辉漠的个人主页 - 老虎社区

辉漠

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IP属地：湖北

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0勋章

2021-10-18

$滴滴(DIDI)$ 天天看你门发惨有谁比我高的

2016-04-06

$宜人贷(YRD)$ 看到没禁止做空庄要逃了 #对战宜人贷#

2016-05-04

特斯拉$(TSLA)$特斯拉已经让我亏11%了新手死于追高。惨不忍睹

2016-08-08

$LendingClub(LC)$ 今天财报如何？

2024-07-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 颤抖吧多散们哈哈哈

2016-08-22

$iSectors Post-MPT Growth ETF(PMPT)$ 这换手率什么意思

2016-04-29

$Ultra Petroleum Corp(UPL)$ 抄不抄底

2016-08-12

买or等？

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 曾经的我追高，结果连跌 10%了现在看这股一直处于220的界限，老手都知道破了这个点就会有大波线 SO买还是观望呢

2021-12-13

$阿里那(ARNA)$这公司是巴巴的子公司吗[捂脸] 爆拉

2021-08-12

$滴滴(DIDI)$每天都是高开低走呀[思考]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/02/weixin/one_20240205235922083.png\"/></p><p><strong>（网易2022年底以来股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）</strong></p><p>即便是去年冬至日血腥屠杀25%，到现在也基本上收复跌幅了。相比起来同为游戏板块的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，却无法收复那天的跌幅，甚至最惨的时候还一度跌破。腾讯和网易的天壤之别我后面再分析，这里先谈谈网易。</p><p><strong>首先</strong>要说的是游戏板块是一个对龙头很友好的板块，而网易由于多年以来坚持精品策略，许多爆款游戏的生命力能够维持十年以上，护城河极其深厚，像早年的大话西游系列、今年的阴阳师、易水寒等等。<strong>其次</strong>就是这些优势使得网易能够常年保持业绩增长，而且这个增长不怎么受经济周期的干扰。<strong>第三</strong>是科技属性是的公司可以持续降本增效，毛利率持续提升。基于这三点，市场对网易一向极度友好。</p><p>其实以上这三点基本上复合了美股科技巨头的特征，按道理应该是会比较好命的。然而一天暴打25%，也算受尽折辱。</p><p>但最终花了一个月左右的时间就能收复跌幅那次的跌幅，说明市场对网易还是比较尊重，该给的尊严会给的。而且现在恒指跌成这个样网易还能基本上保持在高位，那么将来如果指数反弹，网易只会更强。</p><p><strong>（2）躺平收息。</strong><strong>典型案例：<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">中国神华</a></span>，中海油</strong></p><p>市况不好，资金会倾向于保守收息，因此股息股往往会受到青睐。当然这里面还有一个股息和债息收益之间的跷跷板问题。像2023年初开始就一路狂飙的中移动，就是典型的股息股。岔一句体，目前中移动已经是港股还能维持万亿市值的仅存的几枚硕果了，且行且珍惜吧。</p><p>2023年初那一波暴走，看新闻的股民会把它归结为中特估。当然中特估的因素存在不假，但还有另一层就是炒美联储降息。因为<strong>息率一降，你原先的股息率就超了，那么资金就会涌入你的股票，把股价做上去，对应股息率就会降下来，维持平衡。</strong></p><p><strong>这个逻辑和2023年11月初美联储议息会议确定了利率不再上行之后，神华立马开启一轮暴走的逻辑如出一辙</strong>（下图）<strong>。</strong>如今降息预期稍微松动，而神华、移动这些公司的股票就开始在高位耍赖皮横着不动。什么时候降息预期再起一波，这些股票就会继续向上暴走。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/02/weixin/one_20240205235922196.png\"/></p><p><strong>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>2022年底以来股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）</strong></p><p><strong>（3）周期起伏。</strong><strong>典型案例：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>。</strong></p><p>随着新能源汽车的渗透率逐渐提升，这个板块最初的爆发性已经弱化，反而跟随汽车周期自身的波动性加强。这种板块的公司主要看毛利率，其次看销量。这两个因素构成量和价，即Q（Quantity）和P（Price），即判断周期起伏的一个重要依据。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/02/weixin/one_20240205235922320.png\"/></p><p><strong>（理想汽车股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）</strong></p><p>量价齐升——量增价跌——量价齐跌——量缩价涨。</p><p>2023年新能源汽车经历了从量价齐升到量增价跌的相面转换，而2024年将逐渐过渡到量价齐跌的阶段。对于2024年本身，新能源汽车板块应当避一避，目前Tesla已经跌到180，看似还没跌到底。但后面随着周期的好转，是会再起来的。</p><p><strong>2 熊市必败品种</strong></p><p><strong>（1）巨型蓝筹。</strong><strong>典型案例：腾讯、友邦、港交所</strong></p><p>这三只股票其实2023年业绩都不差，像港交所和腾讯某些季度甚至交出了史上最佳业绩，但股价就是这么无脑跌。腾讯很多网友说受制于南非Nasper减持。但我想说，Nasper是2018年3月份宣布的坚持，2018年腾讯最低跌到240不假，但腾讯史上最高股价700出现在2021年初，明显是在Nasper之后。所以Nasper减持是股民的阿Q式自我安慰。</p><p>腾讯不涨的真正原因在于，与指数太接近。恒指一度被称为“腾指”（腾讯指数），腾讯即恒指，那么如果市场大盘差，腾讯也好不了。</p><p>同理适用于港交所、友邦等等巨盘蓝筹股。由于太接近指数，那么如果指数不行，这些股票都不会太好。</p><p><strong>有人会说，你把这些股票拉上去指数不就好了吗？实情是，指数的影响因素很多，有期指、还有指数期权、国际上还有很多指数投机产品，是人家通过这些衍生工具去做指数的价位，然后带动你这些巨蓝筹被动沽盘，而不是反过来。</strong></p><p><strong>（2）长期亏损。</strong><strong>典型案例：哔哩，快手。</strong></p><p>亏损股有不少都是2018年港交所新政之后上市的。当市场流动性充裕的时候市场会给这些股票以耐心，等他们走出烧钱阶段，进而盈利上岸。但现在流动性收紧这么久，叠加港股市场信心堕落，那么投资者就不愿再等下去，或者说没有耐心了。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>属于长期持续不能盈利的，因此看到从2023年初开始就一路阴跌，无法组织起有效的反弹。而快手属于刚刚上岸的，所以去年4-7月份有过一波短暂的上行，最后的灿烂，但随后市场的表现也显示出，不愿再等了。快手的走势总体上比哔哩要漂亮一点，但也难逃最终走向下跌的宿命。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/02/weixin/one_20240205235922439.png\"/></p><p><strong>（快手股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）</strong></p><p>当然，还有更多那一波借“上市新规”改革登陆港交所的公司，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>、歌礼制药，以及2020-2021那一波IPO热潮的过江之鲫，像奈雪、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02158\">医渡科技</a>之流。这些公司如果长期不能盈利的话，最终都将打回原形。</p><p><strong>（3）过气热点。</strong><strong>典型案例：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">信义光能</a>。</strong></p><p>光伏是过去几年的热点，现在退潮了。将来还能不能起来不一定。</p><p>光伏我倾向于不把它定义为周期，因为他周期太长了，基本上要5-10年才能炒一波，而且中间伴随着技术升级迭代，几乎每一轮周期对于参与者而言都过于惨烈，不论是躬身入局的企业还有投资者。</p><p><strong>（4）无流动性</strong></p><p>太多了，这种股票太多了。不举例了，一天几百万成交金额的，都高危。港股这种地量成交的股票，往往货源归边，稍微放大一点的成交量就可能引发暴跌清仓式暴跌。上周五的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09890\">中旭未来</a>(09890.HK)了解一下。</p><p>好了，必败品种就这些，大家执生回避就好了。</p><p><strong>当然……如果这必败的这几个因素都包含了，也就是说既是指数成分股、盘子不小、还没有业绩支撑持续亏损、而且热点过气市场不愿再给你耐心……那么最终结果一定是死得很惨。</strong>例如：美团。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/02/weixin/one_20240205235922708.png\"/></p><p><strong>（美团2022下半年以来股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）</strong></p><p>当然美团在去年\n Q3\n 业绩之前，市场基本上还是对他比较尊重的，虽然不肯涨，但\n 100\n 港元的价格还能保得住。<strong>但是Q3业绩一出，耗尽了市场的最后一点耐心，于是一掊把你干下去，彻底怼烂，水花不打，到现在股价干到65，似乎还没有见底的迹象。</strong></p><p><strong>3 其它风险</strong></p><p>最后还有一类，涉及大国博弈，被夹在大国之间成为牺牲品的公司，或者有这种潜在风险的公司，也应当回避。典型案例：百度。</p><p>1月15日那天百度缺口暴跌11%，至今缺口无法收复，其真实原因大概就与大国博弈有关。这里不便说，大家自己查新闻吧。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/02/weixin/one_20240205235922980.png\"/></p><p><strong>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>股价一日暴跌11%，来源：富途牛牛）</strong></p><p><strong>像百度这种纯广告公司，叠加一点AI属性，放在美股就是Google和Meta这种级别的。</strong>虽然你的广告、\n AI\n 以及业务模式都是别人的低配版，但从估值角度，\n Google\n 和\n Meta\n 能有\n 20—25\n 倍，你百度最起码\n 15-20\n 倍是应该有的。\n 最差也是\n 12-18\n 倍。\n 那么对应到股价上，\n 120\n 附近应该是底部了。</p><p>但\n 1\n 月\n 15\n 日那天就这么赤裸裸地跌穿\n 100\n 。\n 虽然是错杀，但短期内恐怕难以翻身。\n 而且如果他真的就一直在\n 100\n 附近晃的话，老手都知道盘久必跌，最后什么样的投资策略都无效。</p><p><strong>4 总结</strong></p><p>以上大概就是我对2024年港股投资的基本注意事项了。</p><p><strong>再重复一遍，能够扛过熊市的公司，一定是要</strong>（1）有坚实的业绩支撑、或者（2）有牢固的派息收益、以及（3）不涉及大国博弈的标的。</p><p>而那些（1）烧钱的、（2）亏损的、（3）炒概念的、以及（4）盘子太大接近指数或者（5）盘子太小流动性没有的，以及（6）在大国博弈中有可能牺牲的品种，<strong>都应当尽量远离。</strong></p><p>好了，就这些，祝大家投资愉快，一起熬过港股熊市。</p>\n<div>\n<div>\r\n            责任编辑：史文瑞\r\n          </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>在港股，哪些公司能活过熊市？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n在港股，哪些公司能活过熊市？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-05 23:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://hk.jrj.com.cn/2024/02/05235939440551.shtml><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在港股50多年的漫长历史中，出现过很多轮熊市，每一轮都有不同的特点。自2021年初恒指重上3万点至今，可以说我们一直处在一轮漫长的熊市之中。间中有反弹，但总体趋势是向下的。因此，学会熊市选股策略至关重要。我不知道牛市什么时候重新降临，但只要保证自己在熊市中不死，已经足够跑赢大部分玩家。今天我们就来总结下港股市场能够活过熊市的公司有哪些特征。总结完之后，我们再总结一下哪些公司活不过熊市。概括来说，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://hk.jrj.com.cn/2024/02/05235939440551.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://imgcloud.jrjimg.cn/2024/02/weixin/one_20240205235922083.png","relate_stocks":{"YANG":"三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","YINN":"三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion","07226":"南方两倍做多恒科"},"source_url":"https://hk.jrj.com.cn/2024/02/05235939440551.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2409437019","content_text":"在港股50多年的漫长历史中，出现过很多轮熊市，每一轮都有不同的特点。自2021年初恒指重上3万点至今，可以说我们一直处在一轮漫长的熊市之中。间中有反弹，但总体趋势是向下的。因此，学会熊市选股策略至关重要。我不知道牛市什么时候重新降临，但只要保证自己在熊市中不死，已经足够跑赢大部分玩家。今天我们就来总结下港股市场能够活过熊市的公司有哪些特征。总结完之后，我们再总结一下哪些公司活不过熊市。概括来说，就是熊市必胜品种和熊市必败品种；那么大家要做的就是：关注前者，远离后者。1 熊市必胜品种（1）浓眉大眼。典型案例：网易网易这一年多以来的走势及其雄壮。先看图。（网易2022年底以来股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）即便是去年冬至日血腥屠杀25%，到现在也基本上收复跌幅了。相比起来同为游戏板块的腾讯，却无法收复那天的跌幅，甚至最惨的时候还一度跌破。腾讯和网易的天壤之别我后面再分析，这里先谈谈网易。首先要说的是游戏板块是一个对龙头很友好的板块，而网易由于多年以来坚持精品策略，许多爆款游戏的生命力能够维持十年以上，护城河极其深厚，像早年的大话西游系列、今年的阴阳师、易水寒等等。其次就是这些优势使得网易能够常年保持业绩增长，而且这个增长不怎么受经济周期的干扰。第三是科技属性是的公司可以持续降本增效，毛利率持续提升。基于这三点，市场对网易一向极度友好。其实以上这三点基本上复合了美股科技巨头的特征，按道理应该是会比较好命的。然而一天暴打25%，也算受尽折辱。但最终花了一个月左右的时间就能收复跌幅那次的跌幅，说明市场对网易还是比较尊重，该给的尊严会给的。而且现在恒指跌成这个样网易还能基本上保持在高位，那么将来如果指数反弹，网易只会更强。（2）躺平收息。典型案例：中国神华，中海油市况不好，资金会倾向于保守收息，因此股息股往往会受到青睐。当然这里面还有一个股息和债息收益之间的跷跷板问题。像2023年初开始就一路狂飙的中移动，就是典型的股息股。岔一句体，目前中移动已经是港股还能维持万亿市值的仅存的几枚硕果了，且行且珍惜吧。2023年初那一波暴走，看新闻的股民会把它归结为中特估。当然中特估的因素存在不假，但还有另一层就是炒美联储降息。因为息率一降，你原先的股息率就超了，那么资金就会涌入你的股票，把股价做上去，对应股息率就会降下来，维持平衡。这个逻辑和2023年11月初美联储议息会议确定了利率不再上行之后，神华立马开启一轮暴走的逻辑如出一辙（下图）。如今降息预期稍微松动，而神华、移动这些公司的股票就开始在高位耍赖皮横着不动。什么时候降息预期再起一波，这些股票就会继续向上暴走。（中国神华2022年底以来股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）（3）周期起伏。典型案例：理想汽车。随着新能源汽车的渗透率逐渐提升，这个板块最初的爆发性已经弱化，反而跟随汽车周期自身的波动性加强。这种板块的公司主要看毛利率，其次看销量。这两个因素构成量和价，即Q（Quantity）和P（Price），即判断周期起伏的一个重要依据。（理想汽车股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）量价齐升——量增价跌——量价齐跌——量缩价涨。2023年新能源汽车经历了从量价齐升到量增价跌的相面转换，而2024年将逐渐过渡到量价齐跌的阶段。对于2024年本身，新能源汽车板块应当避一避，目前Tesla已经跌到180，看似还没跌到底。但后面随着周期的好转，是会再起来的。2 熊市必败品种（1）巨型蓝筹。典型案例：腾讯、友邦、港交所这三只股票其实2023年业绩都不差，像港交所和腾讯某些季度甚至交出了史上最佳业绩，但股价就是这么无脑跌。腾讯很多网友说受制于南非Nasper减持。但我想说，Nasper是2018年3月份宣布的坚持，2018年腾讯最低跌到240不假，但腾讯史上最高股价700出现在2021年初，明显是在Nasper之后。所以Nasper减持是股民的阿Q式自我安慰。腾讯不涨的真正原因在于，与指数太接近。恒指一度被称为“腾指”（腾讯指数），腾讯即恒指，那么如果市场大盘差，腾讯也好不了。同理适用于港交所、友邦等等巨盘蓝筹股。由于太接近指数，那么如果指数不行，这些股票都不会太好。有人会说，你把这些股票拉上去指数不就好了吗？实情是，指数的影响因素很多，有期指、还有指数期权、国际上还有很多指数投机产品，是人家通过这些衍生工具去做指数的价位，然后带动你这些巨蓝筹被动沽盘，而不是反过来。（2）长期亏损。典型案例：哔哩，快手。亏损股有不少都是2018年港交所新政之后上市的。当市场流动性充裕的时候市场会给这些股票以耐心，等他们走出烧钱阶段，进而盈利上岸。但现在流动性收紧这么久，叠加港股市场信心堕落，那么投资者就不愿再等下去，或者说没有耐心了。哔哩哔哩属于长期持续不能盈利的，因此看到从2023年初开始就一路阴跌，无法组织起有效的反弹。而快手属于刚刚上岸的，所以去年4-7月份有过一波短暂的上行，最后的灿烂，但随后市场的表现也显示出，不愿再等了。快手的走势总体上比哔哩要漂亮一点，但也难逃最终走向下跌的宿命。（快手股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）当然，还有更多那一波借“上市新规”改革登陆港交所的公司，例如平安好医生、歌礼制药，以及2020-2021那一波IPO热潮的过江之鲫，像奈雪、医渡科技之流。这些公司如果长期不能盈利的话，最终都将打回原形。（3）过气热点。典型案例：信义光能。光伏是过去几年的热点，现在退潮了。将来还能不能起来不一定。光伏我倾向于不把它定义为周期，因为他周期太长了，基本上要5-10年才能炒一波，而且中间伴随着技术升级迭代，几乎每一轮周期对于参与者而言都过于惨烈，不论是躬身入局的企业还有投资者。（4）无流动性太多了，这种股票太多了。不举例了，一天几百万成交金额的，都高危。港股这种地量成交的股票，往往货源归边，稍微放大一点的成交量就可能引发暴跌清仓式暴跌。上周五的中旭未来(09890.HK)了解一下。好了，必败品种就这些，大家执生回避就好了。当然……如果这必败的这几个因素都包含了，也就是说既是指数成分股、盘子不小、还没有业绩支撑持续亏损、而且热点过气市场不愿再给你耐心……那么最终结果一定是死得很惨。例如：美团。（美团2022下半年以来股价走势，数据来源：富途牛牛）当然美团在去年\n Q3\n 业绩之前，市场基本上还是对他比较尊重的，虽然不肯涨，但\n 100\n 港元的价格还能保得住。但是Q3业绩一出，耗尽了市场的最后一点耐心，于是一掊把你干下去，彻底怼烂，水花不打，到现在股价干到65，似乎还没有见底的迹象。3 其它风险最后还有一类，涉及大国博弈，被夹在大国之间成为牺牲品的公司，或者有这种潜在风险的公司，也应当回避。典型案例：百度。1月15日那天百度缺口暴跌11%，至今缺口无法收复，其真实原因大概就与大国博弈有关。这里不便说，大家自己查新闻吧。（百度股价一日暴跌11%，来源：富途牛牛）像百度这种纯广告公司，叠加一点AI属性，放在美股就是Google和Meta这种级别的。虽然你的广告、\n AI\n 以及业务模式都是别人的低配版，但从估值角度，\n Google\n 和\n Meta\n 能有\n 20—25\n 倍，你百度最起码\n 15-20\n 倍是应该有的。\n 最差也是\n 12-18\n 倍。\n 那么对应到股价上，\n 120\n 附近应该是底部了。但\n 1\n 月\n 15\n 日那天就这么赤裸裸地跌穿\n 100\n 。\n 虽然是错杀，但短期内恐怕难以翻身。\n 而且如果他真的就一直在\n 100\n 附近晃的话，老手都知道盘久必跌，最后什么样的投资策略都无效。4 总结以上大概就是我对2024年港股投资的基本注意事项了。再重复一遍，能够扛过熊市的公司，一定是要（1）有坚实的业绩支撑、或者（2）有牢固的派息收益、以及（3）不涉及大国博弈的标的。而那些（1）烧钱的、（2）亏损的、（3）炒概念的、以及（4）盘子太大接近指数或者（5）盘子太小流动性没有的，以及（6）在大国博弈中有可能牺牲的品种，都应当尽量远离。好了，就这些，祝大家投资愉快，一起熬过港股熊市。\n\n\r\n            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