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2021-07-08

$Apple(AAPL)$200

2021-06-27

Okay

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2021-06-26

Oh I see

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2021-06-27

Okay

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2021-07-08

Good

S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>

2021-06-18

?

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Alibaba

2021-06-26

Just dip

Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过下周3只纳斯达克股票的走势</blockquote>

2021-06-26

I see

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2021-11-07

Good and fine at this point

Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>

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We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180620689","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r","content":"<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师说这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 19:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师说这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180620689","content_text":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.\nHis argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.\nTesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.\nToday, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.\n“The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.\nTrainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.\nTo be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his goal for EVs to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.\nThere are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.\nJonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.\nBut if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.\nRecently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.\nLonger-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.\n“Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.\nHis arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.\nThe bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.\nTime will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860082806,"gmtCreate":1632107832705,"gmtModify":1632802785778,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good and fine","listText":"Good and fine","text":"Good and fine","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fccd48b2ebe3139944c2a32ac4f8f2be","width":"750","height":"1823"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860082806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149876124,"gmtCreate":1625718331968,"gmtModify":1633938032404,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149876124","repostId":"1193960545","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193960545","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625699849,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193960545?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 07:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193960545","media":"Reuters","summary":"Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes\nDow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 07:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-post-record-closing-highs-after-fed-minutes-2021-07-07/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-post-record-closing-highs-after-fed-minutes-2021-07-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193960545","content_text":"Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes\nDow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%\n\nNEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.\nAccording to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.\n\"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.\nTreasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.\nThe minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.\nAfter its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.\nWall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.\nBoth growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&P 500 sector gains.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more\nU.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NDAQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QID":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149871619,"gmtCreate":1625718219231,"gmtModify":1633938033788,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>200","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>200","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$200","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35add34961b93e528ee3567dbbc9c756","width":"640","height":"909"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149871619","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124696014,"gmtCreate":1624761066438,"gmtModify":1633948971629,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124696014","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华“召回”近30万辆汽车。知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚间表示，由于辅助驾驶功能存在问题，特斯拉将不得不“召回”近30万辆中国制造或进口的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：“对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。”“特斯拉将严格按照国家要求，持续提升安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报道称，特斯拉将能够为受影响的客户远程更新软件，这样他们就不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦周刊</i>关于这个问题是否已经在中国导致了碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约30%的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售额最近参差不齐，4月份有所下降，随后5月份的数据更加乐观。自2019年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户抱怨特斯拉的质量和服务，并在四月份的上海车展上提出了抗议。特斯拉四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公关问题的一部分，该问题可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在2020年上涨八倍后，今年下跌了5%。尽管如此，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚中国的问题是否也会影响美国的车辆。周六上午，特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124699048,"gmtCreate":1624760846884,"gmtModify":1633948975687,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124699048","repostId":"2146026425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124607515,"gmtCreate":1624760803537,"gmtModify":1633948977122,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124607515","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125786192,"gmtCreate":1624694183116,"gmtModify":1633949481245,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125786192","repostId":"1177764085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125788401,"gmtCreate":1624694159903,"gmtModify":1631884219235,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just dip","listText":"Just dip","text":"Just dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125788401","repostId":"1152075524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152075524","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624666599,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152075524?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过下周3只纳斯达克股票的走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152075524","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(N","content":"<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现不错，利好情绪送<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克以平静的基调结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年已过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布平静，但市场参与者下周将获得大公司的三份关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，这些新闻可能会在我们今年突破六个月大关时推动市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（纳斯达克：BBBY）将于6月30日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居用品股票受到了很多关注，既是因为它的扭亏为盈努力，也是因为它作为个人投资者关注的模因股票的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond一直在努力制定数字战略来抵御电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此该股获得了投资者的大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入并旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对贝德柏士比昂公司从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计Bed Bath&amp;Beyond将恢复盈利，并实现35%左右的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：MU）周三下午发布了第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业众所周知的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求能持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对2022财年盈利的普遍预测显示，美光科技股价的预期倍数仅为8倍。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上行周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会挤压利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将关注美光科技的报告，不仅要了解事情的进展情况，还要了解其及其竞争对手的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b>（纳斯达克：WBA）将于7月1日星期四公布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能较去年同期略有下滑，但利润将增长近65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种COVID-19疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。不过，更值得长期关注的将是任何评论是否有可能成为电商巨头<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会引发问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一项战略，说明如何利用新冠疫情相关影响的势头。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到2021年甚至更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有一个大惊喜，这可能会导致纳斯达克进入7月4日假期周末。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过下周3只纳斯达克股票的走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过下周3只纳斯达克股票的走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现不错，利好情绪送<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克以平静的基调结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年已过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布平静，但市场参与者下周将获得大公司的三份关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，这些新闻可能会在我们今年突破六个月大关时推动市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（纳斯达克：BBBY）将于6月30日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居用品股票受到了很多关注，既是因为它的扭亏为盈努力，也是因为它作为个人投资者关注的模因股票的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond一直在努力制定数字战略来抵御电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此该股获得了投资者的大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入并旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对贝德柏士比昂公司从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计Bed Bath&amp;Beyond将恢复盈利，并实现35%左右的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：MU）周三下午发布了第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业众所周知的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求能持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对2022财年盈利的普遍预测显示，美光科技股价的预期倍数仅为8倍。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上行周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会挤压利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将关注美光科技的报告，不仅要了解事情的进展情况，还要了解其及其竞争对手的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b>（纳斯达克：WBA）将于7月1日星期四公布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能较去年同期略有下滑，但利润将增长近65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种COVID-19疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。不过，更值得长期关注的将是任何评论是否有可能成为电商巨头<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会引发问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一项战略，说明如何利用新冠疫情相关影响的势头。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到2021年甚至更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有一个大惊喜，这可能会导致纳斯达克进入7月4日假期周末。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152075524","content_text":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.\nWe're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.\nBed Bath & Beyond\nBed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nBed Bath & Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath & Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.\nInvestors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath & Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.\nMicron Technology\nChipmaker Micron Technology(NASDAQ:MU) weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.\nTo be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.\nThe key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.\nWalgreens Boots Alliance\nLastly,Walgreen Boots Alliance(NASDAQ:WBA) will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.\nInvestors will watch how Walgreens has done in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.\nWalgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.\nWatch out for surprises\nNews that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"WBA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125788875,"gmtCreate":1624694133497,"gmtModify":1633949482239,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I 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see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125783720","repostId":"2146107083","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125789853,"gmtCreate":1624693919572,"gmtModify":1633949485015,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go","listText":"Let’s go","text":"Let’s 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>Yahhhh&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166347892,"gmtCreate":1623993954316,"gmtModify":1634024412447,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba","listText":"Alibaba","text":"Alibaba","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ecd1f85bdb103da2248ce987674ad9e","width":"750","height":"338"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166347892","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":149871619,"gmtCreate":1625718219231,"gmtModify":1633938033788,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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07:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193960545","media":"Reuters","summary":"Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes\nDow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 07:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-post-record-closing-highs-after-fed-minutes-2021-07-07/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-post-record-closing-highs-after-fed-minutes-2021-07-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193960545","content_text":"Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes\nDow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%\n\nNEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.\nAccording to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.\n\"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.\nTreasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.\nThe minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.\nAfter its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.\nWall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.\nBoth growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&P 500 sector gains.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more\nU.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NDAQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QID":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166378102,"gmtCreate":1623994124106,"gmtModify":1634024407679,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166378102","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166347892,"gmtCreate":1623993954316,"gmtModify":1634024412447,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba","listText":"Alibaba","text":"Alibaba","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ecd1f85bdb103da2248ce987674ad9e","width":"750","height":"338"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166347892","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125788401,"gmtCreate":1624694159903,"gmtModify":1631884219235,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just dip","listText":"Just dip","text":"Just dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125788401","repostId":"1152075524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152075524","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624666599,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152075524?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过下周3只纳斯达克股票的走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152075524","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(N","content":"<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现不错，利好情绪送<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克以平静的基调结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年已过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布平静，但市场参与者下周将获得大公司的三份关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，这些新闻可能会在我们今年突破六个月大关时推动市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（纳斯达克：BBBY）将于6月30日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居用品股票受到了很多关注，既是因为它的扭亏为盈努力，也是因为它作为个人投资者关注的模因股票的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond一直在努力制定数字战略来抵御电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此该股获得了投资者的大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入并旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对贝德柏士比昂公司从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计Bed Bath&amp;Beyond将恢复盈利，并实现35%左右的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：MU）周三下午发布了第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业众所周知的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求能持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对2022财年盈利的普遍预测显示，美光科技股价的预期倍数仅为8倍。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上行周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会挤压利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将关注美光科技的报告，不仅要了解事情的进展情况，还要了解其及其竞争对手的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b>（纳斯达克：WBA）将于7月1日星期四公布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能较去年同期略有下滑，但利润将增长近65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种COVID-19疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。不过，更值得长期关注的将是任何评论是否有可能成为电商巨头<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会引发问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一项战略，说明如何利用新冠疫情相关影响的势头。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到2021年甚至更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有一个大惊喜，这可能会导致纳斯达克进入7月4日假期周末。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过下周3只纳斯达克股票的走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过下周3只纳斯达克股票的走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现不错，利好情绪送<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克以平静的基调结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年已过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布平静，但市场参与者下周将获得大公司的三份关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，这些新闻可能会在我们今年突破六个月大关时推动市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（纳斯达克：BBBY）将于6月30日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居用品股票受到了很多关注，既是因为它的扭亏为盈努力，也是因为它作为个人投资者关注的模因股票的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond一直在努力制定数字战略来抵御电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此该股获得了投资者的大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入并旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对贝德柏士比昂公司从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计Bed Bath&amp;Beyond将恢复盈利，并实现35%左右的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：MU）周三下午发布了第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业众所周知的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求能持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对2022财年盈利的普遍预测显示，美光科技股价的预期倍数仅为8倍。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上行周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会挤压利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将关注美光科技的报告，不仅要了解事情的进展情况，还要了解其及其竞争对手的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林靴子联盟</b>（纳斯达克：WBA）将于7月1日星期四公布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能较去年同期略有下滑，但利润将增长近65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种COVID-19疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。不过，更值得长期关注的将是任何评论是否有可能成为电商巨头<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会引发问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一项战略，说明如何利用新冠疫情相关影响的势头。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到2021年甚至更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有一个大惊喜，这可能会导致纳斯达克进入7月4日假期周末。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152075524","content_text":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.\nWe're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.\nBed Bath & Beyond\nBed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nBed Bath & Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath & Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.\nInvestors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath & Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.\nMicron Technology\nChipmaker Micron Technology(NASDAQ:MU) weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.\nTo be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.\nThe key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.\nWalgreens Boots Alliance\nLastly,Walgreen Boots Alliance(NASDAQ:WBA) will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.\nInvestors will watch how Walgreens has done in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.\nWalgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.\nWatch out for surprises\nNews that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"WBA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125788875,"gmtCreate":1624694133497,"gmtModify":1633949482239,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125788875","repostId":"2146036830","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":842735741,"gmtCreate":1636243441526,"gmtModify":1636243441599,"author":{"id":"3586691106252473","authorId":"3586691106252473","name":"Almh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087aba90182de632c619651b34bc214d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586691106252473","authorIdStr":"3586691106252473"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good and fine at this point&nbsp;","listText":"Good and fine at this point&nbsp;","text":"Good and fine at this point","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842735741","repostId":"1180620689","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180620689","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636112077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180620689?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180620689","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r","content":"<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师说这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 19:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;advanced 0.4% and the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company&nbsp;Hertz&nbsp;(HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师说这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;[AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors&nbsp;(GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and&nbsp;Volkswagen’s&nbsp;(VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180620689","content_text":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.\nHis argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.\nTesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.\nToday, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.\n“The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.\nTrainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.\nTo be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his goal for EVs to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.\nThere are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.\nJonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.\nBut if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.\nRecently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.\nLonger-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.\n“Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.\nHis arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.\nThe bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.\nTime will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}