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2021-08-10

Omg

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2021-08-30

Hi

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2021-07-26

Nice

Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-08-19

Wow

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2021-08-15

Oic

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2021-07-19

Oh no

Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-07-03

Wow

These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>

2021-06-25

Wah

Why Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票被福特和通用汽车甩在身后</blockquote>

2021-09-03

Ooh

FDA Weighing Dose of Moderna Covid-19 Booster<blockquote>FDA称重Moderna Covid-19加强剂的剂量</blockquote>

2021-08-12

Ok

Bitcoin ETF Filing Flood Collides With Cooling Demand for Funds<blockquote>比特币ETF备案潮与资金需求降温相冲突</blockquote>

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10:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FDA Weighing Dose of Moderna Covid-19 Booster<blockquote>FDA称重Moderna Covid-19加强剂的剂量</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194913620","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.\n\n","content":"<p>  <b>Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.</b>  The Food and Drug Administration is considering whether to authorize a lower dose ofModernaInc.’sCovid-19 vaccine for boostersthan the dose given in the first two shots, people familiar with the deliberations said.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗制造商已要求机构授权前两次注射一半剂量的加强剂。</b>知情人士称，美国食品和药物管理局正在考虑是否批准ModernaInc.的新冠肺炎疫苗加强剂剂量低于前两次注射的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna said Wednesday it is asking the FDA to authorize a 50 microgram dose, half the dosage of the first two shots. Some in the government are leaning toward authorizing the 100 microgram dose, the people said, because of concerns a lower-dose booster might not offer a durable enough boost to counterfast-changing variants of Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna周三表示，正在要求FDA批准50微克的剂量，是前两次注射剂量的一半。知情人士说，政府中的一些人倾向于授权100微克的剂量，因为担心较低剂量的加强剂可能无法提供足够持久的加强来对抗快速变化的新冠肺炎变种。</blockquote></p><p> No final decision has been made, the people said, as the FDA is still reviewing data from studies that tested boosters using the different doses. People who have seen the data said both doses produce a strong immune response.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，尚未做出最终决定，因为FDA仍在审查使用不同剂量测试加强剂的研究数据。看过数据的人表示，两种剂量都会产生强烈的免疫反应。</blockquote></p><p> Complicating the decision is the fact that the FDA has limited comparative data on which to base their choice, one person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士表示，FDA做出选择所依据的比较数据有限，这一决定变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The continuing deliberations are a reason the agency hasn’t yet authorized boosters, though the people expect a decision soon.</p><p><blockquote>持续的审议是该机构尚未授权助推器的一个原因，尽管人们预计很快就会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> One possible benefit of a lower dose is fewer side effects, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，较低剂量的一个可能好处是副作用更少。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, the Biden administration recommended that adults who got a messenger RNA vaccine from either Moderna orPfizerInc.and partnerBioNTech SEstartgetting boosters this month.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，拜登政府建议从Moderna或辉瑞公司及其合作伙伴BioNTech接种信使RNA疫苗的成年人本月开始接种加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson &amp; Johnson’svaccine is also expected to be included in the boosting strategy,after releasing the first resultsabout its boosters last month. The company said it is engaging with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的疫苗在上个月发布了第一批加强剂结果后，预计也将被纳入加强策略。该公司表示正在与FDA合作。</blockquote></p><p> There is no debate about the booster doses to administer for the Pfizer-BioNTech or J&amp;J vaccines, one of the people said, though a decision on the J&amp;J booster might take longer. Their boosters will be the same doses as the first shots, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，关于辉瑞-BioNTech或强生疫苗的加强剂量没有争议，尽管强生加强剂量的决定可能需要更长时间。该人士说，他们的加强剂量将与第一针相同。</blockquote></p><p> After initially spurning talk about boosters, federal health officials embraced the idea as the contagious Delta variant drove up case counts, even among some peoplewho were vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>在最初拒绝有关加强剂的讨论后，联邦卫生官员接受了这一想法，因为传染性德尔塔变异毒株导致病例数上升，甚至在一些接种疫苗的人中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Also contributing to the change of mind was emerging but inconclusive evidence, from researchers in Israel and elsewhere, suggesting the molecular defenses triggered by vaccinationwanes after several months.</p><p><blockquote>来自以色列和其他地方的研究人员的新证据表明，接种疫苗引发的分子防御在几个月后减弱，这也有助于人们改变想法。</blockquote></p><p> Whether boosters are needed remains up for debate. Some researchers say the evidence is insufficient, while the World Health Organization has urged giving shots to peoplein countries with limited supplies.</p><p><blockquote>是否需要助推器仍有争议。一些研究人员表示，证据不足，而世界卫生组织敦促为供应有限的国家的人们注射疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna and the National Institutes of Health tested both 50 mcg and 100 mcg booster doses in clinical trials.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna和美国国立卫生研究院在临床试验中测试了50微克和100微克的加强剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Modernareleased initial datashowing that a 50 mcg booster strengthened antibodies against Delta and other variants of concern significantly higher than the levels after trial subjects received their two initial doses.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，ModernA发布的初步数据显示，50 mcg加强剂增强了针对Delta和其他令人担忧的变体的抗体，明显高于试验受试者接受两次初始剂量后的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Cambridge, Mass., company has been urging the FDA in recent weeks to authorize a 50 mcg booster, according to people familiar with the matter and a statement announcing its submission on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>马萨诸塞州剑桥。据知情人士和周三宣布提交的一份声明称，该公司最近几周一直在敦促FDA授权一种50微克的加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> The company declined to answer questions early this week about its talks with the FDA, before issuing a statement, saying it had applied for the booster dose authorization at the 50 mcg level.</p><p><blockquote>该公司本周早些时候拒绝回答有关其与FDA谈判的问题，然后发表声明称，它已申请50微克水平的加强剂量授权。</blockquote></p><p> Authorization of a lower dose would allow Moderna to manufacture up to three billion boosters next year, as many as one billion more than it could make of the higher dose.</p><p><blockquote>较低剂量的授权将使Moderna明年能够生产多达30亿个加强剂，比较高剂量的多出多达10亿个。</blockquote></p><p> Yet it would pose several logistical challenges, another person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一位知情人士表示，这将带来一些后勤挑战。</blockquote></p><p> The different dosages may cause confusion at vaccination sites, the people said. Pharmacists would have to prepare the doses in different ways. Nurses would have to be careful to give people the right dose.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，不同的剂量可能会在疫苗接种点造成混乱。药剂师将不得不以不同的方式准备剂量。护士必须小心给人们正确的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue, the person said, is a lower dose would lead to some wasted vaccine, at least until new, smaller vials begin arriving in October.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，另一个问题是，较低的剂量会导致一些疫苗被浪费，至少在10月份新的、更小的疫苗瓶开始到达之前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Current Moderna vials contain enough vaccine for 14 100 mcg doses, but not all of that could be used for smaller doses because the vials can only be entered a certain number of times.</p><p><blockquote>目前的Moderna小瓶包含足够14 100 mcg剂量的疫苗，但并非所有这些都可以用于较小剂量，因为小瓶只能进入一定次数。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. has ordered smaller vials already because they are easier for doctors’ offices and other providers to administer, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，美国已经订购了较小的小瓶，因为它们更容易被医生办公室和其他供应商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It couldn’t be determined why people getting a Moderna booster might need a lower dose than people getting another manufacturer’s vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>无法确定为什么接种Moderna加强剂的人可能比接种另一家制造商疫苗的人需要更低的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Astudy of Belgian healthcare workerspublished Monday in a letter to the Journal of American Medical Association found that Moderna’s vaccine created twice as many antibodies as the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>周一在致《美国医学会杂志》的一封信中发表的一项针对比利时医护人员的研究发现，Moderna的疫苗产生的抗体是辉瑞BioNTech疫苗的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers said the difference might be explained by the higher mRNA content in Moderna’s vaccine as compared with Pfizer-BioNTech’s, as well as the week longer interval between shots for the Moderna vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员表示，与辉瑞-BioNTech的疫苗相比，Moderna疫苗的mRNA含量更高，以及Moderna疫苗的注射间隔更长一周。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. health officials are still figuring out the timing of exactly when people will be eligible to receive boosters.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生官员仍在计算人们何时有资格接受加强剂的确切时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Federal health officials initially said it would be eight months after people have received two doses. The Wall Street Journal has reported the FDA is likelyto authorize boosters at six months.</p><p><blockquote>联邦卫生官员最初表示，人们接种两剂疫苗需要八个月后。《华尔街日报》报道称，FDA可能会在六个月后批准加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden said last week that his administration is weighing whether to begin before eight months, perhaps as early as five months.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统上周表示，他的政府正在权衡是否在八个月前开始，也许最早五个月。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA Weighing Dose of Moderna Covid-19 Booster<blockquote>FDA称重Moderna Covid-19加强剂的剂量</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA Weighing Dose of Moderna Covid-19 Booster<blockquote>FDA称重Moderna Covid-19加强剂的剂量</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 10:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.</b>  The Food and Drug Administration is considering whether to authorize a lower dose ofModernaInc.’sCovid-19 vaccine for boostersthan the dose given in the first two shots, people familiar with the deliberations said.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗制造商已要求机构授权前两次注射一半剂量的加强剂。</b>知情人士称，美国食品和药物管理局正在考虑是否批准ModernaInc.的新冠肺炎疫苗加强剂剂量低于前两次注射的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna said Wednesday it is asking the FDA to authorize a 50 microgram dose, half the dosage of the first two shots. Some in the government are leaning toward authorizing the 100 microgram dose, the people said, because of concerns a lower-dose booster might not offer a durable enough boost to counterfast-changing variants of Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna周三表示，正在要求FDA批准50微克的剂量，是前两次注射剂量的一半。知情人士说，政府中的一些人倾向于授权100微克的剂量，因为担心较低剂量的加强剂可能无法提供足够持久的加强来对抗快速变化的新冠肺炎变种。</blockquote></p><p> No final decision has been made, the people said, as the FDA is still reviewing data from studies that tested boosters using the different doses. People who have seen the data said both doses produce a strong immune response.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，尚未做出最终决定，因为FDA仍在审查使用不同剂量测试加强剂的研究数据。看过数据的人表示，两种剂量都会产生强烈的免疫反应。</blockquote></p><p> Complicating the decision is the fact that the FDA has limited comparative data on which to base their choice, one person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士表示，FDA做出选择所依据的比较数据有限，这一决定变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The continuing deliberations are a reason the agency hasn’t yet authorized boosters, though the people expect a decision soon.</p><p><blockquote>持续的审议是该机构尚未授权助推器的一个原因，尽管人们预计很快就会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> One possible benefit of a lower dose is fewer side effects, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，较低剂量的一个可能好处是副作用更少。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, the Biden administration recommended that adults who got a messenger RNA vaccine from either Moderna orPfizerInc.and partnerBioNTech SEstartgetting boosters this month.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，拜登政府建议从Moderna或辉瑞公司及其合作伙伴BioNTech接种信使RNA疫苗的成年人本月开始接种加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson &amp; Johnson’svaccine is also expected to be included in the boosting strategy,after releasing the first resultsabout its boosters last month. The company said it is engaging with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的疫苗在上个月发布了第一批加强剂结果后，预计也将被纳入加强策略。该公司表示正在与FDA合作。</blockquote></p><p> There is no debate about the booster doses to administer for the Pfizer-BioNTech or J&amp;J vaccines, one of the people said, though a decision on the J&amp;J booster might take longer. Their boosters will be the same doses as the first shots, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，关于辉瑞-BioNTech或强生疫苗的加强剂量没有争议，尽管强生加强剂量的决定可能需要更长时间。该人士说，他们的加强剂量将与第一针相同。</blockquote></p><p> After initially spurning talk about boosters, federal health officials embraced the idea as the contagious Delta variant drove up case counts, even among some peoplewho were vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>在最初拒绝有关加强剂的讨论后，联邦卫生官员接受了这一想法，因为传染性德尔塔变异毒株导致病例数上升，甚至在一些接种疫苗的人中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Also contributing to the change of mind was emerging but inconclusive evidence, from researchers in Israel and elsewhere, suggesting the molecular defenses triggered by vaccinationwanes after several months.</p><p><blockquote>来自以色列和其他地方的研究人员的新证据表明，接种疫苗引发的分子防御在几个月后减弱，这也有助于人们改变想法。</blockquote></p><p> Whether boosters are needed remains up for debate. Some researchers say the evidence is insufficient, while the World Health Organization has urged giving shots to peoplein countries with limited supplies.</p><p><blockquote>是否需要助推器仍有争议。一些研究人员表示，证据不足，而世界卫生组织敦促为供应有限的国家的人们注射疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna and the National Institutes of Health tested both 50 mcg and 100 mcg booster doses in clinical trials.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna和美国国立卫生研究院在临床试验中测试了50微克和100微克的加强剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Modernareleased initial datashowing that a 50 mcg booster strengthened antibodies against Delta and other variants of concern significantly higher than the levels after trial subjects received their two initial doses.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，ModernA发布的初步数据显示，50 mcg加强剂增强了针对Delta和其他令人担忧的变体的抗体，明显高于试验受试者接受两次初始剂量后的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Cambridge, Mass., company has been urging the FDA in recent weeks to authorize a 50 mcg booster, according to people familiar with the matter and a statement announcing its submission on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>马萨诸塞州剑桥。据知情人士和周三宣布提交的一份声明称，该公司最近几周一直在敦促FDA授权一种50微克的加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> The company declined to answer questions early this week about its talks with the FDA, before issuing a statement, saying it had applied for the booster dose authorization at the 50 mcg level.</p><p><blockquote>该公司本周早些时候拒绝回答有关其与FDA谈判的问题，然后发表声明称，它已申请50微克水平的加强剂量授权。</blockquote></p><p> Authorization of a lower dose would allow Moderna to manufacture up to three billion boosters next year, as many as one billion more than it could make of the higher dose.</p><p><blockquote>较低剂量的授权将使Moderna明年能够生产多达30亿个加强剂，比较高剂量的多出多达10亿个。</blockquote></p><p> Yet it would pose several logistical challenges, another person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一位知情人士表示，这将带来一些后勤挑战。</blockquote></p><p> The different dosages may cause confusion at vaccination sites, the people said. Pharmacists would have to prepare the doses in different ways. Nurses would have to be careful to give people the right dose.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，不同的剂量可能会在疫苗接种点造成混乱。药剂师将不得不以不同的方式准备剂量。护士必须小心给人们正确的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue, the person said, is a lower dose would lead to some wasted vaccine, at least until new, smaller vials begin arriving in October.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，另一个问题是，较低的剂量会导致一些疫苗被浪费，至少在10月份新的、更小的疫苗瓶开始到达之前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Current Moderna vials contain enough vaccine for 14 100 mcg doses, but not all of that could be used for smaller doses because the vials can only be entered a certain number of times.</p><p><blockquote>目前的Moderna小瓶包含足够14 100 mcg剂量的疫苗，但并非所有这些都可以用于较小剂量，因为小瓶只能进入一定次数。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. has ordered smaller vials already because they are easier for doctors’ offices and other providers to administer, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，美国已经订购了较小的小瓶，因为它们更容易被医生办公室和其他供应商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It couldn’t be determined why people getting a Moderna booster might need a lower dose than people getting another manufacturer’s vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>无法确定为什么接种Moderna加强剂的人可能比接种另一家制造商疫苗的人需要更低的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Astudy of Belgian healthcare workerspublished Monday in a letter to the Journal of American Medical Association found that Moderna’s vaccine created twice as many antibodies as the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>周一在致《美国医学会杂志》的一封信中发表的一项针对比利时医护人员的研究发现，Moderna的疫苗产生的抗体是辉瑞BioNTech疫苗的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers said the difference might be explained by the higher mRNA content in Moderna’s vaccine as compared with Pfizer-BioNTech’s, as well as the week longer interval between shots for the Moderna vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员表示，与辉瑞-BioNTech的疫苗相比，Moderna疫苗的mRNA含量更高，以及Moderna疫苗的注射间隔更长一周。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. health officials are still figuring out the timing of exactly when people will be eligible to receive boosters.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生官员仍在计算人们何时有资格接受加强剂的确切时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Federal health officials initially said it would be eight months after people have received two doses. The Wall Street Journal has reported the FDA is likelyto authorize boosters at six months.</p><p><blockquote>联邦卫生官员最初表示，人们接种两剂疫苗需要八个月后。《华尔街日报》报道称，FDA可能会在六个月后批准加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden said last week that his administration is weighing whether to begin before eight months, perhaps as early as five months.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统上周表示，他的政府正在权衡是否在八个月前开始，也许最早五个月。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-weighing-dose-of-moderna-covid-19-booster-11630593980?mod=business_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-weighing-dose-of-moderna-covid-19-booster-11630593980?mod=business_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194913620","content_text":"Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.\n\nThe Food and Drug Administration is considering whether to authorize a lower dose ofModernaInc.’sCovid-19 vaccine for boostersthan the dose given in the first two shots, people familiar with the deliberations said.\nModerna said Wednesday it is asking the FDA to authorize a 50 microgram dose, half the dosage of the first two shots. Some in the government are leaning toward authorizing the 100 microgram dose, the people said, because of concerns a lower-dose booster might not offer a durable enough boost to counterfast-changing variants of Covid-19.\nNo final decision has been made, the people said, as the FDA is still reviewing data from studies that tested boosters using the different doses. People who have seen the data said both doses produce a strong immune response.\nComplicating the decision is the fact that the FDA has limited comparative data on which to base their choice, one person familiar with the discussions said.\nThe continuing deliberations are a reason the agency hasn’t yet authorized boosters, though the people expect a decision soon.\nOne possible benefit of a lower dose is fewer side effects, people familiar with the matter said.\nLast month, the Biden administration recommended that adults who got a messenger RNA vaccine from either Moderna orPfizerInc.and partnerBioNTech SEstartgetting boosters this month.\nJohnson & Johnson’svaccine is also expected to be included in the boosting strategy,after releasing the first resultsabout its boosters last month. The company said it is engaging with the FDA.\nThere is no debate about the booster doses to administer for the Pfizer-BioNTech or J&J vaccines, one of the people said, though a decision on the J&J booster might take longer. Their boosters will be the same doses as the first shots, the person said.\nAfter initially spurning talk about boosters, federal health officials embraced the idea as the contagious Delta variant drove up case counts, even among some peoplewho were vaccinated.\nAlso contributing to the change of mind was emerging but inconclusive evidence, from researchers in Israel and elsewhere, suggesting the molecular defenses triggered by vaccinationwanes after several months.\nWhether boosters are needed remains up for debate. Some researchers say the evidence is insufficient, while the World Health Organization has urged giving shots to peoplein countries with limited supplies.\nModerna and the National Institutes of Health tested both 50 mcg and 100 mcg booster doses in clinical trials.\nLast month, Modernareleased initial datashowing that a 50 mcg booster strengthened antibodies against Delta and other variants of concern significantly higher than the levels after trial subjects received their two initial doses.\nThe Cambridge, Mass., company has been urging the FDA in recent weeks to authorize a 50 mcg booster, according to people familiar with the matter and a statement announcing its submission on Wednesday.\nThe company declined to answer questions early this week about its talks with the FDA, before issuing a statement, saying it had applied for the booster dose authorization at the 50 mcg level.\nAuthorization of a lower dose would allow Moderna to manufacture up to three billion boosters next year, as many as one billion more than it could make of the higher dose.\nYet it would pose several logistical challenges, another person familiar with the discussions said.\nThe different dosages may cause confusion at vaccination sites, the people said. Pharmacists would have to prepare the doses in different ways. Nurses would have to be careful to give people the right dose.\nAnother issue, the person said, is a lower dose would lead to some wasted vaccine, at least until new, smaller vials begin arriving in October.\nCurrent Moderna vials contain enough vaccine for 14 100 mcg doses, but not all of that could be used for smaller doses because the vials can only be entered a certain number of times.\nThe U.S. has ordered smaller vials already because they are easier for doctors’ offices and other providers to administer, the person said.\nIt couldn’t be determined why people getting a Moderna booster might need a lower dose than people getting another manufacturer’s vaccine.\nAstudy of Belgian healthcare workerspublished Monday in a letter to the Journal of American Medical Association found that Moderna’s vaccine created twice as many antibodies as the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.\nThe researchers said the difference might be explained by the higher mRNA content in Moderna’s vaccine as compared with Pfizer-BioNTech’s, as well as the week longer interval between shots for the Moderna vaccine.\nU.S. health officials are still figuring out the timing of exactly when people will be eligible to receive boosters.\nFederal health officials initially said it would be eight months after people have received two doses. The Wall Street Journal has reported the FDA is likelyto authorize boosters at six months.\nPresident Biden said last week that his administration is weighing whether to begin before eight months, perhaps as early as five months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811935594,"gmtCreate":1630283006818,"gmtModify":1704957708386,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811935594","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813246346,"gmtCreate":1630208333485,"gmtModify":1704957058956,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813246346","repostId":"1129129956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129129956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630201285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129129956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-29 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天会让你变得富有</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129129956","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.Real estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologieshas been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company  merger. In a race to disrupt residential ","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying业务是一场做大的竞赛，Opendoor正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有SPAC都持悲观态度，这使得Opendoor成为最终可能带来巨额回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>开门技术</b>（纳斯达克：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行情况一直处于高水平。在颠覆全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor的长期潜力可能会为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上行空间，市场尚未欣赏Opendoor的成就；该股较高点下跌超过50%。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor可能是一个引人注目的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1.Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房流程缓慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这造成了大量来回的文书工作，平均将流程拖到30多天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字化成交流程。然后公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理商和一些与传统成交相关的费用，如代理商佣金。然后Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并收取高达5%的交易服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到Opendoor凭借iBuying概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供iBuying服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型程度（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司都在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易数量的增加，其定价算法也会改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的待售房屋库存。该公司目前约有3,300套待售房屋，比Zillow多53%，是Offerpad的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2、营收增速提前</h3>当公司通过SpacMerger上市时，他们会公开介绍自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即2020年9月，Opendoor发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近的2021年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人Eric Wu在财报看涨期权上表示，“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过2023年的目标，比计划提前了整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果Opendoor按照目前的业务水平运营12个月，它将超过2023年预计的98亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果Opendoor已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到2023年它会在哪里？当然，房地产市场下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱公司的增长速度，但Opendoor正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC失宠于市场……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注Opendoor通过SPAC合并加入公开市场的事实。对于前SPAC来说，经营业绩或收益如何并不重要；几个月来，股市几乎一直在抛售所有基于SPAC的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“不良苹果”公司的欺诈行为感到震惊，而其他公司也严重未能实现上市前的预测。这些事件激怒了相关人员，投资者对SPAC整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像Opendoor这样的公司继续超出预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们采纳Eric Wu对收入的评论，并假设Opendoor在2022年的销售额为100亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持目前的速度），那么该股目前的市销率(P/S)比率仅为1.0。这是一个便宜的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手Zillow Group的市盈率超过3，反映了Opendoor作为前SPAC的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，也是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>“但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天会让你变得富有</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Unloved Tech Stock Could Make You Rich One Day<blockquote>这只不受欢迎的科技股有一天会让你变得富有</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-29 09:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.</li>  <li>The company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.</li>  <li>The market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>iBuying业务是一场做大的竞赛，Opendoor正在获胜。</li><li>该公司的增长速度比管理层一年前的预测提前了两年。</li><li>市场对几乎所有SPAC都持悲观态度，这使得Opendoor成为最终可能带来巨额回报的便宜货。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Real estate iBuying company&nbsp;<b>Opendoor Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>房地产iBuying公司<b>开门技术</b>（纳斯达克：OPEN）自通过特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）合并上市以来，三个季度的执行情况一直处于高水平。在颠覆全球最大市场之一住宅房地产的竞赛中，Opendoor的长期潜力可能会为耐心的投资者带来丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有上行空间，市场尚未欣赏Opendoor的成就；该股较高点下跌超过50%。有三个重要线索表明，对于大胆的投资者来说，Opendoor可能是一个引人注目的投资理念。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle</h3> The traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.</p><p><blockquote><h3>1.Opendoor正在赢得iBuying之战</h3>美国传统的购房流程缓慢，由多方处理，包括代理人、律师、检查员和银行家。这造成了大量来回的文书工作，平均将流程拖到30多天。</blockquote></p><p> Opendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>Opendoor开创了“iBuying”的概念，即房屋的买卖是数字化的，像Opendoor这样的公司直接与卖家合作，为他们提供现金报价和数字化成交流程。然后公司在市场上转售房子。iBuying流程省去了代理商和一些与传统成交相关的费用，如代理商佣金。然后Opendoor在市场上转售房屋，并收取高达5%的交易服务费。</blockquote></p><p> After seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.</p><p><blockquote>在看到Opendoor凭借iBuying概念稳步增长后，竞争对手也开始提供iBuying服务，包括<b>Zillow集团</b>和Offerpad。由于该业务的资本密集型程度（买卖数千套房屋需要大量资金）以及房地产市场的价格竞争力，这些公司都在竞相做大。随着公司买卖更多房屋，他们有能力通过利用外包承包商来节省资金来获得更多利润，并且随着交易数量的增加，其定价算法也会改进。</blockquote></p><p> According to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.</p><p><blockquote>根据专门跟踪iBuying竞争对手的网站iBuyerStats的数据，Opendoor一直拥有最多的待售房屋库存。该公司目前约有3,300套待售房屋，比Zillow多53%，是Offerpad的四倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule</h3> When companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.</p><p><blockquote><h3>2、营收增速提前</h3>当公司通过SpacMerger上市时，他们会公开介绍自己的业务，通常包括长期增长预测。大约一年前，即2020年9月，Opendoor发布了合并前投资者演示文稿。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"</p><p><blockquote>快进到该公司最近的2021年第二季度收益看涨期权。首席执行官兼创始人Eric Wu在财报看涨期权上表示，“……根据我们目前的进展，我们下半年的收入运行率有望超过2023年的目标，比计划提前了整整两年。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，如果Opendoor按照目前的业务水平运营12个月，它将超过2023年预计的98亿美元收入。这是一个被忽视的点，因为如果Opendoor已经比其最初的增长曲线提前了两年，那么到2023年它会在哪里？当然，房地产市场下滑或其他事件可能会扰乱公司的增长速度，但Opendoor正在向世界展示该业务正在高水平运营。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?</h3> Investors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.</p><p><blockquote><h3>3、SPAC失宠于市场……机会？</h3>投资者忽略了这一强劲表现，而是关注Opendoor通过SPAC合并加入公开市场的事实。对于前SPAC来说，经营业绩或收益如何并不重要；几个月来，股市几乎一直在抛售所有基于SPAC的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对少数“不良苹果”公司的欺诈行为感到震惊，而其他公司也严重未能实现上市前的预测。这些事件激怒了相关人员，投资者对SPAC整体采取了更加谨慎的态度。</blockquote></p><p> But if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.</p><p><blockquote>但如果像Opendoor这样的公司继续超出预期，市场最终可能会好转。当这种情况发生时，股价可能会大幅波动。如果我们采纳Eric Wu对收入的评论，并假设Opendoor在2022年的销售额为100亿美元（换句话说，Opendoor在接下来的一年里停止增长并保持目前的速度），那么该股目前的市销率(P/S)比率仅为1.0。这是一个便宜的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Competitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手Zillow Group的市盈率超过3，反映了Opendoor作为前SPAC的折扣。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h3>Here's the bottom line</h3> Real estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"<b>Amazon</b>\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is&nbsp;poised to be a big player&nbsp;in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.</p><p><blockquote><h3>这是底线</h3>房地产是一个巨大的市场，也是一个复杂的行业，因为传统代理商和试图将技术引入购房的“新人”之间存在冲突。现在说Opendoor将成为“<b>亚马逊</b>“但似乎可以肯定的是，如果该公司继续保持这样的表现，它将成为房地产未来的重要参与者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OPEN":"Opendoor Technologies Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/28/this-unloved-tech-stock-may-make-you-rich-one-day/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129129956","content_text":"Key Points\n\nThe iBuying business is a race to grow larger, and Opendoor is winning.\nThe company is growing at a rate that is two years ahead of what management projected just a year earlier.\nThe market is bearish on virtually all SPACs, making Opendoor a bargain that could eventually bring huge returns.\n\n\nReal estate iBuying company Opendoor Technologies(NASDAQ:OPEN)has been executing at a high level in the three quarters since coming public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger. In a race to disrupt residential real estate, one of the largest markets in the world, Opendoor's long-term potential could bring big returns for patient investors.\nDespite the upside, the market hasn't yet appreciated Opendoor's accomplishments; the stock is down more than 50% from its highs. There are three important clues that Opendoor could be a compelling investment idea for bold investors.\n1. Opendoor is winning the iBuying battle\nThe traditional home-buying process in the United States is slow and handled by multiple parties, including agents, lawyers, inspectors, and bankers. This creates a lot of back and forth paperwork and drags the process out to more than 30 days, on average.\nOpendoor pioneered the concept of \"iBuying,\" where the buying and selling of a house are digitized, and a company like Opendoor works directly with sellers to provide them with a cash offer and a digital closing process. The company then resells the house on the market. The iBuying process cuts out agents and some of the fees associated with traditional closings, such as agent commissions. Opendoor then resells the house on the market and charges a service fee of up to 5% on the transaction.\nAfter seeing Opendoor steadily grow with its iBuying concept, competitors have also begun to offer iBuying services, including Zillow Group and Offerpad. Because of how capital intensive the business is (a lot of money is needed to buy and sell thousands of houses) and how price competitive the housing market is, these companies are racing to get as big as possible. As the companies buy and sell more homes, they have the ability to become more profitable by leveraging outsourced contractors to save money, and its pricing algorithm improves as it sees more transactions.\nAccording to iBuyerStats, a website dedicated to tracking the competitors found in iBuying, Opendoor has consistently had the most housing inventory available for sale. It currently has roughly 3,300 houses for sale, 53% more than Zillow and more than four times as many as Offerpad.\n2. Revenue growth is ahead of schedule\nWhen companies go public viaSPACmerger, they lay out a public presentation of their business, often including long-term growth projections. Opendoor laid out its pre-merger investor presentation about a year ago, in September 2020.\nFast forward to the company's recent 2021 Q2 earnings call. CEO and founder Eric Wu said on the earnings call, \"... based on our current progress, our second half revenue run rate is on track to exceed our 2023 target, a full two years ahead of plan.\"\nIn other words, if Opendoor were to operate for 12 months at the level the business currently is, it would surpass the $9.8 billion in revenue it projected for 2023. This is an underlooked point because if Opendoor is already two years ahead of its original growth curve, where will it be by 2023? Sure, a dip in the housing market or other events could disrupt the company's speed of growth, but Opendoor is showing the world that the business is operating at a high level.\n3. SPACs are out of favor with the market... opportunity?\nInvestors have overlooked this strong performance, focusing instead on the fact that Opendoor joined the public market via SPAC merger. It has hardly mattered what operating results or earnings have looked like for former SPACs; the stock market has been selling off virtually all SPAC-based stocks for several months now.\nInvestors have been spooked by a handful of \"bad apple\" companies turning up fraudulent, and other companies have wildly missed on the projections they made before going public. These instances have burned those involved, and investors have taken a much more cautious attitude toward SPACs as a whole.\nBut if companies like Opendoor keep blowing away estimates, the market is likely to come around eventually. When it does, the stock price could move aggressively. If we take Eric Wu's comments about revenue and assume that Opendoor does sales of $10 billion in 2022 (in other words, Opendoor stops growing and maintains its current pace over the following year), the stock currently trades at aprice-to-sales(P/S) ratio of just 1.0. That's a bargain-bin valuation.\nCompetitor Zillow Group trades at a P/S ratio of more than 3, reflecting Opendoor's discount as a former SPAC.\nHere's the bottom line\nReal estate is a huge market, and it's a complicated industry because of the clash between traditional agents and the \"new kids\" on the block trying to bring technology into homebuying. It's too early to say that Opendoor will become the \"Amazon\" of home buying, but what seems certain is that the company is poised to be a big player in real estate's future if it keeps performing like this.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OPEN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838849746,"gmtCreate":1629387023385,"gmtModify":1633685206365,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838849746","repostId":"2160760167","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831328628,"gmtCreate":1629290400064,"gmtModify":1633685951991,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831328628","repostId":"1184240135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839364030,"gmtCreate":1629122873720,"gmtModify":1633687232651,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839364030","repostId":"2159863223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897484969,"gmtCreate":1628959019151,"gmtModify":1633688296022,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oic&nbsp;","listText":"Oic&nbsp;","text":"Oic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897484969","repostId":"2159655218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895936106,"gmtCreate":1628701501105,"gmtModify":1633744993283,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895936106","repostId":"1197984437","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197984437","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628695457,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197984437?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin ETF Filing Flood Collides With Cooling Demand for Funds<blockquote>比特币ETF备案潮与资金需求降温相冲突</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197984437","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of op","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of optimism among Bitcoin exchange-traded fund advocates this month -- but it’s unclear whether investors share that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler本月在比特币交易所交易基金倡导者中点燃了新一波乐观情绪，但尚不清楚投资者是否也有这种热情。</blockquote></p><p> Digital-asset investment products from Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares and others saw outflows for the fifth straight week, the longest such streak since January 2018, according to data compiled by CoinShares. The outflows total roughly $93 million over that stretch. Much of it is thanks to money being yanked away from Bitcoin products, according to the digital-asset manager.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinShares汇编的数据，Grayscale、Bitwise、21Shares和其他公司的数字资产投资产品连续第五周出现资金外流，这是自2018年1月以来最长的连续流出。在此期间，资金外流总额约为9300万美元。这位数字资产管理公司表示，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币产品的资金被抽走。</blockquote></p><p> The cooling appetite stands in contrast to the growing pile of cryptocurrency ETF filings, with at least 18 applications landing with the SEC this year. That tally grew by three in the past two weeks after Gensler signaled that regulators may be more open to a Bitcoin ETF if it was based around futures rather than the cryptocurrency itself. However, even if the SEC finally green-lights the fund structure, it’s not a sure bet that a Bitcoin ETF would be met with huge demand, according to Meltem Demirors of Coinshares.</p><p><blockquote>这种降温的兴趣与越来越多的加密货币ETF申请形成鲜明对比，今年至少有18份申请提交给了SEC。Gensler表示，如果比特币ETF基于期货而不是加密货币本身，监管机构可能会对其更加开放，这一数字在过去两周内增加了三个。然而，Coinshares的Meltem Demirors表示，即使SEC最终批准了该基金结构，也不能肯定比特币ETF会满足巨大的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s so many venues for people to buy and sell Bitcoin, to get exposure to Bitcoin in tax-managed accounts,” said Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares. “We’re not really sure what the demand will look like because is the maturation of crypto in the U.S. is already quite high.”</p><p><blockquote>CoinShares首席战略官Demirors表示：“人们有很多地方可以买卖比特币，通过税务管理账户接触比特币。”“我们并不真正确定需求会是什么样子，因为美国加密货币的成熟度已经相当高。”</blockquote></p><p> After setting an all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April, Bitcoin resumed its volatile price swings. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped below $30,000 in June as environmental and regulatory concerns hammered sentiment. Bitcoin has since rebounded to more than $46,000, even as the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure bill that would allow for broad oversight of virtual currencies.</p><p><blockquote>在4月份创下近65,000美元的历史新高后，比特币恢复了价格波动。由于环境和监管担忧打击了市场情绪，全球最大的加密货币在6月份跌破30,000美元。此后，比特币已反弹至46,000美元以上，尽管美国。参议院通过了一项基础设施法案，允许对虚拟货币进行广泛监管。</blockquote></p><p> However, fund flows have yet to match the rebound. Bitcoin funds and futures are on track for a third straight month of outflows, the longest streak in data going back to 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The bulk of that decline is due to decreasing open interest in Bitcoin futures, meaning traders let their contracts roll off without renewing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，资金流尚未与反弹相匹配。根据彭博资讯的数据，比特币基金和期货有望连续第三个月出现资金外流，这是自2014年以来最长的数据连续流出。下降的主要原因是比特币期货的未平仓合约减少，这意味着交易员让他们的合约在没有续签的情况下到期。</blockquote></p><p> The outflows might even be bigger, if not for the fact that the $30 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) -- the largest crypto fund -- doesn’t allow for share redemptions. That’s after shares of the trust ballooned by the hundreds of millions earlier this year amid the crypto craze. As a result, GBTC has traded at a persistent discount to its underlying Bitcoin since March.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是因为价值300亿美元的灰度比特币信托基金（股票代码GBTC）——最大的加密货币基金——不允许股票赎回，资金流出可能会更大。今年早些时候，在加密货币热潮中，该信托的股价飙升了数亿美元。因此，自3月份以来，GBTC的交易价格一直低于其基础比特币。</blockquote></p><p> But still, in the eyes of Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart, it’s just a matter of time before investors flood back into crypto funds.</p><p><blockquote>但在彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)的James Seyffart看来，投资者重新涌入加密货币基金只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still demand for Bitcoin products that people can access on the traditional financial system rails, if you will,” Seyffart said. “Flows tend to follow performance in areas and products like this, so with the recent weeks of performance for Bitcoin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those flow numbers potentially turn around.”</p><p><blockquote>塞法特说：“我认为，如果你愿意的话，人们仍然可以在传统金融系统轨道上访问比特币产品。”“流量往往会跟随此类领域和产品的表现，因此根据比特币最近几周的表现，看到这些流量数字可能出现逆转，我不会感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin ETF Filing Flood Collides With Cooling Demand for Funds<blockquote>比特币ETF备案潮与资金需求降温相冲突</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin ETF Filing Flood Collides With Cooling Demand for Funds<blockquote>比特币ETF备案潮与资金需求降温相冲突</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-11 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of optimism among Bitcoin exchange-traded fund advocates this month -- but it’s unclear whether investors share that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler本月在比特币交易所交易基金倡导者中点燃了新一波乐观情绪，但尚不清楚投资者是否也有这种热情。</blockquote></p><p> Digital-asset investment products from Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares and others saw outflows for the fifth straight week, the longest such streak since January 2018, according to data compiled by CoinShares. The outflows total roughly $93 million over that stretch. Much of it is thanks to money being yanked away from Bitcoin products, according to the digital-asset manager.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinShares汇编的数据，Grayscale、Bitwise、21Shares和其他公司的数字资产投资产品连续第五周出现资金外流，这是自2018年1月以来最长的连续流出。在此期间，资金外流总额约为9300万美元。这位数字资产管理公司表示，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币产品的资金被抽走。</blockquote></p><p> The cooling appetite stands in contrast to the growing pile of cryptocurrency ETF filings, with at least 18 applications landing with the SEC this year. That tally grew by three in the past two weeks after Gensler signaled that regulators may be more open to a Bitcoin ETF if it was based around futures rather than the cryptocurrency itself. However, even if the SEC finally green-lights the fund structure, it’s not a sure bet that a Bitcoin ETF would be met with huge demand, according to Meltem Demirors of Coinshares.</p><p><blockquote>这种降温的兴趣与越来越多的加密货币ETF申请形成鲜明对比，今年至少有18份申请提交给了SEC。Gensler表示，如果比特币ETF基于期货而不是加密货币本身，监管机构可能会对其更加开放，这一数字在过去两周内增加了三个。然而，Coinshares的Meltem Demirors表示，即使SEC最终批准了该基金结构，也不能肯定比特币ETF会满足巨大的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s so many venues for people to buy and sell Bitcoin, to get exposure to Bitcoin in tax-managed accounts,” said Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares. “We’re not really sure what the demand will look like because is the maturation of crypto in the U.S. is already quite high.”</p><p><blockquote>CoinShares首席战略官Demirors表示：“人们有很多地方可以买卖比特币，通过税务管理账户接触比特币。”“我们并不真正确定需求会是什么样子，因为美国加密货币的成熟度已经相当高。”</blockquote></p><p> After setting an all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April, Bitcoin resumed its volatile price swings. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped below $30,000 in June as environmental and regulatory concerns hammered sentiment. Bitcoin has since rebounded to more than $46,000, even as the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure bill that would allow for broad oversight of virtual currencies.</p><p><blockquote>在4月份创下近65,000美元的历史新高后，比特币恢复了价格波动。由于环境和监管担忧打击了市场情绪，全球最大的加密货币在6月份跌破30,000美元。此后，比特币已反弹至46,000美元以上，尽管美国。参议院通过了一项基础设施法案，允许对虚拟货币进行广泛监管。</blockquote></p><p> However, fund flows have yet to match the rebound. Bitcoin funds and futures are on track for a third straight month of outflows, the longest streak in data going back to 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The bulk of that decline is due to decreasing open interest in Bitcoin futures, meaning traders let their contracts roll off without renewing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，资金流尚未与反弹相匹配。根据彭博资讯的数据，比特币基金和期货有望连续第三个月出现资金外流，这是自2014年以来最长的数据连续流出。下降的主要原因是比特币期货的未平仓合约减少，这意味着交易员让他们的合约在没有续签的情况下到期。</blockquote></p><p> The outflows might even be bigger, if not for the fact that the $30 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) -- the largest crypto fund -- doesn’t allow for share redemptions. That’s after shares of the trust ballooned by the hundreds of millions earlier this year amid the crypto craze. As a result, GBTC has traded at a persistent discount to its underlying Bitcoin since March.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是因为价值300亿美元的灰度比特币信托基金（股票代码GBTC）——最大的加密货币基金——不允许股票赎回，资金流出可能会更大。今年早些时候，在加密货币热潮中，该信托的股价飙升了数亿美元。因此，自3月份以来，GBTC的交易价格一直低于其基础比特币。</blockquote></p><p> But still, in the eyes of Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart, it’s just a matter of time before investors flood back into crypto funds.</p><p><blockquote>但在彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)的James Seyffart看来，投资者重新涌入加密货币基金只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still demand for Bitcoin products that people can access on the traditional financial system rails, if you will,” Seyffart said. “Flows tend to follow performance in areas and products like this, so with the recent weeks of performance for Bitcoin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those flow numbers potentially turn around.”</p><p><blockquote>塞法特说：“我认为，如果你愿意的话，人们仍然可以在传统金融系统轨道上访问比特币产品。”“流量往往会跟随此类领域和产品的表现，因此根据比特币最近几周的表现，看到这些流量数字可能出现逆转，我不会感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-filing-flood-collides-150226371.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-filing-flood-collides-150226371.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197984437","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of optimism among Bitcoin exchange-traded fund advocates this month -- but it’s unclear whether investors share that enthusiasm.\nDigital-asset investment products from Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares and others saw outflows for the fifth straight week, the longest such streak since January 2018, according to data compiled by CoinShares. The outflows total roughly $93 million over that stretch. Much of it is thanks to money being yanked away from Bitcoin products, according to the digital-asset manager.\nThe cooling appetite stands in contrast to the growing pile of cryptocurrency ETF filings, with at least 18 applications landing with the SEC this year. That tally grew by three in the past two weeks after Gensler signaled that regulators may be more open to a Bitcoin ETF if it was based around futures rather than the cryptocurrency itself. However, even if the SEC finally green-lights the fund structure, it’s not a sure bet that a Bitcoin ETF would be met with huge demand, according to Meltem Demirors of Coinshares.\n“There’s so many venues for people to buy and sell Bitcoin, to get exposure to Bitcoin in tax-managed accounts,” said Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares. “We’re not really sure what the demand will look like because is the maturation of crypto in the U.S. is already quite high.”\nAfter setting an all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April, Bitcoin resumed its volatile price swings. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped below $30,000 in June as environmental and regulatory concerns hammered sentiment. Bitcoin has since rebounded to more than $46,000, even as the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure bill that would allow for broad oversight of virtual currencies.\nHowever, fund flows have yet to match the rebound. Bitcoin funds and futures are on track for a third straight month of outflows, the longest streak in data going back to 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The bulk of that decline is due to decreasing open interest in Bitcoin futures, meaning traders let their contracts roll off without renewing.\nThe outflows might even be bigger, if not for the fact that the $30 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) -- the largest crypto fund -- doesn’t allow for share redemptions. That’s after shares of the trust ballooned by the hundreds of millions earlier this year amid the crypto craze. As a result, GBTC has traded at a persistent discount to its underlying Bitcoin since March.\nBut still, in the eyes of Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart, it’s just a matter of time before investors flood back into crypto funds.\n“I think there’s still demand for Bitcoin products that people can access on the traditional financial system rails, if you will,” Seyffart said. “Flows tend to follow performance in areas and products like this, so with the recent weeks of performance for Bitcoin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those flow numbers potentially turn around.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896008828,"gmtCreate":1628526104664,"gmtModify":1633746417833,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896008828","repostId":"1178202513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177244943,"gmtCreate":1627228979282,"gmtModify":1633767023790,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177244943","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176139818,"gmtCreate":1626869981234,"gmtModify":1633770281657,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting read&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting read&nbsp;","text":"Interesting read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176139818","repostId":"1167040166","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176130200,"gmtCreate":1626869939800,"gmtModify":1633770282515,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176130200","repostId":"2153610465","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171040540,"gmtCreate":1626698928780,"gmtModify":1633924856122,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171040540","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171057739,"gmtCreate":1626698894721,"gmtModify":1633924856683,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171057739","repostId":"1135910714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135910714","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626692784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135910714?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 19:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135910714","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor","content":"<p><ul>  <li>The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.</li>  <li>Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.</li>  <li>Oil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;19)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货早盘抛售加速。</li><li>潘兴广场Tontine Holdings、特斯拉汽车、小鹏汽车在盘前交易中涨幅最大。</li><li>石油扩大跌幅，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，此前昨天的欧佩克+协议被许多人视为看涨，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</li></ul>（七月十九日）美国。由于担心德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株蔓延将拖累全球经济，股票期货、油价和政府债券收益率下滑。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>-100 fell 0.89%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:09，标普500期货下跌1.11%，标志着股市大盘在周五连续三周上涨后开盘下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数合约下跌1.35%。以技术为中心的未来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>-100跌0.89%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78212dd3d7e6d2af95d4495fa43cf583\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Surging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.</p><p><blockquote>世界许多地区的冠状病毒病例激增，包括英国等疫苗接种率高的国家，促使投资者降低了对未来几个月经济增长的预期。一些人还担心，物价大幅上涨将抑制消费，并促使央行撤回刺激措施，从而创造一个增长放缓、通胀上升的环境，股市往往会陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> “What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>北欧资产管理公司高级宏观策略师塞巴斯蒂安·加利表示，“你看到的是，消费者开始受到价格上涨的重大影响”。</blockquote></p><p> Business reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.</p><p><blockquote>企业重新开业、疫苗接种率上升和政府的流行病援助帮助推动了消费者支出的快速增长——经济的主要驱动力。但加利表示，调查显示，美国6月份通胀加速至13年来的新高，开始打击消费者对其继续支出能力的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Airlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> Petroleumlost 4.1%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a> 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group2.3% and $Delta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>航空公司和石油天然气公司是收盘前表现最差的公司之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>石油损失4.1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲</a>3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空公司</a>集团2.3%和$Delta<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>线(DAL)$2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> One bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Five9是一个亮点，有消息称Zoom Video Communications计划收购这家基于云的客户服务软件提供商，该公司估值为147亿美元，该公司股价上涨8.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>股价在盘前交易中下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Worries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.</p><p><blockquote>对病毒经济影响的担忧在全球市场的广泛回落中显而易见。欧洲斯托克600指数下跌1.9%，对经济敏感的旅游、休闲和大宗商品公司的股价领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Potential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.</p><p><blockquote>长期大流行的潜在受益者包括食品配送公司HelloFresh、Deliveroo和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>Eat Takeaway.com走高。</blockquote></p><p> Among other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a> Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> said it would take a large stake in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a>, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.</p><p><blockquote>其他股票中，巴黎上市公司Vivendi下跌1.2%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>由对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)领导的空白支票公司Tontine表示，已放弃购买10%股份的计划<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>音乐团体。阿克曼先生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>表示将持有大量股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>相反，维旺迪拥有多数股权。</blockquote></p><p> Italian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York.</p><p><blockquote>意大利奢侈时装公司Ermenegildo Zegna将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>作为与特殊目的收购公司Investindustrial Acquisition合作协议的一部分，今年晚些时候在证券交易所上市。SPAC的董事长是瑞银前首席执行官塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂(Sergio Ermotti)，其股价在盘前小幅下跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>:&nbsp;</b>Billionaire investor William Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a> has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>: </b>亿万富翁投资者威廉·阿克曼的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>放弃了收购维旺迪环球音乐集团(UMG)10%股份的交易，该公司是泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)等音乐家的大本营。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> :&nbsp;</b>On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>: </b>据路透社报道，周六，Elon Musk旗下的特斯拉公司推出了其驾驶员辅助软件包的全自动驾驶(FSD)订阅，每月价格为199美元。特斯拉提供全自动驾驶套件<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-10,000美元的定期付款。对于那些之前购买了增强型Autopilot套件的人来说，FSD功能每月的费用为99美元。据特斯拉称，车主可以随时取消每月的FSD订阅。特斯拉盘前交易中下跌2.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2886cd35d2ac9d0ed7cf4d9056c678a\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>:&nbsp;</b>Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>: </b>小鹏汽车P5轿车起价为2.47万美元，低于特斯拉，电动汽车制造商报告称，随着开始接受预订，需求很高。小鹏汽车在盘前交易中下跌2.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc962c414c77edbe87597c447261cac\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a>: </b>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&amp;J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>：</b>强生公司（JNJ。据七位知情人士透露，N）正在探索一项计划，将广泛的婴儿爽身粉诉讼的责任转移到一家新成立的企业中，然后该企业将寻求破产保护。强生面临数万名原告的法律诉讼指控其婴儿爽身粉和其他滑石粉产品含有石棉并导致癌症。原告包括患有卵巢癌的女性和其他与间皮瘤作斗争的女性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea35138cf94432dfdcd08c1528620d42\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In Asia, technology giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>腾讯控股令香港恒生指数承压，截至收盘，香港股市已下跌1.8%。这些损失是在拜登政府周五警告之后发生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>公司担心在金融中心运营的风险不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经225指数下跌1.3%。越来越多参加东京奥运会的运动员和工作人员检测呈阳性，而印度尼西亚的病例也在激增。澳大利亚人口最多的城市悉尼因三角洲疫情而处于封锁状态。</blockquote></p><p> David Chao, a market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a>, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.</p><p><blockquote>David Chao，市场策略师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>表示，德尔塔变异毒株在亚洲的蔓延，加上疫苗接种率低以及对额外社交距离措施的预期，“让许多期待该地区经济反弹的投资者失去了动力”。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.</p><p><blockquote>赵先生表示，他预计投资者将继续将资金从亚洲股市撤出，转向美国和英国等接种率高的发达市场的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust &amp; Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>尽管病毒病例增幅居全球之首，但英国取消了英格兰剩余的病毒限制措施，英镑跌至三个月低点，富时100指数下跌1.9%，这表明各国在全面重新开放经济方面面临挑战。在州政府收紧并延长封锁措施以遏制最新疫情后，澳元跌至七个月低点。日元兑所有10国集团货币走强。投资者正在寻求货币期权的保护；存管信托与清算公司的数据显示，交易量总体上比近期平均水平高出10%，对澳元和人民币敞口的需求几乎是平均水平的两倍，而英镑几乎是平均水平的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil extended losses, </b>with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油扩大损失，</b>在昨天的OPEC+协议之后，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，许多人认为这是看涨的，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</blockquote></p><p> Gold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>被视为避险资产的黄金也下跌至略高于1,800美元。周日，石油输出国组织及其盟友达成协议，允许每月增加40万桶/日的供应量，使该组织重新控制原油市场。欧佩克+达成协议后，亚洲炼油商观望等待降价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-19 19:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.</li>  <li>Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.</li>  <li>Oil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;19)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货早盘抛售加速。</li><li>潘兴广场Tontine Holdings、特斯拉汽车、小鹏汽车在盘前交易中涨幅最大。</li><li>石油扩大跌幅，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，此前昨天的欧佩克+协议被许多人视为看涨，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</li></ul>（七月十九日）美国。由于担心德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株蔓延将拖累全球经济，股票期货、油价和政府债券收益率下滑。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>-100 fell 0.89%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:09，标普500期货下跌1.11%，标志着股市大盘在周五连续三周上涨后开盘下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数合约下跌1.35%。以技术为中心的未来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>-100跌0.89%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78212dd3d7e6d2af95d4495fa43cf583\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Surging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.</p><p><blockquote>世界许多地区的冠状病毒病例激增，包括英国等疫苗接种率高的国家，促使投资者降低了对未来几个月经济增长的预期。一些人还担心，物价大幅上涨将抑制消费，并促使央行撤回刺激措施，从而创造一个增长放缓、通胀上升的环境，股市往往会陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> “What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>北欧资产管理公司高级宏观策略师塞巴斯蒂安·加利表示，“你看到的是，消费者开始受到价格上涨的重大影响”。</blockquote></p><p> Business reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.</p><p><blockquote>企业重新开业、疫苗接种率上升和政府的流行病援助帮助推动了消费者支出的快速增长——经济的主要驱动力。但加利表示，调查显示，美国6月份通胀加速至13年来的新高，开始打击消费者对其继续支出能力的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Airlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> Petroleumlost 4.1%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a> 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group2.3% and $Delta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>航空公司和石油天然气公司是收盘前表现最差的公司之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>石油损失4.1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲</a>3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空公司</a>集团2.3%和$Delta<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>线(DAL)$2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> One bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Five9是一个亮点，有消息称Zoom Video Communications计划收购这家基于云的客户服务软件提供商，该公司估值为147亿美元，该公司股价上涨8.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>股价在盘前交易中下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Worries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.</p><p><blockquote>对病毒经济影响的担忧在全球市场的广泛回落中显而易见。欧洲斯托克600指数下跌1.9%，对经济敏感的旅游、休闲和大宗商品公司的股价领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Potential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.</p><p><blockquote>长期大流行的潜在受益者包括食品配送公司HelloFresh、Deliveroo和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>Eat Takeaway.com走高。</blockquote></p><p> Among other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a> Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> said it would take a large stake in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a>, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.</p><p><blockquote>其他股票中，巴黎上市公司Vivendi下跌1.2%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>由对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)领导的空白支票公司Tontine表示，已放弃购买10%股份的计划<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>音乐团体。阿克曼先生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>表示将持有大量股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>相反，维旺迪拥有多数股权。</blockquote></p><p> Italian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York.</p><p><blockquote>意大利奢侈时装公司Ermenegildo Zegna将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>作为与特殊目的收购公司Investindustrial Acquisition合作协议的一部分，今年晚些时候在证券交易所上市。SPAC的董事长是瑞银前首席执行官塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂(Sergio Ermotti)，其股价在盘前小幅下跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>:&nbsp;</b>Billionaire investor William Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a> has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>: </b>亿万富翁投资者威廉·阿克曼的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>放弃了收购维旺迪环球音乐集团(UMG)10%股份的交易，该公司是泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)等音乐家的大本营。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> :&nbsp;</b>On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>: </b>据路透社报道，周六，Elon Musk旗下的特斯拉公司推出了其驾驶员辅助软件包的全自动驾驶(FSD)订阅，每月价格为199美元。特斯拉提供全自动驾驶套件<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-10,000美元的定期付款。对于那些之前购买了增强型Autopilot套件的人来说，FSD功能每月的费用为99美元。据特斯拉称，车主可以随时取消每月的FSD订阅。特斯拉盘前交易中下跌2.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2886cd35d2ac9d0ed7cf4d9056c678a\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>:&nbsp;</b>Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>: </b>小鹏汽车P5轿车起价为2.47万美元，低于特斯拉，电动汽车制造商报告称，随着开始接受预订，需求很高。小鹏汽车在盘前交易中下跌2.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc962c414c77edbe87597c447261cac\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a>: </b>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&amp;J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>：</b>强生公司（JNJ。据七位知情人士透露，N）正在探索一项计划，将广泛的婴儿爽身粉诉讼的责任转移到一家新成立的企业中，然后该企业将寻求破产保护。强生面临数万名原告的法律诉讼指控其婴儿爽身粉和其他滑石粉产品含有石棉并导致癌症。原告包括患有卵巢癌的女性和其他与间皮瘤作斗争的女性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea35138cf94432dfdcd08c1528620d42\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In Asia, technology giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>腾讯控股令香港恒生指数承压，截至收盘，香港股市已下跌1.8%。这些损失是在拜登政府周五警告之后发生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>公司担心在金融中心运营的风险不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经225指数下跌1.3%。越来越多参加东京奥运会的运动员和工作人员检测呈阳性，而印度尼西亚的病例也在激增。澳大利亚人口最多的城市悉尼因三角洲疫情而处于封锁状态。</blockquote></p><p> David Chao, a market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a>, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.</p><p><blockquote>David Chao，市场策略师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>表示，德尔塔变异毒株在亚洲的蔓延，加上疫苗接种率低以及对额外社交距离措施的预期，“让许多期待该地区经济反弹的投资者失去了动力”。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.</p><p><blockquote>赵先生表示，他预计投资者将继续将资金从亚洲股市撤出，转向美国和英国等接种率高的发达市场的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust &amp; Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>尽管病毒病例增幅居全球之首，但英国取消了英格兰剩余的病毒限制措施，英镑跌至三个月低点，富时100指数下跌1.9%，这表明各国在全面重新开放经济方面面临挑战。在州政府收紧并延长封锁措施以遏制最新疫情后，澳元跌至七个月低点。日元兑所有10国集团货币走强。投资者正在寻求货币期权的保护；存管信托与清算公司的数据显示，交易量总体上比近期平均水平高出10%，对澳元和人民币敞口的需求几乎是平均水平的两倍，而英镑几乎是平均水平的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil extended losses, </b>with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油扩大损失，</b>在昨天的OPEC+协议之后，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，许多人认为这是看涨的，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</blockquote></p><p> Gold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>被视为避险资产的黄金也下跌至略高于1,800美元。周日，石油输出国组织及其盟友达成协议，允许每月增加40万桶/日的供应量，使该组织重新控制原油市场。欧佩克+达成协议后，亚洲炼油商观望等待降价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135910714","content_text":"The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.\nOil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.\n\n(July 19) U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.\nAt 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused Nasdaq-100 fell 0.89%.\n\nSurging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.\n“What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.\nBusiness reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.\nAirlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in New York.Occidental Petroleumlost 4.1%, ConocoPhillips 3.6%,American Airlines Group2.3% and $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.\nOne bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. Zoom shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.\nWorries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.\nPotential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand Just Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.\nAmong other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. Pershing Square Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein Universal Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s Pershing Square said it would take a large stake in Universal, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.\nItalian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the New York Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in New York.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings: Billionaire investor William Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.\nTesla Motors : On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a one-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket trading.\n\nXPeng Inc.: Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket trading.\n\nJohnson & Johnson: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.\n\nIn Asia, technology giants Alibaba and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned American companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.\nJapan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.\nDavid Chao, a market strategist at Invesco, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.\nMr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.\nIn FX, the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.\nOil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.\nGold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152605338,"gmtCreate":1625285245624,"gmtModify":1633941738774,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152605338","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PATK":"Patrick Industries","NEM":"纽曼矿业","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","MED":"快验保","MOS":"美国美盛","ADNT":"Adient PLC","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","CRMT":"美国汽车行","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","LCII":"LCI Industries","RF":"地区金融","KBH":"KB Home","OGN":"Organon & Co"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRMT":0.9,"MED":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"GT":0.9,"LCII":0.9,"RF":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"ADS":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"ALK":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"SABR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152605996,"gmtCreate":1625285245615,"gmtModify":1633941738895,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152605996","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PATK":"Patrick Industries","NEM":"纽曼矿业","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","MED":"快验保","MOS":"美国美盛","ADNT":"Adient PLC","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","CRMT":"美国汽车行","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","LCII":"LCI Industries","RF":"地区金融","KBH":"KB Home","OGN":"Organon & Co"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRMT":0.9,"MED":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"GT":0.9,"LCII":0.9,"RF":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"ADS":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"ALK":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"SABR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159557414,"gmtCreate":1624975309638,"gmtModify":1633946313019,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159557414","repostId":"1179070037","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125717000,"gmtCreate":1624693656900,"gmtModify":1633949487041,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125717000","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122778033,"gmtCreate":1624634954922,"gmtModify":1633950224825,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122778033","repostId":"1100357819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":896008828,"gmtCreate":1628526104664,"gmtModify":1633746417833,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896008828","repostId":"1178202513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811935594,"gmtCreate":1630283006818,"gmtModify":1704957708386,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811935594","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177244943,"gmtCreate":1627228979282,"gmtModify":1633767023790,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177244943","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838849746,"gmtCreate":1629387023385,"gmtModify":1633685206365,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838849746","repostId":"2160760167","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897484969,"gmtCreate":1628959019151,"gmtModify":1633688296022,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oic&nbsp;","listText":"Oic&nbsp;","text":"Oic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897484969","repostId":"2159655218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171057739,"gmtCreate":1626698894721,"gmtModify":1633924856683,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171057739","repostId":"1135910714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135910714","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626692784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135910714?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 19:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135910714","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor","content":"<p><ul>  <li>The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.</li>  <li>Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.</li>  <li>Oil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;19)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货早盘抛售加速。</li><li>潘兴广场Tontine Holdings、特斯拉汽车、小鹏汽车在盘前交易中涨幅最大。</li><li>石油扩大跌幅，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，此前昨天的欧佩克+协议被许多人视为看涨，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</li></ul>（七月十九日）美国。由于担心德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株蔓延将拖累全球经济，股票期货、油价和政府债券收益率下滑。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>-100 fell 0.89%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:09，标普500期货下跌1.11%，标志着股市大盘在周五连续三周上涨后开盘下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数合约下跌1.35%。以技术为中心的未来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>-100跌0.89%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78212dd3d7e6d2af95d4495fa43cf583\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Surging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.</p><p><blockquote>世界许多地区的冠状病毒病例激增，包括英国等疫苗接种率高的国家，促使投资者降低了对未来几个月经济增长的预期。一些人还担心，物价大幅上涨将抑制消费，并促使央行撤回刺激措施，从而创造一个增长放缓、通胀上升的环境，股市往往会陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> “What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>北欧资产管理公司高级宏观策略师塞巴斯蒂安·加利表示，“你看到的是，消费者开始受到价格上涨的重大影响”。</blockquote></p><p> Business reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.</p><p><blockquote>企业重新开业、疫苗接种率上升和政府的流行病援助帮助推动了消费者支出的快速增长——经济的主要驱动力。但加利表示，调查显示，美国6月份通胀加速至13年来的新高，开始打击消费者对其继续支出能力的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Airlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> Petroleumlost 4.1%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a> 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group2.3% and $Delta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>航空公司和石油天然气公司是收盘前表现最差的公司之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>石油损失4.1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲</a>3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空公司</a>集团2.3%和$Delta<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>线(DAL)$2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> One bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Five9是一个亮点，有消息称Zoom Video Communications计划收购这家基于云的客户服务软件提供商，该公司估值为147亿美元，该公司股价上涨8.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>股价在盘前交易中下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Worries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.</p><p><blockquote>对病毒经济影响的担忧在全球市场的广泛回落中显而易见。欧洲斯托克600指数下跌1.9%，对经济敏感的旅游、休闲和大宗商品公司的股价领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Potential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.</p><p><blockquote>长期大流行的潜在受益者包括食品配送公司HelloFresh、Deliveroo和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>Eat Takeaway.com走高。</blockquote></p><p> Among other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a> Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> said it would take a large stake in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a>, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.</p><p><blockquote>其他股票中，巴黎上市公司Vivendi下跌1.2%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>由对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)领导的空白支票公司Tontine表示，已放弃购买10%股份的计划<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>音乐团体。阿克曼先生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>表示将持有大量股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>相反，维旺迪拥有多数股权。</blockquote></p><p> Italian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York.</p><p><blockquote>意大利奢侈时装公司Ermenegildo Zegna将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>作为与特殊目的收购公司Investindustrial Acquisition合作协议的一部分，今年晚些时候在证券交易所上市。SPAC的董事长是瑞银前首席执行官塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂(Sergio Ermotti)，其股价在盘前小幅下跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>:&nbsp;</b>Billionaire investor William Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a> has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>: </b>亿万富翁投资者威廉·阿克曼的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>放弃了收购维旺迪环球音乐集团(UMG)10%股份的交易，该公司是泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)等音乐家的大本营。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> :&nbsp;</b>On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>: </b>据路透社报道，周六，Elon Musk旗下的特斯拉公司推出了其驾驶员辅助软件包的全自动驾驶(FSD)订阅，每月价格为199美元。特斯拉提供全自动驾驶套件<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-10,000美元的定期付款。对于那些之前购买了增强型Autopilot套件的人来说，FSD功能每月的费用为99美元。据特斯拉称，车主可以随时取消每月的FSD订阅。特斯拉盘前交易中下跌2.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2886cd35d2ac9d0ed7cf4d9056c678a\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>:&nbsp;</b>Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>: </b>小鹏汽车P5轿车起价为2.47万美元，低于特斯拉，电动汽车制造商报告称，随着开始接受预订，需求很高。小鹏汽车在盘前交易中下跌2.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc962c414c77edbe87597c447261cac\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a>: </b>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&amp;J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>：</b>强生公司（JNJ。据七位知情人士透露，N）正在探索一项计划，将广泛的婴儿爽身粉诉讼的责任转移到一家新成立的企业中，然后该企业将寻求破产保护。强生面临数万名原告的法律诉讼指控其婴儿爽身粉和其他滑石粉产品含有石棉并导致癌症。原告包括患有卵巢癌的女性和其他与间皮瘤作斗争的女性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea35138cf94432dfdcd08c1528620d42\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In Asia, technology giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>腾讯控股令香港恒生指数承压，截至收盘，香港股市已下跌1.8%。这些损失是在拜登政府周五警告之后发生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>公司担心在金融中心运营的风险不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经225指数下跌1.3%。越来越多参加东京奥运会的运动员和工作人员检测呈阳性，而印度尼西亚的病例也在激增。澳大利亚人口最多的城市悉尼因三角洲疫情而处于封锁状态。</blockquote></p><p> David Chao, a market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a>, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.</p><p><blockquote>David Chao，市场策略师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>表示，德尔塔变异毒株在亚洲的蔓延，加上疫苗接种率低以及对额外社交距离措施的预期，“让许多期待该地区经济反弹的投资者失去了动力”。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.</p><p><blockquote>赵先生表示，他预计投资者将继续将资金从亚洲股市撤出，转向美国和英国等接种率高的发达市场的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust &amp; Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>尽管病毒病例增幅居全球之首，但英国取消了英格兰剩余的病毒限制措施，英镑跌至三个月低点，富时100指数下跌1.9%，这表明各国在全面重新开放经济方面面临挑战。在州政府收紧并延长封锁措施以遏制最新疫情后，澳元跌至七个月低点。日元兑所有10国集团货币走强。投资者正在寻求货币期权的保护；存管信托与清算公司的数据显示，交易量总体上比近期平均水平高出10%，对澳元和人民币敞口的需求几乎是平均水平的两倍，而英镑几乎是平均水平的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil extended losses, </b>with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油扩大损失，</b>在昨天的OPEC+协议之后，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，许多人认为这是看涨的，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</blockquote></p><p> Gold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>被视为避险资产的黄金也下跌至略高于1,800美元。周日，石油输出国组织及其盟友达成协议，允许每月增加40万桶/日的供应量，使该组织重新控制原油市场。欧佩克+达成协议后，亚洲炼油商观望等待降价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-19 19:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.</li>  <li>Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.</li>  <li>Oil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;19)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股指期货早盘抛售加速。</li><li>潘兴广场Tontine Holdings、特斯拉汽车、小鹏汽车在盘前交易中涨幅最大。</li><li>石油扩大跌幅，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，此前昨天的欧佩克+协议被许多人视为看涨，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</li></ul>（七月十九日）美国。由于担心德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株蔓延将拖累全球经济，股票期货、油价和政府债券收益率下滑。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&amp;P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a>-100 fell 0.89%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:09，标普500期货下跌1.11%，标志着股市大盘在周五连续三周上涨后开盘下跌。道琼斯工业平均指数合约下跌1.35%。以技术为中心的未来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>-100跌0.89%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78212dd3d7e6d2af95d4495fa43cf583\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Surging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.</p><p><blockquote>世界许多地区的冠状病毒病例激增，包括英国等疫苗接种率高的国家，促使投资者降低了对未来几个月经济增长的预期。一些人还担心，物价大幅上涨将抑制消费，并促使央行撤回刺激措施，从而创造一个增长放缓、通胀上升的环境，股市往往会陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> “What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>北欧资产管理公司高级宏观策略师塞巴斯蒂安·加利表示，“你看到的是，消费者开始受到价格上涨的重大影响”。</blockquote></p><p> Business reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.</p><p><blockquote>企业重新开业、疫苗接种率上升和政府的流行病援助帮助推动了消费者支出的快速增长——经济的主要驱动力。但加利表示，调查显示，美国6月份通胀加速至13年来的新高，开始打击消费者对其继续支出能力的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Airlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a> Petroleumlost 4.1%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a> 3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a> Group2.3% and $Delta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>航空公司和石油天然气公司是收盘前表现最差的公司之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a>石油损失4.1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">康菲</a>3.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空公司</a>集团2.3%和$Delta<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>线(DAL)$2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> One bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Five9是一个亮点，有消息称Zoom Video Communications计划收购这家基于云的客户服务软件提供商，该公司估值为147亿美元，该公司股价上涨8.3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>股价在盘前交易中下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Worries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.</p><p><blockquote>对病毒经济影响的担忧在全球市场的广泛回落中显而易见。欧洲斯托克600指数下跌1.9%，对经济敏感的旅游、休闲和大宗商品公司的股价领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Potential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.</p><p><blockquote>长期大流行的潜在受益者包括食品配送公司HelloFresh、Deliveroo和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>Eat Takeaway.com走高。</blockquote></p><p> Among other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a> Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">Pershing</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a> said it would take a large stake in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">Universal</a>, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.</p><p><blockquote>其他股票中，巴黎上市公司Vivendi下跌1.2%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>由对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)领导的空白支票公司Tontine表示，已放弃购买10%股份的计划<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>音乐团体。阿克曼先生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGLC\">潘兴</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a>表示将持有大量股份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVV\">普遍的</a>相反，维旺迪拥有多数股权。</blockquote></p><p> Italian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">New York</a> Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> York.</p><p><blockquote>意大利奢侈时装公司Ermenegildo Zegna将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYRT\">纽约</a>作为与特殊目的收购公司Investindustrial Acquisition合作协议的一部分，今年晚些时候在证券交易所上市。SPAC的董事长是瑞银前首席执行官塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂(Sergio Ermotti)，其股价在盘前小幅下跌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">新的</a>约克。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a>:&nbsp;</b>Billionaire investor William Ackman’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">Pershing Square Tontine Holdings</a> has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH.U\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>: </b>亿万富翁投资者威廉·阿克曼的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSTH\">潘兴广场通天控股</a>放弃了收购维旺迪环球音乐集团(UMG)10%股份的交易，该公司是泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)等音乐家的大本营。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> :&nbsp;</b>On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>: </b>据路透社报道，周六，Elon Musk旗下的特斯拉公司推出了其驾驶员辅助软件包的全自动驾驶(FSD)订阅，每月价格为199美元。特斯拉提供全自动驾驶套件<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-10,000美元的定期付款。对于那些之前购买了增强型Autopilot套件的人来说，FSD功能每月的费用为99美元。据特斯拉称，车主可以随时取消每月的FSD订阅。特斯拉盘前交易中下跌2.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2886cd35d2ac9d0ed7cf4d9056c678a\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>:&nbsp;</b>Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>: </b>小鹏汽车P5轿车起价为2.47万美元，低于特斯拉，电动汽车制造商报告称，随着开始接受预订，需求很高。小鹏汽车在盘前交易中下跌2.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc962c414c77edbe87597c447261cac\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a>: </b>Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&amp;J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>：</b>强生公司（JNJ。据七位知情人士透露，N）正在探索一项计划，将广泛的婴儿爽身粉诉讼的责任转移到一家新成立的企业中，然后该企业将寻求破产保护。强生面临数万名原告的法律诉讼指控其婴儿爽身粉和其他滑石粉产品含有石棉并导致癌症。原告包括患有卵巢癌的女性和其他与间皮瘤作斗争的女性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea35138cf94432dfdcd08c1528620d42\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In Asia, technology giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，科技巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>腾讯控股令香港恒生指数承压，截至收盘，香港股市已下跌1.8%。这些损失是在拜登政府周五警告之后发生的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>公司担心在金融中心运营的风险不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.</p><p><blockquote>日本日经225指数下跌1.3%。越来越多参加东京奥运会的运动员和工作人员检测呈阳性，而印度尼西亚的病例也在激增。澳大利亚人口最多的城市悉尼因三角洲疫情而处于封锁状态。</blockquote></p><p> David Chao, a market strategist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">Invesco</a>, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.</p><p><blockquote>David Chao，市场策略师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVZ\">景顺</a>表示，德尔塔变异毒株在亚洲的蔓延，加上疫苗接种率低以及对额外社交距离措施的预期，“让许多期待该地区经济反弹的投资者失去了动力”。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.</p><p><blockquote>赵先生表示，他预计投资者将继续将资金从亚洲股市撤出，转向美国和英国等接种率高的发达市场的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust &amp; Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>尽管病毒病例增幅居全球之首，但英国取消了英格兰剩余的病毒限制措施，英镑跌至三个月低点，富时100指数下跌1.9%，这表明各国在全面重新开放经济方面面临挑战。在州政府收紧并延长封锁措施以遏制最新疫情后，澳元跌至七个月低点。日元兑所有10国集团货币走强。投资者正在寻求货币期权的保护；存管信托与清算公司的数据显示，交易量总体上比近期平均水平高出10%，对澳元和人民币敞口的需求几乎是平均水平的两倍，而英镑几乎是平均水平的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil extended losses, </b>with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油扩大损失，</b>在昨天的OPEC+协议之后，WTI原油期货下跌3.8%，至70美元/桶以下，许多人认为这是看涨的，但CTA今天上午正在进行批发清算。</blockquote></p><p> Gold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.</p><p><blockquote>被视为避险资产的黄金也下跌至略高于1,800美元。周日，石油输出国组织及其盟友达成协议，允许每月增加40万桶/日的供应量，使该组织重新控制原油市场。欧佩克+达成协议后，亚洲炼油商观望等待降价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135910714","content_text":"The morning sell-off in stock futures is accelerating.\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings, Tesla Motor, XPeng Inc. made the biggest moves in premarket trading.\nOil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.\n\n(July 19) U.S. stock futures, oil prices and government bond yields slid, amid anxiety that the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant would hold back the global economy.\nAt 8:09 a.m. ET,Futures for the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, signaling opening losses for the broad stock-market gauge after itsnapped a three-week winning streak Friday. Contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.35%. Futures on the technology-focused Nasdaq-100 fell 0.89%.\n\nSurging cases of the coronavirusin many parts of the world, including highly-vaccinated countries such as the U.K., have prompted investors to dial down their expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Some also are concerned that a steep rise in prices will pinch consumption and prompt central banks to withdraw stimulus, creating an environment of lower growth and higher inflation in which stocks tend to struggle.\n“What you’re seeing is a sense that the consumer is starting to be affected quite significantly” by the jump in prices, said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.\nBusiness reopenings, rising vaccination rates and government pandemic aid have helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But surveys show that inflation, which accelerated to a 13-year high in the U.S. in June, is starting toknock consumers’ confidencein their ability to keep spending, Mr. Galy said.\nAirlines and oil-and-gas companies were among the worst performers ahead of the bell in New York.Occidental Petroleumlost 4.1%, ConocoPhillips 3.6%,American Airlines Group2.3% and $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ 2.2%.\nOne bright spot wasFive9,which jumped 8.3% on news thatZoom Video Communicationsplans to buy the provider of cloud-based customer-service software in a deal valuing the firm at $14.7 billion. Zoom shares slipped 2% in premarket trading.\nWorries about the economic effects of the virus were evident in a broad retreat in global markets. The regional Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1.9%, led lower by shares of economically sensitive travel, leisure and commodities companies.\nPotential beneficiaries of a prolonged pandemic including food-delivery companiesHelloFresh,Deliverooand Just Eat Takeaway.com ticked higher.\nAmong other stocks, Paris-listedVivendifell 1.2%. Pershing Square Tontine, a blank-check company led by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, said it had dropped plans topurchase a 10% stakein Universal Music Group. Mr. Ackman’s Pershing Square said it would take a large stake in Universal, which is majority owned by Vivendi, instead.\nItalian luxury fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna will go public on the New York Stock Exchange later this year as part of a tie-up agreement with special-purpose acquisition corporation Investindustrial Acquisition. Shares of the SPAC, whose chairman is former UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, edged down before the bell in New York.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nPershing Square Tontine Holdings: Billionaire investor William Ackman’s Pershing Square Tontine Holdings has dropped a deal to buy 10% of Vivendi’s Universal Music Group (UMG), the label that is home to musicians such as Taylor Swift.\nTesla Motors : On Saturday, Elon Musk's Tesla Inc launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription for its driver-assistance software package for $199 per month, Reuters reports. Tesla offered the Full Self-Driving package for a one-time payment of $10,000. The FSD feature would cost $99 a month for those who previously bought the Enhanced Autopilot package. According to Tesla, vehicle owners can cancel their monthly FSD subscription at any time. Tesla fell 2.28% in the premarket trading.\n\nXPeng Inc.: Xpeng Undercuts Tesla With P5 Sedan Priced Starting $24.7K, EV Maker Reports High Demand As It Begins Taking Pre-Order.Xpeng fell 2.13% in the premarket trading.\n\nJohnson & Johnson: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) is exploring a plan to offload liabilities from widespread Baby Powder litigation into a newly created business that would then seek bankruptcy protection, according to seven people familiar with the matter.J&J faces legal actions from tens of thousands of plaintiffs alleging its Baby Powder and other talc products contained asbestos and caused cancer. The plaintiffs include women suffering from ovarian cancer and others battling mesothelioma.\n\nIn Asia, technology giants Alibaba and Tencent weighed on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which had lost 1.8% by the close of trading. The losses came after the Biden administration on Friday warned American companies about the increasingrisks of operating in the financial hub.\nJapan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3%. More athletes and staff members attending theTokyo Olympics have tested positive, while cases are surging in Indonesia. Sydney, Australia’s most populous city, is under lockdown because of a delta outbreak.\nDavid Chao, a market strategist at Invesco, said the spread of the delta variant across Asia, coupled with low vaccination rates and expectations of additional social-distancing measures, has “taken wind out of the sail for many investors expecting an economic rebound” in the region.\nMr. Chao said he expected investors to continue to pull funds out of Asian stocks and shift them to shares in developed markets with high inoculation rates, such as the U.S. and U.K.\nIn FX, the pound slumped to a three-month low and the FTSE 100 tumbled 1.9% after the U.K. lifted remaining virus curbs in England even as virus cases increased the most in the world, signaling the challenge nations face to fully reopen their economies. Australia’s dollar dropped to a seven-month low after state governments tightened and extended lockdown measures to contain the latest outbreak. The yen strengthened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. Investors are seeking protection in currency options; data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation show that volumes are running 10% higher than recent averages overall, with demand for Aussie and yuan exposure running at almost double the averages while the pound is almost at triple.\nOil extended losses, with WTI crude futures tumbling 3.8% to below $70/barrel after yesterday's OPEC+ deal which many saw as bullish but not CTAs which this morning are engaged in wholesale liquidation.\nGold, a perceived safe haven asset, was also down sliding to just above $1,800. On Sunday OPEC and its allies struck a deal that allows for monthly supply hikes of 400k b/d, putting the group back in control of the crude market. Oil refiners in Asia stayed on the sidelines awaiting price cuts after the OPEC+ deal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152605996,"gmtCreate":1625285245615,"gmtModify":1633941738895,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152605996","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PATK":"Patrick Industries","NEM":"纽曼矿业","ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","SABR":"Sabre Corporation","MED":"快验保","MOS":"美国美盛","ADNT":"Adient PLC","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","CRMT":"美国汽车行","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","LCII":"LCI Industries","RF":"地区金融","KBH":"KB Home","OGN":"Organon & Co"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRMT":0.9,"MED":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"GT":0.9,"LCII":0.9,"RF":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"ADS":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"ALK":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"SABR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122747662,"gmtCreate":1624634819956,"gmtModify":1633950227280,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah","listText":"Wah","text":"Wah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122747662","repostId":"1116076888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116076888","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624612129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116076888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 17:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票被福特和通用汽车甩在身后</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116076888","media":"cnn","summary":"New York Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.Tesla  shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.It seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand thei","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&amp;P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）特斯拉2020年表现出色：这家电动汽车制造商被纳入标普500，股价飙升743%。但一些投资者最近退出了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)股价较今年早些时候创下的历史高点低近25%，2021年迄今已下跌2%——此时传统汽车制造商正在飙升，因为他们加大了电动汽车的雄心。</blockquote></p><p> Ford (F) stock is up nearly 75%, putting it in the top 10 of the S&amp;P 500 in 2021. The company unveiled its electric F-150 Lightning truck last month and also told investors that it now expects electric vehicles to account for 40% of global sales by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>福特(F)股价上涨近75%，跻身2021年标普500前十名。该公司上个月推出了电动F-150 Lightning卡车，还告诉投资者，目前预计到2030年电动汽车将占全球销量的40%。</blockquote></p><p> And GM (GM) is up more than 40% as well. The Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac maker said this month that it's looking to spend a whopping $35 billion on EVs by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车(GM)也上涨了40%以上。这家雪佛兰、别克和凯迪拉克制造商本月表示，计划到2025年在电动汽车上投入高达350亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand their electric car offerings to catch up with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对这些传统的三大汽车制造商有点迷恋，因为他们希望迅速扩大电动汽车产品以赶上特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still growing incredibly quickly. Analysts expect earnings per share to more than double this year and increase at an average rate of about 45% annually over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍在以令人难以置信的速度增长。分析师预计，今年每股收益将增长一倍以上，未来几年将以年均45%左右的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Tesla is one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉是华尔街最两极分化的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> According to Refinitiv, 14 analysts have the stock rated a \"buy,\" 13 a \"hold\" and 10 a \"sell.\" Contrast that with GM, which has 20 buy ratings, two holds and no sells.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，14名分析师将该股评级为“买入”，13名分析师评级为“持有”，10名分析师评级为“卖出”。相比之下，通用汽车有20个买入评级，2个持有评级，没有卖出评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skeptics have many questions about Tesla and Musk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怀疑论者对特斯拉和马斯克有很多疑问</b></blockquote></p><p> The consensus target price for Tesla stock from analysts is $652, about 6% lower than its current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对特斯拉股票的一致目标价为652美元，比当前价格低约6%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla critics have a pile of worries to point to. A notable short seller who was featured in \"The Big Short\" is betting against the company. Concerns about Tesla's management bench sprung up after longtime executive Jerome Guillen abruptly left earlier this month — especially since CEO Elon Musk is also busy running SpaceX.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的批评者有一大堆担忧要指出。《大空头》中的一位著名卖空者正在做空该公司。在长期高管Jerome Guillen本月早些时候突然离职后，人们对特斯拉管理层的担忧激增——特别是因为首席执行官Elon Musk也在忙于运营SpaceX。</blockquote></p><p> And Musk's obsession with bitcoin and dogecoin, along with other extracurricular activities like hosting Saturday Night Live and constantly tweeting, might be a turnoff for some investors and analysts.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克对比特币和狗狗币的痴迷，以及主持周六夜现场和不断发推文等其他课外活动，可能会让一些投资者和分析师感到厌烦。</blockquote></p><p> Still, there is no denying that the company has plenty of ardent fans, and its vehicles have grabbed plenty of positive headlines this week alone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，不可否认的是，该公司拥有大量热情的粉丝，其车辆仅在本周就占据了大量正面头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Cars.com (CARS) announced earlier this week that Tesla's Model 3 was ranked first in its American-Made Index, which measures how much a vehicle contributes to the US economy based on factors such as domestic factory jobs, manufacturing plants and parts sourcing.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Cars.com(CARS)本周早些时候宣布，特斯拉Model 3在其美国制造指数中排名第一，该指数根据国内工厂就业、制造工厂等因素衡量车辆对美国经济的贡献程度和零部件采购。</blockquote></p><p> The Model 3 edged out Ford's Mustang for the top spot, and Tesla's Model Y also ranked third on the list. Shares of Tesla rallied more than 5% Wednesday following the news.</p><p><blockquote>Model 3力压福特野马夺得榜首，特斯拉Model Y也位列榜单第三。消息传出后，特斯拉股价周三上涨超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock gained even more ground Thursday after Musk tweeted the night before that Tesla investors might get preferential treatment to buy shares of SpaceX-owned Starlink if SpaceX eventually decides to spin off the satellite internet service in a few years.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克前一天晚上在推特上表示，如果SpaceX最终决定在几年内剥离卫星互联网服务，特斯拉投资者可能会获得购买SpaceX旗下Starlink股票的优惠待遇，该股周四进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> So even though Tesla's stock is still in the red this year, shares have quickly clawed back much of their 2021 losses after a more than 12% surge in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管特斯拉的股价今年仍处于亏损状态，但在过去五天飙升超过12%后，该股已迅速收复了2021年的大部分跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is nothing if not volatile.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是不稳定的话，特斯拉什么都不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票被福特和通用汽车甩在身后</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla stock is getting left in Ford's and GM's dust<blockquote>为什么特斯拉股票被福特和通用汽车甩在身后</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 17:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&amp;P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）特斯拉2020年表现出色：这家电动汽车制造商被纳入标普500，股价飙升743%。但一些投资者最近退出了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)股价较今年早些时候创下的历史高点低近25%，2021年迄今已下跌2%——此时传统汽车制造商正在飙升，因为他们加大了电动汽车的雄心。</blockquote></p><p> Ford (F) stock is up nearly 75%, putting it in the top 10 of the S&amp;P 500 in 2021. The company unveiled its electric F-150 Lightning truck last month and also told investors that it now expects electric vehicles to account for 40% of global sales by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>福特(F)股价上涨近75%，跻身2021年标普500前十名。该公司上个月推出了电动F-150 Lightning卡车，还告诉投资者，目前预计到2030年电动汽车将占全球销量的40%。</blockquote></p><p> And GM (GM) is up more than 40% as well. The Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac maker said this month that it's looking to spend a whopping $35 billion on EVs by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车(GM)也上涨了40%以上。这家雪佛兰、别克和凯迪拉克制造商本月表示，计划到2025年在电动汽车上投入高达350亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand their electric car offerings to catch up with Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对这些传统的三大汽车制造商有点迷恋，因为他们希望迅速扩大电动汽车产品以赶上特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is still growing incredibly quickly. Analysts expect earnings per share to more than double this year and increase at an average rate of about 45% annually over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍在以令人难以置信的速度增长。分析师预计，今年每股收益将增长一倍以上，未来几年将以年均45%左右的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Tesla is one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉是华尔街最两极分化的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> According to Refinitiv, 14 analysts have the stock rated a \"buy,\" 13 a \"hold\" and 10 a \"sell.\" Contrast that with GM, which has 20 buy ratings, two holds and no sells.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，14名分析师将该股评级为“买入”，13名分析师评级为“持有”，10名分析师评级为“卖出”。相比之下，通用汽车有20个买入评级，2个持有评级，没有卖出评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Skeptics have many questions about Tesla and Musk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怀疑论者对特斯拉和马斯克有很多疑问</b></blockquote></p><p> The consensus target price for Tesla stock from analysts is $652, about 6% lower than its current price.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对特斯拉股票的一致目标价为652美元，比当前价格低约6%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla critics have a pile of worries to point to. A notable short seller who was featured in \"The Big Short\" is betting against the company. Concerns about Tesla's management bench sprung up after longtime executive Jerome Guillen abruptly left earlier this month — especially since CEO Elon Musk is also busy running SpaceX.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的批评者有一大堆担忧要指出。《大空头》中的一位著名卖空者正在做空该公司。在长期高管Jerome Guillen本月早些时候突然离职后，人们对特斯拉管理层的担忧激增——特别是因为首席执行官Elon Musk也在忙于运营SpaceX。</blockquote></p><p> And Musk's obsession with bitcoin and dogecoin, along with other extracurricular activities like hosting Saturday Night Live and constantly tweeting, might be a turnoff for some investors and analysts.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克对比特币和狗狗币的痴迷，以及主持周六夜现场和不断发推文等其他课外活动，可能会让一些投资者和分析师感到厌烦。</blockquote></p><p> Still, there is no denying that the company has plenty of ardent fans, and its vehicles have grabbed plenty of positive headlines this week alone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，不可否认的是，该公司拥有大量热情的粉丝，其车辆仅在本周就占据了大量正面头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Cars.com (CARS) announced earlier this week that Tesla's Model 3 was ranked first in its American-Made Index, which measures how much a vehicle contributes to the US economy based on factors such as domestic factory jobs, manufacturing plants and parts sourcing.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Cars.com(CARS)本周早些时候宣布，特斯拉Model 3在其美国制造指数中排名第一，该指数根据国内工厂就业、制造工厂等因素衡量车辆对美国经济的贡献程度和零部件采购。</blockquote></p><p> The Model 3 edged out Ford's Mustang for the top spot, and Tesla's Model Y also ranked third on the list. Shares of Tesla rallied more than 5% Wednesday following the news.</p><p><blockquote>Model 3力压福特野马夺得榜首，特斯拉Model Y也位列榜单第三。消息传出后，特斯拉股价周三上涨超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock gained even more ground Thursday after Musk tweeted the night before that Tesla investors might get preferential treatment to buy shares of SpaceX-owned Starlink if SpaceX eventually decides to spin off the satellite internet service in a few years.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克前一天晚上在推特上表示，如果SpaceX最终决定在几年内剥离卫星互联网服务，特斯拉投资者可能会获得购买SpaceX旗下Starlink股票的优惠待遇，该股周四进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> So even though Tesla's stock is still in the red this year, shares have quickly clawed back much of their 2021 losses after a more than 12% surge in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管特斯拉的股价今年仍处于亏损状态，但在过去五天飙升超过12%后，该股已迅速收复了2021年的大部分跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is nothing if not volatile.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是不稳定的话，特斯拉什么都不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/24/investing/tesla-stock-ford-gm/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/24/investing/tesla-stock-ford-gm/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116076888","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Tesla had a stellar 2020: The electric car maker was added to the S&P 500 and the stock surged an electrifying 743%. But some investors have pulled the plug on the company lately.\nTesla (TSLA) shares are nearly 25% below their all-time high set earlier in the year, and down 2% for 2021 to date -— a time when traditional automakers are surging as they ramp up electric vehicle ambitions.\nFord (F) stock is up nearly 75%, putting it in the top 10 of the S&P 500 in 2021. The company unveiled its electric F-150 Lightning truck last month and also told investors that it now expects electric vehicles to account for 40% of global sales by 2030.\nAnd GM (GM) is up more than 40% as well. The Chevrolet, Buick and Cadillac maker said this month that it's looking to spend a whopping $35 billion on EVs by 2025.\nIt seems investors are a bit infatuated with these legacy Big 3 automakers as they look to rapidly expand their electric car offerings to catch up with Tesla.\nTesla is still growing incredibly quickly. Analysts expect earnings per share to more than double this year and increase at an average rate of about 45% annually over the next few years.\nYet Tesla is one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street.\nAccording to Refinitiv, 14 analysts have the stock rated a \"buy,\" 13 a \"hold\" and 10 a \"sell.\" Contrast that with GM, which has 20 buy ratings, two holds and no sells.\nSkeptics have many questions about Tesla and Musk\nThe consensus target price for Tesla stock from analysts is $652, about 6% lower than its current price.\nTesla critics have a pile of worries to point to. A notable short seller who was featured in \"The Big Short\" is betting against the company. Concerns about Tesla's management bench sprung up after longtime executive Jerome Guillen abruptly left earlier this month — especially since CEO Elon Musk is also busy running SpaceX.\nAnd Musk's obsession with bitcoin and dogecoin, along with other extracurricular activities like hosting Saturday Night Live and constantly tweeting, might be a turnoff for some investors and analysts.\nStill, there is no denying that the company has plenty of ardent fans, and its vehicles have grabbed plenty of positive headlines this week alone.\nFor example, Cars.com (CARS) announced earlier this week that Tesla's Model 3 was ranked first in its American-Made Index, which measures how much a vehicle contributes to the US economy based on factors such as domestic factory jobs, manufacturing plants and parts sourcing.\nThe Model 3 edged out Ford's Mustang for the top spot, and Tesla's Model Y also ranked third on the list. Shares of Tesla rallied more than 5% Wednesday following the news.\nThe stock gained even more ground Thursday after Musk tweeted the night before that Tesla investors might get preferential treatment to buy shares of SpaceX-owned Starlink if SpaceX eventually decides to spin off the satellite internet service in a few years.\nSo even though Tesla's stock is still in the red this year, shares have quickly clawed back much of their 2021 losses after a more than 12% surge in the past five days.\nTesla is nothing if not volatile.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815942878,"gmtCreate":1630638742994,"gmtModify":1632468897710,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ooh","listText":"Ooh","text":"Ooh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815942878","repostId":"1194913620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194913620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630637588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194913620?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 10:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FDA Weighing Dose of Moderna Covid-19 Booster<blockquote>FDA称重Moderna Covid-19加强剂的剂量</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194913620","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.\n\n","content":"<p>  <b>Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.</b>  The Food and Drug Administration is considering whether to authorize a lower dose ofModernaInc.’sCovid-19 vaccine for boostersthan the dose given in the first two shots, people familiar with the deliberations said.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗制造商已要求机构授权前两次注射一半剂量的加强剂。</b>知情人士称，美国食品和药物管理局正在考虑是否批准ModernaInc.的新冠肺炎疫苗加强剂剂量低于前两次注射的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna said Wednesday it is asking the FDA to authorize a 50 microgram dose, half the dosage of the first two shots. Some in the government are leaning toward authorizing the 100 microgram dose, the people said, because of concerns a lower-dose booster might not offer a durable enough boost to counterfast-changing variants of Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna周三表示，正在要求FDA批准50微克的剂量，是前两次注射剂量的一半。知情人士说，政府中的一些人倾向于授权100微克的剂量，因为担心较低剂量的加强剂可能无法提供足够持久的加强来对抗快速变化的新冠肺炎变种。</blockquote></p><p> No final decision has been made, the people said, as the FDA is still reviewing data from studies that tested boosters using the different doses. People who have seen the data said both doses produce a strong immune response.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，尚未做出最终决定，因为FDA仍在审查使用不同剂量测试加强剂的研究数据。看过数据的人表示，两种剂量都会产生强烈的免疫反应。</blockquote></p><p> Complicating the decision is the fact that the FDA has limited comparative data on which to base their choice, one person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士表示，FDA做出选择所依据的比较数据有限，这一决定变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The continuing deliberations are a reason the agency hasn’t yet authorized boosters, though the people expect a decision soon.</p><p><blockquote>持续的审议是该机构尚未授权助推器的一个原因，尽管人们预计很快就会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> One possible benefit of a lower dose is fewer side effects, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，较低剂量的一个可能好处是副作用更少。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, the Biden administration recommended that adults who got a messenger RNA vaccine from either Moderna orPfizerInc.and partnerBioNTech SEstartgetting boosters this month.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，拜登政府建议从Moderna或辉瑞公司及其合作伙伴BioNTech接种信使RNA疫苗的成年人本月开始接种加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson &amp; Johnson’svaccine is also expected to be included in the boosting strategy,after releasing the first resultsabout its boosters last month. The company said it is engaging with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的疫苗在上个月发布了第一批加强剂结果后，预计也将被纳入加强策略。该公司表示正在与FDA合作。</blockquote></p><p> There is no debate about the booster doses to administer for the Pfizer-BioNTech or J&amp;J vaccines, one of the people said, though a decision on the J&amp;J booster might take longer. Their boosters will be the same doses as the first shots, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，关于辉瑞-BioNTech或强生疫苗的加强剂量没有争议，尽管强生加强剂量的决定可能需要更长时间。该人士说，他们的加强剂量将与第一针相同。</blockquote></p><p> After initially spurning talk about boosters, federal health officials embraced the idea as the contagious Delta variant drove up case counts, even among some peoplewho were vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>在最初拒绝有关加强剂的讨论后，联邦卫生官员接受了这一想法，因为传染性德尔塔变异毒株导致病例数上升，甚至在一些接种疫苗的人中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Also contributing to the change of mind was emerging but inconclusive evidence, from researchers in Israel and elsewhere, suggesting the molecular defenses triggered by vaccinationwanes after several months.</p><p><blockquote>来自以色列和其他地方的研究人员的新证据表明，接种疫苗引发的分子防御在几个月后减弱，这也有助于人们改变想法。</blockquote></p><p> Whether boosters are needed remains up for debate. Some researchers say the evidence is insufficient, while the World Health Organization has urged giving shots to peoplein countries with limited supplies.</p><p><blockquote>是否需要助推器仍有争议。一些研究人员表示，证据不足，而世界卫生组织敦促为供应有限的国家的人们注射疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna and the National Institutes of Health tested both 50 mcg and 100 mcg booster doses in clinical trials.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna和美国国立卫生研究院在临床试验中测试了50微克和100微克的加强剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Modernareleased initial datashowing that a 50 mcg booster strengthened antibodies against Delta and other variants of concern significantly higher than the levels after trial subjects received their two initial doses.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，ModernA发布的初步数据显示，50 mcg加强剂增强了针对Delta和其他令人担忧的变体的抗体，明显高于试验受试者接受两次初始剂量后的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Cambridge, Mass., company has been urging the FDA in recent weeks to authorize a 50 mcg booster, according to people familiar with the matter and a statement announcing its submission on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>马萨诸塞州剑桥。据知情人士和周三宣布提交的一份声明称，该公司最近几周一直在敦促FDA授权一种50微克的加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> The company declined to answer questions early this week about its talks with the FDA, before issuing a statement, saying it had applied for the booster dose authorization at the 50 mcg level.</p><p><blockquote>该公司本周早些时候拒绝回答有关其与FDA谈判的问题，然后发表声明称，它已申请50微克水平的加强剂量授权。</blockquote></p><p> Authorization of a lower dose would allow Moderna to manufacture up to three billion boosters next year, as many as one billion more than it could make of the higher dose.</p><p><blockquote>较低剂量的授权将使Moderna明年能够生产多达30亿个加强剂，比较高剂量的多出多达10亿个。</blockquote></p><p> Yet it would pose several logistical challenges, another person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一位知情人士表示，这将带来一些后勤挑战。</blockquote></p><p> The different dosages may cause confusion at vaccination sites, the people said. Pharmacists would have to prepare the doses in different ways. Nurses would have to be careful to give people the right dose.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，不同的剂量可能会在疫苗接种点造成混乱。药剂师将不得不以不同的方式准备剂量。护士必须小心给人们正确的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue, the person said, is a lower dose would lead to some wasted vaccine, at least until new, smaller vials begin arriving in October.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，另一个问题是，较低的剂量会导致一些疫苗被浪费，至少在10月份新的、更小的疫苗瓶开始到达之前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Current Moderna vials contain enough vaccine for 14 100 mcg doses, but not all of that could be used for smaller doses because the vials can only be entered a certain number of times.</p><p><blockquote>目前的Moderna小瓶包含足够14 100 mcg剂量的疫苗，但并非所有这些都可以用于较小剂量，因为小瓶只能进入一定次数。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. has ordered smaller vials already because they are easier for doctors’ offices and other providers to administer, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，美国已经订购了较小的小瓶，因为它们更容易被医生办公室和其他供应商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It couldn’t be determined why people getting a Moderna booster might need a lower dose than people getting another manufacturer’s vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>无法确定为什么接种Moderna加强剂的人可能比接种另一家制造商疫苗的人需要更低的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Astudy of Belgian healthcare workerspublished Monday in a letter to the Journal of American Medical Association found that Moderna’s vaccine created twice as many antibodies as the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>周一在致《美国医学会杂志》的一封信中发表的一项针对比利时医护人员的研究发现，Moderna的疫苗产生的抗体是辉瑞BioNTech疫苗的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers said the difference might be explained by the higher mRNA content in Moderna’s vaccine as compared with Pfizer-BioNTech’s, as well as the week longer interval between shots for the Moderna vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员表示，与辉瑞-BioNTech的疫苗相比，Moderna疫苗的mRNA含量更高，以及Moderna疫苗的注射间隔更长一周。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. health officials are still figuring out the timing of exactly when people will be eligible to receive boosters.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生官员仍在计算人们何时有资格接受加强剂的确切时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Federal health officials initially said it would be eight months after people have received two doses. The Wall Street Journal has reported the FDA is likelyto authorize boosters at six months.</p><p><blockquote>联邦卫生官员最初表示，人们接种两剂疫苗需要八个月后。《华尔街日报》报道称，FDA可能会在六个月后批准加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden said last week that his administration is weighing whether to begin before eight months, perhaps as early as five months.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统上周表示，他的政府正在权衡是否在八个月前开始，也许最早五个月。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA Weighing Dose of Moderna Covid-19 Booster<blockquote>FDA称重Moderna Covid-19加强剂的剂量</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA Weighing Dose of Moderna Covid-19 Booster<blockquote>FDA称重Moderna Covid-19加强剂的剂量</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 10:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.</b>  The Food and Drug Administration is considering whether to authorize a lower dose ofModernaInc.’sCovid-19 vaccine for boostersthan the dose given in the first two shots, people familiar with the deliberations said.</p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗制造商已要求机构授权前两次注射一半剂量的加强剂。</b>知情人士称，美国食品和药物管理局正在考虑是否批准ModernaInc.的新冠肺炎疫苗加强剂剂量低于前两次注射的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna said Wednesday it is asking the FDA to authorize a 50 microgram dose, half the dosage of the first two shots. Some in the government are leaning toward authorizing the 100 microgram dose, the people said, because of concerns a lower-dose booster might not offer a durable enough boost to counterfast-changing variants of Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna周三表示，正在要求FDA批准50微克的剂量，是前两次注射剂量的一半。知情人士说，政府中的一些人倾向于授权100微克的剂量，因为担心较低剂量的加强剂可能无法提供足够持久的加强来对抗快速变化的新冠肺炎变种。</blockquote></p><p> No final decision has been made, the people said, as the FDA is still reviewing data from studies that tested boosters using the different doses. People who have seen the data said both doses produce a strong immune response.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，尚未做出最终决定，因为FDA仍在审查使用不同剂量测试加强剂的研究数据。看过数据的人表示，两种剂量都会产生强烈的免疫反应。</blockquote></p><p> Complicating the decision is the fact that the FDA has limited comparative data on which to base their choice, one person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士表示，FDA做出选择所依据的比较数据有限，这一决定变得更加复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The continuing deliberations are a reason the agency hasn’t yet authorized boosters, though the people expect a decision soon.</p><p><blockquote>持续的审议是该机构尚未授权助推器的一个原因，尽管人们预计很快就会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> One possible benefit of a lower dose is fewer side effects, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，较低剂量的一个可能好处是副作用更少。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, the Biden administration recommended that adults who got a messenger RNA vaccine from either Moderna orPfizerInc.and partnerBioNTech SEstartgetting boosters this month.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，拜登政府建议从Moderna或辉瑞公司及其合作伙伴BioNTech接种信使RNA疫苗的成年人本月开始接种加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson &amp; Johnson’svaccine is also expected to be included in the boosting strategy,after releasing the first resultsabout its boosters last month. The company said it is engaging with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的疫苗在上个月发布了第一批加强剂结果后，预计也将被纳入加强策略。该公司表示正在与FDA合作。</blockquote></p><p> There is no debate about the booster doses to administer for the Pfizer-BioNTech or J&amp;J vaccines, one of the people said, though a decision on the J&amp;J booster might take longer. Their boosters will be the same doses as the first shots, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，关于辉瑞-BioNTech或强生疫苗的加强剂量没有争议，尽管强生加强剂量的决定可能需要更长时间。该人士说，他们的加强剂量将与第一针相同。</blockquote></p><p> After initially spurning talk about boosters, federal health officials embraced the idea as the contagious Delta variant drove up case counts, even among some peoplewho were vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>在最初拒绝有关加强剂的讨论后，联邦卫生官员接受了这一想法，因为传染性德尔塔变异毒株导致病例数上升，甚至在一些接种疫苗的人中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Also contributing to the change of mind was emerging but inconclusive evidence, from researchers in Israel and elsewhere, suggesting the molecular defenses triggered by vaccinationwanes after several months.</p><p><blockquote>来自以色列和其他地方的研究人员的新证据表明，接种疫苗引发的分子防御在几个月后减弱，这也有助于人们改变想法。</blockquote></p><p> Whether boosters are needed remains up for debate. Some researchers say the evidence is insufficient, while the World Health Organization has urged giving shots to peoplein countries with limited supplies.</p><p><blockquote>是否需要助推器仍有争议。一些研究人员表示，证据不足，而世界卫生组织敦促为供应有限的国家的人们注射疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna and the National Institutes of Health tested both 50 mcg and 100 mcg booster doses in clinical trials.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna和美国国立卫生研究院在临床试验中测试了50微克和100微克的加强剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Modernareleased initial datashowing that a 50 mcg booster strengthened antibodies against Delta and other variants of concern significantly higher than the levels after trial subjects received their two initial doses.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，ModernA发布的初步数据显示，50 mcg加强剂增强了针对Delta和其他令人担忧的变体的抗体，明显高于试验受试者接受两次初始剂量后的水平。</blockquote></p><p> The Cambridge, Mass., company has been urging the FDA in recent weeks to authorize a 50 mcg booster, according to people familiar with the matter and a statement announcing its submission on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>马萨诸塞州剑桥。据知情人士和周三宣布提交的一份声明称，该公司最近几周一直在敦促FDA授权一种50微克的加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> The company declined to answer questions early this week about its talks with the FDA, before issuing a statement, saying it had applied for the booster dose authorization at the 50 mcg level.</p><p><blockquote>该公司本周早些时候拒绝回答有关其与FDA谈判的问题，然后发表声明称，它已申请50微克水平的加强剂量授权。</blockquote></p><p> Authorization of a lower dose would allow Moderna to manufacture up to three billion boosters next year, as many as one billion more than it could make of the higher dose.</p><p><blockquote>较低剂量的授权将使Moderna明年能够生产多达30亿个加强剂，比较高剂量的多出多达10亿个。</blockquote></p><p> Yet it would pose several logistical challenges, another person familiar with the discussions said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一位知情人士表示，这将带来一些后勤挑战。</blockquote></p><p> The different dosages may cause confusion at vaccination sites, the people said. Pharmacists would have to prepare the doses in different ways. Nurses would have to be careful to give people the right dose.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士说，不同的剂量可能会在疫苗接种点造成混乱。药剂师将不得不以不同的方式准备剂量。护士必须小心给人们正确的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue, the person said, is a lower dose would lead to some wasted vaccine, at least until new, smaller vials begin arriving in October.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，另一个问题是，较低的剂量会导致一些疫苗被浪费，至少在10月份新的、更小的疫苗瓶开始到达之前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Current Moderna vials contain enough vaccine for 14 100 mcg doses, but not all of that could be used for smaller doses because the vials can only be entered a certain number of times.</p><p><blockquote>目前的Moderna小瓶包含足够14 100 mcg剂量的疫苗，但并非所有这些都可以用于较小剂量，因为小瓶只能进入一定次数。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. has ordered smaller vials already because they are easier for doctors’ offices and other providers to administer, the person said.</p><p><blockquote>这位人士说，美国已经订购了较小的小瓶，因为它们更容易被医生办公室和其他供应商管理。</blockquote></p><p> It couldn’t be determined why people getting a Moderna booster might need a lower dose than people getting another manufacturer’s vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>无法确定为什么接种Moderna加强剂的人可能比接种另一家制造商疫苗的人需要更低的剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Astudy of Belgian healthcare workerspublished Monday in a letter to the Journal of American Medical Association found that Moderna’s vaccine created twice as many antibodies as the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>周一在致《美国医学会杂志》的一封信中发表的一项针对比利时医护人员的研究发现，Moderna的疫苗产生的抗体是辉瑞BioNTech疫苗的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The researchers said the difference might be explained by the higher mRNA content in Moderna’s vaccine as compared with Pfizer-BioNTech’s, as well as the week longer interval between shots for the Moderna vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员表示，与辉瑞-BioNTech的疫苗相比，Moderna疫苗的mRNA含量更高，以及Moderna疫苗的注射间隔更长一周。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. health officials are still figuring out the timing of exactly when people will be eligible to receive boosters.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生官员仍在计算人们何时有资格接受加强剂的确切时间。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Federal health officials initially said it would be eight months after people have received two doses. The Wall Street Journal has reported the FDA is likelyto authorize boosters at six months.</p><p><blockquote>联邦卫生官员最初表示，人们接种两剂疫苗需要八个月后。《华尔街日报》报道称，FDA可能会在六个月后批准加强剂。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden said last week that his administration is weighing whether to begin before eight months, perhaps as early as five months.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统上周表示，他的政府正在权衡是否在八个月前开始，也许最早五个月。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-weighing-dose-of-moderna-covid-19-booster-11630593980?mod=business_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-weighing-dose-of-moderna-covid-19-booster-11630593980?mod=business_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194913620","content_text":"Vaccine maker has asked agency to authorize booster at half the dose given in the first two shots.\n\nThe Food and Drug Administration is considering whether to authorize a lower dose ofModernaInc.’sCovid-19 vaccine for boostersthan the dose given in the first two shots, people familiar with the deliberations said.\nModerna said Wednesday it is asking the FDA to authorize a 50 microgram dose, half the dosage of the first two shots. Some in the government are leaning toward authorizing the 100 microgram dose, the people said, because of concerns a lower-dose booster might not offer a durable enough boost to counterfast-changing variants of Covid-19.\nNo final decision has been made, the people said, as the FDA is still reviewing data from studies that tested boosters using the different doses. People who have seen the data said both doses produce a strong immune response.\nComplicating the decision is the fact that the FDA has limited comparative data on which to base their choice, one person familiar with the discussions said.\nThe continuing deliberations are a reason the agency hasn’t yet authorized boosters, though the people expect a decision soon.\nOne possible benefit of a lower dose is fewer side effects, people familiar with the matter said.\nLast month, the Biden administration recommended that adults who got a messenger RNA vaccine from either Moderna orPfizerInc.and partnerBioNTech SEstartgetting boosters this month.\nJohnson & Johnson’svaccine is also expected to be included in the boosting strategy,after releasing the first resultsabout its boosters last month. The company said it is engaging with the FDA.\nThere is no debate about the booster doses to administer for the Pfizer-BioNTech or J&J vaccines, one of the people said, though a decision on the J&J booster might take longer. Their boosters will be the same doses as the first shots, the person said.\nAfter initially spurning talk about boosters, federal health officials embraced the idea as the contagious Delta variant drove up case counts, even among some peoplewho were vaccinated.\nAlso contributing to the change of mind was emerging but inconclusive evidence, from researchers in Israel and elsewhere, suggesting the molecular defenses triggered by vaccinationwanes after several months.\nWhether boosters are needed remains up for debate. Some researchers say the evidence is insufficient, while the World Health Organization has urged giving shots to peoplein countries with limited supplies.\nModerna and the National Institutes of Health tested both 50 mcg and 100 mcg booster doses in clinical trials.\nLast month, Modernareleased initial datashowing that a 50 mcg booster strengthened antibodies against Delta and other variants of concern significantly higher than the levels after trial subjects received their two initial doses.\nThe Cambridge, Mass., company has been urging the FDA in recent weeks to authorize a 50 mcg booster, according to people familiar with the matter and a statement announcing its submission on Wednesday.\nThe company declined to answer questions early this week about its talks with the FDA, before issuing a statement, saying it had applied for the booster dose authorization at the 50 mcg level.\nAuthorization of a lower dose would allow Moderna to manufacture up to three billion boosters next year, as many as one billion more than it could make of the higher dose.\nYet it would pose several logistical challenges, another person familiar with the discussions said.\nThe different dosages may cause confusion at vaccination sites, the people said. Pharmacists would have to prepare the doses in different ways. Nurses would have to be careful to give people the right dose.\nAnother issue, the person said, is a lower dose would lead to some wasted vaccine, at least until new, smaller vials begin arriving in October.\nCurrent Moderna vials contain enough vaccine for 14 100 mcg doses, but not all of that could be used for smaller doses because the vials can only be entered a certain number of times.\nThe U.S. has ordered smaller vials already because they are easier for doctors’ offices and other providers to administer, the person said.\nIt couldn’t be determined why people getting a Moderna booster might need a lower dose than people getting another manufacturer’s vaccine.\nAstudy of Belgian healthcare workerspublished Monday in a letter to the Journal of American Medical Association found that Moderna’s vaccine created twice as many antibodies as the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.\nThe researchers said the difference might be explained by the higher mRNA content in Moderna’s vaccine as compared with Pfizer-BioNTech’s, as well as the week longer interval between shots for the Moderna vaccine.\nU.S. health officials are still figuring out the timing of exactly when people will be eligible to receive boosters.\nFederal health officials initially said it would be eight months after people have received two doses. The Wall Street Journal has reported the FDA is likelyto authorize boosters at six months.\nPresident Biden said last week that his administration is weighing whether to begin before eight months, perhaps as early as five months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895936106,"gmtCreate":1628701501105,"gmtModify":1633744993283,"author":{"id":"3587016176616322","authorId":"3587016176616322","name":"MeiQi777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d76fd3635101c0c19ef37428f4082b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587016176616322","authorIdStr":"3587016176616322"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895936106","repostId":"1197984437","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197984437","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628695457,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197984437?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin ETF Filing Flood Collides With Cooling Demand for Funds<blockquote>比特币ETF备案潮与资金需求降温相冲突</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197984437","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of op","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of optimism among Bitcoin exchange-traded fund advocates this month -- but it’s unclear whether investors share that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler本月在比特币交易所交易基金倡导者中点燃了新一波乐观情绪，但尚不清楚投资者是否也有这种热情。</blockquote></p><p> Digital-asset investment products from Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares and others saw outflows for the fifth straight week, the longest such streak since January 2018, according to data compiled by CoinShares. The outflows total roughly $93 million over that stretch. Much of it is thanks to money being yanked away from Bitcoin products, according to the digital-asset manager.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinShares汇编的数据，Grayscale、Bitwise、21Shares和其他公司的数字资产投资产品连续第五周出现资金外流，这是自2018年1月以来最长的连续流出。在此期间，资金外流总额约为9300万美元。这位数字资产管理公司表示，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币产品的资金被抽走。</blockquote></p><p> The cooling appetite stands in contrast to the growing pile of cryptocurrency ETF filings, with at least 18 applications landing with the SEC this year. That tally grew by three in the past two weeks after Gensler signaled that regulators may be more open to a Bitcoin ETF if it was based around futures rather than the cryptocurrency itself. However, even if the SEC finally green-lights the fund structure, it’s not a sure bet that a Bitcoin ETF would be met with huge demand, according to Meltem Demirors of Coinshares.</p><p><blockquote>这种降温的兴趣与越来越多的加密货币ETF申请形成鲜明对比，今年至少有18份申请提交给了SEC。Gensler表示，如果比特币ETF基于期货而不是加密货币本身，监管机构可能会对其更加开放，这一数字在过去两周内增加了三个。然而，Coinshares的Meltem Demirors表示，即使SEC最终批准了该基金结构，也不能肯定比特币ETF会满足巨大的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s so many venues for people to buy and sell Bitcoin, to get exposure to Bitcoin in tax-managed accounts,” said Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares. “We’re not really sure what the demand will look like because is the maturation of crypto in the U.S. is already quite high.”</p><p><blockquote>CoinShares首席战略官Demirors表示：“人们有很多地方可以买卖比特币，通过税务管理账户接触比特币。”“我们并不真正确定需求会是什么样子，因为美国加密货币的成熟度已经相当高。”</blockquote></p><p> After setting an all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April, Bitcoin resumed its volatile price swings. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped below $30,000 in June as environmental and regulatory concerns hammered sentiment. Bitcoin has since rebounded to more than $46,000, even as the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure bill that would allow for broad oversight of virtual currencies.</p><p><blockquote>在4月份创下近65,000美元的历史新高后，比特币恢复了价格波动。由于环境和监管担忧打击了市场情绪，全球最大的加密货币在6月份跌破30,000美元。此后，比特币已反弹至46,000美元以上，尽管美国。参议院通过了一项基础设施法案，允许对虚拟货币进行广泛监管。</blockquote></p><p> However, fund flows have yet to match the rebound. Bitcoin funds and futures are on track for a third straight month of outflows, the longest streak in data going back to 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The bulk of that decline is due to decreasing open interest in Bitcoin futures, meaning traders let their contracts roll off without renewing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，资金流尚未与反弹相匹配。根据彭博资讯的数据，比特币基金和期货有望连续第三个月出现资金外流，这是自2014年以来最长的数据连续流出。下降的主要原因是比特币期货的未平仓合约减少，这意味着交易员让他们的合约在没有续签的情况下到期。</blockquote></p><p> The outflows might even be bigger, if not for the fact that the $30 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) -- the largest crypto fund -- doesn’t allow for share redemptions. That’s after shares of the trust ballooned by the hundreds of millions earlier this year amid the crypto craze. As a result, GBTC has traded at a persistent discount to its underlying Bitcoin since March.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是因为价值300亿美元的灰度比特币信托基金（股票代码GBTC）——最大的加密货币基金——不允许股票赎回，资金流出可能会更大。今年早些时候，在加密货币热潮中，该信托的股价飙升了数亿美元。因此，自3月份以来，GBTC的交易价格一直低于其基础比特币。</blockquote></p><p> But still, in the eyes of Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart, it’s just a matter of time before investors flood back into crypto funds.</p><p><blockquote>但在彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)的James Seyffart看来，投资者重新涌入加密货币基金只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still demand for Bitcoin products that people can access on the traditional financial system rails, if you will,” Seyffart said. “Flows tend to follow performance in areas and products like this, so with the recent weeks of performance for Bitcoin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those flow numbers potentially turn around.”</p><p><blockquote>塞法特说：“我认为，如果你愿意的话，人们仍然可以在传统金融系统轨道上访问比特币产品。”“流量往往会跟随此类领域和产品的表现，因此根据比特币最近几周的表现，看到这些流量数字可能出现逆转，我不会感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin ETF Filing Flood Collides With Cooling Demand for Funds<blockquote>比特币ETF备案潮与资金需求降温相冲突</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin ETF Filing Flood Collides With Cooling Demand for Funds<blockquote>比特币ETF备案潮与资金需求降温相冲突</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-11 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of optimism among Bitcoin exchange-traded fund advocates this month -- but it’s unclear whether investors share that enthusiasm.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler本月在比特币交易所交易基金倡导者中点燃了新一波乐观情绪，但尚不清楚投资者是否也有这种热情。</blockquote></p><p> Digital-asset investment products from Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares and others saw outflows for the fifth straight week, the longest such streak since January 2018, according to data compiled by CoinShares. The outflows total roughly $93 million over that stretch. Much of it is thanks to money being yanked away from Bitcoin products, according to the digital-asset manager.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinShares汇编的数据，Grayscale、Bitwise、21Shares和其他公司的数字资产投资产品连续第五周出现资金外流，这是自2018年1月以来最长的连续流出。在此期间，资金外流总额约为9300万美元。这位数字资产管理公司表示，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币产品的资金被抽走。</blockquote></p><p> The cooling appetite stands in contrast to the growing pile of cryptocurrency ETF filings, with at least 18 applications landing with the SEC this year. That tally grew by three in the past two weeks after Gensler signaled that regulators may be more open to a Bitcoin ETF if it was based around futures rather than the cryptocurrency itself. However, even if the SEC finally green-lights the fund structure, it’s not a sure bet that a Bitcoin ETF would be met with huge demand, according to Meltem Demirors of Coinshares.</p><p><blockquote>这种降温的兴趣与越来越多的加密货币ETF申请形成鲜明对比，今年至少有18份申请提交给了SEC。Gensler表示，如果比特币ETF基于期货而不是加密货币本身，监管机构可能会对其更加开放，这一数字在过去两周内增加了三个。然而，Coinshares的Meltem Demirors表示，即使SEC最终批准了该基金结构，也不能肯定比特币ETF会满足巨大的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s so many venues for people to buy and sell Bitcoin, to get exposure to Bitcoin in tax-managed accounts,” said Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares. “We’re not really sure what the demand will look like because is the maturation of crypto in the U.S. is already quite high.”</p><p><blockquote>CoinShares首席战略官Demirors表示：“人们有很多地方可以买卖比特币，通过税务管理账户接触比特币。”“我们并不真正确定需求会是什么样子，因为美国加密货币的成熟度已经相当高。”</blockquote></p><p> After setting an all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April, Bitcoin resumed its volatile price swings. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped below $30,000 in June as environmental and regulatory concerns hammered sentiment. Bitcoin has since rebounded to more than $46,000, even as the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure bill that would allow for broad oversight of virtual currencies.</p><p><blockquote>在4月份创下近65,000美元的历史新高后，比特币恢复了价格波动。由于环境和监管担忧打击了市场情绪，全球最大的加密货币在6月份跌破30,000美元。此后，比特币已反弹至46,000美元以上，尽管美国。参议院通过了一项基础设施法案，允许对虚拟货币进行广泛监管。</blockquote></p><p> However, fund flows have yet to match the rebound. Bitcoin funds and futures are on track for a third straight month of outflows, the longest streak in data going back to 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The bulk of that decline is due to decreasing open interest in Bitcoin futures, meaning traders let their contracts roll off without renewing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，资金流尚未与反弹相匹配。根据彭博资讯的数据，比特币基金和期货有望连续第三个月出现资金外流，这是自2014年以来最长的数据连续流出。下降的主要原因是比特币期货的未平仓合约减少，这意味着交易员让他们的合约在没有续签的情况下到期。</blockquote></p><p> The outflows might even be bigger, if not for the fact that the $30 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) -- the largest crypto fund -- doesn’t allow for share redemptions. That’s after shares of the trust ballooned by the hundreds of millions earlier this year amid the crypto craze. As a result, GBTC has traded at a persistent discount to its underlying Bitcoin since March.</p><p><blockquote>如果不是因为价值300亿美元的灰度比特币信托基金（股票代码GBTC）——最大的加密货币基金——不允许股票赎回，资金流出可能会更大。今年早些时候，在加密货币热潮中，该信托的股价飙升了数亿美元。因此，自3月份以来，GBTC的交易价格一直低于其基础比特币。</blockquote></p><p> But still, in the eyes of Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart, it’s just a matter of time before investors flood back into crypto funds.</p><p><blockquote>但在彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)的James Seyffart看来，投资者重新涌入加密货币基金只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still demand for Bitcoin products that people can access on the traditional financial system rails, if you will,” Seyffart said. “Flows tend to follow performance in areas and products like this, so with the recent weeks of performance for Bitcoin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those flow numbers potentially turn around.”</p><p><blockquote>塞法特说：“我认为，如果你愿意的话，人们仍然可以在传统金融系统轨道上访问比特币产品。”“流量往往会跟随此类领域和产品的表现，因此根据比特币最近几周的表现，看到这些流量数字可能出现逆转，我不会感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-filing-flood-collides-150226371.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-filing-flood-collides-150226371.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197984437","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler ignited a fresh wave of optimism among Bitcoin exchange-traded fund advocates this month -- but it’s unclear whether investors share that enthusiasm.\nDigital-asset investment products from Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares and others saw outflows for the fifth straight week, the longest such streak since January 2018, according to data compiled by CoinShares. The outflows total roughly $93 million over that stretch. Much of it is thanks to money being yanked away from Bitcoin products, according to the digital-asset manager.\nThe cooling appetite stands in contrast to the growing pile of cryptocurrency ETF filings, with at least 18 applications landing with the SEC this year. That tally grew by three in the past two weeks after Gensler signaled that regulators may be more open to a Bitcoin ETF if it was based around futures rather than the cryptocurrency itself. However, even if the SEC finally green-lights the fund structure, it’s not a sure bet that a Bitcoin ETF would be met with huge demand, according to Meltem Demirors of Coinshares.\n“There’s so many venues for people to buy and sell Bitcoin, to get exposure to Bitcoin in tax-managed accounts,” said Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares. “We’re not really sure what the demand will look like because is the maturation of crypto in the U.S. is already quite high.”\nAfter setting an all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April, Bitcoin resumed its volatile price swings. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped below $30,000 in June as environmental and regulatory concerns hammered sentiment. Bitcoin has since rebounded to more than $46,000, even as the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure bill that would allow for broad oversight of virtual currencies.\nHowever, fund flows have yet to match the rebound. Bitcoin funds and futures are on track for a third straight month of outflows, the longest streak in data going back to 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The bulk of that decline is due to decreasing open interest in Bitcoin futures, meaning traders let their contracts roll off without renewing.\nThe outflows might even be bigger, if not for the fact that the $30 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (ticker GBTC) -- the largest crypto fund -- doesn’t allow for share redemptions. That’s after shares of the trust ballooned by the hundreds of millions earlier this year amid the crypto craze. As a result, GBTC has traded at a persistent discount to its underlying Bitcoin since March.\nBut still, in the eyes of Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart, it’s just a matter of time before investors flood back into crypto funds.\n“I think there’s still demand for Bitcoin products that people can access on the traditional financial system rails, if you will,” Seyffart said. “Flows tend to follow performance in areas and products like this, so with the recent weeks of performance for Bitcoin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those flow numbers potentially turn around.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}