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Viboon

Viboon

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2021-07-19

The earnings season has arrived. We must give time to choose the stocks to invest in.

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2021-07-21

Just find the new business opportunities to improve their continue growth such as gaming business but not easy....😅😅

Netflix Slides After Subscriber Guidance Misses Estimates<blockquote>订户指引未达预期后Netflix股价下滑</blockquote>

2021-10-19

👍

Amazon and others commit to using zero-carbon shipping fuels by 2040<blockquote>亚马逊等承诺到2040年使用零碳航运燃料</blockquote>

2021-07-13

It's a good start today for China stocks to the moon!!!

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2021-09-02

$Alibaba(BABA)$Long term investment!!!

2021-08-30

👍

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2021-08-22

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$Awaiting for Q2 earnings.♥️

2021-08-17

$Lam Research(LRCX)$😅

2021-07-10

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$EMA 12 BulEMA just cross EMA 50.Time to buy now!!!

2021-10-28

$XINYI SOLAR(00968)$👍

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agree ❤️","listText":"Totally agree ❤️","text":"Totally agree ❤️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693804040","repostId":"1183475424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183475424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639967829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183475424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183475424","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并为最早在3月份加息做准备。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景受到侵蚀，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍保持弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及AR/VR和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现更多增长。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但随着苹果估值接近3万亿美元，其看涨论点仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）今年以来涨幅接近40%。该股不久前曾达到182.13美元的峰值，目前距离成为第一家市值达到3万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到7%，仅占以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数约15%的业绩。自20世纪90年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了220倍以上，这得益于该公司不断抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面预计将帮助该股抵御明年即将加息的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来最热的水平，美联储周三决定将加快缩减每月1200亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从11月开始的每月150亿美元减少到每月300亿美元。这将有效地结束刺激计划，该计划是在3月份大流行开始时实施的，而不是最初计划的7月份。预计加息将很快开始，以应对不断上涨的物价压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减结束后才会以渐进的速度开始。最新的点阵图显示，从2022年初开始，联邦基金利率有可能从接近零的水平上升三个25个百分点，2023年再上升三个百分点，2024年再上升两个百分点。如果实现，这一过程将在2024年将基金利率提高至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者转向规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会加速侵蚀，以及资本成本上升导致业务增长停滞，尤其是高增长股票，但苹果在美联储发布后上涨了近3%关于政策收紧的最新消息。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。美联储更新后，苹果的上涨以及其他大型科技股的类似上涨趋势推动纳斯达克100指数盘中上涨2.4%，这表明投资者更愿意将资金投资于增长前景强劲的公司以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假期对苹果12月季度销售有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入3万亿美元区间。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购以及新的尖端产品预计在可预见的未来带来的额外收入贡献也将成为支持公司持续强劲的基本面并保持该股的关键催化剂尽管即将加息，但估值仍高于3万亿美元。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股12个月目标价上调至209.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年基本面前景概述和回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致商店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过90亿美元，但该公司今年的收入较2020财年增长了33%，达到3660亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年增长了20%以上。本年度的成功主要归功于一系列新产品的推出和功能升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone销量今年增长了39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，占苹果2021财年收入的一半以上。这一结果与去年移动设备需求下滑形成鲜明对比，当时消费者准备应对大流行带来的经济不确定性。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，预计未来几年iPhone销量将保持强劲。2022年可能推出的更实惠的支持5G的iPhone SE预计也将通过吸引“超过10亿非高端Android用户”的切换者来进一步提高苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向另一个历史新高。在推出支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s后，最近几个季度观察到的iPhone销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级者和转换者的数量以两位数强劲增长。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动iPhone的销售贡献。Verizon和AT&amp;T等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励迁移到他们在全国范围内花费数十亿美元建设的5G网络。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内斥资超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这突显出随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回成本，iPhone市场未来将面临巨大的额外增长机会。他们的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac和iPad的销售额在2021财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的352亿美元和319亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新的M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的M1处理器使最新的MacBook“在游戏之外的几乎所有生产力用例上都比任何基于英特尔的设备都好”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的难以置信的需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在9月份季度的Mac产品出货量超过320万台，这推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球PC销量中的排名提升至其他供应商中的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入M1处理器也增强了其在利用全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑需求激增方面的地位，使该公司能够构建具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以无缝集成到其周边配件和服务生态系统中，以吸引邻近收入。随着后大流行时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求预计将在未来几年保持高位——预计到2025年，这些行业的市场规模将分别增长到2243亿美元和6000亿美元，这为苹果的Mac和iPad市场带来了有利的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近关于苹果打算加强其内部芯片开发能力的猜测可能会在未来几年进一步推进其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的额外需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师来增强其在“无线电、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及“用于连接蓝牙和Wi-Fi的半导体”的开发能力。这些发展预计将进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为该公司“最宝贵的资产”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务业的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户基础使该部门在2021财年的收入达到创纪录的超过684亿美元，比上一年增长27%。迄今为止，苹果的高利润服务已吸引了超过7.45亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其各种服务平台（从苹果音乐到iCloud存储解决方案）中不断推动基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对关键消费者趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司快速增长的关键驱动力。-扩大利润。为现有服务平台推出的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品预计将进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品在全球使用不断增加所带来的邻近机会的覆盖范围，例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将以16%的复合年增长率扩张，预计未来五年价值将达到610亿美元，凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果One捆绑包预计将成为未来几年促进服务部门销售的关键贡献者，吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，如果没有捆绑折扣，他们就不会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将利好苹果快速增长的服务板块。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于AAPL拥有世界上最大和使用最多的应用商店之一，有理由假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果App Store涉嫌违反反垄断的审查越来越多——其中最引人注目的是与Epic Games正在进行的法律斗争——但该公司对确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性的持续关注可能会挽救局面。根据Morgan Stanley对美国和中国4000名苹果产品用户进行的一项调查，尽管开发者正在争取在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，但大多数用户都表示对苹果应用商店的忠诚度，因为它提供了“安全、隐私和交易便利性的价值”。作为Epic Games提起的长达一年的诉讼的一部分，苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers在9月份下令的App Store变更，这是App Store持续强劲的另一个迹象。该公司辩称，法院授权的允许App Store用户“直接从网络上的开发者那里购买”的命令将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达所有购买30%的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施App Store变更的最终决定可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，即苹果必须允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到App Store用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际的量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基础和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子和设备的先驱预计将在2023年初推出VR耳机和AR眼镜，这是一项新兴技术，近几个月来，随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，这项技术的发展势头越来越大。与市场上已有的大多数VR头显类似，苹果的将配备3D显示屏，为从游戏到交流的各种活动提供身临其境的环境。差异化因素将是该公司计划在设备中实现一流的图形芯片，以促进超高分辨率显示。即将推出的VR头显最终将为其AR眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是“更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为8000亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的70%以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的AR/VR耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与相关应用程序、软件和服务平台使用相关的邻近收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>对苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测预计也将在可预见的未来为该股带来有意义的上涨。该公司现在计划到2025年推出新的产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场的价值预计将达到2000亿美元以上。最终的汽车可能会向其现有产品组合致敬，例如“类似iPad的触摸屏”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了定制芯片的开发，用于为车辆的自动驾驶功能提供动力。据该州DMV称，最新的芯片将很快应用到其现有的改装SUV车队中，以便在加利福尼亚州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将推出。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了“随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对材料收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别发布的额外上行空间仍然缺失。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期AR/VR设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高1500亿美元。随着时间的推移，当元宇宙趋势继续获得主流关注时，苹果预计将从AR/VR领域获得超过2000亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值前景和即将加息的潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果2021财年年终业绩和12月季度指引的最新预测，我们的基本情况预测预计到2022财年末总净销售额为4393亿美元，到2026财年将进一步增长至6685亿美元。我们预测中应用于各部门收入的增长假设与我们对该股的最新分析基本保持不变，并额外考虑了管理层对供应限制影响和即将加息的近期前景。具体来说，2021财年下半年由于全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延迟造成的90亿美元收入损失（即6月季度约30亿美元，9月季度约60亿美元）预计将恶化2022财年上半年。尽管供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将导致未来几个季度销量损失更大。尽管如此，苹果仍为未来强劲的基本面做好了准备，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（苹果_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关所应用的材料增长假设的更多详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们将苹果股票的12个月目标价修正为209.43美元。基于12月17日171.14美元的最后交易价格，这意味着超过22%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期内的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析得出的，并结合前几节中分析的针对苹果近期发展更新的财务预测。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了8%的WACC来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司当前的资本结构和强劲的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务的很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在加息之前部署以实现额外增长，而不必产生增量资本成本。预计这将进一步巩固投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升带来的更广泛市场压力的情况下继续“转向优质股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为19.8倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品领域即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将加息的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述分析，预计未来两年在当前接近零的联邦基金利率基础上增加175至200个基点，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步增强该公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步增强其抵御更广泛的宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能会推动苹果的估值增长势头。考虑到这些因素，苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，尽管加息即将到来，但其近期仍强劲上涨至3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并为最早在3月份加息做准备。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景受到侵蚀，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍保持弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及AR/VR和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现更多增长。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但随着苹果估值接近3万亿美元，其看涨论点仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）今年以来涨幅接近40%。该股不久前曾达到182.13美元的峰值，目前距离成为第一家市值达到3万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到7%，仅占以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数约15%的业绩。自20世纪90年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了220倍以上，这得益于该公司不断抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面预计将帮助该股抵御明年即将加息的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来最热的水平，美联储周三决定将加快缩减每月1200亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从11月开始的每月150亿美元减少到每月300亿美元。这将有效地结束刺激计划，该计划是在3月份大流行开始时实施的，而不是最初计划的7月份。预计加息将很快开始，以应对不断上涨的物价压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减结束后才会以渐进的速度开始。最新的点阵图显示，从2022年初开始，联邦基金利率有可能从接近零的水平上升三个25个百分点，2023年再上升三个百分点，2024年再上升两个百分点。如果实现，这一过程将在2024年将基金利率提高至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者转向规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会加速侵蚀，以及资本成本上升导致业务增长停滞，尤其是高增长股票，但苹果在美联储发布后上涨了近3%关于政策收紧的最新消息。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。美联储更新后，苹果的上涨以及其他大型科技股的类似上涨趋势推动纳斯达克100指数盘中上涨2.4%，这表明投资者更愿意将资金投资于增长前景强劲的公司以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假期对苹果12月季度销售有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入3万亿美元区间。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购以及新的尖端产品预计在可预见的未来带来的额外收入贡献也将成为支持公司持续强劲的基本面并保持该股的关键催化剂尽管即将加息，但估值仍高于3万亿美元。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股12个月目标价上调至209.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年基本面前景概述和回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致商店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过90亿美元，但该公司今年的收入较2020财年增长了33%，达到3660亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年增长了20%以上。本年度的成功主要归功于一系列新产品的推出和功能升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone销量今年增长了39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，占苹果2021财年收入的一半以上。这一结果与去年移动设备需求下滑形成鲜明对比，当时消费者准备应对大流行带来的经济不确定性。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，预计未来几年iPhone销量将保持强劲。2022年可能推出的更实惠的支持5G的iPhone SE预计也将通过吸引“超过10亿非高端Android用户”的切换者来进一步提高苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向另一个历史新高。在推出支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s后，最近几个季度观察到的iPhone销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级者和转换者的数量以两位数强劲增长。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动iPhone的销售贡献。Verizon和AT&amp;T等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励迁移到他们在全国范围内花费数十亿美元建设的5G网络。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内斥资超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这突显出随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回成本，iPhone市场未来将面临巨大的额外增长机会。他们的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac和iPad的销售额在2021财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的352亿美元和319亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新的M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的M1处理器使最新的MacBook“在游戏之外的几乎所有生产力用例上都比任何基于英特尔的设备都好”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的难以置信的需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在9月份季度的Mac产品出货量超过320万台，这推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球PC销量中的排名提升至其他供应商中的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入M1处理器也增强了其在利用全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑需求激增方面的地位，使该公司能够构建具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以无缝集成到其周边配件和服务生态系统中，以吸引邻近收入。随着后大流行时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求预计将在未来几年保持高位——预计到2025年，这些行业的市场规模将分别增长到2243亿美元和6000亿美元，这为苹果的Mac和iPad市场带来了有利的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近关于苹果打算加强其内部芯片开发能力的猜测可能会在未来几年进一步推进其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的额外需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师来增强其在“无线电、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及“用于连接蓝牙和Wi-Fi的半导体”的开发能力。这些发展预计将进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为该公司“最宝贵的资产”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务业的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户基础使该部门在2021财年的收入达到创纪录的超过684亿美元，比上一年增长27%。迄今为止，苹果的高利润服务已吸引了超过7.45亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其各种服务平台（从苹果音乐到iCloud存储解决方案）中不断推动基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对关键消费者趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司快速增长的关键驱动力。-扩大利润。为现有服务平台推出的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品预计将进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品在全球使用不断增加所带来的邻近机会的覆盖范围，例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将以16%的复合年增长率扩张，预计未来五年价值将达到610亿美元，凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果One捆绑包预计将成为未来几年促进服务部门销售的关键贡献者，吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，如果没有捆绑折扣，他们就不会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将利好苹果快速增长的服务板块。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于AAPL拥有世界上最大和使用最多的应用商店之一，有理由假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果App Store涉嫌违反反垄断的审查越来越多——其中最引人注目的是与Epic Games正在进行的法律斗争——但该公司对确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性的持续关注可能会挽救局面。根据Morgan Stanley对美国和中国4000名苹果产品用户进行的一项调查，尽管开发者正在争取在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，但大多数用户都表示对苹果应用商店的忠诚度，因为它提供了“安全、隐私和交易便利性的价值”。作为Epic Games提起的长达一年的诉讼的一部分，苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers在9月份下令的App Store变更，这是App Store持续强劲的另一个迹象。该公司辩称，法院授权的允许App Store用户“直接从网络上的开发者那里购买”的命令将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达所有购买30%的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施App Store变更的最终决定可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，即苹果必须允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到App Store用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际的量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基础和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子和设备的先驱预计将在2023年初推出VR耳机和AR眼镜，这是一项新兴技术，近几个月来，随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，这项技术的发展势头越来越大。与市场上已有的大多数VR头显类似，苹果的将配备3D显示屏，为从游戏到交流的各种活动提供身临其境的环境。差异化因素将是该公司计划在设备中实现一流的图形芯片，以促进超高分辨率显示。即将推出的VR头显最终将为其AR眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是“更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为8000亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的70%以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的AR/VR耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与相关应用程序、软件和服务平台使用相关的邻近收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>对苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测预计也将在可预见的未来为该股带来有意义的上涨。该公司现在计划到2025年推出新的产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场的价值预计将达到2000亿美元以上。最终的汽车可能会向其现有产品组合致敬，例如“类似iPad的触摸屏”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了定制芯片的开发，用于为车辆的自动驾驶功能提供动力。据该州DMV称，最新的芯片将很快应用到其现有的改装SUV车队中，以便在加利福尼亚州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将推出。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了“随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对材料收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别发布的额外上行空间仍然缺失。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期AR/VR设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高1500亿美元。随着时间的推移，当元宇宙趋势继续获得主流关注时，苹果预计将从AR/VR领域获得超过2000亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值前景和即将加息的潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果2021财年年终业绩和12月季度指引的最新预测，我们的基本情况预测预计到2022财年末总净销售额为4393亿美元，到2026财年将进一步增长至6685亿美元。我们预测中应用于各部门收入的增长假设与我们对该股的最新分析基本保持不变，并额外考虑了管理层对供应限制影响和即将加息的近期前景。具体来说，2021财年下半年由于全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延迟造成的90亿美元收入损失（即6月季度约30亿美元，9月季度约60亿美元）预计将恶化2022财年上半年。尽管供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将导致未来几个季度销量损失更大。尽管如此，苹果仍为未来强劲的基本面做好了准备，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（苹果_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关所应用的材料增长假设的更多详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们将苹果股票的12个月目标价修正为209.43美元。基于12月17日171.14美元的最后交易价格，这意味着超过22%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期内的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析得出的，并结合前几节中分析的针对苹果近期发展更新的财务预测。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了8%的WACC来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司当前的资本结构和强劲的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务的很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在加息之前部署以实现额外增长，而不必产生增量资本成本。预计这将进一步巩固投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升带来的更广泛市场压力的情况下继续“转向优质股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为19.8倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品领域即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将加息的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述分析，预计未来两年在当前接近零的联邦基金利率基础上增加175至200个基点，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步增强该公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步增强其抵御更广泛的宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能会推动苹果的估值增长势头。考虑到这些因素，苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，尽管加息即将到来，但其近期仍强劲上涨至3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183475424","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.\nWhile rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.\nApple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.\nIts strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.\nAs such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.\n\nguvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAs one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.\nAnd Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.\nSource: Bloomberg\nWhile rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.\nWith the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.\nFY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects\nFiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.\nKey Developments in Products\niPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.\nMac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.\nRecent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.\nKey Developments in Services\nOn the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.\nContinued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.\nCurrently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.\nKey Catalysts Ahead\nApple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.\nOver the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.\nSpeculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.\nWhile Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.\nValuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases\nAdjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.\n\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.\nDrawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nThe revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.\nThe valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635866554,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101901401?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超2%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101901401","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Wall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.NVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 bill","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价涨超2%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cba7404008cd93258b0ffcb352a81ce2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>随着NVDA下一次收益报告日期的临近，华尔街将寻求NVDA的积极态度。这预计是2021年11月17日。在该报告中，分析师预计NVDA每股收益为1.11美元。这将标志着同比增长52.05%。我们最新的普遍预期是季度营收为68.3亿美元，比去年同期增长44.46%。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +65.6% and +54.96%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA的Zacks全年一致预期为每股收益4.14美元，营收为258.4亿美元。这些结果将分别代表+65.6%和+54.96%的同比变化。</blockquote></p><p> Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for NVDA. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能还会注意到分析师对NVDA的预期最近发生的变化。这些修订有助于显示近期业务趋势不断变化的性质。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超2%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超2%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-02 23:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价涨超2%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cba7404008cd93258b0ffcb352a81ce2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>随着NVDA下一次收益报告日期的临近，华尔街将寻求NVDA的积极态度。这预计是2021年11月17日。在该报告中，分析师预计NVDA每股收益为1.11美元。这将标志着同比增长52.05%。我们最新的普遍预期是季度营收为68.3亿美元，比去年同期增长44.46%。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +65.6% and +54.96%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA的Zacks全年一致预期为每股收益4.14美元，营收为258.4亿美元。这些结果将分别代表+65.6%和+54.96%的同比变化。</blockquote></p><p> Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for NVDA. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能还会注意到分析师对NVDA的预期最近发生的变化。这些修订有助于显示近期业务趋势不断变化的性质。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101901401","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high.\n\nWall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.\nNVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +65.6% and +54.96%, respectively.\nInvestors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for NVDA. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843291092,"gmtCreate":1635829266641,"gmtModify":1635829266776,"author":{"id":"4087270675600580","authorId":"4087270675600580","name":"Viboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d09f36a9730d96a3396498f4bc5453b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087270675600580","idStr":"4087270675600580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843291092","repostId":"2180788344","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849498951,"gmtCreate":1635771876497,"gmtModify":1635771876631,"author":{"id":"4087270675600580","authorId":"4087270675600580","name":"Viboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d09f36a9730d96a3396498f4bc5453b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087270675600580","idStr":"4087270675600580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">$XINYI SOLAR(00968)$</a>♥️","text":"$XINYI SOLAR(00968)$♥️","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ab44d55d24fdf2182f46f04bd8f91b2","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854434471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173587844,"gmtCreate":1626670426488,"gmtModify":1633925044945,"author":{"id":"4087270675600580","authorId":"4087270675600580","name":"Viboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d09f36a9730d96a3396498f4bc5453b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087270675600580","authorIdStr":"4087270675600580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The earnings season has arrived. We must give time to choose the stocks to invest in.","listText":"The earnings season has arrived. We must give time to choose the stocks to invest in.","text":"The earnings season has arrived. We must give time to choose the stocks to invest in.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173587844","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176945337,"gmtCreate":1626857421529,"gmtModify":1631883986792,"author":{"id":"4087270675600580","authorId":"4087270675600580","name":"Viboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d09f36a9730d96a3396498f4bc5453b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087270675600580","authorIdStr":"4087270675600580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just find the new business opportunities to improve their continue growth such as gaming business but not easy....😅😅","listText":"Just find the new business opportunities to improve their continue growth such as gaming business but not easy....😅😅","text":"Just find the new business opportunities to improve their continue growth such as gaming business but not easy....😅😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176945337","repostId":"1183563723","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183563723","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626853969,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183563723?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 15:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Slides After Subscriber Guidance Misses Estimates<blockquote>订户指引未达预期后Netflix股价下滑</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183563723","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Recent earnings reports from streaming giant $Netflix$ have been a mixed bag: the stock tumbled three quarters ago when the company reported earnings for its first full \"post Corona\" quarter and warned that\"growth is slowing\",before againplunging three quarters agowhen the company reported a huge miss in both EPS and new subs, which at 2.2 million was tied for the worst quarter in the past five years, while also reporting a worse than expected outlook for the current quarter. This reversedtwo qu","content":"<p>Recent earnings reports from streaming giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> have been a mixed bag: the stock tumbled three quarters ago when the company reported earnings for its first full \"post Corona\" quarter and warned that<i>\"growth is slowing\",</i>before againplunging three quarters agowhen the company reported a huge miss in both EPS and new subs, which at 2.2 million was tied for the worst quarter in the past five years, while also reporting a worse than expected outlook for the current quarter. This reversedtwo quarters agowhen Netflix reported a blowout subscriber beat and projected it would soon be cash flow positive, sending its stock soaring to an all time high - if only briefly before again reversing and then tumblinglast quarterwhen Netflix again disappointed when it reported a huge subscriber miss and giving dismal guidance.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体巨头最近的收益报告<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>情况好坏参半：三个季度前，当该公司公布第一个完整的“后电晕”季度收益时，该股暴跌，并警告称<i>“增长放缓”，</i>在三个季度前再次暴跌之前，该公司报告每股收益和新潜艇均大幅下滑，为220万辆，并列过去五年来最糟糕的季度，同时还报告了本季度的前景差于预期。两个季度前，这种情况发生了逆转，当时Netflix报告订户数量井喷，并预计很快就会实现正现金流，导致其股价飙升至历史新高——即使只是短暂的，然后再次逆转，然后暴跌。上个季度，Netflix报告订户数量巨大，再次感到失望。错过并给出令人沮丧的指导。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fe65be48d8a2ae27f38c5f2f476d77\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which brings us to today, when investors are on edge today to find out not whether the company would beat or miss expectations, but rather if the slowdown CEO Reed Hastings warned about is for real and has pulled forward even more subscribers due to covid? After all, Netflix has been warning for months that growth would slow in 2021 compared to the phenomenal signup rate at the start of the pandemic lockdown last year. And yes, brace for a huge base effect hit:<i>in the second quarter of 2020, the service added 10 million new customers, second only to the 15.77 million it added in the record first quarter of 2020.</i></p><p><blockquote>这就把我们带到了今天，投资者今天紧张地想知道的不是该公司是否会超出或低于预期，而是首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯警告的经济放缓是否是真的，并且由于新冠疫情而吸引了更多的订户？毕竟，Netflix几个月来一直警告称，与去年大流行封锁开始时惊人的注册率相比，2021年的增长将放缓。是的，准备好迎接巨大的基础效应吧：<i>2020年第二季度，该服务新增客户1000万，仅次于创纪录的2020年第一季度新增的1577万。</i></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, despite a series of hit or miss earnings, the company has been riding a wave of optimism, its stock soaring in early 2021. Still, after hitting to a record high in January, the stock has traded rangbeound, unable to break out to a new high, for the past seven months. And while there’s no doubt that viewership has surged during the Covid-19 lockdowns in the U.S. and much of the world, there are complications: the virus has brought TV and film production to a halt, a situation that may only get more dire for Netflix as the months wear on. But the biggest question remains<b>how many future subs has covid brought to the present, and tied to that - will the panic over the Delta strain lead to another mini burst in subscribers in the coming quater(s)?</b></p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，尽管盈利出现了一系列时好时坏的情况，但该公司一直在乘着乐观情绪的浪潮，其股价在2021年初飙升。尽管如此，在一月份创下历史新高后，该股在过去七个月里一直徘徊不前，未能突破新高。尽管毫无疑问，在美国和世界大部分地区的Covid-19封锁期间，收视率激增，但也存在复杂情况：病毒导致电视和电影制作停止，随着时间的推移，这种情况对Netflix来说可能只会变得更加可怕。但最大的问题依然存在<b>covid为现在带来了多少未来的subs，与此相关的是，对Delta菌株的恐慌会导致未来几个季度用户的另一次小爆发吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Indicatively, consensus expects just 1.12 million new subscribers to be added in the second quarter, just above the company's own projection of 1 million new subs. Revenue are expected to come in at $7.32 billion, up from $7.16 billion last quarter, and resulting in EPS of $3.36, down slightly from last quarter's $3.75. This, as streaming video remains on a hot streak since the pandemic struck.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，市场普遍预计第二季度仅新增112万新用户，略高于该公司自己预测的100万新用户。收入预计为73.2亿美元，高于上季度的71.6亿美元，每股收益为3.36美元，略低于上季度的3.75美元。这是因为自疫情袭击以来，流媒体视频一直保持火爆势头。</blockquote></p><p> Previewing the quarterly result, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Geetha Ranganathan and Amine Bensaid cautioned that Netflix’s massive 2020 is leading to more muted subscriber gains this year: \"Netflix will continue to feel the aftereffects of a super-charged 1H20, with a massive pull-forward of demand prompting tempered expectations for 1 million additions in 2Q, its lowest quarterly level since 4Q11. The pull-forward may have also been amplified by price increases and pent-up demand for outdoor entertainment leading to uncertainty in 3Q guidance, though the return of several high-profile titles (‘Witcher,’ ‘Cobra Kai,’ ‘You’ and ‘Money Heist’) will be a clear catalyst for normalizing subscriber gains from 4Q and into 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)分析师Geetha Ranganathan和Amine Bensaid在预览季度业绩时警告称，Netflix 2020年的大规模增长将导致今年的订户增长更加疲软：Netflix, Inc.将继续感受到1H20超负荷的后遗症，需求将大幅拉动第二季度新增100万人的预期，这是自2011年第四季度以来的最低季度水平。价格上涨和户外娱乐需求被压抑，导致第三季度指引的不确定性，尽管几部备受瞩目的游戏（《巫师》、《眼镜蛇凯》、《你》和《金钱大劫案》）的回归将成为第四季度至2022年订户增长正常化的明显催化剂。”</blockquote></p><p> LightShed Partners media analyst Rich Greenfield published what he sees as the key questions Netflix investors should ask management after its earnings report. Among them are when Netflix’s subscriber growth will normalize, whether India can be a meaningful driver of profitability, and where the company sees opportunities in video games. Greenfield asks: “Is the goal to leverage IP you create for TV/film or create original video game IP that can be leveraged into TV/film production?”</p><p><blockquote>LightShed Partners媒体分析师Rich Greenfield发表了他认为Netflix投资者在财报发布后应该向管理层提出的关键问题。其中包括Netflix的用户增长何时会正常化，印度是否可以成为盈利的有意义的驱动力，以及该公司在视频游戏领域看到了哪些机会。格林菲尔德问道：“目标是利用你为电视/电影创作的IP，还是创造可以用于电视/电影制作的原创视频游戏IP？”</blockquote></p><p> Another thing to watch out for is how a slowdown in production last year is affecting the service. The filming of new shows and movies basically came to a standstill in early 2020, which curbed output in the following months.</p><p><blockquote>另一件需要注意的事情是去年生产放缓如何影响服务。新节目和电影的拍摄在2020年初基本陷入停滞，这抑制了随后几个月的产量。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>So with all that in mind, was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> the quarter that would finally unleash another repricing higher for Netflix stock?</b>Alas, it would again not be this time because despite beating on the top line, and adding more subscribers than expected, the company missed on EPS and<i>again</i>reported another dismal quarterly guidance which came in well below expectations (full letter to shareholders).</p><p><blockquote><b>考虑到这一点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>这个季度最终会引发Netflix股票的另一次重新定价？</b>唉，这次又不会了，因为尽管营收超出预期，订户数量也超出预期，但该公司未能实现每股收益和<i>再一次</i>报告了另一份惨淡的季度指引，远低于预期（致股东的完整信）。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a>, the good news:</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>好消息是：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Q2 revenue $7.34B,<i><b>beating</b></i>Est. $7.32B</li>  <li>Q2 Streaming Paid Net Change +1.54M,<i><b>beating</b></i>Est. +1.12M</li>  <li>Operating margin of 25.2% came in on top of estiamtes of 25.2%</li> </ul> And then the bad news:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第二季度收入$7.34 B，<i><b>殴打</b></i>是的。$7.32 B</li><li>第二季度流媒体付费净变化+154万，<i><b>殴打</b></i>是的。+1.12 M</li><li>营业利润率为25.2%，高于预期的25.2%</li></ul>然后是坏消息：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Q2 EPS $2.97 missing consensus Est. $3.14</b></li>  <li><b>Company sees Q3 Streaming Paid Net Change +3.50M, far below the Wall Street estimate of +5.86M</b></li> </ul> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> as bad,<b>the company reported its first decline in US/Canada paid subscribers, which shrank by 430K to 73.95MM. This was the first time NFLX lost customers domestically since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>第二季度每股收益2.97美元，未达到共识预期。$3.14</b></li><li><b>公司预计第三季度流媒体付费净变化+350万，远低于华尔街预期的+586万</b></li></ul><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>同样糟糕，<b>该公司报告称，美国/加拿大付费用户首次下降，减少43万至7395万。这是NFLX自2019年以来首次在国内失去客户。</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, while q2 revenue rose 19% and operating income rose 36%,<b>shares tumbled after its third-quarter subscriber forecast missed estimates.</b></p><p><blockquote>也就是说，在q2营收增长19%、营业收入增长36%的同时，<b>第三季度订户预测未达到预期后，股价暴跌。</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the full breakdown of Q2 subs which saw a drop in US/Canada paid subs:</p><p><blockquote>以下是第二季度美国/加拿大付费潜艇数量下降的潜艇的完整明细：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>UCAN streaming paid net change -430,000, estimate +52,190</b></li>  <li>EMEA streaming paid net change +190,000, estimate +429,335</li>  <li>LATAM streaming paid net change +760,000, estimate +128,719</li>  <li>APAC streaming paid net change +1.02 million, estimate +524,900</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">Total</a> Streaming paid net change +1.54 million, estimate +1.12 million (Bloomberg Consensus)</li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>UCAN streaming付费净变化-430,000，估计+52,190</b></li><li>EMEA流媒体付费净变化+190,000，预估+429,335</li><li>LATAM streaming付费净变化+760,000，预估+128,719</li><li>亚太地区流媒体付费净变化+102万，预估+524,900</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">总的</a>流媒体付费净变化+154万，预估+112万（彭博共识）</li></ul>视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85f0ab057ffe490df75bde4db70226d4\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"842\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commenting on the Q2 results, NFLX said that revenue growth was driven by an 11% increase in average paid streaming memberships and 8% growth in average revenue per membership (ARM). “COVID has created some lumpiness in our membership growth (higher growth in 2020, slower growth this year), which is working its way through.”</p><p><blockquote>NFLX在评论第二季度业绩时表示，收入增长是由平均付费流媒体会员数量增长11%和平均每位会员收入(ARM)增长8%推动的。“新冠疫情给我们的会员增长带来了一些波动（2020年增长较高，今年增长较慢），但这种情况正在得到解决。”</blockquote></p><p> A more detailed breakdown of why the company continues to see \"choppiness\" in its earnings:</p><p><blockquote>更详细地分析了该公司盈利持续“波动”的原因：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>\"The pandemic has created unusual choppiness in our growth and distorts year-over-year comparisons as acquisition and engagement per member household spiked in the early months of COVID. In Q2’21, our engagement per member household was, as expected, down vs. those unprecedented levels but was still up 17% compared with a more comparable Q2’19. Similarly, retention continues to be strong and better than pre-COVID Q2’19 levels, even as average revenue per membership has grown 8% over this two-year period, demonstrating how much our members value Netflix and that as we improve our service we can charge a bit more. \"</i>  NFLX also said that it added 1.5m paid memberships in Q2, \"slightly ahead of our 1.0m guidance forecast\"<b>with the APAC region representing about two-thirds of global paid net adds in the quarter</b>. Meanwhile, as noted above,<b>Q2 paid memberships in the UCAN region were down sequentially (-0.4m paid net adds):</b>\"<i>We believe our large membership base in UCAN coupled with a seasonally smaller quarter for acquisition is the main reason for this dynamic. This is similar to what we experienced in Q2’19 when our UCAN paid net adds were -0.1m; since then we’ve added nearly 7.5m paid net adds in UCAN\"</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“疫情给我们的增长带来了异常波动，并扭曲了同比比较，因为在新冠疫情爆发的最初几个月，每个成员家庭的收购和参与度激增。在21年第二季度，我们每个成员家庭的参与度正如预期的那样有所下降。这些前所未有的水平，但与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比仍增长了17%。同样，尽管每位会员的平均收入在这两年期间增长了8%，但保留率仍然强劲，并且好于2019年第二季度新冠疫情爆发前的水平，这表明我们的会员对Netflix的重视程度以及我们改进我们的服务我们可以多收一点钱。”</i>NFLX还表示，第二季度付费会员数量增加了150万，“略高于我们100万的指导预测”<b>亚太地区约占本季度全球付费净增额的三分之二</b>同时，如上所述，<b>UCAN地区第二季度付费会员数量环比下降（付费净增-40万）：</b>\"<i>我们认为，我们在UCAN的庞大会员基础加上季节性较小的季度收购是这种动态的主要原因。这与我们在2019年第二季度经历的情况类似，当时我们的UCAN付费净增额为-0.1 M；从那时起，我们在UCAN中增加了近750万付费净添加量”</i></blockquote></p><p> This means that the covid pandemic in 2020 pulled forward so many subs that 2021 is shaping up to be the wirst year since at least 2016.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2020年的covid疫情号推进了如此多的潜艇，以至于2021年将成为至少自2016年以来的第一年。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a78edf8126b85753fd3218713aba96\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Understandably, now that companies are comping to 2019 not to 2020 (for the dismal base effect), Netflix is urging investors to compare this year to 2019 and not to the same quarter a year ago (when the pandemic boosted subscriber growth). Oddly the company had no problem comparing 2020 to 2019 when the numbers were in its favor, but we digress... The company points out that user engagement per member household was down in the second quarter compared with “those unprecedented levels” of 2020, but it was up 17% “compared with a more comparable Q2’19.”</p><p><blockquote>可以理解的是，现在公司正在与2019年而不是2020年竞争（由于惨淡的基数效应），Netflix敦促投资者将今年与2019年进行比较，而不是与一年前的同一季度（当时大流行促进了用户增长）进行比较。奇怪的是，当数字对其有利时，该公司在比较2020年和2019年时没有问题，但我们跑题了...该公司指出，与2020年“前所未有的水平”相比，第二季度每个成员家庭的用户参与度有所下降，但“与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比”增长了17%。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps in an attempt to divert attention from (lack of) subscriber growth, Netflix said it was making good on its promise back in 2016 to steadily grow its operating margin. The streaming giant is targeting a 20% operating margin for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>或许是为了转移人们对（缺乏）用户增长的注意力，Netflix表示，它正在兑现2016年的承诺，稳步提高营业利润率。这家流媒体巨头的目标是2021年营业利润率达到20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f26d1f9fee9dc38cc58bff5bdc43c73\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some more details here:</p><p><blockquote>更多详情请点击此处：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i><b>“Assuming we achieve our margin target this year, we will have quintupled our operating margin in the last five years and are tracking ahead of this average annual three percentage point pace..</b></i>   <i>.. With revenue and margin both increasing, our operating profit dollars have risen dramatically as well (even as we have been investing heavily), from about $100 million per quarter in 2016 to nearly $2 billion per quarter so far in 2021.</i>  But while shareholders may excuse the decline in US subs, they were not happy with the company's overall guidance,<b>where it now sees just 3.5 million new subs in Q3, far below the 5.86 million expected.</b></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“假设我们今年实现利润率目标，我们的营业利润率将在过去五年中增长五倍，并且领先于年均三个百分点的速度。</b></i><i>..随着收入和利润率的增长，我们的营业利润也大幅增长（尽管我们一直在大力投资），从2016年的每季度约1亿美元增加到2021年迄今为止的每季度近20亿美元。</i>但是，尽管股东可能会原谅美国潜艇的下降，但他们对公司的整体指导并不满意，<b>目前第三季度新增潜艇数量仅为350万艘，远低于预期的586万艘。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23205a0bb2f7fde61b3ef2da7b7a56bb\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">* * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> Looking at its content slate, Netflix said it would be light in the first half due to Covid. The company is now playing catch-up, with spending on new TV shows and movies up 41% to $8 billion in the first half. The company is targeting $12 billion in content spending for the year, a 12% bump, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>从其内容清单来看，Netflix表示，由于新冠疫情，上半年的内容将会清淡。该公司现在正在迎头赶上，上半年在新电视节目和电影上的支出增长了41%，达到80亿美元。该公司今年的内容支出目标为120亿美元，增长12%，即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>Through the first half of 2021 we’ve already spent $8 billion in cash on content (up 41% yr-over-yr and 1.4x our content amortization)</b></i>   <i>and we expect content amortization to be around $12 billion for the full year (+12% year over year). Our Q3 slate will include new seasons of fan favorites La Casa de Papel (aka Money Heist), Sex Education, Virgin River and Never Have I Ever as well as live action films including Sweet Girl (starring Jason Momoa), Kissing Booth 3, and Kate (starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead) and the animated feature film Vivo, featuring all-new songs from Lin-Manuel Miranda.</i>  Netflix offers shared some more details on its upcoming entrance into the gaming arena:</p><p><blockquote><i><b>截至2021年上半年，我们已在内容上花费了80亿美元现金（同比增长41%，内容摊销是1.4倍）</b></i><i>我们预计全年内容摊销约为120亿美元（同比增长12%）。我们的第三季度名单将包括粉丝最爱的《La Casa de Papel》（又名《金钱大劫案》）、《性教育》、《处女河》和《从未有过我》的新一季，以及真人电影，包括《甜蜜的女孩》（由杰森·莫玛主演）、《接吻亭3》和《凯特》（由玛丽·伊丽莎白·温斯蒂德主演）和动画故事片《Vivo》，其中收录了林·曼努尔·米兰达的全新歌曲。</i>Netflix offers分享了有关其即将进入游戏领域的更多细节：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“We’re also in the early stages of further expanding into games, building on our earlier efforts around interactivity (e.g., Black Mirror Bandersnatch) and our Stranger Things games. We view gaming as another new content category for us, similar to our expansion into original films, animation and unscripted TV.</i>   <i><b>Games will be included in members’ Netflix subscription at no additional cost, similar to films and series</b></i>   <i>. Initially, we’ll be primarily focused on games for mobile devices. We’re excited as ever about our movies and TV series offering and we expect a long runway of increasing investment and growth across all of our existing content categories, but since we are nearly a decade into our push into original programming, we think the time is right to learn more about how our members value games.”</i>  In its cursory overview of the competitive landscape, Netflix pointed out mergers like WarnerMedia/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">Discovery</a>, saying they “don’t believe this consolidation has affected our growth much, if at all.” The company also noted that while it’s always evaluating merger opportunities: “We don’t view any assets as ‘must-have’ and we haven’t yet found any large scale ones to be sufficiently compelling to act upon.”</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们还处于进一步向游戏领域扩张的早期阶段，建立在我们早期围绕交互性（例如Black Mirror Bandersnatch）和Stranger Things游戏的基础上。我们将游戏视为我们的另一个新内容类别，类似于我们向原创电影、动画和无脚本电视的扩张。</i><i><b>游戏将免费包含在会员的Netflix订阅中，类似于电影和连续剧</b></i><i>最初，我们将主要关注移动设备上的游戏。我们一如既往地对我们的电影和电视剧产品感到兴奋，我们预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将会有很长的路要走，但由于我们进军原创节目已近十年，我们认为是时候了解更多有关我们的会员如何重视游戏的信息了。”</i>在对竞争格局的粗略概述中，Netflix指出了像华纳媒体/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">发现</a>，表示他们“不认为这次整合对我们的增长有太大影响，如果有的话。”该公司还指出，虽然它一直在评估合并机会：“我们不认为任何资产是‘必须拥有的’，而且我们还没有发现任何足以令人信服地采取行动的大规模资产。”</blockquote></p><p> There was more bad news in NFLX cash flow, which after last quarter's surge reversed again, and dropped by $175 million, vs a positive cash flow of $899 million a year ago. NFLX notes that it is \"still expecting full year 2021 free cash flow to be approximately break even.\" The company also believes it no longer needs to raise external financing to fund our day-to-day operations. We'll see if at least that promise pans out.</p><p><blockquote>NFLX现金流方面有更多坏消息，继上季度激增后再次逆转，下降了1.75亿美元，而一年前现金流为正8.99亿美元。NFLX指出，“仍预计2021年全年自由现金流将接近收支平衡。”该公司还认为，不再需要筹集外部融资来为我们的日常运营提供资金。我们将看看至少这个承诺是否会实现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ceb3aed0130e94558eb4acfb4ed6369\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other news, during Q2, NFLX increased its revolving credit facility (which remains undrawn) to $1 billion from $750 million and extended the maturity from 2024 to 2026. The company also repurchased 1 million shares for $500 million (at an average per share price of about $500) under our $5 billion share authorization: the company said its \"main priority is to invest in the organic growth of our business while maintaining strong liquidity and retaining financial flexibility for strategic investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他消息方面，第二季度，NFLX将其循环信贷额度（仍未提取）从7.5亿美元增加到10亿美元，并将期限从2024年延长至2026年。该公司还根据我们50亿美元的股票授权，以5亿美元（平均每股价格约为500美元）回购了100万股股票：该公司表示，其“主要优先事项是投资于我们业务的有机增长，同时保持强劲的流动性并保留战略投资的财务灵活性。”</blockquote></p><p> After all that, the market was unimpressed but it could have been worse: after initially plunging below $500 briefly, the stock has since stabilized down 2% around $515. Among stocks that are down in sympathy, video-streaming platform Roku falls 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>毕竟，市场并不为所动，但情况可能会更糟：在最初短暂跌破500美元后，该股此后稳定下跌2%，约为515美元。在同情下跌的股票中，视频流媒体平台Roku下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7e85e2830bd58f17652f92dedb29b4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Netflix Slides&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix在盘前交易中下滑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304dae8666ce15371c9686fbd96d32bb\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Slides After Subscriber Guidance Misses Estimates<blockquote>订户指引未达预期后Netflix股价下滑</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Slides After Subscriber Guidance Misses Estimates<blockquote>订户指引未达预期后Netflix股价下滑</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 15:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recent earnings reports from streaming giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> have been a mixed bag: the stock tumbled three quarters ago when the company reported earnings for its first full \"post Corona\" quarter and warned that<i>\"growth is slowing\",</i>before againplunging three quarters agowhen the company reported a huge miss in both EPS and new subs, which at 2.2 million was tied for the worst quarter in the past five years, while also reporting a worse than expected outlook for the current quarter. This reversedtwo quarters agowhen Netflix reported a blowout subscriber beat and projected it would soon be cash flow positive, sending its stock soaring to an all time high - if only briefly before again reversing and then tumblinglast quarterwhen Netflix again disappointed when it reported a huge subscriber miss and giving dismal guidance.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体巨头最近的收益报告<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>情况好坏参半：三个季度前，当该公司公布第一个完整的“后电晕”季度收益时，该股暴跌，并警告称<i>“增长放缓”，</i>在三个季度前再次暴跌之前，该公司报告每股收益和新潜艇均大幅下滑，为220万辆，并列过去五年来最糟糕的季度，同时还报告了本季度的前景差于预期。两个季度前，这种情况发生了逆转，当时Netflix报告订户数量井喷，并预计很快就会实现正现金流，导致其股价飙升至历史新高——即使只是短暂的，然后再次逆转，然后暴跌。上个季度，Netflix报告订户数量巨大，再次感到失望。错过并给出令人沮丧的指导。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fe65be48d8a2ae27f38c5f2f476d77\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which brings us to today, when investors are on edge today to find out not whether the company would beat or miss expectations, but rather if the slowdown CEO Reed Hastings warned about is for real and has pulled forward even more subscribers due to covid? After all, Netflix has been warning for months that growth would slow in 2021 compared to the phenomenal signup rate at the start of the pandemic lockdown last year. And yes, brace for a huge base effect hit:<i>in the second quarter of 2020, the service added 10 million new customers, second only to the 15.77 million it added in the record first quarter of 2020.</i></p><p><blockquote>这就把我们带到了今天，投资者今天紧张地想知道的不是该公司是否会超出或低于预期，而是首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯警告的经济放缓是否是真的，并且由于新冠疫情而吸引了更多的订户？毕竟，Netflix几个月来一直警告称，与去年大流行封锁开始时惊人的注册率相比，2021年的增长将放缓。是的，准备好迎接巨大的基础效应吧：<i>2020年第二季度，该服务新增客户1000万，仅次于创纪录的2020年第一季度新增的1577万。</i></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, despite a series of hit or miss earnings, the company has been riding a wave of optimism, its stock soaring in early 2021. Still, after hitting to a record high in January, the stock has traded rangbeound, unable to break out to a new high, for the past seven months. And while there’s no doubt that viewership has surged during the Covid-19 lockdowns in the U.S. and much of the world, there are complications: the virus has brought TV and film production to a halt, a situation that may only get more dire for Netflix as the months wear on. But the biggest question remains<b>how many future subs has covid brought to the present, and tied to that - will the panic over the Delta strain lead to another mini burst in subscribers in the coming quater(s)?</b></p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，尽管盈利出现了一系列时好时坏的情况，但该公司一直在乘着乐观情绪的浪潮，其股价在2021年初飙升。尽管如此，在一月份创下历史新高后，该股在过去七个月里一直徘徊不前，未能突破新高。尽管毫无疑问，在美国和世界大部分地区的Covid-19封锁期间，收视率激增，但也存在复杂情况：病毒导致电视和电影制作停止，随着时间的推移，这种情况对Netflix来说可能只会变得更加可怕。但最大的问题依然存在<b>covid为现在带来了多少未来的subs，与此相关的是，对Delta菌株的恐慌会导致未来几个季度用户的另一次小爆发吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Indicatively, consensus expects just 1.12 million new subscribers to be added in the second quarter, just above the company's own projection of 1 million new subs. Revenue are expected to come in at $7.32 billion, up from $7.16 billion last quarter, and resulting in EPS of $3.36, down slightly from last quarter's $3.75. This, as streaming video remains on a hot streak since the pandemic struck.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，市场普遍预计第二季度仅新增112万新用户，略高于该公司自己预测的100万新用户。收入预计为73.2亿美元，高于上季度的71.6亿美元，每股收益为3.36美元，略低于上季度的3.75美元。这是因为自疫情袭击以来，流媒体视频一直保持火爆势头。</blockquote></p><p> Previewing the quarterly result, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Geetha Ranganathan and Amine Bensaid cautioned that Netflix’s massive 2020 is leading to more muted subscriber gains this year: \"Netflix will continue to feel the aftereffects of a super-charged 1H20, with a massive pull-forward of demand prompting tempered expectations for 1 million additions in 2Q, its lowest quarterly level since 4Q11. The pull-forward may have also been amplified by price increases and pent-up demand for outdoor entertainment leading to uncertainty in 3Q guidance, though the return of several high-profile titles (‘Witcher,’ ‘Cobra Kai,’ ‘You’ and ‘Money Heist’) will be a clear catalyst for normalizing subscriber gains from 4Q and into 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)分析师Geetha Ranganathan和Amine Bensaid在预览季度业绩时警告称，Netflix 2020年的大规模增长将导致今年的订户增长更加疲软：Netflix, Inc.将继续感受到1H20超负荷的后遗症，需求将大幅拉动第二季度新增100万人的预期，这是自2011年第四季度以来的最低季度水平。价格上涨和户外娱乐需求被压抑，导致第三季度指引的不确定性，尽管几部备受瞩目的游戏（《巫师》、《眼镜蛇凯》、《你》和《金钱大劫案》）的回归将成为第四季度至2022年订户增长正常化的明显催化剂。”</blockquote></p><p> LightShed Partners media analyst Rich Greenfield published what he sees as the key questions Netflix investors should ask management after its earnings report. Among them are when Netflix’s subscriber growth will normalize, whether India can be a meaningful driver of profitability, and where the company sees opportunities in video games. Greenfield asks: “Is the goal to leverage IP you create for TV/film or create original video game IP that can be leveraged into TV/film production?”</p><p><blockquote>LightShed Partners媒体分析师Rich Greenfield发表了他认为Netflix投资者在财报发布后应该向管理层提出的关键问题。其中包括Netflix的用户增长何时会正常化，印度是否可以成为盈利的有意义的驱动力，以及该公司在视频游戏领域看到了哪些机会。格林菲尔德问道：“目标是利用你为电视/电影创作的IP，还是创造可以用于电视/电影制作的原创视频游戏IP？”</blockquote></p><p> Another thing to watch out for is how a slowdown in production last year is affecting the service. The filming of new shows and movies basically came to a standstill in early 2020, which curbed output in the following months.</p><p><blockquote>另一件需要注意的事情是去年生产放缓如何影响服务。新节目和电影的拍摄在2020年初基本陷入停滞，这抑制了随后几个月的产量。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>So with all that in mind, was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> the quarter that would finally unleash another repricing higher for Netflix stock?</b>Alas, it would again not be this time because despite beating on the top line, and adding more subscribers than expected, the company missed on EPS and<i>again</i>reported another dismal quarterly guidance which came in well below expectations (full letter to shareholders).</p><p><blockquote><b>考虑到这一点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>这个季度最终会引发Netflix股票的另一次重新定价？</b>唉，这次又不会了，因为尽管营收超出预期，订户数量也超出预期，但该公司未能实现每股收益和<i>再一次</i>报告了另一份惨淡的季度指引，远低于预期（致股东的完整信）。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a>, the good news:</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>好消息是：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Q2 revenue $7.34B,<i><b>beating</b></i>Est. $7.32B</li>  <li>Q2 Streaming Paid Net Change +1.54M,<i><b>beating</b></i>Est. +1.12M</li>  <li>Operating margin of 25.2% came in on top of estiamtes of 25.2%</li> </ul> And then the bad news:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第二季度收入$7.34 B，<i><b>殴打</b></i>是的。$7.32 B</li><li>第二季度流媒体付费净变化+154万，<i><b>殴打</b></i>是的。+1.12 M</li><li>营业利润率为25.2%，高于预期的25.2%</li></ul>然后是坏消息：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Q2 EPS $2.97 missing consensus Est. $3.14</b></li>  <li><b>Company sees Q3 Streaming Paid Net Change +3.50M, far below the Wall Street estimate of +5.86M</b></li> </ul> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> as bad,<b>the company reported its first decline in US/Canada paid subscribers, which shrank by 430K to 73.95MM. This was the first time NFLX lost customers domestically since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>第二季度每股收益2.97美元，未达到共识预期。$3.14</b></li><li><b>公司预计第三季度流媒体付费净变化+350万，远低于华尔街预期的+586万</b></li></ul><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>同样糟糕，<b>该公司报告称，美国/加拿大付费用户首次下降，减少43万至7395万。这是NFLX自2019年以来首次在国内失去客户。</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, while q2 revenue rose 19% and operating income rose 36%,<b>shares tumbled after its third-quarter subscriber forecast missed estimates.</b></p><p><blockquote>也就是说，在q2营收增长19%、营业收入增长36%的同时，<b>第三季度订户预测未达到预期后，股价暴跌。</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the full breakdown of Q2 subs which saw a drop in US/Canada paid subs:</p><p><blockquote>以下是第二季度美国/加拿大付费潜艇数量下降的潜艇的完整明细：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>UCAN streaming paid net change -430,000, estimate +52,190</b></li>  <li>EMEA streaming paid net change +190,000, estimate +429,335</li>  <li>LATAM streaming paid net change +760,000, estimate +128,719</li>  <li>APAC streaming paid net change +1.02 million, estimate +524,900</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">Total</a> Streaming paid net change +1.54 million, estimate +1.12 million (Bloomberg Consensus)</li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>UCAN streaming付费净变化-430,000，估计+52,190</b></li><li>EMEA流媒体付费净变化+190,000，预估+429,335</li><li>LATAM streaming付费净变化+760,000，预估+128,719</li><li>亚太地区流媒体付费净变化+102万，预估+524,900</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">总的</a>流媒体付费净变化+154万，预估+112万（彭博共识）</li></ul>视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85f0ab057ffe490df75bde4db70226d4\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"842\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commenting on the Q2 results, NFLX said that revenue growth was driven by an 11% increase in average paid streaming memberships and 8% growth in average revenue per membership (ARM). “COVID has created some lumpiness in our membership growth (higher growth in 2020, slower growth this year), which is working its way through.”</p><p><blockquote>NFLX在评论第二季度业绩时表示，收入增长是由平均付费流媒体会员数量增长11%和平均每位会员收入(ARM)增长8%推动的。“新冠疫情给我们的会员增长带来了一些波动（2020年增长较高，今年增长较慢），但这种情况正在得到解决。”</blockquote></p><p> A more detailed breakdown of why the company continues to see \"choppiness\" in its earnings:</p><p><blockquote>更详细地分析了该公司盈利持续“波动”的原因：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>\"The pandemic has created unusual choppiness in our growth and distorts year-over-year comparisons as acquisition and engagement per member household spiked in the early months of COVID. In Q2’21, our engagement per member household was, as expected, down vs. those unprecedented levels but was still up 17% compared with a more comparable Q2’19. Similarly, retention continues to be strong and better than pre-COVID Q2’19 levels, even as average revenue per membership has grown 8% over this two-year period, demonstrating how much our members value Netflix and that as we improve our service we can charge a bit more. \"</i>  NFLX also said that it added 1.5m paid memberships in Q2, \"slightly ahead of our 1.0m guidance forecast\"<b>with the APAC region representing about two-thirds of global paid net adds in the quarter</b>. Meanwhile, as noted above,<b>Q2 paid memberships in the UCAN region were down sequentially (-0.4m paid net adds):</b>\"<i>We believe our large membership base in UCAN coupled with a seasonally smaller quarter for acquisition is the main reason for this dynamic. This is similar to what we experienced in Q2’19 when our UCAN paid net adds were -0.1m; since then we’ve added nearly 7.5m paid net adds in UCAN\"</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“疫情给我们的增长带来了异常波动，并扭曲了同比比较，因为在新冠疫情爆发的最初几个月，每个成员家庭的收购和参与度激增。在21年第二季度，我们每个成员家庭的参与度正如预期的那样有所下降。这些前所未有的水平，但与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比仍增长了17%。同样，尽管每位会员的平均收入在这两年期间增长了8%，但保留率仍然强劲，并且好于2019年第二季度新冠疫情爆发前的水平，这表明我们的会员对Netflix的重视程度以及我们改进我们的服务我们可以多收一点钱。”</i>NFLX还表示，第二季度付费会员数量增加了150万，“略高于我们100万的指导预测”<b>亚太地区约占本季度全球付费净增额的三分之二</b>同时，如上所述，<b>UCAN地区第二季度付费会员数量环比下降（付费净增-40万）：</b>\"<i>我们认为，我们在UCAN的庞大会员基础加上季节性较小的季度收购是这种动态的主要原因。这与我们在2019年第二季度经历的情况类似，当时我们的UCAN付费净增额为-0.1 M；从那时起，我们在UCAN中增加了近750万付费净添加量”</i></blockquote></p><p> This means that the covid pandemic in 2020 pulled forward so many subs that 2021 is shaping up to be the wirst year since at least 2016.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2020年的covid疫情号推进了如此多的潜艇，以至于2021年将成为至少自2016年以来的第一年。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a78edf8126b85753fd3218713aba96\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Understandably, now that companies are comping to 2019 not to 2020 (for the dismal base effect), Netflix is urging investors to compare this year to 2019 and not to the same quarter a year ago (when the pandemic boosted subscriber growth). Oddly the company had no problem comparing 2020 to 2019 when the numbers were in its favor, but we digress... The company points out that user engagement per member household was down in the second quarter compared with “those unprecedented levels” of 2020, but it was up 17% “compared with a more comparable Q2’19.”</p><p><blockquote>可以理解的是，现在公司正在与2019年而不是2020年竞争（由于惨淡的基数效应），Netflix敦促投资者将今年与2019年进行比较，而不是与一年前的同一季度（当时大流行促进了用户增长）进行比较。奇怪的是，当数字对其有利时，该公司在比较2020年和2019年时没有问题，但我们跑题了...该公司指出，与2020年“前所未有的水平”相比，第二季度每个成员家庭的用户参与度有所下降，但“与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比”增长了17%。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps in an attempt to divert attention from (lack of) subscriber growth, Netflix said it was making good on its promise back in 2016 to steadily grow its operating margin. The streaming giant is targeting a 20% operating margin for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>或许是为了转移人们对（缺乏）用户增长的注意力，Netflix表示，它正在兑现2016年的承诺，稳步提高营业利润率。这家流媒体巨头的目标是2021年营业利润率达到20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f26d1f9fee9dc38cc58bff5bdc43c73\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some more details here:</p><p><blockquote>更多详情请点击此处：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   <i><b>“Assuming we achieve our margin target this year, we will have quintupled our operating margin in the last five years and are tracking ahead of this average annual three percentage point pace..</b></i>   <i>.. With revenue and margin both increasing, our operating profit dollars have risen dramatically as well (even as we have been investing heavily), from about $100 million per quarter in 2016 to nearly $2 billion per quarter so far in 2021.</i>  But while shareholders may excuse the decline in US subs, they were not happy with the company's overall guidance,<b>where it now sees just 3.5 million new subs in Q3, far below the 5.86 million expected.</b></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“假设我们今年实现利润率目标，我们的营业利润率将在过去五年中增长五倍，并且领先于年均三个百分点的速度。</b></i><i>..随着收入和利润率的增长，我们的营业利润也大幅增长（尽管我们一直在大力投资），从2016年的每季度约1亿美元增加到2021年迄今为止的每季度近20亿美元。</i>但是，尽管股东可能会原谅美国潜艇的下降，但他们对公司的整体指导并不满意，<b>目前第三季度新增潜艇数量仅为350万艘，远低于预期的586万艘。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23205a0bb2f7fde61b3ef2da7b7a56bb\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">* * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> Looking at its content slate, Netflix said it would be light in the first half due to Covid. The company is now playing catch-up, with spending on new TV shows and movies up 41% to $8 billion in the first half. The company is targeting $12 billion in content spending for the year, a 12% bump, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>从其内容清单来看，Netflix表示，由于新冠疫情，上半年的内容将会清淡。该公司现在正在迎头赶上，上半年在新电视节目和电影上的支出增长了41%，达到80亿美元。该公司今年的内容支出目标为120亿美元，增长12%，即：</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>Through the first half of 2021 we’ve already spent $8 billion in cash on content (up 41% yr-over-yr and 1.4x our content amortization)</b></i>   <i>and we expect content amortization to be around $12 billion for the full year (+12% year over year). Our Q3 slate will include new seasons of fan favorites La Casa de Papel (aka Money Heist), Sex Education, Virgin River and Never Have I Ever as well as live action films including Sweet Girl (starring Jason Momoa), Kissing Booth 3, and Kate (starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead) and the animated feature film Vivo, featuring all-new songs from Lin-Manuel Miranda.</i>  Netflix offers shared some more details on its upcoming entrance into the gaming arena:</p><p><blockquote><i><b>截至2021年上半年，我们已在内容上花费了80亿美元现金（同比增长41%，内容摊销是1.4倍）</b></i><i>我们预计全年内容摊销约为120亿美元（同比增长12%）。我们的第三季度名单将包括粉丝最爱的《La Casa de Papel》（又名《金钱大劫案》）、《性教育》、《处女河》和《从未有过我》的新一季，以及真人电影，包括《甜蜜的女孩》（由杰森·莫玛主演）、《接吻亭3》和《凯特》（由玛丽·伊丽莎白·温斯蒂德主演）和动画故事片《Vivo》，其中收录了林·曼努尔·米兰达的全新歌曲。</i>Netflix offers分享了有关其即将进入游戏领域的更多细节：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“We’re also in the early stages of further expanding into games, building on our earlier efforts around interactivity (e.g., Black Mirror Bandersnatch) and our Stranger Things games. We view gaming as another new content category for us, similar to our expansion into original films, animation and unscripted TV.</i>   <i><b>Games will be included in members’ Netflix subscription at no additional cost, similar to films and series</b></i>   <i>. Initially, we’ll be primarily focused on games for mobile devices. We’re excited as ever about our movies and TV series offering and we expect a long runway of increasing investment and growth across all of our existing content categories, but since we are nearly a decade into our push into original programming, we think the time is right to learn more about how our members value games.”</i>  In its cursory overview of the competitive landscape, Netflix pointed out mergers like WarnerMedia/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">Discovery</a>, saying they “don’t believe this consolidation has affected our growth much, if at all.” The company also noted that while it’s always evaluating merger opportunities: “We don’t view any assets as ‘must-have’ and we haven’t yet found any large scale ones to be sufficiently compelling to act upon.”</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们还处于进一步向游戏领域扩张的早期阶段，建立在我们早期围绕交互性（例如Black Mirror Bandersnatch）和Stranger Things游戏的基础上。我们将游戏视为我们的另一个新内容类别，类似于我们向原创电影、动画和无脚本电视的扩张。</i><i><b>游戏将免费包含在会员的Netflix订阅中，类似于电影和连续剧</b></i><i>最初，我们将主要关注移动设备上的游戏。我们一如既往地对我们的电影和电视剧产品感到兴奋，我们预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将会有很长的路要走，但由于我们进军原创节目已近十年，我们认为是时候了解更多有关我们的会员如何重视游戏的信息了。”</i>在对竞争格局的粗略概述中，Netflix指出了像华纳媒体/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">发现</a>，表示他们“不认为这次整合对我们的增长有太大影响，如果有的话。”该公司还指出，虽然它一直在评估合并机会：“我们不认为任何资产是‘必须拥有的’，而且我们还没有发现任何足以令人信服地采取行动的大规模资产。”</blockquote></p><p> There was more bad news in NFLX cash flow, which after last quarter's surge reversed again, and dropped by $175 million, vs a positive cash flow of $899 million a year ago. NFLX notes that it is \"still expecting full year 2021 free cash flow to be approximately break even.\" The company also believes it no longer needs to raise external financing to fund our day-to-day operations. We'll see if at least that promise pans out.</p><p><blockquote>NFLX现金流方面有更多坏消息，继上季度激增后再次逆转，下降了1.75亿美元，而一年前现金流为正8.99亿美元。NFLX指出，“仍预计2021年全年自由现金流将接近收支平衡。”该公司还认为，不再需要筹集外部融资来为我们的日常运营提供资金。我们将看看至少这个承诺是否会实现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ceb3aed0130e94558eb4acfb4ed6369\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other news, during Q2, NFLX increased its revolving credit facility (which remains undrawn) to $1 billion from $750 million and extended the maturity from 2024 to 2026. The company also repurchased 1 million shares for $500 million (at an average per share price of about $500) under our $5 billion share authorization: the company said its \"main priority is to invest in the organic growth of our business while maintaining strong liquidity and retaining financial flexibility for strategic investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>其他消息方面，第二季度，NFLX将其循环信贷额度（仍未提取）从7.5亿美元增加到10亿美元，并将期限从2024年延长至2026年。该公司还根据我们50亿美元的股票授权，以5亿美元（平均每股价格约为500美元）回购了100万股股票：该公司表示，其“主要优先事项是投资于我们业务的有机增长，同时保持强劲的流动性并保留战略投资的财务灵活性。”</blockquote></p><p> After all that, the market was unimpressed but it could have been worse: after initially plunging below $500 briefly, the stock has since stabilized down 2% around $515. Among stocks that are down in sympathy, video-streaming platform Roku falls 1.4%.</p><p><blockquote>毕竟，市场并不为所动，但情况可能会更糟：在最初短暂跌破500美元后，该股此后稳定下跌2%，约为515美元。在同情下跌的股票中，视频流媒体平台Roku下跌1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7e85e2830bd58f17652f92dedb29b4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Netflix Slides&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix在盘前交易中下滑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304dae8666ce15371c9686fbd96d32bb\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/netflix-slides-after-subscriber-guidance-misses-estimates\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GUID":"Guident","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/netflix-slides-after-subscriber-guidance-misses-estimates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183563723","content_text":"Recent earnings reports from streaming giant Netflix have been a mixed bag: the stock tumbled three quarters ago when the company reported earnings for its first full \"post Corona\" quarter and warned that\"growth is slowing\",before againplunging three quarters agowhen the company reported a huge miss in both EPS and new subs, which at 2.2 million was tied for the worst quarter in the past five years, while also reporting a worse than expected outlook for the current quarter. This reversedtwo quarters agowhen Netflix reported a blowout subscriber beat and projected it would soon be cash flow positive, sending its stock soaring to an all time high - if only briefly before again reversing and then tumblinglast quarterwhen Netflix again disappointed when it reported a huge subscriber miss and giving dismal guidance.\nWhich brings us to today, when investors are on edge today to find out not whether the company would beat or miss expectations, but rather if the slowdown CEO Reed Hastings warned about is for real and has pulled forward even more subscribers due to covid? After all, Netflix has been warning for months that growth would slow in 2021 compared to the phenomenal signup rate at the start of the pandemic lockdown last year. And yes, brace for a huge base effect hit:in the second quarter of 2020, the service added 10 million new customers, second only to the 15.77 million it added in the record first quarter of 2020.\nTo be sure, despite a series of hit or miss earnings, the company has been riding a wave of optimism, its stock soaring in early 2021. Still, after hitting to a record high in January, the stock has traded rangbeound, unable to break out to a new high, for the past seven months. And while there’s no doubt that viewership has surged during the Covid-19 lockdowns in the U.S. and much of the world, there are complications: the virus has brought TV and film production to a halt, a situation that may only get more dire for Netflix as the months wear on. But the biggest question remainshow many future subs has covid brought to the present, and tied to that - will the panic over the Delta strain lead to another mini burst in subscribers in the coming quater(s)?\nIndicatively, consensus expects just 1.12 million new subscribers to be added in the second quarter, just above the company's own projection of 1 million new subs. Revenue are expected to come in at $7.32 billion, up from $7.16 billion last quarter, and resulting in EPS of $3.36, down slightly from last quarter's $3.75. This, as streaming video remains on a hot streak since the pandemic struck.\nPreviewing the quarterly result, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Geetha Ranganathan and Amine Bensaid cautioned that Netflix’s massive 2020 is leading to more muted subscriber gains this year: \"Netflix will continue to feel the aftereffects of a super-charged 1H20, with a massive pull-forward of demand prompting tempered expectations for 1 million additions in 2Q, its lowest quarterly level since 4Q11. The pull-forward may have also been amplified by price increases and pent-up demand for outdoor entertainment leading to uncertainty in 3Q guidance, though the return of several high-profile titles (‘Witcher,’ ‘Cobra Kai,’ ‘You’ and ‘Money Heist’) will be a clear catalyst for normalizing subscriber gains from 4Q and into 2022.\"\nLightShed Partners media analyst Rich Greenfield published what he sees as the key questions Netflix investors should ask management after its earnings report. Among them are when Netflix’s subscriber growth will normalize, whether India can be a meaningful driver of profitability, and where the company sees opportunities in video games. Greenfield asks: “Is the goal to leverage IP you create for TV/film or create original video game IP that can be leveraged into TV/film production?”\nAnother thing to watch out for is how a slowdown in production last year is affecting the service. The filming of new shows and movies basically came to a standstill in early 2020, which curbed output in the following months.\n* * *\nSo with all that in mind, was Q2 the quarter that would finally unleash another repricing higher for Netflix stock?Alas, it would again not be this time because despite beating on the top line, and adding more subscribers than expected, the company missed on EPS andagainreported another dismal quarterly guidance which came in well below expectations (full letter to shareholders).\nFirst, the good news:\n\nQ2 revenue $7.34B,beatingEst. $7.32B\nQ2 Streaming Paid Net Change +1.54M,beatingEst. +1.12M\nOperating margin of 25.2% came in on top of estiamtes of 25.2%\n\nAnd then the bad news:\n\nQ2 EPS $2.97 missing consensus Est. $3.14\nCompany sees Q3 Streaming Paid Net Change +3.50M, far below the Wall Street estimate of +5.86M\n\nJust as bad,the company reported its first decline in US/Canada paid subscribers, which shrank by 430K to 73.95MM. This was the first time NFLX lost customers domestically since 2019.\nIn other words, while q2 revenue rose 19% and operating income rose 36%,shares tumbled after its third-quarter subscriber forecast missed estimates.\nHere is the full breakdown of Q2 subs which saw a drop in US/Canada paid subs:\n\nUCAN streaming paid net change -430,000, estimate +52,190\nEMEA streaming paid net change +190,000, estimate +429,335\nLATAM streaming paid net change +760,000, estimate +128,719\nAPAC streaming paid net change +1.02 million, estimate +524,900\nTotal Streaming paid net change +1.54 million, estimate +1.12 million (Bloomberg Consensus)\n\nAnd visually:\nCommenting on the Q2 results, NFLX said that revenue growth was driven by an 11% increase in average paid streaming memberships and 8% growth in average revenue per membership (ARM). “COVID has created some lumpiness in our membership growth (higher growth in 2020, slower growth this year), which is working its way through.”\nA more detailed breakdown of why the company continues to see \"choppiness\" in its earnings:\n\n\"The pandemic has created unusual choppiness in our growth and distorts year-over-year comparisons as acquisition and engagement per member household spiked in the early months of COVID. In Q2’21, our engagement per member household was, as expected, down vs. those unprecedented levels but was still up 17% compared with a more comparable Q2’19. Similarly, retention continues to be strong and better than pre-COVID Q2’19 levels, even as average revenue per membership has grown 8% over this two-year period, demonstrating how much our members value Netflix and that as we improve our service we can charge a bit more. \"\n\nNFLX also said that it added 1.5m paid memberships in Q2, \"slightly ahead of our 1.0m guidance forecast\"with the APAC region representing about two-thirds of global paid net adds in the quarter. Meanwhile, as noted above,Q2 paid memberships in the UCAN region were down sequentially (-0.4m paid net adds):\"We believe our large membership base in UCAN coupled with a seasonally smaller quarter for acquisition is the main reason for this dynamic. This is similar to what we experienced in Q2’19 when our UCAN paid net adds were -0.1m; since then we’ve added nearly 7.5m paid net adds in UCAN\"\nThis means that the covid pandemic in 2020 pulled forward so many subs that 2021 is shaping up to be the wirst year since at least 2016.\nUnderstandably, now that companies are comping to 2019 not to 2020 (for the dismal base effect), Netflix is urging investors to compare this year to 2019 and not to the same quarter a year ago (when the pandemic boosted subscriber growth). Oddly the company had no problem comparing 2020 to 2019 when the numbers were in its favor, but we digress... The company points out that user engagement per member household was down in the second quarter compared with “those unprecedented levels” of 2020, but it was up 17% “compared with a more comparable Q2’19.”\nPerhaps in an attempt to divert attention from (lack of) subscriber growth, Netflix said it was making good on its promise back in 2016 to steadily grow its operating margin. The streaming giant is targeting a 20% operating margin for 2021.\nSome more details here:\n\n“Assuming we achieve our margin target this year, we will have quintupled our operating margin in the last five years and are tracking ahead of this average annual three percentage point pace..\n.. With revenue and margin both increasing, our operating profit dollars have risen dramatically as well (even as we have been investing heavily), from about $100 million per quarter in 2016 to nearly $2 billion per quarter so far in 2021.\n\nBut while shareholders may excuse the decline in US subs, they were not happy with the company's overall guidance,where it now sees just 3.5 million new subs in Q3, far below the 5.86 million expected.\n* * *\nLooking at its content slate, Netflix said it would be light in the first half due to Covid. The company is now playing catch-up, with spending on new TV shows and movies up 41% to $8 billion in the first half. The company is targeting $12 billion in content spending for the year, a 12% bump, to wit:\n\nThrough the first half of 2021 we’ve already spent $8 billion in cash on content (up 41% yr-over-yr and 1.4x our content amortization)\nand we expect content amortization to be around $12 billion for the full year (+12% year over year). Our Q3 slate will include new seasons of fan favorites La Casa de Papel (aka Money Heist), Sex Education, Virgin River and Never Have I Ever as well as live action films including Sweet Girl (starring Jason Momoa), Kissing Booth 3, and Kate (starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead) and the animated feature film Vivo, featuring all-new songs from Lin-Manuel Miranda.\n\nNetflix offers shared some more details on its upcoming entrance into the gaming arena:\n\n“We’re also in the early stages of further expanding into games, building on our earlier efforts around interactivity (e.g., Black Mirror Bandersnatch) and our Stranger Things games. We view gaming as another new content category for us, similar to our expansion into original films, animation and unscripted TV.\nGames will be included in members’ Netflix subscription at no additional cost, similar to films and series\n. Initially, we’ll be primarily focused on games for mobile devices. We’re excited as ever about our movies and TV series offering and we expect a long runway of increasing investment and growth across all of our existing content categories, but since we are nearly a decade into our push into original programming, we think the time is right to learn more about how our members value games.”\n\nIn its cursory overview of the competitive landscape, Netflix pointed out mergers like WarnerMedia/Discovery, saying they “don’t believe this consolidation has affected our growth much, if at all.” The company also noted that while it’s always evaluating merger opportunities: “We don’t view any assets as ‘must-have’ and we haven’t yet found any large scale ones to be sufficiently compelling to act upon.”\nThere was more bad news in NFLX cash flow, which after last quarter's surge reversed again, and dropped by $175 million, vs a positive cash flow of $899 million a year ago. NFLX notes that it is \"still expecting full year 2021 free cash flow to be approximately break even.\" The company also believes it no longer needs to raise external financing to fund our day-to-day operations. We'll see if at least that promise pans out.\nIn other news, during Q2, NFLX increased its revolving credit facility (which remains undrawn) to $1 billion from $750 million and extended the maturity from 2024 to 2026. The company also repurchased 1 million shares for $500 million (at an average per share price of about $500) under our $5 billion share authorization: the company said its \"main priority is to invest in the organic growth of our business while maintaining strong liquidity and retaining financial flexibility for strategic investments.\"\nAfter all that, the market was unimpressed but it could have been worse: after initially plunging below $500 briefly, the stock has since stabilized down 2% around $515. Among stocks that are down in sympathy, video-streaming platform Roku falls 1.4%.\nNetflix Slides in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"GUID":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":859994697,"gmtCreate":1634648691979,"gmtModify":1634648692281,"author":{"id":"4087270675600580","authorId":"4087270675600580","name":"Viboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d09f36a9730d96a3396498f4bc5453b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087270675600580","authorIdStr":"4087270675600580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859994697","repostId":"1167156425","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167156425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634647992,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167156425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 20:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon and others commit to using zero-carbon shipping fuels by 2040<blockquote>亚马逊等承诺到2040年使用零碳航运燃料</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167156425","media":"Reuters","summary":"Amazon.com Inc(AMZN.O)and IKEA are among commercial users of container shipping that will opt for ze","content":"<p>Amazon.com Inc(AMZN.O)and IKEA are among commercial users of container shipping that will opt for zero-carbon marine fuels by 2040 in a new initiative aimed at speeding up decarbonisation in the maritime sector, executives said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>高管们周二表示，亚马逊公司（AMZN.O）和宜家等集装箱运输商业用户将在2040年之前选择零碳船用燃料，这是一项旨在加速海事行业脱碳的新举措。</blockquote></p><p> With about 90% of world trade transported by sea, global shipping accounts for nearly 3% of the world's CO2 emissions and the sector is under growing scrutiny to become cleaner.</p><p><blockquote>全球约90%的贸易通过海上运输，全球航运业的二氧化碳排放量占全球的近3%，该行业正受到越来越多的审查，以变得更加清洁。</blockquote></p><p> The initiative, which was organised by the non-profit Aspen Institute and has nine signatories so far including others such as Unilever(ULVR.L)and Michelin(MICP.PA), sets a goal for companies to only purchase ocean freight services powered by scalable zero-carbon fuels by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>该倡议由非营利性阿斯彭研究所（Aspen Institute）组织，迄今为止已有九个签署方，其中包括联合利华（ULVR）等其他签署方。L）和米其林（MICP.PA），为公司设定了一个目标，到2040年，只购买由可扩展的零碳燃料提供动力的海运服务。</blockquote></p><p> \"The time to act is now,\" said Edgar Blanco, director, net-zero carbon at Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>“现在是采取行动的时候了，”亚马逊净零碳总监埃德加·布兰科(Edgar Blanco)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Elisabeth Munck af Rosenschöld, sustainability manager, supply chain operations at Inter IKEA Group, said working with others was crucial for developing ocean shipping fuel solutions.</p><p><blockquote>宜家国际集团供应链运营可持续发展经理Elisabeth Munck af Rosenschöld表示，与他人合作对于开发海运燃料解决方案至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> \"The voice of the cargo owners is important since we are one of the stakeholders to enable the transformation in the industry,\" she told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>“货主的声音很重要，因为我们是实现行业转型的利益相关者之一，”她告诉路透社。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are not willing to automatically pay a premium for sustainability, but we are willing to collaborate and to co-create the solutions and share the necessary investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们不愿意自动为可持续发展支付额外费用，但我们愿意合作，共同创造解决方案并分享必要的投资。”</blockquote></p><p> A surge in demand for retail goods while people have been stuck at home due to lockdowns has led to record high container shipping rates in recent months, compounded by port disruptions, which has also led to higher costs for cargo users.</p><p><blockquote>由于封锁，人们被困在家里，对零售商品的需求激增，导致近几个月集装箱运费创历史新高，港口中断加剧了这一情况，这也导致货运用户的成本上升。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Grose, head of logistics at Unilever, said logistics accounted for 15% of the group's total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) footprint and Unilever was \"encouraging our existing carriers to switch to cleaner fuels\".</p><p><blockquote>联合利华物流主管米歇尔·格罗斯(Michelle Grose)表示，物流占该集团温室气体排放(GHG)总量的15%，联合利华“鼓励我们现有的承运商改用更清洁的燃料”。</blockquote></p><p> \"By signalling our combined commitment to zero-emission shipping, we are confident that we will accelerate the transition at the pace and the scale that is needed.\"</p><p><blockquote>“通过表明我们对零排放航运的共同承诺，我们有信心以所需的速度和规模加速转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The United Nations aims to reduce the industry's GHG by 50% from 2008 levels by 2050, with growing calls for a more ambitious target of full decarbonisation by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>联合国的目标是到2050年将该行业的温室气体排放量比2008年的水平减少50%，评级也在不断增长，以实现到2050年全面脱碳的更雄心勃勃的目标。</blockquote></p><p> A 50% reduction will require the swift development of zero or low emission fuels and new designs for ships.</p><p><blockquote>减排50%将需要迅速开发零排放或低排放燃料以及船舶新设计。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon and others commit to using zero-carbon shipping fuels by 2040<blockquote>亚马逊等承诺到2040年使用零碳航运燃料</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon and others commit to using zero-carbon shipping fuels by 2040<blockquote>亚马逊等承诺到2040年使用零碳航运燃料</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 20:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon.com Inc(AMZN.O)and IKEA are among commercial users of container shipping that will opt for zero-carbon marine fuels by 2040 in a new initiative aimed at speeding up decarbonisation in the maritime sector, executives said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>高管们周二表示，亚马逊公司（AMZN.O）和宜家等集装箱运输商业用户将在2040年之前选择零碳船用燃料，这是一项旨在加速海事行业脱碳的新举措。</blockquote></p><p> With about 90% of world trade transported by sea, global shipping accounts for nearly 3% of the world's CO2 emissions and the sector is under growing scrutiny to become cleaner.</p><p><blockquote>全球约90%的贸易通过海上运输，全球航运业的二氧化碳排放量占全球的近3%，该行业正受到越来越多的审查，以变得更加清洁。</blockquote></p><p> The initiative, which was organised by the non-profit Aspen Institute and has nine signatories so far including others such as Unilever(ULVR.L)and Michelin(MICP.PA), sets a goal for companies to only purchase ocean freight services powered by scalable zero-carbon fuels by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>该倡议由非营利性阿斯彭研究所（Aspen Institute）组织，迄今为止已有九个签署方，其中包括联合利华（ULVR）等其他签署方。L）和米其林（MICP.PA），为公司设定了一个目标，到2040年，只购买由可扩展的零碳燃料提供动力的海运服务。</blockquote></p><p> \"The time to act is now,\" said Edgar Blanco, director, net-zero carbon at Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>“现在是采取行动的时候了，”亚马逊净零碳总监埃德加·布兰科(Edgar Blanco)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Elisabeth Munck af Rosenschöld, sustainability manager, supply chain operations at Inter IKEA Group, said working with others was crucial for developing ocean shipping fuel solutions.</p><p><blockquote>宜家国际集团供应链运营可持续发展经理Elisabeth Munck af Rosenschöld表示，与他人合作对于开发海运燃料解决方案至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> \"The voice of the cargo owners is important since we are one of the stakeholders to enable the transformation in the industry,\" she told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>“货主的声音很重要，因为我们是实现行业转型的利益相关者之一，”她告诉路透社。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are not willing to automatically pay a premium for sustainability, but we are willing to collaborate and to co-create the solutions and share the necessary investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们不愿意自动为可持续发展支付额外费用，但我们愿意合作，共同创造解决方案并分享必要的投资。”</blockquote></p><p> A surge in demand for retail goods while people have been stuck at home due to lockdowns has led to record high container shipping rates in recent months, compounded by port disruptions, which has also led to higher costs for cargo users.</p><p><blockquote>由于封锁，人们被困在家里，对零售商品的需求激增，导致近几个月集装箱运费创历史新高，港口中断加剧了这一情况，这也导致货运用户的成本上升。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Grose, head of logistics at Unilever, said logistics accounted for 15% of the group's total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) footprint and Unilever was \"encouraging our existing carriers to switch to cleaner fuels\".</p><p><blockquote>联合利华物流主管米歇尔·格罗斯(Michelle Grose)表示，物流占该集团温室气体排放(GHG)总量的15%，联合利华“鼓励我们现有的承运商改用更清洁的燃料”。</blockquote></p><p> \"By signalling our combined commitment to zero-emission shipping, we are confident that we will accelerate the transition at the pace and the scale that is needed.\"</p><p><blockquote>“通过表明我们对零排放航运的共同承诺，我们有信心以所需的速度和规模加速转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The United Nations aims to reduce the industry's GHG by 50% from 2008 levels by 2050, with growing calls for a more ambitious target of full decarbonisation by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>联合国的目标是到2050年将该行业的温室气体排放量比2008年的水平减少50%，评级也在不断增长，以实现到2050年全面脱碳的更雄心勃勃的目标。</blockquote></p><p> A 50% reduction will require the swift development of zero or low emission fuels and new designs for ships.</p><p><blockquote>减排50%将需要迅速开发零排放或低排放燃料以及船舶新设计。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/amazon-others-commit-using-zero-carbon-shipping-fuels-by-2040-2021-10-19/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/amazon-others-commit-using-zero-carbon-shipping-fuels-by-2040-2021-10-19/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167156425","content_text":"Amazon.com Inc(AMZN.O)and IKEA are among commercial users of container shipping that will opt for zero-carbon marine fuels by 2040 in a new initiative aimed at speeding up decarbonisation in the maritime sector, executives said on Tuesday.\nWith about 90% of world trade transported by sea, global shipping accounts for nearly 3% of the world's CO2 emissions and the sector is under growing scrutiny to become cleaner.\nThe initiative, which was organised by the non-profit Aspen Institute and has nine signatories so far including others such as Unilever(ULVR.L)and Michelin(MICP.PA), sets a goal for companies to only purchase ocean freight services powered by scalable zero-carbon fuels by 2040.\n\"The time to act is now,\" said Edgar Blanco, director, net-zero carbon at Amazon.\nElisabeth Munck af Rosenschöld, sustainability manager, supply chain operations at Inter IKEA Group, said working with others was crucial for developing ocean shipping fuel solutions.\n\"The voice of the cargo owners is important since we are one of the stakeholders to enable the transformation in the industry,\" she told Reuters.\n\"We are not willing to automatically pay a premium for sustainability, but we are willing to collaborate and to co-create the solutions and share the necessary investments.\"\nA surge in demand for retail goods while people have been stuck at home due to lockdowns has led to record high container shipping rates in recent months, compounded by port disruptions, which has also led to higher costs for cargo users.\nMichelle Grose, head of logistics at Unilever, said logistics accounted for 15% of the group's total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) footprint and Unilever was \"encouraging our existing carriers to switch to cleaner fuels\".\n\"By signalling our combined commitment to zero-emission shipping, we are confident that we will accelerate the transition at the pace and the scale that is needed.\"\nThe United Nations aims to reduce the industry's GHG by 50% from 2008 levels by 2050, with growing calls for a more ambitious target of full decarbonisation by 2050.\nA 50% reduction will require the swift development of zero or low emission fuels and new designs for 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