还不如从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的一个严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在 20 世纪 70 年代两位数通货膨胀率时期管理着股票投资组合，并且对于消费者价格飙升时应该持有什么有很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在 1981 年写给伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）轻松提高价格的能力，以及 2）承接更多业务的能力，而不必花太多钱才能做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，目标是投资具有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速了解一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克（NKE）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意为勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员的标志性装备支付高价。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现了远高于 30% 的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中捕捉其产品的全部价格。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到约40%。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升，利润率也可能继续扩大。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年迄今为止，耐克股价上涨了约 19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果（AAPL）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高价硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品都是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>顾客根本无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这家科技巨头在定价方面有了更大的自由度。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的 M1 芯片将逐步取代英特尔在每台 Mac 中的 CPU，这凸显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上涨的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会造成销量的重大损失。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特允许苹果在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司投资组合中的份额增长到 40%，这是有充分理由的： 该公司在所有经济周期中都能保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约 13%，交易价格接近每股 150 美元。但是，如果你对加入目前的水平持观望态度，有些应用程序可能会因为你注册而免费分享苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（列维）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迪恩·贝尔通塞尔J/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增长营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了 41%，调整后毛利率提高了 390 个基点，达到 57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始根据通货膨胀主动调整定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi 股价在 2021 年上涨超过 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永恒资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司会兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最佳策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个值得永远持有的通胀避风港——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格上涨多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而巴菲特的好朋友比尔-盖茨恰好是美国最大的私人农田所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新的平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>您将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，您还将从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它不提供任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LEVI":"李维斯","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","NKE":"耐克","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180020937","content_text":"Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.\n\nHigh inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.\nBut fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.\nBuffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.\nIn a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.\nIn other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.\nLet’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.\nNike (NKE)\nTY Lim/Shutterstock\nNike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.\nCustomers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.\nDespite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.\nThe company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.\nManagement believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.\nAmazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.\nNike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.\nApple (AAPL)\nVytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock\nGlobal demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.\nStrong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.\nCustomers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.\nThe company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.\nApple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.\nWarren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.\nApple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.\nLevi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)\ndean bertoncelj/Shutterstock\nA market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.\nSpecifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.\nIn the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.\nIn fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.\nThe company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.\nLevi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.\nThe ultimate 'forever asset'?\nMNStudio/Shutterstock\nWarren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.\nBut forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.\nBut there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.\nNo matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.\nThese days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.\nYou’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.\nThis article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"LEVI":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840949836,"gmtCreate":1635579563342,"gmtModify":1635579563342,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"FOMO","listText":"FOMO","text":"FOMO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840949836","repostId":"2179245604","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853766099,"gmtCreate":1634847702675,"gmtModify":1634847702869,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","text":"$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09326cb866c97d60db920ee503139e56","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853766099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827311238,"gmtCreate":1634412745670,"gmtModify":1634412745828,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","text":"$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$too late to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a939d273ee29d51b5ec25c86d64db6","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827311238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822652018,"gmtCreate":1634130128692,"gmtModify":1634130128757,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","text":"$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$ negative net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive about this stock to cause the last few spikes?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede7f267a8801ff40a537599086110cc","width":"1080","height":"3100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822652018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822651174,"gmtCreate":1634129777690,"gmtModify":1634129777690,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;up up up","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcce6f8b2dfa3dee9d4040abb2f6560","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822651174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826554617,"gmtCreate":1634042190140,"gmtModify":1634042197130,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;still optimistic&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;still optimistic&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ still optimistic","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c017997936944a1dd79676900b8c8d3e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826554617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826555434,"gmtCreate":1634042130631,"gmtModify":1634042194666,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601628\">$China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628)$</a>&nbsp;going up?tike to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601628\">$China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628)$</a>&nbsp;going up?tike to buy?&nbsp;","text":"$China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628)$ going up?tike to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eef3a5316e8f6c93a10ac9a0935ac45","width":"1080","height":"2536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826555434","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826555808,"gmtCreate":1634042083753,"gmtModify":1634042191945,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Insurance sector going upside?&nbsp;","listText":"Insurance sector going upside?&nbsp;","text":"Insurance sector going upside?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826555808","repostId":"821224333","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":821224333,"gmtCreate":1633749916922,"gmtModify":1633751613003,"author":{"id":"3579235350711747","authorId":"3579235350711747","name":"财经壹些事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fe0218783737b72c056ec92edbe76a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579235350711747","idStr":"3579235350711747"},"themes":[],"title":"保险板块迎久违大涨 四季度多重因素交织","htmlText":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","listText":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","text":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821224333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828414135,"gmtCreate":1633935136984,"gmtModify":1633935136984,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89479b0c48969a1f0056ca85a2b5f17a","width":"1080","height":"2126"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828414135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828800932,"gmtCreate":1633876998285,"gmtModify":1633876998285,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>niceeee 😊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>niceeee 😊","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$niceeee 😊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae017f8bf3ad64ff38c9305fb91db529","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828800932","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869403134,"gmtCreate":1632312399228,"gmtModify":1632801342422,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2a1139eaa8128c087baae8a28d5365","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869403134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887285196,"gmtCreate":1632046194715,"gmtModify":1632803143383,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ coming down","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd1d94e1bd8b19bdad07a703d233afe","width":"1080","height":"2213"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887285196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887286412,"gmtCreate":1632045932136,"gmtModify":1632803144955,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","listText":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","text":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887286412","repostId":"1157890009","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157890009","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631877276,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157890009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 19:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：地心引力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157890009","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and sc","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).</li>  <li>The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</li>  <li>Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从利润可持续性和可扩展性的角度分析了苹果（AAPL）。</li><li>本分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：资本回报率（“ROCE”）和资本边际效率（MROCE）。</li><li>结果表明，尽管AAPL过去和现在都获得了天文数字般的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免的阶段。</li><li>考虑到其极高的 ROCE 及其估值，AAPL 仍然代表着可靠的长期投资，我的最终结论是持有评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了苹果（AAPL），重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。本分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：投资资本回报率（“ROCE”）和边际投资资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE 和 MROCE 是分析企业的两个最重要的指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。罗斯告诉我们，到目前为止，这项业务已经或正在盈利。MROCE 对盈利能力可能走向提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，尽管AAPL过去和现在都获得了天文数字般的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免的阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。嗯，回报递减对所有经济活动也起到了引力的作用，如果不是更严重的话。近年来，回报率下降的严重性开始赶上苹果公司的巨头，尽管投资者不必太惊慌。考虑到其极高的 ROCE 和合理的估值，即使考虑到回报不断递减，AAPL 仍然是一项有吸引力的投资。因此，在当前情况下，我对这只股票的最终判断是持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司的护城河在于规模和用户忠诚度。例如，下图显示了2007年至2018年苹果iPhone在全球的年度销量（单位：百万）。可以看出，在2018财年，苹果售出了超过2.17亿部iPhone。近年来，iPhone的销量明显趋于稳定，指数级增长的日子已经结束。不过，投资者不必过于担心 iPhone 销量本身的稳定（iPhone 目前仍是苹果公司最赚钱的产品）。投资者需要考察的是，iPhone（或其他AAPL设备）带来的网络效应是否已经达到其可扩展性极限，这将在下文讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f97ee5d85cf7fd736cc8140b9c94c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista 2007年至2018年苹果iPhone全球销量（单位：百万）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着越来越多的人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值——至少在某一点上是这样。网络概念没有什么新东西。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段还连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要大得多）；B）网络越大，切换成本越高（如果每个人都用传真机，而你不想用，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，到了某一点。在某个时候，重力总是会赶上，回报开始减少。以铁路为例，如果已经修建了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在修建下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅需要考察ROCE，同样重要的是，考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们网络效应是否还处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经度过了可扩展的临界点，开始看到收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看到回报递减的严重性是否已经赶上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，人们会直观地期望AAPL提供的服务享受完美的可扩展性。因为苹果公司的商业模式得益于自我维持的正反馈循环。如上图所示，一旦企业用iPhone吸引了足够多的用户，并启动了一个生态系统，网络效应就会发挥作用并自我放大。这个网络中更多的用户将导致用户和设备之间更方便的共享和交流，更多的附加值，更准确的推荐、搜索结果等。这些好处将使网络变得更好，对其用户和客户更有价值；这反过来将吸引更多的新用户加入并购买其新设备；这将再次带来更多用户和更大的网络。</blockquote></p><p> If you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有同样的直觉，那么你会对这篇文章的结果感到惊讶。近年来的MROCE结果实际上表明，回报递减的严重性正在赶上AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（「ROCE」）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>ROCE 代表资本回报率。请注意，ROCE 不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报率，因此提供了企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润的见解。对于像 AAPL 这样的企业，我考虑资本实际使用的以下项目：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、流动资金，包括应付账款、应收款项、存货。这些是他们业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.财产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于像AAPL这样的企业来说是必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。如您所见，在过去十年中，它能够保持天文数字的 ROCE 水平。本世纪初这一比例为450%，自2016年以来，近年来仍徘徊在平均152%左右。为了客观地看待问题，下图将 AAPL 的 ROCE 与其他 FAAMG 股票进行了比较--这是一组最能利用网络效应的典型股票。可以看出，AAPL 仍然在这群超越者中获得了最高的竞争力 ROCE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcbd3c49fa185cf29b726c7651b7e57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a95831d57c9cbc7eeb5307ff0369ee7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引入边际资本回报率（「边际资本回报率」）</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE，一个同样重要的概念是使用资本的边际回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE 和 MROCE 是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。罗斯告诉我们，到目前为止，这项业务已经或正在盈利。MROCE 对盈利能力可能走向提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>给不熟悉这个概念的读者一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰-梅纳德-凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）首先明确表达了这一概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。只要人性没有发生任何根本性的改变，回报递减对所有经济活动也会产生类似重力的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这个概念。只要股东在寻求利润，上市公司就会首先将资金投入回报率最高的项目（即，先挑选最低的苹果，或者先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源以高回报率进行投资——这是企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以稍低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源拿走了，依此类推。最后一批投资的资金可能会获得仅高于资本成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示的下降MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论的ROCE和公司报告是指这条曲线的平均值——对所有批次投资的回报进行平均。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们到目前为止，企业将资源转化为利润的效率有多高——但它的局限性是，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者来说同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们当下一批资源投入时，业务将产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，投资的梦想企业将是一个享有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。从每一批投入的资源中获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦想生意。我之前提到过，回报递减对所有经济活动来说就像重力一样——因为它们确实如此。没有任何企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报的同时保持不变的增长。在某个时候，重力总是赶上，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL’s MROCE</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司的MROCE</b></blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资于a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，以及B）仍处于可扩展阶段的业务（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）。不幸的是，如下图所示，AAPL似乎已经过了可扩展性的临界点，并开始看到近年来的回报递减。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来 AAPL 的 MROCE 和 ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。第二，每年计算收益。第三，计算了逐年占用资本的增量。同样，也计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算了增量收益和增量资本之间的比率，以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现较大波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> The results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示的结果显示，在现阶段，APPL一直保持着明显低于平均ROCE的MROCE。如上所述，近年来ROCE平均为152%，MROCE平均为45%。而且这种差异太大，不可能是由财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明，AAPL已经开始进入收益递减阶段——重力开始迎头赶上。如果目前的 MROCE 继续下去，苹果公司的 ROCE 将从目前的水平逐渐下降，并收敛到 45%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5659d7a6a1d5b6090aa9de2f13acca0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>But no need to panic yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但现在还没有必要恐慌</b></blockquote></p><p> However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，AAPL一开始就有非常高的ROCE。即使其高 ROCE 放缓并最终收敛至 45%，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，它的盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b33ca92602b6d555c2e67e21f4127b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>其次，AAPL 目前的估值非常合理，无论是绝对值还是相对值。从下图可以看出，在目前的价格水平下，AAPL 的 FW PE 约为 28.6 倍，是 FAAMG 包中最低的。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表还比较了根据 ROCE 调整后的 AAPL 估值与同行的估值。孤立地讨论估值而不根据业务质量进行调整是没有意义的。因此，该图显示了通过简单地将市盈率除以 ROCE 来调整后的估值。如图所示，其调整后的估值在 FAAMG 包中更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最后，橙色条显示了 AAPL 的 ROCE 最终放缓至 45% 时的调整后估值。由此可见，即使发生这种情况，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，AAPL 的 ROCE 调整后估值仍然相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df451c670c1a6f0343418f5914f80b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425296098ce22a839c9dd99de3363e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final thought</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和最后的思考</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了AAPL，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。本分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：投资资本回报率（“ROCE”）和边际投资资本回报率（“MROCE”）。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。罗斯告诉我们，到目前为止，这项业务已经或正在盈利。MROCE 对盈利能力可能走向提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.</li>  <li>But the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>And second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>Given the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROCE过去平均约为150%以上，是FAAMG同行中最高的。</li><li>但近年来，MROCE 的平均增长率为 45%。因此，这一结果表明，递减的回报开始赶上 AAPL。MROCE和ROCE之间的差异太大，不会是由财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。</li></ul><ul><li>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，即使其高 ROCE 放缓并最终收敛至 45%，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，它的盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力。</li><li>其次，即使在 ROCE 减速之后，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，AAPL 的 ROCE 调整后估值仍然相当合理。</li><li>考虑到上述盈利能力和估值的考虑，在当前情况下，我对这只股票的最终判断是持有评级。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：地心引力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：地心引力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 19:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).</li>  <li>The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</li>  <li>Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从利润可持续性和可扩展性的角度分析了苹果（AAPL）。</li><li>本分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：资本回报率（“ROCE”）和资本边际效率（MROCE）。</li><li>结果表明，尽管AAPL过去和现在都获得了天文数字般的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免的阶段。</li><li>考虑到其极高的 ROCE 及其估值，AAPL 仍然代表着可靠的长期投资，我的最终结论是持有评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了苹果（AAPL），重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。本分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：投资资本回报率（“ROCE”）和边际投资资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE 和 MROCE 是分析企业的两个最重要的指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。罗斯告诉我们，到目前为止，这项业务已经或正在盈利。MROCE 对盈利能力可能走向提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</p><p><blockquote>结果表明，尽管AAPL过去和现在都获得了天文数字般的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免的阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。嗯，回报递减对所有经济活动也起到了引力的作用，如果不是更严重的话。近年来，回报率下降的严重性开始赶上苹果公司的巨头，尽管投资者不必太惊慌。考虑到其极高的 ROCE 和合理的估值，即使考虑到回报不断递减，AAPL 仍然是一项有吸引力的投资。因此，在当前情况下，我对这只股票的最终判断是持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司的护城河在于规模和用户忠诚度。例如，下图显示了2007年至2018年苹果iPhone在全球的年度销量（单位：百万）。可以看出，在2018财年，苹果售出了超过2.17亿部iPhone。近年来，iPhone的销量明显趋于稳定，指数级增长的日子已经结束。不过，投资者不必过于担心 iPhone 销量本身的稳定（iPhone 目前仍是苹果公司最赚钱的产品）。投资者需要考察的是，iPhone（或其他AAPL设备）带来的网络效应是否已经达到其可扩展性极限，这将在下文讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f97ee5d85cf7fd736cc8140b9c94c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista 2007年至2018年苹果iPhone全球销量（单位：百万）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着越来越多的人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值——至少在某一点上是这样。网络概念没有什么新东西。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段还连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要大得多）；B）网络越大，切换成本越高（如果每个人都用传真机，而你不想用，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，到了某一点。在某个时候，重力总是会赶上，回报开始减少。以铁路为例，如果已经修建了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在修建下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅需要考察ROCE，同样重要的是，考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们网络效应是否还处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经度过了可扩展的临界点，开始看到收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看到回报递减的严重性是否已经赶上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，人们会直观地期望AAPL提供的服务享受完美的可扩展性。因为苹果公司的商业模式得益于自我维持的正反馈循环。如上图所示，一旦企业用iPhone吸引了足够多的用户，并启动了一个生态系统，网络效应就会发挥作用并自我放大。这个网络中更多的用户将导致用户和设备之间更方便的共享和交流，更多的附加值，更准确的推荐、搜索结果等。这些好处将使网络变得更好，对其用户和客户更有价值；这反过来将吸引更多的新用户加入并购买其新设备；这将再次带来更多用户和更大的网络。</blockquote></p><p> If you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有同样的直觉，那么你会对这篇文章的结果感到惊讶。近年来的MROCE结果实际上表明，回报递减的严重性正在赶上AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（「ROCE」）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>ROCE 代表资本回报率。请注意，ROCE 不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报率，因此提供了企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润的见解。对于像 AAPL 这样的企业，我考虑资本实际使用的以下项目：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、流动资金，包括应付账款、应收款项、存货。这些是他们业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.财产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于像AAPL这样的企业来说是必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。如您所见，在过去十年中，它能够保持天文数字的 ROCE 水平。本世纪初这一比例为450%，自2016年以来，近年来仍徘徊在平均152%左右。为了客观地看待问题，下图将 AAPL 的 ROCE 与其他 FAAMG 股票进行了比较--这是一组最能利用网络效应的典型股票。可以看出，AAPL 仍然在这群超越者中获得了最高的竞争力 ROCE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcbd3c49fa185cf29b726c7651b7e57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a95831d57c9cbc7eeb5307ff0369ee7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引入边际资本回报率（「边际资本回报率」）</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE，一个同样重要的概念是使用资本的边际回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE 和 MROCE 是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。罗斯告诉我们，到目前为止，这项业务已经或正在盈利。MROCE 对盈利能力可能走向提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>给不熟悉这个概念的读者一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰-梅纳德-凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）首先明确表达了这一概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。只要人性没有发生任何根本性的改变，回报递减对所有经济活动也会产生类似重力的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这个概念。只要股东在寻求利润，上市公司就会首先将资金投入回报率最高的项目（即，先挑选最低的苹果，或者先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源以高回报率进行投资——这是企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以稍低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源拿走了，依此类推。最后一批投资的资金可能会获得仅高于资本成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示的下降MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论的ROCE和公司报告是指这条曲线的平均值——对所有批次投资的回报进行平均。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们到目前为止，企业将资源转化为利润的效率有多高——但它的局限性是，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者来说同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们当下一批资源投入时，业务将产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，投资的梦想企业将是一个享有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。从每一批投入的资源中获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦想生意。我之前提到过，回报递减对所有经济活动来说就像重力一样——因为它们确实如此。没有任何企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报的同时保持不变的增长。在某个时候，重力总是赶上，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL’s MROCE</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司的MROCE</b></blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资于a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，以及B）仍处于可扩展阶段的业务（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）。不幸的是，如下图所示，AAPL似乎已经过了可扩展性的临界点，并开始看到近年来的回报递减。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表显示了近年来 AAPL 的 MROCE 和 ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。第二，每年计算收益。第三，计算了逐年占用资本的增量。同样，也计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算了增量收益和增量资本之间的比率，以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现较大波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> The results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示的结果显示，在现阶段，APPL一直保持着明显低于平均ROCE的MROCE。如上所述，近年来ROCE平均为152%，MROCE平均为45%。而且这种差异太大，不可能是由财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明，AAPL已经开始进入收益递减阶段——重力开始迎头赶上。如果目前的 MROCE 继续下去，苹果公司的 ROCE 将从目前的水平逐渐下降，并收敛到 45%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5659d7a6a1d5b6090aa9de2f13acca0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>But no need to panic yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但现在还没有必要恐慌</b></blockquote></p><p> However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，AAPL一开始就有非常高的ROCE。即使其高 ROCE 放缓并最终收敛至 45%，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，它的盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b33ca92602b6d555c2e67e21f4127b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>其次，AAPL 目前的估值非常合理，无论是绝对值还是相对值。从下图可以看出，在目前的价格水平下，AAPL 的 FW PE 约为 28.6 倍，是 FAAMG 包中最低的。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表还比较了根据 ROCE 调整后的 AAPL 估值与同行的估值。孤立地讨论估值而不根据业务质量进行调整是没有意义的。因此，该图显示了通过简单地将市盈率除以 ROCE 来调整后的估值。如图所示，其调整后的估值在 FAAMG 包中更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最后，橙色条显示了 AAPL 的 ROCE 最终放缓至 45% 时的调整后估值。由此可见，即使发生这种情况，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，AAPL 的 ROCE 调整后估值仍然相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df451c670c1a6f0343418f5914f80b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425296098ce22a839c9dd99de3363e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者和寻求阿尔法数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final thought</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和最后的思考</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了AAPL，重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。本分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：投资资本回报率（“ROCE”）和边际投资资本回报率（“MROCE”）。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。罗斯告诉我们，到目前为止，这项业务已经或正在盈利。MROCE 对盈利能力可能走向提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.</li>  <li>But the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>And second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>Given the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROCE过去平均约为150%以上，是FAAMG同行中最高的。</li><li>但近年来，MROCE 的平均增长率为 45%。因此，这一结果表明，递减的回报开始赶上 AAPL。MROCE和ROCE之间的差异太大，不会是由财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。</li></ul><ul><li>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，即使其高 ROCE 放缓并最终收敛至 45%，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，它的盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力。</li><li>其次，即使在 ROCE 减速之后，与其他 FAAMG 股票相比，AAPL 的 ROCE 调整后估值仍然相当合理。</li><li>考虑到上述盈利能力和估值的考虑，在当前情况下，我对这只股票的最终判断是持有评级。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455586-apple-gravity-is-catching-up-on-this-juggernaut\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455586-apple-gravity-is-catching-up-on-this-juggernaut","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157890009","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).\nThe results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.\nGiven its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.\nWarren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.\nThe moat and the network effects\nAAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.\nSource: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.\nThe network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nIn theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.\nIf you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nAAPL’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nThe results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nBut no need to panic yet\nHowever, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nSecondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.\nThe next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.\nAnd finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nThe ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.\nBut the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.\n\n\nHowever, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.\nAnd second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.\nGiven the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888557407,"gmtCreate":1631511108609,"gmtModify":1631885568387,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;go up soon.. Like the daily cases&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;go up soon.. Like the daily cases&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ go up soon.. Like the daily cases [真香]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0248174d64c80d446c8f25bb557070ee","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888557407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":608973574,"gmtCreate":1638608746837,"gmtModify":1638608746905,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to buy in?&nbsp;","listText":"Time to buy in?&nbsp;","text":"Time to buy in?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608973574","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602396913,"gmtCreate":1638968872346,"gmtModify":1638968918217,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>why you raise so much after I sell?&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>why you raise so much after I sell?&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$why you raise so much after I sell? [Cry]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf445c1259bb61c39b84ef6f2c02fa3","width":"1080","height":"3064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602396913","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602398257,"gmtCreate":1638968741226,"gmtModify":1638968915861,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47369ff7ab6c42e3f29de4b032523cf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602398257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841917054,"gmtCreate":1635868037094,"gmtModify":1635868037160,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841917054","repostId":"2180020937","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2180020937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635846331,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2180020937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，当通货膨胀飙升时，这是最好的企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该买什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180020937","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted tw","content":"<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你还不如从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的一个严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在 20 世纪 70 年代两位数通货膨胀率时期管理着股票投资组合，并且对于消费者价格飙升时应该持有什么有很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在 1981 年写给伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）轻松提高价格的能力，以及 2）承接更多业务的能力，而不必花太多钱才能做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，目标是投资具有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速了解一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克（NKE）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意为勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员的标志性装备支付高价。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现了远高于 30% 的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中捕捉其产品的全部价格。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到约40%。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升，利润率也可能继续扩大。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年迄今为止，耐克股价上涨了约 19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果（AAPL）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高价硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品都是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>顾客根本无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这家科技巨头在定价方面有了更大的自由度。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的 M1 芯片将逐步取代英特尔在每台 Mac 中的 CPU，这凸显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上涨的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会造成销量的重大损失。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特允许苹果在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司投资组合中的份额增长到 40%，这是有充分理由的： 该公司在所有经济周期中都能保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约 13%，交易价格接近每股 150 美元。但是，如果你对加入目前的水平持观望态度，有些应用程序可能会因为你注册而免费分享苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（列维）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迪恩·贝尔通塞尔J/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增长营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了 41%，调整后毛利率提高了 390 个基点，达到 57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始根据通货膨胀主动调整定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi 股价在 2021 年上涨超过 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永恒资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司会兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最佳策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个值得永远持有的通胀避风港——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格上涨多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而巴菲特的好朋友比尔-盖茨恰好是美国最大的私人农田所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新的平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>您将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，您还将从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它不提供任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，当通货膨胀飙升时，这是最好的企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该买什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，当通货膨胀飙升时，这是最好的企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该买什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 17:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你还不如从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的一个严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在 20 世纪 70 年代两位数通货膨胀率时期管理着股票投资组合，并且对于消费者价格飙升时应该持有什么有很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在 1981 年写给伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）轻松提高价格的能力，以及 2）承接更多业务的能力，而不必花太多钱才能做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，目标是投资具有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速了解一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克（NKE）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意为勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员的标志性装备支付高价。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现了远高于 30% 的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中捕捉其产品的全部价格。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到约40%。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升，利润率也可能继续扩大。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年迄今为止，耐克股价上涨了约 19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果（AAPL）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高价硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品都是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>顾客根本无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这家科技巨头在定价方面有了更大的自由度。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的 M1 芯片将逐步取代英特尔在每台 Mac 中的 CPU，这凸显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上涨的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会造成销量的重大损失。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特允许苹果在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司投资组合中的份额增长到 40%，这是有充分理由的： 该公司在所有经济周期中都能保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约 13%，交易价格接近每股 150 美元。但是，如果你对加入目前的水平持观望态度，有些应用程序可能会因为你注册而免费分享苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（列维）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迪恩·贝尔通塞尔J/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增长营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了 41%，调整后毛利率提高了 390 个基点，达到 57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始根据通货膨胀主动调整定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi 股价在 2021 年上涨超过 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永恒资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司会兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最佳策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个值得永远持有的通胀避风港——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格上涨多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而巴菲特的好朋友比尔-盖茨恰好是美国最大的私人农田所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新的平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>您将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，您还将从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它不提供任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LEVI":"李维斯","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","NKE":"耐克","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180020937","content_text":"Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.\n\nHigh inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.\nBut fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.\nBuffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.\nIn a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.\nIn other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.\nLet’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.\nNike (NKE)\nTY Lim/Shutterstock\nNike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.\nCustomers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.\nDespite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.\nThe company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.\nManagement believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.\nAmazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.\nNike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.\nApple (AAPL)\nVytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock\nGlobal demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.\nStrong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.\nCustomers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.\nThe company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.\nApple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.\nWarren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.\nApple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.\nLevi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)\ndean bertoncelj/Shutterstock\nA market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.\nSpecifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.\nIn the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.\nIn fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.\nThe company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.\nLevi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.\nThe ultimate 'forever asset'?\nMNStudio/Shutterstock\nWarren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.\nBut forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.\nBut there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.\nNo matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.\nThese days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.\nYou’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.\nThis article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"LEVI":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887285196,"gmtCreate":1632046194715,"gmtModify":1632803143383,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ coming down","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd1d94e1bd8b19bdad07a703d233afe","width":"1080","height":"2213"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887285196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":853766099,"gmtCreate":1634847702675,"gmtModify":1634847702869,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","text":"$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09326cb866c97d60db920ee503139e56","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853766099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822652018,"gmtCreate":1634130128692,"gmtModify":1634130128757,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","text":"$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$ negative net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive about this stock to cause the last few spikes?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede7f267a8801ff40a537599086110cc","width":"1080","height":"3100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822652018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698506065,"gmtCreate":1640431711010,"gmtModify":1640431711138,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to get better","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to get better","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$ when is it going to get better","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd9085e64fdf9707658d7e82e49617f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698506065","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869403134,"gmtCreate":1632312399228,"gmtModify":1632801342422,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2a1139eaa8128c087baae8a28d5365","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869403134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":827311238,"gmtCreate":1634412745670,"gmtModify":1634412745828,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","text":"$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$too late to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a939d273ee29d51b5ec25c86d64db6","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827311238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}