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2021-06-27
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Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>
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2021-06-23
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Simons founded Rentech in 1982 at just 44 years old. He served as the chair and CEO until 2010 when he retired from his role. He still remains as a non-executive chair.</p><p><blockquote>詹姆斯·哈里斯·西蒙斯（James Harris Simons），或吉姆·西蒙斯（Jim Simons），被称为“量化之王”，也是有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，他创办了世界上最成功的量化基金之一Renaissance Technologies（“Rentech”）。1982年，年仅44岁的西蒙斯创立了Rentech。他一直担任董事长兼首席执行官，直到2010年退休。他仍然担任非执行主席。</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Jim Simons is known as one of the greatest investors of all time, due to the long-term returns of his quant fund Renaissance Technologies and its flagship Medallion Fund.</li> <li>Simons served as CEO and chair of Renaissance Technologies from its founding in 1982 until 2010 when he stepped down. Prior to a career in finance, Simons was also a successful mathematician and taught at MIT, Harvard, as well as served as the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University.</li> <li>As of 2021,<i>Forbes</i>estimated Jim Simons' net worth at $23.5 billion, making him the 23rd richest person in the United States.</li> </ul> <b>Early Life and Education</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉姆·西蒙斯(Jim Simons)因其量化基金Renaissance Technologies及其旗舰Medallion基金的长期回报而被称为有史以来最伟大的投资者之一。</li><li>从1982年Renaissance Technologies成立到2010年卸任，西蒙斯一直担任该公司的首席执行官兼董事长。在从事金融职业之前，西蒙斯也是一名成功的数学家，曾在麻省理工学院、哈佛大学任教，并担任石溪大学数学系系主任。</li><li>截至2021年，<i>福布斯</i>据估计，吉姆·西蒙斯的净资产为235亿美元，是美国第23大富豪。</li></ul><b>早期生活和教育</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons was born in 1938 in Brookline, Mass., and discovered his love for mathematics at an early age. At the age of 14, Simons worked at a garden supply store as a floor sweeper after being demoted from a stock boy position due to his lack of memory of inventory location. However, Simons was astute and had the ambitious plan of becoming a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯1938年出生于马萨诸塞州布鲁克林。，并在很小的时候就发现了自己对数学的热爱。14岁时，西蒙斯因缺乏库存位置记忆而从库存男孩职位降级后，在一家花园用品店担任扫地工。然而，西蒙斯很精明，并有一个雄心勃勃的计划，成为麻省理工学院（MIT）的数学家。</blockquote></p><p> In 1955, Simons was accepted into MIT and majored in mathematics. Upon graduating, Simons studied at the University of California at Berkeley for his doctorate in mathematics. His thesis focused on providing supporting proof of Berger's classification of the holonomy groups of Riemannian manifolds, and after just one year, he received his doctorate at the age of 23 in 1961.</p><p><blockquote>1955年，西蒙斯被麻省理工学院录取，主修数学。毕业后，西蒙斯在加州大学伯克利分校攻读数学博士学位。他的论文专注于为Berger对黎曼流形的完整群的分类提供支持证明，仅仅过了一年，1961年23岁的他获得了博士学位。</blockquote></p><p> Later, Simons worked on important mathematical theories, including the Chern-Simons form, which later played a role in topological quantum field theory. He had an early and successful career in mathematics, winning multiple awards, and later was inducted into the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.1</p><p><blockquote>后来，西蒙斯致力于重要的数学理论，包括后来在拓扑量子场论中发挥作用的Chern-Simons形式。他早期在数学领域取得了成功，赢得了多个奖项，后来入选美国国家科学院。</blockquote></p><p> In 1964, Simons was recruited by The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), where he played a key role to break codes during the Vietnam War. Simons left IDA after four years and went on to teach mathematics at MIT and Harvard University.</p><p><blockquote>1964年，西蒙斯被国防分析研究所（IDA）招募，在越南战争期间，他在破解密码方面发挥了关键作用。四年后，西蒙斯离开了IDA，继续在麻省理工学院和哈佛大学教数学。</blockquote></p><p> Eventually, he was appointed to become the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University, where he helped develop the mathematics and physics programs while still being sought after by companies such as IBM for his consulting work. It wasn't until 1978 that he started delving into finance.</p><p><blockquote>最终，他被任命为石溪大学数学系主任，在那里他帮助开发了数学和物理项目，同时仍因其咨询工作而受到IBM等公司的追捧。直到1978年，他才开始钻研金融。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Philosophy & Success Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理念与成功案例</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite already having successful careers as a prize-winning mathematician and a master code breaker for the IDA, Jim Simons decided to pursue a career in finance. In 1978, the mathematician started the hedge fund Monemetrics, which was the predecessor to the highly successful Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>尽管吉姆·西蒙斯已经成为一名获奖数学家和IDA的密码破译大师，但他还是决定从事金融事业。1978年，这位数学家创立了对冲基金Monemetrics，这是非常成功的文艺复兴技术公司的前身。</blockquote></p><p> Simons didn't think to apply mathematics to his hedge fund at first; however, over time, he realized he could use mathematical andstatisticalmodels to interpret data by looking for non-random movements in financial data to predict future returns.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯一开始并没有想到将数学应用到他的对冲基金中；然而，随着时间的推移，他意识到他可以使用数学和统计模型来解释数据，通过寻找财务数据中的非随机变动来预测未来的回报。</blockquote></p><p> By 1988, Simons decided to solely usequantitative analysisto decide which trades to enter. Simons only sought experts in mathematics, data analysis, and many other scientific-related fields to work with him at the fund. The Quant King filled the fund with programmers, mathematicians, physicists, and cryptographers. The company thrived due to the complex mathematical formulas these scientists developed.</p><p><blockquote>到1988年，西蒙斯决定只使用定量分析来决定进入哪些行业。西蒙斯只寻求数学、数据分析和许多其他科学相关领域的专家与他一起在该基金工作。这位量化之王让基金充满了程序员、数学家、物理学家和密码学家。由于这些科学家开发的复杂数学公式，该公司蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Since its inception, Renaissance Technologies' flagship fund, the Medallion hedge fund, has generated over $100 billion in trading profits with an average annual return of 71.8% before fees between 1994 and mid-2014.2 Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is only available for its employees and family members.</p><p><blockquote>自成立以来，Renaissance Technologies的旗舰基金Medallion对冲基金在1994年至2014年中期期间创造了超过1000亿美元的交易利润，扣除费用前的平均年回报率为71.8%。2不幸的是，Medallion基金仅适用于其员工和家庭成员。</blockquote></p><p> $165 billion, Renaissance Technologies' assets under management as of 2020. <b>Current Net Worth and Influence</b></p><p><blockquote>截至2020年，Renaissance Technologies管理的资产为1650亿美元。<b>当前净资产和影响力</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons ranked 23rd on<i>Forbes</i>' wealthiest Americans list in 2020, with an estimated $23.5 billionnet worth. The Quant King also ranks first on the Forbes 2019 list of highest-earning hedge fund managers.3</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯排名第23位<i>福布斯</i>2020年美国最富有的人名单，估计净资产为235亿美元。这位量化之王还在福布斯2019年收入最高的对冲基金经理排行榜上排名第一。3</blockquote></p><p> Simons has a great deal of influence in the scientific world and co-founded the Simons Foundation with his wife, Marilyn Simons, in 1994. The Simons Foundation is devoted to supporting scientific research, education, and health. Simons has contributed over $2.7 billion of his wealth to this cause as well as to support autism research.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯在科学界有很大的影响力，并于1994年与妻子玛丽莲·西蒙斯共同创立了西蒙斯基金会。西蒙斯基金会致力于支持科学研究、教育和健康。西蒙斯已经为这项事业贡献了超过27亿美元的财富，并支持自闭症研究。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Simons founded Math for America, which aims to encourage mathematics and science teachers to remain in their roles and advance their teaching abilities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，西蒙斯创立了Math for America，旨在鼓励数学和科学教师留在自己的岗位上，提高他们的教学能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Jim Simons Quotes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯语录</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is a big advocate of idea sharing and hiring the brightest people from various science-related fields. However, Simons frequently avoids the spotlight and doesn't give many interviews. The following quotes give just a sliver of insight into how he's managed and built Rentech.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是想法分享和雇佣来自各个科学相关领域的最聪明的人的大力倡导者。然而，西蒙斯经常避开聚光灯，也没有接受太多采访。下面的引语让我们对他如何管理和建立Rentech有了一点了解。</blockquote></p><p> \"Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance...That made a lot of money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“优秀的人才。优秀的基础设施。开放的环境。让每个人大致根据整体表现获得报酬……这赚了很多钱。”</blockquote></p><p> “We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们搜索历史数据，寻找我们预计不会随机发生的异常模式。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Past performance is the best predictor of success.\"</p><p><blockquote>“过去的表现是成功的最佳预测因素。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们有三个标准：如果它是公开交易的、具有流动性的并且适合建模，我们就会交易它。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“有效市场理论是正确的，因为不存在严重的低效率。但我们关注的是规模可能很小、时间短暂的异常现象。我们做出预测。然后，此后不久，我们重新评估形势，修改我们的预测和投资组合。我们整天都在这样做。”我们总是进进出出，进进出出。所以我们依靠活动来赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I disparage some for whom model-making was a part-time hobby,\" Simons once said as part of a speech at MIT in 2011. Simons made the remark when speaking about those who thought model-making was not useful in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>“我鄙视一些把制作模型作为兼职爱好的人，”西蒙斯曾在2011年麻省理工学院的一次演讲中说道。西蒙斯是在谈到那些认为模型制作在现实世界中没有用的人时发表上述言论的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jim Simons FAQs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯常见问题解答</b></blockquote></p><p> Is Jim Simons the Most Successful Investor of All Time?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是有史以来最成功的投资者吗？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager and has been called the world's greatest investor by the<i>Wall Street Journal</i>. Although success is subjective, other investors such as Warren Buffett are considered amongthe world's greatest investors.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯(Jim Simons)是最富有的对冲基金经理，被《华尔街日报》称为世界上最伟大的投资者<i>华尔街日报</i>虽然成功是主观的，但其他投资者，如沃伦·巴菲特，被认为是世界上最伟大的投资者之一。</blockquote></p><p> What Is Jim Simons' Strategy?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的策略是什么？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons exclusively uses quantitative analysis to decide which trades to enter, based on market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯专门使用定量分析来根据市场效率低下来决定进入哪些交易。</blockquote></p><p> Can I Invest in the Medallion Fund?</p><p><blockquote>我可以投资奖章基金吗？</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is closed to outside investors and is only available to current and past employees of Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，Medallion基金不对外部投资者开放，仅向Renaissance Technologies的现任和前任员工开放。</blockquote></p><p> Who Is the Richest Hedge Fund Manager?</p><p><blockquote>谁是最富有的对冲基金经理？</blockquote></p><p> According to<i>Forbes</i>, Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager in America.4</p><p><blockquote>根据<i>福布斯</i>吉姆·西蒙斯是美国最富有的对冲基金经理。</blockquote></p><p> How Much Do the Top Hedge Fund Managers Make?</p><p><blockquote>顶级对冲基金经理挣多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest data from<i>Forbes</i>, the top 10 hedge fund managers make well over $500 million a year, all the way up to $1 billion. Jim Simons is currently the richest hedge fund manager and made $1.6 billion in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新数据<i>福布斯</i>前10名对冲基金经理的年收入远远超过5亿美元，一直高达10亿美元。吉姆·西蒙斯是目前最富有的对冲基金经理，2017年赚了16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> An unlikely mathematician turned Wall Street on its head back in 1982. Since then, Jim Simons and his Renaissance Technologies quant fund have left a legacy that will forever change the world of finance. The numbers are hard to argue with after logging the Medallion Fund's skyrocketing returns.</p><p><blockquote>1982年，一位不太可能的数学家彻底改变了华尔街。从那时起，吉姆·西蒙斯和他的文艺复兴技术量化基金留下了将永远改变金融界的遗产。在记录了Medallion基金的飙升回报后，这些数字是无可争议的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jim Simons' Success Story: Net Worth, Education, and Top Quotes<blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的成功故事：净资产、教育和热门名言</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJim Simons' Success Story: Net Worth, Education, and Top Quotes<blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的成功故事：净资产、教育和热门名言</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 15:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>James Harris Simons, or Jim Simons, is known as the \"Quant King\" and one of the greatest investors of all time, after having started one of the most successfulquant fundsin the world, Renaissance Technologies (“Rentech”). Simons founded Rentech in 1982 at just 44 years old. He served as the chair and CEO until 2010 when he retired from his role. He still remains as a non-executive chair.</p><p><blockquote>詹姆斯·哈里斯·西蒙斯（James Harris Simons），或吉姆·西蒙斯（Jim Simons），被称为“量化之王”，也是有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，他创办了世界上最成功的量化基金之一Renaissance Technologies（“Rentech”）。1982年，年仅44岁的西蒙斯创立了Rentech。他一直担任董事长兼首席执行官，直到2010年退休。他仍然担任非执行主席。</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Jim Simons is known as one of the greatest investors of all time, due to the long-term returns of his quant fund Renaissance Technologies and its flagship Medallion Fund.</li> <li>Simons served as CEO and chair of Renaissance Technologies from its founding in 1982 until 2010 when he stepped down. Prior to a career in finance, Simons was also a successful mathematician and taught at MIT, Harvard, as well as served as the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University.</li> <li>As of 2021,<i>Forbes</i>estimated Jim Simons' net worth at $23.5 billion, making him the 23rd richest person in the United States.</li> </ul> <b>Early Life and Education</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>吉姆·西蒙斯(Jim Simons)因其量化基金Renaissance Technologies及其旗舰Medallion基金的长期回报而被称为有史以来最伟大的投资者之一。</li><li>从1982年Renaissance Technologies成立到2010年卸任，西蒙斯一直担任该公司的首席执行官兼董事长。在从事金融职业之前，西蒙斯也是一名成功的数学家，曾在麻省理工学院、哈佛大学任教，并担任石溪大学数学系系主任。</li><li>截至2021年，<i>福布斯</i>据估计，吉姆·西蒙斯的净资产为235亿美元，是美国第23大富豪。</li></ul><b>早期生活和教育</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons was born in 1938 in Brookline, Mass., and discovered his love for mathematics at an early age. At the age of 14, Simons worked at a garden supply store as a floor sweeper after being demoted from a stock boy position due to his lack of memory of inventory location. However, Simons was astute and had the ambitious plan of becoming a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯1938年出生于马萨诸塞州布鲁克林。，并在很小的时候就发现了自己对数学的热爱。14岁时，西蒙斯因缺乏库存位置记忆而从库存男孩职位降级后，在一家花园用品店担任扫地工。然而，西蒙斯很精明，并有一个雄心勃勃的计划，成为麻省理工学院（MIT）的数学家。</blockquote></p><p> In 1955, Simons was accepted into MIT and majored in mathematics. Upon graduating, Simons studied at the University of California at Berkeley for his doctorate in mathematics. His thesis focused on providing supporting proof of Berger's classification of the holonomy groups of Riemannian manifolds, and after just one year, he received his doctorate at the age of 23 in 1961.</p><p><blockquote>1955年，西蒙斯被麻省理工学院录取，主修数学。毕业后，西蒙斯在加州大学伯克利分校攻读数学博士学位。他的论文专注于为Berger对黎曼流形的完整群的分类提供支持证明，仅仅过了一年，1961年23岁的他获得了博士学位。</blockquote></p><p> Later, Simons worked on important mathematical theories, including the Chern-Simons form, which later played a role in topological quantum field theory. He had an early and successful career in mathematics, winning multiple awards, and later was inducted into the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.1</p><p><blockquote>后来，西蒙斯致力于重要的数学理论，包括后来在拓扑量子场论中发挥作用的Chern-Simons形式。他早期在数学领域取得了成功，赢得了多个奖项，后来入选美国国家科学院。</blockquote></p><p> In 1964, Simons was recruited by The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), where he played a key role to break codes during the Vietnam War. Simons left IDA after four years and went on to teach mathematics at MIT and Harvard University.</p><p><blockquote>1964年，西蒙斯被国防分析研究所（IDA）招募，在越南战争期间，他在破解密码方面发挥了关键作用。四年后，西蒙斯离开了IDA，继续在麻省理工学院和哈佛大学教数学。</blockquote></p><p> Eventually, he was appointed to become the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University, where he helped develop the mathematics and physics programs while still being sought after by companies such as IBM for his consulting work. It wasn't until 1978 that he started delving into finance.</p><p><blockquote>最终，他被任命为石溪大学数学系主任，在那里他帮助开发了数学和物理项目，同时仍因其咨询工作而受到IBM等公司的追捧。直到1978年，他才开始钻研金融。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Philosophy & Success Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理念与成功案例</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite already having successful careers as a prize-winning mathematician and a master code breaker for the IDA, Jim Simons decided to pursue a career in finance. In 1978, the mathematician started the hedge fund Monemetrics, which was the predecessor to the highly successful Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>尽管吉姆·西蒙斯已经成为一名获奖数学家和IDA的密码破译大师，但他还是决定从事金融事业。1978年，这位数学家创立了对冲基金Monemetrics，这是非常成功的文艺复兴技术公司的前身。</blockquote></p><p> Simons didn't think to apply mathematics to his hedge fund at first; however, over time, he realized he could use mathematical andstatisticalmodels to interpret data by looking for non-random movements in financial data to predict future returns.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯一开始并没有想到将数学应用到他的对冲基金中；然而，随着时间的推移，他意识到他可以使用数学和统计模型来解释数据，通过寻找财务数据中的非随机变动来预测未来的回报。</blockquote></p><p> By 1988, Simons decided to solely usequantitative analysisto decide which trades to enter. Simons only sought experts in mathematics, data analysis, and many other scientific-related fields to work with him at the fund. The Quant King filled the fund with programmers, mathematicians, physicists, and cryptographers. The company thrived due to the complex mathematical formulas these scientists developed.</p><p><blockquote>到1988年，西蒙斯决定只使用定量分析来决定进入哪些行业。西蒙斯只寻求数学、数据分析和许多其他科学相关领域的专家与他一起在该基金工作。这位量化之王让基金充满了程序员、数学家、物理学家和密码学家。由于这些科学家开发的复杂数学公式，该公司蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Since its inception, Renaissance Technologies' flagship fund, the Medallion hedge fund, has generated over $100 billion in trading profits with an average annual return of 71.8% before fees between 1994 and mid-2014.2 Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is only available for its employees and family members.</p><p><blockquote>自成立以来，Renaissance Technologies的旗舰基金Medallion对冲基金在1994年至2014年中期期间创造了超过1000亿美元的交易利润，扣除费用前的平均年回报率为71.8%。2不幸的是，Medallion基金仅适用于其员工和家庭成员。</blockquote></p><p> $165 billion, Renaissance Technologies' assets under management as of 2020. <b>Current Net Worth and Influence</b></p><p><blockquote>截至2020年，Renaissance Technologies管理的资产为1650亿美元。<b>当前净资产和影响力</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons ranked 23rd on<i>Forbes</i>' wealthiest Americans list in 2020, with an estimated $23.5 billionnet worth. The Quant King also ranks first on the Forbes 2019 list of highest-earning hedge fund managers.3</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯排名第23位<i>福布斯</i>2020年美国最富有的人名单，估计净资产为235亿美元。这位量化之王还在福布斯2019年收入最高的对冲基金经理排行榜上排名第一。3</blockquote></p><p> Simons has a great deal of influence in the scientific world and co-founded the Simons Foundation with his wife, Marilyn Simons, in 1994. The Simons Foundation is devoted to supporting scientific research, education, and health. Simons has contributed over $2.7 billion of his wealth to this cause as well as to support autism research.</p><p><blockquote>西蒙斯在科学界有很大的影响力，并于1994年与妻子玛丽莲·西蒙斯共同创立了西蒙斯基金会。西蒙斯基金会致力于支持科学研究、教育和健康。西蒙斯已经为这项事业贡献了超过27亿美元的财富，并支持自闭症研究。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Simons founded Math for America, which aims to encourage mathematics and science teachers to remain in their roles and advance their teaching abilities.</p><p><blockquote>此外，西蒙斯创立了Math for America，旨在鼓励数学和科学教师留在自己的岗位上，提高他们的教学能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Jim Simons Quotes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯语录</b></blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is a big advocate of idea sharing and hiring the brightest people from various science-related fields. However, Simons frequently avoids the spotlight and doesn't give many interviews. The following quotes give just a sliver of insight into how he's managed and built Rentech.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是想法分享和雇佣来自各个科学相关领域的最聪明的人的大力倡导者。然而，西蒙斯经常避开聚光灯，也没有接受太多采访。下面的引语让我们对他如何管理和建立Rentech有了一点了解。</blockquote></p><p> \"Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance...That made a lot of money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“优秀的人才。优秀的基础设施。开放的环境。让每个人大致根据整体表现获得报酬……这赚了很多钱。”</blockquote></p><p> “We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们搜索历史数据，寻找我们预计不会随机发生的异常模式。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Past performance is the best predictor of success.\"</p><p><blockquote>“过去的表现是成功的最佳预测因素。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们有三个标准：如果它是公开交易的、具有流动性的并且适合建模，我们就会交易它。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money.\"</p><p><blockquote>“有效市场理论是正确的，因为不存在严重的低效率。但我们关注的是规模可能很小、时间短暂的异常现象。我们做出预测。然后，此后不久，我们重新评估形势，修改我们的预测和投资组合。我们整天都在这样做。”我们总是进进出出，进进出出。所以我们依靠活动来赚钱。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I disparage some for whom model-making was a part-time hobby,\" Simons once said as part of a speech at MIT in 2011. Simons made the remark when speaking about those who thought model-making was not useful in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>“我鄙视一些把制作模型作为兼职爱好的人，”西蒙斯曾在2011年麻省理工学院的一次演讲中说道。西蒙斯是在谈到那些认为模型制作在现实世界中没有用的人时发表上述言论的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jim Simons FAQs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉姆·西蒙斯常见问题解答</b></blockquote></p><p> Is Jim Simons the Most Successful Investor of All Time?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯是有史以来最成功的投资者吗？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager and has been called the world's greatest investor by the<i>Wall Street Journal</i>. Although success is subjective, other investors such as Warren Buffett are considered amongthe world's greatest investors.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯(Jim Simons)是最富有的对冲基金经理，被《华尔街日报》称为世界上最伟大的投资者<i>华尔街日报</i>虽然成功是主观的，但其他投资者，如沃伦·巴菲特，被认为是世界上最伟大的投资者之一。</blockquote></p><p> What Is Jim Simons' Strategy?</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯的策略是什么？</blockquote></p><p> Jim Simons exclusively uses quantitative analysis to decide which trades to enter, based on market inefficiencies.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·西蒙斯专门使用定量分析来根据市场效率低下来决定进入哪些交易。</blockquote></p><p> Can I Invest in the Medallion Fund?</p><p><blockquote>我可以投资奖章基金吗？</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is closed to outside investors and is only available to current and past employees of Renaissance Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，Medallion基金不对外部投资者开放，仅向Renaissance Technologies的现任和前任员工开放。</blockquote></p><p> Who Is the Richest Hedge Fund Manager?</p><p><blockquote>谁是最富有的对冲基金经理？</blockquote></p><p> According to<i>Forbes</i>, Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager in America.4</p><p><blockquote>根据<i>福布斯</i>吉姆·西蒙斯是美国最富有的对冲基金经理。</blockquote></p><p> How Much Do the Top Hedge Fund Managers Make?</p><p><blockquote>顶级对冲基金经理挣多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest data from<i>Forbes</i>, the top 10 hedge fund managers make well over $500 million a year, all the way up to $1 billion. Jim Simons is currently the richest hedge fund manager and made $1.6 billion in 2017.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新数据<i>福布斯</i>前10名对冲基金经理的年收入远远超过5亿美元，一直高达10亿美元。吉姆·西蒙斯是目前最富有的对冲基金经理，2017年赚了16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> An unlikely mathematician turned Wall Street on its head back in 1982. Since then, Jim Simons and his Renaissance Technologies quant fund have left a legacy that will forever change the world of finance. The numbers are hard to argue with after logging the Medallion Fund's skyrocketing returns.</p><p><blockquote>1982年，一位不太可能的数学家彻底改变了华尔街。从那时起，吉姆·西蒙斯和他的文艺复兴技术量化基金留下了将永远改变金融界的遗产。在记录了Medallion基金的飙升回报后，这些数字是无可争议的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030516/jim-simons-success-story-net-worth-education-top-quotes.asp\">Investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030516/jim-simons-success-story-net-worth-education-top-quotes.asp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180709423","content_text":"James Harris Simons, or Jim Simons, is known as the \"Quant King\" and one of the greatest investors of all time, after having started one of the most successfulquant fundsin the world, Renaissance Technologies (“Rentech”). Simons founded Rentech in 1982 at just 44 years old. He served as the chair and CEO until 2010 when he retired from his role. He still remains as a non-executive chair.\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nJim Simons is known as one of the greatest investors of all time, due to the long-term returns of his quant fund Renaissance Technologies and its flagship Medallion Fund.\nSimons served as CEO and chair of Renaissance Technologies from its founding in 1982 until 2010 when he stepped down. Prior to a career in finance, Simons was also a successful mathematician and taught at MIT, Harvard, as well as served as the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University.\nAs of 2021,Forbesestimated Jim Simons' net worth at $23.5 billion, making him the 23rd richest person in the United States.\n\nEarly Life and Education\nJim Simons was born in 1938 in Brookline, Mass., and discovered his love for mathematics at an early age. At the age of 14, Simons worked at a garden supply store as a floor sweeper after being demoted from a stock boy position due to his lack of memory of inventory location. However, Simons was astute and had the ambitious plan of becoming a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).\nIn 1955, Simons was accepted into MIT and majored in mathematics. Upon graduating, Simons studied at the University of California at Berkeley for his doctorate in mathematics. His thesis focused on providing supporting proof of Berger's classification of the holonomy groups of Riemannian manifolds, and after just one year, he received his doctorate at the age of 23 in 1961.\nLater, Simons worked on important mathematical theories, including the Chern-Simons form, which later played a role in topological quantum field theory. He had an early and successful career in mathematics, winning multiple awards, and later was inducted into the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.1\nIn 1964, Simons was recruited by The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), where he played a key role to break codes during the Vietnam War. Simons left IDA after four years and went on to teach mathematics at MIT and Harvard University.\nEventually, he was appointed to become the chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University, where he helped develop the mathematics and physics programs while still being sought after by companies such as IBM for his consulting work. It wasn't until 1978 that he started delving into finance.\nInvestment Philosophy & Success Story\nDespite already having successful careers as a prize-winning mathematician and a master code breaker for the IDA, Jim Simons decided to pursue a career in finance. In 1978, the mathematician started the hedge fund Monemetrics, which was the predecessor to the highly successful Renaissance Technologies.\nSimons didn't think to apply mathematics to his hedge fund at first; however, over time, he realized he could use mathematical andstatisticalmodels to interpret data by looking for non-random movements in financial data to predict future returns.\nBy 1988, Simons decided to solely usequantitative analysisto decide which trades to enter. Simons only sought experts in mathematics, data analysis, and many other scientific-related fields to work with him at the fund. The Quant King filled the fund with programmers, mathematicians, physicists, and cryptographers. The company thrived due to the complex mathematical formulas these scientists developed.\nSince its inception, Renaissance Technologies' flagship fund, the Medallion hedge fund, has generated over $100 billion in trading profits with an average annual return of 71.8% before fees between 1994 and mid-2014.2 Unfortunately, the Medallion fund is only available for its employees and family members.\n\n $165 billion, Renaissance Technologies' assets under management as of 2020.\n\nCurrent Net Worth and Influence\nJim Simons ranked 23rd onForbes' wealthiest Americans list in 2020, with an estimated $23.5 billionnet worth. The Quant King also ranks first on the Forbes 2019 list of highest-earning hedge fund managers.3\nSimons has a great deal of influence in the scientific world and co-founded the Simons Foundation with his wife, Marilyn Simons, in 1994. The Simons Foundation is devoted to supporting scientific research, education, and health. Simons has contributed over $2.7 billion of his wealth to this cause as well as to support autism research.\nAdditionally, Simons founded Math for America, which aims to encourage mathematics and science teachers to remain in their roles and advance their teaching abilities.\nJim Simons Quotes\nJim Simons is a big advocate of idea sharing and hiring the brightest people from various science-related fields. However, Simons frequently avoids the spotlight and doesn't give many interviews. The following quotes give just a sliver of insight into how he's managed and built Rentech.\n\"Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance...That made a lot of money.\"\n“We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”\n\"Past performance is the best predictor of success.\"\n\"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it.\"\n\"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money.\"\n\"I disparage some for whom model-making was a part-time hobby,\" Simons once said as part of a speech at MIT in 2011. Simons made the remark when speaking about those who thought model-making was not useful in the real world.\nJim Simons FAQs\nIs Jim Simons the Most Successful Investor of All Time?\nJim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager and has been called the world's greatest investor by theWall Street Journal. Although success is subjective, other investors such as Warren Buffett are considered amongthe world's greatest investors.\nWhat Is Jim Simons' Strategy?\nJim Simons exclusively uses quantitative analysis to decide which trades to enter, based on market inefficiencies.\nCan I Invest in the Medallion Fund?\nUnfortunately, the Medallion fund is closed to outside investors and is only available to current and past employees of Renaissance Technologies.\nWho Is the Richest Hedge Fund Manager?\nAccording toForbes, Jim Simons is the richest hedge fund manager in America.4\nHow Much Do the Top Hedge Fund Managers Make?\nAccording to the latest data fromForbes, the top 10 hedge fund managers make well over $500 million a year, all the way up to $1 billion. Jim Simons is currently the richest hedge fund manager and made $1.6 billion in 2017.\nThe Bottom Line\nAn unlikely mathematician turned Wall Street on its head back in 1982. Since then, Jim Simons and his Renaissance Technologies quant fund have left a legacy that will forever change the world of finance. The numbers are hard to argue with after logging the Medallion Fund's skyrocketing returns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500600,"gmtCreate":1624770122800,"gmtModify":1633948799199,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500600","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500987,"gmtCreate":1624770104149,"gmtModify":1633948799687,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio","listText":"Nio","text":"Nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500987","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li> <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li> <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li> <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li> <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125569813,"gmtCreate":1624680630332,"gmtModify":1633949644334,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow ","listText":"Wow ","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125569813","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125697169,"gmtCreate":1624670688251,"gmtModify":1633949847320,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125697169","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122014386,"gmtCreate":1624587928745,"gmtModify":1633950857526,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122014386","repostId":"1160571601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128924007,"gmtCreate":1624498857509,"gmtModify":1634005238263,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128924007","repostId":"1135246082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128925196,"gmtCreate":1624498832615,"gmtModify":1634005238734,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128925196","repostId":"1178700711","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178700711","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624497882,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178700711?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 09:24","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Bubble Tea Chain Raises $656 Million in Hong Kong IPO<blockquote>珍珠奶茶连锁店香港IPO融资6.56亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178700711","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 millio","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 million) after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top of a marketed range, the latest company to ride a resurgence of listings in the Asian financial hub.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-中国珍珠奶茶连锁店奈雪控股有限公司在香港首次公开募股定价高于市场范围后，筹集了50.9亿港元（6.56亿美元），这是最新一家在亚洲金融中心上市复苏的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki, whose popular fresh-fruit teas include cheese-foam-topped beverages, has priced 257.3 million shares at HK$19.8 each, according to terms of the deal obtained by Bloomberg News. It had marketed the shares at HK$17.2 to HK$19.8 apiece.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博新闻社获得的交易条款，奈雪的热门鲜果茶包括芝士泡沫饮料，该公司以每股19.8港元的价格发行了2.573亿股股票。该公司以每股17.2港元至19.8港元的价格出售股份。</blockquote></p><p> The teahouse operator is testing the waters after Angelalign Technology Inc., a maker of clear orthodontic braces, heralded a revival in Hong Kong’s IPO market with a massive 132% pop on its June 16 debut, becoming one of this year’s most popular offerings in the city.</p><p><blockquote>透明正畸牙套制造商时代天使科技公司(Angelalign Technology Inc.)在6月16日首次亮相时股价飙升132%，成为今年香港最受欢迎的产品之一，预示着香港IPO市场的复苏，这家茶馆运营商正在试水。</blockquote></p><p> First-time share sales in Hong Kong are ticking up after a period of muted activity, as an easing of the global tech selloff has created a more favorable backdrop for debuts. At least 13 companies are currently in the lineup to go public, compared to only two deals priced in April and four in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了一段时间的低迷活动后，香港的首次公开募股销售正在回升，因为全球科技股抛售的缓解为首次公开募股创造了更有利的背景。根据彭博社汇编的数据，目前至少有13家公司正在准备上市，而4月份只有两笔交易定价，5月份有四笔交易定价。</blockquote></p><p> Still, not every IPO is getting a warm welcome as investors have become more selective amid higher volatility in markets and growing expectations of a tightening of U.S. monetary policy. China Youran Dairy Group Ltd. and CARsgen Therapeutics Holdings Ltd. slumped 12% and 9%, respectively, in their trading debuts last Friday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，并非每一次IPO都受到热烈欢迎，因为在市场波动加剧和对美国货币政策收紧的预期不断增强的情况下，投资者变得更加挑剔。中国优然乳业集团有限公司和科济药业控股有限公司上周五首次上市时分别下跌12%和9%。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki’s share sale attracted five cornerstone investors who agreed to subscribe for about $155 million of stock. They are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International, according to the prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>奈雪的股票出售吸引了五名基石投资者，他们同意认购约1.55亿美元的股票。根据招股说明书，它们是瑞银资产管理、汇添富资产管理、广发基金、南方基金和建银国际。</blockquote></p><p> The retail portion of Nayuki’s IPO was more than 400 times oversubscribed, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, citing people it didn’t identify.</p><p><blockquote>据《信报》援引未透露姓名的人士报道，奈雪的IPO零售部分超额认购超过400倍。</blockquote></p><p> The top-of-the-range pricing values the bubble tea chain at about $4.38 billion, up from the $2 billion in its last funding round. It originally planned to file for an IPO in the U.S. in February last year, Bloomberg News reported, but eventually opted for Hong Kong.</p><p><blockquote>顶级定价对这家珍珠奶茶连锁店的估值约为43.8亿美元，高于上一轮融资的20亿美元。据彭博社报道，该公司最初计划于去年2月在美国申请IPO，但最终选择了香港。</blockquote></p><p> The Shenzhen-based firm sells fresh-fruit teas, cold-brew beverages and baked goods. It recorded losses of 203 million yuan in 2020 and 40 million yuan in the previous year, according to its prospectus. Revenue rose 22% year-on-year to 3.1 billion yuan.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于深圳的公司销售鲜果茶、冷饮和烘焙食品。招股书显示，该公司2020年亏损2.03亿元，上年亏损4000万元。营收同比升22%至31亿元。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki plans to use proceeds from the offering to expand its teahouse network, deepen market penetration and strengthen its supply chain. It had 491 flagship Nayuki outlets at the end of last year, including 489 in mainland China and one each in Hong Kong and Japan.</p><p><blockquote>奈雪计划将此次发行所得用于扩大其茶馆网络、深化市场渗透并加强其供应链。截至去年底，其拥有491家奈雪旗舰店，其中中国大陆489家，香港和日本各1家。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki’s shares are set to start trading in Hong Kong on June 30. JPMorgan Chase & Co., CMB International Capital Ltd. and Huatai International Ltd. are joint sponsors for the listing.</p><p><blockquote>奈雪的股票定于6月30日在香港开始交易。摩根大通、招银国际金融有限公司及华泰国际有限公司为本次上市的联席保荐人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bubble Tea Chain Raises $656 Million in Hong Kong IPO<blockquote>珍珠奶茶连锁店香港IPO融资6.56亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBubble Tea Chain Raises $656 Million in Hong Kong IPO<blockquote>珍珠奶茶连锁店香港IPO融资6.56亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 million) after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top of a marketed range, the latest company to ride a resurgence of listings in the Asian financial hub.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）-中国珍珠奶茶连锁店奈雪控股有限公司在香港首次公开募股定价高于市场范围后，筹集了50.9亿港元（6.56亿美元），这是最新一家在亚洲金融中心上市复苏的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki, whose popular fresh-fruit teas include cheese-foam-topped beverages, has priced 257.3 million shares at HK$19.8 each, according to terms of the deal obtained by Bloomberg News. It had marketed the shares at HK$17.2 to HK$19.8 apiece.</p><p><blockquote>根据彭博新闻社获得的交易条款，奈雪的热门鲜果茶包括芝士泡沫饮料，该公司以每股19.8港元的价格发行了2.573亿股股票。该公司以每股17.2港元至19.8港元的价格出售股份。</blockquote></p><p> The teahouse operator is testing the waters after Angelalign Technology Inc., a maker of clear orthodontic braces, heralded a revival in Hong Kong’s IPO market with a massive 132% pop on its June 16 debut, becoming one of this year’s most popular offerings in the city.</p><p><blockquote>透明正畸牙套制造商时代天使科技公司(Angelalign Technology Inc.)在6月16日首次亮相时股价飙升132%，成为今年香港最受欢迎的产品之一，预示着香港IPO市场的复苏，这家茶馆运营商正在试水。</blockquote></p><p> First-time share sales in Hong Kong are ticking up after a period of muted activity, as an easing of the global tech selloff has created a more favorable backdrop for debuts. At least 13 companies are currently in the lineup to go public, compared to only two deals priced in April and four in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了一段时间的低迷活动后，香港的首次公开募股销售正在回升，因为全球科技股抛售的缓解为首次公开募股创造了更有利的背景。根据彭博社汇编的数据，目前至少有13家公司正在准备上市，而4月份只有两笔交易定价，5月份有四笔交易定价。</blockquote></p><p> Still, not every IPO is getting a warm welcome as investors have become more selective amid higher volatility in markets and growing expectations of a tightening of U.S. monetary policy. China Youran Dairy Group Ltd. and CARsgen Therapeutics Holdings Ltd. slumped 12% and 9%, respectively, in their trading debuts last Friday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，并非每一次IPO都受到热烈欢迎，因为在市场波动加剧和对美国货币政策收紧的预期不断增强的情况下，投资者变得更加挑剔。中国优然乳业集团有限公司和科济药业控股有限公司上周五首次上市时分别下跌12%和9%。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki’s share sale attracted five cornerstone investors who agreed to subscribe for about $155 million of stock. They are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International, according to the prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>奈雪的股票出售吸引了五名基石投资者，他们同意认购约1.55亿美元的股票。根据招股说明书，它们是瑞银资产管理、汇添富资产管理、广发基金、南方基金和建银国际。</blockquote></p><p> The retail portion of Nayuki’s IPO was more than 400 times oversubscribed, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, citing people it didn’t identify.</p><p><blockquote>据《信报》援引未透露姓名的人士报道，奈雪的IPO零售部分超额认购超过400倍。</blockquote></p><p> The top-of-the-range pricing values the bubble tea chain at about $4.38 billion, up from the $2 billion in its last funding round. It originally planned to file for an IPO in the U.S. in February last year, Bloomberg News reported, but eventually opted for Hong Kong.</p><p><blockquote>顶级定价对这家珍珠奶茶连锁店的估值约为43.8亿美元，高于上一轮融资的20亿美元。据彭博社报道，该公司最初计划于去年2月在美国申请IPO，但最终选择了香港。</blockquote></p><p> The Shenzhen-based firm sells fresh-fruit teas, cold-brew beverages and baked goods. It recorded losses of 203 million yuan in 2020 and 40 million yuan in the previous year, according to its prospectus. Revenue rose 22% year-on-year to 3.1 billion yuan.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于深圳的公司销售鲜果茶、冷饮和烘焙食品。招股书显示，该公司2020年亏损2.03亿元，上年亏损4000万元。营收同比升22%至31亿元。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki plans to use proceeds from the offering to expand its teahouse network, deepen market penetration and strengthen its supply chain. It had 491 flagship Nayuki outlets at the end of last year, including 489 in mainland China and one each in Hong Kong and Japan.</p><p><blockquote>奈雪计划将此次发行所得用于扩大其茶馆网络、深化市场渗透并加强其供应链。截至去年底，其拥有491家奈雪旗舰店，其中中国大陆489家，香港和日本各1家。</blockquote></p><p> Nayuki’s shares are set to start trading in Hong Kong on June 30. JPMorgan Chase & Co., CMB International Capital Ltd. and Huatai International Ltd. are joint sponsors for the listing.</p><p><blockquote>奈雪的股票定于6月30日在香港开始交易。摩根大通、招银国际金融有限公司及华泰国际有限公司为本次上市的联席保荐人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-tea-chain-said-raise-111206490.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178700711","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chinese bubble tea chain Nayuki Holdings Ltd. has raised HK$5.09 billion ($656 million) after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top of a marketed range, the latest company to ride a resurgence of listings in the Asian financial hub.\nNayuki, whose popular fresh-fruit teas include cheese-foam-topped beverages, has priced 257.3 million shares at HK$19.8 each, according to terms of the deal obtained by Bloomberg News. It had marketed the shares at HK$17.2 to HK$19.8 apiece.\nThe teahouse operator is testing the waters after Angelalign Technology Inc., a maker of clear orthodontic braces, heralded a revival in Hong Kong’s IPO market with a massive 132% pop on its June 16 debut, becoming one of this year’s most popular offerings in the city.\nFirst-time share sales in Hong Kong are ticking up after a period of muted activity, as an easing of the global tech selloff has created a more favorable backdrop for debuts. At least 13 companies are currently in the lineup to go public, compared to only two deals priced in April and four in May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.\nStill, not every IPO is getting a warm welcome as investors have become more selective amid higher volatility in markets and growing expectations of a tightening of U.S. monetary policy. China Youran Dairy Group Ltd. and CARsgen Therapeutics Holdings Ltd. slumped 12% and 9%, respectively, in their trading debuts last Friday.\nNayuki’s share sale attracted five cornerstone investors who agreed to subscribe for about $155 million of stock. They are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International, according to the prospectus.\nThe retail portion of Nayuki’s IPO was more than 400 times oversubscribed, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported, citing people it didn’t identify.\nThe top-of-the-range pricing values the bubble tea chain at about $4.38 billion, up from the $2 billion in its last funding round. It originally planned to file for an IPO in the U.S. in February last year, Bloomberg News reported, but eventually opted for Hong Kong.\nThe Shenzhen-based firm sells fresh-fruit teas, cold-brew beverages and baked goods. It recorded losses of 203 million yuan in 2020 and 40 million yuan in the previous year, according to its prospectus. Revenue rose 22% year-on-year to 3.1 billion yuan.\nNayuki plans to use proceeds from the offering to expand its teahouse network, deepen market penetration and strengthen its supply chain. It had 491 flagship Nayuki outlets at the end of last year, including 489 in mainland China and one each in Hong Kong and Japan.\nNayuki’s shares are set to start trading in Hong Kong on June 30. JPMorgan Chase & Co., CMB International Capital Ltd. and Huatai International Ltd. are joint sponsors for the listing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128922925,"gmtCreate":1624498793567,"gmtModify":1634005239476,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128922925","repostId":"1149998058","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149998058","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624498064,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149998058?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong’s Lalamove Files Confidentially for $1 Billion U.S. IPO<blockquote>货拉拉秘密申请10亿美元美国IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149998058","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially f","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially for a U.S. initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——据知情人士透露，香港按需物流和送货公司货拉拉已秘密申请在美国进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> The company, also known as Huolala in China, is looking to raise at least $1 billion in the share sale, the people said. Details of the offering including the fundraising amount are still subject to change depending on investor demand, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，该公司在中国也被称为货拉拉，希望通过此次股票发行筹集至少10亿美元。知情人士表示，包括融资金额在内的发行细节仍会根据投资者的需求而发生变化。由于信息是私人的，因此要求匿名。</blockquote></p><p> “The company is paying close attention to capital markets but has no specific timeline and plan for going public,” a representative for Lalamove said in a text message in response to Bloomberg News query.</p><p><blockquote>货拉拉的一位代表在回应彭博新闻社询问的短信中表示：“该公司正在密切关注资本市场，但没有具体的上市时间表和计划。”</blockquote></p><p> Lalamove is among a number of logistics companies going public this year as the coronavirus-induced lockdowns fueled a surge in e-commerce demand. Chinese trucking startup Full Truck Alliance Co. this week raised $1.6 billion in its U.S. IPO and climbed 13% in its debut. E-commerce giant JD.com Inc’s shipping and delivery unit JD Logistics Inc. went public in Hong Kong last month in a $3.6 billion share sale.</p><p><blockquote>由于冠状病毒引发的封锁推动了电子商务需求的激增，货拉拉是今年上市的众多物流公司之一。中国卡车运输初创公司Full Truck Alliance Co.本周在美国IPO中筹集了16亿美元，首次亮相就上涨了13%。电子商务巨头京东公司旗下的航运和配送部门京东物流公司上个月在港上市，发行了36亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2013 by Stanford graduate and former professional poker player Chow Shing-yuk, Lalamove provides van-hailing and courier services on demand. It operates in over 20 markets across Asia, Latin America and the U.S. with a pool of more than 700,000 driver partners, according to its website. Lalamove’s business is anchored in China.</p><p><blockquote>货拉拉于2013年由斯坦福大学毕业生、前职业扑克玩家Chow Shing-yuk创立，按需提供货车和快递服务。据其网站称，该公司在亚洲、拉丁美洲和美国的20多个市场开展业务，拥有超过70万名司机合作伙伴。货拉拉的业务锚定在国内。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Lalamove raised $515 million from investors including Sequoia Capital China, Hillhouse Capital and Shunwei Capital. It had been seeking a valuation of $8 billion at the time, Bloomberg News reported.</p><p><blockquote>去年，货拉拉从红杉资本中国、高瓴资本和顺为资本等投资者那里筹集了5.15亿美元。据彭博新闻报道，该公司当时一直在寻求80亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Its smaller rival GogoX is weighing a Hong Kong IPO that could raise $400 million to $500 million as soon as this year, people familiar with the matter said in March.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士今年3月表示，其规模较小的竞争对手GogoX正在考虑在香港进行IPO，最快可能在今年筹集4亿至5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong’s Lalamove Files Confidentially for $1 Billion U.S. IPO<blockquote>货拉拉秘密申请10亿美元美国IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong’s Lalamove Files Confidentially for $1 Billion U.S. IPO<blockquote>货拉拉秘密申请10亿美元美国IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 09:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially for a U.S. initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——据知情人士透露，香港按需物流和送货公司货拉拉已秘密申请在美国进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> The company, also known as Huolala in China, is looking to raise at least $1 billion in the share sale, the people said. Details of the offering including the fundraising amount are still subject to change depending on investor demand, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，该公司在中国也被称为货拉拉，希望通过此次股票发行筹集至少10亿美元。知情人士表示，包括融资金额在内的发行细节仍会根据投资者的需求而发生变化。由于信息是私人的，因此要求匿名。</blockquote></p><p> “The company is paying close attention to capital markets but has no specific timeline and plan for going public,” a representative for Lalamove said in a text message in response to Bloomberg News query.</p><p><blockquote>货拉拉的一位代表在回应彭博新闻社询问的短信中表示：“该公司正在密切关注资本市场，但没有具体的上市时间表和计划。”</blockquote></p><p> Lalamove is among a number of logistics companies going public this year as the coronavirus-induced lockdowns fueled a surge in e-commerce demand. Chinese trucking startup Full Truck Alliance Co. this week raised $1.6 billion in its U.S. IPO and climbed 13% in its debut. E-commerce giant JD.com Inc’s shipping and delivery unit JD Logistics Inc. went public in Hong Kong last month in a $3.6 billion share sale.</p><p><blockquote>由于冠状病毒引发的封锁推动了电子商务需求的激增，货拉拉是今年上市的众多物流公司之一。中国卡车运输初创公司Full Truck Alliance Co.本周在美国IPO中筹集了16亿美元，首次亮相就上涨了13%。电子商务巨头京东公司旗下的航运和配送部门京东物流公司上个月在港上市，发行了36亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2013 by Stanford graduate and former professional poker player Chow Shing-yuk, Lalamove provides van-hailing and courier services on demand. It operates in over 20 markets across Asia, Latin America and the U.S. with a pool of more than 700,000 driver partners, according to its website. Lalamove’s business is anchored in China.</p><p><blockquote>货拉拉于2013年由斯坦福大学毕业生、前职业扑克玩家Chow Shing-yuk创立，按需提供货车和快递服务。据其网站称，该公司在亚洲、拉丁美洲和美国的20多个市场开展业务，拥有超过70万名司机合作伙伴。货拉拉的业务锚定在国内。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Lalamove raised $515 million from investors including Sequoia Capital China, Hillhouse Capital and Shunwei Capital. It had been seeking a valuation of $8 billion at the time, Bloomberg News reported.</p><p><blockquote>去年，货拉拉从红杉资本中国、高瓴资本和顺为资本等投资者那里筹集了5.15亿美元。据彭博新闻报道，该公司当时一直在寻求80亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Its smaller rival GogoX is weighing a Hong Kong IPO that could raise $400 million to $500 million as soon as this year, people familiar with the matter said in March.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士今年3月表示，其规模较小的竞争对手GogoX正在考虑在香港进行IPO，最快可能在今年筹集4亿至5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"YMM":"满帮"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-lalamove-files-confidentially-095834795.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149998058","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s on-demand logistics and delivery firm Lalamove has filed confidentially for a U.S. initial public offering, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe company, also known as Huolala in China, is looking to raise at least $1 billion in the share sale, the people said. Details of the offering including the fundraising amount are still subject to change depending on investor demand, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.\n“The company is paying close attention to capital markets but has no specific timeline and plan for going public,” a representative for Lalamove said in a text message in response to Bloomberg News query.\nLalamove is among a number of logistics companies going public this year as the coronavirus-induced lockdowns fueled a surge in e-commerce demand. Chinese trucking startup Full Truck Alliance Co. this week raised $1.6 billion in its U.S. IPO and climbed 13% in its debut. E-commerce giant JD.com Inc’s shipping and delivery unit JD Logistics Inc. went public in Hong Kong last month in a $3.6 billion share sale.\nFounded in 2013 by Stanford graduate and former professional poker player Chow Shing-yuk, Lalamove provides van-hailing and courier services on demand. It operates in over 20 markets across Asia, Latin America and the U.S. with a pool of more than 700,000 driver partners, according to its website. Lalamove’s business is anchored in China.\nLast year, Lalamove raised $515 million from investors including Sequoia Capital China, Hillhouse Capital and Shunwei Capital. It had been seeking a valuation of $8 billion at the time, Bloomberg News reported.\nIts smaller rival GogoX is weighing a Hong Kong IPO that could raise $400 million to $500 million as soon as this year, people familiar with the matter said in March.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128928498,"gmtCreate":1624498746114,"gmtModify":1634005240316,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128928498","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123956504,"gmtCreate":1624407293608,"gmtModify":1634006651990,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice ","listText":"Nice ","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123956504","repostId":"1108697564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123956310,"gmtCreate":1624407273230,"gmtModify":1634006652600,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123956310","repostId":"2145737065","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123958136,"gmtCreate":1624407255225,"gmtModify":1634006653525,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123958136","repostId":"1123710128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123710128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624406277,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123710128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EVs Seen Reaching Sales Supremacy by 2033, Faster Than Expected<blockquote>电动汽车预计到2033年将达到销量霸主地位，速度快于预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123710128","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than prev","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than previously expected -- as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission transportation, according to a new study.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——根据一项新的研究，随着更严格的法规和不断上升的兴趣推动了对零排放交通的需求，全球电动汽车将在2033年到来，比之前的预期提前了五年。</blockquote></p><p> Consultant Ernst & Young LLP now sees EV sales outpacing fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the U.S. -- the world’s largest auto markets. And by 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1% of the global car market, EY forecast using an AI-powered prediction tool.</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司安永会计师事务所(Ernst&Young LLP)目前预计，在全球最大的汽车市场欧洲、中国和美国，电动汽车销量将在12年内超过化石燃料燃烧器。安永使用人工智能预测工具预测，到2045年，非电动汽车销量预计将骤降至全球汽车市场的1%以下。</blockquote></p><p> Strict government mandates to combat climate change are driving demand in Europe and China, where automakers and consumers face rising financial penalties for selling and buying traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled cars. EY sees Europe leading the charge to electric, with zero-emission models outselling all other propulsion systems by 2028. That tipping point will arrive in China in 2033 and in the U.S. in 2036, EY predicts.</p><p><blockquote>政府应对气候变化的严格要求正在推动欧洲和中国的需求，在这些国家，汽车制造商和消费者因销售和购买传统汽油和柴油汽车而面临越来越多的经济处罚。安永预计欧洲将引领电动化潮流，到2028年，零排放车型的销量将超过所有其他推进系统。安永预测，这一临界点将于2033年在中国到来，2036年在美国到来。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. lags the world’s other leading markets because fuel-economy regulations were eased during President Donald Trump’s administration. Since taking office in January, President Joe Biden has rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and proposed spending $174 billion to accelerate the shift to EVs, including installing a half-million charging stations across the country.</p><p><blockquote>美国落后于世界其他主要市场，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统执政期间放松了燃油经济性法规。自1月份上任以来，乔·拜登总统重新加入了巴黎气候协议，并提议斥资1740亿美元加速向电动汽车的转变，包括在全国安装50万个充电站。</blockquote></p><p> “The regulatory environment from the Biden administration we view as a big contributor, because he has ambitious targets,” Randy Miller, EY’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader, said in an interview. “That impact in the Americas will have a supercharging effect.”</p><p><blockquote>安永全球先进制造和移动出行负责人兰迪·米勒在接受采访时表示：“我们认为拜登政府的监管环境是一个很大的贡献者，因为他有雄心勃勃的目标。”“这种对美洲的影响将产生增压效应。”</blockquote></p><p> There also is a growing consumer appetite for EVs, from Tesla Inc.’s hot-selling Model 3 to new electric models coming from legacy automakers, such as General Motors Co.’s battery-powered Hummer truck and Ford Motor Co.’s F-150 Lightning pickup. Investments in battery powered models now top $230 billion from the world’s automakers, according to consultant AlixPartners.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对电动汽车的需求也在不断增长，从特斯拉公司热销的Model 3到传统汽车制造商的新型电动车型，例如通用汽车公司的电池驱动悍马卡车和福特汽车公司的F-150闪电皮卡。据咨询公司AlixPartners称，目前全球汽车制造商对电池驱动车型的投资超过2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> ‘More Appealing’</p><p><blockquote>“更有吸引力”</blockquote></p><p> “Many more models that are much more appealing are coming out,” Miller said. “You factor that with the incentives, and those are the raw ingredients that are driving this more optimistic view.”</p><p><blockquote>“更多更具吸引力的型号正在问世，”米勒说。“你把这一点与激励因素结合起来，这些就是推动这种更乐观观点的原材料。”</blockquote></p><p> The EY study also sees the millennial generation, now in their late 20s and 30s, as helping to propel EV adoption. Those consumers, driven by a coronavirus-influenced rejection of ride-sharing and public transportation, are embracing car ownership. And 30% of them want to drive an EV, Miller said.</p><p><blockquote>安永的研究还认为，现在20多岁和30多岁的千禧一代有助于推动电动汽车的采用。这些消费者在冠状病毒影响下拒绝拼车和公共交通的推动下，正在接受拥有汽车。米勒说，其中30%的人想驾驶电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> “The view from the millennials that we’re seeing is clearly more inclination to want to buy EVs,” Miller said.</p><p><blockquote>米勒说：“我们看到的千禧一代的观点显然更倾向于购买电动汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the combination of government purchase incentives for EVs and proposed bans on internal combustion engines in cities and states are accelerating the adoption of battery-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，政府对电动汽车的购买激励措施以及城市和州对内燃机的拟议禁令相结合，正在加速电池驱动汽车的采用。</blockquote></p><p> Europe is forecast to lead in EV sales volumes until 2031, when China will become the world’s top market for electric vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2031年，欧洲的电动汽车销量将处于领先地位，届时中国将成为全球最大的电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicles powered by gasoline and diesel are still predicted to make up around two-thirds of all light vehicle registrations in 2025, but that will mark a 12 percentage-point decrease from five years earlier. By 2030, EY predicts that non-EV cars will account for less than half of overall light vehicle registrations.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2025年，汽油和柴油动力汽车仍将占所有轻型汽车注册量的三分之二左右，但这将比五年前下降12个百分点。安永预测，到2030年，非电动汽车将占轻型汽车注册总量的一半以下。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EVs Seen Reaching Sales Supremacy by 2033, Faster Than Expected<blockquote>电动汽车预计到2033年将达到销量霸主地位，速度快于预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEVs Seen Reaching Sales Supremacy by 2033, Faster Than Expected<blockquote>电动汽车预计到2033年将达到销量霸主地位，速度快于预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 07:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than previously expected -- as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission transportation, according to a new study.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——根据一项新的研究，随着更严格的法规和不断上升的兴趣推动了对零排放交通的需求，全球电动汽车将在2033年到来，比之前的预期提前了五年。</blockquote></p><p> Consultant Ernst & Young LLP now sees EV sales outpacing fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the U.S. -- the world’s largest auto markets. And by 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1% of the global car market, EY forecast using an AI-powered prediction tool.</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司安永会计师事务所(Ernst&Young LLP)目前预计，在全球最大的汽车市场欧洲、中国和美国，电动汽车销量将在12年内超过化石燃料燃烧器。安永使用人工智能预测工具预测，到2045年，非电动汽车销量预计将骤降至全球汽车市场的1%以下。</blockquote></p><p> Strict government mandates to combat climate change are driving demand in Europe and China, where automakers and consumers face rising financial penalties for selling and buying traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled cars. EY sees Europe leading the charge to electric, with zero-emission models outselling all other propulsion systems by 2028. That tipping point will arrive in China in 2033 and in the U.S. in 2036, EY predicts.</p><p><blockquote>政府应对气候变化的严格要求正在推动欧洲和中国的需求，在这些国家，汽车制造商和消费者因销售和购买传统汽油和柴油汽车而面临越来越多的经济处罚。安永预计欧洲将引领电动化潮流，到2028年，零排放车型的销量将超过所有其他推进系统。安永预测，这一临界点将于2033年在中国到来，2036年在美国到来。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. lags the world’s other leading markets because fuel-economy regulations were eased during President Donald Trump’s administration. Since taking office in January, President Joe Biden has rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and proposed spending $174 billion to accelerate the shift to EVs, including installing a half-million charging stations across the country.</p><p><blockquote>美国落后于世界其他主要市场，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统执政期间放松了燃油经济性法规。自1月份上任以来，乔·拜登总统重新加入了巴黎气候协议，并提议斥资1740亿美元加速向电动汽车的转变，包括在全国安装50万个充电站。</blockquote></p><p> “The regulatory environment from the Biden administration we view as a big contributor, because he has ambitious targets,” Randy Miller, EY’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader, said in an interview. “That impact in the Americas will have a supercharging effect.”</p><p><blockquote>安永全球先进制造和移动出行负责人兰迪·米勒在接受采访时表示：“我们认为拜登政府的监管环境是一个很大的贡献者，因为他有雄心勃勃的目标。”“这种对美洲的影响将产生增压效应。”</blockquote></p><p> There also is a growing consumer appetite for EVs, from Tesla Inc.’s hot-selling Model 3 to new electric models coming from legacy automakers, such as General Motors Co.’s battery-powered Hummer truck and Ford Motor Co.’s F-150 Lightning pickup. Investments in battery powered models now top $230 billion from the world’s automakers, according to consultant AlixPartners.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对电动汽车的需求也在不断增长，从特斯拉公司热销的Model 3到传统汽车制造商的新型电动车型，例如通用汽车公司的电池驱动悍马卡车和福特汽车公司的F-150闪电皮卡。据咨询公司AlixPartners称，目前全球汽车制造商对电池驱动车型的投资超过2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> ‘More Appealing’</p><p><blockquote>“更有吸引力”</blockquote></p><p> “Many more models that are much more appealing are coming out,” Miller said. “You factor that with the incentives, and those are the raw ingredients that are driving this more optimistic view.”</p><p><blockquote>“更多更具吸引力的型号正在问世，”米勒说。“你把这一点与激励因素结合起来，这些就是推动这种更乐观观点的原材料。”</blockquote></p><p> The EY study also sees the millennial generation, now in their late 20s and 30s, as helping to propel EV adoption. Those consumers, driven by a coronavirus-influenced rejection of ride-sharing and public transportation, are embracing car ownership. And 30% of them want to drive an EV, Miller said.</p><p><blockquote>安永的研究还认为，现在20多岁和30多岁的千禧一代有助于推动电动汽车的采用。这些消费者在冠状病毒影响下拒绝拼车和公共交通的推动下，正在接受拥有汽车。米勒说，其中30%的人想驾驶电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> “The view from the millennials that we’re seeing is clearly more inclination to want to buy EVs,” Miller said.</p><p><blockquote>米勒说：“我们看到的千禧一代的观点显然更倾向于购买电动汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the combination of government purchase incentives for EVs and proposed bans on internal combustion engines in cities and states are accelerating the adoption of battery-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，政府对电动汽车的购买激励措施以及城市和州对内燃机的拟议禁令相结合，正在加速电池驱动汽车的采用。</blockquote></p><p> Europe is forecast to lead in EV sales volumes until 2031, when China will become the world’s top market for electric vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2031年，欧洲的电动汽车销量将处于领先地位，届时中国将成为全球最大的电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicles powered by gasoline and diesel are still predicted to make up around two-thirds of all light vehicle registrations in 2025, but that will mark a 12 percentage-point decrease from five years earlier. By 2030, EY predicts that non-EV cars will account for less than half of overall light vehicle registrations.</p><p><blockquote>预计到2025年，汽油和柴油动力汽车仍将占所有轻型汽车注册量的三分之二左右，但这将比五年前下降12个百分点。安永预测，到2030年，非电动汽车将占轻型汽车注册总量的一半以下。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evs-seen-reaching-sales-supremacy-230100585.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123710128","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than previously expected -- as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission transportation, according to a new study.\nConsultant Ernst & Young LLP now sees EV sales outpacing fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the U.S. -- the world’s largest auto markets. And by 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1% of the global car market, EY forecast using an AI-powered prediction tool.\nStrict government mandates to combat climate change are driving demand in Europe and China, where automakers and consumers face rising financial penalties for selling and buying traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled cars. EY sees Europe leading the charge to electric, with zero-emission models outselling all other propulsion systems by 2028. That tipping point will arrive in China in 2033 and in the U.S. in 2036, EY predicts.\nThe U.S. lags the world’s other leading markets because fuel-economy regulations were eased during President Donald Trump’s administration. Since taking office in January, President Joe Biden has rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and proposed spending $174 billion to accelerate the shift to EVs, including installing a half-million charging stations across the country.\n“The regulatory environment from the Biden administration we view as a big contributor, because he has ambitious targets,” Randy Miller, EY’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader, said in an interview. “That impact in the Americas will have a supercharging effect.”\nThere also is a growing consumer appetite for EVs, from Tesla Inc.’s hot-selling Model 3 to new electric models coming from legacy automakers, such as General Motors Co.’s battery-powered Hummer truck and Ford Motor Co.’s F-150 Lightning pickup. Investments in battery powered models now top $230 billion from the world’s automakers, according to consultant AlixPartners.\n‘More Appealing’\n“Many more models that are much more appealing are coming out,” Miller said. “You factor that with the incentives, and those are the raw ingredients that are driving this more optimistic view.”\nThe EY study also sees the millennial generation, now in their late 20s and 30s, as helping to propel EV adoption. Those consumers, driven by a coronavirus-influenced rejection of ride-sharing and public transportation, are embracing car ownership. And 30% of them want to drive an EV, Miller said.\n“The view from the millennials that we’re seeing is clearly more inclination to want to buy EVs,” Miller said.\nAdditionally, the combination of government purchase incentives for EVs and proposed bans on internal combustion engines in cities and states are accelerating the adoption of battery-powered vehicles.\nEurope is forecast to lead in EV sales volumes until 2031, when China will become the world’s top market for electric vehicles.\nVehicles powered by gasoline and diesel are still predicted to make up around two-thirds of all light vehicle registrations in 2025, but that will mark a 12 percentage-point decrease from five years earlier. By 2030, EY predicts that non-EV cars will account for less than half of overall light vehicle registrations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123953317,"gmtCreate":1624407228739,"gmtModify":1634006655532,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123953317","repostId":"2145066828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123959151,"gmtCreate":1624407206973,"gmtModify":1634006656358,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123959151","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120208962,"gmtCreate":1624323484856,"gmtModify":1634007841072,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ","listText":"Great ","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120208962","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p> When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP. Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation: <b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p> When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP. Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation: <b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120203796,"gmtCreate":1624323452715,"gmtModify":1634007842536,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like ","listText":"Like ","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120203796","repostId":"1164918098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120203371,"gmtCreate":1624323433293,"gmtModify":1634007843150,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586257880212732","authorIdStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120203371","repostId":"1136791321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136791321","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624282996,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136791321?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136791321","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.","content":"<p>(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月21日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e7cf675e122ca02f2d220cde025a88\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-21 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月21日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e7cf675e122ca02f2d220cde025a88\" tg-width=\"310\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136791321","content_text":"(June 21) EV stocks fell in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":125569813,"gmtCreate":1624680630332,"gmtModify":1633949644334,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow ","listText":"Wow 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","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164907649","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153600295,"gmtCreate":1625019586217,"gmtModify":1633945764774,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153600295","repostId":"1124855646","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500600,"gmtCreate":1624770122800,"gmtModify":1633948799199,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500600","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124500987,"gmtCreate":1624770104149,"gmtModify":1633948799687,"author":{"id":"3586257880212732","authorId":"3586257880212732","name":"Eelheis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/377a44bd36e37057b0a3ea65ec21afba","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586257880212732","idStr":"3586257880212732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio","listText":"Nio","text":"Nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124500987","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li> <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li> <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li> <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li> <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. 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