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Lainey_Lim

Lainey_Lim

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2021-10-15

Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀

Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>

2021-10-14

BUY-ing [Miser]

86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research首次对TIGR给予买入评级</blockquote>

2021-10-08

Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart]

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2021-10-07

Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]

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2021-10-02

Interesting choices 🤔

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2021-09-30

So much good options! [Miser]

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2021-09-29

Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯

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2021-09-26

Added to watchlist [Observation]

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2021-09-24

Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀

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2021-09-23

[Blush]

Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始认为股市投资者“更有可能”出现“火与冰”和熊市下跌</blockquote>

2021-09-22

Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀

Open Orphan Gets £5.7 Mln Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract<blockquote>Open Orphan获得570万英镑流感人体挑战研究合同</blockquote>

2021-09-18

To the moon 🚀

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2021-09-17

High risk, high return and not for everyone especially that’s your means of income! You might lose it all [Spurting]

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2021-09-11

Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]

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2021-09-10

Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]

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2021-09-09

Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀

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2021-09-08

Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Great tips [Miser]

3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Amazing [Wow]

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2021-08-30

It’s my birthday too 🥳

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but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","listText":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","text":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825701647","repostId":"1111412750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经被打破。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎遇到了麻烦。有一个很好的理由解释为什么逢低买入没有奏效，而且可能这次也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，波动性下降一直是支撑市场每次出现动摇的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX都会飙升。然后，一群交易者会进来寻求做空波动性，这将导致VIX走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一部分似乎已经消失了。VIX自6月以来一直稳步上升，低点较高。最近，VIX未能跌破18，标普500的每次下跌都会出现较低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，偏斜指数最近几周有所下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空平价形式的波动性，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入价外形式的波动性。这就是为什么SKEW指数在6月份创下历史新高，而VIX则触及低点。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对波动性空头头寸的对冲，SKEW指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不重返这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。波动性卖家的消失似乎是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过了。实质性的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天与当时有许多相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中很大一部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的交易与美元的走势完全相反。当美元一直走强时，标普500一直在下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快就会到来。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股市不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过35个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期国债很可能需要上涨更多。到2014年10月QE缩减结束时，两年期利率约为50至60个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在必须进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在11月FOMC会议上开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但10年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在接受我几个月来一直告诉你的内容。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近失速速度。美国的增长速度如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow目前预计第三季度增长率仅为1.3%，较第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常时期，强势美元会向购买大宗商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等价格上涨已经可能会减缓经济增长，现在随着美元升值，这使得问题更加突出。它正在压低曲线长端的利率并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次不同于以往的回调。这就是为什么这次回调只是处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为如果有一件事非常清楚，那就是GDP增长预期与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利预期很可能与基础相差甚远，这意味着盈利增长率将下降或高于下降水平。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的时候推高美元指数，从而导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825166300,"gmtCreate":1634210513996,"gmtModify":1634210514110,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"BUY-ing [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"BUY-ing [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"BUY-ing [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825166300","repostId":"1169529009","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169529009","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632904196,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169529009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 16:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research首次对TIGR给予买入评级</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169529009","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock inv","content":"<p>• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally&nbsp;together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their&nbsp;price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83%&nbsp;upside&nbsp;potential&nbsp;from&nbsp;the&nbsp;latest&nbsp;market&nbsp;close&nbsp;price,&nbsp;despite&nbsp;possible&nbsp;sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.</p><p><blockquote>•86Research首次对TIGR给予买入评级。中国日益增长的跨境股票投资需求和全球范围内基于互联网的零售经纪服务的兴起共同支撑了强劲的行业基本面。TIGR是互联网券商领域的先行者，通过为散户投资者提供更好的服务，表现明显优于传统券商。尽管中国ADR可能出现全行业波动，但他们的目标价为每股ADR 21美元，这意味着较最新市场收盘价有83%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> •&nbsp;86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US&nbsp;$668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will&nbsp;decline&nbsp;due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;mix&nbsp;change&nbsp;of&nbsp;financing&nbsp;activities&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;platform.</p><p><blockquote>•86 Research预测TIGR的净收入将在2024年达到6.68亿美元，4年复合年增长率为51%。根据他们的预测，到2024年底，TIGR存款客户数量将达到170万。总AUM和融资余额将分别超过1030亿美元和55亿美元。预计2024年TIGR的交易量将达到13,380亿美元。86研究预计佣金率将基本保持不变。更多的衍生品交易将部分抵消价格竞争的负面影响。86Research认为，由于平台融资活动的组合变化，混合利率将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research&nbsp;derives&nbsp;their&nbsp;US$21&nbsp;price&nbsp;target&nbsp;based&nbsp;on&nbsp;a&nbsp;20x&nbsp;2024E&nbsp;P/E&nbsp;multiple&nbsp;and&nbsp;13%&nbsp;2-yr&nbsp;discount&nbsp;rate.&nbsp;The&nbsp;PT&nbsp;implies&nbsp;13.8x/11.7x/8.4x&nbsp;2021E/2022E/2023E&nbsp;forward&nbsp;P/B&nbsp;multiples,&nbsp;reflecting&nbsp;a&nbsp;premium&nbsp;to&nbsp;global&nbsp;peers.&nbsp;HK&nbsp;license&nbsp;approval,&nbsp;progress&nbsp;in&nbsp;international&nbsp;expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>•86 Research基于20 x 2024年市盈率和13%的2年贴现率得出21美元的目标价。PT意味着13.8 x/11.7 x/8.4 x 2021年/2022年/2023年E远期市净率倍数，反映出相对于全球同行的溢价。香港牌照批准、国际扩张进展和美国自我清算是近期的关键催化剂，而监管和宏观不确定性是主要的投资风险。86Research建议投资者在近期市场情绪疲软导致的回调中买入该股。86对TIGR的看法：买入；PT$21/ADS；一家正在崛起的中国互联网经纪平台；全球扩张以推动长期增长；最近的回调创造了买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app&nbsp;and&nbsp;one&nbsp;account.</p><p><blockquote>•86Research看好TIGR继续从传统经纪商那里获得市场份额的能力。互联网公司的战略重点和运营效率赋予了TIGR优势，例如在零售经纪服务方面更低的定价和更好的用户体验。此外，TIGR提供了比大多数传统经纪商更多的多样性，使散户投资者能够在一个应用程序和一个账户中交易多个市场的证券。</blockquote></p><p> • Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business&nbsp;development&nbsp;in&nbsp;investment&nbsp;banking&nbsp;and&nbsp;wealth&nbsp;management&nbsp;services&nbsp;are&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;contribute&nbsp;meaningful&nbsp;revenues.</p><p><blockquote>•非佣金收入快速增长。随着更多合并账户（CA）账户用户将采用TIGR提供的自筹资金融资服务，利息收入将持续增长。他们的分析表明，CA账户用户融资服务的净息差远高于完全披露（FD）账户用户融资服务的净息差。此外，投资银行及财富管理服务的业务发展预计将贡献可观的收入。</blockquote></p><p> • International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion.&nbsp;Although&nbsp;facing&nbsp;challenges&nbsp;in&nbsp;terms&nbsp;of&nbsp;culture,&nbsp;regulatory&nbsp;environment&nbsp;and&nbsp;competition,&nbsp;86Research&nbsp;is&nbsp;positive&nbsp;that&nbsp;TIGR&nbsp;will&nbsp;capture&nbsp;more&nbsp;growth&nbsp;in&nbsp;its&nbsp;two&nbsp;promising&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote>•国际扩张创造新故事。TIGR加大了从2020年第三季度的全球扩张力度，主要瞄准新加坡和美国市场。新加坡拥有超过100万潜在个人投资者，约为香港市场规模的一半。美国市场拥有近1亿散户投资者，总资产约50万亿美元。尽管面临文化、监管环境和竞争方面的挑战，86 Research乐观地认为，TIGR将在其两个有前景的市场中获得更多增长。</blockquote></p><p> • TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research&nbsp;is confident such growth&nbsp;can&nbsp;offset&nbsp;the&nbsp;cyclical&nbsp;impact&nbsp;from&nbsp;a&nbsp;long-term&nbsp;perspective.</p><p><blockquote>•TIGR的股价一直波动。86Research建议投资者逢低买入。他们认为，最近的股市波动将影响其财务业绩，但不会改变长期增长故事。该公司继续获得零售经纪服务的市场份额，并发展非佣金业务，如保证金融资、财富管理、订单流等。86 Research有信心从长期角度来看，这种增长可以抵消周期性影响。</blockquote></p><p> • HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR&nbsp;can&nbsp;also&nbsp;build&nbsp;connections&nbsp;with&nbsp;banks to&nbsp;provide&nbsp;IPO&nbsp;subscriptions&nbsp;and&nbsp;financing&nbsp;services&nbsp;in&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;and&nbsp;support&nbsp;the&nbsp;development&nbsp;of&nbsp;margin&nbsp;financing&nbsp;business.</p><p><blockquote>•香港牌照是近期的催化剂。TIGR预计最快将于今年在香港获得经纪牌照，这将使其能够在该地区开展市场活动并获取用户。作为注册券商，TIGR还可以与银行建立联系，在香港提供IPO认购和融资服务，并支持融资业务的发展。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research首次对TIGR给予买入评级</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research首次对TIGR给予买入评级</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-29 16:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally&nbsp;together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their&nbsp;price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83%&nbsp;upside&nbsp;potential&nbsp;from&nbsp;the&nbsp;latest&nbsp;market&nbsp;close&nbsp;price,&nbsp;despite&nbsp;possible&nbsp;sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.</p><p><blockquote>•86Research首次对TIGR给予买入评级。中国日益增长的跨境股票投资需求和全球范围内基于互联网的零售经纪服务的兴起共同支撑了强劲的行业基本面。TIGR是互联网券商领域的先行者，通过为散户投资者提供更好的服务，表现明显优于传统券商。尽管中国ADR可能出现全行业波动，但他们的目标价为每股ADR 21美元，这意味着较最新市场收盘价有83%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> •&nbsp;86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US&nbsp;$668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will&nbsp;decline&nbsp;due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;mix&nbsp;change&nbsp;of&nbsp;financing&nbsp;activities&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;platform.</p><p><blockquote>•86 Research预测TIGR的净收入将在2024年达到6.68亿美元，4年复合年增长率为51%。根据他们的预测，到2024年底，TIGR存款客户数量将达到170万。总AUM和融资余额将分别超过1030亿美元和55亿美元。预计2024年TIGR的交易量将达到13,380亿美元。86研究预计佣金率将基本保持不变。更多的衍生品交易将部分抵消价格竞争的负面影响。86Research认为，由于平台融资活动的组合变化，混合利率将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research&nbsp;derives&nbsp;their&nbsp;US$21&nbsp;price&nbsp;target&nbsp;based&nbsp;on&nbsp;a&nbsp;20x&nbsp;2024E&nbsp;P/E&nbsp;multiple&nbsp;and&nbsp;13%&nbsp;2-yr&nbsp;discount&nbsp;rate.&nbsp;The&nbsp;PT&nbsp;implies&nbsp;13.8x/11.7x/8.4x&nbsp;2021E/2022E/2023E&nbsp;forward&nbsp;P/B&nbsp;multiples,&nbsp;reflecting&nbsp;a&nbsp;premium&nbsp;to&nbsp;global&nbsp;peers.&nbsp;HK&nbsp;license&nbsp;approval,&nbsp;progress&nbsp;in&nbsp;international&nbsp;expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>•86 Research基于20 x 2024年市盈率和13%的2年贴现率得出21美元的目标价。PT意味着13.8 x/11.7 x/8.4 x 2021年/2022年/2023年E远期市净率倍数，反映出相对于全球同行的溢价。香港牌照批准、国际扩张进展和美国自我清算是近期的关键催化剂，而监管和宏观不确定性是主要的投资风险。86Research建议投资者在近期市场情绪疲软导致的回调中买入该股。86对TIGR的看法：买入；PT$21/ADS；一家正在崛起的中国互联网经纪平台；全球扩张以推动长期增长；最近的回调创造了买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app&nbsp;and&nbsp;one&nbsp;account.</p><p><blockquote>•86Research看好TIGR继续从传统经纪商那里获得市场份额的能力。互联网公司的战略重点和运营效率赋予了TIGR优势，例如在零售经纪服务方面更低的定价和更好的用户体验。此外，TIGR提供了比大多数传统经纪商更多的多样性，使散户投资者能够在一个应用程序和一个账户中交易多个市场的证券。</blockquote></p><p> • Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business&nbsp;development&nbsp;in&nbsp;investment&nbsp;banking&nbsp;and&nbsp;wealth&nbsp;management&nbsp;services&nbsp;are&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;contribute&nbsp;meaningful&nbsp;revenues.</p><p><blockquote>•非佣金收入快速增长。随着更多合并账户（CA）账户用户将采用TIGR提供的自筹资金融资服务，利息收入将持续增长。他们的分析表明，CA账户用户融资服务的净息差远高于完全披露（FD）账户用户融资服务的净息差。此外，投资银行及财富管理服务的业务发展预计将贡献可观的收入。</blockquote></p><p> • International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion.&nbsp;Although&nbsp;facing&nbsp;challenges&nbsp;in&nbsp;terms&nbsp;of&nbsp;culture,&nbsp;regulatory&nbsp;environment&nbsp;and&nbsp;competition,&nbsp;86Research&nbsp;is&nbsp;positive&nbsp;that&nbsp;TIGR&nbsp;will&nbsp;capture&nbsp;more&nbsp;growth&nbsp;in&nbsp;its&nbsp;two&nbsp;promising&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote>•国际扩张创造新故事。TIGR加大了从2020年第三季度的全球扩张力度，主要瞄准新加坡和美国市场。新加坡拥有超过100万潜在个人投资者，约为香港市场规模的一半。美国市场拥有近1亿散户投资者，总资产约50万亿美元。尽管面临文化、监管环境和竞争方面的挑战，86 Research乐观地认为，TIGR将在其两个有前景的市场中获得更多增长。</blockquote></p><p> • TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research&nbsp;is confident such growth&nbsp;can&nbsp;offset&nbsp;the&nbsp;cyclical&nbsp;impact&nbsp;from&nbsp;a&nbsp;long-term&nbsp;perspective.</p><p><blockquote>•TIGR的股价一直波动。86Research建议投资者逢低买入。他们认为，最近的股市波动将影响其财务业绩，但不会改变长期增长故事。该公司继续获得零售经纪服务的市场份额，并发展非佣金业务，如保证金融资、财富管理、订单流等。86 Research有信心从长期角度来看，这种增长可以抵消周期性影响。</blockquote></p><p> • HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR&nbsp;can&nbsp;also&nbsp;build&nbsp;connections&nbsp;with&nbsp;banks to&nbsp;provide&nbsp;IPO&nbsp;subscriptions&nbsp;and&nbsp;financing&nbsp;services&nbsp;in&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;and&nbsp;support&nbsp;the&nbsp;development&nbsp;of&nbsp;margin&nbsp;financing&nbsp;business.</p><p><blockquote>•香港牌照是近期的催化剂。TIGR预计最快将于今年在香港获得经纪牌照，这将使其能够在该地区开展市场活动并获取用户。作为注册券商，TIGR还可以与银行建立联系，在香港提供IPO认购和融资服务，并支持融资业务的发展。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169529009","content_text":"• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83% upside potential from the latest market close price, despite possible sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.\n• 86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US $668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will decline due to the mix change of financing activities on the platform.\n• 86Research derives their US$21 price target based on a 20x 2024E P/E multiple and 13% 2-yr discount rate. The PT implies 13.8x/11.7x/8.4x 2021E/2022E/2023E forward P/B multiples, reflecting a premium to global peers. HK license approval, progress in international expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.\n• 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app and one account.\n• Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business development in investment banking and wealth management services are expected to contribute meaningful revenues.\n• International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion. Although facing challenges in terms of culture, regulatory environment and competition, 86Research is positive that TIGR will capture more growth in its two promising markets.\n• TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research is confident such growth can offset the cyclical impact from a long-term perspective.\n• HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR can also build connections with banks to provide IPO subscriptions and financing services in Hong Kong and support the development of margin financing business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823518653,"gmtCreate":1633648680507,"gmtModify":1633648844493,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year&nbsp;[Smart]&nbsp;","listText":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year&nbsp;[Smart]&nbsp;","text":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823518653","repostId":"1152020493","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829729057,"gmtCreate":1633560025456,"gmtModify":1633560025952,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829729057","repostId":"2173917919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864244853,"gmtCreate":1633123723364,"gmtModify":1633123723760,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","text":"Interesting choices 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864244853","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865339222,"gmtCreate":1632950152696,"gmtModify":1632950153088,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"So much good options! [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865339222","repostId":"2171984641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"content":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","text":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","html":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862893372,"gmtCreate":1632865487416,"gmtModify":1632865487543,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looks like we will need to cash&nbsp;up 🐯","listText":"Looks like we will need to cash&nbsp;up 🐯","text":"Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862893372","repostId":"1166571782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868389953,"gmtCreate":1632608695272,"gmtModify":1632653975170,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","listText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","text":"Added to watchlist [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868389953","repostId":"1188909032","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863705575,"gmtCreate":1632432667697,"gmtModify":1632728586616,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","listText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","text":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863705575","repostId":"2169667599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863040780,"gmtCreate":1632348701740,"gmtModify":1632801122370,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","listText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","text":"[Blush]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863040780","repostId":"1118101852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118101852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632302285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118101852?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始认为股市投资者“更有可能”出现“火与冰”和熊市下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118101852","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInv","content":"<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的迈克尔·威尔逊认为牛市将以火告终，尽管它也可能以冰告终。</blockquote></p><p> Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire &amp; Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.</p><p><blockquote>这位摩根士丹利策略师援引罗伯特·弗罗斯特(Robert Frost)诗歌《火与冰》中的意象表示，他认为美国企业的盈利修正“和更高频率的宏观数据”表明经济正在减速，“在需求拉动、供应链问题和利润压力”，他预测这可能会导致股价下跌20%，他在9月20日的一份研究报告中将这一近期结果描述为投资者的“Ice”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&amp;P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市“更有可能”下跌20%。然而，在周二接受CNBC采访时，这位策略师坚称，10%仍然是他的“基本情况”情景，并将标普500指数年底的预测维持在4,000点左右。</blockquote></p><p> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.</p><p><blockquote>从近期峰值下跌至少20%是被广泛接受的熊市定义，而下跌10%则定义回调。</blockquote></p><p> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”</p><p><blockquote>他推测，美联储开始努力“取消货币宽松以应对经济过热”，这将导致市场下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月会议，并发布更新的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote></p><p> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.</p><p><blockquote>在周一暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日面临抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大3333，-0.44%可能出现债务违约，从而可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.</p><p><blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数(-0.08%)和纳斯达克综合指数(+0.22%)创下5月12日以来的最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数(-0.15%)创下7月19日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯市场数据显示，标普500在大约220个交易日中没有从峰值回调5%，这是自2016年以来最长的一次，当时市场有404个交易日没有从峰值到低谷下跌至少5%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较9月2日收盘纪录下跌约4%，道琼斯指数较8月16日收盘纪录下跌4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较9月7日近期高点下跌4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson said that the break of the S&amp;P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500跌破50日均线，发生在周五，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊在接受CNBC采访时表示：“嗯，我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终确实‘剔除’了50日移动平均线……而且它昨天猛烈突破了……我认为你必须注意这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“我尊重市场，我建议其他人尊重市场……这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战，”威尔逊说。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，”他对投资者在这个欢欣鼓舞的大流行复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始认为股市投资者“更有可能”出现“火与冰”和熊市下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始认为股市投资者“更有可能”出现“火与冰”和熊市下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-22 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的迈克尔·威尔逊认为牛市将以火告终，尽管它也可能以冰告终。</blockquote></p><p> Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire &amp; Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.</p><p><blockquote>这位摩根士丹利策略师援引罗伯特·弗罗斯特(Robert Frost)诗歌《火与冰》中的意象表示，他认为美国企业的盈利修正“和更高频率的宏观数据”表明经济正在减速，“在需求拉动、供应链问题和利润压力”，他预测这可能会导致股价下跌20%，他在9月20日的一份研究报告中将这一近期结果描述为投资者的“Ice”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&amp;P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市“更有可能”下跌20%。然而，在周二接受CNBC采访时，这位策略师坚称，10%仍然是他的“基本情况”情景，并将标普500指数年底的预测维持在4,000点左右。</blockquote></p><p> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.</p><p><blockquote>从近期峰值下跌至少20%是被广泛接受的熊市定义，而下跌10%则定义回调。</blockquote></p><p> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”</p><p><blockquote>他推测，美联储开始努力“取消货币宽松以应对经济过热”，这将导致市场下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月会议，并发布更新的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote></p><p> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.</p><p><blockquote>在周一暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日面临抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大3333，-0.44%可能出现债务违约，从而可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.</p><p><blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数(-0.08%)和纳斯达克综合指数(+0.22%)创下5月12日以来的最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数(-0.15%)创下7月19日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯市场数据显示，标普500在大约220个交易日中没有从峰值回调5%，这是自2016年以来最长的一次，当时市场有404个交易日没有从峰值到低谷下跌至少5%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较9月2日收盘纪录下跌约4%，道琼斯指数较8月16日收盘纪录下跌4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较9月7日近期高点下跌4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson said that the break of the S&amp;P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500跌破50日均线，发生在周五，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊在接受CNBC采访时表示：“嗯，我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终确实‘剔除’了50日移动平均线……而且它昨天猛烈突破了……我认为你必须注意这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“我尊重市场，我建议其他人尊重市场……这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战，”威尔逊说。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，”他对投资者在这个欢欣鼓舞的大流行复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118101852","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInvoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.\nWilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.\nA fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.\nHis “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”\nThe Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.\nThe equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.\nOn Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.\nThe S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMonday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.\nWilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.\n“Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.\n“I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.\n“I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869394565,"gmtCreate":1632241932157,"gmtModify":1632801807056,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀","listText":"Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀","text":"Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869394565","repostId":"2168504507","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2168504507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1632119775,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2168504507?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 14:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Open Orphan Gets £5.7 Mln Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract<blockquote>Open Orphan获得570万英镑流感人体挑战研究合同</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168504507","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"Open Orphan PLC :Open Orphan Plc  - £5.7M Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract Win.","content":"<p><html><body>Open Orphan <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> <orph.l>:Open Orphan Plc  - £5.7M Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract Win.</orph.l></p><p><blockquote><html><body>开放孤儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a><orph.l>：Open Orphan Plc–赢得570万英镑流感人体挑战研究合同。</orph.l></body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Open Orphan Gets £5.7 Mln Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract<blockquote>Open Orphan获得570万英镑流感人体挑战研究合同</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpen Orphan Gets £5.7 Mln Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract<blockquote>Open Orphan获得570万英镑流感人体挑战研究合同</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 14:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Open Orphan <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> <orph.l>:Open Orphan Plc  - £5.7M Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract Win.</orph.l></p><p><blockquote><html><body>开放孤儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a><orph.l>：Open Orphan Plc–赢得570万英镑流感人体挑战研究合同。</orph.l></body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168504507","content_text":"Open Orphan PLC :Open Orphan Plc  - £5.7M Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract Win.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORPH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884534674,"gmtCreate":1631917307898,"gmtModify":1632805428096,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon 🚀","listText":"To the moon 🚀","text":"To the moon 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884534674","repostId":"2168885573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884965181,"gmtCreate":1631847641643,"gmtModify":1631889375497,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"High risk, high return and&nbsp;not for everyone especially that’s your means of income! You might lose it all [Spurting]&nbsp;","listText":"High risk, high return and&nbsp;not for everyone especially that’s your means of income! You might lose it all [Spurting]&nbsp;","text":"High risk, high return and not for everyone especially that’s your means of income! You might lose it all [Spurting]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884965181","repostId":"2167599164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881134578,"gmtCreate":1631315977694,"gmtModify":1631889375501,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881134578","repostId":"2166897344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883111049,"gmtCreate":1631225268381,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883111049","repostId":"2166317474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889563744,"gmtCreate":1631159132288,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","listText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","text":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889563744","repostId":"1138338668","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880874910,"gmtCreate":1631050024830,"gmtModify":1631889375506,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]&nbsp;","listText":"Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]&nbsp;","text":"Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880874910","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817206382,"gmtCreate":1630964991446,"gmtModify":1631889375510,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Great tips [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817206382","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818708460,"gmtCreate":1630446081750,"gmtModify":1631889375516,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazing [Wow]&nbsp;","listText":"Amazing [Wow]&nbsp;","text":"Amazing [Wow]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818708460","repostId":"2163319158","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811209615,"gmtCreate":1630323473037,"gmtModify":1704958407459,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s my birthday too&nbsp;🥳&nbsp;","listText":"It’s my birthday too&nbsp;🥳&nbsp;","text":"It’s my birthday too 🥳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811209615","repostId":"1129827670","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":829729057,"gmtCreate":1633560025456,"gmtModify":1633560025952,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829729057","repostId":"2173917919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832946498,"gmtCreate":1629580277714,"gmtModify":1633684010081,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Staying away for sure after reading this!!!","listText":"Staying away for sure after reading this!!!","text":"Staying away for sure after reading this!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832946498","repostId":"1172699620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172699620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629450202,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172699620?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 17:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Penny Stocks: Why You Should Always Stay Away<blockquote>细价股：为什么你应该永远远离</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172699620","media":"Kiplinger","summary":"Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar","content":"<p>Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar per share – are dangerous. Period. Indeed, with a few exceptions, investors should steer clear of these uber-cheap stocks, which typically trade over-the-counter and not on a major exchange.</p><p><blockquote>细价股——那些低价交易的股票，通常每股股价不到一美元——是危险的。周期。事实上，除了少数例外，投资者应该避开这些超便宜的股票，这些股票通常在场外交易，而不是在主要交易所交易。</blockquote></p><p> Call them penny stocks, microcaps or OTC stocks; by any name, they’re bad news. Promises of quick and easy riches are easier to fall for when an investment can be made with so little money up front. An investor might think, \"How risky could it be?\"</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权他们细价股、微型股或场外交易股票；不管叫什么名字，都是坏消息。当前期投入如此之少的资金就可以进行投资时，快速轻松致富的承诺更容易上当。投资者可能会想，“风险有多大？”</blockquote></p><p> Plenty. Per the Securities and Exchange Commission: “Academic studies find that OTC stocks tend to be highly illiquid; are frequent targets of alleged market manipulation; generate negative and volatile investment returns on average; and rarely grow into a large company or transition to listing on a stock exchange.”</p><p><blockquote>大量。根据美国证券交易委员会的说法：“学术研究发现，场外交易股票往往流动性极差；经常成为涉嫌市场操纵的目标；平均产生负面且不稳定的投资回报；并且很少成长为大公司或过渡到在证券交易所上市。”</blockquote></p><p> We’ll break down what all that means below, but suffice to say, the SEC is not a fan.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下面详细说明这一切的含义，但我只想说，SEC并不热衷于此。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Why Penny Stocks Are So Dangerous</b></h3> To be clear, this is not to say that every penny stock or OTC company is a scam. The danger is that the over-the-counter market is where the scam stocks live. Think of it as a bad neighborhood. Being there can make you a mark for a con.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>为什么细价股如此危险</b></h3>需要明确的是，这并不是说每个细价股或场外交易公司都是骗局。危险在于，场外市场是骗局股票的生存之地。把它想象成一个糟糕的社区。在那里会让你成为骗子的标志。</blockquote></p><p> For some background, the OTC market is different from exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where trading is centralized. There is no one OTC exchange. Instead, the OTC connects buyers and sellers over a computer- and telephone-based system. Any stock that does not trade on the NYSE, Nasdaq or other established U.S. exchange can trade over-the-counter. These securities also are known as “unlisted stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>在某些背景下，场外交易市场不同于纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等交易集中的交易所。没有一个OTC交易所。相反，场外交易通过基于计算机和电话的系统将买家和卖家联系起来。任何不在纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克或其他美国成熟交易所交易的股票都可以进行场外交易。这些证券也被称为“非上市股票”。</blockquote></p><p> Typically, OTC stocks tend to be highly risky microcap stocks (the shares of small companies with market capitalizations of under $300 million), which include nanocap stocks (those with market values of under $50 million).</p><p><blockquote>通常，场外交易股票往往是高风险的微型股（市值低于3亿美元的小公司股票），其中包括纳米股（市值低于5000万美元的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> The SEC has long warned investors about the high risks associated with such stocks. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the industry’s self-regulatory agency, likewise waves a red flag over the buying and trading of OTC securities.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会长期以来一直警告投资者此类股票的高风险。该行业的自律机构金融业监管局（FINRA）同样对场外证券的购买和交易发出了危险信号。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because companies that list on the OTC aren’t required to file periodic or audited financial reports as they must do if they are listed on a major exchange, such as the NYSE or the Nasdaq. In other words, there’s no way to know if they’re telling the truth when they claim to have sales and profits. The major exchanges also have listing requirements; OTC stocks don’t. For example, a company must have at least 400 shareholders and a market value of at least $40 million to get a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The OTC makes no such requirements.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为在场外交易市场上市的公司不需要像在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等主要交易所上市的公司那样提交定期或经审计的财务报告。换句话说，当他们声称有销售额和利润时，没有办法知道他们是否在说实话。各大交易所也有上市要求；场外交易股票则不然。例如，一家公司必须拥有至少400名股东且市值至少4000万美元才能在纽约证券交易所上市。OTC没有这样的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Put it all together, and it makes it easier for unscrupulous managers to lie about their business prospects or commit securities fraud.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，这使得无良的管理者更容易谎报业务前景或实施证券欺诈。</blockquote></p><p> But that’s not all. The shares that exchange hands on the OTC tend to be “illiquid,” meaning they often trade in low volumes and have a limited number of buyers and sellers. That can make it difficult or impossible for investors to buy or sell shares at the prices they want.</p><p><blockquote>但这还不是全部。在场外交易的股票往往“缺乏流动性”，这意味着它们的交易量通常很低，买家和卖家数量有限。这可能会使投资者很难或不可能以他们想要的价格买卖股票。</blockquote></p><p> That lack of liquidity also makes many OTC stocks the perfect vehicle for “pump-and-dump” schemes where stock promoters lure investors to buy shares, increasing the stock price. Then, when the price gets high enough, the pumper sells his shares, causing the stock to fall and leaving investors with poor returns, or even losses. Anyone here see&nbsp;<i>The Wolf of Wall Street</i>?</p><p><blockquote>流动性的缺乏也使许多场外交易股票成为“拉高抛售”计划的完美工具，即股票发起人引诱投资者购买股票，从而提高股价。然后，当价格足够高时，抽水者出售他的股票，导致股票下跌，给投资者留下糟糕的回报，甚至亏损。这里有人看到了吗<i>华尔街之狼</i>？</blockquote></p><p> To protect investors from falling for these schemes, the SEC suspended trading of more than 800 microcap stocks – more than 8% of the OTC market – between 2012 and 2015. Once a stock has been suspended from trading, it cannot be relisted unless the company provides updated financial information to prove it’s actually operational. Since that rarely happens, trading suspensions essentially render the shares useless to scam artists.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护投资者不上当受骗，SEC在2012年至2015年间暂停了800多只微型股（占场外交易市场的8%以上）的交易。股票一旦暂停交易，就不能重新上市，除非公司提供最新的财务信息来证明其实际运营。由于这种情况很少发生，交易暂停基本上使股票对诈骗艺术家毫无用处。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Legitimate OTCs</b></h3> Be that as it may, there is one segment of the OTC market that investors need not fear.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>合法OTC</b></h3>尽管如此，场外交易市场的一部分投资者不必担心。</blockquote></p><p> Amidst the riff-raff, some of the biggest, most respected foreign companies in the world list their U.S. shares over-the-counter instead of on the major U.S. exchanges. Here, you’ll find shares of&nbsp;<b>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(IDCBY), which happens to be the biggest bank in the world. You also can buy shares of Switzerland’s<b>Nestlé</b>(NSRGY), the largest food company in the world; China’s&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">Tencent Holding Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(TCEHY), one of the country’s largest internet service providers; and Japanese gaming giant&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">Nintendo Co., Ltd.</a> </b>(NTDOY).</p><p><blockquote>在混混中，一些世界上最大、最受尊敬的外国公司将其美国股票在场外交易而不是在美国主要交易所上市。在这里，您可以找到<b>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">中国工商银行。</a></b>（IDCBY），恰好是世界上最大的银行。您还可以购买瑞士的股票<b>雀巢</b>（NSRGY），全球最大的食品公司；中国的<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">腾讯控股控股有限公司。</a></b>(TCEHY)，该国最大的互联网服务提供商之一；和日本游戏巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">任天堂有限公司。</a></b>（NTDOY）。</blockquote></p><p> Why would major, international publicly traded companies rub shoulders with firms that issue highly speculative penny stocks?</p><p><blockquote>为什么大型国际上市公司会与发行高度投机性细价股的公司合作？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason has to do with cost and convenience. For example, a foreign firm listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq must prepare two sets of audited financial statements for everything it does – one to conform with international accounting standards, and another that adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) used in the U.S. That isn’t a requirement over-the-counter.</p><p><blockquote>原因与成本和便利性有关。例如，在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克上市的外国公司必须为其所做的一切准备两套经审计的财务报表——一套符合国际会计准则，另一套符合公认会计原则(GAAP)在美国，这不是非处方药的要求。</blockquote></p><p> With an OTC listing, a foreign company gains access to the vast pool of U.S. equity investors at a fraction of the cost and effort.</p><p><blockquote>通过场外交易上市，外国公司可以以很低的成本和精力接触到庞大的美国股票投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that with the exception of large, established foreign firms, OTC stocks come with too many risks. It’s not possible for the average investor to know if the company is on the up and up. And even legitimate tiny companies can fail virtually overnight. The pitfalls of trading OTC stocks just aren’t worth it.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，除了大型老牌外国公司，场外交易股票风险太大。普通投资者不可能知道公司是否在上升。即使是合法的小公司也可能在一夜之间倒闭。场外交易股票的陷阱根本不值得。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy enough to lose money investing in stocks. Why make it easier?</p><p><blockquote>投资股票很容易赔钱。为什么要让它更容易？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1629449927514","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Penny Stocks: Why You Should Always Stay Away<blockquote>细价股：为什么你应该永远远离</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPenny Stocks: Why You Should Always Stay Away<blockquote>细价股：为什么你应该永远远离</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kiplinger</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 17:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar per share – are dangerous. Period. Indeed, with a few exceptions, investors should steer clear of these uber-cheap stocks, which typically trade over-the-counter and not on a major exchange.</p><p><blockquote>细价股——那些低价交易的股票，通常每股股价不到一美元——是危险的。周期。事实上，除了少数例外，投资者应该避开这些超便宜的股票，这些股票通常在场外交易，而不是在主要交易所交易。</blockquote></p><p> Call them penny stocks, microcaps or OTC stocks; by any name, they’re bad news. Promises of quick and easy riches are easier to fall for when an investment can be made with so little money up front. An investor might think, \"How risky could it be?\"</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权他们细价股、微型股或场外交易股票；不管叫什么名字，都是坏消息。当前期投入如此之少的资金就可以进行投资时，快速轻松致富的承诺更容易上当。投资者可能会想，“风险有多大？”</blockquote></p><p> Plenty. Per the Securities and Exchange Commission: “Academic studies find that OTC stocks tend to be highly illiquid; are frequent targets of alleged market manipulation; generate negative and volatile investment returns on average; and rarely grow into a large company or transition to listing on a stock exchange.”</p><p><blockquote>大量。根据美国证券交易委员会的说法：“学术研究发现，场外交易股票往往流动性极差；经常成为涉嫌市场操纵的目标；平均产生负面且不稳定的投资回报；并且很少成长为大公司或过渡到在证券交易所上市。”</blockquote></p><p> We’ll break down what all that means below, but suffice to say, the SEC is not a fan.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下面详细说明这一切的含义，但我只想说，SEC并不热衷于此。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Why Penny Stocks Are So Dangerous</b></h3> To be clear, this is not to say that every penny stock or OTC company is a scam. The danger is that the over-the-counter market is where the scam stocks live. Think of it as a bad neighborhood. Being there can make you a mark for a con.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>为什么细价股如此危险</b></h3>需要明确的是，这并不是说每个细价股或场外交易公司都是骗局。危险在于，场外市场是骗局股票的生存之地。把它想象成一个糟糕的社区。在那里会让你成为骗子的标志。</blockquote></p><p> For some background, the OTC market is different from exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where trading is centralized. There is no one OTC exchange. Instead, the OTC connects buyers and sellers over a computer- and telephone-based system. Any stock that does not trade on the NYSE, Nasdaq or other established U.S. exchange can trade over-the-counter. These securities also are known as “unlisted stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>在某些背景下，场外交易市场不同于纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等交易集中的交易所。没有一个OTC交易所。相反，场外交易通过基于计算机和电话的系统将买家和卖家联系起来。任何不在纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克或其他美国成熟交易所交易的股票都可以进行场外交易。这些证券也被称为“非上市股票”。</blockquote></p><p> Typically, OTC stocks tend to be highly risky microcap stocks (the shares of small companies with market capitalizations of under $300 million), which include nanocap stocks (those with market values of under $50 million).</p><p><blockquote>通常，场外交易股票往往是高风险的微型股（市值低于3亿美元的小公司股票），其中包括纳米股（市值低于5000万美元的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> The SEC has long warned investors about the high risks associated with such stocks. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the industry’s self-regulatory agency, likewise waves a red flag over the buying and trading of OTC securities.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会长期以来一直警告投资者此类股票的高风险。该行业的自律机构金融业监管局（FINRA）同样对场外证券的购买和交易发出了危险信号。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because companies that list on the OTC aren’t required to file periodic or audited financial reports as they must do if they are listed on a major exchange, such as the NYSE or the Nasdaq. In other words, there’s no way to know if they’re telling the truth when they claim to have sales and profits. The major exchanges also have listing requirements; OTC stocks don’t. For example, a company must have at least 400 shareholders and a market value of at least $40 million to get a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The OTC makes no such requirements.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为在场外交易市场上市的公司不需要像在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等主要交易所上市的公司那样提交定期或经审计的财务报告。换句话说，当他们声称有销售额和利润时，没有办法知道他们是否在说实话。各大交易所也有上市要求；场外交易股票则不然。例如，一家公司必须拥有至少400名股东且市值至少4000万美元才能在纽约证券交易所上市。OTC没有这样的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Put it all together, and it makes it easier for unscrupulous managers to lie about their business prospects or commit securities fraud.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，这使得无良的管理者更容易谎报业务前景或实施证券欺诈。</blockquote></p><p> But that’s not all. The shares that exchange hands on the OTC tend to be “illiquid,” meaning they often trade in low volumes and have a limited number of buyers and sellers. That can make it difficult or impossible for investors to buy or sell shares at the prices they want.</p><p><blockquote>但这还不是全部。在场外交易的股票往往“缺乏流动性”，这意味着它们的交易量通常很低，买家和卖家数量有限。这可能会使投资者很难或不可能以他们想要的价格买卖股票。</blockquote></p><p> That lack of liquidity also makes many OTC stocks the perfect vehicle for “pump-and-dump” schemes where stock promoters lure investors to buy shares, increasing the stock price. Then, when the price gets high enough, the pumper sells his shares, causing the stock to fall and leaving investors with poor returns, or even losses. Anyone here see&nbsp;<i>The Wolf of Wall Street</i>?</p><p><blockquote>流动性的缺乏也使许多场外交易股票成为“拉高抛售”计划的完美工具，即股票发起人引诱投资者购买股票，从而提高股价。然后，当价格足够高时，抽水者出售他的股票，导致股票下跌，给投资者留下糟糕的回报，甚至亏损。这里有人看到了吗<i>华尔街之狼</i>？</blockquote></p><p> To protect investors from falling for these schemes, the SEC suspended trading of more than 800 microcap stocks – more than 8% of the OTC market – between 2012 and 2015. Once a stock has been suspended from trading, it cannot be relisted unless the company provides updated financial information to prove it’s actually operational. Since that rarely happens, trading suspensions essentially render the shares useless to scam artists.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护投资者不上当受骗，SEC在2012年至2015年间暂停了800多只微型股（占场外交易市场的8%以上）的交易。股票一旦暂停交易，就不能重新上市，除非公司提供最新的财务信息来证明其实际运营。由于这种情况很少发生，交易暂停基本上使股票对诈骗艺术家毫无用处。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Legitimate OTCs</b></h3> Be that as it may, there is one segment of the OTC market that investors need not fear.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>合法OTC</b></h3>尽管如此，场外交易市场的一部分投资者不必担心。</blockquote></p><p> Amidst the riff-raff, some of the biggest, most respected foreign companies in the world list their U.S. shares over-the-counter instead of on the major U.S. exchanges. Here, you’ll find shares of&nbsp;<b>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(IDCBY), which happens to be the biggest bank in the world. You also can buy shares of Switzerland’s<b>Nestlé</b>(NSRGY), the largest food company in the world; China’s&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">Tencent Holding Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(TCEHY), one of the country’s largest internet service providers; and Japanese gaming giant&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">Nintendo Co., Ltd.</a> </b>(NTDOY).</p><p><blockquote>在混混中，一些世界上最大、最受尊敬的外国公司将其美国股票在场外交易而不是在美国主要交易所上市。在这里，您可以找到<b>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">中国工商银行。</a></b>（IDCBY），恰好是世界上最大的银行。您还可以购买瑞士的股票<b>雀巢</b>（NSRGY），全球最大的食品公司；中国的<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">腾讯控股控股有限公司。</a></b>(TCEHY)，该国最大的互联网服务提供商之一；和日本游戏巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">任天堂有限公司。</a></b>（NTDOY）。</blockquote></p><p> Why would major, international publicly traded companies rub shoulders with firms that issue highly speculative penny stocks?</p><p><blockquote>为什么大型国际上市公司会与发行高度投机性细价股的公司合作？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason has to do with cost and convenience. For example, a foreign firm listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq must prepare two sets of audited financial statements for everything it does – one to conform with international accounting standards, and another that adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) used in the U.S. That isn’t a requirement over-the-counter.</p><p><blockquote>原因与成本和便利性有关。例如，在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克上市的外国公司必须为其所做的一切准备两套经审计的财务报表——一套符合国际会计准则，另一套符合公认会计原则(GAAP)在美国，这不是非处方药的要求。</blockquote></p><p> With an OTC listing, a foreign company gains access to the vast pool of U.S. equity investors at a fraction of the cost and effort.</p><p><blockquote>通过场外交易上市，外国公司可以以很低的成本和精力接触到庞大的美国股票投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that with the exception of large, established foreign firms, OTC stocks come with too many risks. It’s not possible for the average investor to know if the company is on the up and up. And even legitimate tiny companies can fail virtually overnight. The pitfalls of trading OTC stocks just aren’t worth it.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，除了大型老牌外国公司，场外交易股票风险太大。普通投资者不可能知道公司是否在上升。即使是合法的小公司也可能在一夜之间倒闭。场外交易股票的陷阱根本不值得。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy enough to lose money investing in stocks. Why make it easier?</p><p><blockquote>投资股票很容易赔钱。为什么要让它更容易？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/603303/penny-stocks-always-stay-away\">Kiplinger</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NTDOY":"任天堂","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","IDCBY":"工商银行ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/603303/penny-stocks-always-stay-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172699620","content_text":"Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar per share – are dangerous. Period. Indeed, with a few exceptions, investors should steer clear of these uber-cheap stocks, which typically trade over-the-counter and not on a major exchange.\nCall them penny stocks, microcaps or OTC stocks; by any name, they’re bad news. Promises of quick and easy riches are easier to fall for when an investment can be made with so little money up front. An investor might think, \"How risky could it be?\"\nPlenty. Per the Securities and Exchange Commission: “Academic studies find that OTC stocks tend to be highly illiquid; are frequent targets of alleged market manipulation; generate negative and volatile investment returns on average; and rarely grow into a large company or transition to listing on a stock exchange.”\nWe’ll break down what all that means below, but suffice to say, the SEC is not a fan.\nWhy Penny Stocks Are So Dangerous\nTo be clear, this is not to say that every penny stock or OTC company is a scam. The danger is that the over-the-counter market is where the scam stocks live. Think of it as a bad neighborhood. Being there can make you a mark for a con.\nFor some background, the OTC market is different from exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where trading is centralized. There is no one OTC exchange. Instead, the OTC connects buyers and sellers over a computer- and telephone-based system. Any stock that does not trade on the NYSE, Nasdaq or other established U.S. exchange can trade over-the-counter. These securities also are known as “unlisted stocks.”\nTypically, OTC stocks tend to be highly risky microcap stocks (the shares of small companies with market capitalizations of under $300 million), which include nanocap stocks (those with market values of under $50 million).\nThe SEC has long warned investors about the high risks associated with such stocks. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the industry’s self-regulatory agency, likewise waves a red flag over the buying and trading of OTC securities.\nThat’s because companies that list on the OTC aren’t required to file periodic or audited financial reports as they must do if they are listed on a major exchange, such as the NYSE or the Nasdaq. In other words, there’s no way to know if they’re telling the truth when they claim to have sales and profits. The major exchanges also have listing requirements; OTC stocks don’t. For example, a company must have at least 400 shareholders and a market value of at least $40 million to get a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The OTC makes no such requirements.\nPut it all together, and it makes it easier for unscrupulous managers to lie about their business prospects or commit securities fraud.\nBut that’s not all. The shares that exchange hands on the OTC tend to be “illiquid,” meaning they often trade in low volumes and have a limited number of buyers and sellers. That can make it difficult or impossible for investors to buy or sell shares at the prices they want.\nThat lack of liquidity also makes many OTC stocks the perfect vehicle for “pump-and-dump” schemes where stock promoters lure investors to buy shares, increasing the stock price. Then, when the price gets high enough, the pumper sells his shares, causing the stock to fall and leaving investors with poor returns, or even losses. Anyone here see The Wolf of Wall Street?\nTo protect investors from falling for these schemes, the SEC suspended trading of more than 800 microcap stocks – more than 8% of the OTC market – between 2012 and 2015. Once a stock has been suspended from trading, it cannot be relisted unless the company provides updated financial information to prove it’s actually operational. Since that rarely happens, trading suspensions essentially render the shares useless to scam artists.\nLegitimate OTCs\nBe that as it may, there is one segment of the OTC market that investors need not fear.\nAmidst the riff-raff, some of the biggest, most respected foreign companies in the world list their U.S. shares over-the-counter instead of on the major U.S. exchanges. Here, you’ll find shares of The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (IDCBY), which happens to be the biggest bank in the world. You also can buy shares of Switzerland’sNestlé(NSRGY), the largest food company in the world; China’s Tencent Holding Ltd. (TCEHY), one of the country’s largest internet service providers; and Japanese gaming giant Nintendo Co., Ltd. (NTDOY).\nWhy would major, international publicly traded companies rub shoulders with firms that issue highly speculative penny stocks?\nThe reason has to do with cost and convenience. For example, a foreign firm listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq must prepare two sets of audited financial statements for everything it does – one to conform with international accounting standards, and another that adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) used in the U.S. That isn’t a requirement over-the-counter.\nWith an OTC listing, a foreign company gains access to the vast pool of U.S. equity investors at a fraction of the cost and effort.\nThe bottom line is that with the exception of large, established foreign firms, OTC stocks come with too many risks. It’s not possible for the average investor to know if the company is on the up and up. And even legitimate tiny companies can fail virtually overnight. The pitfalls of trading OTC stocks just aren’t worth it.\nIt’s easy enough to lose money investing in stocks. Why make it easier?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":0.9,"NTDOY":0.9,"IDCBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864244853,"gmtCreate":1633123723364,"gmtModify":1633123723760,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","text":"Interesting choices 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864244853","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883111049,"gmtCreate":1631225268381,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883111049","repostId":"2166317474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889563744,"gmtCreate":1631159132288,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","listText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","text":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889563744","repostId":"1138338668","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":865339222,"gmtCreate":1632950152696,"gmtModify":1632950153088,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"So much good options! [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865339222","repostId":"2171984641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"content":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","text":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","html":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868389953,"gmtCreate":1632608695272,"gmtModify":1632653975170,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","listText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","text":"Added to watchlist [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868389953","repostId":"1188909032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188909032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632531451,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188909032?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-25 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021年10月之前值得关注的5只顶级消费股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188909032","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to","content":"<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在关注这些顶级消费股吗？</blockquote></p><p> The past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，过去的交易周令人兴奋。尽管经历了大起大落，消费类股今天继续在股市上掀起波澜。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是以消费者为中心的行业现在继续保持强劲。这一点很明显，8月份零售额数据超出预期，增长0.7%，而预期下降0.8%。此外，当前股市的广泛反弹可能表明投资者对经济的信心正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Evidently, we could look at the likes of<b>Roku</b>(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们可以看看<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）现在。就在昨天，古根海姆分析师迈克尔·莫里斯提供了该股的积极更新。也就是说，Morris给予ROKU股票买入评级，目标价为395美元。Morris将Roku对其原创内容的积极扩张和对国际市场的渗透作为升级的核心原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there is some interesting movement going on with<b>Nike’s</b>(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，有一些有趣的运动正在进行<b>耐克的</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NKE）的股票也是如此。昨天，该公司在收盘后公布了第一季度财报。简而言之，耐克报告本季度每股收益为1.16美元，营收为122.5亿美元。相比之下，估计为11.1亿美元和124.6亿美元。投资者似乎关注耐克的营收下滑，这主要是由于暂时的供应链压力。无论如何，作为全球运动服装行业最大的品牌之一，一些人可能会从NKE股票当前的疲软中看到机会。鉴于目前该领域的所有活动，这些消费股中的一只值得投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> Best Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today</p><p><blockquote>今天最值得买入[或卖出]的消费股</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Beyond Meat Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: BYND)</li>  <li><b>Trip.com Group Ltd.</b>(NASDAQ: TCOM)</li>  <li><b>Vail Resorts Inc.</b>(NYSE: MTN)</li>  <li><b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>(NASDAQ: COST)</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: SFIX)</li> </ul> Beyond Meat Inc.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Beyond Meat公司。</b>（纳斯达克：BYND）</li><li><b>携程集团有限公司。</b>（纳斯达克：TCOM）</li><li><b>韦尔度假村公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MTN）</li><li><b>好市多批发公司</b>（纳斯达克：成本）</li><li><b>缝合修复公司。</b>（纳斯达克：SFIX）</li></ul>Beyond Meat公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat</b>is a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat</b>是一家植物性肉类替代品零售商，总部位于加利福尼亚州。该公司提供牛肉、家禽和猪肉类别的植物性选择。事实上，随着越来越多的人越来越多地转向植物性食品，它是美国发展最快的食品公司之一。它的产品被设计成具有与动物性肉类相同的味道和质地，同时也是更好的环境选择。自大流行时代低点以来，BYND股票的估值几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> In August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?</p><p><blockquote>8月，该公司公布了第二季度财务数据。该季度净收入为1.494亿美元，同比增长31.8%。此外，该季度毛利润为4740万美元。该公司实现了创纪录的净收入，并且随着客户欢迎消费者回到他们的场所，餐饮服务行业也继续恢复增长。该公司并没有固步自封，还继续为其在美国和海外的长期增长进行大量投资。鉴于所有这些，您现在会考虑投资BYND股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875119289e70dc28e620fb5eeb2d291b\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOS</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读更多]</b>今天买什么股票？5只值得关注的科技股</blockquote></p><p> Trip.com Group Ltd</p><p><blockquote>携程集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Following that, we have multinational online travel company<b>Trip.com</b>, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有跨国在线旅游公司<b>Trip.com</b>，全球领先的一站式旅游平台。它整合了一套全面的旅游产品和服务以及差异化的旅游内容。它是中国和世界各地游客的首选目的地。令人印象深刻的是，它是目前中国最大的在线旅行社之一，也是全球最大的旅游服务提供商之一。</blockquote></p><p> After yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?</p><p><blockquote>昨天收盘后，携程在第二财季财报中公布了稳健的数据。该公司本季度总收入为9.12亿美元。这标志着同比大幅增长86%。净利润方面，该公司同期增长了43%。首席执行官Jane Sun表示，携程对国内市场的关注是该公司本季度业绩强劲的核心贡献者。总体而言，鉴于这条消息，您现在会考虑将TCOM股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781e08ea2e30a4f9c94020727b3e77bc\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOSVail Resorts Inc.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts</b>is a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村</b>是全球领先的山地度假村运营商。该公司及其子公司经营着37个目的地山地度假村和区域滑雪场。本质上，它拥有和/或管理RockResorts品牌下的一系列休闲优雅的酒店。它还拥有一家从事房地产规划和开发业务的开发公司。仅去年一年，MTN股价就上涨了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Recently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?</p><p><blockquote>最近，KeyBanc Capital Markets将Vail Resorts的评级从行业权重上调至跑赢大盘，并将其目标价定为355美元。分析师布雷特·安德烈亚斯表示，滑雪度假的需求超出了预期，一些预订量已经达到创纪录水平。更不用说，该公司在财务方面继续获得动力。在第四财季收益看涨期权中，韦尔公布净利润为1.279亿美元，同比大幅增长29.4%。在考虑到大流行相关因素仍然拖累其关键业务后，该公司的基本面令人钦佩。此外，该公司还宣布派发每股0.88美元的现金股息，令投资者感到高兴。综合考虑，您会购买MTN股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c596fd2c2dc3ef4d15e9c9dfa89b8147\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOS</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读更多]</b>目前值得关注的4只半导体股票</blockquote></p><p> Costco Wholesale Corporation</p><p><blockquote>好市多批发公司</blockquote></p><p> Next up, we will be taking a look at<b>Costco</b>. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们将看看<b>Costco</b>在很大程度上，这家跨国消费品巨头将是当今股市中另一个值得考虑的参与者。Costco区别于零售竞争对手的主要因素是其仅限会员的大卖场业务。简单来说，公司只迎合会员，散装销售日用品。在持续的大流行和气候危机中，好市多的产品可能会受到消费者更大的需求。</blockquote></p><p> By and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，成本股今年迄今的涨幅超过19%，值得投资吗？一方面，该公司在最新的季度收益报告中全面超出了华尔街的预测。具体而言，Costco公布本季度每股收益为3.76美元，营收为627亿美元。从某种角度来看，普遍预期每股收益为3.59美元，营收为616亿美元。总而言之，您会考虑将成本股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0412ae414ccd0df0d5f93302bd037b56\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOS</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读更多]</b>现在最值得购买的股票？值得您关注的4只可再生能源股票</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix Inc.</p><p><blockquote>缝合修复公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another name to know in the consumer stock space now would be<b>Stitch Fix</b>. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费股领域中另一个值得了解的名字是<b>缝合固定</b>简而言之，它是一种在线个人造型服务。通过人工智能和数据科学的结合，Stitch Fix为客户提供个性化的电子商务体验。鉴于在线购物在整个大流行期间的盛行，SFIX股票可能会成为投资者关注的焦点。事实上，由于其稳健的盈利报告，该公司股价仅本周就上涨了15%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Stitch Fix本季度总收入为5.7116亿美元，同比增长28%。此外，该公司还报告称，其净利润和每股收益同比大幅增长超过145%。尽管在这些方面超出了分析师的预期，但Stitch Fix似乎不会很快放缓。这似乎是因为该公司正在通过Stitch Fix Freestyle扩展其服务，这是一种“差异化的购物体验”。这将为客户提供一种更即时、更灵活的方式在其平台上购物。因此，SFIX股票现在能成为股市的首选吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021年10月之前值得关注的5只顶级消费股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021年10月之前值得关注的5只顶级消费股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-25 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在关注这些顶级消费股吗？</blockquote></p><p> The past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，过去的交易周令人兴奋。尽管经历了大起大落，消费类股今天继续在股市上掀起波澜。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是以消费者为中心的行业现在继续保持强劲。这一点很明显，8月份零售额数据超出预期，增长0.7%，而预期下降0.8%。此外，当前股市的广泛反弹可能表明投资者对经济的信心正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Evidently, we could look at the likes of<b>Roku</b>(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们可以看看<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）现在。就在昨天，古根海姆分析师迈克尔·莫里斯提供了该股的积极更新。也就是说，Morris给予ROKU股票买入评级，目标价为395美元。Morris将Roku对其原创内容的积极扩张和对国际市场的渗透作为升级的核心原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there is some interesting movement going on with<b>Nike’s</b>(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，有一些有趣的运动正在进行<b>耐克的</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NKE）的股票也是如此。昨天，该公司在收盘后公布了第一季度财报。简而言之，耐克报告本季度每股收益为1.16美元，营收为122.5亿美元。相比之下，估计为11.1亿美元和124.6亿美元。投资者似乎关注耐克的营收下滑，这主要是由于暂时的供应链压力。无论如何，作为全球运动服装行业最大的品牌之一，一些人可能会从NKE股票当前的疲软中看到机会。鉴于目前该领域的所有活动，这些消费股中的一只值得投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> Best Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today</p><p><blockquote>今天最值得买入[或卖出]的消费股</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Beyond Meat Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: BYND)</li>  <li><b>Trip.com Group Ltd.</b>(NASDAQ: TCOM)</li>  <li><b>Vail Resorts Inc.</b>(NYSE: MTN)</li>  <li><b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>(NASDAQ: COST)</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: SFIX)</li> </ul> Beyond Meat Inc.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Beyond Meat公司。</b>（纳斯达克：BYND）</li><li><b>携程集团有限公司。</b>（纳斯达克：TCOM）</li><li><b>韦尔度假村公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MTN）</li><li><b>好市多批发公司</b>（纳斯达克：成本）</li><li><b>缝合修复公司。</b>（纳斯达克：SFIX）</li></ul>Beyond Meat公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat</b>is a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat</b>是一家植物性肉类替代品零售商，总部位于加利福尼亚州。该公司提供牛肉、家禽和猪肉类别的植物性选择。事实上，随着越来越多的人越来越多地转向植物性食品，它是美国发展最快的食品公司之一。它的产品被设计成具有与动物性肉类相同的味道和质地，同时也是更好的环境选择。自大流行时代低点以来，BYND股票的估值几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> In August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?</p><p><blockquote>8月，该公司公布了第二季度财务数据。该季度净收入为1.494亿美元，同比增长31.8%。此外，该季度毛利润为4740万美元。该公司实现了创纪录的净收入，并且随着客户欢迎消费者回到他们的场所，餐饮服务行业也继续恢复增长。该公司并没有固步自封，还继续为其在美国和海外的长期增长进行大量投资。鉴于所有这些，您现在会考虑投资BYND股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875119289e70dc28e620fb5eeb2d291b\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOS</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读更多]</b>今天买什么股票？5只值得关注的科技股</blockquote></p><p> Trip.com Group Ltd</p><p><blockquote>携程集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Following that, we have multinational online travel company<b>Trip.com</b>, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有跨国在线旅游公司<b>Trip.com</b>，全球领先的一站式旅游平台。它整合了一套全面的旅游产品和服务以及差异化的旅游内容。它是中国和世界各地游客的首选目的地。令人印象深刻的是，它是目前中国最大的在线旅行社之一，也是全球最大的旅游服务提供商之一。</blockquote></p><p> After yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?</p><p><blockquote>昨天收盘后，携程在第二财季财报中公布了稳健的数据。该公司本季度总收入为9.12亿美元。这标志着同比大幅增长86%。净利润方面，该公司同期增长了43%。首席执行官Jane Sun表示，携程对国内市场的关注是该公司本季度业绩强劲的核心贡献者。总体而言，鉴于这条消息，您现在会考虑将TCOM股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781e08ea2e30a4f9c94020727b3e77bc\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOSVail Resorts Inc.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts</b>is a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村</b>是全球领先的山地度假村运营商。该公司及其子公司经营着37个目的地山地度假村和区域滑雪场。本质上，它拥有和/或管理RockResorts品牌下的一系列休闲优雅的酒店。它还拥有一家从事房地产规划和开发业务的开发公司。仅去年一年，MTN股价就上涨了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Recently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?</p><p><blockquote>最近，KeyBanc Capital Markets将Vail Resorts的评级从行业权重上调至跑赢大盘，并将其目标价定为355美元。分析师布雷特·安德烈亚斯表示，滑雪度假的需求超出了预期，一些预订量已经达到创纪录水平。更不用说，该公司在财务方面继续获得动力。在第四财季收益看涨期权中，韦尔公布净利润为1.279亿美元，同比大幅增长29.4%。在考虑到大流行相关因素仍然拖累其关键业务后，该公司的基本面令人钦佩。此外，该公司还宣布派发每股0.88美元的现金股息，令投资者感到高兴。综合考虑，您会购买MTN股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c596fd2c2dc3ef4d15e9c9dfa89b8147\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOS</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读更多]</b>目前值得关注的4只半导体股票</blockquote></p><p> Costco Wholesale Corporation</p><p><blockquote>好市多批发公司</blockquote></p><p> Next up, we will be taking a look at<b>Costco</b>. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们将看看<b>Costco</b>在很大程度上，这家跨国消费品巨头将是当今股市中另一个值得考虑的参与者。Costco区别于零售竞争对手的主要因素是其仅限会员的大卖场业务。简单来说，公司只迎合会员，散装销售日用品。在持续的大流行和气候危机中，好市多的产品可能会受到消费者更大的需求。</blockquote></p><p> By and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，成本股今年迄今的涨幅超过19%，值得投资吗？一方面，该公司在最新的季度收益报告中全面超出了华尔街的预测。具体而言，Costco公布本季度每股收益为3.76美元，营收为627亿美元。从某种角度来看，普遍预期每股收益为3.59美元，营收为616亿美元。总而言之，您会考虑将成本股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0412ae414ccd0df0d5f93302bd037b56\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券TOS</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读更多]</b>现在最值得购买的股票？值得您关注的4只可再生能源股票</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix Inc.</p><p><blockquote>缝合修复公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another name to know in the consumer stock space now would be<b>Stitch Fix</b>. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费股领域中另一个值得了解的名字是<b>缝合固定</b>简而言之，它是一种在线个人造型服务。通过人工智能和数据科学的结合，Stitch Fix为客户提供个性化的电子商务体验。鉴于在线购物在整个大流行期间的盛行，SFIX股票可能会成为投资者关注的焦点。事实上，由于其稳健的盈利报告，该公司股价仅本周就上涨了15%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Stitch Fix本季度总收入为5.7116亿美元，同比增长28%。此外，该公司还报告称，其净利润和每股收益同比大幅增长超过145%。尽管在这些方面超出了分析师的预期，但Stitch Fix似乎不会很快放缓。这似乎是因为该公司正在通过Stitch Fix Freestyle扩展其服务，这是一种“差异化的购物体验”。这将为客户提供一种更即时、更灵活的方式在其平台上购物。因此，SFIX股票现在能成为股市的首选吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","ROKU":"Roku Inc","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","COST":"好市多","TCOM":"携程网"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188909032","content_text":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.\nEvidently, we could look at the likes ofRoku(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.\nAt the same time, there is some interesting movement going on withNike’s(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?\nBest Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.(NASDAQ: BYND)\nTrip.com Group Ltd.(NASDAQ: TCOM)\nVail Resorts Inc.(NYSE: MTN)\nCostco Wholesale Corporation(NASDAQ: COST)\nStitch Fix Inc.(NASDAQ: SFIX)\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.\nBeyond Meatis a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.\nIn August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch\nTrip.com Group Ltd\nFollowing that, we have multinational online travel companyTrip.com, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.\nAfter yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.\nVail Resortsis a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.\nRecently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] 4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now\nCostco Wholesale Corporation\nNext up, we will be taking a look atCostco. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.\nBy and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist\nStitch Fix Inc.\nAnother name to know in the consumer stock space now would beStitch Fix. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.\nNotably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCOM":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"BYND":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":179369471,"gmtCreate":1626486989493,"gmtModify":1633926335380,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hold on tight. It will go back up 🙏🏼","listText":"Hold on tight. It will go back up 🙏🏼","text":"Hold on tight. It will go back up 🙏🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179369471","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863705575,"gmtCreate":1632432667697,"gmtModify":1632728586616,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","listText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","text":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863705575","repostId":"2169667599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817206382,"gmtCreate":1630964991446,"gmtModify":1631889375510,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Great tips [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817206382","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}