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cruzer
2021-06-05
Go go apple
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cruzer
2021-06-03
Longterm I guess
Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票被高估了吗？</blockquote>
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2021-06-03
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go apple","listText":"Go go apple","text":"Go go apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112411360","repostId":"1158897173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118078324,"gmtCreate":1622710234168,"gmtModify":1634098907280,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Longterm I guess","listText":"Longterm I guess","text":"Longterm I guess","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118078324","repostId":"1160407593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160407593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622706069,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160407593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票被高估了吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160407593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.Apple bulls have to be frus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li> <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li> <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.</li> <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期超出预期，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果 2022 财年的预期过高，可能会导致最近的疲软。</li><li>苹果的市盈率、市销率和市盈率和自由现金流仍大幅提升至历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在未来一年继续保持目前的热销势头。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 PeskyMonkey/iStock 编辑来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 多头必须感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假日季度和第二季度 1 月至 3 月季度的盈利都大幅超出预期，但该股却一事无成。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19 封锁、政府施舍和 5G 的推出都最终将需求拉入了苹果 2021 财年，这一论点得到了新街分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预测天塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在建模<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿英镑之间，而市场普遍认为是2.34亿英镑。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不认为是这样，特别是因为SA撰稿人保罗·桑托斯（Paulo Santos）一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销量，并发现从白热化的开始到今年年初，销量明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac类似的放缓还有几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有道理吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，有一把斧头要磨。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接拥有苹果，并且仍然通过我的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我并不是无论如何都反对它，我只是按照我所看到的方式称呼它——我认为估值非常夸张。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain <b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然存在<b>显著升高</b>- 50% 或更多 - 来自他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的未来收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预计增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性估计假设苹果将在 2022 财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年之间的情况会类似，营业收入从2014财年到2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年温和下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果 2021 财年可能是很长一段时间内的销售额和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着所有这些成功，苹果的经营利润在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月中打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的巨大帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有这次减税，2020 年每股收益将约为 2.88 美元，而不是 3.28 美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为 4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火热的销售业绩不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我把iPad的销量看作是一个例子。在过去的几年里，交易量一直保持稳定，直到去年飙升 57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPad？我选择后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论 - 苹果仍然是卖点</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师立即提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前结果的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我对5G超级周期的看好程度不如大多数人。我相信创新者和早期采用者会争相升级，但大部分大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自己成功的受害者——最近的iPhone都很好，升级到更新的手机不那么有吸引力，而且因为4G对大多数人来说已经“足够好”了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们在今年前两个季度已经赚了3.08美元，目前整个财年的估计是5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，预计每股收益将接近 4-4.50 美元，远低于目前预期的 5.30 美元。这将使市盈率回到 30 以上，并出现负增长。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试 100 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，只是定价太高了。估值总是很重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票被高估了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票被高估了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li> <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li> <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.</li> <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期超出预期，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果 2022 财年的预期过高，可能会导致最近的疲软。</li><li>苹果的市盈率、市销率和市盈率和自由现金流仍大幅提升至历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在未来一年继续保持目前的热销势头。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 PeskyMonkey/iStock 编辑来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 多头必须感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假日季度和第二季度 1 月至 3 月季度的盈利都大幅超出预期，但该股却一事无成。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19 封锁、政府施舍和 5G 的推出都最终将需求拉入了苹果 2021 财年，这一论点得到了新街分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预测天塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在建模<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿英镑之间，而市场普遍认为是2.34亿英镑。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不认为是这样，特别是因为SA撰稿人保罗·桑托斯（Paulo Santos）一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销量，并发现从白热化的开始到今年年初，销量明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac类似的放缓还有几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有道理吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，有一把斧头要磨。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接拥有苹果，并且仍然通过我的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我并不是无论如何都反对它，我只是按照我所看到的方式称呼它——我认为估值非常夸张。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain <b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然存在<b>显著升高</b>- 50% 或更多 - 来自他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的未来收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预计增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性估计假设苹果将在 2022 财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年之间的情况会类似，营业收入从2014财年到2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年温和下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果 2021 财年可能是很长一段时间内的销售额和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着所有这些成功，苹果的经营利润在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月中打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的巨大帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有这次减税，2020 年每股收益将约为 2.88 美元，而不是 3.28 美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为 4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火热的销售业绩不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我把iPad的销量看作是一个例子。在过去的几年里，交易量一直保持稳定，直到去年飙升 57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPad？我选择后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论 - 苹果仍然是卖点</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师立即提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前结果的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我对5G超级周期的看好程度不如大多数人。我相信创新者和早期采用者会争相升级，但大部分大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自己成功的受害者——最近的iPhone都很好，升级到更新的手机不那么有吸引力，而且因为4G对大多数人来说已经“足够好”了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们在今年前两个季度已经赚了3.08美元，目前整个财年的估计是5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，预计每股收益将接近 4-4.50 美元，远低于目前预期的 5.30 美元。这将使市盈率回到 30 以上，并出现负增长。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试 100 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，只是定价太高了。估值总是很重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160407593","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.\nI have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.\n\nPhoto by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.\n\nNew Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modelingiPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.\nWhat is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?\nFrom the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.\nData by YCharts\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated- 50% or more - from their historic norms.\n\nThis is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.\nBut these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.\nApple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time\nSince 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.\nYet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)\n\nUltimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.\n\nDid iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.\nConclusion - Apple is still a Sell\nWall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.\nAdmittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.\n\nApple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.\nApple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118071936,"gmtCreate":1622710189825,"gmtModify":1631886376696,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","text":"$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118071936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118079640,"gmtCreate":1622710085280,"gmtModify":1634098909248,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118079640","repostId":"1178258633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178258633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622709110,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178258633?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金 1-0 Reddit Army</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178258633","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dil","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.</li> <li>Private share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.</li> <li>It looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072cd9d13e01f3f3defe064d4bcf6589\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>私募消息传出后，AMC 股价飙升 23%。</li><li>私募股权稀释了股东，AMC 的价格应该下跌，而不是飙升。</li><li>看起来这家对冲基金刚刚将 Reddit 大军货币化。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线 (AMC) 宣布向一家投资基金私募股票后，该公司股价周二又飙升 23%。通常情况下，增资会导致股价下跌，而不是上涨。这家对冲基金似乎扭转了 Reddit 大军的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reason for AMC's price reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格反应的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.</p><p><blockquote>电影院公司AMC刚刚做了许多公司所做的事情，这些公司有很多债务要偿还，需要面对不确定的未来……他们向投资者提供新股，并将资金作为生存的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> AMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 以 230,500,000 美元的价格向一家名为 Mudrick Capital Management, LP 的投资公司发行了 8,500,000 股股票。这家投资公司专注于事件驱动的投资和不良债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".</p><p><blockquote>AMC表示，将把融资所得用于“追求影院资产和租赁的价值创造收购，以及投资以增强其影院的消费者吸引力”。</blockquote></p><p> Fresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.</p><p><blockquote>非常需要新的资本。AMC 的收入在大流行期间大幅下降，这家连锁影院仍在遭受 COVID-19 关闭限制和社交距离法规的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着大流行似乎即将结束，AMC 的收入预计今年将反弹，但 COVID-19 可能已经永久性地改变了观影习惯。</blockquote></p><p> One big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>AMC面临的一大挑战将是让观众重返电影院。在 COVID-19 和疫情可能加速这一趋势之前，流媒体已经对该行业构成了竞争威胁。许多人似乎对封锁出口有严重的焦虑，所以有一个有效的问题是，一旦疫情结束，电影院是否真的能恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> But back to AMC's announcement.</p><p><blockquote>但回到AMC的公告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价周二飙升 23%，年初至今总回报率超过 1,500%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...</p><p><blockquote>看看AMC的技术状况……股票现在非常非常超买……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda20bf9503e3abf095e0fb05639597b\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>(Source: TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：TradingView）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…</p><p><blockquote>AMC周二的交易量几乎是平均交易量的500%，买卖了近5亿股股票……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188015773070c85dac8627ef00d7320a\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Source: ShortSqueeze)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：ShortSqueeze）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.</p><p><blockquote>然而，考虑到该公司宣布融资，从而增加了股票数量，价格反应实际上毫无意义。随着更多股票的发行，公司的每股收益将下降，因为收益将分配给更多的流通股。对融资的反应通常是股价下跌，而不是上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...</p><p><blockquote>AMC 目前的市值为 14.4b 美元，而 1 月份的市值不到 10 亿美元……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ba9dd813555ed3675587a5cc6c834\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家对冲基金正在扭转 Reddit 大军的局面……</b></blockquote></p><p> Mudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!</p><p><blockquote>据称，Mudrick Capital Management 在周二迅速获得 20% 的股份后，已经退出了其在 AMC 的头寸。因此，Mudrick Capital Management 并不是一家将其不良债务和特殊情况专业知识带给 AMC 的长期投资者……整件事实际上只是一个快速翻转，因为这家投资公司将定价过高的股票出售给散户投资者，散户投资者继续疯狂买入，因为他们希望挤空。该公司自己厚颜无耻地称 AMC “被严重高估”。如果该公司的投资资本获得20%的回报，它昨天就获得了4600万美元的利润……对于一天的工作来说还不错!</blockquote></p><p> While AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMC 可能很乐意以这个估值完成股权融资，但该对冲基金出售其股份的速度比 AMC 提交未注册股权证券出售文件的速度还要快……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Extreme volatility and risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极端波动性和风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.</p><p><blockquote>周二，AMC 的估值变得比以前更加可笑。这家连锁影院几个月前还濒临破产，现在的市盈率为 3。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.</p><p><blockquote>Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 是一家影院竞争对手，本身可能被高估，其市盈率为 1.0。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c3d9572182dca54c798bab323e99b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>这里的风险是不可估量的，因为价格走势和估值对 AMC 来说都没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> AMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的价格昨天应该下跌，而不是上涨，因为增资会稀释……但对于 AMC 来说，一切都不再有意义了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的交易独立于其业务数据和增长前景，在这项“投资”中失去一切的风险极高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Closing thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> A hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.</p><p><blockquote>一家对冲基金刚刚取得了重大胜利，但似乎没有人注意到或关心。</blockquote></p><p> You literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，一家对冲基金以大幅高估的估值将其在 AMC 的股份转让给了 Reddit 大军，并明确称 AMC“估值过高”。再厚颜无耻不过了。请小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金 1-0 Reddit Army</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金 1-0 Reddit Army</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 16:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.</li> <li>Private share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.</li> <li>It looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072cd9d13e01f3f3defe064d4bcf6589\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>私募消息传出后，AMC 股价飙升 23%。</li><li>私募股权稀释了股东，AMC 的价格应该下跌，而不是飙升。</li><li>看起来这家对冲基金刚刚将 Reddit 大军货币化。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线 (AMC) 宣布向一家投资基金私募股票后，该公司股价周二又飙升 23%。通常情况下，增资会导致股价下跌，而不是上涨。这家对冲基金似乎扭转了 Reddit 大军的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reason for AMC's price reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格反应的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.</p><p><blockquote>电影院公司AMC刚刚做了许多公司所做的事情，这些公司有很多债务要偿还，需要面对不确定的未来……他们向投资者提供新股，并将资金作为生存的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> AMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 以 230,500,000 美元的价格向一家名为 Mudrick Capital Management, LP 的投资公司发行了 8,500,000 股股票。这家投资公司专注于事件驱动的投资和不良债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".</p><p><blockquote>AMC表示，将把融资所得用于“追求影院资产和租赁的价值创造收购，以及投资以增强其影院的消费者吸引力”。</blockquote></p><p> Fresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.</p><p><blockquote>非常需要新的资本。AMC 的收入在大流行期间大幅下降，这家连锁影院仍在遭受 COVID-19 关闭限制和社交距离法规的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着大流行似乎即将结束，AMC 的收入预计今年将反弹，但 COVID-19 可能已经永久性地改变了观影习惯。</blockquote></p><p> One big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>AMC面临的一大挑战将是让观众重返电影院。在 COVID-19 和疫情可能加速这一趋势之前，流媒体已经对该行业构成了竞争威胁。许多人似乎对封锁出口有严重的焦虑，所以有一个有效的问题是，一旦疫情结束，电影院是否真的能恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> But back to AMC's announcement.</p><p><blockquote>但回到AMC的公告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价周二飙升 23%，年初至今总回报率超过 1,500%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...</p><p><blockquote>看看AMC的技术状况……股票现在非常非常超买……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda20bf9503e3abf095e0fb05639597b\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>(Source: TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：TradingView）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…</p><p><blockquote>AMC周二的交易量几乎是平均交易量的500%，买卖了近5亿股股票……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188015773070c85dac8627ef00d7320a\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Source: ShortSqueeze)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：ShortSqueeze）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.</p><p><blockquote>然而，考虑到该公司宣布融资，从而增加了股票数量，价格反应实际上毫无意义。随着更多股票的发行，公司的每股收益将下降，因为收益将分配给更多的流通股。对融资的反应通常是股价下跌，而不是上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...</p><p><blockquote>AMC 目前的市值为 14.4b 美元，而 1 月份的市值不到 10 亿美元……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ba9dd813555ed3675587a5cc6c834\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家对冲基金正在扭转 Reddit 大军的局面……</b></blockquote></p><p> Mudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!</p><p><blockquote>据称，Mudrick Capital Management 在周二迅速获得 20% 的股份后，已经退出了其在 AMC 的头寸。因此，Mudrick Capital Management 并不是一家将其不良债务和特殊情况专业知识带给 AMC 的长期投资者……整件事实际上只是一个快速翻转，因为这家投资公司将定价过高的股票出售给散户投资者，散户投资者继续疯狂买入，因为他们希望挤空。该公司自己厚颜无耻地称 AMC “被严重高估”。如果该公司的投资资本获得20%的回报，它昨天就获得了4600万美元的利润……对于一天的工作来说还不错!</blockquote></p><p> While AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMC 可能很乐意以这个估值完成股权融资，但该对冲基金出售其股份的速度比 AMC 提交未注册股权证券出售文件的速度还要快……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Extreme volatility and risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极端波动性和风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.</p><p><blockquote>周二，AMC 的估值变得比以前更加可笑。这家连锁影院几个月前还濒临破产，现在的市盈率为 3。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.</p><p><blockquote>Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 是一家影院竞争对手，本身可能被高估，其市盈率为 1.0。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c3d9572182dca54c798bab323e99b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>这里的风险是不可估量的，因为价格走势和估值对 AMC 来说都没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> AMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的价格昨天应该下跌，而不是上涨，因为增资会稀释……但对于 AMC 来说，一切都不再有意义了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的交易独立于其业务数据和增长前景，在这项“投资”中失去一切的风险极高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Closing thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> A hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.</p><p><blockquote>一家对冲基金刚刚取得了重大胜利，但似乎没有人注意到或关心。</blockquote></p><p> You literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，一家对冲基金以大幅高估的估值将其在 AMC 的股份转让给了 Reddit 大军，并明确称 AMC“估值过高”。再厚颜无耻不过了。请小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178258633","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.\nIt looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.\n\nPhoto by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nShares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.\nReason for AMC's price reaction\nMovie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.\nAMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.\nAMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".\nFresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.\nAlthough AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.\nOne big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.\nBut back to AMC's announcement.\nShares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.\nLooking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...\n(Source: TradingView)\nAMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…\n(Source: ShortSqueeze)\nHowever, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.\nAMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...\nData by YCharts\nA hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…\nMudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!\nWhile AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...\nExtreme volatility and risks...\nAMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.\nCinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.\nData by YCharts\nThe risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.\nAMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.\nAMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.\nClosing thoughts\nA hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.\nYou literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118070562,"gmtCreate":1622710057556,"gmtModify":1634098909591,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118070562","repostId":"1105752559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105752559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622694904,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105752559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 12:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies<blockquote>观点： 玩 AMC 股票的明智方法是什么？尝试这两种期权策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105752559","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves,","content":"<p>AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.</p><p><blockquote>在空头挤压下，AMC 股票波动性极大。在谨慎的前提下，期权可以成为利用这些举措的一种方式。</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been caught in a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股股票在陷入空头挤压后再次爆发。</blockquote></p><p>The stock’s realized and implied volatilities are soaring. AMC at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> point today more than doubled. There are two options strategies, below, to try to capitalize off this uncommon move. (Note that the data in this article are as of the close of trading June 1.)</p><p><blockquote>该股的已实现和隐含波动率正在飙升。AMC在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>今天的积分增加了一倍多。下面有两种期权策略，试图利用这一不寻常的举措。（请注意，本文数据截至6月1日收盘。）</blockquote></p><p>The first chart of AMCAMC,+95.22%,below, tracks two years, showing the stock had been in a general decline through most of 2019. In fact, AMC had been falling since making all-time highs in the mid-$30s in 2015 and 2016.</p><p><blockquote>AMCAMC 的第一张图表（+95.22%，下图）追踪了两年，显示该股在 2019 年的大部分时间里一直处于普遍下跌状态。事实上，自 2015 年和 2016 年创下 30 美元左右的历史高点以来，AMC 一直在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>The stock then slumped further due to the pandemic. Things began to change, however, when it rallied amid a short squeeze in late January 2021. The stock exploded from $2 to $20 in less than a month.</p><p><blockquote>随后，由于疫情，该股进一步下跌。然而，当它在 2021 年 1 月下旬的空头挤压中反弹时，情况开始发生变化。该股在不到一个月的时间里从 2 美元暴涨至 20 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now another short squeeze is under way, and the stock has risen from $9 to over $60 in the last month.</p><p><blockquote>现在又一次空头挤压正在进行中，该股上个月已从9美元上涨至60美元以上。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd994b6947e51ac1dd241aebc098785c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>It is impossible to justify these moves in terms of fundamental or even technical analysis, but there are opportunities presented by the options markets. As might be expected, the options have gotten extremely expensive. The next chart is a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year, showing the<i>composite</i>implied volatility of AMC options on top and the price of the stock on the bottom. (Composite implied volatility is a weighted volatility of the most active options on AMC.)</p><p><blockquote>从基本面甚至技术分析的角度来看，不可能证明这些走势是合理的，但期权市场提供了机会。正如所料，这些期权已经变得极其昂贵。下一个图表是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-年，显示<i>复合的</i>顶部是 AMC 期权的隐含波动率，底部是股票价格。（综合隐含波动率是 AMC 上最活跃期权的加权波动率。）</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0833b40f70599f8f813f2c0eaa3a7c8b\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The composite implied volatility has risen to more than 200%. (Don’t worry about what that means statistically, just use it as a comparative measure — 200% is a<i>lot</i>higher than the “normal” volatility, up to four times that of its pre-pandemic level.)</p><p><blockquote>综合隐含波动率已升至200%以上。（不要担心这在统计学上意味着什么，只需将其作为一个比较指标——200% 是一个<i>很多</i>高于“正常”波动性，高达大流行前水平的四倍）。</blockquote></p><p>So, what option strategies make sense? Simply buying expensive options is justifiable while volatility remains high, believe it or not. The 10-day realized (historical) volatility of AMC is now an astounding 211%. The 20-day historical volatility (HV) is 160%.</p><p><blockquote>那么，哪些期权策略有意义呢？信不信由你，在波动性仍然很高的情况下，简单地购买昂贵的期权是合理的。AMC 的 10 天实现（历史）波动性现在达到了惊人的 211%。20天历史波动率（HV）为160%。</blockquote></p><p>However, those volatilities will drop quickly if the stock starts to stabilize — wherever that may be. But as long as they hold up, at-the-money options are not a lot more expensive than that, in terms of implied volatility. However,<i>out-of-the-money</i>options are much more expensive, and those are generally unattractive purchases — certainly not based on a statistical basis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果股市开始企稳，这些波动性将会迅速下降——不管可能在哪里。但只要它们坚持下去，就隐含波动性而言，平价期权并不比平价期权贵多少。然而，<i>现金外</i>期权要贵得多，而且这些购买通常没有吸引力——当然不是基于统计基础。</blockquote></p><p>Many traders want to sell the options because they think they are so overpriced. Well, they may be overpriced, but at current volatility levels, the stock can move a great distance and cause ruin for an options-selling strategy.</p><p><blockquote>许多交易者想要出售期权，因为他们认为期权定价过高。嗯，它们可能定价过高，但在当前的波动性水平下，股票可能会波动很大的距离，并导致期权销售策略的毁灭。</blockquote></p><p>One can see from the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year chart of AMC that after the last short squeeze, the stock dropped quickly, but never got back to the prices from which the short squeeze was launched. That is typical behavior in a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-AMC 年度图显示，上次逼空后，该股迅速下跌，但再也没有回到逼空时的价格。这是做空时的典型行为。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the two following charts — of Riot BlockchainRIOT,+2.74%and GameStopGME,+13.34%— both of which have been short squeezes. RIOT was also a short squeeze when it first came public, in late 2017 (not shown on the chart).</p><p><blockquote>考虑以下两张图表——Riot BlockchainRIOT，+2.74% 和 GameStopGME，+13.34%——这两张图表都是空头挤压。RIOT 于 2017 年底首次上市时也是一次空头挤压（图表中未显示）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda30eb7b24e1715b109a7c7f42a2623\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e235888f2cd914eacad62e402d2397c7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>In both of those cases, a similar pattern appears: The short squeeze ends, the stock falls, but not all the way back to its “pre-squeeze” price, at least not for a while.</p><p><blockquote>在这两种情况下，都会出现类似的模式： 空头挤压结束，股票下跌，但不会完全回到 “挤压前 ”的价格，至少在一段时间内不会。</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> options strategies could take advantage of this:</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">二</a>期权策略可以利用这一点：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ol><li><b>A bear put spread.</b>Buy puts with striking prices just below the current elevated stock price<i>and</i>sell puts with a significantly lower strike price. This strategy generally has an advantage in that the implied volatility of the put you are buying is lower than the implied volatility of the put you are selling. You can’t lose more money than the debit you pay for the spread, but you could lose 100% of that debit if the stock continues to rise and the options expire worthless.</li><li><b>Sell put credit spreads with strikes at or near the price of AMC</b><b><i>prior</i></b><b>to the short squeeze.</b>AMC was in the teens before this latest round of short squeeze began. The potential gain here would be the credit initially received, but the margin requirement — which is equal to the risk in the spread — is the difference in the strikes, less the credit received. A derivative of this strategy, for extremely aggressive accounts, would be to sell puts (naked) with strikes in the teens.</li></ol>Obviously, there are lot of options combinations that could be considered, but these are two relatively simple spread strategies that will pay off if AMC behaves like other short squeezes: Eventually the stock peaks and begins to fall, but it doesn’t fall far enough to reach its “pre-squeeze” levels.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>一只熊摊开了。</b>以略低于当前上涨股价的惊人价格购买看跌期权<i>和</i>以明显较低的执行价格出售看跌期权。这种策略通常具有优势，即您买入的看跌期权的隐含波动率低于您卖出的看跌期权的隐含波动率。你损失的钱不会超过你为点差支付的借方，但如果股票继续上涨，而期权到期时一文不值，你可能会损失 100% 的借方。</li><li><b>以 AMC 价格或接近 AMC 价格的价格出售看跌信用利差</b><b><i>先前的</i></b><b>到空头挤压。</b>在最新一轮空头挤压开始之前，AMC 才十几岁。这里的潜在收益将是最初获得的信贷，但保证金要求——等于价差中的风险——是罢工的差额减去获得的信贷。对于极其激进的账户来说，这一策略的衍生产品是在十几岁时出售看跌期权（裸）。</li></ol>显然，可以考虑很多期权组合，但这两种相对简单的价差策略如果 AMC 的行为像其他空头挤压一样，就会得到回报： 最终股票见顶并开始下跌，但跌幅不足以达到 “挤压前 ”水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies<blockquote>观点： 玩 AMC 股票的明智方法是什么？尝试这两种期权策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: What’s the smart way to play AMC’s stock? Try these two options strategies<blockquote>观点： 玩 AMC 股票的明智方法是什么？尝试这两种期权策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 12:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.</p><p><blockquote>在空头挤压下，AMC 股票波动性极大。在谨慎的前提下，期权可以成为利用这些举措的一种方式。</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been caught in a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>控股股票在陷入空头挤压后再次爆发。</blockquote></p><p>The stock’s realized and implied volatilities are soaring. AMC at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> point today more than doubled. There are two options strategies, below, to try to capitalize off this uncommon move. (Note that the data in this article are as of the close of trading June 1.)</p><p><blockquote>该股的已实现和隐含波动率正在飙升。AMC在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>今天的积分增加了一倍多。下面有两种期权策略，试图利用这一不寻常的举措。（请注意，本文数据截至6月1日收盘。）</blockquote></p><p>The first chart of AMCAMC,+95.22%,below, tracks two years, showing the stock had been in a general decline through most of 2019. In fact, AMC had been falling since making all-time highs in the mid-$30s in 2015 and 2016.</p><p><blockquote>AMCAMC 的第一张图表（+95.22%，下图）追踪了两年，显示该股在 2019 年的大部分时间里一直处于普遍下跌状态。事实上，自 2015 年和 2016 年创下 30 美元左右的历史高点以来，AMC 一直在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>The stock then slumped further due to the pandemic. Things began to change, however, when it rallied amid a short squeeze in late January 2021. The stock exploded from $2 to $20 in less than a month.</p><p><blockquote>随后，由于疫情，该股进一步下跌。然而，当它在 2021 年 1 月下旬的空头挤压中反弹时，情况开始发生变化。该股在不到一个月的时间里从 2 美元暴涨至 20 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now another short squeeze is under way, and the stock has risen from $9 to over $60 in the last month.</p><p><blockquote>现在又一次空头挤压正在进行中，该股上个月已从9美元上涨至60美元以上。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd994b6947e51ac1dd241aebc098785c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>It is impossible to justify these moves in terms of fundamental or even technical analysis, but there are opportunities presented by the options markets. As might be expected, the options have gotten extremely expensive. The next chart is a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year, showing the<i>composite</i>implied volatility of AMC options on top and the price of the stock on the bottom. (Composite implied volatility is a weighted volatility of the most active options on AMC.)</p><p><blockquote>从基本面甚至技术分析的角度来看，不可能证明这些走势是合理的，但期权市场提供了机会。正如所料，这些期权已经变得极其昂贵。下一个图表是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-年，显示<i>复合的</i>顶部是 AMC 期权的隐含波动率，底部是股票价格。（综合隐含波动率是 AMC 上最活跃期权的加权波动率。）</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0833b40f70599f8f813f2c0eaa3a7c8b\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The composite implied volatility has risen to more than 200%. (Don’t worry about what that means statistically, just use it as a comparative measure — 200% is a<i>lot</i>higher than the “normal” volatility, up to four times that of its pre-pandemic level.)</p><p><blockquote>综合隐含波动率已升至200%以上。（不要担心这在统计学上意味着什么，只需将其作为一个比较指标——200% 是一个<i>很多</i>高于“正常”波动性，高达大流行前水平的四倍）。</blockquote></p><p>So, what option strategies make sense? Simply buying expensive options is justifiable while volatility remains high, believe it or not. The 10-day realized (historical) volatility of AMC is now an astounding 211%. The 20-day historical volatility (HV) is 160%.</p><p><blockquote>那么，哪些期权策略有意义呢？信不信由你，在波动性仍然很高的情况下，简单地购买昂贵的期权是合理的。AMC 的 10 天实现（历史）波动性现在达到了惊人的 211%。20天历史波动率（HV）为160%。</blockquote></p><p>However, those volatilities will drop quickly if the stock starts to stabilize — wherever that may be. But as long as they hold up, at-the-money options are not a lot more expensive than that, in terms of implied volatility. However,<i>out-of-the-money</i>options are much more expensive, and those are generally unattractive purchases — certainly not based on a statistical basis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果股市开始企稳，这些波动性将会迅速下降——不管可能在哪里。但只要它们坚持下去，就隐含波动性而言，平价期权并不比平价期权贵多少。然而，<i>现金外</i>期权要贵得多，而且这些购买通常没有吸引力——当然不是基于统计基础。</blockquote></p><p>Many traders want to sell the options because they think they are so overpriced. Well, they may be overpriced, but at current volatility levels, the stock can move a great distance and cause ruin for an options-selling strategy.</p><p><blockquote>许多交易者想要出售期权，因为他们认为期权定价过高。嗯，它们可能定价过高，但在当前的波动性水平下，股票可能会波动很大的距离，并导致期权销售策略的毁灭。</blockquote></p><p>One can see from the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year chart of AMC that after the last short squeeze, the stock dropped quickly, but never got back to the prices from which the short squeeze was launched. That is typical behavior in a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-AMC 年度图显示，上次逼空后，该股迅速下跌，但再也没有回到逼空时的价格。这是做空时的典型行为。</blockquote></p><p>Consider the two following charts — of Riot BlockchainRIOT,+2.74%and GameStopGME,+13.34%— both of which have been short squeezes. RIOT was also a short squeeze when it first came public, in late 2017 (not shown on the chart).</p><p><blockquote>考虑以下两张图表——Riot BlockchainRIOT，+2.74% 和 GameStopGME，+13.34%——这两张图表都是空头挤压。RIOT 于 2017 年底首次上市时也是一次空头挤压（图表中未显示）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda30eb7b24e1715b109a7c7f42a2623\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e235888f2cd914eacad62e402d2397c7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>In both of those cases, a similar pattern appears: The short squeeze ends, the stock falls, but not all the way back to its “pre-squeeze” price, at least not for a while.</p><p><blockquote>在这两种情况下，都会出现类似的模式： 空头挤压结束，股票下跌，但不会完全回到 “挤压前 ”的价格，至少在一段时间内不会。</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> options strategies could take advantage of this:</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">二</a>期权策略可以利用这一点：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><ol><li><b>A bear put spread.</b>Buy puts with striking prices just below the current elevated stock price<i>and</i>sell puts with a significantly lower strike price. This strategy generally has an advantage in that the implied volatility of the put you are buying is lower than the implied volatility of the put you are selling. You can’t lose more money than the debit you pay for the spread, but you could lose 100% of that debit if the stock continues to rise and the options expire worthless.</li><li><b>Sell put credit spreads with strikes at or near the price of AMC</b><b><i>prior</i></b><b>to the short squeeze.</b>AMC was in the teens before this latest round of short squeeze began. The potential gain here would be the credit initially received, but the margin requirement — which is equal to the risk in the spread — is the difference in the strikes, less the credit received. A derivative of this strategy, for extremely aggressive accounts, would be to sell puts (naked) with strikes in the teens.</li></ol>Obviously, there are lot of options combinations that could be considered, but these are two relatively simple spread strategies that will pay off if AMC behaves like other short squeezes: Eventually the stock peaks and begins to fall, but it doesn’t fall far enough to reach its “pre-squeeze” levels.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>一只熊摊开了。</b>以略低于当前上涨股价的惊人价格购买看跌期权<i>和</i>以明显较低的执行价格出售看跌期权。这种策略通常具有优势，即您买入的看跌期权的隐含波动率低于您卖出的看跌期权的隐含波动率。你损失的钱不会超过你为点差支付的借方，但如果股票继续上涨，而期权到期时一文不值，你可能会损失 100% 的借方。</li><li><b>以 AMC 价格或接近 AMC 价格的价格出售看跌信用利差</b><b><i>先前的</i></b><b>到空头挤压。</b>在最新一轮空头挤压开始之前，AMC 才十几岁。这里的潜在收益将是最初获得的信贷，但保证金要求——等于价差中的风险——是罢工的差额减去获得的信贷。对于极其激进的账户来说，这一策略的衍生产品是在十几岁时出售看跌期权（裸）。</li></ol>显然，可以考虑很多期权组合，但这两种相对简单的价差策略如果 AMC 的行为像其他空头挤压一样，就会得到回报： 最终股票见顶并开始下跌，但跌幅不足以达到 “挤压前 ”水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-smart-way-to-play-amcs-stock-try-these-two-options-strategies-11622657539?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105752559","content_text":"AMC shares are super-volatile amid a short squeeze. Options can be a way to capitalize on the moves, with a measure of prudence.AMC Entertainment Holdings shares are once again exploding, having been caught in a short squeeze.The stock’s realized and implied volatilities are soaring. AMC at one point today more than doubled. There are two options strategies, below, to try to capitalize off this uncommon move. (Note that the data in this article are as of the close of trading June 1.)The first chart of AMCAMC,+95.22%,below, tracks two years, showing the stock had been in a general decline through most of 2019. In fact, AMC had been falling since making all-time highs in the mid-$30s in 2015 and 2016.The stock then slumped further due to the pandemic. Things began to change, however, when it rallied amid a short squeeze in late January 2021. The stock exploded from $2 to $20 in less than a month.Now another short squeeze is under way, and the stock has risen from $9 to over $60 in the last month.It is impossible to justify these moves in terms of fundamental or even technical analysis, but there are opportunities presented by the options markets. As might be expected, the options have gotten extremely expensive. The next chart is a one-year, showing thecompositeimplied volatility of AMC options on top and the price of the stock on the bottom. (Composite implied volatility is a weighted volatility of the most active options on AMC.)The composite implied volatility has risen to more than 200%. (Don’t worry about what that means statistically, just use it as a comparative measure — 200% is alothigher than the “normal” volatility, up to four times that of its pre-pandemic level.)So, what option strategies make sense? Simply buying expensive options is justifiable while volatility remains high, believe it or not. The 10-day realized (historical) volatility of AMC is now an astounding 211%. The 20-day historical volatility (HV) is 160%.However, those volatilities will drop quickly if the stock starts to stabilize — wherever that may be. But as long as they hold up, at-the-money options are not a lot more expensive than that, in terms of implied volatility. However,out-of-the-moneyoptions are much more expensive, and those are generally unattractive purchases — certainly not based on a statistical basis.Many traders want to sell the options because they think they are so overpriced. Well, they may be overpriced, but at current volatility levels, the stock can move a great distance and cause ruin for an options-selling strategy.One can see from the one-year chart of AMC that after the last short squeeze, the stock dropped quickly, but never got back to the prices from which the short squeeze was launched. That is typical behavior in a short squeeze.Consider the two following charts — of Riot BlockchainRIOT,+2.74%and GameStopGME,+13.34%— both of which have been short squeezes. RIOT was also a short squeeze when it first came public, in late 2017 (not shown on the chart).In both of those cases, a similar pattern appears: The short squeeze ends, the stock falls, but not all the way back to its “pre-squeeze” price, at least not for a while.Two options strategies could take advantage of this:A bear put spread.Buy puts with striking prices just below the current elevated stock priceandsell puts with a significantly lower strike price. This strategy generally has an advantage in that the implied volatility of the put you are buying is lower than the implied volatility of the put you are selling. You can’t lose more money than the debit you pay for the spread, but you could lose 100% of that debit if the stock continues to rise and the options expire worthless.Sell put credit spreads with strikes at or near the price of AMCpriorto the short squeeze.AMC was in the teens before this latest round of short squeeze began. The potential gain here would be the credit initially received, but the margin requirement — which is equal to the risk in the spread — is the difference in the strikes, less the credit received. A derivative of this strategy, for extremely aggressive accounts, would be to sell puts (naked) with strikes in the teens.Obviously, there are lot of options combinations that could be considered, but these are two relatively simple spread strategies that will pay off if AMC behaves like other short squeezes: Eventually the stock peaks and begins to fall, but it doesn’t fall far enough to reach its “pre-squeeze” levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":112411360,"gmtCreate":1622900739150,"gmtModify":1634096993538,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go go apple","listText":"Go go apple","text":"Go go apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112411360","repostId":"1158897173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118078324,"gmtCreate":1622710234168,"gmtModify":1634098907280,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Longterm I guess","listText":"Longterm I guess","text":"Longterm I guess","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118078324","repostId":"1160407593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160407593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622706069,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160407593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票被高估了吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160407593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.Apple bulls have to be frus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li> <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li> <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.</li> <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期超出预期，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果 2022 财年的预期过高，可能会导致最近的疲软。</li><li>苹果的市盈率、市销率和市盈率和自由现金流仍大幅提升至历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在未来一年继续保持目前的热销势头。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 PeskyMonkey/iStock 编辑来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 多头必须感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假日季度和第二季度 1 月至 3 月季度的盈利都大幅超出预期，但该股却一事无成。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19 封锁、政府施舍和 5G 的推出都最终将需求拉入了苹果 2021 财年，这一论点得到了新街分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预测天塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在建模<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿英镑之间，而市场普遍认为是2.34亿英镑。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不认为是这样，特别是因为SA撰稿人保罗·桑托斯（Paulo Santos）一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销量，并发现从白热化的开始到今年年初，销量明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac类似的放缓还有几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有道理吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，有一把斧头要磨。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接拥有苹果，并且仍然通过我的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我并不是无论如何都反对它，我只是按照我所看到的方式称呼它——我认为估值非常夸张。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain <b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然存在<b>显著升高</b>- 50% 或更多 - 来自他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的未来收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预计增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性估计假设苹果将在 2022 财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年之间的情况会类似，营业收入从2014财年到2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年温和下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果 2021 财年可能是很长一段时间内的销售额和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着所有这些成功，苹果的经营利润在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月中打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的巨大帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有这次减税，2020 年每股收益将约为 2.88 美元，而不是 3.28 美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为 4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火热的销售业绩不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我把iPad的销量看作是一个例子。在过去的几年里，交易量一直保持稳定，直到去年飙升 57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPad？我选择后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论 - 苹果仍然是卖点</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师立即提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前结果的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我对5G超级周期的看好程度不如大多数人。我相信创新者和早期采用者会争相升级，但大部分大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自己成功的受害者——最近的iPhone都很好，升级到更新的手机不那么有吸引力，而且因为4G对大多数人来说已经“足够好”了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们在今年前两个季度已经赚了3.08美元，目前整个财年的估计是5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，预计每股收益将接近 4-4.50 美元，远低于目前预期的 5.30 美元。这将使市盈率回到 30 以上，并出现负增长。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试 100 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，只是定价太高了。估值总是很重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票被高估了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票被高估了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li> <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li> <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.</li> <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期超出预期，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果 2022 财年的预期过高，可能会导致最近的疲软。</li><li>苹果的市盈率、市销率和市盈率和自由现金流仍大幅提升至历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在未来一年继续保持目前的热销势头。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 PeskyMonkey/iStock 编辑来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 多头必须感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假日季度和第二季度 1 月至 3 月季度的盈利都大幅超出预期，但该股却一事无成。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19 封锁、政府施舍和 5G 的推出都最终将需求拉入了苹果 2021 财年，这一论点得到了新街分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预测天塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在建模<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿英镑之间，而市场普遍认为是2.34亿英镑。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不认为是这样，特别是因为SA撰稿人保罗·桑托斯（Paulo Santos）一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销量，并发现从白热化的开始到今年年初，销量明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac类似的放缓还有几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有道理吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，有一把斧头要磨。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接拥有苹果，并且仍然通过我的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我并不是无论如何都反对它，我只是按照我所看到的方式称呼它——我认为估值非常夸张。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain <b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然存在<b>显著升高</b>- 50% 或更多 - 来自他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的未来收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预计增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性估计假设苹果将在 2022 财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年之间的情况会类似，营业收入从2014财年到2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年温和下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果 2021 财年可能是很长一段时间内的销售额和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着所有这些成功，苹果的经营利润在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月中打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的巨大帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有这次减税，2020 年每股收益将约为 2.88 美元，而不是 3.28 美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为 4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火热的销售业绩不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我把iPad的销量看作是一个例子。在过去的几年里，交易量一直保持稳定，直到去年飙升 57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPad？我选择后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论 - 苹果仍然是卖点</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师立即提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前结果的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我对5G超级周期的看好程度不如大多数人。我相信创新者和早期采用者会争相升级，但大部分大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自己成功的受害者——最近的iPhone都很好，升级到更新的手机不那么有吸引力，而且因为4G对大多数人来说已经“足够好”了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们在今年前两个季度已经赚了3.08美元，目前整个财年的估计是5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，预计每股收益将接近 4-4.50 美元，远低于目前预期的 5.30 美元。这将使市盈率回到 30 以上，并出现负增长。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试 100 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，只是定价太高了。估值总是很重要。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160407593","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.\nI have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.\n\nPhoto by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.\n\nNew Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modelingiPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.\nWhat is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?\nFrom the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.\nData by YCharts\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated- 50% or more - from their historic norms.\n\nThis is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.\nBut these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.\nApple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time\nSince 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.\nYet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)\n\nUltimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.\n\nDid iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.\nConclusion - Apple is still a Sell\nWall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.\nAdmittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.\n\nApple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.\nApple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118071936,"gmtCreate":1622710189825,"gmtModify":1631886376696,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>up up","text":"$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118071936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118079640,"gmtCreate":1622710085280,"gmtModify":1634098909248,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118079640","repostId":"1178258633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178258633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622709110,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178258633?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金 1-0 Reddit Army</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178258633","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dil","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.</li> <li>Private share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.</li> <li>It looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072cd9d13e01f3f3defe064d4bcf6589\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>私募消息传出后，AMC 股价飙升 23%。</li><li>私募股权稀释了股东，AMC 的价格应该下跌，而不是飙升。</li><li>看起来这家对冲基金刚刚将 Reddit 大军货币化。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线 (AMC) 宣布向一家投资基金私募股票后，该公司股价周二又飙升 23%。通常情况下，增资会导致股价下跌，而不是上涨。这家对冲基金似乎扭转了 Reddit 大军的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reason for AMC's price reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格反应的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.</p><p><blockquote>电影院公司AMC刚刚做了许多公司所做的事情，这些公司有很多债务要偿还，需要面对不确定的未来……他们向投资者提供新股，并将资金作为生存的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> AMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 以 230,500,000 美元的价格向一家名为 Mudrick Capital Management, LP 的投资公司发行了 8,500,000 股股票。这家投资公司专注于事件驱动的投资和不良债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".</p><p><blockquote>AMC表示，将把融资所得用于“追求影院资产和租赁的价值创造收购，以及投资以增强其影院的消费者吸引力”。</blockquote></p><p> Fresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.</p><p><blockquote>非常需要新的资本。AMC 的收入在大流行期间大幅下降，这家连锁影院仍在遭受 COVID-19 关闭限制和社交距离法规的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着大流行似乎即将结束，AMC 的收入预计今年将反弹，但 COVID-19 可能已经永久性地改变了观影习惯。</blockquote></p><p> One big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>AMC面临的一大挑战将是让观众重返电影院。在 COVID-19 和疫情可能加速这一趋势之前，流媒体已经对该行业构成了竞争威胁。许多人似乎对封锁出口有严重的焦虑，所以有一个有效的问题是，一旦疫情结束，电影院是否真的能恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> But back to AMC's announcement.</p><p><blockquote>但回到AMC的公告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价周二飙升 23%，年初至今总回报率超过 1,500%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...</p><p><blockquote>看看AMC的技术状况……股票现在非常非常超买……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda20bf9503e3abf095e0fb05639597b\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>(Source: TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：TradingView）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…</p><p><blockquote>AMC周二的交易量几乎是平均交易量的500%，买卖了近5亿股股票……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188015773070c85dac8627ef00d7320a\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Source: ShortSqueeze)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：ShortSqueeze）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.</p><p><blockquote>然而，考虑到该公司宣布融资，从而增加了股票数量，价格反应实际上毫无意义。随着更多股票的发行，公司的每股收益将下降，因为收益将分配给更多的流通股。对融资的反应通常是股价下跌，而不是上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...</p><p><blockquote>AMC 目前的市值为 14.4b 美元，而 1 月份的市值不到 10 亿美元……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ba9dd813555ed3675587a5cc6c834\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家对冲基金正在扭转 Reddit 大军的局面……</b></blockquote></p><p> Mudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!</p><p><blockquote>据称，Mudrick Capital Management 在周二迅速获得 20% 的股份后，已经退出了其在 AMC 的头寸。因此，Mudrick Capital Management 并不是一家将其不良债务和特殊情况专业知识带给 AMC 的长期投资者……整件事实际上只是一个快速翻转，因为这家投资公司将定价过高的股票出售给散户投资者，散户投资者继续疯狂买入，因为他们希望挤空。该公司自己厚颜无耻地称 AMC “被严重高估”。如果该公司的投资资本获得20%的回报，它昨天就获得了4600万美元的利润……对于一天的工作来说还不错!</blockquote></p><p> While AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMC 可能很乐意以这个估值完成股权融资，但该对冲基金出售其股份的速度比 AMC 提交未注册股权证券出售文件的速度还要快……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Extreme volatility and risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极端波动性和风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.</p><p><blockquote>周二，AMC 的估值变得比以前更加可笑。这家连锁影院几个月前还濒临破产，现在的市盈率为 3。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.</p><p><blockquote>Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 是一家影院竞争对手，本身可能被高估，其市盈率为 1.0。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c3d9572182dca54c798bab323e99b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>这里的风险是不可估量的，因为价格走势和估值对 AMC 来说都没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> AMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的价格昨天应该下跌，而不是上涨，因为增资会稀释……但对于 AMC 来说，一切都不再有意义了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的交易独立于其业务数据和增长前景，在这项“投资”中失去一切的风险极高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Closing thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> A hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.</p><p><blockquote>一家对冲基金刚刚取得了重大胜利，但似乎没有人注意到或关心。</blockquote></p><p> You literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，一家对冲基金以大幅高估的估值将其在 AMC 的股份转让给了 Reddit 大军，并明确称 AMC“估值过高”。再厚颜无耻不过了。请小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金 1-0 Reddit Army</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Hedge Fund 1-0 Reddit Army<blockquote>AMC：对冲基金 1-0 Reddit Army</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 16:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.</li> <li>Private share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.</li> <li>It looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072cd9d13e01f3f3defe064d4bcf6589\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>私募消息传出后，AMC 股价飙升 23%。</li><li>私募股权稀释了股东，AMC 的价格应该下跌，而不是飙升。</li><li>看起来这家对冲基金刚刚将 Reddit 大军货币化。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线 (AMC) 宣布向一家投资基金私募股票后，该公司股价周二又飙升 23%。通常情况下，增资会导致股价下跌，而不是上涨。这家对冲基金似乎扭转了 Reddit 大军的局面。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reason for AMC's price reaction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMC价格反应的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> Movie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.</p><p><blockquote>电影院公司AMC刚刚做了许多公司所做的事情，这些公司有很多债务要偿还，需要面对不确定的未来……他们向投资者提供新股，并将资金作为生存的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> AMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 以 230,500,000 美元的价格向一家名为 Mudrick Capital Management, LP 的投资公司发行了 8,500,000 股股票。这家投资公司专注于事件驱动的投资和不良债务。</blockquote></p><p> AMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".</p><p><blockquote>AMC表示，将把融资所得用于“追求影院资产和租赁的价值创造收购，以及投资以增强其影院的消费者吸引力”。</blockquote></p><p> Fresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.</p><p><blockquote>非常需要新的资本。AMC 的收入在大流行期间大幅下降，这家连锁影院仍在遭受 COVID-19 关闭限制和社交距离法规的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管随着大流行似乎即将结束，AMC 的收入预计今年将反弹，但 COVID-19 可能已经永久性地改变了观影习惯。</blockquote></p><p> One big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.</p><p><blockquote>AMC面临的一大挑战将是让观众重返电影院。在 COVID-19 和疫情可能加速这一趋势之前，流媒体已经对该行业构成了竞争威胁。许多人似乎对封锁出口有严重的焦虑，所以有一个有效的问题是，一旦疫情结束，电影院是否真的能恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> But back to AMC's announcement.</p><p><blockquote>但回到AMC的公告。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价周二飙升 23%，年初至今总回报率超过 1,500%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...</p><p><blockquote>看看AMC的技术状况……股票现在非常非常超买……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda20bf9503e3abf095e0fb05639597b\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>(Source: TradingView)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：TradingView）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…</p><p><blockquote>AMC周二的交易量几乎是平均交易量的500%，买卖了近5亿股股票……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188015773070c85dac8627ef00d7320a\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>(Source: ShortSqueeze)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：ShortSqueeze）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.</p><p><blockquote>然而，考虑到该公司宣布融资，从而增加了股票数量，价格反应实际上毫无意义。随着更多股票的发行，公司的每股收益将下降，因为收益将分配给更多的流通股。对融资的反应通常是股价下跌，而不是上涨。</blockquote></p><p> AMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...</p><p><blockquote>AMC 目前的市值为 14.4b 美元，而 1 月份的市值不到 10 亿美元……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466ba9dd813555ed3675587a5cc6c834\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家对冲基金正在扭转 Reddit 大军的局面……</b></blockquote></p><p> Mudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!</p><p><blockquote>据称，Mudrick Capital Management 在周二迅速获得 20% 的股份后，已经退出了其在 AMC 的头寸。因此，Mudrick Capital Management 并不是一家将其不良债务和特殊情况专业知识带给 AMC 的长期投资者……整件事实际上只是一个快速翻转，因为这家投资公司将定价过高的股票出售给散户投资者，散户投资者继续疯狂买入，因为他们希望挤空。该公司自己厚颜无耻地称 AMC “被严重高估”。如果该公司的投资资本获得20%的回报，它昨天就获得了4600万美元的利润……对于一天的工作来说还不错!</blockquote></p><p> While AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AMC 可能很乐意以这个估值完成股权融资，但该对冲基金出售其股份的速度比 AMC 提交未注册股权证券出售文件的速度还要快……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Extreme volatility and risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极端波动性和风险……</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.</p><p><blockquote>周二，AMC 的估值变得比以前更加可笑。这家连锁影院几个月前还濒临破产，现在的市盈率为 3。</blockquote></p><p> Cinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.</p><p><blockquote>Cinemark Holdings (CNK) 是一家影院竞争对手，本身可能被高估，其市盈率为 1.0。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81c3d9572182dca54c798bab323e99b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.</p><p><blockquote>这里的风险是不可估量的，因为价格走势和估值对 AMC 来说都没有任何意义。</blockquote></p><p> AMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的价格昨天应该下跌，而不是上涨，因为增资会稀释……但对于 AMC 来说，一切都不再有意义了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的交易独立于其业务数据和增长前景，在这项“投资”中失去一切的风险极高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Closing thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> A hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.</p><p><blockquote>一家对冲基金刚刚取得了重大胜利，但似乎没有人注意到或关心。</blockquote></p><p> You literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.</p><p><blockquote>实际上，一家对冲基金以大幅高估的估值将其在 AMC 的股份转让给了 Reddit 大军，并明确称 AMC“估值过高”。再厚颜无耻不过了。请小心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432676-amc-hedge-fund-reddit-army","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178258633","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of AMC surged 23% on news of a private share placement.\nPrivate share placements dilute shareholders and AMC's price should have gone down, not surged.\nIt looks as if this hedge fund just monetized the Reddit army.\n\nPhoto by Tom Cooper/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images\nShares of AMC Entertainment (AMC) surged another 23% on Tuesday after the movie theater chain announced a private placement of shares to an investment fund. Normally, capital raises cause stock prices to fall, not increase. The hedge fund looks to have turned the tables on the Reddit army.\nReason for AMC's price reaction\nMovie theater company AMC just did what a lot of companies do that have a lot of debt to service and need to confront an uncertain future… they offer new shares to investors and use the funds as a life line to survive.\nAMC issued 8,500,000 shares for $230,500,000 to an investment firm named Mudrick Capital Management, LP. The investment firm has a focus on event-driven investing and distressed debt.\nAMC said that it will use the proceeds from the capital raise for the \"pursuit of value creating acquisitions of theater assets and leases, as well as investments to enhance the consumer appeal of its theaters\".\nFresh capital is much needed. AMC's revenues cratered during the pandemic and the theater chain is still suffering from COVID-19 shutdown restrictions and social distancing regulations.\nAlthough AMC's revenues are expected to bounce back this year as the pandemic seemingly comes to an end, COVID-19 may have changed movie viewing habits permanently.\nOne big challenge for AMC will be to get viewers back into its movie theaters. Streaming already was a competitive threat to the industry before COVID-19 and the pandemic may have accelerated this trend. A lot of people seem to have serious anxiety regarding a lockdown exit, so there is a valid question to be asked if movie theaters can really return to normal once the pandemic ends.\nBut back to AMC's announcement.\nShares of AMC surged 23% on Tuesday, which brings the total year-to-date return to more than 1,500%.\nLooking at the technical situation of AMC… shares are now very, very much overbought...\n(Source: TradingView)\nAMC's trading volume on Tuesday was almost 500% the average trading volume with almost half a billion shares being bought and sold…\n(Source: ShortSqueeze)\nHowever, the price reaction literally makes no sense given that the firm announced a capital raise, which increases the number of shares. As more shares are issued, the firms EPS is poised to decline as earnings are distributed over a larger amount of outstanding shares. The reaction to a capital raise is typically for the share price to fall, not to increase.\nAMC now has a market capitalization of $14.4b compared to less than $1b in January...\nData by YCharts\nA hedge fund is turning the tables on the Reddit army…\nMudrick Capital Management is said to have already exited its position in AMC after making a quick 20% on Tuesday. So Mudrick Capital Management is not a long term investor that is bringing its distressed debt and special situation expertise to AMC… the whole thing was really just a quick flip as the investment firm offloaded overpriced shares to retail investors that continue to buy into the frenzy because they hope for a short squeeze. The firm itself brazenly called AMC \"massively overvalued.\" If the firm made a 20% return on its invested capital, it secured $46m in profits yesterday… not bad for a day's work!\nWhile AMC was likely happy to get an equity raise done at this valuation, the hedge fund sold its stake faster than AMC could get the filing about its unregistered sale of equity securities out...\nExtreme volatility and risks...\nAMC's valuation has become even more ludicrous on Tuesday than it already was before. The movie theater chain, which was close to bankruptcy just a few months ago, now trades at a P-S ratio of 3.\nCinemark Holdings (CNK), a theater rival which may itself be overvalued, trades at a P-S ratio of 1.0.\nData by YCharts\nThe risk here is immeasurable because neither the price action nor the valuation makes any sense for AMC.\nAMC's price should have gone down yesterday, not up because a capital raise is dilutive... but nothing makes sense anymore when it comes to AMC.\nAMC is trading independently of its business numbers and growth prospects and the risk of losing everything in this \"investment\" is extremely high.\nClosing thoughts\nA hedge fund just had a big victory and nobody seems to notice or care.\nYou literally had a hedge fund flipping its stake in AMC to the Reddit army at a massively overpriced valuation and explicitly calling AMC \"overvalued.\" It can't get any more brazen than this. Please be careful.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118070562,"gmtCreate":1622710057556,"gmtModify":1634098909591,"author":{"id":"3585717311854083","authorId":"3585717311854083","name":"cruzer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585717311854083","authorIdStr":"3585717311854083"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118070562","repostId":"1105752559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
