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teguh

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2021-07-12

the flight was so successful, the Unity22 spaceship could bring sir Richard Branson to the space with $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ to the moon.

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2021-06-16

comment and like please, on exchange I will like and comment your post

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2021-06-30

aapl to the moon

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2021-06-14

nice

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2021-07-12

Unity22 successfully bring sir Richard Branson to the space!!! obviously $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$will go the moon

2021-07-11

majority of the stock has high level of debt and not profitable yet, I don't want bet my money on them

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2021-06-20

like this comment please, in exchange I will follow and like + comment on one of your post

3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>

2021-06-10

comment

Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>

2021-07-03

hmmm possibility to dip

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2021-06-20

wtf, investing in AAPL is risky, but why most warren buffet portfolios are in AAPL?

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2021-07-23

nicee

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2021-06-26

nice

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2021-06-21

comment and like please

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2021-06-20

like this comment please, in exchange I will follow and like + comment on one of your post

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2021-06-28

nice

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2021-06-19

Dont fly with Boeing 737 Max

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2021-07-19

bad fundamentals, not worth to buy

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2021-07-13

is that good sign?

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2021-07-12

I hope $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$make make some profit for me

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What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174737530,"gmtCreate":1627138039220,"gmtModify":1633767701104,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"no way","listText":"no way","text":"no way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174737530","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售价格较高的汽车，与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175224864,"gmtCreate":1627036538058,"gmtModify":1633768587472,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>i love windows&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>i love windows&nbsp;","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$i love 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back","text":"yoo bounce back","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6884f639bdfc3745c4b0bcfa60e569","width":"720","height":"2060"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178100149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178372619,"gmtCreate":1626789945331,"gmtModify":1633771011647,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up up up","listText":"up up up","text":"up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178372619","repostId":"1102737002","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102737002","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626787848,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102737002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open slightly higher in attempt to bounce back from Monday selloff<blockquote>股市小幅高开，试图从周一的抛售中反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102737002","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 20) Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks rebo","content":"<p>(July 20)&nbsp;Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks rebounded following a sharp selloff in the previous session, while shares of IBM jumped on strong second-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）华尔街主要指数周二高开，对经济敏感的股票在前一交易日大幅抛售后反弹，而IBM股价因强劲的第二季度业绩而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese education&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally, Blockchain stocks plunged.</p><p><blockquote>中国教育股上涨，区块链股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard capsule returns to Earth safely.&nbsp;Blue Origin Becomes the First Company to Take a Paying Passenger to Space.&nbsp;Amzon&nbsp;stock&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.48%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德太空舱安全返回地球。蓝色起源成为第一家将付费乘客送上太空的公司。亚马逊股价早盘下跌0。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f39d7260da8bf4b4752067a47fef692b\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb77d3a02961a8a78cc8ac8ac2dc9f05\" tg-width=\"306\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4eddca19a77e87393f2b94d50383e9\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open slightly higher in attempt to bounce back from Monday selloff<blockquote>股市小幅高开，试图从周一的抛售中反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open slightly higher in attempt to bounce back from Monday selloff<blockquote>股市小幅高开，试图从周一的抛售中反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 20)&nbsp;Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks rebounded following a sharp selloff in the previous session, while shares of IBM jumped on strong second-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>（7月20日）华尔街主要指数周二高开，对经济敏感的股票在前一交易日大幅抛售后反弹，而IBM股价因强劲的第二季度业绩而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese education&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally, Blockchain stocks plunged.</p><p><blockquote>中国教育股上涨，区块链股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard capsule returns to Earth safely.&nbsp;Blue Origin Becomes the First Company to Take a Paying Passenger to Space.&nbsp;Amzon&nbsp;stock&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.48%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德太空舱安全返回地球。蓝色起源成为第一家将付费乘客送上太空的公司。亚马逊股价早盘下跌0。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f39d7260da8bf4b4752067a47fef692b\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb77d3a02961a8a78cc8ac8ac2dc9f05\" tg-width=\"306\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4eddca19a77e87393f2b94d50383e9\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102737002","content_text":"(July 20) Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Tuesday, as economically sensitive stocks rebounded following a sharp selloff in the previous session, while shares of IBM jumped on strong second-quarter results.\nChinese education stocks rally, Blockchain stocks plunged.\nNew Shepard capsule returns to Earth safely. Blue Origin Becomes the First Company to Take a Paying Passenger to Space. Amzon stock fell 0.48% in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173752080,"gmtCreate":1626689914940,"gmtModify":1633924917614,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$S&amp;P500 ETF(SPY)$</a>will be market bearish again today","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$S&amp;P500 ETF(SPY)$</a>will be market bearish again today","text":"$S&P500 ETF(SPY)$will be market bearish again today","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f304283b72873650421411fee4c01ec","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173752080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173756967,"gmtCreate":1626689768359,"gmtModify":1633924918241,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bad fundamentals, not worth to buy","listText":"bad fundamentals, not worth to buy","text":"bad fundamentals, not worth to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173756967","repostId":"1179025434","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179025434","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626684931,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179025434?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Virgin Galactic Stock A Buy After Worst Week Ever?<blockquote>在经历了有史以来最糟糕的一周之后，维珍银河股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179025434","media":"Investors","summary":"Virgin Galactic Stock fell over 6% in premarket trading.\n\nVirgin Galactic(SPCE) launched founder Ric","content":"<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;Stock&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河股价在盘前交易中下跌超过6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624c4224524bb93e11d391b9cc1f8db4\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic</b>(SPCE) launched&nbsp;founder Richard Branson into space on July 11, ahead of Blue Origin's Jeff Bezos.So, is SPCE stock a good buy? For the answer, take a look at the space company's earnings and stock chart.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河</b>(SPCE)于7月11日将创始人Richard Branson送入太空，先于蓝色起源的杰夫·贝索斯。那么，SPCE股票值得买入吗？要找到答案，请看一下这家航天公司的收益和股票图表。</blockquote></p><p> But on July 12, Virgin Galactic filed a regulatory notice that itplans to sell up to $500 million in stock. That triggered the worst weekly sell-off since SPCE stock became public.</p><p><blockquote>但7月12日，维珍银河提交了一份监管通知，计划出售最多5亿美元的股票。这引发了自SPCE股票上市以来最严重的每周抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic Stock Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE stock debuted on the NYSE on Oct. 28 2019, becoming the first publicly traded commercial space tourism company after a reverse merger with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE股票于2019年10月28日在纽约证券交易所上市，成为与社会资本Hedosophia Holdings反向合并后第一家上市的商业太空旅游公司。</blockquote></p><p> But it is still not flying paying passengers to the edge of space yet, so there is no revenue coming in and losses are piling up. On May 10, Virgin Galactic reported a Q1 per-share loss of 55 cents, missing Wall Street expectations for a loss of 31 cents a share and widening from 30 cents a year ago, on no revenue. Available cash slipped to $617 million from $666 million in Q4. The company expects free cash outflow to worsen to $60 million in Q2 from $50 million in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>但它仍然没有将付费乘客运送到太空边缘，因此没有收入，损失也在不断增加。5月10日，维珍银河公布第一季度每股亏损55美分，低于华尔街预期的每股亏损31美分，较一年前的30美分有所扩大，且没有收入。可用现金从第四季度的6.66亿美元下滑至6.17亿美元。该公司预计第二季度自由现金流出将从第一季度的5000万美元恶化至6000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the July 11 test flight was a key step toward the start of commercial service. The flight evaluated the customer cabin with a full crew, demonstrated the conditions for conducting human-tended experiments, and confirmed that the training program at Spaceport America supports spaceflight. Virgin Galactic has two more flights, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> with the Italian Air Force, to close out its test program. It plans to start commercial service in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，7月11日的试飞是开始商业服务的关键一步。这次飞行评估了全机组人员的客户客舱，展示了进行人工管理实验的条件，并确认了美国航天港的培训计划支持航天飞行。维珍银河还有两个航班，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>与意大利空军合作，结束其测试计划。它计划于2022年初开始商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic has lined up further scientific research flights, another key revenue stream for the commercial space company. A researcher for the International Institute for Astronautical Sciences will conduct experiments with new healthcare technologies during a space flight that could happen as early as next year. A future NASA-funded research mission will include a planetary scientist. So far, it is unclear how much each seat on the research flights will cost.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河已经安排了进一步的科学研究飞行，这是这家商业航天公司的另一个关键收入来源。国际航天科学研究所的一名研究人员将在最早可能于明年进行的太空飞行中进行新医疗技术的实验。未来美国宇航局资助的研究任务将包括一名行星科学家。到目前为止，还不清楚研究航班上每个座位的价格是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic will report Q2 results after the market closes on Aug. 5. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the company to report a loss of 33 cents per share vs. a 30 cent-per-share loss in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is seen rising to $400,000 from none a year ago. Virgin has not started revenue-generating flights but has some small revenue streams outside of commercial flights.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河将于8月5日收盘后公布第二季度业绩。FactSet调查的分析师预计该公司每股亏损33美分，而去年同期每股亏损30美分。收入预计将从一年前的零增加到40万美元。维珍航空尚未开始创收航班，但在商业航班之外有一些小额收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> While the company began as a space tourism company, analysts have also notedVirgin Galactic's potential in hypersonic point-to-point travel, by using its space plane to take passengers across continents in a fraction of the time it takes today.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司最初是一家太空旅游公司，但分析师也注意到了维珍银河在高超音速点对点旅行方面的潜力，通过使用其太空飞机将乘客运送到各大洲，所需时间只是今天的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin is partnering with<b>Boeing</b>(BA), whose venture capital arm HorizonX has a $20 million minority stake in Virgin Galactic, in high-speed travel.</p><p><blockquote>维珍正在与<b>波音公司</b>(BA)旗下风险投资部门HorizonX持有维珍银河价值2000万美元的少数股权。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic said in February 2020 that it sees a\"huge opportunity\" to apply high-speed global mobility technologyto reduce travel time. Then-CEO Whitesides told CNBC at that time the company wants to integrate its vehicle into national airspace systems, allowing it to land at airports and link to local transport networks.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河在2020年2月表示，它看到了应用高速全球移动技术来减少旅行时间的“巨大机会”。时任首席执行官怀特塞德斯当时告诉CNBC，该公司希望将其车辆集成到国家空域系统中，使其能够降落在机场并连接到当地交通网络。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street, which once had all buy ratings on SPCE stock, has turned more bearish on the company. Bank of America lowered Virgin Galactic stock to underperform on June 30, noting that the premium already priced into the stock is likely to decline as more space tourism companies go public.</p><p><blockquote>但曾经对SPCE股票给予全部买入评级的华尔街现在对该公司变得更加看跌。6月30日，美国银行将维珍银河股票下调至表现不佳，并指出，随着更多太空旅游公司上市，该股已经定价的溢价可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>More Space SPACs Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>更多太空SPAC即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors in Virgin Galactic stock could soon get another option to invest in space. Founder Richard Branson has hired Credit Suisse Group AG and LionTree LLC to find a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) to take it public, sources told the&nbsp;Wall Street Journalin mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河股票的投资者可能很快就会获得投资太空的另一种选择。消息人士3月中旬告诉《华尔街日报》，创始人理查德·布兰森(Richard Branson)已聘请瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group AG)和LionTree LLC寻找一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)将其上市。</blockquote></p><p> The news came as Virgin Orbit, a spinoff of Virgin Galactic, launched 10 satellites into space on Jan. 17 after a key test flight stumbled in May. Virgin Orbit uses Cosmic Girl, a modified Boeing 747, to take the LauncherOne rocket to an altitude of 35,000 feet, where it is released and ignited to continue on to space.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息传出之际，维珍银河(Virgin Galactic)的子公司维珍轨道(Virgin Orbit)在5月份的一次关键试飞失败后，于1月17日向太空发射了10颗卫星。维珍轨道公司使用改装的波音747“宇宙女孩”(Cosmic Girl)将“发射器一号”火箭带到35,000英尺的高度，在那里释放并点火，继续进入太空。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Orbit and Virgin Galactic were split in 2017 so Virgin Orbit could focus on low-cost launch services for small satellites for the U.S. military and other customers. It already has a $35 million three-launch deal with the Space Force and is working with the Air Force on launches from Guam.</p><p><blockquote>维珍轨道和维珍银河于2017年拆分，因此维珍轨道可以专注于为美国军方和其他客户提供小型卫星的低成本发射服务。它已经与太空军签订了价值3500万美元的三次发射协议，并正在与空军合作从关岛发射。</blockquote></p><p> The space sector is becoming increasingly more crowded, with more opportunities for investors outside of Virgin Galactic as blank check companies plan to take Rocket Lab, Spire Global, and others public.</p><p><blockquote>随着空白支票公司计划将Rocket Lab、Spire Global等公司上市，航天行业变得越来越拥挤，维珍银河以外的投资者将获得更多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股票技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Shares were building a deep cup-with-handle base with a 57.61 buy point but lost support at the50-day lineand 200-day line amid the sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>该股正在以57.61的买入点建立一个深杯形底部，但在抛售中失去了50日线和200日线的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> After diving in every session this past week, SPCE stock ended with a loss of 38.6%, marking the worst weekly drop since its blank-check merger closed.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一周的每个交易日暴跌后，SPCE股价最终下跌38.6%，创下自空白支票合并结束以来最严重的单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic has anIBD Composite Ratingof 45 out of a best-possible 99. The key rating combinesfive other IBD stock ratings.The stock also has a poor 44 EPS Rating.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的IBD综合评级为45分（满分为99分）。关键评级结合了其他五个IBD股票评级。该股的每股收益评级也很差，为44。</blockquote></p><p> The relative strength line spiked after the completion of the test flight in May.</p><p><blockquote>相对强度线在5月份试飞完成后飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has an Accumulation/Distribution rating of D-, indicating more selling than buying by institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>该股的累积/分配评级为D-，表明机构投资者的卖出多于买入。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic stock is ranked No. 25 in IBD's Aerospace/Defense Group.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河股票在IBD航空航天/国防集团中排名第25位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Investors Unload SPCE Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要投资者抛售SPCE股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood's exchange traded funds launched a massive sell-off of Virgin Galactic shares in late March.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的交易所交易基金在3月底发起了对维珍银河股票的大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> ARKX Space Exploration (ARKX) began with 672,000 shares back in March dumped all Virgin Galactic stock by May. Her ARK Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics (ARKQ) ETF sold 1.65 million shares during May and no longer has a position.</p><p><blockquote>ARKX Space Exploration(ARKX)早在3月份就持有672,000股，到5月份就抛售了所有维珍银河股票。她的ARK Autonomous Technology&amp;Robotics(ARKQ)ETF在5月份出售了165万股，并且不再持有头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Branson sold about $150 million worth of shares, about 2.5% of the space tourism company, in mid-April, according to a recent regulatory filing.</p><p><blockquote>根据最近提交的监管文件，布兰森在4月中旬出售了价值约1.5亿美元的股票，约占这家太空旅游公司的2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In early March, Chamath Palihapitiya, the chairman of Virgin Galactic, tweeted that he sold his 6.2 million-share personal stake. The stock was worth about $213 million. But he still owns 15.8 million shares via his special purpose acquisition company, Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings, which took SPCE stock public.</p><p><blockquote>3月初，维珍银河董事长Chamath Palihapitiya在推特上表示，他出售了620万股个人股份。该股票价值约2.13亿美元。但他仍然通过他的特殊目的收购公司Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings拥有1580万股股票，该公司将SPCE股票上市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ramp To Commercial Service</b></p><p><blockquote><b>转为商业服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic unveiled itsSpaceShip III spaceplanein late March. The spaceplane will undergo its own flight test program. Then SpaceShipTwo, the WhiteKnightTwo mothership, and SpaceShipThree will undergo maintenance or improvement.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河于三月下旬推出了Spaceship III太空飞机。这架太空飞机将进行自己的飞行测试计划。然后太空船二号、白骑士二号母舰和太空船三号将进行维护或改进。</blockquote></p><p> Branson's July 11 flight showed off the interior of SpaceShipTwo. Aluminum and carbon-fiber seats are individually sized and the fabric was created by<b>Under Armour</b>(UAA), which also designed Virgin Galactic's spacesuits. A large mirror in the back of the cabin allows astronauts to see themselves weightless during flight. The cabin also features 17 windows and 16 cameras.</p><p><blockquote>布兰森7月11日的飞行展示了太空船二号的内部。铝制和碳纤维座椅尺寸各异，面料由<b>Under Armour</b>（UAA），该公司还设计了维珍银河的宇航服。机舱后部的一面大镜子可以让宇航员在飞行过程中看到自己失重的样子。机舱还设有17个窗户和16个摄像头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic's Space Ambitions With NASA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河与美国宇航局的太空雄心</b></blockquote></p><p> While making strides in commercial space tourism, the company has also been busy racking up deals with NASA. In June 2020, Virgin announced an agreement with the space agency tocreate an astronaut training program. SPCE stock jumped on the news.</p><p><blockquote>在商业太空旅游取得长足进步的同时，该公司也一直忙于与美国宇航局达成交易。2020年6月，维珍航空宣布与航天局达成协议，制定宇航员培训计划。消息传出后，SPCE股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Under the deal, the company will \"develop a new private orbital astronaut readiness program\" for customers looking to go to the International Space Station. Virgin also will find customers that want to buy astronaut missions to the station, book transportation to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a> and perform on-orbit and ground resources tasks.</p><p><blockquote>根据协议，该公司将为希望前往国际空间站的客户“开发一个新的私人轨道宇航员准备计划”。维珍还将寻找想要购买宇航员前往空间站任务的客户，预订前往空间站的交通工具<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a>并执行在轨和地面资源任务。</blockquote></p><p> Last May, Virgin Galactic announced a separate deal with NASA to help develop a sustainable high-Mach supersonic aircraft.</p><p><blockquote>去年5月，维珍银河宣布与NASA达成一项单独协议，帮助开发可持续的高马赫超音速飞机。</blockquote></p><p> NASA, which also performs aeronautics research, has been working on a high-Mach flight, one that doesn't produce a sonic boom, under its Supersonic X-59 program with<b>Lockheed Martin</b>(LMT) Skunk Works. Such technology could make supersonic passenger service more feasible.</p><p><blockquote>NASA也从事航空研究，根据其超音速X-59计划，一直致力于高马赫飞行，这种飞行不会产生音爆<b>洛克希德</b>（LMT）臭鼬工厂。这种技术可以使超音速客运服务更加可行。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic is eyeing that potential market too.&nbsp;In August, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Rolls-Royce to collaborate in designing and developing engine propulsion technology for Mach 3 commercial aircraft. Rolls-Royce built the engine for the Concorde, which flew at Mach 2.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河也在关注这个潜在市场。8月，它与劳斯莱斯签署了一份谅解备忘录，合作设计和开发3马赫商用飞机的发动机推进技术。劳斯莱斯为协和式飞机制造了发动机，协和式飞机的飞行速度为2马赫。</blockquote></p><p> The Rolls-Royce announcement included an initial design concept of the aircraft, which could carry nine to 19 passengers and fly at an altitude above 60,000 feet. Management has said that a Mach 3 aircraft has the potential for travelers to do a round trip in one day between 85% of the most frequently traveled global city pairs.</p><p><blockquote>劳斯莱斯公司的公告包括该飞机的初步设计概念，该飞机可搭载9至19名乘客，飞行高度超过60,000英尺。管理层表示，一架3马赫的飞机有可能让旅客在一天内完成85%最常旅行的全球城市对之间的往返旅行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Management Shake-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管理层改组</b></blockquote></p><p> On March 5, former CEO George Whitesides announced he was stepping down from his role as chief space officer less than a year after the position was formed.</p><p><blockquote>3月5日，前首席执行官乔治·怀特塞德斯(George Whitesides)在首席太空官职位设立不到一年后宣布辞去该职位。</blockquote></p><p> Whiteside's departure isn't the only recent management change for Virgin Galactic. CFO Jon Campagna stepped down on March 1 and was replaced by Doug Ahrens, who had served as CFO of chipmaker Mellanox.</p><p><blockquote>怀特塞德的离职并不是维珍银河最近唯一的管理层变动。首席财务官Jon Campagna于3月1日辞职，由曾担任芯片制造商Mellanox首席财务官的Doug Ahrens接任。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic named Swami Iyer as president of aerospace systems and Stephen Justice as vice president of engineering. Justice previously worked at Lockheed's top secret Skunk Works research facility.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河任命Swami Iyer为航空航天系统总裁，Stephen Justice为工程副总裁。贾斯蒂斯此前曾在洛克希德公司的绝密臭鼬工厂研究机构工作。</blockquote></p><p> And in July 2020, Virgin Galactic appointedMichael Colglazier as the new CEO. In his previous role as president of<b>Disney</b>(DIS) Parks International, Colglazier was responsible for operations, strategy, and commercial and experiential development of the company's parks and resorts.</p><p><blockquote>2020年7月，维珍银河任命Michael Colglazier为新任首席执行官。在他之前担任主席期间<b>迪斯尼</b>(DIS)Parks International，Colglazier负责公司公园和度假村的运营、战略以及商业和体验开发。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is SPCE Stock A Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股票值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While IBD typically advises investors to focus on companies with strong earnings growth, newly public companies can also merit attention if they show strong revenue growth. Virgin Galactic, however, has neither.</p><p><blockquote>虽然IBD通常建议投资者关注盈利增长强劲的公司，但如果新上市公司表现出强劲的收入增长，也值得关注。然而，维珍银河两者都没有。</blockquote></p><p> While it has NASA contracts under its belt and its powered test flight reached space, commercial service has been delayed until 2022. SPCE stock is not in buy range, yet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然它拥有美国宇航局的合同，并且其动力试飞到达了太空，但商业服务已被推迟到2022年。SPCE股票尚未处于买入范围。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: Virgin Galactic stock is not a buy underCAN SLIMcriteria and it is not yet in a buy zone.</p><p><blockquote>底线：维珍银河股票不属于买入范围，也不属于买入区域。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Virgin Galactic Stock A Buy After Worst Week Ever?<blockquote>在经历了有史以来最糟糕的一周之后，维珍银河股票值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Virgin Galactic Stock A Buy After Worst Week Ever?<blockquote>在经历了有史以来最糟糕的一周之后，维珍银河股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Virgin Galactic&nbsp;Stock&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;6%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河股价在盘前交易中下跌超过6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624c4224524bb93e11d391b9cc1f8db4\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic</b>(SPCE) launched&nbsp;founder Richard Branson into space on July 11, ahead of Blue Origin's Jeff Bezos.So, is SPCE stock a good buy? For the answer, take a look at the space company's earnings and stock chart.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河</b>(SPCE)于7月11日将创始人Richard Branson送入太空，先于蓝色起源的杰夫·贝索斯。那么，SPCE股票值得买入吗？要找到答案，请看一下这家航天公司的收益和股票图表。</blockquote></p><p> But on July 12, Virgin Galactic filed a regulatory notice that itplans to sell up to $500 million in stock. That triggered the worst weekly sell-off since SPCE stock became public.</p><p><blockquote>但7月12日，维珍银河提交了一份监管通知，计划出售最多5亿美元的股票。这引发了自SPCE股票上市以来最严重的每周抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic Stock Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE stock debuted on the NYSE on Oct. 28 2019, becoming the first publicly traded commercial space tourism company after a reverse merger with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE股票于2019年10月28日在纽约证券交易所上市，成为与社会资本Hedosophia Holdings反向合并后第一家上市的商业太空旅游公司。</blockquote></p><p> But it is still not flying paying passengers to the edge of space yet, so there is no revenue coming in and losses are piling up. On May 10, Virgin Galactic reported a Q1 per-share loss of 55 cents, missing Wall Street expectations for a loss of 31 cents a share and widening from 30 cents a year ago, on no revenue. Available cash slipped to $617 million from $666 million in Q4. The company expects free cash outflow to worsen to $60 million in Q2 from $50 million in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>但它仍然没有将付费乘客运送到太空边缘，因此没有收入，损失也在不断增加。5月10日，维珍银河公布第一季度每股亏损55美分，低于华尔街预期的每股亏损31美分，较一年前的30美分有所扩大，且没有收入。可用现金从第四季度的6.66亿美元下滑至6.17亿美元。该公司预计第二季度自由现金流出将从第一季度的5000万美元恶化至6000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the July 11 test flight was a key step toward the start of commercial service. The flight evaluated the customer cabin with a full crew, demonstrated the conditions for conducting human-tended experiments, and confirmed that the training program at Spaceport America supports spaceflight. Virgin Galactic has two more flights, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> with the Italian Air Force, to close out its test program. It plans to start commercial service in early 2022.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，7月11日的试飞是开始商业服务的关键一步。这次飞行评估了全机组人员的客户客舱，展示了进行人工管理实验的条件，并确认了美国航天港的培训计划支持航天飞行。维珍银河还有两个航班，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>与意大利空军合作，结束其测试计划。它计划于2022年初开始商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic has lined up further scientific research flights, another key revenue stream for the commercial space company. A researcher for the International Institute for Astronautical Sciences will conduct experiments with new healthcare technologies during a space flight that could happen as early as next year. A future NASA-funded research mission will include a planetary scientist. So far, it is unclear how much each seat on the research flights will cost.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河已经安排了进一步的科学研究飞行，这是这家商业航天公司的另一个关键收入来源。国际航天科学研究所的一名研究人员将在最早可能于明年进行的太空飞行中进行新医疗技术的实验。未来美国宇航局资助的研究任务将包括一名行星科学家。到目前为止，还不清楚研究航班上每个座位的价格是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic will report Q2 results after the market closes on Aug. 5. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the company to report a loss of 33 cents per share vs. a 30 cent-per-share loss in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is seen rising to $400,000 from none a year ago. Virgin has not started revenue-generating flights but has some small revenue streams outside of commercial flights.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河将于8月5日收盘后公布第二季度业绩。FactSet调查的分析师预计该公司每股亏损33美分，而去年同期每股亏损30美分。收入预计将从一年前的零增加到40万美元。维珍航空尚未开始创收航班，但在商业航班之外有一些小额收入来源。</blockquote></p><p> While the company began as a space tourism company, analysts have also notedVirgin Galactic's potential in hypersonic point-to-point travel, by using its space plane to take passengers across continents in a fraction of the time it takes today.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司最初是一家太空旅游公司，但分析师也注意到了维珍银河在高超音速点对点旅行方面的潜力，通过使用其太空飞机将乘客运送到各大洲，所需时间只是今天的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin is partnering with<b>Boeing</b>(BA), whose venture capital arm HorizonX has a $20 million minority stake in Virgin Galactic, in high-speed travel.</p><p><blockquote>维珍正在与<b>波音公司</b>(BA)旗下风险投资部门HorizonX持有维珍银河价值2000万美元的少数股权。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic said in February 2020 that it sees a\"huge opportunity\" to apply high-speed global mobility technologyto reduce travel time. Then-CEO Whitesides told CNBC at that time the company wants to integrate its vehicle into national airspace systems, allowing it to land at airports and link to local transport networks.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河在2020年2月表示，它看到了应用高速全球移动技术来减少旅行时间的“巨大机会”。时任首席执行官怀特塞德斯当时告诉CNBC，该公司希望将其车辆集成到国家空域系统中，使其能够降落在机场并连接到当地交通网络。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street, which once had all buy ratings on SPCE stock, has turned more bearish on the company. Bank of America lowered Virgin Galactic stock to underperform on June 30, noting that the premium already priced into the stock is likely to decline as more space tourism companies go public.</p><p><blockquote>但曾经对SPCE股票给予全部买入评级的华尔街现在对该公司变得更加看跌。6月30日，美国银行将维珍银河股票下调至表现不佳，并指出，随着更多太空旅游公司上市，该股已经定价的溢价可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>More Space SPACs Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>更多太空SPAC即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors in Virgin Galactic stock could soon get another option to invest in space. Founder Richard Branson has hired Credit Suisse Group AG and LionTree LLC to find a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) to take it public, sources told the&nbsp;Wall Street Journalin mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河股票的投资者可能很快就会获得投资太空的另一种选择。消息人士3月中旬告诉《华尔街日报》，创始人理查德·布兰森(Richard Branson)已聘请瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group AG)和LionTree LLC寻找一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)将其上市。</blockquote></p><p> The news came as Virgin Orbit, a spinoff of Virgin Galactic, launched 10 satellites into space on Jan. 17 after a key test flight stumbled in May. Virgin Orbit uses Cosmic Girl, a modified Boeing 747, to take the LauncherOne rocket to an altitude of 35,000 feet, where it is released and ignited to continue on to space.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息传出之际，维珍银河(Virgin Galactic)的子公司维珍轨道(Virgin Orbit)在5月份的一次关键试飞失败后，于1月17日向太空发射了10颗卫星。维珍轨道公司使用改装的波音747“宇宙女孩”(Cosmic Girl)将“发射器一号”火箭带到35,000英尺的高度，在那里释放并点火，继续进入太空。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Orbit and Virgin Galactic were split in 2017 so Virgin Orbit could focus on low-cost launch services for small satellites for the U.S. military and other customers. It already has a $35 million three-launch deal with the Space Force and is working with the Air Force on launches from Guam.</p><p><blockquote>维珍轨道和维珍银河于2017年拆分，因此维珍轨道可以专注于为美国军方和其他客户提供小型卫星的低成本发射服务。它已经与太空军签订了价值3500万美元的三次发射协议，并正在与空军合作从关岛发射。</blockquote></p><p> The space sector is becoming increasingly more crowded, with more opportunities for investors outside of Virgin Galactic as blank check companies plan to take Rocket Lab, Spire Global, and others public.</p><p><blockquote>随着空白支票公司计划将Rocket Lab、Spire Global等公司上市，航天行业变得越来越拥挤，维珍银河以外的投资者将获得更多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股票技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Shares were building a deep cup-with-handle base with a 57.61 buy point but lost support at the50-day lineand 200-day line amid the sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>该股正在以57.61的买入点建立一个深杯形底部，但在抛售中失去了50日线和200日线的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> After diving in every session this past week, SPCE stock ended with a loss of 38.6%, marking the worst weekly drop since its blank-check merger closed.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一周的每个交易日暴跌后，SPCE股价最终下跌38.6%，创下自空白支票合并结束以来最严重的单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic has anIBD Composite Ratingof 45 out of a best-possible 99. The key rating combinesfive other IBD stock ratings.The stock also has a poor 44 EPS Rating.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的IBD综合评级为45分（满分为99分）。关键评级结合了其他五个IBD股票评级。该股的每股收益评级也很差，为44。</blockquote></p><p> The relative strength line spiked after the completion of the test flight in May.</p><p><blockquote>相对强度线在5月份试飞完成后飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has an Accumulation/Distribution rating of D-, indicating more selling than buying by institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>该股的累积/分配评级为D-，表明机构投资者的卖出多于买入。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic stock is ranked No. 25 in IBD's Aerospace/Defense Group.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河股票在IBD航空航天/国防集团中排名第25位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Investors Unload SPCE Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要投资者抛售SPCE股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Cathie Wood's exchange traded funds launched a massive sell-off of Virgin Galactic shares in late March.</p><p><blockquote>Cathie Wood的交易所交易基金在3月底发起了对维珍银河股票的大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> ARKX Space Exploration (ARKX) began with 672,000 shares back in March dumped all Virgin Galactic stock by May. Her ARK Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics (ARKQ) ETF sold 1.65 million shares during May and no longer has a position.</p><p><blockquote>ARKX Space Exploration(ARKX)早在3月份就持有672,000股，到5月份就抛售了所有维珍银河股票。她的ARK Autonomous Technology&amp;Robotics(ARKQ)ETF在5月份出售了165万股，并且不再持有头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Branson sold about $150 million worth of shares, about 2.5% of the space tourism company, in mid-April, according to a recent regulatory filing.</p><p><blockquote>根据最近提交的监管文件，布兰森在4月中旬出售了价值约1.5亿美元的股票，约占这家太空旅游公司的2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In early March, Chamath Palihapitiya, the chairman of Virgin Galactic, tweeted that he sold his 6.2 million-share personal stake. The stock was worth about $213 million. But he still owns 15.8 million shares via his special purpose acquisition company, Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings, which took SPCE stock public.</p><p><blockquote>3月初，维珍银河董事长Chamath Palihapitiya在推特上表示，他出售了620万股个人股份。该股票价值约2.13亿美元。但他仍然通过他的特殊目的收购公司Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings拥有1580万股股票，该公司将SPCE股票上市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ramp To Commercial Service</b></p><p><blockquote><b>转为商业服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic unveiled itsSpaceShip III spaceplanein late March. The spaceplane will undergo its own flight test program. Then SpaceShipTwo, the WhiteKnightTwo mothership, and SpaceShipThree will undergo maintenance or improvement.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河于三月下旬推出了Spaceship III太空飞机。这架太空飞机将进行自己的飞行测试计划。然后太空船二号、白骑士二号母舰和太空船三号将进行维护或改进。</blockquote></p><p> Branson's July 11 flight showed off the interior of SpaceShipTwo. Aluminum and carbon-fiber seats are individually sized and the fabric was created by<b>Under Armour</b>(UAA), which also designed Virgin Galactic's spacesuits. A large mirror in the back of the cabin allows astronauts to see themselves weightless during flight. The cabin also features 17 windows and 16 cameras.</p><p><blockquote>布兰森7月11日的飞行展示了太空船二号的内部。铝制和碳纤维座椅尺寸各异，面料由<b>Under Armour</b>（UAA），该公司还设计了维珍银河的宇航服。机舱后部的一面大镜子可以让宇航员在飞行过程中看到自己失重的样子。机舱还设有17个窗户和16个摄像头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic's Space Ambitions With NASA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河与美国宇航局的太空雄心</b></blockquote></p><p> While making strides in commercial space tourism, the company has also been busy racking up deals with NASA. In June 2020, Virgin announced an agreement with the space agency tocreate an astronaut training program. SPCE stock jumped on the news.</p><p><blockquote>在商业太空旅游取得长足进步的同时，该公司也一直忙于与美国宇航局达成交易。2020年6月，维珍航空宣布与航天局达成协议，制定宇航员培训计划。消息传出后，SPCE股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Under the deal, the company will \"develop a new private orbital astronaut readiness program\" for customers looking to go to the International Space Station. Virgin also will find customers that want to buy astronaut missions to the station, book transportation to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a> and perform on-orbit and ground resources tasks.</p><p><blockquote>根据协议，该公司将为希望前往国际空间站的客户“开发一个新的私人轨道宇航员准备计划”。维珍还将寻找想要购买宇航员前往空间站任务的客户，预订前往空间站的交通工具<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a>并执行在轨和地面资源任务。</blockquote></p><p> Last May, Virgin Galactic announced a separate deal with NASA to help develop a sustainable high-Mach supersonic aircraft.</p><p><blockquote>去年5月，维珍银河宣布与NASA达成一项单独协议，帮助开发可持续的高马赫超音速飞机。</blockquote></p><p> NASA, which also performs aeronautics research, has been working on a high-Mach flight, one that doesn't produce a sonic boom, under its Supersonic X-59 program with<b>Lockheed Martin</b>(LMT) Skunk Works. Such technology could make supersonic passenger service more feasible.</p><p><blockquote>NASA也从事航空研究，根据其超音速X-59计划，一直致力于高马赫飞行，这种飞行不会产生音爆<b>洛克希德</b>（LMT）臭鼬工厂。这种技术可以使超音速客运服务更加可行。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic is eyeing that potential market too.&nbsp;In August, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Rolls-Royce to collaborate in designing and developing engine propulsion technology for Mach 3 commercial aircraft. Rolls-Royce built the engine for the Concorde, which flew at Mach 2.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河也在关注这个潜在市场。8月，它与劳斯莱斯签署了一份谅解备忘录，合作设计和开发3马赫商用飞机的发动机推进技术。劳斯莱斯为协和式飞机制造了发动机，协和式飞机的飞行速度为2马赫。</blockquote></p><p> The Rolls-Royce announcement included an initial design concept of the aircraft, which could carry nine to 19 passengers and fly at an altitude above 60,000 feet. Management has said that a Mach 3 aircraft has the potential for travelers to do a round trip in one day between 85% of the most frequently traveled global city pairs.</p><p><blockquote>劳斯莱斯公司的公告包括该飞机的初步设计概念，该飞机可搭载9至19名乘客，飞行高度超过60,000英尺。管理层表示，一架3马赫的飞机有可能让旅客在一天内完成85%最常旅行的全球城市对之间的往返旅行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Management Shake-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>管理层改组</b></blockquote></p><p> On March 5, former CEO George Whitesides announced he was stepping down from his role as chief space officer less than a year after the position was formed.</p><p><blockquote>3月5日，前首席执行官乔治·怀特塞德斯(George Whitesides)在首席太空官职位设立不到一年后宣布辞去该职位。</blockquote></p><p> Whiteside's departure isn't the only recent management change for Virgin Galactic. CFO Jon Campagna stepped down on March 1 and was replaced by Doug Ahrens, who had served as CFO of chipmaker Mellanox.</p><p><blockquote>怀特塞德的离职并不是维珍银河最近唯一的管理层变动。首席财务官Jon Campagna于3月1日辞职，由曾担任芯片制造商Mellanox首席财务官的Doug Ahrens接任。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic named Swami Iyer as president of aerospace systems and Stephen Justice as vice president of engineering. Justice previously worked at Lockheed's top secret Skunk Works research facility.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河任命Swami Iyer为航空航天系统总裁，Stephen Justice为工程副总裁。贾斯蒂斯此前曾在洛克希德公司的绝密臭鼬工厂研究机构工作。</blockquote></p><p> And in July 2020, Virgin Galactic appointedMichael Colglazier as the new CEO. In his previous role as president of<b>Disney</b>(DIS) Parks International, Colglazier was responsible for operations, strategy, and commercial and experiential development of the company's parks and resorts.</p><p><blockquote>2020年7月，维珍银河任命Michael Colglazier为新任首席执行官。在他之前担任主席期间<b>迪斯尼</b>(DIS)Parks International，Colglazier负责公司公园和度假村的运营、战略以及商业和体验开发。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is SPCE Stock A Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股票值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While IBD typically advises investors to focus on companies with strong earnings growth, newly public companies can also merit attention if they show strong revenue growth. Virgin Galactic, however, has neither.</p><p><blockquote>虽然IBD通常建议投资者关注盈利增长强劲的公司，但如果新上市公司表现出强劲的收入增长，也值得关注。然而，维珍银河两者都没有。</blockquote></p><p> While it has NASA contracts under its belt and its powered test flight reached space, commercial service has been delayed until 2022. SPCE stock is not in buy range, yet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然它拥有美国宇航局的合同，并且其动力试飞到达了太空，但商业服务已被推迟到2022年。SPCE股票尚未处于买入范围。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: Virgin Galactic stock is not a buy underCAN SLIMcriteria and it is not yet in a buy zone.</p><p><blockquote>底线：维珍银河股票不属于买入范围，也不属于买入区域。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/spce-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220\">Investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/spce-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179025434","content_text":"Virgin Galactic Stock fell over 6% in premarket trading.\n\nVirgin Galactic(SPCE) launched founder Richard Branson into space on July 11, ahead of Blue Origin's Jeff Bezos.So, is SPCE stock a good buy? For the answer, take a look at the space company's earnings and stock chart.\nBut on July 12, Virgin Galactic filed a regulatory notice that itplans to sell up to $500 million in stock. That triggered the worst weekly sell-off since SPCE stock became public.\nVirgin Galactic Stock Fundamental Analysis\nSPCE stock debuted on the NYSE on Oct. 28 2019, becoming the first publicly traded commercial space tourism company after a reverse merger with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings.\nBut it is still not flying paying passengers to the edge of space yet, so there is no revenue coming in and losses are piling up. On May 10, Virgin Galactic reported a Q1 per-share loss of 55 cents, missing Wall Street expectations for a loss of 31 cents a share and widening from 30 cents a year ago, on no revenue. Available cash slipped to $617 million from $666 million in Q4. The company expects free cash outflow to worsen to $60 million in Q2 from $50 million in Q1.\nStill, the July 11 test flight was a key step toward the start of commercial service. The flight evaluated the customer cabin with a full crew, demonstrated the conditions for conducting human-tended experiments, and confirmed that the training program at Spaceport America supports spaceflight. Virgin Galactic has two more flights, including one with the Italian Air Force, to close out its test program. It plans to start commercial service in early 2022.\nVirgin Galactic has lined up further scientific research flights, another key revenue stream for the commercial space company. A researcher for the International Institute for Astronautical Sciences will conduct experiments with new healthcare technologies during a space flight that could happen as early as next year. A future NASA-funded research mission will include a planetary scientist. So far, it is unclear how much each seat on the research flights will cost.\nVirgin Galactic will report Q2 results after the market closes on Aug. 5. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the company to report a loss of 33 cents per share vs. a 30 cent-per-share loss in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is seen rising to $400,000 from none a year ago. Virgin has not started revenue-generating flights but has some small revenue streams outside of commercial flights.\nWhile the company began as a space tourism company, analysts have also notedVirgin Galactic's potential in hypersonic point-to-point travel, by using its space plane to take passengers across continents in a fraction of the time it takes today.\nVirgin is partnering withBoeing(BA), whose venture capital arm HorizonX has a $20 million minority stake in Virgin Galactic, in high-speed travel.\nVirgin Galactic said in February 2020 that it sees a\"huge opportunity\" to apply high-speed global mobility technologyto reduce travel time. Then-CEO Whitesides told CNBC at that time the company wants to integrate its vehicle into national airspace systems, allowing it to land at airports and link to local transport networks.\nBut Wall Street, which once had all buy ratings on SPCE stock, has turned more bearish on the company. Bank of America lowered Virgin Galactic stock to underperform on June 30, noting that the premium already priced into the stock is likely to decline as more space tourism companies go public.\nMore Space SPACs Ahead\nInvestors in Virgin Galactic stock could soon get another option to invest in space. Founder Richard Branson has hired Credit Suisse Group AG and LionTree LLC to find a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) to take it public, sources told the Wall Street Journalin mid-March.\nThe news came as Virgin Orbit, a spinoff of Virgin Galactic, launched 10 satellites into space on Jan. 17 after a key test flight stumbled in May. Virgin Orbit uses Cosmic Girl, a modified Boeing 747, to take the LauncherOne rocket to an altitude of 35,000 feet, where it is released and ignited to continue on to space.\nVirgin Orbit and Virgin Galactic were split in 2017 so Virgin Orbit could focus on low-cost launch services for small satellites for the U.S. military and other customers. It already has a $35 million three-launch deal with the Space Force and is working with the Air Force on launches from Guam.\nThe space sector is becoming increasingly more crowded, with more opportunities for investors outside of Virgin Galactic as blank check companies plan to take Rocket Lab, Spire Global, and others public.\nSPCE Stock Technical Analysis\nShares were building a deep cup-with-handle base with a 57.61 buy point but lost support at the50-day lineand 200-day line amid the sell-off.\nAfter diving in every session this past week, SPCE stock ended with a loss of 38.6%, marking the worst weekly drop since its blank-check merger closed.\nVirgin Galactic has anIBD Composite Ratingof 45 out of a best-possible 99. The key rating combinesfive other IBD stock ratings.The stock also has a poor 44 EPS Rating.\nThe relative strength line spiked after the completion of the test flight in May.\nThe stock has an Accumulation/Distribution rating of D-, indicating more selling than buying by institutional investors.\nVirgin Galactic stock is ranked No. 25 in IBD's Aerospace/Defense Group.\nKey Investors Unload SPCE Stock\nCathie Wood's exchange traded funds launched a massive sell-off of Virgin Galactic shares in late March.\nARKX Space Exploration (ARKX) began with 672,000 shares back in March dumped all Virgin Galactic stock by May. Her ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics (ARKQ) ETF sold 1.65 million shares during May and no longer has a position.\nBranson sold about $150 million worth of shares, about 2.5% of the space tourism company, in mid-April, according to a recent regulatory filing.\nIn early March, Chamath Palihapitiya, the chairman of Virgin Galactic, tweeted that he sold his 6.2 million-share personal stake. The stock was worth about $213 million. But he still owns 15.8 million shares via his special purpose acquisition company, Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings, which took SPCE stock public.\nRamp To Commercial Service\nVirgin Galactic unveiled itsSpaceShip III spaceplanein late March. The spaceplane will undergo its own flight test program. Then SpaceShipTwo, the WhiteKnightTwo mothership, and SpaceShipThree will undergo maintenance or improvement.\nBranson's July 11 flight showed off the interior of SpaceShipTwo. Aluminum and carbon-fiber seats are individually sized and the fabric was created byUnder Armour(UAA), which also designed Virgin Galactic's spacesuits. A large mirror in the back of the cabin allows astronauts to see themselves weightless during flight. The cabin also features 17 windows and 16 cameras.\nVirgin Galactic's Space Ambitions With NASA\nWhile making strides in commercial space tourism, the company has also been busy racking up deals with NASA. In June 2020, Virgin announced an agreement with the space agency tocreate an astronaut training program. SPCE stock jumped on the news.\nUnder the deal, the company will \"develop a new private orbital astronaut readiness program\" for customers looking to go to the International Space Station. Virgin also will find customers that want to buy astronaut missions to the station, book transportation to the ISS and perform on-orbit and ground resources tasks.\nLast May, Virgin Galactic announced a separate deal with NASA to help develop a sustainable high-Mach supersonic aircraft.\nNASA, which also performs aeronautics research, has been working on a high-Mach flight, one that doesn't produce a sonic boom, under its Supersonic X-59 program withLockheed Martin(LMT) Skunk Works. Such technology could make supersonic passenger service more feasible.\nVirgin Galactic is eyeing that potential market too. In August, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Rolls-Royce to collaborate in designing and developing engine propulsion technology for Mach 3 commercial aircraft. Rolls-Royce built the engine for the Concorde, which flew at Mach 2.\nThe Rolls-Royce announcement included an initial design concept of the aircraft, which could carry nine to 19 passengers and fly at an altitude above 60,000 feet. Management has said that a Mach 3 aircraft has the potential for travelers to do a round trip in one day between 85% of the most frequently traveled global city pairs.\nManagement Shake-Up\nOn March 5, former CEO George Whitesides announced he was stepping down from his role as chief space officer less than a year after the position was formed.\nWhiteside's departure isn't the only recent management change for Virgin Galactic. CFO Jon Campagna stepped down on March 1 and was replaced by Doug Ahrens, who had served as CFO of chipmaker Mellanox.\nVirgin Galactic named Swami Iyer as president of aerospace systems and Stephen Justice as vice president of engineering. Justice previously worked at Lockheed's top secret Skunk Works research facility.\nAnd in July 2020, Virgin Galactic appointedMichael Colglazier as the new CEO. In his previous role as president ofDisney(DIS) Parks International, Colglazier was responsible for operations, strategy, and commercial and experiential development of the company's parks and resorts.\nIs SPCE Stock A Buy?\nWhile IBD typically advises investors to focus on companies with strong earnings growth, newly public companies can also merit attention if they show strong revenue growth. Virgin Galactic, however, has neither.\nWhile it has NASA contracts under its belt and its powered test flight reached space, commercial service has been delayed until 2022. SPCE stock is not in buy range, yet.\nBottom line: Virgin Galactic stock is not a buy underCAN SLIMcriteria and it is not yet in a buy zone.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179730276,"gmtCreate":1626575804295,"gmtModify":1631884141753,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I love&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a>products&nbsp;","listText":"I love&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a>products&nbsp;","text":"I love $Alphabet(GOOGL)$products","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b3c4e2ff2b8e8a534574d9233721f5d","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179730276","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179730925,"gmtCreate":1626575767967,"gmtModify":1633925757895,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I hope tomorrow will be bullish&nbsp;","listText":"I hope tomorrow will be bullish&nbsp;","text":"I hope tomorrow will be bullish","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a58185707ea451fdde4f957b212d16","width":"720","height":"1499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179730925","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170041161,"gmtCreate":1626397125153,"gmtModify":1633927154394,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>unfortunately tech sector on bear market on last market day","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>unfortunately tech sector on bear market on last market day","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$unfortunately tech sector on bear market on last market day","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9007313adc7db394165aa6ed7c8220e2","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170041161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170053404,"gmtCreate":1626396776108,"gmtModify":1631885865090,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"is&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>undervalued?","listText":"is&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$Intel(INTC)$</a>undervalued?","text":"is $Intel(INTC)$undervalued?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/994d0ce0df90ff83e9fc7a9be9a3c43c","width":"720","height":"2118"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170053404","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147853442,"gmtCreate":1626352175386,"gmtModify":1631884141767,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a>nicee","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$</a>nicee","text":"$Alphabet(GOOGL)$nicee","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c8192a504ccfbc650339f1055653d83","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147853442","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144001277,"gmtCreate":1626250649699,"gmtModify":1633928633582,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144001277","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":146024279,"gmtCreate":1626045839691,"gmtModify":1633930784920,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"the flight was so successful, the Unity22 spaceship could bring sir Richard Branson to the space with $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ to the moon.","listText":"the flight was so successful, the Unity22 spaceship could bring sir Richard Branson to the space with $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ to the moon.","text":"the flight was so successful, the Unity22 spaceship could bring sir Richard Branson to the space with $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ to the moon.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146024279","repostId":"2150025553","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169054880,"gmtCreate":1623810171540,"gmtModify":1634027764757,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment and like please, on exchange I will like and comment your post&nbsp;","listText":"comment and like please, on exchange I will like and comment your post&nbsp;","text":"comment and like please, on exchange I will like and comment your post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169054880","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153157441,"gmtCreate":1625014867383,"gmtModify":1633945862015,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"aapl to the moon","listText":"aapl to the moon","text":"aapl to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153157441","repostId":"1108987496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184087259,"gmtCreate":1623678258971,"gmtModify":1634030218041,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184087259","repostId":"2143787712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146053233,"gmtCreate":1626046066922,"gmtModify":1633930780982,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unity22 successfully bring sir Richard Branson to the space!!! obviously&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>will go the moon","listText":"Unity22 successfully bring sir Richard Branson to the space!!! obviously&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>will go the moon","text":"Unity22 successfully bring sir Richard Branson to the space!!! obviously $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$will go the moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03fe5cce559c958ccd8f22c519e91f4","width":"720","height":"2118"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146053233","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148182444,"gmtCreate":1625960539488,"gmtModify":1633931421006,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"majority of the stock has high level of debt and not profitable yet, I don't want bet my money on them","listText":"majority of the stock has high level of debt and not profitable yet, I don't want bet my money on them","text":"majority of the stock has high level of debt and not profitable yet, I don't want bet my money on them","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148182444","repostId":"2150370120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165575677,"gmtCreate":1624153777999,"gmtModify":1631883986599,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like this comment please, in exchange I will follow and like + comment on one of your post","listText":"like this comment please, in exchange I will follow and like + comment on one of your post","text":"like this comment please, in exchange I will follow and like + comment on one of your post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165575677","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183179436,"gmtCreate":1623317720125,"gmtModify":1634034643641,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183179436","repostId":"1127298356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%，此前曾讨论过激烈的空头挤压...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转为负面，释放全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在周二发表的一份题为“为什么经济不会过热”的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步远离前所未有的大流行活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，<b>从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”</b>我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows<blockquote>高盛解释了为什么无论今天的消费者物价指数显示什么，经济都不会过热</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率自3月初以来首次跌破1.50%，此前曾讨论过激烈的空头挤压...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p><p><blockquote>...随着大流行后的通胀担忧似乎像爆发一样迅速减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p><p><blockquote>这是我们上个月在观察中国信贷冲动崩溃时首次提出的一点，可以说是整个全球再通胀叙事中最重要的变量（见“中国信贷冲动刚刚转为负面，释放全球通缩冲击波”）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p><p><blockquote>...高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在周二发表的一份题为“为什么经济不会过热”的报告中重申了这一点，他在报告中与美联储一样认为，我们迄今为止看到的通胀很可能是暂时的，随着我们进一步远离前所未有的大流行活动削减，价格将再次正常化。</blockquote></p><p> While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不同意——德意志银行也不同意，它认为美联储很快就会释放魏玛恶性通货膨胀，这是我们在2009年3月首次预测的最终结局——但有趣的是，至少在今天，市场似乎正在接受这一观点，从10年期名义利率的崩溃和最近盈亏平衡上升趋势线的突破来看...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p><p><blockquote>...尽管中国的PPI一夜之间达到了雷曼兄弟2008年9月的高点9.0%。</blockquote></p><p> So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p><p><blockquote>那么，高盛认为通胀担忧消退的原因是什么呢？正如Hatzius和策略师Chris Hussey解释的那样，过去的两份就业报告并不令人印象深刻，因为“慷慨的刺激措施以及可能无法简单地处理如此多的新工人，导致重返工作岗位的热潮正在放缓。一方面，随着公司竞相吸引新工人，可用工人的减少应该会推高工资。但在大流行后的复苏中，更有序的就业流动也可能会延长重新开放期，并可能减轻价格的顶线压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p><p><blockquote>通胀担忧消退的另一个原因可能只是时间。高盛表示，随着美国人越来越习惯于回到日常生活中，这种活动的陌生感正在消退。投资者也许更容易想象“正常”会是什么样子。也许这种愿景正在围绕一种“新常态”集体凝聚，这种“新常态”看起来与大流行前的“旧常态”惊人地相似。</blockquote></p><p> Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>哈齐乌斯随后阐述了为什么最近的通胀回升仍将是暂时的：“在工资方面，<b>随着对病毒的恐惧进一步减弱以及每周300美元的福利充值到期，劳动力供应应该会在未来3-6个月内大幅增加——大多数共和党控制的州将在未来几周内到期，其余州将在9月6日到期。”</b></blockquote></p><p> In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，雇主可能会再坚持3个月，直到紧急福利到期，届时他们预计大量工人将扭转劳动力市场的格局，<b>从没有劳动力供应到大量供应。</b></blockquote></p><p> On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p><p><blockquote>在价格方面，高盛削减的核心PCE——不包括30%最极端的月度价格变化，提醒一下上个月通胀飙升主要是由二手车价格和运输服务飙升推动的，或者正如高盛所说的“异常值”——同比仍仅为1.56%，是标准核心PCE利率的一半。这一差距说明了异常值在近期通胀回升中前所未有的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>最终，对高盛来说，过热辩论中最大的问题仍然是美国产出和就业在未来几年是否会大幅高于潜力。如果答案是肯定的，那么通胀确实可能会在更持久的基础上攀升至不良水平。可以预见的是，高盛的答案仍然是否定的，原因如下：“尽管实际GDP几乎回到了大流行前的水平，但基于剩余的近800万个就业岗位缺口和大流行的推动，我们仍然看到经济显着疲软。第一季度生产率同比增长4.1%。此外，我们认为，按月计算，GDP环比增长可能已经见顶，随着财政刺激的减弱，GDP环比增长将呈下降趋势，先是温和，然后在2021年底和2022年大幅下降。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通也加入了进来，经济学家丹·西尔弗(Dan Silver)在最近的一份报告中写道，当我们准备CPI数据时，值得考虑取消联邦失业救济金和增加时薪的影响。在西尔弗的报告中，他说明了低收入工作岗位空缺的增长。</blockquote></p><p> JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通随后提出了正确的问题：“<b>如果企业主知道供应正在恢复，工资上涨会持续吗？”</b>我们以前问过这个问题，答案是决定性的否定。对于摩根大通来说，如果答案确实是否定的，“我们看到工资增长、支出和消费者物价指数的减速速度快于预期。”不过，或者，我们似乎更有可能看到就业岗位激增，绝对宏观数据也可能进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，通胀催化剂方面的下一步是什么？今天的关键CPI数据将显示什么？在此，高盛预计5月份核心CPI将上涨0.50%（与共识一致），这将使同比增长率从3.0%提高十分之六至3.55%，但这在很大程度上受到基数效应崩溃的影响去年。高盛月度核心通胀预测<b>“反映了重新开放推动的机票、酒店价格和娱乐价格走强。”</b>此外，高盛预计二手车（+6%）和新车（+0.5%）的月度数据将强劲，反映出“一次性”供应链中断和微芯片短缺。</blockquote></p><p> And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储更关心PCE通胀而不是CPI，但高盛的结论是，尽管通胀爆发是暂时的，”<b>在一个可能专注于将通胀率保持在2%左右的货币制度中，看看市场对3.5%以上的通胀报告有何反应将会很有趣。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152950963,"gmtCreate":1625265211052,"gmtModify":1633942045701,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hmmm possibility to dip","listText":"hmmm possibility to dip","text":"hmmm possibility to dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152950963","repostId":"1103758343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165573420,"gmtCreate":1624153646660,"gmtModify":1634010243879,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wtf, investing in AAPL is risky, but why most warren buffet portfolios are in AAPL?","listText":"wtf, investing in AAPL is risky, but why most warren buffet portfolios are in AAPL?","text":"wtf, investing in AAPL is risky, but why most warren buffet portfolios are in AAPL?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165573420","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175222172,"gmtCreate":1627036382396,"gmtModify":1633768588937,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nicee","listText":"nicee","text":"nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175222172","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125178537,"gmtCreate":1624666198629,"gmtModify":1633949963725,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125178537","repostId":"1134306371","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167013233,"gmtCreate":1624239056222,"gmtModify":1634009103843,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment 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fly with Boeing 737 Max","listText":"Dont fly with Boeing 737 Max","text":"Dont fly with Boeing 737 Max","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162211407","repostId":"2144086770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173756967,"gmtCreate":1626689768359,"gmtModify":1633924918241,"author":{"id":"3586028403626607","authorId":"3586028403626607","name":"teguh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b02216f3585a2e77b12963e2fdebc3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586028403626607","idStr":"3586028403626607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bad fundamentals, not worth to buy","listText":"bad fundamentals, not worth to buy","text":"bad fundamentals, not worth to 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