刚冒芽的韭黄online的个人主页 - 老虎社区

刚冒芽的韭黄online

刚冒芽的韭黄online

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IP属地：北京

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01-12

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2022-10-08

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2022-12-29

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2022-07-15

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刚冒芽的韭黄online

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| 白银牛市结束？特朗普关税刹车，三种策略应对极端波动","htmlText":"白银相关ETF夜盘和盘前集体重挫。夜盘交易中：iShares 白银ETF（SLV）盘中跌幅一度超7%；2倍做多白银ETF ProShares（AGQ）一度暴跌 14%；而2倍做空白银ETF ProShares（ZSL）大涨15%，多空分化明显。消息面上，美国总统特朗普周三发布公告称，将暂缓对部分关键矿产加征关税，转而通过与外国谈判的方式，确保美国获得稳定的关键矿产供应，并降低供应链脆弱性。特朗普同时提出，未来或对特定关键矿产设定最低进口价格，而不再仅依赖按比例征收关税，以配合与盟友共同构建相关原材料供应链。在关税政策“急刹车”的背景下，市场开始重新评估此前因供应收紧预期而大幅上涨的白银行情。美国进口商前期囤积的库存是否集中释放、对白银价格形成压制，成为新的不确定因素。随着波动显著放大，白银这一轮史诗级牛市是否已接近阶段性顶部，也引发投资者激烈讨论。在此背景下，如何通过期权策略应对剧烈波动、控制风险，成为当前白银交易中更为关键的考量。一、情景一：看涨，但担心追高风险策略：牛市看涨价差（Bull Call Spread）构造买入 1 张 2月13日到期、行权价为86美元的SLV 看涨期权（Call）卖出 1 张 同到期日、行权价为87美元的 SLV看涨期权<a href=\"https://ttm.financialhttps://tigr.link/s/50DYk7M\" target=\"_blank\">$SLV 跨价 260213 86C/87C$</a>逻辑全球地缘政治局势可能持续恶化，尤其是委内瑞拉、古巴与伊朗国内持续陷入动荡；但短期涨幅过大，隐含波动率较高，直接买 Call 成本偏贵；通过卖出更高执行价的 Call，对冲一部分时间价值与波动率溢价。收益结构最大亏损：32.5最大收益：67.5盈利条件：股价上升至高于86.33风险若股价暴涨超过上方执行价，上行收益被封顶；若","listText":"白银相关ETF夜盘和盘前集体重挫。夜盘交易中：iShares 白银ETF（SLV）盘中跌幅一度超7%；2倍做多白银ETF ProShares（AGQ）一度暴跌 14%；而2倍做空白银ETF ProShares（ZSL）大涨15%，多空分化明显。消息面上，美国总统特朗普周三发布公告称，将暂缓对部分关键矿产加征关税，转而通过与外国谈判的方式，确保美国获得稳定的关键矿产供应，并降低供应链脆弱性。特朗普同时提出，未来或对特定关键矿产设定最低进口价格，而不再仅依赖按比例征收关税，以配合与盟友共同构建相关原材料供应链。在关税政策“急刹车”的背景下，市场开始重新评估此前因供应收紧预期而大幅上涨的白银行情。美国进口商前期囤积的库存是否集中释放、对白银价格形成压制，成为新的不确定因素。随着波动显著放大，白银这一轮史诗级牛市是否已接近阶段性顶部，也引发投资者激烈讨论。在此背景下，如何通过期权策略应对剧烈波动、控制风险，成为当前白银交易中更为关键的考量。一、情景一：看涨，但担心追高风险策略：牛市看涨价差（Bull Call Spread）构造买入 1 张 2月13日到期、行权价为86美元的SLV 看涨期权（Call）卖出 1 张 同到期日、行权价为87美元的 SLV看涨期权<a href=\"https://ttm.financialhttps://tigr.link/s/50DYk7M\" target=\"_blank\">$SLV 跨价 260213 86C/87C$</a>逻辑全球地缘政治局势可能持续恶化，尤其是委内瑞拉、古巴与伊朗国内持续陷入动荡；但短期涨幅过大，隐含波动率较高，直接买 Call 成本偏贵；通过卖出更高执行价的 Call，对冲一部分时间价值与波动率溢价。收益结构最大亏损：32.5最大收益：67.5盈利条件：股价上升至高于86.33风险若股价暴涨超过上方执行价，上行收益被封顶；若","text":"白银相关ETF夜盘和盘前集体重挫。夜盘交易中：iShares 白银ETF（SLV）盘中跌幅一度超7%；2倍做多白银ETF ProShares（AGQ）一度暴跌 14%；而2倍做空白银ETF 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it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511597206377408","repostId":"1111148344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111148344","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1765927126,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111148344?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-17 07:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Waymo据报洽谈以约1000亿美元估值集资","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111148344","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据The Information报道，谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下自动驾驶的士业务公司Waymo，洽谈以约1000亿美元估值进行集资。彭博消息称，Waymo预计在2026年年初进行新一轮集资，集资规模可能超过150亿美元，本轮集资将由Alphabet领投。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据The 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWaymo据报洽谈以约1000亿美元估值集资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-17 07:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据The Information报道，谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下自动驾驶的士业务公司Waymo，洽谈以约1000亿美元估值进行集资。</p><p>彭博消息称，Waymo预计在2026年年初进行新一轮集资，集资规模可能超过150亿美元，本轮集资将由Alphabet领投。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc2177e2e368b578bdaa674f65ce2424","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111148344","content_text":"据The Information报道，谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下自动驾驶的士业务公司Waymo，洽谈以约1000亿美元估值进行集资。彭博消息称，Waymo预计在2026年年初进行新一轮集资，集资规模可能超过150亿美元，本轮集资将由Alphabet领投。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":2,"GOOG":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":509242584728368,"gmtCreate":1765358152675,"gmtModify":1765358154659,"author":{"id":"3586481422097138","authorId":"3586481422097138","name":"刚冒芽的韭黄online","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8dfcef1a2cdadac4caca36dc61df62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586481422097138","idStr":"3586481422097138"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509242584728368","repostId":"1189771550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189771550","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765326224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189771550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-10 08:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"涨势远超黄金！白银站上60美元，发生了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189771550","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降息25个基点。除了传统的产需缺口外，美国地质调查局上个月将白银列入“关键矿产”清单，这一举措加剧了市场对供应稳定的担忧，引发囤货潮。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。美联储降息预期、供应短缺，以及因被列入美国“关键矿产”清单引发的囤积效应等因素，共同推升白银价格走高。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纽约期货价格上涨4.4%，至每盎司60.97美元，盘中一度触及每盎司61.06美元的高点；现货价格上涨3.9%，至每盎司60.46美元，盘中一度触及每盎司60.50美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c0a3fb205c5f3ed5936a8217270120\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致<strong>金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db2d1efa650223d4b75d948621a29dd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"580\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">引发本轮行情的直接导火索是美联储的货币政策会议。市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降息25个基点。更为关键的结构性驱动力来自于供应端的剧烈收缩。除了传统的产需缺口外，美国地质调查局上个月将白银列入“关键矿产”清单，这一举措加剧了市场对供应稳定的担忧，引发囤货潮。</p><h2 id=\"id_2348376846\" style=\"text-align: left;\">降息预期叠加供应紧张推动白银价格飙升</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">隔夜发布的职位空缺（JOLTS）数据略好于预期，导致美联储降息概率微降至87.4%，但这并未阻碍贵金属的上涨步伐。借贷成本的降低通常利好不产生收益的贵金属资产，投资者正因担忧西方主要经济体的债务水平和货币贬值风险而涌入该市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管白银通常跟随黄金走势，但其较小的市场规模使其波动性更大，且对美元汇率变动更为敏感。对于寻求价格合理的避险资产的投资者而言，相比于已处于历史高位的黄金，白银显得更为便宜且具吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>此外，供应短缺正成为支撑银价的核心逻辑。除了因被列入美国“关键矿产”清单引发的资金涌入和囤积效应外，物理市场的紧张局势尚未缓解。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博观察，尽管伦敦金库的资金流入使10月份的历史性供应挤压有所缓解，但其他市场正面临严重的供应限制。目前中国的白银库存已处于十年来的低点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Silver Institute（白银协会）指出，由于产量受限而工业和投资需求持续上升，预计2025年白银市场将连续第五年出现年度赤字。ING的大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey强调了白银供应的“结构性缺乏弹性”：全球约70-80%的白银产量是铅、锌、铜或金矿开采的副产品。这意味着，除非主要金属的价格也能支撑更高的产量，否则即使银价飙升，供应也无法迅速扩大。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sprott Asset Management的高级投资组合经理Maria Smirnova直言，<strong>除非解决赤字问题，否则白银价格“只有一条路可走，那就是上涨”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">RJO Futures的高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn指出，目前的黄金走势在一定程度上归因于白银的暴涨，他预计白银有望在2026年上半年突破每盎司70美元，而黄金正朝着5000美元迈进。</p><h2 id=\"id_818387780\" style=\"text-align: left;\">工业需求强势支撑</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了金融属性，白银强劲的工业属性也为其提供了坚实的底部支撑。根据Silver Institute的研究，直到2030年，太阳能、电动汽车及其基础设施、数据中心和人工智能（AI）领域的蓬勃发展将持续推动工业需求走高。City Index和FOREX.com的市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada表示，人们预期未来几年白银的工业需求将保持强劲，这是推高银价的重要原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，白银还在更广泛的电气化进程、电网升级以及混合动力和纯电动汽车中发挥关键作用。在这些长期结构性利好的背景下，结合美联储的宽松政策和地缘政治紧张局势，市场观点普遍认为白银正处于长期牛市之中。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n涨势远超黄金！白银站上60美元，发生了什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-10 08:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761054><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。美联储降息预期、供应短缺，以及因被列入美国“关键矿产”清单引发的囤积效应等因素，共同推升白银价格走高。受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761054\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26334bf6f4e25ca891e786d2e0bdfb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761054","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189771550","content_text":"今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，远超黄金60%涨幅，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。美联储降息预期、供应短缺，以及因被列入美国“关键矿产”清单引发的囤积效应等因素，共同推升白银价格走高。受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国关键矿产清单等多重因素推动，白银价格周二强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。今年以来，白银涨幅已接近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。纽约期货价格上涨4.4%，至每盎司60.97美元，盘中一度触及每盎司61.06美元的高点；现货价格上涨3.9%，至每盎司60.46美元，盘中一度触及每盎司60.50美元。作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。引发本轮行情的直接导火索是美联储的货币政策会议。市场普遍押注美联储将在本周三结束的会议上宣布降息25个基点。更为关键的结构性驱动力来自于供应端的剧烈收缩。除了传统的产需缺口外，美国地质调查局上个月将白银列入“关键矿产”清单，这一举措加剧了市场对供应稳定的担忧，引发囤货潮。降息预期叠加供应紧张推动白银价格飙升隔夜发布的职位空缺（JOLTS）数据略好于预期，导致美联储降息概率微降至87.4%，但这并未阻碍贵金属的上涨步伐。借贷成本的降低通常利好不产生收益的贵金属资产，投资者正因担忧西方主要经济体的债务水平和货币贬值风险而涌入该市场。尽管白银通常跟随黄金走势，但其较小的市场规模使其波动性更大，且对美元汇率变动更为敏感。对于寻求价格合理的避险资产的投资者而言，相比于已处于历史高位的黄金，白银显得更为便宜且具吸引力。此外，供应短缺正成为支撑银价的核心逻辑。除了因被列入美国“关键矿产”清单引发的资金涌入和囤积效应外，物理市场的紧张局势尚未缓解。据彭博观察，尽管伦敦金库的资金流入使10月份的历史性供应挤压有所缓解，但其他市场正面临严重的供应限制。目前中国的白银库存已处于十年来的低点。Silver 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10:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一文读懂星舰“十一飞”：二代星舰谢幕，“筷子夹飞船”就要来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193533554","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"和前几次基本一致，测试星链卫星模拟器部署，模拟器将与飞船位于同一亚轨道，预计在进入大气层后失效。星舰十一飞组合体相关信息，来源@vikranthjonna 02第二代星舰的最后一次“表演”到目前为止，星舰总计发射了11次，其中前6次由第一代星舰执行，“七飞”及之后的5次飞行更换为第二代星舰。过去一代和二代星舰讨论最多的就是“筷子夹火箭”，未来还将出现“筷子夹火箭”和“筷子夹飞船”的全塔式回收。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间10月14日，马斯克旗下SpaceX进行星舰第十一次综合飞行测试（以下简称“十一飞”），其中<strong>超重型助推器目前顺利完成着陆燃烧阶段的各项配置和动力测试，之后关机坠海。飞船也顺利完成了有效载荷部署、返场机动等关键任务，成功溅落印度洋。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次飞行的星舰组合体由S38飞船和B15.2超重型二手助推器（八飞B15助推器）构成，也是第二代星舰的最后一次飞行测试。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX对“十一飞”的定位很明确：以“十飞”测试为基础进行进一步测试，为第三代星舰超重型助推器收集着陆燃烧配置和动力数据，对飞船的隔热瓦进行压力测试以及飞船返回发射场相关的太空点火、返场机动和导航优化等测试。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e333888cea4cbc44561a7a7c52096\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">位于发射塔上的S38B15.2星舰组合体，来源：SpaceX</p><h2 id=\"id_2066533579\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">01</h2><h2 id=\"id_2146117592\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">核心任务：为第三代星舰铺路，为飞船返场做准备</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰“十一飞”使用的B15.2超重型助推器，是此前八飞助推器的复用，<strong>33台V2版猛禽发动机中的24台属于重复使用，这也是降本的关键点。</strong>助推器的核心目标是验证下一代星舰助推器着陆燃烧阶段的配置，尤其是在不同飞行阶段切换时，发动机启停的不同动力数据，包括：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">● 着陆燃烧初始阶段点燃13台发动机</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">● 转向阶段切换为5台发动机，<strong>模拟路径微调机动至发射塔过程中的发动机配置</strong>（第二代星舰为3台发动机配置）</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">● 着陆燃烧结束后切换为3台中央发动机，并在海平面上进入完全悬停状态，模拟筷子夹火箭过程中的发动机配置，之后<strong>关机坠入美国湾（墨西哥湾），不安排回收</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">SpaceX解释称，第三代星舰超重型助推器设计的基准配置就是5台发动机，用于微调助推器飞行路径，进而为发动机的关闭提供额外冗余。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c528a7eb4efed3e19b3875eb98eb14bf\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"489\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">星舰亚轨道飞行主要阶段示意图 来源：SpaceX</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">星舰的二级飞船S38相关验证，核心是为后续返场做准备（发射出去还得安全返回），但此次也不回收，而是溅落印度洋，验证任务包括：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">● <strong>动态倾斜机动测试。</strong>即着陆燃烧和溅落前（再入末段），测试动态倾斜机动和亚音速制导算法的性能，实现对飞船的精准控制，避免偏航。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">● <strong>发动机太空点火稳定性、可靠性测试。</strong>太空真空环境下重新点火一台猛禽发动机的稳定性、可靠性测试（十飞已经成功）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">● <strong>隔热极限测试。</strong>再次移除部分隔热瓦，部分区域裸露未设置用于吸热的备用烧蚀层，对飞船再入阶段燃烧进行极限测试（不断地降本）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">● <strong>载荷部署测试。</strong>和前几次基本一致，测试星链卫星模拟器部署（“十飞”已经成功），模拟器将与飞船位于同一亚轨道，预计在进入大气层后失效。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，SpaceX副总裁格斯滕迈尔（负责建造和飞行可靠性测试）此前表示，“十一飞”的飞船在隔热瓦外层包裹了一层“脆皮覆膜”，以便于填充隔热瓦缝隙，替代之前的填缝材料，一个是提升隔热性能，另一个则是减少贴隔热瓦、填缝的时间，提高复用效率。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0574d40123d6681db1a3e85e19731010\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1778\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">星舰十一飞组合体相关信息，来源@vikranthjonna </p><h2 id=\"id_1467249831\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">02</h2><h2 id=\"id_3861560732\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二代星舰的最后一次“表演”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到目前为止，星舰总计发射了11次，其中前6次由第一代星舰执行，“七飞”及之后的5次飞行更换为第二代星舰。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次飞行测试之前，SpaceX就进行了预告：字面上很明确，<strong>Starbase Pad 1（PAD A）发射台当前配置——第二代星舰——最后一次发射。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据之前的统计，“七飞”和“十飞”部分完成任务，“八飞”和“九飞”则完全成功，本次“十一飞”也非常顺利，第二代星舰的再入和回收能力相比第一代有明显提升，其中包括隔热性能极限验证、有效载荷部署以及猛禽发动机太空点火等，这些是未来第三代星舰完全回收、重复利用和商业化的关键。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1de8f136cfa9cd84fcc9e9752f05006b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"820\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着第三代星舰相关配置，包括设计、结构和重量的改变，也就意味着Starbase Pad 1发射台需要进行改造。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，Pad 2（Pad B）以及位于佛罗里达肯尼迪航天中心的L39A发射台也将在未来投入飞行测试（多发射场是未来高频发射的关键）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外补充一点，发射场的增加也要求当地的制造工厂（Starship Starfactory）和总装车间（Megabay）的增加。目前，佛州和得州的总装车间都在扩建，佛州的总装车间起重能力大幅提升，预计2026年年底投入使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在佛州的制造工厂落成前，星舰将继续在得州博卡奇卡的工厂制造，然后通过驳船运输到佛州总装发射。</p><h2 id=\"id_2628946523\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">03</h2><h2 id=\"id_2639417806\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三代星舰组合体</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克在今年3月份披露过，第三代星舰组合体已经在完善设计，2026年有信心实现100吨的有效载荷送入轨道，并且具备完全重复使用能力，然后在12个月内实现每周一次发射的频率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">9月份的All-In峰会上，马斯克又进一步做了披露，强调第三代星舰从发动机、助推器到飞船，都将在第二代的基础上进行“巨大的升级”，包括设计与结构、发动机性能以及任务的调整等等，其配置按照登陆火星来设计，但最终将由第四代星舰执行火星任务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三代星舰组合体整体高度将超过124米，基于新的不锈钢材料和焊接技术，在保证结构稳定性的同时，整体的质量预计减少10%-15%，减少燃料消耗，提升运力，有效载荷比进一步提升。另外，由于箭体的改进，载荷舱容积也相应增加 20%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d762089edc19cc4158646ffa075da19\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"679\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不同版本星舰的参数配置，来源：@elonmusk </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">动力方面，发动机从第二代猛禽升级至第三代，燃油效率提升10-15%，单台发动机推力从230吨，提升至280吨，有效载荷100吨。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">设计和结构上，第三代星舰最典型的改进是助推器上用于控制姿态的新型格栅翼，尺寸增大50%且更加坚固，数量则是从四个减少到了三个。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd869dd74b2c8a2983544603c5e358bc\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"567\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，格栅翼按照相隔 90° 的角度分布，以减少再入阻力，实现更大的攻角飞行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时格栅翼在助推器上的位置，相对这一代也更低，以减少热分级期间免受发动机排气的强烈热量和冲击力影响，缓解早期飞行测试中出现的栅格翼熔化问题，这也间接地提高了助推器的复用率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一代和二代星舰讨论最多的就是“筷子夹火箭”，<strong>未来还将出现“筷子夹火箭”和“筷子夹飞船”的全塔式回收（海上回收的驳船成本省掉了）。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据SpaceX公布的进展和规划，第三代星舰预计在2025年年底开展地面测试，首飞有可能在2026年中期，具体要看Pad B发射塔的完成进度和第三代猛禽发动机的量产进度，依旧是亚轨道飞行，如果首飞顺利，后续就将切换执行轨道任务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据SpaceX在官网公布的信息，预计2028年执行飞往月球的货运测试任务，2030年执行飞往火星的货运测试任务，有效载荷的均价在“每吨1亿美元”。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文读懂星舰“十一飞”：二代星舰谢幕，“筷子夹飞船”就要来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-14 10:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AFA_X0HyAxPA0tlAO18ljA><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间10月14日，马斯克旗下SpaceX进行星舰第十一次综合飞行测试（以下简称“十一飞”），其中超重型助推器目前顺利完成着陆燃烧阶段的各项配置和动力测试，之后关机坠海。飞船也顺利完成了有效载荷部署、返场机动等关键任务，成功溅落印度洋。本次飞行的星舰组合体由S38飞船和B15.2超重型二手助推器（八飞B15助推器）构成，也是第二代星舰的最后一次飞行测试。SpaceX对“十一飞”的定位很明确：以“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AFA_X0HyAxPA0tlAO18ljA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd412c8faf463c579b6e5899b31abbec","relate_stocks":{"DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AFA_X0HyAxPA0tlAO18ljA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193533554","content_text":"北京时间10月14日，马斯克旗下SpaceX进行星舰第十一次综合飞行测试（以下简称“十一飞”），其中超重型助推器目前顺利完成着陆燃烧阶段的各项配置和动力测试，之后关机坠海。飞船也顺利完成了有效载荷部署、返场机动等关键任务，成功溅落印度洋。本次飞行的星舰组合体由S38飞船和B15.2超重型二手助推器（八飞B15助推器）构成，也是第二代星舰的最后一次飞行测试。SpaceX对“十一飞”的定位很明确：以“十飞”测试为基础进行进一步测试，为第三代星舰超重型助推器收集着陆燃烧配置和动力数据，对飞船的隔热瓦进行压力测试以及飞船返回发射场相关的太空点火、返场机动和导航优化等测试。位于发射塔上的S38B15.2星舰组合体，来源：SpaceX01核心任务：为第三代星舰铺路，为飞船返场做准备星舰“十一飞”使用的B15.2超重型助推器，是此前八飞助推器的复用，33台V2版猛禽发动机中的24台属于重复使用，这也是降本的关键点。助推器的核心目标是验证下一代星舰助推器着陆燃烧阶段的配置，尤其是在不同飞行阶段切换时，发动机启停的不同动力数据，包括：● 着陆燃烧初始阶段点燃13台发动机● 转向阶段切换为5台发动机，模拟路径微调机动至发射塔过程中的发动机配置（第二代星舰为3台发动机配置）● 着陆燃烧结束后切换为3台中央发动机，并在海平面上进入完全悬停状态，模拟筷子夹火箭过程中的发动机配置，之后关机坠入美国湾（墨西哥湾），不安排回收SpaceX解释称，第三代星舰超重型助推器设计的基准配置就是5台发动机，用于微调助推器飞行路径，进而为发动机的关闭提供额外冗余。星舰亚轨道飞行主要阶段示意图 来源：SpaceX星舰的二级飞船S38相关验证，核心是为后续返场做准备（发射出去还得安全返回），但此次也不回收，而是溅落印度洋，验证任务包括：● 动态倾斜机动测试。即着陆燃烧和溅落前（再入末段），测试动态倾斜机动和亚音速制导算法的性能，实现对飞船的精准控制，避免偏航。● 发动机太空点火稳定性、可靠性测试。太空真空环境下重新点火一台猛禽发动机的稳定性、可靠性测试（十飞已经成功）。● 隔热极限测试。再次移除部分隔热瓦，部分区域裸露未设置用于吸热的备用烧蚀层，对飞船再入阶段燃烧进行极限测试（不断地降本）。● 载荷部署测试。和前几次基本一致，测试星链卫星模拟器部署（“十飞”已经成功），模拟器将与飞船位于同一亚轨道，预计在进入大气层后失效。值得注意的是，SpaceX副总裁格斯滕迈尔（负责建造和飞行可靠性测试）此前表示，“十一飞”的飞船在隔热瓦外层包裹了一层“脆皮覆膜”，以便于填充隔热瓦缝隙，替代之前的填缝材料，一个是提升隔热性能，另一个则是减少贴隔热瓦、填缝的时间，提高复用效率。 星舰十一飞组合体相关信息，来源@vikranthjonna 02第二代星舰的最后一次“表演”到目前为止，星舰总计发射了11次，其中前6次由第一代星舰执行，“七飞”及之后的5次飞行更换为第二代星舰。本次飞行测试之前，SpaceX就进行了预告：字面上很明确，Starbase Pad 1（PAD A）发射台当前配置——第二代星舰——最后一次发射。根据之前的统计，“七飞”和“十飞”部分完成任务，“八飞”和“九飞”则完全成功，本次“十一飞”也非常顺利，第二代星舰的再入和回收能力相比第一代有明显提升，其中包括隔热性能极限验证、有效载荷部署以及猛禽发动机太空点火等，这些是未来第三代星舰完全回收、重复利用和商业化的关键。随着第三代星舰相关配置，包括设计、结构和重量的改变，也就意味着Starbase Pad 1发射台需要进行改造。 与此同时，Pad 2（Pad B）以及位于佛罗里达肯尼迪航天中心的L39A发射台也将在未来投入飞行测试（多发射场是未来高频发射的关键）。另外补充一点，发射场的增加也要求当地的制造工厂（Starship Starfactory）和总装车间（Megabay）的增加。目前，佛州和得州的总装车间都在扩建，佛州的总装车间起重能力大幅提升，预计2026年年底投入使用。在佛州的制造工厂落成前，星舰将继续在得州博卡奇卡的工厂制造，然后通过驳船运输到佛州总装发射。03第三代星舰组合体马斯克在今年3月份披露过，第三代星舰组合体已经在完善设计，2026年有信心实现100吨的有效载荷送入轨道，并且具备完全重复使用能力，然后在12个月内实现每周一次发射的频率。9月份的All-In峰会上，马斯克又进一步做了披露，强调第三代星舰从发动机、助推器到飞船，都将在第二代的基础上进行“巨大的升级”，包括设计与结构、发动机性能以及任务的调整等等，其配置按照登陆火星来设计，但最终将由第四代星舰执行火星任务。第三代星舰组合体整体高度将超过124米，基于新的不锈钢材料和焊接技术，在保证结构稳定性的同时，整体的质量预计减少10%-15%，减少燃料消耗，提升运力，有效载荷比进一步提升。另外，由于箭体的改进，载荷舱容积也相应增加 20%。不同版本星舰的参数配置，来源：@elonmusk 动力方面，发动机从第二代猛禽升级至第三代，燃油效率提升10-15%，单台发动机推力从230吨，提升至280吨，有效载荷100吨。 设计和结构上，第三代星舰最典型的改进是助推器上用于控制姿态的新型格栅翼，尺寸增大50%且更加坚固，数量则是从四个减少到了三个。 另外，格栅翼按照相隔 90° 的角度分布，以减少再入阻力，实现更大的攻角飞行。同时格栅翼在助推器上的位置，相对这一代也更低，以减少热分级期间免受发动机排气的强烈热量和冲击力影响，缓解早期飞行测试中出现的栅格翼熔化问题，这也间接地提高了助推器的复用率。过去一代和二代星舰讨论最多的就是“筷子夹火箭”，未来还将出现“筷子夹火箭”和“筷子夹飞船”的全塔式回收（海上回收的驳船成本省掉了）。根据SpaceX公布的进展和规划，第三代星舰预计在2025年年底开展地面测试，首飞有可能在2026年中期，具体要看Pad B发射塔的完成进度和第三代猛禽发动机的量产进度，依旧是亚轨道飞行，如果首飞顺利，后续就将切换执行轨道任务。根据SpaceX在官网公布的信息，预计2028年执行飞往月球的货运测试任务，2030年执行飞往火星的货运测试任务，有效载荷的均价在“每吨1亿美元”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DXYZ":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445563389579512,"gmtCreate":1749785487010,"gmtModify":1753170038838,"author":{"id":"3586481422097138","authorId":"3586481422097138","name":"刚冒芽的韭黄online","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8dfcef1a2cdadac4caca36dc61df62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586481422097138","idStr":"3586481422097138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"excellent day 看涨行情 哈哈哈","listText":"excellent day 看涨行情 哈哈哈","text":"excellent day 看涨行情 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11:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜盘异动 | DXYZ一度跌10%，SpaceX星舰第9次试飞遭遇意外快速解体","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103673954","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月28日，SpaceX的星际飞船火箭在第九次试飞中发生泄漏、失去控制并解体。受此消息影响，DXYZ夜盘一度跌约10%，截止发稿，跌近5%。一级火箭在发射几分钟后与星舰分离，并返回地球，但在下降过程中，控制中心与助推器失去联系，据推测它坠入大海，而非按计划进行受控溅落。而在发射约半小时后，太空探索公司表示，其飞行团队失去了对“星舰”的姿态控制，导致飞船在回到大气层途中发生翻转，在返回地球途中发生了“非计划内的解体”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月28日，SpaceX的星际飞船火箭在第九次试飞中发生泄漏、失去控制并解体。受此消息影响，DXYZ夜盘一度跌10%，截止发稿，跌近5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f755b164b2f6ca989119229c148da988\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"533\"/></p><p>据CCTV国际时讯，北京时间今天早上7:36分左右，美国太空探索公司进行“星舰”第九次试飞任务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一级火箭在发射几分钟后与星舰分离，并返回地球，但在下降过程中，控制中心与助推器失去联系，据推测它坠入大海，而非按计划进行受控溅落。而在发射约半小时后，太空探索公司表示，其飞行团队失去了对“星舰”的姿态控制，导致飞船在回到大气层途中发生翻转，在返回地球途中发生了“非计划内的解体”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，根据报道，本次发射使用的B14.2助推器实现成功复用，但在着陆过程中发生爆炸，具体原因尚在调查中。S35飞船由于舱门异常，也未能完成8颗“星链卫星模拟器”的部署任务，并在再入大气层过程中爆炸。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d722ae7b6e6edf493e3a2e6956a6ff30\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"779\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dcc6bbc76041a16051f27eebdc9bbe\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于助推器回收爆炸的风险，SpaceX也在发射任务介绍的新闻稿中进行了暗示，“为了最大限度地保障星际基地发射设施的安全性，超重型助推器将在飞往墨西哥湾近海着陆点的轨道上进行试验，并且不会返回发射场进行回收。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于已经有“回收爆炸”的预期，所以未出现安排“筷子夹火箭”的经典画面，本次综合测试，更偏向于执行此前的既定任务，同时收集飞行数据，大体可以概括为在确保星舰整体稳定性、可靠性的前提之下，验证助推器的复用（未来飞船部分也会复用），以缩短发射间隔周期，本质上是通过降本增效，未来可实现“天级别”的多次发射。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，尝试对飞船等部分“减配”和设计改进，优化提升载荷能力，在降本的同时，扩大投送能力和潜在商业价值，并通过飞行测试数据和结果，验证这种“减配”思路对稳定性、可靠性的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，据央视新闻报道，今年3月6日，美国太空探索技术公司“星舰”火箭的第二级飞船在试飞中“快速意外解体”。该公司随后表示，飞船上升期间尾部出现“能量事件”，致数台“猛禽”发动机失灵，最终导致飞船失联、解体。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜盘异动 | DXYZ一度跌10%，SpaceX星舰第9次试飞遭遇意外快速解体</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜盘异动 | DXYZ一度跌10%，SpaceX星舰第9次试飞遭遇意外快速解体\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-28 11:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月28日，SpaceX的星际飞船火箭在第九次试飞中发生泄漏、失去控制并解体。受此消息影响，DXYZ夜盘一度跌10%，截止发稿，跌近5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f755b164b2f6ca989119229c148da988\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"533\"/></p><p>据CCTV国际时讯，北京时间今天早上7:36分左右，美国太空探索公司进行“星舰”第九次试飞任务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一级火箭在发射几分钟后与星舰分离，并返回地球，但在下降过程中，控制中心与助推器失去联系，据推测它坠入大海，而非按计划进行受控溅落。而在发射约半小时后，太空探索公司表示，其飞行团队失去了对“星舰”的姿态控制，导致飞船在回到大气层途中发生翻转，在返回地球途中发生了“非计划内的解体”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，根据报道，本次发射使用的B14.2助推器实现成功复用，但在着陆过程中发生爆炸，具体原因尚在调查中。S35飞船由于舱门异常，也未能完成8颗“星链卫星模拟器”的部署任务，并在再入大气层过程中爆炸。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d722ae7b6e6edf493e3a2e6956a6ff30\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"779\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dcc6bbc76041a16051f27eebdc9bbe\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于助推器回收爆炸的风险，SpaceX也在发射任务介绍的新闻稿中进行了暗示，“为了最大限度地保障星际基地发射设施的安全性，超重型助推器将在飞往墨西哥湾近海着陆点的轨道上进行试验，并且不会返回发射场进行回收。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于已经有“回收爆炸”的预期，所以未出现安排“筷子夹火箭”的经典画面，本次综合测试，更偏向于执行此前的既定任务，同时收集飞行数据，大体可以概括为在确保星舰整体稳定性、可靠性的前提之下，验证助推器的复用（未来飞船部分也会复用），以缩短发射间隔周期，本质上是通过降本增效，未来可实现“天级别”的多次发射。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，尝试对飞船等部分“减配”和设计改进，优化提升载荷能力，在降本的同时，扩大投送能力和潜在商业价值，并通过飞行测试数据和结果，验证这种“减配”思路对稳定性、可靠性的影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，据央视新闻报道，今年3月6日，美国太空探索技术公司“星舰”火箭的第二级飞船在试飞中“快速意外解体”。该公司随后表示，飞船上升期间尾部出现“能量事件”，致数台“猛禽”发动机失灵，最终导致飞船失联、解体。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d722ae7b6e6edf493e3a2e6956a6ff30","relate_stocks":{"DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103673954","content_text":"5月28日，SpaceX的星际飞船火箭在第九次试飞中发生泄漏、失去控制并解体。受此消息影响，DXYZ夜盘一度跌10%，截止发稿，跌近5%。据CCTV国际时讯，北京时间今天早上7:36分左右，美国太空探索公司进行“星舰”第九次试飞任务。一级火箭在发射几分钟后与星舰分离，并返回地球，但在下降过程中，控制中心与助推器失去联系，据推测它坠入大海，而非按计划进行受控溅落。而在发射约半小时后，太空探索公司表示，其飞行团队失去了对“星舰”的姿态控制，导致飞船在回到大气层途中发生翻转，在返回地球途中发生了“非计划内的解体”。另外，根据报道，本次发射使用的B14.2助推器实现成功复用，但在着陆过程中发生爆炸，具体原因尚在调查中。S35飞船由于舱门异常，也未能完成8颗“星链卫星模拟器”的部署任务，并在再入大气层过程中爆炸。关于助推器回收爆炸的风险，SpaceX也在发射任务介绍的新闻稿中进行了暗示，“为了最大限度地保障星际基地发射设施的安全性，超重型助推器将在飞往墨西哥湾近海着陆点的轨道上进行试验，并且不会返回发射场进行回收。”由于已经有“回收爆炸”的预期，所以未出现安排“筷子夹火箭”的经典画面，本次综合测试，更偏向于执行此前的既定任务，同时收集飞行数据，大体可以概括为在确保星舰整体稳定性、可靠性的前提之下，验证助推器的复用（未来飞船部分也会复用），以缩短发射间隔周期，本质上是通过降本增效，未来可实现“天级别”的多次发射。同时，尝试对飞船等部分“减配”和设计改进，优化提升载荷能力，在降本的同时，扩大投送能力和潜在商业价值，并通过飞行测试数据和结果，验证这种“减配”思路对稳定性、可靠性的影响。值得注意的是，据央视新闻报道，今年3月6日，美国太空探索技术公司“星舰”火箭的第二级飞船在试飞中“快速意外解体”。该公司随后表示，飞船上升期间尾部出现“能量事件”，致数台“猛禽”发动机失灵，最终导致飞船失联、解体。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DXYZ":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":434937519599736,"gmtCreate":1747205198270,"gmtModify":1753170282285,"author":{"id":"3586481422097138","authorId":"3586481422097138","name":"刚冒芽的韭黄online","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8dfcef1a2cdadac4caca36dc61df62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586481422097138","idStr":"3586481422097138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> &nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> &nbsp; 看看看 哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> &nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> &nbsp; 看看看 哈哈","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ 看看看 哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/434937519599736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":424398644650200,"gmtCreate":1744621833220,"gmtModify":1744621834984,"author":{"id":"3586481422097138","authorId":"3586481422097138","name":"刚冒芽的韭黄online","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8dfcef1a2cdadac4caca36dc61df62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586481422097138","idStr":"3586481422097138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛牛","listText":"牛牛","text":"牛牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424398644650200","repostId":"2527026599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2527026599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1744619955,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2527026599?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-04-14 16:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"当关税和衰退风暴来临，谁能不被“芯”伤？花旗押宝亚德诺和德州仪器","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2527026599","media":"智通财经","summary":"该行对安森美半导体、英特尔和格芯的盈利预期下调幅度最大。该行认为，半导体库存处于低位，应能缓冲冲击。该行对亚德诺和德州仪器最为看好，列为首选股，认为它们在经济低迷时期具有防御性。其他被评为“买入”的股票包括博通、微芯科技、美光科技和恩智浦半导体。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>花旗集团近日发布半导体行业报告，预计财报季期间企业给出的业绩指引尚可，但随着企业逐步消化关税影响，预计将下调指引，本季度晚些时候市场普遍预期的盈利预期平均将下降10%。该行预计今年晚些时候企业还会再次下调指引，考虑到潜在的经济衰退，该行已将覆盖范围内公司的盈利预期平均下调了20%，同时将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADI\">亚德诺</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>列为该行首选股。</p><p>鉴于对经济衰退的预期，在经济衰退期间表现优异的亚德诺和德州仪器目前是该行首选股。由于该行预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>指引下调幅度将小于平均水平，该公司成为第三选择。该行对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和格芯的盈利预期下调幅度最大。</p><p>该行预计公司业绩指引尚可，但后续或将面临下调。虽然该行预计2025年第二季度的指引略低于市场预期，但该行认为随着企业消化关税影响，本季度及今年晚些时候会有更大幅度的下调。该行预测财报季期间每股收益(EPS)平均将下降10%，2025年晚些时候还会进一步下降。</p><p>该行认为当前关税可能会持续存在，因此预计经济将陷入衰退，进而下调盈利预期20%。考虑到关税引发经济衰退的预期，该行已将覆盖范围内公司的盈利预期平均下调了20%，并下调目标价。</p><p>该行认为风险最大的是低利润率股票，如安森美半导体、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和格芯，它们的利润率波动也较大。</p><p>该行认为，半导体库存处于低位，应能缓冲冲击。半导体产品数量在过去三年下降了22%，该行认为这表明大多数产品的库存低于平均水平。一旦供应链和关税变得更加稳定和可预测，预计市场将出现大幅反弹，类似于新冠疫情时期。</p><p>历史数据显示，像亚德诺和德州仪器这样的高端模拟半导体公司通常在经济低迷时期表现突出，该行预计在预期的经济衰退中也会如此。由于销售额和产品数量较峰值下降了约25%，考虑到更健康的库存动态，该行认为模拟芯片领域在经济衰退时应具有相对较强的韧性。</p><p>此外，该行下调了对四大云服务提供商2025年和2026年数据中心资本支出的预测，从之前预计的同比增长40%和20%，分别下调至35%和15%。该行预计每家半导体公司都会下调盈利预期，即使是人工智能领域的公司。</p><p>费城半导体指数(SOX)的市盈率自2024年7月以来已下跌37%，目前处于区间中部。该指数市盈率从2024年7月峰值下跌了约37%，目前基于未来12个月预期每股收益的市盈率为23倍，大致处于其12倍至30倍历史区间的中部。</p><p>该行对亚德诺和德州仪器最为看好，列为首选股，认为它们在经济低迷时期具有防御性。其他被评为“买入”的股票包括博通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCHP\">微芯科技</a>(MCHP.US)、美光科技和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">恩智浦</a>半导体。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当关税和衰退风暴来临，谁能不被“芯”伤？花旗押宝亚德诺和德州仪器</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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