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What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>
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22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184882386","media":"zerohedge","summary":"A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged","content":"<p>A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)最近也成为华尔街最大的空头警告称，市场的“滚动调整”预示着股市将下跌10-20%，他将当前的经济状况简单地总结为“中期周期”……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.</p><p><blockquote>...这当然是最好的地方，因为随着经济以温和的速度突突前进，股市最初的兴奋飙升逐渐减弱为缓慢而稳定的研磨。</blockquote></p><p> But what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.</p><p><blockquote>但如果他错了呢？毕竟，昨天NBER确定，covid衰退——仅2个月——是有记录以来最快的（尽管有1400万美国人失业，但仍在领取失业救济金），我们已经进入了周期的中期，如果不是接近尾声的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47d11bc07779a51cede0a73e7ddf627\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Also it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"<b>hotter but shorter</b>\" than usual.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正是威尔逊自己的雇主摩根士丹利，该公司最近也表示，这个周期将“<b>更热但更短</b>“比平常多了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Does it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?</p><p><blockquote>那么，由于30万亿美元的全球刺激计划，经济周期现在如此缩短，以至于我们已经度过了周期中期阶段，现在接近尾声，这难道不合理吗？</blockquote></p><p> That is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,<i>the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.</i></p><p><blockquote>这是德意志银行信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)隔夜提出的问题，他将这次复苏描述为“无疑是历史上最不寻常的，许多经济部门已经领先于衰退前的趋势”，尽管一些服务型部门仍然落后。更重要的是，根据Reid和DB经济学家的说法，<i>产出和就业差距可能会在未来几个季度缩小，这将是可观察到的经济史上最快的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Reid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"<b>making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.</b></p><p><blockquote>然后，里德研究了实际GDP、名义GDP、CPI、失业率、零售销售、股票、家庭财富、住房、国债和大宗商品与100多年前大多数变量的所有其他复苏相比的情况。下图显示了实际GDP，正如里德所解释的那样，“对于其中大多数来说，当前的新冠疫情后复苏已接近顶峰”<b>使这种复苏与二战后最快的扩张不相上下。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48279d702e3f7b92c743f063b26661ad\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?<b>The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>正如里德所说，“很明显，由于疫情，这个周期出现了大幅下降，但GFC也是如此，值得注意的是，后GFC时代的复苏在同一阶段是最弱的”，这就引出了一个问题：“这应该被视为一个新周期的开始，还是在一段与covid相关的冬眠期后上一个周期的延续？<b>这个问题的答案将为我们提供线索，让我们了解这个周期会持续多久、美联储未来的活动以及当前强劲反弹的通胀后果。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 22:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)最近也成为华尔街最大的空头警告称，市场的“滚动调整”预示着股市将下跌10-20%，他将当前的经济状况简单地总结为“中期周期”……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.</p><p><blockquote>...这当然是最好的地方，因为随着经济以温和的速度突突前进，股市最初的兴奋飙升逐渐减弱为缓慢而稳定的研磨。</blockquote></p><p> But what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.</p><p><blockquote>但如果他错了呢？毕竟，昨天NBER确定，covid衰退——仅2个月——是有记录以来最快的（尽管有1400万美国人失业，但仍在领取失业救济金），我们已经进入了周期的中期，如果不是接近尾声的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47d11bc07779a51cede0a73e7ddf627\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Also it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"<b>hotter but shorter</b>\" than usual.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正是威尔逊自己的雇主摩根士丹利，该公司最近也表示，这个周期将“<b>更热但更短</b>“比平常多了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Does it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?</p><p><blockquote>那么，由于30万亿美元的全球刺激计划，经济周期现在如此缩短，以至于我们已经度过了周期中期阶段，现在接近尾声，这难道不合理吗？</blockquote></p><p> That is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,<i>the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.</i></p><p><blockquote>这是德意志银行信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)隔夜提出的问题，他将这次复苏描述为“无疑是历史上最不寻常的，许多经济部门已经领先于衰退前的趋势”，尽管一些服务型部门仍然落后。更重要的是，根据Reid和DB经济学家的说法，<i>产出和就业差距可能会在未来几个季度缩小，这将是可观察到的经济史上最快的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Reid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"<b>making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.</b></p><p><blockquote>然后，里德研究了实际GDP、名义GDP、CPI、失业率、零售销售、股票、家庭财富、住房、国债和大宗商品与100多年前大多数变量的所有其他复苏相比的情况。下图显示了实际GDP，正如里德所解释的那样，“对于其中大多数来说，当前的新冠疫情后复苏已接近顶峰”<b>使这种复苏与二战后最快的扩张不相上下。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48279d702e3f7b92c743f063b26661ad\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?<b>The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>正如里德所说，“很明显，由于疫情，这个周期出现了大幅下降，但GFC也是如此，值得注意的是，后GFC时代的复苏在同一阶段是最弱的”，这就引出了一个问题：“这应该被视为一个新周期的开始，还是在一段与covid相关的冬眠期后上一个周期的延续？<b>这个问题的答案将为我们提供线索，让我们了解这个周期会持续多久、美联储未来的活动以及当前强劲反弹的通胀后果。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-economic-end-cycle\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-economic-end-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184882386","content_text":"A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...\n... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.\nBut what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.\nAlso it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"hotter but shorter\" than usual.\n\nDoes it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?\nThat is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.\nReid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.\nAs Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147054075,"gmtCreate":1626322638497,"gmtModify":1631888353432,"author":{"id":"3585378195882039","authorId":"3585378195882039","name":"esim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d16772806afe3d6fe654384cad7dbf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585378195882039","idStr":"3585378195882039"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147054075","repostId":"1138248041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138248041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626319474,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138248041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>台积电周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138248041","media":"Barron's","summary":"With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Ta","content":"<p>With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports earnings—and about whether the company is still on track to pour billions into meeting demand.</p><p><blockquote>如果幸运的话，当台积电周四公布财报时，投资者将对全球芯片短缺有一些新的了解，以及该公司是否仍有望投入数十亿美元来满足需求。</blockquote></p><p> But if the chip maker’s executives stick with their tradition of being tight-lipped, investors might not get much more than the numbers for insight.</p><p><blockquote>但如果这家芯片制造商的高管坚持守口如瓶的传统，投资者可能不会得到比数据更多的洞察力。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has high expectations for Taiwan Semi (ticker: TSM), which is set to release second-quarter results before the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街对台积电（股票代码：TSM）寄予厚望，该公司将在开盘前发布第二季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus calls for earnings to grow nearly 13% to NT$5.24 a share on revenue of NT$371.7 billion ($13.3 billion), an increase of 19% compared to the year-ago period. Revenue is all but a lock because Taiwan Semi discloses its monthly figure every month—that sum is about NT$372 billion.</p><p><blockquote>普遍评级是盈利将增长近13%，达到每股新台币5.24元，营收为新台币3,717亿元（133亿美元），比去年同期增长19%。收入几乎是锁定的，因为台积电每个月都会披露其月度数据——总额约为3720亿新台币。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Taiwan Semi executives increased the company’s 2021 capital spending plan to $30 billion, from an expected $25 billion to $28 billion—and put the three-year figure at $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，台积电高管将公司2021年资本支出计划从预期的250亿美元增加到280亿美元，并将三年数字定为1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company will divert most of the capital spending cash to building manufacturing capacity for its most advanced processors used by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and Intel (INTC).</p><p><blockquote>该公司将把大部分资本支出现金用于建设超微设备(AMD)、苹果(AAPL)和英特尔(INTC)使用的最先进处理器的制造能力。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst Gokul Hariharan expects Apple to contribute a hefty amount to Taiwan Semi’s sales since Apple’s new iPhone and Mac processors are manufactured by Taiwan chip giant. The analyst didn’t offer an dollar estimate, though.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Gokul Hariharan预计，由于苹果的新款iPhone和Mac处理器是由台湾芯片巨头制造的，苹果将为台积电的销售做出巨大贡献。不过，该分析师没有提供美元预估。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Mark Li sees a risk for Taiwan Semi in the possible slowing of demand for smartphone and cryptocurrency mining chips. He softened his assessment, however, by pointing out that the company’s older processing manufacturing capacity would be full, and that Apple could be expected to make a big contribution to third-quarter revenue. Li predicts Taiwan Semi may grow revenue about 15% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein分析师Mark Li认为，台积电面临的风险是智能手机和加密货币挖矿芯片的需求可能放缓。不过，他软化了自己的评估，指出该公司较旧的加工制造能力将已满，预计苹果将为第三季度收入做出巨大贡献。Li预测台积电2022年收入可能增长15%左右。</blockquote></p><p> If Taiwan Semi executives do talk about the future, they could touch on the company’s new 3-nanometer production technology. Intel and Apple may be the first two companies to adopt the technology, according to Nikkei Asia, a financial news website. Mass production is set to begin in 2022, with Intel taking more chip volume than Apple, the report said.</p><p><blockquote>如果台积电高管确实谈论未来，他们可能会谈到该公司新的3纳米生产技术。据财经新闻网站日经亚洲报道，英特尔和苹果可能是最先采用该技术的两家公司。报道称，大规模生产将于2022年开始，英特尔的芯片产量将超过苹果。</blockquote></p><p> New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu writes that Intel’s decision to outsource production to Taiwan Semi “remains more tactical than strategic.” Given the report in Nikkei, Intel appears to be adopting the production technology ahead of AMD, Ferragu said.</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu写道，英特尔将生产外包给台积电的决定“仍然是战术性的，而不是战略性的”。Ferragu表示，鉴于《日经新闻》的报道，英特尔似乎在AMD之前采用了该生产技术。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts that cover Taiwan Semi, 34 rate the stock a Buy, and three have Hold ratings. There are no Sell ratings. The average target price for American depositary receipts is $146.18, which implies upside of about 17%.</p><p><blockquote>在研究台积电的分析师中，34名分析师给予该股买入评级，3名分析师给予持有评级。没有卖出评级。美国存托凭证的平均目标价为146.18美元，意味着约17%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semi shares advanced roughly 90% this year, as the PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained about 63%.</p><p><blockquote>台积电股价今年上涨了约90%，PHLX半导体指数(Sox)上涨了约63%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>台积电周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>台积电周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports earnings—and about whether the company is still on track to pour billions into meeting demand.</p><p><blockquote>如果幸运的话，当台积电周四公布财报时，投资者将对全球芯片短缺有一些新的了解，以及该公司是否仍有望投入数十亿美元来满足需求。</blockquote></p><p> But if the chip maker’s executives stick with their tradition of being tight-lipped, investors might not get much more than the numbers for insight.</p><p><blockquote>但如果这家芯片制造商的高管坚持守口如瓶的传统，投资者可能不会得到比数据更多的洞察力。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has high expectations for Taiwan Semi (ticker: TSM), which is set to release second-quarter results before the opening bell.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街对台积电（股票代码：TSM）寄予厚望，该公司将在开盘前发布第二季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus calls for earnings to grow nearly 13% to NT$5.24 a share on revenue of NT$371.7 billion ($13.3 billion), an increase of 19% compared to the year-ago period. Revenue is all but a lock because Taiwan Semi discloses its monthly figure every month—that sum is about NT$372 billion.</p><p><blockquote>普遍评级是盈利将增长近13%，达到每股新台币5.24元，营收为新台币3,717亿元（133亿美元），比去年同期增长19%。收入几乎是锁定的，因为台积电每个月都会披露其月度数据——总额约为3720亿新台币。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, Taiwan Semi executives increased the company’s 2021 capital spending plan to $30 billion, from an expected $25 billion to $28 billion—and put the three-year figure at $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，台积电高管将公司2021年资本支出计划从预期的250亿美元增加到280亿美元，并将三年数字定为1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company will divert most of the capital spending cash to building manufacturing capacity for its most advanced processors used by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and Intel (INTC).</p><p><blockquote>该公司将把大部分资本支出现金用于建设超微设备(AMD)、苹果(AAPL)和英特尔(INTC)使用的最先进处理器的制造能力。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst Gokul Hariharan expects Apple to contribute a hefty amount to Taiwan Semi’s sales since Apple’s new iPhone and Mac processors are manufactured by Taiwan chip giant. The analyst didn’t offer an dollar estimate, though.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Gokul Hariharan预计，由于苹果的新款iPhone和Mac处理器是由台湾芯片巨头制造的，苹果将为台积电的销售做出巨大贡献。不过，该分析师没有提供美元预估。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Mark Li sees a risk for Taiwan Semi in the possible slowing of demand for smartphone and cryptocurrency mining chips. He softened his assessment, however, by pointing out that the company’s older processing manufacturing capacity would be full, and that Apple could be expected to make a big contribution to third-quarter revenue. Li predicts Taiwan Semi may grow revenue about 15% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein分析师Mark Li认为，台积电面临的风险是智能手机和加密货币挖矿芯片的需求可能放缓。不过，他软化了自己的评估，指出该公司较旧的加工制造能力将已满，预计苹果将为第三季度收入做出巨大贡献。Li预测台积电2022年收入可能增长15%左右。</blockquote></p><p> If Taiwan Semi executives do talk about the future, they could touch on the company’s new 3-nanometer production technology. Intel and Apple may be the first two companies to adopt the technology, according to Nikkei Asia, a financial news website. Mass production is set to begin in 2022, with Intel taking more chip volume than Apple, the report said.</p><p><blockquote>如果台积电高管确实谈论未来，他们可能会谈到该公司新的3纳米生产技术。据财经新闻网站日经亚洲报道，英特尔和苹果可能是最先采用该技术的两家公司。报道称，大规模生产将于2022年开始，英特尔的芯片产量将超过苹果。</blockquote></p><p> New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu writes that Intel’s decision to outsource production to Taiwan Semi “remains more tactical than strategic.” Given the report in Nikkei, Intel appears to be adopting the production technology ahead of AMD, Ferragu said.</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu写道，英特尔将生产外包给台积电的决定“仍然是战术性的，而不是战略性的”。Ferragu表示，鉴于《日经新闻》的报道，英特尔似乎在AMD之前采用了该生产技术。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts that cover Taiwan Semi, 34 rate the stock a Buy, and three have Hold ratings. There are no Sell ratings. The average target price for American depositary receipts is $146.18, which implies upside of about 17%.</p><p><blockquote>在研究台积电的分析师中，34名分析师给予该股买入评级，3名分析师给予持有评级。没有卖出评级。美国存托凭证的平均目标价为146.18美元，意味着约17%的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semi shares advanced roughly 90% this year, as the PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained about 63%.</p><p><blockquote>台积电股价今年上涨了约90%，PHLX半导体指数(Sox)上涨了约63%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-earnings-51626299252?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-earnings-51626299252?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138248041","content_text":"With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports earnings—and about whether the company is still on track to pour billions into meeting demand.\nBut if the chip maker’s executives stick with their tradition of being tight-lipped, investors might not get much more than the numbers for insight.\nWall Street has high expectations for Taiwan Semi (ticker: TSM), which is set to release second-quarter results before the opening bell.\nThe consensus calls for earnings to grow nearly 13% to NT$5.24 a share on revenue of NT$371.7 billion ($13.3 billion), an increase of 19% compared to the year-ago period. Revenue is all but a lock because Taiwan Semi discloses its monthly figure every month—that sum is about NT$372 billion.\nEarlier this year, Taiwan Semi executives increased the company’s 2021 capital spending plan to $30 billion, from an expected $25 billion to $28 billion—and put the three-year figure at $100 billion.\nThe company will divert most of the capital spending cash to building manufacturing capacity for its most advanced processors used by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and Intel (INTC).\nJ.P. Morgan analyst Gokul Hariharan expects Apple to contribute a hefty amount to Taiwan Semi’s sales since Apple’s new iPhone and Mac processors are manufactured by Taiwan chip giant. The analyst didn’t offer an dollar estimate, though.\nBernstein analyst Mark Li sees a risk for Taiwan Semi in the possible slowing of demand for smartphone and cryptocurrency mining chips. He softened his assessment, however, by pointing out that the company’s older processing manufacturing capacity would be full, and that Apple could be expected to make a big contribution to third-quarter revenue. Li predicts Taiwan Semi may grow revenue about 15% in 2022.\nIf Taiwan Semi executives do talk about the future, they could touch on the company’s new 3-nanometer production technology. Intel and Apple may be the first two companies to adopt the technology, according to Nikkei Asia, a financial news website. Mass production is set to begin in 2022, with Intel taking more chip volume than Apple, the report said.\nNew Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu writes that Intel’s decision to outsource production to Taiwan Semi “remains more tactical than strategic.” Given the report in Nikkei, Intel appears to be adopting the production technology ahead of AMD, Ferragu said.\nOf the analysts that cover Taiwan Semi, 34 rate the stock a Buy, and three have Hold ratings. 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","text":"Hi.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d892bdc187d2e285b98f95c4337f162f","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117318904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":178163856,"gmtCreate":1626792371375,"gmtModify":1631888353419,"author":{"id":"3585378195882039","authorId":"3585378195882039","name":"esim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d16772806afe3d6fe654384cad7dbf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585378195882039","authorIdStr":"3585378195882039"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":45,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178163856","repostId":"1184882386","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184882386","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626790245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184882386?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184882386","media":"zerohedge","summary":"A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged","content":"<p>A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)最近也成为华尔街最大的空头警告称，市场的“滚动调整”预示着股市将下跌10-20%，他将当前的经济状况简单地总结为“中期周期”……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.</p><p><blockquote>...这当然是最好的地方，因为随着经济以温和的速度突突前进，股市最初的兴奋飙升逐渐减弱为缓慢而稳定的研磨。</blockquote></p><p> But what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.</p><p><blockquote>但如果他错了呢？毕竟，昨天NBER确定，covid衰退——仅2个月——是有记录以来最快的（尽管有1400万美国人失业，但仍在领取失业救济金），我们已经进入了周期的中期，如果不是接近尾声的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47d11bc07779a51cede0a73e7ddf627\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Also it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"<b>hotter but shorter</b>\" than usual.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正是威尔逊自己的雇主摩根士丹利，该公司最近也表示，这个周期将“<b>更热但更短</b>“比平常多了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Does it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?</p><p><blockquote>那么，由于30万亿美元的全球刺激计划，经济周期现在如此缩短，以至于我们已经度过了周期中期阶段，现在接近尾声，这难道不合理吗？</blockquote></p><p> That is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,<i>the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.</i></p><p><blockquote>这是德意志银行信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)隔夜提出的问题，他将这次复苏描述为“无疑是历史上最不寻常的，许多经济部门已经领先于衰退前的趋势”，尽管一些服务型部门仍然落后。更重要的是，根据Reid和DB经济学家的说法，<i>产出和就业差距可能会在未来几个季度缩小，这将是可观察到的经济史上最快的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Reid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"<b>making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.</b></p><p><blockquote>然后，里德研究了实际GDP、名义GDP、CPI、失业率、零售销售、股票、家庭财富、住房、国债和大宗商品与100多年前大多数变量的所有其他复苏相比的情况。下图显示了实际GDP，正如里德所解释的那样，“对于其中大多数来说，当前的新冠疫情后复苏已接近顶峰”<b>使这种复苏与二战后最快的扩张不相上下。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48279d702e3f7b92c743f063b26661ad\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?<b>The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>正如里德所说，“很明显，由于疫情，这个周期出现了大幅下降，但GFC也是如此，值得注意的是，后GFC时代的复苏在同一阶段是最弱的”，这就引出了一个问题：“这应该被视为一个新周期的开始，还是在一段与covid相关的冬眠期后上一个周期的延续？<b>这个问题的答案将为我们提供线索，让我们了解这个周期会持续多久、美联储未来的活动以及当前强劲反弹的通胀后果。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat If This Is The Economic End-Cycle<blockquote>如果这是经济周期结束怎么办</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 22:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)最近也成为华尔街最大的空头警告称，市场的“滚动调整”预示着股市将下跌10-20%，他将当前的经济状况简单地总结为“中期周期”……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.</p><p><blockquote>...这当然是最好的地方，因为随着经济以温和的速度突突前进，股市最初的兴奋飙升逐渐减弱为缓慢而稳定的研磨。</blockquote></p><p> But what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.</p><p><blockquote>但如果他错了呢？毕竟，昨天NBER确定，covid衰退——仅2个月——是有记录以来最快的（尽管有1400万美国人失业，但仍在领取失业救济金），我们已经进入了周期的中期，如果不是接近尾声的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47d11bc07779a51cede0a73e7ddf627\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Also it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"<b>hotter but shorter</b>\" than usual.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正是威尔逊自己的雇主摩根士丹利，该公司最近也表示，这个周期将“<b>更热但更短</b>“比平常多了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Does it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?</p><p><blockquote>那么，由于30万亿美元的全球刺激计划，经济周期现在如此缩短，以至于我们已经度过了周期中期阶段，现在接近尾声，这难道不合理吗？</blockquote></p><p> That is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,<i>the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.</i></p><p><blockquote>这是德意志银行信贷策略师吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)隔夜提出的问题，他将这次复苏描述为“无疑是历史上最不寻常的，许多经济部门已经领先于衰退前的趋势”，尽管一些服务型部门仍然落后。更重要的是，根据Reid和DB经济学家的说法，<i>产出和就业差距可能会在未来几个季度缩小，这将是可观察到的经济史上最快的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Reid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. The chart below shows real GDP and as Reid explains, \"for most of these, this current post covid recovery is near the top\"<b>making this recovery neck and neck with the fastest post-WWII expansion.</b></p><p><blockquote>然后，里德研究了实际GDP、名义GDP、CPI、失业率、零售销售、股票、家庭财富、住房、国债和大宗商品与100多年前大多数变量的所有其他复苏相比的情况。下图显示了实际GDP，正如里德所解释的那样，“对于其中大多数来说，当前的新冠疫情后复苏已接近顶峰”<b>使这种复苏与二战后最快的扩张不相上下。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48279d702e3f7b92c743f063b26661ad\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Reid puts it, \"clearly this cycle saw a big drawdown due to the pandemic but so did the GFC and its notable that the post-GFC recovery was around the weakest at the same stage\" which begs the question: \"should this be seen as the start of a new cycle or a continuation of the last cycle after a period of covid related hibernation?<b>The answer to this will give us clues as to how long this cycle lasts, future Fed activity, and on the inflationary consequences of the current strong rebound.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>正如里德所说，“很明显，由于疫情，这个周期出现了大幅下降，但GFC也是如此，值得注意的是，后GFC时代的复苏在同一阶段是最弱的”，这就引出了一个问题：“这应该被视为一个新周期的开始，还是在一段与covid相关的冬眠期后上一个周期的延续？<b>这个问题的答案将为我们提供线索，让我们了解这个周期会持续多久、美联储未来的活动以及当前强劲反弹的通胀后果。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-economic-end-cycle\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-economic-end-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184882386","content_text":"A few months ago, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson, who also recently emerged as the biggest Wall Street bear warning that the \"rolling corrections\" in themarket presage a 10-20% drop in stocks, summarized the current economic state simply as \"mid cycle\"...\n... which of course is the best place to be, as the initial euphoric surge higher in stocks tapers to a slow and steady grind as the economy chugs along at a modest pace.\nBut what if he is wrong? After all, yesterday the NBER determined that the covid recession - at just 2 months - was the fastest on record (even as 14 million Americans are out of a job and still collect unemployment benefits) and we are already well into the mid cycle, if not approaching the end.\nAlso it is none other than Wilson's own employer Morgan Stanley, which has also said recently that this cycle will be \"hotter but shorter\" than usual.\n\nDoes it not stand to reason then, that the economic cycle is now so truncated - courtesy of $30 trillion in global stimulus - that we have blasted right through the midcycle phase and are now nearing the end?\nThat is the question Deutsche Bank's credit strategist Jim Reid asked overnight, when he described this recovery as \"undoubtedly the most unusual in history with many sectors of the economy already running ahead of their pre-recession trend\" even though several serviced based ones are still well behind though. More importantly, according to Reid and DB economists,the output and employment gap will likely close in the next couple of quarters which will be the quickest for both in observable economic history.\nReid then takes a look at where real GDP, nominal GDP, CPI, unemployment, retail sales, equities, household wealth, housing, treasuries and commodities are against all other recoveries for most variables goes back over 100 years. 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