Venkisakthi的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Venkisakthi

Venkisakthi

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2021-07-18

It’s the future

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-16

Good

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2021-07-09

Is split up anytime soon

Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo<blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%，与 Thoma Bravo 达成 6.6B 美元现金交易，以每股 330 美元的价格私有化</blockquote>

2021-07-05

Thanks for letting us know upfront ..

Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股市是开市还是休市？</blockquote>

2021-07-03

I hope it will turn around..

Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>

2021-07-03

Cool..

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2021-07-02

Amazon cloud would miss a big customer

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2021-06-30

Sure..

Cloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare比您想象的更具可扩展性</blockquote>

2021-06-27

Yes.. my vote for Ford too

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-22

Not bad..

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2021-06-20

As Always [USD]

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split up anytime soon","listText":"Is split up anytime soon","text":"Is split up anytime soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141921285","repostId":"1132560832","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132560832","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625831887,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132560832?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 19:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo<blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%，与 Thoma Bravo 达成 6.6B 美元现金交易，以每股 330 美元的价格私有化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132560832","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash d","content":"<p>Stamps.com&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;14%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo.</p><p><blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%， 在与 Thoma Bravo 达成的 6.6B 美元现金交易中以每股 330 美元的价格私有化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f161f070e63ab83519e4d884ce773d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stamps.com(NASDAQ:STMP)stockholders toreceive $330.00 per share in cash.</li>  <li>The offer price per share represents a&nbsp;<b>premium of 66.9% over Stamps.com's closing share price</b>&nbsp;on July 08, 2021.</li>  <li>Stamps.com’s Board of Directors has unanimously approved the agreement with Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>Post-completion, Stamps.com will become a private company with the flexibility and resources to provide global e-commerce technology solutions.</li>  <li>Additionally, Stamps.com will benefit from the operating capabilities, capital support, and deep sector expertise of Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>The agreement includes a 40-day “go-shop” period expiring August 18, 2021, allowing the Board and its advisors to actively initiate, solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals from third parties.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in Q3'21, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Stamps.com stockholders and receipt of regulatory approvals.</li>  <li>Stamps.com to resume trading at 8 a.m. ET</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Stamps.com（纳斯达克股票代码：STMP）股东将收到每股 330.00 美元的现金。</li><li>每股发售价指<b>较 Stamps.com 收盘价溢价 66.9%</b>2021年7月8日。</li><li>Stamps.com 董事会一致批准了与 Thoma Bravo 的协议。</li><li>完成后，Stamps.com将成为一家私营公司，拥有提供全球电子商务技术解决方案的灵活性和资源。</li><li>此外，Stamps.com 将受益于 Thoma Bravo 的运营能力、资本支持和深厚的行业专业知识。</li><li>该协议包括一个 40 天的 “购物 ”期，将于 2021 年 8 月 18 日到期，允许董事会及其顾问积极发起、征求和考虑第三方的替代收购提案。</li><li>该交易预计将于 2021 年第三季度完成，但须满足惯例成交条件，包括 Stamps.com 股东的批准和收到监管部门的批准。</li><li>Stamps.com 将于美国东部时间上午 8 点恢复交易</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo<blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%，与 Thoma Bravo 达成 6.6B 美元现金交易，以每股 330 美元的价格私有化</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo<blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%，与 Thoma Bravo 达成 6.6B 美元现金交易，以每股 330 美元的价格私有化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 19:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stamps.com&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;14%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo.</p><p><blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%， 在与 Thoma Bravo 达成的 6.6B 美元现金交易中以每股 330 美元的价格私有化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f161f070e63ab83519e4d884ce773d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stamps.com(NASDAQ:STMP)stockholders toreceive $330.00 per share in cash.</li>  <li>The offer price per share represents a&nbsp;<b>premium of 66.9% over Stamps.com's closing share price</b>&nbsp;on July 08, 2021.</li>  <li>Stamps.com’s Board of Directors has unanimously approved the agreement with Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>Post-completion, Stamps.com will become a private company with the flexibility and resources to provide global e-commerce technology solutions.</li>  <li>Additionally, Stamps.com will benefit from the operating capabilities, capital support, and deep sector expertise of Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>The agreement includes a 40-day “go-shop” period expiring August 18, 2021, allowing the Board and its advisors to actively initiate, solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals from third parties.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in Q3'21, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Stamps.com stockholders and receipt of regulatory approvals.</li>  <li>Stamps.com to resume trading at 8 a.m. ET</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Stamps.com（纳斯达克股票代码：STMP）股东将收到每股 330.00 美元的现金。</li><li>每股发售价指<b>较 Stamps.com 收盘价溢价 66.9%</b>2021年7月8日。</li><li>Stamps.com 董事会一致批准了与 Thoma Bravo 的协议。</li><li>完成后，Stamps.com将成为一家私营公司，拥有提供全球电子商务技术解决方案的灵活性和资源。</li><li>此外，Stamps.com 将受益于 Thoma Bravo 的运营能力、资本支持和深厚的行业专业知识。</li><li>该协议包括一个 40 天的 “购物 ”期，将于 2021 年 8 月 18 日到期，允许董事会及其顾问积极发起、征求和考虑第三方的替代收购提案。</li><li>该交易预计将于 2021 年第三季度完成，但须满足惯例成交条件，包括 Stamps.com 股东的批准和收到监管部门的批准。</li><li>Stamps.com 将于美国东部时间上午 8 点恢复交易</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132560832","content_text":"Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo.\n\n\nStamps.com(NASDAQ:STMP)stockholders toreceive $330.00 per share in cash.\nThe offer price per share represents a premium of 66.9% over Stamps.com's closing share price on July 08, 2021.\nStamps.com’s Board of Directors has unanimously approved the agreement with Thoma Bravo.\nPost-completion, Stamps.com will become a private company with the flexibility and resources to provide global e-commerce technology solutions.\nAdditionally, Stamps.com will benefit from the operating capabilities, capital support, and deep sector expertise of Thoma Bravo.\nThe agreement includes a 40-day “go-shop” period expiring August 18, 2021, allowing the Board and its advisors to actively initiate, solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals from third parties.\nThe transaction is expected to close in Q3'21, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Stamps.com stockholders and receipt of regulatory approvals.\nStamps.com to resume trading at 8 a.m. ET","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STMP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154373031,"gmtCreate":1625484839623,"gmtModify":1633940298409,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for letting us know upfront ..","listText":"Thanks for letting us know upfront ..","text":"Thanks for letting us know upfront ..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154373031","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109703914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625464355,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109703914?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股市是开市还是休市？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109703914","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.It's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading i","content":"<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年的7月4日是星期天，在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么主要市场在假期会开放还是关闭呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整收盘日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11 月 26 日星期五，交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 1 点，为期半天多一点。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 4 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股市是开市还是休市？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股市是开市还是休市？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年的7月4日是星期天，在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么主要市场在假期会开放还是关闭呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整收盘日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11 月 26 日星期五，交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 1 点，为期半天多一点。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 4 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109703914","content_text":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the holiday?\nThe New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.\nIt's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.\nFor instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.\nNormal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152515087,"gmtCreate":1625311350849,"gmtModify":1633941552101,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I hope it will turn around..","listText":"I hope it will turn around..","text":"I hope it will turn around..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152515087","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152512579,"gmtCreate":1625311207291,"gmtModify":1633941552465,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Cool..&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Cool..&nbsp;","text":"Cool..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152512579","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156764523,"gmtCreate":1625237378962,"gmtModify":1633942175236,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazon cloud would miss a big customer","listText":"Amazon cloud would miss a big customer","text":"Amazon cloud would miss a big customer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156764523","repostId":"2148803897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151002987,"gmtCreate":1625055316649,"gmtModify":1633945409251,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sure..","listText":"Sure..","text":"Sure..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151002987","repostId":"1181301986","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181301986","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625043232,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181301986?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 16:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare比您想象的更具可扩展性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181301986","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.\nWhile Cloud","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.</li>  <li>While Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.</li>  <li>We present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.</li>  <li>While we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd63105e871f3b7086e6743081853b5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\"><span>Steve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为投资者并没有很好地理解 Cloudflare 的商业模式。</li><li>虽然Cloudflare在内容交付网络领域运营，但它从未将自己定位为CDN玩家。</li><li>我们对 Cloudflare 所代表的意义进行了更清晰的阐述，以便投资者能够更恰当地理解该公司商业模式的高可扩展性。</li><li>虽然我们认为 Cloudflare 即使在当前价格水平上也能表现出色，但我们更愿意仅在下一次回撤时进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>史蒂夫·詹宁斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Cloudflare's Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Cloudflare的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like&nbsp;Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”</p><p><blockquote>对于不同的投资者来说，Cloudflare (NET) 已经像许多事情一样为人所知。我们已经看到投资者将Cloudflare归类为云或网络安全公司、内容交付网络[CDN]或身份访问管理[IAM]公司。事实是，虽然Cloudflare参与了所有这些，但该公司实际上拥有更大的经营规模。Cloudflare 将自己视为 “一家网络公司”，“你必须把 [Cloudflare] 看作思科即服务。无论你在哪里购买和收购硬件，无论是防火墙、路由器、负载平衡器还是 VPN，我们都通过我们的网络提供这种服务。而这个网络现在已经被屏蔽了”。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，首席执行官马修·普林斯强调：</blockquote></p><p>   So the reason that we picked the&nbsp;ticker symbol NET&nbsp;was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have.  We think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们选择股票代码网的原因是因为，从根本上说，我们销售的是您插入的网络，然后您不必担心其他任何事情。这就是我们想要传达的。所以其中一部分是你要确保你有一个快速的网络。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个可靠的网络。但其中很大一部分是你要确保你有一个网络来帮助你解决你的安全问题。我们认为，Cloudflare 希望投资者清楚地了解公司业务范围的关键原因之一是让投资者对公司仍在扩张的 TAM 有一个适当的战略观点，该公司强调，自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，TAM 一直在扩张。尽管该公司在 2019 年的 TAM 为 37B 美元，但随后上调至 72B 美元，现在该公司正在考虑在未来 3 年内实现 100B 美元的 TAM。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是DDoS防护领域无可争议的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5a18d2b88858258dd3212a23e6a41c4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至4月21日，DDoS和机器人防护软件全球市场份额。数据来源：Datanyze</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and&nbsp;remote browser isolation service&nbsp;(through its&nbsp;S2 Systems Corporation acquisition&nbsp;in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with&nbsp;Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Cloudflare 以 “负载平衡、防火墙、DDoS 缓解服务 ”起家，并且该公司是 DDoS 防护领域无可争议的全球市场领导者，市场份额为 81.4%，但该公司已迅速将其 TAM 扩展到 VPN 和远程浏览器隔离服务（通过 1 月 20 日收购 S2 Systems Corporation），针对这两个市场推出了 Cloudflare for Teams 和浏览器隔离服务，后者也可以添加到其 Teams 产品中。然而，在其第三次 TAM 扩展中，该公司计划通过其 Cloudflare Magic Transitproduct 通过保护公司的内部数据中心来 “破坏企业网络和多协议标签交换 [MPLS]”，该公司进入该扩展是为了破坏 “这个世界的思科 (CSCO)、Fortinets (FTNT)、Check Points (CHKP)、Palo Altos (PANW) 和 Riverbeds ”的高利润据点。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者应该能够清楚地认识到 Cloudflare 商业模式极高的可扩展性，以及它在本土与市场上最大的本地安全公司抗衡的雄心。Magic Transit 将成为公司打入企业部门的关键参与者，因为 “MPLS 支出是我们客户预算中的一个重要项目 ”将有助于公司建立快速增长的企业部门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速扩张的企业部门</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa220975bc1c2c02ff1e97a20a87a09d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Large / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大型/企业客户趋势。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”</p><p><blockquote>该公司无疑在企业领域取得了巨大进步，而企业领域现在是该公司 “增长最快的业务”。虽然截至 21 年第一季度，该细分市场拥有 945 家企业客户（与 18 年第一季度相比，该细分市场的复合年增长率为 69%），但与 119,206 家客户相比，该细分市场现在占公司收入的大部分，正如 Cloudflare 所强调的那样： “这现在占我们收入的 50%，略高于 50%”。事实上，仅凭图表并不能完全反映公司在这一细分市场的渗透能力，因为企业细分市场中较大的付费客户增长速度更快，Cloudflare 进一步补充道： “让我们看看年收入超过 50 万美元甚至超过 100 万美元的客户，群体越大，增长速度就越快。因此，我们最大的客户群体，即 100 万美元以上的客户，在过去 7 个季度中一直保持在 70% 以上的增长速度”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品扩张有助于维持其 DBNRR</b></blockquote></p><p> While investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可能已经被公司向客户提供的产品或服务的数量或范围所淹没，但 Cloudflare 强调，事实上，“首先，我们拥有的产品越多，扩张就越容易”。当然，该公司一直致力于打造为客户提供重大价值的产品，并看到客户多年来在产品采用阶梯上迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司为客户的产品采用率附上了一个 “神奇数字”：每位客户 4 种产品。该公司强调，在首次公开募股时，70% 的客户每人使用 4 种产品，“但现在这一数字已远远超过 80%。现在，超过 70% 的客户使用 5 种产品。因此，随着产品组合的增加，我们已经能够向现有客户销售更多产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7b20c40180d118295622722286980\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Dollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基于美元的净保留率[DBNRR]。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”</p><p><blockquote>这使得该公司多年来一直保持着其 DBNRR，而在 21 年第一季度，该公司的 DBNRR 达到了过去 3 年最令人印象深刻的 123%。虽然其 DBNRR 符合 SaaS 同行 120% 的中位数，但我们相信，随着越来越多的客户采用更多产品，该公司将继续保持高水平的 DBNRR，“从而[导致]产品的粘性和[使]流失率下降”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare从未被设计成CDN</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者经常将 Cloudflare 与 Fastly (FSLY) 作为内容交付网络 (CDN) 领域的竞争对手进行比较。虽然我们认为 NET 肯定会在该领域与 FSLY 竞争，但该公司特别想提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p>   We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven.  We had recently highlighted in&nbsp;an article on FSLY&nbsp;and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.</p><p><blockquote>我们从来都不是被设计成CDN的。我们必须提供类似CDN的功能，以便在我们的网络边缘提供基于安全性和性能的产品和服务。但CDN是实现这一目标的一种手段，但不是商业模式本身。我们对产品的定价不同。我们没有使用——或者几乎没有任何基于使用的定价。即使在今天，我们的收入中也不到一位数是基于可变计费的。其中，不到1/3是真正由带宽驱动的。我们最近在一篇关于 FSLY 的文章中强调，并提醒投资者，FSLY 不是典型的 SaaS 模式，因为该公司的收入主要来自使用量，而不是订阅。另一方面，NET 的大部分收入来自订阅，因此推动各自业务的收入模式完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”</p><p><blockquote>事实上，基于使用情况的模式的带宽成本不可预测是 NET 选择不采用基于使用情况的收入模式的主要原因之一，因为该公司希望通过以 “可预测和可靠的方式 ”收费的产品来降低成本。然后，Cloudflare 的首要任务将转向寻找方法，通过确保其 “软件定义的网络可以允许我们网络中任何地方的任何服务器运行我们所做的任何不同功能，并能够转移流量，以提供其他人无法比拟的效率”，来 “随着时间的推移，将带宽成本降低到接近于零”。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马修·普林斯也简洁地补充道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses.  Therefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当我认为一家典型的CDN公司担心有多少人会收看超级碗比赛，以及Disney+上的新节目是否会受欢迎时，我整天都在担心来自俄罗斯或伊朗、世界各地的新网络威胁，以及我们如何应对这些威胁。同样，只是完全不同的业务。因此，投资者可以放心，每当 FSLY 失去像我们看到 inTikTokis 这样的大客户时，他们都会忍受的那种使用波动不太可能发生在 NET 上，原因很简单，Cloudflare 不按使用量计费，因此提供了我们对典型 SaaS 公司所期望的那种或收入可见性。</blockquote></p><p> However, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>然而，与 FSLY 基于使用量的计费模式相比，Cloudflare 基于订阅的收入模式并非没有固有的缺点，每当客户使用量大幅激增时，就像该公司去年在大流行病的阵痛中所经历的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business.  <b>Cloudflare's Excellent Margins</b></p><p><blockquote>突然间，我们看到了人们在我们服务中使用的带宽量的急剧上升和急剧激增。与传统的CDN不同，我们不能将这些成本转嫁给我们的客户。因此，我认为这些实际上对我们来说是相当大的阻力，我为我们的团队真正调整、解决客户问题、专注于扩大现有客户并使他们成为更大的客户并随着时间的推移变得更加高效感到自豪。因此，我认为对我们来说的阻力现在正在变成顺风，我们看到带宽使用量趋于稳定，这对我们业务的成本方面很有吸引力。<b>Cloudflare 的出色利润</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dc84122254553246848c5eee09615d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>NET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净利润和 FSLY 毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司不得不应对带宽成本急剧增加的问题，而去年其订阅模式本来就不是为其设计的，但随着时间的推移，该公司仍设法将毛利率始终保持在 75% 以上，轻松超过了 FSLY 基于使用量的收入模式。我们相信，公司的全套网络产品帮助公司实现了收入基础的多元化，这进一步证明了公司商业模式在多个市场和垂直行业中的卓越执行力，增强了公司应对任何意外放缓或意外成本激增的收入弹性。如果投资者将 Cloudflare 视为 “万事通”，我们认为它也可能倾向于将其看涨期权为 “万事通”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计息税前利润和自由现金流盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f441756caaca11d36431b00ab64f090\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"678\"><span>NET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净收入预计意味着共识和预计同比收入增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec9b55dc6e235a1304a54224c0f90b7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计息税前利润率和预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 NET 尚未实现 FCF 和 EBIT 盈利能力，但该公司已设定 20% 的长期营业利润率，在我们的模型中，我们认为随着时间的推移，这是高度可以实现的，因为我们预计该公司将实现 EBIT 利润率到 25 财年末达到 15.7%，特别是当该公司仍有望在未来几年实现 30% 以上的快速增长时。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617eade5b53ed1383b6438691464f52\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET LTM SG&amp;A margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM SG&amp;A 净利润。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&amp;A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.</p><p><blockquote>我们的信心主要基于公司在 SG&amp;A 利润率中所表现出的运营杠杆的持续改善，而 SG&amp;A 利润率一直是公司最大的运营费用部分。我们相信，该公司可能会在未来保持这种改善，这将强烈影响其息税前利润率，并推动公司在未来几年实现息税前利润率和自由现金流盈利。因此，这个派对肯定才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained</p><p><blockquote>如果持续执行，估值将是令人信服的</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c991d9200f0424a6c2739f78335a667e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"726\"><span>NET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净电动汽车 / Fwd 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81c5bc076bc34bcc9135201909e8028\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NET NTM (TEV / Rev).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净NTM（TEV/Rev）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们继续为 NET 卓越的商业模式和世界一流的执行力喝彩，但我们也意识到，精明的市场参与者不太可能忘记这一点。因此，我们对 NET 的 EV / FY+1 Rev 值为 52 倍，而过去一年的平均值约为 35.5 倍并不感到惊讶。根据我们对 NET 未来几年预期收入增长率的计算，我们得出的预期股价 4 年复合年增长率为 19.66%，即使在当前价格水平下，如果该公司能够保持其出色的执行记录并实现其增长目标，未来几年的回报可能会跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff2c1614d64bd26c28b2b3c0c17488\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Projected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>预计 25 财年股价和预计 4 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5eac1f8292520dd62f2d5c23328a0a9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"783\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在去年 9 月以 30 美元左右的价格进入了 NET 的全部头寸，但根据目前的价格走势，我们认为现在没有新投资者的最佳入场点，即使我们认为根据目前的价格水平，NET 可能会继续跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们鼓励在决策中考虑价格走势的投资者先等待回调，而不考虑价格走势的投资者如果对未来几年 NET 的执行情况有高度的信心，现在就可以进场。</blockquote></p><p> While we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不会在当前价格水平上增加更多头寸，但我们肯定会将该股保留在我们的观察名单上，以考虑在下一次回撤时增加我们的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，Cloudflare 一直是投资者真正的优秀公司，我们认为，随着公司在未来几年实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利，公司的增长故事才刚刚开始。NET 的投资者被鼓励坐以待毙，享受未来许多年的稳健增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare比您想象的更具可扩展性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare比您想象的更具可扩展性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 16:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.</li>  <li>While Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.</li>  <li>We present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.</li>  <li>While we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd63105e871f3b7086e6743081853b5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\"><span>Steve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为投资者并没有很好地理解 Cloudflare 的商业模式。</li><li>虽然Cloudflare在内容交付网络领域运营，但它从未将自己定位为CDN玩家。</li><li>我们对 Cloudflare 所代表的意义进行了更清晰的阐述，以便投资者能够更恰当地理解该公司商业模式的高可扩展性。</li><li>虽然我们认为 Cloudflare 即使在当前价格水平上也能表现出色，但我们更愿意仅在下一次回撤时进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>史蒂夫·詹宁斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Cloudflare's Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Cloudflare的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like&nbsp;Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”</p><p><blockquote>对于不同的投资者来说，Cloudflare (NET) 已经像许多事情一样为人所知。我们已经看到投资者将Cloudflare归类为云或网络安全公司、内容交付网络[CDN]或身份访问管理[IAM]公司。事实是，虽然Cloudflare参与了所有这些，但该公司实际上拥有更大的经营规模。Cloudflare 将自己视为 “一家网络公司”，“你必须把 [Cloudflare] 看作思科即服务。无论你在哪里购买和收购硬件，无论是防火墙、路由器、负载平衡器还是 VPN，我们都通过我们的网络提供这种服务。而这个网络现在已经被屏蔽了”。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，首席执行官马修·普林斯强调：</blockquote></p><p>   So the reason that we picked the&nbsp;ticker symbol NET&nbsp;was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have.  We think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们选择股票代码网的原因是因为，从根本上说，我们销售的是您插入的网络，然后您不必担心其他任何事情。这就是我们想要传达的。所以其中一部分是你要确保你有一个快速的网络。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个可靠的网络。但其中很大一部分是你要确保你有一个网络来帮助你解决你的安全问题。我们认为，Cloudflare 希望投资者清楚地了解公司业务范围的关键原因之一是让投资者对公司仍在扩张的 TAM 有一个适当的战略观点，该公司强调，自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，TAM 一直在扩张。尽管该公司在 2019 年的 TAM 为 37B 美元，但随后上调至 72B 美元，现在该公司正在考虑在未来 3 年内实现 100B 美元的 TAM。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是DDoS防护领域无可争议的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5a18d2b88858258dd3212a23e6a41c4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至4月21日，DDoS和机器人防护软件全球市场份额。数据来源：Datanyze</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and&nbsp;remote browser isolation service&nbsp;(through its&nbsp;S2 Systems Corporation acquisition&nbsp;in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with&nbsp;Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Cloudflare 以 “负载平衡、防火墙、DDoS 缓解服务 ”起家，并且该公司是 DDoS 防护领域无可争议的全球市场领导者，市场份额为 81.4%，但该公司已迅速将其 TAM 扩展到 VPN 和远程浏览器隔离服务（通过 1 月 20 日收购 S2 Systems Corporation），针对这两个市场推出了 Cloudflare for Teams 和浏览器隔离服务，后者也可以添加到其 Teams 产品中。然而，在其第三次 TAM 扩展中，该公司计划通过其 Cloudflare Magic Transitproduct 通过保护公司的内部数据中心来 “破坏企业网络和多协议标签交换 [MPLS]”，该公司进入该扩展是为了破坏 “这个世界的思科 (CSCO)、Fortinets (FTNT)、Check Points (CHKP)、Palo Altos (PANW) 和 Riverbeds ”的高利润据点。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者应该能够清楚地认识到 Cloudflare 商业模式极高的可扩展性，以及它在本土与市场上最大的本地安全公司抗衡的雄心。Magic Transit 将成为公司打入企业部门的关键参与者，因为 “MPLS 支出是我们客户预算中的一个重要项目 ”将有助于公司建立快速增长的企业部门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速扩张的企业部门</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa220975bc1c2c02ff1e97a20a87a09d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Large / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大型/企业客户趋势。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”</p><p><blockquote>该公司无疑在企业领域取得了巨大进步，而企业领域现在是该公司 “增长最快的业务”。虽然截至 21 年第一季度，该细分市场拥有 945 家企业客户（与 18 年第一季度相比，该细分市场的复合年增长率为 69%），但与 119,206 家客户相比，该细分市场现在占公司收入的大部分，正如 Cloudflare 所强调的那样： “这现在占我们收入的 50%，略高于 50%”。事实上，仅凭图表并不能完全反映公司在这一细分市场的渗透能力，因为企业细分市场中较大的付费客户增长速度更快，Cloudflare 进一步补充道： “让我们看看年收入超过 50 万美元甚至超过 100 万美元的客户，群体越大，增长速度就越快。因此，我们最大的客户群体，即 100 万美元以上的客户，在过去 7 个季度中一直保持在 70% 以上的增长速度”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品扩张有助于维持其 DBNRR</b></blockquote></p><p> While investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可能已经被公司向客户提供的产品或服务的数量或范围所淹没，但 Cloudflare 强调，事实上，“首先，我们拥有的产品越多，扩张就越容易”。当然，该公司一直致力于打造为客户提供重大价值的产品，并看到客户多年来在产品采用阶梯上迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司为客户的产品采用率附上了一个 “神奇数字”：每位客户 4 种产品。该公司强调，在首次公开募股时，70% 的客户每人使用 4 种产品，“但现在这一数字已远远超过 80%。现在，超过 70% 的客户使用 5 种产品。因此，随着产品组合的增加，我们已经能够向现有客户销售更多产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7b20c40180d118295622722286980\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Dollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基于美元的净保留率[DBNRR]。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”</p><p><blockquote>这使得该公司多年来一直保持着其 DBNRR，而在 21 年第一季度，该公司的 DBNRR 达到了过去 3 年最令人印象深刻的 123%。虽然其 DBNRR 符合 SaaS 同行 120% 的中位数，但我们相信，随着越来越多的客户采用更多产品，该公司将继续保持高水平的 DBNRR，“从而[导致]产品的粘性和[使]流失率下降”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare从未被设计成CDN</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者经常将 Cloudflare 与 Fastly (FSLY) 作为内容交付网络 (CDN) 领域的竞争对手进行比较。虽然我们认为 NET 肯定会在该领域与 FSLY 竞争，但该公司特别想提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p>   We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven.  We had recently highlighted in&nbsp;an article on FSLY&nbsp;and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.</p><p><blockquote>我们从来都不是被设计成CDN的。我们必须提供类似CDN的功能，以便在我们的网络边缘提供基于安全性和性能的产品和服务。但CDN是实现这一目标的一种手段，但不是商业模式本身。我们对产品的定价不同。我们没有使用——或者几乎没有任何基于使用的定价。即使在今天，我们的收入中也不到一位数是基于可变计费的。其中，不到1/3是真正由带宽驱动的。我们最近在一篇关于 FSLY 的文章中强调，并提醒投资者，FSLY 不是典型的 SaaS 模式，因为该公司的收入主要来自使用量，而不是订阅。另一方面，NET 的大部分收入来自订阅，因此推动各自业务的收入模式完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”</p><p><blockquote>事实上，基于使用情况的模式的带宽成本不可预测是 NET 选择不采用基于使用情况的收入模式的主要原因之一，因为该公司希望通过以 “可预测和可靠的方式 ”收费的产品来降低成本。然后，Cloudflare 的首要任务将转向寻找方法，通过确保其 “软件定义的网络可以允许我们网络中任何地方的任何服务器运行我们所做的任何不同功能，并能够转移流量，以提供其他人无法比拟的效率”，来 “随着时间的推移，将带宽成本降低到接近于零”。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马修·普林斯也简洁地补充道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses.  Therefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当我认为一家典型的CDN公司担心有多少人会收看超级碗比赛，以及Disney+上的新节目是否会受欢迎时，我整天都在担心来自俄罗斯或伊朗、世界各地的新网络威胁，以及我们如何应对这些威胁。同样，只是完全不同的业务。因此，投资者可以放心，每当 FSLY 失去像我们看到 inTikTokis 这样的大客户时，他们都会忍受的那种使用波动不太可能发生在 NET 上，原因很简单，Cloudflare 不按使用量计费，因此提供了我们对典型 SaaS 公司所期望的那种或收入可见性。</blockquote></p><p> However, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>然而，与 FSLY 基于使用量的计费模式相比，Cloudflare 基于订阅的收入模式并非没有固有的缺点，每当客户使用量大幅激增时，就像该公司去年在大流行病的阵痛中所经历的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business.  <b>Cloudflare's Excellent Margins</b></p><p><blockquote>突然间，我们看到了人们在我们服务中使用的带宽量的急剧上升和急剧激增。与传统的CDN不同，我们不能将这些成本转嫁给我们的客户。因此，我认为这些实际上对我们来说是相当大的阻力，我为我们的团队真正调整、解决客户问题、专注于扩大现有客户并使他们成为更大的客户并随着时间的推移变得更加高效感到自豪。因此，我认为对我们来说的阻力现在正在变成顺风，我们看到带宽使用量趋于稳定，这对我们业务的成本方面很有吸引力。<b>Cloudflare 的出色利润</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dc84122254553246848c5eee09615d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>NET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净利润和 FSLY 毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司不得不应对带宽成本急剧增加的问题，而去年其订阅模式本来就不是为其设计的，但随着时间的推移，该公司仍设法将毛利率始终保持在 75% 以上，轻松超过了 FSLY 基于使用量的收入模式。我们相信，公司的全套网络产品帮助公司实现了收入基础的多元化，这进一步证明了公司商业模式在多个市场和垂直行业中的卓越执行力，增强了公司应对任何意外放缓或意外成本激增的收入弹性。如果投资者将 Cloudflare 视为 “万事通”，我们认为它也可能倾向于将其看涨期权为 “万事通”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计息税前利润和自由现金流盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f441756caaca11d36431b00ab64f090\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"678\"><span>NET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净收入预计意味着共识和预计同比收入增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec9b55dc6e235a1304a54224c0f90b7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计息税前利润率和预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 NET 尚未实现 FCF 和 EBIT 盈利能力，但该公司已设定 20% 的长期营业利润率，在我们的模型中，我们认为随着时间的推移，这是高度可以实现的，因为我们预计该公司将实现 EBIT 利润率到 25 财年末达到 15.7%，特别是当该公司仍有望在未来几年实现 30% 以上的快速增长时。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617eade5b53ed1383b6438691464f52\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET LTM SG&amp;A margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM SG&amp;A 净利润。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&amp;A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.</p><p><blockquote>我们的信心主要基于公司在 SG&amp;A 利润率中所表现出的运营杠杆的持续改善，而 SG&amp;A 利润率一直是公司最大的运营费用部分。我们相信，该公司可能会在未来保持这种改善，这将强烈影响其息税前利润率，并推动公司在未来几年实现息税前利润率和自由现金流盈利。因此，这个派对肯定才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained</p><p><blockquote>如果持续执行，估值将是令人信服的</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c991d9200f0424a6c2739f78335a667e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"726\"><span>NET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净电动汽车 / Fwd 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81c5bc076bc34bcc9135201909e8028\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NET NTM (TEV / Rev).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净NTM（TEV/Rev）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们继续为 NET 卓越的商业模式和世界一流的执行力喝彩，但我们也意识到，精明的市场参与者不太可能忘记这一点。因此，我们对 NET 的 EV / FY+1 Rev 值为 52 倍，而过去一年的平均值约为 35.5 倍并不感到惊讶。根据我们对 NET 未来几年预期收入增长率的计算，我们得出的预期股价 4 年复合年增长率为 19.66%，即使在当前价格水平下，如果该公司能够保持其出色的执行记录并实现其增长目标，未来几年的回报可能会跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff2c1614d64bd26c28b2b3c0c17488\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Projected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>预计 25 财年股价和预计 4 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5eac1f8292520dd62f2d5c23328a0a9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"783\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在去年 9 月以 30 美元左右的价格进入了 NET 的全部头寸，但根据目前的价格走势，我们认为现在没有新投资者的最佳入场点，即使我们认为根据目前的价格水平，NET 可能会继续跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们鼓励在决策中考虑价格走势的投资者先等待回调，而不考虑价格走势的投资者如果对未来几年 NET 的执行情况有高度的信心，现在就可以进场。</blockquote></p><p> While we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不会在当前价格水平上增加更多头寸，但我们肯定会将该股保留在我们的观察名单上，以考虑在下一次回撤时增加我们的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，Cloudflare 一直是投资者真正的优秀公司，我们认为，随着公司在未来几年实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利，公司的增长故事才刚刚开始。NET 的投资者被鼓励坐以待毙，享受未来许多年的稳健增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437171-cloudflare-is-much-more-scalable-than-you-think\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437171-cloudflare-is-much-more-scalable-than-you-think","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181301986","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.\nWhile Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.\nWe present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.\nWhile we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.\n\nSteve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment\nUnderstanding Cloudflare's Business Model\nCloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”\nIn fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:\n\n So the reason that we picked the ticker symbol NET was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have.\n\nWe think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.\nCloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection\nDDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze\nWhile Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and remote browser isolation service (through its S2 Systems Corporation acquisition in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"\nTherefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.\nRapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment\nLarge / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings\nThe company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”\nExpansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR\nWhile investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.\nImportantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”\nDollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings\nThat has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”\nCloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN\nMany investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:\n\n We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven.\n\nWe had recently highlighted in an article on FSLY and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.\nIn fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”\nCEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:\n\n And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses.\n\nTherefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.\nHowever, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:\n\n All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business.\n\nCloudflare's Excellent Margins\nNET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.\nExpected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable\nNET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.\nNET LTM SG&A margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nOur confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.\nValuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained\nNET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNET NTM (TEV / Rev).\nWhile we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.\nProjected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.\nTherefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.\nWhile we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.\nWrapping It All Up\nCloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127027547,"gmtCreate":1624805853189,"gmtModify":1631884993691,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes.. my vote for Ford too","listText":"Yes.. my vote for Ford too","text":"Yes.. my vote for Ford too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127027547","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120271686,"gmtCreate":1624326261945,"gmtModify":1634007763769,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not bad..","listText":"Not bad..","text":"Not bad..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120271686","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164638450,"gmtCreate":1624199306470,"gmtModify":1634009566215,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"As Always [USD]&nbsp;","listText":"As Always [USD]&nbsp;","text":"As Always [USD]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164638450","repostId":"2144172072","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":154373031,"gmtCreate":1625484839623,"gmtModify":1633940298409,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks for letting us know upfront ..","listText":"Thanks for letting us know upfront ..","text":"Thanks for letting us know upfront ..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154373031","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109703914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625464355,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1109703914?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股市是开市还是休市？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109703914","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.It's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading i","content":"<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年的7月4日是星期天，在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么主要市场在假期会开放还是关闭呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整收盘日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11 月 26 日星期五，交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 1 点，为期半天多一点。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 4 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股市是开市还是休市？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股市是开市还是休市？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年的7月4日是星期天，在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么主要市场在假期会开放还是关闭呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整收盘日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11 月 26 日星期五，交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 1 点，为期半天多一点。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为美国东部时间上午 9:30 至下午 4 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109703914","content_text":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the holiday?\nThe New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.\nIt's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.\nFor instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.\nNormal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156764523,"gmtCreate":1625237378962,"gmtModify":1633942175236,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazon cloud would miss a big customer","listText":"Amazon cloud would miss a big customer","text":"Amazon cloud would miss a big customer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156764523","repostId":"2148803897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127027547,"gmtCreate":1624805853189,"gmtModify":1631884993691,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes.. my vote for Ford too","listText":"Yes.. my vote for Ford too","text":"Yes.. my vote for Ford too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127027547","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在增进对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机遇的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特公司（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临另一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后给出最终结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特与蔚来：全球电动汽车市场之争正在升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司都将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场展开较量。福特的车队还没有以电动汽车为重点，但这种情况将会改变： 福特感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，因此表示将加快其电气化计划，在 2025 年前投资 300 亿美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求投资 220 亿美元用于零排放汽车。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年，其全球销量的 40% 将是电动汽车，皮卡车销量的 33% 将是电动汽车。目前，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的 1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在 2040 年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020 年，中国购买了全球 41% 的电动汽车。去年，中国买家购买了 130 万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求促进电动汽车的普及，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是全球第三大插电式电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速迎头赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对欧洲范围内充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来正处于进军欧洲市场的风口浪尖，希望在竞争准备就绪之前扩大其在世界第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>中国政府是蔚来汽车工业电气化的推动者： 中国政府希望到 2025 年，电动汽车在新车销售中所占份额达到 20%，这将推动电动汽车在中国本土市场的普及。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场将迎来世界上最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，电动汽车销量将超过全球所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长和更有利的监管框架，这里的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有百年的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品阵容中只有一款与蔚来相比的全电动汽车：野马 Mach-E SUV。2022 年，福特将开始销售全电动 F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑车SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来只专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了一个非常小且明确的利基市场，这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商希望实现的速度更快地提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国是特斯拉（TSLA）的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也是蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议斥资 300 亿美元用于车队电气化，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>这里的赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化与BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在这个市场中的重要性，随着时间的推移，这个市场只会变得更加竞争，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个相关领域大力投资，这个领域可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场的主导地位：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司 SK Innovation 成立一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池芯和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加快电池交付速度，年产量约为 60 GWh，足以满足福特到 2030 年预计年能源需求的 25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并组建了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特不同的是，蔚来的电池投资战略围绕着电池订阅模式，也称为 “电池即服务 ”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了一个强大的长期收入机会。在这种 “BaaS” 模式下，用户购买蔚来电动汽车可获得 7 万元人民币的初始折扣，折合 1.08 万美元，并可签约包月租赁 70 千瓦时的可充电电池。然后可以在蔚来的换电站更换电池，这些换电站在中国大多数大城市都有。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于前期折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和随着时间的推移更好的性能。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩，为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入流。“BaaS ”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/换电站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户绑定到蔚来，从而潜在地增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特和蔚来增加资本配置，它们有望从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这应该会推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车比内燃机乘用车更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建部分商业模式，蔚来可能会比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德提供的信息，自 2014 年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降 70%，并且本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS ”模式是天才之作，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年 5 亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特 5 月份的销量同比增长 4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比激增 184%，福特 5 月份售出了创纪录的 10,364 辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified 和 Explorer Hybrid 的销量分别同比增长 125% 和 132%，显示出强劲的客户吸引力。蔚来上个月交付了 6,711 辆汽车，其中包括 3,017 辆 ES6、1,412 辆 ES8 和 2,282 辆 EC6。5 月份总交付量同比增长 95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销量是蔚来汽车的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来之间的估值差异就像黑夜和白天之间的差异。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别实现了爆炸式增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量增长将达到中低位数。福特预计到 2025 财年（基准年：2020 财年）收入将增长 33%，蔚来将增长 808%!</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于销售增长的这些差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言是这样。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近 100%，由于蔚来只销售电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销量之比远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来有更大的风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。与福特相比，蔚来的全球总销售额增长潜力更大，因为它的营收基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，与可以依赖全球服务和分销网络的福特相比，由于生产缺陷导致的召回对于蔚来来说将是一个更大的挑战。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓，将对财务状况造成更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更 “性感 ”的汽车制造商。在中国和欧洲的强劲采用率和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，堪称天才。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着该汽车制造商车队电气化，电动汽车销量的比例也将不断增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果你相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，又不喜欢太大的风险，那就买福特吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120271686,"gmtCreate":1624326261945,"gmtModify":1634007763769,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not bad..","listText":"Not bad..","text":"Not bad..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120271686","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173953780,"gmtCreate":1626605282840,"gmtModify":1633925535457,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s the future","listText":"It’s the future","text":"It’s the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173953780","repostId":"2152968147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141921285,"gmtCreate":1625834702247,"gmtModify":1633936885471,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is split up anytime soon","listText":"Is split up anytime soon","text":"Is split up anytime soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141921285","repostId":"1132560832","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132560832","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625831887,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132560832?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 19:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo<blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%，与 Thoma Bravo 达成 6.6B 美元现金交易，以每股 330 美元的价格私有化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132560832","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash d","content":"<p>Stamps.com&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;14%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo.</p><p><blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%， 在与 Thoma Bravo 达成的 6.6B 美元现金交易中以每股 330 美元的价格私有化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f161f070e63ab83519e4d884ce773d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stamps.com(NASDAQ:STMP)stockholders toreceive $330.00 per share in cash.</li>  <li>The offer price per share represents a&nbsp;<b>premium of 66.9% over Stamps.com's closing share price</b>&nbsp;on July 08, 2021.</li>  <li>Stamps.com’s Board of Directors has unanimously approved the agreement with Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>Post-completion, Stamps.com will become a private company with the flexibility and resources to provide global e-commerce technology solutions.</li>  <li>Additionally, Stamps.com will benefit from the operating capabilities, capital support, and deep sector expertise of Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>The agreement includes a 40-day “go-shop” period expiring August 18, 2021, allowing the Board and its advisors to actively initiate, solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals from third parties.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in Q3'21, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Stamps.com stockholders and receipt of regulatory approvals.</li>  <li>Stamps.com to resume trading at 8 a.m. ET</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Stamps.com（纳斯达克股票代码：STMP）股东将收到每股 330.00 美元的现金。</li><li>每股发售价指<b>较 Stamps.com 收盘价溢价 66.9%</b>2021年7月8日。</li><li>Stamps.com 董事会一致批准了与 Thoma Bravo 的协议。</li><li>完成后，Stamps.com将成为一家私营公司，拥有提供全球电子商务技术解决方案的灵活性和资源。</li><li>此外，Stamps.com 将受益于 Thoma Bravo 的运营能力、资本支持和深厚的行业专业知识。</li><li>该协议包括一个 40 天的 “购物 ”期，将于 2021 年 8 月 18 日到期，允许董事会及其顾问积极发起、征求和考虑第三方的替代收购提案。</li><li>该交易预计将于 2021 年第三季度完成，但须满足惯例成交条件，包括 Stamps.com 股东的批准和收到监管部门的批准。</li><li>Stamps.com 将于美国东部时间上午 8 点恢复交易</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo<blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%，与 Thoma Bravo 达成 6.6B 美元现金交易，以每股 330 美元的价格私有化</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo<blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%，与 Thoma Bravo 达成 6.6B 美元现金交易，以每股 330 美元的价格私有化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-09 19:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stamps.com&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surges&nbsp;14%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo.</p><p><blockquote>Stamps.com 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14%， 在与 Thoma Bravo 达成的 6.6B 美元现金交易中以每股 330 美元的价格私有化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f161f070e63ab83519e4d884ce773d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stamps.com(NASDAQ:STMP)stockholders toreceive $330.00 per share in cash.</li>  <li>The offer price per share represents a&nbsp;<b>premium of 66.9% over Stamps.com's closing share price</b>&nbsp;on July 08, 2021.</li>  <li>Stamps.com’s Board of Directors has unanimously approved the agreement with Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>Post-completion, Stamps.com will become a private company with the flexibility and resources to provide global e-commerce technology solutions.</li>  <li>Additionally, Stamps.com will benefit from the operating capabilities, capital support, and deep sector expertise of Thoma Bravo.</li>  <li>The agreement includes a 40-day “go-shop” period expiring August 18, 2021, allowing the Board and its advisors to actively initiate, solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals from third parties.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in Q3'21, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Stamps.com stockholders and receipt of regulatory approvals.</li>  <li>Stamps.com to resume trading at 8 a.m. ET</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Stamps.com（纳斯达克股票代码：STMP）股东将收到每股 330.00 美元的现金。</li><li>每股发售价指<b>较 Stamps.com 收盘价溢价 66.9%</b>2021年7月8日。</li><li>Stamps.com 董事会一致批准了与 Thoma Bravo 的协议。</li><li>完成后，Stamps.com将成为一家私营公司，拥有提供全球电子商务技术解决方案的灵活性和资源。</li><li>此外，Stamps.com 将受益于 Thoma Bravo 的运营能力、资本支持和深厚的行业专业知识。</li><li>该协议包括一个 40 天的 “购物 ”期，将于 2021 年 8 月 18 日到期，允许董事会及其顾问积极发起、征求和考虑第三方的替代收购提案。</li><li>该交易预计将于 2021 年第三季度完成，但须满足惯例成交条件，包括 Stamps.com 股东的批准和收到监管部门的批准。</li><li>Stamps.com 将于美国东部时间上午 8 点恢复交易</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132560832","content_text":"Stamps.com shares surges 14% in premarket trading,as going private at $330 per share in $6.6B cash deal with Thoma Bravo.\n\n\nStamps.com(NASDAQ:STMP)stockholders toreceive $330.00 per share in cash.\nThe offer price per share represents a premium of 66.9% over Stamps.com's closing share price on July 08, 2021.\nStamps.com’s Board of Directors has unanimously approved the agreement with Thoma Bravo.\nPost-completion, Stamps.com will become a private company with the flexibility and resources to provide global e-commerce technology solutions.\nAdditionally, Stamps.com will benefit from the operating capabilities, capital support, and deep sector expertise of Thoma Bravo.\nThe agreement includes a 40-day “go-shop” period expiring August 18, 2021, allowing the Board and its advisors to actively initiate, solicit and consider alternative acquisition proposals from third parties.\nThe transaction is expected to close in Q3'21, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Stamps.com stockholders and receipt of regulatory approvals.\nStamps.com to resume trading at 8 a.m. ET","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STMP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170700416,"gmtCreate":1626448861335,"gmtModify":1633926621657,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170700416","repostId":"1144679332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152515087,"gmtCreate":1625311350849,"gmtModify":1633941552101,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I hope it will turn around..","listText":"I hope it will turn around..","text":"I hope it will turn around..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152515087","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能在2021年下半年扭转困境吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型和超大型同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直处于严重落后状态。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW（<b>爸爸</b>) -Get Report 今年到目前为止一直很糟糕。股票交易一直持续到 2020 年第四季度，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁的首次公开募股，然后更深入地挖掘了阿里巴巴-SW并提高了热度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是在我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，4月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创纪录的罚款，希望将其监管问题抛诸脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并未如多头所希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续突破历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG 股票继续表现令人难以置信的良好。Alphabet（<b>GOOGL</b>) - Get Reportis 是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近 40%，而 Netflix (<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report 最差，下降了 2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点要糟糕得多，下跌了 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转颓势并开始走高？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权对我来说是一个绝望的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好无损，增长强劲。这就像亚马逊（<b>亚马逊</b>)-获取报告。最终，它的表现会更好--这是一个 “何时 ”的问题，而不是 “是否 ”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续保持在 210 美元至 212 美元区域，并最近清除了下降趋势阻力（蓝线）。尽管如此，仍有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票正在与 21 周移动平均线以及 21 个月和 10 个月移动平均线作斗争。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有太多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股市能在本周的下跌中守住 10 周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在 210 美元的水平上方，实际上是 200 周移动平均线上方，我对阿里巴巴-SW未来六个月的走势感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破 235 美元（从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍）可能会上涨至 250 美元，然后上涨至 263 美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>记住风险，但这可能是一个坚实的下半场反弹比赛。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152512579,"gmtCreate":1625311207291,"gmtModify":1633941552465,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Cool..&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Cool..&nbsp;","text":"Cool..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152512579","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151002987,"gmtCreate":1625055316649,"gmtModify":1633945409251,"author":{"id":"3585780555170064","authorId":"3585780555170064","name":"Venkisakthi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec08c0f381636758efa60d454734dc0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780555170064","idStr":"3585780555170064"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sure..","listText":"Sure..","text":"Sure..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151002987","repostId":"1181301986","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181301986","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625043232,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181301986?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 16:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare比您想象的更具可扩展性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181301986","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.\nWhile Cloud","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.</li>  <li>While Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.</li>  <li>We present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.</li>  <li>While we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd63105e871f3b7086e6743081853b5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\"><span>Steve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为投资者并没有很好地理解 Cloudflare 的商业模式。</li><li>虽然Cloudflare在内容交付网络领域运营，但它从未将自己定位为CDN玩家。</li><li>我们对 Cloudflare 所代表的意义进行了更清晰的阐述，以便投资者能够更恰当地理解该公司商业模式的高可扩展性。</li><li>虽然我们认为 Cloudflare 即使在当前价格水平上也能表现出色，但我们更愿意仅在下一次回撤时进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>史蒂夫·詹宁斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Cloudflare's Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Cloudflare的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like&nbsp;Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”</p><p><blockquote>对于不同的投资者来说，Cloudflare (NET) 已经像许多事情一样为人所知。我们已经看到投资者将Cloudflare归类为云或网络安全公司、内容交付网络[CDN]或身份访问管理[IAM]公司。事实是，虽然Cloudflare参与了所有这些，但该公司实际上拥有更大的经营规模。Cloudflare 将自己视为 “一家网络公司”，“你必须把 [Cloudflare] 看作思科即服务。无论你在哪里购买和收购硬件，无论是防火墙、路由器、负载平衡器还是 VPN，我们都通过我们的网络提供这种服务。而这个网络现在已经被屏蔽了”。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，首席执行官马修·普林斯强调：</blockquote></p><p>   So the reason that we picked the&nbsp;ticker symbol NET&nbsp;was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have.  We think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们选择股票代码网的原因是因为，从根本上说，我们销售的是您插入的网络，然后您不必担心其他任何事情。这就是我们想要传达的。所以其中一部分是你要确保你有一个快速的网络。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个可靠的网络。但其中很大一部分是你要确保你有一个网络来帮助你解决你的安全问题。我们认为，Cloudflare 希望投资者清楚地了解公司业务范围的关键原因之一是让投资者对公司仍在扩张的 TAM 有一个适当的战略观点，该公司强调，自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，TAM 一直在扩张。尽管该公司在 2019 年的 TAM 为 37B 美元，但随后上调至 72B 美元，现在该公司正在考虑在未来 3 年内实现 100B 美元的 TAM。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是DDoS防护领域无可争议的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5a18d2b88858258dd3212a23e6a41c4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至4月21日，DDoS和机器人防护软件全球市场份额。数据来源：Datanyze</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and&nbsp;remote browser isolation service&nbsp;(through its&nbsp;S2 Systems Corporation acquisition&nbsp;in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with&nbsp;Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Cloudflare 以 “负载平衡、防火墙、DDoS 缓解服务 ”起家，并且该公司是 DDoS 防护领域无可争议的全球市场领导者，市场份额为 81.4%，但该公司已迅速将其 TAM 扩展到 VPN 和远程浏览器隔离服务（通过 1 月 20 日收购 S2 Systems Corporation），针对这两个市场推出了 Cloudflare for Teams 和浏览器隔离服务，后者也可以添加到其 Teams 产品中。然而，在其第三次 TAM 扩展中，该公司计划通过其 Cloudflare Magic Transitproduct 通过保护公司的内部数据中心来 “破坏企业网络和多协议标签交换 [MPLS]”，该公司进入该扩展是为了破坏 “这个世界的思科 (CSCO)、Fortinets (FTNT)、Check Points (CHKP)、Palo Altos (PANW) 和 Riverbeds ”的高利润据点。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者应该能够清楚地认识到 Cloudflare 商业模式极高的可扩展性，以及它在本土与市场上最大的本地安全公司抗衡的雄心。Magic Transit 将成为公司打入企业部门的关键参与者，因为 “MPLS 支出是我们客户预算中的一个重要项目 ”将有助于公司建立快速增长的企业部门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速扩张的企业部门</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa220975bc1c2c02ff1e97a20a87a09d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Large / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大型/企业客户趋势。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”</p><p><blockquote>该公司无疑在企业领域取得了巨大进步，而企业领域现在是该公司 “增长最快的业务”。虽然截至 21 年第一季度，该细分市场拥有 945 家企业客户（与 18 年第一季度相比，该细分市场的复合年增长率为 69%），但与 119,206 家客户相比，该细分市场现在占公司收入的大部分，正如 Cloudflare 所强调的那样： “这现在占我们收入的 50%，略高于 50%”。事实上，仅凭图表并不能完全反映公司在这一细分市场的渗透能力，因为企业细分市场中较大的付费客户增长速度更快，Cloudflare 进一步补充道： “让我们看看年收入超过 50 万美元甚至超过 100 万美元的客户，群体越大，增长速度就越快。因此，我们最大的客户群体，即 100 万美元以上的客户，在过去 7 个季度中一直保持在 70% 以上的增长速度”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品扩张有助于维持其 DBNRR</b></blockquote></p><p> While investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可能已经被公司向客户提供的产品或服务的数量或范围所淹没，但 Cloudflare 强调，事实上，“首先，我们拥有的产品越多，扩张就越容易”。当然，该公司一直致力于打造为客户提供重大价值的产品，并看到客户多年来在产品采用阶梯上迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司为客户的产品采用率附上了一个 “神奇数字”：每位客户 4 种产品。该公司强调，在首次公开募股时，70% 的客户每人使用 4 种产品，“但现在这一数字已远远超过 80%。现在，超过 70% 的客户使用 5 种产品。因此，随着产品组合的增加，我们已经能够向现有客户销售更多产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7b20c40180d118295622722286980\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Dollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基于美元的净保留率[DBNRR]。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”</p><p><blockquote>这使得该公司多年来一直保持着其 DBNRR，而在 21 年第一季度，该公司的 DBNRR 达到了过去 3 年最令人印象深刻的 123%。虽然其 DBNRR 符合 SaaS 同行 120% 的中位数，但我们相信，随着越来越多的客户采用更多产品，该公司将继续保持高水平的 DBNRR，“从而[导致]产品的粘性和[使]流失率下降”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare从未被设计成CDN</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者经常将 Cloudflare 与 Fastly (FSLY) 作为内容交付网络 (CDN) 领域的竞争对手进行比较。虽然我们认为 NET 肯定会在该领域与 FSLY 竞争，但该公司特别想提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p>   We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven.  We had recently highlighted in&nbsp;an article on FSLY&nbsp;and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.</p><p><blockquote>我们从来都不是被设计成CDN的。我们必须提供类似CDN的功能，以便在我们的网络边缘提供基于安全性和性能的产品和服务。但CDN是实现这一目标的一种手段，但不是商业模式本身。我们对产品的定价不同。我们没有使用——或者几乎没有任何基于使用的定价。即使在今天，我们的收入中也不到一位数是基于可变计费的。其中，不到1/3是真正由带宽驱动的。我们最近在一篇关于 FSLY 的文章中强调，并提醒投资者，FSLY 不是典型的 SaaS 模式，因为该公司的收入主要来自使用量，而不是订阅。另一方面，NET 的大部分收入来自订阅，因此推动各自业务的收入模式完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”</p><p><blockquote>事实上，基于使用情况的模式的带宽成本不可预测是 NET 选择不采用基于使用情况的收入模式的主要原因之一，因为该公司希望通过以 “可预测和可靠的方式 ”收费的产品来降低成本。然后，Cloudflare 的首要任务将转向寻找方法，通过确保其 “软件定义的网络可以允许我们网络中任何地方的任何服务器运行我们所做的任何不同功能，并能够转移流量，以提供其他人无法比拟的效率”，来 “随着时间的推移，将带宽成本降低到接近于零”。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马修·普林斯也简洁地补充道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses.  Therefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当我认为一家典型的CDN公司担心有多少人会收看超级碗比赛，以及Disney+上的新节目是否会受欢迎时，我整天都在担心来自俄罗斯或伊朗、世界各地的新网络威胁，以及我们如何应对这些威胁。同样，只是完全不同的业务。因此，投资者可以放心，每当 FSLY 失去像我们看到 inTikTokis 这样的大客户时，他们都会忍受的那种使用波动不太可能发生在 NET 上，原因很简单，Cloudflare 不按使用量计费，因此提供了我们对典型 SaaS 公司所期望的那种或收入可见性。</blockquote></p><p> However, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>然而，与 FSLY 基于使用量的计费模式相比，Cloudflare 基于订阅的收入模式并非没有固有的缺点，每当客户使用量大幅激增时，就像该公司去年在大流行病的阵痛中所经历的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business.  <b>Cloudflare's Excellent Margins</b></p><p><blockquote>突然间，我们看到了人们在我们服务中使用的带宽量的急剧上升和急剧激增。与传统的CDN不同，我们不能将这些成本转嫁给我们的客户。因此，我认为这些实际上对我们来说是相当大的阻力，我为我们的团队真正调整、解决客户问题、专注于扩大现有客户并使他们成为更大的客户并随着时间的推移变得更加高效感到自豪。因此，我认为对我们来说的阻力现在正在变成顺风，我们看到带宽使用量趋于稳定，这对我们业务的成本方面很有吸引力。<b>Cloudflare 的出色利润</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dc84122254553246848c5eee09615d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>NET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净利润和 FSLY 毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司不得不应对带宽成本急剧增加的问题，而去年其订阅模式本来就不是为其设计的，但随着时间的推移，该公司仍设法将毛利率始终保持在 75% 以上，轻松超过了 FSLY 基于使用量的收入模式。我们相信，公司的全套网络产品帮助公司实现了收入基础的多元化，这进一步证明了公司商业模式在多个市场和垂直行业中的卓越执行力，增强了公司应对任何意外放缓或意外成本激增的收入弹性。如果投资者将 Cloudflare 视为 “万事通”，我们认为它也可能倾向于将其看涨期权为 “万事通”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计息税前利润和自由现金流盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f441756caaca11d36431b00ab64f090\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"678\"><span>NET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净收入预计意味着共识和预计同比收入增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec9b55dc6e235a1304a54224c0f90b7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计息税前利润率和预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 NET 尚未实现 FCF 和 EBIT 盈利能力，但该公司已设定 20% 的长期营业利润率，在我们的模型中，我们认为随着时间的推移，这是高度可以实现的，因为我们预计该公司将实现 EBIT 利润率到 25 财年末达到 15.7%，特别是当该公司仍有望在未来几年实现 30% 以上的快速增长时。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617eade5b53ed1383b6438691464f52\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET LTM SG&amp;A margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM SG&amp;A 净利润。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&amp;A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.</p><p><blockquote>我们的信心主要基于公司在 SG&amp;A 利润率中所表现出的运营杠杆的持续改善，而 SG&amp;A 利润率一直是公司最大的运营费用部分。我们相信，该公司可能会在未来保持这种改善，这将强烈影响其息税前利润率，并推动公司在未来几年实现息税前利润率和自由现金流盈利。因此，这个派对肯定才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained</p><p><blockquote>如果持续执行，估值将是令人信服的</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c991d9200f0424a6c2739f78335a667e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"726\"><span>NET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净电动汽车 / Fwd 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81c5bc076bc34bcc9135201909e8028\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NET NTM (TEV / Rev).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净NTM（TEV/Rev）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们继续为 NET 卓越的商业模式和世界一流的执行力喝彩，但我们也意识到，精明的市场参与者不太可能忘记这一点。因此，我们对 NET 的 EV / FY+1 Rev 值为 52 倍，而过去一年的平均值约为 35.5 倍并不感到惊讶。根据我们对 NET 未来几年预期收入增长率的计算，我们得出的预期股价 4 年复合年增长率为 19.66%，即使在当前价格水平下，如果该公司能够保持其出色的执行记录并实现其增长目标，未来几年的回报可能会跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff2c1614d64bd26c28b2b3c0c17488\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Projected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>预计 25 财年股价和预计 4 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5eac1f8292520dd62f2d5c23328a0a9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"783\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在去年 9 月以 30 美元左右的价格进入了 NET 的全部头寸，但根据目前的价格走势，我们认为现在没有新投资者的最佳入场点，即使我们认为根据目前的价格水平，NET 可能会继续跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们鼓励在决策中考虑价格走势的投资者先等待回调，而不考虑价格走势的投资者如果对未来几年 NET 的执行情况有高度的信心，现在就可以进场。</blockquote></p><p> While we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不会在当前价格水平上增加更多头寸，但我们肯定会将该股保留在我们的观察名单上，以考虑在下一次回撤时增加我们的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，Cloudflare 一直是投资者真正的优秀公司，我们认为，随着公司在未来几年实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利，公司的增长故事才刚刚开始。NET 的投资者被鼓励坐以待毙，享受未来许多年的稳健增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare比您想象的更具可扩展性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare比您想象的更具可扩展性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 16:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.</li>  <li>While Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.</li>  <li>We present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.</li>  <li>While we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd63105e871f3b7086e6743081853b5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\"><span>Steve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为投资者并没有很好地理解 Cloudflare 的商业模式。</li><li>虽然Cloudflare在内容交付网络领域运营，但它从未将自己定位为CDN玩家。</li><li>我们对 Cloudflare 所代表的意义进行了更清晰的阐述，以便投资者能够更恰当地理解该公司商业模式的高可扩展性。</li><li>虽然我们认为 Cloudflare 即使在当前价格水平上也能表现出色，但我们更愿意仅在下一次回撤时进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>史蒂夫·詹宁斯/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Cloudflare's Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Cloudflare的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like&nbsp;Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”</p><p><blockquote>对于不同的投资者来说，Cloudflare (NET) 已经像许多事情一样为人所知。我们已经看到投资者将Cloudflare归类为云或网络安全公司、内容交付网络[CDN]或身份访问管理[IAM]公司。事实是，虽然Cloudflare参与了所有这些，但该公司实际上拥有更大的经营规模。Cloudflare 将自己视为 “一家网络公司”，“你必须把 [Cloudflare] 看作思科即服务。无论你在哪里购买和收购硬件，无论是防火墙、路由器、负载平衡器还是 VPN，我们都通过我们的网络提供这种服务。而这个网络现在已经被屏蔽了”。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，首席执行官马修·普林斯强调：</blockquote></p><p>   So the reason that we picked the&nbsp;ticker symbol NET&nbsp;was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have.  We think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们选择股票代码网的原因是因为，从根本上说，我们销售的是您插入的网络，然后您不必担心其他任何事情。这就是我们想要传达的。所以其中一部分是你要确保你有一个快速的网络。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个可靠的网络。但其中很大一部分是你要确保你有一个网络来帮助你解决你的安全问题。我们认为，Cloudflare 希望投资者清楚地了解公司业务范围的关键原因之一是让投资者对公司仍在扩张的 TAM 有一个适当的战略观点，该公司强调，自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，TAM 一直在扩张。尽管该公司在 2019 年的 TAM 为 37B 美元，但随后上调至 72B 美元，现在该公司正在考虑在未来 3 年内实现 100B 美元的 TAM。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是DDoS防护领域无可争议的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5a18d2b88858258dd3212a23e6a41c4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至4月21日，DDoS和机器人防护软件全球市场份额。数据来源：Datanyze</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and&nbsp;remote browser isolation service&nbsp;(through its&nbsp;S2 Systems Corporation acquisition&nbsp;in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with&nbsp;Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Cloudflare 以 “负载平衡、防火墙、DDoS 缓解服务 ”起家，并且该公司是 DDoS 防护领域无可争议的全球市场领导者，市场份额为 81.4%，但该公司已迅速将其 TAM 扩展到 VPN 和远程浏览器隔离服务（通过 1 月 20 日收购 S2 Systems Corporation），针对这两个市场推出了 Cloudflare for Teams 和浏览器隔离服务，后者也可以添加到其 Teams 产品中。然而，在其第三次 TAM 扩展中，该公司计划通过其 Cloudflare Magic Transitproduct 通过保护公司的内部数据中心来 “破坏企业网络和多协议标签交换 [MPLS]”，该公司进入该扩展是为了破坏 “这个世界的思科 (CSCO)、Fortinets (FTNT)、Check Points (CHKP)、Palo Altos (PANW) 和 Riverbeds ”的高利润据点。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者应该能够清楚地认识到 Cloudflare 商业模式极高的可扩展性，以及它在本土与市场上最大的本地安全公司抗衡的雄心。Magic Transit 将成为公司打入企业部门的关键参与者，因为 “MPLS 支出是我们客户预算中的一个重要项目 ”将有助于公司建立快速增长的企业部门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速扩张的企业部门</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa220975bc1c2c02ff1e97a20a87a09d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Large / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大型/企业客户趋势。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”</p><p><blockquote>该公司无疑在企业领域取得了巨大进步，而企业领域现在是该公司 “增长最快的业务”。虽然截至 21 年第一季度，该细分市场拥有 945 家企业客户（与 18 年第一季度相比，该细分市场的复合年增长率为 69%），但与 119,206 家客户相比，该细分市场现在占公司收入的大部分，正如 Cloudflare 所强调的那样： “这现在占我们收入的 50%，略高于 50%”。事实上，仅凭图表并不能完全反映公司在这一细分市场的渗透能力，因为企业细分市场中较大的付费客户增长速度更快，Cloudflare 进一步补充道： “让我们看看年收入超过 50 万美元甚至超过 100 万美元的客户，群体越大，增长速度就越快。因此，我们最大的客户群体，即 100 万美元以上的客户，在过去 7 个季度中一直保持在 70% 以上的增长速度”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品扩张有助于维持其 DBNRR</b></blockquote></p><p> While investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可能已经被公司向客户提供的产品或服务的数量或范围所淹没，但 Cloudflare 强调，事实上，“首先，我们拥有的产品越多，扩张就越容易”。当然，该公司一直致力于打造为客户提供重大价值的产品，并看到客户多年来在产品采用阶梯上迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司为客户的产品采用率附上了一个 “神奇数字”：每位客户 4 种产品。该公司强调，在首次公开募股时，70% 的客户每人使用 4 种产品，“但现在这一数字已远远超过 80%。现在，超过 70% 的客户使用 5 种产品。因此，随着产品组合的增加，我们已经能够向现有客户销售更多产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7b20c40180d118295622722286980\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Dollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基于美元的净保留率[DBNRR]。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”</p><p><blockquote>这使得该公司多年来一直保持着其 DBNRR，而在 21 年第一季度，该公司的 DBNRR 达到了过去 3 年最令人印象深刻的 123%。虽然其 DBNRR 符合 SaaS 同行 120% 的中位数，但我们相信，随着越来越多的客户采用更多产品，该公司将继续保持高水平的 DBNRR，“从而[导致]产品的粘性和[使]流失率下降”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare从未被设计成CDN</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者经常将 Cloudflare 与 Fastly (FSLY) 作为内容交付网络 (CDN) 领域的竞争对手进行比较。虽然我们认为 NET 肯定会在该领域与 FSLY 竞争，但该公司特别想提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p>   We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven.  We had recently highlighted in&nbsp;an article on FSLY&nbsp;and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.</p><p><blockquote>我们从来都不是被设计成CDN的。我们必须提供类似CDN的功能，以便在我们的网络边缘提供基于安全性和性能的产品和服务。但CDN是实现这一目标的一种手段，但不是商业模式本身。我们对产品的定价不同。我们没有使用——或者几乎没有任何基于使用的定价。即使在今天，我们的收入中也不到一位数是基于可变计费的。其中，不到1/3是真正由带宽驱动的。我们最近在一篇关于 FSLY 的文章中强调，并提醒投资者，FSLY 不是典型的 SaaS 模式，因为该公司的收入主要来自使用量，而不是订阅。另一方面，NET 的大部分收入来自订阅，因此推动各自业务的收入模式完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”</p><p><blockquote>事实上，基于使用情况的模式的带宽成本不可预测是 NET 选择不采用基于使用情况的收入模式的主要原因之一，因为该公司希望通过以 “可预测和可靠的方式 ”收费的产品来降低成本。然后，Cloudflare 的首要任务将转向寻找方法，通过确保其 “软件定义的网络可以允许我们网络中任何地方的任何服务器运行我们所做的任何不同功能，并能够转移流量，以提供其他人无法比拟的效率”，来 “随着时间的推移，将带宽成本降低到接近于零”。</blockquote></p><p> CEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马修·普林斯也简洁地补充道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses.  Therefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当我认为一家典型的CDN公司担心有多少人会收看超级碗比赛，以及Disney+上的新节目是否会受欢迎时，我整天都在担心来自俄罗斯或伊朗、世界各地的新网络威胁，以及我们如何应对这些威胁。同样，只是完全不同的业务。因此，投资者可以放心，每当 FSLY 失去像我们看到 inTikTokis 这样的大客户时，他们都会忍受的那种使用波动不太可能发生在 NET 上，原因很简单，Cloudflare 不按使用量计费，因此提供了我们对典型 SaaS 公司所期望的那种或收入可见性。</blockquote></p><p> However, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>然而，与 FSLY 基于使用量的计费模式相比，Cloudflare 基于订阅的收入模式并非没有固有的缺点，每当客户使用量大幅激增时，就像该公司去年在大流行病的阵痛中所经历的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business.  <b>Cloudflare's Excellent Margins</b></p><p><blockquote>突然间，我们看到了人们在我们服务中使用的带宽量的急剧上升和急剧激增。与传统的CDN不同，我们不能将这些成本转嫁给我们的客户。因此，我认为这些实际上对我们来说是相当大的阻力，我为我们的团队真正调整、解决客户问题、专注于扩大现有客户并使他们成为更大的客户并随着时间的推移变得更加高效感到自豪。因此，我认为对我们来说的阻力现在正在变成顺风，我们看到带宽使用量趋于稳定，这对我们业务的成本方面很有吸引力。<b>Cloudflare 的出色利润</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dc84122254553246848c5eee09615d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>NET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净利润和 FSLY 毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司不得不应对带宽成本急剧增加的问题，而去年其订阅模式本来就不是为其设计的，但随着时间的推移，该公司仍设法将毛利率始终保持在 75% 以上，轻松超过了 FSLY 基于使用量的收入模式。我们相信，公司的全套网络产品帮助公司实现了收入基础的多元化，这进一步证明了公司商业模式在多个市场和垂直行业中的卓越执行力，增强了公司应对任何意外放缓或意外成本激增的收入弹性。如果投资者将 Cloudflare 视为 “万事通”，我们认为它也可能倾向于将其看涨期权为 “万事通”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计息税前利润和自由现金流盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f441756caaca11d36431b00ab64f090\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"678\"><span>NET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净收入预计意味着共识和预计同比收入增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec9b55dc6e235a1304a54224c0f90b7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计息税前利润率和预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 NET 尚未实现 FCF 和 EBIT 盈利能力，但该公司已设定 20% 的长期营业利润率，在我们的模型中，我们认为随着时间的推移，这是高度可以实现的，因为我们预计该公司将实现 EBIT 利润率到 25 财年末达到 15.7%，特别是当该公司仍有望在未来几年实现 30% 以上的快速增长时。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617eade5b53ed1383b6438691464f52\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET LTM SG&amp;A margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM SG&amp;A 净利润。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&amp;A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.</p><p><blockquote>我们的信心主要基于公司在 SG&amp;A 利润率中所表现出的运营杠杆的持续改善，而 SG&amp;A 利润率一直是公司最大的运营费用部分。我们相信，该公司可能会在未来保持这种改善，这将强烈影响其息税前利润率，并推动公司在未来几年实现息税前利润率和自由现金流盈利。因此，这个派对肯定才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained</p><p><blockquote>如果持续执行，估值将是令人信服的</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c991d9200f0424a6c2739f78335a667e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"726\"><span>NET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净电动汽车 / Fwd 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81c5bc076bc34bcc9135201909e8028\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NET NTM (TEV / Rev).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净NTM（TEV/Rev）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们继续为 NET 卓越的商业模式和世界一流的执行力喝彩，但我们也意识到，精明的市场参与者不太可能忘记这一点。因此，我们对 NET 的 EV / FY+1 Rev 值为 52 倍，而过去一年的平均值约为 35.5 倍并不感到惊讶。根据我们对 NET 未来几年预期收入增长率的计算，我们得出的预期股价 4 年复合年增长率为 19.66%，即使在当前价格水平下，如果该公司能够保持其出色的执行记录并实现其增长目标，未来几年的回报可能会跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff2c1614d64bd26c28b2b3c0c17488\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Projected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>预计 25 财年股价和预计 4 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5eac1f8292520dd62f2d5c23328a0a9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"783\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在去年 9 月以 30 美元左右的价格进入了 NET 的全部头寸，但根据目前的价格走势，我们认为现在没有新投资者的最佳入场点，即使我们认为根据目前的价格水平，NET 可能会继续跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们鼓励在决策中考虑价格走势的投资者先等待回调，而不考虑价格走势的投资者如果对未来几年 NET 的执行情况有高度的信心，现在就可以进场。</blockquote></p><p> While we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不会在当前价格水平上增加更多头寸，但我们肯定会将该股保留在我们的观察名单上，以考虑在下一次回撤时增加我们的风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年首次公开募股以来，Cloudflare 一直是投资者真正的优秀公司，我们认为，随着公司在未来几年实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利，公司的增长故事才刚刚开始。NET 的投资者被鼓励坐以待毙，享受未来许多年的稳健增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437171-cloudflare-is-much-more-scalable-than-you-think\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437171-cloudflare-is-much-more-scalable-than-you-think","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181301986","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.\nWhile Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.\nWe present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.\nWhile we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.\n\nSteve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment\nUnderstanding Cloudflare's Business Model\nCloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”\nIn fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:\n\n So the reason that we picked the ticker symbol NET was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have.\n\nWe think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.\nCloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection\nDDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze\nWhile Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and remote browser isolation service (through its S2 Systems Corporation acquisition in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"\nTherefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.\nRapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment\nLarge / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings\nThe company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”\nExpansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR\nWhile investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.\nImportantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”\nDollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings\nThat has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”\nCloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN\nMany investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:\n\n We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven.\n\nWe had recently highlighted in an article on FSLY and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.\nIn fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”\nCEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:\n\n And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses.\n\nTherefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.\nHowever, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:\n\n All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business.\n\nCloudflare's Excellent Margins\nNET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.\nExpected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable\nNET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.\nNET LTM SG&A margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nOur confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.\nValuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained\nNET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNET NTM (TEV / Rev).\nWhile we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.\nProjected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.\nTherefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.\nWhile we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.\nWrapping It All Up\nCloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}