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Yukitan

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2021-07-30

嗯

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2021-07-25

Like

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2021-07-23

Good

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2021-07-17

加油

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2021-07-17

最近卖了很多mi

小米逆袭全球第二，苹果没拦住

2021-07-17

😉

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2021-07-16

Good

自动驾驶公司Aurora通过SPAC上市

2021-07-13

好好哦

宣布全员涨薪两个月！京东涨超5%

2021-07-13

赞

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2021-07-11

你的婚礼

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2021-07-11

你的婚礼

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2021-06-08

Hi

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2021-06-08

Can give me a nice day

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2021-06-06

Ada BI hu

Marqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于这家为 Square、DoorDash 等公司提供服务的金融科技公司，您需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>

2021-06-06

Tell me your opinion about this news...

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2021-06-06

Hello

Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>

2021-06-06

Hello

U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>

2021-06-04

Like and comment please

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2021-06-04

Like and comment please

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2021-06-04

Hi

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"authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"嗯","listText":"嗯","text":"嗯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806904266","repostId":"1194212028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177286408,"gmtCreate":1627224050404,"gmtModify":1633767061740,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177286408","repostId":"2154939496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175703588,"gmtCreate":1627048301944,"gmtModify":1633768461702,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175703588","repostId":"2153983294","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179234281,"gmtCreate":1626531584743,"gmtModify":1633926023831,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"加油","listText":"加油","text":"加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179234281","repostId":"1152148407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":179234144,"gmtCreate":1626531548188,"gmtModify":1633926024076,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"最近卖了很多mi","listText":"最近卖了很多mi","text":"最近卖了很多mi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179234144","repostId":"1166843923","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166843923","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1626493881,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166843923?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-17 11:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米逆袭全球第二，苹果没拦住","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166843923","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"小米往前一小步，苹果都成了背景板。\n7月16日凌晨，小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军按捺不住内心的激动，在微博宣布，“Canalys发布了第二季度全球智能手机市占率排名，小米手机销量超越了苹果，首次","content":"<p>小米往前一小步，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都成了背景板。</p>\n<p>7月16日凌晨，小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军按捺不住内心的激动，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>宣布，“Canalys发布了第二季度全球<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机市占率排名，小米手机销量超越了苹果，首次晋升全球第二。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c9c57286064d558a5c76d659cd4537\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>你没有看错，小米超越苹果，“摸”到了全球第二的位置——这是小米自创立以来，首次在全球总销量上超越苹果。而就在前一天，雷军刚在福布斯中国发布最佳CEO榜中，荣登首位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc9a77be49c8d254e7f797551c8c6774\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>难怪雷军在全员信中将之称为“天大的好消息”，他说：“小米第一次成为全球第二，这是个梦幻般的成就，是小米发展史上的重大里程碑！”</p>\n<p>Canalys（市场调研机构）报告显示，2021Q2全球智能机出货量增长了12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>以19%的全球市场份额位列榜首；小米以 17%的全球市场份额屈居第二；苹果则滑落至全球第三，仅剩14%的全球市场份额；OPPO、vivo分别以10%的全球市场份额位列第四、第五。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502c766a856f58aca5e5673ec09132e0\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>值得注意的是，五大厂商中，小米第二季度销量增速惊人，同比增长高达83%。</p>\n<p>小米亮眼的成绩自然刺激到了资本市场的神经——受此消息影响，7月16日港股开盘，小米股价就迅速拉涨，截至7月16日港股收盘，小米集团港股涨4.82%，报28.25港元/股，总市值达7086亿港元。</p>\n<p>挤下苹果，小米凭什么？</p>\n<p>如果只看国内的话，Canalys公布的2021Q1国内手机市场份额数据，vivo以23%的市场份额以及79%的增长速度排名第一，而小米在国内连前三都没挤进去，屈居第四。</p>\n<p>那么，小米2021Q2力压苹果的销量从何而来呢？答案就在那83%的增长里，而这83%的新增量中有70%来源于海外市场。</p>\n<p>数据显示，2021Q2，华为海外市场份额萎缩最明显的欧洲，大多数原本与华为合作的运营商选择了小米，小米因此成为欧洲市场仅次于三星的第二大手机厂商，份额占比达23%，同比增长85%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd636d54752c003dd239858ccac8c0f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，小米本季度也在积极开拓非洲市场、拉丁美洲市场，两地增长分别达150%、300%。这主要源于疫情使该地区智能机、智能设备需求大幅度增加，而小米迅速填补了这部分市场需求。</p>\n<p>这既得益于小米的全球化运营能力，比如整合渠道合作伙伴、更精细化管理旧库存等，也归功于小米手机为符合当地各种技术标准所做的各种努力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0eb1fa086a28a0e651e66b20a022632\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>其实，小米的统治力Q1季度就已露出端倪——Canalys报告显示，2021Q1，小米全球主要市场市占率及排名分别是，印度地区市占率28.3%，排名第一；欧洲地区市占率22.7%，排名第二；亚太地区市占率17.5%，排名第二；拉美地区市占率达11.5%，排名第三；非洲地区市占率7.2%，排名第四。</p>\n<p>其中，尤以欧洲市场的爆发最为典型。</p>\n<p>根据小米2021Q1财报显示，欧洲市场智能手机销量同比增长85.1%，首次达到第二。其中，西欧智能手机市占率稳居第三，销量同比增长86.1%；东欧智能手机市占率连续两个季度第一，销量同比增长81.1%；西班牙智能手机市占率连续五个季度稳居第一。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b0841e12c9b8b2eaaf9dde419fabf7f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了销量增长势头强劲外，小米手机的质量也得到了欧洲市场的普遍认可。</p>\n<p>2021年5月，Computer Bild（德国三大评测机构之一）在报告中称，小米11 Ultra不仅是最好的小米智能手机，也是目前最好的安卓手机，在智能手机对比测试中已经把三星、华为、一加等公司甩在了后面。</p>\n<p>Computer Bild还在专业报告中指出，“从设计上来说，小米11Ultra具备卓越的速度和强大的显示效果。它有一个凸起的相机，除了长焦镜头和其他镜头外，还装有很酷的辅助显示屏，可以显示信息、图像或文字，或者在用主摄像头自拍时，充当取景器。”</p>\n<p>至于拉美、非洲地区，小米2021Q1智能手机销量同比增长分别为161.7%、191%，拉美地区中的智利市场异军突起。</p>\n<p>据市场研究机构Strategy Analytics 数据显示，2021Q1 智利智能手机销量290万部，小米以50万部的销量夺得市场第三名，年同比增长高达1025%，成为该地区增长最快的智能手机品牌。与此同时，小米在智利的市场占有率也从去年同期的2.4%&nbsp;上升至15.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99eaa22550e8dbd53ec5e6163d34246c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>对此，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 分析称：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “&nbsp;小米旗下的红米手机具有很高的性价比，这使得该款手机在因为疫情而\"&nbsp;消费 降级&nbsp;\"&nbsp;的智利消费者中获得了强烈认可，从而帮助小米在该地区获得了销量第三名的位置，也进一步提高了市场占有率。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>而小米集团合伙人、总裁王翔则表示，小米已经成为一家真正的全球化企业，产品进入近一百个国家，营收一半来源于海外市场。“不单单在发展中国家，如中国、印度、亚太地区，也进入了发达国家的地区和市场。我们的市场有战略纵深，所以能让我们走到今天这一步。”</p>\n<p>华为跌倒，小米吃饱？</p>\n<p>有人对小米的逆袭拍手叫好，自然也会有人冷嘲热讽，戏称其是“华为跌倒，小米吃饱”。</p>\n<p>不可否认，分食华为全球智能手机市场份额，确实是头部手机厂商增速加快的原因之一。</p>\n<p>2019年5月以来，美国将华为列入“实体清单”，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>宣布停止提供安卓系统和谷歌GMS后，华为的海外销量及市场份额暴跌。</p>\n<p>根据Canalys数据，华为2019Q2海外市场销量为2140万台，2020年Q2，这个数字只剩下了1560万台，同比下降27%，到了2021Q1，华为仅占全球智能手机销量4%，排名第六，位于三星、苹果、小米、OPPO、vivo之后。</p>\n<p>当时，日本经济新闻等媒体猜测，这些市场份额会被三星全盘收下，不过从目前来看，华为缺位后，小米才是这场“分食华为抢位战”中的最大受益者。</p>\n<p>在欧洲，2019年Q2，小米销量还只有430万台，市占率9.6%，排名第四；2020年Q2，小米销量已经超过华为，达到710万台，市占率17%，排名第三。2021Q1小米在欧洲地区市占率22.7%，排名第二，不到两年，小米在欧洲的市占率翻了两倍不止，业务突飞猛进。</p>\n<p>至于拉丁美洲，2020年第四季度华为跌出当地智能手机销量前五后，小米便很快接管了大部分原本属于华为市场份额。</p>\n<p>其实，去年并非小米第一次征战拉丁美洲——早在2015年7月，小米就曾宣布进军巴西市场，但当时巴西经济状况不佳，民众也没有线上消费习惯，再加上高昂的税收和苛刻的贸易保护政策，让小米寸步难行。2016年5月份，小米宣布改变巴西市场策略，短期之内不再发布新款手机，团队也将返回中国，进军拉美的尝试以失败告终。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b19b647933c7f1f6140c481d04d5e4f\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>再回拉丁美洲市场，小米的策略和打法成熟了许多——在地域上，先选择了贸易政策更为开放的智利作为第一站；在销售策略上，努力配合拉美国家线下消费的习惯，在一些大型商场和手机专卖店进行产品销售，再逐步布局实体“米店”，直到2019年4月27日，小米首家智利“米店”才在智利首都圣地亚哥东部繁华商圈开业。</p>\n<p>功夫不负有心人，学会“因地制宜”的小米终于在2021Q1将智利市占率从2020年同期的2.4% 提升至15.5%。</p>\n<p>对此，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 认为，“（在智利）华为手机此段时间的‘失利’确实利好小米，但更大的增长空间源于小米自身。\"</p>\n<p>除此之外，小米成为全球第二，和苹果自身也有一定关系。</p>\n<p>2021Q2季度苹果处于销售淡季，销量偏低并不意外。比如从Counterpoint发布的苹果公司2018Q1~2021Q1的iPhone销量便可以看出：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917e7355c2da26dfc6ab177c14a9ba39\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>苹果营收和利润向来有很强的季节性</p>\n<p>Q1通常是苹果销量偏高的季度，Q2销量通常会比前一季度大幅减少，Q3则是全年销量的低谷，因为9~10月份是苹果主要产品线iPhone新品发布时间，新产品发布前，分销商的存货量会逐渐控制减少，并为新品发布作准备，Q4新品发布后，销量又会大幅攀升。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，国外的上市公司财季周期与国内不同。苹果的财年周期是上一年的9月28日至今年的9月27日。因此我们这里讨论的Q2，对应为苹果公司Q3，即销量低迷的季度。</p>\n<p>反观小米，2021Q2季度海外市场疯狂扩张，增速强劲，这一时期销量赶超苹果并非没有可能，只不过大家没有预料到，小米的增速能达到83%。</p>\n<p>至于Canalys 研究经理 Ben Stanton认为，“小米已经将目光投向下一个目标：取代三星，成为全球头号厂商。”</p>\n<p>短期来看，并不现实。</p>\n<p>首先，虽然小米如今占据着全球手机市场17%的份额，与三星仅剩2%的差距，但要知道，从产品到供应链垂直整合能力，三星都比小米厉害，尤其供应链上下游整合能力小米更是差距巨大——三星自产芯片、屏幕、存储和组装工厂，而小米则严重依赖供应商。</p>\n<p>其次，小米仅仅是销量挤到了全球第二的位置，但2020年三星和苹果却拿走了全球手机产业链大部分利润。</p>\n<p>OPPO中国区总裁就曾在接受采访时表示，在中国手机市场当中，高端机型的市场份额接近25%，其中苹果占到44%，考虑到未来华为可能会缺席这场竞赛，如果其他国产厂商无法及时填补这个空缺话，很有可能会被苹果继续侵蚀。</p>\n<p>所以，小米能在第二的位置“苟住”已属不易，就别再给小米冲第一的“幻觉”了。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米逆袭全球第二，苹果没拦住</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米逆袭全球第二，苹果没拦住\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-17 11:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>小米往前一小步，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都成了背景板。</p>\n<p>7月16日凌晨，小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军按捺不住内心的激动，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>宣布，“Canalys发布了第二季度全球<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机市占率排名，小米手机销量超越了苹果，首次晋升全球第二。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c9c57286064d558a5c76d659cd4537\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>你没有看错，小米超越苹果，“摸”到了全球第二的位置——这是小米自创立以来，首次在全球总销量上超越苹果。而就在前一天，雷军刚在福布斯中国发布最佳CEO榜中，荣登首位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc9a77be49c8d254e7f797551c8c6774\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>难怪雷军在全员信中将之称为“天大的好消息”，他说：“小米第一次成为全球第二，这是个梦幻般的成就，是小米发展史上的重大里程碑！”</p>\n<p>Canalys（市场调研机构）报告显示，2021Q2全球智能机出货量增长了12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>以19%的全球市场份额位列榜首；小米以 17%的全球市场份额屈居第二；苹果则滑落至全球第三，仅剩14%的全球市场份额；OPPO、vivo分别以10%的全球市场份额位列第四、第五。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502c766a856f58aca5e5673ec09132e0\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>值得注意的是，五大厂商中，小米第二季度销量增速惊人，同比增长高达83%。</p>\n<p>小米亮眼的成绩自然刺激到了资本市场的神经——受此消息影响，7月16日港股开盘，小米股价就迅速拉涨，截至7月16日港股收盘，小米集团港股涨4.82%，报28.25港元/股，总市值达7086亿港元。</p>\n<p>挤下苹果，小米凭什么？</p>\n<p>如果只看国内的话，Canalys公布的2021Q1国内手机市场份额数据，vivo以23%的市场份额以及79%的增长速度排名第一，而小米在国内连前三都没挤进去，屈居第四。</p>\n<p>那么，小米2021Q2力压苹果的销量从何而来呢？答案就在那83%的增长里，而这83%的新增量中有70%来源于海外市场。</p>\n<p>数据显示，2021Q2，华为海外市场份额萎缩最明显的欧洲，大多数原本与华为合作的运营商选择了小米，小米因此成为欧洲市场仅次于三星的第二大手机厂商，份额占比达23%，同比增长85%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd636d54752c003dd239858ccac8c0f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，小米本季度也在积极开拓非洲市场、拉丁美洲市场，两地增长分别达150%、300%。这主要源于疫情使该地区智能机、智能设备需求大幅度增加，而小米迅速填补了这部分市场需求。</p>\n<p>这既得益于小米的全球化运营能力，比如整合渠道合作伙伴、更精细化管理旧库存等，也归功于小米手机为符合当地各种技术标准所做的各种努力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0eb1fa086a28a0e651e66b20a022632\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>其实，小米的统治力Q1季度就已露出端倪——Canalys报告显示，2021Q1，小米全球主要市场市占率及排名分别是，印度地区市占率28.3%，排名第一；欧洲地区市占率22.7%，排名第二；亚太地区市占率17.5%，排名第二；拉美地区市占率达11.5%，排名第三；非洲地区市占率7.2%，排名第四。</p>\n<p>其中，尤以欧洲市场的爆发最为典型。</p>\n<p>根据小米2021Q1财报显示，欧洲市场智能手机销量同比增长85.1%，首次达到第二。其中，西欧智能手机市占率稳居第三，销量同比增长86.1%；东欧智能手机市占率连续两个季度第一，销量同比增长81.1%；西班牙智能手机市占率连续五个季度稳居第一。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b0841e12c9b8b2eaaf9dde419fabf7f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了销量增长势头强劲外，小米手机的质量也得到了欧洲市场的普遍认可。</p>\n<p>2021年5月，Computer Bild（德国三大评测机构之一）在报告中称，小米11 Ultra不仅是最好的小米智能手机，也是目前最好的安卓手机，在智能手机对比测试中已经把三星、华为、一加等公司甩在了后面。</p>\n<p>Computer Bild还在专业报告中指出，“从设计上来说，小米11Ultra具备卓越的速度和强大的显示效果。它有一个凸起的相机，除了长焦镜头和其他镜头外，还装有很酷的辅助显示屏，可以显示信息、图像或文字，或者在用主摄像头自拍时，充当取景器。”</p>\n<p>至于拉美、非洲地区，小米2021Q1智能手机销量同比增长分别为161.7%、191%，拉美地区中的智利市场异军突起。</p>\n<p>据市场研究机构Strategy Analytics 数据显示，2021Q1 智利智能手机销量290万部，小米以50万部的销量夺得市场第三名，年同比增长高达1025%，成为该地区增长最快的智能手机品牌。与此同时，小米在智利的市场占有率也从去年同期的2.4%&nbsp;上升至15.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99eaa22550e8dbd53ec5e6163d34246c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>对此，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 分析称：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “&nbsp;小米旗下的红米手机具有很高的性价比，这使得该款手机在因为疫情而\"&nbsp;消费 降级&nbsp;\"&nbsp;的智利消费者中获得了强烈认可，从而帮助小米在该地区获得了销量第三名的位置，也进一步提高了市场占有率。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>而小米集团合伙人、总裁王翔则表示，小米已经成为一家真正的全球化企业，产品进入近一百个国家，营收一半来源于海外市场。“不单单在发展中国家，如中国、印度、亚太地区，也进入了发达国家的地区和市场。我们的市场有战略纵深，所以能让我们走到今天这一步。”</p>\n<p>华为跌倒，小米吃饱？</p>\n<p>有人对小米的逆袭拍手叫好，自然也会有人冷嘲热讽，戏称其是“华为跌倒，小米吃饱”。</p>\n<p>不可否认，分食华为全球智能手机市场份额，确实是头部手机厂商增速加快的原因之一。</p>\n<p>2019年5月以来，美国将华为列入“实体清单”，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>宣布停止提供安卓系统和谷歌GMS后，华为的海外销量及市场份额暴跌。</p>\n<p>根据Canalys数据，华为2019Q2海外市场销量为2140万台，2020年Q2，这个数字只剩下了1560万台，同比下降27%，到了2021Q1，华为仅占全球智能手机销量4%，排名第六，位于三星、苹果、小米、OPPO、vivo之后。</p>\n<p>当时，日本经济新闻等媒体猜测，这些市场份额会被三星全盘收下，不过从目前来看，华为缺位后，小米才是这场“分食华为抢位战”中的最大受益者。</p>\n<p>在欧洲，2019年Q2，小米销量还只有430万台，市占率9.6%，排名第四；2020年Q2，小米销量已经超过华为，达到710万台，市占率17%，排名第三。2021Q1小米在欧洲地区市占率22.7%，排名第二，不到两年，小米在欧洲的市占率翻了两倍不止，业务突飞猛进。</p>\n<p>至于拉丁美洲，2020年第四季度华为跌出当地智能手机销量前五后，小米便很快接管了大部分原本属于华为市场份额。</p>\n<p>其实，去年并非小米第一次征战拉丁美洲——早在2015年7月，小米就曾宣布进军巴西市场，但当时巴西经济状况不佳，民众也没有线上消费习惯，再加上高昂的税收和苛刻的贸易保护政策，让小米寸步难行。2016年5月份，小米宣布改变巴西市场策略，短期之内不再发布新款手机，团队也将返回中国，进军拉美的尝试以失败告终。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b19b647933c7f1f6140c481d04d5e4f\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>再回拉丁美洲市场，小米的策略和打法成熟了许多——在地域上，先选择了贸易政策更为开放的智利作为第一站；在销售策略上，努力配合拉美国家线下消费的习惯，在一些大型商场和手机专卖店进行产品销售，再逐步布局实体“米店”，直到2019年4月27日，小米首家智利“米店”才在智利首都圣地亚哥东部繁华商圈开业。</p>\n<p>功夫不负有心人，学会“因地制宜”的小米终于在2021Q1将智利市占率从2020年同期的2.4% 提升至15.5%。</p>\n<p>对此，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 认为，“（在智利）华为手机此段时间的‘失利’确实利好小米，但更大的增长空间源于小米自身。\"</p>\n<p>除此之外，小米成为全球第二，和苹果自身也有一定关系。</p>\n<p>2021Q2季度苹果处于销售淡季，销量偏低并不意外。比如从Counterpoint发布的苹果公司2018Q1~2021Q1的iPhone销量便可以看出：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917e7355c2da26dfc6ab177c14a9ba39\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>苹果营收和利润向来有很强的季节性</p>\n<p>Q1通常是苹果销量偏高的季度，Q2销量通常会比前一季度大幅减少，Q3则是全年销量的低谷，因为9~10月份是苹果主要产品线iPhone新品发布时间，新产品发布前，分销商的存货量会逐渐控制减少，并为新品发布作准备，Q4新品发布后，销量又会大幅攀升。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，国外的上市公司财季周期与国内不同。苹果的财年周期是上一年的9月28日至今年的9月27日。因此我们这里讨论的Q2，对应为苹果公司Q3，即销量低迷的季度。</p>\n<p>反观小米，2021Q2季度海外市场疯狂扩张，增速强劲，这一时期销量赶超苹果并非没有可能，只不过大家没有预料到，小米的增速能达到83%。</p>\n<p>至于Canalys 研究经理 Ben Stanton认为，“小米已经将目光投向下一个目标：取代三星，成为全球头号厂商。”</p>\n<p>短期来看，并不现实。</p>\n<p>首先，虽然小米如今占据着全球手机市场17%的份额，与三星仅剩2%的差距，但要知道，从产品到供应链垂直整合能力，三星都比小米厉害，尤其供应链上下游整合能力小米更是差距巨大——三星自产芯片、屏幕、存储和组装工厂，而小米则严重依赖供应商。</p>\n<p>其次，小米仅仅是销量挤到了全球第二的位置，但2020年三星和苹果却拿走了全球手机产业链大部分利润。</p>\n<p>OPPO中国区总裁就曾在接受采访时表示，在中国手机市场当中，高端机型的市场份额接近25%，其中苹果占到44%，考虑到未来华为可能会缺席这场竞赛，如果其他国产厂商无法及时填补这个空缺话，很有可能会被苹果继续侵蚀。</p>\n<p>所以，小米能在第二的位置“苟住”已属不易，就别再给小米冲第一的“幻觉”了。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c9710c2d10626e3300cf4e73167b810","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","03086":"华夏纳指","01810":"小米集团-W","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166843923","content_text":"小米往前一小步，苹果都成了背景板。\n7月16日凌晨，小米集团创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军按捺不住内心的激动，在微博宣布，“Canalys发布了第二季度全球智能手机市占率排名，小米手机销量超越了苹果，首次晋升全球第二。”\n\n你没有看错，小米超越苹果，“摸”到了全球第二的位置——这是小米自创立以来，首次在全球总销量上超越苹果。而就在前一天，雷军刚在福布斯中国发布最佳CEO榜中，荣登首位。\n\n难怪雷军在全员信中将之称为“天大的好消息”，他说：“小米第一次成为全球第二，这是个梦幻般的成就，是小米发展史上的重大里程碑！”\nCanalys（市场调研机构）报告显示，2021Q2全球智能机出货量增长了12%，三星以19%的全球市场份额位列榜首；小米以 17%的全球市场份额屈居第二；苹果则滑落至全球第三，仅剩14%的全球市场份额；OPPO、vivo分别以10%的全球市场份额位列第四、第五。\n\n值得注意的是，五大厂商中，小米第二季度销量增速惊人，同比增长高达83%。\n小米亮眼的成绩自然刺激到了资本市场的神经——受此消息影响，7月16日港股开盘，小米股价就迅速拉涨，截至7月16日港股收盘，小米集团港股涨4.82%，报28.25港元/股，总市值达7086亿港元。\n挤下苹果，小米凭什么？\n如果只看国内的话，Canalys公布的2021Q1国内手机市场份额数据，vivo以23%的市场份额以及79%的增长速度排名第一，而小米在国内连前三都没挤进去，屈居第四。\n那么，小米2021Q2力压苹果的销量从何而来呢？答案就在那83%的增长里，而这83%的新增量中有70%来源于海外市场。\n数据显示，2021Q2，华为海外市场份额萎缩最明显的欧洲，大多数原本与华为合作的运营商选择了小米，小米因此成为欧洲市场仅次于三星的第二大手机厂商，份额占比达23%，同比增长85%。\n\n此外，小米本季度也在积极开拓非洲市场、拉丁美洲市场，两地增长分别达150%、300%。这主要源于疫情使该地区智能机、智能设备需求大幅度增加，而小米迅速填补了这部分市场需求。\n这既得益于小米的全球化运营能力，比如整合渠道合作伙伴、更精细化管理旧库存等，也归功于小米手机为符合当地各种技术标准所做的各种努力。\n\n其实，小米的统治力Q1季度就已露出端倪——Canalys报告显示，2021Q1，小米全球主要市场市占率及排名分别是，印度地区市占率28.3%，排名第一；欧洲地区市占率22.7%，排名第二；亚太地区市占率17.5%，排名第二；拉美地区市占率达11.5%，排名第三；非洲地区市占率7.2%，排名第四。\n其中，尤以欧洲市场的爆发最为典型。\n根据小米2021Q1财报显示，欧洲市场智能手机销量同比增长85.1%，首次达到第二。其中，西欧智能手机市占率稳居第三，销量同比增长86.1%；东欧智能手机市占率连续两个季度第一，销量同比增长81.1%；西班牙智能手机市占率连续五个季度稳居第一。\n\n除了销量增长势头强劲外，小米手机的质量也得到了欧洲市场的普遍认可。\n2021年5月，Computer Bild（德国三大评测机构之一）在报告中称，小米11 Ultra不仅是最好的小米智能手机，也是目前最好的安卓手机，在智能手机对比测试中已经把三星、华为、一加等公司甩在了后面。\nComputer Bild还在专业报告中指出，“从设计上来说，小米11Ultra具备卓越的速度和强大的显示效果。它有一个凸起的相机，除了长焦镜头和其他镜头外，还装有很酷的辅助显示屏，可以显示信息、图像或文字，或者在用主摄像头自拍时，充当取景器。”\n至于拉美、非洲地区，小米2021Q1智能手机销量同比增长分别为161.7%、191%，拉美地区中的智利市场异军突起。\n据市场研究机构Strategy Analytics 数据显示，2021Q1 智利智能手机销量290万部，小米以50万部的销量夺得市场第三名，年同比增长高达1025%，成为该地区增长最快的智能手机品牌。与此同时，小米在智利的市场占有率也从去年同期的2.4% 上升至15.5%。\n\n对此，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 分析称：\n\n “ 小米旗下的红米手机具有很高的性价比，这使得该款手机在因为疫情而\" 消费 降级 \" 的智利消费者中获得了强烈认可，从而帮助小米在该地区获得了销量第三名的位置，也进一步提高了市场占有率。”\n\n而小米集团合伙人、总裁王翔则表示，小米已经成为一家真正的全球化企业，产品进入近一百个国家，营收一半来源于海外市场。“不单单在发展中国家，如中国、印度、亚太地区，也进入了发达国家的地区和市场。我们的市场有战略纵深，所以能让我们走到今天这一步。”\n华为跌倒，小米吃饱？\n有人对小米的逆袭拍手叫好，自然也会有人冷嘲热讽，戏称其是“华为跌倒，小米吃饱”。\n不可否认，分食华为全球智能手机市场份额，确实是头部手机厂商增速加快的原因之一。\n2019年5月以来，美国将华为列入“实体清单”，在谷歌宣布停止提供安卓系统和谷歌GMS后，华为的海外销量及市场份额暴跌。\n根据Canalys数据，华为2019Q2海外市场销量为2140万台，2020年Q2，这个数字只剩下了1560万台，同比下降27%，到了2021Q1，华为仅占全球智能手机销量4%，排名第六，位于三星、苹果、小米、OPPO、vivo之后。\n当时，日本经济新闻等媒体猜测，这些市场份额会被三星全盘收下，不过从目前来看，华为缺位后，小米才是这场“分食华为抢位战”中的最大受益者。\n在欧洲，2019年Q2，小米销量还只有430万台，市占率9.6%，排名第四；2020年Q2，小米销量已经超过华为，达到710万台，市占率17%，排名第三。2021Q1小米在欧洲地区市占率22.7%，排名第二，不到两年，小米在欧洲的市占率翻了两倍不止，业务突飞猛进。\n至于拉丁美洲，2020年第四季度华为跌出当地智能手机销量前五后，小米便很快接管了大部分原本属于华为市场份额。\n其实，去年并非小米第一次征战拉丁美洲——早在2015年7月，小米就曾宣布进军巴西市场，但当时巴西经济状况不佳，民众也没有线上消费习惯，再加上高昂的税收和苛刻的贸易保护政策，让小米寸步难行。2016年5月份，小米宣布改变巴西市场策略，短期之内不再发布新款手机，团队也将返回中国，进军拉美的尝试以失败告终。\n\n再回拉丁美洲市场，小米的策略和打法成熟了许多——在地域上，先选择了贸易政策更为开放的智利作为第一站；在销售策略上，努力配合拉美国家线下消费的习惯，在一些大型商场和手机专卖店进行产品销售，再逐步布局实体“米店”，直到2019年4月27日，小米首家智利“米店”才在智利首都圣地亚哥东部繁华商圈开业。\n功夫不负有心人，学会“因地制宜”的小米终于在2021Q1将智利市占率从2020年同期的2.4% 提升至15.5%。\n对此，Strategy Analytics 高级分析师 Rajeev Nair 认为，“（在智利）华为手机此段时间的‘失利’确实利好小米，但更大的增长空间源于小米自身。\"\n除此之外，小米成为全球第二，和苹果自身也有一定关系。\n2021Q2季度苹果处于销售淡季，销量偏低并不意外。比如从Counterpoint发布的苹果公司2018Q1~2021Q1的iPhone销量便可以看出：\n\n苹果营收和利润向来有很强的季节性\nQ1通常是苹果销量偏高的季度，Q2销量通常会比前一季度大幅减少，Q3则是全年销量的低谷，因为9~10月份是苹果主要产品线iPhone新品发布时间，新产品发布前，分销商的存货量会逐渐控制减少，并为新品发布作准备，Q4新品发布后，销量又会大幅攀升。\n值得注意的是，国外的上市公司财季周期与国内不同。苹果的财年周期是上一年的9月28日至今年的9月27日。因此我们这里讨论的Q2，对应为苹果公司Q3，即销量低迷的季度。\n反观小米，2021Q2季度海外市场疯狂扩张，增速强劲，这一时期销量赶超苹果并非没有可能，只不过大家没有预料到，小米的增速能达到83%。\n至于Canalys 研究经理 Ben Stanton认为，“小米已经将目光投向下一个目标：取代三星，成为全球头号厂商。”\n短期来看，并不现实。\n首先，虽然小米如今占据着全球手机市场17%的份额，与三星仅剩2%的差距，但要知道，从产品到供应链垂直整合能力，三星都比小米厉害，尤其供应链上下游整合能力小米更是差距巨大——三星自产芯片、屏幕、存储和组装工厂，而小米则严重依赖供应商。\n其次，小米仅仅是销量挤到了全球第二的位置，但2020年三星和苹果却拿走了全球手机产业链大部分利润。\nOPPO中国区总裁就曾在接受采访时表示，在中国手机市场当中，高端机型的市场份额接近25%，其中苹果占到44%，考虑到未来华为可能会缺席这场竞赛，如果其他国产厂商无法及时填补这个空缺话，很有可能会被苹果继续侵蚀。\n所以，小米能在第二的位置“苟住”已属不易，就别再给小米冲第一的“幻觉”了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"09086":0.9,"01810":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":179234901,"gmtCreate":1626531505503,"gmtModify":1633926024201,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😉","listText":"😉","text":"😉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179234901","repostId":"1169032103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170512800,"gmtCreate":1626442407900,"gmtModify":1633926727549,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170512800","repostId":"1178066057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178066057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626441337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178066057?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 21:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"自动驾驶公司Aurora通过SPAC上市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178066057","media":"智车科技","summary":"导读 \n2021年7月15日，自动驾驶创企Aurora与SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）公司Reinvent technology Partners签署了一份最终的合并协议，将以106亿美元的企业价值上市","content":"<p><b>导读</b><b>&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p>2021年7月15日，自动驾驶创企<b>Aurora与SPAC</b>（特殊目的收购公司）公司Reinvent technology Partners签署了一份最终的合并协议，将以106亿美元的企业价值上市，交易预计将于今年完成，交易结束后，将为Aurora带来约20亿美元的新现金，这将<b>有助于这家初创公司成为自动驾驶卡车运输和自动驾驶出租车行业公司的自动驾驶硬件和软件供应商。</b></p>\n<p><b>1</b></p>\n<p><b>SPAC上市</b></p>\n<p>Reinvent technology Partners已经在纳斯达克证券交易所上市，由LinkedIn联合创始人Reid Hoffman、Zynga创始人Mark Pincus和投资者Michael Thompson管理。SPAC公司Reinvent technology Partners的联合创始人兼董事Mark Pincus表示：“我们相信，<b>Aurora将率先在美国卡车运输和客运市场大规模地将自动驾驶技术商业化，其基础是其行业领先的团队、技术和合作伙伴关系</b>”。卡车企业PACCAR Inc.和Volvo Group是Reinvent technology Partners的投资者之一。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c95d62c76a3b2c17675e59b308931634\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Reinvent SPAC包括9.775亿美元在IPO中筹集的资金，以创建一家将成为Aurora Innovation Inc.的空壳公司，通过PIPE进行10亿美元的私人投资，以及Aurora账面上约6亿美元的现金。<b>预计今年下半年企业合并结束时，Aurora将获得约25亿美元。如果没有PIPE投资者出售他们的股份，合并后公司的估值将为130亿美元。</b>106亿美元的企业价值是基于2027年预估营收的5.3倍。</p>\n<p>Aurora的创始人在四年内不能出售股票，SPAC的一些领导人也同意了类似的条款。</p>\n<p><b>2</b></p>\n<p><b>关于Aurora</b></p>\n<p>Aurora成立于2017年，历史短暂，联合创始人来自谷歌、特斯拉和优步。Aurora已与PACCAR品牌Kenworth Trucks和Peterbilt Motors以及瑞典沃尔沃集团建立了发展合作关系，该公司将致力于让自动驾驶卡车在自动驾驶出租车之前上路。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e5f7ab80eea079f3b6032971d53a3f\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>volvo北美与Aurora合作的自动驾驶卡车</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7045d4d019a36f07fdba4e08ae34088e\" tg-width=\"311\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Peterbilt 579 Test Vehicle with Aurora Driver</span></p>\n<p><b>该公司计划在2023年底推出首款配备Aurora Driver的L4级自动驾驶8级卡车。如果按计划实现，它将先于竞争对手图森未来（TuSimple）和TRATON Group旗下Navistar International计划的2024年8级自动驾驶卡车上市。</b>它还计划在2024年底开始在代驾车辆上使用Aurora Driver。</p>\n<p>去年12月，Uber与卡车制造商PACCAR和沃尔沃集团一起，作为战略投资者，收购了Aurora 26%的股权，以换取收购优步的自动驾驶汽车部门。根据这笔交易，当时的Aurora价值100亿美元。Aurora还与丰田在自动驾驶乘用车移动性方面建立了合作关系。</p>\n<p>Aurora将通过此次合并SPAC筹集20亿美元资金。SPAC并购使得需要资金的初创企业获得大量现金，这对烧钱能力极强的自动驾驶公司来说非常及时。Aurora在2020年亏损2.14亿美元（其中1.79亿美元用于研发），而自那以来，现金消耗的速度一直在加快，仅2021年第一季度，这家初创公司就亏损了1.89亿美元（该季度的研发支出为1.59亿美元）。</p>\n<p><b>3</b></p>\n<p><b>其他自动驾驶卡车创企动向</b></p>\n<p><b>Embark自动驾驶卡车</b></p>\n<p>在其他自动驾驶卡车创企中，Embark Trucks公司上个月同意与Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp.进行SPAC合并，企业价值45.5亿美元。智加科技（Plus）在5月份与Hennessy进行了SPAC合并，企业价值24.7亿美元。今年4月，图森未来（TuSimple）通过传统的IPO方式上市，目前的企业价值是109亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>智加科技自动驾驶卡车</b></p>\n<p>此次Aurora上市之后，将仅剩谷歌支持的Waymo和Kodiak Robotics这两家自动驾驶卡车公司尚未官宣上市。Waymo最近从现有投资者那里筹集了25亿美元的新资金，用于其自动打车业务和Waymo Via自动驾驶卡车业务。Kodiak公司则吸引了轮胎制造商普利司通美国公司（Bridgestone America）的一笔未公开的投资。</p>\n<p><b>4</b></p>\n<p><b>未来与挑战</b></p>\n<p>虽然自动驾驶卡车的商业模式很有吸引力，但将这一承诺变为现实，并实际解决L4级自动驾驶的复杂性是一个巨大的挑战。自动驾驶汽车的商业化远比几年前许多人预测的更具挑战性。</p>","source":"lsy1601787905034","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自动驾驶公司Aurora通过SPAC上市</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自动驾驶公司Aurora通过SPAC上市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 21:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L4_lzckpN85RgMWTfSR-Dw><strong>智车科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导读 \n2021年7月15日，自动驾驶创企Aurora与SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）公司Reinvent technology Partners签署了一份最终的合并协议，将以106亿美元的企业价值上市，交易预计将于今年完成，交易结束后，将为Aurora带来约20亿美元的新现金，这将有助于这家初创公司成为自动驾驶卡车运输和自动驾驶出租车行业公司的自动驾驶硬件和软件供应商。\n1\nSPAC上市\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L4_lzckpN85RgMWTfSR-Dw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c95d62c76a3b2c17675e59b308931634","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L4_lzckpN85RgMWTfSR-Dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178066057","content_text":"导读 \n2021年7月15日，自动驾驶创企Aurora与SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）公司Reinvent technology Partners签署了一份最终的合并协议，将以106亿美元的企业价值上市，交易预计将于今年完成，交易结束后，将为Aurora带来约20亿美元的新现金，这将有助于这家初创公司成为自动驾驶卡车运输和自动驾驶出租车行业公司的自动驾驶硬件和软件供应商。\n1\nSPAC上市\nReinvent technology Partners已经在纳斯达克证券交易所上市，由LinkedIn联合创始人Reid Hoffman、Zynga创始人Mark Pincus和投资者Michael Thompson管理。SPAC公司Reinvent technology Partners的联合创始人兼董事Mark Pincus表示：“我们相信，Aurora将率先在美国卡车运输和客运市场大规模地将自动驾驶技术商业化，其基础是其行业领先的团队、技术和合作伙伴关系”。卡车企业PACCAR Inc.和Volvo Group是Reinvent technology Partners的投资者之一。\n\nReinvent SPAC包括9.775亿美元在IPO中筹集的资金，以创建一家将成为Aurora Innovation Inc.的空壳公司，通过PIPE进行10亿美元的私人投资，以及Aurora账面上约6亿美元的现金。预计今年下半年企业合并结束时，Aurora将获得约25亿美元。如果没有PIPE投资者出售他们的股份，合并后公司的估值将为130亿美元。106亿美元的企业价值是基于2027年预估营收的5.3倍。\nAurora的创始人在四年内不能出售股票，SPAC的一些领导人也同意了类似的条款。\n2\n关于Aurora\nAurora成立于2017年，历史短暂，联合创始人来自谷歌、特斯拉和优步。Aurora已与PACCAR品牌Kenworth Trucks和Peterbilt Motors以及瑞典沃尔沃集团建立了发展合作关系，该公司将致力于让自动驾驶卡车在自动驾驶出租车之前上路。\nvolvo北美与Aurora合作的自动驾驶卡车\nPeterbilt 579 Test Vehicle with Aurora Driver\n该公司计划在2023年底推出首款配备Aurora Driver的L4级自动驾驶8级卡车。如果按计划实现，它将先于竞争对手图森未来（TuSimple）和TRATON Group旗下Navistar International计划的2024年8级自动驾驶卡车上市。它还计划在2024年底开始在代驾车辆上使用Aurora Driver。\n去年12月，Uber与卡车制造商PACCAR和沃尔沃集团一起，作为战略投资者，收购了Aurora 26%的股权，以换取收购优步的自动驾驶汽车部门。根据这笔交易，当时的Aurora价值100亿美元。Aurora还与丰田在自动驾驶乘用车移动性方面建立了合作关系。\nAurora将通过此次合并SPAC筹集20亿美元资金。SPAC并购使得需要资金的初创企业获得大量现金，这对烧钱能力极强的自动驾驶公司来说非常及时。Aurora在2020年亏损2.14亿美元（其中1.79亿美元用于研发），而自那以来，现金消耗的速度一直在加快，仅2021年第一季度，这家初创公司就亏损了1.89亿美元（该季度的研发支出为1.59亿美元）。\n3\n其他自动驾驶卡车创企动向\nEmbark自动驾驶卡车\n在其他自动驾驶卡车创企中，Embark Trucks公司上个月同意与Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp.进行SPAC合并，企业价值45.5亿美元。智加科技（Plus）在5月份与Hennessy进行了SPAC合并，企业价值24.7亿美元。今年4月，图森未来（TuSimple）通过传统的IPO方式上市，目前的企业价值是109亿美元。\n智加科技自动驾驶卡车\n此次Aurora上市之后，将仅剩谷歌支持的Waymo和Kodiak Robotics这两家自动驾驶卡车公司尚未官宣上市。Waymo最近从现有投资者那里筹集了25亿美元的新资金，用于其自动打车业务和Waymo Via自动驾驶卡车业务。Kodiak公司则吸引了轮胎制造商普利司通美国公司（Bridgestone America）的一笔未公开的投资。\n4\n未来与挑战\n虽然自动驾驶卡车的商业模式很有吸引力，但将这一承诺变为现实，并实际解决L4级自动驾驶的复杂性是一个巨大的挑战。自动驾驶汽车的商业化远比几年前许多人预测的更具挑战性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RTP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145306268,"gmtCreate":1626188386154,"gmtModify":1633929218246,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好好哦","listText":"好好哦","text":"好好哦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145306268","repostId":"1150061108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150061108","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626187931,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150061108?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 22:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"宣布全员涨薪两个月！京东涨超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150061108","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二盘中京东股价拉升走强，现涨幅为5.4%，报77.15美元，暂成交5.28亿美元，最新总市值为1192.6亿美元。此前公司宣布全员涨薪两个月。\n\n13日，东哥刷屏了，一片好评。今日刚刚宣布全员涨薪两","content":"<p>周二盘中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>股价拉升走强，现涨幅为5.4%，报77.15美元，暂成交5.28亿美元，最新总市值为1192.6亿美元。此前公司宣布全员涨薪两个月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5dbb4c3c77cccbea0831fab75fb370\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>13日，东哥刷屏了，一片好评。今日刚刚宣布全员涨薪两个月，不得不说，刘强东对员工的确实在，不少网友表示，东子我想做你兄弟！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6466afb5a49f1a8f5817c3c474e644e5\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>京东宣布两年内加薪至16薪</b></p>\n<p>7月13日，京东集团宣布自2021年7月1日开始到2023年7月1日，用两年时间，将员工平均年薪由14薪逐步涨至16薪，在2021年7月1日之前的基础上直接涨薪两个月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a688abe07456f2ebb73312d1e8894f98\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>京东快递小哥收入有多少？</b></p>\n<p>公开数据显示，截至2021年一季度末，京东体系上市公司及非上市公司员工数约37万人；这其中，仅过去的一年间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>就为其24万一线员工支出了261亿元的薪酬福利，人均年支出近11万元，同时，京东也每年为员工缴纳包括商业险在内的六险一金，确保他们医有所保、老有所养。业内人士一致认为，京东为关注员工保障树立了行业标杆。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbed9624b108465c961ae6b3cce593c4\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据了解，京东一直秉承这样的经营理念 ：如果京东有机会赚一块钱，只拿走其中的七毛，要给合作伙伴多留三毛，剩下的七毛中的三毛五留给员工作为福利和激励，剩下的三毛五留给企业未来的发展。其中意思是说，把三毛留给合作伙伴，就是要让合作伙伴有创新发展的后劲；把三毛五留给团队，就是要让团队有拼搏的干劲。</p>\n<p>根据京东最新财报显示，今年一季度京东净收入为人民币2031.76亿元（约310亿美元），同比增长39%；净利润为人民币36.42亿元（6亿美元），去年同期为人民币11亿元。</p>\n<p>截至2021年3月31日，京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数近5亿，较2020年第一季度末大幅净增1.12亿，创历史最大同期增幅。</p>\n<p>此外，2020年全年京东净收入为7458亿元人民币，全年京东经营利润为123亿元，去年同期为90亿元。2020年Non-GAAP下经营利润为153亿元，归属于普通股东的净利润为494亿元。</p>\n<p><b>刘强东：京东一线员工收入足以支撑一个家庭的生计</b></p>\n<p>6月18日上午，京东集团董事局主席兼首席执行官刘强东发表了一封题为《心存敬畏 永葆情怀》的致股东信，其中提到，京东有20多万一线员工，他们中有80％都是来自于并不富裕的农村地区，他们用自己勤劳的双手创造着属于自己的幸福，而公司的责任，就为他们的这份幸福提供坚实的保障。2020年，京东物流集团对每位一线员工的年均支出近11万元，他们的收入足以支撑起一个家庭的生计，不仅在北京、上海、深圳这样大城市，我们在东北和西北省份的很多快递员月收入也能过万元。</p>\n<p>更早前，刘强东视察京东宿迁呼叫中心新建的员工宿舍楼。结果，当他看到所谓的高级单身公寓样板间，居然准备住四到六个人，卫生间还是那种蹲便器，而且跟淋浴放在一块，刘强东的自尊心被刺痛了。</p>\n<p>刘强东当场拍板：京东的员工宿舍，每间最多只能住两个人，工作满三年以上的员工，每人单独一个房间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201caeb51ec8a928726842d9721e5d86\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这位充满江湖义气的创业者喜欢称呼快递员为“兄弟”。年底他有宴请老员工的习惯，挨桌敬酒，iPad和iPhone 是常备礼物。他有一个梦想：退休时员工能说“他是一个好人”。</p>\n<p>刘强东也曾在央视放出豪言</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec387c4109fece77ba1c29786a1f6a8\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>网友评论</b></p>\n<p>互联网行业正在重新思考和定义员工及人才的价值。快手、字节跳动近期先后宣布取消大小周。今次京东开始启动涨薪计划，同样是力求留住并吸引更多高质量人才的加入。换言之，互联网人才争夺战正在进入新的阶段。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbd4f540b742e64bab6cc759b9551b9\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da5c64899b09a412be66f9f8a98893e4\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ece61a5a7440895cd6638a715e400bca\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>宣布全员涨薪两个月！京东涨超5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宣布全员涨薪两个月！京东涨超5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-13 22:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二盘中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>股价拉升走强，现涨幅为5.4%，报77.15美元，暂成交5.28亿美元，最新总市值为1192.6亿美元。此前公司宣布全员涨薪两个月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf5dbb4c3c77cccbea0831fab75fb370\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>13日，东哥刷屏了，一片好评。今日刚刚宣布全员涨薪两个月，不得不说，刘强东对员工的确实在，不少网友表示，东子我想做你兄弟！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6466afb5a49f1a8f5817c3c474e644e5\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>京东宣布两年内加薪至16薪</b></p>\n<p>7月13日，京东集团宣布自2021年7月1日开始到2023年7月1日，用两年时间，将员工平均年薪由14薪逐步涨至16薪，在2021年7月1日之前的基础上直接涨薪两个月。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a688abe07456f2ebb73312d1e8894f98\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>京东快递小哥收入有多少？</b></p>\n<p>公开数据显示，截至2021年一季度末，京东体系上市公司及非上市公司员工数约37万人；这其中，仅过去的一年间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>就为其24万一线员工支出了261亿元的薪酬福利，人均年支出近11万元，同时，京东也每年为员工缴纳包括商业险在内的六险一金，确保他们医有所保、老有所养。业内人士一致认为，京东为关注员工保障树立了行业标杆。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbed9624b108465c961ae6b3cce593c4\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据了解，京东一直秉承这样的经营理念 ：如果京东有机会赚一块钱，只拿走其中的七毛，要给合作伙伴多留三毛，剩下的七毛中的三毛五留给员工作为福利和激励，剩下的三毛五留给企业未来的发展。其中意思是说，把三毛留给合作伙伴，就是要让合作伙伴有创新发展的后劲；把三毛五留给团队，就是要让团队有拼搏的干劲。</p>\n<p>根据京东最新财报显示，今年一季度京东净收入为人民币2031.76亿元（约310亿美元），同比增长39%；净利润为人民币36.42亿元（6亿美元），去年同期为人民币11亿元。</p>\n<p>截至2021年3月31日，京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数近5亿，较2020年第一季度末大幅净增1.12亿，创历史最大同期增幅。</p>\n<p>此外，2020年全年京东净收入为7458亿元人民币，全年京东经营利润为123亿元，去年同期为90亿元。2020年Non-GAAP下经营利润为153亿元，归属于普通股东的净利润为494亿元。</p>\n<p><b>刘强东：京东一线员工收入足以支撑一个家庭的生计</b></p>\n<p>6月18日上午，京东集团董事局主席兼首席执行官刘强东发表了一封题为《心存敬畏 永葆情怀》的致股东信，其中提到，京东有20多万一线员工，他们中有80％都是来自于并不富裕的农村地区，他们用自己勤劳的双手创造着属于自己的幸福，而公司的责任，就为他们的这份幸福提供坚实的保障。2020年，京东物流集团对每位一线员工的年均支出近11万元，他们的收入足以支撑起一个家庭的生计，不仅在北京、上海、深圳这样大城市，我们在东北和西北省份的很多快递员月收入也能过万元。</p>\n<p>更早前，刘强东视察京东宿迁呼叫中心新建的员工宿舍楼。结果，当他看到所谓的高级单身公寓样板间，居然准备住四到六个人，卫生间还是那种蹲便器，而且跟淋浴放在一块，刘强东的自尊心被刺痛了。</p>\n<p>刘强东当场拍板：京东的员工宿舍，每间最多只能住两个人，工作满三年以上的员工，每人单独一个房间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201caeb51ec8a928726842d9721e5d86\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这位充满江湖义气的创业者喜欢称呼快递员为“兄弟”。年底他有宴请老员工的习惯，挨桌敬酒，iPad和iPhone 是常备礼物。他有一个梦想：退休时员工能说“他是一个好人”。</p>\n<p>刘强东也曾在央视放出豪言</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec387c4109fece77ba1c29786a1f6a8\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>网友评论</b></p>\n<p>互联网行业正在重新思考和定义员工及人才的价值。快手、字节跳动近期先后宣布取消大小周。今次京东开始启动涨薪计划，同样是力求留住并吸引更多高质量人才的加入。换言之，互联网人才争夺战正在进入新的阶段。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbd4f540b742e64bab6cc759b9551b9\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da5c64899b09a412be66f9f8a98893e4\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ece61a5a7440895cd6638a715e400bca\" tg-width=\"393\" tg-height=\"158\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028bf7c7eafdcd11c8df76a91d4805e0","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150061108","content_text":"周二盘中京东股价拉升走强，现涨幅为5.4%，报77.15美元，暂成交5.28亿美元，最新总市值为1192.6亿美元。此前公司宣布全员涨薪两个月。\n\n13日，东哥刷屏了，一片好评。今日刚刚宣布全员涨薪两个月，不得不说，刘强东对员工的确实在，不少网友表示，东子我想做你兄弟！\n\n京东宣布两年内加薪至16薪\n7月13日，京东集团宣布自2021年7月1日开始到2023年7月1日，用两年时间，将员工平均年薪由14薪逐步涨至16薪，在2021年7月1日之前的基础上直接涨薪两个月。\n\n京东快递小哥收入有多少？\n公开数据显示，截至2021年一季度末，京东体系上市公司及非上市公司员工数约37万人；这其中，仅过去的一年间，京东物流就为其24万一线员工支出了261亿元的薪酬福利，人均年支出近11万元，同时，京东也每年为员工缴纳包括商业险在内的六险一金，确保他们医有所保、老有所养。业内人士一致认为，京东为关注员工保障树立了行业标杆。\n\n据了解，京东一直秉承这样的经营理念 ：如果京东有机会赚一块钱，只拿走其中的七毛，要给合作伙伴多留三毛，剩下的七毛中的三毛五留给员工作为福利和激励，剩下的三毛五留给企业未来的发展。其中意思是说，把三毛留给合作伙伴，就是要让合作伙伴有创新发展的后劲；把三毛五留给团队，就是要让团队有拼搏的干劲。\n根据京东最新财报显示，今年一季度京东净收入为人民币2031.76亿元（约310亿美元），同比增长39%；净利润为人民币36.42亿元（6亿美元），去年同期为人民币11亿元。\n截至2021年3月31日，京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数近5亿，较2020年第一季度末大幅净增1.12亿，创历史最大同期增幅。\n此外，2020年全年京东净收入为7458亿元人民币，全年京东经营利润为123亿元，去年同期为90亿元。2020年Non-GAAP下经营利润为153亿元，归属于普通股东的净利润为494亿元。\n刘强东：京东一线员工收入足以支撑一个家庭的生计\n6月18日上午，京东集团董事局主席兼首席执行官刘强东发表了一封题为《心存敬畏 永葆情怀》的致股东信，其中提到，京东有20多万一线员工，他们中有80％都是来自于并不富裕的农村地区，他们用自己勤劳的双手创造着属于自己的幸福，而公司的责任，就为他们的这份幸福提供坚实的保障。2020年，京东物流集团对每位一线员工的年均支出近11万元，他们的收入足以支撑起一个家庭的生计，不仅在北京、上海、深圳这样大城市，我们在东北和西北省份的很多快递员月收入也能过万元。\n更早前，刘强东视察京东宿迁呼叫中心新建的员工宿舍楼。结果，当他看到所谓的高级单身公寓样板间，居然准备住四到六个人，卫生间还是那种蹲便器，而且跟淋浴放在一块，刘强东的自尊心被刺痛了。\n刘强东当场拍板：京东的员工宿舍，每间最多只能住两个人，工作满三年以上的员工，每人单独一个房间。\n\n这位充满江湖义气的创业者喜欢称呼快递员为“兄弟”。年底他有宴请老员工的习惯，挨桌敬酒，iPad和iPhone 是常备礼物。他有一个梦想：退休时员工能说“他是一个好人”。\n刘强东也曾在央视放出豪言\n\n网友评论\n互联网行业正在重新思考和定义员工及人才的价值。快手、字节跳动近期先后宣布取消大小周。今次京东开始启动涨薪计划，同样是力求留住并吸引更多高质量人才的加入。换言之，互联网人才争夺战正在进入新的阶段。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":142676209,"gmtCreate":1626149714201,"gmtModify":1633929621253,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142676209","repostId":"1185408592","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":148794191,"gmtCreate":1626014653813,"gmtModify":1633930911244,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你的婚礼","listText":"你的婚礼","text":"你的婚礼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148794191","repostId":"1155854665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":148795774,"gmtCreate":1626014602698,"gmtModify":1633930911466,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你的婚礼","listText":"你的婚礼","text":"你的婚礼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148795774","repostId":"1155854665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114557975,"gmtCreate":1623081801597,"gmtModify":1634037133781,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114557975","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114554091,"gmtCreate":1623081737813,"gmtModify":1634037134841,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can give me a nice day","listText":"Can give me a nice day","text":"Can give me a nice day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114554091","repostId":"1108033863","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115680539,"gmtCreate":1622985750121,"gmtModify":1634096405032,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ada BI hu","listText":"Ada BI hu","text":"Ada BI hu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115680539","repostId":"2141402879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141402879","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622942472,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2141402879?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 09:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于这家为 Square、DoorDash 等公司提供服务的金融科技公司，您需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141402879","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion\n","content":"<p>Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 在寻求筹集超过 10 亿美元的 IPO 后估值可能超过 120 亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c348141d4444464c736dce5633419\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"937\"><span>Square Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Square Inc. 去年占 Marqeta Inc. 收入的 70%；Marqeta 的发卡技术帮助 Square 向其 Cash App 客户提供借记卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能很快就会有一种新的方式来利用硅谷一些最热门公司背后的支付基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Companies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(DASH)$</a> to Affirm Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a> rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.</p><p><blockquote>从Instacart到DoorDash Inc.的公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(破折号)$</a>肯定控股公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a>例如，依靠卡支付来方便客户购买，允许送货员只支付订单中的商品。Marqeta Inc. 提供发卡技术，让企业能够构建这些功能，这家金融科技公司目前正在上市。</blockquote></p><p> Oakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州奥克兰的 Marqeta 成立于 2010 年，该公司表示，这是它为发行定制卡的做法注入了现代元素。该公司提供应用程序编程接口（API），使公司能够在构建虚拟和物理卡程序时利用 Marqeta 与银行和卡网络的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>广场公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(平方)$</a>是 Marqeta 最大的客户，依靠 Marqeta 技术为现金卡借记卡提供动力，让用户可以使用移动钱包中的资金。根据 Marqeta 在首次公开募股前向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书，Marqeta 还启用了一项功能，允许 Square 的现金应用程序用户直接从雇主或政府接收存款。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 希望通过 IPO 发行约 4500 万股 A 类股票，每股定价为 20 至 24 美元，而创始人兼首席执行官杰森·加德纳 (Jason Gardner) 以及早期投资者将获得 10 倍投票权的 B 类股票。该公司将在拟议范围的上限筹集近 11 亿美元，同时获得超过 120 亿美元的估值。以高盛和摩根大通为首的承销商可以额外获得 680 万股股票。Marqeta 预计将在纳斯达克交易所上市，股票代码为 MQ。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.</p><p><blockquote>在 Marqeta 发行股票之前，您需要了解以下五件事，该公司预计将于 6 月 9 日开始交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling revenue, but still in the red</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入翻倍，但仍处于亏损状态</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年的净收入为 2.903 亿美元，是该公司去年同期 1.433 亿美元的两倍多。2021 年第一季度，Marqeta 的收入从 4840 万美元增至 1.08 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上一财年亏损有所收窄，但该公司仍在亏损。Marqeta 2020年净亏损4770万美元，而2019年亏损5820万美元。Marqeta 在 2021 年第一季度亏损 1280 万美元，而去年同期亏损 1450 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的总处理量（即通过其平台处理的支付的美元价值）在第一季度增长了 167%，达到 240 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Squarely its biggest customer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完全是它最大的客户</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta高度依赖Square，Square占公司去年净收入的70%，2021年第一季度净收入的73%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管我们预计来自最大客户的净收入占我们总净收入的百分比将随着时间的推移而下降，因为我们从其他客户那里产生了更多的净收入，但我们预计来自相对较小的客户群的净收入将继续占我们短期内净收入的很大一部分，”该公司在招股说明书中列出的风险因素中指出。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“看到一家公司上市时拥有如此多的业务，这是前所未有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>客户，”451 Research 首席分析师 Jordan McKee 告诉 MarketWatch。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year periods after that.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的 Cash App 合同期将于 2024 年 3 月结束，其 Square Card（一种面向企业的独立产品）的合同将于 2024 年 12 月到期。两份协议均可自动续期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-之后的几年。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein 分析师 Harshita Rawat 认为 Square 将业务转移到另一个发卡平台的风险很小，因为提供这项技术的其他公司是 Square 在其他业务领域竞争的公司。她认为，更大的长期风险是 Square 在内部开发发卡能力。</blockquote></p><p> \"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然很难明确地说 Square 是否正在考虑构建内部解决方案，但我们认为 Stripe 和 Adyen 具有优先权，因此这种客户集中风险应该纳入 Marqeta 的估值中，”拉瓦特写道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迎接竞争</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Marqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a> and Fiserv Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a> as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 承认，这是一个竞争激烈的市场，因为该公司将与 Global Payments Inc. 等更传统的参与者展开竞争。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a>和 Fiserv 公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a>以及 Stripe 和 Adyen NV 等“新兴提供商”。</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，更老派的金融服务参与者“没有足够的能力和上市速度来在新时代的发行人市场中有效竞争”，尽管她“正在密切关注 Stripe，将其视为 Marqeta 最强大的竞争对手之一随着时间的推移。”Stripe与商家有现有的关系，也有更“现成”的产品。</blockquote></p><p> While Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Rawat 强调 Stripe 更通用的产品对该公司来说可能是一个好处，而 Marqeta 拥有更可定制的产品，但 Jefferies 分析师 Trevor Williams 在多次行业对话（包括与前 Marqeta 产品副总裁）后，有了不同的看法。Williams 指出定制选项是 Marqeta 的优势，并表示迁移到新平台的转换成本很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的专家认为，除非 Marqeta 满足业务需求，否则不太可能进行转换，”他写道，并引用了“管理转换所需的工程资源，特别是如果卡产品不是客户的核心产品（例如 DoorDash 不依赖于交换）。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 分析师 Rohit Kulkarni 写道，新贵金融科技竞争对手拥有“类似但可以说不太复杂的产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About interchange</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于交换</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的大部分收入来自交换费，交换费是当客户使用信用卡或借记卡进行交易时，商业银行向发卡银行支付的费用。Marqeta 在其招股说明书中指出：“我们与发卡银行的协议规定，我们将收取 100% 的交换费来处理客户的卡交易。”</blockquote></p><p> Card networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>卡网络设定交换费，但2010年的德宾修正案限制了借记交换。然而，一些较小的银行不受德宾限制的约束，根据该公司的招股说明书，Marqeta“目前仅在我们提供项目管理服务时与不受德宾修正案约束的发行银行签订合同”。</blockquote></p><p> \"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and &gt;2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，消费者和商业卡交易（Marqeta 通过其不同的产品进行这两种交易）的德宾豁免交换 [百分比] 对于消费者来说可能平均为 1.4%（范围很广，具体取决于交易类型）和 &gt;2% 用于商业支出，”伯恩斯坦的拉瓦特写道。“这与德宾监管交易的平均交换率为 0.5% 形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"</p><p><blockquote>Rawat 认为，Marqeta 与 Durbin 豁免发行人的合作有助于该公司产生比与大型非豁免发行银行合作的更传统合作伙伴更高的收入“收益率”，这意味着该公司可以保留更大份额的收入。虽然她表示投资者应该监控豁免规则潜在变化的风险，但她也写道，“监管机构或政府似乎不愿意废除德宾豁免，也不愿意让金融科技公司或科技巨头更难从中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A big market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年处理了约 600 亿美元的交易量，根据支付行业出版物 Nilson Report 的估计，该公司指出，这还不到同期美国发行商 6.7 万亿美元交易量的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书中表示：“我们相信，由于我们独特的平台、竞争优势和强大的创新文化，我们在这一巨大机遇中的份额将继续增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，Marqeta 的“增长跑道是巨大的”。她认为，进一步的机会包括更大的国际扩张和最近启动的信贷处理计划的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarqeta IPO: 5 things to know about the fintech company serving Square, DoorDash and others<blockquote>Marqeta IPO：关于这家为 Square、DoorDash 等公司提供服务的金融科技公司，您需要了解的 5 件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 09:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 在寻求筹集超过 10 亿美元的 IPO 后估值可能超过 120 亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c348141d4444464c736dce5633419\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"937\"><span>Square Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Square Inc. 去年占 Marqeta Inc. 收入的 70%；Marqeta 的发卡技术帮助 Square 向其 Cash App 客户提供借记卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能很快就会有一种新的方式来利用硅谷一些最热门公司背后的支付基础设施。</blockquote></p><p> Companies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(DASH)$</a> to Affirm Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a> rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.</p><p><blockquote>从Instacart到DoorDash Inc.的公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$(破折号)$</a>肯定控股公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$(AFRM)$</a>例如，依靠卡支付来方便客户购买，允许送货员只支付订单中的商品。Marqeta Inc. 提供发卡技术，让企业能够构建这些功能，这家金融科技公司目前正在上市。</blockquote></p><p> Oakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州奥克兰的 Marqeta 成立于 2010 年，该公司表示，这是它为发行定制卡的做法注入了现代元素。该公司提供应用程序编程接口（API），使公司能够在构建虚拟和物理卡程序时利用 Marqeta 与银行和卡网络的关系。</blockquote></p><p> Square Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(SQ)$</a> is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>广场公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$(平方)$</a>是 Marqeta 最大的客户，依靠 Marqeta 技术为现金卡借记卡提供动力，让用户可以使用移动钱包中的资金。根据 Marqeta 在首次公开募股前向美国证券交易委员会提交的招股说明书，Marqeta 还启用了一项功能，允许 Square 的现金应用程序用户直接从雇主或政府接收存款。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 希望通过 IPO 发行约 4500 万股 A 类股票，每股定价为 20 至 24 美元，而创始人兼首席执行官杰森·加德纳 (Jason Gardner) 以及早期投资者将获得 10 倍投票权的 B 类股票。该公司将在拟议范围的上限筹集近 11 亿美元，同时获得超过 120 亿美元的估值。以高盛和摩根大通为首的承销商可以额外获得 680 万股股票。Marqeta 预计将在纳斯达克交易所上市，股票代码为 MQ。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.</p><p><blockquote>在 Marqeta 发行股票之前，您需要了解以下五件事，该公司预计将于 6 月 9 日开始交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling revenue, but still in the red</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入翻倍，但仍处于亏损状态</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年的净收入为 2.903 亿美元，是该公司去年同期 1.433 亿美元的两倍多。2021 年第一季度，Marqeta 的收入从 4840 万美元增至 1.08 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上一财年亏损有所收窄，但该公司仍在亏损。Marqeta 2020年净亏损4770万美元，而2019年亏损5820万美元。Marqeta 在 2021 年第一季度亏损 1280 万美元，而去年同期亏损 1450 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的总处理量（即通过其平台处理的支付的美元价值）在第一季度增长了 167%，达到 240 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Squarely its biggest customer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完全是它最大的客户</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta高度依赖Square，Square占公司去年净收入的70%，2021年第一季度净收入的73%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管我们预计来自最大客户的净收入占我们总净收入的百分比将随着时间的推移而下降，因为我们从其他客户那里产生了更多的净收入，但我们预计来自相对较小的客户群的净收入将继续占我们短期内净收入的很大一部分，”该公司在招股说明书中列出的风险因素中指出。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“看到一家公司上市时拥有如此多的业务，这是前所未有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>客户，”451 Research 首席分析师 Jordan McKee 告诉 MarketWatch。</blockquote></p><p> Marqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year periods after that.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的 Cash App 合同期将于 2024 年 3 月结束，其 Square Card（一种面向企业的独立产品）的合同将于 2024 年 12 月到期。两份协议均可自动续期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-之后的几年。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>Bernstein 分析师 Harshita Rawat 认为 Square 将业务转移到另一个发卡平台的风险很小，因为提供这项技术的其他公司是 Square 在其他业务领域竞争的公司。她认为，更大的长期风险是 Square 在内部开发发卡能力。</blockquote></p><p> \"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然很难明确地说 Square 是否正在考虑构建内部解决方案，但我们认为 Stripe 和 Adyen 具有优先权，因此这种客户集中风险应该纳入 Marqeta 的估值中，”拉瓦特写道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meet the competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>迎接竞争</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Marqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a> and Fiserv Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a> as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 承认，这是一个竞争激烈的市场，因为该公司将与 Global Payments Inc. 等更传统的参与者展开竞争。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPN\">$(GPN)$</a>和 Fiserv 公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISV\">$(FISV)$</a>以及 Stripe 和 Adyen NV 等“新兴提供商”。</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，更老派的金融服务参与者“没有足够的能力和上市速度来在新时代的发行人市场中有效竞争”，尽管她“正在密切关注 Stripe，将其视为 Marqeta 最强大的竞争对手之一随着时间的推移。”Stripe与商家有现有的关系，也有更“现成”的产品。</blockquote></p><p> While Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Rawat 强调 Stripe 更通用的产品对该公司来说可能是一个好处，而 Marqeta 拥有更可定制的产品，但 Jefferies 分析师 Trevor Williams 在多次行业对话（包括与前 Marqeta 产品副总裁）后，有了不同的看法。Williams 指出定制选项是 Marqeta 的优势，并表示迁移到新平台的转换成本很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的专家认为，除非 Marqeta 满足业务需求，否则不太可能进行转换，”他写道，并引用了“管理转换所需的工程资源，特别是如果卡产品不是客户的核心产品（例如 DoorDash 不依赖于交换）。”</blockquote></p><p> MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"</p><p><blockquote>MKM Partners 分析师 Rohit Kulkarni 写道，新贵金融科技竞争对手拥有“类似但可以说不太复杂的产品”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About interchange</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于交换</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 的大部分收入来自交换费，交换费是当客户使用信用卡或借记卡进行交易时，商业银行向发卡银行支付的费用。Marqeta 在其招股说明书中指出：“我们与发卡银行的协议规定，我们将收取 100% 的交换费来处理客户的卡交易。”</blockquote></p><p> Card networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>卡网络设定交换费，但2010年的德宾修正案限制了借记交换。然而，一些较小的银行不受德宾限制的约束，根据该公司的招股说明书，Marqeta“目前仅在我们提供项目管理服务时与不受德宾修正案约束的发行银行签订合同”。</blockquote></p><p> \"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and &gt;2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，消费者和商业卡交易（Marqeta 通过其不同的产品进行这两种交易）的德宾豁免交换 [百分比] 对于消费者来说可能平均为 1.4%（范围很广，具体取决于交易类型）和 &gt;2% 用于商业支出，”伯恩斯坦的拉瓦特写道。“这与德宾监管交易的平均交换率为 0.5% 形成鲜明对比。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"</p><p><blockquote>Rawat 认为，Marqeta 与 Durbin 豁免发行人的合作有助于该公司产生比与大型非豁免发行银行合作的更传统合作伙伴更高的收入“收益率”，这意味着该公司可以保留更大份额的收入。虽然她表示投资者应该监控豁免规则潜在变化的风险，但她也写道，“监管机构或政府似乎不愿意废除德宾豁免，也不愿意让金融科技公司或科技巨头更难从中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A big market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 去年处理了约 600 亿美元的交易量，根据支付行业出版物 Nilson Report 的估计，该公司指出，这还不到同期美国发行商 6.7 万亿美元交易量的 1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在招股说明书中表示：“我们相信，由于我们独特的平台、竞争优势和强大的创新文化，我们在这一巨大机遇中的份额将继续增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Rawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.</p><p><blockquote>拉瓦特写道，Marqeta 的“增长跑道是巨大的”。她认为，进一步的机会包括更大的国际扩张和最近启动的信贷处理计划的进展。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marqeta-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-fintech-company-serving-square-doordash-and-others-11622828431?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marqeta-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-fintech-company-serving-square-doordash-and-others-11622828431?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141402879","content_text":"Marqeta could be valued at more than $12 billion after IPO that seeks to raise more than $1 billion\nSquare Inc. accounted for 70% of Marqeta Inc.'s revenue last year; Marqeta's card-issuing technology helps Square offer debit cards to its Cash App customers.\nInvestors could soon have a new way to play the payments infrastructure behind some of Silicon Valley's hottest companies.\nCompanies from Instacart to DoorDash Inc. $(DASH)$ to Affirm Holdings Inc. $(AFRM)$ rely on card payments to facilitate customer purchases, allowing delivery workers to pay for just the items in orders, for instance. Marqeta Inc. offers card-issuing technology that lets businesses build out these functions, and the financial technology company is now in the process of going public.\nOakland, Calif.-based Marqeta, which was incorporated in 2010, says that's it putting a modern spin on the practice of issuing customized cards. The company offers application programming interfaces, or APIs, that let companies leverage Marqeta's relationships with banks and card networks while building out virtual and physical card programs.\nSquare Inc. $(SQ)$ is Marqeta's largest customer, relying on Marqeta technology to power Cash Card debit cards that let users spend the funds from their mobile wallets. Marqeta also enables a function that lets Square's Cash App users receive direct deposits from employers or the government, according to the prospectus Marqeta filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ahead of its initial public offering.\nMarqeta is looking to offer about 45 million Class A shares priced at $20 to $24 apiece through its IPO, while founder and Chief Executive Jason Gardner, as well as early investors, receive class B shares with 10 times the voting power. The company would raise almost $1.1 billion at the high end of that proposed range while fetching a valuation over $12 billion. Underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have access to an additional 6.8 million shares. Marqeta expects to list on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol MQ.\nHere are five things to know about Marqeta ahead of offering its shares, which are expected to begin trading on June 9.\nDoubling revenue, but still in the red\nMarqeta generated net revenue of $290.3 million last year, more than double the $143.3 million that the company recorded a year earlier. For the first quarter of 2021, Marqeta saw revenue rise to $108.0 million from $48.4 million.\nThe company is still losing money, though losses narrowed in the last fiscal year. Marqeta posted a net loss of $47.7 million in 2020, compared with a loss of $58.2 million in 2019. Marqeta lost $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2021, compared with $14.5 million in the comparable period a year prior.\nMarqeta's total processing volume, or the dollar value of payments processed through its platform, increased 167% in the first quarter to reach $24 billion.\nSquarely its biggest customer\nMarqeta is highly reliant on Square, which accounted for 70% of the company's net revenue last year and 73% of its net revenue in the first quarter of 2021.\n\"Although we expect the net revenue from our largest customer will decrease over time as a percentage of our total net revenue as we generate more net revenue from other customers, we expect that net revenue from a relatively small group of customers will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue in the near term,\" the company notes among the risk factors listed in its prospectus.\n\"It's unprecedented to see a company going public with that much of business coming from one customer,\" Jordan McKee, a principal analyst at 451 Research, told MarketWatch.\nMarqeta's Cash App contract term ends in March 2024, and its contract for the Square Card -- a separate product meant for businesses -- expires in December 2024. Both agreements can automatically renew for successive one-year periods after that.\nBernstein analyst Harshita Rawat sees little risk that Square moves its business to another card-issuing platform, since the other companies offering this technology are those Square competes with in other areas of its business. The bigger long-term risk is that Square develops card-issuing capabilities in-house, in her view.\n\"While it is very hard to definitively say whether Square is considering building an in-house solution or not ---- we believe precedence exists with Stripe and Adyen, and as such this customer-concentration risk should be baked into Marqeta's valuation,\" Rawat wrote.\nMeet the competition\nMarqeta concedes that it's in a competitive market, as the company goes up against more traditional players like Global Payments Inc. $(GPN)$ and Fiserv Inc. $(FISV)$ as well as \"emerging providers\" like Stripe and Adyen NV .\nRawat wrote that the more old-school financial-services players \"don't have adequate capabilities and speed-to-market to compete effectively in new-age issuer market,\" though she's \"closely watching Stripe as one of the most formidable competitors for Marqeta over time.\" Stripe has existing relationships with merchants as well as a more \"off-the-shelf\" product.\nWhile Rawat highlighted Stripe's more generalized offering as a possible benefit for that company relative to Marqeta, which has a more customizable product, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams saw things differently after a number of industry conversations, including with a former Marqeta product vice president. Williams pointed to the customization options as an advantage for Marqeta and said that there are high switching costs of moving to a new platform.\n\"Our expert believes switches are unlikely unless a business need is not being met by Marqeta,\" he wrote, citing the \"engineering resources needed to manage a conversion, especially if card products are noncore for the customer (e.g. DoorDash isn't dependent on interchange).\"\nMKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni wrote that the upstart fintech competitors have \"similar but arguably less sophisticated offerings.\"\nAbout interchange\nMarqeta generates most of its revenue from interchange fees, which are fees that merchant banks pay card-issuing banks when a customer makes a transaction with a credit or debit card. \"Our agreements with issuing banks provide that we receive 100% of the interchange fees for processing our customer's card transactions,\" Marqeta notes it its prospectus.\nCard networks set interchange fees, but the Durbin Amendment in 2010 capped debit interchange. Some smaller banks are exempt from the Durbin limits, however, and Marqeta \"currently only contract[s] with issuing banks that are exempt from the Durbin Amendment when we provide program management services,\" according to the company's prospectus.\n\"In a nutshell, Durbin-exempt interchange [percentage] across consumer and commercial card transactions (both of which Marqeta is exposed to through its different offerings) is likely 1.4% average for consumer (there is a wide range depending on the type of transaction) and >2% for commercial spend,\" Bernstein's Rawat wrote. \"This is in contrast to 0.5% average interchange for Durbin-regulated transactions.\"\nRawat believes that Marqeta's work with Durbin-exempt issuers helps the company generate higher revenue \"yields\" than more traditional partners that work with larger, nonexempt issuing banks, meaning that the company can keep a greater portion of volume as revenue. While she said that investors should monitor the risk of potential changes to exemption rules, she also wrote that \"there doesn't appear to be a willingness by the regulators or government to repeal Durbin exemption or make it harder for fintechs or tech giants to benefit from this.\"\nA big market\nMarqeta processed about $60 billion of volume last year, which it notes is less than 1% of the $6.7 trillion of volume that flowed through U.S. issuers in the same period, based on estimates from The Nilson Report, a payments-industry publication.\n\"We believe that our share of this massive opportunity will continue to increase due to our unique platform, competitive advantages, and a strong culture of innovation,\" the company said in its prospectus.\nRawat wrote that Marqeta's \"growth runway is immense.\" Further opportunities include greater international expansion and progress with recently launched credit-processing initiatives, in her view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MQ":0.9,"DASH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115617435,"gmtCreate":1622985688327,"gmtModify":1634096405497,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115617435","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115617697,"gmtCreate":1622985652319,"gmtModify":1634096405856,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115617697","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115617978,"gmtCreate":1622985633394,"gmtModify":1634096406197,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115617978","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZME":"掌门教育","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BZ":"BOSS直聘","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZ":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,"MQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,"TASK":0.9,"DIBS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZME":0.9,"LFST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116747786,"gmtCreate":1622821295745,"gmtModify":1634097634449,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116747786","repostId":"2140540596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116742507,"gmtCreate":1622821125409,"gmtModify":1634097637098,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116742507","repostId":"2140540596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116742069,"gmtCreate":1622821088351,"gmtModify":1634097637338,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116742069","repostId":"2140540596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":137363202,"gmtCreate":1622301205206,"gmtModify":1634102434754,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like+comment [Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Like+comment [Smile]&nbsp;","text":"Like+comment [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137363202","repostId":"2138488929","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115617697,"gmtCreate":1622985652319,"gmtModify":1634096405856,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115617697","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并且可能会让ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116768045,"gmtCreate":1622819774887,"gmtModify":1634097657879,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116768045","repostId":"1153560369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153560369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622817697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153560369?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Lucid Motors Or Fisker The Better EV Stock To Buy?<blockquote>Lucid Motors 还是 Fisker 是更值得购买的电动汽车股票？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153560369","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nElectric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sale","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth of 43% year-over-year observed in 2020.</li>  <li>Europe is expected to have more than 300 EV models by 2025, while the U.S. is expected to have more than 130 EV models by 2026.</li>  <li>Two of the up-and-coming EV startups include Lucid Motors and Fisker, both California-based with production and delivery expected by the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively.</li>  <li>We believe both companies are undervalued at the moment, with significant upside potential of more than 150%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5b427058aa1c9aea96553593b7ed1e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Photo by domin_domin/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车（「EV」）近年来成为焦点，二零二零年的销量同比强劲增长43%。</li><li>到 2025 年，欧洲预计将拥有 300 多款电动汽车车型，而到 2026 年，美国预计将拥有 130 多款电动汽车车型。</li><li>两家新兴的电动汽车初创公司包括 Lucid Motors 和 Fisker，这两家公司都位于加利福尼亚州，预计分别于 2021 年底和 2022 年底开始生产和交付。</li><li>我们认为两家公司目前都被低估，上涨潜力超过 150%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由domin_domin/E+提供，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth observed in 2020 despite a slump in global automotive sales due to COVID-related impacts. Instead of being overshadowed by the on-and-off lockdowns and lingering wariness of economic uncertainty, global EV sales continued its growth momentum in 2020,rising 43% year-over-year&nbsp;while overall automotive sales dropped by 20%. The evolving consumer sentiment on EVs resulting from increasing affordability and practicality thanks to technological advancements, combined with government intervention through subsidies and climate change policies are expected to supercharge the EV sales figures further within the decade; EV sales are expected to exceed 31.1 million units and represent 32% of global new car sales by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车（「EV」）成为人们关注的焦点，尽管全球汽车销量因新冠疫情相关影响而下滑，但二零二零年的销量仍呈现强劲增长。2020年，全球电动汽车销量没有受到断断续续的封锁和对经济不确定性的挥之不去的警惕的影响，而是继续保持增长势头，同比增长43%，而整体汽车销量下降20%。由于技术进步，消费者对电动汽车的负担能力和实用性不断提高，加上政府通过补贴和气候变化政策进行干预，预计将在十年内进一步推高电动汽车的销售数据；到2030年，电动汽车销量预计将超过3110万辆，占全球新车销量的32%。</blockquote></p><p> The next decade will be an era of electrification with significant opportunities for the sector as EVs take the center stage. The European Federation for Transport and Environment predicts&nbsp;more than 300 available EV models&nbsp;within the European automotive market by 2025, while the IHS Markit predicts more than&nbsp;130 available EV models in the U.S. by 2026.</p><p><blockquote>未来十年将是电气化时代，随着电动汽车占据中心舞台，该行业将面临巨大机遇。欧洲运输与环境联合会预测，到 2025 年，欧洲汽车市场将有 300 多款电动汽车车型可用，而 IHS Markit 预测，到 2026 年，美国将有 130 多款电动汽车车型可用。</blockquote></p><p> Two of the up and coming brands to break into the U.S. and European EV market include Lucid Motors ((NYSE:CCIV)or “Lucid”) and Fisker(NYSE:FSR). The two California-based companies have already debuted their respective flagship vehicles with reservations now open; initial deliveries are expected in late 2021 for Lucid and late 2022 for Fisker. In addition to their astonishing vehicles, both stock picks have also been showstoppers in the latest tech rally, with share prices peaking at 187% for Fisker and 480% for Lucid since their respective IPO and pre-IPO announcements.</p><p><blockquote>打入美国和欧洲电动汽车市场的两个新兴品牌包括 Lucid Motors（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCIV）或 “Lucid”）和 Fisker（纽约证券交易所股票代码：FSR）。这两家总部位于加利福尼亚州的公司已经推出了各自的旗舰车型，现已开放预订；Lucid 预计将于 2021 年底首次交付，Fisker 预计将于 2022 年底首次交付。除了令人惊叹的车辆之外，这两只股票还在最新的科技股反弹中大放异彩，自各自发布 IPO 和 IPO 前公告以来，Fisker 的股价分别达到 187% 和 Lucid 的股价达到 480% 的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d67f9efb3fba9a363fca7f11f130a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\"><span>Source:fiskerinc.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：fiskerinc.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Launched in 2016, the Southern California-based EV maker builds its brand on the mission to provide a “clean future for all” by creating the “world’s most emotional and sustainable vehicles”. The company is currently led by co-founders Henrik Fisker and Dr. Geeta Gupta-Fisker, alongside a strong executive team with years of industry experience in their respective trades. Henrik Fisker is best known for his disruptive designs within the luxury car sector for notable brands including BMW and Aston Martin. Prior to launching Fisker Inc., Henrik Fisker co-founded “Fisker Automotive”, which was best known for producing the world’s first luxury hybrid supercar, Fisker Karma, before its demise in 2012 due to bankruptcy. Giving the fast-changing sector another shot, the car designer has returned to the arena this time with the lessons from his past experience and an innovative business model – the “asset-lean” approach.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于南加州的电动汽车制造商于 2016 年推出，其品牌宗旨是通过打造 “世界上最具情感和可持续的汽车 ”，为所有人提供 “清洁未来 ”。该公司目前由联合创始人 Henrik Fisker 和 Geeta Gupta-Fisker 博士领导，以及一支在各自行业拥有多年行业经验的强大执行团队。亨里克·菲斯克最出名的是他在豪华汽车领域为宝马和阿斯顿·马丁等知名品牌进行的颠覆性设计。在创办菲斯克公司之前，亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）与人共同创办了 “菲斯克汽车 ”公司，该公司因生产世界上第一辆豪华混合动力超级跑车菲斯克-卡玛（Fisker Karma）而闻名，但在 2012 年因破产而倒闭。这位汽车设计师这次带着过去的经验教训和创新的商业模式--“资产精益 ”方法--重返赛场，为快速变化的行业注入了新的活力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The “Asset-Lean Approach”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“资产精益方法”</b></blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s asset-lean approach entails outsourcing the business components where differentiation is deemed non-essential, including platform engineering, production and assembly, the charging network, and other fleet management services. The business model will not only allow the company to significantly shorten the typical timeline of 60 months, from concept to delivery, to&nbsp;29 months, but also enable greater capital deployment towards areas critical to customer experience, including design, software, user interface, and advanced driver-assistance systems (“ADAS”). The lowered costs achieved through this business model will also enable Fisker to keep the prices of their vehicles at an affordable range without compromising on quality.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 的资产精益方法需要将差异化视为非必要的业务组成部分外包，包括平台工程、生产和组装、充电网络和其他车队管理服务。该商业模式不仅将使该公司从概念到交付的 60 个月的典型时间表大幅缩短至 29 个月，而且还可以将更多资金部署到对客户体验至关重要的领域，包括设计、软件、用户界面和高级驾驶员辅助系统 (“ADAS”)。通过这种商业模式实现的降低成本也将使菲斯克能够在不影响质量的情况下将车辆价格保持在可承受的范围内。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fisker’s flagship model will be the&nbsp;Fisker Ocean SUV, which is expected to begin production on November 17, 2022 with initial deliveries to be made across Europe and the U.S. before the end next year. As part of the brand’s asset-lean mandate, Fisker has forged a&nbsp;Partnership with Magna Steyr(“Magna”) to co-engineer and produce the Fisker Ocean. The two companies are currently collaborating to create a unique “FM29” platform that will be used as the foundation for their flagship SUV, as well as at least one other Fisker model. By leveraging Magna’s existing technology and established manufacturing facilities, the EV maker will be able to accelerate the timeline of bringing their vehicle to market, while also reducing vehicle development costs. The cross-compatible platform will also allow Fisker to achieve volume pricing on supplies with quality vendors, thus further reducing the costs of building its vehicles to both increase affordability for customers while boosting margins for the company. The Fisker Ocean will be selling at a low entry price of $37,499, with the most premium trims offered at $69,900; combined with a driving range of up to 350 miles, the all-electric SUV trumps its peers within the price category, whose average travel range&nbsp;sits around 250 miles. The Fisker Ocean is aiming to become a “premium with volume” model, with anticipated productions of more than 100,000 units per year.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 的旗舰车型将是 Fisker Ocean SUV，预计将于 2022 年 11 月 17 日开始生产，明年年底前将在欧洲和美国进行首批交付。作为品牌精益资产使命的一部分，菲斯克与麦格纳斯太尔（“麦格纳”）建立了合作伙伴关系，共同设计和生产菲斯克海洋。两家公司目前正在合作打造一个独特的 “FM29 ”平台，该平台将作为其旗舰 SUV 以及至少一款其他菲斯克车型的基础。通过利用麦格纳现有的技术和已建立的制造设施，这家电动汽车制造商将能够加快将汽车推向市场的时间表，同时降低汽车开发成本。交叉兼容平台还将使 Fisker 能够与优质供应商实现供应的批量定价，从而进一步降低车辆制造成本，既提高客户的负担能力，又提高公司的利润率。Fisker Ocean 的入门价格为 37,499 美元，最高级的车型售价为 69,900 美元；结合高达350英里的行驶里程，这款全电动SUV在平均行驶里程约为250英里的同价位车型中脱颖而出。Fisker Ocean 的目标是成为 “高端销量 ”车型，预计年产量将超过 10 万辆。</blockquote></p><p> A similar approach is also applied to the development and production of their second model,PEAR. Fisker has entered into an&nbsp;agreement with Foxconn– widely known for their production of iPhones in collaboration with Apple – to engineer and produce a brand-new platform for the revolutionary vehicle at a sub-$30,000 price tag. Model details are currently limited, but the new model is expected to feature a unique design and revolutionary experience that will differentiate it from any existing segment of EVs. PEAR’s start of production is slated for Q4 2023, with initial full-year productions expected to hit 250,000 units. The vehicle will first roll out in the U.S. with further expansion into the Chinese, European and Indian markets.</p><p><blockquote>类似的方法也应用于他们的第二个模型PEAR的开发和生产。菲斯克已经与富士康达成协议——富士康以与苹果合作生产iPhone而闻名——为这款革命性车辆设计和生产一个全新的平台，价格低于3万美元。目前车型细节有限，但新车型预计将采用独特的设计和革命性的体验，使其有别于任何现有的电动汽车细分市场。PEAR 计划于 2023 年第四季度开始生产，初步全年产量预计将达到 25 万辆。该车将首先在美国推出，并进一步扩展到中国、欧洲和印度市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inherent Risks of Fisker’s Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克商业模式的固有风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Significant Reliance on Production Partners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>严重依赖生产合作伙伴</b></blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s business model entails outsourcing a part of their engineering and production processes to third-parties. The company’s substantial reliance on their relationships with third-party manufacturers and suppliers subjects them to significant risks with respect to operations, such as delays caused by quality control issues or capacity constraints. Magna Steyr currently produces for established auto brands including&nbsp;BMW, Daimler, and Jaguar Land Rover. With annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 vehicles, adding Fisker to their production line would mean 50,000 units allocated to each partner of Magna’s on average. Considering Fisker’s call for annual productions of 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean, Magna may be required to drop one of its existing partners, reduce production levels for other customers, or invest in extending their production capacity to meet the performance targets, resulting in high opportunity costs for the manufacturing giant. In order to incentivize their production partner for success of the Ocean program and mitigate the risk of delays caused by capacity constraints, Fisker has offered Magna a 6% stake in the company, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the 2020 10K).</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的商业模式需要将部分工程和生产流程外包给第三方。公司严重依赖与第三方制造商和供应商的关系，这使他们在运营方面面临重大风险，如质量控制问题或产能限制导致的延误。麦格纳斯太尔目前为宝马、戴姆勒和捷豹路虎等知名汽车品牌生产产品。菲斯克的年产能约为 20 万辆，如果将菲斯克加入他们的生产线，麦格纳的每个合作伙伴平均将获得 5 万辆。考虑到菲斯克年产 10 万辆菲斯克海洋的看涨期权，麦格纳可能需要放弃其现有合作伙伴之一，降低其他客户的生产水平，或投资扩大其产能以实现业绩目标，从而给这家制造巨头带来高昂的机会成本。为了激励其生产合作伙伴使海洋计划取得成功，并降低因产能限制而造成的延误风险，菲斯克向麦格纳提供了该公司 6% 的股份，可通过实现 “相互关联的业绩条件 ”来行使（2020 年 10K 第 97 页）。</blockquote></p><p> The same risks apply to Fisker’s partnership with Foxconn to produce PEAR. Foxconn has no prior experience in the manufacturing process of vehicles, which subjects Fisker to potential risks related to quality control and delays. Foxconn is one of the many existing manufacturing industry veterans who have recently started to tap into the OEM opportunities within the growing EV sector. The electronics manufacturer plans to convert its idle plant in Wisconsin to facilitate their EV production ambitions. While Fisker intends to leverage Foxconn’s manufacturing expertise, Foxconn seeks to utilize the experience from producing Fisker’s EVs to&nbsp;pave its way into the larger EV market, with plans to produce EVs for other companies using the same platform in the long-run. Despite Foxconn’s lack of experience in EV production, the partners hope to take advantage of their “minimal automotive legacy to enable a full clean-sheet approach in all aspects”, and compete against experienced car manufacturers who may be restricted by the burden of existing contracts.</p><p><blockquote>同样的风险也适用于菲斯克与富士康合作生产梨。富士康此前在车辆制造过程中没有经验，这使得菲斯克面临与质量控制和延误相关的潜在风险。富士康是众多现有制造业资深人士之一，他们最近开始利用不断增长的电动汽车行业的 OEM 机会。这家电子制造商计划改造其位于威斯康星州的闲置工厂，以实现其电动汽车生产雄心。菲斯克打算利用富士康的制造专业知识，而富士康则寻求利用生产菲斯克电动汽车的经验，为进入更大的电动汽车市场铺平道路，并计划从长远来看为其他使用相同平台的公司生产电动汽车。尽管富士康在电动汽车生产方面缺乏经验，但合作伙伴希望利用其 “最少的汽车遗产，在各个方面实现全面的零负担”，与可能受到现有合同负担限制的经验丰富的汽车制造商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exposure to Inconsistency in Product Quality</b></p><p><blockquote><b>暴露于产品质量不一致</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Working with multiple partners may also expose the company to inconsistency in the quality of their vehicles, and ultimately impact consumer confidence in the brand. In the unfortunate event that a jointly manufactured vehicle with one partner becomes faulty, it could significantly damage Fisker’s reputation and consumer confidence in the brand.</p><p><blockquote>与多个合作伙伴合作也可能使公司面临车辆质量不一致的问题，并最终影响消费者对品牌的信心。如果与一家合作伙伴联合生产的汽车不幸出现故障，可能会严重损害菲斯克的声誉和消费者对该品牌的信心。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, consumers may start to take interest in the respective Fisker vehicle’s production partners, given the collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model compared to other brands whose manufacturers are seldom broadcasted as part of the marketing strategy. The highly collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model may cause consumers to start weighing their purchase decisions on the quality and reputation of the manufacturers instead of the brand, which strips Fisker of its credit in the development process of its vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，鉴于菲斯克商业模式的协作性质，与其他品牌相比，菲斯克的制造商很少作为营销策略的一部分进行广播，消费者可能会开始对菲斯克各自汽车的生产合作伙伴产生兴趣。菲斯克商业模式的高度协作性质可能会导致消费者开始根据制造商的质量和声誉而不是品牌来权衡购买决策，这剥夺了菲斯克在汽车开发过程中的信誉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overly Aggressive Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过于激进的目标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, Fisker plans to produce at least 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean on an annual basis, and 250,000 units of PEAR within the first full year of productions. However, these high figures draw curiosity on whether they are reasonably achievable. Under these production targets, Fisker would produce approximately 350,000 units of their vehicles by 2024. This would represent a 7% market share based on forecasted EV sales of&nbsp;6.2 million units by 2024, which is substantial for an EV startup after just two full years of operations with only two models available for sale. And in comparison to the globally recognized industry leader, Tesla, the assumed 7% market share would be double of Tesla’s global EV sales market share achieved in 2020 of&nbsp;close to 4%. Even if Fisker can offer customers with a pricing advantage, it would be challenging to achieve a 7% market share of global EV sales, especially given the large influx of competing models that will be introduced in the next few years. Based on our consideration of Fisker and their operating partners’ production capacities and anticipated EV demands, we believe these sales volume forecasts would more likely be achieved by 2026.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Fisker 计划每年至少生产 100,000 台 Fisker Ocean，并在生产的第一个全年生产 250,000 台 PEAR。然而，这些高数字引起了人们对它们是否合理可实现的好奇。根据这些生产目标，到 2024 年，菲斯克将生产约 350,000 辆汽车。根据预计到 2024 年电动汽车销量将达到 620 万辆，这将代表 7% 的市场份额，对于一家仅运营两年、仅有两款车型可供销售的电动汽车初创公司来说，这相当可观。与全球公认的行业领导者特斯拉相比，假设的 7% 市场份额将是特斯拉 2020 年全球电动汽车销售市场份额近 4% 的两倍。即使菲斯克能够为客户提供价格优势，实现全球电动汽车销售 7% 的市场份额也将是一项挑战，特别是考虑到未来几年将推出大量竞争车型。根据我们对菲斯克及其运营合作伙伴的产能和预期电动汽车需求的考虑，我们认为这些销量预测更有可能在 2026 年实现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Following Fisker’s IPO through a&nbsp;SPAC reverse merger&nbsp;sponsored by Spartan Energy Acquisition in October 2020, the company received $1 billion in capital injections, which was just the right amount needed to develop and produce the Fisker Ocean SUV according to Fisker’s business plans. With start of productions for the Fisker Ocean just 18 months out, the company continues to execute the development process according to plan and within budget, ending the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $985.4 million while maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. And with the newest PEAR model, the company does not anticipate significant capital investments until 2023, which they plan to partially fund with cash generated from operations through Fisker Ocean sales, in addition to external financing obtained from either debt or equity issuances.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 10 月，Fisker 通过 Spartan Energy Acquisition 发起的 SPAC 反向合并进行首次公开募股，随后该公司获得了 10 亿美元的注资，根据 Fisker 的商业计划，这正好是开发和生产 Fisker Ocean SUV 所需的资金。距离 Fisker Ocean 开始生产仅剩 18 个月，该公司继续按照计划和预算内执行开发流程，第一季度末现金和现金等价物为 9.854 亿美元，同时保持无债务资产负债表。对于最新的 PEAR 模型，该公司预计要到 2023 年才会进行重大资本投资，除了从债务或股权发行中获得的外部融资外，他们计划通过 Fisker Ocean 销售运营产生的现金来部分资助。</blockquote></p><p> We are predicting revenues of $1.2 to $1.4 billion by 2023, generated primarily from sales of approximately 20,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs following its first full year in the market, and a small volume of the PEAR model given its expected deliveries starting Q4 2023. Our forecasts predict a lower sales volume for the flagship SUV that is on par with recent electric SUV launches observed across the European and the U.S. EV market. We believe Fisker will achieve their annual production target for the Fisker Ocean of 100,000 units in late 2025 or early 2026 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计到 2023 年，收入将达到 12 亿至 14 亿美元，主要来自 Fisker Ocean SUV 在上市第一个整年后销售约 20,000 辆，以及少量 PEAR 车型，因为预计从 2023 年第四季度开始交付。我们的预测预测旗舰 SUV 的销量将会下降，这与欧洲和美国电动汽车市场最近推出的电动 SUV 持平。我们相信，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，Fisker 将在 2025 年底或 2026 年初实现 Fisker Ocean 100,000 辆的年产量目标。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 30% into 2030 considering Fisker’s continued expansion beyond the American and European markets and into the Chinese and Indian markets, as well as the anticipated growth in sales volumes with the launch of two other models in addition to the Fisker Ocean and PEAR model before 2025. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $157 million to $285 million by 2024 championed by continued sales growth, and a lifetime gross profit margin between 19% and 25% based on Fisker’s business plan.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 Fisker 将继续向美国和欧洲市场以外的中国和印度市场扩张，以及 2025 年前除了 Fisker Ocean 和 PEAR 车型外，还将推出另外两款车型，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以约 30% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，在销售额持续增长的推动下，公司到 2024 年将开始实现 1.57 亿至 2.85 亿美元的利润，根据菲斯克的商业计划，终身毛利率将在 19% 至 25% 之间。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc16e7b0a00d872cb9a339ed0e5f5aec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a29e2cf2a5b538f356c802408f4a4b22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>iii. 熊市财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372ca6f8d253e742af8bce8fc078734c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and ourinternal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度和中期报告以及我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985813dcd25b735d9596a849970216ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"><span>Author, with data from our internal valuation model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above analysis on Fisker’s fundamentals and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $4.6 billion (base case) to $10.3 billion (bull case), which translates to $16.29 and $36.94 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 11% to 151% based on the last traded price of $14.69 on June 2nd.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述对 Fisker 基本面和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 46 亿美元（基本情况）至 103 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 16.29 美元和 36.94 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 14.69 美元，这意味着上涨潜力约为 11% 至 151%。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估价：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0832647b2ae0a671bc2bf99d66f6df4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc71a141c6aba19be9f07bcfef67aac7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>三、熊案例估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b71936724a89c41dde8bb61620357e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and our internal valuation model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度及中期报告以及我们的内部估值模型。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid Motors Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid汽车公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8bb28783a9c0e183733805b450beae8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"><span>Source:lucidmotors.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：lucidmotors.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2007, Lucid Motors was previously known as Atieva, a notable manufacturer of EV batteries and powertrains. In 2016, the company officially rebranded to Lucid Motors under the leadership of Peter Rawlinson, former Chief Vehicle Engineer at Tesla. Currently the CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson led the company to developing the&nbsp;first Formula-E battery pack&nbsp;capable of powering the cars for the entire race. The technology was later evolved into the battery pack now used in the&nbsp;Lucid Air, the automaker’s flagship luxury electric sedan introduced in late 2016.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid Motors 成立于 2007 年，前身为 Atieva，是一家著名的电动汽车电池和动力系统制造商。2016年，在特斯拉前首席车辆工程师Peter Rawlinson的领导下，该公司正式更名为Lucid Motors。目前，Lucid 的首席执行官兼首席技术官 Peter Rawlinson 领导该公司开发了第一个电动方程式赛车电池组，能够为整个比赛的赛车提供动力。这项技术后来发展成为该汽车制造商于 2016 年底推出的旗舰豪华电动轿车 Lucid Air 中使用的电池组。</blockquote></p><p> The company builds its success on a commitment to develop a world-class, high-performance EV. The Lucid Air’s powertrain is capable of more than 500 miles in range with a full charge, setting a record-high standard for the industry. In addition to their world-class battery technology, the company also operates under the core belief that the future will be tech-driven, and this is what will differentiate them from the surge of new EV models produced by traditional automakers just to satisfy evolving consumer demands. Similar to Fisker’s vehicles, Lucid has prioritized connectivity within their vehicles, offering over-the-air updates to car owners at ease. The company’s vehicles are also equipped with advanced ADAS features like automatic emergency braking, cross-traffic alerts, and a driver monitoring system; level 3 autonomous driving features are also expected to roll out through over-the-air updates when testing is complete with regulatory approval achieved. The Lucid Air will also be one of the first EVs to incorporate facial ID recognition, which will be integrated with predictive analytics technology within the vehicle to automatically load profiles and preferences that are preset or learned over time based on the driver’s behaviour.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的成功建立在开发世界一流的高性能电动汽车的承诺之上。Lucid Air 的动力系统在充满电后可行驶 500 英里以上，创下了行业历史新高。除了世界一流的电池技术外，该公司还秉持着未来将由技术驱动的核心信念，这将使他们与传统汽车制造商为满足不断变化的消费者需求而生产的大量新型电动汽车车型区分开来。与 Fisker 的车辆类似，Lucid 也优先考虑车内的连接性，为车主提供无线更新。该公司的车辆还配备了先进的 ADAS 功能，如自动紧急制动、交叉交通警报和驾驶员监控系统；当测试完成并获得监管部门批准后，3 级自动驾驶功能预计也将通过无线更新推出。Lucid Air 也将是首批集成面部 ID 识别功能的电动汽车之一，该功能将与车内的预测分析技术集成，根据驾驶员的行为自动加载预设或随着时间的推移学习的配置文件和偏好。</blockquote></p><p> The brand is currently positioned for the “post-luxury” market, which Lucid defines as those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Lucid is not afraid to put a premium on their flagship vehicle, which is equipped with some of the most advanced technologies along with a premium exterior and interior composition – the Lucid Air is priced from $77,400 for the base model to $169,000 for the top-tier Dream Edition.</p><p><blockquote>该品牌目前定位于 “后豪华 ”市场，Lucid 将其定义为追求奢华而不奢侈体验的市场。Lucid 并不害怕为其旗舰车型付出高价，该车型配备了一些最先进的技术以及优质的外观和内饰构成——Lucid Air 的价格从基本车型的 77,400 美元到顶级梦想版的 169,000 美元不等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Highly Integrated Automaker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高度一体化的汽车制造商</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast to Fisker, Lucid builds its business on a highly integrated model. Lucid performs their own in-house R&amp;D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, infotainment, HVAC, integrated safety, chassis, and ADAS systems. The automaker will also internalize the EV production process at their Arizona manufacturing facility – the first of its kind in North America. The Arizona manufacturing facility will comprise of multiple components, including the “Advanced Manufacturing Plant” (“AMP-1”) which is currently producing the Lucid Air. Phase two expansion is also well underway for AMP-1 as Lucid prepares for the production of their premiere SUV,Project Gravity. Production capacity at AMP-1 is currently 30,000 units per year, and will expand up to 400,000 units per year as sales volumes ramp up with more models added to the line-up. The Arizona manufacturing facility will also house the “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant” (“LPM-1”), which is where Lucid will be manufacturing their powertrain technology, including battery packs, electric motors, and in-home charging units. Although a capital-intensive project for an EV start-up, the Arizona manufacturing facility will allow greater operational and cost efficiencies for Lucid through vertical integration, as well as greater control over quality and consistency of outputs.</p><p><blockquote>与 Fisker 不同，Lucid 的业务建立在高度集成的模式之上。Lucid 对其车辆的几乎每个方面都进行了自己的内部研发，包括动力系统、电池技术、信息娱乐系统、暖通空调、集成安全、底盘和 ADAS 系统。该汽车制造商还将在其亚利桑那州制造工厂实现电动汽车生产流程的内部化，这在北美尚属首次。亚利桑那州制造工厂将包括多个组件，包括目前正在生产 Lucid Air 的“先进制造工厂”(“AMP-1”)。随着 Lucid 准备生产其首款 SUV Project Gravity， AMP-1 的第二阶段扩张也进展顺利。AMP-1 的产能目前为每年 30,000 辆，随着产品线中添加更多车型，随着销量的增加，产能将扩大到每年 400,000 辆。亚利桑那州制造工厂还将设有 “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant”（“LPM-1”），Lucid 将在这里生产其动力总成技术，包括电池组、电动机和家用充电装置。尽管对于电动汽车初创企业来说是一个资本密集型项目，但亚利桑那州制造工厂将通过垂直整合提高 Lucid 的运营和成本效率，并更好地控制产出的质量和一致性。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to Fisker, Lucid plans to reuse their engineered platform, the “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform” (“LEAP”), on other vehicle variants to maximize return on their initial capital investments, and enable greater speed and efficiency in bringing their vehicles to market. And true to their business model, Lucid’s LEAP platform is designed and developed fully in-house. The platform includes their signature battery pack and battery management software, electric motors, power electronics, transmission, control software, and boost charger.</p><p><blockquote>与 Fisker 类似，Lucid 计划在其他车型上重复使用其工程平台 “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform”（“LEAP”），以最大限度地提高初始资本投资的回报，并提高车辆上市的速度和效率。Lucid 的 LEAP 平台完全由内部设计和开发，与他们的商业模式相符。该平台包括他们标志性的电池组和电池管理软件、电动机、电力电子设备、变速器、控制软件和增压充电器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inherent Challenges of Operating a World-Class Manufacturing Facility for a Newcomer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对于新来者来说运营世界级制造工厂的固有挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>A Capital-Intensive Effort</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本密集型工作</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, Lucid’s newest Arizona manufacturing facility is a highly capital-intensive project for a new entrant in the EV sector who is already carrying the expensive burden of R&amp;D on their first vehicle. Despite already having previous experience in manufacturing their Formula E battery system in-house in Silicon Valley, the Arizona production plant will be operating on a far grander scale, encompassing both parts production and vehicle assembly. In addition to the $700 million planned investment for building the factory, it will also cost Lucid $1.8 million per year to rent the land on which the factory sits on. Similar to many of recent new entrants within the sector, Lucid has already had its brush with bankruptcy once; the company was ultimately saved by a $1 billion capital injection from&nbsp;Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Since then, the company has been operating according to plan and on track to commencing delivery of the Lucid Air before the end of 2021. Their latest SPAC reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV will also provide the company with $4.4 billion of capital, which will further bolster their liquidity needed for continued development and expansion.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Lucid 在亚利桑那州的最新制造工厂对于电动汽车行业的新进入者来说是一个资本密集型项目，因为他们已经在为自己的第一辆车承担昂贵的研发负担。尽管亚利桑那州生产工厂之前已经拥有在硅谷内部制造电动方程式电池系统的经验，但其运营规模将更大，包括零部件生产和车辆组装。除了计划投资 7 亿美元建设工厂外，Lucid 每年还需要花费 180 万美元租赁工厂所在的土地。与该行业最近的许多新进入者类似，Lucid 已经濒临破产过一次；沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金向该公司注资 10 亿美元，最终挽救了该公司的生命。此后，该公司一直按计划运营，并有望在2021年底前开始交付Lucid Air。他们最近与 Churchill Capital Corp IV 的 SPAC 反向合并也将为该公司提供 44 亿美元的资本，这将进一步增强其持续发展和扩张所需的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Limited Target Audience</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有限的目标受众</b></blockquote></p><p> Lucid has also positioned itself as a luxury premium EV maker that caters to a niche market within the already-competitive landscape, which further narrows their market share. However, it is evident that the company has acknowledged this challenge since inception considering the unique offerings featured in the Lucid Air, including a powertrain that enables a travel range of more than 500 miles with one full charge, which differentiates them from others within the same price category.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 还将自己定位为一家豪华高端电动汽车制造商，在竞争激烈的环境中迎合利基市场，这进一步缩小了他们的市场份额。然而，很明显，考虑到 Lucid Air 的独特产品，该公司从一开始就承认了这一挑战，包括一次充满电可行驶超过 500 英里的动力系统，这使它们有别于同一价格范围内的其他产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Diverse Revenue Streams</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多元化收入来源</b></blockquote></p><p> A key competitive advantage for Lucid is their ability to maintain diverse revenue streams. In addition to the production and sales of vehicles, the company is also known for their extensive expertise in developing battery management systems. The global EV battery market is expected to soar in the next five years, with an&nbsp;estimated value of $37.69 million&nbsp;by 2025 due to growing EV sales propelled by the change in consumer attitude and government intervention through financial incentives and strict climate change policies. Lucid plans to leverage their existing expertise and capitalize on the future growth opportunities brought forth by the electrification wave, including the development of an “Energy Storage System” (“ESS”). ESS leverages Lucid’s existing battery and power electronics technologies, which allows the company to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 的一个关键竞争优势是他们维持多元化收入来源的能力。除了生产和销售车辆，该公司还因其在开发电池管理系统方面的丰富专业知识而闻名。全球电动汽车电池市场预计将在未来五年内飙升，到2025年估计价值将达到3769万美元，原因是消费者态度的变化以及政府通过金融激励和严格的气候变化政策进行干预推动了电动汽车销量的增长。Lucid计划利用他们现有的专业知识，并利用电气化浪潮带来的未来增长机会，包括开发“储能系统”（“ESS”）。ESS 利用 Lucid 现有的电池和电力电子技术，使公司能够最大限度地提高已部署的资本投资回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Lucid is also an ongoing supplier of battery packs and software for all OEM racing teams in Formula E. The company plans to evolve their existing battery technology to widen the range of its compatibility with other products, including aircrafts, eVTOL, and other commercial machinery. The growth opportunity would be easily executable through mass production at their new battery manufacturing plant, LPM-1, in the Arizona factory. Again, the opportunity would allow Lucid to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed in both developing their state-of-the-art battery systems and construction of their battery manufacturing plant.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 也是电动方程式赛车所有 OEM 车队的电池组和软件的持续供应商。该公司计划发展现有的电池技术，以扩大其与其他产品的兼容性范围，包括飞机、电动垂直起降和其他商用机械。通过在亚利桑那州工厂的新电池制造厂 LPM-1 进行大规模生产，可以轻松实现这一增长机会。同样，这一机会将使 Lucid 能够最大限度地提高其资本投资的回报，这些资本投资已用于开发最先进的电池系统和建设电池制造厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has yet to release any public filings of their complete financial records. However, the latest Analyst Day Presentation indicates that the company has secured more than 9,000 reservations of the Lucid Air to date, with 500 units of which representing the limited production Dream Edition model currently priced at a premium of $169,900 and fully reserved, which indicates robust demand and increasing customer traction. This translates to revenues of at least $84.95 million generated from the Lucid Air Dream Edition, and $657.9 million from other Lucid Air models based on the conservative assumption that they are all base models priced at $77,400. It is worth noting that current reservations are fully cancellable and refundable; however, even if actual sales drop 10% from the number of current reservations, the company is still expected to generate total revenues of at least $712.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未公布其完整财务记录的任何公开文件。然而，最新的分析师日演示表明，该公司迄今为止已获得超过 9,000 辆 Lucid Air 预订，其中 500 辆代表限量生产的梦想版车型，目前的溢价为 169,900 美元，已全部预订，这表明需求强劲，客户吸引力不断增加。这意味着 Lucid Air Dream Edition 的收入至少为 8495 万美元，其他 Lucid Air 型号的收入为 6.579 亿美元，保守假设它们都是售价为 77,400 美元的基本型号。值得注意的是，目前的预订是完全可以取消和退款的；然而，即使实际销售额比当前预订数量下降10%，该公司仍有望产生至少7.126亿美元的总收入。</blockquote></p><p> We are predicting revenues of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2022 considering a full year of productions and sales of the Lucid Air, consistent with management’s forecasts within the Analyst Day Presentation. Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% to 40% into 2030 considering Lucid’s expanding portfolio of premium-priced vehicles, combined with a&nbsp;global sales footprint&nbsp;across North America, Europe and the Middle East. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $631 million to $915 million by 2025 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 Lucid Air 全年的生产和销售，我们预测 2022 年收入将达到 22 亿至 23 亿美元，这与管理层在分析师日演讲中的预测一致。考虑到 Lucid 不断扩大的高价汽车产品组合，以及遍布北美、欧洲和中东的全球销售足迹，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以 30% 至 40% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，到 2025 年，该公司将开始实现 6.31 亿至 9.15 亿美元的利润。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e5729ab372255e42956fd0c35a91f50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b6ba74ec468be67491e2e1dc942f22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>iii. 熊市财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b194fbb93dd81b6c79120ef86df6fd7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and ourinternal financial forecasts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c375cacc8c0978717e14611659a9e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (LCID_-_Valuation.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型（LCID_-_Valuation.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above analysis on Lucid’s current reservation rates and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $9.6 billion (base case) to $14.1 billion (bull case), which translates to $36.54 and $53.83 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 55% to 129% based on the last traded price of $23.55 on June 2nd.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述对 Lucid 当前预订率和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 96 亿美元（基本情况）至 141 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 36.54 美元和 53.83 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 23.55 美元，这意味着大约 55% 至 129% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估价：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f41f8b2bd3382a38f13d4cac18f3ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e505e76632b9ca8142c4238a345f7eb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>三、熊案例估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df96ba5195d156c938f941d22d9f89c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and our internal valuation model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部估值模型。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Lucid Motors Vs. Fisker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：Lucid Motors 与 Fisker</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on our analysis, both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the up-and-coming era of global transition to EVs. Despite operating under business models on two extremes, both Fisker and Lucid show capability in countering the inherent disadvantages of their respective business models with unique offerings. Fisker’s asset-lean business model allows for higher capital deployment to other areas deemed more critical for enhancing customer service, and lower production costs to provide affordable pricing for buyers, while Lucid’s capital-intensive and vertically integrated strategy is compensated by greater operational and cost efficiencies achievable through economies of scale thanks to their cross-compatible, state-of-the-art battery technology. Both companies will also be catering to the needs of different markets – Fisker’s top selling point is affordability, while Lucid is positioned to satisfy the needs of those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Both companies intend to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience, with showrooms and experience centers to open across the U.S. and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的分析，两家公司都处于有利地位，可以利用全球向电动汽车转型的新兴时代。尽管在两个极端的商业模式下运营，Fisker和Lucid都表现出了通过独特产品来对抗各自商业模式固有劣势的能力。Fisker 的资产精益商业模式允许将更高的资本部署到其他被认为对增强客户服务更重要的领域，并降低生产成本，为买家提供负担得起的价格，而 Lucid 的资本密集型和垂直一体化战略则通过交叉兼容、最先进的电池技术通过规模经济实现更高的运营和成本效率来弥补。两家公司还将迎合不同市场的需求--Fisker 的最大卖点是价格实惠，而 Lucid 的定位是满足那些追求奢华而不奢侈体验的人的需求。两家公司都打算采用直销策略来最大限度地提高客户体验，并在美国和欧洲开设展厅和体验中心。</blockquote></p><p> Although our valuation shows Fisker yielding a slightly higher upside potential than Lucid, we believe the latter makes a safer investment in the near-term given the Lucid Air has already entered the production stage with strong reservation rates and deliveries expected to commence before the end of the year, while the Fisker Ocean is still in testing phase, with core technical features yet to be announced to the public and start of production still 18 months out. However, we are confident that both EV makers are equipped with the talent and resources to excel in the industry in the long-run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们的估值显示 Fisker 的上涨潜力略高于 Lucid，但我们相信后者在短期内进行了更安全的投资，因为 Lucid Air 已经进入生产阶段，预计将在年底前开始交付，而 Fisker Ocean 仍处于测试阶段，核心技术功能尚未向公众公布，距离投产还有 18 个月。然而，我们相信，从长远来看，两家电动汽车制造商都具备在行业中脱颖而出的人才和资源。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Lucid Motors Or Fisker The Better EV Stock To Buy?<blockquote>Lucid Motors 还是 Fisker 是更值得购买的电动汽车股票？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Lucid Motors Or Fisker The Better EV Stock To Buy?<blockquote>Lucid Motors 还是 Fisker 是更值得购买的电动汽车股票？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 22:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth of 43% year-over-year observed in 2020.</li>  <li>Europe is expected to have more than 300 EV models by 2025, while the U.S. is expected to have more than 130 EV models by 2026.</li>  <li>Two of the up-and-coming EV startups include Lucid Motors and Fisker, both California-based with production and delivery expected by the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively.</li>  <li>We believe both companies are undervalued at the moment, with significant upside potential of more than 150%.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5b427058aa1c9aea96553593b7ed1e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Photo by domin_domin/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车（「EV」）近年来成为焦点，二零二零年的销量同比强劲增长43%。</li><li>到 2025 年，欧洲预计将拥有 300 多款电动汽车车型，而到 2026 年，美国预计将拥有 130 多款电动汽车车型。</li><li>两家新兴的电动汽车初创公司包括 Lucid Motors 和 Fisker，这两家公司都位于加利福尼亚州，预计分别于 2021 年底和 2022 年底开始生产和交付。</li><li>我们认为两家公司目前都被低估，上涨潜力超过 150%。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由domin_domin/E+提供，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth observed in 2020 despite a slump in global automotive sales due to COVID-related impacts. Instead of being overshadowed by the on-and-off lockdowns and lingering wariness of economic uncertainty, global EV sales continued its growth momentum in 2020,rising 43% year-over-year&nbsp;while overall automotive sales dropped by 20%. The evolving consumer sentiment on EVs resulting from increasing affordability and practicality thanks to technological advancements, combined with government intervention through subsidies and climate change policies are expected to supercharge the EV sales figures further within the decade; EV sales are expected to exceed 31.1 million units and represent 32% of global new car sales by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电动汽车（「EV」）成为人们关注的焦点，尽管全球汽车销量因新冠疫情相关影响而下滑，但二零二零年的销量仍呈现强劲增长。2020年，全球电动汽车销量没有受到断断续续的封锁和对经济不确定性的挥之不去的警惕的影响，而是继续保持增长势头，同比增长43%，而整体汽车销量下降20%。由于技术进步，消费者对电动汽车的负担能力和实用性不断提高，加上政府通过补贴和气候变化政策进行干预，预计将在十年内进一步推高电动汽车的销售数据；到2030年，电动汽车销量预计将超过3110万辆，占全球新车销量的32%。</blockquote></p><p> The next decade will be an era of electrification with significant opportunities for the sector as EVs take the center stage. The European Federation for Transport and Environment predicts&nbsp;more than 300 available EV models&nbsp;within the European automotive market by 2025, while the IHS Markit predicts more than&nbsp;130 available EV models in the U.S. by 2026.</p><p><blockquote>未来十年将是电气化时代，随着电动汽车占据中心舞台，该行业将面临巨大机遇。欧洲运输与环境联合会预测，到 2025 年，欧洲汽车市场将有 300 多款电动汽车车型可用，而 IHS Markit 预测，到 2026 年，美国将有 130 多款电动汽车车型可用。</blockquote></p><p> Two of the up and coming brands to break into the U.S. and European EV market include Lucid Motors ((NYSE:CCIV)or “Lucid”) and Fisker(NYSE:FSR). The two California-based companies have already debuted their respective flagship vehicles with reservations now open; initial deliveries are expected in late 2021 for Lucid and late 2022 for Fisker. In addition to their astonishing vehicles, both stock picks have also been showstoppers in the latest tech rally, with share prices peaking at 187% for Fisker and 480% for Lucid since their respective IPO and pre-IPO announcements.</p><p><blockquote>打入美国和欧洲电动汽车市场的两个新兴品牌包括 Lucid Motors（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCIV）或 “Lucid”）和 Fisker（纽约证券交易所股票代码：FSR）。这两家总部位于加利福尼亚州的公司已经推出了各自的旗舰车型，现已开放预订；Lucid 预计将于 2021 年底首次交付，Fisker 预计将于 2022 年底首次交付。除了令人惊叹的车辆之外，这两只股票还在最新的科技股反弹中大放异彩，自各自发布 IPO 和 IPO 前公告以来，Fisker 的股价分别达到 187% 和 Lucid 的股价达到 480% 的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3d67f9efb3fba9a363fca7f11f130a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"410\"><span>Source:fiskerinc.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：fiskerinc.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Launched in 2016, the Southern California-based EV maker builds its brand on the mission to provide a “clean future for all” by creating the “world’s most emotional and sustainable vehicles”. The company is currently led by co-founders Henrik Fisker and Dr. Geeta Gupta-Fisker, alongside a strong executive team with years of industry experience in their respective trades. Henrik Fisker is best known for his disruptive designs within the luxury car sector for notable brands including BMW and Aston Martin. Prior to launching Fisker Inc., Henrik Fisker co-founded “Fisker Automotive”, which was best known for producing the world’s first luxury hybrid supercar, Fisker Karma, before its demise in 2012 due to bankruptcy. Giving the fast-changing sector another shot, the car designer has returned to the arena this time with the lessons from his past experience and an innovative business model – the “asset-lean” approach.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于南加州的电动汽车制造商于 2016 年推出，其品牌宗旨是通过打造 “世界上最具情感和可持续的汽车 ”，为所有人提供 “清洁未来 ”。该公司目前由联合创始人 Henrik Fisker 和 Geeta Gupta-Fisker 博士领导，以及一支在各自行业拥有多年行业经验的强大执行团队。亨里克·菲斯克最出名的是他在豪华汽车领域为宝马和阿斯顿·马丁等知名品牌进行的颠覆性设计。在创办菲斯克公司之前，亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）与人共同创办了 “菲斯克汽车 ”公司，该公司因生产世界上第一辆豪华混合动力超级跑车菲斯克-卡玛（Fisker Karma）而闻名，但在 2012 年因破产而倒闭。这位汽车设计师这次带着过去的经验教训和创新的商业模式--“资产精益 ”方法--重返赛场，为快速变化的行业注入了新的活力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The “Asset-Lean Approach”</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“资产精益方法”</b></blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s asset-lean approach entails outsourcing the business components where differentiation is deemed non-essential, including platform engineering, production and assembly, the charging network, and other fleet management services. The business model will not only allow the company to significantly shorten the typical timeline of 60 months, from concept to delivery, to&nbsp;29 months, but also enable greater capital deployment towards areas critical to customer experience, including design, software, user interface, and advanced driver-assistance systems (“ADAS”). The lowered costs achieved through this business model will also enable Fisker to keep the prices of their vehicles at an affordable range without compromising on quality.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 的资产精益方法需要将差异化视为非必要的业务组成部分外包，包括平台工程、生产和组装、充电网络和其他车队管理服务。该商业模式不仅将使该公司从概念到交付的 60 个月的典型时间表大幅缩短至 29 个月，而且还可以将更多资金部署到对客户体验至关重要的领域，包括设计、软件、用户界面和高级驾驶员辅助系统 (“ADAS”)。通过这种商业模式实现的降低成本也将使菲斯克能够在不影响质量的情况下将车辆价格保持在可承受的范围内。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fisker’s flagship model will be the&nbsp;Fisker Ocean SUV, which is expected to begin production on November 17, 2022 with initial deliveries to be made across Europe and the U.S. before the end next year. As part of the brand’s asset-lean mandate, Fisker has forged a&nbsp;Partnership with Magna Steyr(“Magna”) to co-engineer and produce the Fisker Ocean. The two companies are currently collaborating to create a unique “FM29” platform that will be used as the foundation for their flagship SUV, as well as at least one other Fisker model. By leveraging Magna’s existing technology and established manufacturing facilities, the EV maker will be able to accelerate the timeline of bringing their vehicle to market, while also reducing vehicle development costs. The cross-compatible platform will also allow Fisker to achieve volume pricing on supplies with quality vendors, thus further reducing the costs of building its vehicles to both increase affordability for customers while boosting margins for the company. The Fisker Ocean will be selling at a low entry price of $37,499, with the most premium trims offered at $69,900; combined with a driving range of up to 350 miles, the all-electric SUV trumps its peers within the price category, whose average travel range&nbsp;sits around 250 miles. The Fisker Ocean is aiming to become a “premium with volume” model, with anticipated productions of more than 100,000 units per year.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 的旗舰车型将是 Fisker Ocean SUV，预计将于 2022 年 11 月 17 日开始生产，明年年底前将在欧洲和美国进行首批交付。作为品牌精益资产使命的一部分，菲斯克与麦格纳斯太尔（“麦格纳”）建立了合作伙伴关系，共同设计和生产菲斯克海洋。两家公司目前正在合作打造一个独特的 “FM29 ”平台，该平台将作为其旗舰 SUV 以及至少一款其他菲斯克车型的基础。通过利用麦格纳现有的技术和已建立的制造设施，这家电动汽车制造商将能够加快将汽车推向市场的时间表，同时降低汽车开发成本。交叉兼容平台还将使 Fisker 能够与优质供应商实现供应的批量定价，从而进一步降低车辆制造成本，既提高客户的负担能力，又提高公司的利润率。Fisker Ocean 的入门价格为 37,499 美元，最高级的车型售价为 69,900 美元；结合高达350英里的行驶里程，这款全电动SUV在平均行驶里程约为250英里的同价位车型中脱颖而出。Fisker Ocean 的目标是成为 “高端销量 ”车型，预计年产量将超过 10 万辆。</blockquote></p><p> A similar approach is also applied to the development and production of their second model,PEAR. Fisker has entered into an&nbsp;agreement with Foxconn– widely known for their production of iPhones in collaboration with Apple – to engineer and produce a brand-new platform for the revolutionary vehicle at a sub-$30,000 price tag. Model details are currently limited, but the new model is expected to feature a unique design and revolutionary experience that will differentiate it from any existing segment of EVs. PEAR’s start of production is slated for Q4 2023, with initial full-year productions expected to hit 250,000 units. The vehicle will first roll out in the U.S. with further expansion into the Chinese, European and Indian markets.</p><p><blockquote>类似的方法也应用于他们的第二个模型PEAR的开发和生产。菲斯克已经与富士康达成协议——富士康以与苹果合作生产iPhone而闻名——为这款革命性车辆设计和生产一个全新的平台，价格低于3万美元。目前车型细节有限，但新车型预计将采用独特的设计和革命性的体验，使其有别于任何现有的电动汽车细分市场。PEAR 计划于 2023 年第四季度开始生产，初步全年产量预计将达到 25 万辆。该车将首先在美国推出，并进一步扩展到中国、欧洲和印度市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inherent Risks of Fisker’s Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克商业模式的固有风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Significant Reliance on Production Partners</b></p><p><blockquote><b>严重依赖生产合作伙伴</b></blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s business model entails outsourcing a part of their engineering and production processes to third-parties. The company’s substantial reliance on their relationships with third-party manufacturers and suppliers subjects them to significant risks with respect to operations, such as delays caused by quality control issues or capacity constraints. Magna Steyr currently produces for established auto brands including&nbsp;BMW, Daimler, and Jaguar Land Rover. With annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 vehicles, adding Fisker to their production line would mean 50,000 units allocated to each partner of Magna’s on average. Considering Fisker’s call for annual productions of 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean, Magna may be required to drop one of its existing partners, reduce production levels for other customers, or invest in extending their production capacity to meet the performance targets, resulting in high opportunity costs for the manufacturing giant. In order to incentivize their production partner for success of the Ocean program and mitigate the risk of delays caused by capacity constraints, Fisker has offered Magna a 6% stake in the company, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the 2020 10K).</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的商业模式需要将部分工程和生产流程外包给第三方。公司严重依赖与第三方制造商和供应商的关系，这使他们在运营方面面临重大风险，如质量控制问题或产能限制导致的延误。麦格纳斯太尔目前为宝马、戴姆勒和捷豹路虎等知名汽车品牌生产产品。菲斯克的年产能约为 20 万辆，如果将菲斯克加入他们的生产线，麦格纳的每个合作伙伴平均将获得 5 万辆。考虑到菲斯克年产 10 万辆菲斯克海洋的看涨期权，麦格纳可能需要放弃其现有合作伙伴之一，降低其他客户的生产水平，或投资扩大其产能以实现业绩目标，从而给这家制造巨头带来高昂的机会成本。为了激励其生产合作伙伴使海洋计划取得成功，并降低因产能限制而造成的延误风险，菲斯克向麦格纳提供了该公司 6% 的股份，可通过实现 “相互关联的业绩条件 ”来行使（2020 年 10K 第 97 页）。</blockquote></p><p> The same risks apply to Fisker’s partnership with Foxconn to produce PEAR. Foxconn has no prior experience in the manufacturing process of vehicles, which subjects Fisker to potential risks related to quality control and delays. Foxconn is one of the many existing manufacturing industry veterans who have recently started to tap into the OEM opportunities within the growing EV sector. The electronics manufacturer plans to convert its idle plant in Wisconsin to facilitate their EV production ambitions. While Fisker intends to leverage Foxconn’s manufacturing expertise, Foxconn seeks to utilize the experience from producing Fisker’s EVs to&nbsp;pave its way into the larger EV market, with plans to produce EVs for other companies using the same platform in the long-run. Despite Foxconn’s lack of experience in EV production, the partners hope to take advantage of their “minimal automotive legacy to enable a full clean-sheet approach in all aspects”, and compete against experienced car manufacturers who may be restricted by the burden of existing contracts.</p><p><blockquote>同样的风险也适用于菲斯克与富士康合作生产梨。富士康此前在车辆制造过程中没有经验，这使得菲斯克面临与质量控制和延误相关的潜在风险。富士康是众多现有制造业资深人士之一，他们最近开始利用不断增长的电动汽车行业的 OEM 机会。这家电子制造商计划改造其位于威斯康星州的闲置工厂，以实现其电动汽车生产雄心。菲斯克打算利用富士康的制造专业知识，而富士康则寻求利用生产菲斯克电动汽车的经验，为进入更大的电动汽车市场铺平道路，并计划从长远来看为其他使用相同平台的公司生产电动汽车。尽管富士康在电动汽车生产方面缺乏经验，但合作伙伴希望利用其 “最少的汽车遗产，在各个方面实现全面的零负担”，与可能受到现有合同负担限制的经验丰富的汽车制造商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Exposure to Inconsistency in Product Quality</b></p><p><blockquote><b>暴露于产品质量不一致</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Working with multiple partners may also expose the company to inconsistency in the quality of their vehicles, and ultimately impact consumer confidence in the brand. In the unfortunate event that a jointly manufactured vehicle with one partner becomes faulty, it could significantly damage Fisker’s reputation and consumer confidence in the brand.</p><p><blockquote>与多个合作伙伴合作也可能使公司面临车辆质量不一致的问题，并最终影响消费者对品牌的信心。如果与一家合作伙伴联合生产的汽车不幸出现故障，可能会严重损害菲斯克的声誉和消费者对该品牌的信心。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, consumers may start to take interest in the respective Fisker vehicle’s production partners, given the collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model compared to other brands whose manufacturers are seldom broadcasted as part of the marketing strategy. The highly collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model may cause consumers to start weighing their purchase decisions on the quality and reputation of the manufacturers instead of the brand, which strips Fisker of its credit in the development process of its vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，鉴于菲斯克商业模式的协作性质，与其他品牌相比，菲斯克的制造商很少作为营销策略的一部分进行广播，消费者可能会开始对菲斯克各自汽车的生产合作伙伴产生兴趣。菲斯克商业模式的高度协作性质可能会导致消费者开始根据制造商的质量和声誉而不是品牌来权衡购买决策，这剥夺了菲斯克在汽车开发过程中的信誉。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overly Aggressive Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>过于激进的目标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, Fisker plans to produce at least 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean on an annual basis, and 250,000 units of PEAR within the first full year of productions. However, these high figures draw curiosity on whether they are reasonably achievable. Under these production targets, Fisker would produce approximately 350,000 units of their vehicles by 2024. This would represent a 7% market share based on forecasted EV sales of&nbsp;6.2 million units by 2024, which is substantial for an EV startup after just two full years of operations with only two models available for sale. And in comparison to the globally recognized industry leader, Tesla, the assumed 7% market share would be double of Tesla’s global EV sales market share achieved in 2020 of&nbsp;close to 4%. Even if Fisker can offer customers with a pricing advantage, it would be challenging to achieve a 7% market share of global EV sales, especially given the large influx of competing models that will be introduced in the next few years. Based on our consideration of Fisker and their operating partners’ production capacities and anticipated EV demands, we believe these sales volume forecasts would more likely be achieved by 2026.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Fisker 计划每年至少生产 100,000 台 Fisker Ocean，并在生产的第一个全年生产 250,000 台 PEAR。然而，这些高数字引起了人们对它们是否合理可实现的好奇。根据这些生产目标，到 2024 年，菲斯克将生产约 350,000 辆汽车。根据预计到 2024 年电动汽车销量将达到 620 万辆，这将代表 7% 的市场份额，对于一家仅运营两年、仅有两款车型可供销售的电动汽车初创公司来说，这相当可观。与全球公认的行业领导者特斯拉相比，假设的 7% 市场份额将是特斯拉 2020 年全球电动汽车销售市场份额近 4% 的两倍。即使菲斯克能够为客户提供价格优势，实现全球电动汽车销售 7% 的市场份额也将是一项挑战，特别是考虑到未来几年将推出大量竞争车型。根据我们对菲斯克及其运营合作伙伴的产能和预期电动汽车需求的考虑，我们认为这些销量预测更有可能在 2026 年实现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Following Fisker’s IPO through a&nbsp;SPAC reverse merger&nbsp;sponsored by Spartan Energy Acquisition in October 2020, the company received $1 billion in capital injections, which was just the right amount needed to develop and produce the Fisker Ocean SUV according to Fisker’s business plans. With start of productions for the Fisker Ocean just 18 months out, the company continues to execute the development process according to plan and within budget, ending the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $985.4 million while maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. And with the newest PEAR model, the company does not anticipate significant capital investments until 2023, which they plan to partially fund with cash generated from operations through Fisker Ocean sales, in addition to external financing obtained from either debt or equity issuances.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年 10 月，Fisker 通过 Spartan Energy Acquisition 发起的 SPAC 反向合并进行首次公开募股，随后该公司获得了 10 亿美元的注资，根据 Fisker 的商业计划，这正好是开发和生产 Fisker Ocean SUV 所需的资金。距离 Fisker Ocean 开始生产仅剩 18 个月，该公司继续按照计划和预算内执行开发流程，第一季度末现金和现金等价物为 9.854 亿美元，同时保持无债务资产负债表。对于最新的 PEAR 模型，该公司预计要到 2023 年才会进行重大资本投资，除了从债务或股权发行中获得的外部融资外，他们计划通过 Fisker Ocean 销售运营产生的现金来部分资助。</blockquote></p><p> We are predicting revenues of $1.2 to $1.4 billion by 2023, generated primarily from sales of approximately 20,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs following its first full year in the market, and a small volume of the PEAR model given its expected deliveries starting Q4 2023. Our forecasts predict a lower sales volume for the flagship SUV that is on par with recent electric SUV launches observed across the European and the U.S. EV market. We believe Fisker will achieve their annual production target for the Fisker Ocean of 100,000 units in late 2025 or early 2026 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计到 2023 年，收入将达到 12 亿至 14 亿美元，主要来自 Fisker Ocean SUV 在上市第一个整年后销售约 20,000 辆，以及少量 PEAR 车型，因为预计从 2023 年第四季度开始交付。我们的预测预测旗舰 SUV 的销量将会下降，这与欧洲和美国电动汽车市场最近推出的电动 SUV 持平。我们相信，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，Fisker 将在 2025 年底或 2026 年初实现 Fisker Ocean 100,000 辆的年产量目标。</blockquote></p><p> Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 30% into 2030 considering Fisker’s continued expansion beyond the American and European markets and into the Chinese and Indian markets, as well as the anticipated growth in sales volumes with the launch of two other models in addition to the Fisker Ocean and PEAR model before 2025. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $157 million to $285 million by 2024 championed by continued sales growth, and a lifetime gross profit margin between 19% and 25% based on Fisker’s business plan.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 Fisker 将继续向美国和欧洲市场以外的中国和印度市场扩张，以及 2025 年前除了 Fisker Ocean 和 PEAR 车型外，还将推出另外两款车型，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以约 30% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，在销售额持续增长的推动下，公司到 2024 年将开始实现 1.57 亿至 2.85 亿美元的利润，根据菲斯克的商业计划，终身毛利率将在 19% 至 25% 之间。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc16e7b0a00d872cb9a339ed0e5f5aec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a29e2cf2a5b538f356c802408f4a4b22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>iii. 熊市财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/372ca6f8d253e742af8bce8fc078734c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and ourinternal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度和中期报告以及我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985813dcd25b735d9596a849970216ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"><span>Author, with data from our internal valuation model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above analysis on Fisker’s fundamentals and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $4.6 billion (base case) to $10.3 billion (bull case), which translates to $16.29 and $36.94 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 11% to 151% based on the last traded price of $14.69 on June 2nd.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述对 Fisker 基本面和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 46 亿美元（基本情况）至 103 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 16.29 美元和 36.94 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 14.69 美元，这意味着上涨潜力约为 11% 至 151%。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估价：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0832647b2ae0a671bc2bf99d66f6df4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc71a141c6aba19be9f07bcfef67aac7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>三、熊案例估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b71936724a89c41dde8bb61620357e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and our internal valuation model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自2020年和2021年菲斯克公司。年度及中期报告以及我们的内部估值模型。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid Motors Inc.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid汽车公司。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8bb28783a9c0e183733805b450beae8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"><span>Source:lucidmotors.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：lucidmotors.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2007, Lucid Motors was previously known as Atieva, a notable manufacturer of EV batteries and powertrains. In 2016, the company officially rebranded to Lucid Motors under the leadership of Peter Rawlinson, former Chief Vehicle Engineer at Tesla. Currently the CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson led the company to developing the&nbsp;first Formula-E battery pack&nbsp;capable of powering the cars for the entire race. The technology was later evolved into the battery pack now used in the&nbsp;Lucid Air, the automaker’s flagship luxury electric sedan introduced in late 2016.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid Motors 成立于 2007 年，前身为 Atieva，是一家著名的电动汽车电池和动力系统制造商。2016年，在特斯拉前首席车辆工程师Peter Rawlinson的领导下，该公司正式更名为Lucid Motors。目前，Lucid 的首席执行官兼首席技术官 Peter Rawlinson 领导该公司开发了第一个电动方程式赛车电池组，能够为整个比赛的赛车提供动力。这项技术后来发展成为该汽车制造商于 2016 年底推出的旗舰豪华电动轿车 Lucid Air 中使用的电池组。</blockquote></p><p> The company builds its success on a commitment to develop a world-class, high-performance EV. The Lucid Air’s powertrain is capable of more than 500 miles in range with a full charge, setting a record-high standard for the industry. In addition to their world-class battery technology, the company also operates under the core belief that the future will be tech-driven, and this is what will differentiate them from the surge of new EV models produced by traditional automakers just to satisfy evolving consumer demands. Similar to Fisker’s vehicles, Lucid has prioritized connectivity within their vehicles, offering over-the-air updates to car owners at ease. The company’s vehicles are also equipped with advanced ADAS features like automatic emergency braking, cross-traffic alerts, and a driver monitoring system; level 3 autonomous driving features are also expected to roll out through over-the-air updates when testing is complete with regulatory approval achieved. The Lucid Air will also be one of the first EVs to incorporate facial ID recognition, which will be integrated with predictive analytics technology within the vehicle to automatically load profiles and preferences that are preset or learned over time based on the driver’s behaviour.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的成功建立在开发世界一流的高性能电动汽车的承诺之上。Lucid Air 的动力系统在充满电后可行驶 500 英里以上，创下了行业历史新高。除了世界一流的电池技术外，该公司还秉持着未来将由技术驱动的核心信念，这将使他们与传统汽车制造商为满足不断变化的消费者需求而生产的大量新型电动汽车车型区分开来。与 Fisker 的车辆类似，Lucid 也优先考虑车内的连接性，为车主提供无线更新。该公司的车辆还配备了先进的 ADAS 功能，如自动紧急制动、交叉交通警报和驾驶员监控系统；当测试完成并获得监管部门批准后，3 级自动驾驶功能预计也将通过无线更新推出。Lucid Air 也将是首批集成面部 ID 识别功能的电动汽车之一，该功能将与车内的预测分析技术集成，根据驾驶员的行为自动加载预设或随着时间的推移学习的配置文件和偏好。</blockquote></p><p> The brand is currently positioned for the “post-luxury” market, which Lucid defines as those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Lucid is not afraid to put a premium on their flagship vehicle, which is equipped with some of the most advanced technologies along with a premium exterior and interior composition – the Lucid Air is priced from $77,400 for the base model to $169,000 for the top-tier Dream Edition.</p><p><blockquote>该品牌目前定位于 “后豪华 ”市场，Lucid 将其定义为追求奢华而不奢侈体验的市场。Lucid 并不害怕为其旗舰车型付出高价，该车型配备了一些最先进的技术以及优质的外观和内饰构成——Lucid Air 的价格从基本车型的 77,400 美元到顶级梦想版的 169,000 美元不等。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Highly Integrated Automaker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高度一体化的汽车制造商</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast to Fisker, Lucid builds its business on a highly integrated model. Lucid performs their own in-house R&amp;D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, infotainment, HVAC, integrated safety, chassis, and ADAS systems. The automaker will also internalize the EV production process at their Arizona manufacturing facility – the first of its kind in North America. The Arizona manufacturing facility will comprise of multiple components, including the “Advanced Manufacturing Plant” (“AMP-1”) which is currently producing the Lucid Air. Phase two expansion is also well underway for AMP-1 as Lucid prepares for the production of their premiere SUV,Project Gravity. Production capacity at AMP-1 is currently 30,000 units per year, and will expand up to 400,000 units per year as sales volumes ramp up with more models added to the line-up. The Arizona manufacturing facility will also house the “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant” (“LPM-1”), which is where Lucid will be manufacturing their powertrain technology, including battery packs, electric motors, and in-home charging units. Although a capital-intensive project for an EV start-up, the Arizona manufacturing facility will allow greater operational and cost efficiencies for Lucid through vertical integration, as well as greater control over quality and consistency of outputs.</p><p><blockquote>与 Fisker 不同，Lucid 的业务建立在高度集成的模式之上。Lucid 对其车辆的几乎每个方面都进行了自己的内部研发，包括动力系统、电池技术、信息娱乐系统、暖通空调、集成安全、底盘和 ADAS 系统。该汽车制造商还将在其亚利桑那州制造工厂实现电动汽车生产流程的内部化，这在北美尚属首次。亚利桑那州制造工厂将包括多个组件，包括目前正在生产 Lucid Air 的“先进制造工厂”(“AMP-1”)。随着 Lucid 准备生产其首款 SUV Project Gravity， AMP-1 的第二阶段扩张也进展顺利。AMP-1 的产能目前为每年 30,000 辆，随着产品线中添加更多车型，随着销量的增加，产能将扩大到每年 400,000 辆。亚利桑那州制造工厂还将设有 “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant”（“LPM-1”），Lucid 将在这里生产其动力总成技术，包括电池组、电动机和家用充电装置。尽管对于电动汽车初创企业来说是一个资本密集型项目，但亚利桑那州制造工厂将通过垂直整合提高 Lucid 的运营和成本效率，并更好地控制产出的质量和一致性。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to Fisker, Lucid plans to reuse their engineered platform, the “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform” (“LEAP”), on other vehicle variants to maximize return on their initial capital investments, and enable greater speed and efficiency in bringing their vehicles to market. And true to their business model, Lucid’s LEAP platform is designed and developed fully in-house. The platform includes their signature battery pack and battery management software, electric motors, power electronics, transmission, control software, and boost charger.</p><p><blockquote>与 Fisker 类似，Lucid 计划在其他车型上重复使用其工程平台 “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform”（“LEAP”），以最大限度地提高初始资本投资的回报，并提高车辆上市的速度和效率。Lucid 的 LEAP 平台完全由内部设计和开发，与他们的商业模式相符。该平台包括他们标志性的电池组和电池管理软件、电动机、电力电子设备、变速器、控制软件和增压充电器。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inherent Challenges of Operating a World-Class Manufacturing Facility for a Newcomer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对于新来者来说运营世界级制造工厂的固有挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>A Capital-Intensive Effort</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本密集型工作</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, Lucid’s newest Arizona manufacturing facility is a highly capital-intensive project for a new entrant in the EV sector who is already carrying the expensive burden of R&amp;D on their first vehicle. Despite already having previous experience in manufacturing their Formula E battery system in-house in Silicon Valley, the Arizona production plant will be operating on a far grander scale, encompassing both parts production and vehicle assembly. In addition to the $700 million planned investment for building the factory, it will also cost Lucid $1.8 million per year to rent the land on which the factory sits on. Similar to many of recent new entrants within the sector, Lucid has already had its brush with bankruptcy once; the company was ultimately saved by a $1 billion capital injection from&nbsp;Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Since then, the company has been operating according to plan and on track to commencing delivery of the Lucid Air before the end of 2021. Their latest SPAC reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV will also provide the company with $4.4 billion of capital, which will further bolster their liquidity needed for continued development and expansion.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Lucid 在亚利桑那州的最新制造工厂对于电动汽车行业的新进入者来说是一个资本密集型项目，因为他们已经在为自己的第一辆车承担昂贵的研发负担。尽管亚利桑那州生产工厂之前已经拥有在硅谷内部制造电动方程式电池系统的经验，但其运营规模将更大，包括零部件生产和车辆组装。除了计划投资 7 亿美元建设工厂外，Lucid 每年还需要花费 180 万美元租赁工厂所在的土地。与该行业最近的许多新进入者类似，Lucid 已经濒临破产过一次；沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金向该公司注资 10 亿美元，最终挽救了该公司的生命。此后，该公司一直按计划运营，并有望在2021年底前开始交付Lucid Air。他们最近与 Churchill Capital Corp IV 的 SPAC 反向合并也将为该公司提供 44 亿美元的资本，这将进一步增强其持续发展和扩张所需的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Limited Target Audience</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有限的目标受众</b></blockquote></p><p> Lucid has also positioned itself as a luxury premium EV maker that caters to a niche market within the already-competitive landscape, which further narrows their market share. However, it is evident that the company has acknowledged this challenge since inception considering the unique offerings featured in the Lucid Air, including a powertrain that enables a travel range of more than 500 miles with one full charge, which differentiates them from others within the same price category.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 还将自己定位为一家豪华高端电动汽车制造商，在竞争激烈的环境中迎合利基市场，这进一步缩小了他们的市场份额。然而，很明显，考虑到 Lucid Air 的独特产品，该公司从一开始就承认了这一挑战，包括一次充满电可行驶超过 500 英里的动力系统，这使它们有别于同一价格范围内的其他产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Diverse Revenue Streams</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多元化收入来源</b></blockquote></p><p> A key competitive advantage for Lucid is their ability to maintain diverse revenue streams. In addition to the production and sales of vehicles, the company is also known for their extensive expertise in developing battery management systems. The global EV battery market is expected to soar in the next five years, with an&nbsp;estimated value of $37.69 million&nbsp;by 2025 due to growing EV sales propelled by the change in consumer attitude and government intervention through financial incentives and strict climate change policies. Lucid plans to leverage their existing expertise and capitalize on the future growth opportunities brought forth by the electrification wave, including the development of an “Energy Storage System” (“ESS”). ESS leverages Lucid’s existing battery and power electronics technologies, which allows the company to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 的一个关键竞争优势是他们维持多元化收入来源的能力。除了生产和销售车辆，该公司还因其在开发电池管理系统方面的丰富专业知识而闻名。全球电动汽车电池市场预计将在未来五年内飙升，到2025年估计价值将达到3769万美元，原因是消费者态度的变化以及政府通过金融激励和严格的气候变化政策进行干预推动了电动汽车销量的增长。Lucid计划利用他们现有的专业知识，并利用电气化浪潮带来的未来增长机会，包括开发“储能系统”（“ESS”）。ESS 利用 Lucid 现有的电池和电力电子技术，使公司能够最大限度地提高已部署的资本投资回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Lucid is also an ongoing supplier of battery packs and software for all OEM racing teams in Formula E. The company plans to evolve their existing battery technology to widen the range of its compatibility with other products, including aircrafts, eVTOL, and other commercial machinery. The growth opportunity would be easily executable through mass production at their new battery manufacturing plant, LPM-1, in the Arizona factory. Again, the opportunity would allow Lucid to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed in both developing their state-of-the-art battery systems and construction of their battery manufacturing plant.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 也是电动方程式赛车所有 OEM 车队的电池组和软件的持续供应商。该公司计划发展现有的电池技术，以扩大其与其他产品的兼容性范围，包括飞机、电动垂直起降和其他商用机械。通过在亚利桑那州工厂的新电池制造厂 LPM-1 进行大规模生产，可以轻松实现这一增长机会。同样，这一机会将使 Lucid 能够最大限度地提高其资本投资的回报，这些资本投资已用于开发最先进的电池系统和建设电池制造厂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has yet to release any public filings of their complete financial records. However, the latest Analyst Day Presentation indicates that the company has secured more than 9,000 reservations of the Lucid Air to date, with 500 units of which representing the limited production Dream Edition model currently priced at a premium of $169,900 and fully reserved, which indicates robust demand and increasing customer traction. This translates to revenues of at least $84.95 million generated from the Lucid Air Dream Edition, and $657.9 million from other Lucid Air models based on the conservative assumption that they are all base models priced at $77,400. It is worth noting that current reservations are fully cancellable and refundable; however, even if actual sales drop 10% from the number of current reservations, the company is still expected to generate total revenues of at least $712.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未公布其完整财务记录的任何公开文件。然而，最新的分析师日演示表明，该公司迄今为止已获得超过 9,000 辆 Lucid Air 预订，其中 500 辆代表限量生产的梦想版车型，目前的溢价为 169,900 美元，已全部预订，这表明需求强劲，客户吸引力不断增加。这意味着 Lucid Air Dream Edition 的收入至少为 8495 万美元，其他 Lucid Air 型号的收入为 6.579 亿美元，保守假设它们都是售价为 77,400 美元的基本型号。值得注意的是，目前的预订是完全可以取消和退款的；然而，即使实际销售额比当前预订数量下降10%，该公司仍有望产生至少7.126亿美元的总收入。</blockquote></p><p> We are predicting revenues of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2022 considering a full year of productions and sales of the Lucid Air, consistent with management’s forecasts within the Analyst Day Presentation. Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% to 40% into 2030 considering Lucid’s expanding portfolio of premium-priced vehicles, combined with a&nbsp;global sales footprint&nbsp;across North America, Europe and the Middle East. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $631 million to $915 million by 2025 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到 Lucid Air 全年的生产和销售，我们预测 2022 年收入将达到 22 亿至 23 亿美元，这与管理层在分析师日演讲中的预测一致。考虑到 Lucid 不断扩大的高价汽车产品组合，以及遍布北美、欧洲和中东的全球销售足迹，预计到 2030 年，总收入将以 30% 至 40% 的复合年增长率增长。我们预计，随着消费者需求和品牌接受度的提高，到 2025 年，该公司将开始实现 6.31 亿至 9.15 亿美元的利润。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e5729ab372255e42956fd0c35a91f50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b6ba74ec468be67491e2e1dc942f22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>iii. 熊市财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b194fbb93dd81b6c79120ef86df6fd7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and ourinternal financial forecasts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c375cacc8c0978717e14611659a9e7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (LCID_-_Valuation.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值模型（LCID_-_Valuation.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on the above analysis on Lucid’s current reservation rates and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $9.6 billion (base case) to $14.1 billion (bull case), which translates to $36.54 and $53.83 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 55% to 129% based on the last traded price of $23.55 on June 2nd.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述对 Lucid 当前预订率和增长前景的分析，我们对该业务的估值得出的股权价值约为 96 亿美元（基本情况）至 141 亿美元（牛市情况），相当于每股 36.54 美元和 53.83 美元。基于 6 月 2 日最后交易价格 23.55 美元，这意味着大约 55% 至 129% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估价：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f41f8b2bd3382a38f13d4cac18f3ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Bull Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、牛市估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e505e76632b9ca8142c4238a345f7eb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>iii. Bear Case Valuation:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>三、熊案例估值：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df96ba5195d156c938f941d22d9f89c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and our internal valuation model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 2021 年 5 月分析师日演示和我们的内部估值模型。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Lucid Motors Vs. Fisker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：Lucid Motors 与 Fisker</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on our analysis, both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the up-and-coming era of global transition to EVs. Despite operating under business models on two extremes, both Fisker and Lucid show capability in countering the inherent disadvantages of their respective business models with unique offerings. Fisker’s asset-lean business model allows for higher capital deployment to other areas deemed more critical for enhancing customer service, and lower production costs to provide affordable pricing for buyers, while Lucid’s capital-intensive and vertically integrated strategy is compensated by greater operational and cost efficiencies achievable through economies of scale thanks to their cross-compatible, state-of-the-art battery technology. Both companies will also be catering to the needs of different markets – Fisker’s top selling point is affordability, while Lucid is positioned to satisfy the needs of those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Both companies intend to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience, with showrooms and experience centers to open across the U.S. and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的分析，两家公司都处于有利地位，可以利用全球向电动汽车转型的新兴时代。尽管在两个极端的商业模式下运营，Fisker和Lucid都表现出了通过独特产品来对抗各自商业模式固有劣势的能力。Fisker 的资产精益商业模式允许将更高的资本部署到其他被认为对增强客户服务更重要的领域，并降低生产成本，为买家提供负担得起的价格，而 Lucid 的资本密集型和垂直一体化战略则通过交叉兼容、最先进的电池技术通过规模经济实现更高的运营和成本效率来弥补。两家公司还将迎合不同市场的需求--Fisker 的最大卖点是价格实惠，而 Lucid 的定位是满足那些追求奢华而不奢侈体验的人的需求。两家公司都打算采用直销策略来最大限度地提高客户体验，并在美国和欧洲开设展厅和体验中心。</blockquote></p><p> Although our valuation shows Fisker yielding a slightly higher upside potential than Lucid, we believe the latter makes a safer investment in the near-term given the Lucid Air has already entered the production stage with strong reservation rates and deliveries expected to commence before the end of the year, while the Fisker Ocean is still in testing phase, with core technical features yet to be announced to the public and start of production still 18 months out. However, we are confident that both EV makers are equipped with the talent and resources to excel in the industry in the long-run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们的估值显示 Fisker 的上涨潜力略高于 Lucid，但我们相信后者在短期内进行了更安全的投资，因为 Lucid Air 已经进入生产阶段，预计将在年底前开始交付，而 Fisker Ocean 仍处于测试阶段，核心技术功能尚未向公众公布，距离投产还有 18 个月。然而，我们相信，从长远来看，两家电动汽车制造商都具备在行业中脱颖而出的人才和资源。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433105-lucid-motors-fisker-better-ev-stock-buy\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克","LCDX":"CALIBER IMAGING & DIAGNOSTICS INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433105-lucid-motors-fisker-better-ev-stock-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153560369","content_text":"Summary\n\nElectric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth of 43% year-over-year observed in 2020.\nEurope is expected to have more than 300 EV models by 2025, while the U.S. is expected to have more than 130 EV models by 2026.\nTwo of the up-and-coming EV startups include Lucid Motors and Fisker, both California-based with production and delivery expected by the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively.\nWe believe both companies are undervalued at the moment, with significant upside potential of more than 150%.\n\nPhoto by domin_domin/E+ via Getty Images\nElectric vehicles (“EVs”) have emerged into the spotlight in recent years, with robust sales growth observed in 2020 despite a slump in global automotive sales due to COVID-related impacts. Instead of being overshadowed by the on-and-off lockdowns and lingering wariness of economic uncertainty, global EV sales continued its growth momentum in 2020,rising 43% year-over-year while overall automotive sales dropped by 20%. The evolving consumer sentiment on EVs resulting from increasing affordability and practicality thanks to technological advancements, combined with government intervention through subsidies and climate change policies are expected to supercharge the EV sales figures further within the decade; EV sales are expected to exceed 31.1 million units and represent 32% of global new car sales by 2030.\nThe next decade will be an era of electrification with significant opportunities for the sector as EVs take the center stage. The European Federation for Transport and Environment predicts more than 300 available EV models within the European automotive market by 2025, while the IHS Markit predicts more than 130 available EV models in the U.S. by 2026.\nTwo of the up and coming brands to break into the U.S. and European EV market include Lucid Motors ((NYSE:CCIV)or “Lucid”) and Fisker(NYSE:FSR). The two California-based companies have already debuted their respective flagship vehicles with reservations now open; initial deliveries are expected in late 2021 for Lucid and late 2022 for Fisker. In addition to their astonishing vehicles, both stock picks have also been showstoppers in the latest tech rally, with share prices peaking at 187% for Fisker and 480% for Lucid since their respective IPO and pre-IPO announcements.\nFisker Inc.\nSource:fiskerinc.com\nLaunched in 2016, the Southern California-based EV maker builds its brand on the mission to provide a “clean future for all” by creating the “world’s most emotional and sustainable vehicles”. The company is currently led by co-founders Henrik Fisker and Dr. Geeta Gupta-Fisker, alongside a strong executive team with years of industry experience in their respective trades. Henrik Fisker is best known for his disruptive designs within the luxury car sector for notable brands including BMW and Aston Martin. Prior to launching Fisker Inc., Henrik Fisker co-founded “Fisker Automotive”, which was best known for producing the world’s first luxury hybrid supercar, Fisker Karma, before its demise in 2012 due to bankruptcy. Giving the fast-changing sector another shot, the car designer has returned to the arena this time with the lessons from his past experience and an innovative business model – the “asset-lean” approach.\nThe “Asset-Lean Approach”\nFisker’s asset-lean approach entails outsourcing the business components where differentiation is deemed non-essential, including platform engineering, production and assembly, the charging network, and other fleet management services. The business model will not only allow the company to significantly shorten the typical timeline of 60 months, from concept to delivery, to 29 months, but also enable greater capital deployment towards areas critical to customer experience, including design, software, user interface, and advanced driver-assistance systems (“ADAS”). The lowered costs achieved through this business model will also enable Fisker to keep the prices of their vehicles at an affordable range without compromising on quality.\nFisker’s flagship model will be the Fisker Ocean SUV, which is expected to begin production on November 17, 2022 with initial deliveries to be made across Europe and the U.S. before the end next year. As part of the brand’s asset-lean mandate, Fisker has forged a Partnership with Magna Steyr(“Magna”) to co-engineer and produce the Fisker Ocean. The two companies are currently collaborating to create a unique “FM29” platform that will be used as the foundation for their flagship SUV, as well as at least one other Fisker model. By leveraging Magna’s existing technology and established manufacturing facilities, the EV maker will be able to accelerate the timeline of bringing their vehicle to market, while also reducing vehicle development costs. The cross-compatible platform will also allow Fisker to achieve volume pricing on supplies with quality vendors, thus further reducing the costs of building its vehicles to both increase affordability for customers while boosting margins for the company. The Fisker Ocean will be selling at a low entry price of $37,499, with the most premium trims offered at $69,900; combined with a driving range of up to 350 miles, the all-electric SUV trumps its peers within the price category, whose average travel range sits around 250 miles. The Fisker Ocean is aiming to become a “premium with volume” model, with anticipated productions of more than 100,000 units per year.\nA similar approach is also applied to the development and production of their second model,PEAR. Fisker has entered into an agreement with Foxconn– widely known for their production of iPhones in collaboration with Apple – to engineer and produce a brand-new platform for the revolutionary vehicle at a sub-$30,000 price tag. Model details are currently limited, but the new model is expected to feature a unique design and revolutionary experience that will differentiate it from any existing segment of EVs. PEAR’s start of production is slated for Q4 2023, with initial full-year productions expected to hit 250,000 units. The vehicle will first roll out in the U.S. with further expansion into the Chinese, European and Indian markets.\nInherent Risks of Fisker’s Business Model\nSignificant Reliance on Production Partners\nFisker’s business model entails outsourcing a part of their engineering and production processes to third-parties. The company’s substantial reliance on their relationships with third-party manufacturers and suppliers subjects them to significant risks with respect to operations, such as delays caused by quality control issues or capacity constraints. Magna Steyr currently produces for established auto brands including BMW, Daimler, and Jaguar Land Rover. With annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 vehicles, adding Fisker to their production line would mean 50,000 units allocated to each partner of Magna’s on average. Considering Fisker’s call for annual productions of 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean, Magna may be required to drop one of its existing partners, reduce production levels for other customers, or invest in extending their production capacity to meet the performance targets, resulting in high opportunity costs for the manufacturing giant. In order to incentivize their production partner for success of the Ocean program and mitigate the risk of delays caused by capacity constraints, Fisker has offered Magna a 6% stake in the company, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the 2020 10K).\nThe same risks apply to Fisker’s partnership with Foxconn to produce PEAR. Foxconn has no prior experience in the manufacturing process of vehicles, which subjects Fisker to potential risks related to quality control and delays. Foxconn is one of the many existing manufacturing industry veterans who have recently started to tap into the OEM opportunities within the growing EV sector. The electronics manufacturer plans to convert its idle plant in Wisconsin to facilitate their EV production ambitions. While Fisker intends to leverage Foxconn’s manufacturing expertise, Foxconn seeks to utilize the experience from producing Fisker’s EVs to pave its way into the larger EV market, with plans to produce EVs for other companies using the same platform in the long-run. Despite Foxconn’s lack of experience in EV production, the partners hope to take advantage of their “minimal automotive legacy to enable a full clean-sheet approach in all aspects”, and compete against experienced car manufacturers who may be restricted by the burden of existing contracts.\nExposure to Inconsistency in Product Quality\nWorking with multiple partners may also expose the company to inconsistency in the quality of their vehicles, and ultimately impact consumer confidence in the brand. In the unfortunate event that a jointly manufactured vehicle with one partner becomes faulty, it could significantly damage Fisker’s reputation and consumer confidence in the brand.\nIn addition, consumers may start to take interest in the respective Fisker vehicle’s production partners, given the collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model compared to other brands whose manufacturers are seldom broadcasted as part of the marketing strategy. The highly collaborative nature of Fisker’s business model may cause consumers to start weighing their purchase decisions on the quality and reputation of the manufacturers instead of the brand, which strips Fisker of its credit in the development process of its vehicles.\nOverly Aggressive Targets\nAs mentioned above, Fisker plans to produce at least 100,000 units of the Fisker Ocean on an annual basis, and 250,000 units of PEAR within the first full year of productions. However, these high figures draw curiosity on whether they are reasonably achievable. Under these production targets, Fisker would produce approximately 350,000 units of their vehicles by 2024. This would represent a 7% market share based on forecasted EV sales of 6.2 million units by 2024, which is substantial for an EV startup after just two full years of operations with only two models available for sale. And in comparison to the globally recognized industry leader, Tesla, the assumed 7% market share would be double of Tesla’s global EV sales market share achieved in 2020 of close to 4%. Even if Fisker can offer customers with a pricing advantage, it would be challenging to achieve a 7% market share of global EV sales, especially given the large influx of competing models that will be introduced in the next few years. Based on our consideration of Fisker and their operating partners’ production capacities and anticipated EV demands, we believe these sales volume forecasts would more likely be achieved by 2026.\nFinancial Outlook\nFollowing Fisker’s IPO through a SPAC reverse merger sponsored by Spartan Energy Acquisition in October 2020, the company received $1 billion in capital injections, which was just the right amount needed to develop and produce the Fisker Ocean SUV according to Fisker’s business plans. With start of productions for the Fisker Ocean just 18 months out, the company continues to execute the development process according to plan and within budget, ending the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $985.4 million while maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. And with the newest PEAR model, the company does not anticipate significant capital investments until 2023, which they plan to partially fund with cash generated from operations through Fisker Ocean sales, in addition to external financing obtained from either debt or equity issuances.\nWe are predicting revenues of $1.2 to $1.4 billion by 2023, generated primarily from sales of approximately 20,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs following its first full year in the market, and a small volume of the PEAR model given its expected deliveries starting Q4 2023. Our forecasts predict a lower sales volume for the flagship SUV that is on par with recent electric SUV launches observed across the European and the U.S. EV market. We believe Fisker will achieve their annual production target for the Fisker Ocean of 100,000 units in late 2025 or early 2026 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.\nTotal revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 30% into 2030 considering Fisker’s continued expansion beyond the American and European markets and into the Chinese and Indian markets, as well as the anticipated growth in sales volumes with the launch of two other models in addition to the Fisker Ocean and PEAR model before 2025. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $157 million to $285 million by 2024 championed by continued sales growth, and a lifetime gross profit margin between 19% and 25% based on Fisker’s business plan.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecasts:\n\nii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:\n\niii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:\nSource: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and ourinternal financial forecasts.\nValuation\nAuthor, with data from our internal valuation model\nBased on the above analysis on Fisker’s fundamentals and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $4.6 billion (base case) to $10.3 billion (bull case), which translates to $16.29 and $36.94 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 11% to 151% based on the last traded price of $14.69 on June 2nd.\ni. Base Case Valuation:\n\nii. Bull Case Valuation:\n\niii. Bear Case Valuation:\nSource: Author, with data from the 2020 and 2021 Fisker Inc. Annual and Interim Reports and our internal valuation model.\nLucid Motors Inc.\nSource:lucidmotors.com\nFounded in 2007, Lucid Motors was previously known as Atieva, a notable manufacturer of EV batteries and powertrains. In 2016, the company officially rebranded to Lucid Motors under the leadership of Peter Rawlinson, former Chief Vehicle Engineer at Tesla. Currently the CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson led the company to developing the first Formula-E battery pack capable of powering the cars for the entire race. The technology was later evolved into the battery pack now used in the Lucid Air, the automaker’s flagship luxury electric sedan introduced in late 2016.\nThe company builds its success on a commitment to develop a world-class, high-performance EV. The Lucid Air’s powertrain is capable of more than 500 miles in range with a full charge, setting a record-high standard for the industry. In addition to their world-class battery technology, the company also operates under the core belief that the future will be tech-driven, and this is what will differentiate them from the surge of new EV models produced by traditional automakers just to satisfy evolving consumer demands. Similar to Fisker’s vehicles, Lucid has prioritized connectivity within their vehicles, offering over-the-air updates to car owners at ease. The company’s vehicles are also equipped with advanced ADAS features like automatic emergency braking, cross-traffic alerts, and a driver monitoring system; level 3 autonomous driving features are also expected to roll out through over-the-air updates when testing is complete with regulatory approval achieved. The Lucid Air will also be one of the first EVs to incorporate facial ID recognition, which will be integrated with predictive analytics technology within the vehicle to automatically load profiles and preferences that are preset or learned over time based on the driver’s behaviour.\nThe brand is currently positioned for the “post-luxury” market, which Lucid defines as those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Lucid is not afraid to put a premium on their flagship vehicle, which is equipped with some of the most advanced technologies along with a premium exterior and interior composition – the Lucid Air is priced from $77,400 for the base model to $169,000 for the top-tier Dream Edition.\nA Highly Integrated Automaker\nIn contrast to Fisker, Lucid builds its business on a highly integrated model. Lucid performs their own in-house R&D for almost every aspect of its vehicles, including the powertrain, battery technology, infotainment, HVAC, integrated safety, chassis, and ADAS systems. The automaker will also internalize the EV production process at their Arizona manufacturing facility – the first of its kind in North America. The Arizona manufacturing facility will comprise of multiple components, including the “Advanced Manufacturing Plant” (“AMP-1”) which is currently producing the Lucid Air. Phase two expansion is also well underway for AMP-1 as Lucid prepares for the production of their premiere SUV,Project Gravity. Production capacity at AMP-1 is currently 30,000 units per year, and will expand up to 400,000 units per year as sales volumes ramp up with more models added to the line-up. The Arizona manufacturing facility will also house the “Lucid Powertrain Manufacturing Plant” (“LPM-1”), which is where Lucid will be manufacturing their powertrain technology, including battery packs, electric motors, and in-home charging units. Although a capital-intensive project for an EV start-up, the Arizona manufacturing facility will allow greater operational and cost efficiencies for Lucid through vertical integration, as well as greater control over quality and consistency of outputs.\nSimilar to Fisker, Lucid plans to reuse their engineered platform, the “Lucid Electric Advanced Platform” (“LEAP”), on other vehicle variants to maximize return on their initial capital investments, and enable greater speed and efficiency in bringing their vehicles to market. And true to their business model, Lucid’s LEAP platform is designed and developed fully in-house. The platform includes their signature battery pack and battery management software, electric motors, power electronics, transmission, control software, and boost charger.\nInherent Challenges of Operating a World-Class Manufacturing Facility for a Newcomer\nA Capital-Intensive Effort\nAs mentioned above, Lucid’s newest Arizona manufacturing facility is a highly capital-intensive project for a new entrant in the EV sector who is already carrying the expensive burden of R&D on their first vehicle. Despite already having previous experience in manufacturing their Formula E battery system in-house in Silicon Valley, the Arizona production plant will be operating on a far grander scale, encompassing both parts production and vehicle assembly. In addition to the $700 million planned investment for building the factory, it will also cost Lucid $1.8 million per year to rent the land on which the factory sits on. Similar to many of recent new entrants within the sector, Lucid has already had its brush with bankruptcy once; the company was ultimately saved by a $1 billion capital injection from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Since then, the company has been operating according to plan and on track to commencing delivery of the Lucid Air before the end of 2021. Their latest SPAC reverse merger with Churchill Capital Corp IV will also provide the company with $4.4 billion of capital, which will further bolster their liquidity needed for continued development and expansion.\nA Limited Target Audience\nLucid has also positioned itself as a luxury premium EV maker that caters to a niche market within the already-competitive landscape, which further narrows their market share. However, it is evident that the company has acknowledged this challenge since inception considering the unique offerings featured in the Lucid Air, including a powertrain that enables a travel range of more than 500 miles with one full charge, which differentiates them from others within the same price category.\nDiverse Revenue Streams\nA key competitive advantage for Lucid is their ability to maintain diverse revenue streams. In addition to the production and sales of vehicles, the company is also known for their extensive expertise in developing battery management systems. The global EV battery market is expected to soar in the next five years, with an estimated value of $37.69 million by 2025 due to growing EV sales propelled by the change in consumer attitude and government intervention through financial incentives and strict climate change policies. Lucid plans to leverage their existing expertise and capitalize on the future growth opportunities brought forth by the electrification wave, including the development of an “Energy Storage System” (“ESS”). ESS leverages Lucid’s existing battery and power electronics technologies, which allows the company to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed.\nLucid is also an ongoing supplier of battery packs and software for all OEM racing teams in Formula E. The company plans to evolve their existing battery technology to widen the range of its compatibility with other products, including aircrafts, eVTOL, and other commercial machinery. The growth opportunity would be easily executable through mass production at their new battery manufacturing plant, LPM-1, in the Arizona factory. Again, the opportunity would allow Lucid to maximize return on their capital investments already deployed in both developing their state-of-the-art battery systems and construction of their battery manufacturing plant.\nFinancial Performance\nThe company has yet to release any public filings of their complete financial records. However, the latest Analyst Day Presentation indicates that the company has secured more than 9,000 reservations of the Lucid Air to date, with 500 units of which representing the limited production Dream Edition model currently priced at a premium of $169,900 and fully reserved, which indicates robust demand and increasing customer traction. This translates to revenues of at least $84.95 million generated from the Lucid Air Dream Edition, and $657.9 million from other Lucid Air models based on the conservative assumption that they are all base models priced at $77,400. It is worth noting that current reservations are fully cancellable and refundable; however, even if actual sales drop 10% from the number of current reservations, the company is still expected to generate total revenues of at least $712.6 million.\nWe are predicting revenues of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion in 2022 considering a full year of productions and sales of the Lucid Air, consistent with management’s forecasts within the Analyst Day Presentation. Total revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% to 40% into 2030 considering Lucid’s expanding portfolio of premium-priced vehicles, combined with a global sales footprint across North America, Europe and the Middle East. We are expecting the company to start realizing profits of between $631 million to $915 million by 2025 as consumer demand and brand reception ramps up.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecasts:\n\nii. Bull Case Financial Forecasts:\n\niii. Bear Case Financial Forecasts:\nSource: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and ourinternal financial forecasts\nValuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation model (LCID_-_Valuation.pdf).\nBased on the above analysis on Lucid’s current reservation rates and growth prospects, our valuation for the business yields an equity value of approximately $9.6 billion (base case) to $14.1 billion (bull case), which translates to $36.54 and $53.83 per share. This represents an upside potential of approximately 55% to 129% based on the last traded price of $23.55 on June 2nd.\ni. Base Case Valuation:\n\nii. Bull Case Valuation:\n\niii. Bear Case Valuation:\nSource: Author, with data from the May 2021 Analyst Day Presentation and our internal valuation model.\nConclusion: Lucid Motors Vs. Fisker\nBased on our analysis, both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the up-and-coming era of global transition to EVs. Despite operating under business models on two extremes, both Fisker and Lucid show capability in countering the inherent disadvantages of their respective business models with unique offerings. Fisker’s asset-lean business model allows for higher capital deployment to other areas deemed more critical for enhancing customer service, and lower production costs to provide affordable pricing for buyers, while Lucid’s capital-intensive and vertically integrated strategy is compensated by greater operational and cost efficiencies achievable through economies of scale thanks to their cross-compatible, state-of-the-art battery technology. Both companies will also be catering to the needs of different markets – Fisker’s top selling point is affordability, while Lucid is positioned to satisfy the needs of those looking for a luxurious yet non-extravagant experience. Both companies intend to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience, with showrooms and experience centers to open across the U.S. and Europe.\nAlthough our valuation shows Fisker yielding a slightly higher upside potential than Lucid, we believe the latter makes a safer investment in the near-term given the Lucid Air has already entered the production stage with strong reservation rates and deliveries expected to commence before the end of the year, while the Fisker Ocean is still in testing phase, with core technical features yet to be announced to the public and start of production still 18 months out. However, we are confident that both EV makers are equipped with the talent and resources to excel in the industry in the long-run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCDX":0.9,"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115617435,"gmtCreate":1622985688327,"gmtModify":1634096405497,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this 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day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113204810","repostId":"1175551284","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177286408,"gmtCreate":1627224050404,"gmtModify":1633767061740,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177286408","repostId":"2154939496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148794191,"gmtCreate":1626014653813,"gmtModify":1633930911244,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你的婚礼","listText":"你的婚礼","text":"你的婚礼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148794191","repostId":"1155854665","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115617978,"gmtCreate":1622985633394,"gmtModify":1634096406197,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115617978","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZME":"掌门教育","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BZ":"BOSS直聘","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZ":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,"MQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,"TASK":0.9,"DIBS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZME":0.9,"LFST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142676209,"gmtCreate":1626149714201,"gmtModify":1633929621253,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142676209","repostId":"1185408592","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114557975,"gmtCreate":1623081801597,"gmtModify":1634037133781,"author":{"id":"3585309216735334","authorId":"3585309216735334","name":"Yukitan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6be1372f28165ab00be430d4082b19","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585309216735334","idStr":"3585309216735334"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114557975","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}