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2021-09-10

Ok

Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值上涨潜力巨大</blockquote>

2021-08-11

Like

The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减仓中概股的动作</blockquote>

2021-08-27

Oh

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2021-08-14

Good

Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在十月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Like please

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2021-11-27

Woi

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2021-11-18

Woi

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2021-06-18

Like and comment? 🙏🏼

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-10-22

Apple M1 FTW!

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2021-08-19

Ok

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11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156446659","media":"Business Insider","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Frid","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett has grown Berkshire Hathaway's Apple stake to 50% of its entire equity portfolio and nearly a quarter of its $649 billion market cap<blockquote>Warren Buffett已将Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果股份增至其全部股票投资组合的50%，占其6490亿美元市值的近四分之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Business Insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 11:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b>Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.</b></li>  <li><b>That makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.</b></li>  <li><b>Warren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348b5dc216a2be5e154d22e356336b9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周五，Berkshire Hathaway持有的苹果8.87亿股股票价值增至1,590亿美元。</b></li><li><b>这使得这些股份价值占伯克希尔整个股票投资组合的一半，占其6490亿美元市值的近25%。</b></li><li><b>Warren Buffett于2016年开始建立Berkshire在苹果的头寸，并一直持续到2018年年中。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and&nbsp;Berkshire Hathaway's&nbsp;stake in&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;is no better example of that investment practice.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特以集中投资创造世代财富而闻名，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在苹果的股份就是这种投资实践的最好例子。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its&nbsp;original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.</p><p><blockquote>周五，伯克希尔持有这家iPhone制造商的8.871亿股股票价值飙升至创纪录的1,590亿美元，较其原始成本基础约360亿美元增长了342%。根据伯克希尔第三季度13F文件的数据，这意味着苹果目前的价值超过了伯克希尔2930亿美元股票投资组合的一半。</blockquote></p><p> And assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>假设伯克希尔哈撒韦公司自9月30日以来没有削减其在苹果的头寸，那么这些股权目前约占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司6490亿美元市值的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> What also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take&nbsp;decades to compound&nbsp;like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特对苹果的专注也值得注意，因为它并不像巴菲特管理的大多数成功投资那样需要几十年的时间才能实现复利。相反，从Berkshire开始增持苹果股份到现在才五年。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has&nbsp;trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple&nbsp;by about 12% since initially building the stake.</p><p><blockquote>该集团于2016年首次购买了苹果股票，并一直购买到2018年中期，在对2020年4比1的股票分割进行调整后，该持仓量突破10亿股。自最初增持苹果股份以来，巴菲特已将其持有的股份削减了约12%。</blockquote></p><p> Barring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to&nbsp;an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.</p><p><blockquote>根据Bespoke的分析，除非自最近一次13F备案以来发生任何变化，否则Berkshire的股票投资组合本季度迄今将上涨13.9%。这一涨幅很大程度上是由苹果本季度迄今超过20%的涨幅推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than&nbsp;$1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，苹果股价上涨了31%，而Berkshire Hathaway的回报率为26%。周一，苹果股价距离触及3万亿美元估值不到1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's three largest positions after Apple are&nbsp;Bank of America,American Express, and&nbsp;Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.</p><p><blockquote>继苹果之后，伯克希尔最大的三个持仓是美国银行、美国运通和可口可乐，它们合计占股票投资组合价值的30%。伯克希尔仍坐拥约1500亿美元现金尚未投入使用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12\">Business Insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-apple-stake-half-berkshire-hathaway-equity-portfolio-concentration-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156446659","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings of 887 million shares swelled to a value of $159 billion on Friday.\nThat makes the stake worth half of Berkshire's entire equity portfolio, and almost 25% of its $649 billion market capitalization.\nWarren Buffett started to build Berkshire's position in Apple in 2016 and added to it up until mid-2018.\n\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nWarren Buffett is known for concentrating his investments to build generational wealth, and Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple is no better example of that investment practice.\nBerkshire's 887.1 million shares in the iPhone maker swelled to a record value of $159 billion on Friday, a 342% increase from its original cost basis of about $36 billion.That means Apple is now worth more than half of Berkshire's $293 billion equity portfolio, based on data from its third-quarter 13F filing.\nAnd assuming Berkshire hasn't trimmed its Apple position since September 30, the equity stake now represents about a quarter of Berkshire Hathaway's $649 billion market capitalization.\nWhat also makes Buffett's concentration in Apple notable is that it didn't take decades to compound like most successful investments managed by Buffett. Instead, it's only been five years since Berkshire began to build its stake in Apple.\nThe conglomerate first purchased Apple shares in 2016 and continued buying them until mid-2018, when the position topped 1 billion shares after adjusting for a 4-for-1 stock split in 2020. Buffett has trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple by about 12% since initially building the stake.\nBarring any changes since the most recent 13F filing, Berkshire's stock portfolio would be up 13.9% quarter-to-date, according to an analysis by Bespoke.Much of that gain has been driven by Apple's quarter-to-date gain of more than 20%.\nYear-to-date, Apple is up 31%, compared to Berkshire Hathaway's return of 26%. Apple's stock price was less than $1.00 away from hitting a $3 trillion valuation on Monday.\nBerkshire's three largest positions after Apple are Bank of America,American Express, and Coca-Cola, which make up a combined 30% of the equity portfolio's value. And Berkshire is still sitting on about $150 billion in cash that it has yet to put to work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607034674,"gmtCreate":1639455519141,"gmtModify":1639455519330,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607034674","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604194059,"gmtCreate":1639357279852,"gmtModify":1639357279852,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604194059","repostId":"1171271872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171271872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639348466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171271872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SCS":"Steelcase Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DRI":"达登饭店","FDX":"联邦快递","ADBE":"Adobe","JILL":"J.Jill Inc.","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","ACN":"埃森哲","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CPB":"金宝汤","HEI":"海科航空","PHX":"潘汉德尔油气"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"HEI":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"PHX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ACN":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"SCS":0.9,"JILL":0.9,"DRI":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"LEN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AVYA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605539318,"gmtCreate":1639188109254,"gmtModify":1639188126580,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605539318","repostId":"2190275356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606226847,"gmtCreate":1638887629502,"gmtModify":1638887629673,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606226847","repostId":"1197257596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608158835,"gmtCreate":1638669800860,"gmtModify":1638669820131,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608158835","repostId":"2188853578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601673952,"gmtCreate":1638528058881,"gmtModify":1638528059026,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601673952","repostId":"2188540330","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2188540330","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1638524158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188540330?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 17:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For December 3, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月3日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188540330","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\tWall Street expects  Big Lots, Inc.  (NYSE: BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading.\n","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects&nbsp;<b>Big Lots, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li>  <li><b>DiDi Global Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:DIDI) said that its board of directors had authorized the company to initiate procedures to delist the company’s shares from the New York Stock Exchange. The company, however, announced plans to pursue a listing of its class A ordinary shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. DiDi Global shares jumped 9.5% to $8.54 in premarket trading&nbsp;Friday.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Hibbett, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:HIBB) to have earned $1.57 per share on revenue of $360.63 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Hibbett shares rose 0.3% to $72.35 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Tesla Inc</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares worth around $1.01 billion in order to fulfill his tax obligations, as per filings made with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission Thursday. Musk also exercised options to purchase 2.1 million shares of the automaker at $6.24, as per one of the filings. In late November, the company’s CEO had sold $1 billion worth of Tesla shares. Tesla shares rose 0.3% to $1,088 in premarket tradingFriday.</li>  <li><b>Ulta Beauty, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:ULTA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter and raised its FY21 forecast. Ulta Beauty shares climbed 5.2% to $403.50 in the after-hours trading Thursday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>大地段公司。</b>(NYSE：BIG)开盘前公布季度亏损为每股0.16美元，营收为13.2亿美元。周四盘后交易中，Big Lots股价下跌5%，至41.45美元。</li><li><b>滴滴全球公司。</b>（NYSE：DIDI）表示，其董事会已授权公司启动程序，将公司股票从纽交所退市。然而，该公司宣布计划寻求其A类普通股在香港联交所主板上市。周五盘前交易中，滴滴全球股价上涨9.5%，至8.54美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>希贝特公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：HIBB）最近一个季度的营收为3.6063亿美元，每股收益为1.57美元。该公司将在开市前发布财报。周四盘后交易中，Hibbett股价上涨0.3%，至72.35美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）根据周四向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，Elon Musk又出售了934,091股股票，价值约10.1亿美元，以履行其纳税义务。根据其中一份文件，马斯克还行使了期权，以6.24美元的价格购买了该汽车制造商210万股股票。11月下旬，该公司首席执行官出售了价值10亿美元的特斯拉股票。周五盘前交易中，特斯拉股价上涨0.3%，至1,088美元。</li><li><b>Ulta美容公司。</b>（纳斯达克：ULTA）公布第三季度业绩好于预期，并上调了2021财年预期。Ulta Beauty股价在周四盘后交易中上涨5.2%，至403.50美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For December 3, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月3日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For December 3, 2021<blockquote>2021年12月3日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 17:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects&nbsp;<b>Big Lots, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li>  <li><b>DiDi Global Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:DIDI) said that its board of directors had authorized the company to initiate procedures to delist the company’s shares from the New York Stock Exchange. The company, however, announced plans to pursue a listing of its class A ordinary shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. DiDi Global shares jumped 9.5% to $8.54 in premarket trading&nbsp;Friday.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting&nbsp;<b>Hibbett, Inc.</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:HIBB) to have earned $1.57 per share on revenue of $360.63 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Hibbett shares rose 0.3% to $72.35 in after-hours trading&nbsp;Thursday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Tesla Inc</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares worth around $1.01 billion in order to fulfill his tax obligations, as per filings made with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission Thursday. Musk also exercised options to purchase 2.1 million shares of the automaker at $6.24, as per one of the filings. In late November, the company’s CEO had sold $1 billion worth of Tesla shares. Tesla shares rose 0.3% to $1,088 in premarket tradingFriday.</li>  <li><b>Ulta Beauty, Inc.</b> (NASDAQ:ULTA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter and raised its FY21 forecast. Ulta Beauty shares climbed 5.2% to $403.50 in the after-hours trading Thursday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>大地段公司。</b>(NYSE：BIG)开盘前公布季度亏损为每股0.16美元，营收为13.2亿美元。周四盘后交易中，Big Lots股价下跌5%，至41.45美元。</li><li><b>滴滴全球公司。</b>（NYSE：DIDI）表示，其董事会已授权公司启动程序，将公司股票从纽交所退市。然而，该公司宣布计划寻求其A类普通股在香港联交所主板上市。周五盘前交易中，滴滴全球股价上涨9.5%，至8.54美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>希贝特公司。</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：HIBB）最近一个季度的营收为3.6063亿美元，每股收益为1.57美元。该公司将在开市前发布财报。周四盘后交易中，Hibbett股价上涨0.3%，至72.35美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）根据周四向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，Elon Musk又出售了934,091股股票，价值约10.1亿美元，以履行其纳税义务。根据其中一份文件，马斯克还行使了期权，以6.24美元的价格购买了该汽车制造商210万股股票。11月下旬，该公司首席执行官出售了价值10亿美元的特斯拉股票。周五盘前交易中，特斯拉股价上涨0.3%，至1,088美元。</li><li><b>Ulta美容公司。</b>（纳斯达克：ULTA）公布第三季度业绩好于预期，并上调了2021财年预期。Ulta Beauty股价在周四盘后交易中上涨5.2%，至403.50美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4022":"陆运","BK4200":"专卖店","BK4539":"次新股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4114":"综合货品商店","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","CEO":"中海油","HIBB":"希贝特体育","ULTA":"Ulta美容"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188540330","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE:BIG) to report a quarterly loss at $0.16 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion before the opening bell. Big Lots shares fell 5% to $41.45 in after-hours trading Thursday.\nDiDi Global Inc. (NYSE:DIDI) said that its board of directors had authorized the company to initiate procedures to delist the company’s shares from the New York Stock Exchange. The company, however, announced plans to pursue a listing of its class A ordinary shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. DiDi Global shares jumped 9.5% to $8.54 in premarket trading Friday.\nAnalysts are expecting Hibbett, Inc. (NASDAQ:HIBB) to have earned $1.57 per share on revenue of $360.63 million for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Hibbett shares rose 0.3% to $72.35 in after-hours trading Thursday.\n\n\nTesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares worth around $1.01 billion in order to fulfill his tax obligations, as per filings made with the U.S. Securities And Exchange Commission Thursday. Musk also exercised options to purchase 2.1 million shares of the automaker at $6.24, as per one of the filings. In late November, the company’s CEO had sold $1 billion worth of Tesla shares. Tesla shares rose 0.3% to $1,088 in premarket tradingFriday.\nUlta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) reported better-than-expected results for its third quarter and raised its FY21 forecast. Ulta Beauty shares climbed 5.2% to $403.50 in the after-hours trading Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CEO":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"ULTA":0.9,"HIBB":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BIG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600187388,"gmtCreate":1638092810909,"gmtModify":1638092811006,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600187388","repostId":"2186432895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877759198,"gmtCreate":1637988560258,"gmtModify":1637988560392,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877759198","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875504855,"gmtCreate":1637665268036,"gmtModify":1637665268167,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875504855","repostId":"1114486159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872188675,"gmtCreate":1637458590595,"gmtModify":1637458590688,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872188675","repostId":"1198923174","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872057504,"gmtCreate":1637379899625,"gmtModify":1637379900085,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872057504","repostId":"2184842262","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878413636,"gmtCreate":1637219414306,"gmtModify":1637219414440,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878413636","repostId":"2184510828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873252003,"gmtCreate":1636951593895,"gmtModify":1636951594026,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873252003","repostId":"2183536049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873120609,"gmtCreate":1636889642964,"gmtModify":1636889643106,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873120609","repostId":"1130613433","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130613433","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636854571,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130613433?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 09:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week<blockquote>下周值得关注的7份财报</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130613433","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant\nSource: Shutterstock\nReta","content":"<p><div> A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant Source: Shutterstock Retailers and big box chains take center stage next week as the earnings train rolls on. And these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着股价保持强劲，众多零售商公布了财报资料来源：Shutterstock随着财报列车的继续，零售商和大型连锁店将成为下周的中心舞台。还有这些...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week<blockquote>下周值得关注的7份财报</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week<blockquote>下周值得关注的7份财报</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-14 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant Source: Shutterstock Retailers and big box chains take center stage next week as the earnings train rolls on. And these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着股价保持强劲，众多零售商公布了财报资料来源：Shutterstock随着财报列车的继续，零售商和大型连锁店将成为下周的中心舞台。还有这些...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LOW":"劳氏","LZB":"La-Z-Boy家具","M":"梅西百货","TGT":"塔吉特","HD":"家得宝","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130613433","content_text":"A parade of retailers report earnings as their share prices remain buoyant\nSource: Shutterstock\nRetailers and big box chains take center stage next week as the earnings train rolls on. And these earnings come as we enter the pivotal holiday sales season, which can make or break retailers large and small.\nAnalysts on Wall Street will be carefully parsing next week’s results to gain insights into how the economic reopening is holding up, and, in particular, how consumer spending performed heading into the fourth and final quarter of the year.\nIt has been a good run for stocks of retailers in recent weeks, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF(NYSEARCA:XRT) up 15% over the past month. Sentiment regarding retailers has turned bullish as we approach the lucrative holiday sales period and the twin events of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.\nStrong earnings reports from key retail companies are likely to keep stocks across the sector buoyant as we near year-end.Here are seven retail stocks reporting earnings the week of Nov. 15.\n\nWalmart(NYSE:WMT)\nHome Depot(NYSE:HD)\nLa-Z-Boy(NYSE:LZB)\nLowe’s(NYSE:LOW)\nTarget(NYSE:TGT)\nMacy’s(NYSE:M)\nFoot Locker(NYSE:FL)\n\nWalmart (WMT)\nFirst out of the gate next week is Walmart, the world’s biggest retailer with more than 10,000 stores, 2.3 million employees and annual revenues of nearly $550 billion.\nThe retail colossus survived the pandemic largely by ramping up its online sales strategy, and its brick-and-mortar stores have been recovering this year as the economy reopens.\nHowever, despite its efforts and success, Walmart’s stock has underperformed, rising only 1% year-to-date at $148.50 a share. In the past 52 weeks, WMT stock has gained a slight 0.35%. The tepid growth has frustrated Walmart shareholders who have had to watch while rival retail stocks have risen more than 50% this year.\nA strong third-quarter report from Walmart could give the share price a much needed boost.Wall Street is looking for the company to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40 on revenues of $135.52 billion. Any beat to the upside will be well-received and could be the catalyst needed to finally move the needle on WMT stock.\nThe company has received several bullish analyst ratings recently, with Goldman Sachs(NYSE:GS) adding the stockto its “conviction buy” list in October. The median price target on the stock, among 19 analysts who cover Walmart, is $170, which is 15% higher than its current level.\nHome Depot (HD)\nAlso reporting Q3 results next week is home improvement retailer Home Depot. The Atlanta-headquartered company has seemingly had it both ways during the pandemic. The company performed well during Covid-19 lockdowns as people focused on fixing up their homes, and has continued to perform well this year as the economic recovery accelerated.\nYear-to-date, HD stock is up nearly 40% at $367.55 per share. And despite the bull run, Home Depot’s share price has continued to trend upward, rising nearly 10% since the start of October. The company is no doubt looking to finish the year strong and keep the momentum in its stock going with its third-quarter results.\nAnalysts are forecasting that Home Depot will report EPS of $3.36 on revenues of $34.69 billion for Q3. This would be after the company reported that its sales in this year’s second quarter increased 8.1% from a year ago to $41 billion, the first time in the company’s history that its quarterly sales surpassed $40 billion.\nWith home prices continuing to rise in the U.S.,up 20% in August this year from the same month of 2020 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, homeowners seem content to continue taking equity out of their domicile and spending it to improve its value, which benefits Home Depot.\nLa-Z-Boy (LZB)\nFurniture manufacturer La-Z-Boy, which is known for its signature brand of upholstered recliners, reports earnings next week as it shares finally breakout after being down for most of this year.\nOver the last month, LZB stock has gained 12% and now trades at $11.43 a share. However, even with that strong performance, the stock remains down 7% on the year. Strong third-quarter results heading into the holidays could accelerate the growth of La-Z-Boy’s stock.\nAnalysts expect the company to announce Q3 EPS of 73 cents on revenues of $540 million.  La-Z-Boy has outperformed Wall Street’s earnings expectations in the four previous quarters. Overall, La-Z-Boy has grown its revenues by 9.5% and grown its net income by 32.3% since 2018. The furniture retailer is also praised for having a clean balance sheet with $391.21 million in cash on hand and $362.64 million in total debt.\nAnalysts will be watching La-Z-Boy to see if global supply constraints have materially impacted its business or will do so going forward.\nLowe’s (LOW)\nLowe’s, the home improvement retailer and main rival of Home Depot, also reports next week. And, as with Home Depot, Lowe’s stock has been a strong outperformer this year, up a total of 45% to $232.76 a share.\nThe rally in LOW stock has gathered steam in recent weeks, with the share price climbing 11% over the last month. The stellar stock performance has been propelled by exceptional sales that reached a record $27.6 billion in Lowe’s previous quarterly report.\nEqually impressive is the fact that Lowe’s says it now generates 25% of its revenues from professionals such as contractors, electricians and plumbers. It is those professionals that are highly coveted by both Lowe’s and Home Depot as consistent repeat customers.\nIn an effort to attract even more professional customers and keep its sales in record territory, Lowe’s has beendesigning more intuitive store layouts based on helping contractors and other trades find everything they need for a specific job without having to search the entire store.\nAdditionally, the company has moved its website “Lowe’s for Pros” to the cloud, which enabled the company to add enhanced features, faster updates, and provide more personalized offers to those highly sought after professionals.Analysts have forecast that Lowe’s will announce EPS of $2.31 on revenues of $21.77 billion for its most recent quarter.\nTarget (TGT)\nTarget has been yet another top performer among retail stocks, up 44% so far in 2021 and up 60% in the last 52-weeks. At $256.26. TGT stock has run uninterrupted all year.\nHowever, some analysts are raising concerns that the rally could be running out of steam. When Goldman Sachs added Walmart to its conviction list in October, the investment bank removed Target, stating that is expects slower growth from the Minneapolis-based company next year that is more inline with its historic performance. Target will be looking to prove the naysayers wrong when it announces its Q3 results.\nMuch of Target’s turnaround over the past few years is attributed to CEOBrian Cornell, who took over in 2014 as the company was dealing with a data breach that exposed the debit and credit card information of 40 million customers and its expansion into Canada was failing and dragging on the bottom line.\nCornell made the decision to exit Canada and has since invested heavily in e-commerce and brand name apparel. The moves proved to be the right ones judging by TGT stock, which is up 236% over the past five years. For next week’s earnings,Wall Street is anticipating EPS of $2.81 on revenues of $24.59 billion.\nMacy’s (M)\nMacy’s has not only been a top-performing retail stock, it has been one of the best performing of all stocks this year. Since January, Macy’s share price has increased 175% to its current level of $30.89. In the last month alone, M stock has gained 36%. The company has left its competitors in the dust as its shares continue rising higher and higher.\nMacy’s now has a market capitalization approaching $10 billion. The incredible growth is due to a strong e-commerce strategy that has propelled shares higher. Although some analysts have claimed that Macy’s share price appreciation is due to it being treated as a meme stock by retail investors.\nFounded in 1858, Macy’s today operates more than nearly 800 stores under the Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury brands. The company has recently been targeted by activist group Jana Partners, which is trying to force Macy’s to spin-off its successful and lucrative e-commerce business, which Jana Partners has estimated could be worth $15 billion.\nThe reaction to Jana Partners efforts has been largely negative and it looks as though Macy’s will control its own destiny when it comes to its e-commerce platform. For its latest earnings, analysts forecast Macy’s will report EPS of $0.29 on revenues of $5.18 billion.\nFoot Locker (FL)\nNew York-based footwear and apparel retailer Foot Locker’s latest earnings report comes as its stock has risen 15% in the last month, bringing year-to-date gains to 37%. At $53.86 a share, FL stock is now up nearly 50% in the past 52-weeks.\nThe company just announced that it is launching a brand new apparel line called “LCKR” that is focused on casual wear such as pullover hoodies and sweatpants. Foot Locker enlisted popular rapper Gunna to be the face of its newest brand, which officially launched Oct. 20 and should help boost sales heading into the New Year.\nThe company also recently completed a $360 million acquisition of Japanese retailer Atmos, which sells premium sneakers and apparel at 49 stores around the world, including 39 in Japan. The deal helps to expand Foot Locker globally as the company seeks growth opportunities outside its American home market.\nAnalysts have praised Foot Locker for its recent moves aimed at expanding its brand and operations. When it announces earnings next week,Wall Street is looking for the company to report EPS of $1.35 and revenues of $2.12 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LZB":0.9,"FL":0.9,"HD":0.9,"LOW":0.9,"M":0.9,"TGT":0.9,"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873089285,"gmtCreate":1636797744915,"gmtModify":1636797745026,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi&nbsp;","listText":"Woi&nbsp;","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873089285","repostId":"1102251183","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102251183","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636772424,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102251183?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102251183","media":"Barrons","summary":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Mo","content":"<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一早上，辉瑞公司首席科学官米凯尔·多尔斯滕(Mikael Dolsten)接到电话时，听起来很头晕。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其Covid-19抗病毒药物将高危成年人的住院风险降低了89%。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说：“你能够打破这种类型的世界纪录，同时偶然获得大满贯，这不可能只是一件随机的事情。”他在试图说明辉瑞的双重胜利：在短短10个月内开发出了一种效果惊人的Covid-19疫苗，一年后又开发出了一种同样令人惊叹的Covid-19抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉（Albert Bourla）要求投资者对多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务进行豪赌。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都更聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla已经摆脱了辉瑞的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者健康产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司的生死存亡都取决于Dolsten的科学实力。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在2019年11月的一篇封面报道中，<i>巴伦周刊</i>认为布尔拉和多尔斯滕可以成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞的理由<i>巴伦周刊</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从大流行中获利会带来新的风险。在全球超过70亿剂疫苗中，低收入国家仅占不到1%。如果辉瑞抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞股价飙升10.9%，创下至少20年来的最佳单日表现。尽管如此，由于该股目前易手价格约为50美元，投资者继续低估该公司的价值。投资者对辉瑞的定价是明年预期收益的12倍，低于强生(JNJ)和礼来(LLY)等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去对少数年收入数十亿美元的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧是合理的，但辉瑞的科学政变应该让投资者相信该公司的科学能够安全地越过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞科学实力的最佳例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>虽然辉瑞的新冠肺炎疫苗来自德国生物技术公司BioNTech(BNTX)的实验室，但新的新冠肺炎抗病毒药物是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞位于美国东北部实验室的科学家“梦之队”研制出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将其工作分为与BioNTech在疫苗上的合作和对Covid-19药丸的探索。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的“巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目规模要小得多——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源进行运营。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，拥有相当适中的资源，”多尔斯滕说。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括药物设计主管夏洛特·阿勒顿。科学家们从辉瑞公司多年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“（辉瑞的）制药研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂已经静脉内施用，并且当口服递送时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应，”多尔斯滕说。科学家们创造了600种化合物来确定正确的药物，这个过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“在这里，四年变成了四个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药物。该公司目前正在进行该药物的多项2/3期试验，包括一项针对高风险患者，一项针对非高风险患者，以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防试验。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司(MRK)的新冠治疗药物有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Louise Chen表示：“这无疑有助于证明辉瑞的制药研发比人们想象的要好。”她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈表示，在Covid-19疫苗和药丸销售的持久性更加明确以及其余产品得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为没有一个事件会引发该股下一个级别的重新评级，”她说。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得对辉瑞的押注成为一项长期投资。与此同时，Moderna(MRNA)最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不平等而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对Moderna越来越失望，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便能够以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司“挺身而出”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna股价在过去三个月下跌了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞面临着侵蚀大约一年前推出Covid-19疫苗时赢得的巨大商誉的风险。本月早些时候，辉瑞首席执行官布尔拉指责低收入国家疫苗分配不公平，告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>没有下订单是他们的错。辉瑞公司已以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，捐赠给贫穷国家，并表示到明年年底将向中低收入国家提供总计至少20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>在抗病毒药物方面，辉瑞仅表示将为较贫穷国家提供分级定价，与其疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫穷国家提供自己的Covid-19药丸的计划形成鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，允许其药丸在全球范围内获得许可，无需向默克公司支付特许权使用费。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕表示，辉瑞正在考虑根据与默克类似的机制许可其药物。“我们将考虑这些选择，”他说。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保参与其中的人都能获得这样做的建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的一步来得太快了。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家外抗议，呼吁辉瑞分享其疫苗制造技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞公司相对受到华盛顿的青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学知识继续推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Shows Its R&D Is Strong. It’s a Good Sign for the Stock.<blockquote>辉瑞显示其研发实力雄厚。这对该股来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer’s&nbsp;chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.</p><p><blockquote>周一早上，辉瑞公司首席科学官米凯尔·多尔斯滕(Mikael Dolsten)接到电话时，听起来很头晕。就在几天前，他的公司宣布其Covid-19抗病毒药物将高危成年人的住院风险降低了89%。</blockquote></p><p> “It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕说：“你能够打破这种类型的世界纪录，同时偶然获得大满贯，这不可能只是一件随机的事情。”他在试图说明辉瑞的双重胜利：在短短10个月内开发出了一种效果惊人的Covid-19疫苗，一年后又开发出了一种同样令人惊叹的Covid-19抗病毒药物。</blockquote></p><p> Two years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.</p><p><blockquote>两年前，辉瑞（股票代码：PFE）首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉（Albert Bourla）要求投资者对多尔斯滕十多年来重建的研发业务进行豪赌。这个赌注看起来比以往任何时候都更聪明。</blockquote></p><p> Bourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.</p><p><blockquote>Bourla已经摆脱了辉瑞的非专利药物部门及其最后的消费者健康产品，留下了一家纯粹的生物制药公司，该公司的生死存亡都取决于Dolsten的科学实力。</blockquote></p><p> In a cover story in November 2019, <i>Barron’s</i> argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>在2019年11月的一篇封面报道中，<i>巴伦周刊</i>认为布尔拉和多尔斯滕可以成功。</blockquote></p><p> The new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that <i>Barron’s</i> made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.</p><p><blockquote>新的抗病毒数据再次证实了辉瑞的理由<i>巴伦周刊</i>两年前做的。然而，随着对全球疫苗分配不平等的批评越来越多，继续从大流行中获利会带来新的风险。在全球超过70亿剂疫苗中，低收入国家仅占不到1%。如果辉瑞抗病毒药物的分销继续有利于富裕国家，该公司的股票最终可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;(JNJ) and&nbsp;Eli Lilly&nbsp;(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>数据公布当天，辉瑞股价飙升10.9%，创下至少20年来的最佳单日表现。尽管如此，由于该股目前易手价格约为50美元，投资者继续低估该公司的价值。投资者对辉瑞的定价是明年预期收益的12倍，低于强生(JNJ)和礼来(LLY)等同行。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的折扣可归因于对该制药商在本世纪末面临专利悬崖的担忧。该公司将失去对少数年收入数十亿美元的药物的独家经营权。</blockquote></p><p> The worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这些担忧是合理的，但辉瑞的科学政变应该让投资者相信该公司的科学能够安全地越过悬崖。市场可能需要时间才能赶上，但对于长期投资者来说，这是一个充满希望的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒药物的成功是辉瑞科学实力的最佳例证。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech&nbsp;BioNTech&nbsp;(BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.</p><p><blockquote>虽然辉瑞的新冠肺炎疫苗来自德国生物技术公司BioNTech(BNTX)的实验室，但新的新冠肺炎抗病毒药物是由多尔斯滕所说的辉瑞位于美国东北部实验室的科学家“梦之队”研制出来的。</blockquote></p><p> In the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.</p><p><blockquote>在大流行的早期，辉瑞公司将其工作分为与BioNTech在疫苗上的合作和对Covid-19药丸的探索。疫苗工作规模巨大；多尔斯滕称之为横跨大西洋的“巨型团队”。</blockquote></p><p> The antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.</p><p><blockquote>抗病毒项目规模要小得多——一组辉瑞专家利用疫苗推广剩余的资源进行运营。</blockquote></p><p> “The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.</p><p><blockquote>“小分子更像是一个灵活、专注于激光的高端团队，拥有相当适中的资源，”多尔斯滕说。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕召集了辉瑞公司一些最有经验的科学家参与抗病毒项目，其中包括药物设计主管夏洛特·阿勒顿。科学家们从辉瑞公司多年前在一种叫做蛋白酶抑制剂的抗病毒药物上所做的工作开始。</blockquote></p><p> “[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“（辉瑞的）制药研发比人们想象的要好。”</blockquote></p><p> The protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.</p><p><blockquote>然而，辉瑞文库中的蛋白酶抑制剂已经静脉内施用，并且当口服递送时效果不佳。该团队必须弄清楚如何使药物适应口服给药，这是一项艰巨的任务。</blockquote></p><p> “They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们必须真正创造很多新的化学反应，”多尔斯滕说。科学家们创造了600种化合物来确定正确的药物，这个过程通常可能需要数年时间，但他们在几个月内就完成了。“在这里，四年变成了四个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from&nbsp;Merck&nbsp;(MRK).</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞公司于三月份开始在人体中测试这种药物。该公司目前正在进行该药物的多项2/3期试验，包括一项针对高风险患者，一项针对非高风险患者，以及一项针对接触过病毒但尚未患病的患者的预防试验。在第一次读数中，该药物看起来比默克公司(MRK)的新冠治疗药物有效得多。</blockquote></p><p> “It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&amp;D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Louise Chen表示：“这无疑有助于证明辉瑞的制药研发比人们想象的要好。”她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为61美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Chen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.</p><p><blockquote>陈表示，在Covid-19疫苗和药丸销售的持久性更加明确以及其余产品得到证实之前，她预计投资者不会接受她的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为没有一个事件会引发该股下一个级别的重新评级，”她说。“在这些事情发生之前，我认为不一定会发生。”</blockquote></p><p> That makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;(MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>这使得对辉瑞的押注成为一项长期投资。与此同时，Moderna(MRNA)最近几周的经历凸显了疫苗制造商因疫苗分配不平等而受到审查的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Biden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府官员对Moderna越来越失望，呼吁该公司提高产量，以便能够以非营利价格向低收入国家提供更多剂量，一位高级官员呼吁该公司“挺身而出”。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna股价在过去三个月下跌了40%以上。</blockquote></p><p> As the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling <i>Barron’s</i> that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着疫情的持续，辉瑞面临着侵蚀大约一年前推出Covid-19疫苗时赢得的巨大商誉的风险。本月早些时候，辉瑞首席执行官布尔拉指责低收入国家疫苗分配不公平，告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>没有下订单是他们的错。辉瑞公司已以非营利价格向美国出售了10亿剂疫苗，捐赠给贫穷国家，并表示到明年年底将向中低收入国家提供总计至少20亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>在抗病毒药物方面，辉瑞仅表示将为较贫穷国家提供分级定价，与其疫苗采取的方法相同。</blockquote></p><p> That contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.</p><p><blockquote>这与默克公司向贫穷国家提供自己的Covid-19药丸的计划形成鲜明对比。默克公司已与一个联合国支持的组织签署了一项协议，允许其药丸在全球范围内获得许可，无需向默克公司支付特许权使用费。</blockquote></p><p> Dolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>多尔斯滕表示，辉瑞正在考虑根据与默克类似的机制许可其药物。“我们将考虑这些选择，”他说。“我们绝不是说我们会做一些不同的事情。我们只是想确保参与其中的人都能获得这样做的建议和技能。”</blockquote></p><p> Such a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.</p><p><blockquote>这样的一步来得太快了。上月底，活动人士在布尔拉家外抗议，呼吁辉瑞分享其疫苗制造技术，并在富裕国家之前完成低收入国家的订单。</blockquote></p><p> An aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>分享其抗病毒药物的积极计划将有助于避免此类批评，使辉瑞公司相对受到华盛顿的青睐，并使其令人印象深刻的科学知识继续推动股价走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-pfizer-stock-covid-19-51636674652?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102251183","content_text":"Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, Mikael Dolsten, sounded giddy when reached via telephone early Monday morning. It was just days after his company knocked the socks off the market with the news that its Covid-19 antiviral had cut the risk of hospitalization by 89% in high-risk adults.\n“It can’t be just a random thing, that you’re able to beat this type of world record and get a grand slam at the same time by chance,” Dolsten said, scrambling sports metaphors as he sought to illustrate the magnitude of Pfizer’s twin wins: the development of a stunningly effective Covid-19 vaccine in just 10 months, followed a year later by the development of a similarly stunning Covid-19 antiviral.\nTwo years ago, Pfizer (ticker: PFE) CEO Albert Bourla asked investors to take a big gamble on the research-and-development operation that Dolsten has rebuilt over the course of more than a decade. That bet is looking smarter than ever.\nBourla has gotten rid of Pfizer’s off-patent drugs division and the last of its consumer health products, leaving behind a pure-play biopharma company that will live or die on the strength of Dolsten’s science.\nIn a cover story in November 2019, Barron’s argued that Bourla and Dolsten could pull it off.\nThe new antiviral data reaffirms the case for Pfizer that Barron’s made two years ago. Continuing to profit off the pandemic, however, brings new risks, as criticism grows over the global inequity in vaccine distribution. Low-income nations account for less than 1% of the more than seven billion doses administered worldwide. If distribution of Pfizer’s antiviral continues to favor wealthy nations, the company’s stock could ultimately suffer.\nPfizer’s shares surged 10.9% the day the data came out, their best daily showing in at least 20 years. Still, with the stock now changing hands at around $50, investors continue to undervalue the company. Investors are pricing Pfizer at 12 times next year’s expected earnings, cheaper than peers like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Eli Lilly (LLY).\nThe Pfizer discount can be attributed to concerns over the patent cliff the drugmaker faces at the end of the decade. The company stands to lose exclusivity over a handful of drugs that bring in billions in annual revenue.\nThe worries are legitimate, but Pfizer’s scientific coup should give investors confidence that the company’s science can carry it safely over that cliff. It may take time for the market to catch up, but for long-term investors, it’s a promising opportunity.\nThe success of the antiviral is the best illustration yet of Pfizer’s scientific prowess.\nWhile Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine came out of the labs of the German biotech BioNTech (BNTX), the new Covid-19 antiviral was whipped up by what Dolsten called a “dream team” of scientists at Pfizer’s own labs across the Northeast U.S.\nIn the earliest days of the pandemic, Pfizer split its efforts between its collaboration with BioNTech on the vaccine and its quest for a Covid-19 pill. The vaccine effort operated on a huge scale; Dolsten called it a “mega team” that spanned the Atlantic.\nThe antiviral project was a much smaller operation—a group of Pfizer experts operating with resources left over from the vaccine push.\n“The small molecule was more like a nimble, laser-focused, high-end team, with rather moderate resources,” Dolsten said.\nDolsten gathered some of Pfizer’s most experienced scientists to work on the antiviral project, including its head of medicine design, Charlotte Allerton. The scientists started with work Pfizer had done years ago on a type of antiviral called a protease inhibitor.\n“[Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought.”\nThe protease inhibitors in the Pfizer library, however, had been administered intravenously, and had not worked well when delivered orally. The team had to figure out how to adapt the drugs to oral administration, a substantial undertaking.\n“They had to really create a lot of new chemistry,” Dolsten said. The scientists created 600 compounds to nail down the right drug, a process that might normally take years, and which they accomplished in a matter of months. “Four years turned into four months here,” he said.\nPfizer started testing the pill in humans in March. It is now running a number of Phase 2/3 trials of the drug, including one for patients who are high risk, one for patients not high risk, and one as a prophylaxis for patients who have been exposed to the virus but aren’t yet sick. In the first readout, the drug looked substantially more effective than the Covid treatment pill from Merck (MRK).\n“It definitely helps prove the point that [Pfizer’s] pharmaceutical R&D is better than people had thought,” says Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, who has an Overweight rating and a $61 price target on the stock.\nChen says that she doesn’t expect investors to come around to her way of thinking until there is more clarity on the durability of Covid-19 vaccine and pill sales, and the rest of the pipeline gets proved out.\n“There is not one event that I think will trigger a re-rating of the stock at the next level,” she says. “Until those things play out, I don’t think that it necessarily will.”\nThat makes a bet on Pfizer a long-term play. In the meantime, the experience of Moderna (MRNA) in recent weeks is highlighting the potential for the vaccine makers to come under scrutiny over unequal distribution of vaccines.\nBiden administration officials have been increasingly frustrated with Moderna, calling on the company to ramp up production so it can offer more doses at not-for-profit prices to low-income countries, with one top official calling on the company to “step up.”\nModerna shares are down more than 40% over the past three months.\nAs the pandemic persists, Pfizer risks eroding the enormous goodwill it earned roughly a year ago when it introduced its Covid-19 vaccine. Earlier this month, Pfizer CEO Bourla blamed low-income countries for unfair vaccine distribution, telling Barron’s that it was their fault for not placing orders. Pfizer has sold a billion vaccine doses to the U.S. at a not-for-profit price to donate to poor countries, and says that a total of at least two billion doses will be delivered to low- and middle-income nations by the end of next year.\nWhen it comes to antivirals, Pfizer has said only that it will offer tiered pricing for poorer nations, the same approach it has taken with its vaccine.\nThat contrasts sharply with Merck’s plan to make its own Covid-19 pill available to poor countries. Merck has signed a deal with a United Nations-backed group that will allow its pill to be licensed globally, with no royalties paid to Merck.\nDolsten said that Pfizer is looking into licensing its pill under a similar mechanism as Merck’s. “We will look at those options,” he said. “By no means have we said we would do something different. We just want to make sure whoever will be involved gets the advice and skill to do this.”\nSuch a step couldn’t come soon enough. Late last month, activists protested outside Bourla’s home, calling on Pfizer to share its vaccine manufacturing technology and to fill orders from low-income countries ahead of those from wealthy countries.\nAn aggressive plan to share its antiviral would help stave off such criticism, keeping Pfizer in the relative good graces of Washington and allowing its impressive science to continue to drive the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845512646,"gmtCreate":1636350355049,"gmtModify":1636350356136,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845512646","repostId":"2181284457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842261921,"gmtCreate":1636183097372,"gmtModify":1636183242678,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi&nbsp;","listText":"Woi&nbsp;","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842261921","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848589111,"gmtCreate":1636012499424,"gmtModify":1636012499792,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848589111","repostId":"1115081189","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115081189","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636012051,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115081189?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 15:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Spies, lies and losses: Credit Suisse's scandals<blockquote>间谍、谎言和损失：瑞士信贷的丑闻</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115081189","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy clien","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy client base, the Swiss bank said on Thursday, as it regroups following a string of scandals.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-瑞士信贷周四表示，将削减其投资银行业务，专注于建立其富裕的客户群，该银行在一系列丑闻后进行重组。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, who joined in April from Britain's Lloyds Bank to help stop the rot, has said the scandals are the gravest he has seen.</p><p><blockquote>董事长安东尼奥·奥尔塔-奥索里奥(Antonio Horta-Osorio)四月份从英国劳埃德银行(Lloyds Bank)加入，以帮助制止腐败，他表示，这些丑闻是他见过的最严重的丑闻。</blockquote></p><p> Here are some details about the main crises to beset the bank in recent years:</p><p><blockquote>以下是近年来困扰该银行的主要危机的一些细节：</blockquote></p><p> TUNA BOND FRAUD</p><p><blockquote>我们有债券欺诈</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse pleaded guilty to defrauding investors over an $850 million loan to Mozambique meant to pay for a tuna fishing fleet and is paying U.S. and British regulators $475 million to settle the case under a deal announced in October.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷承认在向莫桑比克提供的8.5亿美元贷款中欺骗投资者，该贷款旨在支付一支金枪鱼渔船队的费用，并根据10月份宣布的一项协议，向美国和英国监管机构支付4.75亿美元以和解此案。</blockquote></p><p> About $200 million of the loan went in kickbacks to Credit Suisse bankers and Mozambican government officials. The bank was aware of a huge shortfall between the funds raised and the value of boats bought but failed to disclose this to investors when the loan was restructured in 2016, the regulators said.</p><p><blockquote>大约2亿美元的贷款以回扣的形式给了瑞士信贷的银行家和莫桑比克政府官员。监管机构表示，该银行意识到筹集的资金与购买的船只价值之间存在巨大缺口，但在2016年贷款重组时未能向投资者披露这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse also arranged a loan that was kept secret from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When Mozambique admitted to $1.4 billion in undisclosed loans the IMF pulled its support, sending the southern African country's economy into a tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷还安排了一笔对国际货币基金组织（IMF）保密的贷款。当莫桑比克承认有14亿美元未披露的贷款时，国际货币基金组织撤回了支持，使这个南部非洲国家的经济陷入混乱。</blockquote></p><p> ARCHEGOS DEFAULT</p><p><blockquote>ARCHEGOS默认值</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse lost $5.5 billion when U.S. family office Archegos Capital Management defaulted in March. The hedge fund's highly leveraged bets on certain technology stocks backfired and the value of its portfolio with Credit Suisse plummeted.</p><p><blockquote>当美国家族办公室Archegos Capital Management在3月份违约时，瑞士信贷损失了55亿美元。该对冲基金对某些科技股的高杠杆押注适得其反，其与瑞士信贷的投资组合价值暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> An independent report into the incident slammed the bank's conduct, saying its losses were the result of a fundamental failure of management and control at its investment bank, and its prime brokerage division in particular.</p><p><blockquote>一份关于该事件的独立报告猛烈抨击了该银行的行为，称其损失是其投资银行，特别是大宗经纪部门管理和控制根本失败的结果。</blockquote></p><p> The report said the bank was focused on maximising short-term profits and failed to rein in voracious risk-taking by Archegos, despite numerous warning signals, calling into question the competence of its risk personnel.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，该银行专注于短期利润最大化，尽管发出了许多警告信号，但未能遏制Archegos贪婪的冒险行为，这让人对其风险人员的能力产生了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> GREENSILL FUNDS COLLAPSE</p><p><blockquote>格林希尔基金倒闭</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was forced to freeze $10 billion of supply chain finance funds in March when British financier Greensill Capital collapsed after losing insurance cover for debt issued against its loans to companies.</p><p><blockquote>今年3月，英国金融家Greensill Capital因失去公司贷款债务保险而倒闭，瑞士信贷被迫冻结100亿美元的供应链金融资金。</blockquote></p><p> The Swiss bank had sold billions of dollars of Greensill's debt to investors, assuring them in marketing material that the high-yield notes were low risk because the underlying credit exposure was fully insured.</p><p><blockquote>这家瑞士银行已向投资者出售了数十亿美元的格林希尔债务，并在营销材料中向他们保证，高收益票据风险较低，因为基础信用风险已得到充分保险。</blockquote></p><p> A number of investors have sued the Swiss bank over the Greensill-linked funds. The bank said on Sept. 27 it had recovered and returned about $6.3 billion to investors but has warned it may struggle to recoup $2.3 billion of the total.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者已就格林希尔相关基金起诉这家瑞士银行。该银行9月27日表示，已收回并向投资者返还了约63亿美元，但警告称，可能难以收回其中的23亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> SPYING SCANDAL</p><p><blockquote>间谍丑闻</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam was forced to quit in March 2020 after an investigation found the bank hired private detectives to spy on its former head of wealth management Iqbal Kahn after he left for arch rival UBS.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席执行官蒂詹·蒂亚姆(Tidjane Thiam)于2020年3月被迫辞职，此前一项调查发现，在其前财富管理主管伊克巴尔·卡恩(Iqbal Kahn)前往主要竞争对手瑞银(UBS)后，该银行聘请了私家侦探对其进行SPDR标普500指数ETF。</blockquote></p><p> The bank repeatedly played down the episode as an isolated incident.</p><p><blockquote>该银行一再将这一事件淡化为孤立事件。</blockquote></p><p> In October, however, Switzerland's financial regulator (FINMA) said Credit Suisse had misled them about the scale of the spying. It said the bank planned seven different spying operations between 2016 and 2019 and carried out most of them.</p><p><blockquote>然而，10月份，瑞士金融监管机构(FINMA)表示，瑞士信贷在间谍活动的规模上误导了他们。据称，该银行在2016年至2019年间计划了七次不同的间谍行动，并实施了其中大部分行动。</blockquote></p><p> In a rare rebuke, it said there were serious organisational shortcomings at Credit Suisse and that the bank had even tried to cover its tracks by doctoring an invoice for surveillance.</p><p><blockquote>在一次罕见的谴责中，它表示瑞士信贷存在严重的组织缺陷，该银行甚至试图通过篡改发票进行监控来掩盖其踪迹。</blockquote></p><p> In response, Credit Suisse said that it condemned the spying and had taken \"decisive\" steps to improve its governance and strengthen compliance.</p><p><blockquote>对此，瑞信表示谴责间谍活动，并已采取“果断”措施改善治理并加强合规。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Spies, lies and losses: Credit Suisse's scandals<blockquote>间谍、谎言和损失：瑞士信贷的丑闻</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpies, lies and losses: Credit Suisse's scandals<blockquote>间谍、谎言和损失：瑞士信贷的丑闻</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 15:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy client base, the Swiss bank said on Thursday, as it regroups following a string of scandals.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-瑞士信贷周四表示，将削减其投资银行业务，专注于建立其富裕的客户群，该银行在一系列丑闻后进行重组。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, who joined in April from Britain's Lloyds Bank to help stop the rot, has said the scandals are the gravest he has seen.</p><p><blockquote>董事长安东尼奥·奥尔塔-奥索里奥(Antonio Horta-Osorio)四月份从英国劳埃德银行(Lloyds Bank)加入，以帮助制止腐败，他表示，这些丑闻是他见过的最严重的丑闻。</blockquote></p><p> Here are some details about the main crises to beset the bank in recent years:</p><p><blockquote>以下是近年来困扰该银行的主要危机的一些细节：</blockquote></p><p> TUNA BOND FRAUD</p><p><blockquote>我们有债券欺诈</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse pleaded guilty to defrauding investors over an $850 million loan to Mozambique meant to pay for a tuna fishing fleet and is paying U.S. and British regulators $475 million to settle the case under a deal announced in October.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷承认在向莫桑比克提供的8.5亿美元贷款中欺骗投资者，该贷款旨在支付一支金枪鱼渔船队的费用，并根据10月份宣布的一项协议，向美国和英国监管机构支付4.75亿美元以和解此案。</blockquote></p><p> About $200 million of the loan went in kickbacks to Credit Suisse bankers and Mozambican government officials. The bank was aware of a huge shortfall between the funds raised and the value of boats bought but failed to disclose this to investors when the loan was restructured in 2016, the regulators said.</p><p><blockquote>大约2亿美元的贷款以回扣的形式给了瑞士信贷的银行家和莫桑比克政府官员。监管机构表示，该银行意识到筹集的资金与购买的船只价值之间存在巨大缺口，但在2016年贷款重组时未能向投资者披露这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse also arranged a loan that was kept secret from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When Mozambique admitted to $1.4 billion in undisclosed loans the IMF pulled its support, sending the southern African country's economy into a tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷还安排了一笔对国际货币基金组织（IMF）保密的贷款。当莫桑比克承认有14亿美元未披露的贷款时，国际货币基金组织撤回了支持，使这个南部非洲国家的经济陷入混乱。</blockquote></p><p> ARCHEGOS DEFAULT</p><p><blockquote>ARCHEGOS默认值</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse lost $5.5 billion when U.S. family office Archegos Capital Management defaulted in March. The hedge fund's highly leveraged bets on certain technology stocks backfired and the value of its portfolio with Credit Suisse plummeted.</p><p><blockquote>当美国家族办公室Archegos Capital Management在3月份违约时，瑞士信贷损失了55亿美元。该对冲基金对某些科技股的高杠杆押注适得其反，其与瑞士信贷的投资组合价值暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> An independent report into the incident slammed the bank's conduct, saying its losses were the result of a fundamental failure of management and control at its investment bank, and its prime brokerage division in particular.</p><p><blockquote>一份关于该事件的独立报告猛烈抨击了该银行的行为，称其损失是其投资银行，特别是大宗经纪部门管理和控制根本失败的结果。</blockquote></p><p> The report said the bank was focused on maximising short-term profits and failed to rein in voracious risk-taking by Archegos, despite numerous warning signals, calling into question the competence of its risk personnel.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，该银行专注于短期利润最大化，尽管发出了许多警告信号，但未能遏制Archegos贪婪的冒险行为，这让人对其风险人员的能力产生了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> GREENSILL FUNDS COLLAPSE</p><p><blockquote>格林希尔基金倒闭</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was forced to freeze $10 billion of supply chain finance funds in March when British financier Greensill Capital collapsed after losing insurance cover for debt issued against its loans to companies.</p><p><blockquote>今年3月，英国金融家Greensill Capital因失去公司贷款债务保险而倒闭，瑞士信贷被迫冻结100亿美元的供应链金融资金。</blockquote></p><p> The Swiss bank had sold billions of dollars of Greensill's debt to investors, assuring them in marketing material that the high-yield notes were low risk because the underlying credit exposure was fully insured.</p><p><blockquote>这家瑞士银行已向投资者出售了数十亿美元的格林希尔债务，并在营销材料中向他们保证，高收益票据风险较低，因为基础信用风险已得到充分保险。</blockquote></p><p> A number of investors have sued the Swiss bank over the Greensill-linked funds. The bank said on Sept. 27 it had recovered and returned about $6.3 billion to investors but has warned it may struggle to recoup $2.3 billion of the total.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者已就格林希尔相关基金起诉这家瑞士银行。该银行9月27日表示，已收回并向投资者返还了约63亿美元，但警告称，可能难以收回其中的23亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> SPYING SCANDAL</p><p><blockquote>间谍丑闻</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam was forced to quit in March 2020 after an investigation found the bank hired private detectives to spy on its former head of wealth management Iqbal Kahn after he left for arch rival UBS.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席执行官蒂詹·蒂亚姆(Tidjane Thiam)于2020年3月被迫辞职，此前一项调查发现，在其前财富管理主管伊克巴尔·卡恩(Iqbal Kahn)前往主要竞争对手瑞银(UBS)后，该银行聘请了私家侦探对其进行SPDR标普500指数ETF。</blockquote></p><p> The bank repeatedly played down the episode as an isolated incident.</p><p><blockquote>该银行一再将这一事件淡化为孤立事件。</blockquote></p><p> In October, however, Switzerland's financial regulator (FINMA) said Credit Suisse had misled them about the scale of the spying. It said the bank planned seven different spying operations between 2016 and 2019 and carried out most of them.</p><p><blockquote>然而，10月份，瑞士金融监管机构(FINMA)表示，瑞士信贷在间谍活动的规模上误导了他们。据称，该银行在2016年至2019年间计划了七次不同的间谍行动，并实施了其中大部分行动。</blockquote></p><p> In a rare rebuke, it said there were serious organisational shortcomings at Credit Suisse and that the bank had even tried to cover its tracks by doctoring an invoice for surveillance.</p><p><blockquote>在一次罕见的谴责中，它表示瑞士信贷存在严重的组织缺陷，该银行甚至试图通过篡改发票进行监控来掩盖其踪迹。</blockquote></p><p> In response, Credit Suisse said that it condemned the spying and had taken \"decisive\" steps to improve its governance and strengthen compliance.</p><p><blockquote>对此，瑞信表示谴责间谍活动，并已采取“果断”措施改善治理并加强合规。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-spies-lies-losses-credit-073828712.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-spies-lies-losses-credit-073828712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115081189","content_text":"(Reuters) - Credit Suisse will pare back its investment bank and focus on building its wealthy client base, the Swiss bank said on Thursday, as it regroups following a string of scandals.\nChairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, who joined in April from Britain's Lloyds Bank to help stop the rot, has said the scandals are the gravest he has seen.\nHere are some details about the main crises to beset the bank in recent years:\nTUNA BOND FRAUD\nCredit Suisse pleaded guilty to defrauding investors over an $850 million loan to Mozambique meant to pay for a tuna fishing fleet and is paying U.S. and British regulators $475 million to settle the case under a deal announced in October.\nAbout $200 million of the loan went in kickbacks to Credit Suisse bankers and Mozambican government officials. The bank was aware of a huge shortfall between the funds raised and the value of boats bought but failed to disclose this to investors when the loan was restructured in 2016, the regulators said.\nCredit Suisse also arranged a loan that was kept secret from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When Mozambique admitted to $1.4 billion in undisclosed loans the IMF pulled its support, sending the southern African country's economy into a tailspin.\nARCHEGOS DEFAULT\nCredit Suisse lost $5.5 billion when U.S. family office Archegos Capital Management defaulted in March. The hedge fund's highly leveraged bets on certain technology stocks backfired and the value of its portfolio with Credit Suisse plummeted.\nAn independent report into the incident slammed the bank's conduct, saying its losses were the result of a fundamental failure of management and control at its investment bank, and its prime brokerage division in particular.\nThe report said the bank was focused on maximising short-term profits and failed to rein in voracious risk-taking by Archegos, despite numerous warning signals, calling into question the competence of its risk personnel.\nGREENSILL FUNDS COLLAPSE\nCredit Suisse was forced to freeze $10 billion of supply chain finance funds in March when British financier Greensill Capital collapsed after losing insurance cover for debt issued against its loans to companies.\nThe Swiss bank had sold billions of dollars of Greensill's debt to investors, assuring them in marketing material that the high-yield notes were low risk because the underlying credit exposure was fully insured.\nA number of investors have sued the Swiss bank over the Greensill-linked funds. The bank said on Sept. 27 it had recovered and returned about $6.3 billion to investors but has warned it may struggle to recoup $2.3 billion of the total.\nSPYING SCANDAL\nCredit Suisse Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam was forced to quit in March 2020 after an investigation found the bank hired private detectives to spy on its former head of wealth management Iqbal Kahn after he left for arch rival UBS.\nThe bank repeatedly played down the episode as an isolated incident.\nIn October, however, Switzerland's financial regulator (FINMA) said Credit Suisse had misled them about the scale of the spying. It said the bank planned seven different spying operations between 2016 and 2019 and carried out most of them.\nIn a rare rebuke, it said there were serious organisational shortcomings at Credit Suisse and that the bank had even tried to cover its tracks by doctoring an invoice for surveillance.\nIn response, Credit Suisse said that it condemned the spying and had taken \"decisive\" steps to improve its governance and strengthen compliance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841239781,"gmtCreate":1635913022569,"gmtModify":1635913022668,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585523380475263","authorIdStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841239781","repostId":"2180736486","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":883266137,"gmtCreate":1631245187929,"gmtModify":1631889150149,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883266137","repostId":"1109335825","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109335825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631244962,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109335825?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 11:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值上涨潜力巨大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109335825","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two mode","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.</li>  <li>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.</li>  <li>XPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.</li>  <li>I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.</li>  <li>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f094bec5a7e731c30721c91e342c6b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多用途车G3，另一款是名为P7的智能轿车。</li><li>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。</li><li>XPEV很可能在未来九年内实现近30%-25%的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。</li><li>我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026-2030年FCF/销售额8%-7%，销售额增长30%-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元。</li><li>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>随着数十亿美元投资于新的XPILOT技术，当管理层推出新技术时，小鹏汽车(XPEV)可能会给驾驶员带来惊喜。该公司还拥有大量现金用于投资中国和国际营销。考虑到这一点，并假设XPEV在未来看起来会像特斯拉(TSLA)，我设计了一个DCF模型。从2026年到2030年，我使用的FCF/销售额为8-7%，销售额增长率为30-28%。该公司的隐含估值接近114-157美元。公司估值有很大的上行潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务：新XPILOT技术和国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called&nbsp;P7:</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型：运动型多用途车G3和名为P 7的智能轿车：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acabdc3dd5b0d0c462eba459a9e1e1bb\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company’s Website</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司网站</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate&nbsp;XPILOT 3.5&nbsp;and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。在我看来，当投资者了解到XPEV即将发布的新技术时，对该股的需求将会增加：</blockquote></p><p>   The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube  In my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in&nbsp;Europe&nbsp;and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:</p><p><blockquote>新架构包括32个感知传感器（包括2个激光雷达单元、12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达和13个高分辨率摄像头）和1个高精度定位单元（GNSS+IMU），集成到360°双感知融合中，为感知传感器提供足够的冗余，以应对具有挑战性和复杂的路况。来源：YouTube在我看来，该股的另一个催化剂是该公司的国际扩张。我认为投资者没有考虑到XPEV最近出售股权的净收益中有近5%被用于扩大公司在欧洲和其他地方的业务。如果考虑到中国以外的市场机会，XPEV未来的自由现金流会爆炸式增长：</blockquote></p><p>   Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus  <b>Financial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash</b></p><p><blockquote>所得款项净额约5%（约689.0百万港元）预期将用于策略性地建立及扩大我们于国际市场的业务，首先是若干欧洲市场。资料来源：招股章程<b>财务状况：大量现金</b></blockquote></p><p> In June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>2021年6月，XPEV报告总资产为70亿美元，其中现金和短期存款43亿美元，负债价值20亿美元。有了这些财务数据，我相信公司有财力投资于研发和营销工作。该公司拥有促进销售增长所需的一切：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2abf76887014f48a87c9c7a7029035\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，XPEV报告的长期借款为2.47亿美元。该公司的长期借款似乎并不令人担忧。这还不是全部。XPEV报告了大量递延收入，这意味着客户需要提前付款才能获得该公司的产品。这意味着两件事。首先，该公司可能不必与银行家交谈，因为客户为汽车的开发提供资金。其次，XPEV的产品需求巨大：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397f5fd8052072ff7a3b46566ef81f21\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Base Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本情况</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，如果公司继续提供创新技术，销售增长将保持较高水平。在基本情况下，我假设该公司将推出XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0来支持下一代自动驾驶硬件。此外，我还假设该公司将成功重新设计其动力总成和E/E架构，以提供成本效率，并与蔚来（蔚来）或特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的汽车竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c3ebcbc58030fe748c5eada31f3b2c\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"763\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPILOT - YouTube</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Xpilot-YouTube</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.</p><p><blockquote>我还希望XPEV能够增加软件和内容产品的货币化，就像该公司通过XPILOT工具货币化所做的那样。此外，如果该公司成功与第三方应用程序开发商合作，我预计XPEV会找到更多的盈利模式。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，根据这些假设，XPEV将能够在未来九年内实现接近30%-25%的销量增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。这家美国公司从2012年到2014年的销售额增长了240%以上，然后从2016年到2021年增长了29-33%左右：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1c352dfb330231a94c71f9fcdb2ff9\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:</p><p><blockquote>我还研究了特斯拉的盈利能力，以了解XPEV何时可以开始提供运营现金流。特斯拉花了近14-16年的时间才从运营中提供了积极且可观的现金流。XPEV很可能会更快，因为它可能会从蔚来和特斯拉的车辆中获得某些战略信息。因此，我假设公司成立14-16年后，XPEV的现金流将为正：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268a9c3e5020079c07fc78fdf0bb2948\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:</p><p><blockquote>我的现金流数据如下表所示。我预计2021年至2027年运营现金流为负，2028年至2030年将逐渐增加。2030年，我假设销售额增长25%，资本支出/销售额增长4%，自由现金流/销售额增长6%。特斯拉的自由现金流/销售额目前等于8%。然而，我使用了低于特斯拉的自由现金流利润率，因为我预计电动汽车行业会有许多新进入者：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e70c302478a243eabc9687737d71948\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I assumed a&nbsp;WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:</p><p><blockquote>我假设WACC为7.26%，与中国其他汽车制造商的WACC非常接近。我没有变得非常保守或非常乐观。我使用的是市场对XPEV风险的看法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea2f16d5b605e6c3a231c197b1e9a8\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：小鹏汽车WACC%|XPEV-GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:</p><p><blockquote>2031年自由现金流为180亿元人民币，退出倍数为67倍，净债务接近-270亿元人民币，股数为7.96亿股，隐含股价等于796元人民币。如果我们使用美元，公允价值接近114美元。交易员目前以39美元的大幅折扣购买股票。出于某种原因，考虑到最近的价格动态，我想说投资者正在以36-40美元的价格积累股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5237646731308cc5239ea12ad336e3e3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a625f99f6ab5e57589f74eee5d0738\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Optimistic Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乐观情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Under my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.</p><p><blockquote>在我乐观的情况下，XPEV将大幅扩大其在城市实体店的业务，因此该公司的电动汽车将会找到需求。此外，公司将加大营销力度，小鹏品牌超级充电站网络将大幅扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Besides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在这种情况下，该公司将能够在中国境外销售。2020年，该公司在挪威交付了首批G3。如果XPEV能卖遍欧洲，相信销量增长还会保持高位：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus  With these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:</p><p><blockquote>我们计划继续扩展到其他国际市场，首先是某些欧洲市场。我们旨在建立及提升我们的海外销售及服务能力，并调整我们软件系统的用户界面，以优化我们为海外市场消费者提供的产品及服务。资料来源：招股书有了这些新的假设，我相信公司2026年至2030年的销售额增长将接近30-28%。我还假设2028年至2030年CFO/销售额为5%-11%，FCF/销售额为8%-7%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c9943f75ddd7cff700777aa946436fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在该案例情景下，公司的销售额增长幅度大于基准案例情景下的销售额增长幅度。自由现金流利润率和首席财务官利润率也更为重要。因此，我使用了87倍的退出倍数，这比基本情况下的要大。</blockquote></p><p> I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.</p><p><blockquote>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。把所有的东西放在一起，我得到了157美元的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ffa20f2e1a2f66bbad67c59ef709f7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Activities May Not Be Successful</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发活动未必成功</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&amp;D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，XPEV的主要战略来自于对研发的投资。该公司在自动驾驶、动力总成和E/E架构方面的创新将很可能决定该公司未来的成功。因此，如果公司的研发努力未能与竞争对手相比，公司的声誉可能会受到损害。因此，我预计收入会下降。在这种情况下，对自由现金流的预期会下降，这可能会导致公司估值下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Autonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自动驾驶技术和事故</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV很可能会像特斯拉一样遭受与自动驾驶系统相关的事故。这些事件可能会对公众认知产生负面影响，并很可能引发政府审查和进一步监管。中国、欧洲或美国的法规可能会损害公司的收入线或降低XPEV的自由现金流利润率。但这还不是全部。XPEV还可能取消客户已经下的订单，这很可能会导致自由现金流预期下降。因此，公司的公允价值可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV正在投入大量资金进行研发，以提供新的XPILOT技术和E/E架构。该公司还拥有大量现金来资助中国和中国以外的营销工作。我相信该公司的财务数字将接近特斯拉。考虑到这一点，我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026年至2030年FCF/销售额增长8-7%，销售额增长30-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元，高于公司当前股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值上涨潜力巨大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSignificant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值上涨潜力巨大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.</li>  <li>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.</li>  <li>XPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.</li>  <li>I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.</li>  <li>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f094bec5a7e731c30721c91e342c6b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多用途车G3，另一款是名为P7的智能轿车。</li><li>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。</li><li>XPEV很可能在未来九年内实现近30%-25%的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。</li><li>我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026-2030年FCF/销售额8%-7%，销售额增长30%-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元。</li><li>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>随着数十亿美元投资于新的XPILOT技术，当管理层推出新技术时，小鹏汽车(XPEV)可能会给驾驶员带来惊喜。该公司还拥有大量现金用于投资中国和国际营销。考虑到这一点，并假设XPEV在未来看起来会像特斯拉(TSLA)，我设计了一个DCF模型。从2026年到2030年，我使用的FCF/销售额为8-7%，销售额增长率为30-28%。该公司的隐含估值接近114-157美元。公司估值有很大的上行潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务：新XPILOT技术和国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called&nbsp;P7:</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型：运动型多用途车G3和名为P 7的智能轿车：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acabdc3dd5b0d0c462eba459a9e1e1bb\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company’s Website</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司网站</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate&nbsp;XPILOT 3.5&nbsp;and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。在我看来，当投资者了解到XPEV即将发布的新技术时，对该股的需求将会增加：</blockquote></p><p>   The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube  In my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in&nbsp;Europe&nbsp;and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:</p><p><blockquote>新架构包括32个感知传感器（包括2个激光雷达单元、12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达和13个高分辨率摄像头）和1个高精度定位单元（GNSS+IMU），集成到360°双感知融合中，为感知传感器提供足够的冗余，以应对具有挑战性和复杂的路况。来源：YouTube在我看来，该股的另一个催化剂是该公司的国际扩张。我认为投资者没有考虑到XPEV最近出售股权的净收益中有近5%被用于扩大公司在欧洲和其他地方的业务。如果考虑到中国以外的市场机会，XPEV未来的自由现金流会爆炸式增长：</blockquote></p><p>   Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus  <b>Financial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash</b></p><p><blockquote>所得款项净额约5%（约689.0百万港元）预期将用于策略性地建立及扩大我们于国际市场的业务，首先是若干欧洲市场。资料来源：招股章程<b>财务状况：大量现金</b></blockquote></p><p> In June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>2021年6月，XPEV报告总资产为70亿美元，其中现金和短期存款43亿美元，负债价值20亿美元。有了这些财务数据，我相信公司有财力投资于研发和营销工作。该公司拥有促进销售增长所需的一切：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2abf76887014f48a87c9c7a7029035\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，XPEV报告的长期借款为2.47亿美元。该公司的长期借款似乎并不令人担忧。这还不是全部。XPEV报告了大量递延收入，这意味着客户需要提前付款才能获得该公司的产品。这意味着两件事。首先，该公司可能不必与银行家交谈，因为客户为汽车的开发提供资金。其次，XPEV的产品需求巨大：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397f5fd8052072ff7a3b46566ef81f21\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Base Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本情况</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，如果公司继续提供创新技术，销售增长将保持较高水平。在基本情况下，我假设该公司将推出XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0来支持下一代自动驾驶硬件。此外，我还假设该公司将成功重新设计其动力总成和E/E架构，以提供成本效率，并与蔚来（蔚来）或特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的汽车竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c3ebcbc58030fe748c5eada31f3b2c\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"763\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPILOT - YouTube</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Xpilot-YouTube</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.</p><p><blockquote>我还希望XPEV能够增加软件和内容产品的货币化，就像该公司通过XPILOT工具货币化所做的那样。此外，如果该公司成功与第三方应用程序开发商合作，我预计XPEV会找到更多的盈利模式。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，根据这些假设，XPEV将能够在未来九年内实现接近30%-25%的销量增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。这家美国公司从2012年到2014年的销售额增长了240%以上，然后从2016年到2021年增长了29-33%左右：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1c352dfb330231a94c71f9fcdb2ff9\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:</p><p><blockquote>我还研究了特斯拉的盈利能力，以了解XPEV何时可以开始提供运营现金流。特斯拉花了近14-16年的时间才从运营中提供了积极且可观的现金流。XPEV很可能会更快，因为它可能会从蔚来和特斯拉的车辆中获得某些战略信息。因此，我假设公司成立14-16年后，XPEV的现金流将为正：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268a9c3e5020079c07fc78fdf0bb2948\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:</p><p><blockquote>我的现金流数据如下表所示。我预计2021年至2027年运营现金流为负，2028年至2030年将逐渐增加。2030年，我假设销售额增长25%，资本支出/销售额增长4%，自由现金流/销售额增长6%。特斯拉的自由现金流/销售额目前等于8%。然而，我使用了低于特斯拉的自由现金流利润率，因为我预计电动汽车行业会有许多新进入者：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e70c302478a243eabc9687737d71948\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I assumed a&nbsp;WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:</p><p><blockquote>我假设WACC为7.26%，与中国其他汽车制造商的WACC非常接近。我没有变得非常保守或非常乐观。我使用的是市场对XPEV风险的看法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea2f16d5b605e6c3a231c197b1e9a8\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：小鹏汽车WACC%|XPEV-GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:</p><p><blockquote>2031年自由现金流为180亿元人民币，退出倍数为67倍，净债务接近-270亿元人民币，股数为7.96亿股，隐含股价等于796元人民币。如果我们使用美元，公允价值接近114美元。交易员目前以39美元的大幅折扣购买股票。出于某种原因，考虑到最近的价格动态，我想说投资者正在以36-40美元的价格积累股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5237646731308cc5239ea12ad336e3e3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a625f99f6ab5e57589f74eee5d0738\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Optimistic Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乐观情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Under my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.</p><p><blockquote>在我乐观的情况下，XPEV将大幅扩大其在城市实体店的业务，因此该公司的电动汽车将会找到需求。此外，公司将加大营销力度，小鹏品牌超级充电站网络将大幅扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Besides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在这种情况下，该公司将能够在中国境外销售。2020年，该公司在挪威交付了首批G3。如果XPEV能卖遍欧洲，相信销量增长还会保持高位：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus  With these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:</p><p><blockquote>我们计划继续扩展到其他国际市场，首先是某些欧洲市场。我们旨在建立及提升我们的海外销售及服务能力，并调整我们软件系统的用户界面，以优化我们为海外市场消费者提供的产品及服务。资料来源：招股书有了这些新的假设，我相信公司2026年至2030年的销售额增长将接近30-28%。我还假设2028年至2030年CFO/销售额为5%-11%，FCF/销售额为8%-7%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c9943f75ddd7cff700777aa946436fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在该案例情景下，公司的销售额增长幅度大于基准案例情景下的销售额增长幅度。自由现金流利润率和首席财务官利润率也更为重要。因此，我使用了87倍的退出倍数，这比基本情况下的要大。</blockquote></p><p> I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.</p><p><blockquote>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。把所有的东西放在一起，我得到了157美元的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ffa20f2e1a2f66bbad67c59ef709f7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Activities May Not Be Successful</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发活动未必成功</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&amp;D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，XPEV的主要战略来自于对研发的投资。该公司在自动驾驶、动力总成和E/E架构方面的创新将很可能决定该公司未来的成功。因此，如果公司的研发努力未能与竞争对手相比，公司的声誉可能会受到损害。因此，我预计收入会下降。在这种情况下，对自由现金流的预期会下降，这可能会导致公司估值下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Autonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自动驾驶技术和事故</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV很可能会像特斯拉一样遭受与自动驾驶系统相关的事故。这些事件可能会对公众认知产生负面影响，并很可能引发政府审查和进一步监管。中国、欧洲或美国的法规可能会损害公司的收入线或降低XPEV的自由现金流利润率。但这还不是全部。XPEV还可能取消客户已经下的订单，这很可能会导致自由现金流预期下降。因此，公司的公允价值可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV正在投入大量资金进行研发，以提供新的XPILOT技术和E/E架构。该公司还拥有大量现金来资助中国和中国以外的营销工作。我相信该公司的财务数字将接近特斯拉。考虑到这一点，我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026年至2030年FCF/销售额增长8-7%，销售额增长30-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元，高于公司当前股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109335825","content_text":"Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.\nXPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.\nI designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.\n\nSimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images\nWith billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.\nBusiness: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7:\nSource: Company’s Website\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:\n\n The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube\n\nIn my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in Europe and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:\n\n Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nFinancial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash\nIn June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:\nSource: 10-Q\nAs of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:\nSource: 10-Q\nBase Case Scenario\nIn my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nSource: XPILOT - YouTube\nI would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.\nIn my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:\nSource: YCharts\nI also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:\nSource: YCharts\nMy cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nI assumed a WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:\nSource: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com\nWith a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOptimistic Case Scenario\nUnder my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.\nBesides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:\n\n We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nWith these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nUnder this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nR&D Activities May Not Be Successful\nIn my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.\nAutonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents\nXPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.\nConclusion\nXPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892658622,"gmtCreate":1628657705166,"gmtModify":1633745309297,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892658622","repostId":"1163924715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163924715","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628654753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163924715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减仓中概股的动作</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163924715","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond","content":"<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前下跌，美国10年期国债收益率在亚洲时段再度走低，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅最高达5%，中概股盘前小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一家公司已经清算或正在逐步清算其持有的股份。根据方舟基金的日常操作，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管前述股票近期出现了一定反弹。最近出现的一个更令人高兴的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减仓中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，方舟基金共覆盖了10只在美上市的中概股，其中包括8只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的中概股和2只港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计吸金18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够活跃的基金，18亿美元的持仓规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺发展中市场基金，该基金在中国的投资额为150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为本，但似乎该基金并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金目前持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest首席执行官兼首席信息官Cathie Wood曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们在百度股票中的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标不是中国电动汽车三巨头，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>，但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约卖得很好，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的减仓情况</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择10只股票分析其份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只股票（京东、TCEHY、BEKE、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，占比约80%，另外5只股票分别是阿里巴巴、牛、虎牙、比亚迪、BZ，合计3亿美元，占比约20%（图2）。关键日期标记如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金在7月13日和14日清仓了虎牙的所有头寸（如上图所示）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息于7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未大幅减仓，延续了前几日的节奏。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到发生了连锁反应，在香港上市的中资股将在接下来的一周暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被Ark减持，贝壳控股站在缺口处。这反映了Cathie Wood对中国高增长公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在此轮动荡中，方舟基金仅减仓了BOSS直聘的股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值比较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，中概股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，持仓为4.5亿美元，与7月1日相比减少了75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减仓中概股的动作</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减仓中概股的动作</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-11 12:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前下跌，美国10年期国债收益率在亚洲时段再度走低，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅最高达5%，中概股盘前小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一家公司已经清算或正在逐步清算其持有的股份。根据方舟基金的日常操作，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管前述股票近期出现了一定反弹。最近出现的一个更令人高兴的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减仓中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，方舟基金共覆盖了10只在美上市的中概股，其中包括8只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的中概股和2只港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计吸金18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够活跃的基金，18亿美元的持仓规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺发展中市场基金，该基金在中国的投资额为150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为本，但似乎该基金并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金目前持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest首席执行官兼首席信息官Cathie Wood曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们在百度股票中的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标不是中国电动汽车三巨头，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>，但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约卖得很好，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的减仓情况</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择10只股票分析其份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只股票（京东、TCEHY、BEKE、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，占比约80%，另外5只股票分别是阿里巴巴、牛、虎牙、比亚迪、BZ，合计3亿美元，占比约20%（图2）。关键日期标记如下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金在7月13日和14日清仓了虎牙的所有头寸（如上图所示）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息于7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未大幅减仓，延续了前几日的节奏。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到发生了连锁反应，在香港上市的中资股将在接下来的一周暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被Ark减持，贝壳控股站在缺口处。这反映了Cathie Wood对中国高增长公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在此轮动荡中，方舟基金仅减仓了BOSS直聘的股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值比较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，中概股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，持仓为4.5亿美元，与7月1日相比减少了75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","NIU":"小牛电动","BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163924715","content_text":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yields dropped again in Asias hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%. China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.\nIn the secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.\nOn July 1st, a total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including 8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC). Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as shown in the following figure.\n\nAbout Its Positions\nAs a fund that is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.\nThe Ark Funds claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American investor as well as the CEO & CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including Li Auto, NIO Inc. and XPeng Inc., but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by Niu Technologies are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".\nLet’s look into the lightening of the Ark Funds\n10 stocks are chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5 billion, accounting for about 80%. Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA, BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key dates are marked below.\nFigure 1\nFigure 2\nThe Ark Funds cleared all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and continued the pace in the past few days. \nAnother marked date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's suspicion of high-growth companies in China.\nThe third marked date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin (Kanzhun Limited), which is also a company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.\nIn the past week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7 stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450 million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"NIU":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819946017,"gmtCreate":1630030283639,"gmtModify":1704954857962,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819946017","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897204479,"gmtCreate":1628918897491,"gmtModify":1633688480237,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897204479","repostId":"2159321505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321505","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628911811,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2159321505?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在十月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321505","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. ","content":"<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three</p><p><blockquote>董事会成员的任期为两年，而不是三年</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc701f141f0c0044cabe912e510fe2e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk去年在德国。玛雅·希蒂吉/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司在周五晚间提交的文件中表示，该公司将于10月7日在加州弗里蒙特工厂举行股东大会，该公司将提出的提案包括缩短董事任期的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> One of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s&nbsp;board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.</p><p><blockquote>其中一项建议是评级将每名董事的任期从三年减至两年。特斯拉董事会目前有九名成员，分为三类，任期三年。</blockquote></p><p> If the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the&nbsp;filing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉在文件中表示，如果该提案获得批准，董事会将分为两个任期交错的类别，董事在两个类别之间的分布尽可能平均。</blockquote></p><p> The board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来一直在特斯拉董事会任职的风险投资家Antonio Gracias在2019年表示，今年任期结束后，他不会寻求连任，董事会成员将减少至8名。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp&nbsp;founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉董事会提名现任董事会成员、新闻集团创始人默多克的小儿子默多克（James Murdoch）和首席执行官马斯克（Elon Musk）的哥哥马斯克（Kimbal Musk）连任二级董事，任期将于2024年届满。该公司表示，如果期限缩减获得批准，那么他们的期限将于2023年结束。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉缩短董事会成员任期是对股东提议选举每位董事会成员一年的回应。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉表示，两年任期“在股东的长期利益和近期责任之间取得了适当的平衡”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在常规交易日收盘下跌0.7%后，在盘后交易中持平。该股今年已上涨1.6%，而标普500指数的涨幅约为19%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在十月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting<blockquote>特斯拉寻求缩短董事会成员任期，并在十月股东大会上做出其他改变</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three</p><p><blockquote>董事会成员的任期为两年，而不是三年</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc701f141f0c0044cabe912e510fe2e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>特斯拉首席执行官Elon Musk去年在德国。玛雅·希蒂吉/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司在周五晚间提交的文件中表示，该公司将于10月7日在加州弗里蒙特工厂举行股东大会，该公司将提出的提案包括缩短董事任期的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> One of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s&nbsp;board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.</p><p><blockquote>其中一项建议是评级将每名董事的任期从三年减至两年。特斯拉董事会目前有九名成员，分为三类，任期三年。</blockquote></p><p> If the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the&nbsp;filing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉在文件中表示，如果该提案获得批准，董事会将分为两个任期交错的类别，董事在两个类别之间的分布尽可能平均。</blockquote></p><p> The board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来一直在特斯拉董事会任职的风险投资家Antonio Gracias在2019年表示，今年任期结束后，他不会寻求连任，董事会成员将减少至8名。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp&nbsp;founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉董事会提名现任董事会成员、新闻集团创始人默多克的小儿子默多克（James Murdoch）和首席执行官马斯克（Elon Musk）的哥哥马斯克（Kimbal Musk）连任二级董事，任期将于2024年届满。该公司表示，如果期限缩减获得批准，那么他们的期限将于2023年结束。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉缩短董事会成员任期是对股东提议选举每位董事会成员一年的回应。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，特斯拉表示，两年任期“在股东的长期利益和近期责任之间取得了适当的平衡”。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&amp;P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在常规交易日收盘下跌0.7%后，在盘后交易中持平。该股今年已上涨1.6%，而标普500指数的涨幅约为19%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321505","content_text":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES\nTesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.\nOne of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.\nIf the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the filing.\nThe board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.\nTesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.\nTesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.\nThe two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.\nTesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&P 500 index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167937737,"gmtCreate":1624242070929,"gmtModify":1634009019311,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167937737","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":877759198,"gmtCreate":1637988560258,"gmtModify":1637988560392,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877759198","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878413636,"gmtCreate":1637219414306,"gmtModify":1637219414440,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woi","listText":"Woi","text":"Woi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878413636","repostId":"2184510828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168568076,"gmtCreate":1623978885495,"gmtModify":1634024874845,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment? 🙏🏼","listText":"Like and comment? 🙏🏼","text":"Like and comment? 🙏🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168568076","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":851883796,"gmtCreate":1634892129728,"gmtModify":1634892131344,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple M1 FTW!","listText":"Apple M1 FTW!","text":"Apple M1 FTW!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851883796","repostId":"1145809326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838098789,"gmtCreate":1629356508641,"gmtModify":1633685444858,"author":{"id":"3585523380475263","authorId":"3585523380475263","name":"Adren","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aadde2926bded6d94841939400c4029","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585523380475263","idStr":"3585523380475263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838098789","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}