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2021-10-13

Good. 👍

Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到 2030 年达到 2,500 美元的道路</blockquote>

2021-10-13

[微笑]

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2021-10-07

[财迷]

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2021-10-07

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2021-10-04

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US IPO Week Ahead: New issuers work up a sweat in a fitness-led 5 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO一周即将到来：新发行人在健身主导的5周IPO中大汗淋漓</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Thanks for information. [开心]

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2021-10-14

$OCDX(OCDX)$going up to next support level?

2021-10-07

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2021-09-03

$OCDX(OCDX)$value stock.[财迷]

2021-12-15

[smile]

SoFi: Beaten Down Badly, We See Big Time Gains Ahead<blockquote>SoFi：遭受重创，我们看到未来将有巨大的收获</blockquote>

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"authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>finally keep going","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>finally keep going","text":"$OCDX(OCDX)$finally keep going","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239b5a088f79e3ac7e9e27cf49780d59","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698298938","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607882952,"gmtCreate":1639525150368,"gmtModify":1639525150449,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607882952","repostId":"1168111596","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168111596","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639524397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168111596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 07:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi: Beaten Down Badly, We See Big Time Gains Ahead<blockquote>SoFi：遭受重创，我们看到未来将有巨大的收获</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168111596","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.\nAt these levels and below, it ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.</li>  <li>At these levels and below, it is a solid investment, but also once again a trading opportunity.</li>  <li>SOFI truly has a competitive advantage as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.</li>  <li>The most recent quarter was decent, a banking charter is nigh, and this is going to be a winner you should own.</li>  <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing. </li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们已经成功地多次交易了这只股票。</li><li>在这些水平及以下，这是一项可靠的投资，但也再次是一个交易机会。</li><li>SOFI 确实拥有竞争优势，因为其横向整合产品横跨金融科技和银行业的许多领域。</li><li>最近一个季度表现不错，银行特许即将到来，这将是你应该拥有的赢家。</li><li>这个想法与我的私人投资社区BAD BEAT Investing的成员进行了更深入的讨论。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> We recommend buying SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on this most recent selloff. We think the stock is at levels that are strong buys. Period. End of the column. That was easy. But in all seriousness, while having traded this name successfully multiple times, we felt it prudent to put out another piece on the ticker to inform our readers that it is setup once again as both a long-term winner if you enter here, and has the potential for a rapid-return swing trade. While the market has many concerns, with this pullback and considering the most recent earnings, the company is moving right along. We fully believe this will be a solid winner. You should own it.</p><p><blockquote>我们建议在最近的抛售中买入 SoFi Technologies (SOFI)。我们认为该股处于强力买入的水平。周期。列的末尾。这很容易。但说真的，虽然我们已经多次成功交易了这个名字，但我们认为谨慎的做法是在股票代码上发布另一篇文章，告知我们的读者，如果您进入这里，它将再次成为长期赢家，并且有可能进行快速回报的波段交易。虽然市场有很多担忧，但随着这次回调并考虑到最近的收益，该公司正在向前发展。我们完全相信这将是一个坚实的赢家。你应该拥有它。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is down hard from recent highs just weeks ago. Admittedly there may be some volatility, but we think the play is definitely to buy some now, and God willing if this drops more, buy it up.</p><p><blockquote>该股从几周前的近期高点大幅下跌。诚然，可能会有一些波动，但我们认为现在绝对是买入一些，上帝保佑，如果价格下跌更多，就买入。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, there have been some other great companies we still love that are new and growing and the stocks have struggled. We think it's good to go.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，我们仍然喜欢其他一些伟大的公司，它们是新的和不断发展的，但股票一直在苦苦挣扎。我们觉得可以走了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这出戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Buy 1: $14.30</p><p><blockquote>购买1：14.30美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 2: $14.00</p><p><blockquote>购买2：14.00美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 3: $13.50</p><p><blockquote>购买3：13.50美元</blockquote></p><p> Shorter term profit target: $16.50-$17.00</p><p><blockquote>短期利润目标：16.50-17.00 美元</blockquote></p><p> Traders who need a stop should look to jump ship on negative momentum at under 13.00, but we think it is a mistake frankly. Build a position for the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>需要止损的交易者应该考虑在 13.00 以下的负动量跳槽，但坦率地说，我们认为这是一个错误。建立长期头寸。</blockquote></p><p> For call options, consider the January 2023 $15 strike.</p><p><blockquote>对于看涨期权期权，请考虑 2023 年 1 月 15 美元的罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discussion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>讨论</b></blockquote></p><p> The story of SOFI remains a great one. We know many who have used it in the years past, as they had attractive rates, terms, and made finance by the people, at least in the messaging. Here we are at the end of 2021, and SOFI now represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry.</p><p><blockquote>索菲的故事仍然很棒。我们知道许多人在过去几年中使用过它，因为他们有吸引人的利率、条款，并且由人们资助，至少在信息传递方面是这样。现在是2021年底，SOFI现在代表了下一代银行业，并在不断增长的金融科技行业中发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> The stock got hit hard when SoftBank recently sold a massive stake. SoFi was also a bit of collateral damage in a recent New York court case, where a New York judge declined to approve Renren's (NYSE:RENN) settlement with shareholders who accused RENN insiders of taking the company's portfolio for themselves in 2018. The portfolio included a large stake in SoFi. Generally speaking, fintech has been weak of late. In fact, a lot of specialty tech has been hammered as we have noted in our chat boards, while the NASDAQ 100 index is largely holding up thanks to mega cap tech.</p><p><blockquote>软银最近出售了大量股份，该股遭受重创。在最近的纽约法庭案件中，SoFi 也受到了一些附带损害，纽约法官拒绝批准人人网 (NYSE:RENN) 与指控 RENN 内部人士在 2018 年将公司投资组合据为己有的股东达成的和解。该投资组合包括 SoFi 的大量股份。总体而言，金融科技近期表现疲软。事实上，正如我们在聊天板上指出的那样，许多专业技术都受到了打击，而纳斯达克 100 指数在很大程度上得益于 mega cap tech。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless of the short term, when you look at SoFi, you have to be amazed at the growth they have shown! They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector. They have blossomed and now offer products ranging from personal loans, home loans, and even insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.</p><p><blockquote>不管短期如何，当你看着SoFi时，你不得不对他们表现出的增长感到惊讶!他们最初是学生贷款市场的一个简单贷款提供商，后来扩大了他们的服务范围，涵盖了消费金融领域的大量服务。他们已经蓬勃发展，现在提供的产品范围从个人贷款、住房贷款，甚至保险、信用卡服务、现金管理、经纪服务，最近还为企业提供支付和金融服务API。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们在一个应用程序中的多样化和集成服务生态系统为SOFI带来了巨大的用户增长，因为越来越沮丧的传统银行客户选择转向SOFI以获得便利。</blockquote></p><p> What we love about this company is that it has such a low cost to acquire customers, but makes what a bank makes margin wise with loans. The combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. What is more, since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that comes in and the buys into high-value loans now increases significantly compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means. In fact, it can increase 180%:</p><p><blockquote>我们喜欢这家公司的一点是，它获取客户的成本非常低，但却像银行一样明智地利用贷款。在同一个应用程序上结合低价值金融产品和高价值贷款，增加了客户交叉购买这些贷款的机会。此外，由于客户是以低成本获得其低价值产品的，与通过传统方式获得相同贷款客户相比，每个客户的可变利润和购买高价值贷款的金额现在显著增加。事实上，它可以增加180%：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e035dbd338ffdd698ad348e03cc7886\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is absolutely winning. The long-term potential here cannot be understated. That said, the most recent quarter was quite decent.</p><p><blockquote>这绝对是赢了。这里的长期潜力不可低估。也就是说，最近一个季度的表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue was $272.0 million in Q3 2021 which was up 35% from the corresponding prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, net revenue was $277.2 million, a record high for Q3, and 28% higher than last year's $216.8. Revenues were also up sequentially from Q2. There was continued strength in all three of SoFi's business segments, leading to these solid results, and the top line beat consensus estimates handily by $21.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第三季度总收入为 2.72 亿美元，比去年同期增长 35%。调整后，净收入为 2.772 亿美元，创第三季度历史新高，比去年的 216.8 美元高出 28%。收入也较第二季度环比增长。SoFi 的所有三个业务部门都持续强劲，取得了这些稳健的业绩，营收轻松超出市场普遍预期 2160 万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Now the major complaint of course for the relatively new public company is that it is not consistently making money on the bottom line. But it will folks. Indeed, SoFi saw $30.0 million net loss for the Q3 2021, compared to a net loss of $42.9 million in last year's quarter.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对于这家相对较新的上市公司来说，主要的抱怨是它没有持续盈利。但是会的，伙计们。事实上，SoFi 2021 年第三季度净亏损 3000 万美元，而去年同期净亏损 4290 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The one thing to remember here is that the acquisition of Galileo was costly, and they lowered their valuation allowance. Just something to keep in mind. Anyway, we are pleased to see another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. It came in at of $10.3 million, and was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter, due to the combination of higher revenues across business segments, though this was a touch offset by increased spending to achieve incremental growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里要记住的一件事是，收购伽利略的成本很高，他们降低了估值津贴。只是要记住的事情。无论如何，我们很高兴看到另一个季度的调整后 EBITDA 为正。由于各业务部门收入增加，该利润为 1030 万美元，连续第五个季度为正，尽管这被为实现增量增长而增加的支出所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> One of the most critical items we noted was SOFI continues to accelerate its year-over-year growth in both members and total products in the quarter. This is key. Total members grew 96% year-over-year to 2.9 million, up from 1.5 million at the same point last year, and total products grew 105% to 3.3 million at quarter-end compared to 2.3 million at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>我们注意到的最重要的项目之一是 SOFI 本季度会员和产品总量继续加速同比增长。这是关键。会员总数同比增长 96%，达到 290 万，高于去年同期的 150 万，季度末产品总数增长 105%，达到 330 万，而去年同期为 230 万。</blockquote></p><p> This is so critical to understand. The business metrics are largely improving, regardless of the stock moves. The stock is not the company. The company is not the stock. But the stock will recognize the moves in metrics eventually as the noise settles down and things improve. Growth in the member base and products continues to be driven by significant expansion in the offerings across business segments, particularly in the Financial Services segment, where growth in SoFi Invest and SoFi Money offerings more than doubled the number of Financial Services segment products, to nearly 3.2 million, up from approximately 1.2 million, at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>理解这一点非常重要。无论股票走势如何，业务指标都在很大程度上有所改善。股票不是公司。公司不是股票。但随着噪音的平息和情况的改善，该股最终会认识到指标的变化。会员基础和产品的增长继续受到各业务部门产品大幅扩张的推动，特别是在金融服务部门，SoFi Invest 和 SoFi Money 产品的增长使金融服务部门产品数量增加了一倍多，达到近 320 万个，去年同期约为 120 万个。</blockquote></p><p> As of the end of Q3, Financial Services segment products were nearly three times the number of Lending products.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，金融服务板块产品数量几乎是贷款产品数量的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Growth in personal and student loans largely drove the 15% year-over-year increase in Lending segment products.</p><p><blockquote>个人和学生贷款的增长在很大程度上推动了贷款部门产品的同比增长 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Technology Platform accounts increased by 80% to nearly 89 million. All of this is solid growth. The results versus guidance are a key communication from the company that we love to see. It helps hold them accountable.</p><p><blockquote>技术平台账户增长80%，达到近8900万。所有这些都是稳健的增长。结果与指导是我们喜欢看到的公司的关键沟通。这有助于让他们承担责任。</blockquote></p><p> We won't go incredibly deeper into the numbers but the key here is that the company's performance trounced guidance all around. We do not think management sandbags in order to beat either. The company is simply growing solidly.</p><p><blockquote>我们不会深入探讨这些数字，但这里的关键是该公司的业绩全面超出了指引。我们不认为管理沙袋是为了击败任何人。该公司正在稳步发展。</blockquote></p><p> That said, management expects continued strong growth to finish the year. For Q4, they see expected adjusted net revenue of $272 to $282 million and expected adjusted EBITDA of $2 million to $3 million. That is strong growth on the top line:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，管理层预计今年年底将继续强劲增长。对于第四季度，他们预计调整后净收入为 2.72 亿至 2.82 亿美元，预计调整后 EBITDA 为 200 万至 300 万美元。这是营收的强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d39f813c57f0aa872bee7e405db85a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company also raised its guidance. We love it when companies raise guidance:</p><p><blockquote>该公司还提高了指引。我们喜欢公司提出指导意见：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e250a317e08abf380a453e23c6e97b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sure, there is a lot of noise around what will happen with rates, and the Fed, and with COVID and the economy. But in perspective, higher rates are good for companies that lend money, so long as they are securing funding at a nominal rate and profiting from a spread. The company sees annual performance being strong thanks to year-to-date performance and a strong Q4. We are most excited by seeing the company break a billion in revenues this year, with EBITDA possibly breaking $30 million. Growth from here is all but guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>当然，关于利率、美联储、新冠疫情和经济将会发生什么，有很多噪音。但从长远来看，较高的利率对放贷公司来说是有利的，只要它们以名义利率获得资金并从利差中获利。由于年初至今的业绩和强劲的第四季度，该公司认为年度业绩强劲。我们最兴奋的是看到该公司今年的收入突破 10 亿美元，EBITDA 可能突破 3000 万美元。从这里开始的增长几乎是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing we want to point out again is how the extension of the government's student loan moratorium has hindered the company. But that is coming to an end. While that was costly in 2021, we expect that 2022 will see a nice boost in repayment. So keep that in mind.</p><p><blockquote>我们想再次指出的一件事是，政府学生贷款暂停期的延长如何阻碍了该公司。但这即将结束。虽然 2021 年的成本很高，但我们预计 2022 年还款将大幅增加。所以请记住这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Then there is of course the bank charter, which we see as very likely. For more on this, please see the many columns on SoFi on Seeking Alpha discussing this. We will say that as they have applied for a national bank license, if they get it, there are so many other products they could offer in addition to some other innovative things they could try as it relates to banking products.</p><p><blockquote>当然还有银行章程，我们认为这是很有可能的。有关这方面的更多信息，请查看SoFi上关于Seeking Alpha讨论这方面的许多专栏。我们要说的是，由于他们已经申请了国家银行许可证，如果他们获得了许可证，除了一些与银行产品相关的其他创新产品之外，他们还可以提供许多其他产品。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a risk to the stock and to the company's growth would be if they were straight up denied a banking charter. That would hurt potential growth and we could see the stock being sold off pretty hard.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果他们被直接拒绝银行执照，股票和公司的增长将面临风险。这将损害潜在增长，我们可能会看到该股被严重抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Another risk is if the government comes in and tries to regulate the massive uptick in the number of companies offering customers access to trading, or otherwise tries to limit individuals from trading. A lot of money is made from trading/investing, so any regulation here that limits this could be detrimental. Traders should keep their ears and eyes on the regulatory wire for anything that could hurt SoFi or its competitors in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>另一个风险是，如果政府介入并试图监管向客户提供交易机会的公司数量的大幅增加，或者以其他方式试图限制个人交易。很多钱都是从交易/投资中赚的，所以任何限制这一点的法规都可能是有害的。交易者应密切关注监管机构，寻找任何可能在这方面损害 SoFi 或其竞争对手的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Take home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>带回家</b></blockquote></p><p> While the company and stock are not risk-free, the pullback has been massive. The secondary, as well as institutional selling, along with broader fintech weakness, has set up a great trading opportunity here. Take advantage of the selloff here and you will thank yourself down the road for buying this gem.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司和股票并非没有风险，但回调幅度巨大。二级市场以及机构抛售，以及更广泛的金融科技疲软，在这里创造了一个巨大的交易机会。利用这里的抛售，你会感谢自己购买了这颗宝石。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi: Beaten Down Badly, We See Big Time Gains Ahead<blockquote>SoFi：遭受重创，我们看到未来将有巨大的收获</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi: Beaten Down Badly, We See Big Time Gains Ahead<blockquote>SoFi：遭受重创，我们看到未来将有巨大的收获</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 07:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.</li>  <li>At these levels and below, it is a solid investment, but also once again a trading opportunity.</li>  <li>SOFI truly has a competitive advantage as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.</li>  <li>The most recent quarter was decent, a banking charter is nigh, and this is going to be a winner you should own.</li>  <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing. </li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们已经成功地多次交易了这只股票。</li><li>在这些水平及以下，这是一项可靠的投资，但也再次是一个交易机会。</li><li>SOFI 确实拥有竞争优势，因为其横向整合产品横跨金融科技和银行业的许多领域。</li><li>最近一个季度表现不错，银行特许即将到来，这将是你应该拥有的赢家。</li><li>这个想法与我的私人投资社区BAD BEAT Investing的成员进行了更深入的讨论。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> We recommend buying SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on this most recent selloff. We think the stock is at levels that are strong buys. Period. End of the column. That was easy. But in all seriousness, while having traded this name successfully multiple times, we felt it prudent to put out another piece on the ticker to inform our readers that it is setup once again as both a long-term winner if you enter here, and has the potential for a rapid-return swing trade. While the market has many concerns, with this pullback and considering the most recent earnings, the company is moving right along. We fully believe this will be a solid winner. You should own it.</p><p><blockquote>我们建议在最近的抛售中买入 SoFi Technologies (SOFI)。我们认为该股处于强力买入的水平。周期。列的末尾。这很容易。但说真的，虽然我们已经多次成功交易了这个名字，但我们认为谨慎的做法是在股票代码上发布另一篇文章，告知我们的读者，如果您进入这里，它将再次成为长期赢家，并且有可能进行快速回报的波段交易。虽然市场有很多担忧，但随着这次回调并考虑到最近的收益，该公司正在向前发展。我们完全相信这将是一个坚实的赢家。你应该拥有它。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is down hard from recent highs just weeks ago. Admittedly there may be some volatility, but we think the play is definitely to buy some now, and God willing if this drops more, buy it up.</p><p><blockquote>该股从几周前的近期高点大幅下跌。诚然，可能会有一些波动，但我们认为现在绝对是买入一些，上帝保佑，如果价格下跌更多，就买入。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, there have been some other great companies we still love that are new and growing and the stocks have struggled. We think it's good to go.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，我们仍然喜欢其他一些伟大的公司，它们是新的和不断发展的，但股票一直在苦苦挣扎。我们觉得可以走了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这出戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Buy 1: $14.30</p><p><blockquote>购买1：14.30美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 2: $14.00</p><p><blockquote>购买2：14.00美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 3: $13.50</p><p><blockquote>购买3：13.50美元</blockquote></p><p> Shorter term profit target: $16.50-$17.00</p><p><blockquote>短期利润目标：16.50-17.00 美元</blockquote></p><p> Traders who need a stop should look to jump ship on negative momentum at under 13.00, but we think it is a mistake frankly. Build a position for the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>需要止损的交易者应该考虑在 13.00 以下的负动量跳槽，但坦率地说，我们认为这是一个错误。建立长期头寸。</blockquote></p><p> For call options, consider the January 2023 $15 strike.</p><p><blockquote>对于看涨期权期权，请考虑 2023 年 1 月 15 美元的罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discussion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>讨论</b></blockquote></p><p> The story of SOFI remains a great one. We know many who have used it in the years past, as they had attractive rates, terms, and made finance by the people, at least in the messaging. Here we are at the end of 2021, and SOFI now represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry.</p><p><blockquote>索菲的故事仍然很棒。我们知道许多人在过去几年中使用过它，因为他们有吸引人的利率、条款，并且由人们资助，至少在信息传递方面是这样。现在是2021年底，SOFI现在代表了下一代银行业，并在不断增长的金融科技行业中发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> The stock got hit hard when SoftBank recently sold a massive stake. SoFi was also a bit of collateral damage in a recent New York court case, where a New York judge declined to approve Renren's (NYSE:RENN) settlement with shareholders who accused RENN insiders of taking the company's portfolio for themselves in 2018. The portfolio included a large stake in SoFi. Generally speaking, fintech has been weak of late. In fact, a lot of specialty tech has been hammered as we have noted in our chat boards, while the NASDAQ 100 index is largely holding up thanks to mega cap tech.</p><p><blockquote>软银最近出售了大量股份，该股遭受重创。在最近的纽约法庭案件中，SoFi 也受到了一些附带损害，纽约法官拒绝批准人人网 (NYSE:RENN) 与指控 RENN 内部人士在 2018 年将公司投资组合据为己有的股东达成的和解。该投资组合包括 SoFi 的大量股份。总体而言，金融科技近期表现疲软。事实上，正如我们在聊天板上指出的那样，许多专业技术都受到了打击，而纳斯达克 100 指数在很大程度上得益于 mega cap tech。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless of the short term, when you look at SoFi, you have to be amazed at the growth they have shown! They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector. They have blossomed and now offer products ranging from personal loans, home loans, and even insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.</p><p><blockquote>不管短期如何，当你看着SoFi时，你不得不对他们表现出的增长感到惊讶!他们最初是学生贷款市场的一个简单贷款提供商，后来扩大了他们的服务范围，涵盖了消费金融领域的大量服务。他们已经蓬勃发展，现在提供的产品范围从个人贷款、住房贷款，甚至保险、信用卡服务、现金管理、经纪服务，最近还为企业提供支付和金融服务API。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们在一个应用程序中的多样化和集成服务生态系统为SOFI带来了巨大的用户增长，因为越来越沮丧的传统银行客户选择转向SOFI以获得便利。</blockquote></p><p> What we love about this company is that it has such a low cost to acquire customers, but makes what a bank makes margin wise with loans. The combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. What is more, since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that comes in and the buys into high-value loans now increases significantly compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means. In fact, it can increase 180%:</p><p><blockquote>我们喜欢这家公司的一点是，它获取客户的成本非常低，但却像银行一样明智地利用贷款。在同一个应用程序上结合低价值金融产品和高价值贷款，增加了客户交叉购买这些贷款的机会。此外，由于客户是以低成本获得其低价值产品的，与通过传统方式获得相同贷款客户相比，每个客户的可变利润和购买高价值贷款的金额现在显著增加。事实上，它可以增加180%：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e035dbd338ffdd698ad348e03cc7886\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is absolutely winning. The long-term potential here cannot be understated. That said, the most recent quarter was quite decent.</p><p><blockquote>这绝对是赢了。这里的长期潜力不可低估。也就是说，最近一个季度的表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue was $272.0 million in Q3 2021 which was up 35% from the corresponding prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, net revenue was $277.2 million, a record high for Q3, and 28% higher than last year's $216.8. Revenues were also up sequentially from Q2. There was continued strength in all three of SoFi's business segments, leading to these solid results, and the top line beat consensus estimates handily by $21.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第三季度总收入为 2.72 亿美元，比去年同期增长 35%。调整后，净收入为 2.772 亿美元，创第三季度历史新高，比去年的 216.8 美元高出 28%。收入也较第二季度环比增长。SoFi 的所有三个业务部门都持续强劲，取得了这些稳健的业绩，营收轻松超出市场普遍预期 2160 万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Now the major complaint of course for the relatively new public company is that it is not consistently making money on the bottom line. But it will folks. Indeed, SoFi saw $30.0 million net loss for the Q3 2021, compared to a net loss of $42.9 million in last year's quarter.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对于这家相对较新的上市公司来说，主要的抱怨是它没有持续盈利。但是会的，伙计们。事实上，SoFi 2021 年第三季度净亏损 3000 万美元，而去年同期净亏损 4290 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The one thing to remember here is that the acquisition of Galileo was costly, and they lowered their valuation allowance. Just something to keep in mind. Anyway, we are pleased to see another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. It came in at of $10.3 million, and was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter, due to the combination of higher revenues across business segments, though this was a touch offset by increased spending to achieve incremental growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里要记住的一件事是，收购伽利略的成本很高，他们降低了估值津贴。只是要记住的事情。无论如何，我们很高兴看到另一个季度的调整后 EBITDA 为正。由于各业务部门收入增加，该利润为 1030 万美元，连续第五个季度为正，尽管这被为实现增量增长而增加的支出所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> One of the most critical items we noted was SOFI continues to accelerate its year-over-year growth in both members and total products in the quarter. This is key. Total members grew 96% year-over-year to 2.9 million, up from 1.5 million at the same point last year, and total products grew 105% to 3.3 million at quarter-end compared to 2.3 million at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>我们注意到的最重要的项目之一是 SOFI 本季度会员和产品总量继续加速同比增长。这是关键。会员总数同比增长 96%，达到 290 万，高于去年同期的 150 万，季度末产品总数增长 105%，达到 330 万，而去年同期为 230 万。</blockquote></p><p> This is so critical to understand. The business metrics are largely improving, regardless of the stock moves. The stock is not the company. The company is not the stock. But the stock will recognize the moves in metrics eventually as the noise settles down and things improve. Growth in the member base and products continues to be driven by significant expansion in the offerings across business segments, particularly in the Financial Services segment, where growth in SoFi Invest and SoFi Money offerings more than doubled the number of Financial Services segment products, to nearly 3.2 million, up from approximately 1.2 million, at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>理解这一点非常重要。无论股票走势如何，业务指标都在很大程度上有所改善。股票不是公司。公司不是股票。但随着噪音的平息和情况的改善，该股最终会认识到指标的变化。会员基础和产品的增长继续受到各业务部门产品大幅扩张的推动，特别是在金融服务部门，SoFi Invest 和 SoFi Money 产品的增长使金融服务部门产品数量增加了一倍多，达到近 320 万个，去年同期约为 120 万个。</blockquote></p><p> As of the end of Q3, Financial Services segment products were nearly three times the number of Lending products.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，金融服务板块产品数量几乎是贷款产品数量的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Growth in personal and student loans largely drove the 15% year-over-year increase in Lending segment products.</p><p><blockquote>个人和学生贷款的增长在很大程度上推动了贷款部门产品的同比增长 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Technology Platform accounts increased by 80% to nearly 89 million. All of this is solid growth. The results versus guidance are a key communication from the company that we love to see. It helps hold them accountable.</p><p><blockquote>技术平台账户增长80%，达到近8900万。所有这些都是稳健的增长。结果与指导是我们喜欢看到的公司的关键沟通。这有助于让他们承担责任。</blockquote></p><p> We won't go incredibly deeper into the numbers but the key here is that the company's performance trounced guidance all around. We do not think management sandbags in order to beat either. The company is simply growing solidly.</p><p><blockquote>我们不会深入探讨这些数字，但这里的关键是该公司的业绩全面超出了指引。我们不认为管理沙袋是为了击败任何人。该公司正在稳步发展。</blockquote></p><p> That said, management expects continued strong growth to finish the year. For Q4, they see expected adjusted net revenue of $272 to $282 million and expected adjusted EBITDA of $2 million to $3 million. That is strong growth on the top line:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，管理层预计今年年底将继续强劲增长。对于第四季度，他们预计调整后净收入为 2.72 亿至 2.82 亿美元，预计调整后 EBITDA 为 200 万至 300 万美元。这是营收的强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d39f813c57f0aa872bee7e405db85a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company also raised its guidance. We love it when companies raise guidance:</p><p><blockquote>该公司还提高了指引。我们喜欢公司提出指导意见：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e250a317e08abf380a453e23c6e97b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sure, there is a lot of noise around what will happen with rates, and the Fed, and with COVID and the economy. But in perspective, higher rates are good for companies that lend money, so long as they are securing funding at a nominal rate and profiting from a spread. The company sees annual performance being strong thanks to year-to-date performance and a strong Q4. We are most excited by seeing the company break a billion in revenues this year, with EBITDA possibly breaking $30 million. Growth from here is all but guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>当然，关于利率、美联储、新冠疫情和经济将会发生什么，有很多噪音。但从长远来看，较高的利率对放贷公司来说是有利的，只要它们以名义利率获得资金并从利差中获利。由于年初至今的业绩和强劲的第四季度，该公司认为年度业绩强劲。我们最兴奋的是看到该公司今年的收入突破 10 亿美元，EBITDA 可能突破 3000 万美元。从这里开始的增长几乎是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing we want to point out again is how the extension of the government's student loan moratorium has hindered the company. But that is coming to an end. While that was costly in 2021, we expect that 2022 will see a nice boost in repayment. So keep that in mind.</p><p><blockquote>我们想再次指出的一件事是，政府学生贷款暂停期的延长如何阻碍了该公司。但这即将结束。虽然 2021 年的成本很高，但我们预计 2022 年还款将大幅增加。所以请记住这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Then there is of course the bank charter, which we see as very likely. For more on this, please see the many columns on SoFi on Seeking Alpha discussing this. We will say that as they have applied for a national bank license, if they get it, there are so many other products they could offer in addition to some other innovative things they could try as it relates to banking products.</p><p><blockquote>当然还有银行章程，我们认为这是很有可能的。有关这方面的更多信息，请查看SoFi上关于Seeking Alpha讨论这方面的许多专栏。我们要说的是，由于他们已经申请了国家银行许可证，如果他们获得了许可证，除了一些与银行产品相关的其他创新产品之外，他们还可以提供许多其他产品。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a risk to the stock and to the company's growth would be if they were straight up denied a banking charter. That would hurt potential growth and we could see the stock being sold off pretty hard.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果他们被直接拒绝银行执照，股票和公司的增长将面临风险。这将损害潜在增长，我们可能会看到该股被严重抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Another risk is if the government comes in and tries to regulate the massive uptick in the number of companies offering customers access to trading, or otherwise tries to limit individuals from trading. A lot of money is made from trading/investing, so any regulation here that limits this could be detrimental. Traders should keep their ears and eyes on the regulatory wire for anything that could hurt SoFi or its competitors in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>另一个风险是，如果政府介入并试图监管向客户提供交易机会的公司数量的大幅增加，或者以其他方式试图限制个人交易。很多钱都是从交易/投资中赚的，所以任何限制这一点的法规都可能是有害的。交易者应密切关注监管机构，寻找任何可能在这方面损害 SoFi 或其竞争对手的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Take home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>带回家</b></blockquote></p><p> While the company and stock are not risk-free, the pullback has been massive. The secondary, as well as institutional selling, along with broader fintech weakness, has set up a great trading opportunity here. Take advantage of the selloff here and you will thank yourself down the road for buying this gem.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司和股票并非没有风险，但回调幅度巨大。二级市场以及机构抛售，以及更广泛的金融科技疲软，在这里创造了一个巨大的交易机会。利用这里的抛售，你会感谢自己购买了这颗宝石。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475109-sofi-beaten-down-badly-we-see-big-time-gains-ahead\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475109-sofi-beaten-down-badly-we-see-big-time-gains-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168111596","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.\nAt these levels and below, it is a solid investment, but also once again a trading opportunity.\nSOFI truly has a competitive advantage as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.\nThe most recent quarter was decent, a banking charter is nigh, and this is going to be a winner you should own.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing. \n\n\n\nWe recommend buying SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on this most recent selloff. We think the stock is at levels that are strong buys. Period. End of the column. That was easy. But in all seriousness, while having traded this name successfully multiple times, we felt it prudent to put out another piece on the ticker to inform our readers that it is setup once again as both a long-term winner if you enter here, and has the potential for a rapid-return swing trade. While the market has many concerns, with this pullback and considering the most recent earnings, the company is moving right along. We fully believe this will be a solid winner. You should own it.\n\nThe stock is down hard from recent highs just weeks ago. Admittedly there may be some volatility, but we think the play is definitely to buy some now, and God willing if this drops more, buy it up.\n\nMake no mistake, there have been some other great companies we still love that are new and growing and the stocks have struggled. We think it's good to go.\n\nThe play\nBuy 1: $14.30\n\nBuy 2: $14.00\n\nBuy 3: $13.50\n\nShorter term profit target: $16.50-$17.00\n\nTraders who need a stop should look to jump ship on negative momentum at under 13.00, but we think it is a mistake frankly. Build a position for the longer term.\n\nFor call options, consider the January 2023 $15 strike.\n\nDiscussion\nThe story of SOFI remains a great one. We know many who have used it in the years past, as they had attractive rates, terms, and made finance by the people, at least in the messaging. Here we are at the end of 2021, and SOFI now represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry.\n\nThe stock got hit hard when SoftBank recently sold a massive stake. SoFi was also a bit of collateral damage in a recent New York court case, where a New York judge declined to approve Renren's (NYSE:RENN) settlement with shareholders who accused RENN insiders of taking the company's portfolio for themselves in 2018. The portfolio included a large stake in SoFi. Generally speaking, fintech has been weak of late. In fact, a lot of specialty tech has been hammered as we have noted in our chat boards, while the NASDAQ 100 index is largely holding up thanks to mega cap tech.\n\nRegardless of the short term, when you look at SoFi, you have to be amazed at the growth they have shown! They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector. They have blossomed and now offer products ranging from personal loans, home loans, and even insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.\n\nOf course, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience.\n\nWhat we love about this company is that it has such a low cost to acquire customers, but makes what a bank makes margin wise with loans. The combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. What is more, since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that comes in and the buys into high-value loans now increases significantly compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means. In fact, it can increase 180%:\n\nThis is absolutely winning. The long-term potential here cannot be understated. That said, the most recent quarter was quite decent.\n\nTotal revenue was $272.0 million in Q3 2021 which was up 35% from the corresponding prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, net revenue was $277.2 million, a record high for Q3, and 28% higher than last year's $216.8. Revenues were also up sequentially from Q2. There was continued strength in all three of SoFi's business segments, leading to these solid results, and the top line beat consensus estimates handily by $21.6 million.\n\nNow the major complaint of course for the relatively new public company is that it is not consistently making money on the bottom line. But it will folks. Indeed, SoFi saw $30.0 million net loss for the Q3 2021, compared to a net loss of $42.9 million in last year's quarter.\n\nThe one thing to remember here is that the acquisition of Galileo was costly, and they lowered their valuation allowance. Just something to keep in mind. Anyway, we are pleased to see another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. It came in at of $10.3 million, and was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter, due to the combination of higher revenues across business segments, though this was a touch offset by increased spending to achieve incremental growth.\n\nOne of the most critical items we noted was SOFI continues to accelerate its year-over-year growth in both members and total products in the quarter. This is key. Total members grew 96% year-over-year to 2.9 million, up from 1.5 million at the same point last year, and total products grew 105% to 3.3 million at quarter-end compared to 2.3 million at the same point last year.\n\n\nThis is so critical to understand. The business metrics are largely improving, regardless of the stock moves. The stock is not the company. The company is not the stock. But the stock will recognize the moves in metrics eventually as the noise settles down and things improve. Growth in the member base and products continues to be driven by significant expansion in the offerings across business segments, particularly in the Financial Services segment, where growth in SoFi Invest and SoFi Money offerings more than doubled the number of Financial Services segment products, to nearly 3.2 million, up from approximately 1.2 million, at the same point last year.\n\nAs of the end of Q3, Financial Services segment products were nearly three times the number of Lending products.\n\nGrowth in personal and student loans largely drove the 15% year-over-year increase in Lending segment products.\n\nTechnology Platform accounts increased by 80% to nearly 89 million. All of this is solid growth. The results versus guidance are a key communication from the company that we love to see. It helps hold them accountable.\n\nWe won't go incredibly deeper into the numbers but the key here is that the company's performance trounced guidance all around. We do not think management sandbags in order to beat either. The company is simply growing solidly.\n\nThat said, management expects continued strong growth to finish the year. For Q4, they see expected adjusted net revenue of $272 to $282 million and expected adjusted EBITDA of $2 million to $3 million. That is strong growth on the top line:\n\nThe company also raised its guidance. We love it when companies raise guidance:\n\n\nSure, there is a lot of noise around what will happen with rates, and the Fed, and with COVID and the economy. But in perspective, higher rates are good for companies that lend money, so long as they are securing funding at a nominal rate and profiting from a spread. The company sees annual performance being strong thanks to year-to-date performance and a strong Q4. We are most excited by seeing the company break a billion in revenues this year, with EBITDA possibly breaking $30 million. Growth from here is all but guaranteed.\n\nA few catalysts and risks\nOne thing we want to point out again is how the extension of the government's student loan moratorium has hindered the company. But that is coming to an end. While that was costly in 2021, we expect that 2022 will see a nice boost in repayment. So keep that in mind.\n\nThen there is of course the bank charter, which we see as very likely. For more on this, please see the many columns on SoFi on Seeking Alpha discussing this. We will say that as they have applied for a national bank license, if they get it, there are so many other products they could offer in addition to some other innovative things they could try as it relates to banking products.\n\nOf course, a risk to the stock and to the company's growth would be if they were straight up denied a banking charter. That would hurt potential growth and we could see the stock being sold off pretty hard.\n\nAnother risk is if the government comes in and tries to regulate the massive uptick in the number of companies offering customers access to trading, or otherwise tries to limit individuals from trading. A lot of money is made from trading/investing, so any regulation here that limits this could be detrimental. Traders should keep their ears and eyes on the regulatory wire for anything that could hurt SoFi or its competitors in this regard.\n\nTake home\nWhile the company and stock are not risk-free, the pullback has been massive. The secondary, as well as institutional selling, along with broader fintech weakness, has set up a great trading opportunity here. Take advantage of the selloff here and you will thank yourself down the road for buying this gem.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822729954,"gmtCreate":1634172316289,"gmtModify":1634172316289,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>going up to next support level?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>going up to next support level?","text":"$OCDX(OCDX)$going up to next support level?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839f4396150379bc10c4deccfdd043e3","width":"1080","height":"2259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822729954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822044812,"gmtCreate":1634081925247,"gmtModify":1634081925357,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good. 👍&nbsp;","listText":"Good. 👍&nbsp;","text":"Good. 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822044812","repostId":"1188785088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188785088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634052465,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188785088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到 2030 年达到 2,500 美元的道路</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188785088","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla experienced explosive gains last year.\nThis year, the stock has struggled, but the co","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla experienced explosive gains last year.</li>  <li>This year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.</li>  <li>Better-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.</li>  <li>I suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207deb1c8eb2af0f4c49abcb18226dd4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉去年经历了爆炸性增长。</li><li>今年，该股表现挣扎，但该公司正走在正确的轨道上。</li><li>好于预期的生产和交付数据表明该股可能会在年底走高。</li><li>我怀疑特斯拉还有更多上涨空间，该股未来几年可能会达到 2,500 美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.</p><p><blockquote>我长期以来一直看好特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）。很难相信，但我第一次购买特斯拉股票是在八年前，当时股价在拆分调整后的 30 美元左右。现在，大约上涨了 2,500%，我仍然做多特斯拉，我认为这只股票还有更多上涨空间。特斯拉仍然是利润丰厚的电动汽车领域的领导者。该公司可以说拥有最好的产品，由最先进的技术驱动。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.</p><p><blockquote>此外，特斯拉拥有一套独特的竞争优势，该公司利用这些优势年复一年地保持竞争领先地位。特斯拉刚刚公布了出色的交付和生产数据，本季度可能会超出分析师的预期，随着我们的发展，该公司具有巨大的收入和每股收益增长潜力。虽然我们不会很快看到特斯拉股价再上涨 2,500%，但该股可能会在年底或明年初达到 1,000 美元。此外，特斯拉股价在未来几年也可能大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Setup</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术设置</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabe94c8ac775d6a4113df03ad66ffdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Stockcharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Stockcharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年和去年年底都表现出色。随后该股经历了约 40% 的大幅回调，跌至 550 美元水平。在这次大幅回调之后，特斯拉股价成功重新测试了 550 美元的水平。此后，该股一直处于稳定、简洁、上升的通道中。目前的走高趋势应该会持续下去，直到看涨趋势打破。然而，看涨趋势强劲，到今年年底可能会推动特斯拉股价达到 1,000 美元。此外，该公司目前拥有众多有利的基本面因素来配合建设性的技术设置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Edge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.</p><p><blockquote>相对于同行，特斯拉继续享有多方面的竞争优势。其营销、销售、软件开发、电池生产、增压、设计、开发和生产的方法为特斯拉提供了相对于竞争对手的显着优势。特斯拉从头开始设计和交付一切，该公司始终专注于在电动汽车领域的创新方面保持领先地位。然而，大多数传统汽车制造商仍然主要专注于内燃机汽车，并且仍然转向电动汽车。底线是，电动汽车市场的份额不断超过传统内燃机市场，而特斯拉是电动汽车领域的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global EV Market Share First Half of 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年上半年全球电动汽车市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460efe2072a471a917fc24f40e742d6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: statista.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：statista.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Deliveries Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量激增</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of&nbsp;241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a&nbsp;20% increase&nbsp;over the last quarter and a remarkable&nbsp;73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉刚刚宣布第三季度交付量再创历史新高，达到 241,300 辆，比上一季度增长 20%，同比大幅增长 73%。特斯拉共交付了9,275辆S/X型车以及232,025辆主流Model 3/Y型车。现在，如果我们对租赁车辆进行调整，我们将在第三季度销售约7,420辆Model S/X车辆，销售约218,104辆Model 3/Y车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Last quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for&nbsp;$9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.</p><p><blockquote>上季度（2021 年第二季度），特斯拉总共售出（不包括租赁）约 187,163 辆汽车，价值 98.74 亿美元。这张销售图片表明所有车辆的平均售价（“ASP”）约为 53,000 美元。特斯拉在第二季度售出了约 1,550 辆 Model S/X 汽车。因此，如果我们估计 Model S/X 汽车销售的平均售价约为 100,000 - 110,000 美元，那么 Model 3/Y 细分市场的平均售价约为 52,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了获得第三季度特斯拉汽车销量的大致数字，我们可以对该季度销售的7,420辆Model S/X汽车使用105,000美元的平均售价，对第三季度交付的218,104辆Model 3/Y汽车使用52,000美元的平均售价。这一估计给了我们大约8亿美元的Model S/X销售额和113.4亿美元的Model 3/Y销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 Earnings Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Last quarter, Tesla delivered&nbsp;$1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.</p><p><blockquote>上季度，特斯拉每股收益为 1.45 美元，比分析师普遍预测高出约 0.47 美元或 48%。该公司宣布营收为 119.6 亿美元，同时超出预期 5.5933 亿美元。现在，对于第三季度，普遍预期每股收益为 1.47 美元，收入为 134.9 亿美元。不过，我认为特斯拉也会打败这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>My Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的估计：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49202e7907ab71b56fdc7a9bd908431d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"975\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.</p><p><blockquote>我希望的收入不是 134.9 亿美元，而是 147.4 亿美元，比普遍预期增长约 9%。此外，我认为我们可以看到特斯拉第三季度非 GAAP 每股收益约为 1.85 美元，比当前共识数据所暗示的高出约 26%。如果特斯拉第三季度业绩明显好于预期，该股将成为年底上涨的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bright Future Ahead for Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉前景光明</b></blockquote></p><p> Estimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been&nbsp;26 upward revisions&nbsp;relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的估计正在上升。在过去90天内，有26次向上修正，而只有一次向下修正（2021财年）。尽管如此，估计可能会继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda469abb83b22a2a4505ae8d0373158\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我想提请大家注意最近几个季度的节拍数量。当然，特斯拉的盈利仍然有些波动，但很难否认最近好于预期的盈利增长。普遍预期过去四个季度的每股收益为 3.61 美元。然而，该公司的实际每股收益为 3.94 美元，比市场普遍预期平均高出约 9%。我们已经看到同比大幅增长的估计，但我认为随着我们的进展，结果可能会继续强于预期（约 10-20%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9918909984b4de589a4266c10f2a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3215da27370b6e97c23883ece163f6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计特斯拉未来几年的每股收益和收入将大幅增长。虽然该股目前看起来相对昂贵，但随着未来几年每股收益的飙升，该股的成本应该会越来越低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4392b7b8eeb3a6fc412f6cd79fe9e44e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是特斯拉未来几年的每股收益、市盈率和股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e110af6b9747752c5a540bdb00c5a4\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稳定强劲的每股收益增长趋势应该会持续下去，我预计该公司的股价到本十年末可能会达到 2,500 美元或更高。现在，一些市场参与者可能会认为这些股价预测是乐观的。不过，我认为这些预测可能相对温和。首先，该公司未来几年的每股收益可能会高于我的预期，其次，特斯拉的市盈率可能会在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Due to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，由于特斯拉独特的增长势头，唯一能与特斯拉相提并论的公司是亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）。亚马逊目前的估值是更成熟的特斯拉估值可能达到的水平。顺便说一句，亚马逊目前的市盈率约为每股收益的 58 倍，这正是我 2029 年特斯拉市盈率的预期。此外，预计股价升值幅度仅为当前水平的 220%，如果考虑到年数，这是相对温和的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉 2,500 美元目标价面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，当你谈论特斯拉时，有风险需要考虑。虽然我估计该公司到 2030 年每股收益将接近 50 美元，但该公司目前距离这样的数字还很远。因此，特斯拉存在无法体现我所设想的盈利增长的风险。需求放缓、竞争加剧、供应问题、增长放缓和其他变量都是我们在押注特斯拉到 2030 年将每股收益增加近十倍之前应该考虑的风险。严重的担忧可能会导致特斯拉的估值失去高度，如果出现任何严重问题，该公司的股价甚至可能倒挂。因此，我认为在向特斯拉投资投入任何资金之前，应该仔细考虑风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到 2030 年达到 2,500 美元的道路</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到 2030 年达到 2,500 美元的道路</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla experienced explosive gains last year.</li>  <li>This year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.</li>  <li>Better-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.</li>  <li>I suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207deb1c8eb2af0f4c49abcb18226dd4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉去年经历了爆炸性增长。</li><li>今年，该股表现挣扎，但该公司正走在正确的轨道上。</li><li>好于预期的生产和交付数据表明该股可能会在年底走高。</li><li>我怀疑特斯拉还有更多上涨空间，该股未来几年可能会达到 2,500 美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.</p><p><blockquote>我长期以来一直看好特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）。很难相信，但我第一次购买特斯拉股票是在八年前，当时股价在拆分调整后的 30 美元左右。现在，大约上涨了 2,500%，我仍然做多特斯拉，我认为这只股票还有更多上涨空间。特斯拉仍然是利润丰厚的电动汽车领域的领导者。该公司可以说拥有最好的产品，由最先进的技术驱动。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.</p><p><blockquote>此外，特斯拉拥有一套独特的竞争优势，该公司利用这些优势年复一年地保持竞争领先地位。特斯拉刚刚公布了出色的交付和生产数据，本季度可能会超出分析师的预期，随着我们的发展，该公司具有巨大的收入和每股收益增长潜力。虽然我们不会很快看到特斯拉股价再上涨 2,500%，但该股可能会在年底或明年初达到 1,000 美元。此外，特斯拉股价在未来几年也可能大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Setup</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术设置</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabe94c8ac775d6a4113df03ad66ffdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Stockcharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Stockcharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年和去年年底都表现出色。随后该股经历了约 40% 的大幅回调，跌至 550 美元水平。在这次大幅回调之后，特斯拉股价成功重新测试了 550 美元的水平。此后，该股一直处于稳定、简洁、上升的通道中。目前的走高趋势应该会持续下去，直到看涨趋势打破。然而，看涨趋势强劲，到今年年底可能会推动特斯拉股价达到 1,000 美元。此外，该公司目前拥有众多有利的基本面因素来配合建设性的技术设置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Edge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.</p><p><blockquote>相对于同行，特斯拉继续享有多方面的竞争优势。其营销、销售、软件开发、电池生产、增压、设计、开发和生产的方法为特斯拉提供了相对于竞争对手的显着优势。特斯拉从头开始设计和交付一切，该公司始终专注于在电动汽车领域的创新方面保持领先地位。然而，大多数传统汽车制造商仍然主要专注于内燃机汽车，并且仍然转向电动汽车。底线是，电动汽车市场的份额不断超过传统内燃机市场，而特斯拉是电动汽车领域的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global EV Market Share First Half of 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年上半年全球电动汽车市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460efe2072a471a917fc24f40e742d6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: statista.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：statista.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Deliveries Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量激增</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of&nbsp;241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a&nbsp;20% increase&nbsp;over the last quarter and a remarkable&nbsp;73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉刚刚宣布第三季度交付量再创历史新高，达到 241,300 辆，比上一季度增长 20%，同比大幅增长 73%。特斯拉共交付了9,275辆S/X型车以及232,025辆主流Model 3/Y型车。现在，如果我们对租赁车辆进行调整，我们将在第三季度销售约7,420辆Model S/X车辆，销售约218,104辆Model 3/Y车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Last quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for&nbsp;$9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.</p><p><blockquote>上季度（2021 年第二季度），特斯拉总共售出（不包括租赁）约 187,163 辆汽车，价值 98.74 亿美元。这张销售图片表明所有车辆的平均售价（“ASP”）约为 53,000 美元。特斯拉在第二季度售出了约 1,550 辆 Model S/X 汽车。因此，如果我们估计 Model S/X 汽车销售的平均售价约为 100,000 - 110,000 美元，那么 Model 3/Y 细分市场的平均售价约为 52,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了获得第三季度特斯拉汽车销量的大致数字，我们可以对该季度销售的7,420辆Model S/X汽车使用105,000美元的平均售价，对第三季度交付的218,104辆Model 3/Y汽车使用52,000美元的平均售价。这一估计给了我们大约8亿美元的Model S/X销售额和113.4亿美元的Model 3/Y销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 Earnings Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Last quarter, Tesla delivered&nbsp;$1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.</p><p><blockquote>上季度，特斯拉每股收益为 1.45 美元，比分析师普遍预测高出约 0.47 美元或 48%。该公司宣布营收为 119.6 亿美元，同时超出预期 5.5933 亿美元。现在，对于第三季度，普遍预期每股收益为 1.47 美元，收入为 134.9 亿美元。不过，我认为特斯拉也会打败这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>My Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的估计：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49202e7907ab71b56fdc7a9bd908431d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"975\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.</p><p><blockquote>我希望的收入不是 134.9 亿美元，而是 147.4 亿美元，比普遍预期增长约 9%。此外，我认为我们可以看到特斯拉第三季度非 GAAP 每股收益约为 1.85 美元，比当前共识数据所暗示的高出约 26%。如果特斯拉第三季度业绩明显好于预期，该股将成为年底上涨的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bright Future Ahead for Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉前景光明</b></blockquote></p><p> Estimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been&nbsp;26 upward revisions&nbsp;relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的估计正在上升。在过去90天内，有26次向上修正，而只有一次向下修正（2021财年）。尽管如此，估计可能会继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda469abb83b22a2a4505ae8d0373158\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我想提请大家注意最近几个季度的节拍数量。当然，特斯拉的盈利仍然有些波动，但很难否认最近好于预期的盈利增长。普遍预期过去四个季度的每股收益为 3.61 美元。然而，该公司的实际每股收益为 3.94 美元，比市场普遍预期平均高出约 9%。我们已经看到同比大幅增长的估计，但我认为随着我们的进展，结果可能会继续强于预期（约 10-20%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9918909984b4de589a4266c10f2a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3215da27370b6e97c23883ece163f6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计特斯拉未来几年的每股收益和收入将大幅增长。虽然该股目前看起来相对昂贵，但随着未来几年每股收益的飙升，该股的成本应该会越来越低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4392b7b8eeb3a6fc412f6cd79fe9e44e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是特斯拉未来几年的每股收益、市盈率和股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e110af6b9747752c5a540bdb00c5a4\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稳定强劲的每股收益增长趋势应该会持续下去，我预计该公司的股价到本十年末可能会达到 2,500 美元或更高。现在，一些市场参与者可能会认为这些股价预测是乐观的。不过，我认为这些预测可能相对温和。首先，该公司未来几年的每股收益可能会高于我的预期，其次，特斯拉的市盈率可能会在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Due to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，由于特斯拉独特的增长势头，唯一能与特斯拉相提并论的公司是亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）。亚马逊目前的估值是更成熟的特斯拉估值可能达到的水平。顺便说一句，亚马逊目前的市盈率约为每股收益的 58 倍，这正是我 2029 年特斯拉市盈率的预期。此外，预计股价升值幅度仅为当前水平的 220%，如果考虑到年数，这是相对温和的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉 2,500 美元目标价面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，当你谈论特斯拉时，有风险需要考虑。虽然我估计该公司到 2030 年每股收益将接近 50 美元，但该公司目前距离这样的数字还很远。因此，特斯拉存在无法体现我所设想的盈利增长的风险。需求放缓、竞争加剧、供应问题、增长放缓和其他变量都是我们在押注特斯拉到 2030 年将每股收益增加近十倍之前应该考虑的风险。严重的担忧可能会导致特斯拉的估值失去高度，如果出现任何严重问题，该公司的股价甚至可能倒挂。因此，我认为在向特斯拉投资投入任何资金之前，应该仔细考虑风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459378-tesla-path-to-2500-by-2030\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459378-tesla-path-to-2500-by-2030","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188785088","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla experienced explosive gains last year.\nThis year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.\nBetter-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.\nI suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty Images News\nI've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.\nAdditionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.\nTechnical Setup\nSource: Stockcharts.com\nTesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.\nCompetitive Edge\nTesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.\nGlobal EV Market Share First Half of 2021\nSource: statista.com\nDeliveries Surge\nTesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of 241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a 20% increase over the last quarter and a remarkable 73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.\nLast quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for $9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.\nTherefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.\nQ3 Earnings Outlook\nAnalysts Estimates:\nLast quarter, Tesla delivered $1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.\nMy Estimates:\nSource: Author's Material\nInstead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.\nBright Future Ahead for Tesla\nEstimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been 26 upward revisions relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nFirst, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nWe see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nHere is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.\nSource: Author's Material\nThe Bottom Line\nTesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.\nDue to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.\nRisks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target\nOf course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822042856,"gmtCreate":1634081816507,"gmtModify":1634081816648,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822042856","repostId":"2175132100","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822042053,"gmtCreate":1634081787915,"gmtModify":1634081788019,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822042053","repostId":"2174313550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828617597,"gmtCreate":1633910002917,"gmtModify":1633910002917,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>thanks tiger","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>thanks tiger","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$thanks tiger","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51857f0ad9592e523904dc12e3469a29","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828617597","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821286870,"gmtCreate":1633747616451,"gmtModify":1633747616558,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>good potential&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>good potential&nbsp;","text":"$OCDX(OCDX)$good potential","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3d4c17533a52325cc66bf982ae4a73","width":"1080","height":"2259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821286870","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823951859,"gmtCreate":1633574046718,"gmtModify":1633574046852,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823951859","repostId":"1173147867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823951198,"gmtCreate":1633574026362,"gmtModify":1633574026486,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823951198","repostId":"2173091029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823953488,"gmtCreate":1633573990461,"gmtModify":1633573990555,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823953488","repostId":"2173948202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867487657,"gmtCreate":1633308503140,"gmtModify":1633308528150,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867487657","repostId":"1186540865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817758590,"gmtCreate":1630991462510,"gmtModify":1632904722686,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for information.&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for information.&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for information. [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817758590","repostId":"2165880909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817915690,"gmtCreate":1630897129810,"gmtModify":1632905257054,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817915690","repostId":"1103617448","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103617448","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630893800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103617448?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 10:03","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"北京证券交易所来了！谁的“大肉”，谁的“汤”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103617448","media":"海清FICC频道","summary":"9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。\n一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择\n当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太","content":"<p>9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。</p>\n<p><b>一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择</b></p>\n<p>当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太空探索技术、生物医药技术为引领的科技革命正在到来。</p>\n<p><b>在中国经济高质量发展、产业转型升级和全球产业竞争中，科技创新的竞争是核心。</b>中国能否在这一场科技竞争中取得先发优势，不仅仅决定了中国能否解决关键技术“卡脖子”的短期问题，还决定了未来谁是全球产业经济的“领头羊”、21世纪是谁的世纪的长期问题。</p>\n<p><b>从历史上大国崛起的过程来看，科技是根本驱动力：</b></p>\n<p>英国借助蒸汽机的领先优势率先开始了第一次工业革命，成为世界霸主；</p>\n<p>美德在内燃机、电气化领域弯道超车超过英国，引领了第二次工业革命，取代了英国的地位；</p>\n<p>二战后美国在原子能、生物医药、航空航天、计算机等领域引领了第三次工业革命，进一步巩固了其全球科技领头羊地位和世界霸主地位。</p>\n<p><b>在上世纪八九十年代的美日贸易战中，除了“广场协议”这一表面因素和直接诱因外，美国最终能够胜过日本的关键也在于两国在经济发展驱动力选择上的根本差异：</b></p>\n<p>日本因循传统的主办银行制度，支持传统的大型制造业企业和房地产行业发展，其金融体制不适应科技创新的需要。在广场协议后，日元升值、出口受挫，日本更是直接通过货币大放水刺激起股市泡沫和房市泡沫，催生出“虚假的繁荣”。</p>\n<p>美国通过纳斯达克市场为科技创新企业提供便利的融资环境，硅谷发展起来，培育了一大批后来的互联网企业。</p>\n<p>到了九十年代，日本房市和股市泡沫破裂，经济陷入“失去的二十年”；美国厚积薄发，互联网革命兴起，出现“新经济繁荣”。日本在美日竞争中彻底出局。</p>\n<p><b>大国博弈，科技定乾坤！科技是第一生产力，是大国崛起和全球竞争的关键。</b></p>\n<p><b>金融是实体的血液，科技竞争，金融先行。哪个国家的资本市场更能服务创新，更能为高科技企业融资和发展提供便利，哪个国家的科技创新就更有可能快速进步，同时还能吸引其他国家和地区的高科技企业来本地上市。</b></p>\n<p><b>近年来美国纳斯达克也在不断进行制度创新，为中小科创企业上市提供更便捷的政策机制设计。</b>比如，近年来美国股市出现许多特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），成为许多企业借壳上市的“终南捷径”。其操作模式是：第一步，成立一个SPAC公司，向监管机构申请发股募资，但此时发起人持有的股票只能在限定市场上单独交易；第二步，在18~24个月内，管理团队找到一家可以收购的目标公司，全体股东投票，多数同意后完成收购，合并成新公司，股票就可以正式上市交易。发起人持有的股票等锁定期一过，就可以退出套现。SPAC模式能够让企业在短时间内实现上市，成本也比IPO、买壳上市/借壳上市更低。</p>\n<p><b>如今中国决策层已经彻底下定决心转型，告别以城镇化红利为基础的“房地产+土地财政”旧模式，塑造“硬科技+绿色低碳+支持民企小微”为三大支柱的新增长模式。</b></p>\n<p><b>为承接上述发展战略转型，目前国内需要一个聚焦服务创新型中小企业、承担培育一批专精特新中小企业使命的交易所，北京证券交易所的出现适应了时代的需要，也响应了全球科技竞争的需求。</b></p>\n<p><b>二、北京证券交易所并非“凭空出世”，而是北京长期以来科技创新支持政策内生进化的结果</b></p>\n<p>北京是中国创新企业和金融资源高度集中的城市，纵观北京科技创新领域的政策演进路径可以发现，<b>在每一个重要的历史关口，北京都推出了重大的政策和制度创新：</b></p>\n<p>在上世纪八九十年代，随着美国互联网科技产业兴起，北京建立了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">中关村</a>，成为我国科教智力和人才资源最为密集的区域，被称为“中国硅谷”。</p>\n<p>2006年，中关村科技园区非上市股份公司进入代办转让系统进行股份报价转让，称为“新三板”。</p>\n<p>2020年7月27日，新三板精选层设立暨首批企业晋层仪式在全国股转公司挂牌大厅举行，首批32家公司已全部完成公开发行程序，精选层正式设立并开市交易。</p>\n<p><b>如今，在精选层进行了一年多的试点的基础上，以精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，可谓“水到渠成”。</b></p>\n<p><b>从北京产业转型升级的方向来看，数字经济、科技创新是重要的支撑，北京证券交易所的设立，对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00925\">北京建设</a>具有全球影响力的金融中心、科技创新中心具有重大意义。</b></p>\n<p><b>三、北京证券交易所最值得期待的是制度建设能否再做突破创新</b></p>\n<p><b>中国已有沪深两大交易所，设立北京证券交易所的最大看点并不是又多了一家交易所，其最值得期待的是未来还会有哪些制度创新！</b></p>\n<p>此前很长一段时间，中国股市没有实行注册制、无法让同股不同权的企业上市、无法让未盈利的高科技企业上市。科创板的推出解决了注册制的问题，同时为未盈利的高科技企业上市创造了条件。北京证券交易所进一步放宽了创新型中小企业上升的市值、财务条件，企业上市融资更加便捷。</p>\n<p><b>从目前监管披露的信息来看，北京证券交易所的初期规划是新三板的延伸：</b>以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，总体平移精选层各项基础制度，坚持北京证券交易所上市公司由创新层公司产生，维持新三板基础层、创新层与北京证券交易所“层层递进”的市场结构，同步试点证券发行注册制。</p>\n<p>此前新三板精选层也设计了向科创板、创业板转板上市的制度，但成功转板上市的企业有限。以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，不仅有利于增强新三板挂牌企业股权的流动性和上市渠道，还是为了“打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地”，“培育一批专精特新中小企业”。</p>\n<p><b>从新三板精选层和科创板挂牌/上市的条件和门槛来看，精选层的对企业市值条件、财务条件的要求更加宽松，更有利于中小科创企业的上市。</b></p>\n<p><b>未来北京证券交易所是否能有更多的制度创新？能否进一步推动中国股票市场的改革进程？值得我们期待。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24adac74431844c001244acdf21f3ca0\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>四、北京证券交易所的设立将带来PE基金行业的颠覆性变革</b></p>\n<p>北京证券交易所的设立，有利于创新型中小企业上市，活跃股票交易市场，有利于券商承销业务和经纪业务收入增长，因此，周五开盘后券商股集体大涨。</p>\n<p>但我们认为，<b>北京证券交易所的设立对券商股的利好非常有限，充其量也就是喝点“汤”。北京证券交易所设立的最大受益者或者说“吃肉的”是PE/VC基金，一级PE基金黄金时代可期待来临。</b></p>\n<p>过去 PE/VC投资的退出渠道比较匮乏，基本上需要等到被投企业IPO上市后才能顺畅地退出。但以前企业在A股上市门槛高、周期长，而一般的PE基金的存续期限往往只有3—7年。</p>\n<p>为了保证在基金存续期结束时能够顺利退出、给投资人兑现收益，中国的PE基金往往只能陪跑“后半场”，在企业成长到一定规模、能够在较短的时间内上市时才介入；部分企业在中国面临上市难的问题，最后会选择VIE架构去美国或香港上市，让PE基金得以退出。</p>\n<p><b>随着科创板推出、创业板注册制改革、北京证券交易所设立，创新型中小企业上市更加便捷，条件放宽，可以在企业发展的较早阶段上市，能够缓解过去PE基金产品期限和被投公司上市期限不匹配的难题，改变中国PE基金扎堆投pre-IPO或临近上市轮现象。创新型中小企业上市不再需要完整走完天使轮—A轮—B轮—C轮—D轮—……—IPO的漫长过程，从而促使更多的PE基金在投资端前移，也可以促进VC投资的发展。</b></p>\n<p><b>北京证券交易所的设立，还改变了一级市场PE基金生存的底层逻辑，未来将颠覆目前的行业生态。</b>目前的PE、VC市场，呈现出两极分化的状态：一大批初创企业争相求着头部PE基金投资，而一大批中小PE基金则求着明星项目要份额；头部PE基金募资能力强，中小PE基金若无特殊资源则很难找到LP。未来创新型中小企业上市更加容易，有利于专业化、特色型中小PE基金的生存发展，有望改变头部大型PE基金垄断主导权的行业生态。</p>","source":"lsy1568619116533","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n北京证券交易所来了！谁的“大肉”，谁的“汤”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 10:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lqSPqmgOxaUC0SuD0zmyPQ><strong>海清FICC频道</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。\n一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择\n当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太空探索技术、生物医药技术为引领的科技革命正在到来。\n在中国经济高质量发展、产业转型升级和全球产业竞争中，科技创新的竞争是核心。中国能否在这一场科技竞争中取得先发优势，不仅仅决定了中国能否解决关键技术“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lqSPqmgOxaUC0SuD0zmyPQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5481d622d7bc535b67b2738f86cc0db","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lqSPqmgOxaUC0SuD0zmyPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103617448","content_text":"9月2日晚，中央宣布将深化新三板改革，设立北京证券交易所，打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地。\n一、设立北京证券交易所是大国博弈、“科技兴邦”的战略抉择\n当前，一场以数字经济、芯片、人工智能、新能源技术、太空探索技术、生物医药技术为引领的科技革命正在到来。\n在中国经济高质量发展、产业转型升级和全球产业竞争中，科技创新的竞争是核心。中国能否在这一场科技竞争中取得先发优势，不仅仅决定了中国能否解决关键技术“卡脖子”的短期问题，还决定了未来谁是全球产业经济的“领头羊”、21世纪是谁的世纪的长期问题。\n从历史上大国崛起的过程来看，科技是根本驱动力：\n英国借助蒸汽机的领先优势率先开始了第一次工业革命，成为世界霸主；\n美德在内燃机、电气化领域弯道超车超过英国，引领了第二次工业革命，取代了英国的地位；\n二战后美国在原子能、生物医药、航空航天、计算机等领域引领了第三次工业革命，进一步巩固了其全球科技领头羊地位和世界霸主地位。\n在上世纪八九十年代的美日贸易战中，除了“广场协议”这一表面因素和直接诱因外，美国最终能够胜过日本的关键也在于两国在经济发展驱动力选择上的根本差异：\n日本因循传统的主办银行制度，支持传统的大型制造业企业和房地产行业发展，其金融体制不适应科技创新的需要。在广场协议后，日元升值、出口受挫，日本更是直接通过货币大放水刺激起股市泡沫和房市泡沫，催生出“虚假的繁荣”。\n美国通过纳斯达克市场为科技创新企业提供便利的融资环境，硅谷发展起来，培育了一大批后来的互联网企业。\n到了九十年代，日本房市和股市泡沫破裂，经济陷入“失去的二十年”；美国厚积薄发，互联网革命兴起，出现“新经济繁荣”。日本在美日竞争中彻底出局。\n大国博弈，科技定乾坤！科技是第一生产力，是大国崛起和全球竞争的关键。\n金融是实体的血液，科技竞争，金融先行。哪个国家的资本市场更能服务创新，更能为高科技企业融资和发展提供便利，哪个国家的科技创新就更有可能快速进步，同时还能吸引其他国家和地区的高科技企业来本地上市。\n近年来美国纳斯达克也在不断进行制度创新，为中小科创企业上市提供更便捷的政策机制设计。比如，近年来美国股市出现许多特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），成为许多企业借壳上市的“终南捷径”。其操作模式是：第一步，成立一个SPAC公司，向监管机构申请发股募资，但此时发起人持有的股票只能在限定市场上单独交易；第二步，在18~24个月内，管理团队找到一家可以收购的目标公司，全体股东投票，多数同意后完成收购，合并成新公司，股票就可以正式上市交易。发起人持有的股票等锁定期一过，就可以退出套现。SPAC模式能够让企业在短时间内实现上市，成本也比IPO、买壳上市/借壳上市更低。\n如今中国决策层已经彻底下定决心转型，告别以城镇化红利为基础的“房地产+土地财政”旧模式，塑造“硬科技+绿色低碳+支持民企小微”为三大支柱的新增长模式。\n为承接上述发展战略转型，目前国内需要一个聚焦服务创新型中小企业、承担培育一批专精特新中小企业使命的交易所，北京证券交易所的出现适应了时代的需要，也响应了全球科技竞争的需求。\n二、北京证券交易所并非“凭空出世”，而是北京长期以来科技创新支持政策内生进化的结果\n北京是中国创新企业和金融资源高度集中的城市，纵观北京科技创新领域的政策演进路径可以发现，在每一个重要的历史关口，北京都推出了重大的政策和制度创新：\n在上世纪八九十年代，随着美国互联网科技产业兴起，北京建立了中关村，成为我国科教智力和人才资源最为密集的区域，被称为“中国硅谷”。\n2006年，中关村科技园区非上市股份公司进入代办转让系统进行股份报价转让，称为“新三板”。\n2020年7月27日，新三板精选层设立暨首批企业晋层仪式在全国股转公司挂牌大厅举行，首批32家公司已全部完成公开发行程序，精选层正式设立并开市交易。\n如今，在精选层进行了一年多的试点的基础上，以精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，可谓“水到渠成”。\n从北京产业转型升级的方向来看，数字经济、科技创新是重要的支撑，北京证券交易所的设立，对于北京建设具有全球影响力的金融中心、科技创新中心具有重大意义。\n三、北京证券交易所最值得期待的是制度建设能否再做突破创新\n中国已有沪深两大交易所，设立北京证券交易所的最大看点并不是又多了一家交易所，其最值得期待的是未来还会有哪些制度创新！\n此前很长一段时间，中国股市没有实行注册制、无法让同股不同权的企业上市、无法让未盈利的高科技企业上市。科创板的推出解决了注册制的问题，同时为未盈利的高科技企业上市创造了条件。北京证券交易所进一步放宽了创新型中小企业上升的市值、财务条件，企业上市融资更加便捷。\n从目前监管披露的信息来看，北京证券交易所的初期规划是新三板的延伸：以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，总体平移精选层各项基础制度，坚持北京证券交易所上市公司由创新层公司产生，维持新三板基础层、创新层与北京证券交易所“层层递进”的市场结构，同步试点证券发行注册制。\n此前新三板精选层也设计了向科创板、创业板转板上市的制度，但成功转板上市的企业有限。以现有的新三板精选层为基础组建北京证券交易所，不仅有利于增强新三板挂牌企业股权的流动性和上市渠道，还是为了“打造服务创新型中小企业主阵地”，“培育一批专精特新中小企业”。\n从新三板精选层和科创板挂牌/上市的条件和门槛来看，精选层的对企业市值条件、财务条件的要求更加宽松，更有利于中小科创企业的上市。\n未来北京证券交易所是否能有更多的制度创新？能否进一步推动中国股票市场的改革进程？值得我们期待。\n\n四、北京证券交易所的设立将带来PE基金行业的颠覆性变革\n北京证券交易所的设立，有利于创新型中小企业上市，活跃股票交易市场，有利于券商承销业务和经纪业务收入增长，因此，周五开盘后券商股集体大涨。\n但我们认为，北京证券交易所的设立对券商股的利好非常有限，充其量也就是喝点“汤”。北京证券交易所设立的最大受益者或者说“吃肉的”是PE/VC基金，一级PE基金黄金时代可期待来临。\n过去 PE/VC投资的退出渠道比较匮乏，基本上需要等到被投企业IPO上市后才能顺畅地退出。但以前企业在A股上市门槛高、周期长，而一般的PE基金的存续期限往往只有3—7年。\n为了保证在基金存续期结束时能够顺利退出、给投资人兑现收益，中国的PE基金往往只能陪跑“后半场”，在企业成长到一定规模、能够在较短的时间内上市时才介入；部分企业在中国面临上市难的问题，最后会选择VIE架构去美国或香港上市，让PE基金得以退出。\n随着科创板推出、创业板注册制改革、北京证券交易所设立，创新型中小企业上市更加便捷，条件放宽，可以在企业发展的较早阶段上市，能够缓解过去PE基金产品期限和被投公司上市期限不匹配的难题，改变中国PE基金扎堆投pre-IPO或临近上市轮现象。创新型中小企业上市不再需要完整走完天使轮—A轮—B轮—C轮—D轮—……—IPO的漫长过程，从而促使更多的PE基金在投资端前移，也可以促进VC投资的发展。\n北京证券交易所的设立，还改变了一级市场PE基金生存的底层逻辑，未来将颠覆目前的行业生态。目前的PE、VC市场，呈现出两极分化的状态：一大批初创企业争相求着头部PE基金投资，而一大批中小PE基金则求着明星项目要份额；头部PE基金募资能力强，中小PE基金若无特殊资源则很难找到LP。未来创新型中小企业上市更加容易，有利于专业化、特色型中小PE基金的生存发展，有望改变头部大型PE基金垄断主导权的行业生态。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812762910,"gmtCreate":1630625934330,"gmtModify":1632470107449,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087626034255720","idStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>value stock.[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>value stock.[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$OCDX(OCDX)$value stock.[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecc6c8cfb3883e5b34823002eed45dde","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812762910","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":822044812,"gmtCreate":1634081925247,"gmtModify":1634081925357,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good. 👍&nbsp;","listText":"Good. 👍&nbsp;","text":"Good. 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822044812","repostId":"1188785088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188785088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634052465,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188785088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到 2030 年达到 2,500 美元的道路</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188785088","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla experienced explosive gains last year.\nThis year, the stock has struggled, but the co","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla experienced explosive gains last year.</li>  <li>This year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.</li>  <li>Better-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.</li>  <li>I suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207deb1c8eb2af0f4c49abcb18226dd4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉去年经历了爆炸性增长。</li><li>今年，该股表现挣扎，但该公司正走在正确的轨道上。</li><li>好于预期的生产和交付数据表明该股可能会在年底走高。</li><li>我怀疑特斯拉还有更多上涨空间，该股未来几年可能会达到 2,500 美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.</p><p><blockquote>我长期以来一直看好特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）。很难相信，但我第一次购买特斯拉股票是在八年前，当时股价在拆分调整后的 30 美元左右。现在，大约上涨了 2,500%，我仍然做多特斯拉，我认为这只股票还有更多上涨空间。特斯拉仍然是利润丰厚的电动汽车领域的领导者。该公司可以说拥有最好的产品，由最先进的技术驱动。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.</p><p><blockquote>此外，特斯拉拥有一套独特的竞争优势，该公司利用这些优势年复一年地保持竞争领先地位。特斯拉刚刚公布了出色的交付和生产数据，本季度可能会超出分析师的预期，随着我们的发展，该公司具有巨大的收入和每股收益增长潜力。虽然我们不会很快看到特斯拉股价再上涨 2,500%，但该股可能会在年底或明年初达到 1,000 美元。此外，特斯拉股价在未来几年也可能大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Setup</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术设置</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabe94c8ac775d6a4113df03ad66ffdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Stockcharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Stockcharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年和去年年底都表现出色。随后该股经历了约 40% 的大幅回调，跌至 550 美元水平。在这次大幅回调之后，特斯拉股价成功重新测试了 550 美元的水平。此后，该股一直处于稳定、简洁、上升的通道中。目前的走高趋势应该会持续下去，直到看涨趋势打破。然而，看涨趋势强劲，到今年年底可能会推动特斯拉股价达到 1,000 美元。此外，该公司目前拥有众多有利的基本面因素来配合建设性的技术设置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Edge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.</p><p><blockquote>相对于同行，特斯拉继续享有多方面的竞争优势。其营销、销售、软件开发、电池生产、增压、设计、开发和生产的方法为特斯拉提供了相对于竞争对手的显着优势。特斯拉从头开始设计和交付一切，该公司始终专注于在电动汽车领域的创新方面保持领先地位。然而，大多数传统汽车制造商仍然主要专注于内燃机汽车，并且仍然转向电动汽车。底线是，电动汽车市场的份额不断超过传统内燃机市场，而特斯拉是电动汽车领域的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global EV Market Share First Half of 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年上半年全球电动汽车市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460efe2072a471a917fc24f40e742d6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: statista.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：statista.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Deliveries Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量激增</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of&nbsp;241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a&nbsp;20% increase&nbsp;over the last quarter and a remarkable&nbsp;73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉刚刚宣布第三季度交付量再创历史新高，达到 241,300 辆，比上一季度增长 20%，同比大幅增长 73%。特斯拉共交付了9,275辆S/X型车以及232,025辆主流Model 3/Y型车。现在，如果我们对租赁车辆进行调整，我们将在第三季度销售约7,420辆Model S/X车辆，销售约218,104辆Model 3/Y车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Last quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for&nbsp;$9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.</p><p><blockquote>上季度（2021 年第二季度），特斯拉总共售出（不包括租赁）约 187,163 辆汽车，价值 98.74 亿美元。这张销售图片表明所有车辆的平均售价（“ASP”）约为 53,000 美元。特斯拉在第二季度售出了约 1,550 辆 Model S/X 汽车。因此，如果我们估计 Model S/X 汽车销售的平均售价约为 100,000 - 110,000 美元，那么 Model 3/Y 细分市场的平均售价约为 52,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了获得第三季度特斯拉汽车销量的大致数字，我们可以对该季度销售的7,420辆Model S/X汽车使用105,000美元的平均售价，对第三季度交付的218,104辆Model 3/Y汽车使用52,000美元的平均售价。这一估计给了我们大约8亿美元的Model S/X销售额和113.4亿美元的Model 3/Y销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 Earnings Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Last quarter, Tesla delivered&nbsp;$1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.</p><p><blockquote>上季度，特斯拉每股收益为 1.45 美元，比分析师普遍预测高出约 0.47 美元或 48%。该公司宣布营收为 119.6 亿美元，同时超出预期 5.5933 亿美元。现在，对于第三季度，普遍预期每股收益为 1.47 美元，收入为 134.9 亿美元。不过，我认为特斯拉也会打败这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>My Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的估计：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49202e7907ab71b56fdc7a9bd908431d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"975\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.</p><p><blockquote>我希望的收入不是 134.9 亿美元，而是 147.4 亿美元，比普遍预期增长约 9%。此外，我认为我们可以看到特斯拉第三季度非 GAAP 每股收益约为 1.85 美元，比当前共识数据所暗示的高出约 26%。如果特斯拉第三季度业绩明显好于预期，该股将成为年底上涨的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bright Future Ahead for Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉前景光明</b></blockquote></p><p> Estimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been&nbsp;26 upward revisions&nbsp;relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的估计正在上升。在过去90天内，有26次向上修正，而只有一次向下修正（2021财年）。尽管如此，估计可能会继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda469abb83b22a2a4505ae8d0373158\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我想提请大家注意最近几个季度的节拍数量。当然，特斯拉的盈利仍然有些波动，但很难否认最近好于预期的盈利增长。普遍预期过去四个季度的每股收益为 3.61 美元。然而，该公司的实际每股收益为 3.94 美元，比市场普遍预期平均高出约 9%。我们已经看到同比大幅增长的估计，但我认为随着我们的进展，结果可能会继续强于预期（约 10-20%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9918909984b4de589a4266c10f2a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3215da27370b6e97c23883ece163f6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计特斯拉未来几年的每股收益和收入将大幅增长。虽然该股目前看起来相对昂贵，但随着未来几年每股收益的飙升，该股的成本应该会越来越低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4392b7b8eeb3a6fc412f6cd79fe9e44e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是特斯拉未来几年的每股收益、市盈率和股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e110af6b9747752c5a540bdb00c5a4\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稳定强劲的每股收益增长趋势应该会持续下去，我预计该公司的股价到本十年末可能会达到 2,500 美元或更高。现在，一些市场参与者可能会认为这些股价预测是乐观的。不过，我认为这些预测可能相对温和。首先，该公司未来几年的每股收益可能会高于我的预期，其次，特斯拉的市盈率可能会在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Due to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，由于特斯拉独特的增长势头，唯一能与特斯拉相提并论的公司是亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）。亚马逊目前的估值是更成熟的特斯拉估值可能达到的水平。顺便说一句，亚马逊目前的市盈率约为每股收益的 58 倍，这正是我 2029 年特斯拉市盈率的预期。此外，预计股价升值幅度仅为当前水平的 220%，如果考虑到年数，这是相对温和的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉 2,500 美元目标价面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，当你谈论特斯拉时，有风险需要考虑。虽然我估计该公司到 2030 年每股收益将接近 50 美元，但该公司目前距离这样的数字还很远。因此，特斯拉存在无法体现我所设想的盈利增长的风险。需求放缓、竞争加剧、供应问题、增长放缓和其他变量都是我们在押注特斯拉到 2030 年将每股收益增加近十倍之前应该考虑的风险。严重的担忧可能会导致特斯拉的估值失去高度，如果出现任何严重问题，该公司的股价甚至可能倒挂。因此，我认为在向特斯拉投资投入任何资金之前，应该仔细考虑风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到 2030 年达到 2,500 美元的道路</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到 2030 年达到 2,500 美元的道路</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla experienced explosive gains last year.</li>  <li>This year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.</li>  <li>Better-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.</li>  <li>I suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207deb1c8eb2af0f4c49abcb18226dd4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉去年经历了爆炸性增长。</li><li>今年，该股表现挣扎，但该公司正走在正确的轨道上。</li><li>好于预期的生产和交付数据表明该股可能会在年底走高。</li><li>我怀疑特斯拉还有更多上涨空间，该股未来几年可能会达到 2,500 美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.</p><p><blockquote>我长期以来一直看好特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）。很难相信，但我第一次购买特斯拉股票是在八年前，当时股价在拆分调整后的 30 美元左右。现在，大约上涨了 2,500%，我仍然做多特斯拉，我认为这只股票还有更多上涨空间。特斯拉仍然是利润丰厚的电动汽车领域的领导者。该公司可以说拥有最好的产品，由最先进的技术驱动。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.</p><p><blockquote>此外，特斯拉拥有一套独特的竞争优势，该公司利用这些优势年复一年地保持竞争领先地位。特斯拉刚刚公布了出色的交付和生产数据，本季度可能会超出分析师的预期，随着我们的发展，该公司具有巨大的收入和每股收益增长潜力。虽然我们不会很快看到特斯拉股价再上涨 2,500%，但该股可能会在年底或明年初达到 1,000 美元。此外，特斯拉股价在未来几年也可能大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Setup</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术设置</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabe94c8ac775d6a4113df03ad66ffdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Stockcharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Stockcharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年和去年年底都表现出色。随后该股经历了约 40% 的大幅回调，跌至 550 美元水平。在这次大幅回调之后，特斯拉股价成功重新测试了 550 美元的水平。此后，该股一直处于稳定、简洁、上升的通道中。目前的走高趋势应该会持续下去，直到看涨趋势打破。然而，看涨趋势强劲，到今年年底可能会推动特斯拉股价达到 1,000 美元。此外，该公司目前拥有众多有利的基本面因素来配合建设性的技术设置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Edge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.</p><p><blockquote>相对于同行，特斯拉继续享有多方面的竞争优势。其营销、销售、软件开发、电池生产、增压、设计、开发和生产的方法为特斯拉提供了相对于竞争对手的显着优势。特斯拉从头开始设计和交付一切，该公司始终专注于在电动汽车领域的创新方面保持领先地位。然而，大多数传统汽车制造商仍然主要专注于内燃机汽车，并且仍然转向电动汽车。底线是，电动汽车市场的份额不断超过传统内燃机市场，而特斯拉是电动汽车领域的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global EV Market Share First Half of 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年上半年全球电动汽车市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460efe2072a471a917fc24f40e742d6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: statista.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：statista.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Deliveries Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量激增</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of&nbsp;241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a&nbsp;20% increase&nbsp;over the last quarter and a remarkable&nbsp;73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉刚刚宣布第三季度交付量再创历史新高，达到 241,300 辆，比上一季度增长 20%，同比大幅增长 73%。特斯拉共交付了9,275辆S/X型车以及232,025辆主流Model 3/Y型车。现在，如果我们对租赁车辆进行调整，我们将在第三季度销售约7,420辆Model S/X车辆，销售约218,104辆Model 3/Y车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Last quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for&nbsp;$9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.</p><p><blockquote>上季度（2021 年第二季度），特斯拉总共售出（不包括租赁）约 187,163 辆汽车，价值 98.74 亿美元。这张销售图片表明所有车辆的平均售价（“ASP”）约为 53,000 美元。特斯拉在第二季度售出了约 1,550 辆 Model S/X 汽车。因此，如果我们估计 Model S/X 汽车销售的平均售价约为 100,000 - 110,000 美元，那么 Model 3/Y 细分市场的平均售价约为 52,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了获得第三季度特斯拉汽车销量的大致数字，我们可以对该季度销售的7,420辆Model S/X汽车使用105,000美元的平均售价，对第三季度交付的218,104辆Model 3/Y汽车使用52,000美元的平均售价。这一估计给了我们大约8亿美元的Model S/X销售额和113.4亿美元的Model 3/Y销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 Earnings Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Last quarter, Tesla delivered&nbsp;$1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.</p><p><blockquote>上季度，特斯拉每股收益为 1.45 美元，比分析师普遍预测高出约 0.47 美元或 48%。该公司宣布营收为 119.6 亿美元，同时超出预期 5.5933 亿美元。现在，对于第三季度，普遍预期每股收益为 1.47 美元，收入为 134.9 亿美元。不过，我认为特斯拉也会打败这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>My Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的估计：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49202e7907ab71b56fdc7a9bd908431d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"975\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.</p><p><blockquote>我希望的收入不是 134.9 亿美元，而是 147.4 亿美元，比普遍预期增长约 9%。此外，我认为我们可以看到特斯拉第三季度非 GAAP 每股收益约为 1.85 美元，比当前共识数据所暗示的高出约 26%。如果特斯拉第三季度业绩明显好于预期，该股将成为年底上涨的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bright Future Ahead for Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉前景光明</b></blockquote></p><p> Estimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been&nbsp;26 upward revisions&nbsp;relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的估计正在上升。在过去90天内，有26次向上修正，而只有一次向下修正（2021财年）。尽管如此，估计可能会继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda469abb83b22a2a4505ae8d0373158\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我想提请大家注意最近几个季度的节拍数量。当然，特斯拉的盈利仍然有些波动，但很难否认最近好于预期的盈利增长。普遍预期过去四个季度的每股收益为 3.61 美元。然而，该公司的实际每股收益为 3.94 美元，比市场普遍预期平均高出约 9%。我们已经看到同比大幅增长的估计，但我认为随着我们的进展，结果可能会继续强于预期（约 10-20%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9918909984b4de589a4266c10f2a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3215da27370b6e97c23883ece163f6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计特斯拉未来几年的每股收益和收入将大幅增长。虽然该股目前看起来相对昂贵，但随着未来几年每股收益的飙升，该股的成本应该会越来越低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4392b7b8eeb3a6fc412f6cd79fe9e44e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是特斯拉未来几年的每股收益、市盈率和股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e110af6b9747752c5a540bdb00c5a4\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者资料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稳定强劲的每股收益增长趋势应该会持续下去，我预计该公司的股价到本十年末可能会达到 2,500 美元或更高。现在，一些市场参与者可能会认为这些股价预测是乐观的。不过，我认为这些预测可能相对温和。首先，该公司未来几年的每股收益可能会高于我的预期，其次，特斯拉的市盈率可能会在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Due to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，由于特斯拉独特的增长势头，唯一能与特斯拉相提并论的公司是亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）。亚马逊目前的估值是更成熟的特斯拉估值可能达到的水平。顺便说一句，亚马逊目前的市盈率约为每股收益的 58 倍，这正是我 2029 年特斯拉市盈率的预期。此外，预计股价升值幅度仅为当前水平的 220%，如果考虑到年数，这是相对温和的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉 2,500 美元目标价面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，当你谈论特斯拉时，有风险需要考虑。虽然我估计该公司到 2030 年每股收益将接近 50 美元，但该公司目前距离这样的数字还很远。因此，特斯拉存在无法体现我所设想的盈利增长的风险。需求放缓、竞争加剧、供应问题、增长放缓和其他变量都是我们在押注特斯拉到 2030 年将每股收益增加近十倍之前应该考虑的风险。严重的担忧可能会导致特斯拉的估值失去高度，如果出现任何严重问题，该公司的股价甚至可能倒挂。因此，我认为在向特斯拉投资投入任何资金之前，应该仔细考虑风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459378-tesla-path-to-2500-by-2030\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459378-tesla-path-to-2500-by-2030","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188785088","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla experienced explosive gains last year.\nThis year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.\nBetter-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.\nI suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty Images News\nI've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.\nAdditionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.\nTechnical Setup\nSource: Stockcharts.com\nTesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.\nCompetitive Edge\nTesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.\nGlobal EV Market Share First Half of 2021\nSource: statista.com\nDeliveries Surge\nTesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of 241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a 20% increase over the last quarter and a remarkable 73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.\nLast quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for $9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.\nTherefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.\nQ3 Earnings Outlook\nAnalysts Estimates:\nLast quarter, Tesla delivered $1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.\nMy Estimates:\nSource: Author's Material\nInstead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.\nBright Future Ahead for Tesla\nEstimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been 26 upward revisions relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nFirst, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nWe see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nHere is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.\nSource: Author's Material\nThe Bottom Line\nTesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.\nDue to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.\nRisks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target\nOf course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822042856,"gmtCreate":1634081816507,"gmtModify":1634081816648,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822042856","repostId":"2175132100","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823953488,"gmtCreate":1633573990461,"gmtModify":1633573990555,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823953488","repostId":"2173948202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823951198,"gmtCreate":1633574026362,"gmtModify":1633574026486,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823951198","repostId":"2173091029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867487657,"gmtCreate":1633308503140,"gmtModify":1633308528150,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867487657","repostId":"1186540865","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186540865","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633289898,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186540865?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 03:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: New issuers work up a sweat in a fitness-led 5 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO一周即将到来：新发行人在健身主导的5周IPO中大汗淋漓</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186540865","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"In the first full week of October, five IPOs are slated to raise $1.8 billion, led by two fitness co","content":"<p>In the first full week of October, five IPOs are slated to raise $1.8 billion, led by two fitness companies.</p><p><blockquote>在10月的第一周，由两家健身公司牵头的五起IPO预计将筹集18亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Fitness chain<b>Life Time Group Holdings</b>(LTH) plans to raise $901 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Taken private in 2015, Life Time operates more than 150 \"centers\" across 29 US states and one province in Canada, serving nearly 1.4 million individual members as of 7/31/21. While the company was hit hard by the pandemic, operations have since improved dramatically, with revenue quadrupling in the 2Q21.</p><p><blockquote>健身连锁<b>生命时代集团控股</b>(LTH)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集9.01亿美元。Life Time于2015年私有化，在美国29个州和加拿大一个省运营着150多个“中心”，截至2011年7月31日，为近140万个人会员提供服务。尽管该公司受到疫情的严重打击，但此后运营情况显着改善，2021年第二季度的收入翻了两番。</blockquote></p><p> Fitness equipment brand<b>iFIT Health &amp; Fitness</b>(IFIT) plans to raise $600 million at a $6.4 billion market cap. iFIT is the #1 provider of large fitness equipment in the US, selling under brands including iFIT, NordicTrack, ProForm, and Freemotion. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company serves a community of over 6.1 million members and 1.5 million subscribers in over 120 countries.</p><p><blockquote>健身器材品牌<b>iFIT健康与健身</b>(IFIT)计划以64亿美元的市值筹集6亿美元。iFIT是美国排名第一的大型健身器材供应商，销售品牌包括iFIT、NordicTrack、ProForm和Freemotion。该公司发展迅速，但尚未盈利，为120多个国家的超过610万会员和150万订户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Proteomics platform<b>IsoPlexis</b>(ISO) plans to raise $125 million at a $648 million market cap. IsoPlexis believes its platform is the first to employ both proteomics and single cell biology to characterize and link cellular function to patient outcomes. Fast growing and highly unprofitable, the company's platform has been adopted by the top 15 global biopharmas and nearly half of the comprehensive cancer centers in the US since its commercial launch in June 2018.</p><p><blockquote>蛋白质组学平台<b>等丛</b>(ISO)计划以6.48亿美元的市值筹集1.25亿美元。IsoPlexis认为其平台是第一个同时采用蛋白质组学和单细胞生物学来表征细胞功能并将其与患者结果联系起来的平台。自2018年6月商业推出以来，该公司的平台增长迅速且利润丰厚，已被全球15大生物制药公司和美国近一半的综合癌症中心采用。</blockquote></p><p> Biotech<b>Theseus Pharmaceuticals</b>(THRX) plans to raise $125 million at a $593 million market cap. Theseus’ lead candidate is a pan-variant inhibitor of all major classes of activating/resistance mutations of the KIT kinase for of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). The company recently submitted an IND for advanced GIST and plans to initiate a Phase 1/2 trial between late 4Q21 and mid 1Q22.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术<b>忒修斯制药公司</b>(THRX)计划以5.93亿美元的市值筹集1.25亿美元。Theseus的主要候选药物是胃肠道间质瘤(GIST)KIT激酶所有主要激活/耐药突变类别的泛变体抑制剂。该公司最近提交了高级GIST的IND，并计划在2021年第四季度晚期和2022年第一季度中部之间启动1/2期试验。</blockquote></p><p> Drug developer<b>Cingulate</b>(CING) plans to raise $50 million at a $225 million market cap. Its two candidates, CTx-1301 and CTx-1302, are being developed for the treatment of ADHD. The company announced positive results from a Phase 1/2 study of CTx-1301 in October 2020, and plans to initiate Phase 3 trials in the 4Q21 with results expected in late 2022.</p><p><blockquote>药物开发人员<b>扣带</b>(CING)计划以2.25亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。其两种候选药物CTx-1301和CTx-1302正在开发用于治疗ADHD。该公司于2020年10月宣布了CTX-1301 1/2期研究的积极结果，并计划在2021年第四季度启动3期试验，预计将于2022年底获得结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610fa042e4de459e4597ed8086743234\" tg-width=\"1894\" tg-height=\"912\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: New issuers work up a sweat in a fitness-led 5 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO一周即将到来：新发行人在健身主导的5周IPO中大汗淋漓</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: New issuers work up a sweat in a fitness-led 5 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO一周即将到来：新发行人在健身主导的5周IPO中大汗淋漓</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-04 03:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the first full week of October, five IPOs are slated to raise $1.8 billion, led by two fitness companies.</p><p><blockquote>在10月的第一周，由两家健身公司牵头的五起IPO预计将筹集18亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Fitness chain<b>Life Time Group Holdings</b>(LTH) plans to raise $901 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Taken private in 2015, Life Time operates more than 150 \"centers\" across 29 US states and one province in Canada, serving nearly 1.4 million individual members as of 7/31/21. While the company was hit hard by the pandemic, operations have since improved dramatically, with revenue quadrupling in the 2Q21.</p><p><blockquote>健身连锁<b>生命时代集团控股</b>(LTH)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集9.01亿美元。Life Time于2015年私有化，在美国29个州和加拿大一个省运营着150多个“中心”，截至2011年7月31日，为近140万个人会员提供服务。尽管该公司受到疫情的严重打击，但此后运营情况显着改善，2021年第二季度的收入翻了两番。</blockquote></p><p> Fitness equipment brand<b>iFIT Health &amp; Fitness</b>(IFIT) plans to raise $600 million at a $6.4 billion market cap. iFIT is the #1 provider of large fitness equipment in the US, selling under brands including iFIT, NordicTrack, ProForm, and Freemotion. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company serves a community of over 6.1 million members and 1.5 million subscribers in over 120 countries.</p><p><blockquote>健身器材品牌<b>iFIT健康与健身</b>(IFIT)计划以64亿美元的市值筹集6亿美元。iFIT是美国排名第一的大型健身器材供应商，销售品牌包括iFIT、NordicTrack、ProForm和Freemotion。该公司发展迅速，但尚未盈利，为120多个国家的超过610万会员和150万订户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Proteomics platform<b>IsoPlexis</b>(ISO) plans to raise $125 million at a $648 million market cap. IsoPlexis believes its platform is the first to employ both proteomics and single cell biology to characterize and link cellular function to patient outcomes. Fast growing and highly unprofitable, the company's platform has been adopted by the top 15 global biopharmas and nearly half of the comprehensive cancer centers in the US since its commercial launch in June 2018.</p><p><blockquote>蛋白质组学平台<b>等丛</b>(ISO)计划以6.48亿美元的市值筹集1.25亿美元。IsoPlexis认为其平台是第一个同时采用蛋白质组学和单细胞生物学来表征细胞功能并将其与患者结果联系起来的平台。自2018年6月商业推出以来，该公司的平台增长迅速且利润丰厚，已被全球15大生物制药公司和美国近一半的综合癌症中心采用。</blockquote></p><p> Biotech<b>Theseus Pharmaceuticals</b>(THRX) plans to raise $125 million at a $593 million market cap. Theseus’ lead candidate is a pan-variant inhibitor of all major classes of activating/resistance mutations of the KIT kinase for of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). The company recently submitted an IND for advanced GIST and plans to initiate a Phase 1/2 trial between late 4Q21 and mid 1Q22.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术<b>忒修斯制药公司</b>(THRX)计划以5.93亿美元的市值筹集1.25亿美元。Theseus的主要候选药物是胃肠道间质瘤(GIST)KIT激酶所有主要激活/耐药突变类别的泛变体抑制剂。该公司最近提交了高级GIST的IND，并计划在2021年第四季度晚期和2022年第一季度中部之间启动1/2期试验。</blockquote></p><p> Drug developer<b>Cingulate</b>(CING) plans to raise $50 million at a $225 million market cap. Its two candidates, CTx-1301 and CTx-1302, are being developed for the treatment of ADHD. The company announced positive results from a Phase 1/2 study of CTx-1301 in October 2020, and plans to initiate Phase 3 trials in the 4Q21 with results expected in late 2022.</p><p><blockquote>药物开发人员<b>扣带</b>(CING)计划以2.25亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。其两种候选药物CTx-1301和CTx-1302正在开发用于治疗ADHD。该公司于2020年10月宣布了CTX-1301 1/2期研究的积极结果，并计划在2021年第四季度启动3期试验，预计将于2022年底获得结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610fa042e4de459e4597ed8086743234\" tg-width=\"1894\" tg-height=\"912\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86747/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-New-issuers-work-up-a-sweat-in-a-fitness-led-5-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CING":"CINGULATE INC.","LTH":"Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.","THRX":"Theseus Pharmaceuticals, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86747/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-New-issuers-work-up-a-sweat-in-a-fitness-led-5-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186540865","content_text":"In the first full week of October, five IPOs are slated to raise $1.8 billion, led by two fitness companies.\nFitness chainLife Time Group Holdings(LTH) plans to raise $901 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Taken private in 2015, Life Time operates more than 150 \"centers\" across 29 US states and one province in Canada, serving nearly 1.4 million individual members as of 7/31/21. While the company was hit hard by the pandemic, operations have since improved dramatically, with revenue quadrupling in the 2Q21.\nFitness equipment brandiFIT Health & Fitness(IFIT) plans to raise $600 million at a $6.4 billion market cap. iFIT is the #1 provider of large fitness equipment in the US, selling under brands including iFIT, NordicTrack, ProForm, and Freemotion. Fast growing and unprofitable, the company serves a community of over 6.1 million members and 1.5 million subscribers in over 120 countries.\nProteomics platformIsoPlexis(ISO) plans to raise $125 million at a $648 million market cap. IsoPlexis believes its platform is the first to employ both proteomics and single cell biology to characterize and link cellular function to patient outcomes. Fast growing and highly unprofitable, the company's platform has been adopted by the top 15 global biopharmas and nearly half of the comprehensive cancer centers in the US since its commercial launch in June 2018.\nBiotechTheseus Pharmaceuticals(THRX) plans to raise $125 million at a $593 million market cap. Theseus’ lead candidate is a pan-variant inhibitor of all major classes of activating/resistance mutations of the KIT kinase for of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). The company recently submitted an IND for advanced GIST and plans to initiate a Phase 1/2 trial between late 4Q21 and mid 1Q22.\nDrug developerCingulate(CING) plans to raise $50 million at a $225 million market cap. Its two candidates, CTx-1301 and CTx-1302, are being developed for the treatment of ADHD. The company announced positive results from a Phase 1/2 study of CTx-1301 in October 2020, and plans to initiate Phase 3 trials in the 4Q21 with results expected in late 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CING":0.9,"IFIT":0.9,"THRX":0.9,"ISO":0.9,"LTH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817758590,"gmtCreate":1630991462510,"gmtModify":1632904722686,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for information.&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for information.&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for information. [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817758590","repostId":"2165880909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822729954,"gmtCreate":1634172316289,"gmtModify":1634172316289,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>going up to next support level?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>going up to next support level?","text":"$OCDX(OCDX)$going up to next support level?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839f4396150379bc10c4deccfdd043e3","width":"1080","height":"2259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822729954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823951859,"gmtCreate":1633574046718,"gmtModify":1633574046852,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823951859","repostId":"1173147867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":812762910,"gmtCreate":1630625934330,"gmtModify":1632470107449,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>value stock.[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCDX\">$OCDX(OCDX)$</a>value stock.[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$OCDX(OCDX)$value stock.[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecc6c8cfb3883e5b34823002eed45dde","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812762910","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607882952,"gmtCreate":1639525150368,"gmtModify":1639525150449,"author":{"id":"4087626034255720","authorId":"4087626034255720","name":"yiyu81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4778d04c7fcd1247b57df255ae536876","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087626034255720","authorIdStr":"4087626034255720"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607882952","repostId":"1168111596","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168111596","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639524397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168111596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 07:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi: Beaten Down Badly, We See Big Time Gains Ahead<blockquote>SoFi：遭受重创，我们看到未来将有巨大的收获</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168111596","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.\nAt these levels and below, it ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.</li>  <li>At these levels and below, it is a solid investment, but also once again a trading opportunity.</li>  <li>SOFI truly has a competitive advantage as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.</li>  <li>The most recent quarter was decent, a banking charter is nigh, and this is going to be a winner you should own.</li>  <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing. </li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们已经成功地多次交易了这只股票。</li><li>在这些水平及以下，这是一项可靠的投资，但也再次是一个交易机会。</li><li>SOFI 确实拥有竞争优势，因为其横向整合产品横跨金融科技和银行业的许多领域。</li><li>最近一个季度表现不错，银行特许即将到来，这将是你应该拥有的赢家。</li><li>这个想法与我的私人投资社区BAD BEAT Investing的成员进行了更深入的讨论。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> We recommend buying SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on this most recent selloff. We think the stock is at levels that are strong buys. Period. End of the column. That was easy. But in all seriousness, while having traded this name successfully multiple times, we felt it prudent to put out another piece on the ticker to inform our readers that it is setup once again as both a long-term winner if you enter here, and has the potential for a rapid-return swing trade. While the market has many concerns, with this pullback and considering the most recent earnings, the company is moving right along. We fully believe this will be a solid winner. You should own it.</p><p><blockquote>我们建议在最近的抛售中买入 SoFi Technologies (SOFI)。我们认为该股处于强力买入的水平。周期。列的末尾。这很容易。但说真的，虽然我们已经多次成功交易了这个名字，但我们认为谨慎的做法是在股票代码上发布另一篇文章，告知我们的读者，如果您进入这里，它将再次成为长期赢家，并且有可能进行快速回报的波段交易。虽然市场有很多担忧，但随着这次回调并考虑到最近的收益，该公司正在向前发展。我们完全相信这将是一个坚实的赢家。你应该拥有它。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is down hard from recent highs just weeks ago. Admittedly there may be some volatility, but we think the play is definitely to buy some now, and God willing if this drops more, buy it up.</p><p><blockquote>该股从几周前的近期高点大幅下跌。诚然，可能会有一些波动，但我们认为现在绝对是买入一些，上帝保佑，如果价格下跌更多，就买入。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, there have been some other great companies we still love that are new and growing and the stocks have struggled. We think it's good to go.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，我们仍然喜欢其他一些伟大的公司，它们是新的和不断发展的，但股票一直在苦苦挣扎。我们觉得可以走了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这出戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Buy 1: $14.30</p><p><blockquote>购买1：14.30美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 2: $14.00</p><p><blockquote>购买2：14.00美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 3: $13.50</p><p><blockquote>购买3：13.50美元</blockquote></p><p> Shorter term profit target: $16.50-$17.00</p><p><blockquote>短期利润目标：16.50-17.00 美元</blockquote></p><p> Traders who need a stop should look to jump ship on negative momentum at under 13.00, but we think it is a mistake frankly. Build a position for the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>需要止损的交易者应该考虑在 13.00 以下的负动量跳槽，但坦率地说，我们认为这是一个错误。建立长期头寸。</blockquote></p><p> For call options, consider the January 2023 $15 strike.</p><p><blockquote>对于看涨期权期权，请考虑 2023 年 1 月 15 美元的罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discussion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>讨论</b></blockquote></p><p> The story of SOFI remains a great one. We know many who have used it in the years past, as they had attractive rates, terms, and made finance by the people, at least in the messaging. Here we are at the end of 2021, and SOFI now represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry.</p><p><blockquote>索菲的故事仍然很棒。我们知道许多人在过去几年中使用过它，因为他们有吸引人的利率、条款，并且由人们资助，至少在信息传递方面是这样。现在是2021年底，SOFI现在代表了下一代银行业，并在不断增长的金融科技行业中发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> The stock got hit hard when SoftBank recently sold a massive stake. SoFi was also a bit of collateral damage in a recent New York court case, where a New York judge declined to approve Renren's (NYSE:RENN) settlement with shareholders who accused RENN insiders of taking the company's portfolio for themselves in 2018. The portfolio included a large stake in SoFi. Generally speaking, fintech has been weak of late. In fact, a lot of specialty tech has been hammered as we have noted in our chat boards, while the NASDAQ 100 index is largely holding up thanks to mega cap tech.</p><p><blockquote>软银最近出售了大量股份，该股遭受重创。在最近的纽约法庭案件中，SoFi 也受到了一些附带损害，纽约法官拒绝批准人人网 (NYSE:RENN) 与指控 RENN 内部人士在 2018 年将公司投资组合据为己有的股东达成的和解。该投资组合包括 SoFi 的大量股份。总体而言，金融科技近期表现疲软。事实上，正如我们在聊天板上指出的那样，许多专业技术都受到了打击，而纳斯达克 100 指数在很大程度上得益于 mega cap tech。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless of the short term, when you look at SoFi, you have to be amazed at the growth they have shown! They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector. They have blossomed and now offer products ranging from personal loans, home loans, and even insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.</p><p><blockquote>不管短期如何，当你看着SoFi时，你不得不对他们表现出的增长感到惊讶!他们最初是学生贷款市场的一个简单贷款提供商，后来扩大了他们的服务范围，涵盖了消费金融领域的大量服务。他们已经蓬勃发展，现在提供的产品范围从个人贷款、住房贷款，甚至保险、信用卡服务、现金管理、经纪服务，最近还为企业提供支付和金融服务API。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们在一个应用程序中的多样化和集成服务生态系统为SOFI带来了巨大的用户增长，因为越来越沮丧的传统银行客户选择转向SOFI以获得便利。</blockquote></p><p> What we love about this company is that it has such a low cost to acquire customers, but makes what a bank makes margin wise with loans. The combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. What is more, since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that comes in and the buys into high-value loans now increases significantly compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means. In fact, it can increase 180%:</p><p><blockquote>我们喜欢这家公司的一点是，它获取客户的成本非常低，但却像银行一样明智地利用贷款。在同一个应用程序上结合低价值金融产品和高价值贷款，增加了客户交叉购买这些贷款的机会。此外，由于客户是以低成本获得其低价值产品的，与通过传统方式获得相同贷款客户相比，每个客户的可变利润和购买高价值贷款的金额现在显著增加。事实上，它可以增加180%：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e035dbd338ffdd698ad348e03cc7886\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is absolutely winning. The long-term potential here cannot be understated. That said, the most recent quarter was quite decent.</p><p><blockquote>这绝对是赢了。这里的长期潜力不可低估。也就是说，最近一个季度的表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue was $272.0 million in Q3 2021 which was up 35% from the corresponding prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, net revenue was $277.2 million, a record high for Q3, and 28% higher than last year's $216.8. Revenues were also up sequentially from Q2. There was continued strength in all three of SoFi's business segments, leading to these solid results, and the top line beat consensus estimates handily by $21.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第三季度总收入为 2.72 亿美元，比去年同期增长 35%。调整后，净收入为 2.772 亿美元，创第三季度历史新高，比去年的 216.8 美元高出 28%。收入也较第二季度环比增长。SoFi 的所有三个业务部门都持续强劲，取得了这些稳健的业绩，营收轻松超出市场普遍预期 2160 万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Now the major complaint of course for the relatively new public company is that it is not consistently making money on the bottom line. But it will folks. Indeed, SoFi saw $30.0 million net loss for the Q3 2021, compared to a net loss of $42.9 million in last year's quarter.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对于这家相对较新的上市公司来说，主要的抱怨是它没有持续盈利。但是会的，伙计们。事实上，SoFi 2021 年第三季度净亏损 3000 万美元，而去年同期净亏损 4290 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The one thing to remember here is that the acquisition of Galileo was costly, and they lowered their valuation allowance. Just something to keep in mind. Anyway, we are pleased to see another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. It came in at of $10.3 million, and was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter, due to the combination of higher revenues across business segments, though this was a touch offset by increased spending to achieve incremental growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里要记住的一件事是，收购伽利略的成本很高，他们降低了估值津贴。只是要记住的事情。无论如何，我们很高兴看到另一个季度的调整后 EBITDA 为正。由于各业务部门收入增加，该利润为 1030 万美元，连续第五个季度为正，尽管这被为实现增量增长而增加的支出所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> One of the most critical items we noted was SOFI continues to accelerate its year-over-year growth in both members and total products in the quarter. This is key. Total members grew 96% year-over-year to 2.9 million, up from 1.5 million at the same point last year, and total products grew 105% to 3.3 million at quarter-end compared to 2.3 million at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>我们注意到的最重要的项目之一是 SOFI 本季度会员和产品总量继续加速同比增长。这是关键。会员总数同比增长 96%，达到 290 万，高于去年同期的 150 万，季度末产品总数增长 105%，达到 330 万，而去年同期为 230 万。</blockquote></p><p> This is so critical to understand. The business metrics are largely improving, regardless of the stock moves. The stock is not the company. The company is not the stock. But the stock will recognize the moves in metrics eventually as the noise settles down and things improve. Growth in the member base and products continues to be driven by significant expansion in the offerings across business segments, particularly in the Financial Services segment, where growth in SoFi Invest and SoFi Money offerings more than doubled the number of Financial Services segment products, to nearly 3.2 million, up from approximately 1.2 million, at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>理解这一点非常重要。无论股票走势如何，业务指标都在很大程度上有所改善。股票不是公司。公司不是股票。但随着噪音的平息和情况的改善，该股最终会认识到指标的变化。会员基础和产品的增长继续受到各业务部门产品大幅扩张的推动，特别是在金融服务部门，SoFi Invest 和 SoFi Money 产品的增长使金融服务部门产品数量增加了一倍多，达到近 320 万个，去年同期约为 120 万个。</blockquote></p><p> As of the end of Q3, Financial Services segment products were nearly three times the number of Lending products.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，金融服务板块产品数量几乎是贷款产品数量的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Growth in personal and student loans largely drove the 15% year-over-year increase in Lending segment products.</p><p><blockquote>个人和学生贷款的增长在很大程度上推动了贷款部门产品的同比增长 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Technology Platform accounts increased by 80% to nearly 89 million. All of this is solid growth. The results versus guidance are a key communication from the company that we love to see. It helps hold them accountable.</p><p><blockquote>技术平台账户增长80%，达到近8900万。所有这些都是稳健的增长。结果与指导是我们喜欢看到的公司的关键沟通。这有助于让他们承担责任。</blockquote></p><p> We won't go incredibly deeper into the numbers but the key here is that the company's performance trounced guidance all around. We do not think management sandbags in order to beat either. The company is simply growing solidly.</p><p><blockquote>我们不会深入探讨这些数字，但这里的关键是该公司的业绩全面超出了指引。我们不认为管理沙袋是为了击败任何人。该公司正在稳步发展。</blockquote></p><p> That said, management expects continued strong growth to finish the year. For Q4, they see expected adjusted net revenue of $272 to $282 million and expected adjusted EBITDA of $2 million to $3 million. That is strong growth on the top line:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，管理层预计今年年底将继续强劲增长。对于第四季度，他们预计调整后净收入为 2.72 亿至 2.82 亿美元，预计调整后 EBITDA 为 200 万至 300 万美元。这是营收的强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d39f813c57f0aa872bee7e405db85a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company also raised its guidance. We love it when companies raise guidance:</p><p><blockquote>该公司还提高了指引。我们喜欢公司提出指导意见：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e250a317e08abf380a453e23c6e97b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sure, there is a lot of noise around what will happen with rates, and the Fed, and with COVID and the economy. But in perspective, higher rates are good for companies that lend money, so long as they are securing funding at a nominal rate and profiting from a spread. The company sees annual performance being strong thanks to year-to-date performance and a strong Q4. We are most excited by seeing the company break a billion in revenues this year, with EBITDA possibly breaking $30 million. Growth from here is all but guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>当然，关于利率、美联储、新冠疫情和经济将会发生什么，有很多噪音。但从长远来看，较高的利率对放贷公司来说是有利的，只要它们以名义利率获得资金并从利差中获利。由于年初至今的业绩和强劲的第四季度，该公司认为年度业绩强劲。我们最兴奋的是看到该公司今年的收入突破 10 亿美元，EBITDA 可能突破 3000 万美元。从这里开始的增长几乎是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing we want to point out again is how the extension of the government's student loan moratorium has hindered the company. But that is coming to an end. While that was costly in 2021, we expect that 2022 will see a nice boost in repayment. So keep that in mind.</p><p><blockquote>我们想再次指出的一件事是，政府学生贷款暂停期的延长如何阻碍了该公司。但这即将结束。虽然 2021 年的成本很高，但我们预计 2022 年还款将大幅增加。所以请记住这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Then there is of course the bank charter, which we see as very likely. For more on this, please see the many columns on SoFi on Seeking Alpha discussing this. We will say that as they have applied for a national bank license, if they get it, there are so many other products they could offer in addition to some other innovative things they could try as it relates to banking products.</p><p><blockquote>当然还有银行章程，我们认为这是很有可能的。有关这方面的更多信息，请查看SoFi上关于Seeking Alpha讨论这方面的许多专栏。我们要说的是，由于他们已经申请了国家银行许可证，如果他们获得了许可证，除了一些与银行产品相关的其他创新产品之外，他们还可以提供许多其他产品。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a risk to the stock and to the company's growth would be if they were straight up denied a banking charter. That would hurt potential growth and we could see the stock being sold off pretty hard.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果他们被直接拒绝银行执照，股票和公司的增长将面临风险。这将损害潜在增长，我们可能会看到该股被严重抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Another risk is if the government comes in and tries to regulate the massive uptick in the number of companies offering customers access to trading, or otherwise tries to limit individuals from trading. A lot of money is made from trading/investing, so any regulation here that limits this could be detrimental. Traders should keep their ears and eyes on the regulatory wire for anything that could hurt SoFi or its competitors in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>另一个风险是，如果政府介入并试图监管向客户提供交易机会的公司数量的大幅增加，或者以其他方式试图限制个人交易。很多钱都是从交易/投资中赚的，所以任何限制这一点的法规都可能是有害的。交易者应密切关注监管机构，寻找任何可能在这方面损害 SoFi 或其竞争对手的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Take home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>带回家</b></blockquote></p><p> While the company and stock are not risk-free, the pullback has been massive. The secondary, as well as institutional selling, along with broader fintech weakness, has set up a great trading opportunity here. Take advantage of the selloff here and you will thank yourself down the road for buying this gem.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司和股票并非没有风险，但回调幅度巨大。二级市场以及机构抛售，以及更广泛的金融科技疲软，在这里创造了一个巨大的交易机会。利用这里的抛售，你会感谢自己购买了这颗宝石。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi: Beaten Down Badly, We See Big Time Gains Ahead<blockquote>SoFi：遭受重创，我们看到未来将有巨大的收获</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi: Beaten Down Badly, We See Big Time Gains Ahead<blockquote>SoFi：遭受重创，我们看到未来将有巨大的收获</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 07:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.</li>  <li>At these levels and below, it is a solid investment, but also once again a trading opportunity.</li>  <li>SOFI truly has a competitive advantage as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.</li>  <li>The most recent quarter was decent, a banking charter is nigh, and this is going to be a winner you should own.</li>  <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing. </li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们已经成功地多次交易了这只股票。</li><li>在这些水平及以下，这是一项可靠的投资，但也再次是一个交易机会。</li><li>SOFI 确实拥有竞争优势，因为其横向整合产品横跨金融科技和银行业的许多领域。</li><li>最近一个季度表现不错，银行特许即将到来，这将是你应该拥有的赢家。</li><li>这个想法与我的私人投资社区BAD BEAT Investing的成员进行了更深入的讨论。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> We recommend buying SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on this most recent selloff. We think the stock is at levels that are strong buys. Period. End of the column. That was easy. But in all seriousness, while having traded this name successfully multiple times, we felt it prudent to put out another piece on the ticker to inform our readers that it is setup once again as both a long-term winner if you enter here, and has the potential for a rapid-return swing trade. While the market has many concerns, with this pullback and considering the most recent earnings, the company is moving right along. We fully believe this will be a solid winner. You should own it.</p><p><blockquote>我们建议在最近的抛售中买入 SoFi Technologies (SOFI)。我们认为该股处于强力买入的水平。周期。列的末尾。这很容易。但说真的，虽然我们已经多次成功交易了这个名字，但我们认为谨慎的做法是在股票代码上发布另一篇文章，告知我们的读者，如果您进入这里，它将再次成为长期赢家，并且有可能进行快速回报的波段交易。虽然市场有很多担忧，但随着这次回调并考虑到最近的收益，该公司正在向前发展。我们完全相信这将是一个坚实的赢家。你应该拥有它。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is down hard from recent highs just weeks ago. Admittedly there may be some volatility, but we think the play is definitely to buy some now, and God willing if this drops more, buy it up.</p><p><blockquote>该股从几周前的近期高点大幅下跌。诚然，可能会有一些波动，但我们认为现在绝对是买入一些，上帝保佑，如果价格下跌更多，就买入。</blockquote></p><p> Make no mistake, there have been some other great companies we still love that are new and growing and the stocks have struggled. We think it's good to go.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，我们仍然喜欢其他一些伟大的公司，它们是新的和不断发展的，但股票一直在苦苦挣扎。我们觉得可以走了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这出戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Buy 1: $14.30</p><p><blockquote>购买1：14.30美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 2: $14.00</p><p><blockquote>购买2：14.00美元</blockquote></p><p> Buy 3: $13.50</p><p><blockquote>购买3：13.50美元</blockquote></p><p> Shorter term profit target: $16.50-$17.00</p><p><blockquote>短期利润目标：16.50-17.00 美元</blockquote></p><p> Traders who need a stop should look to jump ship on negative momentum at under 13.00, but we think it is a mistake frankly. Build a position for the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>需要止损的交易者应该考虑在 13.00 以下的负动量跳槽，但坦率地说，我们认为这是一个错误。建立长期头寸。</blockquote></p><p> For call options, consider the January 2023 $15 strike.</p><p><blockquote>对于看涨期权期权，请考虑 2023 年 1 月 15 美元的罢工。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discussion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>讨论</b></blockquote></p><p> The story of SOFI remains a great one. We know many who have used it in the years past, as they had attractive rates, terms, and made finance by the people, at least in the messaging. Here we are at the end of 2021, and SOFI now represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry.</p><p><blockquote>索菲的故事仍然很棒。我们知道许多人在过去几年中使用过它，因为他们有吸引人的利率、条款，并且由人们资助，至少在信息传递方面是这样。现在是2021年底，SOFI现在代表了下一代银行业，并在不断增长的金融科技行业中发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> The stock got hit hard when SoftBank recently sold a massive stake. SoFi was also a bit of collateral damage in a recent New York court case, where a New York judge declined to approve Renren's (NYSE:RENN) settlement with shareholders who accused RENN insiders of taking the company's portfolio for themselves in 2018. The portfolio included a large stake in SoFi. Generally speaking, fintech has been weak of late. In fact, a lot of specialty tech has been hammered as we have noted in our chat boards, while the NASDAQ 100 index is largely holding up thanks to mega cap tech.</p><p><blockquote>软银最近出售了大量股份，该股遭受重创。在最近的纽约法庭案件中，SoFi 也受到了一些附带损害，纽约法官拒绝批准人人网 (NYSE:RENN) 与指控 RENN 内部人士在 2018 年将公司投资组合据为己有的股东达成的和解。该投资组合包括 SoFi 的大量股份。总体而言，金融科技近期表现疲软。事实上，正如我们在聊天板上指出的那样，许多专业技术都受到了打击，而纳斯达克 100 指数在很大程度上得益于 mega cap tech。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless of the short term, when you look at SoFi, you have to be amazed at the growth they have shown! They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector. They have blossomed and now offer products ranging from personal loans, home loans, and even insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.</p><p><blockquote>不管短期如何，当你看着SoFi时，你不得不对他们表现出的增长感到惊讶!他们最初是学生贷款市场的一个简单贷款提供商，后来扩大了他们的服务范围，涵盖了消费金融领域的大量服务。他们已经蓬勃发展，现在提供的产品范围从个人贷款、住房贷款，甚至保险、信用卡服务、现金管理、经纪服务，最近还为企业提供支付和金融服务API。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience.</p><p><blockquote>当然，他们在一个应用程序中的多样化和集成服务生态系统为SOFI带来了巨大的用户增长，因为越来越沮丧的传统银行客户选择转向SOFI以获得便利。</blockquote></p><p> What we love about this company is that it has such a low cost to acquire customers, but makes what a bank makes margin wise with loans. The combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. What is more, since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that comes in and the buys into high-value loans now increases significantly compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means. In fact, it can increase 180%:</p><p><blockquote>我们喜欢这家公司的一点是，它获取客户的成本非常低，但却像银行一样明智地利用贷款。在同一个应用程序上结合低价值金融产品和高价值贷款，增加了客户交叉购买这些贷款的机会。此外，由于客户是以低成本获得其低价值产品的，与通过传统方式获得相同贷款客户相比，每个客户的可变利润和购买高价值贷款的金额现在显著增加。事实上，它可以增加180%：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e035dbd338ffdd698ad348e03cc7886\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is absolutely winning. The long-term potential here cannot be understated. That said, the most recent quarter was quite decent.</p><p><blockquote>这绝对是赢了。这里的长期潜力不可低估。也就是说，最近一个季度的表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenue was $272.0 million in Q3 2021 which was up 35% from the corresponding prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, net revenue was $277.2 million, a record high for Q3, and 28% higher than last year's $216.8. Revenues were also up sequentially from Q2. There was continued strength in all three of SoFi's business segments, leading to these solid results, and the top line beat consensus estimates handily by $21.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第三季度总收入为 2.72 亿美元，比去年同期增长 35%。调整后，净收入为 2.772 亿美元，创第三季度历史新高，比去年的 216.8 美元高出 28%。收入也较第二季度环比增长。SoFi 的所有三个业务部门都持续强劲，取得了这些稳健的业绩，营收轻松超出市场普遍预期 2160 万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Now the major complaint of course for the relatively new public company is that it is not consistently making money on the bottom line. But it will folks. Indeed, SoFi saw $30.0 million net loss for the Q3 2021, compared to a net loss of $42.9 million in last year's quarter.</p><p><blockquote>当然，对于这家相对较新的上市公司来说，主要的抱怨是它没有持续盈利。但是会的，伙计们。事实上，SoFi 2021 年第三季度净亏损 3000 万美元，而去年同期净亏损 4290 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> The one thing to remember here is that the acquisition of Galileo was costly, and they lowered their valuation allowance. Just something to keep in mind. Anyway, we are pleased to see another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. It came in at of $10.3 million, and was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter, due to the combination of higher revenues across business segments, though this was a touch offset by increased spending to achieve incremental growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里要记住的一件事是，收购伽利略的成本很高，他们降低了估值津贴。只是要记住的事情。无论如何，我们很高兴看到另一个季度的调整后 EBITDA 为正。由于各业务部门收入增加，该利润为 1030 万美元，连续第五个季度为正，尽管这被为实现增量增长而增加的支出所抵消。</blockquote></p><p> One of the most critical items we noted was SOFI continues to accelerate its year-over-year growth in both members and total products in the quarter. This is key. Total members grew 96% year-over-year to 2.9 million, up from 1.5 million at the same point last year, and total products grew 105% to 3.3 million at quarter-end compared to 2.3 million at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>我们注意到的最重要的项目之一是 SOFI 本季度会员和产品总量继续加速同比增长。这是关键。会员总数同比增长 96%，达到 290 万，高于去年同期的 150 万，季度末产品总数增长 105%，达到 330 万，而去年同期为 230 万。</blockquote></p><p> This is so critical to understand. The business metrics are largely improving, regardless of the stock moves. The stock is not the company. The company is not the stock. But the stock will recognize the moves in metrics eventually as the noise settles down and things improve. Growth in the member base and products continues to be driven by significant expansion in the offerings across business segments, particularly in the Financial Services segment, where growth in SoFi Invest and SoFi Money offerings more than doubled the number of Financial Services segment products, to nearly 3.2 million, up from approximately 1.2 million, at the same point last year.</p><p><blockquote>理解这一点非常重要。无论股票走势如何，业务指标都在很大程度上有所改善。股票不是公司。公司不是股票。但随着噪音的平息和情况的改善，该股最终会认识到指标的变化。会员基础和产品的增长继续受到各业务部门产品大幅扩张的推动，特别是在金融服务部门，SoFi Invest 和 SoFi Money 产品的增长使金融服务部门产品数量增加了一倍多，达到近 320 万个，去年同期约为 120 万个。</blockquote></p><p> As of the end of Q3, Financial Services segment products were nearly three times the number of Lending products.</p><p><blockquote>截至第三季度末，金融服务板块产品数量几乎是贷款产品数量的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Growth in personal and student loans largely drove the 15% year-over-year increase in Lending segment products.</p><p><blockquote>个人和学生贷款的增长在很大程度上推动了贷款部门产品的同比增长 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Technology Platform accounts increased by 80% to nearly 89 million. All of this is solid growth. The results versus guidance are a key communication from the company that we love to see. It helps hold them accountable.</p><p><blockquote>技术平台账户增长80%，达到近8900万。所有这些都是稳健的增长。结果与指导是我们喜欢看到的公司的关键沟通。这有助于让他们承担责任。</blockquote></p><p> We won't go incredibly deeper into the numbers but the key here is that the company's performance trounced guidance all around. We do not think management sandbags in order to beat either. The company is simply growing solidly.</p><p><blockquote>我们不会深入探讨这些数字，但这里的关键是该公司的业绩全面超出了指引。我们不认为管理沙袋是为了击败任何人。该公司正在稳步发展。</blockquote></p><p> That said, management expects continued strong growth to finish the year. For Q4, they see expected adjusted net revenue of $272 to $282 million and expected adjusted EBITDA of $2 million to $3 million. That is strong growth on the top line:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，管理层预计今年年底将继续强劲增长。对于第四季度，他们预计调整后净收入为 2.72 亿至 2.82 亿美元，预计调整后 EBITDA 为 200 万至 300 万美元。这是营收的强劲增长：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d39f813c57f0aa872bee7e405db85a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company also raised its guidance. We love it when companies raise guidance:</p><p><blockquote>该公司还提高了指引。我们喜欢公司提出指导意见：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e250a317e08abf380a453e23c6e97b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sure, there is a lot of noise around what will happen with rates, and the Fed, and with COVID and the economy. But in perspective, higher rates are good for companies that lend money, so long as they are securing funding at a nominal rate and profiting from a spread. The company sees annual performance being strong thanks to year-to-date performance and a strong Q4. We are most excited by seeing the company break a billion in revenues this year, with EBITDA possibly breaking $30 million. Growth from here is all but guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>当然，关于利率、美联储、新冠疫情和经济将会发生什么，有很多噪音。但从长远来看，较高的利率对放贷公司来说是有利的，只要它们以名义利率获得资金并从利差中获利。由于年初至今的业绩和强劲的第四季度，该公司认为年度业绩强劲。我们最兴奋的是看到该公司今年的收入突破 10 亿美元，EBITDA 可能突破 3000 万美元。从这里开始的增长几乎是有保证的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few catalysts and risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些催化剂和风险</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing we want to point out again is how the extension of the government's student loan moratorium has hindered the company. But that is coming to an end. While that was costly in 2021, we expect that 2022 will see a nice boost in repayment. So keep that in mind.</p><p><blockquote>我们想再次指出的一件事是，政府学生贷款暂停期的延长如何阻碍了该公司。但这即将结束。虽然 2021 年的成本很高，但我们预计 2022 年还款将大幅增加。所以请记住这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Then there is of course the bank charter, which we see as very likely. For more on this, please see the many columns on SoFi on Seeking Alpha discussing this. We will say that as they have applied for a national bank license, if they get it, there are so many other products they could offer in addition to some other innovative things they could try as it relates to banking products.</p><p><blockquote>当然还有银行章程，我们认为这是很有可能的。有关这方面的更多信息，请查看SoFi上关于Seeking Alpha讨论这方面的许多专栏。我们要说的是，由于他们已经申请了国家银行许可证，如果他们获得了许可证，除了一些与银行产品相关的其他创新产品之外，他们还可以提供许多其他产品。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a risk to the stock and to the company's growth would be if they were straight up denied a banking charter. That would hurt potential growth and we could see the stock being sold off pretty hard.</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果他们被直接拒绝银行执照，股票和公司的增长将面临风险。这将损害潜在增长，我们可能会看到该股被严重抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Another risk is if the government comes in and tries to regulate the massive uptick in the number of companies offering customers access to trading, or otherwise tries to limit individuals from trading. A lot of money is made from trading/investing, so any regulation here that limits this could be detrimental. Traders should keep their ears and eyes on the regulatory wire for anything that could hurt SoFi or its competitors in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>另一个风险是，如果政府介入并试图监管向客户提供交易机会的公司数量的大幅增加，或者以其他方式试图限制个人交易。很多钱都是从交易/投资中赚的，所以任何限制这一点的法规都可能是有害的。交易者应密切关注监管机构，寻找任何可能在这方面损害 SoFi 或其竞争对手的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Take home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>带回家</b></blockquote></p><p> While the company and stock are not risk-free, the pullback has been massive. The secondary, as well as institutional selling, along with broader fintech weakness, has set up a great trading opportunity here. Take advantage of the selloff here and you will thank yourself down the road for buying this gem.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司和股票并非没有风险，但回调幅度巨大。二级市场以及机构抛售，以及更广泛的金融科技疲软，在这里创造了一个巨大的交易机会。利用这里的抛售，你会感谢自己购买了这颗宝石。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475109-sofi-beaten-down-badly-we-see-big-time-gains-ahead\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475109-sofi-beaten-down-badly-we-see-big-time-gains-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168111596","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe have swing traded this stock successfully multiple times.\nAt these levels and below, it is a solid investment, but also once again a trading opportunity.\nSOFI truly has a competitive advantage as a result of its horizontally integrated offerings cutting across many areas of fintech and banking.\nThe most recent quarter was decent, a banking charter is nigh, and this is going to be a winner you should own.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing. \n\n\n\nWe recommend buying SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on this most recent selloff. We think the stock is at levels that are strong buys. Period. End of the column. That was easy. But in all seriousness, while having traded this name successfully multiple times, we felt it prudent to put out another piece on the ticker to inform our readers that it is setup once again as both a long-term winner if you enter here, and has the potential for a rapid-return swing trade. While the market has many concerns, with this pullback and considering the most recent earnings, the company is moving right along. We fully believe this will be a solid winner. You should own it.\n\nThe stock is down hard from recent highs just weeks ago. Admittedly there may be some volatility, but we think the play is definitely to buy some now, and God willing if this drops more, buy it up.\n\nMake no mistake, there have been some other great companies we still love that are new and growing and the stocks have struggled. We think it's good to go.\n\nThe play\nBuy 1: $14.30\n\nBuy 2: $14.00\n\nBuy 3: $13.50\n\nShorter term profit target: $16.50-$17.00\n\nTraders who need a stop should look to jump ship on negative momentum at under 13.00, but we think it is a mistake frankly. Build a position for the longer term.\n\nFor call options, consider the January 2023 $15 strike.\n\nDiscussion\nThe story of SOFI remains a great one. We know many who have used it in the years past, as they had attractive rates, terms, and made finance by the people, at least in the messaging. Here we are at the end of 2021, and SOFI now represents the next generation of banking, and plays into a growing fintech industry.\n\nThe stock got hit hard when SoftBank recently sold a massive stake. SoFi was also a bit of collateral damage in a recent New York court case, where a New York judge declined to approve Renren's (NYSE:RENN) settlement with shareholders who accused RENN insiders of taking the company's portfolio for themselves in 2018. The portfolio included a large stake in SoFi. Generally speaking, fintech has been weak of late. In fact, a lot of specialty tech has been hammered as we have noted in our chat boards, while the NASDAQ 100 index is largely holding up thanks to mega cap tech.\n\nRegardless of the short term, when you look at SoFi, you have to be amazed at the growth they have shown! They started off as a simple provider of loans in the student loan market, and have since expanded their offerings to encompass a large array of services in the consumer finance sector. They have blossomed and now offer products ranging from personal loans, home loans, and even insurance, credit card services, cash management, brokerage services and recently to payments and financial services APIs for enterprises.\n\nOf course, their diverse and integrated ecosystem of services in a single app has gotten SOFI tremendous user growth, as increasingly frustrated customers of traditional banks opt to switch to SOFI for the ease of convenience.\n\nWhat we love about this company is that it has such a low cost to acquire customers, but makes what a bank makes margin wise with loans. The combination of low-value financial products and high value loans on the same app increases the opportunity that its customers cross-buy into these loans. What is more, since the customer was acquired with low cost into its low-value offerings, the variable profit per customer that comes in and the buys into high-value loans now increases significantly compared to when obtaining that same loan customer through traditional means. In fact, it can increase 180%:\n\nThis is absolutely winning. The long-term potential here cannot be understated. That said, the most recent quarter was quite decent.\n\nTotal revenue was $272.0 million in Q3 2021 which was up 35% from the corresponding prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, net revenue was $277.2 million, a record high for Q3, and 28% higher than last year's $216.8. Revenues were also up sequentially from Q2. There was continued strength in all three of SoFi's business segments, leading to these solid results, and the top line beat consensus estimates handily by $21.6 million.\n\nNow the major complaint of course for the relatively new public company is that it is not consistently making money on the bottom line. But it will folks. Indeed, SoFi saw $30.0 million net loss for the Q3 2021, compared to a net loss of $42.9 million in last year's quarter.\n\nThe one thing to remember here is that the acquisition of Galileo was costly, and they lowered their valuation allowance. Just something to keep in mind. Anyway, we are pleased to see another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. It came in at of $10.3 million, and was positive for the fifth consecutive quarter, due to the combination of higher revenues across business segments, though this was a touch offset by increased spending to achieve incremental growth.\n\nOne of the most critical items we noted was SOFI continues to accelerate its year-over-year growth in both members and total products in the quarter. This is key. Total members grew 96% year-over-year to 2.9 million, up from 1.5 million at the same point last year, and total products grew 105% to 3.3 million at quarter-end compared to 2.3 million at the same point last year.\n\n\nThis is so critical to understand. The business metrics are largely improving, regardless of the stock moves. The stock is not the company. The company is not the stock. But the stock will recognize the moves in metrics eventually as the noise settles down and things improve. Growth in the member base and products continues to be driven by significant expansion in the offerings across business segments, particularly in the Financial Services segment, where growth in SoFi Invest and SoFi Money offerings more than doubled the number of Financial Services segment products, to nearly 3.2 million, up from approximately 1.2 million, at the same point last year.\n\nAs of the end of Q3, Financial Services segment products were nearly three times the number of Lending products.\n\nGrowth in personal and student loans largely drove the 15% year-over-year increase in Lending segment products.\n\nTechnology Platform accounts increased by 80% to nearly 89 million. All of this is solid growth. The results versus guidance are a key communication from the company that we love to see. It helps hold them accountable.\n\nWe won't go incredibly deeper into the numbers but the key here is that the company's performance trounced guidance all around. We do not think management sandbags in order to beat either. The company is simply growing solidly.\n\nThat said, management expects continued strong growth to finish the year. For Q4, they see expected adjusted net revenue of $272 to $282 million and expected adjusted EBITDA of $2 million to $3 million. That is strong growth on the top line:\n\nThe company also raised its guidance. We love it when companies raise guidance:\n\n\nSure, there is a lot of noise around what will happen with rates, and the Fed, and with COVID and the economy. But in perspective, higher rates are good for companies that lend money, so long as they are securing funding at a nominal rate and profiting from a spread. The company sees annual performance being strong thanks to year-to-date performance and a strong Q4. We are most excited by seeing the company break a billion in revenues this year, with EBITDA possibly breaking $30 million. Growth from here is all but guaranteed.\n\nA few catalysts and risks\nOne thing we want to point out again is how the extension of the government's student loan moratorium has hindered the company. But that is coming to an end. While that was costly in 2021, we expect that 2022 will see a nice boost in repayment. So keep that in mind.\n\nThen there is of course the bank charter, which we see as very likely. For more on this, please see the many columns on SoFi on Seeking Alpha discussing this. We will say that as they have applied for a national bank license, if they get it, there are so many other products they could offer in addition to some other innovative things they could try as it relates to banking products.\n\nOf course, a risk to the stock and to the company's growth would be if they were straight up denied a banking charter. That would hurt potential growth and we could see the stock being sold off pretty hard.\n\nAnother risk is if the government comes in and tries to regulate the massive uptick in the number of companies offering customers access to trading, or otherwise tries to limit individuals from trading. A lot of money is made from trading/investing, so any regulation here that limits this could be detrimental. Traders should keep their ears and eyes on the regulatory wire for anything that could hurt SoFi or its competitors in this regard.\n\nTake home\nWhile the company and stock are not risk-free, the pullback has been massive. The secondary, as well as institutional selling, along with broader fintech weakness, has set up a great trading opportunity here. Take advantage of the selloff here and you will thank yourself down the road for buying this gem.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}